Contents
0.1 Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi
1 Basics of Probability & Interest 1
1.1 Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Theory of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.1 Variable Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.2.2 Continuoustime Payment Streams . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.3 Exercise Set 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.4 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2 Interest & Force of Mortality 23
2.1 More on Theory of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.1.1 Annuities & Actuarial Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.1.2 Loan Amortization & Mortgage Reﬁnancing . . . . . . 29
2.1.3 Illustration on Mortgage Reﬁnancing . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.1.4 Computational illustration in Splus . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1.5 Coupon & Zerocoupon Bonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.2 Force of Mortality & Analytical Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
i
ii CONTENTS
2.2.1 Comparison of Forces of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.3 Exercise Set 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.4 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3 Probability & Life Tables 61
3.1 Interpreting Force of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2 Interpolation Between Integer Ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.3 Binomial Variables &
Law of Large Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.3.1 Exact Probabilities, Bounds & Approximations . . . . 71
3.4 Simulation of Life Table Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.4.1 Expectation for Discrete Random Variables . . . . . . 76
3.4.2 Rules for Manipulating Expectations . . . . . . . . . . 78
3.5 Some Special Integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.6 Exercise Set 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.7 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.8 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4 Expected Present Values of Payments 95
4.1 Expected Payment Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4.1.1 Types of Insurance & Life Annuity Contracts . . . . . 96
4.1.2 Formal Relations among Net Single Premiums . . . . . 102
4.1.3 Formulas for Net Single Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . 103
4.1.4 Expected Present Values for m = 1 . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.2 Continuous Contracts & Residual Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
CONTENTS iii
4.2.1 Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies . . . . . . 111
4.3 Exercise Set 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
4.4 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
4.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
5 Premium Calculation 123
5.1 mPayment Net Single Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
5.1.1 Dependence Between Integer & Fractional Ages at Death124
5.1.2 Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (i) . . . . . . . 126
5.1.3 Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (ii) . . . . . . . 129
5.2 Approximate Formulas via Case(i) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
5.3 Net Level Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
5.4 Beneﬁts Involving Fractional Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
5.5 Exercise Set 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
5.6 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
5.7 Useful Formulas from Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
6 Commutation & Reserves 147
6.1 Idea of Commutation Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
6.1.1 Variablebeneﬁt Commutation Formulas . . . . . . . . 150
6.1.2 Secular Trends in Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6.2 Reserve & Cash Value of a Single Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
6.2.1 Retrospective Formulas & Identities . . . . . . . . . . . 155
6.2.2 Relating Insurance & Endowment Reserves . . . . . . . 158
6.2.3 Reserves under Constant Force of Mortality . . . . . . 158
6.2.4 Reserves under Increasing Force of Mortality . . . . . . 160
iv CONTENTS
6.2.5 Recursive Calculation of Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
6.2.6 PaidUp Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
6.3 Select Mortality Tables & Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
6.4 Exercise Set 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
6.5 Illustration of Commutation Columns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
6.6 Examples on Paidup Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
6.7 Useful formulas from Chapter 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
7 Population Theory 161
7.1 Population Functions & Indicator Notation . . . . . . . . . . . 161
7.1.1 Expectation & Variance of Residual Life . . . . . . . . 164
7.2 StationaryPopulation Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
7.3 Estimation Using LifeTable Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
7.4 Nonstationary Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
7.4.1 Appendix: Largetime Limit of λ(t, x) . . . . . . . . . 176
7.5 Exercise Set 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
7.6 Population Word Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
8 Estimation from LifeTable Data 185
8.1 General LifeTable Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
8.2 ML Estimation for Exponential Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
8.3 MLE for Age Speciﬁc Force of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
8.3.1 Extension to Random Entry & Censoring Times . . . . 193
8.4 KaplanMeier Survival Function Estimator . . . . . . . . . . . 194
8.5 Exercise Set 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
8.6 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
CONTENTS v
9 Risk Models & Select Mortality 197
9.1 Proportional Hazard Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
9.2 Excess Risk Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
9.3 Select Life Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
9.4 Exercise Set 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
9.5 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
10 Multiple Decrement Models 205
10.1 Multiple Decrement Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
10.2 DeathRate Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
10.2.1 Deaths Uniform within Year of Age . . . . . . . . . . . 209
10.2.2 Force of Mortality Constant within Year of Age . . . . 210
10.2.3 CauseSpeciﬁc Death Rate Estimators . . . . . . . . . 210
10.3 SingleDecrement Tables and Net Hazards of Mortality . . . . 212
10.4 CauseSpeciﬁc Life Insurance Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
10.5 Exercise Set 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
10.6 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
11 Central Limit Theorem & Portfolio Risks 215
13 Bibliography 217
Solutions & Hints 219
vi CONTENTS
0.1 Preface
This book is a course of lectures on the mathematics of actuarial science. The
idea behind the lectures is as far as possible to deduce interesting material on
contingent present values and life tables directly from calculus and common
sense notions, illustrated through word problems. Both the Interest Theory
and Probability related to life tables are treated as wonderful concrete appli
cations of the calculus. The lectures require no background beyond a third
semester of calculus, but the prerequisite calculus courses must have been
solidly understood. It is a truism of preactuarial advising that students who
have not done really well in and digested the calculus ought not to consider
actuarial studies.
It is not assumed that the student has seen a formal introduction to prob
ability. Notions of relative frequency and average are introduced ﬁrst with
reference to the ensemble of a cohort lifetable, the underlying formal random
experiment being random selection from the cohort lifetable population (or,
in the context of probabilities and expectations for ‘lives aged x’, from the
subset of l
x
members of the population who survive to age x). The cal
culation of expectations of functions of a timetodeath random variables is
rooted on the one hand in the concrete notion of lifetable average, which is
then approximated by suitable idealized failure densities and integrals. Later,
in discussing Binomial random variables and the Law of Large Numbers, the
combinatorial and probabilistic interpretation of binomial coeﬃcients are de
rived from the Binomial Theorem, which the student the is assumed to know
as a topic in calculus (Taylor series identiﬁcation of coeﬃcients of a poly
nomial.) The general notions of expectation and probability are introduced,
but for example the Law of Large Numbers for binomial variables is treated
(rigorously) as a topic involving calculus inequalities and summation of ﬁnite
series. This approach allows introduction of the numerically and conceptually
useful largedeviation inequalities for binomial random variables to explain
just how unlikely it is for binomial (e.g., lifetable) counts to deviate much
percentagewise from expectations when the underlying population of trials
is large.
The reader is also not assumed to have worked previously with the The
ory of Interest. These lectures present Theory of Interest as a mathematical
problemtopic, which is rather unlike what is done in typical ﬁnance courses.
0.1. PREFACE vii
Getting the typical Interest problems — such as the exercises on mortgage re
ﬁnancing and present values of various payoﬀ schemes — into correct format
for numerical answers is often not easy even for good mathematics students.
The main goal of these lectures is to reach — by a conceptual route —
mathematical topics in Life Contingencies, Premium Calculation and De
mography not usually seen until rather late in the trajectory of quantitative
Actuarial Examinations. Such an approach can allow undergraduates with
solid preparation in calculus (not necessarily mathematics or statistics ma
jors) to explore their possible interests in business and actuarial science. It
also allows the majority of such students — who will choose some other av
enue, from economics to operations research to statistics, for the exercise of
their quantitative talents — to know something concrete and mathematically
coherent about the topics and ideas actually useful in Insurance.
A secondary goal of the lectures has been to introduce varied topics of
applied mathematics as part of a reasoned development of ideas related to
survival data. As a result, material is included on statistics of biomedical
studies and on reliability which would not ordinarily ﬁnd its way into an
actuarial course. A further result is that mathematical topics, from diﬀeren
tial equations to maximum likelihood estimators based on complex lifetable
data, which seldom ﬁt coherently into undergraduate programs of study, are
‘vertically integrated’ into a single course.
While the material in these lectures is presented systematically, it is not
separated by chapters into uniﬁed topics such as Interest Theory, Probability
Theory, Premium Calculation, etc. Instead the introductory material from
probability and interest theory are interleaved, and later, various mathemat
ical ideas are introduced as needed to advance the discussion. No book at
this level can claim to be fully selfcontained, but every attempt has been
made to develop the mathematics to ﬁt the actuarial applications as they
arise logically.
The coverage of the main body of each chapter is primarily ‘theoretical’.
At the end of each chapter is an Exercise Set and a short section of Worked
Examples to illustrate the kinds of word problems which can be solved by
the techniques of the chapter. The Worked Examples sections show how
the ideas and formulas work smoothly together, and they highlight the most
important and frequently used formulas.
viii CONTENTS
Chapter 1
Basics of Probability and the
Theory of Interest
The ﬁrst lectures supply some background on elementary Probability Theory
and basic Theory of Interest. The reader who has not previously studied these
subjects may get a brief overview here, but will likely want to supplement
this Chapter with reading in any of a number of calculusbased introductions
to probability and statistics, such as Larson (1982), Larsen and Marx (1985),
or Hogg and Tanis (1997) and the basics of the Theory of Interest as covered
in the text of Kellison (1970) or Chapter 1 of Gerber (1997).
