8 views

Uploaded by imjetztman

- Pertemuan 3-4 - Nilai Harapanxxxx Dan MGF
- 6
- Probability Sampling
- HW1 Solutions
- W0rk Calendar
- HMM Classifier for Human Activity Recognition
- e3e2a73b34be7fd18879ec011aeae697 AUC Calculator and Review of AUC Curve (1)
- Craft of Political Research
- Livro de Metodos Unificados Para Ciencia
- 3rd Wye Conference Announcement Call for Papers
- Cengage-book-list.pdf
- NCTU_Estimation Theory-2015 Fall Final Sol
- Lesson
- Flora Response by 14 Scientists
- Representing Confidence Intervals in Excel
- Tabel
- Homework 5 Solution
- Statictics B.com (1)
- Summer Training Guideline
- Stat Tables

You are on page 1of 5

Gambling

Index

Part A – (Exercise 3)

1. Introduction

2. Simulation

3. Conclusion

Part B – (Exercise 4)

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical approach

i. a

ii. b

iii. c

Part C – (Exercise 5)

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical approach

i. a

ii. b

Part D – (Exercise 6)

Part A - (Exercise 3)

1. Introduction

In this exercise, and also in the following exercises, the European roulette is analysed. Aim

of exercise 3 is to determine the value of k (which stands for the winning amount) and the

value of θ (which stands for the probability of winning) so that it becomes advantageous to

play. To determine these values a simulation (playing 10 games 10000 times) is used.

2. Simulation

After having simulated 10 games 10000 times, the following values have been determined.

θ = 0.4 θ = 0.5 θ = 0.6

k = £0.5 -3.9748 -2.5602 -0.9990

k = £1 -2.0136 -0.0284 1.9758

3. Conclusion

As θ (the probability of winning) increases, the amount of won money increases too even if k

(the winning amount) is constant but at the probability of 0.6, the amount of won money is

still negative (lose). As k increases, the amount of won money increases too even if θ is

constant but the pairs of values of θ and k where it is advantageous to play are 0.6 and 1

respectively.

Part B - (Exercise 4)

1. Introduction

The question stated in exercise 3 applies to exercise 4 but in this part of the report no

simulation is used to determine θ and k. These values are calculated theoretically.

2. Theoretical approach

(a) Calculate the expected win after 1 game in terms of (θ, k).

As the game is played once, the Bernoulli random variable has to be considered.

(b) Using the fact that each game is independent, calculate the expected win after 10

games in term of (θ, k).

(c) For a given value of θ, determine the range of values for k such that

10*[ θ + θ*k - 1] >0

10*θ + 10*k*θ – 10 > 0

10*k*θ > 10 – 10*θ

Part C- (Exercise 5)

1. Introduction

This exercise follows from the previous. The only difference being the generalisation.

Meaning that the game costs £c to play, the prize for winning is £k and the probability of

winning is θ.

1. Theoretical approach

θ*(c + c) – c > 0

θ*(2*c) – c > 0

θ*(2*c) > c

θ > c / (2*c)

Part D - (Exercise 6)

- Pertemuan 3-4 - Nilai Harapanxxxx Dan MGFUploaded bykonokimochid
- 6Uploaded byJenish Kamdar
- Probability SamplingUploaded bymalyn1218
- HW1 SolutionsUploaded byRey Tang
- W0rk CalendarUploaded byjohari
- HMM Classifier for Human Activity RecognitionUploaded bycseij
- e3e2a73b34be7fd18879ec011aeae697 AUC Calculator and Review of AUC Curve (1)Uploaded bySuganthi Aravind
- Craft of Political ResearchUploaded byGegi F Irong
- Livro de Metodos Unificados Para CienciaUploaded byOmar Inácio Benedetti Santos
- 3rd Wye Conference Announcement Call for PapersUploaded byruralcanada
- Cengage-book-list.pdfUploaded bymk10oct
- NCTU_Estimation Theory-2015 Fall Final SolUploaded bybilly
- LessonUploaded byAlejandro Reynoso
- Flora Response by 14 ScientistsUploaded byBSH Admin
- Representing Confidence Intervals in ExcelUploaded byGhoe Wio
- TabelUploaded byIrvan Syahroni
- Homework 5 SolutionUploaded byJung Yoon Song
- Statictics B.com (1)Uploaded byAyush Gupta
- Summer Training GuidelineUploaded byVankishKhosla
- Stat TablesUploaded byRustam Zakirov
- L6-1Advanced Microeconometrics6Uploaded byJoab Dan Valdivia Coria
- enggUploaded byVibhuti Narayan
- RESULTADOS CATAPULTAUploaded byItziar Lopez-Vailo Madina
- Lock_JSM_2010.pptxUploaded byJacob Huston
- Pruebas2Uploaded bymanarrito1988
- Lect14Uploaded byBernice Anne Darvin
- Guide Line of ThesisUploaded byMukhtaar Case
- stastical tecniques in business managemnt applicationUploaded bysireesha_kongara
- BA-course 1-8.10.2012Uploaded byIoana Chima
- Introduction to StatisticsUploaded byVinit Thakkar

- Chapter 5 SolUploaded byWasseem T. El-Khatib
- CohenUploaded byjuntujuntu
- Week3 TestUploaded byjeremydb77
- Stats notesUploaded byKasem Ahmed
- 2.Dataset - Acme Realty – Forecasting Home Sales PriceUploaded byRockzz Vedu
- Statistics Success in 20 Minutes a DayUploaded byVishal Joshi
- STA2023Ch08Uploaded byMohamed Med
- ComparisonUploaded byhram_phd
- Channel Coding NotesUploaded byPramath Keny
- Low-Complexity Reliability-Based Message-Passing Decoder Architectures for Non-Binary LDPC Codes.docUploaded byNsrc Nano Scientifc
- Help Sheet for Spss PrntoutsUploaded bySaba Rajpoot
- 03 Failure Distribution r1Uploaded byJie Lucas Tzai
- minka Estimating a Gamma Distribution.pdfUploaded bysitukangsayur
- Basic Elements of Queueing Theory lec notes Philippe NAINUploaded byjoystick2in
- Testing the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for AustraliaUploaded byPhan Anh Thu
- SHS Core_Statistics and Probability CG.pdfUploaded byMarycris Buendia
- Two PopulationsUploaded bySergioDragomiroff
- TG.marketRegimesUploaded byAlexandreLega
- kalmanUploaded byGrindean Ovidiu
- Model Question Paper - TQMUploaded byLeilani Johnson
- Levine Smume6 18Uploaded byer4sall
- lawley hotellingUploaded byiwardhanti
- INST627_Spring2018_SyllabusUploaded byhghaedi66
- t-testUploaded byNiro Thakur
- model_selection-handout.pdfUploaded byRuixi Lin
- Probabilty DistributionsUploaded byK.Prasanth Kumar
- Types of SimulationUploaded byMani Kandan
- 2. Forecasting Methods(1)Uploaded byabril
- Multi Area State Estimation Using Synchronized Phasor MeasurementsUploaded byCamilo Andrés Villarreal Rueda
- Fall2016 Lecture 01Uploaded bySyed Muhammad Danish