Klaster Penularan

Covid-19
Muh. Firdaus Kasim
Departemen Kedokteran Komunitas & Pencegahan, Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Hasanuddin
Kepala Bidang Penelitian & Inovasi Rumah Sakit Universitas Hasanuddin
 1. Proses Penularan Covid-19
2. Angka Dispersi (k) &
Superspreading Covid-19
3. Analisa Klaster Penularan Covid-
Topik 19
4. Pencegahan Penularan Covid-19
Berdasarkan Analisa Klaster
Proses
Penularan
Covid-19
1/4
 Rute Penularan Utama:
Percikan Dahak (Droplet) &
1,5 m
Sentuhan Permukaan (Fomite)

Surface Detection Time

Plastic Up to 72 hours
Stainless steel Up to 72 hours
Copper < 4 hours
Cardboard < 24 hours
van Doremalen, N. et al. Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-
CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1. N. Engl. J. Med.
NEJMc2004973 (2020). doi:10.1056/NEJMc2004973
 Rute penularan
ketiga: Aerosol

Droplet berukuran 100 μm akan

jatuh ke lantai dalam 4.6 detik
Partikel aerosol berukuran 1 μm
membutuhkan waktu 12.4 jam

Morawska, L. and Cao, J. (2020) ‘Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2: The world should face the reality’, Environment International. doi:
10.1016/j.envint.2020.105730.
Tellier, R. et al. (2019) ‘Recognition of aerosol transmission of infectious agents: A commentary’, BMC Infectious Diseases. BioMed Central
Ltd., pp. 101–101. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-3707-y.
 Risiko Penularan Per Individu

Risiko penularan meningkat

pada 2 hari sebelum gejala
hingga 7 hari paska timbulnya
Semakin tinggi volume suara seseorang, semakin
banyak partikel aerosol yang diproduksi gejala

Asadi, S. et al. (2019) ‘Aerosol emission and superemission during human He, X. et al. (2020) ‘Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and
speech increase with voice loudness’, Scientific Reports. Nature Publishing transmissibility of COVID-19’, Nature Medicine. Nature Research, 26(5),
Group, 9(1), pp. 1–10. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-38808-z. pp. 672–675. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5.
Transmisi Covid-19 dan Pencegahannya

Percikan Jaga
Dahak jarak

Sentuhan Cuci
permukaan tangan

Gunakan
Aerosol
masker
Angka Dispersi (k)
& Superspreading
Covid-19
2/4
Kupferschmidt, K. (2020) ‘Why do
some COVID-19 patients infect
many others, whereas most don’t
spread the virus at all?’, Science.
doi: 10.1126/science.abc8931.
Angka Reproduksi Covid (R0) = 2.6
Seorang penderita rata-rata menularkan ke 2-3 org lain
 Angka Reproduksi

https://www.thebonza.com/das
hboard

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/10/02/352983774/no-seriously-
how-contagious-is-ebola
Angka Dispersi (k)
k = heterogenitas transmisi
Lloyd-Smith, J. O. et al. (2005) ‘Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on
disease emergence’, Nature. Nature Publishing Group, 438(7066), pp. 355–359. doi:
10.1038/nature04153.
 Angka Dispersi (k) Covid-19
(10% penderita menghasilkan 80% dari total kasus)

Endo A, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working
Group, Abbott S et al. Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak
sizes outside China [version 2]. Wellcome Open Res 2020, 5:67 (doi:
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.2)
Analisa Klaster
Penularan
Covid-19
3/4
Lokasi Klaster
Penularan
Covid-19 hingga
20 April 2020

Leclerc, Q. J. et al. (2020) ‘What settings have

been linked to SARS-CoV-2 transmission
clusters?’, Wellcome Open Research. F1000
Research Ltd, 5, p. 83. doi:
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15889.1.
Definisi
Lokasi
Klaster
Penularan
Covid-19

Leclerc, Q. J. et al. (2020) ‘What

settings have been linked to SARS-
CoV-2 transmission clusters?’,
Wellcome Open Research. F1000
Research Ltd, 5, p. 83. doi:
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15889.1
.
Pencegahan
Penularan Covid-
19 Berdasarkan
Analisa Klaster
4/4
Normile, D. (2020) ‘Japan
ends its COVID-19 state of
emergency’, Science.
American Association for the
Advancement of Science
(AAAS). doi:
10.1126/science.abd0092.
Waspada Pada • Qian, H. et al. (2020) ‘Indoor transmission
of SARS-CoV-2’, medRxiv. doi:
10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058.

Area 3-C
• Nishiura, H. et al. (2020) ‘Closed
environments facilitate secondary

Closed Area transmission of coronavirus disease 2019

(COVID-19)’, medRxiv, p.

(Area
2020.02.28.20029272. doi:
10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272.

Tertutup)

Liu, Yuan et al. (2020) ‘Aerodynamic analysis of SARS-

CoV-2 in two Wuhan hospitals’, Nature. Nature
Research, pp. 1–4. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2271-3.
Close
Crowded Contact
(Padat) (Kontak
Erat)
Grafik Modifikasi Udara
pada Peristiwa Klaster
Penularan Restoran di
Guangzhou, Cina,
Januari 2020
Risiko:
1. Area tertutup & modifikasi
udara oleh AC
CLOSED AREA &
2. Duduk selama >30 menit CLOSE CONTACT
(Kontak Erat)
CROWDED &
CLOSE CONTACT

Risiko:
1. Kepadatan
2. Duduk selama > 15 menit
(Kontak Erat)
Diskusi