1.1 Probability, Lifetimes, and Expectation
In the cohort lifetable model, imagine a number l
0
of individuals born
simultaneously and followed until death, resulting in data d
x
, l
x
for each
age x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., where
l
x
= number of lives aged x (i.e. alive at birthday x )
and
d
x
= l
x
−l
x+1
= number dying between ages x, x + 1
Now, allowing the agevariable x to take all real values, not just whole
numbers, treat S(x) = l
x
/l
0
as a piecewise continuously diﬀerentiable non
1
2 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
increasing function called the “survivor” or “survival” function. Then for all
positive real x, S(x) −S(x + t) is the fraction of the initial cohort which
fails between time x and x +t, and
S(x) −S(x +t)
S(x)
=
l
x
−l
x+t
l
x
denotes the fraction of those alive at exact age x who fail before x +t.
Question: what do probabilities have to do with the life table
and survival function ?
To answer this, we ﬁrst introduce probability as simply a relative fre
quency, using numbers from a cohort lifetable like that of the accompanying
Illustrative Life Table. In response to a probability question, we supply the
fraction of the relevant lifetable population, to obtain identities like
Pr(life aged 29 dies between exact ages 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60 )
= S(35) −S(41) +S(52) −S(60) =
(l
35
−l
41
) + (l
52
−l
60
)
¸
l
29
where our convention is that a life aged 29 is one of the cohort surviving to
the 29th birthday.
The idea here is that all of the lifetimes covered by the life table are
understood to be governed by an identical “mechanism” of failure, and that
any probability question about a single lifetime is really a question concerning
the fraction of those lives about which the question is asked (e.g., those alive
at age x) whose lifetimes will satisfy the stated property (e.g., die either
between 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60). This “frequentist” notion of
probability of an event as the relative frequency with which the event occurs
in a large population of (independent) identical units is associated with the
phrase “law of large numbers”, which will bediscussed later. For now, remark
only that the life table population should be large for the ideas presented so
far to make good sense. See Table 1.1 for an illustration of a cohort lifetable
with realistic numbers.
Note: see any basic probability textbook, such as Larson (1982), Larsen
and Marx (1985), or Hogg and Tanis (1997) for formal deﬁnitions of the
notions of sample space, event, probability, and conditional probability. The
main ideas which are necessary to understand the discussion so far are really
1.1. PROBABILITY 3
Table 1.1: Illustrative LifeTable, simulated to resemble realistic US (Male)
lifetable. For details of simulation, see Section 3.4 below.
Age x l
x
d
x
x l
x
d
x
0 100000 2629 40 92315 295
1 97371 141 41 92020 332
2 97230 107 42 91688 408
3 97123 63 43 91280 414
4 97060 63 44 90866 464
5 96997 69 45 90402 532
6 96928 69 46 89870 587
7 96859 52 47 89283 680
8 96807 54 48 88603 702
9 96753 51 49 87901 782
10 96702 33 50 87119 841
11 96669 40 51 86278 885
12 96629 47 52 85393 974
13 96582 61 53 84419 1082
14 96521 86 54 83337 1088
15 96435 105 55 82249 1213
16 96330 83 56 81036 1344
17 96247 125 57 79692 1423
18 96122 133 58 78269 1476
19 95989 149 59 76793 1572
20 95840 154 60 75221 1696
21 95686 138 61 73525 1784
22 95548 163 62 71741 1933
23 95385 168 63 69808 2022
24 95217 166 64 67786 2186
25 95051 151 65 65600 2261
26 94900 149 66 63339 2371
27 94751 166 67 60968 2426
28 94585 157 68 58542 2356
29 94428 133 69 56186 2702
30 94295 160 70 53484 2548
31 94135 149 71 50936 2677
32 93986 152 72 48259 2811
33 93834 160 73 45448 2763
34 93674 199 74 42685 2710
35 93475 187 75 39975 2848
36 93288 212 76 37127 2832
37 93076 228 77 34295 2835
38 92848 272 78 31460 2803
39 92576 261
4 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
matters of common sense when applied to relative frequency but require
formal axioms when used more generally:
• Probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1 assigned to subsets of the
entire range of possible outcomes (in the examples, subsets of the in
terval of possible human lifetimes measured in years).
• The probability P(A ∪ B) of the union A ∪ B of disjoint (i.e.,
nonoverlapping) sets A and B is necessarily the sum of the separate
probabilities P(A) and P(B).
• When probabilities are requested with reference to a smaller universe of
possible outcomes, such as B = lives aged 29, rather than all members
of a cohort population, the resulting conditional probabilities of events
A are written P(A B) and calculated as P(A ∩ B)/P(B), where
A ∩ B denotes the intersection or overlap of the two events A, B.
• Two events A, B are deﬁned to be independent when P(A ∩ B) =
P(A)·P(B) or — equivalently, as long as P(B) > 0 — the conditional
probability P(AB) expressing the probability of A if B were known
to have occurred, is the same as the (unconditional) probability P(A).
The lifetable data, and the mechanism by which members of the popula
tion die, are summarized ﬁrst through the survivor function S(x) which at
integer values of x agrees with the ratios l
x
/l
0
. Note that S(x) has values
between 0 and 1, and can be interpreted as the probability for a single indi
vidual to survive at least x time units. Since fewer people are alive at larger
ages, S(x) is a decreasing function of x, and in applications S(x) should
be piecewise continuously diﬀerentiable (largely for convenience, and because
any analytical expression which would be chosen for S(x) in practice will
be piecewise smooth). In addition, by deﬁnition, S(0) = 1. Another way of
summarizing the probabilities of survival given by this function is to deﬁne
the density function
f(x) = −
dS
dx
(x) = −S
(x)
as the (absolute) rate of decrease of the function S. Then, by the funda
mental theorem of calculus, for any ages a < b,
1.1. PROBABILITY 5
P(life aged 0 dies between ages a and b) = (l
a
−l
b
)/l
0
= S(a) −S(b) =
b
a
(−S
(x)) dx =
b
a
f(x) dx (1.1)
which has the very helpful geometric interpretation that the probability of
dying within the interval [a, b] is equal to the area under the curve y = f(x)
over the xinterval [a, b]. Note also that the ‘probability’ rule which assigns
the integral
A
f(x) dx to the set A (which may be an interval, a union
of intervals, or a still more complicated set) obviously satisﬁes the ﬁrst two
of the bulleted axioms displayed above.
The terminal age ω of a life table is an integer value large enough that
S(ω) is negligibly small, but no value S(t) for t < ω is zero. For practical
purposes, no individual lives to the ω birthday. While ω is ﬁnite in real
lifetables and in some analytical survival models, most theoretical forms for
S(x) have no ﬁnite age ω at which S(ω) = 0, and in those forms ω = ∞
by convention.
Now we are ready to deﬁne some terms and motivate the notion of ex
pectation. Think of the age T at which a speciﬁed newly born member of
the population will die as a random variable, which for present purposes
means a variable which takes various values x with probabilities governed
by the life table data l
x
and the survivor function S(x) or density function
f(x) in a formula like the one just given in equation (1.1). Suppose there is a
contractual amount Y which must be paid (say, to the heirs of that individ
ual) at the time T of death of the individual, and suppose that the contract
provides a speciﬁc function Y = g(T) according to which this payment
depends on (the wholenumber part of) the age T at which death occurs.
What is the average value of such a payment over all individuals whose life
times are reﬂected in the lifetable ? Since d
x
= l
x
− l
x+1
individuals (out
of the original l
0
) die at ages between x and x +1, thereby generating a
payment g(x), the total payment to all individuals in the lifetable can be
written as
¸
x
(l
x
−l
x+1
) g(x)
Thus the average payment, at least under the assumption that Y = g(T)
6 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
depends only on the largest whole number [T] less than or equal to T, is
¸
x
(l
x
−l
x+1
) g(x) / l
0
=
¸
x
(S(x) −S(x + 1))g(x)
=
¸
x
x+1
x
f(t) g(t) dt =
∞
0
f(t) g(t) dt
¸
(1.2)
This quantity, the total contingent payment over the whole cohort divided by
the number in the cohort, is called the expectation of the random payment
Y = g(T) in this special case, and can be interpreted as the weighted average
of all of the diﬀerent payments g(x) actually received, where the weights
are just the relative frequency in the life table with which those payments
are received. More generally, if the restriction that g(t) depends only on
the integer part [t] of t were dropped , then the expectation of Y = g(T)
would be given by the same formula
E(Y ) = E(g(T)) =
∞
0
f(t) g(t) dt
The last displayed integral, like all expectation formulas, can be under
stood as a weighted average of values g(T) obtained over a population,
with weights equal to the probabilities of obtaining those values. Recall from
the Riemannintegral construction in Calculus that the integral
f(t)g(t)dt
can be regarded approximately as the sum over very small timeintervals
[t, t + ∆] of the quantities f(t)g(t)∆, quantities which are interpreted as
the base ∆ of a rectangle multiplied by its height f(t)g(t), and the rect
angle closely covers the area under the graph of the function f g over the
interval [t, t + ∆]. The term f(t)g(t)∆ can alternatively be interpreted
as the product of the value g(t) — essentially equal to any of the values
g(T) which can be realized when T falls within the interval [t, t + ∆] —
multiplied by f(t) ∆. The latter quantity is, by the Fundamental Theorem
of the Calculus, approximately equal for small ∆ to the area under the
function f over the interval [t, t + ∆], and is by deﬁnition equal to the
probability with which T ∈ [t, t +∆]. In summary, E(Y ) =
∞
0
g(t)f(t)dt
is the average of values g(T) obtained for lifetimes T within small intervals
[t, t +∆] weighted by the probabilities of approximately f(t)∆ with which
those T and g(T) values are obtained. The expectation is a weighted
average because the weights f(t)∆ sum to the integral
∞
0
f(t)dt = 1.
