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SPC

Calculations for Control LimIts

-NDtation! UCL-Upper Control Limit x '--Average tif Measurements -
LCL-Lower Control Limii l' -Average of Averages
CL --Cenrer Line R -Range
n -Sample Size 11 -Average of Ranges
PCR -Process capability Ratio USL-Upper Specificationl.illlil
a -Proc es , Standard Deviation LSL-Lower SpeciJi.catioD.-LiInit
Variables Data (!" and R Control Charts)
x Control Chart n A2 D, D, d,
UCL",,,+Az,R 2 1.880 0.000 3,26'1 :1.l28j(
LCI,,,, 'i. -AzR 3 -1.(1;13 ' 0,000 2.574 1.693 .
CL= l' 4 0,729 0.000 2.282 2,059
,-, S 0.577 0,000 2,114 2.326
R Control Chart 6 0,483 0,000 2.004 2.53'\"
·Ua-='-R D,---' "" 7 0.419 0,076 ' \,924 2.704
LCL", 1i' Ii] 8 ' 0,373 0.136 \.864 2.M7
CbR , 9 0.337 0.184 1.816 2,970
- " 10 0308 0,22. 1:777 3.078
Capability Study
Cp = (USL - LSL)f( 6 il): where il '" liM._ ..
Attn1>ule Data (p, np, c, and u Control Charts) ,,,,,, c.om.fo f"'; ,-\e5
de.F.t.dll/e.. Control Chart Formulas ' ' 0ef,,-c..1~
Pi~ "P (numb",o! c (count ot ~(COODt~
nOJlC()ofo(1ning) nonc:ooforman=) nonr:ontotmanC nit
...__.
CL P np r 11-
UCL JH3~!(l;jI) - np ... 3-./np(l-p) ~ ... 3$ U+3J!
"
I LCL P~3Jp(l:1l np - 3~'jI(l- p) 1:-3$ ~
i1-3 ;-
Notes: Ifn varies, U5~n n must be n ru.us.tbe Ifllvaries:..Wlen,
Q[ individual "j I! oomtailt • consllID' or individnal nj ! !

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Guide to Univariate Process Monitoring and Control

Other Wiley books by Douglas C. Montgomery. Wobsile: www.wiley.cono/ooIJog<lmo"tgo,,",ry

Engineeritll Statistics, Third EdiUon By M o"'8omery, Runger <IIId H"lnl.

Introduction to engineering statistics, with topical coverage appropriate for a eriesemester CO~= A modest IIlIlWomaticol level. and an applied approach.

Applied Statistic:! and Pro babmty for EDgin..,,.., Third Edition

By MD"lg()m~ry and Rungt:r

In.traduction 10 .n~ stadstics, with topical ccverage appropriate for .idler a oneor two-semester course. iVl appIiad approach to solving real-world engineering problems,

Proba.bility and Slat!stl.cs in Engineering, Fourth Edition By HiP'l~.s. Momgomery. Goldsjrtq!t, .aM Borror

Web.site~ www_ \vil~y.comleoUege.Jhin.es

For a first two-semester course in applied probability and stadstics for undergraduate students, or ill one-semester refrtshet for graduate students, covering probability from the start.

In troducUon te Statistic.l Quality Control, Fifth Edition By Douglas C. M()11lgomeJ'}I

For • firs, OOU<50 in statistical quality control. Statistical techniquee ore emphasized tJu'oughout, with a strong engineering and management orien(ation,

Design and AlLlIlysis of EllperlmenU, Fifth Edition B~ Do«glo' C. M"",g,,""'y

An i1itrodlietion 10 die design Md analysis of experimenta, with Ill. lIl<l<iesll"~roq"i.dte of a first CO'IJl'S~ in statisucal methode.

Introduction to Linear Reg"",,!o. Analysis, Third EdlUOfi By Montgomery. Peel<. and Wn,ng

A ccmpreheuslve and thoroughly cp-ro-daee look at regression analysis, !'tiUlhe meet widely used technique ill ,Wistics today.

Response Surface Methodology: Pree ... and Preduct Oplimlzajjgn Vsinll Designed i

- Experiments, Second Edition I·

By Mye,. and M".lgomery ,

Web,it., www.wil.y.com/co\legeimy..-. :.

The exploration and opdm.iz.ation of response surfaces, for grad,uale courses in experimental design, and for applied statisticians, engineers. snd chemical and phYSlcai scienti:n:s.

Go,..ralized LiD •• r Models: WlIh AppllcotioDS ill Engineering aed the Science, Dy MytrJ. M omgomet')\. and Wning

. Website; wwwwileyccm/college/myers

An inll'Oduetory te .. or reference on Generalized linoHf Mo<l," (GLMs). The ""I" of lheoreticailOpi<:. and applicatio .. appeals both '0 ,tU<i<nq and pra<;olcing professionals.

Introduction to

Statistical Quality

Control

. Fifth Edition

Douglas C. Montgomery An:cona State Uni~.T$i!)'

@

WILBY

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

" ..

About the Author

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DOl]glB.!i C_ Montllomery is the Arizona srare Uoiversil:}' Foundation Professor Of Engineering and Prof",,,,, of Statistics. H. =ived hiJ B.s., M.S., and Pb.D. degrees from VlIlIini. Polyte<:hnlc Institute, ail in "'gin~g. From 1%9 to 1984 be was • f,e· ulty member of !he Soho<>l of lndusttia! II: S~s!ems Bngineering at the G e .!IIXi' Institute of Teohnology: from 1954 10 19B8 he was altho Uni_sity oIW,,",nglll., wcere be hold tho 10M M. Rut, Distingulsbed Cllair of MBnufaelUrin& Engineoring, was P,of"'o, of Mechani<al Engineoring, and was Director of the Prognm in Industtial Enginemng.

Dr. Montgomery has research &nd reaching intuesu in en,iinOl:lring .s.tllitist:i.c.s including statistical qu.alilJ'-control techniques, design of CXporimeJlIS, regression analysis I!U"Jd empitioal modo! bullding, and the epplicaticn of opern.Iions ru,areh methodniogy to prcb!oms in manufectunng sy",,,,,. He h .. authored and co.uthored more than 160 technical pepers in these fields and is an aud:wf of twelVe other books. Dr, Montgomery is a Fellow of the Amone"" Scciety lor Qualil)';' • Fellow of the American S 1O~,Ii.aI ASSociatioD, a FODow of th' Royal S, ... lical Sooi.ty, • F<now of the ""'liMe of lDtIu;stti..>! E~n..,., and an elected member af I:b~ Inu:ma.ti.onal Stati.sti~ lnstinnc:. He is I. Shl:Whart MedaHst of the Am,riCJm Soc;e!)' ror Quali!)', and he bas !Iso received the Brumbaugb Award. the Wi1lliim. G. Hunter A_d, and th. Showell Awillllfrom th' ABQ. H, is •• ecipient of lb. Elli. R. Ocr Award. He ; •• fOlD'" edi"" of the Jou"",i of Q,tall<y T.cluwlDgy, IJ one of the. Cll1l'ellt chief editors of QllQllry rmtl. ReU~bU.ity Enginl'umg IJt1~mm1(J1!lll, !.tid .senrr:s on the OOilOd.al boards of several jOllmals.

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Preface

INTRODUCTION

This bool< i, .bout the USe of moOem ",rui.!tical methoo. for quality cceccl 0Il<I iln_ mcnl- It provides ccmpre.be.usive coverage of the SlJbject from ba&ic principles to s~te-ofthe.~&It concepts and appltcatioue. The objective is to give me reeder II sound understanding of tI!e princlplos and tI!e b,";, for :ipplyitlg til"", in , vorlel)' of situolions. Although ,~tL.tioaI tochniqu .. are emp!wiZ<d through""t, th. boo!< bas • 'irons engineering and l'IIImI,gCmen[ orienwion. Extensive koowlod,e of sta:ti.sdcs is not B. prerequirile for tlslni this book. Rei!Lder.5 whose background intrudes OJ. basie course in :slawtical methods will find much of tI!e ""'lerial in thi:i book easily =.ble,

AUDIENCE

The book is an outgIOWth of over 30 yo"" of teaching. re.....,h. and ootlSulting in the 'Ppli. cation of 'fEliSlleul methods for lndlllttiol problems.!! .. designed as n textbook for ~nu enrolled in ooJ.)ege;s and univeISities. who .are .sbldying C['lgi~gl !tatistics. managanent, and rolled fields' and ore tBking ,; first """'''' In ,t>listic:al quallty control, The bwic quolity-<1lOllrol c:otU" is often caugh' at the junior or senio.. level. All of IIIe ,UlIldi!ld topics for !hi> ootl.rSO are, covered in druil, Some """" edwnood m.1OdlII is abo ,vailable in the book, and tbil .ouid b. wed with advanced uo<lergn!duote.s Who have hed ",mo p<eviO\l5 exposure: to the basics or in IS. course aitned at gmdorue :rnWents. I have also used the teXt "",1t<ial$ extensively in programs lOt l"ofe,siooall"&CtIllon=. inCIudiDg quali'J' and reIi.bility .... rs, 'fWlIlfilOlUring and dev'lop"",", engineers, product d es i_", tnaIIBgCrn. ~"",,,m.nt 9jl<Oia&u, ~ pors""",~ tectmkian, and labor1!t<>ry analy.lI. Icspector s, and "P'rlllDl>. Many ...,f ... jonall: have also wad IIle IDlIIerial for ,elf-study.

CHAPTER ORGANIZATION AND TOPICA} COVERAGE

Chnpter I is .. iDrroooction to tI!e pltlloSQPhy and basic concepl$ of quality imprcvem,nt, Itncrea that. quality has become u major business strategy and that OX'ganizatfO'M ihB.t sueceoofnlly improYe quality can in""' .... thcit productivity. enhance theil _ penetration. and achieve greater profitability and a strong ccmperirive IIdvantage. Soms of tI!e maoagcrial and lmplementadon upeets of qUlIllty imprnvemont .... included.,

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Follllwing the -1ll"0<}' chap"'r, the boo)( U <Ii.idod ;,,!O five pOrts. PIm I is ad .. cription of statisticalll1Olho<ls useful in quallty improvement Topics oovored iIJclucie """POOl and descriptive s<atist!cs. !he basic no<lon, .rprobability and'p<obBbillty di,m· betio ... point and interval .,timn!ion of poir_. &.lid "awtical hypothesi< ""tiog. These topics are usually covered in .a besic COIl1'le in .stansdcai methods; bnwever, their presentation in this text is from the: qualiry-en_gineering viewpoint. My apaien~ nes been tho! even reaoers with a s trong '''ti,tioal b .. kground will find the epprooch to this material uscful and somewhat dlfferent from a .9landard smtlsties textbook.

Port n oonalm fOIl< chapterS covering the basic IlIOIIlode of sta ti.s<ica1 II=" control (SPC) and .".thod, for p<oces, capability analysis. Eve. ",,",gh several SPC problem. BOivin, tools are discussed (i!l<llading Pareto cherts, c8U .. ·and~ffoc1 dingra"", for .. ample), the pdmiI}' focus in this ""roon is on th. SheWhon control chon. The Showhan cona-ol chart is oerminJy not new, but its ~se in modem-day busilless and industry is of tr~(ne.ndou.!i vejue.

There are fo..- chapt." in Pan ill that present 'OIl1C mort advanced SPC ""'thods.

Included "'" me CIlIJlI\lorlv. sum and tXP"l""'tlally woJ ghtod O!<Wing ."""~, control charts (Chaptor 8). .ovual important univariate o"""oJ charts ,och as procedures for short production run" anroccrrelated dnta. and multiple stream processes (Chop'" 9). mulli· varinte prcc ... monit<lring and ecneoi (Cbaptet 10). and feedback '<Ii"'''''""t oochnlq." (Chapter Il). Some of thi. marorial i •• t n high", lovel than Pan Il, but much of it i, 1Il:Oe.. oIblo by """"""'0 ondorgr,duo"" or lintcy= grJld""te sordents. Thi, matedal fonD. th. basi:!; of a second course in. Statistical qualH~ control atJd improvement-for this audience.

Pan rv contBim "'" cheprera !hat mow hew stawdcolly designed apedmontl caa be Ilsed for prooos. design, d"ve.lopmoo~ and improvement. Chapter 12 presents <he torulamemal cencepes of .esigned experiments and !nt<odo<:C.! the reeder to fact<>rial and fulc. ficual factorW designs, with parncul ... ompbasi. on tile two-l<ve.l .ylttom of dcigns .. These d"i8Ds are.>:<I ex<en3ivoJY ;" indu"'Y for fae<or =eenillg and proce .. char .. terization. Although the ll"eatm.ent of the: :subjl:Ct is net extensi~ and is no su bstittlte fOr iI formal eeurse in exp<riUleDtal design. it will enahle til. reader to "pprec.i.,,, mere sophis' tic,red example, of experimon"sl design, Chapo:r 13 intro<luces response aurface method, and dcsigc,. illustIlltes .""lutionary operadcn (EYO!') far precess monitoring, .. d show< bow sCIltisticlill)l designed experiIm:nl$ can be used foc process rcbnsmees .at:u.di~5. <:haptet> 12 and 13 emphasize the imponant intenel>tionsbip between .tatistiJ:al process coermt and expetimontll design for proc .. , lm,provement

. 'lWn chapterS deal with accept .. ce ,ampling in Part Y. Th. focus i. on Jot-by-Jot accepOUlCe sempllng, aIlbough.!hero is some discu.sion of oontiDuou, samplina"'o MIL SID 1235C in Chepcer 14. Oth."ampling topics presented include "ano ... spects of the d.sign of accepcance.5OQlpling pI ...... di,cu,sio. of MIL sm lOSE, MIL SID 414 (and th,ircMlian """oterpart<.ANSIIASQC ZJ.4 llloANSlIASQCZ1.9), and other "chniqoos such as chain 'amp!ing and .l<ip-lot ....,pling.

Throughoer tho book, guldelin .. lIl' gi_ for ",loetiog th, proper typo of ,tatistical tecbnlqee to use in a. wide vadety of sllUltioQ&.. Additionally eJ.te"n,iY~ rereeeeees 10 journal article> and othor technicalli«tature ,1I.old assist <be reeder in applying the methods descnbea.

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SUPPORTING 'rsxr MATERIALS

Computer .Software

The ccmputer play> ... important role in • modem qualiry-dlll1lCl <our se, This edition of the book uses Mini'o!> as tho primary ilIus""",,o ~ pOcl<qe, In.UU<:ttIr. ""'y order this book with a smdem version of Minimb in::luded. I sttongly recommend !hili the course haw a meaningful computiog oomponent Ttl 'equest this bool< witll Minitab incbJd«l, contact )'OUr lccal Wiley representative, YO" can find )'CUr Iccal Wiley tepr'esenradve by JIOillg'" www,wil,y.comand clicking on <he tot> fur ''Wbo~ My Rep?".

I hove written •• et of sU.pplomontal_aI tollngm.ent many t>f the ollopterS in ",e book. The 'upplemcn!al material contains topics <bill I coojd !1OI ... iJy fit into thlt wpter with. out =lou,ly di=p!ing <he Oow. The topics lIt shown in the Tabl. of Contents for the book and in·th, individual chapter outlines. Some of this moterial corts1aoi ofproof, order. ivari.c:Jm, new topics of 8: (50met:im") more. ad"Yal'lCed nature. mpporting details concern. ing =ms or concepts Pl'I',ont<d 1.0 the tOJ<~ and owwer. to freqIlently asked qu .. rion>. The .upplement>1 moterial provides an intuestiog s .. of ..,COOIplltIying ",.din~, tbr anyone <mlOl'" about the field. It is "oil,ble en lbe World Wid. Web P'~ thot supportS tho book, Joc:at<d at WWw.wiley:oomicollegolmcntgomery.

Student R .. cwee Manllal

The text oontain.s ""' .. ,or. 10 1110!1 01· <he odd·.umbered exercise., A Student Reseurce MRrlUal I, ...nabl. from Jolm Wiley & Son, that pre".", =np"-"=Iw mnolllted sol utioc& to tItc&. same odd-numbeted proIllelllS. This is an ""cou.., ... dy aI<1 that many text u'"" will find extremely helpful. The Student Resource Manual may be "rdcrod in a set with the ..., or ~ sepa<tltely. Contaa YO"- local Wiley .........",."rlw to reques! the ." far l"'U! bcnkstnre or pun;has. the Student Ro$OOJ!CO Manual from the Wiley website,

Lutmolor'. Moteri.it

The Instructor', secaon of the textbook website COGWM <he foUowing; 1. SaJoriqns 10 the ~t problems

:z. Tho supplemental _ material described 1Ibm.

3. A , ee of Mlcrnso~ PoworPoin, slides to< the basic SPC CO""'

4. Dol," .... from the book, in e),cu-onlc form

The instructor's section. is for wlrue,tor use only and i5 pwwo£G-ptmectec. V15it the In_ CornpBniOO Sit. POniOD of the website, loe.l<d at www.wUey.comkoUegoi muntSatl<;ry, 10 !eli."" fw '1' .. "".001.

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, World Wid. W~b Pogo>

The Web page for Ih. bock is >OCe5sible lhtough the Wiloy Dom' page, It oontoino tbe ,upplOIIl¢!lt!l 10>;1 mnt£riaJ .. d the d;wl ,Ol> ino!=nic form. It will 0100 be Use.J ro ","I jtems of interest to exr users. The webnte adI:lress is w\.Vw_M1e:y..(:om/I::ollet~~, Clicl:". on the cover of the teXt )'011 iUe. using,.

:KNOWLEDGMENTS

Many p<opl. have gene:ro"sly """trillllted tboil: titno and know ledge of smlistiJO, atw:l 'l"aJil)' improvemenl to this book. I "",uld like to thl!l¢ Dr, Bill Woodall. Dr. Doug Howl:i!),. D~ loe Sullivan, D< G'0'80 Runger. Dr, Il<rt ](eats. Dr. Bob Hogg, Mr. Eric Zlegel, Dr. 10< Pignoti<illo, Dr, John Rarnbolg, Dr. Ernie Soni8n, Do Enrique Del Castillo. D< S:uoh SII'''''!' nnd Dr, lim Alloway fur jhelr Ibor<>tlgh IIlld insightful oornrn"'" ""this end. pr<'Iious edid"",. They geno","sly shoJJod many of thoir ideas and teaclll.g expert-

onoes wi'" me, loodItlg !o aubstandal improvemen" in til' --

Over the yean since tOe· IItst edition .,.. published, I have received as """''''' mol ill.", from • greot "''''Y """" people. A complete hoI of colleagues with whom I n.vo. i.'ot· 8C!M would he impOS$1ble to c:c.um~ HoI.Y~1:I;, .901D:; of me m~jOI oonttibuton and. rhciI proie"imt&i aiiilini""' lire as follows: Dr. Mory R. And<:r,on·ll.owland, Ot; Dwayne A. ll.ollier. and 0<. NOIIDIl F. Hubele, _0 State Unl.",ity'. M>: Sey"""" M. Selig. formerly of tile Offie, of Novlllll.ooearciI; Dr. Lynwood A. lohn,o", Dr, Rll",011 G. HoikoS. Dr. David E. Fyffe. and Dr. H, M. Wedowonb. Jr., Ge«gi. lns~tute of '!'>eOnology; Dr. Shililld Pnbbu oM Dr. Robert ll.odrigu<>. ~AS InstitUlo; Dr. Ri<:hm<l L Storeh and Dr, Chri>_ M. M .... >Jli,<lo, UnivCttity of WJ.!hillgron; Dr. Cyntili. A. Lowry, formerty of 'texee CIltisti .. Univero;,y; D10 Smiley Chen~, Dr. John Brewster, Dr. Bci an ~ and D< Red Spi';"g. tho UnlvotSil)' of M_" Dr, Jo .. pf D, Moder. Uni_iI)' of Mi..m; Dr, Fronk B, All, Uoivecity of Morylaod; Dr, Kenneth E. c aae, 0Id0h0"" Sta" U!livmity', 0<. DiIllieI R Mcc....ill e, P< l.i .. C"'''~ Dr. ?aI SpAg<ln. and Mr, Robort S""",, -O!! fcrmerly of NlolOrol.; Dr. Ri<:ll.m Post, lntoJ Corpo_; Dr, Dille S""iof, HybriteclJ; Mt. John A. Bu",,"", Mt. Leon V. Mason. M< Lloyd K. Oo\!irt.l, Ml;, Dan. D, Lesher, Mr, ll.oy E, Do"1, Mr. Mort Fa<ey, Mo. Kathy SO"","r. 1&. Dan F!:i=, Dr, J. S, GOldi-. Mr. Arlelll.os,rur,ter, M< Lolly Morwih, Mr. Ed Schleicher, Mr, Amiin %i_. and M~ Eloin. BIIOcllUe. IBM; Ilk Thomas c. Biot:hom. Ilk K. Did: Vaughn. Mr. Rob<rt LeDoux, Mr.1olto. Billet, Mr, I"". \\'In~ Dr. lulion Anderson, Mr. RiohBrO Alldr<. ."d l& Cba:;, Niolsm The B oeing Compony; MI. Karen Medisol4 Mr. Don Wa\lOo. :wl ME, MUte Go .. , Aloo.; Mr, Han:y pererson-Nedry, ll.idgec=t Viooyards IIllrl The Ch_ Group; Dr, ll.""ell A Boyl ea, (O)rmedy of Prceisioo C1!'I'arts O><porntlon; Dr, Sad!< !(ho!essi and Mr. F,.". Wagner, Sil!'n"tle, Corj>JfOI!on; Mr. U")' Newton nod Mr. C, T. Howlen, Georgi_ Pacific C~.on; Mt. ll.ohen V. Boxl.y, Momanm dJ<mi0&ls; Dr, craig FO>x. Dr. Thoma. i, SII<lool<;y. Mr. )ItneS F. W.Jl<or, and Mr, Iohll Belvin,. The Coee-Cola Company; ME, Bill Wagner ODd M< All'llris,,". Litmn Indumies; M< l"hn M. Pluke, It .. Iohn FI'*" ~ eompany; Dr. P,ul ",bill" fcrrnedy oflBM and SorniteclI: Dr. William DilMom:bel and M~ J"",' 01000, BBN SOft'."'IO Pro<lucts Oo'l"""'~"' I WOI.lld 0)." like 10 _ledg' th,,,,any eoneibcecea of illj' 1,... partner '" Sl;lti"kol

Douglas C. Montgomery T.tmpt'~ A.rlO!:ot1'.a

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Contents

CHAPTERl

Qu.:nUry Im~rrum( in tbl!: Modem Bu.!olJlI!S!;I; Envirol'l1mm 1

CIIopTor Ov<,v;',,,, and L.amlnS OOjective< H Th. Mcanin& or Qwlity ..., QuAli'Y

Iinptlvement 1

t·I.1 Dlmonsioos of Quali'Y 1

I-J.2 Quali'YEngmoorioS"""""'OBY 1-2 A Boo 1!is<oQ' of Q.lIlity Controhnd lmp<m=eot 8.

1-3 s __ Mathodlfor Quality C"",,,,1 and

ImPl"'""""" 11

1-4 __ IAsp<cuofQtla];Jy

lmpm_t 15

1-4,1 Quality Pbilo!<>pby and ~ Su"te&i<s 1~

14.2 TIlt lhil: B_ QualiIY tIIld

ProducIil'lly27 .

1-4.3 Qwillty OJ'" 28

1-4,4 !;;go! Aspe'" 0{ Qnillty 33

1-4.5 1mpIem"'1iA, Qu>Ji<y Imp""'''''''' 3!;

'2-'2 ImpcrtD.Dt Discrete Di5tIibutiOl1s SS

l-2.! Tho Hype<1!«lIJt"Iri<: Dimlllltion 55 2-2.2 The BioKKrtio! m,_ 57

1--2.3 The Poi",", Dilitrib.doo 58

2-2.4 Th. i'u,,", owl ReI,red Di.oibu tWo> 59

2-l Im_ C""IiA_ D~tribullo", ~ :2.-:3.1 '!be: HolD&! DiSb':ibl,nioo 61 1-3.2 Tho Loi"onnaI Di&1nlmdon 66 l-l.l TbeExpono_ Dis_ 69 2-3.4 The Gamma Distribution 10 2-3.5 Tho Wei,,"" Di>trii:lltion 72

z-e Probabilliy 1'10.. 74

2-4.1 No ...... Probablli<y Plo~ 74 2-4.2 O!l!« P>ob,bility I'loIS 76 2-1 Some U,dlll A{:proxlln.t:I:oII< 77

2-5.1 TheBjDOIIlialA~OIl"'the H~77

M.l The PoIs5Cli AWfOXlDl,tiJm to tho Bioomliil 78

2-.5.:3 'IlK:. Notmal Approximation in the Blncmial 78

2-S.4 Comnll::nts CP Apprn.xim.litlrt:5 79

CH.U'TER3

InI.t<ncc, oboOl ~_.. Quolil1 86

Chapter O\le:r'li'icw and leerni:D& Obja:ti?es 86 ~-1 S .. ti&ti", and s.mpliDg D;otrihuo"", 87

3-1.1 Sampti,Q, from a NCII'1IlIlI OisariblJtion 8,8 'l-1.1 Samplin,p; hoo> • BemouiU

Dl<triba~OD 112

'Jr'.3 Sunpllicg from a P~sson Distr:I'btI.tiOIl 92 ]-2 POO!t!lsWn.titm ofP..,.,... ~ 93

3-3 Statiw,al lnf<""'" fot • Single S~ !16

:3-3 . .1 lIUen!:oce en the MeaD of 2'1 fQpulatian. _.Known !n

3-3.1 The Use Of p·VBIlltS !h<H'IJICIh<s~ Te."", lOG

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PARr I

Slali$Uca) Memods U.!Ieil,lll 'n Qu.iiili~ CDnn'Ol and Impro ... ~m~!l1 39

CHAn1I:Rl

Modeling ~tts$. QUIlilY 41

0...,.... 0_;.,. wi Lcornmg Objet<lves 41 2--1 [><sonbing Van,." 41

2~ 1, 1 Th~ Slem~and-l.cal Plot 42 2-1.2 lbe Hl_am 44

2-1.3 Nom";," SU!!I!!IU)' or D,,, 41 2-1.4 Tho BoxP1ot 50

1:1..5 P"",bility Di";bu.ti"", 51

xU eotfTENTs

l-.3~ Inf.c:rcIlc:~.o11 ~I:; Mean of a N"DIlILnl Distribution. Ve:i,UlCI!! Un1mtJ.""n.. 101 3-3.4 hderenel! on the· varluee. of I. Notmai Dmributio. lOS

3.).5 lnhronoo'" P'I'ulaticn PrOPOIUoo 107 ;"3.6 'I1lo Pro....uity of Type II EmIl: ODd

5 ""pl' s~ De~si"", Ie,

3-4 Stati5tiallnfere.nc.1!! for T"WICI Samples. 111

3-4.1 lAfet~ce for a Differencr. in MI::!In:!i. v..;.".,.. KDOWll 113

3...(.2 lnfet't1lCtl far ill Di1faence in MeaD! of TWo NDr.DI.JJ.I DistrtbuDons, Va:r,ianw. U1Ila1Own 116

1.-4.:1 lnfereD~ en tilt Variancea J)[!Wo Normal D"triho~"", ll5

3-4.4 loftlellc:e on Two poputaticm Ptapomo!lS 126

:1,..5 What If'l'b.ele Are More Than Twe. PopwlnlJlu?

The' Aoely.sili Df VarlllClC-e 118 l-S.I .... E<_le 118

;"5.1 The AmIIl"'~ of Variance 130 3.5.3 Cbccl<m. ~on.: ReskI.1Ii

AmIIysii 137

PART II

BQic Ml:thod..s of SDlG5tical Process Corurot !md . Capll.bmt)' AnalysIs 145

cHAPTER~

t&mod. and 1'hi1"''''P''r or S",~ciool Pro""" ConU"cl 141

Chlptl!!r ()vcrView and Uammg Obj.ec:dves 147 4-1 _"CO 148

<--2 Cbance and I\$,jpaIll. Cm es of QuIli'Y Vo,ri"oon 148

4-:3. Swi9Qeal Besls of the Control OJ,m ISO 4-3.1 Basie Prin'ltiplc:s 1$0

+3.1 ChoiJ;c of' CoaU"o-l Limill 158 4--3.3 Sample Sizo ",d S_ling

FroqU<ll<)' 160

4-,),,4 Ratiooal SLlbg:roup& 16:1

4-3..5 .t\lWysis of PlneroI QI:I Ccnsrol CiwtJ 164

4-~.6 Discussioll. of seasUiZing RUles for ConU'Ot 0_ 166

4-03.7 Phase] ead Phase n otCoclRll Chan A.ppcl,i.egrion 168

4--4 Th< Res, of tho ''M';nI!i'"'''' S""",," 16' 4-5 Implomenllni SPC 175

<--6 .... AppliuaOll of SPC ~76

4-1 Noaman1.1lamuing Applicadll',DS of S[!!.liSticsl Pro_ C""""I 183

ClIAI'TER 5

Conn-ol CbrLtU fey Va.rl.abl~ 194

Ch~ Overview and LearJliAg Objectl."I.IeS 194 S·l ",,",duotkm 195

5-2 Coouolo,,,,, for % and R 196

1-:1.1 S-....B .. i.of .... Cb"" 1.96 5-U o..eJopmfDland use of,. ancI

RC,""" 200

5-2.3 0..,. BM«! 0' sWidaId ""'... 212 5-2.4 Io"'l"_on of> and R 0.". 114 .5rl..5 Th~ Eft'cc.t of NIJMO(m&.l.ity an r and

R Co"'" 116

'-2.6 The Op._,-CbamC"'n..i< ",',"00 211

5-l.7 ')be A_ Run ""'Sib I", .... ~Cbort no

5·3 C""trol 0"" fO",' am<! , m

:5~1.~ Cotli'lnu::tion.and Operation of:l' UId ,Cbons m

5-3.2 The ~ ODd, Control 0"" with - Sampl< S;.., 227

,·3.3 Th. s' connol 0"" 23i

5-4 The Sbewlwl C_ 0'" for IDll'IidUll M~rel1M!nt$ 231

5-.\ 'SutJ)JnUj' or P"""""",,, IoU. R •.... 'Co- 242

5-6 ApplicatioOS of VmiAbl es Control Charts 243

CHAPTER 6

CDi'lUOl Cham fcrr A.[[]ibu~ l6S

ChApter~waod.Lr.amil'lgObjl!:cti ... ee 265

6·1 "'''''_ 266

6-2 ~ Control Chan fg( PracliOli. Ncme:Dl'IfLll'rNng

U4

6--2.1 Develop""'" ",d Op',""", of til<

eo_ICIuIrt 168

6-2.2 \'ad.bl. S_,," SI.. l80

6-2.3. NQntnanufa(:m:ril:III Appli.c:ar:iOiUi 184 6alA Tbl! Op!ratill~·CharK(e:r[s1jc :Fifpcti,on and.

Aver"" RUd Length Cakularlo.. 286 6-3 Co""") Chms !Dr NoIlOODfo_

(D<II><tsl 2118

l

6:-.3,1 Proci!ia.'URi5 vd[.b CoI\sO.J:lI SllJ!Iple SL<e 289

6-;.2 """,.d.,.. wiU> Vuiabk Sample • Sin> 298

6-30.3 Demerit" SY5u:ms 300 6-3.A ']"be Op~~g..Chara.c:1erim F,ooIiDn 311l

6-3.5 De&IldK wiIh Low DeIC" r.e .. I. 304 6-3.6 Norunanufocturi.g AppiialriOll' 306

6--4 Cboice B~IWer:n ArrributU and Vwb]es ContrDI Cb"" 306

6-5 Guidollnos "" Irnpl ..... ",,* O>ntrol Cbart> 311

CHAPTER 7

Ploc:!:SI and! M~~~lS)'$~m CapabnLty Anall"'~ 3Ui

CIqo1r< 0,""",,, gO Le=iog Objoaive> 326 '·1 _ 31.7

7~2 PlO12i5 CapIblliry ADaty.sis Usil18 a Histogram [I • Probo.l>Uily Plm 319

'-2,1 UsioglhoHistopm .31.9 '·2.2 Prob.bIIllI' PIlIGlnI 331 '·3 Proc'" COp<btlity 1iAti'" 333

'·3.1 us. and "'"""",,,.tion of Cp 333

7·3.2 Pro~ Capability Rillio Cot IUl Off-Ccotet Pro""" 33&

'-3.3 _II' and tile Proo"" Copabillll'

RoaD 339 .

. 7-3.4 Moro nbenn Pr<a" C", .. o.g 341 '·3.5 0:",""""" hi re rval. and Te!;O; '0 Proo:ess Gapahillty Rotio, 343

7-4 p~ CBpabiliry Antlytis Using a Coa.trCll Chart 349

'·5 Proo"" CIIp.r<tity AJ>alyri> USiog DeoiJllWl ElJlUlm.... 351

7--6 Gw,e IDd Me!t5l.1mDe"nt S)lgem Caplbilit)l S ...... 3S:I.

7·6.1 B,.;c eo""'p" or 0""1< Capobility 352 1-6.2 Th, Analy'i' of v..;.".,. M,tbod 358 '-Iii CDoJid.o" In,...w tn Giro", R &: R Sru<I;" 361

,.6,4 FAI .. Dm""" es ond P .... d u,r.cti ... 364

777 Setting Sped:fic.adoo Limit!!. OD D1sae~ CompoaellTS 367

j 7-1.1 Linutr Ccmbinltioos 367

1 '·7.2 No""""", Combirwion. 371

.... --.~~~~.;~~~~~=

7-! E$timad..nl1l me. N.cural ToIm:nc:e Limits of a Process 374

. 7·1.1 Tht.""", UmiiS B""'d •• tho Normal Di,oobulion 374

7-8.:2. NQIlp&a.J:Qmt' TDluIUI';1:; Limiu 375

PARTID

Otbcr SWistir;:aJ Prm;:I95-MOnitCirill, .ad CDIlWl 'fi£bruq .... 3113

CHAl'TER8

CIlmnJau.e Sum and ll>porumtially Walsh"" MDYio,g Awrllie Ccnnnl Cham; 38!

CbapIer OverView and Leamlng Obi""'"'"' 3lis 8-1 The Cu",uJaIi ve Sum CoD",,1 CIwt :l&S

8.'. ~ "Buic Prlncipl.e!: The Cusum ContrOl Chert for MonilC.M,g the Prcceu

M< .. 386 .

1·1.1 TIl< 1lobuJar or Also_ C ... m fo. """",,,-.ing Ill, """'.5O -. 390 8~1.3 Rl:~~darlc.nsforCtlSllm

Do<isn :Y.JS

8-1A "The Stlll)dmdiucl CuW:[O 397

&-1.; IrnpttMn~ CUSUD) Rapo .......... for !..M&eS~ 398

&.,,6 'I1lo FII$t lnili1li 1WpOIl .. or H<adsWt F<amr, 398

8·lf CiDo·8ided eus_ 400

.8-1..8 A Cwwn fM" MolliMin,1!: Proceai

Vari>.bWt;' 4111

8·\.9 ,R.1iooal SUbcrO'llpo 4IIl

8-1.10 CusuJPs for Oda Samplc.Statistits 402 8·1.11 ",. V·M>sk i>ro<ed_ 4ct3

s..l The ElF:pccent1ally Weighted Mo:vlDI Averq.e

Comrol 0... 40S .

&-2.1 Th.~~Wol!' .. dM"';n!

Aw.n~ CootrOl Chsn for- Monltod:n, tbt:, Proe~ss MLYl\ 406

8.1.' Design of III EWMA Con"'" 01", 411 8-2., Ilobos", ... of dle llWMA 10 N"",,~ty 412

8-2.4 Ratlo na IS,bl"'Ll(IIi 4L'J

8.2.l Ilx"",;, .. of Il>o EWMA 413 &-3 n.. Mo';o, A .... ,. Cuotrol Chart 417

--'

HAPTER9

ther Un:l'll1:L~.fI'1!: Stlll:'i:stiCI!I[ Prccees Mcolrorin,~ i!!'ld Qrurol TI!:l:'hniqll!:S 423

'hJ~r Ov~ and Wminl!: Objl::eti.Vd 4lJ

-1 StsJ;j5lical Process Corlfrol for Shon Produt=t:i.Qn R ... 424·

~·I.I , .. d R Charts fat Sh<n1_llC1Ion Runs 4!S

!H.Z Anri"", Cooocl Cb_ !C< Sbon Pmducdon Ruru; 1.)17

9·1.3 Othor Me!lIod> 418

·2 MDIllfieo. 8lIo. Aoc~ancc Control ChInS 429· ~~2_1 Modified CollttOl IJmiu wr

oIIo~C~", m

~1.2 A""",,,,",, Co,,,,,1 Cb_ 433

·3 Couti.'t)l CbilIt$ foc Mnltj'pl~~cam Peoceeses 43 ....

~J.I Multi~s ee tlmPI""""'" 434 9·,.1 Gt""l' COo",,1 Chests .04 9·,., Other Appm.m.. .o?

--4 .sPC Wii:h AlUlX:om:]lted Pro~ D:i!lt3 4J8 9-4.1 S[)un::~! lind E~ ofAutDco:!!ela.1ianm P,oc:~Dpt! 4.38

9-4.2 M_·B.,.d Appm"''''' 400 ~~.l A Model.·""" AI'I"""h 452 .~ AOzpIiv< Somplin~ _or,", 45~

-ti ~tlll.mnic D~gI'1 of CoIIrrol Cba:rtS 457 9"",10"ignio8 ' Control 0", 451 a-e.z Precess Char.acrer:l.iti.cs 458

9~63 Cost PII!I'Iml~et'!i 458

9r6..4 mly WOrk and. Sl!l.'Jlil!C(]no:r.m,!::

Ooslgns 460

9--6.:5 An EconoFJdc Model of Il'II!! :r Control Co", 401

9·6.6 0 __ 460S

,_; Cll~CiJI'~ Cb~ 467

.... S ~ OiB.D~pci:nl Medel for Proc~~ Moo..i!~lin.g 470,

L!} O\o~.e.w,of~?rn~rt:S 472 9-51'.1 Tool Wen: 412

9-9.;2. CIIDIl"Ol ChartS BI._<;ed 011 Oth~ Sample.

St.atisaic.!i 4·73

9,<)" Fill Omocll'tobl<rn, 474 9·9.4 P"",,,,,001 474

9·9.! Thl<"""lo,"""" C=' 0,,,,, 476 ~~.iS MooitoriDll Prnet:!&eS wi.th C~Bomd

D;al;fl 476,

~.1 Noop_, C""",,,I Cbort< 477

CHAf'TERIO

Muld-v.ari.o.te Precess MooitoM~ and Conl:J'Pl 486

Olapt~ Q...erv.il:W qiI Le:a:rn:ing Obje.eti'r.'es 486

11171 ~ Mn\Uva..riatl! Qllan[j'·COIlttOl. Problem 487 l{l~2 DdScnpt:i:Oll eof .M.ult.lvYlate Dete 489

10-2.1 The Mu.hi...an~ Normal ~m""bWjQn 489

10-2.2 The Sam.ple M~ V«to:r:aJid O;.~arll;~ MB"" 490

10·, Tho Hol<lli'41 r' C,_I 0", 491 1M.! Subgro"".o 0... 091 1()"3.2 Inrll'l,ljl;fJ;!sJ Ob~mons SOD

IIl--4 Th. M>ol<;ivori ... !lWMA ccnecl ChMI 504

10-.5 ~!l.JiDn Adju~c!l' 507

10-6 Control Chatt~ ror Mcnit0M.! V.o:riQbiliIy 311 1(1.") i.oI«' S __ M'lhod$ ru

1(I.").I~ri","po) Comp<nont> 514 1(1. U p.,tiol 1..< .. , Squ.... Slg lCi-J! !'m6l. MorulD<iDg S20

CHAPTElI. 11

En;i.nl!uins Process Comrot ~d SPC S26

Cbzpt:a Dvervlew :til_cl u~:g CDjIl!:ttiYd; s-11

11~1 .Prca:ss McnltilM&;fJlId Procees RquMM !U7 1l·2 _ Control b)' ,,,,,,,,oJ< Arlin"""" 52S

11·1.\ ASirnjdoArljlo_tS,bomo,lntogroJ

Con",,1 528

1l,:1.2 Th< Ad ..... "'" Cb", 535

11.1.3 _"'" of the ArlJ='" 0", 5:l6 11·... Otheo-1\'p" ofF><4b,ok

CattrolkrB S40

1l.J C-bimn, 5PC ""d]);PC 541

PART IV

Pl'OCe5$ D~ip .and Impr'Ovcl'll.ent wilit DI!Bijncd ~pmme.nl;!!i: .511'1

c:HAPTER12

FiKtOrial iiIlIJd n:ill!:tir;mlll :F.at:rllrlm1 Sxperimel'!~ ~ Pfg(:I!IS!j. ~81l.and Jmpsovemeer 5"49

CtJ.II(lm!" Ov.cnric:w and :Le:Ami.cg Objel:-tivei! .511 !I 11.1 WI<>.';, E.porim""'" o"il!"l 550

12.-1 E<_'" of .,.,ignod Expctim<tlU Tn Precess imf"""<ID""' 551

1 .. 1 Guido"" .. fo, .,.,;~g E<pe."..,.nts 555 1~-4 F"",odal E>p-"~ 5S1

IH,I ",,1<""'1')0 56D 12-4.2 SUII:lsdc:i!l ADal)'sis S60 12..,;) R<;id"'" AmUy,;s 566

120j Tho l .. F....,,;01 o..wi 567 12-5.1 Th," Design S67

l::!-5·.2 "['he. 'i~ DI!s.ign rOT 1: ::!: :9. P..m.ctli 57J

1 .. 5.3 A S)o8" ll.qiliooto of olio t Doolg. 58S Il~.5-4 Addillon ,of Center PCl:nrs !,r;) m~

2' O,sign 589

l.2~S_S BIcd:inB aad Collfc~i in the 2~ 'p..,:5i.cn 593

U·6 F"",""",, RopIieatioo of tho 2' O<>ign 595 t2~6,1 TIle Onl!:-HaLf FractioD ofilic l'O";go 595

1:2.6.2 SmallH .Fr.acti.OrlS": The 2~ FcortIClrliD.I Pa.=lmiill De.sign 600

CHApmRI3

Pm~ OpC:rniution wilil D~iill ed Elpmirnc:nlti 611

13~ 1 :R.espO!l!ie Sarfa..:e Meilioo.s, and Designs ':;12

13-1,1 The.Me.thodorStr:CpC:5t.A.li~~t 614 13~ 1;;" MalysiB of 8 Set'Onll-Ordcr R~DS!i Swfo" 616

13~,:2 p~..!i Rob.mrll!!l!i S~ 621 1,·21 a",.~", sn

Ll~2.l 1l\.:. Re:SPCI15oi! SwnCI! APPOBc.h to

~ p~ R[]~C=$5 Stud.:ics 6:24

I)·) Evclu~OII"l' Opmlloo 1;31

PART V

Acce.ptmea Snmplkng 643

CHAPTER 14

Lot~by·LotA.o:ep~ ~pling fur Anrlbll~e.~ W

~ O\oervlc'W IrId Lellm.ins Obj~~ M:S 14~ 1 The AG~;me~lmlplln! Pmblcm 1'546

14--1.1 Adva.ctqe~ B.D.d Di:gillLivai:Jtrlgci of

S_li'i 647

14 .. 1.' ;yp",afS_lilIgPl ... 648 1 ... 1.3 Lor I'ormo:<ion 649

", .. 1.4 RoDdom Sampling 649

14-1.5 GuldclirleJi fm U~ Aotcpt~ Sonopling 6S{)

14-:2 Slnl1le.sampliIlt: Plans fer .A..m1blll~ 6.54- 1 ..... 2...1 Ddlillom of II. Sjng~-SlQ!!flti[]g Pion 652

,<!-1,2 Tho OC C""'" m

1 ... 21 Ilo>il;ninj. Sin,gI .. S_""g Plan wOh •

Spoclliod OC C""" 657

14·24 Re01!lyUig ",,,,,,tion 658

14-.'3 DCo_'ub!e. Mul.tiple,. BDd Sequendal SUi\pUQj 6:6l ,4·3.1 Doob)c.S_pl!og PI>" 662

. I"'l.l MIl.lIip\e-S""p);n~ f_ 668

I"'i" S"l""';oh'lampJ;'g PI.... 669

14-4 Mi!i""Y Stan,,",d lOSE (ANSYASQCZI.4, ISO :l.IIj~ 672

14-4.1 Description of th, S,,"<i><d 672 1"-4., I'to=i= 674

14-.4.3 Dlscus:ricn 679

I<!-~ Th. Oolllo--1'.0"';g Sonopli"g PIon< 6!ll 1"'1,1 AOQL p,,,,, 6B:l

14·5,2 LTl'D .~""" 685

14~:i.3 &t:imationof~hallilile 685

CHAPTERl5

0'0" .A",_"'·S","~"~ T.,hniq... ~S8

I~·I A_, SiiDpIinll by Vorl.b'" 689

15~l..1 Ad'llS4'tl!t::es ilEId Dis mlm'lS~ of Vori,",'" S_lio.!! 689

!S.,.2 1YP" of Stlmpi;Dg Pian> Avoi',b'. 6!11l 15~ 1.:;1 CauaclII in the Use. of Vui~bk:.s

S",,~lio.!! 6~1

llrl. De.5:lljlnin,g iI VariiLblcli Srim'pling PlIm 'With III SpoeIll.d OC au:v. 6!12

II., Ml!.!ITD 41< (ANSYASQC :Ol,~) 694

11·3.1 Generol Oos,ripO"" of .... S.-m 694 u-az Use Clfilie Tll.b~ 695

11·3.3 Di"""I"" ofMll. SID 414 "" ANSYASQC Zl,9 698

IS" 0 __ ",100 S"",pljog """''''''''' 699 lS-4·.l Sunpling b)' Varilili~ 10 Give. A$S1l!'lU!!cc Roglltdln8 tho Lot " p",= M>an 699 I, .. " So.J,"';al S"'pling by Vorl.bJ" 700 is-s C!Wn Sompling 100

IH eontinU"" S_U,g 70l 15-6.1 css-i 103

15.~'2 Other Coflti.l1uDll~-S am~R. P1BIl5. ?05 IH SkI!>"LoI,s ""pling' PI"" 7D6

ApponOi, ?u

I. Sw:nmary cf Common Fmblllbllit)' Diuriblllitl!l:5.

Often U",d in S",O",<>l Qoalirr Cootrol 715 U CllmulllC'I,I1o'!: SwdaId NonnaJ. Dis!r':llll.uictL 716 m~ P~l;ciua.e;e PoLr'llS of lim r.~ DiJinibuticn 718 XV. fm:eIUa!:lC Points of Ih£, t Dlsb'ibIJUOD, 719

v. PercentJF P'lJjnt5; of ~ F Dj suibu!:!Cfi '200

-

II lIB

-

iII. Alic:tor50 roc CaDstruc.tiDg V.arlab~ca COOttol . Cil.,.. 7lS

VR ncbl'l for 1\vo-Sidcd NDmlal 'IbledDee Llmits 7U

vm. Factor!; for Oll~ided. Normal 'Tbteraoce Umlts 727

Bibliostwphy 'T.l?

Am~ to Selected ExC['[:'Lsm; 713 Jndex 743

-

-

l

1

Quality Improvement in the

Modem Business Environment

CHAPTER OUTLINE

r-i THE MEANING OP QUALITY AND QUAUTY IMPROVEMENT

1-1.1 QUrumiCN ofQu.I~~

]·].2 Q,alkyEngineetincTonn.,olo.,

].2 A BRIEF HISTORY OF QUALITY CON'lROI.

AND lMPI\OVEMENT

,.] STAnsnCAL Mel'HODS FOR C1.JALITY CONTROL ANO IMPROVEMENT

J.4 MANAQEMJ;NT ASPECTS OF QUALITY IMPROVEMENT

H.I Quolky Phtlooopb,

and Mm-aiemenc Sa:ucsic:ll

14.2 The Un!: e.,...n Quoli" end PtoducIivlt!' HJ Q.nl;"C",~

H.4 E.o",ho=ofQuol;",

1·4.~ lmpl<m"'Mc QtJaii", Im_""",

CHAPT1!R OVERVIEW AND LEARNING OBJECIlVE5

This book i. aboo< !be use of .tati,licol m."'odi ODd 0"'''' problem.solvlng <eclmiqu .. to impro" tIl. quality of the products wed by our .ociety. Thos. produolS "".,ilt of manufaeturl!ld goods such AI automoblle4. colDputus. and clothing.. as well as services: .. clJ .. the ..,. ... 110. and disttiliution 01 electric.a] one<gy. f'Ilblle .n".,portlltion. banking. relllilinH ... d btoaIth care. Qualizy im~""''''1 "mhod. CJUI boo 'pplied to ony ar •• wltIlin • oompan~ Of OlJ!mization. in.cI"diDg lllAIluf&!Urlng. _ d",e1opm .. ~ oogin.oring design. finance and iCCClonlin&, marketing, dis.tributioo and logistics. IIIIld field service Df

. produolS. This text P"''''''''' the teolmical tools ~t are needed to ,<:bi.'. qoality tmprevemem in thl:!c C1[ganizatioIlS.

r.1hU chapter we give tho wi. defutitioos of qoality. quality imprOV'(l)oot. and other quality ~g termillology. W. also .discu .. lb. n;'tOrieal development of quality im~...."t (l)eth_lo~ and overview tho ,tl!tiotieal ",01 ... sential for DlOdem profc&. slenal practice. 'A hrlcf discu5.Sion cf some management and besleees aspects for implelllcntiltl quality imp",,,,,,,,,nt a also giv",.

After c ... eM .ruo.y of this eb0p"" yOD shoold be able 10 do OIl. following:

L Deline and 1Iil""", quality and quality impro .... ent 7.. Di"""" the differ'Dt _ions of quality

3. Di."", tho .""luti.on of modem quality improvemeot metlJo<l.<

4. Di""" •• lbe role !bat vlldabUity and Sllltjstical methods play in conllOlling and improving quality

S. D...,rib. 111. q"ality Ill.lMI0000ent philQsophies of W. Edwards Domini. I .. epl!

M.lllI1lDj and A.rm.and V. F~jf:IIIDiUl:m

...

6. Dis""". ",tal 'l"ali'l' m .... geme.~ om Malcohn Baldril' NatioDal Q"alil)'

Award. Six·Sigllla • ."d quali'l' systems and .tandards .

7. Explain lb. !iJ>ks bOlween quality and productivity and between qoaIity aad cost

8. Discuss product ,fi.bility

9. Discu,. om three fuoeti01l5; quafilY 1'1annmg. quality ... eurence, and quality eon:ttDl and imprOVl:mCDt

1.1 THE MEANlNG OF QUALITY AND QUALITY IMPROVEMENT

W, may define <i1l.111y In mmy ways. Most people ha ... ecneeptuel un<i=?"din& of quality .as. relating to one or ntOte de:ilirable chU¥'leristiCl that a product or S.ervlC~ ~hould poases s. Although tbl, coucepual nnde"tandinl; i, =tI1inIy a wefu\ st"""'i point. w e.

will Ri'Y~ :B. moee P~g i!Ir.IC useftil definirioo. ..

Quality baa become 'One of the men importW'lt i;.OCSUll'Ler decision fll£COf! m the. seiecnon among competing prodtlctSi and services. The pb.cno!neDOn is wi(h:~read. reprdI~ 'of whether the consumer is III indlvidu&l, an indtW:rial organization, a eetell srere. or oil! miliW')' d,fense progrom. eo.s",uently. uodorsWlding IIIliI improvin!: quality key fa<tors ~' lew, to business iU(:cess. grOWth. and enh~ competitiveness. Tber~ ~ a i!iIlbs~al ",tum on inves.."ent fi<>!n improved qual!'l' ."d from """"""sfully CIIlploYlDg qualitjl ~ an integral part of overall bu,iI"", ,,,,.cegy, hi tbl,. secio~ w'. pro~ o~'<UJot1" d~mtion.s of qualil)l and quality ilnprO"l/emenL We begin WIth a brief dUilc:uS!jon fJf the clift'er-

.. t dim.nsions of quality and some bIOi<: tomUnology.

'*'

J .1.1 DUnenoio'" of Quality

The quality of. p.o~n.t can be ova1D.COd In seve ru waY'. It is often ~ery iInpotl,"r '0 d~rerenliate those ~If=t dlmensWtu of qDoIity. GIlVin (19&7) provlIlos ." =,llen' discussion of eight oompDJI<nts O. ~mensiom of quality. We "llllmt!ll7.O bit; kOY pOdnI.s """coming those dimensions of quallty .. {onow"

1.. Perform ..... (win the product'do 1he intended jobl)

POtential. elLStomcn ~ually evalUI!IIc. a pmduet l(I d~te:rmioa if it will pcrlbmt cert.oiD speciflc func~ons IIIliI determin' haw woll it perfumu them, FOr "amp)'. you ecurd <valua~ spreadsbeOl .oftware packllges for ". PC '" deoennlne which data maniputatiOll openticoa they ~ You may dlSCO'YeI thal QUe O1.Itpe:t-

forms IIlcnher with respect to the. exe~utiDn speed. -

2. R<llabili(y (bow often does the produ" fail7) .. . . u

Complex prod.c"" such .. mAn~ "ppli"'""",, .. romobile$. or alrpleoes. will W • aU~ require '0"", ee poir over their service Efo. For ~amplo, you shceld ox"",t ~jt sn auto.motJile will £equire: ~'io.nal tep;&it. bu t i! thl:: car reqU11'C:5 frequent repair, we say that il js uDlcUabk. Th~ are many ~d.~lri'7 in which the ~9,", IlllD'''_', view of'l"aUty i' g ... Uy imp"'tCd by tho reli.bllity dimension of quality.

3. DW'8billty (bow long does Ill. product losl7) .

Tbis is me effective eeodee life of the ~t Customers ObVlOUS1), wan~ prod-. uca char. pedam\ .satisfacrorlty over a long period of time. 1be automol:lil~ IDd

_._...i

major applilllce indlUuies are ex.a.mp'1:S of WSLDesse5 where this rumensjOIl of quality ;. very ~I to most costcmers.

4, Servicubility (bow easy is i. III repair lbe prod",,?)

ThE«: are n:\lny inciuZitrics in whic:h the customer's view of quality is. directly infiueoced by lIow quicldy IIIliI economically • repair or ",u<iDe malnlODillC< .ctivity can be accoOlpli,bed. Exmnpleo inelud. tho eppllenee and automobile industrie.s ODd many type:! of oorvic. mdustri es (bow long dld it tak, a credf cat<! comp"'y to ccrrect ail error in yo ur bill?).

5. A.stb.tks (wbat do" lb. product leek like?)

Thi. is Ib, visual appeal of om produe~ often W:ini In", 1IC<O\l!l.t rae"" • ....J:t as style •. color. '.ape. paokaglng wm.d ves, tactile cb.aracteristics. and otbel: 'enscry futures. For e1i1llDpIe-, $Oft-drltlk: bever.ge m.AJlll.facrurers have. relied on me via.ua1 a.ppca.I of tlleir packa.gi.n( to diff'erentim their product from ",thel cernpetilOn.

6. F ee lures (wbOi doe. Ib, produCI <101)

Usually, ClintDJDeni .aS8ociare high quality with products thaI have lidded. tearures, that is, Ihose lJ'Jat have fel!lnu-e5 b~yond the basic peafcsmance of the COlllpedtion. For example, you might consider •• prelld<heet .software paci:lJ!' In b. of ,up" nor quality if it had buUt-in statistical analysis furures while ill! competitors dld nm .

7. Percti .. d Quality (whot i. om roputation of Ib, o,."pmy or ito product'!)

1rI mmy CIl5I:S." customers rely an the (lRU reputation of~e company coneernlag qualitjl of Its produc". Thi, repuution ia dir¢otly lntIuonoed by failnr<s of Ib, product that or. higWy vioibl, to om pub lie or thOi require produOt recalls, and by b.mII the. r::uslorner is treated when a qua!ity-r-datcd prob1cm wifh the prDduct a ,""orted. Perceived quality. CUJtomet loyalty. and ,"" .. ted busIn.ss are r.:los.eJy inrereeeneeted. For example, if you make regular buJiDI:JlS trips usio, a particular airline. and the flight almost alway. arrives on dm. and tho aiIJjoe company dOE..!li not lese or dimage )'Our luggage, you will probably prefer Ie fly en thllt curi.er in:nemd of its competitors.

S. Conform....,. 10 SUJldards (i& the product made e:tactly .. the deaig!1or incende<l1)

We u,ually think of a high-quality prod"", as OD. thot ... c.~y """"' the requir ements placed. an it. Fer example. how wen does the hood fit on I new ciD'? Is it perfectly flusb with the fender heillb" and is the gap exactly om '.IIt< 00 all sides? Manu!ac.rured paru that do not exll:uy meet tb5 designer's r~uirCJnenU can cause significant quality problems when tb.ey are used Ail the compo-nems of 81 nwre cOl1lple.x BSSe.mbly. A.b automobile oon.si.sts of several thousand partS. If each one is j.ot aIIghtly 100 biS or "'0 small, m."y of the components will not fit togelll •• properly, IIIld tbo ",hiole (or its major sob.yste",,) m.y Dot peIfwm es the designer intended.

We see from the fuI!lgoin~ discuasioo that quality i6 indeed a lDultifBCet-e:d entiry.

Cons.eque:nr:l~, i!l. simple ;answer to question! .such as 44What t3 guality?,,' or "'What is qllality improvement?" i. "'" '''y. Tbo tr.ditional dofirritiOD of quali'l' ia based OIl om vlewpcinr thlU products and servlces mos.t meet the reqebemenes of those who use them.

-

..

-

---

QualIty m.'" jjlnOSS for .... ·

neft.nitton Quellt,,,, ;",votsoly proporlional to v.n.b>1ity.

1 i

1

I

I I

\

Loe

~ 1~.1 m.5D'ibu.d..iJn.!I of~ dIm.s~ fo~ !t1J'ISln:i':u!iClilt.

a trl!:f!Smissjon that was manufactured in a comq,tic plant and by It Jepaaeae .'!.upplier. AD analysis. of w.ar.ranty rClai.ms and repair 'coats lndicl!lled tluu there 'WeIZii a iitrilr.:it.lj! difference be~e.en the 'l\VO sccrces of prcdueacn, with the Japanese-produced transmission iLoving much lower costs, " ,bo\\lll in Fig. I-I. A. port of tile .tu~y m d1iooyor rne e auae of this diffe:~e ln 0091: and petfom::t.anee., lhe comp8l'ly selected [!illQotn samples of tr.".m!ooiono from .... h plllllt, d", eaa eeeted til.." ... raeasured .. veral cedeal qoality charectedstics.

Figure 1·2 is genttolly repres .... tiv. of the results of this ,rudy. Not< thel the distJi. blJtion of lh~ c.ri~ ch.toc.terlrnie;s fat' the tr.ansmis;siom; manufactured in IDI:o United Stares takes LIP .Oou, 15% of the width of the 'I""ific>.""n" 'implying that very few conconfermms units woold be produced. in Iaot. the plllllt w" produoinil or • quallzy level that waa guile Sood, baaed on th< genotaliy _'ed view of quaWy wtlhin 11\0 =~ .. y. However, "the. Japene.se. phuu produ~~ m:mmUssio~ for whieb rt\e. slW:!e crltie;a1 chor"~ teke up only eeout 25% of tile 'peclIiclllion hand, k, a remit, there i, censiderab ly lea variability In tho aitioa) quality oIIarllO!eristiCO of tho j ap .. ese-buih tr ana • mi sa ions in oomp~ m thooo boilt in Ille United 's...,..

nero are two olMous quesdons hee: Why <lid the Japanese do thi,) How did they <10 tlIi.? 'The """""" to ~ "why" q ... tIon is obvions from owni",oion of Flg, H. lWiuO<>l! variability 0.. ilir«tly "M9 la ted InIO lower CDSts. Furthermoee, the laplln ese- buill trensmission, sltittod _. sacre .""",thly, ran mote qui.~y. and we rt JeaOnlIy peccersed by

- ttll:, CUStOmer as supcriO£ to those built domts.t:it:li11y. Fewer rqlahs and 'MoIaIT.Q.Jlty claims ID.e8l'I5 ~ nwork;and the redccncn oiwutf:d 'lime, effort, lll'l,d man~y. Thus-, quality truly Is ~~y ptOp""'on.I to """,ojUty. f..-tbonno", it OlIn 00 OOItW"uicated "0<)' pIOcisdl' In • language Ill., every one (panloulor1y ","""g"" .. d .,,,,,,,,dv .. ) jmde .. tm<U----'!IlDOly, mone-y_

How did the J.~ ..... do thI.) Th. answer liee in tho 'l'l'_.tio and effecti'le use of Ill' method! described in ",is book. It also jeads to the fullowing d<>fluitioo of quality lmprnvement.

Dtllnltlon

QuaIlly I<npro""",,,,t ;, the redueeon of VIIli.hility In 1"'"' esaes lind products.

_'

.~

Ex..cessive variabiliry in PIOCes.s pedonnBIICC often results in wute. Por example, ccn-. sider the wasted money, 6=ej and effort thlll is 1Ui15oc:i.ated with ~e replW"s represented in Fig. 1·1. Tilerefore, an a!tom ... ana frequeDliy vel]' rueful definition is that quality impro'Yc:ment is the reduction of was~. This definition ii particul~lY effecrive in servfee indutries, wbere there may not be as lIumy things that can be directly measured (klk.e. l1le tr.anl»l'Wi!ion crilil:al dtmen.sicns in Fil!li. 1-2). In service lnduames, a q,uality problem rna}' be lin error or :a. rnisUlc:e., the correction of whict. requires etfurt and expense. By improving lb.e. service process, thia w!,Sted effort !lld expet1!e c.m be avoided.

We noW present .ome quality engineering teIminology that is uwI tDroughoot the

book.

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1.1.2 QUAlIty EDgineerlna; ThrmincloJrl

Every product poue.s51:15 a number of elements lhal: jointly des.eribe. whar the user or cOD",mer thirW of .. quality. Til ese p...."."n ore of'tm ooIIod QUaMi)' choroct.rI,U",. Sometimes thes.e are call ed <rl1i<al.!O·qlllllity (CTQ) cMrocteri,ti",. Quality char'''''''' islics may be of ...-a! types:

I. Pb)'1i<al' lengtl>, weigh., 'IOlngo, l'i.<osity 2. Sensory: taste, appearance. colar

l. time OrlentaHon, rdi.bili\)', durtbUity, ,ernoeability

Note th" the di:lf<ronl types of quali,), chllraotui ... " 0" relat. direc~y or indiJt<lIy III

lhe dimensions of quality dis-c:uli:ied in the. previOUS section. _,' "

Qwillt~ engill"rlng if the ser of ope,.tiooal, managorlal, and Ollg",eO!llli accvrcea thal 0 romp any 1I9CS 'Q Ollli~ that the quality characte.;.ti" of • VroduOI ore at the n~ inal or required I evela. The techniques dj""" .. ed in the b<IOI: foon lIl~ob of the basic methodology used by en&ine.ers and other technical profe.ssionab to achieYc:. eese goaIa.

Most orpnizatiom find \l difficu~ (lnd <t.ponsiye) III ~ravi4e the. oo.to";'"' with products thu h;pve "lwWty ehataCleristic:s that art always ldentiC~ t:om unit to. Ulllt, or ~e at lewis that mateh customer a.pectitirlD.s. A major :reason for this is variability. 1bue. 1.3 I!I certain bnounl of vBrlability in every product; consequently, no two pmlilXlS are ever ichmtica!. For ""'"'Pl., the thidm ... of the blades on • jet rurtin. ensine tmpeller a oct . i<l<mtica1 even 00 tho ,am. impeller. 1l10Jje thiokoes, IVill also d!Jfor bot"""n impe.1l.". If

this variation in blade tbicknCSi is. small. Chm j[ rna.y have no impact 01l the CL1S10mer, ~ver if the nnation is large, then the C\lstamCr mAy perceive the ucit to be ondem.. able and junaceeprable. Sources of th1& variabUlty include differences in materiak. differences in me pu.fonnllDCe and operation of the manufacturing equip:rne.nt, and differ~nees in the way tho operercra perfonn thoir taSks. This line of lhinking led III the p~ deC· inition of qLlalll;y lmproveruent.

Since varilbility can only be described in Nr:i!ticaJ terms, statistic:al methoos pta.y a oontra! tole in quality jonprovomen! offGrts. 10 tho applicatio? of SI.6sti£al metllod. to <jll&lity engine.rins, il Is fairly typical to cl ... sify data on quali\)' cbomctorisoos .. "ther attributes or VI;Tiables dau. Variables dl.ta are usually IWnnnuO'UJ ml:UU~ts, such i8S length. voluge. or -yiscmity. Attributes dm, on the. Dthe~ ~d, fItf. U5l.lBIl? di~te d~. often UlkiOj! the form of coun". we will describe 'TlIllSaca!-bas04 quality OlIgmeenni toob for dealing with both Iypes of data.

Quality cbaractuistios oro often evaI uete d "loti .. to 'P"'ill'alton._ Ear • manufu>. ~ product, the spccificariom are the. desired measurements for the. quality ~haractuisfico of tho oolllpOn, ... and sub"",,,,,,bU .. thaI Illake up the product, as well .. the desmd valu~ fer !he quality chm.c.teristiCli in the final prDd1lc:t. Fer ~xlWlple, the diame(et of A shaft. used in ID :a.utomob:ik rr-.arumiss.lon cann~, be too large or it WiUl'lDI:lh into the rnlt~ ing bearing, nar em it be reo small, resultiD8 in .Eli loose fit. CI.'I1$ing vibration. wear, and elldy fail"", ofm ....... bly.lo th. servlee industries, specificadans are typically in term, of the: maximum amount (If rime to ptClCW an DroOl or to provide :II. p:articuliU' serv3ee.

A value of 8. mea.smelllelU that corresponds tQ the d:sUed value. for 'lhat quality characleti.stic is called. the nondnal or target value for thlU charBeledstie. These targ~t values are ul<Wllly boun<ied by a renge of vain es tIlat, III0S! typically, we bell .. e wijl be snffi. Clenily dOle to the target so il!i lO not impact tbe function or perionnance of the prodUCt iftbequlll£jl charac..nsnc is Jn thot ""ge. The largest aliowoble vahre for I quality ejaraotuiltic is called the u~pu 'pocl6cadon 11mil (USL), end the ... ellear allowable value for a qoolity _tedstic i. odloO the low ..... p.cification llm!t (LSL), Some qulllty chiz:e1l:leri.sdcs have :!5peciti.eation limits on only IJn~ :tIde of the target. For enmple. the compIessivl:o !tlenglh (If 8. compoocnL used in an aurom.o.bi11! bumper lilely has It wge( value end a lowe«" specUication limir, but 110( In upper specification limiL

Spocifications arc wually the roM of the .ngineering desip' process for the producl Tndltionally, design eegieeers have arrived at a prOdnOl design oonIigu:ration Ihrougb the UI!:- of enginee.rin,g science principles. which often r-e5Ults in the: desi.gn~1 spet:ifying the target values fot the t.rltica1 de:5ign parameters. Then proeatype OOMtruction and le&ting follow. 'This testing is often doae in a very 1ln5'tl'UCtUre.d ma:mJ.er, withwt the use of 5latiS-tic.al[y based experi.meo.ntBJ dC5..igD pcoc:edwr:a, and withD"llt much inreracdcn with or knowledge of .tho mlinufBt:ruring precesses that mesr produ~ lhe C!:Q.mponeut pa:ns and fina! product. Huw."." tDro"lIb thiI ,""",a! pr<>o'Ou", the ,peeillostion limits are usually deteImin.d by the cI<o!.ian engineer. Then the final prndUCl is "'·l ease d to manufacturing. We refer [Q t,bis as the. Q\'er-tbe-wail approaell to design.

Problcn>s in prodo'" qualil)' usually .... SIUter wbeo the over·tbe·waII appt<=b to desigu i! used, In this appmach, specificadONl are often set without regord to the inherent variability tbst <Xi .. , In materials, peeeesses, ""d other P""" of the >y5Iem, wlili>h ",.1" in cornpom:.nt! or products thar are nODmnformin,; tbat is, that f81l to meet CIne. or :more.

. of il5 epeclfleedans. A 'l'ooifu: type of fiillure i> called, nonoonfonnJi)'. A nooooo.fol1ll· fng prodOOl is not necessQrny unfit for Ugej for example, a detergent may ha .... !:- B ccnceotrotion of oO';Y. ingrodi.enls thot i, below the iow<. ,peci:fu:ation limit On. it may atill perlimn acceptably if the Cl.l.8IDmB uses: a greeter atnOliot of the produc:.t:" A neneoeformmg prcdccl is considered d.el~ctlve if it ha.a one CIt' nwre detects, wruc:h are ncm:llnfotmi~ Des thar are SerloliS enough to sipifi.cllltly affect the safe or effective Usc of the pn:!duct. Ob.lollSly, failure on the pan of a c ootpony to improv, u. manufacllllin& precesses COD a.l.so eeuse nonconfonnitie.s and d~f~.

Tbe ovel-the • ...n design process has been the ,ubject of much an.mi"" in the las' 20 yem_ CADICA1'd systel;JlS; ba-ve. done much to automate the. deil.ign proc.ess and to mere oif,",tively trwla ... ~,tions into mmllfAOtIIting aotivitios and processe •. Design fo< manufao,"",bili\)' and assembly has em<rg,od .. an important part ~f CY«oDllling the inherenl problems with 1:hf: over-tbe-waD approo.ch toO design, and ID.OS[ englleets ~i"Y~ some backgrotmd on those areas today as part of theil frnm..aJ edUcaOOD_ 'The RCent emp1wis on con'orra>t .n&bl..".1l1g bas ""e .. oO • ....", approach to desiau, with .poclaliS1G in manufaclUliOj!, quality engineering, II1d other diocipline. wowng together with

tho ~",~OCI designer "' thO earliest "'agO< of the product design process. _ e, the "!feedvo use of tho quality lmpro'''''''"' ",.thOoo!ogy in <hi. bOOK, "all Jovd. of tho p:roc:t:3S used in product design. develDprner:l:t, :8.IId m.a.:nufael;LQing, play, 1_ CI1.lciill role..in

q"ali!}, improve",.""

\-2 A BRIEf HISTOR.Y OJ! QUALITY CON'IllOL AND tMPROVEMENT

Quality alway. b» been an integrol put of virnI2DJ' oll proOuctS and ,orne"". Bo",,,.,,. om ."'" eness of j" Impo""""" end the inlr<l<lllotion of foonal method' fur 'l"allty conIr<>l ..,d impt<>v<""cnt beve boon on ovolotionary <IoveIOPll>Ollt. Tobte 1·1 P""'''''''' • \inleline of .some of the lIllpon.ru _"es in t»j.s' O'IOlutionar}' process. Wo will briefly

discu . .9Zi1 some of tbe e"'=U on thi!ii ti.mcline..