The same idea and formula can be applied to the restricted population
of lives aged x. The resulting quantity is then called the conditional
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 7
expected value of g(T) given that T ≥ x. The formula will be diﬀerent
in two ways: ﬁrst, the range of integration is from x to ∞, because of
the resitriction to individuals in the lifetable who have survived to exact age
x; second, the density f(t) must be replaced by f(t)/S(x), the socalled
conditional density given T ≥ x, which is found as follows. From the
deﬁnition of conditional probability, for t ≥ x,
P(t ≤ T ≤ t + ∆
T ≥ x) =
P( [t ≤ T ≤ t + ∆] ∩ [T ≥ x])
P(T ≥ x)
=
P(t ≤ T ≤ t + ∆)
P(T ≥ x)
=
S(t) −S(t + ∆)
S(x)
Thus the density which can be used to calculate conditional probabilities
P(a ≤ T ≤ b
T ≥ x) for x < a < b is
lim
∆→0
1
∆
P(t ≤ T ≤ t+∆
T ≥ x) = lim
∆→0
S(t) −S(t + ∆)
S(x) ∆
= −
S
(t)
S(x)
=
f(t)
S(x)
The result of all of this discussion of conditional expected values is the for
mula, with associated weightedaverage interpretation:
E(g(T)
T ≥ x) =
1
S(x)
∞
x
g(t) f(t) dt (1.3)
1.2 Theory of Interest
Since payments based upon unpredictable occurrences or contingencies for in
sured lives can occur at diﬀerent times, we study next the Theory of Interest,
which is concerned with valuing streams of payments made over time. The
general model in the case of constant interest is as follows. Compounding at
timeintervals h = 1/m , with nominal interest rate i
(m)
, means that a unit
amount accumulates to (1 +i
(m)
/m) after a time h = 1/m. The principal
or account value 1+i
(m)
/m at time 1/m accumulates over the timeinterval
from 1/m until 2/m, to (1+i
(m)
/m)·(1+i
(m)
/m) = (1+i
(m)
/m)
2
. Similarly,
by induction, a unit amount accumulates to (1+i
(m)
/m)
n
= (1+i
(m)
/m)
Tm
after the time T = nh which is a multiple of n whole units of h. In the
8 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
limit of continuous compounding (i.e., m → ∞ ), the unit amount com
pounds to e
δ T
after time T, where the instantaneous annualized nominal
interest rate δ = lim
m
i
(m)
(also called the force of interest) will be shown
to exist. In either case of compounding, the actual Annual Percentage Rate
or APR or eﬀective interest rate is deﬁned as the amount (minus 1, and
multiplied by 100 if it is to be expressed as a percentage) to which a unit
compounds after a single year, i.e., respectively as
i
APR
=
1 +
i
(m)
m
m
−1 or e
δ
−1
The amount to which a unit invested at time 0 accumulates at the eﬀective
interest rate i
APR
over a timeduration T (still assumed to be a multiple
of 1/m) is therefore
1 + i
APR
T
=
1 +
i
(m)
m
mT
= e
δ T
This amount is called the accumulation factor operating over the interval of
duration T at the ﬁxed interest rate. Moreover, the ﬁrst and third expres
sions of the displayed equation also make perfect sense when the duration
T is any positive real number, not necessarily a multiple of 1/m.
All the nominal interest rates i
(m)
for diﬀerent periods of compounding
are related by the formulas
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
m
= 1 +i = 1 +i
APR
, i
(m)
= m
¸
(1 +i)
1/m
− 1
¸
(1.4)
Similarly, interest can be said to be governed by the discount rates for various
compounding periods, deﬁned by
1 − d
(m)
/m = (1 +i
(m)
/m)
−1
Solving the last equation for d
(m)
gives
d
(m)
= i
(m)
/(1 +i
(m)
/m) (1.5)
The idea of discount rates is that if $1 is loaned out at interest, then the
amount d
(m)
/m is the correct amount to be repaid at the beginning rather
than the end of each fraction 1/m of the year, with repayment of the
principal of $1 at the end of the year, in order to amount to the same
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 9
eﬀective interest rate. The reason is that, according to the deﬁnition, the
amount 1 −d
(m)
/m accumulates at nominal interest i
(m)
(compounded m
times yearly) to (1−d
(m)
/m) · (1+i
(m)
/m) = 1 after a timeperiod of 1/m.
The quantities i
(m)
, d
(m)
are naturally introduced as the interest pay
ments which must be made respectively at the ends and the beginnings of
successive timeperiods 1/m in order that the principal owed at each time
j/m on an amount $ 1 borrowed at time 0 will always be $ 1. To
deﬁne these terms and justify this assertion, consider ﬁrst the simplest case,
m = 1. If $ 1 is to be borrowed at time 0, then the single payment at
time 1 which fully compensates the lender, if that lender could alternatively
have earned interest rate i, is $ (1 + i), which we view as a payment of
$ 1 principal (the face amount of the loan) and $ i interest. In exactly the
same way, if $ 1 is borrowed at time 0 for a timeperiod 1/m, then the
repayment at time 1/m takes the form of $ 1 principal and $ i
(m)
/m
interest. Thus, if $ 1 was borrowed at time 0, an interest payment of
$ i
(m)
/m at time 1/m leaves an amount $ 1 still owed, which can be
viewed as an amount borrowed on the timeinterval (1/m, 2/m]. Then a
payment of $ i
(m)
/m at time 2/m still leaves an amount $ 1 owed at
2/m, which is deemed borrowed until time 3/m, and so forth, until the loan
of $ 1 on the ﬁnal timeinterval ((m−1)/m, 1] is paid oﬀ at time 1 with
a ﬁnal interest payment of $ i
(m)
/m together with the principal repayment
of $ 1. The overall result which we have just proved intuitively is:
$ 1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of
$ i
(m)
/m at times 1/m, 2/m, . . . , 1 plus the payment of $ 1
at time 1.
Similarly, if interest is to be paid at the beginning of the period of the
loan instead of the end, the interest paid at time 0 for a loan of $ 1 would
be d = i/(1 + i), with the only other payment a repayment of principal at
time 1. To see that this is correct, note that since interest d is paid at the
same instant as receiving the loan of $ 1 , the net amount actually received
is 1 − d = (1 + i)
−1
, which accumulates in value to (1 − d)(1 + i) = $ 1
at time 1. Similarly, if interest payments are to be made at the beginnings
of each of the intervals (j/m, (j + 1)/m] for j = 0, 1, . . . , m − 1, with
a ﬁnal principal repayment of $ 1 at time 1, then the interest payments
should be d
(m)
/m. This follows because the amount eﬀectively borrowed
10 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
(after the immediate interest payment) over each interval (j/m, (j +1)/m]
is $ (1 − d
(m)
/m), which accumulates in value over the interval of length
1/m to an amount (1 − d
(m)
/m)(1 + i
(m)
/m) = 1. So throughout the
yearlong life of the loan, the principal owed at (or just before) each time
(j + 1)/m is exactly $ 1. The net result is
$ 1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments
of $ d
(m)
/m at times 0, 1/m, 2/m, . . . , (m− 1)/m plus the
payment of $ 1 at time 1.
A useful algebraic exercise to conﬁrm the displayed assertions is:
Exercise. Verify that the present values at time 0 of the payment streams
with m interest payments in the displayed assertions are respectively
m
¸
j=1
i
(m)
m
(1 +i)
−j/m
+(1 +i)
−1
and
m−1
¸
j=0
d
(m)
m
(1 +i)
−j/m
+(1 +i)
−1
and that both are equal to 1. These identities are valid for all i > 0.
1.2.1 Variable Interest Rates
Now we formulate the generalization of these ideas to the case of nonconstant
instantaneously varying, but known or observed, nominal interest rates δ(t),
for which the oldfashioned name would be timevarying force of interest.