F<Oderic~ W. TIlylor intl1>du<;,d some princip'" 01 scientific ",OIlllt"""",t as rnO"

production indn,trios began '0 develop prior to 1900. Taylor pl,,.,..red llividing work into tasloi ,0 thot Ill. produ'" coold b. II1l1rl1lfo.etnr«! ."d assem bled It>O!" ,asily.Hi' wo<k led 10 s;tlb:iilantial impmve:ru~tII in piod.uctivity. AJso, beC;B.use. ofst.aDdnrili~d prc1ducMn end ... ombly metb<>ds. the quality of moo1ll'llorure<i ~,00<10 w" pooirivdy imP_d es well. How_,. along with the "",<!ardizocion of work method. carne th' concept of work ,tllndords---ll ,tandat<! dme to accomplish the work, or • ,p,cified "umbor of, uuir> that must be produced per period. Fran!: Gilbreth anil olll'" .,tended thi. concep' ., the otnO)' of motion ."d work design. Me"" of ,hi. had • pooitive tmpac 00 produotivity, bu, ~ often d<_ompbo.sizet!lbo quality ospee< of work. Fwtbo""'~ if """.0 to 0.'10""". '"",rI: standar<!s hove !he ri.9k of b.olting lIll!Ov.non and OO"ttouoo' ""Pro-" wh;ch we recognize today as bein) a vitll 8.'!p=t of all wo~ aotivirjes.

s,OIi.itical methods ood !heir oppliooooo in quality improvome!!l h eve hAd a long bio· tory. In 1924. WIll,,, A. showhlill of ill, Boll ToJepbillle Loba,omri<> devolojPOd the .... tiStical contml-cbert concept. wbi<n ;.. ofteo ccnsldered the fo""a11>eginnlng of "btistical quali!}' eontrct. Towor<l <I). end of the Inn.. &<old F. Dodge lind Hany G. Romig, b.th o! BeU T'<lephone lAlKrrilfOrio', dove101"'d ,tatiotio:olly b ... d a<e<pmn<:< sam pling .. an oI"""oti>o to 100'11> inOp«ti,OIL By !he middle of the 1~'0s. ,_01 quality<o.troi methods were in wido use at Weston> Eleelrio. tho ,.anufo:ctlldrlg arm of the Bell Sy'''''''· How""", Ill' voIue of ",ti,tical quail!)' con"",1 was not wirioly =~by induotty:

World W" IT sow • 1l'",Il.Y expanded use and acceptance of natiaccal quality-c:ontn>!

. 0<l=!S in ",,",ufactlll'ing ind",U"i ... Wsrrime «porion'" mado j, apporoui Ill .. ,tatiotio:aI teclmiq"'" were .""""azy." ,0n",,1 end imp<O" p"","ct <jillWt}'. The AlIlerlcan Soci."! for Quo1Hy COOItOI was f"""od in 1 946. ']biO ocg..n...tioo promoteS the use of qoolity improv",,"", tedllliq"eo for all typos of products IIlld services. It 011", • """,bet of conf.cen,.", teclmic>l publiCltion,. end troining prog'""'" in quality •• ",roll". 'The 1950, and 1960, eaw the emergence of rwbility enllin~" the introiluotion of ..,veralimpO'tant textbooks on stadarcal qnal.ity conlrOl~ and th.e vieW"poifU that qllality is. a way of man-

aging the orianizarloo.

In the lSJ50s! dwgnw e.x~ for proclm:.t and p(1)!:e55 imprOVement were mISt

introdnced in lIle United StII .... The initio1 oppli<:>tIon. were in tho chemical i"ouolry. Tbese metb<>ds ""re widely o:q>loiled in tIlo r.banical ",dwtry, and !hey are ofteo ciled" on< of til. prlmOty <wOOS that tho U.s. chemieal lndn,tty is 0 .. of the """t oump.ti~ve in lbo _ld ond """los' li~le bu,l""", to foreign oomp:mi.,. Tho 'I""d of these roedl,od.

-~,~"

1901 19U7-1ilO' 1901

1~3' l!lll

1_ 19"0-""" 194~

)9<4 194,

1946-1'1011 1941

L~SD

1!lW>

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.- !:. __ :.-.-- --'"lIiI!. £_ -"' __ IIiIf"=. ~ ..... -....,.~- -=-~-__.,..,......---

~._..:..,

9S1

[9-51+

1914

1%1

-

19005

A. v. I'cii""boum publi .... ' tbe fu~ _ ofhll belli<. _I Qu<>III> C","",'.

JUSE _Ilshos '0' "DeminS Prlu" fa ~oniJIoan' _"'t" qualit)' "",rmI and quoJit)'_. oklg,..

O. E- ~, Bex and K,. :it 'W\]..:5QQ pllb~sh tundamc.ntaJ WI:KJf: 00 I.lsUi;g de5i~ed. u;pe.rimcnU Ii!Dd ~5Pm1C .mrfa~ lIle1hodolQg)' 'Or~ ~ti.oo; focus iii. 1J!l c:hm'Li~ [CCllmy. ,A"pplll;l1ti[]QJ !:If d.esaillOd ~crlml!JllS ttl the ~bc.mical ¥r.IdLlsay IIrJW ~lUdaly IDIi.e.r tb.i!.

J~ M.lwml i5 iovIm:f b,. the JapUJC&C to 18c~ OIl quBllt_)' maoBtemenllI.Jd i:mp~ B_nush :Ili~c:i1l.D E.. S. PIIBe ;nl'rOdllc::&othe c:umulam-e. rum (CUSIlM) contJ'DI ch2tn_

1. M. Junm;md f. M. a"n.·,s Quail!)' Conlml H.fJruJbDDk. iJ;:Bnt p\lbOO~

1KhnQl'ttl'ITicf Cil Journal at staIiSllcs. fOr tbe ph~s.ieal. t:~mkal. Mid CI]~lli ~el!lCC:11 ls c5l:l!1b-

1:i.shed~ J, StuIl1 !{11I:itu" is lbc: rounding cditDf.

S __ lotrod.., ....... p<mn<iolly wright'" _ ""ar (EWldAl_ooI dutr1. Th< us, m!l.l)JllCd 5paeefliibt prOSTBJIl makes- indJ.l1II"'I ~MIC of the. 11.ef!d for rclii.blc p:tt:du<tI!J; '!be. 6eld of rt:til1~

bill!)' onginooring ~ from ""' '''''"'' .......

G, E- P. Box _1. S_ Hunter wrire ~ ptper.i Oil "'/-" fIIl:tClrial i:iengDS-

~ quillty CQM"01 cl:rcll! LXOCli:;p[ is: ~.in Japan b)' K.l~

NIiDQfI.al. CClIlJll:I1 fm' QuAlity Iild Pl'CIfuC.ti\lit)' :is form_ed in Glut B ~lItin u pitt at !:be 11 r'itmJ

~tiWyCoUDeu..

Coo:~ in Sl;aW:tin1 qu.aliC)' crmtrDI beoolllll!l wide5pn:ad in lndllmialll'tI.i~' aeademic prcpm..!i.

"L!r{] d.f:fecu (ZD} prcpmLli IlrC; inrrcxlu{;~ if:! certaln U_S. i.~-

JMJ4triaf Q4r41'l;1Jl C'M"mli ceu.c~ pu~r!DD. replau:d '0)' Q~r:rUI}I Pro-c.rullDd the lQ .... ~. of QUQljl)' Tet:hllolagy (Uoyd S. Nelson is the f01ltJdiq ~ or Jan-

In G(BB.t Britilln me NCQP and Ibe btimti:- of Quality AsmrAnCl!. mHgt. to fomi the Britl:sh QtJ.aliry

~a.tion.

Bc:d;S on de5igDi!ld expcrimronU ~ 1QWard lC!1gir.JEDIi and. scitntiw bqIn to II.pput.

mll:ce5l in CJIIIlllty ~e:l bcgi.D5 in Nanh America-thi!; il'O'Wl inID the: tOGl q_uB.lity m:lNU!lCl])l!nl

(TQM)m~'.

~ design methrJd! ~ l.tmndut=~ to aDd JdoPt«! by I widlrr IrQIlP Qf ocpUlarlanl. w:~.

i.ng el~. GIOSfIlee, &.elllioonduc.ror. ULd.Ihe.:BIlt~ itlDw_m.c5.

1bt: worts D1 Th;UCbi Ol'l rJe:sl;ned cxpi!rlmel1tl ftn,t ~ ~I:I the ll:oitcd S~.

The Ame:dc1illJ SWi$uC'a]. AssoCiation (ASA) 8$l.ibli$,bl:!.!1 the. Ad HI:K: Committee en Quality and

p~n...:it;:r; rhh: LI[U beeomU:I foD-B~ of ~ ASA. •

The jOO1'ft8.l aJatiliJ)'odIM Il~Wm" b,inurtnlll hti&mt:lDQrn:U a.ppear!i.

Box ud otbC!5 ...wI Japan, notit'la the ~fl5-i-..e use of dcs.\pe.d. ~It~ Ind c:ahar SI!l'l::iJdcaJ.

melhods,

.JSO publisb~ *' firs.! qLI&.lity 5o~1!lM SHDda:rd.

The. MlIkolmBalrlJia'c 'Nari.c::rr.l9l..Quality A ...... MC ts established by t/)!. U.S. Coogt~

'lb!. El1ropcao FoImdaQQIl fer QoaIity MlUlAgemcn£ is falndcd; tlW. at~tion adtc:mi:stu'S '!he

"""'poOO QualUy Awan!-

ThejeumRl Quai'iry Snginel!ri", &.~ MotncOla's six-Si&JDiI. W~~ari~ bl::I:Ln!l.

ISO 9000 _woo ..,;vl ... Inc""", ln U.S .• ".,."y .• pptiou!. 10< tb< BollrlF ,,,",,,, """" ~ilr. DWIl' r;!:iU!;! $PDnsor quality 1I.wud!. bll5Cd em the Baldri;l!lc enteriB_

MilHY ~1tl!I ct'1pte!rin1il pro~ n:qW.rc fomtal eow::s~ m Iwi3ric:a1 tA~'luu, fOClUint.1;III. basic: n1etbod.s rOOf proc:ts5 clJpju:twadQD Uld irnprovemtDt,

MotorcIa's six-s;iama 'flfllo.-=h iprctds to other !ndustDcs.

Tho /Uneri<ID Soci.!}' roc Qoality Coo,",1 hoe""", tho Amcri ... Society lor Quo1i!}' ( ... 'IYWW...&.5.q.org), IfI'[tt1T.Iptinl to :indIoItt the broidel A5~''lII of die qua1iry imprcrooernem: fi.ekL

ISO 9[lOO~2000 SWIIIiaIO lfi i~ SuppLy.cbain lm\ilB,geroent IlrId ILlppUBr q~1Y bocomc- ~ 1Il~ c:ri!R:al &elOf~ in bIl.$;Jlt:SS 5UCC=CSS. QUaljf)l impro'L'emenlllClM.l;i~ cxpnd be}'Qod tb! trfIOirica,!!l~ lrufu_t. Jrial sctWul ~!D Q\lIII,y other !lIeDI ioekull-OG &:iandal 5CNiI::cs, ~hh ~, mSWUcc. acd uliliU8S.

1969

H17Qi.

19&4

1916

19W1 190&

.9&9

1990.

1·3 STATISTICAL METHODS FOR QUALITY CONTROL AND IMPROVEMENr

r,.fII'~! r1'*fllIliWfll""

~:?nI:i,

11IbH5'i!'bIi115

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IJrw:QI1.u.gII4l~~"p.\Jtt

Prod~", pj1k:EtS inpou.lJId ouIp1IU-

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I

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factors XI' ~ and .x,. It u clear that some. combinatiOns of faclor levels produce better results Ihan odlet!l, For example, iocre_g " from low tc hiah increases tee ovuogelevcl of lIle pro~. amput and coold ,hift it oJf lb. larg"' valoe (1). Funllermoce. 1""'''' vori'bility 'eo"", to b. sub.!tantWly reduced WOM we oper"', tho P"""" along the b.ck edg' of the cube, wi."" X, on<! "> are ., their high levels,

Designed "'Pen=~ are • major off-line q"ality-oontrol tool, eeeause they are often used during devclop"",,'activities and lb e e ",ly ""8" of manuiaeturing. ralbor than ... routinc on-line or I ... p ....... ' procedure. They pll1y • crucial role in _g variability.

0"", ... e ha.e identified. Un of imponant variables thai affec, Ill' _ outpu~ it is usually "OC""'sry to model1bc relationship berweee thelnfl_tiallnp", variables and the outpu, qoality ohar.ol"""tico, S(.o.slioaJ I<Cltniqu", uacful in c~ting ,uch modo!> incl~ ...,essio" ""'y.;' and time ",lies anal"ois, Detailed dlscussions of deoigned aperifiiOiitl, fCgftSlion tilaly,is. and time ,en.. modeling are in MonlgOJl1el)l (2001). Monrgmne'l'. Peel<. end Viuing (2001), II1Id Box, Jenkins, and Re"",' (1994).

When the im_, variabl .. hove been identified end th.e nature of the relation,hip between the Impcrtam vari,bl"" and the J'<OC"'" outpot has been guonolied, thon an an-tine ,WistiJ;a1 p<o=--<on~al recbniqu. for monitoring and smvalllllllOO of the p"""" o.n be employed with coD5lderable ,ffecti v eaess. roohalq.,ou S1lI:h .. control chBl1li ean be used to tnODitnr the process output and detect wbe.n changes in tlIc inputs are required '0 bring Ibe prot ... hocI: to an in--control ,!Ole. rbe lDodeLs !bat .. 10Ie the in!luential inp.", 10 prooeo. outpuU help dc,ormino lb. nature and IIlIIgnitude of the adju.nncnlS required. In many prcc ..... , oaee the dynamic nature of the reladonsblpe between tho input! and tho oU'pulS oro uDdomood, it moy be _iblo'o routinoly adju" the process sc that fum .. valu es of lbo prodoot charac"'mtios will be 'PP<Oximately on "'tI"" This rouli11. adJu,,"""" ;, 011"" called mgineel1Dg control, outomatic ""nlrol, or feed"""k alDtro!. We will brieOy di,cu., these type. of proc .... control schemes in Chapter 11 and iUustc>le how Statim'" Process Control (0' SPC) methode can-be ou<>:ossfu1ly integrated in,o • manuf""turing .ymm in wbkb cngIneerlng control is in uae.

The third an:a of qualiE.)i control and impt'O'Yl:mell[ that we disc.us:51 is eceeptenee SIiUIlpllDg. mill closely connected with in'P"'tiOll and tes eng of product. which;' one of the cartieo. ospeou of quality coaecl, dating bocIc to long bet"", !"";meal molbodoloiY was developed for quality improvement. Inspection can ccecr .t many pain'" in • process, Acceptance lau1pling. de&ed ell the: fnspecthm :and cla.ss(fir.atian of iii sample of writs .. lected a' ,."<,,,," from • ll1tget b."h or lot IIlld the ul<imHe decision about dISpO!d.tion

~'

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14

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r","'£:l ~"j.."1

Cd tJl~pClliIUOllolbl!

YIJIlP' 1"", VatiIldoIll5 gr JlCecplUlC;' samplins.

10

~ '=~. i

I

~

ACI;4PIiiJl,.. S,-*tkal DI!5I111 of

"""1111 pn:w;ess CMtrol tJpeliml!!lW

'Fi~ l~'l' P'Mdi!. ~f1rrm..o:I' l!11!!o 1l~ al Fltllrll l....tl AMilicldQ1l 01 Cjl,lli.il)'-.c~klee:rini Ii!C:lliaiqlJaS;.mcIlh..e J.~

qI:IDtin''''I!II!llI'1I!flrln&:~I!b. atrID~~ofpmc~variatJilh)'.

sl:@ilile the process and reduce the. varblbili!y_ However, it is nee satisflk10ry jUS110 meet ""!uirelDrmt:>-furthor reduction of 'oriabill~ osuaI!~ loads 10 ben er product pefcnuence .and enhaneed competitive positioll, u WB5 vividly demom:tntcd in the amorocbile 1Ir.an.i~ mWiAln example disc_eel ""nor, S~tistl<3lJy d",lped experiments can be omplo~od in corgmtdion with scatistica.l process ton.t!'oI. to rninilni2e process varia.bility in neatly all iDdwttial settings.

1-4 MANAGEMENT ASPECIS OF QUALiTY IMPROVEMENT

Statisticalreclntiqu es, lncl..tlng SPC and delligned ""p~. along with o<ber problemsolving tools ere the technical bas:le' for Qlli!!liry control and unpravement. How~e.r1 to be ".eeI m<>Ste!foctivoly. tbes. tecbniq"'" ",IISI be lmplemeoted witlrin and be pan of • management -SystCl1l that is focused on quality improvcmmt. The management ,SyslCDi of an o'Sonizatioo must be organi<od to properly direct the ovetaIl qUrillty lmproYl!Illent philos· ophy end ....we if> depl<lJ'nl<'nt in oll .. PoolS ot <be busin"". The effoctm man~OID,n' of q"olity i ... clv ee SOlcoesoful execution of Ihme ",tivid .. : quality planning. quollty .. _co, and quality control and Unprovorn'",-

QualitJ planning is a SlllUCgie 8t:oviry, and tr is just as vital to B:!! organizaticm's lonR-1mII OIlS"","' SUCC"'. as the product develcp""'" plan, <b, llll .. cial pi .... the merhtiog plan, end pi.". for th' utilWtioo of hum.., reaocrcea, Wllhoot •• tcatqi, guality plant an enormmu amcunt of time, money. and effort will be wasted by me Ofganization deollng _ faulty desism. manufacturing detects. field failures, on<! cuslO""" eomplaints. Quality p1l1nniAg ; ... olv .. identifyins CWtont=. beth extemal and 1110>:. thai Opemle inte<DaJ to the buatcee s, and identifying thoLr needs (th;., ls lome"""" ean.d lieWling tc tile. voJee of the customer). Then products or :!i~ces that meet or e:«:~ eus- 10""" oxpectatioos mUit be developed. Th. eitlht dimensions of quolity dlsous.od in Secaon 1.1.1 ere en im_t pan of Ibi. effort, Tho organi%otion must theo de,etmioe bow I.hea. products. aod :services wlU be: realized. Planning fur quality improvem-ml on a .spwfu::. systematic bl!lsil5l is abo a vitll part of this precess.

Quality assurance i:3 the set of ac.ti:vitie.s that easurea dJe qualily le'Yels of products and services are properly miDDtlDned and mar supplier and CUBIClIllCt quality issues are prcpsdy resolved, Dccum .... tion of tho quolity 'l'srem is an lmponanr compocem. QuaIiIjI system documenuu:l.oTJ involves {mu compClne.nts: policy, procedures, work insl1'UC.tiON IIUld S'pecificatirms, M:.d records. Policy l!iencrally deals with what is KJI be done

--

IIIJ]jj wby, wbile p~DCI:durC!i focus on tbe tn.ethcJds aDd pc'raonllel thnt will implement p;w ... icy. Work imtr1lction. and .pecilil:lmon.t .... usually prod"OI., dopartmeitt., 1001-, or machine-arlOlltod. Rocords are a "'0)' o! documontiDg the policies, procedures, and work i ns trueuons Ih>.t ba .. been followed. R«<ltd.o are also used tc Iroci; spe<:ifu: unit> at bot<:bea of produ<~ 00 thlt it .... be determined ex ""tly bow Ibey were produced. Recotd. iIre often vitalln providing data foc dealing with C-UStol"tlfl' complaints, conect:ive actions, and, if nocesiary, prodacr te,iills. Dovol""lllell~ maiDtenance, end ,onlrol of docwnenll!.non are jmpcrtam quality essurence funcliOTUl_ One exemple of document ccntrcl is ensorinll lbat spO<ffication. and wed< in.tru<ti"", developed fur opetatiDg personnel "n.", the lat." deoign and engineering cbengea.

Quality cQotrol And !mprQ'Yentent inYolvt. the-set ofa.clivities used to eDiUJe that the products and services UtUt requirements and are imprD'Yed Olll continuous basil, S~ var:iabiJlt)' it often a _jor _ ofpoorgualit)', .latiar:icoltochniqu ea , in,luding SPC end dmignod oxperl1renlS, life the maJor tools of qtlllit)' cono:<>! end itnprovemem. Quality Improvement is oft .. done on. project·by·p~oct h.m and Involves teams loel by per. sonnel with opociolized knowledge of·"otl!tkal m_ ."d eaperience iJ:I applYing Ihcrn. Projects should be ,c1ecwj '" th.r lbey ..... oigniJiClUlt bu.iness imp"" and .... Unlced with tho overall busin eaa gOal' fur qualit)' identioeO during the planning precess, The tcdI· uiques iJ:I W. book are inlegnl 1.0 ,rn=slfld quali!), _trol and irnp!ovemeoL

Th~ nat seeeon provides a brief overview of some of lbe key demena of qualiey m!l!l8j;ement, W, rib""" ,ome or Ibe imp ortant quality phil_phi.,,,, quality ,y,rellU and S!lUldards; tho link between quality and produotivi!), and quality and coot; economio and I'lal impIi.ariOllll of quality~ .. d .ome upoets of Impl,="tion. The throe "pOOES of quality planning, guali<}' .. ,",,,nee, and qll2li<}' OO!1trol end improvement will be woven into me. discussion.

1-4.1 QWIlity Phdoecp hy oruI Management Strategies

MoDy people have conmOOt.d 10 the "1Ii.!~cal m<tbodology of quality improvOD1Otll. Bcwever, In tetms of bnplememation "'" """"""",onl philosophy, three individuals eID"'lle .. !h. leoderri: W, E, Doming, 1. M. J oren, end A. V. Felg1!nb .. m. We now "'0"" th.' appr"""beo!Dld philosophy oflbo.elcader, in quality managemenl.

~ W. Edwards Demini

W. Edwllfds Deming was edue.red in onglnoering and physics at the Urtiv"oit)' of Wyoming end Yalo Urti .. "ity. H. wo,~,d for West.orn. EJeclrio and w" Influenced greaIly by Walte' A. S_1wr. the developer of the oontrol chart. An'" loa.in, We.<tem Electric, D<rning held gnvo_jobs with the U.s. Department of Agriculture and tne B ..... of the Census. DorinS WOrld War Il, Doming wo,ked for the War Dep.rttnoru and the Celrsu& 'Bu:reatl. Following the war, be heClllne a ~ultant to Jap!lt~ indu5tries and COIl'Yinced their top management oC the pow" of ,""'tical methods and the lmpcrtence of qualily .. 8 competitive weapon. This commilinent to and use of slwticai methods b:&s been a key etemem in the expansion of Japan's indllstty and econ01lly. The ]Ilpan~se Union o.f ScicntiW and EnKW"'''' created Ibe Domlng Prlze for qll2lit)' lmpnwemem m Ill' booce Until hi. tleath iJ:I19\14, Demllttl was an ac ti .... con,ultanl and ipeaker~ be ",as an i"pirart<>n1ll force fur quali')' itnp",vemOllt in thi, o.LlIltty and around the world. He Iinnly beUe • .,! tha. the ",,~onoibiJlt)' fur quality ... IS with managem"'" thel is, moo, of the oppornmiti .. for quality improvemont require "''''',II=''U ",tion, and very few oppoou·

nide.s !i.e,.a[ the wo~on:e Or Operator level. Deming WIlS 11 har.sb critic. of mJIT.I :11._ •

.mlD~t pracucea Y.t"'IoI.lIencan

n. ?"rrung philosophy ~ an, import .. 1 ftamewodr. for implememini quality and prodU<tlvr<y lldpro"me_nL Thiri philo.ophy t. ""-zod in hi. 14 poinn fer managemeat, We now glYe. a brief statement.and discuiiion of De:ming'l 14 pOints::

1.,

Create a <Onstl!!lcy of p~ fo=d OIl tho improvement of product> and servIc,". Coostandy Iry to llnptevo product deoign md p,rfomwlc .. Inveetmenr in Ie&clll<b, • development, and inncv.tioII will have Iong.lf.iID peybaek to the Dt'g8!Il:laaon.

2. Ad.op[.a new pbilo.sa(lh~ that recognizes we are in .a. diff~re:m economic era.

Reject poor worlunan.bip, doCocti,," products, or bod service. II cosr, .. much to produce It ddective unit iII.S it does to produce a good. one. {and someLi ~~ TIe coat of doaJing with ,cr.ap, ",,,,,,I.e, and oth er lc seee creared by ~: ti"'t:S IS an eoormD1l9 drain on comPilIY resoerces.

Do nor [d.~ on mass inspection lao "cam:r:o.l" gualilY. All !nape:ction elI! do 1:5 sort OUI defectIVe., and at dIU pciru ir is 100 late because we have aheady poid 10

produce tfte5,e. defecdves. If.lspeetion typically OCCUrs too late in the precess it is ~petJ&i"ret and it ~ onen ineifectil'e. Quality resuhs from prevenrion of' dd-ec~ DV .. duougb proo ... improV<moo~ '"'' inspection,

4. DD ~t .a.w!"l'd ~~ne:s3 too &Uppli.en on the 'basis Qf price alone, but also consl-der 'J_Uality. ;m:e ~ a me:BD:in.a;ful meesuee of a supplier's product only if il is ece~red m teladcn .1.0 it measure. of ~UBli[)'. In othe[ words, the total C;!)$t of the ltelD must be t:o~dere.d. not just the. purc.b..ue pece, When quality i.5 c.owld. emI, th.lowest b!"der frequ,ruly io n.I th. low·"",,, supplier PteferOllOC sbould be ~_ to '""plior, who use mOO.1lI methods of qual!!)' improvement in their business and who can demonSU1le pcccees coDIrol and capabllity_

S. Focus o~ continu"",, improvemem Constl!!ltly Iry to imp<OVO the proclucrion and, ~ce system_ Involve. the workforce in thee llCtivities and make use of .... aJtic,a[ ~thods. panicularly the ,lAtisticaliy baaed problem-"""iJ:Ig loob discussed m this book.

6. p...";",, modem "aWn, mclhods and in",,, in on·lbe.job training fur all ~mploy ees, E,,;rYOM should b. ttol""d in the te,hnical "peel.! of thel:r job and m modom quality. !DId producti.lty-Unpmvemem melhod.! as weU. 11le trai'wng .OO.1d encourage ali employee, to practice trese meth.ds every day.

? Impm .... 100000~p, and p .. ctice modom "'puviBlon methods. Suporvislon sbould nor cons.St mcre-Jy of p&$,sive surveillance of WOrkers but sbOUld be €oou:ied on "lpin.g th, employees Improve thr: <l'''= in wbieb they work, Th. number one goal. of supervlSion sbollld be to improv~ the work system and the produce

8. D~ve OUt !eu. ,Many wo<kcr. are ofraid to .. k queetices, report problems, or pOilU OU( ~tiORS lbat are bmiers 00 quality and effective pcodt!ctfo.n. In many orga.t'IJZ~ o~ lhe. ~c loss asSOCiated with f~ Ui l.acge~ only mID" !l.ge:meru can eJ.imi.nate fear.

9. Break d~ Ibe ban:i~. between lIInetional "' ... of the buBine ... T..."",o,k !I!llO~ ~t orpmzoUonBl units i ..... Inial €or oIfectivo quallty and p~ ductivlt.r unprovc.mcn1 m tm place _

. 3.

_ .,

'".._

10. E1.Uninate targe~ • .slogans, and numerical goals for Ihe worldOfCe... A taIpl sueh aa "zero defects" is lI,eI~$ without :II. plan 1M the Bcbie'YMIlent of this Dbjective.. 111 f,ot. "'ose ajogeo and ''program<'' are uSUJilly ooUllterprodllCtive, Work 10 improve tile system and provide information en that.

11. EllininBte. D.\lIniCrical quotas and work standards. These :t(andards haye histonclllly 'bcen:set without regaxd to qUAlhy. Work .smndan"ls are often sympmms of managemem's inabil'i.ty to unCierst.J.od !be work process and [D pro"ide an efu.. rive nnnagem~[ system focuJcd on improving this process.

U. Rom," the barriers thaI discourage omployeeo from dGing "'eir job., Maniilgement must H&.ten 10 employee sLl~Ii-o:Il.S. comments, and oomplEtints. 11Ie person who is doing Illo job know, the ""'" about it and usualiy h&J .aluable ide-as sboue how to :make the prooes:5 work more e.~ecti:vely. '!be workforce is an Impcrtact pArticipant in the b\.!:ti.nc5".5, and not just an opponent in eoljeclive bargaining.

13. Institute B.Q ongoing program of educallon for all empl(!~5. EducatiCll in simple. powerful ,toUsticw ",ctmiquos shculd be mandlltory for 011 omployees. Use 01 Illo b .. ic SPC problom-soMng reels, gartiouIody the ",",,,,,,I chan, sboul<i become widespread in the bus.ines!i_ As these cha:ru become widespread and as employees undeataod their uses, they will be more likely to look: for"tbe c~ of paor qnolity arul '0 identify process improvern""" Ed"c a tioo ;, a way 01 mDing everyona pa:mer!i in Ihl:< ql.1.8lity impro ... ctnent process.

14. CreBte I suucrtrre in tOp mana.gemeut that will vi.!ornusly advocate. the first 13 porn ...

M we read Deming's 14 points we DOuce that theaeb a snong empbHls on mange.. Also, the role. of management in guiding this cMnge pr(CC.t.§ i:s of dominl.ting importance. However whAt should be ehenged, and how -sbould W:!i change proces.s be !ttaru.-d1 F·Ol' CJ:1IDlpJe.: it we want to jmprove the. yield of If, semicoo.ductor ~a.n\lfac.turing precess, wbM should we. do? It is ill this are. mat statislicw methods oome mm pJay most frequently, To lmprove the ~mic:ondUl:tor proC".ICs-s, we. must licwtnine which -ccnttollab~e ~ in the pccces.s Urlh.lence the. number of defective \lnits produl;!d. To B.tJs.wex Ihls que!tJon.. we must collect data on me. process and see how the system reacts to change in tht. proeess wrilllble.g, Stawtical melbocb. soeb as designed expmments and cceecl charts, can COQ. rrlhute to these. l!C:1ivitil!!$..

lese-ph M. Jutan .. .

juran was born in 1904. Ho is <Ill. of tho foIlndinl fBth.,.. of the quolity_1 1IIId

imp"""'ment field. He worked ror W~ A. Shawhan .. ,IJ &T Bell L~"":"D[:ie' and has been at me leading edge of qtlali~ imp~nt ever SInce. He was l,nvned to speak to J OP""u, indu>trl' 1""'.", .. tlley begeu their ind.,mal rn.nsformollon in the early 19:;0... H. is lb. co-author (willl Frank M. Gryo.) of tho Quo/i.ry C""""I H.od1wdk. • .taIldotd reference for guality metboW and improvctncnt srnce its ini1ial. publicL'ltion in 1.957, ,

Th. Juran qulllity mon.gcment philoSOphy foe"" .. on Ib:ree ClIlDpononts: plamung. control, and iml""""""nc These ... known as the Jun1> TrIlogy. A.. we.have n~'-'<l p vio"sly. planning ;""olvos idenrirying "","",Ill customers and de~nmg Ill"" needs, Then produr;ta or services that lBSpood to rhe~ customeT needs Bie deugnl!id andfOl developed. and tIl~ processes fee l'rodudllg eese products or SiCrvi~ an: then developed, The

-

~bJlnl.ng pr~$ :~ld abo,involve planning for ,quality improvement on a. fegtllir (typIcally .annual) bam. Controlu employed by the operating forces of me business to ensure. U,Bt me. product or eervice meet5 th~ .requirc.mcDt!i. SPC ii one of tilt=; prlmllljl tools of conttol. bnprovemon. elms to echleve per!onn.._ ODd qualily level, the t ere higher than 0",,ran 1eve)s.:. Juran empbasizes mat i~provemcru: must be on D project .. by·project basis. These projects are typi~ jdl!:u.ti1.i~ at the planning stage of the trilo:iY- lInprovem.ent ~OA either 1>0 COllti.UOW (0£ _ontal) or by breakthrough. '!i'pi<aliy •• brukthrough unpID1Jemc.nt I.S !be reault of studying the proc:e.ss and identifying I! set of ehan~ that result in a large, relatively rapid improvement in pcrfoamanoe. Designed c~periments are ad imporllmt .001 IbaI cOD be "sed to acIii.", bre<kthroIl gh.

Annand V~ Fei.I~bltiliJii.

FelgenbilWll fir" introduced Ibe CO"""p' of COJtlparly.wld< quality control in hi, historic book To,al Quallry Co"trol (th. tirot edition was pubfi&hed in 19S 1). This book infl"."ced mnoh of Ill' "my philosophy of qlUllily m .... gem .. t in Japan in,Ill. early I ~50 s, In faCt. many 1_ oompanios used "'e name "toto! q"ality control".o describe !hoil efforts. He proposed. 1hr ee-s ,"P lIpproaoh to improving quality: quolity leadership. quality recl>~cl?gy. and organiutioiJal. I;:ommilment By quality tecltttalagy, Feigenbaum meens uanstical methods and other teclmical and engineering rnetbods. such 8..$ the ones di.sCU$~d tn rhie book,

" Fei,~ba~ is conce'ml:!d with OTI.ani2:BtiOTlal structure and a systems approa(:l\ to tmpmvmg, qulllity. He proposed a 19-f:itcp improvcmed[ precess, of which use of 5ntistical metbod< was step 17. H. initially sugg est ed IhlII mucb of !be .echniclll capability be OOIIcentrat~ in a speciafu.cd d~ent. 'l"his is in contrast to me more. modem view th.al knowledge and use of slntistic81 fools Deed to be Widespread. However, me erganizntlnnel aspects of Felge.nbaum's work: iU'e important, as quBlity imPlOViCDle1l1 does not usually ~prin:g forth as a "grass 1'001$" ncdvity; ic requites 11 let of mat).Bg!!lPCnt commitment to

:mB.kc.hwork, "

Ths briM" descriptions of the philosophies of Deming. luran. and Fe.lgtODl.um have higliligb te a bolh tho common aspects ODd dllferences 01 Illoil viewpoints, In this author's opmlon, mCIe are mare !imilariti~ than diffennces. amOIlg them. and the :dmLIariUes are ""hill I, importlllll. All _ of tho .. pio...,. otrcSS the jmpcrtance 01 quali.1y as an ess eatial ~~titive weapOn., me imponem rote mat mana.;cment m~ play in implementing quality Jmpro'Yl:!meTIt. and the. Importance of :sIBtistical met.bCKh and tectmiqUf:.$ in me. "qllallty tra,,,form,Ii.,,." or an org&nin!lOlL

Total Quallry Man.I"""'"

'l'otaI qualily mon.gement (or TQM) is • slr3teg~ for implementing ..,d mallaging quality improVefD.I!!Dt ootivJties on 1m organization-wide bui5., TQM began in lbe early 199Ds. with ",. ;Iillos"phiu of Deming and J.,.. .s the focal point, I' evolved into • brnader spectrum of coecejes and ideas, UJ.'YIO\vir.l! p.artieiplltlVf!. D"[!anl2a.tions and work cul.N.re. CU9- tCI-:met' foc1l5t supplier quality jmprcvement, inregradon of me. qual..iljl S}'sle.m with 'OO:siness goals, and many other activities to fucus aD elements of the orga.niD.tion U'Ouna the quality jmprcvemem goal, TyPica!l~. orgonizmions that luvo Impteraeured • TQM al'!'fO'ch OJ q Ilallty unprcvement hllVe quolity =cils or high-level teams th" d,a1 with ,tmtogio quality initiative", wmilforce.-I.c.'Yel tum9 !:hat fucu$ an routine production or business activities, and crcss-functkmal tearns tblladdresJ specl.1ic: quality improveme.m issues,

TQM has only nad·modcl'a'le JU.CCe550 for a variety orrwons. but frequently because. . there. i!. insufficient effort devoted to widesp.rud 'l1t:iIizition of me. technical tools of variability :reducticn. M~ organi18tiOll5 saw tbe mission of TOM as one of mrlning. CD1l.SO<J.\lotI~y, many TQM .iftnu ""i'god in wilkspI...:! trOlnillS of \be wotl<force in lb. phiJ.<>sopby of Q"II1I'1' impr,,.omenr end • low bo9ic mOlllod<. Thi. tt>iDiDg was usually placed in the hBDcs of human re.soUfCe:.i departments. aDd mucil of k was. ilH!l~e.., The: train~.s often had no real )d.f:a about what me.thods sbould be tlughl, BDd success was LlSUoIly measured by tbe P<rCeI!tago of the woddoo:e m .. bad boon "InIined'" not by ",helber My measurable impact on busineSs results bsd been achieved. Some general rca,SOIU for the."". of cc •• pi,,",o", '0"""" ofTQM iI:w;lude (I) lack of top down. high-I"""I manoge- meat colT.llllitmetLt and involvement; (2) inadequare use of s"tittlsuc:al methQd5 linli inruffi· cient =iJ1itlon of .ElIiability reduction as a prim. objoe~""; (3) general aa opposed 10 $J>«ific bueme .. -resuns-oriened objoctives: iIIld (4) <00 much .mp ...... OIl widespread lTtJitlmg as opposed to foc\l$m1 (e(;bnical «di4CfJlWn.

Moille, reason for lb. erratic eeeeess of TQM is lb .. many man.&,<, ROd ex.cutiv.e< h_ regard..J it as just ano\bJ,r "program" to improve quality. Dwing m. 1950, and 1960" programs such .. zero def.,to and .al ue ongineuinR oIloonded, but they had little real Impact on quality and prOOu,ti"''1' imprOV!!tlellt. During lb. heyday of TQM in the 19805, anodler ~ul8r program was ml:. quality is free initia.tive,. in wbien manlge· rom' worked on identifYing tho co,t of qoality (or tho <0;' of nonquolity. as tile ·'qoality is tree" ck:votecs so cl~lYl)' put it). Indeed,. i&:ntificaticn of quality costs cen be Verj use!'Ill ( ... 0 disc".' quality ""'" in ScetiOfl 1-4.3). 0.' the ·'quality is fr .. •• practi.tioo<'" oftAm hid DO ide. ,bout what 10 do to aontoIly Improve many types of complex industrili processes. In fad. tbc.lead-crs of this i.ni.liative had no kno:wled~ about s[!IItistiCiU methodol"llY and oornp"""y failed to eederseend jt< rok. in quality improvement. When TQM is wtl!l;ppcd I,!WU1Id an ineffective; pro:gr:am wch as thist dis.QiS{l!::t is oftm the tr;$11lt

Qu,1It\' Sy.t .... ond S ... d.rd>

The lllt<mllllon.l S, .. d.o<o. 011!ani2ation (founded in 1946 in Geuev .. Swjl2crlaDd), <town as ISO, It .. developed' .. ties of ,rand.o<ds fOr quality ,ystems. "lb. fust "andA<ds won> issued in 1987. The eerrem "",,;00 of tho "."dord is known .. the ISO 9000 series. - It i. a goneric standard, broadly "ppJ;coblo to 1lIIY 'l'P" of orgoni.ah"" iIIld it !9 often "<0<1 10 d"""""ttate • ,oppl~'$ ability 10 _tto1 it< precesses. "lbe ~ ee staaderds of

ISO 9000 are:

ISO 9000:2000 Quality Monogement Sy,,,,,,,""""F\lrulamOIlto]. and Vile""u1"", IS 0 9001:2000 Quali'Y· M ... gemeot System-RoquiremenlS

ISO 9004:2000 Quality M>.nal= Sysomt-Gmdelincs fm PerlOrmA_ bnproycment

ISO 9000 is also an Am";c", Noli"'"" srondards lns1lm,. lind an A-SQ ,tlIltd.o<d.

The ISO 900102000 "and",d ha •• igllt clau, es : (I) Scope. (2) Norm .. !'" References, (3) DcflDitiOll'. (4) Quolity Maoas"",ent 5y"em s, (5) Manasemeet Re<pO!l'ibiU'1', (6) R ea curce Monas"","'" (1) Product (or Service) Realiza,ion, ... d (8) Meas'Uremcnl,.Anaiysi'. and ImprQve.menL C1a~5C$ 4lhrougb 8 are the most important. and rbt.ir key compcent5 and requirements are shown in Thble 1-2. To become certified und~ me ISO standB1d., a compA.DY must select a ugistrar Sind pupa.:c. for a tC!:ftiftca· tion laIu.dU by this regis trar, Thl:!rf: is. Be single indep~dent authority that llc.cnscs. l'eg~ ula[Cs. monitorS. or qUilliilil:ls ;regi:nrus. h we will discuss later, this is a .seriOll$ problem with 'me ISO s),stt.m. P~g for the certification audit involvlS5 many al;t:i'Yitie.s t

4.0 Qulllity~.,..'S1'''''' 4.1 Ocotal ltCqniJaneDts

'1.'he .atpnlzuioa 6~ lIS!aWJ_.sft, doc1.lmem(. bnplm:II::ct., aM 1l:I~ II. quality macagemoj:1I sy.;tem ;md contmL.l.Atty imp:tlYe It:! e.tre~5 .in .IIcctlf(lanee with aae ~u:immCllt:l of 1M iDre:mIri01lII.Ls!andiard. 4.1 DDru&!Il.trlUDC ReqiJ_ireIm:[]!!i

QlJill~ :n.g~t sl""m IIOL41:tneNlOOII will Inc-luda III q~ pone)' iDd qllliity obj~s·.a qul!l:ky

=Ii~: a::C:~~~=:::'U:=ra=t~t: plmmins. apMaUoo, weoo~ at

5.0 MBDII~' Sy.llml '

'.1 Ma.oil~.t Ccmrllillllat .

s. Ci;ll'!UtIl,lrueatiol:l cf~I1II1::Ll.ltlmer, 11uvtuQ'.lIIltl_II!,iUlll.tar)' ~IJ~

b. 'E!la.b1J:5b:l.ng aqLltii.'IY:PIlljll::),

c. Esu.bll!hin& qullity objel:.tiR$

d. Co!ld~ClI1llI mant~ revi!ws

e, Ereiluotll Ib,t tesCklIDrs 8:Jt: ~labJe.

;.2 :::::::,':"0:::=::-' ,,'10""'" ""'"""","D~ "" dotennin<d ODd ... met Wlli> <Ire""" of l.l Mac._., shaUo..w;", , "","I)" policJ'.'

:5.4 ~a.;eml!n~ Iblll msllrC thBJ. quidily Gbjeel3ye.!I dfBll be catabliDtl_ M.a..Q_1!I~1 s.h1LU =mne that plm.

1\Jn:g~ b tlMqualt~m'Bna.gemc.1I11)'51em..

S.S MaallpmlSll' ~hall OIlSlirC. Ilillt rt.Ilponsibilir.les aDd ,~ arc dcIincd IlDd COIIIIIIIlftiCIl~

5.6 MafI.a~nl sball rcYic.'W tht. qualll:y .MAD8.JeIMDt SYStem 111: ~ mrronab.

6.(1 Jlesoum:: MUIipme.nt .

6.1 The clpllizlolitlll slid dele:rmice IlDd provide. needed ~glltl:t1.

~ \VDtUn ""m be. tJro\l'J.cIed.Ile~wy cdln::ioo~. uBiniIlg."'ldt1s, iI:Dfj t.J:~

~=~~ pl'O'¥ide.. ac.cl mlintain the iofraamu:rurc ~ded tc 1Iclric'i'IC oon,fonDlly

6.4 ::d~~ tll:iBtPUDe.ad mllRlge ihe work eavirQlIlIIlCct nudcd to achic'le ~furmi.ty to 1.0 Pm"",,.,SO<VIc<a __

'.l 'The tll'gllruzadoo sltaH pIan ~ dcveIop proeerte.s CI~d b" IlrodlKt or .il:rvic:c r.cafullitiDn.

7.2. The(li1;tInlz~9han~~1liIemcfiU.!..!ii5?Cci:ficdbyli::u,lIlrMrs.. '

~1 'I'!IC ~n0i4atlon shalt ptlllllDd I:alItrCI tlw:. W!siiC !lid development for its prodlklli or &Crvi=s. :e~~~QD SlId ~ thai!: pwretwed alla!e:rial or produ~ cDllfQ[1Q5 cl,l spcc.tficd pu:mba5e

',.s The. otpd:ls.lioo dLl.Lt pbm and can)' cut pl"D<l.1I.eUo1l aDd .senicc IIfldl:::r I::aa~ Coodi'tiOO!L

7.15 The ot,gblitillioo siWl ~ dI.e mcollcrlrtg BCd ~ ta be Il00ertabC UltllM mollirorlng ::'LI.:::'I mica: !le~ IOpt'"CJ!li.de. ~d~OB ofltoo.fDr:mIty r:4 ~ Qr services Ie decenninciI

8.0 Measnt'l!IDe.nt. Aftltpi!, and. ~ro1'~l

1.1 The otgani7&D~ shal! plIO ud. imptemcDr tbc PlDnitoriDl. meaJ"UR:It'eDt. maI~tLs.1nII tmprtmmelll ~I for oonunl.lll tmpro'lUIIISflt IDd ~ty to RqUiremCJltS.

21.2 'l'lM:. ~IJII, dWl lDOaiklr infixmaLiCIl rclBrlnl to (lUSfamer pcrr;:~ption&.

".3 The. OtiWli:lMicn 6hd ~tlm ihtt product tlJu.does JIQ( CJlIlfurm to ~ ts i.dI!:m::i:fi!.d IICd

~d tI;J 'prs'i.'ellk !cs U1llntc..IIded IlSC or D!:Tivcry. eon--

:11.4 1b.c ~~ shall dae.ntJ:ine, ocUect. lind BnBl)'!l!I data to de.nM)OStt1U. (be :roltlbllli:y aod dfcc:tiw::ness Qf lbe quality mllD~Dt system, includmg

a. ClS!Itomer ,wsfa&::rioo

b. CallfQrmaoce dMa e. T.rcDd dilota

<I. SUppllo. OM.

!,.s The. crg8.llizadoo 91La1t~:y imprn~ the: efWlftffiesg of the. q(JlI:ity maollacmect .system.

--

_.

. __ --

'-~.

-=-=.

'"

including (USllally) IIll lnitiol or phase I ""dit Ib" cll"'b lb. pr es ont qulllity ",."ag.ment system against tb~ standard. This is \l:!iually followed by estAblishing team..s to e:nsurl:. th.at all CClmpOnelLlS of the key clause are develQp£d and iinplemt!.nte.d., training of personnel. developing mpplil:i.ble coc:UInenl:atlOn. and developing and installing an MW compo"",,, of 11). q.al!lY system Illat may be required. Then tho <:eI1ific.tion allclil !olces place. If the oompAny is oorriiied, then periodic ""nelUonc<> audIts by tho regisnar continue, usually on an annual (or perhaps six-mon.tb.) schedule.

Many O'iI8I1izaUon. have required thoir "",pile" ID become cc:rtifi.d W>I.ier ISO 9000. or one. of ml! smndards lba' are mere indllSlry-speclfic.. Examples of these indu~. specifio pty 'Y'lem ,[a!ldards are AS 9100 for the aerospace ind"stry: LSOII'S 16949 end QS 9000 fer Ibe aUlDInOti .. industry; and 11. 9000 for the tolooollllllunicaaon! ind",. "y. Many compo ..... of th ese ,l:iOOdl!rds are very similar to these of ISO 9000.

Much of me fOCIL! of ISO 9000 (",d of tho ind",Iry-SP<cifio _dard,) i. on fmmal documentation or the quaUr:y system; mat i51 00. quality assurance activitie.s:_ Orpnizations. l1Stl&'uy nmst malo:. ~ren.sive efforu 10 bring l1:Il!.ir docum!ntation .in,to line. with the requirements of tho .... dardo; this is Ifte Aclulle,' heel Of ISO !!OOO and other st."dani s. Th.." i. for "'" mu<:b effurt rle>owl to doeomont.tion. paperwork, ."d bockkuping and IIDt noarly enough 10 "''''llliy reducing _illty and improving precesses lind produc ... Fmtb_ore, many of the Ihinl--pony regis"",,, nudi""., ""d co •• ultaan that wcrk in !his area .,. not ,offi ,,;,nOy aducalOd or expenecced "'01lgh in !hi ttehnical loOls required for guollty improv"""'DI or how these lOCI, should be deployed. They an; all coo ot'rlm unaware of wbDt constitutes modern engmeerinjl and statistical practice, and usually Ale. famIliAT with ow)' tb~ most elementary techniques. Therc:fDreI they ~oncentratc. lotgely on tho OO:UlIlontotion, record-~.ping, and papcrwml< aspects of cc:rtifioalion.

There 15 also e .... ident:e that lSO certifitation or' certification under OjJ~ of the ether !nOuS"Y"pocilie Standl!rd. does littlto to P"'_I poor quality produru from beiog designed, menufactnred, and doJiv • .." to lb. ,,",,_,!'or example, in 19'I9----~. t!Jen, were num~uS incidents of milo .... '" IliCdden(!j involving Ford Explorer v~cles equipped wiLb lhidg~stone.lF:iteUooe 'lires and then: WM!; nearly 300 deadls in the Un1red States alon •• ttributod to Ib eee accidents, wbl<:b led 10 • =all hY Bridgestonei'firottone of ilIppro:ximatel), 6..5 million tires. Appuentl)il many <:if the tires involved in these. incidents • were rn.anufacwred at the Bridpstone/Fi:l'~ta.ne plant in DI!CIlWl, ~. In III article on this 5lOIY In TIme mnguine (Soplemher 18, 2000), !bue was • photogrsph (p. 38) of !he sign "' Ib_ entrance of lb e Decatur plant which .... ~ thnt the plmt w .. "QS !!OOO .Certined· and ''ISO 14001 Cerrifiod" (ISO i400lls JIll enviroUlIu",11Il srondard). Although the. lI.!i~ana.ble C91lse.S" underlyinK the:.!e. iPdrlents have not been fully discovered, there ere eiee- indici!tors that despite qtlalil')" sySlem!i. ce.nificalion. Brid&es-wnelFirestooe ex_perl",ccd .i8JIificant Qulllity probfems.

1\ b es been eJlimalOd lbot ISO oc:rtification eetlviriea are (.pprorima,e1y) a 40 MUon d~lIa" annual busjmn, worldwide. Much of this In.Cdky flows. to !be registrars, eudlrors, and COllsultJmt5, 1"Iilii iiUDOUnt doe.5 not Include the. m.tern& Costs itJC1J.IIti.d b)' orglmizAtioru to achieve £O&imation, such as the thoosands of hours of engineering and managl!lll.et1t effort, travel, iD[emBllraining. and internal auditing. 1t is not clear whether any signifi.cam fu.clion of thi .. expendtmre h .. mw:lo ;\$ W'Y to tho be= lin. ot tho registcted otg ... • eatices, Furthetmore, tbue is no assurance mat certifial.lion has BDY rea] impact 00 qllaUty (as in Ih. Brllige>tooclFiteM!l< tiro inciih>nI!,) Many qualifY "ngin .. ring authonti.", feel Ihot ISO certikaU on ;.I"l!.ly • waste of effort, Often. <>rpl!;Z.tiOllS would be far beneT off to "just say no to ISO" and spond • <mall fraO"Oll of tIllt 40 blllion doU"" on Ihoit qulllity tyste"" lind anoIllet W:i!'" fmcdcn on meaningful variability red.cti011 efforts,

devclop thoir ow. ;n,"", al (or poem.p, lndu'try·1losed) qulllity st~I!rds, rlgoroo.1y onfo_rce them, and pocket the dlff eren ce,

The Mako 1m BoWl,;;. N .nono) Q1ll1li<y Aw.rd .

The Molcohn Baldrige N •• enal QUality Awl!rd CMBNQAl wo., c"'"ted by Ill. U,S. Coogres, I. 1987.11 is 11''''''' lIIII\u""y to recognize U.S. ""'JIOI'ltiQW for pesformeace exeellen~~. AwaJds EUE &i v eu to orgatdzations In five l:aregori'IC.S: toanu:facturing, servree, smal1 busmess, htoalth eare and I!;duc:anou, 'l'b:r-I2. awards may je given each year in each categOry. Man)! orga:nl.ntiOt1.S ccmpeb!o for the awards, and m'flD.y compiilD.i.e.s use th~ pera fotmllDC!! a;([E.DItIlCe. criterfe fQ[ sclf-asse,smI!llL The ewatd is' 8dministetcd by NIST (the. NatiDllBl B"""," of Standards and TnchnoloiY).

Th_c perf~ excellence criteria and their imemlationships an shewn in Fii. ]-9. 'fbj,pcW .81_ fut eese criteria in tho MBNQA are shown in Tablo 1-3. The Criteria"", ~lRCted towards R:~Ju, where re50'Ults lUe a eompo.si~ of 'C1,t5IOtIle:r .!itlWfacti.Oll and reectt0T4 marker mille .arld new madre! developmem, product/service quallty, productiviry and. op~tlcttd ~e~~De.!i:S, _ hnmen resources de.velopDl.e.r.l(. m:pp.lier performaace, $J.).d pu.blicJ~tate 'Clti.ZCJl.5b.i,P_ The Criteria are nonpre;scriptive.., That is, the. fllCl,li is on resuhs, nOt the use of sp.ccific: procedures or torns,

. Tho MBNQA prcce .. ls sbcwn In flg. 1-10. An applicilill sends lbooomplolOil appli. ea'l1~ ID NIST. Th:is applicatioo is thell subjcct:ed to .a fust-round mrie:w by a team of Baldrig. """""""". The board of B oldrise examiners oorui"" of highly qualified ""jun_ teen from • vo.lety "'-!iclds. !udg es OVol.,1O tho scoring on Ill. "pplication to dt.U!tmine if the appliQIDI will continue to consensus. During the COQl"eIl5US" phase, a group of exarnin~ en who 5COtC.d 111e; originAl Bpplicanon determines; a consensus score for each of the Items, Oocc coesensus is reached and a consensus report written, judges then mak:e. III s:ite--vi~t cietmntn.o.tion. A rite visit typi~y is II; ~-Wl!l.cll: vi&.it by a. 1:t;iUU of rour to m examiners wbe produce a slt:e.-'lJisi~ ~pon. Thl:. site-visit reports. Bp!; 11$~ by rb~ jtldges. is tbe bub of detrnniIling the fino! MBNQA wit",.,..

1 Lead.robJt>

1.1 1Aade~1,;p Ily<= , " SO

l.l Company Rosp<H1<ibill<r 0I1d CiJUo",lUp , , • 40

StratcglcPlmm...1;:

2.1 Stt.l1qy I)cvcloprne..tLt Pr'OI:le.s.s .•.•• , •.• _ _ •••••••• , •• ,.to 2.2 Co.mPUiYSlr8tc~ , ••.• " .. ,.,. ,,4j

Cu.(Jaii!randMatkl:t~ 0.0.' ,.,., •• , 0.'.' o ••••••••• 0-

3.! CUS"' ........ M.d.:'KnowIod. " .... , .... ,. , .. 411 :l,2 CUSIOme::r SaUsfEtiOD IIDCI RelJIiMlihip Eohuceman , ..•.• 45 b\tOr'lft.tfrI.n and ADaJ,sb

4,) Mc:amrelnUl:l ~d ADIIlysis Df Pedcnrumce . 50

4.2 !nfQIUl.tioo Monqomeot , ' . 40

lIum.an RaclUl'Cl!I F'oc.us

';,.1 "i¥OrkS}lUCmS '0" 0.'.""" . 35

5.2 IimplOj« EdueoDoo, Tminlng ..... novelop"""" . lS

l.J limployoe WoIl-B<Ioi uui S._. , , lS

PrOl:QS Ma.n .. ~

6.1 M~ of PJD[luc=l iDd Senicc PIoocste$ __ . '4:5

6,2. M8l'.IBgemellt of Bu&toess Processes _ •. lS

6.) MUlaaemt:lIt or SufJpott P'I'oI2Iues , . , • _ ••••••. , •.. 15

Jl1I!ifD8S5Res.uJ.ts:

1.1 Cuo1=«"""'b.... " 125

1 .• FI cialuui_R...nl " llS

1.3 H Ro."""" R«ul1< SO

7,4 Org ""tIoIJ.Bli<.&su1lo "." I~O

1btalPci[l~

F!l!!litIlICk fI*rt~ "~lIgrt

Fl:!!dback Rt~ta .,.,.-

FlcJ;In 1·11} MBNQA~, (SoIItle: FouodUitll!I 1m" !he; Mlkglln B.Jdrir N..otIIl QuiIllI)' Awml, '2002 ~U:ri. rat Pcrf(l~ce.E!;a:~UCIl __ )

, .
un
15
lIS
..,
80
!S I
... I
'!
1000 !
1· As shown In Fig. 1-9, !ccdback reports are provided 10 the applioanl at up to three ""ae< of lb. MBNQA pm«os. Many orgllIli""uons b"", f<>wld th_ report. very b<:lpfUl atld .'" them as tbe bo." of P!>!IDin, for cveraIJ. improvomen, of the OrganiZlltion ""d fo< driving improvement in business l1!;$ulI5.

SIlt·Sigm.

produers with mOlly OOt'OpOn<mts typically ha ve m"'1 opportunities for hilore '" dof«" to eceur, Motorola developed Ill_ six-sdgma progn.m ill the tate 1980 .... "'po,"" to the . demand for IIleir prod",,", 111< focus of .ix·';gtDII i. reducing ..n.bility in key prod." ~uallty ebmc_ to th.leveI 01 whleb r.ilu~. or defects ere extremely unIiltdy.

Figruc l-I le shows. normal pmbability disln'butiOll os • model fer a quolity ohoracterinic with the specjfic!l.lion limi.t! It three standard devianons 011 eilh~ sidto of the. lll~, Now it lUtni out that in this situation the. probability of producmg iii. product wi thin these sp~ifiC:DtionS is. 0.99731 which COIT~C~ to 2700 part90 per nu'Uion (pptn) d.eiecti'Yc. This 150 referreu \0 as. three-sigma qulI.Uty pertormanl:!e:. and it actually soonds peeny good, However, $Dppos.e we beve iii product that CDllsists of an II.SSem· b Iy of lD(] c:omponent!i or p&.rt$ iiWd all 100 of these pat1$ mUll be nondefectree for the.

SpK,llrrllt. ±l SlIma :i2Siilma ~'Slgma ~S:l8ml is Sil8ml ±tiSl,2ml

P'mlllt -.!IIII .s,. 6&.27

9S.""S

9U3

99.9931 !iII).9!l99'l! !;9.99mgl

.. DcIK .... 31:7lOO .. "" 2100

" OS!

1lJIO'

'JO<.lIriI :1:1 Sigma ±2Sigma :1:3$11I'I'1II :14 SI'rM t:5SIIi:IDa ::t6SfliIma

"~rtdI fI1sl~. ~fIICS ,"",

159_13

!ill.3:t

99.3l'1O

993'67.0 9!il.99!J66Ii_

~IMflc:I:{\I~ omoo "'",00 66110 r;no 113

',A

'-.-.-

'_--

.~'

product to function !>l!JtisfactoriIy, The probability mat atJ.y specific unit of product is nondl!.fective is

0.m3 x 0.9~73 x ... x Q.9913 = (O.9!l73)'OO ~ 0.1631

That Is, obou, 23,7% of tho PrOO"OIS produced ued er tbree.,igma qualilY will b. defective, This: is not 8Jl acceptabtc. ermaticn, because many products used by today's society ere made lip of many compOnents. Even I relathPcly simple s.ervjc~ fU;:tiviry, such as g, vjsit by a family of four to a fasl~food restaurant, cao involve the wcmbly of several eeaen co:mpO'c:~ts_ An &.ur.omobile. hili' about 200,000 mmpon.enrs and Ern airplane has several million!

The Momrola six.-sigrn. con.c:cpt is: to reduce the varl.a.biliry in the process: So thar the SP'ci!ioation limits are ID: standard dovi.'Kms fiom tho moon. Thon, as showll in Fill. 1-110. Ill"'" "ill only be .bou' Z parts por bWlo" d.fecti.e. Undor six·,I~ma qaalit},> Ibe probebill,)! that any specific unit of lbol1ypothet!cal product ebove i. _dofuctive is 0.9999998.

or D.2 ppm, :a. much bette.r i5l:roation. .

\Voon lhe :six~sjgtrll!l c:.onct:pl was initially developed, an IlS!iJ,lInptlon was made dllll:

. when the process reached me six~sigma quality level, me process mean was sull subject '0 di!l1lrl>_ ea tho, coeld cause it to .hift by as much .. U ,tandood deviations off targ~l. This sitllition is SJlO'UI1l in FiS. )·11 b_ Under this 5(:~aito. a .!iix·sigma pr~ass would produce about 3,4 ppm defec~v.,

Thea is iiUl !pp:lltent inconsistencY in this_ N. we will di5CUSS in Chapter 7 oJl.proc~ capability, WI! can only make predic.ti.oru. about precess perfcttnance wben the precess ~s stable; that IS, wh~ the mcao (and standard deviation, roo) is mnstaut. If the _~ u drifting aoollll.!l. and ends up B..5i mucn fJ.!i 1.5 stMdatr::i de.v:hltil)US off 1t:l'J1!;;4 I predietton of 3.4 ppm defecnve mry uct be very reliable, becA\lSoe the mCM migh[:!:hift by more thee the "allowed" 1.5 .standard deviations_ Process pl:.'ffonaaoa im~t pn:dIetable unles.!i lbe.

process b-ebavioT is stable. ., '

However. no process or S)ls(em is ever trOly mbJt;, ami e.ve1li m the best a~ slruatEo:os' distmbance.!i occur. Tbe cceeept of a six-ri~1. procMi is one way ro model this- beh~or, Lih all models, u's probollly not ",octly right, bUI 11 has prevea 10 be • useful woy to think

about proce.s~ performance. _

Motorola esrablisbed six,sigm., as both an objective.tOr the ccrporaucn aIld II' a focal poin'l<>r process and pIOd." q"alil)' iInp"",ement _. In recent ye .... sis .. i.",. bas spread beyond Motorola and has come to e:llcomp_.a.ss much :more:. l~ has: be~ tit prngr~

. for improving <0'1''''''''' "uri"",' pedonnatloe by bod! ~rmnng quali,!, and porng iiltt~tion ro redur;ing. eoJl!. Compani~s ilwol'\l~ in a six-,SlJtDa effort utilize s-peClally trained jndividual s, called Blru:k Bolt! (]lB,) and Mast.". Black Bolu (MEIB.). III lasd koiml! focured on pwjocts thaI hayo both quality mel business. (econOmic? impACts f~ ,the

a.ni.zltiw:J," The BE S aDd ~B.s hllo't.le specialized training and education on stmll,sueal ~ods and Ib" quali')! and pro", ss imprO'l<IDen' tool! in tN. ,,,,,[book !bat equips tham ,0 funclion as !eam ",.do". focilit.IOI>, and problem solver s, The papar by Hoed (]OO1) describes tbf! ecmpoaents of n rypicllI. BB edueElttion program. BE:!li and MEBs utilize. a specific live-step problem-solving approacb: Dolin e, M ... we, Analrzo, Im~ and Co.ttoI (DMAlC). The DMAIC UlIIIlOlVCl!i< utilizes ",",,,,,I cl""~. de$lgned oxperunen~. proi:CSs capabHiry anal~is. measurement sy.stern.s c.tpa.'bLlity stodle.!i. And mlffiy orne.r baste. stens tical tool!.

Six-sigma hu b~c.n mui:h more successful tb ... n its ptcdcc:essors, notably T~ ~ project-hy-prOject eppmaeh alJd the fOC'llS 0.8 obtaining impl'"CI'Veme.nt.in bonom-~ne, b~L!i1· neSS results has b!!!!l1 instrumental in olxainlng, manijlgement comrmtment to m-Sl gmili.

Anelber major componCD[ in obtaining !l1l:U.SS L! driving the proper deploymeat of etati<ticai methods into the right places i. the o.pniz.tion. The DMAlC problem-sol,,",s frame~ is an Impcrtanrpart of thi.s.

J",t-In-T.., e, Loan Manulacluring, Poko· Yoke, and Oth."

There have been many initiatives .&~ to improving the prodllClian system_ Some of these include the. Just-in-Time approa.ch cm.pha:!ing iD,·proc.eH in'Y!:IllOzy :redu,ction! reptd set-up. ead e pWl-'YP' prodllOtiOO 'Y"""': Poka-Yoke or mistake-proofing of Jl«lco.ues, the Toyota production system and o!hct Japanese manuiacruring ledmiQues (with ecce popular maIlogement books by tbale name.): =gineerlng: theory of ,"",,,oln .. : agll. rnat1uf8cttl:cing~ lean manuf£lcturl,n&~ and ,91:) 00_ MQst of these. 4prngrams" decote far too little attentiOll to variabilily :reduction... It's virruaDy :impossible rc reduce. the in-pI'OCe5S illve.nI,ory or operp,~ III p"lll-type, agile, or lean production system when a lillie and unp.redictabk: fiaction of the prol;:esJ. output is defective.. Sucb effortS 'Will not achieve their full p-otentW wimom a major focus on statistical methods for proces, improvement and vanebilny reducdcn to 'ocomp",y them.

1 ·4.l The Unk Between Quolity and Productivity

Producing high·quality prcdcce in the modem indwtrlal.nvironm"O';. not ''''Y. A sign.i1ica21t aspect of the. problem it; tht:o rHlpid evormlon of tec,hnoloJ)' _ The lut 20 )'1!.U$l ilia'll!!: 5em an explosion af 2clmolcgy in $llr:h diverse fields as elecnon.l.c$1 IMtallUIgy, eeremles, composite matedal!i, bicteehnology. 'and tDe. chemical. and phlU'mRccutica1 scfenees, which has ~d in many n.e.w produl:ts and Set\ljC;~5_ For example,. ip iii!. electronics field the. de'ICloprnenl of me integraled c.iJt:ujt bas revolutionized the. de:sip and m.a:nu:fac. ture of OOIDp'Ut=ri and roM}' c1r;c-~nic affil:e products. Bade intelll8ted cirt.uit technolaiY boo been supplanted by l_-&coIo integ)"ation (LSn ",d ,cry Wge'''''alo integration (VLSI) technoloiY, with axresponding developments in seuUe;oodnc,tor design and man~ "factmio~. WIlen lechnologioal _cos 0= ropidlY and when the new technologl .. are used qujcJdy to explon competitive o<ivant'll'" 1hc problems of ""Igning and mann. Iilcrurin, product! of superior qualily ... _dy compEcated.

Often, too little eneadcn ie paid to achievinl!!; all dlroensions of aD Optimal processeconomy. effic!onoy. prOOuotiviry. ...d quali')!. affective guali')! .improvern"", ean be insttume:ntB.I. in inQUSing productivil}' and tEduclng cost To illustrate, caWder we manufuctara of iIII mechanical O)mponent used in a eoplcr machine. The parts are manufactured in • machining pro'''' at a tOte of .pproximntely 100 P"'" per day. Por ymou s rees ens, the process js oporming at • ilm-P"" yielrl of .bou, 75%. (That is. abou, 75% of lb. process output c:oruonns la specificatioes, aild about 25'- of the ouqml is nonecntormmg.) About ro'lI> of lIle f.nonE (th. 25% nonoooiormingj can b. rOWQ£);od in'o lin '=P" able prodllO~ and the rest mwt be scrapped, The direct manufitctming cost through Ibis stage of production per pan is appronmatelY S20. P.am. dun CEm be reworked inwr a.c. odditioool pmcesoing ch_ of $4. Therefore. the rnMlufacturing "''' per good pan pro-

duced is .

Co.<t/good part ~ $W(iO~: $4(15) • J22.B9

No,. IIlat Ib, total yicld hom this process. oftor reworking, is 90 geed p<IU per o.y.

--

An i:llginel:ritlg ~ru.dy of thia precess ~e:.W thl!Jl excessive precess varinbilil'j is reS'p~!;iible ror tlJe extrl:'mcly b.i~ fiIllo':'l A new Statisriciil ~1o~s---cDntJol procedure is. implem~ted !:hnt reduces '\Iariabdiry. Md IXIflSieljueCl:tl)' the. process' flllJeut ~iBScS from 2)% to 5,,", Of <be 5% r"uoll! produced, ebout 60% can be reworked • end 40% ere scrapped, Aft<r <be process-ccctrcl pragr6ll1 is implemented. tile ]'Il4tIof"ruting cos, I""

good port ~oducod is '

c."".""d ~". ~ $20(lDO)+$4(l) _ $20,53

~..-- 93

Nou: that the w:nallatiOD of St:Zl.tistiCIH process contrnl end me .red.I.u.ncn of variability iIh~ fuUiJ'L1tG result ill a 10.,3% :teductiOtl in mimuftlctw:i.Dg C!osts. Funh~e~ productivity is up by '"'""" 10%; 93 gOod parts are produced 00<0 day as "I'I'osod to 90 good parts pte"iDusly. '!hl.s amoontSi ItO III in~~ mpt'~r..jo" capl!lcHy of il1n1oSl10%: wnhcl,1t~ additional invcs~~ in c.quiprnent, wwkfcM 01" ovet'MB.d. EifoI:'u; [fJ nnpro:ve this precess by other mi!.th,oos. (such as [use-in-time, lean manutacturing, ete .. ) nre likely 1.0 be oomple-tely in~ffective ~W the basic problem Df ~ce.ssive \lariabUil)' i.E Solvp:CI.

14.3 Qrn>Jity Coot.

Fmanciai conllcl.s are a:c Ireponant part of business maaageroeet. 1"b.ese fipMciBl coatrols :involve. a O)rop_woo of ectcel and budgeted costs, along wilh analysis and action on th~ differ~ces. b&Wee!] actual and budget- It is eustomery to llipply dese fimrnl;:,j_al c..onttots an 1;\ dep~ent or tuDI;:,tiontJl1e.'Ye1, For many )'~, lh~ '!,Va.'! no direct effort to reeesure Of ac:cOi.mt foc me coats of the: quality fuacdon, How~l:!r, mmy o:rgan;zatioml, now foImall)' ev lIlu". th. 00$1 .... oci ... d with qlillllty_ Thor. "" "wml reasons why <he 00;1 of qmility :sooWd be ~plidtly considered 'ill :an organization. These in~b.l.dc !he following;

1. The tneeeese ill the cost of quality beceuse of Ib!!. increase in tbe ~omplcxily of manufac:lUred products associated witil ad.vanr.es in technology

1. Increasing awareness of life cycle I;.QSlS. inch.!dhig :rnmte:n"anc!, -span. parts, IBlld tho cost of field IaiIutes

3. QUiility engW~.!i and mlWagetS t:af,J most effeciively comnnrnil:.a'tti '1I'l1llity issoes in II way ,.hat :rnan~,FrDenl underulrWi!;.