Here, if there is a compoundinginterval [kh, (k + 1)h) of length h = 1/m,
one would ﬁrst use the instantaneous continuouslycompounding interestrate
δ(kh) available at the beginning of the interval to calculate an equivalent
annualized nominal interestrate over the interval, i.e., to ﬁnd a number
r
m
(kh) such that
1 +
r
m
(kh)
m
=
e
δ(kh)
1/m
= exp
δ(kh)
m
In the limit of large m, there is an essentially constant principal amount
over each interval of length 1/m, so that over the interval [b, b + t), with
instantaneous compounding, the unit principal amount accumulates to
lim
m→∞
e
δ(b)/m
e
δ(b+h)/m
· · · e
δ(b+[mt]h)/m
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 11
= exp
¸
lim
m
1
m
[mt]−1
¸
k=0
δ(b +k/m)
= exp
t
0
δ(b +s) ds
The last step in this chain of equalities relates the concept of continuous
compounding to that of the Riemann integral. To specify continuoustime
varying interest rates in terms of eﬀective or APR rates, instead of the in
stantaneous nominal rates δ(t) , would require the simple conversion
r
APR
(t) = e
δ(t)
−1 , δ(t) = ln
1 + r
APR
(t)
Next consider the case of deposits s
0
, s
1
, . . . , s
k
, . . . , s
n
made at times
0, h, . . . , kh, . . . , nh, where h = 1/m is the given compoundingperiod,
and where nominal annualized instantaneous interestrates δ(kh) (with
compoundingperiod h) apply to the accrual of interest on the interval
[kh, (k + 1)h). If the accumulated bank balance just after time kh is
denoted by B
k
, then how can the accumulated bank balance be expressed
in terms of s
j
and δ(jh) ? Clearly
B
k+1
= B
k
·
1 +
i
(m)
(kh)
m
+ s
k+1
, B
0
= s
0
The preceding diﬀerence equation can be solved in terms of successive sum
mation and product operations acting on the sequences s
j
and δ(jh), as
follows. First deﬁne a function A
k
to denote the accumulated bank bal
ance at time kh for a unit invested at time 0 and earning interest with
instantaneous nominal interest rates δ(jh) (or equivalently, nominal rates
r
m
(jh) for compounding at multiples of h = 1/m) applying respectively
over the whole compoundingintervals [jh, (j +1)h), j = 0, . . . , k −1. Then
by deﬁnition, A
k
satisﬁes a homogeneous equation analogous to the previous
one, which together with its solution is given by
A
k+1
= A
k
·
1 +
r
m
(kh)
m
, A
0
= 1, A
k
=
k−1
¸
j=0
1 +
r
m
(jh)
m
The next idea is the second basic one in the theory of interest, namely the
idea of equivalent investments leading to the deﬁnition of present value of an
income stream/investment. Suppose that a stream of deposits s
j
accruing
12 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
interest with annualized nominal rates r
m
(jh) with respect to compounding
periods [jh, (j + 1)h) for j = 0, . . . , n is such that a single deposit D at
time 0 would accumulate by compound interest to give exactly the same
ﬁnal balance F
n
at time T = nh. Then the present cash amount D
in hand is said to be equivalent to the value of a contract to receive s
j
at time jh, j = 0, 1, . . . , n. In other words, the present value of the
contract is precisely D. We have just calculated that an amount 1 at time
0 compounds to an accumulated amount A
n
at time T = nh. Therefore,
an amount a at time 0 accumulates to a · A
n
at time T, and in particular
1/A
n
at time 0 accumulates to 1 at time T. Thus the present value of
1 at time T = nh is 1/A
n
. Now deﬁne G
k
to be the present value of the
stream of payments s
j
at time jh for j = 0, 1, . . . , k. Since B
k
was the
accumulated value just after time kh of the same stream of payments, and
since the present value at 0 of an amount B
k
at time kh is just B
k
/A
k
,
we conclude
G
k+1
=
B
k+1
A
k+1
=
B
k
(1 +r
m
(kh)/m)
A
k
(1 +r
m
(kh)/m)
+
s
k+1
A
k+1
, k ≥ 1 , G
0
= s
0
Thus G
k+1
−G
k
= s
k+1
/A
k+1
, and
G
k+1
= s
0
+
k
¸
i=0
s
i+1
A
i+1
=
k+1
¸
j=0
s
j
A
j
In summary, we have simultaneously found the solution for the accumulated
balance B
k
just after time kh and for the present value G
k
at time 0 :
G
k
=
k
¸
i=0
s
i
A
i
, B
k
= A
k
· G
k
, k = 0, . . . , n
The intuitive interpretation of the formulas just derived relies on the
following simple observations and reasoning:
(a) The present value at ﬁxed interest rate i of a payment of $1
exactly t years in the future, must be equal to the amount which must be
put in the bank at time 0 to accumulate at interest to an amount 1 exactly
t years later. Since (1 +i)
t
is the factor by which today’s deposit increases
in exactly t years, the present value of a payment of $1 delayed t years
is (1 +i)
−t
. Here t may be an integer or positive real number.
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 13
(b) Present values superpose additively: that is, if I am to receive a
payment stream C which is the sum of payment streams A and B, then the
present value of C is simply the sum of the present value of payment stream
A and the present value of payment stream B.
(c) As a consequence of (a) and (b), the present value for constant interest
rate i at time 0 of a payment stream consisting of payments s
j
at future
times t
j
, j = 0, . . . , n must be the summation
n
¸
j=0
s
j
(1 +i)
−t
j
(d) Finally, to combine present values on distinct time intervals, at pos
sibly diﬀerent interest rates, remark that if ﬁxed interestrate i applies to
the timeinterval [0, s] and the ﬁxed interest rate i
applies to the time
interval [s, t +s], then the present value at time s of a future payment of
a at time t + s is b = a(1 + i
)
−t
, and the present value at time 0 of
a payment b at time s is b (1 + i)
−s
. The idea of present value is that
these three payments, a at time s + t, b = a(1 + i
)
−t
at time s, and
b(1 +i)
−s
= a (1 +i
)
−t
(1 +i)
−s
at time 0 , are all equivalent.
(e) Applying the idea of paragraph (d) repeatedly over successive intervals
of length h = 1/m each, we ﬁnd that the present value of a payment of $1
at time t (assumed to be an integer multiple of h), where r(kh) is the
applicable eﬀective interest rate on timeinterval [kh, (k + 1)h], is
1/A(t) =
mt
¸
j=1
(1 +r(jh))
−h
where A(t) = A
k
is the amount previously derived as the accumulation
factor for the timeinterval [0, t].
The formulas just developed can be used to give the internal rate of return
r over the timeinterval [0, T] of a unit investment which pays amount s
k
at times t
k
, k = 0, . . . , n, 0 ≤ t
k
≤ T. This constant (eﬀective) interest
rate r is the one such that
n
¸
k=0
s
k
1 +r
−t
k
= 1
14 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
With respect to the APR r , the present value of a payment s
k
at a
time t
k
timeunits in the future is s
k
· (1 + r)
−t
k
. Therefore the stream
of payments s
k
at times t
k
, (k = 0, 1, . . . , n) becomes equivalent, for the
uniquely deﬁned interest rate r, to an immediate (time0) payment of 1.
Example 1 As an illustration of the notion of eﬀective interest rate, or in
ternal rate of return, suppose that you are oﬀered an investment option under
which a $ 10, 000 investment made now is expected to pay $ 300 yearly for
5 years (beginning 1 year from the date of the investment), and then $ 800
yearly for the following ﬁve years, with the principal of $ 10, 000 returned
to you (if all goes well) exactly 10 years from the date of the investment (at
the same time as the last of the $ 800 payments. If the investment goes
as planned, what is the eﬀective interest rate you will be earning on your
investment ?
As in all calculations of eﬀective interest rate, the present value of the
paymentstream, at the unknown interest rate r = i
APR
, must be bal
anced with the value (here $ 10, 000) which is invested. (That is because
the indicated payment stream is being regarded as equivalent to bank interest
at rate r.) The balance equation in the Example is obviously
10, 000 = 300
5
¸
j=1
(1 +r)
−j
+ 800
10
¸
j=6
(1 +r)
−j
+ 10, 000 (1 +r)
−10
The righthand side can be simpliﬁed somewhat, in terms of the notation
x = (1 +r)
−5
, to
300
1 +r
1 −x
1 −(1 +r)
−1
+
800x
(1 +r)
1 −x
1 −(1 +r)
−1
+ 10000 x
2
=
1 −x
r
(300 + 800x) + 10000x
2
(1.6)
Setting this simpliﬁed expression equal to the lefthand side of 10, 000 does
not lead to a closedform solution, since both x = (1+r)
−5
and r involve the
unknown r. Nevertheless, we can solve the equation roughly by ‘tabulating’
the values of the simpliﬁed righthand side as a function of r ranging in
increments of 0.005 from 0.035 through 0.075. (We can guess that the
correct answer lies between the minimum and maximum payments expressed
as a fraction of the principal.) This tabulation yields:
1.2. THEORY OF INTEREST 15
r .035 .040 .045 .050 .055 .060 .065 .070 .075
(1.6) 11485 11018 10574 10152 9749 9366 9000 8562 8320
From these values, we can see that the righthand side is equal to $ 10, 000
for a value of r falling between 0.05 and 0.055. Interpolating linearly to
approximate the answer yields r = 0.050 +0.005 ∗ (10000 −10152)/(9749 −
10152) = 0.05189, while an accurate equationsolver (the one in the Splus
function uniroot) ﬁnds r = 0.05186.
1.2.2 Continuoustime Payment Streams
There is a completely analogous development for continuoustime deposit
streams with continuous compounding. Suppose D(t) to be the rate per
unit time at which savings deposits are made, so that if we take m to go to
∞ in the previous discussion, we have D(t) = lim
m→∞
ms
[mt]
, where [·]
again denotes greatestinteger. Taking δ(t) to be the timevarying nominal
interest rate with continuous compounding, and B(t) to be the accumulated
balance as of time t (analogous to the quantity B
[mt]
= B
k
from before,
when t = k/m), we replace the previous diﬀerenceequation by
B(t +h) = B(t) (1 +hδ(t)) + hD(t) + o(h)
where o(h) denotes a remainder such that o(h)/h → 0 as h → 0.
Subtracting B(t) from both sides of the last equation, dividing by h, and
letting h decrease to 0, yields a diﬀerential equation at times t > 0 :
B
(t) = B(t) δ(t) +D(t) , A(0) = s
0
(1.7)
The method of solution of (1.7), which is the standard one from diﬀerential
equations theory of multiplying through by an integrating factor, again has
a natural interpretation in terms of present values. The integrating factor
1/A(t) = exp(−
t
0
δ(s) ds) is the present value at time 0 of a payment of
1 at time t, and the quantity B(t)/A(t) = G(t) is then the present value
of the deposit stream of s
0
at time 0 followed by continuous deposits at
rate D(t). The ratiorule of diﬀerentiation yields
G
(t) =
B
(t)
A(t)
−
B(t) A
(t)
A
2
(t)
=
B
(t) − B(t) δ(t)
A(t)
=
D(t)
A(t)
16 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
where the substitutuion A
(t)/A(t) ≡ δ(t) has been made in the third
expression. Since G(0) = B(0) = s
0
, the solution to the diﬀerential equation
(1.7) becomes
G(t) = s
0
+
t
0
D(s)
A(s)
ds , B(t) = A(t) G(t)
Finally, the formula can be specialized to the case of a constant unitrate
payment stream ( D(x) = 1, δ(x) = δ = ln(1 + i), 0 ≤ x ≤ T ) with
no initial deposit (i.e., s
0
= 0). By the preceding formulas, A(t) =
exp(t ln(1 + i)) = (1 + i)
t
, and the present value of such a payment stream
is
T
0
1 · exp(−t ln(1 +i)) dt =
1
δ
1 −(1 +i)
−T
Recall that the force of interest δ = ln(1 +i) is the limiting value obtained
from the nominal interest rate i
(m)
using the diﬀerencequotient representa
tion:
lim
m→∞
i
(m)
= lim
m→∞
exp((1/m) ln(1 +i)) − 1
1/m
= ln(1 +i)
The present value of a payment at time T in the future is, as expected,
1 +
i
(m)
m
−mT
= (1 +i)
−T
= exp(−δ T)
1.3 Exercise Set 1
The ﬁrst homework set covers the basic deﬁnitions in two areas: (i) prob
ability as it relates to events deﬁned from cohort lifetables, including the
theoretical machinery of population and conditional survival, distribution,
and density functions and the deﬁnition of expectation; (ii) the theory
of interest and present values, with special reference to the idea of income
streams of equal value at a ﬁxed rate of interest.
(1). For how long a time should $100 be left to accumulate at 5% interest
so that it will amount to twice the accumulated value (over the same time
period) of another $100 deposited at 3% ?
1.3. EXERCISE SET 1 17
(2). Use a calculator to answer the following numerically:
(a) Suppose you sell for $6,000 the right to receive for 10 years the amount
of $1,000 per year payable quarterly (beginning at the end of the ﬁrst quar
ter). What eﬀective rate of interest makes this a fair sale price ? (You will
have to solve numerically or graphically, or interpolate a tabulation, to ﬁnd
it.)
(b) $100 deposited 20 years ago has grown at interest to $235. The
interest was compounded twice a year. What were the nominal and eﬀective
interest rates ?
(c) How much should be set aside (the same amount each year) at the
beginning of each year for 10 years to amount to $1000 at the end of the 10th
year at the interest rate of part (b) ?
In the following problems, S(x) denotes the probability for a newborn
in a designated population to survive to exact age x . If a cohort life table
is under discussion, then the probability distribution relates to a randomly
chosen member of the newborn cohort.
(3). Assume that a population’s survival probability function is given by
S(x) = 0.1(100 −x)
1/2
, for 0 ≤ x ≤ 100.
(a) Find the probability that a life aged 0 will die between exact ages 19
and 36.
(b) Find the probability that a life aged 36 will die before exact age 51.
(4). (a) Find the expected age at death of a member of the population in
problem (3).
(b) Find the expected age at death of a life aged 20 in the population of
problem (3).
(5). Use the Illustrative Lifetable (Table 1.1) to calculate the following
probabilities. (In each case, assume that the indicated span of years runs
from birthday to birthday.) Find the probability
(a) that a life aged 26 will live at least 30 more years;
(b) that a life aged 22 will die between ages 45 and 55;
(c) that a life aged 25 will die either before age 50 or after the 70’th
18 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
birthday.
(6). In a certain population, you are given the following facts:
(i) The probability that two independent lives, respectively aged 25 and
45, both survive 20 years is 0.7.
(ii) The probability that a life aged 25 will survive 10 years is 0.9.
Then ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 35 will survive to age 65.
(7). Suppose that you borrowed $1000 at 6% APR, to be repaid in 5 years in
a lump sum, and that after holding the money idle for 1 year you invested the
money to earn 8% APR for the remaining four years. What is the eﬀective
interest rate you have earned (ignoring interest costs) over 5 years on the
$1000 which you borrowed ? Taking interest costs into account, what is the
present value of your proﬁt over the 5 years of the loan ? Also redo the
problem if instead of repaying all principal and interest at the end of 5 years,
you must make a payment of accrued interest at the end of 3 years, with the
additional interest and principal due in a single lumpsum at the end of 5
years.
(8). Find the total present value at 5% APR of payments of $1 at the end
of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 years and payments of $2 at the end of 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10
years.
1.4 Worked Examples
Example 1. How many years does it take for money to triple in value at
interest rate i ?
The equation to solve is 3 = (1 + i)
t
, so the answer is ln(3)/ ln(1 + i),
with numerical answer given by
t =
22.52 for i = 0.05
16.24 for i = 0.07
11.53 for i = 0.10
Example 2. Suppose that a sum of $1000 is borrowed for 5 years at 5%,
with interest deducted immediately in a lump sum from the amount borrowed,
1.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 19
and principal due in a lump sum at the end of the 5 years. Suppose further
that the amount received is invested and earns 7%. What is the value of the
net proﬁt at the end of the 5 years ? What is its present value (at 5%) as
of time 0 ?
First, the amount received is 1000 (1 − d)
5
= 1000/(1.05)
5
= 783.53,
where d = .05/1.05, since the amount received should compound to precisely
the principal of $1000 at 5% interest in 5 years. Next, the compounded value
of 783.53 for 5 years at 7% is 783.53 (1.07)
5
= 1098.94, so the net proﬁt
at the end of 5 years, after paying oﬀ the principal of 1000, is $98.94.
The present value of the proﬁt ought to be calculated with respect to the
‘going rate of interest’, which in this problem is presumably the rate of 5%
at which the money is borrowed, so is 98.94/(1.05)
5
= 77.52.
Example 3. For the following small cohort lifetable (ﬁrst 3 columns) with 5
agecategories, ﬁnd the probabilities for all values of [T], both uncondition
ally and conditionally for lives aged 2, and ﬁnd the expectation of both [T]
and (1.05)
−[T]−1
.
The basic information in the table is the ﬁrst column l
x
of numbers
surviving. Then d
x
= l
x
− l
x+1
for x = 0, 1, . . . , 4. The random variable
T is the lifelength for a randomly selected individual from the age=0 cohort,
and therefore P([T] = x) = P(x ≤ T < x + 1) = d
x
/l
0
. The conditional
probabilities given survivorship to agecategory 2 are simply the ratios with
numerator d
x
for x ≥ 2 , and with denominator l
2
= 65.
x l
x
d
x
P([T] = x) P([T] = xT ≥ 2) 1.05
−x−1
0 100 20 0.20 0 0.95238
1 80 15 0.15 0 0.90703
2 65 10 0.10 0.15385 0.86384
3 55 15 0.15 0.23077 0.82770
4 40 40 0.40 0.61538 0.78353
5 0 0 0 0 0.74622
In terms of the columns of this table, we evaluate from the deﬁnitions and
formula (1.2)
E([T]) = 0 · (0.20) + 1 · (0.15) + 2 · (0.10) + 3 · (0.15) + 4 · (0.40) = 2.4
20 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
E([T]  T ≥ 2) = 2 · (0.15385) + 3 · (0.23077) + 4 · (0.61538) = 3.4615
E(1.05
−[T]−1
) = 0.95238 · 0.20 + 0.90703 · 0.15 + 0.86384 · 0.10 +
+0.8277 · 0.15 + 0.78353 · 0.40 = 0.8497
The expectation of [T] is interpreted as the average per person in the cohort
lifetable of the number of completed whole years before death. The quantity
(1.05)
−[T]−1
can be interpreted as the present value at birth of a payment
of $1 to be made at the end of the year of death, and the ﬁnal expectation
calculated above is the average of that presentvalue over all the individuals
in the cohort lifetable, if the going rate of interest is 5%.