A5 a resclt, q:uE!illty c:os~ bave emerged as III .fimwcW conttol tool for O1U2lge.ment W1d as

en ;:Cd in identifying opportDnities f01 redi..II:ing quality OI},ns_ _ _, _ .

Gl:oeully speaking, qualiTY costa are ll:Io~ catc.Jorie.s of ecsts that ere a5S~_~!~ With producing, identifying, a v aiding, or ~Ilg prndi.l,cts mat do,not meet ;e-q~~t!i, Many mam.lf:acturi'Ilg and servke OfS,aD1~.I1tlOn.s I,l.SC fOur ca-regones. of ~I.liiliry costs. preVlmtion CO.!iUi, awnlisBl ccere, imernal fai..1m'~, costs, and ~tema1.fail.ure costs. T~ese cost ClII~oric~ ate strawn JIll "Table. 1-4, WB 1I0W diseuse these cate.gones m recre dc.tBll

P~~ntiQn~~ .

PreventiC:il costs are th~e costs !l5lSoci~ with effurt5: in d~j", end wlU].llfaerunng Uiat ~ directed towud the p:revct'Ltion cf 'IIDIIc-ouforrmlIlce. BTOadly s:pc;aki.ng, p~tiM coats are all costs inCUIIed in an -effort to "mate it rtBb[ ,the, :Il.J1Iit time." The Importem subcategcdes of preventioll I:mlt folll:lW.

;-

QU&Hty pllumhlg and mgioee:ring.. Costs iB..S5!ociate.d widllhe creation of the. over .. _ "u- quality pl"" .... inspection 1'1 ... <he reliabili<y plan, <be dara system, ""d all _ SpOcieliz,:rl 1'1"", end .oov;i~"" of til, q"olity • .,<UralleO :fuiIction; th, pr,~.,.tiO" of I1lOrlUIIls 'l'Id J?fOCodLIrO' usee ttl o.oun\Ulioato tho quolity plan; aod tbe ""'''' of Ruditi...g the system,

New products r<Mew. Cost> of tho p •• paradon of bid proposals. til. O'!Ialu",",o of new dl:Sign.5 from a quality viewpoint" r.b~ preparation of tes!.S end experlme.ntlll programs to evaluate !lie performaace cf new products, i!I.od orner .quality ~liviLi_e:s during the de.ve1opm,ctJl aod preproducdcu :itagl:!S of new productJ a' deetgcs.

Prodnct/pro""", """1:1'_ 0><), incurred durillg Ib'_ design of ... product or til. sejeenoe of Ib!!. prcductien precesses that are mte:lded 1.0 lmprove the. O"\IeraU quality of tho produOl_ for e ..."ple. an orgmiz:ation may decide '" make • p>nio- 111m citc:uit ~t rl:dundant bececse this. will bcreese th~ lcliabilit9 of the prcdccr by i.t.I~mg the rneen time, berween failures, AJ.ternati"Ye.l)" it may declde to n:tanufaen:tre a (:{m::IpOnellt Us.l..Dg p!OCI:SS A other m.sn process B, because process A is. capelbl~ of produciQg the product at tightei" reierences, "Which "Will result in fitW!t I!SG~bJy -a.nd rna.tll,l.'ft!cruringpro'blem.s.1'hi.5_mayiflc.lllde ill 'Ij,Ii!!l"ld01:'s 1""""=", so the COOt of doaJiog wid! other then tho lowest biddet "''l' also be , P"'"

Process <""""I. TIl. =t of prcces .. oontrol techDiq""', Stroh os _troI ch ...... th" mouhcr the marmfilcruring process in lim eJfun ttl reduce variation ana build q\.!ality into the product,

Bam-in. 'Tbt=: cost of p!1:!;ShipmeDl op~tir;J(! of I}:II:: prod1l(:t to preve!lt ~l)'·liIe faj!.. ore,;n tllo [Lel~_

'l'ri!lnl!>t. The cost of d.",.lop;ng, preparing, ilnpl'!II<Il!i!li. operatlng, end tnain<>loing formal troining P"'KIoms for q"ali<;"

Qnoll(y data ""'lulsl!!." 'nd "'alysls. TO. '05t of """""g the quallty do", 'Y'"'''' '[(10 BClJ.uire dam on prOdUCt B..C.d precess performance, s.ko lh~ (:081: of l!Dalyzing "",50 d ... to idOntil'y problems. It includes th. work of 'U!lIllWiling ""d p"bliohiog q1lllli')' !nfur:m.lioo tor manage""""

1

!

1 t ,

l

~ j

! I

i

,

i j

~ClltIrnlCMU

Ql.I;!1it)' p!1UII'W\a lad dlgiJlecriClil ~ pwOuc;[S reYiew PI:~I;~I~de.sign P1oc:EIssc.om:rtll

13um-Jn

T_ ..

Qr;laUty d.am. ;M:qw.sitio~ andIlI.D.4.I.ylit:

Appr.ll5aJ Costs

Inspc~ ;md. tcU of i1v;omi.JJl!i IDlucrNil PIoduet ~ Old! 1e:51

M;fI~s owl seerees eoo:sume.d M:rrl.nr.a.ioiQS &C~:v 01 Est I!:qlliplD~!IJ

IDtern1.IFlilIJreCMu SO<tp

Ito""'"

!lo,." Fail.w-e:m~eis Do'ill'~e ThMln!i!iu

Dolt,Il'lgntili.nB (otf·spt!tmJ)

&tntliilt FIlilurc: CoUlI ComptQln,1 wJ(I~fI.I:

R.etume4 .pt:odl.!(:[/~ Wam..'I'ohI!aos

ll&."bilkycllSl:!; "'~t~

-~

ApPl':aiHI Ctl5t&

Appraiu.l costs Ilte Ilmsl!. costs !!ssociatc.d with meuudng. !:valllaq,ng, or auditiD8 proda nets, ccrnponeuts. WId pu.rehrlS~ tJ:l1Ltl:ria1s to ensure conforrn:ance [0 the sl8DdlU'<k that have beeD Impesed. Thes.e com ~, incurred 10 def:erminl! the coodilicn of the prod1J:::t from a quality viewpoint aDd ensure that it conforms to SpeC~tions., Tn!!; major SUbCB,t". egories follow.

InspectiOD and test .of mcomin:g material. Costs associated with me inspectioo and !t.$ting of all ""''''rial. n;. sul>c'tegory iru:ludes J<ceNlng mlP,dion ond ""':

Inspection, 't!!:U, BIlC evaluation at the 'Y~c:r'5 facility; iItd l periodic: a\.!dit of tht:o quality-assurance system. Till. could also include inli1lplan' vee dors.

Preduet Inspeedon Dnd test, The CO" of cllecl::ing the ccnfOnnaIlCO of the produm throughout its. various 5tag~5 J;)f manufacruring, i:nc!ndioK finlBl eccepteaee testing, pacldng and 5bipping ch~\ and any test done at the C-U5tomU'S f.ci.li.lies prior to Illrning tile product OVet 10 tI>c CU_. This al", includes lifo ""ting, environmental "'""8, and reli'blli<y testing.

Material! and services consumed. The cost of material and products coasemed in a destruoti ve ,os, 01 devalued oy ,oliabllity rests.

Maintaining act:u:racy of lest equJpnient. 1lle. cost of opcrar:itl.g a system !hat keeps the measuring instruments and equiP~t in calibrar..ioo.

Internal FIl.l-ure Ceste

Internal faiJure cces are tncorred when prodocrs, compcncnIS. mare.rials. and $et'Yi0C5 faD. to .... t quality requiremanrs, on~ !his failI!re i. discovered prior to doli,Ol)' of tho product to [be -customer. "1'hese ccse ~ld disappear if lhere were no deff!ClS in the product. TIl<' !llJ!iOr subonteg<l!ie< of intemol flIiI.re "" ... follow.

Scrap. The net Ices of labor, material, and overbMd resulting from defective prod~ act thlU cannot economically be repaired or 1l5e.d.

Rework. 'The I;()5t of correcting nonconforming u:njlS !O mat they mee, specifications, In ,some. marJ'll.facturlng operadons rework costs include additional operedcns or ~ in the. mULu:fucturfug process that are crelued to solve either chrooic ddects Or sporadic defeclS.

Retest. 'The cost of reinspecticn and f~ling of producti mat h.a ..... e undergone .rewotk or other modifiC!:I_tiom.

Failure analy$l5. The cost mclltted to detarmine tho causes of product failures. Downtime. The COSt of idle production fadljties tb£lt results from nonccnformence to reqetremenrs. The. ptOOuctioo. line may bel down because of noncon:fotming ralY m,ltcriw5 !;upplied by I supplier, whieh went undlscovered :in receiving inspection, YI.ld resses, The ccat Df proc ... yields th .. are lower than might be ali1!in.ble by

impto""d controls (for example, soft-driDl< ccnuteer that are o,",rfilled because of excessive Yarilbility jn the filling equipment).

nowngradlJ>!lialf.opecing. The price differential bOlIV"" til. normal selling price. and ;my sdlinj price. thai might be obtained for III. produC( that does not mee( dJe customer's reqWremCllts, Downgrading is a common pracdce in the. textile., Elpparel goods, aruiole<trooi"" ind.,tri es. Tho problom with downgnding I< tha, pmduc ts

SiOld do 1101 recover me full contribl!.tion mugin to. profit !lind overhead ts do prod. UGU that co-Uform to tl.\e Dsu81specificlltions.

E~nal FIIIII,'IJ'r1!l Coses

Ex,.",al taihI .. ""'Ill OOCOr when Ibe prod.ot dCC$ nc< perform saU5hc,crily lifter It is ,up. plied 10 the cusioecer.These cow woUld also disaW~ if ev«y unit of produce conformed to requiremeura. Sllbai.regorie.9 of external failure Ct:lsts follow.

Complaint adjusCneDt. AD c:os.ts uf invcstigation and adjustment of justified complaint> attributable to tho nonccnfOl'llling product.

Returned ptoductlrnaterlal. All = ... oci"od with receipt, hOJldliug, and .. - placement of the noncwfon::ning prOdUCI or material mat is rerureed from me field.

Warranty charges. All COSts involved in service to CUSLQmer.!i under warranty contracts.

lJablUty costs, Coots or awar<!.i incurred from product liability litigation.

Indirect casts. In: addition to dlrecr D_pelnting costs of external failun:.s, tbcn: ate a signiflcat):[ number of indire.et costs. 'These are ilK:WIed because of customer dis· ..tisf.c_ with tho level of quollty of tI>o delivered product. h1<Ilrect "",IS may reflect tb~ customer's attitude- toward thl: compAny, They mcfuck the COOlS of Joss of business teputedon, loss of fumr~ business, .and 10S!i of rnu.~t root till' in ev irably ","ult> from delivering prod."" and services Ib .. do not confcrm to the C;11Sl.amet·.5 expel:ta_tions re-sarding fituess fer use.

The AnaJy,is lind Us;e of Q~1ity Cosu

HD'Y.i' .Large are quality oost!i7 The answer, of ecurse, depends (In the type of organiz.allClo and tile SllCC05$ of their quAlity impro'cmOlll elf"". In sene orgomizatiOllS quality COQ :are 4% or 5% of sales, whereas in othe~ t:hey can be ea mit! :ELS 3:5% or 40% of WeI, Cbvi=ly, jhe ccsr of quality will be very Iliff.,.,,! for • higb-",chDoIogy cOmpil,er mOJlUfactmu than for _a typical servlce indLUDy. such U D departrnant store 0{ hotel ehlin, In most orgEtnizatic:ms, however, qu.aJjty costs 1U'.e higher than ~ary, iOd manDjement should roW oo.<lnuinl! <!forts to appraise, .".zyz." ODd reduce til ... cas ...

'The usefuJ.ncss of qualiry costs st~ nom the leverage dl'ecti Iilat is, drillm inves:t,ad, in prevention !T,Id appniu.l bl:ve I!I payoff in rroducing cIollm mcuned in mmal and exler-nal faiImu thm excoed. tile originol mvostmtm. Por OXlUIlpk, • dollar invested m PI"""'· 000 may "rum SI 0 or $100 (or more) in savitl&, from reduced intemol arui external tailuros .

Quality.t:e,;t onalySCs have os !heir prinCipal objective cos. roductioo wougb identification of imp~.menr cpportnnities. 'fhj! is. oft:c;D dono with f1 Pareto analysis. The. P!t9:o Bllaly;i. OOIl.!'S<S of Id,ntifylng quality ,os .. by <n!Og<J<)'. or by product, 0' by type of defect or nonconformity, For- example, lnspeedon of the q_uallty.COSl infonn;nticn in Taele 1·5 concmtlng rlefeets or oonooaformiti .. in !he iIS.ornI>ly of electrceie compcn en " 011t<l primed circuit boards reveBls that insufficient solder is lbe highsst guailiy Cll$t incurred in !hii operation. Inseffiedenr seIder :a.ccoun15 for 42% of die total deIects in this pBIticulnr typo of board and for aImo,t 52\1b of til. ""ol scap and rework costs. If tile w ave s old..process can be impro~ tben there will be dramatic rerlllctions ill the. CO.5[ of qtlality,

How mnch reeaeticn in quality costs is pos<lbl.1 Altbough the =1 of quality in many CrganiUtiOIlS can be :$ignific::andy reduced, il j:s unrealistic ro expect it cAD be reduced to zero. Before !hOI 1 eve 1 of porlonnanc. I. reached, the incremental coot> of prevention and

'tab'. 1 ~S Mon!hl'JI QIJ.~iqr..cO!lU lnlormiuien. fo:r ~Ulrnhl., ,w Prin[r;d Orclltt btds

IYP< ofD,rcot parci::o.tgf _paod
"I1::u1D1!fea.s; R,e.IiIMkCClllirJ
hm.\tIicicll150lder oil SJ7.soo,00 (52"')
MLsali!Tlcd compol:lC;l:It..!i 21 1,2.000.00
lJcf.c:cab:e t:ompon-c.nlS 15 8,Il00,00
, Mlmni eompao.eag 10 5.100.00
Cold solder jcmts 5,000.00
All oi:hcr causes S ~
Total! 100 $71.200.00 appr:a.isal wlll rise more r:apidly than me resulting COst reductions. HoweYl::l', paying i!.[[e.'D-' tion to qu ality ~G in ~jllncti.on with n fOCl.l!itio dfon on variability reduction has the capability of IOducing quality coses by 50% or 60'1> pIO'lid.n tho! "" orgmrize<l .ifort has ,previou.$1y existed. 1bi1ii cost redncnoo also follows the. Pareto principle; thll.t il, most of ~e cost reductlcDS will come from ilttaocking the fr:v.o problems rnat lUe, re.sp:01loEtl''b1e fer the

majeril)' of qU1IIlty 00"'. .

Tn ""a1yzing quollty 00'" and iD furmulating plAns fer ,educing th. cool of qulll;ty. i, is. im:ponLUlt to note t,be. role of preVeIltiOIl and appraisal. MMy orgaW.Utio!lS devote fu too Jl'!:l,iCb ilion to appnrisll and Dot ellOUgh ro ~lion.. This is; an easy mistake fer an organization [0 maU.. because appraisal 005iti me often budget line items :in m-anufacro:rmg, On the orner hand. p:~c.venti.on costs rna)! not be rrn,uincly budgeted items. It is not unusual to :find in the early stage&; of a quality-cost program that appraisal costs. rue eight or '£en times me magoimde of ~ention OOSts. 'Ibis is probably IV) unreasonable ratio, 8s dollars .pont in prevention hav e a much great.,. payback than do clol!oni spent in appraiW.

Generating the qll.aJity..f;OSt figuR:5 is not always easy, because molt qu.!lily~cO,SlICBt· egories are 1lO[ a direct compone..Tlt In the accounting retortU: of .the organization_ Consequently, it may be difficult to obtain exttetnely accurate .information on ll'Je rost6 incurred with respect to the vBriotls categories, The orsan:izilition's. ar:COUDtiug 'YSlem can provide information on those qllality-cost ceregcdes f:hat coincide whb. the usual business SCCO\lnlS. sucb lUI, for example, prodll~l tes.1;ing and evelcadcn, In additiod, ma.n)! eompo.· nies will have detaiJe_d infonna.tioD Ot'i VMious ~teaortcs of failure cost. 'The inform_!ujoo .for ~OSl caiegodes for which execr accoontinl information i.s not available should be gen. erate.d by using estimales.. 1M. in som_c, cases. b:l creating spcc.1:o.l monitoring and surveillance proc:~u:re:s to accumulate those C:OSts ewer Ihe :srudy period.

The ,""orting of quality ODS" i.! woolly done on • hasis tho! penni,. slnightfwwanl evaluation by mArUl,i~t. MenRger:ii want quality costs expressed in an judex that comp ares qnoll'y cost with tho opportmUl)' fot qulllity ecst Con"'IU",tly, the ",ual m,dJo~ of repOtti.ns quality COSIUi is in me form of a ratio, where the numerator is quality-cost dollars and me denominator is $Orne. melU-lll'r!; of activity. such as (l) pours cf direct produl:-tion labor. (2) dollMs of diroct production labor. (3) doIIaIs of pro" .. mg 00.", (4) doll:'" of manuf_s. coot. (S) doll"'" of ,alOl, or (6) units of product

Upper manlg=.ent may warn II. slSlldard I!tlainsr wbich to comp~ tb.e curreta quality-CM' fig1lr<$_ It is difficult 10 obtain .bsoJu,. &bndaJ;d, and almos( •• difficult to obtain quality-c:Ost levels of other I:OmpanicJ; in \he. .!iMDe! iDdus[t}'. Therefore, lhe ~a1

, ;

approlllCh ii to I:ompare current pC!dcrm.ance with past performance sc taat, in effect. q~--lX'61 programs [eport variances from past performance. 1be&t: tread analyses .are pdmmly , device for dcl«ling dopartures from,stBtldard And for bringing the!!! to tho attention. of the appropria1e maaegers. The), are not .nece.sS,Bri]y in and of th~e1veg i device for ensuring qualify improvements.

, 'fbi> bri~I' OS ':' Btl in,.,..,lIIIg oboc","l"", Somo quallty-OOSl oollc<:1ion ""d analySIS e:lfons fail That IS. emrmber of companlas ha v e started quality·cost analysis ac:t.ivities. used them for some time, end then abandoned the programs- as ineffective, Them are several ~om whY,thi.s QCCI1I5-, Chief amen!!!; these is tai],lIflO: to 1l:5~ qLliillty-ce&t information as iii. m~ani9m for geuerudng lmpro .... ement opportunities. If we ose quality CoS1 infor""'boo'" scOIil=plog tool ooIy, ond do not make cowao.5 effolU to idontit'y probkm are .. end dovlllop tmprcved openting pmoe.:lures and prce eases, thoo the progtODl$ will not be totally "",oessful.

Another re~()n why quality-cost CODectiOD and analysu doesn't lead to useful results 1, that lD""'grn beeoee preoccupied widJ parleelin" in tho 000' fig ures. OVOTOmphasi& in treatini quality com B5 pa:rt Of the ecccunnng systems raaher then as a mBDZlg,ement Con- - acl toOl is a serious mi&tab. This approach greatly increases me &mOUn1 of time: required 10 do~e1op tho cost d .... ""alyze them, ond ldeJltify opportunities fur quality impmvo. m.on,.. ~ tho time required to gonerue and Btlelp.o the dota tncrea ses. mBtl'S'men! becomes more impatient and less convinced of tilt: ~fft:Ctivt.ne$$ of tbe II.Clivity. A11y pregrun thot 'PI>"= to man,,&O!Oe,t .. gol08 nowhere ls likely to be .Jl!llldonod. _

A final reasoe fol th~ failure of e gl,lality-cost program is £bat rnlmagem~l oflen Underestimateli th'e depth and extent of the commitment to prc:ventioo that pmst be 1!lBde, The. author has bad nurnemll$ opportunities to examine quality oost cliiltB in many ~Otopa~ .... , In companies without ,If,d ve quiillty improv.ment programs, the 0011 .... allocated to prevention rArely exceed 19& ro 2~ of revenue. This must be increased to It dlIeshold of ',boo, 5% 10 6% of revenue, ond these .ddiliOllai prevontion doll." muot be ..... t largely CD tho technical methods of qLJaliIy improvement, .. 0 oat on .".bllShiDg progIam s s ueb as TQM. zero defects, or odler similu activities. If manageme:nt '$ persis-lent in thil effort. tho. the coot of gOlllity will doer, ... ,ubstl!!l<ioll:l', The .. 00st ,ovings will typically begin to occur in one to two ye.EU1i'~ altbOt.1gtlt it ~ould be longOf in some com.panie:s.

Consumerism and product liability m:~ important reason! why quality, assurance is an imponw business SIta1~, Consumeris-.n is in part dlle to the seerniDgly large nu.mbt!:tof faiJllteS in the field of COllSUmr:r P~cts and dle perception tbli: service qualil)' is declining. llighly vi .. bk field feiluree often prompt !he qnestions of \\'betb" today" products. Are H good I1S their predecessors anrl whethu m8Tluf~ctl1:retS are really lateresled in quality_ The answer ro both of dlele quesdons is ~, MAnufacrure.r.s are always Vlta.lly ccnceraed abou; field faihnes because of be.&.vy external Mure COIitIi and the. related threat to !Mil- CDlllpetitive poshiOTJ_ Consequently, mtlst producers have made: produc,t improvements dirc~k:d toward reducing field failures_ For example, solld--s~ and integr.ted-cimljt technology ~ as gre,tly reduced tb. fiillure of cie<m>nic equipment that oace depended on tho eleetron tube. V"",ally every product line of today;, supencr to tba, of y.sterday.

--

'--

_______;"'_.'

CMswner di".tislii<:Iion and tll<o ge.nonl fediog th .. todoy', products are Won"," to their pIedec .. sees orioe fi<>m other phenomena, 0"" of th ... " the OJ<pm;oo in tho numberofprodu .... For oxampl ••• J% field·faiha, rate for. ~oorumor tpp~ with. prcducdon volume of 50.000 uni .. P" ~ moans 500 "old 1.,_. However, if tho production rl'[e. Is SOO,ooo units per year and the. fiel,j..fai1~ rare ~aui$ the same, than 5000 units wi11 fail jn the field. This i! cqni.vale:m. in the tot!1l:1umber of diuatLsfie.d customers, to a 10% fuilu.re rate at the lower production Ievel, Increa.tinl prod'Uc;tian volume inc:rel!ls.e;s the l1ability exposure of the mannfacl1.Jrer. El,'eJl in situations in whioh ~e ~lure n,le; declines, if the P.rodu.cti011 volu'm~ l:ncre1Ue!i mere rapidly tbao lh.!! decrease ill .failure rate, tbe tot:al number of 1;l.t$'tOme.rs who experil!Dc.c fililures wlll ,s-till ~1lS:'.

A SieCoDd aspect of the problem is that Consumer tolerance. for minor dd~ts" and. aesthotic problom, has ".creased r.onsid..,.wy. so lbar blomisb es, surf..,.-fil1ish defect>. nctsee, and eppeerance problems that were 0'Il.U toler!lred now atuaet attention and resulr in adverse c01l&u:mer reBdion. FInally, the compf:tl'l:ivt:IleUi o'f the mad.etplacl: forcea, many manu.fac:tnt'ers to introduce new designs Wore they ~ fun), evaltlau:d and u:.ste.d in ord~ to reml'ln competitive. These Ucady reltnses" of unproved des,ig1l5 lIte.a major reason for , new prod"" q"aIity WI""". Ev.nru&ly, th.r;. design problem ... , o~ ~.t !be .bill!'

failme sere eeenected with new productl often '"pPCIrIS the b<lief that tDdoy s quality "

inferior to Illat of y.".,.,-day. , .

Prod",,' U.bility is • ""'jar ,ocial, roatbt. ."d ,,,,,"Olllic f""",. The1egaJ oblig"tlOO of manufactured ,nd sellers to 'Com~lIIte for iojUtY or damage cecsed b)' d~e products Is nor 0 =t ph en omenon. The ccecepe of product Habillry has \MOon in owteace for many yean, but its c.mpbasis has changed recently. The first major product BabUity eese occurred in 1916 end w" tri«l before tho New y~ ~""" ~f Ap.,..... The conn held thilil In iWtonlobile. manufncrnrct had a prcduet liability oblii3inon to III CIU buyer ..... though the sales con""" was between the buyor .. d 0 third potty--rurmely. • "'" de....,. The direction of the law bAS alway, been that maJluf,,= or senors ee likely to incur ~; li:o.bWJ}I wh~ thl!y ha .... e been Ilmeasonillbly careless or oogligent in whAt they hAve designed. or produced. or bow they have produced it, In """"t_Y~, the oourtS b ave placed a more strinp( rule. in efiec[ r::alled strict U~~Uuy. 1\vo pnncJPJes are cbantcter!sric of strict liobUlty, Tho fir<t " • 'trong =pon&ibillty for bot» manufacturer and mercllandls",. requiring llmn.diat. respon:iiv...,,, to "",,~'lactory ~ualiry through product service. te.pair. or replacement of defective product. 'Ibis t!Xtends mtD till: pe.riod of ~ use by lhe cC'IUUme:r. By prodocing 110 product, Ihe manllfactn~~ and sellar muS1 aa:ept

. re'pOnsibility foc !be ultim,to wo of thot prodUcl-DOt oniy lor ,Is porlormone<, bitt oIso

for its cnv~ental eifecl:ii. the safeI)' &.!ipect5 of its use, and so forth, .

The s£cond principle in .... olves advut:i.5itt; and promotioo of the. ~m:t. Under 5~C.t product l'ability 011 advonl.oing ,tatem<nlS m",t be .upportllblo by vaIi<l oo~p~ qullIity 01' certifi~on dElia, cotD.p.NElble to lhat tu:JW m!rlntslned for prodll~ ldcntitic:ntion under

~Iatiom for s.uch pnxlucl$ as automobil!S.

The.se MO strict product 118bility prlnciples result in .stton.g preSiureoll manuflctur~ "", dlsoti .... torS. and mm:h..,,, to cleveiop and main",n alllgh .ogroe of fao~ollY based e:vidc.nct; conl:&rning the performance ilDd saflJty of their p.roductS. TI"ds- e.vidence ~Sl <""" n<>t only lb. quality of the product as it is dolive"" to tho ""';',..",.... but aI>O ,Ii durability OfJelitWillry, its protee:Uoo ftom pouibI.esidc c.ffeet.s or e.rt.VICOmnenW bai.atds. .. d it> ,afeti. ",peelS in =01 "S" A =g qulllity .... sur""'" b""gram CB1l belp mOll.go- men! in eB!iuring that this infonnAtion will be availahle, if needed. ,

In the Just few sec.tions. we. ha.ve dis;cu$!ied Ih~ philosophy of qualhy irnpwvtmJent, tM link between qulllity and producti"iry, and both economic aDd legal implic.~Oll' of qUality. 'l"hese are importam aspects of the mana.gcm~lu of quality within an orpni:2:atiO]l. There ae r;utain otber aspects of the overall management of quaJity tbst Warrant some attentiDn..

Manllg,eme.ru mest recognize tbat qUlility is. ill multiftt:eted entity, inc:orpOTEltlf.lg 1ht: oighl dimensions w. di"" .. ed in Seetion 1-1.1. For ronvenie.t ref..-e,"". Tablo H; summaril .. th .. e quality dimduiOllS.

A critical part of <h. ,t,..toKJc IllIl1lll:,mtllt or quality within MY""""'" is the reccgnitlon of these dimensions by maua.gement and the selection of ditnensions i!long which the 'business will compete. It will be l/t:ry difllcult to compete agaillst ~mpani~s. th .. 01lIl successfully "oomplish !his pan of the '''''lOgy.

A good example is the J epenese donU.:nM~ of the videocassette recorder (VCR) marI<u. The lap ..... tlid OOt invo.t the VCR; the first unit> for h= use were designed and prodIJCed in Europe and NOtth America. How ... r, the early VCR. pIOduced by Iheoo compaWes wet. ,cry umdi.bIe OIld fr.quently had hiZh levels of manufectadng defects. When the Japan.", enrered the milker, <bey .lootod to compere oIoog tho dimmtoion. of reliabil· ity and com"""""oo to ,tarulards (no dofem). This ,ttateg)' allowed them m quiokly dominate the market. In subseqcem yeatS, tbey expanded the dimensions of quality (0 :include added features, improved performance, easter mviceability, improved eesthedea, and so fon:h.. Th,ey have used total quality as a competitive weapon to rai!e the en.ttY 'blu'l1er [0 thls market SO his!> tWit it is virtually impoulblo 1'0< • new compedlor to enter,

Moo ... """"t m .. t do thl.5 t)'po of s""egic thinking ebcce quality. It is not 1lOC<!$Bl)' Iha,t the product b~ superior ill all oimenSlOll$ of quality, but rn,apaiemem must select and tleveIop tll<o "nlcllas" of qualiry '"""8 whlch tho company can suce .... fully oompet e, 'JYpically. lbe se dime"';ons will b. these that th. competition has forgo",", or Ignored, The Amerlcan. IWtoroobiJc lndustry hillS been 5i1Wercly impacled by forels,n compe:titOi's woo expertly praetiOb;! this m1!tegy.

The critical role oI 5uppli,ers in quality ntAMgement must noC be fOrgotten. In feet, supplier setecdcn ami supply chain ~eDt may be lbe most critil:al aspects af SUC~ I:CSsful quality matlagc:metlt .in. indusmea sueb El!i amomceve, aernspace, BDd el~tron.k:s. wbere '"or'f high percentng. 01 tho puts in the end i,.", arc m",.rllCmrod by outside SUp" pliers. Mally oompenies h ... instlwted ("""oJ supplier quality-improvement programs .. part of their own Interoal qualit)',irnpIOvcmont effor~, S.loction of .uppll'" based CD quBllty, !athe.duJ ~ and east, rather than OIl CMt eioee, is BlIO .a "i'it~l slD~gic manag~ decision thllt can have a long-term SignifiCBiU impac.t on owrall competi~:s.

1t is also critic.W mat man,Agem.ent recogni:z.e. thaI qualicy improvement must be. a totBl" I:ompanjl-wide: iilCtivity. and that evety o~ unit must ac.ti"i'ely paruc.iplilte.

t. PerfOlllJ.l,.lJC~ 1. R .... billIy l. DUrability

" S""","bility

5. AYheti.es

6. J=et.1!l.1U

7. Pcl:ccived .q~~

g, Con:fcrIlLlIl.tl:: to rtarll:IBIM

_____ .

ObtaioiD& tbi, panioip.rion is the """"",,bill.\), of (ODd;' rign;ncant ci1all..,ge to) serilcr manllgement. What Is the role of the. Qualily-a.s:!iurmct=. Of!a.ni"z.ati9fl in this effec..? The. respolllibility of quality assuranCe is to .. tisl maaagement in providing quality DSWIIIlOO for <be companies' products. Specilically. the q.aIity .... craeee function is • lechnology warehouse that contains the sb.1l..s and !eSOUKI!;.'!i necessary '0 gener3"te products of ac~l:' eble quallty ill <be !!WkOop)"' e. Quail\)' monog=,m .100 0 .. <be ~Dili\)' for <",01- ul.ting acd using quality-co5t iII..fo,nnaliotl. fOr identifying iJnprovem!!nt opportunities in lhe 0)" tem, and for molting the", Opportunitie, known '" higher mOllllg=eI1< II ;. bnportant to note, however, th') 01,. quality limed ... is ... ! re.p.",.JbI. ror quality. After .oil, the quality organization doeS Dot dasign. manufacrurej distribute. or $ernol! the product. Thus, th~ respcnslbillry fer quality Is disrrtbured throughout the. endre organization,

The phJl05op1ly of DominS, Juran, ond Foigenb .... implies, that rospolllibility fe, quali\)' spanS <be e.';'" organization. Howe""". there is a dang« 11>0' if we adopt the phi. lo"'!'by that "quoli\)' is everybody's jet." the. quoli\)' will become nobody's job. Thi.! is why quality plann;irJ& and BJl:alys.ili are lmpcrtam. Beeeuse quality irnprC'l/emlmt activities art; so broad, succe$ful elfcm. requir~ as an initial step, tOP mmageme.nt commitment.

• Tbi.s commitm!;n! involves ~pbui5 on UtIS in1pol'tan.cc: cf quaJJlYJ identification of the respective quaIity .rr:-sponsibilitietl of the various OrganizZl.tiOnai units, and explicit accecatability for quality improVement of !ill managers and employees in the. company.

Finally. Slrluegic mMage.me.nt of quallry in an organization must iLWolve all three ccropoaents di,cussed ... lier: quali\)' p1wrnlng. quolity "=1110<; aDd quiili\)' ccnect eed improvemeJJt. Furthermore, aU of the indiY'id,WllS in tbe orgaruzatiOil muse have an UlIdtr:standing of the basic tools of quality Improvement, Central amo~g thes~ rools are the alemetlt;uy !,tMistiesJ. coecepts iliat form the basis of ~s. centro] BDd tnlll: are usw fer the analysi:s of process data_ It is inCJQ.singly important thll e'lI9)'ODC in an organization, from top manage.mcnl to opc;r8iting pc:.r$oDnP:l, have en eweenese of'Da$j,c s'tltlstieal med:lods 1Illd of how these methods Of. useful in mao.Ilhc<w:iog. engineering design, .... developmeat and in the gellenu ~i.r.Ie:ss enviromJk::nt. Cenain individuals mun h~ higher levW of sltills~ for CJlBmple, tbo~ cngineeDi and mannid'S in the queliry-assurance function would genenilly he e:xpens in one or more EU"I$S of proc:e.ss. em1.trol, relilllbility M&in~ing, desisn of ~periment:s, at engineering data analy.sis. However, the key point is the philosophy thot mti,tical method.logy is e l .. gu.ge of CClmrn.rucntion about problemS thot enables manapmcnt to mobill~ resources IlI.pidly and 1:0 dficitmtly develop sDllitiont to sceh problems.

IMPORTANT TERMS AND CONCEPTS

A.Gct:pItnee .JlI.'Dpling Appmsllc.osts D~mil],i'S 14 poinlt Dcs:iped expcrime:llts DimmsiDnii of quality fimc95 fO[ use

LDU::maJ and cxtd'llld fuilu-rt- COSts ISl9OOQ,2000

N(]J]oomo:rmiAir: prOdLlct or lervice. ~lIJionctlm

P""""lliIbilily

Qw!.lit)' raiWIrULCle Quolllychnn_stlcs

Quality cootrollll.d lmprove;mQt Qu.nty~oerjnl

QI,II![t)' (]f !:;OofQIInZJ:Icc

. QnaJ.it)' of rlI:::SilD

Qnality flooninl

. Q'Itdi')l :a:/srcmJ ucl.standws Slx-Sigma

Spccificatio~s

S .. li.!liool jeeee .. ,,,,,001 (SPC) The)", .. Trilogy

The Matoolm Baldrige 1-1";0.01 Quality A...,6 Tolal quaIi'l' maBlI.!=onl ('l'QM)

Vllriabnlt)'

DiSCUs.!i,cH Ql1'B5nONs 31
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1-j. . Why Is it di~t tn do5M qoali'l'l 1-10. Dislinguish betw eee quoliry plllOlllng.
1-l.. 'BtWI) ~ tho <ight dime_ ,f quality 8991JXa:JlC!!, .and qutl.l.t)i co:D.tn:ll
~uality. D~ _Ibis impctl'Ve oW' Llodet- age! Unpro-veml;!llt.
Slanctini of quality? l-IL WOa, ~ ttl. Malcolm BaldriS" N.Ii ....
1·3. Sclt.c!Il~ product er seviee, IJld Quoli'l' Awar<ll Who is eJi;o'bl. for ee
disl;:lJ!!, how the eipr dlme:ruiiom of oIlw.fl,ftj1
ql.ltUty iD;tpact jts ovenlJ lIcceptancc by 1-.1.2. Who .... WlllU A. Sbewb.n)
wnsUDJ145. i-rs, What:is mcllCl by lhc cO&t of q'LlaUty'l
1-4. 10 tho:. • dif{ ••• eee b"" ... qualit)l fer 1·14- Ate iatemll fai]1,IR COW mOll:; Of less
• -- ...... JI'Oduct ODd quallly for Un""""",!baa _01 fail!!!: ecm?
I ~ OrYe SOI!Dt:; q:cci6eeJtELmp1es. 1·1s. Whati!iIlsD:-.Dp_llprcccss'l
1-5. CIUl ~ Lmden.tlndili.B of dJ;e mutti.- 1·16- Discu.ss Ibe. SllYenII::nt "QulI.lhy ~ lhe
dimamoaal Dlturt:. of quality lead to _,l!>ility or tho 'IIIeliIy .,."...",
imprQ'Yleld pro,ljuci desi&n or better argaDir;tdom,"
locr\I:ic:c? 1-17. Compare. aM OOllttMl: D~II'S ROO
I~. Wha.t IIl"C the iDtema.! Cllilmnen of a Juran's philoscphy Gf qualiry.
bosi .... ? Why ... !hey Unl"_ Jiom 1-l.8. Wblll: would motivate a business [0
&qLidil)' p::rsp!Sclj:l(jJl oo:mpe,~ for the M Illeol£!] B8lod0l!!C-
1·7. 4Il10 O....mgpl!ilJ>sophy I1IlX> or .... N.Uooa! Quality Award? .
fOl:u.lCd OD statislical methods thu 1-19. MOS1 of tbe qualiiy maoagemt.nt tirrn-
]urtu1 "tute s ... ~:that witlJom lOp manBglfllDCl:lt
1-8. W11It is'the JLlflc TriIoIY? ~hip. quoJ;<y Dnpr"""""" will
1-9. WIw "" tho !b= prim"" "'_II POt QCCU[,. Do ~ 'IJe£ OJ dislpee
IOOIs used for qul!lit)' toD1!Ol end with this slitBrnent'1 Dis;;uss why_
impro~n.t'i!' 1.lD. \Vbat are Ihe. U1tee I:.QlDpCllJeniS O{ ~
ISO 9ll00:2OOll,,.,,danll -

--'

PART

Statistical Methods Useful in

Quality Control and Improvement

Stali.1i<s is a collection of techniqu<s nscfuJ for making dccisious lIbQn' • precess or popul.llon based 011 on >DIIlysi. of <h. infOmlation contailled Itt • WIlJl~ from that populotion. Statistical m,thod< play av ita! role in quality coutrol aad lnIprooian.nt. They provide Ill' principal _ by which. p",dDCt is sampled. ,..,ed, and e.alualJod, ""d the 101"" malion in llloSi: dBta is. wed to eentrol ~d improve tbe 1ll1U1u:fucturlng proet:s.s. Mn1ht:l"m,OEP.:. $tIllistics is f.lu: language in whicb development engineers, manufacturing. procw-emcnt. manageme.IU, and other fllru:.tional componenlG of the bllsines.s .communicm ."'ot quo.Jity_

This port """tain. tIIIO chapters. Chapter 2 gt.es • brief inlfOduction 10 d es <rlpti"" ,tad'li.., showing how oimple graphical and nwomoal "",hniqJ>O' eao b. used 10 summ.nu the infonnat!OIl in .ample dilL The use of probability distributions ID model the bob av i", of prodnct panun= in • process or lot i. theu dlscu • sed. Chapter 3 presents techniques of .statlstital inl'ttr:IIC.e-thBl is, hew tb~ in!onmuion ccetalaed in III .sample can be osc:d to draw conclusions aboUt tht: population from which the sample was drawn.

Modeling Process Quality

CHAPTER OUIUNE

1.1 DESClUBrNO VARlA1l0N 2·1.1 The. S[em·l.l\d~l...t.slPlot. 2·1,2 The HhqRm

l·L,J. N,mmrie&tSilfnmarrofDill;iI 1,1.4 The Bo):: Plot

]·1.5 Ptaba.MIJty Di.tribll(ioN

2·1 IMl'OIITANT DlSCRFIT Ol&TlUSUTIONS 2~1.1 Tha:H~mc:,[lkbiSttiburiOft

2~1.2. The Blnotqial I:Isatbu.tlOn

Z·2..3 "The. PobSOll DimiMiOn

2·1.1 Tho r;;""l and Il.olaEldIlloutb.,iO"

l-J IMPORTANT CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTioNS 2·.1.1 Tbl! NQmIIl.L Dlttribu~lQrI.

I-J.2 Th. ~ D~oit...ion

H~ Th. Exponendll O""ibu.on

2-l.i n.. 0",.,.. D;',rlb..u""

1·.3..5 The W-dbnll Dutn"budMl.

2·i I'IlOIlASILITY I'l.OTS

"i_J Nmmall'1obobll;'" Plo ..

H,l Oth" P ... dHU" floa

l-S SOME \JSEfUl. APPROXlMA1lONS 1·5,1 The l'Iioomioa..lAppto:d~dQn. t~ me

HypctBe(lIll~C:

2·~.l The Po:lncm. Awro:dmAti(l:n to m. BIti.omi.1 2·5.3 Th~ Normal Appl:Q;dmadon to dtc B.!aamt.l 1·,5.4 CommenD" en ApprOXimaLIOQ.!;

Supplem,ntal Motetlal fo. Ct..p<o, 2 SH Ind""",d.n, IWId"", V .. EoIl ..

S2·1 Dn~QflttIaIt of !he PoWQn [)lmiht:~on 52., The Man and V ... """ of tho No_'

ObOlb..ct""

51-4 M~1~ a'baw: the Loe:nGrmRl Dlm1buclon Sl-l Mo ... boo< ... 0 ...... Dt.mlN_ 32.6 The: F.rh.l!!: Rate fOr th. ~tll!il

[l,tI'ibu;riDn

$2,. 7 Th~ FlI.ll.IJ.f'=' Raa fM th~ WcibuU D~ibl,;lti.on

I

j

1

~ ! - ~ ,

CHAPTER OVERvmW AND LEAltNING OBJECTIVES

Thl' texlb<oot is about 1M "SO of ,"liOtioillmothodalogy ... q"olil;' <ootrol and imp"'_ ID<IIt. Tbis chapter b .. two objoetives. rur.l. we show h"'" simp'" 1001. of clescripti"" SOl-tistic& efln be. 1lS~ to exprese varii!ti.o,n quanti.tlltively in a quality c:baractenstir: when a ""'"-pl. of data On thi, charaetcri.w: is .. ailsh le, Oeoeully. the sllrt\pl, i. iu" a SIlb"'l cC data taken from some largt!T population IX process. Th~ s~I:Qllid Clbjec:ti\le 1.5 10 introduce probabWty dlslrlbDtIoDs and ,how how they plO\'ide • [001 Cor moileHng or clesortbillg th, quality clw>ctW.~cs of • pro, ess,

After core!ulstudy ofthi' OO"!,,,,, you shaDid b. ,bl. ro do the following'

1. CocsInlCI ODd Interpret visual d .... display .. including the ''''"Fond·l<a:I plo<.

Ib, bislDgnm, and the box plat

2. Compute and "'''''Pret the SOI!lp'" mean, the sample variance, !be ' .. sianolarrl de-iiation, And U)e .ampI, ""8'

'--'

--'

3. &plaiD Iho concepts of • __ lib'" and • poobohility distribution

4. Unde rs r."d ... d int"l'''' Iho mean, .orlano e, oud "and",,! doviation of a prcb.bili£y di,tributiou

S. Dot..",;n. probabiUti.s from prob.bility diottibutkln.

6. Understand the assumption, lor each of Iho discret. probabillty distribution. presented

7. Unde rs tand the as •• mpticas ree .ach of tho CODtinuou. prob,bility distributions

presentod

8. Select." appropriate proIollbility distrioouou foc use in 'P"cilic: oppUcati"""

9. Use probability plol8

10. U se ,pproxim.tjons for ",me hyperg"""etrio ""d binomiol dislIibn~ons

2.1 DESCRmlNG VARIATION 2-1.1 ne Swn,-and.Leaf Plot

No two uniu of !"lduet pr<xIu<:od by a tIlOJIllfaemriDg process are identical. SOIll<i .m.don .s inevitable. As examples~ the oct coorent of a t:an of ,loft drlnk ,.,ari.e.s slightly ~ can to cen, lind 1M output vojtage of & power .supply i!I not euctly the same from one unit to the out. Statimcs is me sc.~uce of analy:ci.ng diU, and drawing conthlsioru, taking \lari~ aU,oD in the data .infO .a.C:COIUn.

TbIm "'" ,overal graphiC'" methods th'" "" very u"fIll for 5'ltnl1lllrl%inS aod pre-.enting cIa!a. 0 ae of tho most useful graphical «<:hniQll"S ts the stom·and·l .. f <ilipl"1'.

SpPPOF.e tb at .the data ere. represented by Xl,.%:!, . , , ,x" and !h.at each mnnber Xi ~Qn .. sists of at least: two digits. 'To oorucruct .a. stem-lD1.d-leaf plot, ~ divlde each number Xi mttl two pam: a stem, conpsting of one or J:DO«: of the leadin,g digirs; and a leaf. c?nmtiJ:l~ of the remolning dlgils. For OXIImple. ii tho cJsta consi&t of peeeenr d~footi"" ~.ti~ between 0 and 100 on lots of GemicOrwiLJClOt wafers.. then we: C1Ul diVide lbe ViJ:O~ j 6 mtn !be "om , and the loaf 6. 10 gonerol. we should choose relatively few """'" in cOlllP'ri' 50[] with tile number of observ.tion,. H is LlS\UIlly bost m choose between l MId 20 ""'iDS. Once a set of stems h .. been cbosen, they"'" listed doag the left-hand m. of the dl splay. and b es jde each stem all leaves com:sponding to lb. observed data velues "'" listed ~ in the order in which they ~~ eDCOuntcred in the data set

EXA.MPLE;>...l ..•.•.••••..•••••...••.•.••••••••.••••.•.•••.•••••..••••.•••••••.•••.••••

10 ill_III' the ste ... ""d.leof plot. COll.5idor the d.", in Table 2-1. which are <he number of day' to ]X<lce5S and pay employee hoalth in_ elmo. in ,large compa1lJl. To construel the ._.and·leaf plot. we could se 1<" til. values I. 2. 3, 4. anll , .. the "'IllS. H"",:,e.,,,. this wauld , es tlk in all 40 dala wu« belng compocred into ooly Bve stens, Iho ""mmum D1l11lbcr that is usUAlly recommended . .An i!.lt~ti'V~ 'iiIiIOu1d be to split each stan into B. tower and an upper halfl wiib dle IC'2VCS 0-4 being a.ssigncd to Ihe lower portion of the stem ILIld ue lee ves "S-9 beiog .,signed [(] the opper portio •. Figut. 2·1 ls the &tom-md·l,af plol _'lI:d by MWtab. and it uses the ,rcm,splitting ,,,""togy. The 001= to tIl.lcl'I of tho stems gives !. cun:wlativ.e colJl\t of lbt: number of observations that ere aI: lOt below that stan fur the smaller aeme. ODd at or ahcve !hat .,,'" for the lugor sems. For the nWldlo; 01..,. the nomber in parentbeses indicates the number of observations i.neluded in ~at stern,

101 .DElSCIUBINOVoUJAl1Otf 43
Thbl.2·1 Oa~ m Par EmplO'('e1! Health lruil1r'llru;c CkUru;
Cll1rim o.~. Claim 0.", CI-.im D.II~ Claim DII.Y~ Stom....d·Leal DiopIal" Dal"
SUm-at'Id-ll!l:'If of Days:
41 n as 21 37 31 16 N = 40
41 12 " . '22 43 3l 22 leaf Unit .. 1.0
lj 13 36 n 17 .3, 33 3 i. &17
36 t4 42 20 U; 34 so 8 2 22234
37 15 43 ,. oa 35 ,.. 13 2 66778
26 16 36 06 17 36 23 (a) l OO~llB4
36 11 56 17 4> 37 n I!J 3 555666677
46 " 32 l& 33 38 30 10 401n,
, 4 5601a
3S I. 46 29 22 '" 31 1 5
10 41 20 30 30 7:1 40 17 1 5 6
ftu,IInl4 SIilmJ.Illld-ld.p~lICfwdtebealr.h
JMUtIfll3.dai.."TI.1L lnspectilll1 of the plot t<veals that tho distribouQIl of the lIllIIIhot of days 10 pro"" .. d pay on empIo)'ee hea!lh Insurance claim has an 'pp_rely ,ymmetric shep ..... ith • single peak. The .ftm.and-leaf display alJow. US 10 qnictly determine some lmportanl fea"".. of !be dare that "'" not O\>VlO"' fmtn the dale. table. For exemplI:, Fig. ... 1 give, , visu!il imp ress 'on of 'h>pe, spreed or Vllliobillty. and the ocntnl tendency or middl. of the data (which is close to 35).

Tho ""","" of the ,rem·lUJd·leaf plot JlI~ed by Minitab i, sceeumes calIcd an onUred sWn--and·I ea ( plot, boo"" .. the leaves '"" arranged by magnirud e. "l"hiB """iOD of tho display make. it vcry ,asy to !lnd perc ... dles. of Iho d,ta.. arli~ 1'00 kt1l percentile is: III vallll! such Chat at least 100 k% of the: data values are i![ or below r.hi.!i v81ue and .. lout lOa (1 - k)% orlho data .• a1\l~~.!!!!;AQr.~~,~~<M, wine.

The l!I'I!.th pertenlil< of the dota di.trib.~on is called the ..... pl. "",dlon I. The m<dion can be thought of .. Iho dso.- WiUeIliBf exactly divides lbe SJIID!ll< in naif, wilb half of !be observauous .1DIlIIer than tho m<di ... Utd.half of them 10000OC.

If fl. the number of observatlcns, is odd, finding. the. median is etsy. Ant sort the observation' III aacending oed er (0' ,anIt.the 'dllla ti"om'SIIllIl.!"C6( observation to larg<st obs ..... tion). Then the modlon • .,.ru b. \he oh~e.rvatiQ.n in ,ani< pooi,tion [(n -.1)/2 + lJ on this 1is~ ifni, even, the median;' tho ..... S. of the (n/2)<, and ("12 + l)st ranl:zd.ob ser • vatious. Sinc~ in ODr example fl - 40 is an even number, the mecfilll is the average of the two ob ...... tio"' with ron!: 20 lU1d 21. or

33+34

.i;;;;~.33,5

The lenih p....,""W. ;, Iho obeervadcn with rank (Q.IX4O) + O.S - 4.5 (halfway eetweee th.loo>th."d fiilh observatlon), or (22 + 22)fl = 22. Tho !lrst ~u.rlile is the cbservertcn with rao!< (O.2.5X40) ... 0.5 = 10.5 (holfway between the tenth and eleventh observatioo) or C!6 + 27)12 = 2.'1.5. and the thin! quartu. is the ccserveucn with ronk (O.'~)(4O) + O.S = 30.5 Olalfway b.tw.en the thirtioth and thirty.fint obs erv ation). or (37 + 41).39. The·fint and tltild quaotileo oro occasionally denoted by the symbol! QI and Q3, rcspootl,ejy. and the Ip!erqnartiJe, raDgolQR = Q3 - QI i. o""".jonaDy .seel

i ~

L

_--

....

;4

..

55

.~ .... _

,"

"

"

".L. ---:,:-. ---,:.2.,....:.--.,~--!..O TI""

as a measu.t"t: of vari:a.bility, For the insurance claim data the interquanUe range is IQR :;JI; Q3 - Ql- 39 -265 ~ 12,5.

Finally, ollhough the "em-nrul-l.af display i. an ....,Dent way to viswilly .how the variability in data, it dees Dot W<e Ibe tim< order Qf lb. obsetYation. in'" 2lXOOlJt. 11m. I, often , v~ import .. t factor Ibot contributes to VotI.biIIty in queliry improvem,m prob- 1""" We COIl!d, of cocese, ,imply plot the da ta wlu es VIDW lim.; such • graph is _ .B time series plot Of a run chart.

Soppose that the days to process and pay employee heallh. WIICIPC. cllIiIno in Thb!t 2-1 ar~ shown in time seque:ncr::. Figure: 2·2, shows the time series plot oJ the data.. Wr; ... d Mlnitab to 'oDslIU<I this plot (cal!od • TII3l'ginai plot) and requested • do' plot of the dato '0 be cOl\Sl:nlCted in the ~W, """gin. This display cI .... ly indic"",", that time " an impfirtmU =e of VotI.bility in this process. Mar. '!""'iIically, the processing cycle time in the fir .. 20 cllli= Is SlIb,tllnIially longer Iban the cycl.e time in the tas ' 20 claiml. SOmethiDg may J1a,., changed in the 1>'0 eess (0' have been delibaately ehang<d by opera'ing petSOlllld) that is te&pOnSiblo for the cycle time lmprovemeDt Later in thi, boot we formllliy Introduce til, control cIwt OS , graphioal JeChnique for moni'oring process .. such OS thI. Doe, and for pmduoing • statistically based stgnal wh"" • prce ess clwlg. ccccrs.

2·1.2 Th. Histogram

A bi'IDl:ram is a """e coiDpo>ot SUIUlIlO!)' of _ taan a ste<!>-and·~ plot. To construct • !Wtograln far continuous d era, we IlIIl5t divide Ibe ""8e of Ib, data Into inte~ which ere usually ca1lod cl ... Intorvals, ",U., or bins. IT possible, !bO bins 'hould be of equal widlb to enhance Ibe vl>ual infomuilroil in llleliiSmgtlllIl Sora, judgmeDt lIlU!l be useo ill s<lectillJ! Ibe nomber of bins 00 tIIa! • re"oDablc display CID b. developed. The number of 'bins d-c:~ on the nntllber 0,( observations and me amoont of scatter (I( dispersiou in 1M d.am. A histopam !:hiU USes either [OQ few or too filmY bins will not be infurrnativ~_ We "",any tiod that between 5 ODd W bins is •• tisfoctory in mos, 0"," and that the .umbe, of bms s.hoUkl increase with n. Choosing the number of bi;ns approximately equal to the:

SljuU'e root of Ole Dl)mber or observations often worlc:J ~ell it.I ptACl1ce.1

IThcR II nO IIIlIYl:thlIF~rnetlC Iton ~ 10 ntC:Il~!be. {IutDba of lUI for ~ IliSlcBdftb 80m!: _ir; 'tllI!dca taUboala JII~ 11!flolt Smr:..:~'3 "M~. Wbina. !Hl[:J tfll: IIWDbc:113! bim .l. = I -+ 1ag,~L """ere It is _Ifll ~!IIlCJtc l~ '1'tteU ~ !;lilly 'fM'ilnaDI of Srw'Ji!.!I'd roll.. CoIII~1 .IOftwlt& pl.,Cbps uu raIIn)' di.Ift;ruu aJr;vn1iim:li till iletalD.llM Il1c flum.b~ ed wli:ldt of bbJ.&, ;u!g IO:I'IIlI oIlfM:l1I rn...y net be blud co S:DttJt;Ii't 1'IItc.

1 I

One, tile tI1)1I)ber of bin. and the Jcwer and upper boundary of esch bin has been d."tJ!'lpOJl, tbe data ere sorted into the bios and • CODn! is made of the nnmbor at cbser"IUioo~ in f:lk:h bin. Th CClnsrtoCt $.e histogram. US~ the horizontal axJ.s to represent !he JDeJl.SUtemCnt scale. lor the d~ .and the vertical sclle to represent the counts. or frequencies. Sometimes the frequencie. in .ach biD ere divided by the toGII number of obs ...... tiOh' (10), ODd then the >orticar scale 01 the histcgrem '"lltese'lt' re!a1l .. fr<qu<>Ddes, ~ are draw." Over each bin and the height of elOb rectangle is p'''I'otnonol to tr.quency (or rela!! ve ltequency), M"" !tolistics pact", es conatrtict IUstngtalll$.

EXAMPLEl.Z , , ,', , ..

Tobie 2-2 p, .... ts !he tbickn of. meGII Jayer On ..!QQ.!;lic<m waf", ""oiling from a

Cbe~cal vaper ~epogtio.n (CVD) pro9C55 jn a semiconduc~ plant. BeI:aUS~ the "data: set COntlWlll 100 ObkrvatioDS. and ,ffOO ~ 10, we suspect that .bout 10 bin> ..,;ltprOVide • sat. ,morO!J' !>.i.mllRDL We CI,nsrruofGd the bistDgT3II1 u;ing Ille Minirab option that allow. the Ilset to specify the DUmber of bins. The resuldn, Mini, eb !WtDgrom is shown ,n Fig, 2.3. Notice tit" the midpoint of the fiR( bin is 41,SA, andlb., the !W"gram only bas eigh, bin. til" contain • nonzeec frequency A !W"'graIn, Illto • ,,=-and.loaf plur, gives • visual impression of ll'Ie 51l&pe of we ~tn1mtioD of the measurements, Il$ weD as some infora m.edoD about the inherent variability in the data. NOle the reasonably symmetric at bellshaped di!<rlbution of the meGII tbicko es s data. .

, ; . i

........ u ~ .•.•.................................................................... ~ .

Most oompLJter pOCltages ha"" • d.fBnI.t 'olting for the numb ... oibins, Figure 2.4 i, !he Minitob W'",grom obtained willl Ill. defauk selling. which kadR to • histogram with 15 bin .. Histograms can be mlativ<ly seosilive '" the cboice of the number and widlll of tile bins, Fo, smIIli dolO S'IS, hi~togtomS may chang. dtamtlticolly in 8pjleararu:. if tile aombor and/or wid'" of the bin. changes, For this "OS 0,," W' prefer to think: of tile !W. to~ lIS a tr.:chnJqu.e br::st suited. for larger data RU containitlg. 5:ay, 75 to 100 or more observations. Because the number of observations in !be layer thickness is modetatcly large (n z 100), the 'ho1<»o! the number of bin. i, nO! .opeciolly impo&nt, and the hist"grams in Figs. 2-3 and 2-4 convey vel}' similar inf"""atioo.

Notice thot in passing from tile oripol do" or • stem-lInd-leof plo, '" a lWtogrmn, we have in a seese lost some information because the original observations are no' preserved OlL Lb.e dlsplay. However, this lo.as m information is usually small compared with the conciseness and ease of lntorpruatiOD or til, histogram, portit:>llarly .. large S'lIIlple,.

T ..... 2.2 1~1!:! Th,l~~ (A) on ~mtcond'-ll;;l;l;II" WafHos.
." <so 48'1 401 4'2 441 .... '01 '32 471
413 450 430 437 40, .... 471 ,53 431 40B
#I "0 44; .... 411' 431 411 '52 m 445
4'R .,9 450 4$; m ';4 458 ;J! 44, '63
445 '66 .so 434 471 437 459 ;." 454 om
472 470 433 45. 4154 443 44j '15 4J, 431
474 ~:S'jl 45; 44.1 478 463 4$2 ..,. 42l 44Il
4j4 441 .,9 4l.I 44' W ,OJ) ¥.!!8 449 442
= .50 42.l 432 459 444 44, .,. 449 441
44j 44; .,5 441 464 4'1 437 434 411 '39 -

_.

---

~~'.''U'lieJdWi:liS M~I.r("*'tlllil5$

fflU~ 2 • .] MfDilab hiUQgrtm lOr ifill llI~r;aI I~ B,bfl 1-4 Mmitab hiltD!f1lll wltJ. 1$ bin 1'o~ the

tWcb!~ die. ill 1'Ibf~ 2-'1, mellll.~ rhil:1a!Il5!i dIu..

j

""octO

:E'tallln:!-oS A 1:-ImIJ,Lll.tive frtqll~ plat of ~ m4Il Hp~ l-' RlltoPD!Dr the mJmbcr (I, 'lkfl!ru itI

~j$ data frcm Millitlb, pW:!~ t'DIIImObiJc.baodB (Teblc.l.-3).

HiStograms ore a1w.J'" e .. i"'l0 int~t iflb. bins are of equal width. If IIJe bins"", of """"aI width. il Is """lOmory '0 clnrw rectangles whose _IS (Ill opposW 10 h,ighis) are proponionalw UJI:< number of obticrvatiOJ.'lS in th~ bins.

Figure 2-5 shows. "",aUon of the hlsKli'''''' .wJJobl< in MIni"'" Q.e., Ibe cumulative frequency pial). In Ibis plot, !he h,igbl of each bor rqnset)t& !he _r of obsOIVllllollS th&t arc I ess thaD or equal 10 "'" upper limil of tho om. Cumulative n.,queoci .. are otten very usoful in <lata !n~oon. Fo< example. we een ""d dir,etly from Fig. 2-5 th .. ,boot 75 of the 100 wa""" have. melllliayer thickn<ss th" is I ess Ill .. 46(} A_

Froquel1O)' disttiboti.OIlS and histograms ean al,Q be used with QullliOldvo. caregorieal, or =1 (disc,",,) data, In some opplli:olioos. th ere will be ... tnral oro.rlng of!be caregorles (SIl!:h as freshmen, 5op1tomore. junior, IOd senior), where •• in ctbees !he crder of the ""'goo es will he arbi..ary (such .. mol, ",d female). Wbo. u,ing cotogorical dot a, th~ bars should be drawn to have: equal wjdth..

To COn.slluCt I histogram for di&erete or coum dare, fiI:st deretnline the frequency (or relativ, frequency) for each ""Iue of .". EJw:h of !he ~ values corresponds 10 • bin. The bistogr4l;n is drawn by pJoding the fr~uenci~s (or re.lElti'Y~ frequencies) on tile verti~a1 scale and the values of x on !he holizontalscal •. 1'heI! above """h value of", draw , '<C1angle who ee hoighl j. th. frequency (or <OIative frequency) "",,",poDding 10 thBt value.

l!XAMPLE 2-3 .

Table 2·3 prl!5ent, the nm:nber of sudace finisb d,focts in !he primer paint found by visual inspec1iOll of .. tomobile hoods that were pointed by • new <xperimernal poindtig process.

r I

1 l 1

i ·1

~

6 1


3 , ;
3' .' .. ·z :> s 7
5 • J J 12 Figna: 2·6 is the bi,"''''''' of !he defect'l. Notice thot the number of defects is • dtscrere van.b1 e. F""" either !be 1Ij''''grom or the tobula!ed data we can d_.

Proportion, of hoods with at teesr 3 defects = ~ ~ 0 7S

50 .

Proportions of hoods with berweee 0 and 2 dekc ts = ..!! B 0.12 50

Thos, proponioo. are e<amples of ",loti ... n.,quencies.

• .. ···~;.·~ .. •••••••• n ~ ..............• u h •••

2·1.3 Numerical Swt""""ry of Data

The su:rn-and·1eaf pier and tile IIjlltogram provid' • vi,uaI display of lbiee Propertj", of sample data; tho sbape of the distribntloo of the d.Ol. tile central rendeacy in the dota .• and the scatter or variabllity in I.he data. It is Iho MIpfuJ 1'0 use numr:rical measures o,f central tendency and SCaltOr.

Suppose marx"::,, '" ,xn ere the observations in a sample. The mosl impon.ant mea-

sore of central eendeecy in the sample is !be ~., ea ~ .

(2-1)

Note lhal the: sampl~ av,e[9g~ r is simply the .arirhmetic mean of the n observations. Tbc sillilple av.'ago for the =r.aIrhici<De.!, data in Thblo 2.2 i.

"., IXt

%.L!L...g 4S.001 ~4jOOIA

100 100 .

lid" to FIg. 2-3 and DOle that the sample average: is the point .. wllj,h the hlstogram ::uy '1Ja.laru::es." Thus, the: sample ilVetage repa:salts the censer of milS.~ of th~ sample

t('r-')' i'~lol-"-I

{2·2l

Note !hat the ",,,pIe ""';an~ is~ly til. sum of tile sq"~ d<viati~ of ~b o~&crvatic," from the SlIDlple .vcrog<jj divided by tho Simple 'IZO mmU' on'. If thor< os no variability in the sample, theu each 5BIIlple observation :Ii ~ i I and the samp1e variance ; _0. Gen",.ny. the larger is the ,ampl, MlII\e, i'. the gre8",i, the variabilizy in til. """plod.1i-

The onits of the sample variance " are til. sq"""" of the origlnol uni", of tbe dam. 'J"lW is ofle:o. i.neonven.ienI and awkward 10 interpret" and SO we. usull11y prdcr to use the SQUn toot of j2t called the sample .standard de.viation $, IS a measure of variability.

1,foUDW. lila!

(2·3)

no primary advantq< of the '''''pl. standard deviation Is tblt it is OlI.proslCd in the original units of mea.!lUl'ement. For me mt:tal thiek:ness clam. we find that

" _lSO.292SA'

•• a43A.

To assis.t in undeestaruling how the standard deviation descn""hes variability. consldee the ","0 SlIIllplts ,hown here,

Samplel SlUllpl~l
~I ,.1 z! ",,1
",~J "'~!
",~5 x,=9
'-3 %-5 l'

OtrYioulily. sample 21w gtea"" variability than sample I. Thi, Is te!lectod in tile standard deviatiOll, which for .ampl. I Is

(1-3)' + (3- 3)' +(5 - 3)' • .f4 ~ 2 2

and for sample 2 is

Thus, the larger variabilUy in ..."ple 2 i. _ted by its Iatger ston<lard devistion. Now .consider Illhird sample, sa)'

S.mpieJ ,);1_101 ., ~·I03

~

1 ... 103

The standard deviation for this thi!d ..".plo is , • 2, which is identiool 10 tho """dart! deviation of somple l. Comparing the two """PI es, we .eetll .. both saropl es have ldenti· ,oJ variabilizy or sea"'" about the aveng', and ,this is why they have the wru: "",darn <Iovl,tion" 'l1ii.! leeds 10 on impo_1 point nu, ,t.t>d.ni <leviation do .. Dot _I the I!l;IIgIlilude of 111. sample data, ool1 the seert er a bout the ._ e.

Ihrul-beld coll:ularors are fieqllCn~y used tor coloulaling the sample avodg< and standar!! deviation, Note til .. equancns 2·2 and 2-3 are not very omolent =p"llItionlllly. becaus~ evr:.cy nuOlber DlIlst be entered into .:h~ ca1.cu1aror twice, A more dticlenl fonnula IS

(2-4)

J:n usinS equation 2-4, esch numbes wolll<l only have to be entered once, provided tIlHI I.:'.xr and L!"I;Z:~ conld be simultaJJ.eowly aaomulated in the, cak:ulato(, Many inexpensive hmd-neld -cBklllators pcrftmn this function .and hal'e aummlHlc caleulttiotl Ill:i and t.

--'

__ 1_

~'

Tabla 1·4 Ho~ Ojamm~:u (in mm,) Ul

W1n,l",,",", lido. P';bo

120'~ 12M J:l0.7

12M 120.1 121.1

110,3 120.1 12M

121--' 11O,l 120,B

2.1.4 The Box Plot

'I'ho s __ -leaf display ""d ,h. nlstngram provide a vi.U>j impression .bo"' • dam set, whereas the sample average and standard deviation provide quantitative information &bow: specifio ioatur" of tbe. da",- The box plot is , !!l'Iphicat display that .imoll'illOOll-!!Y dillplay. ,,,,,oral impon"'" feature. of tho dola. SlICb .sIoclllion or c."lfallendency, spread or v""abililY. deparillt. from symmo"l'. and ldeulific,ti"" of cbservaeoes lllat lie .uosually far from tho 'oulk of the dot. (there obs erv ,Iion, arc oI!", c:.&Il..J "outlic"'~,

A box plot display. tho .m.e 'l"ottiIes. the minimum, and the maximum of the doO\ on a rect.ulgtlillf box, aligned ei~t horiz.ontally or vetticilly. The box encloses jhe int..-qllJlrtil, ran&" wilb the loli (or low,",) lin. at !he first quartile Q! and lb. right (or opper) lioe .. the Eblrd qoottile Q3. A line 1, drawn through tho box '" the ,.,ond quartile (whioh ,s tho Iifti,lb percenrne or the m,dian) Q2 -.t. A Jlae at oither end 0%"'"& Eo the ememe values. Th.ese lines are usually called whiskers. Some wlhor5 refee to she box. p10l .. tbe box and whillker ploL In some compute, pcogroms. the whislte<s omy extend • distanc. of LS (Q3 - QJ) from the ends of the box, at most. and observatlcns beyond meselimi .. are flagged a, potemial outli ers, ThI' vanillion of tho b..u: p<DCodmo is called I modified box pI<IL

EXAMPLE 2--4 , , , .••.

The data in Table 2--4 on di=" rID mm) of holos in • group of 12 winS Ie,ding edge ribs for a ccmmerelal transport airpl.a:ne. Note that lbe median of the sample is balfway between the sixth IDd se-eem rank-ordered observation. or (120.5 + ! 20,7)12 • 120,6. and

• that tho gullrtil •• are QI = 1.2035 and Q3 ~ 120.9, The box plot i. ,how" in FiS. 2-7. 'Ibis box plc< indic .... ' thor the- bole diJim"" di,tribution is not "'-"'ily symmetric around • central value, because tbe left and r.igtlt whisko," and the !aft and right boxe. ouoond the median are not the same lengths..

Box plo .. on very .seful in stOphiool comp";sons amon; dot. sou, because Elley have: visual impact and aR easy to wuier.stand. FOt example. Fig. 2-B shows !he comparati ve box plots for. monofacruriog qoalil)' ind .. 00 products at three ",umfactminl plan ts. Inspection of this display ,eveals that tII.IOU too much variability at plant 2 and iii" plems 2 and 3 need to raise their quality index pen'orm=e.

12.0
110 ~
1100 ~
~
; ,
A OIl ('
'\;~
80 1
-:
tc ,,""

Pl:w'fl 1-3 CDqI;raQWI bOJ: JIIoc:I 01. a q~ill(f indel' fmp--cd\I= 1j:ftI~i!d IllIhmI plm15.

1.1.5 Probability o;'tribudo,,"

!be hisrogram (or ."",,·and·leaf pIo~ or box plo!) is used to describe ",,"pl. dlllll, A sample is a col!eetioD of Ineasu.rem.enIS selected from some hUler sourtr: IJl' populetfen, For exemple. tha m=l1ltJllents 00 layer thlclm ... in TIIble 2-2 ore obtBiDed fIotn • """. pie of warm "leered from the mllll1lfactu<ing pro= The population in this exOlllple is the colleocEioo of all layer tlt!clm es see produced by that precess. By Dsing ,tatistical mejhcds. we may be able to iRBlyu the slUl'IpJe layer E:hlciness data ud draw c:ertain eenetusicas abour ~ process thllf mllnumctllres the wafl:l:S.

A prnbabUlIY distribullo-o i •• mathom.ticol model that rW!os tho value of the vari· able with tho probabililY of OCCIlIJence of that value in tho popolaUOOl. In mllcr word$, we might vi",alizo layer thicknes, as • raadem variable, beeecse it tWs On Iliff.mlt values in the pOpUlation accotdins m some I1IJJdom mechanism, and then the probability dis1ribation of layer tbicblc:ss describes the probability of occurrence of IIILY 'YBlue of layer thlclmes, in the popullllion, There ore lWO types of prnbRhility di"ribUlio"'.