Example 4. Suppose that the deathrates q
x
= d
x
/l
x
for integer ages x in
a cohort lifetable follow the functional form
q
x
=
4 · 10
−4
for 5 ≤ x < 30
8 · 10
−4
for 30 ≤ x ≤ 55
between the ages x of 5 and 55 inclusive. Find analytical expressions for
S(x), l
x
, d
x
at these ages if l
0
= 10
5
, S(5) = .96.
The key formula expressing survival probabilities in terms of deathrates
q
x
is:
S(x + 1)
S(x)
=
l
x+1
l
x
= 1 −q
x
or
l
x
= l
0
· S(x) = (1 −q
0
)(1 −q
1
) · · · (1 −q
x−1
)
So it follows that for x = 5, . . . , 30,
S(x)
S(5)
= (1 −.0004)
x−5
, l
x
= 96000 · (0.9996)
x−5
so that S(30) = .940446, and for x = 31, . . . , 55,
S(x) = S(30) · (.9992)
x−30
= .940446 (.9992)
x−30
The deathcounts d
x
are expressed most simply through the preceding
expressions together with the formula d
x
= q
x
l
x
.
1.5. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 1 21
1.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 1
S(x) =
l
x
l
0
, d
x
= l
x
−l
x+1
p. 1
P(x ≤ T ≤ x +k) =
S(x) −S(x +k)
S(x)
=
l
x
−l
x+k
l
x
p. 2
f(x) = −S
(x) , S(x) −S(x +k) =
x+t
x
f(t) dt
pp. 4, 5
E
g(T)
T ≥ x
=
1
S(x)
∞
x
g(t) f(t) dt
p. 7
1 +i
APR
=
1 +
i
(m)
m
m
=
1 −
d
(m)
m
−m
= e
δ
p. 8
22 CHAPTER 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
Chapter 2
Theory of Interest and
Force of Mortality
The parallel development of Interest and Probability Theory topics continues
in this Chapter. For application in Insurance, we are preparing to value
uncertain payment streams in which times of payment may also be uncertain.
The interest theory allows us to express the present values of certain payment
streams compactly, while the probability material prepares us to ﬁnd and
interpret average or expected values of present values expressed as functions
of random lifetime variables.
This installment of the course covers: (a) further formulas and topics in
the pure (i.e., nonprobabilistic) theory of interest, and (b) more discussion
of lifetime random variables, in particular of force of mortality or hazard
rates, and theoretical families of life distributions.
2.1 More on Theory of Interest
The objective of this subsection is to deﬁne notations and to ﬁnd compact
formulas for present values of some standard payment streams. To this end,
newly deﬁned payment streams are systematically expressed in terms of pre
viously considered ones. There are two primary methods of manipulating
one paymentstream to give another for the convenient calculation of present
23
24 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
values:
• First, if one paymentstream can be obtained from a second one pre
cisely by delaying all payments by the same amount t of time, then
the present value of the ﬁrst one is v
t
multiplied by the present value
of the second.
• Second, if one paymentstream can be obtained as the superposition of
two other payment streams, i.e., can be obtained by paying the total
amounts at times indicated by either of the latter two streams, then
the present value of the ﬁrst stream is the sum of the present values of
the other two.
The following subsection contains several useful applications of these meth
ods. For another simple illustration, see Worked Example 2 at the end of the
Chapter.
2.1.1 Annuities & Actuarial Notation
The general present value formulas above will now be specialized to the case
of constant (instantaneous) interest rate δ(t) ≡ ln(1 + i) = δ at all times
t ≥ 0, and some very particular streams of payments s
j
at times t
j
,
related to periodic premium and annuity payments. The eﬀective interest
rate or APR is always denoted by i, and as before the mtimesperyear
equivalent nominal interest rate is denoted by i
(m)
. Also, from now on the
standard and convenient notation
v ≡ 1/(1 +i) = 1 /
1 +
i
(m)
m
m
will be used for the present value of a payment of $1 in one year.
(i) If s
0
= 0 and s
1
= · · · = s
nm
= 1/m in the discrete setting, where
m denotes the number of payments per year, and t
j
= j/m, then the
paymentstream is called an immediate annuity, and its present value G
n
is given the notation a
(m)
n
and is equal, by the geometricseries summation
formula, to
m
−1
nm
¸
j=1
1 +
i
(m)
m
−j
=
1 −(1 +i
(m)
/m)
−nm
m(1 +i
(m)
/m−1)
=
1
i
(m)
1 −
1 +
i
(m)
m
−nm
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 25
This calculation has shown
a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
i
(m)
(2.1)
All of these immediate annuity values, for ﬁxed v, n but varying m, are
roughly comparable because all involve a total payment of 1 per year.
Formula (2.1) shows that all of the values a
(m)
n
diﬀer only through the factors
i
(m)
, which diﬀer by only a few percent for varying m and ﬁxed i, as shown
in Table 2.1. Recall from formula (1.4) that i
(m)
= m{(1 +i)
1/m
−1}.
If instead s
0
= 1/m but s
nm
= 0, then the notation changes to ¨ a
(m)
n
,
the paymentstream is called an annuitydue, and the value is given by any
of the equivalent formulas
¨ a
(m)
n
= (1 +
i
(m)
m
) a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
m
+ a
(m)
n
=
1
m
+ a
(m)
n−1/m
(2.2)
The ﬁrst of these formulas recognizes the annuitydue paymentstream as
identical to the annuityimmediate paymentstream shifted earlier by the
time 1/m and therefore worth more by the accumulationfactor (1+i)
1/m
=
1 +i
(m)
/m. The third expression in (2.2) represents the annuitydue stream
as being equal to the annuityimmediate stream with the payment of 1/m
at t = 0 added and the payment of 1/m at t = n removed. The ﬁnal
expression says that if the time0 payment is removed from the annuitydue,
the remaining stream coincides with the annuityimmediate stream consisting
of nm−1 (instead of nm) payments of 1/m.
In the limit as m → ∞ for ﬁxed n, the notation a
n
denotes the
present value of an annuity paid instantaneously at constant unit rate, with
the limiting nominal interestrate which was shown at the end of the previous
chapter to be lim
m
i
(m)
= i
(∞)
= δ. The limiting behavior of the nominal
interest rate can be seen rapidly from the formula
i
(m)
= m
(1 +i)
1/m
− 1
= δ ·
exp(δ/m) −1
δ/m
since (e
z
−1)/z converges to 1 as z →0. Then by (2.1) and (2.2),
a
n
= lim
m→∞
¨ a
(m)
n
= lim
m→∞
a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
δ
(2.3)
26 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Table 2.1: Values of nominal interest rates i
(m)
(upper number) and
d
(m)
(lower number), for various choices of eﬀective annual interest rate
i and number m of compounding periods per year.
i = .02 .03 .05 .07 .10 .15
m = 2 .0199 .0298 .0494 .0688 .0976 .145
.0197 .0293 .0482 .0665 .0931 .135
3 .0199 .0297 .0492 .0684 .0968 .143
.0197 .0294 .0484 .0669 .0938 .137
4 .0199 .0297 .0491 .0682 .0965 .142
.0198 .0294 .0485 .0671 .0942 .137
6 .0198 .0296 .0490 .0680 .0961 .141
.0198 .0295 .0486 .0673 .0946 .138
12 .0198 .0296 .0489 .0678 .0957 .141
.0198 .0295 .0487 .0675 .0949 .139
A handy formula for annuitydue present values follows easily by recalling
that
1 −
d
(m)
m
=
1 +
i
(m)
m
−1
implies d
(m)
=
i
(m)
1 +i
(m)
/m
Then, by (2.2) and (2.1),
¨ a
(m)
n
= (1 −v
n
) ·
1 + i
(m)
/m
i
(m)
=
1 −v
n
d
(m)
(2.4)
In case m is 1, the superscript
(m)
is omitted from all of the annuity
notations. In the limit where n → ∞, the notations become a
(m)
∞
and
¨ a
(m)
∞
, and the annuities are called perpetuities (respectively immediate and
due) with presentvalue formulas obtained from (2.1) and (2.4) as:
a
(m)
∞
=
1
i
(m)
, ¨ a
(m)
∞
=
1
d
(m)
(2.5)
Let us now build some more general annuityrelated present values out of
the standard functions a
(m)
n
and ¨ a
(m)
n
.