~

1. Continuous distributlous. Wben me variable being meliun::d. is: e.xpressed on B. . couttnuous scale" its' probability distnmnion is called a continuoJls distrtbutum: .~ ptDbabl'lity dis:tribution of metal hiy.e.~ lhi.c:k:ne'-S is: cendnucus.

2. Discrete dlslribudon s. Whot! the parameter boing measured c"" only take on certain valu es , sueh as the inEqO" O. I. 2., , , • !he prob,hillty dlsmbotion is called .disc,.,. dinrlblaio ... Fotexmnplo, th, di.tti'ouIion ofth.ll\IlIll)orofoonoonfonnities. or defects in prtDt:ed circuit boards would be: a di!iCl"Cle disTn"bution.

~--------------

-

/hI

/\

-~=

:,'

j .:

0"

..

'"

I.'

Examples of discl<'!e ind coeueoous probability dl'In'bution.s "" sh .... n In Figs. 2-90 .me. 2·9h~ resp~vcly. The appearance of a dwelt: distribLltion is that of " series. of veeneal "spikes." ",im !he heiih' of each spike proportloeal to tho probability. W. write Ill. pt<>bability 1ll0l th, ran<lom variable X ,u.s on Ill, sp,eim YsIno ~ as

p{x~x,l = p(r,)

The appearance: of II CC1D,tinUDl.l.S diatrlbution is mlu Clf a smooth curve, with me area UDder tho curve "'Iua! ro probability ... thOl the pnlbability that x lies in 111. int<rva) fro", a to b is wnnen as

••.... EXAMPLE 2.5 ..

A DiSCff.t!. Dlstr1.bulioD

. A maDof.oturlng proc'" prodoces thOll ... d. of somiconductor chips P'" tlay. On !he average, lC,1b of lhe.sc chips do not conform to specifications. Ev~ hourt·an inspector seleots. a random 'Slmlple of 2.5 chips. and c:la,ssme.s each chip in the: sample IS confmmin& or nouccnformlng, If we !ell: be the n:m::lom var:lable :tt.pre;sen'IiDg the m.unDa- of noeconforming chip, 10 tho ....,.,1 e, Illon 111, ptOhability distribution of x is

x = 0.1.2. ...• 25

'IIIherr: (~) = is ![xl{15 - ;t)!]. This is a diSCrtle dislributioo, since !.he observed number of ncnconfcrmencea is:x == O. 1.21• ..25, and is called the binomial distribution. We. ""Y c,l.ulat' the probability of finding one or few", nonoonforming parts In !he sample ..

P(~ ~I); PC. - 0)+ P(.; I) ; p(O)+p(l)

; ±(25)O.OI)'(O .. 99)"'"

.1".:1100 x .

~~(O.99)"'(0.0l). + 25! (0.99)14(0.01)'

012:51 1!24!

~ 0.71'18+0.19154: 0.9142

EXAMPLE l·6 " "

A CoolIDuo .. DislrlbuUo.

Suppose that x is a random variable thaI represents lhe actnal contents in ounces of a t-Jb b.~ of eo!fee beans .. The probability <!i,m'bo"on of.< I.s .. SUtoed '0 be

This j, • '0111'""0"' cIlstnDlllioo. since the raoge of ;r is th, intervel (15.5. 17.0]. This <!isui""';"" "' caJlt>d the uniform dislrlbullon. III\d It is sb .... " JTIopbicoliy in 1'18· 2- 10. N .. e that tho _" unde, the function.ll;t) corresponds '0 p.obobility, ,0 111&, tho probabil· ity of> bog containing Ie .. !ban 16.0 ClZ is

pix s 16.0} ~ j".o/(x'J·; r"~id>:: ~I'·-" ; ~ ~ 0.3333

11J r- LSo..31.5. l . .5~:5,j 1.5

This follow. Inmitively fro", inspection of Fii. 2-9.

In Sections 2·2 and 2..) W~ prc:.senl several Wiefu! di5:Ct'f!e. .am! continuo-us distribudong, .. ~ mean ~ or a probability distribution is .a measUfe' of the central te:Dd~y ia the

disu:ibutiCln, or irs locatlDD. The me"" is defined as .

,. ~ {J.:.;if(.,) .t.:,x continacus I x;p( x, ~ x discrete

!=l

(2-5bJ

For the OIlS. of • disc£ete 'lIIl~om veri,ble wilb exactly N "",ally liI<ely value. [that is, p(x~ ~ 11M, then equadcn 2-.5b reduces to

No" tho o:imiIatity of rlti.'l last expression to the: sample ,~e.x defined ill cqu.lian 2-1. The lD<an i. the point at whicb the: dismoofioo WIOIIy "balances" (see Fig. 2-11). Thus, the m,an i. simply the center of mas, of tho p!:Cbohility distriblllioo. ND" fraOl Fig. 2-11 b that the mean is not n..,..SlIIi1y the fi..."ti<th pereentije of the dislributlon (tb<) medl.n), '"~ fran Fig. 2-110 it is nm aec ess arlIy !br: mO" IlIreIy value of the Valiabl, (wruoh is oalled tho mode). The IIl<IIIl slmply ~.=- tho loeaIlOD of tho distribotion, .. 'hownln Fig. 2-12.

Tho: scener, 'P",ad, '" """ability in • di,trjhotioo is expressed by the .arianco d'-.

The definition of lb. varian ee is

(2-60) (2-6h)

when th€ random vaDllble ,is di_scrl:t:t wittJ N equnl1y likely va!UI:S, Ihen equation 2·fib becomes:

and' we observe thaI in lhi.s case !he valiance ja Iht: .average: sqnared dlsta.nc~ of each mem~ 1><, of tho popolatloD from the IIl<ID. NO!. the 'Inlllarity to the sample vadeace I, dolined In equation 2-2. If d'- = 0, Illere is no votiability in !he population. As the Valiability increases, the vanence rr tecreases. The. vanlU\Ce is ~~~ in lbl: squam 01 the umts

I

I

/f\ J1\

ModI! fo,Iedll

'"

laJ

F1CUI'I! 1-11 'Th~mI5I.tI Clr I. dI(lriblJliOifl.

fl.'" HI ,11",,20

FI.I'lI.'I'e l·ll 1Wu probbiliJ.y di-urlblnieas with diffm:lltlmall.i.

s s m

P'lpn 2·ll 1'wtI pJOW'biIiIJ diS'll'ibmiclnlii willi dill: wm.~ tllil dlffcteac ICandi!lrd dflVlt,tMi.

of m.· odgina! ..nabl,. For example, if we are IIl«I>wiIIg V010lgeS, tho unil> of the vari· ance i!l'e (volcs.r. Thus. it is CUstomary to work with the square root of me variance, elllt4 the staDdard dtvIatton a: It fellows that

(2-7)

1

'J i I )

The sl2rldard deviation is a Dl,elSlm: of sp;read or scatter io the, population expressed in Ibe ~rlsinaJ units. TWo disttil:Nti01l$. with the same mean bUl: different standard devladons are shown ill Fig. 2-13.

1-2 lMPORTANT DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS

Sevoral were" pro1><billty distribution. arise froqueutly in statistical quality 000",,1. In this secuon. We discu:ss the hype:rgemm:trlr: drstribedon, the blnomial distnbution. the Poisson dl.sttiOOtion, and the. Pascal or J1~gali'\l'e binnmial distn·butkm.

'·Z.1 The Hype1lleometrlo DIstribution

Suppose that there is a finite popuJarl.on consisting of N ilmlS.. Some number-say. D(D ,. N)-of these items W1 inrc • e .... of interOS:l. A random sample of " items is selected froro tho population wtthow roplacom.nt, and the number of it...,. in the sample that fall into tM e!us of .int.=ce.'!l-.sill.jI~ ~h.: observed, Thea x is a hypergeam.ctric rimCiom ,otiabl. with the probability distribution defi~d as foUow s,

-

5& CHA1'1U 1 !riODet.OO:l PlOcBSS QUALlTY .

~

The byper~",otrl. probability distribution is

(D N-D)

() x n-.

p.< B ~) •• 0.1. 2 •...• 1llin( .. D)

(2.-8)

The mean IIIld venanee of the distribution are

(1' _~(i_!2.XN-n) N~ N N-l

(,HO)

In the above definition, !:be quantity

(") al

b ~ b!(a·b)1

is the. num.bcr of combinatiDtl.! of a items. taken b 11.1 I cme.

The bYl''''1l'o"",,;c distribution is the "I'P<opriate Frob,bili,y model fot soloctinR • random sample of n irems without tq>lacemcnt from II. rot of N items. of which D are n.ollla confooniog or defective. lly a ,..,dom """pi,. we me.., I _pie ma, 1m. be"" .e1ectc<l in such. Wlly Iblt all p<><;sibl. samp~s ~ an "IuaI cheaee of being chosen. In tho se appUr;ltioos, x mrually repte.SellU the nlJmber of nonconforming ilem$ found in the Silmpie. For "'omple, "'ppo.e tha, a 10' oonoUn& 100 items, 5 of whioh do no' conform '0 requh:emon". If 10 hems·"", se ~'"'<I .. random ,.jlb""l "Pla='n~ then the p<ObabU· it)' of Ii.odin, One or fewer nonconforming items in the .ampl. is

In Chap"l 14 we show ""'" probability "",dol. suoh es thi, can b. used 10 design """optanc e-s ampling pro,,,,,,ur<S.

-

-

-

BW

\

2.2.2 The Bio<>lIIial,Dlatribution .

Consider" process thlt·oonsi.<s of • Kquence of " indcp ... d,m trials. By indepeodenl tri;als. we. m~1LIllillrflhe entccree of eEW:1l tdal. ooes nOl depend in IDly way on the Qtl.tCoJne. . of previous trials. When the: outcozoe of"each trial .is. either a "success" or a 14fa.jlUI~t the trial> ere called lIemot1lli trials. If tho probabillty of "success"· OD any ttW-,ay. pis constant. then tho O\Url""" of "succcsse," x in rt B emoolli trial, 'has !he binomial distribution \\lim iJarameter:s n and p. deftned as follow5.

D_ei'bUtiDD

The bl-uomial d.istributiOD with plUJl'I.ctcn 11 :!_Q and Q <p <.1 i!I

. p(Z)=(:}'(I~pt; x=O,I ..... "

"The mean end ~Mce ofth~ binomialdistrllxrti.oD ere

~ll)

(H2)

o-'';np{l- p)

The bil1l>mial d\striOUWD is "sod rnqu.",lly in quality .",~g. 11 i,lll. appropri· !II< proba!ii!ity mod.1 for sampi.lng fro., an InIi.oilelY,I"'i' population, where p rep«""" the f,.,1loc of def",Uv. or ",",comonning Iterns in Ill. population. Jn fhe;s. applications, ;;t uSLlIilly :teprescnts the number af nonconfonnins items fouod in a randwn sample of " ito .... Fo! example if P = 0.10 rod " = IS, then the prob'bilit)' of obUining x eonconforming items lSI computed from equation 2~ 11 Il$

0."'lS9 0,'432 0.2081 O.l:IlIS 0.0418 O,OI~ 0.1)(119 0.0003 0.0000

-

,

fill 81111C1nUi dll..nl:lUtlgn=; 1M c:l11'f1lr~nt .... I~ (1f~ "lI.fI .... l~.

0.'.- --,

0-" 0.2

·n.",\O,!I'=0,2!!o .".20.,. .. o,a Ill:Zol!lO,p.o.2S

.~) 8it1will di~trll;art;DI\! tilt ctftBt .. 1 ~H arl!.\IIIt'h,=G.'2:5..

S .. eral binomlal distri'hlti."'" ore shown gnphically in Fig. 2-14. The sbape ofthos. e xa mples ;., typical of all binomial dimibuti"" •• For a fixed ". <he diotDbotio. beeemes ~ ~Irlc as p incr ... ", Ftom 0 to O.S or deereeaes frem 1 to 0.5. For • fixed p; the disEribmion becomes; more !I)'nu::nclric as rt increases,

A random verieble <hat arises froquently in , .. risti.cal quality cooJrol is'

(2.14)

where x has • binoaUal di$lD"buti"" with patmJ<lOr. " and p. Often f> is tbe ntio 0( the eeserved num1= of defective or """conforming j,.",. in • sample {l:} to the san'lple siz, (n) .nd this Is: "-,,,ally ealled the """pie rradlon defecti .. or ~ple fraction oonconforming. "the .. - ... ,sy:mbolis used to ind.icate thllt. p is an estimate of the."II'1lt, unkaewa valut or the binomial porame .... p. The probal>ility dlsuibution of f> i, obuinotl from the biDDIlli<l. since

{X } [ .. I ("}r( r:

P{PSo}=P -Sa =p{xSno}-!: I-p

11 ~;;;;(J J:

where [nG] denotes the lugest mt-eger less than or tlj,uIJ to 1ID. It is easy to show mal tb~ mean of p is p and !:bar !:be variance of p is

2·2.3

The P cisaon Distribution

A useful discrete distribution in statistical quality control 1.5 the Pois:son dismbuli<m, dellouti a. follow e.

-

1

I

i !

I

~

.,

~ i 1

i

1

1

L

The Poisson ~botioR is

(2-15)

wh~ the. peramerer ;t ;::. O. TIle mean and variance: of the PoiSSOn disrnbution are

(2-16)

and

(2-11)

Note that !he mean ""d varianre of !he Poisson <Iimiliu<iOO1 are bolh oqoal " the pOIamelu l.

A typlcol "pptienn .. of the Poi..", dislribaliO!1 in quolity control is ... modo! of the number of defects or nonconfcxrtnhies thar occur in So unit of product In fact. any random phenomenon that OCCtl.rS 00 Ii pet unit (or per unit areB, per uoil volum~ per unit time. eti:.) basis i< aft .. _II 'PJ'I'1>i-ed by the Po;,,,,,, dislribuliQ1], As an """'pi' .. sLJPP09< that the number of wire-bonding d¢fed:!; pe:r unit that occur in a serniconduclOf device is Poisson dlsm1mlOd with p""""'" J. ~ 4. Thea the "",bebility lI>aI • randomly seleelOd 5emicoDdu~!Or device will c:ontaiJ! two or fewer wire-bcm.d.ing defects is

Several Po",,,,' dislributi_ are show. in fiB. 2·15. No te thar the distn"ballon iI ,lcewed.- that is. it bas • 1001 tail Ie !he righl. A. the peremerer J. l>ec<lm", la:rg"'. the Poisson distrlbmion becomes syrrunenic j:o appearance.

It';5 possible (Q derive t.M. Pois:scn db:tr.:ibutian as a liinidng form c( the binomial cbstributioo. That lsi in a binOinW distribution with parameter.s II. and PI if we let n approacll infinity and P approach zero in Sdi:h a way that ;lip ~ A is a COILatant. then die. Poisson distribu,tion re;sulu. It Is &150 possible to derive. the POiS$OR distribation using 9. pure prob~bi'n[)' argdme.nt For mere informaD.on about the Pais:s:Ob r;UstnllUtioD, 5e1: Hines, MOdl8omet)'. Goldsmllll, and Botrnr (2004). MOQtgomery And Ronacr (2003), and lb. supplemental te.l.t malUilll.·

. Z·2.4 The Pasco! and Related Dlolributlom

The PASCal di.lribudon, like the bioomial di<trihotiOll, bas i" basi, in Bcroooili trial s. Co",ider • sequeece of iDdepeodent Irlals, eooh MIb probnbitity of succ es , P. and let x

-

-

'~-----~---, ... ~.---~ ..... ~------~----~----~~------~---- .... -- ........ ~~:::::::::::::: •

0,',---;-;;----- ,

.1. .. 4 0".-8 ,1= i:2 .A."Ui

'"

denoce the trial on which the: rth success OCClJl'5. Then A is a PISCal randotll variable with probability distribution defined .. fonaw s.

The P .. c:al distribution is

~~)_.(X-l)~.(l- p)'-~ z _ r., + l.r+-2, .. :

,:-lr ,

where r 2: !. i:i an integer. The mean ~d Yllna1ld! of the Pasc.al di.stn"'bu~n ere

, (2-19)
ttw--
p
a.nd
. r{',p) 0-20)
a1!!!
p' (2·21)

l-! ~COHTIHUClUS.DD·ntIlUmOK!i 61

of ~oulli llials) and ome.v. !he number of successes; in th. !lOgan ve binomial <!i'IIi~.rlori. we ~, lh~ mlmber of soccesses end- observe she SlmLplt: size (mmlw of f3etno'UDi tnals) required to ",ilI.v. !hem. This """cept is particularly ""P'''''''' in vlUioos tinds of sompllng probIc:m':

The olher spacial case of the. Pascal distribution is if r ~ 1, in which case. we have the geemetrie disn-lbudon.. It is the di:rtriDU'lion of the number of ~emDulli trials until the first .sUCCC5S.

2-3 IMPORTANT CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS

In ~ secttoa w~ dis~$ several continuoWl distributions '!hat Ire important in statistical qualllJ' coottol, 11le se toolude th. nom>al distribution, tbe 10gna<m.J distribution, Ill. exponential di.lribullon. Iho gomrna distributioo, and tho WeiboU dislributiOOl.

Z-3_1 The Nonnal Distribution

Th •. normal dI.tr;~ti"" io prob,bly m. mos. ""porIlIn! <I.i,lIibution in both Ill. thecry ond "pplica""" of SIa~'&" U x is • nonnal random ....noblo. then lh. prcb,h)lit}' dislribulion

of" i. dofined .. follows, .

'The normal dletrlbnnon is

Tho mean of lite nonnal diatribution" /J. (- <: /J. <:~) and Iho villian ee iI Ii' > o.

I ~

1Wo special ....... of Ill. Po5Cal tli$1rlbu.tion are of inlere,", Tho firs' of these occurs i

wben r > 0 and is not neceswily an integer_ The resulting distribution is caned the li,

neaatlv. binomial distribution. It is relatively ,,,,,dud to ref ... 10 equation 2-18 .. lb.

nepti ve binomieJ distribution. even when :r is an m[cl1l!::t Tbe neptive binornW. disrriillJa

lion. lllce the Poisson distri.lM:ltion. is sOtn~rimes uscfut as the underlying statistical nwdel ~

for VaDCUS type5 of "C':OUIlln data. such as lbe occurrence of noRconfornntic5 in a unit of ~

product (see Soonon 6-3.1) 1""", is lin important dualit}' beween the binomial and neg; 'I au ve b",omioJ di,nib.tio".. In the bioomlal diJtnbotion. ""e fl. the ,""'pie stto (U1lII1ber __L__

Tho nerr n 01 distribution !.r wed $0 much thll we frequenlly employ' special nO!Ition, x - N(p.. a'l. to imply thot ~ is normally disttibu'e.j wI!ll mean lUnd 'arian," d'. The Yioual oppe."noe of !he normal distribution is • symmetric, unimodal. or boll.',,"ped curve and 15 ShOWD in FlI- 2~16_

1b~ is 8 simple intupreta6o.n of tbe- .standard d.e'i'iation 0- of a nonna.! distriblltioo, which is ;lItutrored ill Fig. 2-17. Noto thot 58.26% of tile P"P"lntiOll ,a1ues full betw ... tht: limit< defined by the moon pI .. ",d ml",,. 0.' .""dlO'<l deviation (P;j; I",; 95.46% of Ille val ... fall b_ tbe limits defined by lhlo mea.n pw and minus two otandotd devinno", I.J; ± 2",; ond 9~.Tl% of tho pupnlation ..Ju es full within Iho limit! dofuled by !he mean plns Oll<l min .. thr ee standard deviadcas (p ± 3Oj. Thns"th. standard do.,.;aIion measom' tho disllUlce on the buruonllll ",ale ass ccteted with the 6B-261f>. 95.4li1f>. aod 99.73% oontainmen, "m"s. It i. 00""",," practice 10 WIlD<! tbos, pete .... go. to 6i1f>. 9'5% •• nd 1>9.7\1;,

-

._-'

Th~ cuntlllad"ve. normal distribution 1$ defined il& the probabil!1J that the nonna) random variMle :c is l~ than or equal to same valDe Q, or

-i(!=I!)'

p{~Sa}~F(a)z r.. ---b-. • dx (2-22)

cr,.r2n:

Thi. int.gral caanot b. ovalu,ted in closed rom. However, by using the cl!ange of variable

x-u ,.'--"' o

die evalUlition can be moo. ind'pendent of Ii aM rr. Th" is,

p{~ sol:p{,s a:JI} .. <t( "~JI)

. where 4>(') is Ill. cumulativ. m,rnoo."" fuootion of lb e s !andard ""nnol distribution (mellll- 0, "mOan! d..;mon" 1). A ",b1. ofth. C1lIIIIl1ltive: "","an! =al distribntion is given ill Apt><ndix Thbl. IT. The tronsfonnarion (;,.-23) is usually called .t""dordizaUon, boelU" it converts, M./J., rr) =dom "wble into." MO, 1) random vorlable,

EXAMPLE 2.7 , , , ..

The ,",,,,ile strength of pope< used m make grocery boIlS is l1li impOrtant quality ch .. • ne!C1istic. It is known thrn the str~gtb-say, x--is nonna.lly diSUlOUted wilh mean JI.40 Iblin' and standard deviation cr~21bf'm'.d.no<edx-N(40. i'). The purehaser of the be!!! requires Illcm to have. SItO>l2th of at leut 35 IMn', Tho proIlabillt)' that. bag produced fm.m tbi< pap"- will meet ea exceed thi. specification 1. PIx?; 351. Namlb,t

To evo1uat. this probabili!}' from the _dar<! n=nol rables, we " .. danll2. the pain, 35 and fuld

P{.'; 3S} ~ f'{'" 35; 40} _ f'{. S -2-.'): ¢!{-2.5). 0.0062 ConSbju.n~y, tbo cJemd pr<lbobjJi,y is

P{x:>:lS} -1- f'{. $35} ~ 1-0.0062; 0.9\132

FiiUtl' 2·12 ,how. the tabulated probnbilit)' fer both the N(4O, 22) di'tribution end the standard normal dimil;o.otion. Nole that tho shad,d ore, to the 10ft of 35Ibf",' in Fig, 2·18 "Presents the fraction nonoonfonning at "fillloaf' produced by Ill. bai monufecruring precess.

Apt><ndix Thble II gives oo>ly probabilities to the let! of positive valo"" of ~ W. will need to utilize the symmeny property of the normal distriblOOd toC evahm(.f: probabilities. SpeciJically. note that

P{x~a}-I-P{~sal P{,s-a}sf'{l:Sa}

(2-24)

It is belpM in problem .alulion to drnw • graph of the distribution .... in Fig. 2·18.

I

I

,I

1 i 1 ~

.J

! I

I

I

-2.50 0

J'lrau l·l. Ciikut.li.oo of I'(r s 1'J i.Q~:t&mpIe 2-.1.

EXAMPLE Z,S .

'Ih di_ of. ~otaI ,baft "sod in a dUk-drive unit is llOn'lWly d!s";bu<ed with mean O.1S08 in. 0ll<I ,1Ol)dl!fd devlation 0.0005 in. Tho specificati<ms 00 "'.;lJfu't bay. b_ .,!BbIisbed as 0.2500 ± 0,0015 in. W. wish to de",,"",. wbat fraction of the ,bafts jl(Cducod <onlbrm to s;><owcati_ The "!'Propria'" nOllllal distribution is ,how" in Flg. 2·19. NOI,1hat

P(0.241l5 ~ x s O.2515} = i'{ x ,.; Q,25IS} - P{ ~ s 0.248S}

= "'( 0,2515 - 0.ZS08) _ w(o.U!S - O.25(8)

O.OOOS. MOOS

~ "'{UO) - cI>{ -4.60)

~ 0.9192 - 0.0000

'=0.9192

Th us, we would eapect the precess yield .0 be "I'prWmotely 91.92%; that Is. abou, 91.92% of Ill. sbafto produced conform tc speewoa"''''

Note full: almost. all of tne nonconforming shafts are too l.a:rge~ because the process mean is located very near to the upper !p~c:ation limit. SUpp05c, we c-an receeter the manuflu:ludng prce ess, perblps by adjusting 1he machine, so Ihot !ho process ""'.., h ",actly "lUAI to !h. nominal value of 0.2500. noo we bav.

P{ 0,2485 s x ~ 0.2515} = P{ x ,.; 0.251S} - P{x S 0.24 is}

_ ,..(0.2515-0.2500)_ w(Q,2485 - 0,2500)

I. 0.0005 0.0005

= 1b(3.00)- Q:I(-l.OO) =0.99865-0.00135

·O.9!173

By ~!erin8 the prOCMS we. have.incrc:ucd the yield of the proce.!ilil to ilpprCJ.ximllely 99.73'lb,

,_, ~eciliallD" limit usu

"~j2cifI~jC'Jl'l

limit IU!iU

FJ.pn loW llinributKlIII g£ IUfi diilll41lt'$, ........ " a,

.~.

EXAMfU2,9 .

SOlI)otimes instead of nrunng tae probability associated with • particular volue of. nor· mal random vad.ble. '"'0 fin<l tr ne=wy to do lho opp<>sile-find a particular value of • ""roW nndom ..nablo tIlat results i. a !Iiv<ll probability, PO< e:wnplo, suppruo thAI x - HI I O. 9). We wish to lind rile value of x-say, <>--10101 that Pix> a I ~ 0.05. Thu.

. { 0 -10}

P[~ >.)~ P p-]- ~ O.OS

{a-10}

P %s-)- ~O.9S

From Appendix Tabl. n. we h,v. PI z S 1,605) = 0.95. ec !.:.!£ = 1.64~

3

or

a= 10+ 3{1.645) = 14,935

........................................................................................................

The normol dlstn"bltion has many useful properti'", 0". of Ill ese ;.. relative '" lin..".

C<lmblnodo ns ofnor;n&!Jy and independently di.!tribulOd r:BllOOm ,on.bles.1f '1' x, ... x. are n"""ally and independently distribu",d 'random Vllriables with means JL,. />1. ' • )J,. and variance! o-j , ot. .. cr'~ re;pecti...ty, !hen th. dislriblltion of

I I ~ j

!

I

I 1

is Doanal with mean

(2-27)

(l-lS)

The =".1 Limit Theorem

The normal dlslribllU"" ;. often ... umed IS tho appropri.", probolnlity model for a ran • dam ,orl,ble. Later on. we will discuss haw to.cbeck the validity of this essumpdon; however, tho eemralJhnit 1heorom Is often • jlisti1ic.uoo of .pproxlm ... n=nality.

--

_'--

Definition: The Central Llhill Theorem

It ."tL• ~ • , '. x,. lire independent random variables with mean J.l.r ID.d vmian-ce. aJ, and if y g II + X, + ... + "", then obe distnllutiOll of

approaoh .. Ill. N(O, I) di>tn"ouri,," " " 'ppro.iche.s infinity.

The oenltollimit the.orem impU .. tb .. llle snm of n iIldepeod.,tIy di.,,,"outed nndotll vwbJes is approximately normal. regardless of lh~ disuihurion~ of the. individual: vari'I,ble!L The approximation impwves. as n tnceeeees. III many eases me. approximation will be. good for .smalll1-say, 11 c 10-\'Yhereas in 5Omet:ases we may reqWre vr;,ry large ItsaYI " > l~or the approXimation to be SlI.tisfactary. In ~, if the. Xi iIIM jdentica:lly di5tribl!od, and Ill. distribution of each x, do ... ",It dt:pBrt radically from the nonnal, then the: eenttallimit theorem works quite well for 11 ~ .3 or 4. These coaditioos are met freqwmtiy in qualil)'-enginoering probl.",..

2,~.2 The Lognormal Diltributlon

VariableS' in a SjlS[eIO so.m:tim~ follow an exponential :rclationship, say x = ex:p(w). H~, e1i:ponent is a random \laria.b1e. say w. x. exp(w) is a randcPl variable Mel me distribution of x is of tnreeesr. An llnporumt special case occurs when w h15 a:normal dlstrlbutJon .. In thai ease, the dismlllllion of.x is clllled B lognormal cllstrfbntfon. The IlJUllc: foHows from lbe tran.foonalion ln (x) ~ " Thll i>, the ratill:ol logarithm of x ls normally dj"tiboteol.

Probnbilities for x are obtained from the. ~orrna_tiQn. lO ..... but we. need to reeorme thor the range of x is (0. -). Suppose th.t w is oo<maUy dism'buteol with mean G end variance tff~ then the cumulative distllwriQ.n fLl.&;1ion for .'t is

F(a)~ P[x"a]= p{exp(wj"a]=p{",';m(a»)

= l' s m(~-8]=11n(~-8]

for % > O. ",here z i •• ,tando:d normal random variablo. Therefore, ApP<:D<ii.< Thh!e IT can be used to dctemllne the proh&bility. Also.j{x) ~ O. for x" O. The lognorma] random variable is IlIWBY.s nonnegative.

The lognormal distnlnlrilJtl is defined IS foUowl_

~

L~ w ba v e. iii; nomaal distn"butiai:J mean f1and variance ol~ then x= ex.p(w) is a. IOCD.rmaI random .arlable, ond the logru>nnal di.tlibution i.

f(A)=~ .l{_(m{~~~ef] O<H~ (2-29)

The mean and varia.nce of x ere

II- = e'HtM".1/J, and 0"2 = _,21!i1+1il1 (j;"!ofIIJ -1) (2~:30)

!

I

!

1

,

1

Tb. p.".m_. of • logoonnol distrib<lliOdl me 9 ond fiJ', but cue 10 needed 10 intolpret !hat tbe5e are. t.te me.s.n and vartenee of the. oorma.I random "mable w.. The mean and vm· aooeaf x ore the fullctiom oflll ese parmn er ers sbowe in oqUlldon (2·30). FiB= 2·20 Illustrates lo&"ormal dlotn'butiOtl. for selected vol ees of tho parameters.

Th.lifetime of. p'oduOl that degrades over lime is ofton modeled by • lognormal random .lIlisblo. For ex ample. this is • common dislribotian for the lifetime of • stmiroodu<lOr laser.. Otb:r CMrinUOUS' distributiOI1! can ilia he used iII tbi! type of application. How'''"''. bececse the logncenal distrioo~on is derl ... d from • ';"'1'1 e ex ponenl!al function of a nr:xmal .... dom vari.b~ it u eany to understand and easy ", "al"m p,oI>.b!ti~".

--~.O,2S

--"",t

--~ .. 2_'2S

111UH 'Wl) l..D~1:'ITLiII s:m:m,IHlu)' dallosn, riIIo.etk1l"J.'!i w3dJ 8 .. 0 rar ielc:C2d. wlocs of d.

-

EXAMI'l.E Z_IO , , , ••

The lifetime of , meilical laser use~ in ophtlWmlc surgel)" h" .• lognormal dUttibulioo ' witb B .. 6 ",d Ol m 1.2 1100 ... Wh,! is the probability the lifetime exceeds ~oo hours?

Froro the cumujedve d!strioulioo function for the1oJ:llOI"lol random vari.ole

P(~" 500) = 1- p(exp(w) S .loo] ~ 1- p(w S 1.(500)]

Wh.t lifetime is exceeded oy 99 % of wen? Now tho queslioo is LO detemline a such "'.t ~"o) = 0.99. Theretoro.

p(~" a) ~ p[exp(w)" a]; p(w" In(.)] ~) _,,1 1"(0)- 6) ~ 0.99

\. 1.2

From Appondi>< T.ble II, I - «.) = 0.99 whee a ~ -2.33. Thorofare.

In(a)-6 = -2.33 and • _ elp(U04) ;24.63 hours

1.2

I" = ."~'" = ""1'(6+0.72) - 828.82 hours

,,1 .. ,"'~' (,~' -1)= exp(12+1.44Xexp(I.44)-I]= 2.212,419.85

'0 the st ... ~ard deviation of the Iife""e is 148? .42l!ours. Notiee Ilmt the " .. dord d .. Iation of the lifedrnti .S large relati..,~ to the mean.

O~r-----------------------'

--.t .. o.2IIp._Sl __ A iiIl.l(p:,.10)

~-.t.. o.ou?tll- ll5~

'Lc

o

D,Hi

-0.1:2. ~ 0,"

¥1",t'I: :!·21 !xpalll.;tirlal di.Jlribl1tiaN foe :;c:h:l:lcd. ~ of 1.. F1aurt! 'l-2l Ttz l:uJIMIlaciYC ~fI$I!iJ!l diI!Ilt.ib:l~[lI\ rul:lttiao.

~'>'.

2.).3 The Expon",,"al Distribution

. .

'ThO. pJ<>l>abiliIy disttihution of the "p"",ntial random vllli..,l. is defined as foUow,.

Definition

The 6p<lnflnfial distribution is

zl<O

where J.." 0 is • co ns !a!lL 'The mean and,·varlance of !he exp=tial distribu-

tion are '" . . -- .

1'=1. ' ...

(1.32)

and

a- ,1 ,0 -:~

Several OlIpontntial distribution. "'" shown In Piil. 2-21.

Tho eumulatiw exponential disttibl.uion is

F(o) = P{x~.) = I;l<-"'d,

=I-e-'" .,,0

Pigue. 2-22 Dlll5trates the e-~pooentiu cumulative d1ltnWtlco funcucn.

, The exponential di,tribunon is widely used in tho fi.1~ of rcIIaIlII!ty englneering " a model of the: lime to failure of:a cQmponen~ or system. In the.s:e applieaticru. the patlmA eter ,t is called Ibe !!fuylu'Bte of lb. "l'''=, M,d Ihe mean of· the dislrihotion III is called the mean rime. tc failure.. 2 For elample, SllppOSe that an elecuoeie ccmpcaem if.! an airborne tEdor 'Y"'''''' has • osoful life de.scn'b.d by an expcn •• tin! dislribution wllb fallure rate lO"Ih; that i .... = lO"'. Tho mean lime 10 WbJre for this component is 11 .. = Ill' m 10.000 h. If we weared LO de_ne lb. prohabili'y tho! th;, component would fail before its ex peered lifo, we would evaluate

~.,s±}= J%ll< .... dt= 1-.-' = 0.[1212

This rerut holds regardloss of the VIII •• of ,l,; _ i., the p1'ob..,ility tbJi' • value of I!tI exjXllleetial...oooro varilIble will be less <han it. meea i. 0.63212. This happens, of 0..,,,,,,. because the di.9triblltion is not .ymmetric.

~~----~~======~-- .. ----------------~--~.--~--~~-

There is an important rclalicnshlp betweell the exponential and Poisson dislribUtions_ If we co:nsider Ihe Poisson distribution as a mCldel of the number gf ceeurreeces of seme ",ent in tho in!erVal (0, 11. then from equation 2-15 we ba ..

~

p(;r;)~ ,I

Now.t ~ 0 implies tbat thOle "'e no ceecnenc .. of the event In (0. rl, and P(x - 01 ~ p(O) = .-"'. W. may think of p(O) .. !he probability !hat "'elnterval 10 tho 5 .. , occurrence is greater than. 1. or

where y Is <he rondom _ble denOlinllbo inte",al to Ibe !lrsl occurrence. Slnce F(I)~ P{ySI}= 1-.-"

and using th' fact !hatfty) = dFfy)/dy. we have

as the di"';bnlion "fib. Interval to the lim cccurrence. We recognize equation 2-35 as an expon en "" dlstribu£ion wilb porametor .1. Thorefure, we ... tha, if the ~ of 0",",reeces of .an eve ... t has a Poisson distrJblldon with parAmeter .\. then the di.stribution of Ihe m<e<val bnwun occurrences is Cl<ponontlaJ with p_<r .t

2.3.4 The Gamma Distribution

The probability distrilroQQIl "f !be g"""'"' rsedem variabla is defined IS foDow,.

The gamma dlstrlbnilcn;s f(x)~2_(k)'-le-'" fer)

With >IIap. p.", ... eter r> 0 and,caIe parameter l> O. The mean and ... rIIIonce of the g:arnma distnDution are

" (2-37)
I'~-
l
and
, r (2-38)
"~l' 'i(.rl jill Uti: !k:ncrtdr!D* of -I:IfDBtlOIl 2.36 d;: ~ pmme tt.~, ddiJ1t;d II nr} - Ii,!:H .t-J d:£, ,.:> 00. 11 r 1. ;L pmr .... e.iltl~.thenT'Vlt::(r-l)1

EXAMPLE 2.11 , - _ .

Con<ider tho sy'_ shown in Fig. 2--24. This u callerl • standby redundant $)'8'''''' becacse while. eampoaenl I is on, compgncnt 2 ~ off, and when ClIIIIpOne:ol 1 fail.!;, me. swi,ch au.omllical!y turn. component 2 CD. If each c"mllC"'~n' b ... life dosoribed by on o:<ponentilll tlistributi<>n with J. ~ IO-4/1t, say, then tho S)'<Wn life is _ dl.tril:o.1led with p_er. r ~ 2 and J. ~ 10-<. Thus, til. mean £lme to fBiJ u "d, p ~ riJ.. ~ 2110-< ~ 2~)o'b.

--~"1,.l. .. 1

-_1,,2 . .1 .. 1

--,·3 .. 4.1

In

,

Flpu:!:-21 (ja.m.w.diRrilrudonJrCT!III~'4l'uear,.OIld Ftru:rel-o;!.ol Tbe..uMdbyl'tl!ulliit:!ll~)'~lI!!mfor

1"" J_ E;~:llmph: :l.U.

Soveral c= di,ttibu,;cns oro .hown in Fig. 2·23. Nocc thst if r~ I,the Somma dlstriIn1!ioo reduces to the exponennal dlstrlbutlon with p....",eIo, J.(Soction 2-3.3). Tho gmmna <full1lrurl"" CIIn .... me many diffe""t "'.pes. depending on the values cbQS<JJ far r ond .l This makes it .. sefullU: a model for a wide varIety of t:on:tlnuOUl random variables_

If the p~tet r is ran inleFt'. then the gamma dismOution is the scm of r indeR penGe.tiy lind identically <funUeled exponentilll distril>udoos. ,ad! with parameter "That is, if ~I' .x:z •• _', x,.;m. expceennal with panmettr..t and independenr. then.

i. di"';bn",d .. _ witll P'"'''''''''' r lind .t TIl."", ate • number of imp<J<tonl .ppllcations: of tbi.s result,

The. c,UJDIllalive. ,gamma diJtrlbuticn is F(O)~l-r.-b<I) A.r),--l,-"dl • r r

(2-3~)

If r is- an integer. then equation 2~39 becomes

~I .~

P(a)~l- .-!- •• -M t!

Con<equently, the enmnlntive gamma di.triboti", can be ecaluared ILl the sem 0.1 r Poi .. on tenns with parameter Aa.. This result is ntll too surprising, if we consid.er the Poisson dis-tribution as • model of the number of oceurnnoes of an event in • fu<od inte.-"al, and the gamma di.tObu£ion AS <he model of the portion of <he in te rval required to obtain • Spocilic nrnnb~ of occurrences.

'L

--,------~========~-- .. ----------------~~

2·3.S Tho Welbull DlBlributioo

Tho WelbuU dIonibutton I>

x?:O

(2-41)

where 9'> 0 IB me scete p.''''l''d''r; ond ~ '> 0 ts tho '''''p'' parametet, Tho m ea n ono "ran'" of the W,lboll dislrib.tion n

(242)

(7,-4;)

The Wel1>IlI distrihlltion is '.1)' !lc>ibl e, "'" by epprcpdare ,.lee."., of th< p"""'_ 8 .00 fj. Ill. diatribeticn can .,,"me a wide v eriery of shapes. Soverol WeibUll distribo1lonO ",o,h.o_ln Fig. 2-~ "" e-l.n~ ~ ~ 11'2. I, Z. on~ 4, NolO- that wben ~ ~ 1, tho WeillI'll distribution reduces eo the oxpollOntiol di,tribution "'illl m_lI9. Th.o,""ulalivo- Welbull distribution is

(2-44)

The Wei'ooll disn1b1don bns been used extenrively in ~lbbility engineeri'ng a~ u model of time to failurf: for elecrricel end meehenicet components and ~ya~_ EXMnples' of suua, tiona in which lh~ Wellnlll has been u.seCI i~lude el~ devi.c:.C5 such as nlCmOI)I eletI'l~1S, tnbChilfiic:a! components ,such is bearings. and structural elements in efrcraft and :a.utomcbil~.lI

==::i:!:~

_-_I~"l.Ii':a) -.-~.4,e_l

Fi~v.l!i ~itR.II~~~~flll"~~dw.ll.tll:!lrflllt1~~I'IlIp4~pulll ~a.pariIIIIC'I~8 .. 1,

EXAMPLE ;\·12 .

The nme to fai.htte for iiI.1J ~.earonio component tl!i~ tn a flP.lt plfmC!l tlsplay unit _is sarisf,""torlly modeled by • WeIlmll d;,ui'OOtioo wi'" fj ~ L en ~ e ~ ~. Tho. mean ","0 !D

failure I> '

~~er{I+~)~5~++~J

~ 5DDOf(3) - 10,000 hours

The frecden of components ~pectod to survive CI • 20,[X}Q hours is

l-F(Ol-e<P[ -(in

60.m3

Tner Is, all ber ,bout 13.53% of the sujes .. mhli •• VliU fail by 20.000 bonn .

••• h • +0 •• ~ +0 ~ 0+ •• ~ •••• ; •••••••••• ~ •••••••• ~ •••••• ~ +0 ••• ~. + •• r" U +P + •••••• r •••••• ~. ~. 0+ 0+ 0+ •• ~ •••••• ~.

2·4 PROBAlln.ITY PLOTS 2.4.1 Normal Probobility Plots

How 00 we know ",hothe, > partieular pwbabllity dlstrilrotioo is • "'''onable model fur ,",t.1 Probobillty planing " • gr.1'1ticaI melbod for derermining wbelb., >lmpl. d.t. canfonn 1D • hypo1hes!2.d dj.gmootion based QIJ • subj«lf.e visual """'; ... ';00 of 1Ile dota. Th. general procedure is very simplo .. d CAn be pedon:w:d quicl<.l~. Probability plot. tin2 typically usee special graph plj>Ot. known ... pre beb illty pap ... , that has been designed for the hypotllesized di.!nibndon. PtobaDillty plj>Ot !. widely available far !be nrsmal, l_o""aI. W<ihcll. ond various cbi"qu"", on d gomm. di,tribnti.",.. In !hi. secdon We iI1ustnle the normal preb.bllJly plol. Secdon 2-4.2 di,""" es probability plo~ far SOJne ether continuoos disl1'iOOti.(DiS.

Th eomtruct a probabilJl}' plot, 1Ile ob."".t!ons ;" lb. sample ere tin1 '","",0 from sm..aD.e.n to larg~t. That is, the .sampl~·'l:lt~., - -.OX.n is am.ng~d as .r(1}'.l:pp .. ".two where x(l) is the. smaUest ohserv-otion. x['3) is the .secoc.d .5l'n~{ o'Oservation, and so form. with .too the largc.ll. The ordetcd c bse rvations 'm arelben plomo against th,;. ob_ eamu!alive frequency U - 0.5)10 [M 100 (j - 0.5)1"1 on tho appropriate probability pap"', If the hypotbesiw:l distrilmdon odequaWy dOlerib" the data, the plotted points wUJ falI.pprtIXim.te!y along • suaight line; if the plotted points deviate signlficonUy and Iiy"ematically from. a .stIaiaht line, the. hyPCtbe.siu:d model is not liIpp,tupDitte. UsuBlly. the detmninatian of whe!hor or not !he dam plot as a ,traight lin. is subjective. lb. procedure is illlW!'1llod in Ibe follDWing e:<aIDple.

EXAMPLE l·ll - ..

Obs..".dons on the road octane number of ten g...,line blends or. as foDows: g8.~. 87,0. 90,0. S8.2, 87.2. S7.4. 87,8, 89.7. 86.0 ... d 89.6. W. hypotheJl2e Ill.t octane number is od"l"""iy modeled by • nmnal di.mootion. To use probllbilil)' plo<ting to invutigBle !his hypothesis. firsr manit: the observations in asce.nding order and calculate their cumulative froqn.""ie, U - O.S)l1O as .how. in lb. occolllpony;ng table,

%c" (/-G.5)flO
IU O,IlS
17,0 C).,s
87.2 OX;
11.' 0.3,
n:g 0.4l
811.2 e.ss
8&,9 Mol
19,6 0,15
19.1 O,ll
90.0 0.95 10

~,.2 1!I1'!i.2 137.2 B!I..2 a,g,2 tD..2 91.2 ""

i1iWl! 146 N~llUll ~1Ibl1lt)' paT (If !be. J(I;i(lact.int tlLnbcr d»a.

The pain of values '<ul and (j - 05)110 ere now ploltod on noo:tll! probability paper. 'This plot is shown in Fig, 2-26, Mo" nonnal probability POP"' p!oo; looU - D.S)!n on Ib.ldt vor,;c" scm (>nd ,ame 0)'0 plot )00[1- U - 0.5)h11 00 the n2h' .,mcal scale). wilb the verieble value plotted en the boritAJ",a1 scale, A .trl!i2h1 line, chosen SI1bjoc!ively os • "be91fi,"line.lw been drs .. n llirough Ibe plotted points. In drawing 1Ile ,lraigblline, you should b. influenced mere by the po!;. ... near th, middle of the plot th ... by th' """me points. A good rule of thumb i. to draw the line 'pp"'xim.lOly betw",n the 25th and 15th perconW. points, This Is how the line in Fig. 2-26 WIiS determined, In """slng the 'Y'"""IDe devi.tion of the pol.", from the suaignt line, irn.gine a r.t j>CnCillying along the line. If all the pain'" are covered by thls irnnglrlary pencil, a tI<O<1)lal distribntion od eq ua~!y descr:ibes the date, Bee"",. lb. paints in Fog, 2-26 would P"'" u.. fat poncil test, we conclude that the normal disttibtltlon IS an epproprillirc model tor the 1'O:IIId octane number data,

A narmaJ probability ~Iol can also be co.""""".d on orOinary ""ph papa by plotting the .tandardUed nama! scares 'J ~gainst·W where the standonlizod .<lrmal scores "tis!;,

For example. if Ij- 05)1n ~o.05. ~lJ) ~ 0.00 implies tho! 't ~-I.64, To Uhlstrlto. consider the dota !rem !he previous 0XlIIlP1o. In tho fuUowill8 table we <haw the .taodonlized ncr.ma.! scores in lhe lasl column.

''''' xIQ (j-O,<)JlO 5:
1..154 86.0 0.05 -1,64
11.0 o.is -t,04
"" 17.1 O,~ -0,6'/
11,4 0.35 -{13~
".B 0,45 -OJl
-0,'7 88,2 055 0.13
1 au o.6S 0.19
"'1,6' 1 1l9.' 0.73 ~,O1
9 89,7 0.85 l.fl4
""'.30 10 !>C,O 0.95 I."
85.' SU B7.:2 ee. , 89.2 .... 91,2
·u, I

I I

\

1 'j

f

1

"

Figure 2·27 ",,,,,.to !he plat of't ...... "'w' Tni, nonn" probollility plot;" equi_alent '" the one in Pig. 2-26. W. can allOlln on .. timJI!. of the mean and stlDdorO o..i.Iloo ~tly from a n onnal probability p;"e The meon i s ea timated as the 50!h percentile, From Fig. 2·25. we would estimete the me .. road wane number es 88.2. Th. standard devlaIloo is proportional to Ille slope of the ,1l'lIiglu line 00 the plot, and one standard deviation is the diffueoce eerween the 84th .nd 30th percentiles, In Fig. 2-26, !he 84th P"",,"tiJe i. .bout 90, and lb e es timn .. of the mndord devi •. don j, ~O - 88,2. L8.

-

I

" very impo,,",,' 'pplloa_ ofllOnNl probilllility pkl''''g ;., in .• oriIIcati tm of .. sumptio,," w.e. "'ina statistical inf.ren", procedcres !h., require !he u«maIity ASSumption. This will be iUustmted subl5equently.

2 ..... 2 Other Probablliry Plots

Probo.bWty plots are extremely ",$1 and"", oM! !be lin. ICCkmiqllO used when "'e need 10 determine which probability w..trihUtion is ~ly 10 provide • reese •• ble model for <btl!.. In wing p""'.bili,y plo ... "",.uy tho distribotion t. e •• .en by .ubjectiYe .... ssr .. nt

ru.l>M All,imi~liLlm Commn~don (:ppm)
,0 30. 60 03 11) 19 .7
90 101 10' 115 ,,8 119 119
IZO 12.S 140 IOj rn 182
III m "I"l2 244 l'll 5lI FrcC1"'The Lo.!~ Oi.irt.ibuDon ror Mcdall.ail> QIUJ.it)' '[)ata Meo II'I~ Mcll.!ll IS tiBm:~,- ..tI;IrIIrmQ~.ttf"lIIII:ltl)~i!cIn.19SID.,PSI.ll15-llC,

/
• .
I " " '0

J~

" /
..
90
jft
20
."
e
100 IODD
AAlminurn ':lIIti1rn1milt.hm {:IIaml
to, 10

)00 :mJ !SOO 400 !OIl Numillollm eorrtnl •• t'kln {ppm,

.. ,

J .: .. /
. ..
. OJ
go
"! ..
j :~ l
eo
, ~
, #'
a !ll
• ."
I. 100 1000 " 1(0 200 300 40D 500 600
Atuftll.DlJm~taminatli1n[1IPi'Il Ah .. ntllut!lC~f.lMimIFflll'ol
,~ "'J Flp:o:i lola. PwbabILl~ p5oc! ~r ilia ~ oCollWlilllltli:;1I1 iJN. &II 'Tabl~ 1--5. {Q) NomaL (!;o) ~l!i:K1JJn (cfWdbull.(4El:poIlenti..!.

of the prob'Dility plot More fonna! ".tistioallloodn ..... f-fi. WI!. <an also be wed in oOl!i";,otian with probability plo!ting.

To ilJllStraIe bow probability plotting can be us.ful in delmnining 1M 'PI'I<JIlllate dis~"luion for damt comidet dle datil 011 alummum contmrin",Jion (ppm) ln plastic shown in Tabl, 2-;. F;gutt ~·,S presents several probability plots of thI, dOlO, coc .. meted D,"ng Mini .. b. Figure 2·28. is •• orrool p,ob,bility plot. Notio. how the dora in the taili of the plot bend .way from the straIgh' lin.; thi.B is. an ,ndjcation that the normal di,,,,'butian Is !lO' • good modo! for the dota. figure 2-28b is • logoorrool probability plot of 1M d&ta. The do.a r.n much oloser 10 Ibe straight line in thi. plot, pwcularly !he observ.tion. in !he rails. suggesting Iba, !be lognormal distributioo is more lil<ely '0 provide a reasonable !Ill]<lj,[ for tho dora than i. !he normal distribotiou.

F!nnDy. Fig. l-U. and 2-28<; are W';buU ano exponential probability plo .. lot the dati. 1bc observations in these plots are not very close to me. stn.ight Rae, ;51J8g~ling that .e1th,r tho WeibDU nor III •• _ntisl is a very good !DOdd foe the d&ta. Thcrefo~ based On !be four probability plots that we have coll&ll"ll<Wl, !he 1000000000al distribution appears to be the most approprinte choic~ IS 111 IDOrlel for the. aluminum rontami.n.ation data.

M SOME USEFUL APPROXIMATIONS

In cerWn quality control problems, it is sometfmes 11Se.fu1 to llpprtlx3nJate one probability dlmIhUtion with ,.o!h er, This is ponicularly holpful in ,ltualions whoa the original diltn"Wtian b difljoolt ttl monipulate anaIydo.uy. In thi::i , ec boo. we present ihree such .pprClllirnation,: (I) tho binatnial nppro.unntion 10 the hl'Jl<'l!eomettic. (2) llIe Poisson upproxitnArlon 10 the binomial, Ind (3) tho """"alapproxinuli",\ '0 ~ hincmial.

2.5.1 The Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric

Consider Ill. hypergecmetdc ilistribubon in oQu.tioo 2·8. If III. ",tic nIN (often called !be ,ampllng fractitmJ is sm.u-say, nIN S O.l-tboD the binomial di.lrih.tklll willi plIllm'" , tcrs P =: DIN and n is a geed approxInmrlan to the hypergeometnc. The appmx.imorlotl is bettor for smell .alu es of nIN.

Thli _oximatioo i. useful in the ddlgo of acceptance-sampling plans. RecaU that Ih.e b,),pergeometric: dimibution is the approprlare modcl for the number of ncrw::onforming ile"" cbtain,,; in 0 random ...",ple of " i= from • lot of finjto sI<e N. Thu s, if the sample size 11 is small relative to the lot sfze Nt the binomial approximation may be employed, which usually simplili., the calculations con.<idOf\lbly.

A& an example, suppose lhAt a production 101 of 200 unilS crmtaim: 5 units. that do eor meet the 'PcciIic,tions. The proboilility tha, • rlndom sample 01 \0 uni .. will ",,",oin no nonconforming items is, !Totn ~i1ati.on 2~a..

~ 0.7717

·1

p(a)~

Note thl!ll emce nIN c:l.lCY200-= 0.05 is ruativeJy srmdl, we cemd use the binomial approx. iIIlatioD with P ;:;; DIN;:;; moo .. 0.025 and n :IIi" 10 to calculate .

P(O) ~(~)O.G2S)O(M75)" ~ O.n63

2-5.2 The PO'Sion Appro:rimation 10 the Binomial

Jl was nnted in Section 2·2.3 mot tho Poisson di,tribution eould be obtaioed as • limiting form of the binomial di'tribu~on for tho case weee p approaches eero O!ld 0 approaches Infinity with l- op 000,1"" .. This itnplie! tba~ ror ..,.n p I!lld lar,. n, the Poisson disInDuti.n witll J. ~ np may be ¥ III approxim.Ie the binomlal dt.tribution. Tho appro";. ",.tioAls u •• alIy good for I",ge" ond iJp <0.). The larger is the valce ofn IIIld the ,mall", is !he value of p~ me bener ~ the approrimatian.

Z·S.3 The NOrQ)a1 Appro:rimatioQ to the Binomial

In Soctlon 2·2.2 we delloed the binomial distribution as Ibe sum of • sequence of " Bemoolli !rials. eecb wim pn>b.bllity of success p- H!he number of !rials n i. large, then we may use the _ Iimi! the,,_ III Juslify the ",anal rli,triburlon wi'" mean "P and vllliance "pel - p) as an .ppn>ximation to me binomJ:al. That 1 ..

P[:<~ oJ ~(:}'(l- p)"-'

I _l[(._,.l'I,P{!-.J!

- J2""p(1- p)' '

Since the binomial distribution is discrete and &be nonnal distribution is co n tinucus, it is coounon practice 10- 'USe C(HWnuUy !:orrl!cdo-ns in the approximatio:n. .sO that

{ 1 } ~ 1 )

a+--.np a---np

P[x~.J~ -

~nptl-P) . ~npn- p)

whm <II denoteS tho " .. dard ncrmal eumulati .... distribution function. Otbct type. of probability' statemenlli are evaluated .sUnilarly, sucb as

The 1lO!1nIll approximation to th< binomial is mown tv be .. .rn..:IllIJI tor p of opproximorely '/land n > lo.l'ot Q1her values of p.largorvaluos of" ere requiredIn general. th. approxitnation is nat adequate for p < ]I(n + 1) or p > nI{ .... I), or for values of the random vllliabl. ou<>ide '" intorval six madard <leviatioos wide cemered about the me .. . (co" the inlerVlll np± 3-.K.p(l - p))

We may also use the normal lpproximati.on for the rBDdom vllriable p ~ xln-that is, tho ""'p1c m".tion defective of Section 2·2.2. Tho random vari,ble p i. ,ppn>xim.tely normally distribu1«l wlth mean p and varian.,. p(l - p)ln. so thOI

P{"Spsv}"J~)_J~) "'t.yP(J-p)I" "'t.,Jp\l-p)!"

Since the normal will serve u an approximl!lilln lei the binomial, and since- the binllmial ..,d Polsson distributions are d",o1y ecnnected, it seems logical that the normol may serve to appIoxima~ me Poisson. This is indeed me case, and if the mean A of the Pcduon dis~ tribution exceeds 15 (or $O), then tile normal di.rribuQOO with I' ~.1.and,r ~ A:is, ""'. faotory opproxim.tion.

I 1

i

1

2 .. ~.4 Comment! on ApprQxHnaUons

A sutnmaI)' of !he approximations diseuued above is p!e.5l:nt:ed in Fig. 2-2-9. In this figure, H, B. 1. and N represent the byporgeometdo, billOmioJ.. Poiascn, and normal di<lI!bu· dens, respectively. The widespread availability of ",odorn miorocompUl<rS. good ".ti.!ic:s software pacl:ages, and .and-held caleuJato", b .. made rolianee on these approximlltion£ l"'lIely unnecessary, but the .. au situation> in wbich !hey arc us eM. partic\llarly to the applic.atioo of the popular tl\tU-$llI"" limit control cllins.

80 CH.A.PTEJt, 1 MODEl..INO ~ QUAUl'Y •

"""""" MaJV.Iol~U1U.

~hUl5i~1:

""",,"" .so]ImoM 10 lIle

oD6:I'llIolm~ ~i!Z:l incJudt.dltlli:M Atltwl!t!DD ,d",," EuiclieilCQion tatM~gr ItIlsb:lok.

IMPOR'"£ANT TERMS AND CONCEPTS

ApprOXirDlllloos to. pobabilic:y c1:iJ1ributi(]n5 Binomial disO'lolitiQo

_ploo

CoIltinuOO5 cijsa1bntian CoOb:cllimit theorem Descr:ipriw.. _utel Di!icrett; rlisuiburion Expanel:ltilll dJ:!bibLl.tloo. Gamma distriboticn Geometric di51ribntioL'1 !(j>rognm

Hyp~trU:: di$oibuti.on lnte<qumlJe [IO!e l.ogDQmIal rliS'aibution MI:IDClfndistr:ilmtiOl'l Modiin

Ncgld.ve bbwmilll distribution NIJrnlI1 dl~I:t'1'butiDo.

Normal Pl"bebillty plO!

P ..... dl",iblilioo

EXERCISES

1-1. 'The ((]ck:nt of liquid dl!!W'genl bouJ~5 15 bcina .... yzal. TweJ"" bow... ran· domly seIce"" from du> pnx<SS. are :rtIeiIIultcd. aDd U.C IC9ulu. :ue il5 fonOW's (I' Iluid Dun""): \6Jl5. u;,m. 16.02. 1~.04, lji.M, 16.01, 16.02, 1'.02. j.6{l3 • 1!.0l. '6.00. ,o.m

(a) Cakulate me .sample ave."'II,Je,

(b) CIlJ:;WB.te ti:lc. aempla ~TmdBr.d citv,-

Ilion. .

2·2. The bcre diiWW:ers of ~gbt [lIDdomJy selcctr;d bearixlp .are .sbowD. here (ill 'lUll); 50.001. 50.002. 49.998 • .\0.005. 50.00.1. 49.996. ~D.M. 50.004

(Ii) CaknLiitt we sample: l"'er'B~

(0) CBlcuia~ tit< ,_10 etandard _.

"""'"

2-3. n.e: nme nlcas~ 1bat follow ire

6nnace ~perntu.re$ ~akd on 5UC· ~'Yc 1;mtches ill I ~Ond\KlQl' man,lao"""" P"""" ("'"" ... oF): 95). 915.948, 951, ~51. 949. 954. 9'0, 959 fe) CIIl.e,uiate die. sample al'CtBle.

(0) CalcWBte the 5lmp'k- 51iU1dud devi.. woo.

1-4. Omaider we tumac:~ tenperemte dwi iDwt'l:ise2rS.

(a) RIld "." .. "pl.me_ olrh"",dota.

Perel::ndle

Poi.uon diltr:ibuti.clli Poplliatino.

'Probability distributi(lrL ProbohlUty plo'Ii'1i Qumlle

Random YIliabie Ru[] cb&rt S"",plt> Semplcil'il'CllIl1!!

San;rple .stlad&td. Qe\'i.ati1Jl!. Sa:mplc'Yariaocc.

Standard devhrticn of II. disU1outiJ:.D Standard oomt.al dis1ritMioll

Sma ....

Stem.llld-leaf display

TIm~ series plDt

Uni:forrn disoibutian

VittJuce CIt II. cIIltrlburiDll We:IbullllIBn1bur:ioo

(1)) H"",much coWd"'rug'" ,_. .nue mellDtemcll1 ilIcrnse witbout e;billlgjng ~!: ample med1m'J

l~, Yicld ..... gtD5 of clreular rub<> ""'" end np5 am measured. The rust yielr:!5 [in l<N) "'" .. [olio,",; 96, IIl2, \ 114, HMI 126, 12!. "a, lSI

(a) C_"",""'rpl • ...,_.

(b) Cnlculilttl ~t=; :5unpl.e .Jtaadard dovt. aLion.

J..6. The ti.QIII!; tc failure In hours of 31l eleetrcmic c.ompoaelll wbj~ to an a,ccel· eeeted life t.cu if; .s:!:JA:IWIJ ben. Th ~~cmte.lhe failure CCSL, the llnit:! were r.ested It an elev~ tclIlll'eta1;'l.{re, (read down. ttlea KrO:!iIi).

11.' '14 in IIi
125 In 13' 1'31
III 1:ro 1.40 III
". 119 Ll1 133
m 128 1:15 141
.11 133 124 .25
141 137 \2B 140
1$1 11. 1l!l l31
160 142 no m
m 123 172 121 (a) Cth;ulsre. the ~c I.vcc:a,p IiIXl

slaDJ::ls,[d aeviation..

()I) COm""". hetOgMt.

(e) O>"""", •. e st ....... d.lt:af plct,

(0) Find the '""'Pit> ""'d;" lID" d>o ]oM.r ud opper q;uIlItiJes.

2--7. The data ShoWIl here lI'e cbr:mieal precess yield ~adiDJS !II'! !lICI::euht:

. dB:YS {t~ dawQ. thea ;qCroM).

Con.sttUct a bi!Iogram fur eese data. Ccmmem 00 the ship:: o-ftile. hiSlosram. Does it resc:alb~ any oJ [jJe dinn'butiolls that we have, -dis.eYSJed .i.D lhis clmpler'l'

94.1 87.1 94.1 !12.4 114.6 35 .. !I'l,l 84.1 1'2.1 9(1.6 BM 1J6.6 9Q.I 9<H _ '16.4 89.] 85.4 91.7 91.. ~.l 18.' 11.1 19.7 8l..l' 88.1 S6,1 86 .. 86.4 81.6 14.2 ".1 94.3 8'.0 85.1 35.1 BU 95.1 93.2 849 114.0 ag.6 9<)j go.a 86.7 !1.3 93.7 !O.o 9S.6 1'2~ 83.,0. &9., 81.' 9Q.l 18.3 87.3 9'., 90.3 90.6 94.3 84. I B!.6 94.1 93.] 89.4 91j 1Il.1 9 • .2 9>.8 94.6 88.6 '16.1 82.9 lIQ.' 93.] '16.3 )14.1 94.4 81.3 'lO.<I 80,4 94.7 82.5 96.1 i6.4

\ 89.' !1.6 91.1 13.1 98.0 84.5

t, 2-8. ~ article in QuaUty Engineeri", (\obl _ ..__.. 4, 1992, pp. 4R'I-49'l presents vi9<colty dua fIo~ a batch c:hemical. pro::ca_ A sample of ~est:: data is presented bere

(read doWtI. th~1l a.crOSS)_ .

1l.3 14" 1~.:l 15.3 14'; 14.1 IS.' 14.5 ]4.1 14.1 14.3 16,1 13.1 15.5 12.. 14,6

14.9 .3.1 lU 14..! !.S.3 '5.1 15.B 13.3 14.1 LI.' 1.5.l .5.2 lS.9 16" 14~ Il.l

]$.8 11J1

11.1 ·14.9

]:1.1 11'

13.4 15.3

14.1 14,3

14J 1;'.6

1<.) 16.1

1~_3 119

II.. 15.1

16.9 14,'

14.:1 1 •. 0

16.9 14A

l •. s 1:30.1

L5.l 13.8

14.4 15.6

15.2 14.!

14.3 15,4 15.' I'.B

11.0 14.9 14.1 14.0

14.1 H'i:A. 1.4.2 ll.l

12-8 16,1 1M 15.6

{

I

l 1 {

I l 1

1

I

2.-1L

(0) COOstrucl • """,·_·]oaf di$play fcrtbe.~itydltl.

(b) Construct iI. ~etlcy disrriwticl[j lndhistogram.

(e) eoo...n.., ..... "" .. l<oIiplot;"p ... (a) iIJto IrJ ordered stem-:B.IId-lc-af plor.. U~ f,bkgnph to miSt ill locat,.. Inl tl" ~ .. d !be 'pper and lower qu.1IJtiks Q{ tbe 't'l&a:lSity diLL

(<I) Wba1 ee the !1CIb ODd ,101ll p"',

"""loo of ,",,";tyl

Coc~ct IDd iIlt=pret a oormlll probability plot 01 .... velum .. of!b, li",1c! de'b!rgeI\t bocde.s in Rxcrcise l-1. C_ IIDd 1n'"'Jlt& a """"" pr0bability plot of the ~e fumaee temperaan. .nc.&suIerDCclS in Blk1ciSe 2~3. CotlSlnlGl: 8 normal probability plot of me fallUIr. lime datil ~D Exercise 2-6. Doc.!; lbe. :Qsumption tbat f~ure uee .fer this campol1t.nI ts wen modeltd by I DOIlllal di&nibuOOn :ICCJIl O=lIo~B.btl:'i' COnstruct ;II IJODIlid prtt'IabWl}' plot Df the eht:mfcal ptcc.c$S )lwd data in ExerciR 2-'jI_ p.ol!:,'i me assumpticlD that· _ yield is _ m<>dol..J by • DOO-

mill dilll':Ibulkln seem Eea&onable7 Cans:idu !:be viscoliity da(a ill fucrcife 2·!" CClo5irm:l a DOmlal P'QNbllity plot., .. lognonnal 1""bability pI"" IIDd • Weibnll probab;Hty plot for """" !1m. Besed ell tilt: pt!lUi, wllieb di!bilmtLor:!. $CCHL5 to be the best m~ t'qr the 'Y1:seo:sitydatl7

FoUDWi['Jllte 20 observatioos on cycle.s !O !inlure of lIJumilhl.rn test CQ!.IpalS sobjwted t!l repeaTed altc.mallr1i mt:S!I or lj',ooo Jli~ at 20 c;ycld per.semOO.

2.-12.

2.-13.

8018 I,..,. 13912

15504 11193 1~~ I

9418 sm 2!i12 7911 11lIIl !lW

34D1 ill61 201. 19041

6168 1334 6110 21991

COm""" • ,onna! probability plo •• lo.@;normlll pr{]bl!!blT:l:I)' plot, anorl ill WoibuU p_ill1l' plot tor tboI< d ea.

-

, L_----.

BtJ.:I;Cd OCI Ulc 'pWtl. whlt::h d,isQibudoo
seems 10 be <1>, eesr mOOd for <1>. 0)'<100
[C failure for this maeria.l1 2-,24.
]..lS. AIl tmpO:rtat.lt qlJaiity cha:t:;u;teri!lic of
W~I[I=:I li: the. COl}I;eQn-aQot! of suspended 1-l5.
solid material (to ppm}. FolllJ1,1,1ing m;e
40 ~r.s co aLlSpeodeclllDlids
(!:)fllt:::l!rt:a.!tlU-
0.11 9.99 1.26 a.u 3.\6
4.33 !l.10 0.21 ]2S.91 I.J()
0.15 0.20 O,~ 13.72 0.9.
D.:I9 2.93 :Hi5 '_41 1.13
IU\ \.79 O.~, 14.11 0.611
0.09 5.11 '.17 ,um 0.41
4.1S .,82 1.30 4.51 14.1'
0.'" 1.94 3.5"1: 2ll-10 4.91 CcmtfU(:t 8 normal pn:jba~ plot. a lDJllCln:mal prchabtH(y plot, and II WoiliuU p"'bobiHty pi'" (O' d>:« -. 'Basod DB u.c plCll9-, ."hlCh distr:i,biltiOtl .scelll!i \cI be the ben model for f;be con .. cl:!rMI'alioa of .suspended soli.r:l5j

2-16. CoDsidertbl!''Io'isoosity dB.CAin~i!B 2- a. As ..... <hal_go""" ..... """'" Il\les '!he dars. in time! order.. CoaBttUd:

LIlli {cteq;tef a time-liCrit:,!i p):DL •

l~17. RctOllSlocr the },ietd datlll m

ExcroEsc l-l, CQnlitruC1 I!I Qmc.--.$oCrlea plot for thC$e: 4Ert&, In{erp!I![ the plel.

2.-18. ConsiderthecoocentraQcnoi.'!u~ toIids ~ E)LereJ.e '2-15., AUl,I.me Ibm. :reB.dLne, lI:J(lS~ een down gn.cs (he dalil in ti:n:Ie order. Coll3tnld and intapret a tim~Clp'O'[.

2--19. Consider I11I:l ch~a.t ~-oemiEi yidddiita ~ B~e:rd$,e 2,·7. Calculate me sazoplG 1Mi~ end sundoml dcvtatioa.

2.20. ConI;idut11c.c~ ~ yield dam in ~ 'l-'7. COD~bUct I ~andled plot for the dala Jud compare it with lb. bls'_ from E>;<l'ciso 2-1. WhiI:h Wipllf)' prOVides moo: Lnftrnnatioo aboul !be 1"",,",,1

2.21. Consmaa a bel,.: pkl! f(Jf ~ data ill. ~'l.1.

l-:2l. C~IlSU\l~1 III bol. pkII: fur lhe. data in El:creiso. 2~2.

1~:Z3, 5dppOle thar IWO [air dice are: lCI5S~ :and the r.mdom vs.rlBhlc ob$.crved--fl~, .lU me .s1ol:ID oD_f the two up facm. DC!lctibe

tb6 ~e liPaec of ow. ~!Je::rimrnt, and. "",,,,,.,,, rbe prnb_.<y <11."","_ '"

..

nod thc meen and vaIllIDc.;e. ~ r;.be rII:idom varlabk in B~erci&C l~1.'3.

A mechar.roiUe BSS~ty it 5tlbj~ re iI 51:1111' funetional U:lt. Suppose: ¢lilt defl:as: oecur It randOm Ie these esembDt.!5, and tn,1.t ddec.t:5 eccur a,t;gQrdin:e: ,0 I Po.issOCl disnibudoo with ~r i\. =0.02.

(II) Wbat is the, problbility \bl!lt an u$l:!m.b!,y wilt beve ~&C'tly ece d.ekc;rj

(b) What is the:. prObability' th!1 an a.ne:mbl)' will. beve ooe or more "d"",",

(c) SllJ!po.sc that yQIJ. impfCYt: the. proceu SQ I,hlt me occurrence :rate .of ~feCu i! cut in hili (FJ ).. ~ 0,01. What I!ffc:ef. does this ha...e on !be pr(lbabOll)' lbat .an' wembly will hav.eQtlc-crmare cl.efedsi

~2.6. The preb.a.bllil)' diStributiOli. of xi,' j(;r)=a~,OS.:rSN.FinOtbc~Ire value ICE k. Fmd thc mean and WlL:.".. of ..

']...Z1. Thll! rJDdom varia:b!e .x takes: on 1b~ values I, l. or :3 ~ith prDblLIbillw (\ + 3kYJ. (1 + 21<)13. "'0 (0.5 + 5<)1). respc:eti\'el'l-

(0) FllI<l rbe appropri • te value of Ie. (0) 1'lnd the- mean end msnce -Df X-

(,.;;) FiCd [bl:l. cumulltu\le disrribuQOll ft,meooo,

]"2B. The pot>bobiliIy "'tt!buD'" of <1>. di>; !:tote randl:ml '1aril!b!e .:r ~ p(.l:) =:. kr •

{I 0:::.-< l_FiDd lbeappropriBte Yll~for • .l:;ih=-O,I, ..

2-19. A manufacnner of eIect:ror.ie eueutaees den. iii one.-;"clT'WartllIlr;y.lftbe. el1cublOT fails for Ply rta50n during this pmiI:rl. if i.s lCplllttd. The tUne to failure is 'W~11 mOOclcd by the funowilll proba· bility_tiOo:

j{x)"'O.1254'~1~ x:>D

(.a) \Vbitt percenrage of Ibe .ealCIJ]~lOn will f&r1 ... itmo 1M -ty pe"""~

(\:I) The mM)ll!lIicUirir'_~ C06t m I ea.Icul. 10' ~ $~o. """ lb. poru per ,ale i.I $1). Wlm i.I <be oIfecl of wman<Y replacert'lClllon pn:rti[?

n.e n,e[ ooortms in Q~ of c:aAD!od sOup is I!o nndol1l \laritble with problb~~ -ityrnnlibuti.o.c

1(.')~{'('~11.7') 11-150<, 012.25 4{n.7.5-z) 12,;2l ~:I: s:: 1:2.75

Find ~ prCIba.b~ll[j' fuu , can conta.i.ns !I:sI Q.III\ 12 00: of product.

A prOOucti.cm p!'tICCS!i opaattl wifb 191't DC'IllCOotmmin.a: DUtpl.lt. J3lIery hour ill slUnpJe.at 2.5 units til prcdtIer: is tiliD., mel tb!l 0'lIIIlbe:r of ruJcconfCN:ming UulU CQIIDcecl. If Qac at mmc IIODOCIofum!jtll Ilnl.t:il ~ folmd. the: process ~ &lDPpeC ana; dlC: quality oonu:tll t«:hnicj:jUJ. tIlust 1IIWcil for me ClIUe of DODlXlPfomuDI producticn. Sva.lllate tbl:l. peztorm.ance IOf thi$ dcclsh:m mle,

1-3:2... Canl1.'l111-ation at brd!e 2,.31.

CmIsicler the deeisioQ IUle dC9crite:l ill Exuci5e, Z~31. Si1ppOSe ilI.I rne prcc!lS5 snddenly dcterioc:a..tcs '[0 .% .DiJIlCO,'Ofc:mnin.K cmput. HOWf tt'lany s:ample.J, en ~.e, will be n:quired ro cletcl;;t this?

~ A __ pie· of'~ wUy j. dmnI

frem a pro:I.u~ pro~ MY bllt b~c fnction Of EIOIicol'l!crndng pro'"'" ""'''''_ .. O.W. \vb.Ua ~jIH>b.'ih""".~ trao-

~ ri(Jr;:! oocc-onfClC'J1Jil3g r~ I~ O,Q2'l'

(,-~i" A .$~e oc 1 00 (.1W~ is ~elo=tcd fiom a C· prodnmort~, tbat IS 11;1. ROncon--

fcomiot<. Wbat ~ <be pn>b&bIti<y <l>ot P will exc;ct:d me. true fruliOCl neeccofOnnln!: by k...- d"""rioos • .."-1,1, and3'?

An e\el::1I'OnIt [;Q[UpOr:ll!l'l'Il fer Jl medieal x~rn) unit is prtduced m lOIS of:ili.e N • 2j, An ao:e:pclIDOe tWing p~ is tiled by Inc pwcbllSQ" [-0 p~ct alBillB' kts 'Itu., cmwc roc tJta1I,y tJOneQII(or:m. .in!:: ¢OmpCID~t:I, 'The: ~e.durt coo&i:sts of selecting fiVl'! cOmpoCt=1lU I' IBIldom. 1rmtl<l>'''I(""",,",,",,I= .. ,) ...

",,"og <l>ern. U nil .. of <1>. "'mpo"'" whaULJbe. probo!>ililJ"'~

is noaocniomUng, !:be lot h' lliCc'q1ced_ ' __ '. 9c~d at rlDdom will C(lamin at leHl:

(II) H the! Io[ etIcllllios twO IXIc.cCD~ .. ~/ .. QlJe sucb def~,?

"'" ".npooon". what i.I <1>. ptObo·· 2-4Q. billin~ "-1 of. mai" oodI.

biIfl:}' oflQ't acrept:a.nc.e? ta:rd company atmmpa ro c:ootrOl emn

(b) Calcutl!tc the desired probability in (clt:nl: .... d.ata l!'8Jlmliuion. etc.) 01\ CU$-

(I) ~g the blncmiIJ ~tI:~ tome::r1' bill!. SufIllOSC lhilt ~ 0IX'1Jf

!:l0J]. Is UU3. a:pprox:UnatiCro IBOs:fa,c~ tori? \Vb), 0'1 why ~

«l SuppOIO '"" 101 ,"" .... N~ 1>1).

Wou!O <1>, _.rnal ~ . be ~lItiIfaet(lty ill this ~'i'

{Ii) Suppose !:bat the pW'!;b..uI!f 'ffill rt-jl!d the lac wifh the dor.iJion role of fiDdiug one or ~ nom:lXIfor.mjn!!: eempeneen in a sample. of me 1.1, and: WUB '!be lot co be rt:je.ced wi<l> prnI>abllity " lea. 0.9S If <be lot efllJwes five!: ox mom D.C1I:1I:01l~ fonning CompoIlCOI1i. How luge should me .sample $im !'i be?

1-36. A lot 01 sm: N =-30 !;cota.ln.s three"DCIne~mfc:nning 1lni[5, WhaI il tbe 'PKlbE!lbility '!hat II .sample offiy~ nnir.!i Jelected a.t . random CQntams cxecdy eee DQII.COn- 10"""" ,nit1 Wb •• i. !be p:cb<l>illty [bIU It t:ootlim one or 1ll0J:e OOQoon1iot'-

('~::'I.....,<a7

: l-3i" A ~[book bas ~~.Jl~gg_.QIl which ..._~ • IypOllr::tpbieal 4 errors could occur.

S"PP"'" <l>ot ...,.. ... ...,dy Iq..L"'" er&"m$ randotnIy locar.ed 00 chOIr! pages, rUtd tb.e prnba.bllity that:8 IIndom seieedan Clf :sO :PI~ Will cortIii[l "DD ctm1'SF'uod "'" ptcb.biU<y Ibar SO randomly seJlIcrcd ~ will CIlIlta.iq. lit le&ft rwo ....-on.

l-J3. Su~--:anish defects ilJ III smalJ ejeetric appllaoa: cecur I( raodcm with a mmn ,.,. ot 0.1 ddb:~ 1"" uol< Tho the probUU.hy t1:!illt :II. ra.:odcml)' selected I,mit wiP contain AI JC&!it ooc surfacc-fuUsb dolC<:<

(~rn .. , bo_ .,. form'" by pourinll '<::> ~ gl$ into a mold. The molIeQ , .... is p'"f"F"l La. n.",,,,,, IlPoO .. <I> fitobri<k. AI> ille IU<bciok _. small pieces (If brick are mixed iolO tbe molten I!:I;(~ and. fiully appetr II dofec .. (eall.d "51"'"'; in !be botm. II

we cao U.7IlMe tbll[ :skmtIs (lCOIl" randoll2l.y at tl1~ n~~r..O.oooot.--per beme..

1-41.

accordiog to :II PoiuOQ dis:lribadon witb parameter .t c 0_01. What h; ~ probebOicy dillt t. eastomcr!,I; bill selected at random will ~GI1t!.in c:ae ector?

A plCld.uctiofi process Clpera~ i.1:I une, of 2-45. fW.CI' sta.te:s~ tbc L:c-oo!ltrGl Slate., ill w1tic;;h

most or rhe uniu. produced C(lnf~ lO fP'tclfielttilJoll$, and an CUHi"-Ctll1t:rel

~lJIte> in wb.it::b most m tbe units pr0-

daced IU'e d~tive. nw pr(J(;CS5 will

$hift: fmm the in-cO!ltrol 10 .. ollC~of-

c;;QotRIl $Wf ar randCHll, Bvcry hOlY, a

qnBliIy «IMtI)l, t~hniclan c:hecks the I2Qc~~. lind if It t:s in the. out-or~mtrQl

Ilab!, the tuhniCIm dctcCui tb.i.s witl:! 2-46. prol:lli!l'bility p- AlsUIDe that wnCIl the

pmc~s shifts out of co[rtml it ooC$ .5D _ .. y foilowi"l! a cbKk by t!>o ~ hlSp!!CCDr, !!IllI eeee Ii: shift b8& cccuned, L 2-47\ the. JllO~S (ElDot IJ.lromadedy ~t '-J itself. If t dmJ(Jt~ tbe number or pcrlods

'!be pr.aces5 reItlBn:5 0111 g( eo_oJ. fut~

lowing a shift beflJrc dctcdioo, IlDrl ilic?~ "",,"'Ilizy d;, .. bo!t1o, of I. Find ""; l~ mean CAmber of periods Ule praecu will . ' ............ £cm.aSc in !:be tlut~ot-COlltrot .sta~_

AJl inspector is lmiking ror ngl1~llf1fiJl'mIDg wcld< I. <flo gasolio._pipollw> bct\\l~ Phoenix and 'nlea:Jc. The ptQb-

ability !bol "'Y panil:ulas weld "'ill be 249. defective;s 0.01. The jaspoclQr is de[t!r-

.,;..,d ro ~eep worlrini u..u findlno

~ ile&c6ve welds. H [he welch I![C

J.ot.m.d I 00. It tpart. what is lobe probll-

l;Iilit}' li1'tat IbI!; inSpe.tIOT w.i11 n;tvll!: IQ

walk l~OO ft"I WbaI. ~ !b, "",bahlUI'j

lhat!:be i.nspedOr will hIVe to w~ more _3(J)Oft7

The tctl!iilc ~gth of • TM;tal pitt is llOIlIIO.IIy dismbutcd wilb ...... 4a Ib and ,,..,dan! <leviation 1 lb. If Sa,OOO pIttS IIfC produced, how many would )'GU~ol'[Qfafiromeclllmi.oi.t1lnm !iPl:elficJl.ti.oo Iimi t oCr 33 Jb tr;[]$,ilc :nrcngr,b. 7 E'Clw rt'WJ,)' woold have Ii!! tensile s~.in exem Q(481b7

Th.~OOlJltlt volhlge ~ II power sup'pl~ is 2·50.

~y discribun:d ~rb mean S V and sta:adard dcYianCJn 0.02. V. 1f we- lower

and QPPCI" spedftewOOf IoCr vobF an:

243.

'4.95 V ind 5.05 V. msl""'">dr, 'wbat i. me probmility lhll a ~ supply eetected It wd.ol:D. will coof'OmI. fO tbc spo:ifk:ati.cos O~ voltlp!'1 Cout1nu.Uon of E:r:oI!.rd.llc 2-44. Re.:=crulder ilie powel supply mlUlufac:· OlIinl process ill EX$lse '2.-44. Suppose: we w.aJPd rtI im.prmn=. tbI:! prc:a!&5_ Can 9biftiJ:1g the mc:an :'1:4~ me Dumber ollKl~onnio, uniu produced'? Bew much woold [be p:roOClS \llriaWliry nee:! [0 be :reGllccd 10 lX'Cier lei have aU. but ece. cur of 1(1)J units (leO.form to I:ti.e :q::ecl:fiaatioCls"

Hx [s Il~Y diJtn""huted"Wid!. mwt}1 and :MQJ.dEl(d ~i&tior:l fou:r, and liven !bot ~ p.oo.bilily!bol x Is l,ss _)2 is o.022B, find the "1I,ble (Jf p.

The Bfe of an a'UlDllIotivc bitter)' is normally dimib\l(ed with melD 900 d.a.~ and aW'kiard. tJe.vi;alioo' 3~ days. WhIIt frar;d.(l[l of tnl:!5e blltrcrics weald be expected ttl sUfVi~ tqtamd 1000 48.Y.5l1 A ti.gh.tbJ.lb has B oorrnally di.!JIribnted light ourput wltb ll'I.eall !iOOO :CDC foct· caadles IC.d 5!aodwl cfevlaUoo of ~O end foct-eandles. FI_[]d II )OWU spo!=ific:ii!lnon Umlt <Ow tIW OQly 0.5$ o{!be bollbs will. not ex.ct!l!C lhi$limit.

The speeifiellWlJlI DO an ckcuDnie cgmPOfU!!O( in a tarll:l~quiQtioa system lite tba.f: J(S llf~ Clll!ii be betwcea 5000 aod ta,OOO b. The life ls ,omWIy ,"""buted wkh mean 1500 h. Tbc manutactum t.all= • pdee, 0[ S 1Q "'" unit p~uccd; however, d~cti.ve urdU tnll.5l[ be repller.d Itt a ~t (Ii 55 ttl the macufa.crurer.. Two di.ffcm:tt mllnufacturlnl pnx:e,st:S CIIn btl I,I5cd... bocb of whk:h beve me ,,2mC tru!lW ute. 1Jowever, the sumda.rtl !jcrimioD of life fmprocess t ;, 1000 h. wbt:ccu (or proc.t.!~ l ir b oraJy SOO h. Pro:I~r:I eese lor procw.l UI: twice mose ~ prOOeSt 1. VIllE!!! ~.tInc. of prodLlC'dOtl. cOOi!~ will -d·dcl1tlint!l the I5Clcc:tioo l:icNIeen prcceaaea I and 21

A q~alit)' clm.{.B.C;rt::I'1Mic: of B: pKldnct is normally di5lributt:d w:ltb mean p. and andatd devWiao. one, Spec:ffical:ions onmeth~t:i.c.1lft:6S.:z~8.AUJJ.it

that falls wiUJin ~DIlS DO this _quality ~ris:ti_c;: resuits in a profit . at.;. HQWcv~r, if ~ <: 6, !he pre&; II

-C •• wb.~u: .if x ;=;> "81 the pltlfilis -Cz, FlDd [be value of J! 11111,[ ~ ttt~ ~prn~I.

2-51. Derive the- meaD IUd "'fII.tiaDee of the binomial, wnribuQQn,

1-52. Dc:riw me. melD .and' vaDancl!l of "!be l'oI_dimibo_.

l--53. Derive Ute. (CelD 8IId wriad~ Gf tbc expone:t1l5a1di5trlllutioll.

3

Inferences about

Process Quality

CRAPTER OUTLlNIl

1·\ STATISTlCS AND SAMPLlNO DISTIUBUTIONS

J.l.l S.",pJ ... &om. Nonoal V""""'_ 3·1.2 Sa<apllnl!<om. Bcm<>'lll Ootrl"",,,,,, J.l.J Somp1lnr ("'OU Po"''''' Dis"I .... .",

j.Z POINT ESrIMATIa-l OFPROC&SPARAM~ J.J srJUlSl1CAl. lNFElIENCE FOR. A SINGLE SAMlU

31.11 1~rc:ru:-t. on me ).iIe:an r.i 10 Populatian, '/adan~1!; KnoIm

:3~3.l 'The Use 01 P~Val.U6 for Hypolhub Tcnl:rle 3,3.3 &lIm-renee on the M~' o( a Nermal 0im;1ouion, VOl;"' ee u_

3-),4 lnre~ncc 00 the Vaxia8!;;c

of i1 NGm'J.a.] DU.m'b.u.Jon

,3·3.5 hlfHCDCe on III POpUlMiOll p~ J.l.' Thol'<obobJl'" ofT'IP' II Ern><

and 5"""", SUo Doci,Io".

;., STATISTICAL INFERENCE

fOR TWOSIIMPLES

l-4,] lnf~.!1\Cr: for.ll. Di."~~ 11'\ Mcaru. -V~anwKn(lrlm

3.-4,1 l:nI~l!f.'II;t!or III Dttfaa:1ee i.n MI!mLI ofTwc Nocmt.l Oilnlb.1ItiOn.!~ V!atlaru;e$ UN:;nown )-4J lnk1tme!: I:n lha VBl'l~ o(T""o Normal !)t,,_

3'~,,4 infcnmc;e m Two Popul.adon ProponiOn!

s-s WHAT1FTHEREAREMORETHAN TWO POI'UlATIa-lSl11iE ANALySIS CEVARlANCE

l·5.1 An b.mplo

3-5,2. 1lte Arlalyw. ofV;ananC.e.

1·5.1 a..efin, A..._d""" Roo",".! At1al! ••

Supplementli!l] ~teI!al fOl" Chlpte ~ 53·] _ SOmpi<:.

Sl~l Expcl;.t~d Value ;md, VIII'L2ftte Opct1tDh 53.) P.oc(,*,,,, E(1): ~ ,"d<I~). 0' S3~4 MOle UO'Ift Pau,memr Etrlnurkn

SJ·.s, Proof the[ E(~11111 a

Sl-6 MGt!! IIobolSt o.~kirt.KkllJ.tlL?'tiOrui in r;he [~T~tt

5)·1 E.po<.cd Moon Sq .....

in W Sinll~-Fac:CQt AN.lyJh 0( V.d~

CHAl?TI!R oVEltVIBW AND LEARNING OII]ECTIVES

In thl pr~vi,o\lschapter we discussed lhe use of probability disttibuti[ms in modeling 0' describing the o.<pu. of • process, In all Ill. exampl es presented we asoumod Ill .. the p~s of the proba.b1liry distribuden, and, hence, the p;uameter~ af ~ prOC~. w~rc known. Ns 11 U5Ua1ly a very 'UlU'erili.sti~ assumption. For example, m uslllJ the. binOID:lal disttiblltion to model the numher of noncoDionning un:i15 foond in sampling from a pccdueucn process. we assumed that the parill..ffiete! p of me binr:mlial dj,stribution WItS known. The physical interpretation o.f p is tPat il is me true fraction of nonl:onfonning uoiLS pre-

-

duoorl by the proc .. ~. I. " impossible to know this """,tiy in • real production _. Fnrtbenno~ if w. did know the ece vol"" of P end It was relatively COMtant 0Yel: time W~ could ugu.e thar formal process monitoring and eentrol procedures were unnecesury:~ pIOYided p was """"Publy" ..,all. •

In aon=l. tho p ... arnerers at a process"", unknown; furthermore, <bey ean "wally ¢b1Ul€:e over ~~. ~erefare, we need to develop procedures ro estimate lhe parameleri of probabtUI)' distribuuollS .BIId seive other inference. or aceisi-oQ·orila'lted problelm rel.arive [0 lhem. TIll standard statistical techniques of parameier e.slimation IltId hypothes1.s: teGt~ ln~ are useful ill this ""P'CI. 'Ibeae teclmitjU ...... tho \toderlying bOltis for IIIlJcb .f the m,,th.ooolagy of stm.tielll quality ccneol. In this chopl .. we present some of the elem en- 1m}' ,..wB or. '",:tis:tieal inf~. indioatlllg it> usefuln ... in qualit)' ;mpro""ment prof>. ~s, ~Y tapaC!!; mclude. pomt and c(]nfide-nee :int~al estimation of means. vadances, &tid b:ino.mial perameters, hyPothesis tesrlng 01'1 means, variances, and binomial pa:ra.met:us. OIld Ill. use of aermel prob>bility pill".

After careful .rudy of Ibis ehaprer you should b. abk to do the foUowing:

1. &p loin tho concepr of tlIondom ""'pllng

1. EXplaill the """""I" of •• ampling distributiDn

3. Explain the general concept of ~rlmEl.dnG 'Ib.e panrn.ew.s of II population or probability distribution

4. Know bow to explain lite precision with which a P:UBm-eret is esnmated

5, o, .. truet end interpret ooofidenc. mtorVw On • Single moan ODd on the differ. ence in two :melDS

6. Coru:lnlet a:nd inrerprer CDnfidence in.tervals on a single vartmt:e I)r lhe. ratio of two veneaces

,. COIl.1Il"Uc:t:a.n(l interpret confide.nre intervals on :a single proportion and on the

~erence in tw~ proportions

8. Test hypolhe.ses on a single mean and on tbf; difference in two tnellllJ

9. 1'65"t hypotheses an a single Wriance and on the ratio of fINO variances

10. Test hypotheses en a &Ingle Pf-opomon'llIlci on the difference to Ni'O prcpornocs

11. Use !be P·volue IPJln"I"b fer byPDtbuio testing

1.2. Understand bow the .. lily ... at von"",. (ANOVA) i. used .o' test hypatheo es seem Ill. 'qllBlity of more th"" two mem.

I

i

I

I

i 1 i

3·1 STATI.snCS AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

Thf; Objective of !tatisticaJ. inference is to draw conc1usion.s 01' mate decisiOn! about Il pop-ulation based on n sample selected from the pCJplIlanaD. Freqil~JI~ we wlU essnme th1l.t MnDmn samples are used in the. analysis, The word "mndomn is OfiC!fl Bpplied ttl &IlY lIl<thod Or .ampl. ,~on that l.w S)'"ematic dire.otlon. We will de!ln e.a sample-- .. y. xl • .l2. - _ •• Xn-In a random sample of size n uit is setected sc lhat the. ob&e:rvatiOn:!!i {Xf) ". ind'p.nd."tly iD>d id,otiCJ!lly dj"U;bcted. 1bis definition is "'liable for random samples <hawn from infinite populations or from finite papolorio", where .lIlIIpllng is per. famed with rep/~c.t'mem_ In &:ampling without replt1ctrnent from a finite popula.tion of N i_teTllS we sa)' that a l'a:mp1c of .t\ itemS is a random sample if eacb of the ~ pMsiblc.

"""" ..

..... :PIIPl"llltiarl~ .. ,,=,.:.~m ... ~" ....... ""' 'J-.......

drwillllOl'I_:__ ..

. . ·FtJI1I'1! 3--1 RdalilmiMp ~1lI1 :pcp4lIWClUO 1Wd." Sl!lm{l~

SIIIIlJlI<5 bo. ." <quill p<obabillty of beio~ chceen. Fig»'" 3-1 jllustretes Ihe relalioosbip between the pcpulsuun end the SIIIIlJl~.

Allbougjl tno .. of the nwthods w. wlll $Indy ... sumo that romlom sampling bas heOIl used, _. are ,_,>I 0_ SlllDpling """«sJes tha, are occasiOOlally useful in quality eectrol. Care must be eeeseised to ·UIiiCI a llll:th:!){l of analysis that is ccnaiatenr with the .5~ pllni design: in.fcrence techniques intended. for random saaiples can i~&d to s.erious: errors wileD appUed to data obtained from ether ..mpHng technlque ..

Statisti~a1 inference uses quantities COlIlputed from the observations in the ~pJe, A statistic is dWne.d as any function of thp:- sample datil! that does not c.oo.tlin u.nlalown pan.me.w,s. Far ~amplc:. let XL~ x';h' '. x.. ~pre:sent the observations. in a . sample. Then tI\o """pie meon

i(~,_I)'

s13l:l......._.... "-I

.a.nd lh~ .samp!e :sWtdud deviation

1=

." statistics. Tho "wtie. " and s (or s') descnb. Ihe oentral tendency and vlll'i.bili1Y, respect; .... e\y. of the sample..

If we know the probabili,y distribution of the populatioc from which the sample ... os taken. we can often detmnin_e me probability distribution of various smlinics: computed from the semple data, Tb, pl"obabillty disoibuuoo of .... listie Is called a ,"",piing dhttibution. We nOW present the. SEUJlpllng distributiolls eaaoelated with three. common .sampling situations..

3·1.1 Sampllnf £rom • Normal DIstribution

Suppose that z is • ncrmolly di.trlbutt.d nndom variable with mean I' and wriJu><:o ri'.lf :tl' .~, .. . XII is a. random sample of size n from this process.. then the distribution of the

(3·1)

(3-5)

'ample mean x io N(J4 .rIo). Thi. follow. diree~y from lb. <eSul .. on tho di,ttibution of Ilnea.r OOJIlbinatic.l1S of ncrmlll random vad,bl es in Secticn 2"3.1.

"Tb;. proporty of th e s ample mean Is not r es uicted exclu.<ively to tI\o case of wnpling

from normal pOpulations, Note that we may write .

An importanl .... pling dis,,:ibution define<j in term. of the oorrnlll diS!tilmlicn is the chl-sq.are or t <iatrillution, If XL' X" " . , • x. arc normally and bnlepen<!eoay dislrihu.ted random vwbles with mean :zC!to and variance one, then the. random varia.h1e.

(3·4)

(3-2)

Several chi-square ctistdburions are sbowJl in Fig. 3-2. The. distribudcn is skewed with ~",Ji ~" and vllrillnce ri' .. 1n. " table of th, pcm:eotRge pOints 01 the ehi~""", di ..

tnbunon [:5; gl'\len in Appendix TBhle UL .

To rn1)$tnIe tho 1)$, of tI\o chi .. ,,".,. distribution •• uPPO<e thot ~l' x" , • ~. I •• ran. dom ..... ple from III NfJJ, ri') disn;bution. Then the random variable

has, a chi.·sqUBR dirruibut.ion with It - I degrees of freedom, However, u:!m: 1:1I:p.lati.on J.~2, which defines me. .sample variMce~ we may rewdte equation '3~.s as

y=~

a

=:~:O~. '''''''ling clisll:ibution of (n - lJl'/ri'is .t. _ L when sampli!lg.from • normal

't

_"_'

l _

_ n=! -"",10, ~" .. 20

J'iBW"ll 3-.1 Chi.-JqnaR c!!11n"'bDri0il IDI 5'Clcr;~d. nJlW Figure J..3 ~ t dbillJ"'bGl)n 1itlr .slice:=! Vp"~ at!:

of ,II (oum.bc:r(]rd~ Dflicc~). tnumba Dfli~oi! oIfr"dioml.

Anolb« useful SIIIIIPIin& disttibutiOD is lb. I wsbibutiou. If ~ Is • SIlUldm! normal random .lIriob., oed if y is • cOi'''Iu"", ... <1001 variable with k degrees of free<lom. and if x and y are ind<p<:noou, !ben tbe ,moam "ari,bl.

i& distributt:d as I wilb l: degrees offrt.:edom. The probability dist:rihuticm of I is;

_ r[(k+ 1)/21(~ )-l"')/:i f(t)- &r(k/2) k +1

and Ib, ""'" and van= of I are 1'- o and a'l-Id(k - 2) fo,k> 'l.. ,esp"tiVely. The degr= of rn.edom tor i sre the &;greos of modom associawl wi.., !Ire cl!i'SQ\lil< ,"fidem varioble in lb. denominator of equencn 3-0. So_a!, dislributi<Hl' ore shown in FIg. 3-3, Note that if i: = =, the r disrrumti.on n:duc:e.s to me :!itarLdird normal distribntion. A table of per=lt.ge points of Ibe I distribution is given in Appendix 1l1b1e TV.

A, an e>:ltItLple of II. Iandom ..... ariahJe that Is d.ist.j;ibLl'[f~d IS " ~Pp<:lse wr Il' X2, • , •• x,. is , random .ample from 011. N(p, a"l di.lDbutioo. If'i and " are """'p,"od from !his ,,"mplo, then,.

usina thef ac t that (n -1)s'1ci' ~ r._l.Now • .T and" ""independent •• o therondom vari· abl.

hillS III clistiibution with It - 1 degrees of free4om.

Th~' IllS! SBmpling dh:tnDmioIl based on the noanaJ. process that we wiU ccnslder is me F distt.ibu.tion. If w and y are two independent cal-square randQJl! variBblei wi.th J.j U'.Id v degrt:~:5 of freedom: r=sp~criveJy. tbm ~ TaM

F_ !!!_ wjl;

',' y/>

(3·9)

is distriborerl as Fwilh u enmeearor dl:&fU!: off.reedom ilI1d \I denQmmatOt de,gre~:5; offre..t.dcm. If .;c ls an F random. variable with II m.nnentor and \I df:llOminBlor degrees of free~ <10m. then lb. d.isttitrolion i&

(3-7)

__ ;I!~S.l'·lO __ M .. IQ,l'_lC __ H .. 2D,~""lO

(3-10)

Several F Wsttibution, ee shown In Fig. 3-4, A !able of pel«m'age pom .. of !he F diatri- 1rutiO. is Ii.,", in Appondix Thbl. V,

As an 'eumpJ= of a random variable mat is wrtribllted as F. nlPpou.: we. baJle. two

in •• d,", normal p,oce,s<.- .. y, x, - N (,u" o1),!lIld ... - Nf,JJ", a'-,), Letxll, x" ,

XI ... be II random Jample of 11] observa1ion.s from me first nonml process and .r21, .l'no .

~: be a n:indom satnple cf" size ~ {rom me S~~, 11 ii and ~ are the "Ample vari~~.

tb<n W. "tin ..

sUrf.'

PI" - F •• _l,.,_. 1 •

Thi, follow. direoIly from !he sampling disttiboltion of i' discussed prmously. The F distriboltion "'ill be used in maldng -= about 1h. variances of """ normal disttibutions.

__ ... 1[1,1'.5 __ .1111 HI, ~.lD __ ".HJ..~. ZO

(3-8)

I

FlI:\ft 3-4 1ba Fdiwilwll;iOfl &!r ~t.Cr&d "~lIes of rt (a~ ~1 offn:dlOI2I.] and 'II {~I;IIII.La.[Qrdtptt:!l aJhllIoII::Il"

10 12

3-1.2 s"",pt;ng no"" • Beenoulli Distribution

1lI this secdcn, we: discuss the slDD.pl1.ng dlltribUliops of .s.tatiSti~ ussccieted with the 'Bernoulli disttlbution. The randoDl variable .'t with pmbelbillry Iuecdon

is called B Bemoulll random varlla;bl~. That is, ..l: takes 011 the V:WJC 1 'Witb prDbmbUity p and mo value 0 with probability 1 - p - q. A reallzalion of this random variable is oft", ctilltd a Bernoulli trial. The S:-CqtI~ C1fBemoulli trials .%I~ .'t2. _ , . , is a B~cum prQCC.l5S-, The. autc.amC x ;;;; 1 is often I~.alh::d ..... S'IlCCeSs:/' and the cctcorne .t ,;;;; 0 i& often c~ "fail-

ure,"

Suppose tb~t n landom sampl~ of It obse:rvornms---.sal'. xII 4 . , . I .x-o;j-is Wten from • Bmloulli P""'''' with """,tan, I"0b.billty of success p, ThOll mo su .. of the .ample cbservatiOI\&

(3-11)

hili a binomial distribution with pilnJllCt~ J'l And P. Furt:h.ermore • .since each xt is either 0 or I, the sample mean

is • dlOCll:OC random vatioble with ""'g" 'p.o. {O, !In, lin, ' .. , (II - 1 )/n, 1), TIle diatribution of i can be obtamU. ftom the- biDcEDial since

""d

rr.:spectiw.l:y_ This same ruu]t was given previously in Section 2~1.2. where th~ tandom vatioblo;; (often .olled <he sample fraction nonoonforming) W" introduced.

)..1.3

SamplIng frOIJl B PoasOD. Di5tr:ibution

The I'<rlsson dislribllti"" was iII<roduced in Section 2·2.~_ Consldu. Wldom semple of siu ~ front a Poisson di:rnihuriCin whh para;meter .\-say, .It. X10 ' ••• .\".11" The distriburlon of Ihe sample sum

(3·12)

is also Poisson with parameter nA.. More pnerallYt the S1lm of n independent Poisson ran~ __ , .. iklm. vada\tIo.sis dlmibut.df'pl",on_ wid> porameIOf "IuallO lb •• um of th.o individual

Poissnn paimne.tilll~"""-'/ .. -,., - -_. ~ '-... ,-., . ...j, -_:~ '-.,---,,~

Now eensider the di:nrlbl.lr..i,Qn of the sample mean.

(3-14)

This .. a di"",," random vati.bled>.t takes on th. voJues {Q, lin, 2In. _ .. I, and with prcb.bility di.tribution found fr_

(on1·-'"(".1.t

P{Hol-p{xs""J- I.--- (3·1l)

,1:",13 kl

'L'\!'b:ere (tna) is the ~e~[ integer h:ss tban Of ~ua1 ED ~H. The mean iiUlCi vanaeee ofi are.

Jl. -.1. ...

and

a .1.

CTj-=-

"

respeaive~y.

Sometimes. IllQfe generaJ.line..ar comhinatimJ.1 of fojswn random. ~mab.Lcs am used in quality-.cngineering work. 'For eXample, considt!-f the linear combination

L- .a, Xl +az~ + ... + cJlIIX'1W ~ i tlrl:1 '_I

(3·16)

(3-13)

where the (x,] iItO ind'llerul.ut PclssO~ random vllli.bl .. each ha'linll pHlIllleter [A,), respeCtively. and lbe [~} are constants. 'I'bis ~ affunction occu[sin sib.J.arions wbere a unit of product can have m different type.! of defect; or ooncoofe<miIies (each mcdeled with • Poi."", distribuIion with param_ .1;) and ,<he fuuetion ,.,ed. t",_qu!!ity IllOcitOJlnl pmposes is:·a unee- combinatioo of the numbe-r of observed ncmccn.fon:n1tici of each type. TIle constants {~rHn eq"sricn 3·16 might be ehceen to weight scree ~.of non__ lies more b""",ly IlwI od>crs. For ",ample, function&! def<cts ~on a. unll 'o/!"'ld teCeiv= ::bc:aviil: weight, than Appearance flews. These s~he:mes are ~limes called. demerit (irocedmes (,.. Section &-3_3). 10 8,n,ral;-<he distribution .of L i. not Peisscn unless all 0," 1 in eqgatiOl1 3-16; that is" sUIllG of i.IJde,pende11t Pois.scn random variables ere Poisson dis[QbU~, but mere geners1linear co:mbieatio.ns. w-e run.

3·2 POINT 1!STIMATION Of PROCESS PARAMETERS

A _ vatiohle .. cllaxacmi7.ed or ilo.scribed by i ta probability disIribIltioo. This <!ism· butioo is de=ibed by ia P"'"""ters. For ",""'ple,<he moan Il and VIlli""", d' of th.o nor- 0Ia! distribution (oquari0tl2.21) are ilS parameterS, wll<!eu ;Us dIop_a oCmoPei,..,. dlStl:ibution (equation 2·15)_ 10 _oal quality """",,I, tb£ probabillty distribulion is,""d to (Ir:s;~ribe or model some qu;ility cl.:Iaz1cled.slic. such es a cril:ical dimensiOn af a p-oduct or !he !ncti.n <ldeoti ve of !he manuf.clll1inll pmceos. The>dore, we ... inlei:_ in making

[

infe.rem:es Elbout the pall.Ut(.erl:l'S of probability dimibUti-ons_ Since. ~ panunelm ate &en& ually unkr\olJIn. we require prccerl~ to estimate them from ~1e dam,

W~ may define an ~$timator of an unknown parameter. as a sti4mc that cotTesponds to the _teJ:. A porticolar • .",.rical val"" of an estimator; cnml',*~ from semple dam, I.< coUkd an «!stimale. A point estimator i.s ill sr.a.tisti~ rbo.t produ~~ ~ singl~ numerical valo~ lIS Ihe esdmate ofllle unl:nDwD p.,.",el&. Th illus"",,,. cnn.id<>-Ihe "'~Olll ..... bl ... will> ]l<Obabllity <Il>triburiOllj(x) shown in fiB. 3-1 00 p. gao SuP!">" thot lb. mean Jl and varience a' of this distribution tire both unknown. If. random sample of n ohservations is taken, then the samp1e mean x and sample variance r an:\ polcr estimators of the popel.lI"" ""an /J and population .arianc< a'. respectively, Sri~ that this <Iistrih<ltiDn represent! • process producing bearings and Ihe random variablo x is tbe inside dian>. etet. We want 10 C1btain point euimateS of I:ht: lean Mrl vadenee of Ib.e icJid~ diameter of bootirlS' pro<l",:od by thi. 1"0, .... We could m_ rh. insidO diamokr. of • rondom sample of n ~ 20 bearings ("y). Then Ihe sample mean and .lmple VBrlJmce could be coml"'''<I. If!llio yield' 'i - 1.4~S and i' - 0.001. !ben the point e.""'at< of /J is P. ~ i - U95 and !he po;"t estimate of a' ;,.;.' -i' ~ 0.001. Recall th .. 1he ..... symbol is used m <!coOl< an e!dmme of D. panmc:ter.

The mean and cenenee of. di.tribotion are !lOt necessarily rh. poJ;amO!el'S of !be distribution. For example. the parameter of the Poisson distlibutio.n is A. while its mean and varian"" are fl ~ .1. and a' - A (b.o,h III, mean OM vm= ore A), .. d the p .. ameters of the binomial dlstribution are n and P. wbile it! mean and variaru:<: are Il ~ np and '" _ np(1 - pl. re'pectively. we may <how thar a good poiIlleotimalor of Ihe plIrollOl<r 1 of • Poioson di,tribuWm Is

and the! • good pom' es dmator 0; lIle p_ter p of. binomial dl.<trlbmfon i< p=.!.tXr~f

";_1

for fixed n. In the hlnotni.al distribiltioo the oboorwli.,.,. in the rsodem BiIIlPlo {_'" arc: ~hheJ 1 or O. com:sponding to "success" Emd "failure," r=;pectively_

A mnnber ot importa.nt properues are required of g!lOd paml esUOJl.tOB. Th'D of the !IIO.!I imporumt of 111 ... P"'I'enie.! ore the following,

1. The pOint .stim""" oh¢Uld be unbiased. Tha, 1". lIle expected value of the point e..ui.maIOr mould be dJ.e piUmDeter being estimated,

l. The point e.scimator s:hould have miDbnmn vanaDH. Ally point estimatOr is: 8. random variable. Thus, a mlnimnm vari.ance point ~miiltof :mould beve 8. variance. mat 'is maIler than the varilU1~ of any crtber point estimator of that parameter_

The samplf mean and variance x and ? are unbiased esti:rnatms of me popu.JtJMn mean and variance /J .. d a'. respectively. That 1>.

E(l')~/J and e(i']-<t'

"'bom tho openotor E I" simply the expected value 01'''''''' .• ,horth.ml W1rj of writing the process of finding the mean of. r an dom variabl"- (So. the suppl eee nllll motorial (or this t:hapter ferr more inCQll!laticlIl about mathematical expectation_>

_1

..

The sample standerd dc.viilliou s is not an unbiased estimator of lilt; population standard d.viation <to It can be ,hown lIlat

~·17)

Appendix Thole VI glves val .... of., for sampl, ..... 2 s n" 25. W, """ ob",", an unbi:8,St;d estimlce of 1M scandard deviation from

(3.jS)

In many Bpplica.tioJ:lS of .statisdc.s to C(UBllty.-.enginte:rins: proble1l1S" it is con"Yeuienl to t.$ti~ m~ the standard d&w.i.arion by the ranle method. Let -ei. -'"1' •••• _'rill be Il random!ampJe of n observations from a noma! rustrlbuticn wilb mum Jl and variance a'l_ The range of th~:Sl!l.mplais

(3-1~)

Th.nt 1., !he range I< i. simply !be dUf"'''t:e betw_ !be I.<rSOS' .. d omalle<t sample cbaervatio",. Tho random variable W = RI<t I.< called tho !'OID.Ii ve rDDCe. The _ti"" of W bas been well s11ldied. The mean of W i •• constant d; lb .. dtl""'l' on the ~ of the .. mple. TIm is, E(M ~ d,,- Thord_. an unblesed .. tim,,,,, of the sranuard devi_tion a of a ncrmaJ <futribOtion 1,

(3·20)

V.IIre. of d. for '1IIIlp1. ,i:re. 2 " n $ 25 ere giveo ;" Appendbt Thb], VI.

u.sing the. range to estitnate a dare! from tbe earllest days of st.a.ti.sti.cal quality control, and it """ pC!">1.<r beeeuse it is very simple '" caloulOle. With _ cah:ulot"'" and c.omputei'S, Otis isn't a major conalderadon today. Ge.ne.ral.l.YI the IjqLl~drl!lI.k: e.stim.at.or" based on • is preferuble, lrowever.lf tho ".mplo ,ite n is roIatively small. the ""',. method actUally warla very well. The relative effu:ien<}> of Ihe range method comp"",d to s is mown bere for various aamp!.e !ilzes:

---.-.----------~--~========~~---- .......... ------------------~-----~~======

10

U](JO 0,991 0,97) 0,9" 0,9>0 0,660

For mod.,.., vM>e< of n-Il.Y, • ~ 10-!he range loses dficlenoy '''P1dly. OS It jgnores all of me illformmd.on in the sample betwel:n the extremcJ. Hcwevet:, for: sm.till sm.:pl.e sius.. y. n S 6-it wmb V<IY wen aruI is entirely .. em"",}" We will us. the rang. modlod to estimate the: standard deviation for certain types of control eha.ns in Oapcer 5, The supplep'ental text QUl.teriaJ contains IIJI'J~ information about llsmg rile range to aiitimate. variabiti.ty, Also see W_.u and Montgcmay (2000-01).

3.3 STATISTICA1. INFERENCE FOR A SINGLE SAMPLE

Th. tecilnlqtJ .. ofstmiStlcal ioferimCe OM be ciwifiodintll two _~: p...-.r .. tfmation >rid bypotIJ.sJ. testIn;. weheve .lready bcidly introdu<'d the g"".,.J ill en of polot .. tIm.l1on of process plll6lllO,er s,

A sta.ti5:tif8l hypothesis is ill. .lIUl.temerlt abOUt die. values of the parame~ of a probability dlatributicn. Foe ,nmpl,. supp"", we think th,t Ill' me&n inside mllID<ter ofa bear.ing is 1.500 in. We mBy expr~s this I!.talE;me:nt in a formal m:ma.er &S

B,: p~l.500 HI: p~1S00

(3·21)

Th, ""'''''''l'' Bo: 1'- 1.300 in <qu'tion 3-21 i. ca1Jed!he null hypothesis, ondB,: 1'''" 1.500 is caljed tho all.mall •• hypoo."u. Tn our ex ample. HI specifies values of lIle mean diJ!moter!bat"'" .illler ~er til .. 1.500 or Ie .. Ihan 1.500. and is called .tw<>sided alternat!ve bypotbesis. Depending on the problem. various one-sided alternati. v e byPOth esee may b •• _';ate.

HyPOtbesis testing procedures are quire n..tuJ in many types of statistical quality. central problems. Tb<y also fOJIll dle basi. for most of the <tatistical process-oootroireobIIlque. to be described in Parts Il and m ()f tlili lexIbook. M importllnt port of any bJ'l'O!be'" te.ting problem is determining tho parameter veju ea specified in dle eun and a1tem!tl:v~ hypo'lbe.!ie.s. Genen.lly, 'this.Ls done in one. of Wee. 'Ways. First, the vafnee may """I, from l'05t evidence or knowledg .. This hoppens Ii"'luen~y in statiotioal quality 0001' 1M1. whal: W~ U$~ past inform.aticn to specif;' values fer .0 parameter com:s.pondiDa to a stare of control, and !ben peti<>d.i,ally !W tI>e bypelll,sl. dlat tho parameter value 0" no' changed, Second, !he vaiues ",ay !<SUIt IrmD _ ,""cry or I!lOd<I of tile precess. RnaUY. ilia valul::5 ~O$~.n for '!he p8!'1Dl:l.CW" may be the result of iIXIlltrl5Crual or d~j:gn .specitica.u""'. a 'i.tllatioo .. at oc<:ur' m.q"""tly. SllI~'ticol hyPOtbuts testing procedures may be used to r.bed th~ cneformlty of ~ proc.eu parametl:rS to I.b.t:ir s:pecme:d values, OT to asmt in modifying Ihe prm:es~ until. the desired vaJue& are obtairwi

Th least a hypothes:is., we rakt: it nndcm s:ampJe from the population under srud,)" t;OID'pure an Rppmp:iate te;t 5tatistl~1 and dum. either Ieject or fail to n=.jcct till:. uull hypcdJesis

~.'

I

B .. Tho se of vohl .. of lIle tesI lUli.sli<: leMing to rejectioo of B, is called !he critical ~on or reJl!<lion r .... COl !he rest.

.1Wo Idnd, of .""'" ",ay be committed When testing byPOtho,es. IT the null hypoth esis is tej~ct.ed when i;t is tnle., then a l}'pe I -tUOI h&l occurred, If ~ n_uU bypodlesiB. is not rejected wh~n it is h1.!=. lh.en a typl:! IT error has; been mad.e:. The probabilities of these. two rypes of errors I!re Ile['loted as

,rt- P{type Lerree] ~ P{reject H,I)l", js true).

'P;"P[typ< D error] = P[r.;; ;;;rejett BolHoi; fRlre) SomeIiInes it is In.ore COlWwent to 1f,IOtk with the p(lwer of lbe «:st, where

Pcwer e 1 -p= P[ieject H,IH, is false]

Thus. tile power is !he probability of CO ""OIly ",jeering Fl,. Tn quallty ccnrrcl work. a is ,0""';_ caUed!he producer', rtsk, because rt denotes tile probabitity that.. gClCI<I klt wiD be «.I"'ted. Or tile proba~ility that • process producing a<""ptabl< vol uee of. partic. uIar quallty obllllCrerilrl, will be rejected ... perl'tl<ming _torily. In addition. P is somet:imas called the consumer's mk, becau:!i~ il.Iie.OOUi:!i the pItlhl.bility of accepting a lor of poor qualiry. or allowing .. prcx:e3s that is operating In an un.'UltiSflCrory ma:nncr rela.rlve to :tOtpe qualitY .cbuac:u:ristic. to continue ill opetIltion:

Tho general proc,dur, in hypoth,sis resting is to specify a value of Ill. probability of type I mor a. end tIlOJl to d es ; gn • Ie" prcced we ,. tI'" a ""all value of the prob.bllity of type D mor p is obminod. Thus. we 'Peak of directly C<l!ItroUing or t:hoo.lng the a rlsk. The. prisk i:!i I!!:~"nemlly a function ef:!iample site. and is oontroIleil :indired:J.y. The l.uj:er is the 'omplo .m('l ",ed In the tes~ the ,mailer is \h" P dsk.

1ll1llis secucn w~ will revi~ byPOtbl:lsi5: tt::stiIlR proceduhs when iii slZlEle simple of n. obrerv.otion.9i h8s been taken from "me process. We ~ also show how Ihe lnfommrion .bout tile values of tho process pMomet ... '"01 is ill this semple can be "'P"""'" ia '""'" of an inffirVlil estimate called a confidence interval. In S~tion 3-4 we will consider staIisrlcll inferenc:e for tWO sampJe,s from two pos:!i1bly difi'enmt prQl:t:sse5.

3-3.1 Inf~e on the Mean of a Populanon, Variance Known

Hypath~5 Testing

SuppQse 'that x is a random variable with unknown mean fJ. and known 'Variance al. We. wish to t .... tho hyPO .... is thot the mean is "",Ill ro a.tanthrd _'-"Y. "" Th. hypotb~sjs may be f~ally .stated as

H.: I-'-Ilo 'B,: 1l'~·Ilo

Tha prccedcre for testing this hypothesiS is to ta..kc:: i1 raaecm 5:Bm.ple of n ob:st:J"'r.ltiOllili en the raedom 'J11.fiabJe. ."'t, .compute the teSt Statistic

(3-23)

---~----~==========---- .. ----------------~-~. ~.~.~-

. ---.

I. __

and rej.o' Ho if I Zo I ,. 2"" wber< Z"" is !he uppe an. ~Olge poim of m. Slandord normal distribution.

We may give an inruitive jLlBtilicalion of thi.G t=&t procedure. FreID the ceneet Umit tbe~

orem, we:, know that me sample mean i is disttibUtt:d applcxim1tely N(p.. ~ln). Now if Ho: Jl ~ !la is cue, then m. lost stati.rio Zo is distributed 'pp'mdmately N(O, 1); C""' e'l"e"tly, we.....,..w ",,[,<cr 100(1- a)% of tho valu" of z., .0 flill between '-ZoJ, and z;.". A somple producio~ • value of Zo outside of the« Iirnl'" w0tl1d be unusual if m. null hypotheSis were true aruI i. evideooe thCJ Ho: 11 = Jla mould b e .ejected. NOll' thCJ "is the pro_ilit)' of typ< I mo' for <h. test, aruI the intervals (Zall' -l and (-. -Z",,) form tho

critical. r.e~on for the. I~L

In some sj,tllaUOJt!lj we mil)' wUb to ~r H(J only if the lNe mean ia Wier IIl.M J.4 Thus, tho on e-s lded altemalive hypo_is is HI: 11" Jla. and we woulll rei,et Ho: 11 = Jla only if Z. ,. z.,.lf rejection Is desired only when 11 <!la. then the AI_alive hypotheSis is HI: II -c JJo, and we rejetl H. only if z., <: -Z",

EXAMPLE 3·1 •••.•••••..•••••..•••••.•.•.•..• " .

The respo"'" time of. distributed ~pu"" system is an impollllnt quall!)' olI>t8oteristio. The sysleal manager \\r.ant& to know whether the mean response tim" ro a .specific type cf command ex, ee d, 15 millise::. From previou.o expedeoce, be knows thl\' tho standerd deYiation of respons;e lime is 8 rnillisec. Th~ appropriate bypewe.ses ere

H.; 1'-75 H,' 1»15

The cCltlIDand is exeClllCd 25 limes and th~ response time for eaeh trial is recorded. We assume tbaI: Iht:s~ obs~arion!'; can be considered as a random sampk of the response. times. The .sample .average m5PpoDSt: tifm:; is i .. 79.25 millisec. The value of the rest sl!" tigicis

If W' specify. type I omx of ,,- 0.05, the. from Ap~1x ThbJo II we fiod z,. - lo", ~ 1.645. Thcrefo~ we. rejectHo; J.t. i5 and ccnc:l11de dIat the mean resptJll~ lime exceeds

75 milli,<o •

................................................................. H ••••••••• ············,·········· ....

Coufideac.e Inmrval.!i

lis! intO<'loJ es _ of • porametCrls tho intCJVAl b&w= twc ... tistios tba.lncIud es tho

true 111\'" of the paramot<, with some prOIlllhilit~. 1'0< """"pie. to ecnstrucr en i.terV1I1 est:im.tttor of thl: me.M p.. "W~ must find ["NO stQrist:ics- L and U .such that.

Th~ res.ulrlng interv:Bl

._-_j

whelre L. ilie.lower confidence bound . Is choseo $0 thai

P[L~II}-I-"

A Ollo-.ide<l upper 100(1- ~ confidenc, hoond 0. I' would b.

I's.U

w.bl:te U, me upper co.nfid.enc.E: bound. is clJoS~['L $0 I:hat p{I':W}~l-a

(3·26)

(J·21)

(3·28)

, I

~--------------~--~

(3-29)

where ZoIl;_' '!'7 ~, en tage point of !he MO, 1) distribution suoh tba,P(.;' Z"') ~ f1/2, or;:e ~tX.LO dis<nlmted approximooely ~ ri'-m) '78w,,, afthe distribotio~ of x, p 1<OIlirnit tbeor.m. Cceseq ... rly. equaaon 1·29 IS on approximat' IOO{l - <l)% amfiden£' ",terwl for Jl. regordk •• of the dl.mbutioo of:< If x ;, distrthut,d N(JI, ri'-) then .qumion 3·29 is an ouct 100(1 - C» .. oonfide!lcelnt<r>aL F\l11h.rmore, • 100(1 - C»,; _, canfiOollCo bound on II is

(3·24)

-

wher .... 100(1 - a)'{"lower confidence bound on J1 is'

(3·31)

EXAMPLE J.2 ..

Roconddu the computer response time .scenario from Example, 3--1. Since ~ !II 79 n23 millisec, we know !:hit ~ rl:BSOnEibIe: point estima1e of the Olean respcnse lime i!I A - x ;;;; 79,25 rniJUseo, We can also find .100(1 - a)'{, COnfi<kno. int.".,...] fur I'- SUPPO" • 95% two-lided confidence: interval is Specified. 'Then from equation 3--29 we can conpete

. 8 g

79.2S - L96~ s 11 S 79,25 "'1.96~

76.114" I' ,SS23S6

Another W$,Y f:O express this result lS: that our estimate cf mean response time is 19.25 millisec ± 3, 136 <nllli",c with 95% ooofi<leooe.

Notice that the conj';<kn", illlet"alin Ex""",I. ;-2 does n", include the ~AIlle p~ is, 1'lIrthenn<>t<>. in E>c.",p1e 3·1 the bypothesi< Ho' J1 ~ 7S w .. rejected" a ~ n.05. This i. not :I coincidence:. In general, the test of sl gllificaDl:e for a p~mr at lc.v~l of signifi~ eenee willleod In ",j ec ~on of fI, if. and ooly if. the parameter value specific in H, is net included in the 100(1 - 0:)% oonll<lenee inrerval,

3.3.2 Tbe Use of P-Values fer Hypothem. Testing

The trlliitional woy '" repen the resul" of a hypcthe.s:i. test iI to steee !luil the null hypothesis was or was not rejecte.d at a specified a-value. or level (If sl;nifiean.ee. For ex.unple,. In the prt:viom: computeI' respense time prahl~t we: can say mat Hri-}J;:: 75 was Iejected ot the 0.05 level of ';gnificonce.lbl, sretement of oOllOlusions is .ft!,n inadoquote, bee""", it givc.s Ihe Mmlys~ DO idea IUXlIll: wbcthe:r thl: computet1 value of lhe lei! stuisric was just barely in the rejection region or ..,,;ry far into this ,*on. Funhermore, stAling the results this way Imposes the predefined J~vcJ of s.igni.fiC&Il.Ce. em clbet users of me information. This approe.l:b may be urn lltisfactory~ II SODl.e dectslcn mak:er.ll might be unr:onlforttLhl~ with ih ri,l<.s implied by "., O.ns.

To "void these difficlJlties tbeP·YaJue approach has been adapred w!dt:ly in preetice.

The p ••• "" ~ the J?<Obabilliy that the test .l2Ii.otic will take on • value !lui! is et le .. , as

~ ~

I

I

I

!

1

extreme as the observed value of the statistic when the ouD hypomesls Ii" Is true, 11m ... P~~!kCODV~S mucb infarmatic:n :Bbout the weight of md~e againlit H (). And sc R deei&.ion maker can draw ;! co~cluSjon.ai a,ny:ipecified -le;~~·of &ignifiwck 'We -~. giV~"a

famaJ definition ofa P·va1ne. .

~

n,p·vaIue i. tbJ: ,.,alI.., lovel of oIrail!'onee th .. wcwd I<IIrl ro rejection of the null hypothe<i' flo,

I'is ",.romary '" call. !he "'" s .. tiotic (end !he d8l8j significant wheo the nuU hypoth..,;, flo iI rejected; _CIt. W< ... y think of the p.\OIIu, as the .malloS! level "" wblob the data ore .iguifioant. Once the i-value is _. !lie <lee;';o. maker <ill det<mlino fOl lIiol· se If or h."olf how <lgniftoant the <1,,,, are without the data analy st formolly iin.."ing • preselected level of ,igoific&Il«.

For ~ nocmal di$1Jiblltion msts disoor.sed above. it is relBJivezy easy to r:ampute dle P·value. If '" is the COtllputed val,," of the "''' etetienc, the" the J<.valuels

{*-c!>Iz"u foratw'Hailed"",: li., 11;110 H,: Il"J1o

p; 1-<1>(z,,) fcr an upper-talled teat; li,: 11;110 fI,: 1'''110

<I>(z,,) for a lewer-talled lUj: H.: I' -110 H,: 11 -c 110

Here, C!>(Z) is tho $_ "onnal ottmulativo dittrllnniOll funo~on tIeJlned in a..poe, 2. To i1lUs:tnL~C.~, r:~ the computer response time problem in Example 3-1. The .c:om· puted value of the rest !iratislic is: ~ * 2.56 lind swe the alternative hypothesis. is ~. tailed, the p-varu. is

p ~ 1- <1>(2.66) ~ 0.0039

Thus, Ho'''~ 75 would b. ",,;.clnd at any !~e1 ofsigniftcance a:> P=O.0039. For examplo, fI, would be rejected if a ~ om, but it would not b. rejected if a = U.oo 1.

It is not alwaY:i: eas)' to compute: the c=xacl.P~Ya111e. for I!I test, Bowever, most modcnl <amputee progrlllllS for ".tistioal analysis report P·"aloes. and the]' <:an be obtained uaJng ,oInC hand-bold calcnl"""., II is aI", pos",ble In use the statistical "'bIos in the ApPendix to appttlx.iml!l~"the P-value in some C:3~ .•

3·3.3 Inference 00 the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

H~,T •• tin;

Suppose tha.t x i:s a normal randDID. variable with unknown mean J1 and ul'lk:n.own vari.anc:e OJ', We wish to "'st the hyp_, that the me en e qual •• ,tandard valu.1'!> thot is,

Ho: Il~J1o H,: 11-"11.

(3-32)

L

-

·_ .. 22 _

L. __

L_

NOlt: that this problem b: similar m diat of Section 3-3.il except; that now the variance is unknown. B~!llR: the. vlrlan~ is unknown, we mUU make the additionall'Wllmptian lhat tho ,."dzllll "mobl. is nomull~ di<tribute~. Tho IlOttIllIlity essumptlcn 1. needed 10 for" lIIlIIly develop tho statis';"al test, l:ut mod"",," departures from Ollanali.ty wjJJ not .eriously alf~ "'. results ..

A • .,. 1, "nkn""",. It may b ... lim.ted by i', If .. e re place or In eqeeticn ,·23 by s, we have tbe tnt statUtic

(3.33)

The nun bypotbesi. H", 11- J1<I will be '*"<od If I(roll > ....... _1. wbeee ''''''_1 de~ !he upper ofl p,n:en"go point of the , di<ttibolion with " - 1 degrees of freedom, The criticlll regions fm Ihe cl:lwided alternative hypotheses era ElS follows: if Hl: J.l.1 ~)J{J1 reject HD if ro > tcr.,H _ L. and if HI; Ji.1 < J.lo, reject Ho if to < ....,.II,II-l. One could also cym:pute tile. P·Y3Iue for .III r-test, Mo:!it computer software [?Ilckages: repcn tht: 'p·vaJue along with me. computed value of 10-

EXAMPLE 3.3 .

Rubber eM be aMed to .a.!ipbaU [Q reduce road noise when tbe. !D8reriil is used ItS pave.-mon t, Thbl. 3-1 shows the stabilized vu.:osity (oP) of 15 'JIOclmon1 of asphalt paving m41terial. To be suitabl!:i for the wended Jli!.vement appli~atiDn, the mean stabiliud vi~ ""it)' oboold be equal to nOlI. S"ppo.elba! we will to test <hi< hypolh<sis using '" ~ O,OS, Baaed on experience we are wtll.iI:lg tc initinDy Il.:!'i&umc that stAbilized viloosity is .<IIDIlIlly di.tribl>Ied. The appropria!l! h)'pOtl1es es are

H.: u= 3200 H,: 11"'3200

The "omple ""'an and sample standard devl.tion oro

, 1" 4E,lo1

.'I--y.., ~--g3210,73

IS '.1 15

IIrId dlete.st.s(atisti.c: is

, .!.:.i!g, _ 3210,73 - 3200 • 0,35

• 4"" m.ol/.M

Tthl.,., 5mb;llwl """colly 01 Rnbbo_ A.plmh· .

!O II 12 tl 14 1;

nss 3lL4 llll 31., 3093 5466 115l 2979 318'2 3277 nss 3332 3204 ,20.0. 3170

•• •• ••

- !g ! !§

l ao

"" '0

2'!1'.50 ;:JOSO 3J.!.c 3250 3JSO 3450 Sla~rad"liCQd:~

Fii'lTl!3.S N.orm.al~~L)'''''[)lm'lb!lu.abUh.lld w~~liyd8l1l1.

,

.l

Since the I:alculeted value of !be. test nati:stii:: does not exceed rD.~, 14 - 2.145 Of -taAJU.14:;;;: -2.145, we cannot rt;jt~ me null bypothesi.s. Thmfute. l:here is IXI s~ng.cv1- dence to conctude dJat the mean stabilized visl:ofriry is different £rem 3.200 cPo

'The B55U.mption of ROrUl.aJ.ity fm the rted GIn be checked by .constructing a normal proh,hility plot of tile .",blU.ed ",,,,"sit)' da ... FiallI' ;>.5 "'ows the 1l«01Al proIlohillt)' plot. Bec;W8e the abserviJaoollie along the sttaight line. there is no problem with the aortDlIlity .. ,umplion.

Millitllb can oonctuct the one·s:a.mpl.e twte:st. The. output from this software package is. showIl in tho foUowiog mspl'y:

Variable Example 3-3

One-Sample "' E.xo,"p], 3·3

Tast of mu m 3200 vs mu not ~ 3200

Variable Example 3-3

N Mean

IS 3210.7

95.0% CI (3145,6. 327,.9)

StOev 117.6

T 0.35

SE Mean 30.4

P 0.729

Notice til .. Minitab eceepuea botll1l\o tes rs tatlstic and a 9S~ ooclidence inltrV\ll fur 11\0 :mean 3t:nbilized vlsccsiry, We. will live the aJonfideo~ intet\'i!l fannum bclow; bo'w'e.ver, recalling the disl:lol.Ssion about the connection between hypcthe5:is tests and con5~nce lntervals at the. condmiian of Example. 3-3, we observe that because the 95% confidence

-

--..:.._------------------------"----=c .. . _

interval illd1l.de!i the value 3.200, ~ 'L\'Ould be lInable to t.eject the null hypotbl:Sis Bo' f'~ 3200. NolO Ih.t Mill!tBb oho "poru: • f·vel"" 'e< !he ~'o".

Ccnillde.nce Iutereal em the ~tn. M iI Normal Di$trlbutiM

with V2jnim:e U:aknown

S'llP{lOS8. thlllt.l: LSi a ncnnal rmCiolD. \llriabl~ wiTh l.I.1llttJown mean!! and unknown ~aru::1;: cl. From a random sample of jII ~~aIion:s 'thI:: $WI:lple :glean .J: end sample van~i:e ;art; (:~rnputed. 'I'lle.o. a 100(1 - 12)% lWo-slded OCllfIr::lence in~ on the true mean lSi

wiler. I..." _, denotes !he P"=lOg< point of till; , <liwibu,;on with" - 1 dogr= of free"doll! <udl thatf{' __ ," '''''.-1) ~ Ctfl. Tho """"sponding upper end lower 100(1- ,,)'11> ~DnfideDce bounds are.

(3·3~)

(3-36)

E.XAMPLf. ).4 .

Reconsider !he otabifue<l viscosity do'. "om 'Example]-3. UsinS equation '1-34, we can Dnd I! 95'% con'fi,dl:f.I~ int~al on th.e me:IIIn $t~biJiujj 'Yl$oo5iity as: [oHows::

, ,

'<-'"".".1-::r;;:"1J.~ 1+r0{l.~1-::r;

ll"! 61 117.61

3210,73-2,145 ,JIT ;;1J.';'321O.73+:l145"""J!S

314559 s IJ.';: 32'7l_a7

Anotber wa.y to ex~tess tlDs result is that OUT ~s:tinlatt:. of Ihe m~ stabilized visco~ty is: 3210.73 ± - ~5_14' Of' 'With 95% ccefieeeee, This O<>nfj~ int''''''ol was reported by Mini(ob in tho box "" pogo 103.

Th~ m:UII.l:f:<III:i:uru may onlJ be. concerned abour .na'biliu:d 'Viscosity ".alJ.le.!i lha~ :m; k10 lOW' uti cDU!ieqll~rl.'r may be teeeested in It olle,..,s1ded conflrJe.ru:e bound. The 9'5~ lower ronfidence bound on me2n stahHi.;ed VisOlsity.: is found from equation _ 3-36, G:S.iJ'Jg '0,0>," ~ J:l6l as

!

,

I-

I

i

1

,I

~

,

j

or

~ ... O+U.+o ••• r ••••••• ~ •••• ~ •• U.U ... +I ...... u ..•.......• ~.~.~ ..• '~. 'U+B< ... +.+< ••••• ~ •••••••• ~.~ •.•

3.3.4 Inference on lb. Vo;rionce _of a Normal ,?lstl;OutW,n Hyp,th .. \i· n,'inl:

We new review Irypo'tbe:sis resting on the vati.ant:e of it normal disll'ibt!ltio,n. Wb.~reas tests on means ~ re1a~v~)' insen5itive. to the nc.rmality i!lS5'ilmption. tl!t.St prccedcres for wei.

am:es BreMt_ .

Suppose we wish to test the hypothesLS that ~ varian2~ ar'~ &nit1l d.i!iitril:lij·tion equals 0 constant ...... y. ~. The ")/po""'", ere

Hc~ (11 ~(f~ HI: al;:O"l

(3-3'1)

x~ .. In·:''::.!);fl Co

0-38)

where. sl is the s.ample variance .cotnputed from a random .salllpl~ 00 Pl observations. ~ null hypoth~sil) is ~jec:~ if xt ~ .r.M2,11- I or if %~ -c rl_ I!I".!,,.II _ 11 wh~ .i~)1 _ I ;md %1- ...... _, "'" <be upper Ctfl Md lower 1 - (an) "''''"''tag< points of 1M ,0;."1""" distribution with iI'1 - I degrees of freedom. If n oue-stded :a,lur.native is sp~t::ified---S£ly. HI: rT < "r th.on ~ wookl rejo", if rl -c .rl-'~ ::]. For tho 0"'" _·~<I<d al_.ti.o Hf ~::. "'.[]a ~Jet'{if.rl-;=;>ii_a,n_l.

Th.i.!i teSt is very us:dut in many Quality-impnNemc:nt III£plicBtions. Far exemple, con,idor • ,J(IOlla! randee vuiabl. with m= IJ. Mid vaetaeoe or'.1t .,., is los, tlw\ cr <'1"01 to '0Dl< velo,....'II}'. ".~ tho oanu:ol ""_nt .ariability of tho proce," will be well within the design requtreml:03'lts. and, conse.quently. lIilmo:U !TI of the PIOdu~on will conr"", '" 'pOOiJIootiOll8. ~.It"" """,,<Is era, Ihon!he noturol vuiabiliry in tbe process

-

-.;,';"

i __

will ",ce'" the ,pcdfica1ion limilB, resulting in • hlgb p"""",t,!;, of """"oofaming production or ''faIloul'' III other wcrcs, pro""", capabllltylo directly teI.."d to precess vanabllUy. Equ.tions 3-37 oru:I 3-38 may be 0"'" to moly", ..000' other similar ,illlations. and os we will , ee ",b'"'Jll"lltly, thoy fo<m !he b .. is for • mooltOODIl or control procedure for _. variability.

Conficl~~ Interval GIl the Vam.nce of a. Notmel Distribution

SuppCI!e lb.at x i5P a .noonal random variable with unknown mean j.t and uakncwu varience al. L~ !be sample variance i be I:ompured from a random :tampJe of ~ abservsdons.

Then a 100(1 - <>j'l!> 1W<>o.1ded coofidimce ,""",,11 on 1bo VonlUlCO is .

(n-l)s' 2 ("-I).'

:1 Sa $-,--

%17(2.n-1 X1-4r./1."-1

(3-39)

wbere %~~ -I denotes dle peccenrage point of dle cbi-squaTC! distribution S\le;h 'tbLU Ptrl-l 2. .ro:n.,n.-l) - aI2. A colltitknce ir1tervAl m the. standard devintien can be found by Wing tho ........ to'" throughout In equarfoa 3·39.

U eae-slded coofid= bound! are desired, !hoy may be obillined from "'luation 3-39 by usll\g only !be uppu (or low •• -) limit' wl!h !be prnbo.bilit}' level lncre .... d froD> fIi2 (Q a. Thal is, !be uppet and lower 100(1 - <>j'l!> coofi<l<nc< boond. III<

oospeeIively.

we may use the stllbil..iu:d viscosity data from Example. 3·'] to dem.onsttate me oompu,.tion of. 95% ("Y) coofide.c< Interval on "'.Not. th.t for !he dntll In Table 3-1. we have , _ 117.61 and ;. _ !~,a32.11. From Appenclix Tltble III, ",. :find that

.... - - .....

~

! I i t i

,-

t"",-" t. - 26.12 and t ... " ... = 5.63. Therefore, from "'lll,nOJl 3-39 .... find 11>0 95% two, <ldetl",OllIlde."" 1."",,01 on <r' as

(14)13,8.32.11:s 11'" (14)13,832.l1

26,12 H3

wllicb redecea 10 7413.&4"".,;; 34396.01. The <nofidence intervlll on !he .tanclard <levi- 1Iiticn is

8o,IOS 11:S185.46

3-3.5 Inference on a Population Prcpordne

Hypoth .. " Tesrin;

Suppose we wiab to test !he hypo .... is tba! the ptoportion p of. popIllotion "'lual.! • 'IOn· detd value_y. Po- Tho 1m we will de.cob. is based on !he .ormlll·iPpmxlmation to !he b4:i.0mial. Jj' .$ random sample of 71 items Is tmn frOID lba population and.l': items in th~ san'lpk belong to the class 8:!isocinted wilh p. then to test

So: pll'po

H,: p"'Po

(3·42)

(3·4-3)

Tho nllll bypotbosi.< no' P - Po I. rejec.ed it 1z.,1 ;> z"". The one·sided allml.dve hypotho= are ~"lOd similarly.

EXAMPLE 3-5 , n' ,: ..

A found<y pIndu= _1 ""linK! used in automobile manufaoturiDg. We wish to test !be bypClme.sis th.ar Ihe f'rac1ion coofor:ming OJ fallolll from this process is 10% . .In l!Il'andom slitmp1e of 250 castinlll, 41 were found to be. nonOOllfarmins" To test

H.: p_o.! Hi: p"O.1

UsiDg,,~ 0.05 wefiltdZnml-1.96, and "',more H.: p'~ 0.1;" rej,ot<>i (1IIe p·voJue here is p ~ O.IKHIl8). Th.oI is. tbo prece .. fnction noncOnfonnlng or fallout i. pot <qrIal '" 10'l0.

.............• ~ ~ ••••• +1" •••••• + u •••• +.+ ••.. ~ •• + + .