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 27
(ii). Consider ﬁrst the case of the increasing perpetual annuitydue,
denoted (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
, which is deﬁned as the present value of a stream of
payments (k +1)/m
2
at times k/m, for k = 0, 1, . . . forever. Clearly the
present value is
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
=
∞
¸
k=0
m
−2
(k + 1)
1 +
i
(m)
m
−k
Here are two methods to sum this series, the ﬁrst purely mathematical, the
second with actuarial intuition. First, without worrying about the strict
justiﬁcation for diﬀerentiating an inﬁnite series termbyterm,
∞
¸
k=0
(k + 1) x
k
=
d
dx
∞
¸
k=0
x
k+1
=
d
dx
x
1 −x
= (1 −x)
−2
for 0 < x < 1, where the geometricseries formula has been used to sum
the second expression. Therefore, with x = (1 + i
(m)
/m)
−1
and 1 − x =
(i
(m)
/m)/(1 +i
(m)
/m),
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
= m
−2
i
(m)
/m
1 +i
(m)
/m
−2
=
1
d
(m)
2
=
¨ a
(m)
∞
2
and (2.5) has been used in the last step. Another way to reach the same result
is to recognize the increasing perpetual annuitydue as 1/m multiplied by
the superposition of perpetuitiesdue ¨ a
(m)
∞
paid at times 0, 1/m, 2/m, . . . ,
and therefore its present value must be ¨ a
(m)
∞
· ¨ a
(m)
∞
. As an aid in recognizing
this equivalence, consider each annuitydue ¨ a
(m)
∞
paid at a time j/m as
being equivalent to a stream of payments 1/m at time j/m, 1/m at
(j + 1)/m, etc. Putting together all of these payment streams gives a total
of (k+1)/m paid at time k/m, of which 1/m comes from the annuitydue
starting at time 0, 1/m from the annuitydue starting at time 1/m, up
to the payment of 1/m from the annuitydue starting at time k/m.
(iii). The increasing perpetual annuityimmediate (I
(m)
a)
(m)
∞
—
the same payment stream as in the increasing annuitydue, but deferred by
a time 1/m — is related to the perpetual annuitydue in the obvious way
(I
(m)
a)
(m)
∞
= v
1/m
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
= (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
(1 +i
(m)
/m) =
1
i
(m)
d
(m)
28 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(iv). Now consider the increasing annuitydue of ﬁnite duration
n years. This is the present value (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
of the paymentstream of
(k +1)/m
2
at time k/m, for k = 0, . . . , nm−1. Evidently, this payment
stream is equivalent to (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
minus the sum of n multiplied by an
annuitydue ¨ a
(m)
∞
starting at time n together with an increasing annuity
due (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
starting at time n. (To see this clearly, equate the payments
0 = (k + 1)/m
2
− n ·
1
m
− (k − nm + 1)/m
2
received at times k/m for
k ≥ nm.) Thus
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
= (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
∞
1 −(1 +i
(m)
/m)
−nm
−n¨ a
(m)
∞
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
−nm
= ¨ a
(m)
∞
¨ a
(m)
∞
−(1 +i
(m)
/m)
−nm
¨ a
(m)
∞
+n
= ¨ a
(m)
∞
¨ a
(m)
n
− nv
n
where in the last line recall that v = (1 + i)
−1
= (1 + i
(m)
/m)
−m
and
that ¨ a
(m)
n
= ¨ a
(m)
∞
(1 − v
n
). The latter identity is easy to justify either
by the formulas (2.4) and (2.5) or by regarding the annuitydue payment
stream as a superposition of the paymentstream up to time n −1/m and
the paymentstream starting at time n. As an exercise, ﬁll in details of a
second, intuitive veriﬁcation, analogous to the second veriﬁcation in pargraph
(ii) above.
(v). The decreasing annuity (D
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
is deﬁned as (the present
value of) a stream of payments starting with n/m at time 0 and decreasing
by 1/m
2
every timeperiod of 1/m, with no further payments at or after
time n. The easiest way to obtain the present value is through the identity
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
+ (D
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
= (n +
1
m
) ¨ a
(m)
n
Again, as usual, the method of proving this is to observe that in the payment
stream whose present value is given on the lefthand side, the payment
amount at each of the times j/m, for j = 0, 1, . . . , nm−1, is
j + 1
m
2
+ (
n
m
−
j
m
2
) =
1
m
(n +
1
m
)
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 29
2.1.2 Loan Amortization & Mortgage Reﬁnancing
The only remaining theoryofinterest topic to cover in this unit is the break
down between principal and interest payments in repaying a loan such as a
mortgage. Recall that the present value of a payment stream of amount c
per year, with c/m paid at times 1/m, 2/m, . . . , n −1/m, n/m, is c a
(m)
n
.
Thus, if an amount LoanAmt has been borrowed for a term of n years,
to be repaid by equal installments at the end of every period 1/m , at ﬁxed
nominal interest rate i
(m)
, then the installment amount is
Mortgage Payment =
LoanAmt
ma
(m)
n
= LoanAmt
i
(m)
m(1 −v
n
)
where v = 1/(1 +i) = (1 +i
(m)
/m)
−m
. Of the payment made at time (k +
1)/m, how much can be attributed to interest and how much to principal ?
Consider the present value at 0 of the debt per unit of LoanAmt less
accumulated amounts paid up to and including time k/m :
1 −ma
(m)
k/m
1
ma
(m)
n
= 1 −
1 −v
k/m
1 −v
n
=
v
k/m
−v
n
1 −v
n
The remaining debt, per unit of LoanAmt, valued just after time k/m,
is denoted from now on by B
n, k/m
. It is greater than the displayed present
value at 0 by a factor (1 +i)
k/m
, so is equal to
B
n, k/m
= (1 +i)
k/m
v
k/m
−v
n
1 −v
n
=
1 −v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
(2.6)
The amount of interest for a Loan Amount of 1 after time 1/m is (1 +
i)
1/m
− 1 = i
(m)
/m. Therefore the interest included in the payment at
(k + 1)/m is i
(m)
/m multiplied by the value B
n, k/m
of outstanding debt
just after k/m. Thus the next total payment of i
(m)
/(m(1 −v
n
)) consists
of the two parts
Amount of interest = m
−1
i
(m)
(1 −v
n−k/m
)/(1 −v
n
)
Amount of principal = m
−1
i
(m)
v
n−k/m
/(1 −v
n
)
By deﬁnition, the principal included in each payment is the amount of the
payment minus the interest included in it. These formulas show in particular
30 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
that the amount of principal repaid in each successive payment increases
geometrically in the payment number, which at ﬁrst seems surprising. Note
as a check on the displayed formulas that the outstanding balance B
n,(k+1)/m
immediately after time (k + 1)/m is recomputed as B
n, k/m
minus the
interest paid at (k + 1)/m, or
1 −v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
−
i
(m)
m
v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
=
1 −v
n−k/m
(1 +i
(m)
/m)
1 −v
n
=
1 −v
n−(k+1)/m
1 −v
n
=
1 −
a
(m)
(k+1)/m
a
(m)
n
v
−(k+1)/m
(2.7)
as was derived above by considering the accumulated value of amounts paid.
The general deﬁnition of the principal repaid in each payment is the excess
of the payment over the interest since the past payment on the total balance
due immediately following that previous payment.
2.1.3 Illustration on Mortgage Reﬁnancing
Suppose that a 30–year, nominalrate 8%, $100, 000 mortgage payable
monthly is to be reﬁnanced at the end of 8 years for an additional 15 years
(instead of the 22 which would otherwise have been remaining to pay it
oﬀ) at 6%, with a reﬁnancing closingcost amount of $1500 and 2 points.
(The points are each 1% of the reﬁnanced balance including closing costs,
and costs plus points are then extra amounts added to the initial balance
of the reﬁnanced mortgage.) Suppose that the new pattern of payments is
to be valued at each of the nominal interest rates 6%, 7%, or 8%, due
to uncertainty about what the interest rate will be in the future, and that
these valuations will be taken into account in deciding whether to take out
the new loan.
The monthly payment amount of the initial loan in this example was
$100, 000(.08/12)/(1 −(1 +.08/12)
−360
) = $733.76, and the present value as
of time 0 (the beginning of the old loan) of the payments made through the
end of the 8
th
year is ($733.76) · (12a
(12)
8
) = $51, 904.69. Thus the present
value, as of the end of 8 years, of the payments still to be made under the
old mortgage, is $(100, 000 −51, 904.69)(1 +.08/12)
96
= $91, 018.31. Thus,
if the loan were to be reﬁnanced, the new reﬁnanced loan amount would be
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 31
$91, 018.31 + 1, 500.00 = $92, 518.31. If 2 points must be paid in order to
lock in the rate of 6% for the reﬁnanced 15year loan, then this amount
is (.02)92518.31 = $1850.37 . The new principal balance of the reﬁnanced
loan is 92518.31 + 1850.37 = $94, 368.68, and this is the present value at a
nominal rate of 6% of the future loan payments, no matter what the term of
the reﬁnanced loan is. The new monthly payment (for a 15year duration) of
the reﬁnanced loan is $94, 368.68(.06/12)/(1 −(1 +.06/12)
−180
) = $796.34.
For purposes of comparison, what is the present value at the current
going rate of 6% (nominal) of the continuing stream of payments under
the old loan ? That is a 22year stream of monthly payments of $733.76,
as calculated above, so the present value at 6% is $733.76 · (12a
(12)
22
) =
$107, 420.21. Thus, if the new rate of 6% were really to be the correct
one for the next 22 years, and each loan would be paid to the end of its
term, then it would be a ﬁnancial disaster not to reﬁnance. Next, suppose
instead that right after reﬁnancing, the economic rate of interest would be
a nominal 7% for the next 22 years. In that case both streams of payments
would have to be revalued — the one before reﬁnancing, continuing another
22 years into the future, and the one after reﬁnancing, continuing 15 years
into the future. The respective present values (as of the end of the 8
th
year) at nominal rate of 7% of these two streams are:
Old loan: 733.76 (12a
(12)
22
) = $98, 700.06
New loan: 796.34 (12a
(12)
15
) = $88, 597.57
Even with these diﬀerent assumptions, and despite closingcosts and points,
it is well worth reﬁnancing.