Ccn!lden,u InI~iiII]$ (In III Pc:pulation P!'Opo:rtiC1f.L

It ill fn:quently n,,""'ary 10 «,"<!roC' 100(1 - a)'lO ,onfitlence in terv oJs (:II n populotion proportl¢J> p. This parameter fn:qu .. ~y corresponds 10 a 101 or process fiu;tion non""", forming. Now p is only one of rha pa"."",.", of a binomW dj,trilnnioo. and we .molly assum~ that the othll" binomial PlriIIIle'[a n is knoWn. If !! random S.EIIllple (If )II obwvntions !rom till> population ha, been w..n. and x "noneonfomlillg" cbservetlons h.ve been fOllIlll in <his ,,,,,,,,1<. 1IIen 1IIe unbiased poin' es <imalOr of p is P - xIn.

Theee are :several 8pprOB~e:s to cOI1stJllCtinl the confidenc:e intel"W1 on p. If 11 ii large and p :. 0.1 (say). 1IIe01ll0..,<mlIl .pproximllli¢!> to tbe binomial can be DS<d. ""ulllng in Ill, 100(1 - d)-. confid<l1o, in""",!:

If jl is smejl, then lhf, bi:nomial distdwtlll1l should be u51:d to esmbtish the r:r:mfidenu in!m'tlli <HI po If n is large \:<It P is .mill tben !he Powon .pprorim.tion 'Q me binomial is usdol in constructioK eeefideaee intervals. 5J;;am.p1es of these latter twe procedures am given by puneen (1986).

EXAWL£ 3-6 " .

In • random ,""'pie of SO eutcmotive c:nnkshaft bearings. 13 of till> bcorl<\gs MIlo • SU1'face finish that is roUGher man the spt:cifications will allow. 'The pDint e.stilnate of tbe frat-

~ Don nonccnfumting ED the process is

p-~-O.1S7S 80

AlliSL1mmg mal the tLO:tm:J..l appmximati.OlllO Ill:. binomial. is Bppropriae. a 95~ confld.ence int:erYaJ. on tbe ~ fr.;:u:don no.ncollfonning is found from Ol'illltion 3-44 as

0.1875(0.&125) ~ p' 0.1°15 ~ 1.96 0.1815(0.8125)

0.1875-1.96 80 ~ ~ Q ~ . 80

whicb reduces [0

0.1020;;; p S Q.2'730

•••••• _ ••• ~ ••.•••.•••• ~ H .

n-.

,

I

I

'1

! 1

~

j

j

, 'j

i

!

3.3.6 The Probability of TyPe 11 Error and Sample SI.<e O""Wons

r fu:~th;~th,;,u;~..;g.iiuatlons. i;·i..-~~n~'o'd~ tJio 'probaliilltj' o[type IT

error a.ssccuued wj,th1he test. Bqul.valenily. we. may eleCt tc ev.aluate the power of Ibe test To illustr ... how this llllIy .. don .. we will find !be poobaoillt)l of type II error .. m:::i.ted with ""teSt of

ED: 1i=!;"'u,D H" Jl"1Jo

wh ere "" varianco a" is bOWll. The res , proeedure WAS discussed in Section 3.3.1.

The test stau:stit:; for this hypothesis ls

r-1Jo

Z, --;r:r;;

and ueder !be nuB hypotl..sis till> distribution of"'; i. N(O. 1). 10 find the probability of type II emn, we. must assume. dlllt the null hypothesis Bri- J.I. -14J is false and then find the diilldbution of z". Suppoe Ib •. t till> "'0 .. of !be distribution is really I't -1'0 + 6. Whore 8 >,p. Thuo. 1IIe al..."ati"" hypothesis H,: 1''' IJo is true, aM tltlOO this ... umpticn the distribution of. !he .... ,. ",atistio z;, is

(3-4S)

'l'M di'tribution of tbe to" .tnti,tio z;, on<ior bolll hypotJies .. H, .. d H, is mown in Fig. 3·6. We note dUll !be probability of typo:1I error is 1IIe probabillzy <bat z;, will fall beIWoon -<:.c. ... Zon gi.on <bat the altern.~v. hypolhosi, H, Is true, To .vaI."", thi, pro .. bilit)l. we' must find F(z....J - F(- z..,,). wbere F dono ... !he O1lI!lul.tivo di.stributlon ronetion of !he N(!J{;./<1. 1) diStribution. Tn terms of till> ,tmdanl ncuael cmnulative di ... tribmioR. we tb~ bii!l.'Ye

(3-46)

.. II!e p1obobili,y of typo II error. This equation.will else work wb"" Ii < O.

EXAMPLEJ·? , .

Th~ saeen couteelS ~f coffee. cans filled CII .A JlBl'liculflr productiOI1 line are being stUdied Studards &pecl1J th81. the mean CClfltent! IllU5t be 16.0 ez, and from put experience it is l:Down tb:ot the stMdard deviation of the can ecn~nrs is 0.1 oz.... The hypotbeses are

H" ,,-16.0 Ii" ,,;<16.0

A rand"'" sample of nine eans Is to be used, ""d tile typo I Orror pro •• billty l! specifled a5 a ... 0.05. Tberetore, the teSt Statistic is

ead H, Is rej.c,," if I z., 1 > ZoO!! - l.M. Suppos. !hot we wi,b 10 lin<l tile ~robobility of type n error if me true Jn4an contents &rePl;: 15.1 oz. Since this implies that 8- #] - Po - 16.1 - 16.0 - 0.1. we heve

fJ-~ la~- 8;)_~ -lal' _ 0;)

",.J 1.96- (0.1)(3»)_..1 -L96-~)

.~ Ql ~ Ql

- ¢(-J.M)-4>(-4.M)

;;'0.1492

Thai is. tho prob •• mty that we will inc,,,.orly firil to reject Iio if tbe tmo mean oont~ ore 16.1 ot i! OJ 492. Equivolonuy. wee"" soy that the power of th, resl;, 1 - fJ - 1 - 0.1492 '" 0.&506.

We DOte from • ..mJniog equatlca 3-46 ond FiG- ,..s that 13 is • fimctinn of n. 6. OJ>d '" It is CLlStL1mBfy til plot curves illustrating the relationship between these parameters. Su~ a sct of ~es jJ shown in Flg. 3·1 foe (l- O.OS. Gr:a:pb::i suca :as l.b~e are IlS'llally celled operathrg·eharaet.Jlst!c (Oel cur ves, Tho parameter 011 tho vt.nlcol axis of tho se eurves i. 13, and the paIliIIl_ on tho horizontal ul, is d ~ 161,,,. From .. ,mining the cperetingcharacteristic cerees, we see that

1. The further the 1NO """" "t I. from tb<: hypotbeoiull volo"1l<l (i.e., th.larger the volue of 01). tho smaller i, th. probahility of type n error for. given. _ '" Thai ts, tar ill. specifi~d eampte size and fr,. the te.sl will ·det.r::ct large diff'CterLCe.!i :more easily !:ban .small ones.

2. As !II" 'ompl.'ize n increases, th. prro.bilit)' of type II error gets mIlIller for a .specified S and a. That is. to detect a specified dltferenca we ma.y make 1M ~~ reere powerful by incre";ng the 'ampl' size.

Operating-cimra'teri,ti' CtlIVOS ... e use ful in detemlinlng how lorge • sample ls I<ij11ired to d<:to'" • specifi<d dilforenoe with • parili:ulaJ: probJthlli'l'. As on illu.ttatio u, scppcse th.! in Example l-7 we wiSh to determine bow lorge • sample wili. be neoes,uy m have , 0.90 prob.bilit)' of rcjeo1ing HO' ,,- 16.0 if tho true me," i, " : 16.OS. Siaee S - 16.05 -16,0 - O.OS. we have d- 1 ol/"~ 10.05110.1 _0.5. Frem Fig 3·7 with 13- 0.10 arid d = 0..5, W~ find .r:t '; 45, :approx:lm.atcly, That 15, 45 observations must be taJ::~d to ensnre 'bat the test bas tho d..tred probability of type n erer.

Opero.ting.cIl""",lerl!tle O\J!VOS are availabl. fur most of the !tOnderd sllltisticol "'''' discussed in this: chapter. For a det.wed d1scusdon of the use of operaung-cbBnlttcnstic::

CUfVU. refer III MOOlllomory and Rueger (2003).

Minil.b ,OJ> also perform power and wnple size eakul,ti"", for "",erol bJ'POtbes!5 lesting problems. The following Minita. olUplay reprcduc .. the power coleulodons from the coJfee c .. -tilling pro.lom in Example 3·7,

Power 0.&508

PCWlI!lr and Sample Sue

l·Sampl e Z Test

Testi ng mean - null (versus not ~ null) Calculating power for .. ean - null + difference Alpha - 0.05 Sigma - 0.1

Sample Size 9

Difference 0.1

-

Tbc foUowing display snows .Kver~l sample :!ii:z.e iIIXU:l &1llV1er ca:J.cu].e1til)tJJ based QC. the rub. beriaed ""pbolt problem in E>=lplo 3·3.

Pow.-" and Sample Suo le-Sampl@ t Test

Testi ng ",ean ~ null (versus not • null) Calouiat10g power fcr raean • null + diff .. r snce Alpha ~ 0.05 Sigma ~ 117.61

Difference 50

Sample Size as

Power 0.3354

1-Sample t Test

Testing m~an ~ null (versus not - null)

Ca lcul atrinq powsr formun - null + diffHence Alpha ~ 0.05 Sigma. 117.61

Sampl e Si ze 45

Target Power 0.8000

Actual 'PO\'ler O.8D55

D1 fference so

l-Sam-ple t Test

Testi ng mean ~ null (versus not ~ null) Calculati ng power for mean • null + difference :Alpha • 0.05 S4 g"''' ~ 1U .6le

Sample Size 15

Difference 100

Po"",r 0.8644

III ",,!1m portion of me dl.ipl.y, Mlni,.b calculates tho power of the test in fu,mple ~·3. ass.\Ull.i.Pg thelE Eh~ eegineer wOLlld wish !.O reject me nuU h)lpodJ.e;sis it the true :rne1!1! U'B-

. blliaed """",it)' tli!ferod I,om ~200 by .. much" 50. um.g s .. 117.61 es an es _ of the true stMdard d,=-vil!timl.. The power is 0.3354. whJ,clJ tS ll)ilr. Th~ ne'X;l calculaticu determine, tho ,ample size .,., would be "'qoir«I to peoaice a pow,", of 0.8 •• mw:b better v!ilil~, Mm.imb ~ tbiill .a. l:D!J.SiderBbly larger :!i.ilIIIFle. aiee, 1l - 4IS~ would Ill: te~d. The fiDal c.:Bll::UlatkllJ det~ th~ power with j:'j - 15 if 3: larger differ~nl:e. beweea fhe tree mr!!.an :5t!.bilized viscosil}' and the hypothesiled Ve!1l6 i!5 oJ tuterest. :FOr a diffem:tce of 100. Mini .. b ,eporu tho power to be D_SliM,

34 STATISTICAL lNFERENCE FOR "IWO SAMPLES

The previous seecen presented byportJesis Etosts end eoefioeace intervals for il single! populel:lOO pe,nunerer (the m~iII.n Jl. the variance al, or II proportion p), This eecuon exrecds tbos.e MS\l]1S to the case of two ln~p~]ldent 'POFlilla.nons.

The g~r!l :!iIirua.tiClll is SbDWD in 'Fii. 3-6. Populatl 00. 1 hes mean iLl B1K1 ''ilartallCG 01.

.. '.1.','.;v-l: •.•. whl:~a:s.p.opnlati~ ~.b:a.s..mea[1 itlllJld ~~. ~.lDference.!" will be based Oil two~. dom :!i~]es of siziis"nr Bri'd ~~~;.,~:5fIt:~\ieIy.:That' ~~ X~l~'Xl;i;·· ... ! xli! 'i~ It tandom saeaple of I'll Dbserv~!j from poj)l.llarinn 1, and ~l. J:::rh ••• , ~ is I. ~dom sample of ~ obstmuons from pcputauon 2.

In this ~,.otL w~ ~w JUlrutic81.infe.rences on the diff~ct:- in IDDaoS III - ~ of lhe pcpulatfoas showe in Fii::. :3-6, wbere the vadeeces d} and oj are known. The ass:umptinns for (his seenoe :litO summarized here.

1. ;(~,t ;(1,1 .. , ,xl!!1 is :I:ranOO-n:J SiampJ.e from P'01'ulatiml 1. 1. x".:t", .... "'" ;., a rood"", .. mple fmm populatioo 2.

~. TOe twopopelatinns ~'od b}'''1 and..,:.ro independent.

4. Both pcpu1ations BIe normal, ur if they are not.ecrmel, the CClJ.ildJtiO~ of thl: i=:f:!lttal ~t tneorem apply.

A Joglool PO;"! os"",."" of II, -II:! ;. tile differ en ce in Samplo "",,,"':i", -:r,_ B1Ige<I Oil the profI~1:5 of eapeced vehies, WII:I have

SIrq;lI.l:. .sUl'l~~2

..[11~ J:j~""'''''nl ~I'~l'o~"~

f1p1'fi U t'tY~:U:llrc~ltfii~ pgpi,]~.th;lrtli,

-_.

-----

L_. __

t, •. __

B Bsed OU the. assumptions and the preo:;di;Dg ~ts, we may .state the following.

(3.47)

EXAMPLE 3·8 .

A prodacr d""eloper. is inIer05ted in mluolng !he drying time of • ptimor paint, 'l)J,ro ree mulancus Of the: paint are tested ~ fD.11nIl!atioQ 1 is the star:lll.ard c.hemistry, atid fnmli.lation 2 bas • uew drying ing"''"''''t that sbould reduce tho dr)'ing rime. From ""l'Od..,..,. it is knLJINn that ttle sc.andaxd ~iaIiOD of dryiIla mae is B mjnlltes. ud thiJ inbm..nt variability s.boulrl be u.affected by the .ddt"OO of tho eew ingrerlieot. To .. ,pocim'os ore painted with formulation I. IIlId ""other 1 D specimeo, "'" painted with funnul.tioD 2; lite 20 spectmeos are painled in random ocelot Thelwo Simple av<!3g0 drying times are "'1 -l211l1in and Xl;; 112 mini respectively. What conclusions ClIO the produCI developer drElW abotlt the eiftlctiYenw of ~ new i.ngreml:nt,. wing a ... D.oo?

The hypotbl:.SC:i of intezul here arc

H,: I't-""-O H,: 1',-"" >0

Th,q_tilj'

11 as an NCO. 1) di!!rlbutioo,

"I'bis result win be used lO fonn ~ of hypotb~ aod confidence. intervals on PI - p?,. Essentially, we. ma)' think of PI - III as ill. ~r 61 andits e.stlinnmr is. 9:;:;- i1 -.i2 with varlao<:, <1;- crI ln \ + oiln~, If flo Is tho IIIIll hypothesls value spe<>ified ft>J: 9. then tho tesr !teristi' will be (9-l\,)I"l, Note now similar this is 10 th< '''l ... tis~o tor •• inale mean used in the pre.vl,oos sccUoa.

~ '~.

or eqoM.len<ly,

HypQt:h~ Tests for a Difference in MIIlIUlSI Vadaneer. Known

W, now ooosider llypothesi. resling on the diftemJce in Ille """"'I', -1'0 of tho twO pop.l&tio .. in Fir. 3-8, Suppase we ate im<es.led in '"-'lil1g """ tho _co in "' eans 1', -1'0 is equallD • opecilled val .. 4 Thus. tho mill bypo""~' will be Slated as &; 1', -I', ~ <10. ()I)_y. in OlUIY cases. we will SI"ci!)t <10 ~ 0 sc thaI we are testing the equalilj' of two meM' 6.0., Hr;; 1', ~ I/i). The .ppropri.", too, SlaIistic WOIlld be fOWld OJ J<:Pl>cing 1'1 -1'0 in "JU •• on 3-47 with Ll". >Ilrl !bit res, <lati.uio would bave • otandarrl nnrmel distribution undo. Ii,. SUppos,lhot the altommive hypothe1is is H,: /1, - "" "<\0- Now •• ,ateple value of -Xj -.i'2 th" is cOUSidc",blY dilrtrtn, from <10 i. evid,,,,,e thaI H, is 1r\I,. Because Z has the N(fJ. 1) dis1ribuuon when Ho is true, we would Ial:<> -Z"" andz.. ... th< bcuaderies oflbo critical region JUSt i!IS we did 10 the siQ;]e sample hypm:he.,sls lurinl!; problem of Se.ctioo 3·,.1. Thi. would give. , .. , with level of 'ignificaoc. tt Critioal "'.!ions for rho _-sided alternatives would be located WniJ.ady. FonnaUy, we sw:mnarize these I'eSllJrs here.

Ho: /1, =)L, H,; 1',>""

Now since.xl = 121 min Imd Xl ~ 112 min. Ib.e test statistic is 20; 121-112 ;2.52 (g)'+~

10 10

Because the IeSl stotislic 20 • 2,52 > 20", ~ 1.645, we ",joe, HD' /1, ~ 1'. at the a ~ O.OS l=vol and concllld, that adding the new ing,eillODl 10 tbe pain! .ignil5c .. ~y reduces th, drying ttme, A!tem,rively ... e can find the P·value for 1bI. !os, as

p. value = 1- ¢l[2j2) _ 0.0059

Therefore. H,; /1, ~ Jl> weald he roi"",d " any ,1gni~cl!llCO level a ~ 0,0059.

Null hypothesis: 'resr 5laosric::

(34)

Confidenc.1!l InEm'VBl on a DiffeTCDtc :In Means, Varia.:nCI!.!i Known

The 100(1 - a)% oontid<nce 'n' erv al on Ibe dif!iooouce In two mean, 1'. - /1, wl!oo the variaIlccS are knOWD cao be. found directly frDID results: given previll\lsly in Ibis soction. Re~.all that ;r11, .lOll,. . ,XIII., is a:random s.unple of UI ob1!il::rvarioos from the first pepulsnen end x21, ."1:22, •••• x~ is III rmdomsample of n;r: obs~cvatioru from !:be seconf3 popul:11. .. don. It XI and.x2 are the means cf these two i.am.ples, then a. ]00(1 - a)% confidence in,ervaI 00 tho <!iJfueru:e in m ...... 1', - Jl> is given by tho fuTIowin8·

AI!ernatlv. Hypoth .... lit: /1t -",,010<10 H,:1'1-)L,>t.o H,'/1,-Jlo.<t.o

R'joclion Clit<rlon, 20> z.... or 20 > z,.., 20>2'"

20 <-z..

13-49)

nu. i •• two-sided confido"". in...-val. en .. .!lded confideoc:. bounds oan b. obtained by osins th.e approach Illustrated in Seedo" 3-3 for the singl"...."pu. case,

-

3-4-.2 Inf~,ce fur a D.lffurence in Means

" , ";;01 :rW9" Normal Djstdblltions, Vorianc~ Unknown

We now extend !be retllliS of the pmriml& ~tiOJ:l toO me differel1Ce in means of jhe two dis,trlbutiOIJ.!ii in Fig. 3·8 wb.ca the 'Yarlanc~ of botll distributions at aad O"~ are ultknown. If ftJe sample sues ;r'!l and It] exceed ~a, tDel:) the no:onal: di!imbution procedures ill SE:CIi.oD 3-4.1 could be tlsect However; when .small samples are ~Qr we will assume tb:l~ the popolaecru II£< normally dj,tribu,ed and tese .'" bypoth= ,,,'" end oonIiclo.,. interviUs on the t distriburion. This a3~ly parallels till: ease of weIeDce on the mean of a

single ,S.ilmPl.e w:i.~ uoka,ow!l varlanc:o. -

H'fPCtbes~ Thn; for- the ~ in Melln!

We nOW consider rests; of hypo~es on t:b~ ~ence rn means ""I - P2. of two llorDlaJ. diJittl.lruti.ons. 'oV~ f.b~ variances 0--1 and crt are unknown. A t·UelEiS_uc will be used D:I re.s! lhese hjlpothcs.e;s. AI ucted above, the f.lOl:I"tJali I}' .assumption is tequlr¢d 10 di.We.lop tile; leSt procedure, but _d""", <lop""",", !rom normality do not adsersely affect <h. procedure. Two different situations. must be treated. In um. :first 'CR!i~ we asSllIn.e thel "tbe variance.s of the two nowo! dI._~ on' are unlrnowo btu oqwd; 1h.ol is, "'1 ~ "'! ~ <i' _ lD- <Ito second. We anum!: mat a1 ilDi:! cti are unknown and not uecessenly eqQB:.I.

COl' 1. <rl ~ <tl- ~.d--

Suppose we. bavE: two l!1d~lldl:l't IIcnt.lW popolatLo:n& with Dilknown means J..£I and lhll .. 0 unKnOWIl but equel varlancel. "L= <Jl = <i'.c. We wlm 10 tc"

Ho: "'-P?~"" Ht, /',-P?"""

(3·50)

Let xn. :til.·· <1 J::lr1 be a random nrnp1:e. of 1'1 I observations from tbe.:linr popll]s.t5.on Md xi1~ 4:10 ...• ~ be 's ra.nd(Jm santpk of l12 cburwriDnS imn'l the s~rond populat,iorl. Let ;fl' Xl> Sf. sl be the sample IDi::.II..IlSaOO SanlPlt: vari.a.rJccs~ raipt:cti"\lc]y. Now the; expected - value ,of thl!; dlff~r~c.~ it! ~p1f; JtIe:Bl1!I i"~ ~j'l !g;E{i1- xl);:;;; ~1-~' ~ i"j - ;i"lis iilD

tllJbi;aS~d e.stirnato:!: cd' the differe[I.I::~ in means. The variaaee of i I - i2 ts

It seems felkSoo.iIDle. to ronlbia~ me two sample -vari&nco.s ~ iiI.1Jd .si to foen an estimato:r of u'. Tbo pooled "lim""," of <i' is deli_ned .. follows,

tt~

The pooled f:!ItImatDr of u', domted by ,;;, ts <Ionn," by

.-., 2 :':":: .. (~}~;"7';:· .. r."": ,:,::.: . .,£".:,' . ...:;-.":~_.. '::;..i:",;;,·:--.~ .... !A~h~_~:.::~-'-_'<·_"';i'~,"":::'~ ,;;5,.hA

;. (0, -IV, ... (n, -I),?

p ~+~-1

n: is c&SjI to .SI:;e tbat tb~ pooled ~Stiml!!tOI s~ (:EID be: written as l- ~ ___!!L.:.!_l'f +~J'i

p ..... ".-2 ... , ... ",-2

= .. ,? ... (l-"')!'~

where 0 -c 'I4l s: L 1bm .. ~ is a. we:ip.ted a.ve~~ ~ dle two sample vmam:a .if imd .ri. wh~ "the wcights wand 1 - w depeod OU the· two ·sat.n:ple. stres 1'!1 lAd ;11.2' ObvlOllS.1Yi if ttl ~ '" = n, til .. w = 05 and;' Is sintply the arltlunetio,v<r'ge of,.J ,",".01- If n, • 10 .. d '" ~2D(,.y); <hen "'~ OJ2.od l-w~O_66, The,fi"hiunpiecomribute,n, -1 degrees o!freedom to ?, ano the ",eoRd &Brnjli< oonitltu, es ." - 1 dO8'=' o! freedom, Therefore,

,} h&s n, ... n. - Z do_ ofiroeooro. ," ' '_. _

Nowwe 1rn~ that '~'-" ....

(3-52)

bas a , distribution with .ttl + ~ - 2 degrusl'of freedom.

TlI< 000 of tIU> infOm1'UoQ to lOOt <Ito ~)IpIlthes es in equatlua ~.SO i.! now ""';ght. forward; Simply replace /" - fkI. by ilo. and the multiug test ,tatisrio bas a , di.!tribution witll 0, ... ,n. - 2 d,g;.,o:. o! ~oin oodor H~ /" - P? ~ "". Tho locatiou of the critical regice ~ both t'Y~sj.d1:-d and one...~idw ~ti~s parallels thos~ in the one-aanrple ease,

J

i-

':.:":':.'

: .. '. ~: ~.'.,.

-

,,__-

'--

lU

The 'fu...s.mple Pooled t- 'Thst'

NuilhYPQ~ Test Statistic:

HQ:~iJ.t-""-~

10 :!_

-

'"

(3-53)

Alternative HYpG~bese:!il H':I',-I','''10 H,:/l,-!l.>"" H':I'L-iL1~""

Roj.otlon Crllerio.

10> JIlI2,t1-, .... ":.+::! J:lrto < -tall.rs.,'t-",,-l lo > 1~nr+a,.-2

t[)<.-tli:l:.n.,+~_l

EXAMPLE 3-9 ..

Two o8llllysts ere being anal~ud 1D dekm\iDe bow they affect tile mean yield of. ""'mieal pro eess, Sp'oiJ\caUy. c.i&ll"! 1 is ournDlly ill "SO. but ",alyOl 2 ts ocooi:ubl<. Stnce catalyst 2 is cheaper. it should be adoptod, prn.;w"g it does nor ohonge tIlo precess yi.!Ct An OXperimeni i. rea i. the pilo< 1'1"1 and results in <he data shown in Table 3-2. Is there any differeu~e between the mean yields'! Use «::; 0.0:5 end 1l!SUllll:. equal variances.

Th,hypotll""" ere

If.: 1'1 - Ji.l H,: """I'?,

91-'" 9U8 92.18 9).39 91.19 '9.01 ~.1l 89.21

1I'}.19 510.9) 90.46 93.'1 91.19 91.0' !l'L1Jo7 !l7-15

.iz·9'l..'11'1 31=2.98

LAlJl1~b .... flll.lI'fC; ~i"'l1lh& ~p/Ell!1U of 'Ibis pt~ mrU:lc I;IiI,IC w:bm; ~ WIIIII,c; fJw; CXIL.II1d bII dffi"cRn.', tIIrt1!. i!I III «Iv.aa'II18 '0 IIIi:bQ .afsllllpll! !i!GlIII-~:=:Jt. Wb=dJeAlllpll!l!ll!SIIftIhB!lBJ!l&cg.orp,bothpopLl'"UI)iI!;,!.be r-tllil: b r,o:,~ foDbulttrJ oihI!! UWlIIptiGrl otaqLa1 ~

s J'" -1)&1 +(", -t)ti _ (7)(2.39)' "'(7)(2.98)' -7.~O

p ~ +:1"11 -2 S+.8-'2.

s ~..ff30 - 2.70

F= Table 3-2 we bave x, - 92..:155, '1- 2.39. n, - 8, X, = 92..T.l3, "- _ :2..98, 0Jld "" - 8. TlLetef<re,

= :i - _ 97..253 - 92..733 _ -{).35

.. 1 1 R 1

2.10 -+- 2.70 -+-

", ", 8 8

Becau.se.IQ.025,.14- -2.145 -e -0.35 <:: 2.145, th~ noll hypothesis cannDt be rejected. Thlt b. ot Il1e O.OS level of signifu:lm",. we do not ha ...... ong .vi~"""e to ODIIClude that catolys< 2 re "'I~ ill • moao yield !hat <W'I'<ts from the "'.." yield wben co:taly" 1 is used,

Figure 3-9 shows co"'l'arui .. box plots fu< the yield data to< tho two types of catsIy,ts. The&o comparati ve box plots iOOicOle Ill" there is no obvious diife ... ce in !be modi .. of the two ,ample', although the second .ample bas a dighlly 1A1!l'" _pIe dispersieu or variance. There are ee eucr 1IJ1e:s for compllliDg two s.amples ~'Ih box plcts: !heir prtmary v.lue is ill the "'sua! imp""SJoc !I>ey provide as a lool for 'xpj,.;rung the res.uJ.ts of a hypothesis t-est. ;as: wd1 IS in verifi!Cation of a.ssuntptioDS.

Figaro 3-10 pres""" • Mi.nitab ocrmol probability plot of the two <Ample! of yield do!>. No", that both _pie, plo' ap~ly along ,traigh! lin es , and the straight lines for 0J!clJ Simple have ,imilar dopes. (R.",U ",.t tho ,I""" of the lin. is proportio<L>1lo tho stODdard devi,tioc.) 'Th=foIe, we couolude that tile nonnality and "loa! ,an_os a.sSlJ.IDptiOQi .iJ~ reaaceeble.

.. ~

'~llL

SIIi 1 2

c.c.IyJt I)'p~ DII!b

FL:pIr~ Jot CoIIIfIIladw; bOJ. pJgc& P[pn: j..l[) MlIliTJl;l nC'ftlllilllIOblbili1)l plot; tlr!lli!; ClUIl,.~ yw;\Ii-.da.t.I.

btIKc.ldyll)'J~Id~

-

I

I

I I

'--------- __J 1

,

J

~

, A P-value ~d also be used for decision making in tbi:!i example. 'I'be. a~aI YAlu.-e "p ~O,nS9. (This vetue .... obillinod from, b .. d-beld 001001.0101.) TIl,refute, sino. the P-vo.lue exceeds a ~ 0.05. tho Dull nypotGe!lio canc.ot b. njectod:

easel, al"cr,

ID SOme ,giruEl~.!i, we CiiDDClt N:Elso:nlllbly u.sume that lhc uulalown 'Yaris.tI:.oes. a1 and 01 He equal, Th~re lSi not ilJl exact r"SI8tu:tlc. a'Y2iil.ablm for tc5ti.D1l; Ho .ttl - JJ'1 ~ Ao m this case. How'_, U' H", II, - 1'-, -110 [',IIUe. tit"" the ."",",,

(3-54)

,. diottibut<.d 1I{IP<OXi<nll"ly lIS I with deilCOS of freedom given by

. D-5S)

Therefore, if al " oj, the bypath eses 00 diffemtCes in the means of two ll<lrnllII disrributioQS. are tested as in tht: equal v.a.ri.!lDces case. except rhall~ is used AS the test SUlris.rlc and n, + n, - 2 is repla=! by v in dotenninlng the degrees of freedom for the t<.St

-~e::"l=al,;,.r, .

If ;c., ..:t~, .!1! end .!'l are the. :meaDS and. v antJl.Ce$ of two random saxnples of :5lZ~ III and n21 rO'p"cnvely. from l1li0 Wdq>enclent normal populallODS with "_own but equal variances, meo II 1 OD( 1 - a)% confidem::e m!.e.1"Yel on ~I! difEere.nc~ in means fll - III is

wbm s - ~[(n, - l}rl + (n, _ I )?,y(lt, + ., _ 2) ls the pooled esdmere of the cammon

.: """ !~O_ popu1l1tion ,mndu<LdevtatioD, '4d~t.... ~ .. -l" tIto uppo< (1i2 percemege pout, of <he

I ",,<ribunon with n,'. + '" - 2 do_. <if fr=IollL' .. "' • ".

c...2, <>1"0'\ .

If _f L. ~ st. anD .s1 ate the mUDJ and varl.a:cces of twO tBJldom samples of s.i.zes 1.1-1 ud 1l1:. mper:d'Yely, from twc independent nDImal populadooJ with unknown. Md uneqaal varieaces, then an ii1pProxJml!lte. 1Q0(1 - ti)'% ccefloence inD:!rYaJ. on tb~ Differen~~· i.n mea:ns /1,-1'>1,

(3-57)

where v is given by eClDaO.oo 3-55 and lrn.~ is the upper on. perc~ntage point of the t disttil>lrlon with v degrees of freedom.

EXAMPLE 3·1~ ...•.•.. _ ••••• , •....•. _'- -_._ -._ - .

Ao article in the jolU'JlOl Ho",,,","" Wi"'. <md H_rdoo" Mo'terwi.s (VeL 6. 19&9) repcned th. =1" of an .. alysls of the weight of co1oiu,n in stand!lId ,,",,,,ot and cement doped witll leod. Rodoced lev"" of eoloium wooid in<Ii<>10 that the hydr.tioo mocltani'm in the. CoemfCt is bloc:Gd ifl4 WQnld iillow water tc attack various; locations. i:D the cem~:Dl .!i1l'U~. TeD wnples of 5UmdBrd cemeor had 1m average weight perc:eot calcium of x, ~ 90.D. wi .. ,,!ample " .. d!lId d""iJttioo of r - 5.D, ""d IS ''''''pIes of the lead-doped cemen .. hirl an ~vmle weight percent calcium of Ii ~_ 87 .0,. with a sample s.tandud devi-

atiOD. OfS-1 - 4.0, ' :.-;, ..

w. will """"" that .. oishi PO""'" eoIcltnn is Illlmllllly dimiboted eed find a 95'1'0 cocful<ru:e inteMl OD <he difi;o; .. ce in me ..... II, - 110, for the two lYP"" of c e .,..,l Furth"""""" we will wr.une that bach Illl"llal pc>pOlol1oos bay. tho same stondatd deviation, The pooled .. limatc of me co""!,,,,, Stand!lId diwilltion is found .... g eqeecce ,-jl

as folloWS: ," "

.' ,;, (", - 1)s1 + (", -I),\, _'(9X50I' + 14(4.0)' -1952

P , n, +n, -2 iO+IS-Z .

Ther.f""" <he pooled .tltlci2rd devu.tion "tim"" is '. ~ -.J'i9.S2 - 01.4. TIle 9S'JO confidence interval i. foond usillJ! equation ~-S6;

or UpOll subsllmtiDg tbe s.1!lnple values and using 'a.M:U3 - 2..1:)69.

'---,

(

,

... -_

«:

90.0 - 87.0 - 2.069j4.4 S tit-iLl

:5

~

s 90.0-87.0+2.059(4.4)

5

No'" tho< !be 9,% confidenee interval includes <oro; therefore, at tru. le.el of ,ootid,""e we cannot c-onc:lude lhat there is 8 dilf'erence in the tneMS. Put auotbe.r way, there is DO evirieDte that dopillg the cement with lead aff~t:.ted the meliD weight peteecl3l of c:Ilcium; theref""" we 01ll\ll0' claim that the presence of lead .tie", tru. aspect of !be bydrBtioc medlanism at tho 95% 1",,0) of cori1irleooe.

Computer Solurioo

Two-sample :statistical tc!SIS can be: pedonned using most :SUl.ustics software PllClm,ge:!l. 'Ibe followin~ di:s~I.y P<"'eots the output from the Minitab two-sample <-<OS' roo~ne for tbo <lllly'l yield data in Example 3-9.

Two·Sample e-eese snd Cl: C.lal~'t I, Celall"'t 2 Two-.ampl" T for Catalyst 1 vs Cauly.t 2

N 8 B

Mean 92.26 92.73

StD.v 2.39 2.9B

SE Mean 0.84 1.1

Catalyst 1 Catalyst 2

Differenc" mu Catalyst 1 - mu Catalyst 2

htimate for difference: -0.48

95% Cl for differencf!: (-3.39, 2.44)

t--test of dl fference • 0 (vs not ~ ): T -va 1 ue P-Value ~ 0.729 OF • 14

-0.35

The ODtpUI includes surmnary 5tAtistiCS for each sample, coafideece inun-vals 00 me dlfkr<n,. in me.." ... d <he hypothesi. tcsti"g ",suI e. This WIlY';_' was performed lUSun>ing equal varl_"'. Millitllb .... an opdQO ID pcd,..", th' moly,;. IlUIlrninC l.meqoal varianc:c:-s.. 1'he ecnftdeuce l.e~c:ls and il-YIlrue. may bl!. epeci:fied by the user. The hypothesis testing procedure indicates. that we t:3D.Ilot reject the: hypothesis that lbe mean yield> are equal, whicb 'gIUS wi<h th, ooru:h>sious we reaolled odgioaUy ill Exemple ;·9.

Minit!b win also perform. power and sample stee calculBticmS for the two-sample pooled .. test. The foU",,"og display ftom MInitob WUSIlBtO< som' oalool'tions for tbo cot· aly" yiold probl'm m E..."pI. 3·~.

I

113

Power end Sample Size

2-Samp 1 e t Test

T"sti ng mean ~ ~ mean 2 .(versu" not =)

Calculating p"wer for mean l & mean 2 ... difference Alpha ~ {l.OS Sigma - 2.7

Sample

Size Power

8 Q.2816

2-Sampl e t Test

Testing mean 1 - mean 2 (versus not ~)

Cal culating pcw~r for mean 1 _ mean 2 ... difference Alpha ~ 0.05 Sigma ~ 2.7

Sample Size 27

Target Power 0.7500

Ac-tual Power 0.7615

Difference 2

In the fu:s, port of the displ.y. Minltob ooletJlateS the power of the res, m Example 3-9 asS1llllina- that we Walll 10 reject tho null hypotboals if the true ",... dlfI'"""""" io yield> for the two c.,aly, .. were as l"'lle as 2, win, the pooled es dmate of lb. s_ cIevi.· lion.1p;= 2.70. For !he sample $ize of n) ~~ = g for eacb catalySlt the power is repO~ a& 0.2816. whlob i. 'Illi'" low. The "ext oi!lc1ll.tion determines !be """'1'10 size that would be required to P<Odoce • power of 0.75, • mw:h better valli e. Minitab reports that • _sider· .bl, Jarger 'emp le .... for each cotolyot typo, n, ~ n, - 27, W.,ld be reqaired,

Pairod nato

11 sb.ould be '~besized tho, we ha ve usumed tha, the two samples used in the above sests are indepe.ndent.. In :;ome appllc:atidns. pairrd data ate eacccnered. ObservIlIioos in an expenmenr ar, o!teo paired to prevent """"",." !ac,ors from infJatiU& the estlm ate oftbe vari~ beeee, this method eee be used to improve the preclsicD of compariSons between me..". For 8 further disCU.!sjoo of paired dOlIl. see Mcm,ll"mery end Ruoge, (2003). The analysts of ruea a llruatjCll is inustnlted in the followiog example.

EXAMPLE 3·11 .

Two cIif!emll types of mactuD~ are us-ed to measure the tensile!trc!ui'f,b Of9.ynlh~tic fiber. We wisb to dctmnine wbetb.er or nor the: two r.o.a.chines yield the same lWerag:e ten!ile S!Je0&1b values. Bight specimens of fillet are randomly seleeted, ODd cee ,_gill me .. aurement ls n:larle using eeeh mDCbine 011 each .specimen. Th~ coded de:ti! are. shown iD Thill. 3·3.

-

14 18 .....
,. 79 -l
'4 7S -1
61 6i5 l
IS 63 -l
11 1lJ 1
ss ii 0
'. 55 i1 -2 The data in this experimem hlilv~ been paired to pre-vee. the differem:e between fiber specimens (whicb could be subs.lantiall fmn> affecdn& !he I ... 00 (be difference between machines, The test prccedare consi'ts of obclinina !he differecres of the pail: of observadcas on each cf the 11 specimens-c-eey, ~ ~ Xlj - %2fr J - 1, 1. ' __ , 1'I-8nd then leSring tht: hyp<J<h,sis that the mean of til. diff=ce I'di. >ero.No", tIlot testing He: ""~ O!O .... ivalent to teSting Ho: 1'1 ~ 1',: furtIl'l1IIOIC, the test 00 I'w is simply !he oo.-sompl_o r-test discussed in Sectioa :1-.3.3, The tell sEausac is

IIlld

( ~./y i(dJ-ill' fdJ-~

J'~ ~ i:=L..__ _ /=1 n

n-l n-l

andffo: I'd~ 0 i. ~",red If It.1 > I .... ~_,.

In our ",,,,,,pl, w< find til.,

-

-~ ._. __ .

-_.

.f:J.:,

Chcceiug a- I),US resull!1 j.n 'o.w,,' ='2.36:5. and we conclude rJJlB.t there is no 51l"O1l.1 evideuce !O i~die.a.te that the two lI'lIChinC.5 dif{~r ill thl:ir .nen.n !eMile. strength meas.ureme:clS (the ]>.value is P ~ 0.18).

•• ~ .................••••••••• wo n 't' 4. U"'~:I+'" _ u .

3-4.3 Inference on the Variances of Tho Normal Diotclbudon.s

Hypotho<!! Te.stlnt

Consider ~ting the. hypOlhesis thlt the variIDceS of two md.e.p~t normal distributions are equal, If random.ampl .. or sizes n, and n, are tat.n from popoJ.ti.ns I and" respectively, then tbe. test s-tarlJrlc for

HD: o1';'"j H,' crt .. cii is simpl},- rhe ratio of d1e two sam-ple vuiances~

(J-SS)

We woold rej·~ctHQ.ifFD>FD/1.fl_IA...:·1 or'jf Fril~FI-(rifl)~I-l~-ll whee F(cII2) .. ,-~-1 and F1_ (""-l.o _ I.h, _ 1 denote !he' upper t:JI2 aod lowor 1 - (<rill p=ntase pain .. of 1M F distdbutioo' with nl - Land", - I degrees of freedom, ItSpCm,e1y. The foUowin& dill-

. play smIUnarizes the teSt procedures for the on~ed altemadvt. bypotbeseti.

Testing Hypoth .... Ob ai - o1lrl>m Normlll Di5lriballoD15 Null hypath,si" H~ a1 ~ .r,

Reje<ll.n Crltuwn

Test St.tlili ..

1'0~4

'I

l' F'-;r

,,-- "--'

c .:

1.. .• -

Carnfid.mlce In,t!('''O'al on the Ratic. of

the. Varililnt.es of ".fW.o Nl::lnnal DistributiOns

Supposellu!t x, - N(Jl,. all and.<,-N(p" cr'", w~,..,. and ct.,. unlrnowa, IIIJd we wioh to construct. 100(1 - a)'K> confidouce lnte""" 00 ~I ai. If sf and ,~are lb e s "",. pie variances. computed from random samples of Jl, lIDd n'2 observatioes, ~ti,..eJYI then the 100(1 - a)% ,,"o.,id<d oonfidoni:e interval ;.

(3.59)

_ F' __ • I, the pen:em.oge pon;,. of the F <!llllriborioo wilb u and v degrees of freedom such th .. P (P., $ F ...... ,) = (112 The com:.polldiJJg upper ... d tower eonfidenee boWlds "'"

'(3-60)

(3-61)

3 -4.4 Inference on Two PopulatiOQ Propartious

Wt DOW consider me case where tbm a1tl rwc binomial parameter.! of interes:l-SBY, PI ... d p,-and we wish 10 draw info ..... ces .bout th".. proportion" We will present lorge • . ,,",,pl. hypl>fllosis teSting end co.lidenoe interval proced= based "" the nermel appro<imatiQD to the bmomJal.

large.s.mple Tho, J,,, Ho. p, = p,

SliPl'a se thot the tWO independ .. 1 ,,,,<10m, """,I'" of size< "1 IlOd "> are taken from two populatioo5-, and Iet XI and -"[2 represent the. number of ohsr:rvadoas that belong to tbe class af Wtere5t inuu1WJes 1 and 2, respectively_ Purthermore, tupposC! thillt rbe normal a.pproximation to me binomial is appli¢d [Q each populatioil. sc that the esfunlll(CIfS of d:i.e popu- 1.",," pmpottla as p, = ',In, and fu = xi.., atId have approximate 00IIlllll distributions. We are ill,",",,"" in testing the hypothcse.l

i~diJl ntJl.r.;V Il\l&i OI'ILYIlppc:r1o.i1 p;1ina of F:. *Illi,. Fru,,. LowcruUJ poidUi~I_ ....... ma:f btl rQufljj lllii'~ the 1.c~illJ:l_II..II.'O"lI:t'F~

I

~- · .. t~T.

H.: PI ~p, H,: PI "p,

(3-62)

z= j),-fu-(p,-p,) ~P'(I- I'll + 1'2(1- I'll

n, '"

I

I

·1 ~

j

1

.,

j

is dl.<rlbuted. approximately as stand"'" normal and is II" basi. of. 1011 for Hrj. p, ~ p,. Spoc,t>cRIl,. if ~ nun hypom..is H", p, = P1 is ""., then .. ilIg tboho, that PI -I'l ~ p. the randoll! vanalll.

is disrnbil.", 'pprtJXjma",ly N(O. 11, An es tim.,or of the ccmrrco par"""!'" p is

jl~~

"l+"l

The [est stlltisd. 1'oT H", p, ~ PI is men

This. leads tc the test procedures desc:n"bed here.

NuD hypothesi>: H.: P1 ~ PI

Teststatistio: Zo = - P 0-<>3)

Nl-i2.+..!..)

\nJ ~

A1ternatlve Hl'J!Dlheo'" Rejection Crlterfon

H,: p[" P, Z. > Zon arlo c -Z ...

H,:p,>1'l z.>z..

H,: PI <p, Z. c -z..

----..'

ConficicnCII Interval op rhe Dlffuencl! In 'Two. PDpUlatiCItL PropCr1i.on5

Ii !here "'" two populAtion proportion. of in.OIe"-UY, PI and ~j, is p!>5siOlo to OCl)SiIlUCI: a lOO( l - GQ% cenfidence interval on their dilferenoc... The confidence. interval is is : fDHows.

Po ~ p,_ -Z«r> p,(I- ,0,) + p,_(I- p,_) S P,_",

n, ,~ (3-54)

S p,-», +z..., p,(1- p.) + p,_(l- p,_)

.. ...

Tili. result i. b""'" on Ill. oonnal apprn>lmation 10 tho hlnollllal djstrlburion.

3·5 WHAT IF THERE ARE MORE '!HAN" TWO POPULATIONS!

THE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE

N. this ell'pler lw iUuslIal<od, IOSliDg and oxperimontotiOD an: • natural pm_of th' engineering .. aly";. proto" ""d oris. oft.n in quality COIlteOJ .. d ongineerin~ prDblems. Suppose, for exmnpl~ that an eD;inee:r is iuve&t1gating the effeer of differeut heal-trel!.ting methods an Ibo tneOI> hord1lO5' of • steel oDey. The experiment would .onsisl of IOStiDg se..w specimens of alioy lUing each of tho proposed beal'Ire,IiDS "",duxl. and then measwinj me bard.ne:ss of -eacb SP~CimeD. The: dill!. from lhls experiment could be used 10 ·de.termin1S which bell.HretUing metaed should. be csed to provide maximum mean hardness,

If mere are only two helll-treating metbodJ: of interest., this experim.ellt could be dosignod and ""a1yw1 wing Ihe two-sample t-I •• l P'W"'ted in this eh""lU. That is, the experimenter hitS a aingl.e f.octo.r of intC!resr-hC!:a.t-trea.tID.c metbods-.and therl:! are ouJy two levels of tho factcr.

MMY Single..facror experiments rCl1_uire lb.aL more tlurn twO levels of the factor be. cca.Jidered. For example~ the engine~ may wanr to i:nvestigllllf: five differefu heat treatiDg "",!bods. In thi, eh.pW wo·ohow bow the "".Iysi. of •• rtaeee (ANOVA) can he used for compllring, means wb~n mere are more than two levelS' of a single faoor.. We. wilJ else discuSS nmdomiza&n of the experimental IUDS and lbe important role this cotr.ept plays ill the _ OXJl"riIn<llJ1!.rloo ""'''&y. In Part IV, we will discu .. bow to d ea ign ... ~ aoalyz< txpenOleILtS, with s~v-eral factors.

3-5.1 Jut Ex.mple

A manutllclUrer of paper used for making grocery begs is int~re$~ in improvlng thf. teaalle sln.ngth of the product. ProdUC:l r.:ngine.erini thi.c..la; that tensile s.tre:n.itb is II. fuDl::riOIl. .f the hardwood eenceeeaacn in the pulp .. d !hal the r .. ge of barowood concemrlli"", of practical intl~·l'eS't is between.5% aDd 20%. A team Qf en_gj.necni responsible fo-r!be study

1

-Hir;_ Obrf:l""atioos
.:.~ .. ~::y~ ._. Con«nmodon (l&) 1 TtItal!i A'I,Ien!!::
1 '.:' IS 11' '9 ,. 10 60 .. 10,00
10 12 17 .u 11 19 1) 94 15.67
15 I. I! 19 11 16 IS )02 17.00
:ro 19 2S " 1'l I" :w 117 11.11
lil 15,96 d-ecicle:s to inve5tiiatc four levels of b3rdwood conceo.tratioo.; .s".~ 10%, 15% . .Md 20%. They decide lO.mue up six test specimens IU eacb CODCJ:DttatiOU level. usJng a pilot pllnt. Jill 24 specime., .,.'ie.s'ed OIl a labcrno!), ~osile 0=. inrandom OOler. Th. data from thi.! oxpenmeot or. ,iIcwn in Tohle 3-4,

"'J.'1U:s i! M exempte of a oontp:leteJy rando~ smgle-fector expcdment with four II:Vels of the fa<:lA>r. Tbe k1iel. of Ib_ ru.or ore _mos o&llod trea _Ili, ""d eeeh treatment hit!. six observations or rep Hcatfs. The; tole of rnndolUizatiOll in mis experiment is e><II<IDOly itnportaDt. By ,."domizing tbe oed.,- of dle 14 runs, tho off"'" of MY nui>IIllCO ...... bl. !bat may int!n=. the observod lOosiIe !I:!eOgth is .ppIOXIma .... y baI_od QUL For

..

]j 10 15 2'D

HI~I;QtIC&IMI1I!Dt("') ~.

;' .. '-'

""

l1aun 3-11 (0) Bo:.t: pl.w tlr Iwd'llo'llQil ~~1m800n I!a!a.. (l1) otsplay!1~ tile. rood~1

iD. .iLdon l-~ fat Iht ~1c$~1y tmIIbJdud siqlHIJ:i'QI' ClCpCriJJmI'It.

r: .

example, ,sllppme that there is: I!I wa:rm-tlfl effect on th~ tensile lCSting machine; lbat is. the lQllge:r the madline is CD, che greater the oMerved tcQS:Ile stt=ogm. If:all 24 .IllIl$ are: lI1&de in order of increeslng bardwooo c<"".",tmIon (Illat Is, all sill 5% ooo""''''tiO" specimens ... tcs~ mt followod by all six 109& cO.OcntfotiOll ",ecimclls, <Ie.). Iben "'Y o!>sotved diffen",cos in ,,,,,silo ''''''8th eculd also b. due IQ Ills \1",,,,,,,,,, .treot.

It is important to gn>phically analyze !h. data from. doslp oxpen-nt. Rgure 3.11" p res oots box p!o~ of t=lile streng1lo " rh. four ""''''''ood ooncentr.otiou lev .... This fig. ute indi.c2ltu that chanpnl the hard'W'OO(l l:oncen,tration bas 1m eMect on tensile strength; speci1ically. higher hordwood conctntr'UOll3 produce tugher ob...".d "",oil. strength FIlm."".".. Ill' dislribotiou of tensile Strtllgth .t • panicuJor hardwood lev.1 io reasonatly symmetric, and 110. variability in !ensile StfOllgth 00 ee nO! chango dnmatically as Ill' bordwood oom:elltra:tiOU chong-o...

G<Zpbicoi iIlrerpretario" of the data is al .... ys moM. Box plots show tho variability of the ob!~liH:ions witMn e treatmenr (faCIor l.eYeJ.) and me variability ,p,trw'lI!n trea:r:ment9_ We !lOW djscoss bow the data from a. Single~faclOt rBndomiud experlm£Ot can be an&iyted 3tB.d!tl~y,

3-5.2 Th. Anaiym of Variance

Suppose we hi.vp;.a diffi:rent levels of a. singll: faclOl" thai: we wisb to compare.. Somt:rlmer, each factor le.vd is! called iii. treatment. a very gene.n:tl t~ that can be crac~d to the eady applicaUons of experimental design me,hodology in tho agrl.culmru sciences. 1)" response for Utch of the .c: tteatmMI:S is If! random YBtiablf:... The. ob~ed. data woald appear .. shown in Thbl. 3·5. AIl '"tty in ml, ).5->oy. ~O-tep<<!"'ts the Jth obser'YaDon tak~ under ~ j. WI: inilially ccnsider the I:BSC in whicb the~ an: an eqQ:al DlDDbet of Observ8tlcm.s, n, 0111 I!lCb tRalmem.

W. may doscrib. the ollse",atioru; in Tabl. l-5 by the lin ..... tafutiCilI modo'

{i-1.2 ......

YO ~ I'+~' +e~ _

)-1.2 ..... n

(3.65)

wbl:re 'Yq i!i It randmn variable deDolinl !.be {tr)th obsesvancn, fJ -l:S I!I p~etet common to a11 treatments called the Ol'f.raD mean, fr is a parameter associated with the ith auuneot

Y.·

)C.

, ..

caIk<l the ith trOJlItnOllt olfot.~ and 9r is • nndom error component, Note til .. the mod.1 COQ~ ~ve been written as

{I" 1,2 ......

Y(l~I';+"iI jm!.2 .. : .• n

where PI = 1-' + ft i5. the mean or th~ (tb rrc.atment. In drls fonn of the model, we lee- lblU ~h tteatment define:.s i!I pOpuliilltion that haStDl=aJ'J jlr. cou$iscl'llt of the ovenll m~.a.n IJ. p.1U.5 an c!feC! 'fr £hilt is due to that perticuter treatment We will assume that the etrOfS Eq are nonnaIly and indepenOently di.Itib.1M with mean Un> .. d van"""" al. Tberefore. each """",,OIlI can be rhougb' of as a tlOlmoi pcpuladnn with mun J1; end ,ari= al. See F'!Jl.3-llo.

Equation 3';;5 is tho undedylllg model for a ,inl!l",fat;,or experimcol Purthermcre, since we reqtriR. that tne observations IUJ:; ralren in rMOOm crdcr and mal th~ e.nv1ronmcnt (of=. calkd m. expedmenrel uni") in which til<> ,,"almOn" are used is as uniform as po>sible, tllU design ;" oalled. completely rood.mized exp_1nl cIosi~.

We !lOW present tho Ollalysis of varill!lc. for testing the equality of a P"I'uI.~on mesas. Thi, is called • hod .!feets model analysllo of ""nan", CANOVA). Hnwovet. the ANOVA Is a far more usdul and general tectonique; i, will be used extomci.e1y ill Doap..,. 12 and 13. In this secticm we sacw bew it C$J.I be wed to test for ~quali[)' of treatme.nI: e:fiCl:ts. The rreatm:.etlt e.ff~ 'tJ ate usually dt:nned aa devia.tioos :&cm tbe ovenill mean ~ so mal

Lei j1. repI'C5c.nt I.h~ ttlul of jhe observations under the: lth trealment and Y .. represl9lt the. everage of tile IJhservatiom under the ith treatment. Similady. let )I .. r.epresent me grand lOW of all 9b'etvatio". .. d Y .. "Present tho gtMo meen of all obserntiom. Expressed marhlm'laticaIly.

Y;. ~ y,/n i= 1,2, .... 0

f.-fhl/ 'h=ydN (3·01)

.=1,.,

where N =: an. is the co,tal numbt:t of observations.. Thus, Ihe "dot" ,Snbsaip! needon implie-s S1J.mat.I!I[iOIl over the 9ubscr:ipl that it ~plBlI:~e.s.

W< are lIllere'"'<i in ""ling ,h. equality of the a treetmern means 1',. ~. .. ,/1..

U'iog equation >-~~, we find th .. this is equivalen' 10 .... ling th. hypotheses

Ho; 1'1 =1'1. .. ···=1'011 =0 HL~ Ir;l!!O fcIrat lc.ll5t QM i

(>-58)

Thus, if the. nen hypctbe:s:i$ is 1IlJe., each observation consisu cf the o~ mean ~ pluS I realil.2iluon of !he. random error component 4, This is equivalent to ~Y1.Dg thar All N ob~~ vatiODS are taken :fram a. normal. disnibll'Eion with mean Illmd vanance ,y. Therdcm=, Lf Ibe ROn hypoth".i. i. ""0. cblmging m. level. of the (.",or has nc elf",! 00 the mem response.

-

13V

CH/J'I'ER'''''''''''''''' .... ~

;. ~

"

~

\

,.

;om the total variabi1i~ in me sample dlta into two component 'aile hypOt.huis in ~lI.tiOD 3~68 is. bEised OIl IB. comparison of two 1f the population variance. Tbe IOtal varlil>illty in tho dOlI i. QIJof.squ.ar~

ss, = i: i(y, - Y-l'

j-IJ..,I

-n of m~ total sum of squireS is pea in tb~ following de.finition.

",

i i (J~ -y.)' -nt(~i.-J .. )' + i t(Y~.i'rY

t-1J-l I_I i .. Ij-l

+zi ± (y,. -y-XJq-Y;)

t=:::Jj=l

0-70)

Note that 1h.e crass.product It:rm in ~Ilation 3·70 is urn, s.inc~

t (Yo -J,.) = y,. - "y,. my,. -.(y,.ln) = 0 /"' .

The .. f\m. we hav, shewn 1I1.t equation ~·70 will reeuee 10 <QUO''''' 3-6~.

The idolni!), in equation 3-69 shows tIlat th< ",,01 ""';abili(j' in the dOlI. mea,nred by dl. IOtal = of squeres, c." be p.,,;tioo.d tnto > "'m Of'''j,lllrel of difforenoes between tre8unent means and tbr: gt'fllld mean and & Sum of squares of diffe[er.II~.es of observations within I!I rn.a~nt from the treecnenr mean. Differenc~s between observed ttc.a.tment means and the gnnd mean measure !he differetlce! between eeatments, whereas differ .. ~I:es or obllervatiOt19 wlthin .a. treatment frllllllhe trea.lment mean ceo be. du~ only to random e.rror.1"berefore.. we write. equation 3-69 s)'IIlbolically a!

(3-71)

t· j

.1 !

! I I

We ,OJ] gain oOOsill.",ble insigbt into how 111. ANOVA wo<ks by. oxaminiIog 1110. oxpeCted.oIue.! of .1:\7;""'", IIld SS/i."lbis wiD leed ua to an appropriate stau,rlo for test-· jug the bypo1l1 es Is of 00 dilI'"",oces amcmg trwmcnt moans (or ~ ~ 0).

whore

;-"s~",ii(Y,i"i'.)' ~ "'tal"",,,.of'"lu,,~..,

" i=-1/1'\1 '

Ss,_ ~ni(j1,:-J_)' ~\reatme"' SUmOfsqD ares 1=1

8S s = i i(yu -y,.)' m error scm o{'quaro. [Dolj_)

"f]u, expected .aloe of 111. tt=mont sum of squm.s i.

E(~_",.)"("-l)c:r'+ni<;

• jo.'

Now if 11!0 null hypothesls in equ.o1ioo 3-66 ls true, each "ti i. equal to 1= ond

~S."-)" ni~

~~a> ... ...Jl<.l_

.-1 a-J

"The ",tio ·MSn.- ... ~ ~.,f(" - t) I. calloll lb. mean square for trtabnen!>. Th.,., if H. l! eue, MST ........ is ." UDbi.,erl estimator Of a'. whet ... if H, ts true, M~nlJ e.sti..mAtes rfZ pros a positive teen .~t int:crporates variation due. to the systemsti~ difference in 1reat:m:ent means. (Re.fer to the. supplemennd ma.teriallor drl.s ~ap~

ter for the plOOfs of ~ two , .. =nts_) .

We carr aJso ,bow 111 .. the ""JlOC",d vaIu"of th< eaOr sum of 'q= is E(SSiJ ~ a(,. - J)a' . lbo'",""" the error ..,.." >quare MS~m SS.![a(n ~ 1)] is an unb;~ estima10r of a'

regSIdless of~ or not HD is ttuc. .,"

The error mean square

MS-~ t a(n-l)

is an unbiMed estimator of rr~

-

- .! . ..;,.-,.

--'-

-- --

I. _. '\

Tueee i. elsa • partition of the DUlflll<r of deg= of f:rccdo", that oorreopclll1o to the . sum. ofsL]llaI'es identity in equetina 3-651', that is. th~ are em ~ N observati(lns~ thus, S$; has <iii - 1 degrees of _om, Ther. ore a level of Ii., iaotar, so Ss""."..,.. !las a-I dogue, of freedom. Fmally, within lIl»I tteatmI>ll there arc " repJicotes provicliDg n - I ~ of irewo", with which to ostimate the experimental error. Sinee there are • rreet=t!, we bave .Cn - 1) dogu .. of freedo .. for wor. Thorcfur<, the degI. es of frewom partition is

""-)~.-I+.(n-I)

Now assume that e:am of the. 0 populations. can be. modeled as- a normal dlsttibution..

Using Ihls .. ",mplioD we coo sbow that if me DUll hypoth .. ", H. is true, the "tio

F.; SSr"""""./(o -I). ~

SS./[.(n -I)] MS.

'\vI> on F distribution with • - I and 0(. - 1) degr=s of ~om. FUrtl1enn",e, !rom the expected ""'.., squ", es , we know \hQlMSl is lID un.bi ... d eStim.Ult of rr. Also, O"dot the nnll hypothesis, MS_ is "" uobiased .SIbnator of i', Bowe""r, if the null hypothesis i, false, then the expected ,lIlu. of MSn......u is gRBI<l" than i'. Therdo .. : under lb. alternative. hypodlesis. the. e.xpected value of the numelalor of me test stBllsDc (equanon 3-72) is pa'''' than the ""Pooled .. Ju" of the deoominlQOC Co"'-"!ue.uy, ." ,hould reject H, if til<: .!laIiltic is large. Thi, ilnpUe'lI1l upper-tail, ono-tail critical reg!oo. TIletefu"" we would re.je.ct Hfl if FB > F'3.rfJ _ L.atn:-I) where Fo is computed from equation 3-72.

Efficient ccmpuzadcnel ronnul as for th. SUIIl.I of squares may be obtaloed by expandlng Olld a!mpllfying the definitions of ss,,_ and SST' This yield, the following reml ts.

(3.72)

, .,:

':~

The Slltnll of squares computing ~OrinuJa.s·-for Ihe Imaly~$ of YIl'iMce .. witl.

, , •. ~~a! ,,,,,,,pl. ~~ in • .r.a,,!,~TIi ::~; " y: . . . '.- "

.SST~:E!.Y,--- -. [.1·13)

- 'f"~Jrt, N

• • 41 l l

'55 ,'" ~L1J,.-l=.

~ •. ~ ~l rt' N

(3~74) .:

Th~""'" smn of squ eres is ob..m.<!·br ,.btrscdcn as SS.; =S~ _~ SSn. .... ,.

, C3-7~)

The comptlt8.tlons fOr dWI ~[ procedure are useally summari2e:d in {I!1bular form as shOWD in 'Iahle 3-6. This is ooJled an llDI!Iym .r'l"lriaoce (D<ANOVA) table.

-

r (

J

. ...:.~J

)-$ 'WHATI:FTMn! ARE M01l!: 'l'HAJrJ TWO PQP!.f!..A11ON5.1TtmAlCALYSlS(JFv,UlANCE 135

s"""",.r V~

DC&tees of
Sum of Sqllim.li ' _CD M&anSgL)ate F,
SS_ 0-1 Ms.,_. MST_
~
SSt a(IJ- .) MS,
SSr .l!n-l Th"",,,,,,,

&.-or Total

EXAMPLE ].12 , ,., , •. , , .

C<>n>:ide, the p.per tensile slrengtb expetiment described in S..,tion 3·5.1. We 'an LISe the ane.1ysis of variance to test dle hypothesis that dtifereol hardwood concentrations 00 oct affect the ""'Ill! IenSile strength of the pop er.

The hypow.e. ar.

Hfj: tt='f'l:o;:'t"l--r .. =:;O Hj= if~OfOtatleastDDej

w. will LISe ,,~ 0.01. The WIllS of squllI es far the ANOVA are <emp","" from 'qu'tious 3·73. 3-74, ond 1-75 .. follows:

ss; _tiLt.

rdlnDn[! - t-l 11 N

~ (60)' +(94)' +(102)' +(1271 6

SSE = SST - ss-". ..

s 312,96-382.79 = 130.17

We usually dO'not pedorm th ese oa!cullliOUl by hend. 'Ihe ANOVA front Minitab is pre. senred in 1ible 3-7. Sizioe Fo..o1•1::m ~-4.94, we rej~[ Ho and conclude thai hardwood cooconQ1lll0D in '"" pulp .signiJioanUy aff."", th. """2tit of !he paper. Nore that the computet: output r<pOtts I P"nlil. fir th. test .tati>tio F~ 19.61 in Tobit: 3·1 of""",. This ts e mm.. ,.d .. lee; the _a! P·vlllue I, P ~ 3,59 X 10-". H""""et, ,i_ Ihe p.va! ue is conoid· ~ly smaller than a- 0_01, we ba:ve.sarong Mdet!Ce to conclcde thll Ho is DOt tme, Note 1lIot Minil.>b a!IA> provides !Orne swnmary informatioD oboo, each 10,,1 of hardwood concCI'lb'lUion, including the ~Dfidence interval O~ each mem,

Note th .. th, ANOVA ",Us IL'I whotbu the", is • dlff.ce""" among meacs. II 00.;. oot ",U U9 which moan, differ, Ji the anaJysis of vuj"""" indio .... th., th"", is • statistically .iJni5c1lll1 differeD". among means, ,n.", i •• >imp)" graphical ~ Iba, 0"" be wed to isolate the. ~ differences. Suppo:se. that :y"., hi .. . '94. are the observed a'Y,enae..s for th ese fa'lIl< ~, EAch lrealmtnt, avenge has 'lMdard devi.~011 ai'&, wh,,,, ,,-is the "..,dard deviotion of an individual obwvation, If all Irl"tmon' meam ore equal, the observt=d means jib wOll1d behave as jf they were a sct of observations drawn at random frO:tn a normal di:snibution wi th mean p. and rundar.d ri~iadoll aNn.

Vl.'Iua!iu this ""lIDai djsrnbutiotl copableofhoing ,lid elong en Q,is below whicb the trel~t ~ans Yl,' h ... " .i •. are pkm:e.d, If all tteannent melln!i are equal, there: should be .some posilioo for d1i.s distribution that maas it obvious that tht:: Yr. val11eS w~e drawn from the sun!! distribution. If tm;s is DO( tie. case, uien the Y1, V'Blu~ tlw: de nOI appear to have been drawn from this disaibutian are assoc.iated with trU'tmellD lhat prodcce diffetenr meaa respoeses,

The OPJy flaw in thiS' logic is dun ais: unImown. However, we tBll use.fMSi from the lI!laly'i' ofvuiance '0 Oltinu'e G, This implies !hot a f di"",botioo should be used ","read of the nonnal in m>killg the plot, 00' slace ,be r loolr.s so much lih the DonnoI, slcet<biog a n """,,1 CUI"e "'., is appooxlm.",1y 6..fiJS;ir, ""'IS wide will usually wort. .~ well.

Figure 3-12 .bow. this """"8emeol fur the luu'dwood ,oocenrratin. experin>onl in

Section 3·" L The 5,,",dard devi.~"" of this """""'" dj st tit,"tion is •

If we vima.lize. sliding this. dislrlbution aloDI the borizontal exis, we note. that there is no locatiO. for the di.stribe"''" thet would S\lg;es' 1hz! all rom observation' (the plOtted means) an! rypio.al, randomly .!clecu.d values frwIlbat tli,ttiwtioo. 'P;is, cf courae, should be expected, becau," the anaJysis of variance hes indIoated that the moans differ, and Iho di5Jlloy in Fig. l·ll i.s simply. gr.phical repm;en<atiou of tllellllaly>l. of variance resolt<.

One-Way Analysis of Variance

AIlalysis of variaiu:e
. Source OF SS MS , P
FactoI"' J 18l.79 127. 6~ 19,£1 0.000
Error 20 lJO.17 5.51
Tct:al 1] 511.96 Level 5

10

15

10

Individual 9S" Cls For Mean 8i1..!il!!d; (In Pooled StDev --+--+--+-----~+(--+--)

(_._) (_.+--) (_._)

-~+-----..---..+-

10,0 15.0 10,0 <l.0

H 6 6 6 '6

Mean 10.000 1.5.667 17.000 21.167

5tOt!v 2,821 l.BOS 1.789 2.639

Pool ed S<O.v • 2.551

, a ..

"

'"

I.

"

FlaureJ·ll TensIle W~.!ItlJ II.~ f'r't;Jm ilia bmlwoad «In~1rMl1IrI c:qll:f'i,1oaIl.11f1 ~OOII Clio B.1I1111l¥li disfdbu~ wiiIt. m:ndud rlevio..!l~III.fI1'!;fo:::l ~ - UM

I

!

~ it

I

!

I

I;

i

The figure does in<li<"'" that tr •• tment 4 (20% hardwood) produces POP" with bigh« me'.., ten>i.l. strength 1M. do the ether treatm,nts, o.ndfreatm.<nt 1 (5'10 hudwood) n:suIts in lower mean tcosile scrength U\I!D. do dte ocher ttutlnent'l; The means. of lIt:atments 2 and 3 (10 ..,d·1S'Iio-hardwood, respectively) do not diffei

This simple prooedun: i, a rou&!> bot my ,oseful and offecdve ",clmjque f'oLcompar· in&. mesas followina an ana1y&is of varian.c~ How~r:r. tbl:re ate m:my other more forma1.:; way, to do this. For more deWl! on these procedures, see Montgomery (2001).

The analjlSi. of vArimce ""'me' that the model errors (and as • result, !be,obs,rvations) are nonnally and independenlly distribuled witb the same variance in eecb foo'''' l~ These BSlumptlons can be cbeckod by examining tho ..,idual" We define ..... Ideal os jhe cllffi,n:nce between the actual observatiooYqand tile valuejll tlli>l would b. ootlOined_ • loan "l uares fit of the u.derlying analy.t, ohari""'e mcdel to the sample data. FOI th. type of ""perim"".al design in this ';",Iti"", the val •• ~ij 1, the f&oIO[·).",1 mtOn 9<, ~l the residual is e.41 == Y(jI - Yj.; that ls. the difference 'between Ilt\ observation and the c",,"'ponding ""'to .... l.yet mean, The residuals for the hardwood petcentage experi=t aro .llown in Thhle ,·a,

'!be noomaliry _don con be ._ by constructing 0 DOmlal probobiliry plOl of the =iduals" 1b obeck the a=ption of equal .ari""," at each factor level, plot the residuals agalnst the footer ,ie",1J; and compere the spread in the residuals, It is also u,eful to ptet the re~d.al! .gainsl )ir, (,mo<times oaJIed the fttted value): th. variabiliry in the residuals sbould not depend:in any 'Way on me value of Y/ .. When a pancm appears ill these plots. it LlSUBlly s.l.l~ts the need for I1A.tI. trartsfGrmation.-thl\C: is! me,J,yzing the dElta in a different me:o::lc. For D.'ample, if the variability in the n=.sidu.aJ.s mcreeses with jlt.~ then a

-l r .. ;..·

T;lbh.)..8 R~ furtbc. Hatdwood E;It~t

Ha:rd.'WCIIDdc,.,~ltInan 1tB!idllab
5.., -100 -2,00 ~OO 1.00 -1,00 0,00
!O ... -3,67 1.33 -'.67 l.J3 ~3.J3 -0.67
15!11 -3.00 1.00 2,00 am -1.00 1.00
10'10 -2.17 l~l 0.03 1.83 -3.11 -1.17 -

'--'

'--.

"--

~ ! , ~

L:

Ruidulll ...... L__,-';_'- __ _J

1i1 ... " ],,13 N~ ptdattlity F}gi.lre. ,.,1..:1 I'lOl or rMitju~ 'I,I!f.!.Il& Fto't of rWd~$ from t.be. bInI- futo-r "¥'eli. 'WOCldc~1r.iI.1IicMID;JXrimI::lII.

.... ,,-_"_ J

SIgu:ra l-l..5 Plat of {elWlkBlJ \,lrIII-'!,

Iran>form.rlon ·Such OS log y or ,ry slJould be eoasidered, III .orne proble"" the depend"'c~ of rosIdool scener 00 ~, I. vory impon ... , informatiDn.lt may be desirable til seIoc. the factor level that ruuJrs in maximUDl1IlUJl ~~; however. Lh1s l~vel )tUllY also f.:!llSC more wriation in rupO.D5C from run II) run.

Thc:. independence ossumption can be checlM by plotting th. residual! .gainst the IUD 0«Ier In which the ""perilll-"ll W88 performed, A pattern in this plOI, sceb .. seqeeace of pceiuve and neg.a.live. reslduals, mllly indicate lhat ltJe. ob:servlllrion.s are DOl indepellcknt This. suggest!; thAt run ordfI is importzLnt Or that vad.ables that change. over ti.me are lmpcrllmt and have Dol been included in tho oxperin>onllll design.

A Dorml!! probability plOl of the residuals from the bardwood concentration experimenr is shown in Fig. 3-13. Figures .J..14 and 3-1S presen' the residual> plott .. ",Ilainst the factor level. and tile fiu.d value J;. The!e plot.s 00 not reveal any modo! inode1Ju ee y or unusu.B1 problem with the assumptions.

IMPORTANT TERMS AND CONCEPTS

AJte;mali\le bypolhcsis Anolyw of .orl", .. (ANOVA) Binomial dis.tdbUQ_OD

ChO<kicg .,,,m,l'tioos \'of mtiSlioIll iofi,; ....

""<-

a:u.square Oistn"butLon

-Ccofi_in,""",

Confidence ~~ on means. knoW'lll Wrilli1t:c(5:)

Confidt:ncc i»ltrvalJ Oil meam. nnkDown _oc(s)

COaDdl!l.DCC in~s Oft proportiOn!r CcJcJidea.ce.wtet'Y8lsoolbe"l.!tlanceofiB.lIOImal dhoib.llOI1

Cc.mde~ce iatervlIs Ollihe 'IIU'iaoces or

two omnal disnlbullo'" Diti<:aJ rc&iczl10C' & test !ltati.st:K:

F_ ....

Hyp_ ... tiog MinUnmn vat.iance cs.'limUor Nollbypotl1csi.

_"" 01, dlsoibullOl1 roint en:imelar

Pcr.iSJQD dlsai.b!l.t:iOQ

Power or I smtisticlll ~ l{aadom ,ample

SamptiJl.B dismootinn StJ.risl;ic

!..fJb:trl00t101'1

Ten statistic:

'Iu-m of b.ypothe~ on 1m:iIJlS, known VId_')

nats of hYPO~:S on 1D8&D.B, ~[JW1.I vari.nnc:e{s)

Tam of bypoche:Ie.s on prcponiOtlS Tc:m: of nypotbe;scs on Ihe. vari~~ of .lI<rtIIAIclistriburioo

TeSIS Df bypo(h~ on u,1: l,Iad:anas of

I'M] t1«mal d:i.mi.biltioDS 1i'J>01errnr

1i'J>01lerro,

Unbiased estimar.or

III

'Th~St1l~~t. Itntllll'CCMam,LalpffiW'l!i ~~I!!hoc ........ loknioollJl)tIIc oIXLd-/IIJttI~ r:,;~_ ilM:Jl.'dI!diln Iht. """,m" """'. E.urti~2erk1.

lnll¥:bGtgt W!ibl!ok.

EXERClSl!S

3-1 ... 'tlu=inlid!:diammr.sotbe~useclil:l _ an 8ircraft lerulin&: gclt asiCplbl}' are kn'OWn to luve.;!! nandard. oeviatiOn of cr.OJ]02 em: A nmlcm simptc (If 1:5 bea:rings. has lin I1'II'eJBBc inside di~ 0I8.m~"",.

(.) T es , '"" hypclh<$i. tho! "'" ""'" inside bc«ricg diaJne(er js 8.25 em. Ute :II tWQ.-s.idcd. aI~dve .and ,,~Oll·t

(0) Find tbe P-.alue {O( tha...._ ((!)CDnsm:JotIll9.s9'.t.l'Wt)·si~ ccnfl~ Qence lnle(llal OD. Im:Q bean,ug dimnc.leT.

3·2. ~ tensile s't.1'eoath ~ I fiber u!led in muwa,ctJJ.J:ipg c1Dth is !!If iIII.eTe$t to tile p.ncbaser, frav.i,ll1U =xpe~ mdicates ttw the lledud devllllllcm of lea.sil,= ~ ~ 2 psi, A I1IlIdom"""!1l< of eiih' fiber 5pt£UneM i5 5f;lected.. 1D4 U. Q1R:rqe mtJ:sil~ wmllim it fDLlIld to be 1'27 pd.

(a) Th<I: ... ~. !hal tho m«Il II!Dsile s~rth cqL1aJl 125 ps:i \eI":ill5 tl'e IlltemaDYI!I IIW the tru:1l.tJ exceeds 12:5 psi. Use a = o,a~.

(0) WluI. is thoP·YaIue 1m tha 1<.<,

(c) Digcl,l~S; 'Wily a cll1e~ a.itemaO\ie Wil ebOlQl. in pat( (~).

(d) C, ....... 9SIO low", ecrdideooo

G iD!r:rvalon We ~ft ~B mensrb. TII.e9l%\'ioelifcofil~rtU'j ultdin 1IIi:ardine ptOllmUr:r is essnmed to be IlD["~ maJIy di","",~d. A raadcm ...,piIo of

10 ~is: Illbjecttd lOan.a.cceler.aled liir: ~,t by nnming lhem cominlloUll)' a[ :on ~!lfed lCmp!lm:w:e unti1 fai)tlI'e, and. th. folloorio; lif&times (ill bcurs) .,. "",,,",ed, ZB, 21.1, 26.8, 2.1 ,2, 242, '8.4, :IS.O. 'l1.8, 27,3, aod 25.7,

(8) The mBD1Iu.cnu"1:1' 'Wllnt!; tQ. 'b6 ealain that tho ..... bot",,!, IiIo r.:x.ceI!ds: 2S h. What Cl1'tldus.i.oc! CaD be: chaWn hllm mcse. dAta (we rr ~ 0.(5)7

(b) Can'Duct It gOLf::. two-sided cOf.lJl~ dence inIuval (III. mean ~ in the lIO=:elertted1CIL

" (0) C .... """. _ "",babili<y pi'" If of k bane..ry lli'e. data.. What eoll,~ cJlI:riocS c::= you drlllW?

,];) Using the. data frOM Exercise J..3, COD:muct 1!195firJowe:r ~c inl:arvt.f on ..... ha<1cry Ilte. Wby wDIIld Iho 'tIlJnl1f1CtIlllll' be mtsra!iled in I. one. ~<Iod<01lli_iIl.....n

3-5. A MIN process bas been dc~lop!rl fer EIopplyinC pboKn.si:n til llS-mm ~UicDn wllfe:rs' !:Ised in matlnfacnmng lntqr&ted circu.i'l$,~wa:fet!~!l:sred.:and the followia,J phDfCesJS{ lhickilesr moa8Ulemenll O. """"""" ~ 10(0) were "0"",,",,; 13-l~n, 13.3951, 13.391J2, 1l.4Il1S, 13.4001. 13.:39111. 13.:l965, Illd 13:l92S,

('1 _1tebypo_iI,ot.,...tIrick. .... i, 13.4 x 1000 A, U .. ,,= Q,Q5 a.od a~sume 8 twO-sided 41tcma1i~,

(Il) Fi,d • 99,; ,,",·~ded _'" 1n[ctYll Oil IDem pbDtOre!ri1l thick. ness • .Al5.l!1IU!!l that Ibid:o!l.!i:!!i :is normall\' dioUlb,<o<i.

(c) Does the QOml.I.lit)! auumpdon Dm tcasO'DSbIe fer these dQ!a'J

3-6. A. macbina is ~sed 10 ftl} C'ootaineB with a liqWd pr~ Pill YCJIu.me CILD b~ assumed to be 13anna!Jy disttibur.d, A random slbIlPle of 10 conmitJlllrS 1.1 ,o1<eted, IU<!l <he 0", con"''' (oz) ..... follow~ 12_03, 12.1ll, 12.04, 12.Q2, lUll, 11.9B. 11.16, 11m, l:tlll', and IL99.

(4) SIlppD6C thai lh~ ltLD.Ilufa.cTiJ.Tl!Ir 'W8fllS to be SW'e that the mean IJd coatttJts" ~d.s 12 o:z:. WhaI: cx:oelusions can be dnwn fwm tile dB[, (use-a-Om)?

(b) CCGStnlCI a 95% MD....slded c:~ eeece ior.e!vll em the !DeaD fill voJr '"",,

(c) ODes me assumptiOD at' nonnaIity setm approp;tlt!c for die fill ~ datB.'

3-,. Fum:. ehbirl!2lJ ~ as" ~ fiwI: in !iO'IM Iype! Qf~mcc.allu.raypfOCdsel. 1'hi1 material ;s. shipped In cQn~ !Wi! tb:t coummer 'lIo'!l.Jh! varias. It is impOrtant to obtain an areurm. C$'IimaI.r:; of mean r:Q[1tai.n1::r wetght Snppose.lhat from bIg cxp~ a reliab)c. valu'= fllf [ht, 9.anCIald ~oo cf' ffux ccwnaillCI wci,bl :is detcrmin~" to be. 4 Ih. How

-

!.J.,

lIrae ~ 11lnP!1!I ~DLlli!j b£. rcqLluOiI lO !;QO- {o1 Coru.'tnl.Cl R 9,~'" c:Cl1lfider:U:;1!I interval

$tructi9SlJljrwo-iidBdr;:DnDdcocein~~ on the. dilterence jc mcu fill

val Qi'i tbs· ~4D 1hatw a total 'l,l,l'jdth of . __ .... ~ 'tcll.lmt.: - -r-

lIb? ( 3~1i.l TwO qDllity control ltdlJIici.1IJ Tho <ll_ of ah""in.", .nO)' rods \.....___-. ~ "'" Mfa", finial> of • m.tal

produced 1)11 III extros1oa. macbJnc. arE pm. C101:~ the dam dlow". A$.s1lIilt.:

known 10 have a Ua.ot:W'tl ~via,'Iicm of that the nieasUll!lments arC. llOI'malljl

0.0001 in. A ,1III<Iom ""'P'" of 2'1 rods msntbul«i

has an a ... c:rage. diaDl.cl.el' of 0.5046 m, Cal Test '"" bypothesis m.t .,.." nxI

tSi:.amde:r \s 0..:502.5 in. AJI'IIIIJe III i:WJQ-slded alternative; and lI.5C a-a.OS.

(b) Bod til. "-value fut lhiJ lOSt

(0) CDI'IstnlCt a 9.5. twHiqed cad· denoc. i:rrte.rval on '!he nlaIrI rod

-.

.' ':r~ The aD~ut volla!!:!:: tlf a po~ SL1ppl)1 ~& \.,_J .. .-d '" be .."",,)jy dl_l«l.

Sixt~ Qb2.rntioD.t: Wz:Q rat tlU:lIlom on voltage Jre IS fOUOWI,; 10.3'. 9.30, 10M. 9.91. 11_65, 12.00 .• 11.25. 9.311. 1l.54. 9.95. 1O.2lI. 8.37. !O.M. 9.l5. 9,)8. md IQ.BS,

(., 'rut !he 1typctWi. dlII !he """" \l011.a11:-= OqLlaiS 12 V IgBllut a two,. sld.(hlterm<lve _, a ~ O.OS. .. (b) Co""",« • 95';' tw""ided coofi'"

clence intetYal 011 JJ.

(0) Too, "" bypotho$i$ "'" d' ~ 1 ."". u!!!ClOS.

(d) a..s""" • 9S,", IW<Hidod ecolidcnc:eiDr.ct"YBlau IT.

-r.: te.) Cilnstr\ll:l a 95,;, tl~ eotlficlcntt

I ..... ,~ interYlloo: a. .

, \ ""'-!!(iJn. ......... "m~ of ",,,m,lky . 0 '~~ reuSODihle for the ooq,ut 'tIO~1

3-10. 'J'Vo>"_ "" uood fo, IilliIIt< alas, 'Dottl .. with a ,oi>dIink b_ The

Allins p"" ..... '- IOl"", -deviatiom I1'I-O,OlO l.itt:r aad o:z=O.015 Iil<f, rcspe.cr...Jy. A _ Slmplo.,r lit - 25 be .... Iomo _ 1 aod n,.:; 20 klnleI flom marhfne. 2 ~ul~ in lYerilllflllct COOi~ 1:1' Xl = 2.<W 2ltl:.fti IkIld.!:l =2JJ7Utertl,

(a) "Ie,lt the hypOthWB tb,at b(J1h ~lW:Il!!J fill lO rhc AIID~ nl!C COD~.11IIn1 a = O.w:. What are )lGUf oonclu!ians'!

(bl Find .... !'·v~"" f<I< Ibis ton •

.. ~1

1.29 1.34

1';4 1.41 1.;6 1.31 !.20 1.31 1.27 US

.. d ~""_""" ODd """,01 be (.,_ .... byp_.rlW .... eue

BSS1Jm.ed ~oal. ft:aa:iMII dcru:tivr: in !.hi.~ precess i.&

·'··i;,,:·;·.:::~l~'."'~.',cliIf._'''''de'''Ii I"!'., eesea, ,. 1);Cli! Usea-OOS

. "(\) ~oliWi"<r quC!Jdili,i! oiid(2)'oiJ'" :~:"T'(bl Fi,;.~tk'P.Va1~f~tbis t est.. ·,'.':'o",,',,'.

q,ue:cchinB. iIIr'I:' ~ QD iS2.PIple.l of ill PID'- (f;:) Coomutt a 9S11J uW'6" eoaDdeolX: -'.

IiClllar type cf ~ ll1l..t:!y, 'The rrosllllS j:rl.ll:E"'lal on b E[1JC p:roc:.!Iu Wicmm

~ibown here, Assume mat b~ is DODI:olifomWIS_

normally -dlstribu~. ~16. 1Wo proCf:'!lses are IJIIerl ta proO¥I~ {erg:-

ing.s ~ in_an ai.tt;nft w~g a!ls!l"mbly_ Of2(]()foIjij,g.~,~ _proc:ess J, 10 do nlltccnfmm toth,; !iUf;'DgU".peCi. _, fl,aICion~. ~_. c.f ~OO forgings 5e1eaed from pmc:C5! 2.10 arc [I(lOCDn~ forminS ", : .

(.a.) Estimate the fr:a~ffDn nOtJcDllform~ ingfOr oaeh J!f"'O'~

(b) 1'91 ~Ibc bypothes~ IlJn' .... two pcocciJe.l haw identical Er;,ctWw; __ 8- Use ~~O.ll5.

(c) COD!:lrud: a 90~ confidence iDlqwl lJu'tbI: ~eeic. fr.a.etioo D.OIDClIIj:l.fccmirlS hrlWee1ll the two p!OCCUI:li.

;:)..17. A fY:.W pU.mCIlIlOD usn jij ~BCIlled in II. chemic",] pf.Q~. Before. i11i i:tIstlllladcc. • taru!o[O .• im~l. yicl<b! <be foUowin~ data abooi !h.< pe;con"l" of !mporl<y: ~,- Hl, sl = 6.'~,..:d",. 10. AlIa' in<taJl...." .. 1IIidom """pil! re.uu.d ill

X, ~ 8.0'. sl = 6.111, "'" lit -.. .

(I) Coo)'OU =lUdo <hal til. twO ,>Ii-

1ttI~.arc:·tgua.l? US~ q;'II 0.1)5.

(b) Can you _,;a, .hilt the eew pLUi.JJcation Li!v:iD!I hag reduced me: ';~mcan .p:;ra:.:ntage of imp,uRy7 Use.

.. a 710.05,". • .

3-18. 1Wo ~m: ~ or gJa.s1 bouie, arc sw.t.L'Ible fur Wi~ by_I. soft-driuk. be'l,l~ bo!tlc;..Thein1<nlal piOu.,,; =11fi of Ihe bort1.e is III impmwt Quality chlJ'llIl:IIP:riSlic_ II: ts k:PowD that Oi • 01 =- 31) '¢ FIOOl a. tii!Idoin-SAmple of n~ "" I"I!!. 16 'Doilies, tho ..... """,orB _agw ere []~ed to bC.J.I.:·l'1~,8. psi 1lI:WIl':2. ~ 181.3 psi. The coaipmy will DOl we boUle. dc.aign "l eolc&l .it$. pRllBUte ,''' • .-..dI ..... fboal.<lC<iin I' Jry at I~ ~ p51., Rued ea We sanipte d ... , """'Ill ... y "'" bonle de'; .. 2 if we !.Ise (r!!! O_Q:51 wti:al is the p'rvaluc for

IIW!est'I . ,.

The d.il:mete.r of. ~ tod is nIU5Ic:red by)2 io:pcon>'" ...ii" .lmB bOlh •

Saltw.." Quoneb

-on Qn..,ob

-

. ,. ---=--c.~==~ ""~""~ __ ""~ ~_.~_, ,_~

:1-12.

(a) ~ tbe bypctbe.sis 'hit the mean su1.'f4c8 6.n.isb me::asurel'ru!!l1$:rm.de by the. twO ~s 1Ir~ eq_u.a.l. U!;" tl iii CUJo.5, and u.som.c Mlual yarimces.

(b) Wbs "" !be prmiea! implieation. cf Ihe te.!it in pllrt Cal' Discuss .... hat prBCtical CGuclllslon.s ~DU 1&IcuJd dPow if the :!=luI! hypothc:ait were

!OJ'''''''

(el Ascu"';"g ..... tOe .";..,:eo "'" ~u.I, I:l:Illstruet 4 !IJ" ~demce in~ 0'1:1 tlJc me.m ~Q~ in surfBee-6:nlsb meuureracnl!.

(dl ToOl."'" hypollmi< rlW tbe vananc:es of the meuu~ made by the two ~:hni£j_1lI1 art: cq_g8,t U!Ie a _ 0.03. What ... "'" pncti<ol impHcaIlQ'DS: if the. []uU hypothesis ir; {l:.jcered?

te) Co"""". 9>'"' coolidonoe"""",~ cstim:atc ci the mOD 01 the: VmialIces of t~el.an met:hJmDCllt C:Iro.f.

(f) C"A5'1Iwi(a95lJ1;~inr:t\'al an the vB.tiance. of mcllSLJIe.m~'Dt cm:ir for leCbni:c:tan 2.

(,g~ Doeoli UlC nor.ma~l)I US'lltl1ptiG'CI

s:eem raso-nlJhlc fot &be. dalll?

Suppose dial. ,;[1 - N(p.1' 01) BIlC ZlN(p." till, an<! til .. x, ",d >j ~ _

~C~OL D:.ve1ap II procw!d.urc. for OD'D",stroeting &. lOOn - 0.')9& (!ollfideo&c. intel"YiJ 1;10 J11 -/L!, uSLmuug' that a1

.~--

145' 150 m 148 141 152 14Ii 154 !3,9. 148

1$2 150 141 1>5 1~ 1<6 158 '(52

III 14J

:1-1'.

(., ,JUt .... bJ'l"'the.i$ IbM .... ""an

.' h.mne., ror theoaUwa!er_","" p(oel$ cqtIII.ls the ~ bardr:lcss fllt' the oil q,uetl.l:htJ:l! precess .. ;:Use

Q!5 O.OS aod II:DUIDe equal \fariInCC$,

(bl -'1 tlu.< tOe ""'""""" o! an<! ~· ... oq"'-';e_IrtlCt.95'i1>a;mfi. i;li!nUiD~ollilie:~[;eiD liiea.n baIi:!oes,s.,

{e.} COmll\lct 1l9.541 CCln5dc1k:~ jn"IUVal 011 the ratio ~/a:i. Do~ the aSSumptioc lJIede wiict: at equal wrlwes seem rcasouable?

(d) 0'", <hC · .... mpticn of "".",.u!)'

seem appro(l!ialo fo< tb...,_7

A rimdom :s;am;l~ of "lOCI prinr.c;d ~ul\ bouds ·(:'DDliiitl£ 18 .tkfcctive or UO"D!::IDQ.· f~uni.tt;"Es1:I.lD8Tt:thep~frac..

OOB UIIlncDnfo~.

(il. 'nst ··the'·byp""""~ !hat !he DUe :frac:d . .oa. oo.tJcClcfonulng in dW procCS!l is 0..10. Use a-O.O.5. Find :~.P-va.llle..

(b) C_ • 90,," __ sUt«I ooofi-

eeece Interv-BFon the ~. frll!::tion DOllccnfomllng m the produedOl'l p(QC~5.

A nodom sample of 500 coJ1DCC1iDg rod

piru; CCl:ltamS- ·iS~ noneonfol;lllin.B LlIiitl •. Esdmill •. ~ pro_ ~!l-. 3-U.

{~', [~::~~.

-_.

3-liJ. !be. (:Or)]jng.!iystcm in III nuclear IiUbmarille. c:cnsists o! all al~mbl)' pipe

through which B CLXlllnl ~ cir~11Ited. 3.%4,

SpectHca.d01J5 require mit weld nreQlth

mU!t meet or c.J;cecrl 150 Pll,

(21) Suppose abe desi~m deJ:ide. I;D ~t the byPolhe5is. Nt}. p. = 150 vmus

11'1; }1 > 1.50. Explain why 'lJrig wbere a1 md c4 :ar.e. known. R~cc.s

choice of alle:rnative is pref~ lD SR. .lhnited, and lJOl\Saluently the kJ,al

H~: ~ e 1.50. umploe li~ I'll + PI:!_N, How i5boold 'WI::

(bJ A tandom !I:amplc of 2(1 welcb Illocatc the N cbserv,nons br.tw=D the.

rqllll:!i ill i = l~," psi and .r= ]],.5 I:'Y.tO pDpUlflr.icms fDoble..tc the moupDW-

11$1. Whit cooelu5ions can )IOU dow etfI.I) test?

::~: hypotheai! in p;art (I}'l UK ]..25. D~L:ap a [0;5t fur (be bypothl!!t=!

3rll. ArI e::tp~t was IXIllduC'~ to:inves- H{}; JJ.l ~ 2JLz.

"~te <M Illlini 'apabll!ty 01 pacbginl H,: J1." 21',

cqnipmcct at Ii wiDeI)' in Newberg,

0""",. 1Wen<y _ of p;"", Grl. ,.-....._ whet< dl md <>l_ oro _ n.

were randomly sekclCd IDd the fill vol- (>2'_ )NrooonfgmWies cecur in glass boales

wne. (in .mJ) mel.lil.ll'~_ Am:imt! that 611 ...... ,~.~' accorDina 'ID I ~js.sr:m d:htr:ibutiOl1.~ A

volume has R DOTlD2J distribI.1006. The l'2J'Idom sample of 100 bcldes conllim .II.

tliUt m as f-olJawl: 7~. 7:51. ''''1, 1:53. lOW of 11 ~tiel!.

753, 7.53, 752. 753, 754, 754, 7.52. 151. (a) Develop a proadllJ'C for tcsing the

1:5:1, i:50, 753.75:5, '53, ?5fi~ 151. and hypotndls that tt.le mean of a

150. PoI"""d;.mbudDII Aeqo.al ... pee.

(I) Do tlll: . .a_au. .support (he daim that tficd vlllu.c 10. Hint: Use lhe. n-crmal

!he !illmducl de\'illtitln -of fill mlume !lppradJDati.tlD to. tht: POIlSOCI.

.illeu thm 1 ml? ll~ a ~ a.os. (b) Use: _ (eSults of pa:rt (Il) Co tctt the

(b) Fmd , !)5~ two-!ided confidlSoe:c: nypr:::.lhrosi! thit the ~ (ll;:CW'R;nte

intel'Yll on the .5tiLtIdtrd devi:&ti.o:Il of rate of noo.ccnfonnir1es .is A ~ 0.15.

fill "I(Jlu~ Uk Il:. am,

miaomucr c:;;alipcr &nO 21 wmkr caliper. Th~ :tcsu1u. are sho'WJ!l bee, Is there I diifc.m:J.u between the mtU tIJ,i.':.I!I!rlremenu p1'oduccd by lhe two typ"'...1; of ~p!.I''1' Use a= D.Cn,

7 a 9 10 11 II

.Mltl-Oll:lester Vcm.i~
Caliper Caliper
O.llo. 0..151
0.151 0.150.
0..151 o.lll
Q,l5i. D. ISO.
o.m o.J51 [3
0.00 0..151
OLll 0.1.53
o.iss 0.1."
(J,1S2 C.l'l4
D.ISI 0..151
D.LlI 0..150
ats: 0..152 {r::) D04:3 il.!ie.etD It:asoBELble ttl ~ that fill vol\lale b-.s " qormal disrrl .. budoo? .

SUl?PC15C 'R- wilh kI fe.Jt ChI:: hypotheses H., 1'~IS

H,: 1',,1$

",bert 'm. 'blow that r1- = 9.0. I! 1M true mma b realJ}' :20. what liltilple ~ mu5~ be used to e.ns~ tfIiI.l &he probabilir; oft)'pe-II error ii Ba ~ tbaa 0_107 A5IlIUDe mat a~ 0.05.

Ccns!der WI hypothese.'i

H.: J1-1'c1 H,: 1''''1'0

'l;l;rh!:re ~ ill knoWn. Dcl'lle a ~ ~il][l for deletm.ining the samp~e rlzetordClcct:i.Dg,lIIcruemeanc!Pl #-.#.&0 willi pmbabillty 1 - fJ if !hi type I""",

jH"

Stamp~e sal!: .Uoca.t1on. Suppo3c we are lc.stingmehyprnll.c:ses

B.: }l,~1'>

(~AIl insp""'" 000"" ill, "'''''oe-lWsh - de:f'ecu ill. jjishwa.slmr.t. A tandem $IIJD.

, p~e of fi~ dlshwl!hl:r:s CQcW~ ~ SI.lclJ. defel;;t,s, U th&c. tU90n 10 coociu.de tht.C ~. mt:ln oeamen.ce ram or.mrfa.ce.-fuWb dcfCets per dl.shwam cl:cems 0..5'1 U~ the rc:n.ll!a of pllt (a) of l!xcrc!I.se '3~l6 and B.SSl.uru:. thlt tl = illl5..

3·1,;8. An in·Une te.stcr is used to cv:alua:e the elCl::trica] function I)[ printed ch:eW! boards. "Ilili; .:wacfrl:ne counts lhe Dumber -of dehct::5: {l~ 011 each board, A random' SiiIDpac' of 1000 bouds. eontains I!I t-oUu or 6&8 dc~CCII, Is it r~anablc tel conclude \J)1lt the fIlQIl ceeuaeace rile of -dckcf$ is 1= J1 US!: the rc.ml..b or put: (.) at Eutchc 3·26 ud 1WU1ne 1ha< "=O.OS.

.3.'29. An lU"Ikl.c in SiJlid SliJtt lll!c:hnD,!1IV (May 1987) d~ :m U:p!<riffilmt tc &~ the effect ~ ~F, no·"", rite on cc;;h mriformiry on 1 s:ilicou wafer u.se.dilljn~lm.anu.fat;tIIring. Three flow r.aleS are tert!d. and lhe rt:SLllti.DI Ilnifmmit)l (.in PI::ft:ClJt) i:!; observed for six test ~u; at ~sch flow rate_ Tbl! .eata U~ :5bcwn in 1M loll_m"r. !ngmble.

I I

I

t

1

1

j

C,FI5 Plow • Observations

(SCOn 1 1 4

125 2.1 2.6 4.6 3.2 3.0. ~.8

16D 4.6 H S.O '.2 as 4.1

200 4.6 2.9 3.4 ].S 4.1 5.1

fa> Does C~6 fl.cw raz affect cteh I;lQ)formky'j' .t\.na'Wer 1hi:5 qu.:.rt:L-o~ by oong an amJysi_s of \lariaor;;e With tr .0.05.

(b) Coostnu::t a bex plilt of ~ etch. uwio:rmity dati.. Use !:hi! ploDt, to!ethcr with !he iltIa)y~s of 'llliiaor::t: ~I[S. TO dc:u:rm:iDc wwe;h gas flow r&ewould be best in ~!I or c:Leh ualformi.~ , •. small percent. is bcst).

(c) Plot the rukbJal! 'Vef3Wi prcdktro C,F, flow. 1 .. "", ... , 1lU, plOl

(d) Dou '!he - rlGrmaiiI}' a.sS1.1mpU.o[l seem n:as~lc- in Ihls.~m'

3 .. 30. C-Ompnl'_c the IIICIID e:td:i uIDfOlO'llity "al~ ues ar taclI of !:be e2F, flow 1'lUe, from Ex·erci:se 3--29 wj:rb a saJed l di.trribu--

den. Dces t:hlJ; an~ ilIclU:Bt~ that there lie ~ces in mcao ~b mifrOrmitY it Ibc dilfC'efit flow ratu? Whir:;b flo",! produce differe.nt lesubs'?

3·31. AIl 1rtk:le ia. the ACl Matu-ials JoumtJi (Vol. 84, 19l!7. pp. 1,ll-111iJ <l<sorlb .. several apcritnQl'iS invcatipDDB the t-tJddiBI!l of cocc:~ 10 ~move I!:[]bnpped air. A 3--in_ di.wnek:r eyliadcr ·was used. mel Ihc IJ.W'Cber of times 'dlis rod ..... used I, the duJp vorloblo. ~ rr.sul'ring' cGmpt'Caiive snElgLh of 1M cCllCIele 1Jl'!Ic1mr.1J is the re.lpGQle, The data a:rc. sbow[l in ~ .fullowiog table,

-.

1..z:vrc:1 Comptea.siYc SI't'eIla:th

10. 15.m 1530 1040

15 1610 1650 1500

1ll 156.l \730 Ij30

25 1m 1400 1510.

(a) " ,_ any diff..."". !n """P=~i ... e S~I.lh due. ttl Wt rodding

levol, """""' "'" '1"""" '" .. !n, thl:: l:I1alysb of V~I.GU whh

a.o.m.

(b) C ....... 01 boo ]>loIS of ocmp<CUiYe "'OCiIh '" "'<Idinc 1e",,1. Provlde • pr.1IcCeal m.tr:rprtUllion of tht:Se. pkns.

(c) Construt=t II 1l0lm1l pr:ohability p~t of tbc "",Idunl.< _ !hi. ox.,.,;·

mcru:. D(loM the SSSllmPtian D! iI QOtma) dhnibutit:ltJ. for CDmpiusivc .meoglh ~ lc:uooab1e1

3-32. Camparc. the mean ~pre,nive 5ttenl!Jtb at."", rodding ...... l fmm Ex=iso 3·31 widJ B scalcd l dbaibWioo. What 1:XIl'It:i1lstem wDldd you clraw from 'Ibis plot?

l-3j,. All wwninLlm producer mlIlUfacture-s carbcm auode.li kid bakc5 them in 1. rins; fumaee ptlm 10 'LISC in 1l'I~ !II\elIing GpCTilion. The baked deMit)' or the anode is III impOl'll.nt q1.llllity cbalad:;aeristi.l:, p it may alIecl anode. life. One: {If the prtXeill ecginl!a!i :su~t:5 thAt, tiring tempt:r1ltUte ill lbc ring fIlmace aft'e(;Ci; beked ltIode clcnsity. An c:~pcrllXl,i!n.' 1M!! tun lilt toLl.!' d:i1ferea; temperaruRo lcwh, and su ancllks WctC bilked at each It:mpenllllrC ~ The daIa fram Ihe. expeI'iIneDt 10110\'01.

SIlO 41.8 41.9 41.7 41.6 415 41.7

52S 41.4 4J.l 41.7 41.6 41.7 41.B

Sl!J 41.2 41.0 41.<5 41.9 41.7 41.3

57, 41.0 4G.' '1.! 4l.1 41.9 4\.5

(0) Dco. lirinl _pot""'" ., 1M ""I furnace afled m.eazJ baked 1nOck. dellshy1

(b) Find the 1Uld .... fa< tbi, experi. men iIIlld plot thc:m on It ool:tllal. p"'b&bllitj' !COle. Commont eo tho p!Cot

(c) What lirin~ !emp'_'" ....".d you W:Ol!lJDCod u.sma1

3-34. PICK the 1Csiduals from Ex~Ge 3-J3 il&ll1.llIt tbe firUl.g tcmpCIillfLlres . .lI; there :lILy wdit;atic:rn lba.t lImlblEty in bWd II..DOIk dcns[t)' .cepellds (111 the 5rlni remperarurc? WhDt fi1in1: IClllperarutc 'MJ'LI1d. you ret::OQmll:Dd urii'll?

3-3.S. All artic~ iu Envimnmfrnt41 Internilitfoi'ldl (Vol. l8; ND.. 4., 15191:) descnbes

• lim cxpa1mell~ in wbk:b the. IIDOllM of mdDIL released. i:c !Sho·'WCB wag 11'1"vcsD,Ptm, Rlldan-enric:hed water WI!! used in tbo elp<!im<nl. m><l !l>: dilf,."'lt onlice ~ers Wttf. ~d,in shower beads.. The dua from the. ~r5I( Ire. shoum in thr:: fo1lawin! table.

Orifioe
DiM!ll!tei: Radon Rele_d ~)
O:n BO 83 83 &l
0.5\ 1l 75 19 79
0.11 14 73 16 77
1.112 61 71 14 7.
1.<0 52 6l 61 (fJ
1.9'1 60 61 64 66 •

(N ''DoCi5 the. sn.c of the: orifice ur~t"lhe. r:neID ~rcentllC cf J'lI.fiDCl, Icascd'JI Usc the analysis of \I.ar.iNlU and a=O.OO.

(b) AIloly" tho ",.lu from thi! expelIm<dt.

3-306. An arlie'" IB, tll.e JOltr'l1lll aj th.

RJ.U1ro:-htntlc.t:ll Sm:iu, (Vol. 139. No. 2. 1992. pp. 524-53') _be.! on experlmeot ill invaUg.e. me low-prq.. 11m. vapor dcpDsidoon ()f 'poly.silieon:_ The ~per:i.mem was earrlcl;l Q'LH !n • :wge.cap:adty ItactQ[ It SEMATECH iD A:ll.Srin. ~a.s;_ The [el(;(01 bu ~ral WBfi:r pcdtloos. and fmllr of these ,pcsition!'; .e seleCled u rlmdo.m. The rc:sponse variable. " film lhickness uniformity. = re pIi<ot .. of tbe cxpetlmenr were 1'Lln, and the data m. as foUow.s;.

-
PosiuOQ .tluifoonlty
2.76 5.67 '>19
1.43 1.7G 1.19
, 2.14- 1 .. 97 lAI
4 1).94 1.36 l.tc (I) Is there I diff'mnlZ in 1he wafer poliibrm.!;? UsC- the mlllyN or "'lSiaxe I1IId a- o.O.s,

(b) Es1:Ima.u:thcvaria.bilityd'LIelc'll.l'w II'OritioCI5o.

(c) Estimate. the tlDdom mer ~mpl-

-.

(d) Analyu tbe fcsidIW.!i from this

expcrtment and dllIlillCnt on'mod!:!1 ..J"l,acy.

PART

'_' ~:_'.', ,_.~ ..

Basic Methods

of Statistical" Process.. Control and Capability Analysis

I

1

i

,

I

I

1

j

I

~

jJ

It i, impc"iblo to Inspec! or rest quality into • product; lb. product must b. built right <be fil5I 6lne. Thi' implies lb.! the lrUlDof ae turing process must be stable and <bat all individuals jD\'olVed wim me process {inc:!Dding operators, engineers, queliry-assurance pC.fSonnel, and management} JIlLlst continuousl:,' .seek to im~ process pertormance MId reduce V1IIi,bili'llln J<t,y p~. On-tine .... tIsIloBl pro""" ceutrol (SPC) is • primary !001 . fer achieving this objeCli ve, Control chart, are !b •• impIes! type of oe-nne ",.lislicBl ptO,eu-<ootrol procechlr .. Chaprers 4 through 7 p" ... t many of Ill. b .. iC SPC tecboiq.Ol. oonccntrating primarily on me typo of oonltOl cbatt proposed by Walt'" A. Sh.whan .. d called the She"bort ..,nIT" ""art

CIloprer 4 is an introducdcn to <bo gell"'ol m.llIodolosy. of .. ansueel process control.

This dlaptt< deICrib", several fiI~tal SPC probleniCsololns tools, inClud4>g ." inlrodoctWn 10 the Sl>ewban coenoi chan. A disco.,;on efhow 10 implement SPC is given, lIong widl some eommenlS on deploying SPC in nomrtanufactwing etlvironments. Chapter' introduces Shewb&rt counol ebms fur me.a5Ul'mt.cn!: data, s~ti:mes called v","iabl .. coarml cllortS; 'lb. i and R C<lJltIcl clwts at< dis", .... in detail, altmg wilh .. VOl" imp"""'" '''''.tk"" of these charts. Chop,"" 6 pte<ODu_,shewtlilrl control cbom for attribute data, such as • fra.tioo ""f.mve or nonconformi.g, oonconlmmitiu (defects). or .",,<onlonnitiu I"" nnit o(product. Chop<er 7 explmeS pin .... ""p.blHty analysts; thaI is, how control cbam and other statistical ceclmiqge,S can be .u.sed ~ ~ma~e the nat-Lltal capability of • process and 10 determine bow it wilf perform rel.ti""lo ,peciftcatio.,

146

on me prooncr. Som£ a_spects of .setting specifiellur;)tiS and toleranc~. includinl the role:-anoe ji.nack_up" ~em., are also pre:scn!ed.

Througbou~ this secucn 'IN'e :tII~!;S the three fnndiUtJ,e'rLtal uses' of a control chart:

1, RedllCtion of process variability

2. Monitoring and surve:i.Ilan[;~ o.f :l prOI::e.S5

3, Estimation of product or process parametees

4

Methods and Philosophy of

Statistical Process Control

CHJ\.PTER OUILINE

-, ~

I 1

~ J

{

1·1 INTlI.ODUcnON

4·' CHANCE AND ASSIONABll CAlJSES DFQ)JAUn' VARIATION

4'3 STATISTICAI.!!ASlS

OF THE CONTI\DL CHART 1·3.1 Bulc Principles

+,),2 o.cl.::l! cJ CMmllLLmi.'I:!I

"'I-J.3 SarrqHC" Stu. m.d.Sam~Iir1~ Freqverw:..,. ~·l.' l\a""""l S.bl'o"!,,

"·3.5 Anal'f5I!(IfPattemsonOmanlChJm 4rJ.6 Olse'llnlM 01 Sc:R1iminl:: RlI~~

fooCooodChlm

4·).7 Pha.c l...d PNo .. n

Cmuml a.... App_

4"1 THE REST OF THE "MAGNIFICENT SEVEN" o!-) lMPI.EMENllNG SPC

4·. AN APPLICATION OF src

H NONMANUFACllJlUNO APPllCATIONS OF srlJ"lSTlCAL PROCESS CONTROL

SUJlpl.c:.mcntal MII:teri11 for Chapter ..

54-1 A Stmpl.c AlttrNrjvo! to Runs Rulci 00 the %Ch""

CHAPTER OVERVIEW AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES

r

.1

This chapter ... tJuee objecri,'" The firS! Is '" present 1M basie Sl'C problom-,ol..;"g tools, eall.d lb. ''magoUi<=! seven," and tll mustl1lte bow thes~ 10011 form • cobesive, ptacticIl hmowock for quality ilnprovemeol Th. so"""d obJecri", is to describe til ...... ri,tieal besis of the _hart oontro! chon. The rea<Io:r will see bow decisions abo"1 """ple Ii.., .. mpling in""""" and p_menl of ooolmi limits aftect the pe!fmmance of • control cillI<I. Olhet key C<loceptt iru:lude the Idea of radonal ,ubgroup', interpr«atioo of oolllIol nbart signals and patlOrnS, and lb ••• ""'. _length as a me .. oro of ccerrcl chart pe.donnBDCe. 'J'b.e thifd objective is: to discuss and illustrate some pI1iCEiCll iSSUe! in the implement.tion of SPC,

After careful study ofthi, cb>.pter you sbould be abl e ., do me following: 1. Understand chance !Ild wigna.bJe causes of variability in a prceess

1. Explain Ill. sutistieal basis of the Snewlwt control chon, iru:lodin; ceciee of .... pl. ,i>e, eontrolWnlto, and ",mpUnK inrerval

3. Explain Ill. ratinoa! subgroup concept

4. UndOlstIOd th. bas" IDol, ofSl'C, the bisO>grlrll or ",",,-and-leaf plot, Ill. cheek sheet, the Pareto eben, me. caw.e-and--etre.et diagram. the defect ccncenttalioD diagrmn, the $catt~ d.i3gram, IlII:d me coDttol chart

I

S. Expl.m pl\os<: I ond ph."" II use of comrol clJort's

6. hplain bow .. erage "'" Ienglh i.! used .... ~rft>rmmco """"Lm for • oon~1 .'

chan .

7. Explain bow ,onsitizina .w.. and pattem recogWOon are u~ in conj.nction with centro! charts

4·1 INTRODUCTION

If • pro<lu« i.! '" meel or exceed cu,,,,_ expectations, generally it ,oould be produced b)' • process th" js ".ble or _"blo. Mere Pl"cisoly. tho pr<>cm must be .'poblo of operating wtth linJe variability arouod me ""I'" or ocmlDaI dimeosi"", of the product's quality charocteristios. S",tlstfcal pro eess e ontrol (spc) is • powerful coDection of problem-solving tools useful in achieving pro ... s , .. bility end improving CIp.bility through the redecnon of variil.bUity.

SPC can be "PI'lie<! to <lily pro cess, Ita ""'eo major tools are

I. Hl''''gram Ol!tOlll-and-leaf I'IDt

2. Clleck sbe"

3. Pareto cban

4. C""",·.rul·tffeeI diagram

S. Defect cceceneauce diagram

6. So""", dlegram

7. eontrol cbart

Allbough these tools, ofton called "the m.gnIO cen t soYen," are an impOrtanl pan of Spc, they <DlIlPn.e only ill! tI!Ctmi<&l aspe.ts. SPC bIIllds "" eo.ironm",,' in wblcb all iJldi';d· uals in an organi'ZUiD:n seek continuous imprcve:ment in gllality and prochlctivhy. "llLi~ envir'om:nent"ls best ~eJoped when mBnB.ge.mem becomes involved in me process. ~t'I,re this _",ooment is ea tablished, ""tine appllcatioo of Ibe magolllc,"" seven _ .. part of me usual manner of doing business, and the orglUl.ization is well on itS \VA,! to achieYA ing its qUality improve"""" obj«tive,.

In this chapter we will pre.enl an overview of the mapili_' secee. Of "' ese tools, the Sbewbort CODtml cIwt is probably the most teclmioaDy sophiarlcared. It wa' developed in the 19200 by Wall"" A. S~hort of lb. BeD Telepba •• uoo"I<Ories. 1.'0 ulldcrsl1U1d the otalistical concepts that form Ibe bui' of SPC, we mast fiIst describe Sbewhar!', thODI}' of vuiablli!y.

4·2 CHANCE AND ASSIGNABLE CAUSES OF QUALITY VARIATION

In any produotion pro"""', regardless of bow woll designed or o=t\llly m.imained lt is, ''''~",,",~~I.1f!isn.tur3l..n.bil. iIY~noise" ~e cumulative effect of many !lID," t'-ss~avoida"ble cau ses. In the fnmewoll< of .catisti<&l quality 000001, this hatllraJ ..nobility is often called a '~;able system of chance C.IlS es," A proeeea th.! is opm.ting witb only ,baM' caUS0e5 o( variatiOii preseat is said to be inSlatisticai control. In other wnrcs. the cbanc~ causes ~ .lID inbeR.nI.p~rocess:--··---'-·-

Omer kinds of variability may ~~y be _ens !tubS onwnr Of II! T!T!'1f!:SS- Thi.s variability in Icey"qunlity cbaraotensCCi usually we.dram three """Cd~y a~eur controlk.tl m~~...m:.deft;crjve pIIW matedal. Such variibil~ ity is W' .... ally lorge wheii compored '" tile bookgrmmd noise, om it ,;;rnmy repr .. eo~ an """"oeptobJe level of process performance, We refer 10 m... SOlUte. of vmobility til", are 001 part of the <banco cawe p"";" .... ..,;gn.ble ceases," A process !bat is operating iJI the Pr~sem:e of a.ssism.a~ sajd.tp-be-out-o~.1

l'!>e.:le chance aTldU. Jl'l~oC.'\lS"" of variltioo ere ·ill",,,,,DOd iJI fiR'. 4-1. Until '. w,,;1~lb. ptOC<.S' ,bOWIl In Ibi. flJllUe is Je c:ontt<>l~ that is, o.,zy g,..=""~timL~.p=t. As • result, both..~_~d.!"! <!ov.!~oo of Ibe P'!'S'W are '" their m.o.QIIlrol values (SlY, 1'0 and "oJ. At time I, an 'Iilignable eacse occurs. As shown . in Fig. 4-1, tbe ~ of .thi.! .... ign.1>lc.cIIlseJ. !Q shift Ibepr.!l!;:Ss ...... 10 • now _!!!De ~At time r2: ~I)ther assignable canse. oc.cilr.s. re.5u1tiog~Jl ~-IJo~ Dot flOW the p:roce.ss !land1ll1l devl.ticn 110. sbift.JI,m-a la.ger vain. 11, > ·"" • .AI time ~ !bore is another .. signoble calISe pr ••• nt, ,",ui';:, In both the 1"" .... """" ""d..sIandonl dovi.tioo. ta!dni on """of·co"tro I va!u".. From time " forward, !be prese.oco.Qf.~""'~as ruult<d in .an ocl-clf·c.cmtml process.

. ·Proe ..... will O&n OPel'"~ ill tbe in-c00tt6\ ... to for rel.~ .. ly long periods 01 time.

Howe\le.r, 00 process: is truly srabl~ forever, and. e.ventually, assignable causes will oc:cnr. .. emiJlgly at tandom, resulting in • "sloift" to In oul-of-<X>lltrolsllte what • larger propoltioo of the process outpu! does ""I confoqp. to re quhe...", ta, For example, note from Fig. 4-1 thaI wlltn-the..lW<ess is in control. 1110" 0{ tIlo: olodUC~Il!'.wi.ll.!aIl~ 10000er and uppe;r secede, limi"'l!:SL and USL, ~),. WIzo tho process i. oet of~¥'&!,!':':.~~~~~~specificatio",.

'The. KImin.aiIDfI)' cililHlD! and ~nlt.bll cawu 'II'fd ~puI by .s~m. "llI~. $JIImI!. wtiIIn IIR tJJ~ ~IIJll... _DOlDIy clmlmoa ~ ~nS~d: cd c:ban.tl core t.IlIII $]IedAi ~Ila l2Imad Clr &ilil ... b~ CIIIIII~

A major c.bjective Clf :~HiI_tistiCAI process control ia to quiclcly d~ the occurrence of assignable ca .... of process ,hifu; so Ib.t m.e.tigatioo at the prcc ess ""d eorrecdee action aUIY be undertaken before many nonconforming units are manufacrured, Tbe conn trcl chon is an on.lin.l"acess·lllllrulnring .. chnique widely used fa, .... purp""" Cootrol dlaru may lIlso be wed 10 estimate th. pat8lll.ters of a pro<lootion process. ond. through this \IIl.l1Im;"". 10 de"'rtni .. proc esa capabillty. Th. eomrcl chart may also provide \IIlarmaQOIl .,<lul in improving tae precess. Finally, remember Ib.at the _"",0) J!Oo) of "0- listical process coua-ol is tJ:It; elimination of variability in the process. 1r may nor be poo&ible to completely elimin • te variability. bill the control ell"" js an effecti.o "'01 in redUCing variability as !Duell .. possible,

W. now preseat the statisticol <on<eplS d,.. form Ill. basis of control chanl. Chop_ 5 and 6 develop Ill. d.toil, 0( OOOstrllo_ and use of Ille ,,,,nclard type. of control oharts,

4.3 STATISTICAL BASIS OF TIlE CONTROL CHART

4-3.1 Baoic PrlDcipte.

A typical centrol chari I • .ttow. in Fig" 4-., The control chart is • graphical display of. quality choriICWistic tha! bas been measured 0' colllpllll!<i from a sample venus the sampk number or time., 'Ibe chan conlains a tenter UOI!! lhar ~euts the Qverqe vsJue of me quality charaoteristic conesponding to the in-e01ltrOl state, (1bat is. ooly chance eeases ere present.) Two other boriwnllll lines, called the np~ cQnlr,~l1imit (UCL) and the lower COIItlUl limit (LCL) ..... abo sbown on me chan. These ,oo""llimita ore ebesen 'a Ibat if the pro""" is in """1101. ~orly all of the """pie points will fall between them, As long as <he pain .. plot within the COD<rolllmits, Ill. proces' ts assumed ttl be ill CO"!mI. ond !!O ",non i, nocess..-y. HOWI!ver •• point <hat plot. outside of tile ""Dlm1 limilS is Jeterpreted as evidence <hot <he P<"""'" i. out 0( <OIltrol. and investigaUon and carrective .0110. are requiled OJ lind and eliminace th_ .,.ignoble cauSO or causes responstble for this behllvior. It is eilStOD'UU)l to connect the sample poiDtS 00 the (;Q12.tJ;c} chart with .strailbt-line :s~tSi, so that it is easier fa visu2lize bow the &eque~ of points b.as evolved aver arne,

5ftpll: numbet:l ti;1TI! rE_J.\IN 4-: A I)'pital ~WI cMr1.

Even if .11 me JlQi.nts plot Insi<j" the CDDW>llimi~. if !hoy.bob .... ;" .. ~JJ~JiE. cr nO",lIDd~,& th." ~i' could be an indication th$.!!!~~, Far example if I 0 last 0 poiniSjiioiied'bOYe"tli.·O<)ntu tin. but below,me. uPP'" contrOllImit .. d <mly 1W9, of tile.. po!nlS plooed below the center lin. bu, above th. Iow.r colllrolllmit. we would be very ,u'picico, tha' ,amethil)V"" wroog. l.f_lht..~ ~vean"' .. ntiaUyrandOlllJw.rn.M.modsforlook· Jng fOt :scquencesortiOitrmdom ~pptilffijg' co~trol charts as, til aid in dew:ting outrof~CODttOl conditions. usuiilly, there is a reason wby II. particular nonrandom pattern appear. on a OOIltrol chart, and il it can be round and ellmiliated. Pro, ... 1"',. forman<e con be improved. This ,apic is dtscussed further In Socdo", 4-35 ""d S-2.4.

1'b<", is a cla.e ""'I!l-C<lio~i'!'M-OOnlrol.~~!!!~Ji!lg. Ta mustrllE this ronnectjco, sUppose-tbatrheva-l~an!istn}'jg,. 4-2 is the semple BYetIlge i, Now. if tIlo cuneo' volu. of X plots between me. OOntrol Ilmiis. we coocIndo mat me PfO"I'I' mean..is..W.~ •• 1 to some )'Blge "" On !he olller bond. if j exceeds either CODtrollimit. we Conclude that the process. .m.e.sn is~ is. it js eOIl B.l to some ",a!ue tl! ;.!. J1o- In a eecse, t:be:n, tbt control chart U a tESt of me bvpcth .. ~i' Jhat!he p~ I, tn l.!!Otuti' S1atistical ,o!ll!Ql ..... ~tl1i1HIl ... COIJllpI H!"iI§,i'!'9umI'D'IlI1~ticaloontrol,and.JlQiru:]l_at. . 'de theco"lIal ElIl!l is' Ie" ~~ al,tattsti~ ill!:. This hypothoiSos _g fro.mewo,k is useful in IIWIY WlIy s.: ~ scree differenc.es in vie.wpoint between contraJ cha:n:s lind bypothesis. tests. For c;umple, when teging~t~tieal h.ypo.~ \\Ie. usually dJuk tb~ validiry of mumpdoru. wben;;as conrrp~ d~t cJepwrrnres from ;m ~.stAte of statistical ceerrot. In gen. eraJ.. we ebould nor \Vo:o:y teo mnch about assumptions StX:h as the form at the distabution Dr independence ",b .. we m applying control cham to • P"""'" to roduco "";,blllty and acbieve statistiC.tl contr(l~. :FW'th~o~, an assignable cause C.an resull in'~y differeD! lJIP'" of shifts in the pmew p_. for example, Ill. mean <>lIlId sbift instanl:lr neously to • new win. IIIlCI remain there (thi, is somedmes called. sustained sh1ft); or It eourd shift 'brupcly: bot Ib_ assignable coos. could be .oo.t lived and the mean CQlild then Ietmu lCI its nominal or tn-ccneer vah)~:~ or the a.sSigc..abhl CBIISC eonld result in a steady drlfr or trend in Ille volu. of the mean, Only tile sustained ,biiI tu. nicely within lbe usoo) statistical hypothesis tating .model,

0"" place wbere the hypothesi, ... ling fr""""I.Ii< is usdul i! in analyzing the p.rfor","""" of • control 'bOd, For oxornple. we may think of Ibe pmhobility m..t.l:1'O. I erro<-ct.tbe.CCIltroJ.<:.~hldin.g.-<be.~.ben.iW~n· ![;!Il. and the probability of "'pe n emJ, of me control chart (C<>nOludlng..tb .. prooe", ;, to ,0DlroI wboo it is ,...uy 0." of eontrcl), It is occas:iooaUy helpful to us. the "P"raIinKehat.eto"'tic ,."... of. coo""l chart '0 tli!pl'Y i", prDbobillty of type Il .... OL 'Ibis would be "" inllicatioo of til •• bility of the conJrol Chart to dateot proc ess sblfu: 01 diff ere nt magniltJdes. This can be 0( value in detonninlng wbidl type 0( oonirol "bart to apply in certain silu3tiOBS_ For mere discussion of hypolhe!is tesli1lg" the role of statistical th,e:OIY. IIIId conttol cbarts, see Waodall (,lOOO).

Th iIlll!!rate the preoodlDg ideas, Iv. iN ... examp!< of • control cbart. In """';1lO ndoctor ~ an jmpcrtanr f,oocalioo Slep is pIIololithagrll):lly, in which • light sensitive pl>:l_t material is ,,!,plied to the sill""" _. the cit<:uit p.ttorn i. exposed on the mist typically through the use of high· intensity UV llgllt, ..,d tire .nwllllled resis: maerial re moved throngh • developlJlg pJOCUS. AJ!u <h. resist pattern js delinotl, the ontlorlying material is reuto'Ied by either wet cllemical or plmn, otching. " is foidy t>'Pi9'l ttl .

~1\~ j' v ~1)~J.L~I1J. c-v i I.: =:'. ,~.';::, i{C~. ':'.'1 s s-

~ 'IT. t.Cl:~f.,J,~' !.'l t{!ljrq}J .d..".: 0;. ,~.~~

,j

I'>

l :z: .9 4 ! !! ., !. s 'tOll 1213 !-U.s.11S Pl.8L93) Simplel'lurnbir

Jlpn +J I CIII'II1rOI dllrt Ibr f1Qw widm,

fullow de;'.lopmtJlt 'lim. herd-bake PfOCI'>' to inc_ rosis! ._co and .rctJ lCSi •• ~. An important quality cbota<:~1iC in hll!d bake is the flow width of the , es is" • measure of bow mucb it oxpaod$ due to !be baking p!!lCeS'. SlJppooo tho< How width can be ",.ttolkd at • me", of 15 microI>s. and il is known that <bo SUIOdud deviation of !low wid!h i, O.IS nnerons. A COllIrol chart for tho """'ge flow width is shown in Fiz: 4·l. Every hour, • 'ample of live wafer ... tolo:o. !h. ".1Oge !low width (,>J competed, and;C ploll<d on the chert, Bec..,.. this co""ol cban Illilizes !be sompJe """,,age;C to mooitor tho process mean. ills ","oily called 1Il;C control cban. Note that III of the plottod potore fall Insid. the ocnanl limtrs, ,0 tbe ebert indic""" that <bo proccsl i. considered to b. in , .. Iistical COll1InL

tb assist in uDdel'sllllding Ill. statistical tom of this oonIrol ehart, """"ide! how the conrrollimits were de.femLined. '!'he process mean is 1-5 microns, I!nd tbe process standard de.i'~on·u a ~ a.15 miQ'OO$. Now if ,amples 01 si7.t. " ~ 5 ..... _n, tbe .llIrulard devia. tion of Ibe sample average i' is:

a 0.15.

a, ~Tn="1f-O.ry,l1

Therefore. if <be process Is in contrOl with , moan flaw width of U >lli0l0DS. d!en by IlSlnll W COIlIraI limit WOlom to eseume <bat';C is oppr<uJmat.ly nOtmlllly distnbuted, we wocid expecr 100(1- a)% of the ,"",pie"...... i to fall betweeo U + Z.Il(O.0671) .and I.5 - Z"" (0.0611). W. will arbitrarily choose the <onslan. Z",,'o be J •• 0 tIlat the uppu and lower contrnllimits become

UCL ~ 1.5+ 3(0.0671) = 1,701~

and

LCL = 1.5 - 3{O.Il671) ~ 1.2981

I!! !hoW"!) On me coeeoj chart. "Ibese. lite typically cpJ],e.d ~I~~ lirnlt.s.

tNCKl:-dilM "!l8ml.'·re:!'er:S.O Ibl:-stao"ddc:vlllliDaot[he,n.tUd~pItIH~aa 1bc.1:l~(l& .. O',r), Mf r:t.B.,~ ckvI· Ilion ai dis qua$y ~lICrilitiC_

L

----------------------------------~~~

'Ibr: width of the oonrrollimits is invmely proportJ:ODaJ. to dle sample size n: for B given

···c··" co' 'i, ( .. 'JIl"I~pla ~ slgm .. NC",,!\>OI ~ho os ing <bo colltr(lilimi", is ."lw,.alent'.o ,.tt,!ng .p:.the crtt.;. -'; <i

icaI n>gion for testin~ !be hypo_is .

Ho: fJ=I.5 'H1: fJ~!'5

whe.e ,",z 0.15 is lmawJl. Esl.D~aliy, the 00011<11 chart tests this hypatbe51s repeatedly II dif!etenr PO""" ill lime. ThI: sitllilliao is illnstt,ttd _bicilly ill Fig. 4-4:

. W. may give .:genotaltnodel for ~ Let w be. """pl. SI.8~stic th .. me""",,, some qUlllty r.baract";,~. of interest, aruhuppp'. tho! the m ... of w ~ and the standard deviaticn of w 01, ~ Then the """tet: line. <be upper ccptrol limit, ~d '!be law", contmillmir become

(4-1)

Centt9' line -=' Iiw __ -.

LCL = ~.:. L<rw~

---

wbcrc- L is the Udistanc~" of the contrOl limits fr!P" ~txpressed-in-.stmclard d ... i,uon unitt. This 'S=al <beary at coetrcl cllans Wag first proposed by Will"" A. Sb.whart, and ·contral <bam d ev eloped occordioS 10 these principles "'" oftell ,aIlod Sh.wllort control ,barts.

Tho! C01lll01 cbart is • device foc de.scnDing in a pt<dse mllI1lJ.er...,uy wh,t.;' meant. by ".!isticlll control; .. sech, it may be "sod in • vadety of way a. In lIWlY "'plic!'!ionJ;, il Is osed fur on-line pt:oc"" .."....;nan"" Tha. is,.oample d.tJL.ate cotreered """ uMto Con' ",.'" til. calltml chart.:md if th. """Ple..><IIlu ..... f-?fsafrhll·witbin~a¢ do nat.~~~' ...... ~o.per.t-..ey..the- .. is·in·coutte!·.Hbc.lco<el.il)d\<;."'d

OI5tr.lblt!fCIIIDj fndhildUlI

mIiUIIrM'.tI'iIl~ t.larmill ... _

,111"'1.5 anill _ 13' ... 0,15

by the cbart_ No.e that we UlHy be lneeeered here. in detmn1n1ng ho'h whtibu th~ past data COITle from • pro, ess tho[ was in control anIl whetber furore 5&llIp1 es from 1M prD<CS5 indicare srntistical CCDttcl.

The most imporw" we of a conlrol chan is to imp"''' the proc ess. We b.", faD""' th ... ger.e<ally,

1. Most precess .. do I." operate in a state 0[ s .. Ii.<Ue>l con".!.

2. Cooseqoemly. the mulino and."""u.. use of control clJ_ will iden1ify .. signable caus es. Iflhese ceuses eon be eliminmed from the """""S. varW>iliry will be reduced and Ille pro cess will be improved.

TIW pro"",. imprevemwl a<:tivity usll1g the ctIIlrrnl clJan is i1Iustta..a in Fig. 4-5. Note

that '

3_ The eomrol cbon wm only delect .. sigollble eauses. Monagem." .. Opo!1.!Dt, .. d engtneertng arlioD will u.sually be necessary to eliminate the assigoab1e causes .

. In id ea 1ifylrLlI and otimlnating ... ipable causes. it is important to find the nod"dyi., rOo!

Caus!! of cbe problem and to anact. it. A cesmedc solUtion will nee result in any teal, 1(lllg· term process lmprovemeat. Devcloplng an effective sy.st-eD1 for corrective I1(:UCIl. is M. ~seDtiaI component Clf an etfec.tiYe SPC .imp:leln.en£atioD..

A vel}' impo~. C<lWCu.. ",rum proce!.~c;_ with con",,1 chan ... ge Is the On!-of~lI:IJbActlon Plg_n or OeAF. An OC~ is • ilO'll .. cl"'d '" "",tbase<j_ ~~.npri~.eq......, of actiri~ must I"". pi""" fo\JPWin:: lIle cccarren~QCliJ.Wti"~t. TheSe are usually ool..oi-CCDlIOl lipilJj from the. C:ClDtroJ chan. The DeAP ooosist.! of chE@ai"u. whlcb or. paton!!!! as sign.bl. eanses, and urrl1i.ruuoT.S', which jilT: "mons taken 'n tr!,so've eM- out~f--conttol condltion ...... bapefuUy by elintinlCloa the .. signable cause. It .. very impo rtan 1 "'at the OCAI' 'JI"iJlfy as comple .. ... r " jlD>.ible of obeckpoint! and tmnin",,,,,", and tha: _ be arranged in an ooler that facUi ..... process dl agnostic activi<les. Often. analysis of prior failure modes 0[ rho process and/or produe! can be belpful in designing this •• peer of the OCAI'. FurIil:rmore, an OCAP is a living dMtment in IhI!. sense that it will be. modi..fied over time as more lmowlodge IIIId underslanding of the process i. pined. Consequeouy. wben • conll:O] chert i. inrrodneed, .. initial qs;t,f •• ould ICCOGIpBny il. Conrrnl..oJn>r1s.llrithouUP OCAP ore Dot~~~~'_a~~~~_~;n~.!lt tool.

Imj)IMIOl. <IXI1J~tlhll

"" ..

Fiau~.' PlOO!j! imp1lftll!lt;n.I ~ 1M I~O[]illUl e!lan..

JiI'P 4-' 11u!; IlUt-(lt·~tI~!·aulCiI!l p~ (OeAn fw me. lJ;uiI-WI! _ palCe5L

i

I

The OCAP for the hiird-b"". ptoocss i.! shown io Fig. <\-6. This pro cess bas two eontrollable v.nib! es. telllpel8lure and time. In !his p<OCeS" the meen fiow widlb i. me"'!rued with an x COOlrD] ch art, and the 1'1"""'" variability !< rnonit"",d with • c:ootIOl clJart fur the range. or an R chart. Notice thar II Ill. R cbart exhibits an eet-cf-ccmrol signal, opaating pezsonnel are cIir=d", c""tact proc ... en~g bnmedialOly.lf lb." connol chart exhibits III oUl-of""oo",,1 signal. operat"" ore cIireaed to cheCk prooe<s ,emog' and c.libratiOll and then make .dj1lJtnlel!lS '" _"'lUre in on efflX1 to bring the ~. bock into. stare 01 contl1)L If these l<ljU"",.." ore uasuccesstul, P"""'" OllJlneeriog per-

sDirne) .are oCQDtacted. .

W< may also ",.lbe 00011:01 chan: .. an .. _, device. ThaI Is, !Tom • eootrol clJort that I!.1<hibits ... 1isril:aJ '",,11:01, we may .. timat" =tI!n (l!<'<OS' parameters. suca .. tho mea:n. """drut! devi.~on, frscticn nOllConforming or falJou~ aoo so forth. 'l'i!"'e .,tim.1:S m.y !him be wed ID dotennmb lbe eapabllity of the process 00 pcduce oa:ieprable plOll_CIS. Such P rece SH.pablllty .tm!; .. bo"" oomiderable impact OD mllllY managemenl

I

"dsion problems tim, oeccr over tbe prodoct cycle. ;"'Iodlng mm 0[ bu~ d.cjs;o .. ·. pl"" and process .i:mprovemenu that: reduce process variability, and cantracIIIBl !lI.gr!eIJlenC5" w.ith ;

custo",.,. or vendors regarding product quality. .

Con",,1 cherts IIlllY be e]will.d into two general ')Ill"'. If the quall<}, dJJIrac.msti< can be .Jlleaaured and expressed as III number OD rome continual! SCm of measurement, it is usually called a variable. In such CIIISC:S, it. is COJl\leoiecl to des:c::ribl:l the quali EY eherectetistic wlth " moIlSill'< of e .. 1rlIl _cy md • measere of vari.bili<}'_ Control ch.,.., for central 'endoocy and vm:!oblli<}' "'" cDlloclivoly called vnrIahles ce orm! charts. The i chart;" !he most wid<ly used eben for controlling cenIrlIl "",deney. wbI!rUs charts based on either the umpl. range or the sample ,Iondarrl dOYj.tion ere used to colllml process vOIiabili<},. Cootrol charts fur vari.bles ore ~ se d in Chop .. r S. Many quality caeacteri:stic.s lire net meeseee 01l a continuous. .scale or eveD ill q_utmd.!ati.ve scale.. In these IClSes., "'" may judge _ unit of prodact aa either cooiarnWog or IlO.confumdog On ine basi. of whether or not It possesses certain al'D;ibllt~. or we nuy count the ntmlber of nonconforroities (defects) appearing OIl a uni, of pr1ldllCL Control charts for &1lOh quality cbmcwj.!lic. = called "trib.'" control charts ond are discusol!<l in Chap"" 6.

M important fEtor in _I chart usage ;, the design of th. control charL By this we mean the selccl10n 01 the 'ompl • .m, OOIlttollimlt!. ",d fr ..... ncy of sampijn8. For =ple, in til. i obart of Fill. 4-3. we 'p"'Uied • s""pl. ,ize of five me._n", tbree<ipna e<>nIroilimil!. and the sampUng freqoem:y to be = hour. In most qllabty-COOlroI problem,. it is IlUSlO"''''Y to design the eoeeet Cb81'lIlSiDg primarily SIlItistical considern~o ns. For eumple, we !mow that in="'ing the sample size will decre ase, the probability of type D error. ""'" onbanclng the c.hart', ability to de!eCt '" OOl-of-oootrol "&to. ",d 50 fottll. ne".. of stoJiSti<w crit&i. sueb '" these along willl IncIiJSttial experience hos led to _II guideUn" and procedures for desiinlng control cnerts. These po>et>d11res usuaDy coosider cost fat:tOR only in 8J] impllcit manaet'. Recently, however, we have begun to examine control chan design £rom an economic point of view. collS1OOlitg explicitly me eest of 'ampUn8.1""" from aliowlng defective prodnct to be prcdeced, and the caslS of ilwestigating out-of-control signals tll., .,.. really ·'f.I!se o1smu."

Aneth", impormnt ""nofdenl!on in <OIlIr<>I cbart ... ge ill the we of .. rl,bUlty ...-dlibilOd by tho process. Fill. 4-7 pre sen w dlltl from thr", different proces'''. Figures 4- 7. and 4-7b ill11!ttate ... denary beb..,; .... By !!lis we mean .that !he prnce<. dAta YIIlY around a fiXed mean in • stable Or predictable manner. ThIs :i.5 the type of 'behl8.viot that She",bart impbed was proccced by on iD-oontroi pro cess,

Even a corlSOIY ~xaminatian of Figs. 4-1a and 4-7& teveab: some important Wff'ereaces, n. dor. in fig. 4,7 a are unco=l.t.d; that Is. !be ob,,,,,allon. give the appearance of havills bee. OraWD at random from •• tabIe popu",~oo. po ... "" • normal

,o~

" ~

10

o

50 100 150 2.tO

::~

~""

" o

50 lCO 150 200

,0)

'liilUc.Il 0:1&7 DMI ItlWIIIIhrui di11irlft! ptOC:lll!Id, (P) SWiol1llf}' ar.d ~JI!ld (W1'Jl1IfI !'1c;x)" (b) StriGol!l7' DIll' ~1,I.1~B[Cd.(t"lN'ClI'I.t1i1IoIlIlQ'.

.'

I I

L

distributioo. This type of data is referred to by lime series anaIys~ .. whll' noise. (Time,.ne..anaIysis i:l .-_liclo.of statistic. devoted e~~lusively to 'lIIdying ",d ,nndellQ(! ~:;_. .. mie."'" dalL) In Ihl:; typ e. of precess, the order in wblell the da .. occur does not tell OS moch Ib't is useful to analyze Ibe proo..,. '" olb..- woo-d s, me POSt ""' ues of the dat:a II< of n" help i. plWionng ..,y of me 1\1_ ""'ues.

Figure 4--7 b ilJ.osttarea StatiOtlary but .IIutDcol"I'elated prlJlCeSS deaa, Nonce tblll~ suecesstre Obser\llltiOilll in these dar!! lite dt:pm4ent; that is, a valne above till:. mean tends to be foDowed by "",ther value above tbe mean. where ... value bdow tbe me2n is usually· followed by "",Ill .. S1lCb val ue, This producei • data sedes mat!w a tendencY to move·

in moderately Iona "rues" OIl om.: sid. of !he_mWl. " .'

FiiUf< 4-7, illustrates nuoot.tionary variation. This type of process d." occurs frequently in tbe chomlcw and ~ocess irIduotli",_ 1'101' that the process ;, Vfir'j 0 ... ,..,1. in that it drifts or "wan<lers" about withou' any sense of • , ta ble or fj"d mean. In ntaoy in"rumal setdDgo. we ,"boo. this type of bettavior ~ using engiD.eriIig process COntrol (wch as feedback control). Thi, approach to I<1ICes' control is requi=I when tb.ete are fElOn that o1foct!he p"""'" that cannot be stllbilizod. such .. onviromnenllil wriables or properties of raw matcjal!- When tbe control soh,"", I, effeotiv e. the prOCeo' outpUt wiD "ot loo~ like Fig. 4-ic but win hopefIllly resemble eithe: Fig. 4-1. 0< ~1b.

Sbe.whartcoorrol chartS are most effective wben the. tn-coutrol process datil look like Fig. 4-7", By !his we mean Ihil the cllarncan b. deSgned 'a tho, theirp<db_ is predictable and Ie""nable !Xl !he .SO'. and thll they ate effective in reu..bly de...,1ing oat-ofCODImI ccndidons. Moo' of our discussion of control charts in this chopter and In Chapters 5 and 6 will .. """'" th.t the in-contrDI p:acess da", Of" otatiOlJ;Uf and onccrrelated.

Wilb some 1Il0dific3tioD'. sn."hart control charts 0110 other types of co"",,1 ebern can be appli.d to ou!Xlcone!atod data. Wo disc",. this in more detail in Part ill of the book. We alsO discuss &edbrl control end the use. of SPC in SYltems Whe;l'e feedback eonrroi is ''''Ployed in Part ill.

CootroLcbaii. have bod • long hiltDry of use in U.s. induslri., and in "'my o1fsbcre industries lIS well. There are B~ least five reasons for their popullllrlty.

1. Control charts ore a pl'oven I.c!tnlqu. for impro..". prnd.,~.ity. A sueceesful acutrnl obart program will reduce se rap and _ork. whiclt are tbe primary productlvj<y kiIl..-. in any opCllItion. If you reduce SCfBP and rewcrk, then p1nduCliYity Iccreases, cost deere asee, and prodru:tioD capacity (ml!aslmd in tho number of gaDd ptIl1S per 110m) ;"creases.

•. Control ,barlS .... effectf-ole In def,c' p""",Hon. The cceeoi chart help. keep the process in c_ol. wbicb is consi".", wi'" the "do it Jig"! the tiro! lim," philo""JIby. It ts never c1teoper to sen OUI "good" units ficm "bad" UIIlts later on ~ it is to build it rigb' initially. If }'au de 00' have offwi •• process coatrol, you are paying someone 10 make. a DOllCOnfurming product,

3. Caul"l cbam p"",ent mmece.....-y pmc .. , .dj"'tment. A colllmi cbart can dLS'ti.DgllLSh between background noISe. and B]mormll vaIiat.i..J:n; 00 ather dt"\'i<::e inclllding • !ulman apontor is .. effect!>e in making !hi! di.stinction. If ~= OP'!'II"" adj." the process !w.d OD periodic teSts ullt.lar..d 10 • control <bart 1""=' they will often overrelICt to the background noise and mal« ~needed .djus=t •. These unu .... ,"'Y o;lJus""",,, can octually '''''It In • d,renoranoo of pro:.es:s pedhrmanre. In other words, Ille oontrol clJ.art ~s: consistent wilh the "it it i'D', broken. don't ~.x Ir' philosophy.

4. Control chans plm'ld. d1.~"",d, Wo ....... flon. Frequendy, <he patteni of JXli:nts On me control chan will C:ODEalu informiuion of ~.l.gnostic: value to an o:<peri~ "p.n,o< 0, !IJgineer. l'his Worm.tion alIaw. <he imp!em<nration of • <bonge in <he P'OCes' <hot impnwes irs pea"""""",

5. Cobfrol eharts providt Information about precess capgbillty. The C(]n'lrOl ebart p<OYi<le:! Worm.tio •• beet <be .slue of lmpcrtem process panune<= and their ... blliry over tima, This alIaw, "" estlma.oo of p,ocess capablliry to be mad .. 'T'l::ti5 information is of eemenccus use to product end process designers,

Control cban:s are amDng ml! most important maIllgetnent (0£\1101 rools; me)' are IS imp<>""'" as '0" control, and ma,ertal 'OOltro,L Modern camp""" <echooIagy has mod. it easy to implement cencol chMts in any fjrpe of proces:s~ as data -cclle:tiOI1 and anaJysis can be perfenred on I. microcomputer or 8 local area netwOrk. terminal in real-nme, onnae II <he "",k """u:< Some .dclifiooal guillelines for imp<emOllting • control chart pro. gram are gf • ee at <he .n~ of Chap"'" 6.

4-3.2 Choice of Control Limits

Specifying <be control timits i.! one at the oritic.J ~i.iall5 thaI must b. ma,u; In design. ing • control <ban. By movIng ~ con!!Ollimi~.~ fr<>nI.W',uter tine, we d eereaee ~r-<h .. Is, <!!e.~!~~ ~.!!':I {ailing lII;yood lIle ~\!:gllimi_l!, indi· oatiol! an1lUt.40<:0nttol.c.o.di~_"!\l.~.l'o.4!'ig"abIH"""'""""",,. lfuw ever, ~ in _ r . w' Ills ; ro ... .ttruiJJUifJi. . -that iO .... tlJ!t!YJ!; of :!I.E"'or fi1iingb~w~n ~_9!1.n.!!"~~ml'" \V~_t!J";pI)le- i.!really OU~I.lfw~ ~lr01.liatili.2q .. r <0 <h. cellIer llne: the oppcsire dfec' ts obrol"":'!: .'l1'..!..p-!.Juif . .<i'E!': 1 OlIO' " incRased, while lIle rlsk of !ype 11 emn- is d."' eas ed,

• '-FOi'-dj'-j eIiart shown in Fig. 4-J, w_ furee...lgm. crmtrcl umits wore used, if we

.. sume that <h. fiow width U oonnally dlstribuOOd. w. find from <he ,WKIard OOI'IllAIlllble that the pobabllity of 'YPe I ener i.! 0.0027. nat is. an inc<>ru<:l "",-of 'COntrol ,i gtU!I or false alarm will b. generated in only 27 0"' of 10.000 paintS. Ftmbenno re, me pob.bUity that a po.int Eaken when tb~ process is in control win exceed the three-s[gm.a limits in on. direotiOll only i. 0.00 13~. In.stead of .pecifying <be COIl ttollinill as a mUl~ple of <h.

• randJird deviation of:t, we coUld b ••• di«ctly chosen me rype I error probability and <a1- - cUlAt.d <he corn$paoding conttCllimi'. For .. ample. if we ~ • 0.001 rype I error probability in ane direction; theIl tho appropriate mulHple of <he Slandard dev!1Ili0ll woold be 3.09. The CJ)n<rollimi« for the:t clwt would thea be

__ .

-

UCL • J..j + 3.0~(O.0611) ~ 1.7073 LCL ~ l.5- 3.09(0.II671J -l.2927

These _~ollimi," are u.u.JJ~ <alIe<l 0.001 p"'babi'~' ljmits, al<hough <bey shcujd lDg· ic.Jly be coiled 0.002 probability limits. beCause the ",cal rlok of malcing i 'YP' I eecr i. 0.002. Th ere I' ooIy • ,Hght d!lference betwteo the two JlmjOl.

Regerdles. of the dislribution of <he quality characTeristic, it is ,,_ practice io lb.

Uoired S~ to dererntine <be c<JnllOllimiu ., a mnltiple 01 <he sWdard deviation of lb. "a.l1.stlc planed 00 <he cbart. The multiple osually chosen is th«e; benee, three-sigma 1lIni<s are customarily ""'ployed on conlrCl enarts, ~gaa1l." of the rype of chart employed,

In the Unlred Kingdom and pam nf W •• rera E\lrCIjle, probability limits are used, witb <be &taIl.d~ probabi~ry l.voI in each dixeotloo being 0.001.

We. typically justify <be u se of three.siJll1ll con"ol UmiOl OQ <be basi. !hat !hey give iood =Its io ~.M=er.1n many r:ase:5, the "'!" distribution of <he q"eli<y <bar· actoristic i, "",1m""", well ene_&!> to compute .. eC( probability liatits. Ii the distrib.tiOll of <he quality .baroc<orislic ls reaso.ably approximated by <he normol d!5ttibutlon. <hen <he:e wiD III; Hille diffemot:c between thr •• ·.is,,,. ond 0.001 prol>abiliry limits.

~ Uml" on Coot:<>! ChIm

SOIll< analys<s "'&8"" using two sets of liatits on OOll!!Ol chart s, such .. <hole shown in FiJ,. 4-8. The octer lim:im---s:.ay. at three,-s.igmll.~ the tlSLlBl flcUonjiuli.1Sj mat is. when a point plots outSide .of chis limit: a'$eQCCh tor 8J] Wiplble, caLl.Se. is _~ and eccecdve acuon u tai<l:Ii if necesmy. The inner 1lmi<o. "~y al two-.s~ wominK 1lmjt...ilfFig. '-8. we ha"" 'bOWD <h. rII= .. ill"l' '!!'pel' 8M lower C<m!!Olllmits for Ibe ir:Jlon for flow wid<h. The opper &nd lower "ainin, 1imi1' are Ioi:ate<,l "

UWL-1.5 ... 2(0,00611J :-l,6'l42 LWL~ l.S-'(O.0§21)~1.36!ji

When prababllirv 1fmjt!! are llse.(lI-tb~4CJicnJ:imi~__ge.~.9!!b 0.001 ~ ~.I!!d ~_ W.lrot in,g ~<§..are O.Q2!lIiInful.

If.9l!.' gr !!!.~.E.~~~"'Jb .. L~n..l.'!tl>lts .... ,£~.)i!!: C.OD.<rQ!J!rni.<.I. or very c'''''tm!l!l.!£~ liJ!!il. W!l,~o!!lIl.~;..suWiciqusJhot the~.!IE'J'~~"~~9llg pr~~<il,Y 'Ooe Po.Slble ",Hon to rake when !IJj, cecun i. tc inc.ease <he sampling. fiecjtiOney and/Or the sample size 50 that mare infumWlon ebom <he process can be ob<aiDed qoicidy. P<ocess con!raI schemes th .. change lb e ..."pl. size .. dlar the sampling freq"eney d.opendina: on <he position of the eunant swnple value ee called odapti,. or vonable .. mptlng Interval (or .. riable sample me, eto.) $ebOIne$.· These IllCbniques ba.,." 111; ee ase eI in p<&Ctice for utany ~."'. SIld have rer:ently been .mdi,,' eete .. i~y by reseaeebers in <he tle<d. W. will discuss thi. <ecbniq"" again in P .... m Df tl\i$ boot.

The ",,~,04...,...;pS-~£IIll jncm .. e.!M-,eu.~<b.,c<J"""J4l'!lt;;lh".i,.J' can olloW'<hi'""conttCI cb~1Q. sil!W .. AI!!iJIln.lho..pr"",,~O&qwcidy. One at their di.! .. advmi. ~ 1nar:'ih~y ~II:Y be"confuslna moptiifuig personnel. This is Dot UJUB!lY a senOUS oejection, bewever. and numy practitioners USe. wa.m.itJg limits routinely on control .. charts, A more se:nous objection is duu although the use of warning limits can imprav~ the

,.I -Ll:L.l.'O,' 1.7 ,,1. "

!:: b.n I ~ 1_5 2.1,3f1

1 .• ·l\Yt.'.-'

1.3 .... 2

L.'

~L1-L..L.'-'-'-'-L..LJ

P,1.QSS mYfI (rrIlr::r'On!Il

FLjlPn4-' OIpfImnne~~I"'IIC$tc.-I!tJ:fd1art.

SflmIIllJlumbar

Firwre 4-i Aa J C:"8(t .... iIla (Wo~n:u wtmlll! timibl.

sensniviry af the chm. thc.y Bl.:so result ill:tD 1~~~~k_~~rms. We will.dis- 0 esa the us" of ,onsitirlDa tuI<. (scell es waming lifuio;) more IIIoro. ghlj< in 5ectl"" 4-_3.6,

Sample Size and Semplin~ Frequency

In desisnIng a ""0",,,1 <:ban, we Ill." >peel!)' both the ""'pl, • ..., '" us •• nII the fro.. qllfU~" of samplJJl2". lil gtneral, ~er eles, will rna" it M~i1[;ttJ>rt small ~fts ~~ ~~, 1'h!s is ~~!ed in Fig. 4-9, wberl!; we belve poe cperanng er.cJeri.~o curve fOt <he", ooott m Fig. 4-~ bv";ow 'OI!lple m.... Note thot Ibe pm~'~UIty of det<CtiDG a e hitt fro", 1.500 microc, to 1_050 miorooo (!~r '""""pl.) inOlOaOOS as the sample si2e n mcreaaes. Whe.n clJaa!ci:ng the !ample sjze, W~ IDuS1 seep in mind ~ si:= of me shill that we He ttyiDg to eerect, rf ~~s shift is reletlyely large.. t.ben, we we ':!!JiIu.u"""Je--t,i~ m""..Jtios..tb" ,ViOll!!!.k employed if the shift of in!.,.., were lelauvely .omaU_

We mu""'o de,emllno til" frequency of 'lIIIlpling. The most desirllbl. simedon from the point of vi." of tIetectin~ shifu would be to .1Ike lorge ,=pies very fregucn~y: h0wever, (his is DSIl ally nat ~CiIlOrnieaIly fl!:iiI..s:ibl~ 'The i.eQ~ problem :Is Oil_I!; of ailocatin!!l; "mplinil eIf.rt. Tbat is. <ithu we take =ll .""",Ies "' ,bon interYiil. or lorger samples at 1o:J:Lgct in!crval:s. Cw:rcn!: Industry 1DCt..I~ tends ro :favor 5maDer~ more frequ=t SaJIL.o. ples, p.mirul"lJ' in !qh-vol"",e mOllUliioturiog processes, or w.oro • area; many I)'p"" of assig:n,lble C:IUs:t:s can OCCm. F'ilrthernu::Jfet as a.utomlUlc senrillg 'rmd measUrallem technology develops, ~ Ia be,o!!ling p ... lbie '0 glU~y increase 'OI!lp~O~ !Rquenci es , tnti:maftly~ evet)' lJII..i;~ can be tested as it is manufactured. Automatic meescremeot systems .. d microcomputers with SPC ,ofiwore .pplied ., til, work cen"'r for ttal-tirM oe-llne process concot i.o .., etIoaiv. way", apply "ati!1ioal process control.

Another way to e'Yaj,uate the deciSions Ttglt:n:lillg .sample. size end sempling fteq1lenc.y is through .. e _to run 1 •• {ARI,ho:t~""ttol-"I""- Ess .. tially, tIleARL i.! tile ~S. """'bOT of l!Ilints.Ihol..mu>t.ht..p1otted before a point i!!~_~,_~ ou~1 ,0"dIUoo, If !h. ]'1"00'" obs"""tioos are uncorrelarad, !hen for -lin)' Shewhott oootrol chart, tbt_ARLcan be eaIcnIoted oasily from

(4-2)

"b<"'~o:-EW_!_~~~'!!c~~_!,£nlrollimi .. , Thi! eq ua tion <Oil be =d '" eval .. ", <be perfot1llOnee of the OIl_I <han.

10 Illustrate, for tho xebart wi<b, three-siguia limits. p ~ 0.0021 is thol""bability that ill. single potn£ fBlls. omside the limits when the. peecesa l_,g i.n conrml ~, the liverage 1\\0 leoglh of tile ~ ~han wl>cJl !he PfOO"S' is in coetrot (called ARI..ol i.!

ARLo ~l~ 1 -370

P 0.0021

Th_at is, even if the process £¢mains ill COI1trOI, all, oot-oI-conttQl signal will be generated every 3'1Q 8et.nple.s. on the average_

._-,

The use of ""'"l" 'llllleogrhs to d",crt1>e !he po:forroanc' of <ontrel cham, hu beec

:j=~:l~~;:~ill-~'"~~~thi~~"'t~:l="~~~~4~~'~' ,

CoDsOqu.mdy, !hom."", two =ems widl ~ (1) tile atandard d.vi.Uon of <b, run length is vory I".. .... and 0.) <be &eOmettic dWribillloo is very skewed. so tho me .. of the di.ottibutioo (tho ARL) is act necessarily , -='f "typical" value of the ron Io.nath.

fur I!Xllmpl<;'comidet- tIlo S~ow~""j coottol ohm wt .. 1!1tee-,;&D>O limit._ Wl>en the _ Js en <»Otrol. we h"". noted th " P ~ 0,0027 and !he in-control ARI;, is ARI;, - lip ~ 1lO.0027 - 370, This is. the "'.." of the gwmetric Oi_tico. Now the ,,,,,,datd cevtanon Df.~ pmer.dc dislrlhudon is

~/p - ~(1- 0,0027) /0_0027 .. 370

That i s, [l)e !tanOol'd ~,tion of !be gecmeuie dislributioo in this case is approltim.o,ely equal ,o'its mean A!l.f ... "I~ the lICtIJal~ observed in pra'tice for tIlo Shcwb.nx 000- trol ohan will likely ""y oonsid.",bly. Puethenanre, for tho 8""'""trk dtstribmon with p -o,oon.!he 10 th _ ~O[l) percentiles ofdle distriOO<loo ate 38 and 2.16, respectively, This tneans thot appmxinWely 10% of the <On< the in-eo.trol run loIlgtll will be If.s. tIwI O! oqu" "' JS '''''plf.s and 50% of the time il will be less th .. Or equollO ~S6 ,,,,,ploo_ This oee ... ~ the geom.trio dI'tr:i~ut\on with P ~ 0.0027 is quil.O ,bowed to !he rig"'.

It is also occasion>lly oo",.;;m.~t "' exJ'IfW !he perform'''':o of the oootrol chart in terms or ito a'''.G" U.,. to sig!ull (,l.TS). If semples ere tateo at t\xM interval, of 11m. !hot iI1C h hour s a port, theo

(4-3)

cccsider the h!lfd.baire process discu ss ed _lier. nnd supposo we ere ,,,,"piing ""'WI boor. Eqnation 4-3 indicates that we will have a false olonn.abc<lt ev"'"l 370 Oaurs DO the

overage..'_ ,

Now O<>n!idex how the cOIltrol cbart perfo_ in de"'~ti"g 'blfis in the mean, SUppose we m; using a sample size of n =:5 md tb;;:!t wbeo the proCeSs goes out""Of coattol the m.ea:n shlfu to 1.72."i micmcs. From the _,ling <1wlIc«riatio curve in Fig. 4-9 we find tl)a.t if !he process meen is L 125 micnms, the pmllability of.'i fAIling between !be cootrollimits i.! _.<imatoly DjO, Therefore, p in equation 4--2 is 0.50, and !he ont-of-cantrol ARL (caIl<rlARL,) is

ThOlIs, the-oootrol ohlll1 wiU ""Julie two sa mples to detect tbe peocess shifI, on !he ",",'go. and since the tinJo inlOTval betw_ ,"",pie! .. h - L boo" the av oraie' tinlo required CO d.eL!Ct (his shift Is '

~

'-

l

ATS - ARL-, h - 2(1) - 2 bo""

:2Ic=a

Suppose that this is ~ceplable. because production of wafet3 with mean flow width of

1 :i2!!i mir;rons results .in excessive scrap costs i!tLd can re.sult i:n further upstream manu- .. f~,,:mring probl~. How c.M we reduce. the tilDl! needed to dereet the 0lI1-of-COIltrol condition'1 One rnelhod i5 to sample more fmiuently- For Uln\p~, if we sample every balf !lour. <h<n tho '''''l1li0 ,;m" to aignal for !hi< scheme i" I':I'S = ARL, h ~ 2(j) = 1; iIlO! is, only one hour will elapse (on tbe average) betWeen tbe 5hift and its derecricn. The second possibility is. 1.0 incIe1Se t.h~ sample slze. For ~arnple. if we use 11.!!! lOr Ihen Fig. 4-9 shows the! the probability of'X falling between the ccntrcl Iimits waea the precess mean i,l.nS micro", is .ppr.J<i",.toly 0.1 • ec thalp ~ 0.9, and from oqu,w,n4-11he ""t-of· CllIllml ARt Of ARt, is

1II.Dd, if \Ye Jlmple every hour, the avera.g.e time to silJl2l 15.

ATS = ARL,h = 1.11(1) = 1.11 bears

. Thus, the lu~r sample !!j~ would allow the shift to be detected abDut twice as quickly as the old """.!fit becaree impott"" to detect <ho shift ill tho (lIjlprorimalely):first hoor after it occurred, ,",0 c",nrol cban designs wOtlld worlc

Da1p2

S4mpk: Si2:C:: n'" :s

SIIlILplin.g F:r-equenq:: r!Yery haH" hour

.sllmpl~ Sn:e: 1'1'" 10

Sa.m~Dg mqllel3iey: t:'I'erJ hour

To am.'wer the. quesuon of :sampling fr~~~y more predsely. we Qli1st tm. sevEral fietors ioln otCOIlnt, illolurliDg !he cos of ""'piing. the lnssea OS!oclated with oIlowill8 Ill. process to operate oul of control. tht. rate of production, and the prob!bIDties willI which ~DUS types of process shift! cecer. We discnss 'V!Jioo:9. m ethcds for selecting an appropriate sample me md sampling fnquency for a ecnltcl chart in the. next four chaptt:rs.

4.3.4 Ratieaal Subgroup.

~A fundament.al idea in the: 112 of ~ntrol cbarts if. the collec:tion at s!MU)lc am ac;or~g "'.~bon_o_o!lc;l ~ ... 1i0D!.' ~~llP c~~ To iIl"str.« thi, <""""Pt, .uppose that we arc using an X ~Dntrol chart to Oetect changes in the process _tne:an. Then the ","onol ,,"bF'...'!iCOnco..i'1.'1'~ .thal subgroups or !_.l~.~'l\I!Il!!l.·Ilri""lo<;teMo.thoUf us..l8J.!!bl~ c::~~~ie:Drtien~thicliiili;~.for differences betw.ee"-SIJD~..wm..be._IIWi.~_\\!rulc: the. chance for [:ti:ffUe~es. !1ue 10 lhese. .a.~gnl!.ble causes .wlthln::a.s~ibgrt)up

wi11_ 0. ~.,,; . .

When co:o.trol charts art: applied to production precesses, the titn~ ordt2" of prodacdcu is EI 100lc:aJ bas.is for rationlll subgrouping. Even !hough time crder is preserved, it is 5tin pcesibje 10 form subgroops cmmeously. If s.cunc of the ob.!erVa.nons in the sample ar-e taken at the e.nrl of one shift and tm: [WlBining observations 2JtC. reken i8I the stan. of the neXt .shift. then IlD:Y dift"~ berwMn shifts might act be: detected. Ti.n1~ order is fte.. q"""lly • good "asi, for forming mbgroop. because it olIow. us to detect ass i~nabl. causes !hat occur over time.

1, ~ '-

-7: Two ll"'er.oI .pp~ (0 ccn!llrnl:Un,g ,..lianol .ub",,"p' ore ~ In tho first 2PP~, eace sample OQCISiSlS ofunits tba( were ptoduced &t the sene nme (or as ctosely togetmr as pc.ssible.). Idw\y, w to LAke I:o~e.eutlve units of productiDn. This

.p=<:lt.iv>scd."",""Jb<.pr;il!'.~ __ E'J[I"'''' of tit. COn ,

It 1IliniInilt'_~£~bili!V due 10 .. oigae.hluia" w'<hitL"--,"",pl<, and il ~~tBe~!!.~~~M~!m .. ~~_,itJ!s5i~able.caus~ ase presect. It al.s.o provides III better estLrndR: orme St!tJdud dl:-viarton of tID=: process in the case- of variables control charts. 11lSs approach to rational 501.lbgrouping lC.5.Serui.a.lJy gives II "enapahnr" of the prCICtSS II eJl:.h point in time where a :sample is oo1le:i;CfLi

Figure 4·10 ilIn>Iratoa this type of 'o:rnpling strategyIn Fis. 4-1ila we ebow a pro",,, for which the "",an ~ es a series of .. stoinod ohifts. and the corresponding 0"''', vadons ribta.iDcd from Ib.l$ precess at 'the points. in time. along the. hmizontal .axis, essoming th .. jive conseCtlti"" units are sclect<d. Figure 4-10b dJow1lhc i eo.trol cbart and an Rebar' (or rango ebB") for th .. e de to. Tho center Une and conIJ:ollimit; on the R ohllt ale ccnseucred using lhc reage of each sample ill the upper part of the figure (details will be gi_ in Chapter 5). N<>", <hot ahbo"gh th. proce se mCllll I, shifting. tho pro= "Ywbility is Stable... Pureermore, the wjth.in--sample me.IIISUIe of wriabiJity hi used ID consrruct me central limits an the x chart. Note that the.i' chart in Fig_ 4-10b has points OUI of txlntrol ccrrespocdiag '0 the shifts. .in tile process mean.

In the second approach, each sample oonsisl.s of units of product thin ate ~present&ti. ve of aU u.rd~s that heve jeen prodl.lCed .slrJ~ the-last .5ampl~ was. Men. Essentially.. each snbgroup ~s a raudOlD snmple or aD process output over the SIlIlpliDg interval. This. metlmd of nljticnal5l,lbgro,u~g is often used when tM. connl chart is. employed tCJ mW doc:isio •• _ the acceptance of aU unlts of prOduct lbat have boon prodnced since Illo 1"'1 ,ampl •. '" fa«, if tho 1""""" .1Iifrs to an oul-of..,ontrol ,_ and Ihe. back in c:onlrol again bl!tWltm .samples, it is 50tutiJ:'oe.s. argued that the first tnt:r..hDd of rational subgroupjng de:fincd ahCVI:- will be indf~tive against these £)'pes cf shifu, .and so tile seccec 0J'lh00 mUSI be used.

When the rational subgroup is a random sample of all uni~ produced over the SIn\· pIing w\t:rval, considerable. cere musl be taken ill inlupretfng the l:OJ\r:t:ol chBl.'1:.S. If lhe. pro, eas moan drifts between """"'" level, during tho ;nu:rval be<w"", samples, this may cause the flmgl: of (he observadons w:i.lhitl the: sample. to be tel.atively le:tge, resulting in

. wider limits on iIle:; cbart. Thi, acenasie is illusltated in Fig. 4-11.ln foot, we "'D oft en make .n~ pro""", appear 10 b.1n oI.tIstlal CDntrol just by ,tr.tchlng out lb. feter"at between Dbsen'stions in lb! .sample. It is .also possible fot shim in me process Illvet'A age to cause points on ill. control c:hart for the. range Dr .standard deviation to plot out of control. even though thete has bf!:en no .shift in P[Q~S vbinbillty.

There are othe.r bases for fanning r.ation.al subgroups. Fcraample, suppose a process oons~ru of several mllichines that pool theu- ampul into .a 1;amJrLQJl stream. If we sample from this common S«CIm of output. it will be very difficult to detect whether or POt some of the nU!lchm~ are OO( III coneol. A J ogital approach to rational 8ubgrnupmi. here Is to apply canttol chart: techniquoes 10 the output for each illdividual 0J>Chln,. Scm.1imes thi.s concept n Beds to be .a.pplied to ltifferenl heac15 on dIe :same machine, different work station.!; .. differenl operatofG, and sc fbnb.. III man)' situations Ihc rational. subgroup will ccnsist of a single Observation. This. situation or;OltS frequently in the chemical and process .industries where the quality t;bu8cten.sli"!: of the prodllt:.t ~e.s reJ.etivelysJ.owly MU:l. :5Bmples taken Vtty close lO~etheJ ill rime are virrus.Dy identical, apart from measurement <IT anolytical error.

.. «,

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"~

1 2. .3. 4. S Ei 7 .8 !II 100111.:1:

Tlfru: ,.,

:1 ~::,:::::::::

J Z 3 " !!I iii 7 I!I g 1Dll12

lim'

~,

Fli:IIN' ~10 TIle '''IL11)tIIJQt'' .IIpIlfiJlllCb to l1Iti(JUl !ubltJ'Ollps. [III) B~J\a"yi!)J'.o! IlJII! :p~' mW'i. {.Ill Cgmi~J IlDd R ton.tla[ cl¥lnl;,

~~ .. ,- .• <- ..

1 z :;! ... 15 6 7 E!I g 101112 n",

10'

ucc,!

~,., Ae A ,

- .. ~,. v V v\

u~100?:?\/s

] "2. :g " a 6 7 EI 911l111:2 11 ...

."

ll'1pe iII·n 11u: rmdolJl WllJlIi! ~Kb 11;1' rotiC1n!.l :ml1l1rrllllJ!I. 'l'Il BdIe'l'lg:r QI h: pmc~~ mdl!.ll, (h) OIt'l:tSpondij:le: i .. ml R. C'(]nnru dLaJu..

Th~ :rational 5iXJ.grDUP concept ].9 ver:y impD.tU.nL ~ prnpe:r selection of sBlDple:s requires careful oonsideration of ~ process, wilh !he objective of ob1aiDiDg as much useInl information as possible. frOID the t;on~l chart 1Iln.Al)l'si$.

4·3.5 Analyoio of P.ttem. on Control Cham

A control chart. may indicate an cut-of-control OOt'Ldltion eithe.t wben cce or more points fall beyond tile co.u-ol Iimi", 01 when !he plontd PO""" exhibit """. oollI>lldom P"""'" ofb,h.vilIr, For example, ce<»ide: tho if clwt sbcvn in Fig. 4-1:1- Althoogh a1I2!i points fa1I within !he eoetrol limits, the paints do 001 ind<:>Ie ,lOtiotioai control bee"",. their pal'

- tern is v<rj nonrandom in OppearlllC<. SpecificallY, we .0" that 19 of 2!i points plel below the center line. while only six of tbeill plot above. If the points iUt trUly random. We should expect ;II. mure even distribution of lh~ above Ilnd bdow the renter line. We alB D observe: thot fcllowiog the fourth point, five points in • row iii"" ease in magnitude. This aa.ng emen! of points Is calI!l'!_ ",run. Since the oIt.e!"~!i<>D' an; inc.-inS. We «mid cAlI t1>is • re_up. Sim:il.Irly. iiC"i)U~~MW.Wints i.!i cened a~, This ccnltOl cha.n has On now"ally long run up (beginning with !he _ point) and an un""oallY loog run down (bo~g with the eigltle.nth point)_

In pcrAl. we de~i cb~rwtions of ~.~~_tJ'F. ID addjtion to lDD5 Ill' and runs down, we "coeld define. the. lY'P'C! of obse:£va.tlons as those above. an.CI below the: center line, r!:.Sp~t3v~ly. So that lWf) points in a [CIW above: the center Hne would be. a run of length 2.

i

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),+,.,.-----,---::----:- .. ·- .... c .... :, .. , .• ~ .... "c .. - ... ; .. -." .,." .. ,_

~~Ir=== C;====.K?~. =1

l::!!i" S a 1 II 'lOU1~13141S Sl!rqplc!nr.,lmblr

l'1CIR't!4:U '·Mlchartwiibac.)'e.lKp~,

1 !. !!i i !II- II 13 l;!; 11 1!il21 232!

SampI,n!.llJ'ibir E'l1:I!re.4-U· ~l'cOlltrGI-chart.

·:::A IUD. of lCl:litii s Or more POEUlS has: a very "krW"·p.rDbability of cccareace in :II. random sample of points. Coosequently, ~ ty_pc nfnm oflength S Or mart is afr~guaL.ot~ out-of-cOnttQ[ copd.iti.DD.~F~r e:;Ii;iUllP}e., eight r:dn.!iet,ltive points on one !ride of

tho c",,,,,line may indio ere th .. tho iI"""'" is out of CODtrOt . -

AlthoUgh runs ere on imp.""", measure of ~om bebevscr en a ccutrol chart, oth., type, \If poi\orn!! IlllI)' aUo indid.1e III out·of-cODttoi COIIdirioIt, For ex ample. consider the·i chart iii Pig.·_4-i3. Note that tbe p1otW:) sample twera'ges e.xb:ibil .. cyc1k bebll\lior, y~ they 011 !Jill Within th e ccntrol limits, Sucb • ~ ,nay indicate , problem with the ~$11Ch as gpelllrnt f~tS&U~ raw material MlWeti';;h·at Or $fR!!!S tnUldup. and so ~ Althoogh !he pro=';' DO\ really out of_~.nlml,thl;-~oJd-"'~I'!0\"d by Oiliiim,fion or rtClncfion 0[1110 <,iMUi:.ifof variobmt\'-O.",rinJ.lbl~C)'cllc behavior (see Fig, 4-14)_

Th~· problem Is· ~ne of. pattnl1 ncognition-thar ts, recognizing systematic or nonfIIldom p.t1OlIl$ on Ill. cooriol chart and identifying the ""00 too: this bcb>vior. The ability to ~'!pf" • ]lIl"Ikular pattern In terms of ... ignabl. 00"'''' requires expenenee end I:llowleilge of the pr02o.., nmiis, we raest not only I:llcw1ltest3tiotical pnnoipl es of contrOl cherts, but we must aloo have a load underslM.dlng of the precess. We di5cuss. tbe inttrpretlltion of paltenis on oo.trol cherts In ecee dctoil in Cb'l''''' 5,

LSt 'I,[~L

,~,

, A ,
LSL • usL
1>1 Fttare 4-1El (d) Variab:l~hy 1Ifkh me ~u~ pillCl!:m. (1I) v.:iilbillq wiIb

lh~ qc.1k: ~1it~UmlaGIIId. '

::....-,.

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I \ / v "'.c .
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] :2 3 ,jj !!I e 7 .B 9 10 11 12 OSBlllpler.r1illlb.

F~ptl ",j...15 The. ~II. mtclrie ~ 'ZORe m1G" wilal du~ lin bit l'Qim,s .ll!gwiDf, I vicrll!ldoll of d&c mk 3.

Th. W.".." E1.0Iri, Handbook (l9~6) sugge!1S a set of dedsloo rule> for doI.cMg nonrandom pat:tc::nlS en coetml chuts. Specitically, it suggests concluding thal me. proccss is. out of cClrurol if ~tber

1. On. point plolS ourside dIe tru.-. .. ig;m. COUllO) limits;

1. 'IWo out of three consecutive poinlS Pi9' beyond !be two-sigma warning limits;

3. Four OlIt m fiv~ consecutive. points plot at ii distance of one-sigma or beyond from the center line:

or

4. Eigh( consecutive points plot on one side of the center llne.

'Ibo.se rules apply 10 one side: of the center line at a time. Therefore. iii. paint above the "pper waminS limit fonowed ;mmediatoJ~ by a point below the /awe waming limit would not signal an ccr-of-ccmrcl alarm. These axe. o~ used in precrtce for enhancing !he.sensitiYiI)' of """lID) <:bans. That is, tho u .. of eiese rul", con lIllow smaller P"""'" shifts to be detected more quickly than would be thl: case if OUt ooJy criterion was the wual three-sIgma oonn:cl1imh vioJatioo.

- Figure. 4-1.5 $DO'WS an x contrcl chan witb the oowJg.ma, two-sigma, IDd tbree-sigma IimiJs used in tho VIes_ E.Jectti< procedure, Note til" meee limits panitioo the conlIDl chan into three 'Zones A. B, and C OIl each side of the center line. COMI!:QUt:ntly. r.he Westem EJec'tIic: rules. are 050metimes called the :Z:[)Mj roles tor control charts. Ncte that the last four points fall in zone B or beyond. Thus, since four of five censeeuuve point5 t:'"(ceed !be o.NiJllllo ijmit. Ibe W es tem Eleclric proremw wilt """dude that !be panem is nonrandom 'and the process i.s WI of control,

4-3.6 Ducu.&1.t>n of S~tWng Rul .. for Control Ch0rt5

AIl ",oy b. galhefC<l from earlier se cuons, WlonU ctiIeri. may be applied 'imul""""",1y to a cDntrOl chan to dererm.ine whtme.r the process Js out of contle}, TIll: basjt: cr.ite.rion is one Or more pom cuteide of the control limits. The supplcmenllUy aileda are sometime:!; used mtccreese tie. Sf:nsitivity of the oonIl'ol charts 10 a small process shift so that \\I'C ma)i

1. an.:. or 1II0l!! pciJw. QLItS;cl~ of '1M cal'&uoIliII'Iiu. j 2, 1\1,.-0 of uiree cansl!.Clll:i~ poin'lS Mtsidl!: the

t:-Nn-s:i.a:rns. 'l.f4tDinalfrDiu bu! ltiU inrid!. the

COClrrol UmiH. We~tu.I!I

3. Four otfLVI!l GoJlIllCUOY18 p'*tts beyond !he ~:e

aoe. ... s:i:p1l&niIS,

AI, A NO or clllU COI\iCCllIiV1: points on oll.L!l ~idc of the CI!Ir.I!CIUne.

S. So: p~l!I in :a rD'I1I stcadUy iID:1I!IasUt.a 1M' d~uinll' '6.. Pifte!ill paun.! in 1l eew in ume C (both &.bow lrI.cl

below th.Itc:cmerUnt:.)'

7. FGuneelll pom't$ iJl :I row aIternBli;c, lIP and down.

fl. E.il!iht pcrLTlIB in I. roW CUI both :rides of Ute aml'U line , wid\ ClOII_e iEl zone c.

9. An WMlIUaJ or ucrumdom pa:£mrn in Ihe data .

to. oee or lIlIore poom' Dear a wamin& fIJ t:(lrltrOllLmiL

res pend more qulokly to the ... ignable ceuse. Some of tile .... ill%lng MIle! that ore widely used In practice. are show'tl in Table 4-1. For a good disr;_u$sion of some. of these rul"-,, see Nol,on (1984). Frequently. we will inspeCt !he conllOl chAtI: om! conclude that the process is Out of control if any cce or more of lhe ctierlB in Table. 4-1 ate met.

When several of these zwcnsidzlDg rules att applied simul1lUl~:51y. we o1tI!n usc- III graduated resp onse to ou~Q!':.<;QJI!!g). signals. Foe ."""",Ie. if. polru .''''",0''; • """",,1 limit. we would immediate-Iy be.gin lie sutch for the assignabll!. cause, but if one or two co'nseeutive"~t5 ~ce.eded only ~ two .. sirnu. warning liimlt. we might increase. the frequO!1Cj' of "''''Pling from everY hqlj;r_ay, to ev&y 10 m!Du, es , This '''''pl''' .ampllng rtspDIlse might not be 1$ s~vcte as a cornelert 3e&lJ?h for 1m as~guab]e caus~ bu~ !f ~-~ precess were really 9Ut of control, it woura give us a higb prnbamlhy of det.c.c:tlng t:his utcanon more qni~y than we would by mlUntaining the longer s,IU;DPJini interval.

In gene~[I:an:: shoul.d be exercised when using several decfsice rules simuJtaDeonsly.

Suppose that tbe MalyI' uses k. decision rule< and <hat cdterion i has type I errer probability <I;. Then tbe ovenlll)"pO I error or r_·alarin probab@1 for tbe'dcoisJwl.ba5<d on

allkt-eJt5Ls "

i

j

l

·1

~

i

1

!

(4-4)

provided that alU.eec.isiO!lrulcs are independent. Howcvu.lbe independence m3surnptioo Is not volid with tho usual ~sidzing roles, Furthermore, tho valu. of <I; i. 00,1I1w.y. cll:uly defiued for the sensitiring rules, becal.lSe tll~ rules involve sevual ob:sen'a:nons.

Champ and Woodall (1987) invostiga<e<l tho """'.~. run I .. glh p,rfo""""",, for tho Sb~whart control ebart with vanOIl'S &ensiti:ting niles. 1"b.e}I fiumd that the. use of these rules does improve the ability of thJ=; control ~BJ1 to detect :SIirlalllU miftsi bur the mCDIl<rol aveng. run longth can bellUDston<iilly ~.dod. For oxample, asa uwing Dldepeod en ,

proC¢.5Zi1 data and using iii Shewnan ccotrct cbm with the We.stem EJecU"ic rules resuks bJ. an in-control ARL of -91 ,:15, In 00"'1'&9' tIl 370 for tho Shew,,,,, contrOl ohott ~:'

S""", of tho indlviduol WOSt,," Ekcm< ru]os .", ~1UticuI1lf11 troublos""," "" ilIustradoa is I".he rule. of ,several (usually seven or ei~t) ~cutive pcdnE! which d.th~ incr-el!lt;e or ~~, This role is v~ ineffec1:L ve in detectiag a n-end, the. .situ:atiOIJ fur wtDeh it Wa9. designed, It does. however, greo.tI,:Y inC:['cl!i$t: tht:. false-alarm ri!l~. See Dsvis and WDI>IWI (l988) fm mnre details,

4-3.7 Phase I and Phase II of Control Chart Apl'llcation

Stlmda:rd conttol chart usage invol\lt.S LWo. distin~t phasesl with two dift'crePI cbjecdves. In phase I, a set of process data is gathered and Ui:Aly'2;w aJ.l at ooCc in ;a, retrO.5;Pectil'e analysis, ooo.slI1lcting h'1a1I::IJ['ltnd bmlt.!l to det~;n~ if the proc~:s has been i:rI control 01,l!:1!'" the &:'Cdod of time whe-~ the. dl;Uiii wctr=; collected, and tc see if reliable cot'III:rollimit:s can be ~[ablished to meniror future. production, 'l1\i.s. i.9 typicalljl the v~ry :l:i:rsl th:in~ that is. dime wh<n contrcl <hom ere .ppllod '0 OIlY pI=S'_ Control ohotts are ."'0 pcimarily In phos' 1 to .asSist Op<;IIIti;;J.g ptm;onn~ in bringing uie proce9s imc ;II, state of 5tatiEti.Cal eentrcl. fiha&e II bci.n.;.s afteI \,\I~ !La ve a "eleen" ~I:ot of process dwEll gubered under st,abl,=, ccnditions :and r~pr~se.tI'tB.1ivc of m-crmtrnl proc:e:ss perfbrn'uulo=;, T.n phase II. We U9,=- ~ control chart: to mamtor th~ pm!:eSS by ~mparin.c: the .!i:a.mpl.e sr:iilti.!iti~ for each suceessi ve u.m-

pIe i:I:9 It ie cl:rawn from the p~ to ~ I;OlltIOll:Ern.i.!.!i_ _

ThItS in pbese I, we are ~OIDpa:rtng a ~oUectiOD of. say; m. points to III ser or controflimit!i computed from !hose pcjms. 'TYpically m = 20 or 25 stlbg:ron&"s are L1Sen .in phase 1. n is fBirly typi.tal i~ phese I ec assume tn11J.t ~ process is lnidlilly out of coerml, so Ute. objecIiv< of tho .. alys' Is to btinI tIIo J)tOOO$' in'" • ""e of , .. tistlcol,,,,,troL ConttOll!mlu are calcalated based on th;:, m subgroups ill.Dd the data plotted on the control charts, Points thllf 1IfO- outside tIl. cOIltrOl llllliu are lnvostipted, lootIllg fur pot<IIti>I ""'gnal>le causes. Arly assignable causes that are identified are worked D:r.I by engineering and opuating pereoanel in on offen to climinote "'em, Po jn " """ide tbe cootrOl\imiu life then "",lwWI and :II: new set or revisel:l ~U"ollimits. !:<:ilc1.lbtt:d "Then 'Of:(i,I data are collected and OO!),!!pored to these rev ioe<! limits. SOlllo!imoo tIli. typo of anolysi' will require sevoral,t)ld" in which the CfirntoJ. etlan 'is employed, assigceble CiiI,UE:eS Me d~te~tcd end corrected, fCNiKd control l.lJni15 1l~ L;aJeulated, and the. out-of-control :S:~Don plan is updated end expended, . Eventually the: process is stablllaed, and a deEUl set Df data that represents In-ecctrcl

process perfunnance is obtained.

Oen~tAn)l, Sbcwha.rt control1:bans ere very effecdve Jn phase I beeeuse they are easy to eccscnct and intP:lpret, and because th~y ere effective in detecnng 'botb lUgt, $1l:!ileir.W .!illift.B in th~ p.rc~s.s par~~teni iBJ1d. outliers (.single ~I:Uf:!ii.cJ.ru; that lXIa), have :res:u.1ted fro~ assignable causes of short duration), measurement errors', data reco:rrnng iiIlldior Iransmi.ss.iafL Cll'orS, tu:l.rl !he like, Funhennol1=. pArt~rm on Sh~wbart control cham ;n'e. oftf:n ~il.SY to h:),[:erpr~t aDd na.~ dilet:l phys.t~l meatking... The l1i~itizillg niles dis~usscd in the p!,c'liiouS ,seclian.s Sl"(: also ~jI to a.pply to Shewhan ci!.arts:, (Th.i.s is an opoiDnal fe'till. in 1Ilo., SPC mow ... ,) The type' of ."ignable em .. , iliat ","ally OCCUf in Phitse I resuh in fairly latl~ proc~s shifts---e-:ta.ctly the st:en.ario 'ill which. UJe Sbc.whart ,cOflU"ol chArt is most effet=tive, A .... ~ag'= run ~ngili LSi nCll usuaIlj a feASDn.ll.blc. perforrnan~6 measur., for pnas;e 11. we. are ~~ally more interest~d iD 1be probability ~at an as.sign~ble cause will be de~!:d thi!l.Il ltL the OCl:Ul"!"en~!:. !:!If fahe ahurns. For :good d.is-

cneatcns of phase I alntto] ~hart usage and ~J.ated meuere, 51:e the papers. b)l WOO~:jI.U ,(2000).,IlDn:or 000 Ci>arop (2001),Iloyles (2(1(1(1), 000 Cbemp end cbco {20m}, IiflO tho a tan oaW ANSlIASQC B 1-133--1996 Quolity Control ClJartMothooologie;' (thi, <.n lio cIownloa<lo<l at http://.,.. ... ,n<ladri . asq.crg).

In p"''' n we .,uolly assume that th. pr=. is ,....,"""bly stable. Often, tb< "';gIl_ able ""'''CS <hot ocelli' in plruo Ir '''u1e' in SIn>Iru process ,iilits, bee,"", (h"l,'OfuU),) ""OS! of tho really "gil' sources of variability have bee" ,ystometioally removed during phue 1 DUl' emphasis is now _<:m precess IU(lnitori:J:l& not 00 br.irIging an unruly proce~ into coatml A~gt:- nm'length is. 21 valid basie for ~".alua.tin~ the performance of I! control ceen "' phase ll. Shewlian contrOl chart! are much less lihly '" be offo<oi~ in phase II because ~ ate not very ,."silive, to ,mall to moderate ,IOu PI''':'''' 'hilt,: th'l is. their ARL perfo=. is !datiVely Poor. A"<mp" to '01,. this problem by ""'ployinS se""itizing mles SlLCn as; ~ di~ussed in tb~ previoas s-c~,tion ;m: . .likcly to be Unsill~ryj beclliU&e the:. use of ~.c .s.upplcmemal set\Si'ljzlD.~ rules increases [he false-alarm !1IIle: of lht: Sh~Mn """1m1 chart, (Re.i:Bll til, dLsou"ioo of the Ci>Amp and Woodall (1987) peper ia the previCJUS section_) The routine: llSe of s~siti~iD; rules to dm.cl small &bifu or to react l;TJore qoicldy '" .,sign:tble causes in phose Il should be ~.d. The oumul.ti"" '"'" and EW:MA control charts dlscasaed in Cb<rp~ 8 M(: llllXG recre likely to ee eff~c.ti\'e ill P'>osoIL

I ,I

-I

I

1

t

~ 1

1

I

i

I

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1

4-4 THE REST OF TIIE "MAGNIFICENT SEVEN' ,_

AlIhougb the COiuro] chert is a very powerful probl~m-50Jving ~d prl)l::l!.$9 :improveme.n( tool. f~ IS mo!t effeciive w~n its use is:fully ilnt=grated Inrc :a..comp.r~hPm$iv~ 8PC p~1)ogram. Tho ~ev",", rMjor SPC pl"obl.m-,Cilving tools 'hould be widely IBllgbt throu~0Il1 !bt. Ofi;anlDtion :IIJ1.d used routinely to idetJ.tify imprl:Wern~,t opfOtt1Jnitie:! and to, assist in icduciog v.n.bility and eliminating waste. The se ' "In'~' seven," intro<!""'d !u Seelion 4-1t a..-e li~d again here for co~nc:e.:

A. '.-Histoli''''' or """->oct-leaf plot Z. Check sheet

3. Peretc chart

4. Ceuse-and-egeet di_

S. Defect ,,,,,..n ... con di.gcim Ii. S""",, dioflTIIfll

7. ContrDl chert c.

We have already in1rtidii'<:«! tho hiSlogJam ..,d th, stoJn·."d-le.r plot (Chapter 2) • ..,0 con1t(ll,~t. 1n t:iili; secdon W~ will briefly Illustrate the rl:o.St of the took.

CheckSh"",

:tn lhc elD1.y .!itiJ,ges of i!lrL 5PC implM!lenta.Uon. l[ will often beCOim n~iiII)' to I;(j.lk:ct either historical or !:Ul1c.nt o:p~rating o.atm ilbout Ihe .. proces,s under investigation_ A I:!beck .liheet ~an be very l!SMl],.in this datil! e:oll.ectDon a-ctlviZY. 'The cbeL.k !heM shown in Fig. 4-16 W2IS dc:vclop~d hy an 'lmiin~er at at! aerospZJ:.e firm who was inv~5tig:ating ~ varl.ous ty~ cf tlefl::c:ts thll£ oer:iured Ott a tank used in one of thcir ptOdul;!;S vn1h Ell view towBiId !tnproving the pr:ocess_ Th~ e=pgineer de8i gn.ed this ~b~dt sb=t to filcilit& 5I.ltIlIniUizinB

I_

CHECK SIIEET
DEFECT DATA FOR 2001-2003 Y'rO
P.ar.No,; TAX-41
Location: w..,..
Srudy Oat~ 6lS/03
AIIaI.>t Tell
2002 2(]OJ
Defeet I 1 1 • , 6 7 S 9 ]0 II 12 1 2 ] • s 'Ttna.l
Pan,damRRtl. 1 l I 2 I 10 1 2 2 7 2 34
Maclrinin,,,,,,ble!ns 3 1 ] 8 1 8 3 :!9
I SuDol.il!:D ~1lr1s rusted 1 1 2 9 [;
Maskhu' wuftic:ll!Jlt I 6 • l I 17
Misali ned wt:ld 2 2
l'rooessint QIII' gf we.: , 2 •
Wtoo.""" ,,,,,cd 1 2 ,
UDfinlslxdfalrlJl. 1 3
Adbc.me fBiJute- ] 1 2 I· 1 6
Pa'wrl~n' flIodilte I 1
P-.a4ltoulr:lllmltl I I 2
Paine dmu".tCd bv eteb;c.t. 1 1
FUm .. ..", 3 1 1 5
Pdl'l:lel'ea.I1SDEmUlECd 1 1
"-tIld:llnl::ll.1{ ] 1 2
D.tarnm,>Od""';""';" 2 2
rnc:gn'Ut WtMDlico§ 13 7 13 I ] 1 16
tm.;.o;;;r~!I I"OI:.I:dure I I
S"]':;';;;;f,lluto • 1 4
TOD\l. 4 ! 14 12 S 9 9 6 10 ]4 20 7 129 1 7 s 2 Hili all the historical d.eJel:t data -lvaiJa.b~ cODlXming the t.a.nks. Because 00])' EI few tanks were tnanufactwed each moolh, It seemed appropriate to summarize ib~ data monlhly and to identify as many diH'erf:nl types of defec:t.!i as possible. The time,·orie:oted. summar, Is p.mcu1or'Y ~oJ".b"' in looking for trends or o<her I1l<aningfu\I""eIll'- For example, if many defects OCCUr during the swn:mel, one possible cause that 5bould be ~vudpted is the US!! or (I!.mporary workers during a heavy vacation period.

WOen designing. cll<Ck "'''l it is )n>po<rlnt to cl .... ly Sp<clfy lb. type of da ta to be collected, rn~ pan Dr operadon number. the date. dle. an.aJ.yst,. and any ether infonnation useful in di.agno.sing the CRUSt!. of poor p_eriormanl;:e, If me check sheet is the basis for pt:tfomllng further call;ullll1ons or is used as a womDeet for data. entry lnID a ecmputer. then it is impcrt;mt to b~ sere !hat the check sbeet will be adequare for mig pL1fPClse before consideISIble. effort is upended in acniAlly col..lecting data, In SOEJ]e~. I "trial-am" to V2l. id.", !be check sbeet layout IIIld desi&ll may be helpfuL

p"""'o, ....

The .pareto chllrt is simply a frequency distribution (or histo&ram) of attribute data arranged by o''''gcry. To illustrate • P~tO chert, consider !be tank defect d ... presented in Fill- 4--16. Plot tho ""oJ freq"""")' or occurrece of c>oh detect 'Ype (tho 1 .. t <ow"", or lb. table in Fill,' 4-16) against tho variQ,US dclU, type. to produce Fig, 4--17. which is celled • Pareto chart, Through this chart !be use r 'an quickly and vIoi1ally identifY tbe mcst 1.-"" qu"'tly oox:urtlng typo> or defec ts. For ",""'pIe. Fig. 4·17 indicates that incorrect diln.osione, parts dAm.ged, end mocllining are th. ,"Ost ."""""n1y eacocmered _IS. Thus the co"... of these def'e<t types .hould probably be idontikd ""d "".t:ked w"t.

Note thnt tbe Pareto !:han. does not :a.utom:a.tlc:aDY identify the most rmpartDllt defects. but rather only th",e thaI IlCCUt most frequently_ For ",ampl., in Fig. 4·17 casting voi de """" Verj infrliquently (2 of 166 def", ts, or l.2lT»_ H""""" er, wi,", 'DUW ""oft in '0I1Ipping the tank •• potentiolly large 0<lS! expcsure-cperheps '0 hllge that cutiog void. shoWd be e1ewte:d to :11: major defecr eat.egQty. When 1m: list of defeets contains a mixture of tt"iOit; thar might b8W ~tJPml.ely serious ecneequeeces and othClli of mucb less jmportanee, one of rwc mc:lhods Cln be used:

1. Us e a weighting "1>,,,,,,, to modify tho fr.queooy ,oun". Woig_bting ,,11e.m<!.s for defdl ... ,"",",,0<1 in Ch.p"" 6.

2. Accompeny the rrequeocy Pareeo chart ""oIysl. with • cost or oxposure P .... to ehMt.

Tbere are many variations of t1:It: basil: Pareto than. Figure 4~ 1 Ka show5 i Pareto com applied 1lI an electronics assembly process using surfaee-mceet comPOlllmt5, The vertieal axiS ls the prmentag~ of components Incorrectly Ict:.1Iolc.d. and the boril00.tB3 axis is the I:ompc.ncn! number, III code lhat locates tne !levit:e on the printed circuit bOn. Note that

tIhI!,~ ~Wlt!J duiY.!ll[ Etocn hdi..MII:COI'IlIII\htI:Vllfrcdo.f'jI.j"~U84B.lml. vflID I21ccti;.e:t!l tl1at i.n r:m-mm ftlioamiieJ me PlaJort~ CoIf the .... w1h 'W'OJII bcW b, b ~nh:I~7 IIKll ~~IIII. at the l'QPJl.:tdtol'L ()Idlry IIl;~n b~.tt'Icd 111_ delms. ut:ualty IbJlllW. sbUar Pimo diS1lillWon.

IocatiDns 21 and 39 '''''''''''' fer 10% of the error •. This ·m.y b. the re&Ul1 of the ryp'; 0' .ri:r.:~ of componc:nu at dlese. loeanona, or of w~rt: these locations are on the board layout. Figure: 4~ 1M presents :another Pareto ohan from the. electrordee industry. Th~ veni.ciBlws is the number af defective componen.u. and the horizoo.tal axis is the component number. Not. !hat .. ch vertit:al bar no. be«! broktn down by snppljer 10 produce • ""cksd Pareto dI",,- Thi, ..... ,.'"' cI=ly indical" that 'uppller A pro>tldo. , dioprcponiooaody largo share of the ddecti: ve components.

Pareto charu are widely U5~ in norouanutaeturlng applications of quality improve!:nalt methods._ A P.ll.R:to chart used b)l l qtlaItty illlPzoveme:n t team in ii!I p!ocure.mel'llt DIganization h. shown jn Fig. 4- U:l". The: teem was inve.!ili&:a.ting c.ITCIr.s on perchase orders in IU\ efforr to reWoc, the number af purchase order chllllges issued by the orgamz:a.tion. (Ea<h cbangol}'j>kally 00>1. b.LWOCII $100 ond $$00, and this orgillil.a""n i •• ued _""lll bund,ed purcha .. order change< doh mouth.) Thi. Pareto ch!III has tWO sceles-sene for the acrual eror frequency ODd _1hU for tho pe:ran. ta ge of errors. Figure 4-18d l"".0015 a Pareto c.bart constracted by a quality itn~enl tum in a bOspital to reflect the teasons !or ~oJion of ,cboduled ",,<patient 'uraOf)'.

In fOIl." al, the Pareto chart I. on. of the moRt useful of tho: "magnlflcene sevee," Its 'PPlicaticm, to qu.ollty improve"""'t .... limited only by rhe ingenuity of tbe lIIlalyst.

'I" - 5UIJI!Iiw A ~~_ SUpCIl~B

loll. III :!loa fi,jI :1 113

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~"""'':::''''-----l8Qt J1j.~,.~;~--------i 00 ~ I

,~ ...... :;------I'" ~ a !f.'....-~i---.---I ..

'" F~l'!"jMa. V~'CUIIJ1I:.u~Pru:IOOd!:uu,

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C:jllU!jlI!~md~-Eifec;t. Diacmm

Once a defect, mar, or problem b.os bee" identified 0Jld j",l.ated fO[ further otudy, we IIlIlSl br=jln kI ;ma)yze. pctenlfal csusas of this undesi:ral::llc dfect. In' gtuations where cause.5 are not obvious {sometimes they "'OJ, the ea use- anti-eff.Oi dlallC .... i, a formal tool ft.q"ontly wefulln ~~~d dl'gro.m "'llIttUoiid by • q~ality impr""ertl<\TIt reem a;o:iil'!.d to ideotifY pote;1rlal problem areas in the tank rnanufacnrrtag process menticmed earlier is shown iD R,. 4--19. The 5tePS in consaucti:nl

the Cl!luG~~BIld-effect diagrBlll are as follows: .

How to Constr"ct • C<lu •• -and-Elreot Diogram C:::::' 1. Dolin. the problem or effect to be analyzed.

1. Form the tuD> to petfoIlll tho: Moly'; s. otto. the I»alII will uncover po",ntial causes through b..ms_i.

3. Draw the effect box and the center line.

4. SPO;;if}o the major pOle.no! cause ""tegodes 0JUl join !hem as boxes i:OMected lei the center line,

5. IdeotifY the possibk causes ODd classi{y rhOOl into the categories in step 4.

Create new ctllqories; if pe~~a.ry.

6. Rllnk order til. c"'''' '0 ;den~!'j uiose that .. em ""''' Iik.ly to Impact thepmblem.

7. Take cofUCtive action.

IIlllllaJj'2ing tho tonk IJt,foc[ problern, tho team elected to lay OUt tho major .au:gOrto. of tank defi!t:ts as maclrint:5, materials, methods, perstJ.nnel~ me.~I., an4 environ .. ment, A brainstorming ieSS!Qti ensued to id!ruify the 'Yar1oU$ SubeaU5CS in each of IDI:Iie nujor cetegcdes IIlld Ie prepare tho diagram in Fig. 4·1.9. Then through di"",,,ion and the process of elimination. the group decided that maerials and me.thods contained thf. m.o.st lihly cause categnnss.

Cause-oud-t®>ct molY'i' is an oxttanoly powerful tool. A highly del.aiJt.d ClIu.«-ond~ diagram can serve lIS an dfcctive ItOlIblesbootlng aid.. Furthermore, ~ ecesmenon oJ a auz-md.-effect dia,gtBm as e. team nperiwa: tends to get people involved.!n attack· ing a pro_10m rather th .. in iffuing biam e.

Dereee Cctu::.entnricm DiagraI!L

A defed CODceJJtration diagram is a picture of !he utljl,. showing Iill re1I!.V~t views. Th~ the variQUS rypes of'defects arc dtbvn on the picture. and the di.aaram is analyzed [0 determice wh~ the loeatiQD of the defects O.d the IlIlit conveys lIllY uaeful infonnation about the potential ceuses of ~ ddt:ct.S_

. Figure 4-20 presents I defect coocentnllion diagram for thelinal ... otOI>ly "age of a

r.mge_' manufacturing process. Surfuce·fini," defects are identified by the daJ:k shad.d sreas on the refri&cratm. From .En:spection DJ the diagram i!- SocelIlli clear th.at .:pMerials handliug I.! ~ble for tho Dliijocity of those d<:fe<n. The u]li[ is being lIlCM:d by se ewing a bell aICIllld the middle, ODd this bell is either tOO loose (righll, worn out, made of abrasive tll.Md'ill, Dr lOCI oerrow Purtbermcre, whee the unit is moved Ihe corners are being damaged. Ill.! po,sibl.that worker r.osue ;. a t._ in this precess. In 6lI)' __ t, proper work ",0III0dS eod impro...n mllll:rials handling will likely imptov. this proc ... dram.ricaJly.

Figwe 4-21 shows the defect ecncentretica diagram for the tink prohl.em mentioned eartier. Note that this diagram shows several different broad clregorles of defects, e-ach iderl~lied with • speciJio code. Often difforent 001011 are "sed to inclica", di!fer.nt typea ofdof_.

When d.efl:Cl data. are portnlyed on a dd~ ooncemration diagram. DYer a suffidcnt number of tm.i1:5~ patrer.ru frequently e.m~tge. and m.e locaOOfl of 11l~~ pllittl=rnS often COXItains mucb information abo«u the caU5Cl!'i of the defects. We haw found defbct CODcentr.alion diagtOmS '0 be important problr.m:solving IDOh in many lndustrle&, including plating, painting IIIJld colling, c:astieg end fauodty operuions, maclWlir.!g, and cJ.ecttoni.cs assembly.

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.
f 8. .
¥ ..41.
~ 70 SWl!i2025-3C35 ~lmnlllCubl

Plpra oI·'ll A. s.r;a,ttt dJasram,

Sea:rror Dtegeam

The scener diagram is a useful plot for iiJt,nrifying • pottnrial relation.<hip beween two vati'bleo. Da", ere collected in pairs on the two vari • .bles-say, <l'" xiJ-for i-I, 2, ... , n. Theon }Ii is plotted :agaios t the co:rresponc;ling x~ Thl:- Shtpe of the scaner diagram often jndica~s what type ofrelaticmslUp may exist betw=n r.he two variables,

Figure 4-21 shows.;II, seeeer diQgn:m relating metal rec~ (iT.! perccn.t) from a mag'nalhcnnic :!ime.ltiDg p:rOCe:tS for magnesium aiairlst cClj'lesponding values of the amount of r~ flux added ro !he: o;uclble.. The scatter diagram indicates a sttcng posiUn eorreIatiOD between m~ recovery IfId flux un.ount, that is, as the arnou.n.t of flux sdded is increased, the metal recovery also incrt:a.s.es.. It is tempting 1L.J conclude that the releuceShip is ('MIle based on cause am:) effect: By increasing !he amount Df rec:1Bim flux used, we can olways ensure higb Dlctrli fOCQvqy. Thi. Ihinkin.f; is potentially dangerous, because ",rreI.tion do es not neceseerlly ""ply c.u.a11IJ'. Thi, applf<tll relationship COllIe be caused bt50llledJing qui .. differenc Rlr e .ample, bom miobles could b. relau:d 10 • third ere, such as Ih.e temperamre of the tn~ta1 prior to lht: reclaim pOUtiDg operation, and tb1..s relationship ",uld be responsible for wba, w. ,,0 In Fig. 4·22.lfhigber _poratmoslosd [0 higher metal recovery md the pracrl~e. is to add reclaim flu.x in proportion to tempe-ra-

. ture, adding, more flux wbea the precess l.S running at low temperature will de nclhing to etthaooo yklcL The acerter diagram i.i useful fo< idondfyln~ pntential rel.ti_hips. ll"'lgDed experJmenU {s ee Mon'gomery (2001)] mml b. used to verify eausallly,

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4·5 IMPLEMENTING SPC

Tb:e. methods of suti.~c:al. process control can provide :slgnificant pa}lbaci: LC tnose eeeepanies that can secc ess fully imp)o",,,,' thorn. Allhoogh SPC ."""" to be • eelleetion of .statistically based problem-mlving toOls, there is mere to the successful use of SPC than learning and using th.es~ toola. Mi.JIalem~t involvemeDt and l:ommltme:Dt 10 tbe quality iIqJrovement precess are the meet vilal componcnu; of SPC's po:t~till. success. Manq.~nt is a role model. and others in the otg:a:J]iz:ation willloak to manaz~nt for guidance aad as 1m ex.ampltt A team approach i.!i aI:!iC important. as .it is 'US'll aJly diffieult lor one. p~son .alone, to intreduce procC$S unproveraents. Mmy of the ""mal~ficent seven" an: hel¢U1 in building an improvement team. includlng "" use ·and·effect diegrams Pneto

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In this ,,,,00". we gi ve an account 01 applylng SFC methods to improve q"oli'Y and pro- l

duotivi'Y In a copp er pl,tin!! operation .. • pnmed circuit board f'bdeBt!on !a<:ili'Y_ 'I'hb iii,

process. was cba:i8.tterized by bigb levels of defects such is brittle. ccpp~r I!Dd. ccpper vaids

and by long cycle "",e_ 'I'he long cyole1!me was particularly IrOUbl~om~~"~!~t ~'d_l_ed_ro .~ • _

charts, end defect conct:rUlaIion diagrams. The. bask SPC prcblern-solviag tools must b"""",e wlrloly _ and widely used IllrouShoul the orgnnIzBtIon. Ongctag educetien of per.!i(lJ1n~l about sPC UI.d CIheI to.ctl1od.B for reducing variabIDty ere necessary to ,d,;eve Ibis widespr ea d kacwledge of the tools.

The obj«tive of an SPC-based vari a bility mluetioD p<Ogr"" I. CODOn""", irDprowmenton ill weekly, qu.art.erly, Mil annual basis. .sPC is 1'10( acne-dme program to be applied wben the: bustll!!SS is in trLfubl~ !lind Iarer abandoned. Qu.a.lity :b:o.ptov~~t r.hat is fccused on reduction of vat1abilit)' mU5:t become; pm of the culture of the. OIjjani%d:!ion.

The eeeeol chert is lin important tool for prOCeJiS imprOV"Cm~t. Processes 00)]01 naturall)l Operatt: in 1m ill-control state. and tIx: u.se of control c:baits i!i:'m iinpomJn step that must be taken eerly in an SPC program to eliminate assignable csuses, reduce pt0CZ5.S variability. ODd .,.bifuo p"' cess perfcmwlee. 1b improve quaIiIy and productivity. we must begin 10 manage with rae", .. d data, and IlOI .imply Itly on judgment. Controt <bans are. aD im.pol1ll1t part'Df rhis chom&e in management approach,

In implementing a ceerpeay-wide ~ffcrt to reduce vari:ability aDd lmp:rove qWllity. we have found mat several elements are uNllly present in til su~fu) effcns, These ele, meuU are as follows:

Elem'Dts Df a Socc ... fol SPC Program

I. Mao.gemell' leadership ~. A "",.",_o.el>

3. Educlllnon of ernplayee9· at all levels

4. Emphasis 00 U>duoing variability

5. Me:mIring SU~~5 in quantitative. (economic) tenn,

6.. A mechmism. for ~mmunicadn8 successful results throughDut the o!pllizalion

We <""""t ~<mphasi:z. the imPotw><e of lIUUlag''''''''' li.de ra blp JlIld the lea,m -epproech, Succ es sful qwlity improvement"" "top·doWn" man.g.ment~_~'Y. It is. .also important 10 measl,i~ progress I!Dd success. in quantitative (cc:onomit:) lerDlS and 10 'PfI'od knowledge of this '0= throughout the organizarlcn. when succe<sI'I>l imprO'i'e:merns. are ccmmunicated thtoUihour tbe -compMY, this can provide lllotivation and itlcentive lCJ Improve other processes Sind to meke COl'liDn:UOU$ impcoveaent :a. no·rmal. port of lllll woy of doiJlg J"sincss.

4·6 AN APPLICATION OF SPC

Jiga:re4-l1. ~ctd3lj;t11111_ml:lll.~_":~WtoI,~

ill} ~nm;e wod!: back.log and WBi5 a :major 'l:orHtibutor to poor ~onfora.lliUl~· to the fae-

""J' pIOd1lC~O" schedul.. .__ . c

Manlllge.ment chose diliI precess area. fut an :htilial implementation of SPC. An improvement team wu funned. oon"sUng of the plating tllllk operator, tho manufacturing engireer responsible lor lllll process • ."d • quo.llty engbroer. All member; of !he loom hod bee. exp.sed 10 the ·m.",moont."",,"" in ~ company-sponsored SPC seminar. During tho frr>I Ie"" lDoetin~. it 111:1$ decided to c on eentrate on Iedocing the flow timelhmugh lito process, as the missed de.livery targe.ts were considered to be the most serious obstacle to improving productivity; Tb< team quickly det<mIinod (based on operator experience) that f.Xl:esmc downtime on We controller thal regola.ted-the ropp~ c:onoentrar:ion in the ple.t~ . ing tank: was a major factor in the excessive flow ume, as CCDltrollcr downtime translaled dlrc<:!Iy in., lost pmduclion-

The team decided to U.5e II C:allse-Bnd-effect analy:si.s to begin ro isolate. the petential causes of ~onttolk:r dowmim~_ Fig.ure 4·23 .shows the 1;3.tl.!i~a.nd.,..effc1;t diagram that was produced d1.lli.JJg iii. brainstonnin&: sessi.on focused an ccctrcller downtime, The team WIIS able to quicl:lY idontifY II m'jorpolontial 08"''' of <ontron.r downtime. However. when Ill<)' ",omined the 'quip_ lcgbook to make • more r!elinitive diagnosis of the tau ... of downtime _ em "",,", proces' performance. the =k< were di.oppointing. Tb< lOgbook. centefned Utde. use.fu1 infomution" about causes of dO"WDtime; .iml.ead. it conlllined oaly • cnrooolol)ioaJ recO!d of when lllll machine was up and when it was down.

The. team then d~cided that it would be necessary to collect wild data .about the. It.allSe.!

Df controller downtime. They design~d tm. check: ~et s.hown .itJ Fig" 4-24 150 III 5uppl.e .. "",.,oJ pell" for tho lo~boOl<. The I""" agreed tIw w""oove, lit. equipment w .. down. Dne ~ member would assume responsibility for filling 01lt me ~hcclc shut. Note that the major CI!JISe.S of controller downtime identified. en me ~use--.a.nd-.dfect diagram nave. been used to s.tructure Ihe headings and subbeadlags on the. check sheet. ~ team agreed that data would be collected aver a four- [0 six-week period

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