Exercise: Suppose that you can forecast that you will in fact sell your
house in precisely 5 more years after the time when you are reﬁnancing. At
the time of sale, you would pay oﬀ the cash principal balance, whatever it
is. Calculate and compare the present values (at each of 6%, 7%, and 8%
nominal interest rates) of your payment streams to the bank, (a) if you
continue the old loan without reﬁnancing, and (b) if you reﬁnance to get
a 15year 6% loan including closing costs and points, as described above.
32 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
2.1.4 Computational illustration in Splus
All of the calculations described above are very easy to program, in any lan
guage from Pascal to Mathematica, and also on a programmable calculator;
but they are also very handily organized within a spreadsheet, which seems
to be the way that MBA’s, bankoﬃcials, and actuaries will learn to do them
from now on.
In this section, an Splus function (cf. Venables & Ripley 1998) is provided
to do some comparative reﬁnancing calculations. Concerning the syntax of
Splus, the only explanation necessary at this point is that the symbol <−
denotes assignment of an expression to a variable: A <−B means that the
variable A is assigned the value of expression B. Other syntactic elements
used here are common to many other computer languages: * denotes mul
tiplication, and
∧
denotes exponentiation.
The function RefExmp given below calculates mortgage payments, bal
ances for purposes of reﬁnancing both before and after application of ad
ministrative costs and points, and the present value under any interest rate
(not necessarily the ones at which either the original or reﬁnanced loans are
taken out) of the stream of repayments to the bank up to and including the
lumpsum payoﬀ which would be made, for example, at the time of selling
the house on which the mortgage loan was negotiated. The output of the
function is a list which, in each numerical example below, is displayed in
‘unlisted’ form, horizontally as a vector. Lines beginning with the symbol #
are commentlines.
The outputs of the function are as follows. Oldpayment is the monthly
payment on the original loan of faceamount Loan at nominal interest i
(12)
=
OldInt for a term of OldTerm years. NewBal is the balance B
n, k/m
of
formula (2.6) for n = OldTerm, m = 12, and k/m = RefTim, and the
reﬁnanced loan amount is a multiple 1+ Points of NewBal, which is equal
to RefBal + Costs. The new loan, at nominal interest rate NewInt, has
monthly payments Newpaymt for a term of NewTerm years. The loan is to
be paid oﬀ PayoﬀTim years after RefTim when the new loan commences,
and the ﬁnal output of the function is the present value at the start of the
reﬁnanced loan with nominal interest rate ValInt of the stream of payments
made under the reﬁnanced loan up to and including the lump sum payoﬀ.
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 33
Splus FUNCTION CALCULATING REFINANCE PAYMENTS & VALUES
RefExmp
function(Loan, OldTerm, RefTim, NewTerm, Costs, Points,
PayoffTim, OldInt, NewInt, ValInt)
{
# Function calculates present value of future payment stream
# underrefinanced loan.
# Loan = original loan amount;
# OldTerm = term of initial loan in years;
# RefTim = time in years after which to refinance;
# NewTerm = term of refinanced loan;
# Costs = fixed closing costs for refinancing;
# Points = fraction of new balance as additional costs;
# PayoffTim (no bigger than NewTerm) = time (from refinancing
# time at which new loan balance is to be paid off in
# cash (eg at house sale);
# The three interest rates OldInt, NewInt, ValInt are
# nominal 12timesperyear, and monthly payments
# are calculated.
vold < (1 + OldInt/12)^(12)
Oldpaymt < ((Loan * OldInt)/12)/(1  vold^OldTerm)
NewBal < (Loan * (1  vold^(OldTerm  RefTim)))/
(1  vold^OldTerm)
RefBal < (NewBal + Costs) * (1 + Points)
vnew < (1 + NewInt/12)^(12)
Newpaymt < ((RefBal * NewInt)/12)/(1  vnew^NewTerm)
vval < (1 + ValInt/12)^(12)
Value < (Newpaymt * 12 * (1  vval^PayoffTim))/ValInt +
(RefBal * vval^PayoffTim * (1  vnew^(NewTerm 
PayoffTim)))/(1  vnew^NewTerm)
list(Oldpaymt = Oldpaymt, NewBal = NewBal,
RefBal = RefBal, Newpaymt = Newpaymt, Value = Value)
}
34 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
We begin our illustration by reproducing the quantities calculated in the
previous subsection:
> unlist(RefExmp(100000, 30, 8, 15, 1500, 0.02, 15,
0.08, 0.06, 0.06))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
733.76 91018 94368 796.33 94368
Note that, since the payments under the new (reﬁnanced) loan are here
valued at the same interest rate as the loan itself, the present value Value of
all payments made under the loan must be equal to the the reﬁnanced loan
amount RefBal.
The comparisons of the previous Section between the original and reﬁ
nanced loans, at (nominal) interest rates of 6, 7, and 8 %, are all recapitulated
easily using this function. To use it, for example, in valuing the old loan at
7%, the arguments must reﬂect a ‘reﬁnance’ with no costs or points for a
period of 22 years at nominal rate 6%, as follows:
> unlist(RefExmp(100000,30,8,22,0,0,22,0.08,0.08,0.07))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
733.76 91018 91018 733.76 98701
(The small discrepancies between the values found here and in the previous
subsection are due to the rounding used there to express payment amounts
to the nearest cent.)
We consider next a numerical example showing breakeven point for reﬁ
nancing by balancing costs versus time needed to amortize them.
Suppose that you have a 30year mortage for $100,000 at nominal 9% ( =
i
(12)
), with level monthly payments, and that after 7 years of payments you
reﬁnance to obtain a new 30year mortgage at 7% nominal interest ( = i
(m)
for m = 12), with closing costs of $1500 and 4 points (i.e., 4% of the total
reﬁnanced amount including closing costs added to the initial balance), also
with level monthly payments. Figuring present values using the new interest
rate of 7%, what is the time K (to the nearest month) such that if both
loans — the old and the new — were to be paid oﬀ in exactly K years after
the time (the 7year mark for the ﬁrst loan) when you would have reﬁnanced,
2.1. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST 35
then the remaining paymentstreams for both loans from the time when you
reﬁnance are equivalent (i.e., have the same present value from that time) ?
We ﬁrst calculate the present value of payments under the new loan.
As remarked above in the previous example, since the same interest rate is
being used to value the payments as is used in ﬁguring the reﬁnanced loan,
the valuation of the new loan does not depend upon the time K to payoﬀ.
(It is ﬁgured here as though the payoﬀ time K were 10 years.)
> unlist(RefExmp(1.e5, 30,7,30, 1500,.04, 10, 0.09,0.07,0.07))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
804.62 93640 98946 658.29 98946
Next we compute the value of payments under the old loan, at 7% nominal
rate, also at payoﬀ time K = 10. For comparison, the value under the
old loan for payoﬀ time 0 (i.e., for cash payoﬀ at the time when reﬁnancing
would have occurred) coincides with the New Balance amount of $93640.
> unlist(RefExmp(1.e5, 30,7,23, 0,0, 10, 0.09,0.09,0.07))
Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value
804.62 93640 93640 804.62 106042
The values found in the same way when the payoﬀ time K is successively
replaced by 4, 3, 3.167, 3.25 are 99979, 98946, 98593, 98951. Thus, the
payoﬀtime K at which there is essentially no diﬀerence in present value
at nominal 7% between the old loan or the reﬁnanced loan with costs and
points (which was found to have Value 98946), is 3 years and 3 months
after reﬁnancing.
2.1.5 Coupon & Zerocoupon Bonds
In ﬁnance, an investor assessing the present value of a bond is in the same
situation as the bank receiving periodic level payments in repayment of a
loan. If the payments are made every 1/m year, with nominal coupon
interest rate i
(m)
, for a bond with face value $1000, then the payments
are precisely the interest on $1000 for 1/m year, or 1000 · i
(m)
/m.
For most corporate or government bonds, m = 4, although some bonds
36 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
have m = 2. If the bond is uncallable, which is assumed throughout this
discussion, then it entitles the holder to receive the stream of such payments
every 1/m year until a ﬁxed ﬁnal redemption date, at which the ﬁnal interest
payment coincides with the repayment of the principal of $1000. Suppose
that the time remaining on a bond until redemption is R (assumed to be
a wholenumber multiple of 1/m years), and that the nominal annualized
mperiodperyear interest rate, taking into account the creditworthiness of
the bond issuer together with current economic conditions, is r
(m)
which
will typically not be equal to i
(m)
. Then the current price P of the bond
is
P = 1000 i
(m)
a
(m)
R
, r
(m)
+ 1000 (1 +
r
(m)
m
)
−Rm
In this equation, the value P represents cash on hand. The ﬁrst term on
the righthand side is the present value at nominal interest rate r
(m)
of the
payments of i
(m)
1000/m every 1/m year, which amount to 1000i
(m)
every year for R years. The ﬁnal repayment of principal in R years
contributes the second term on the righthand side to the present value. As
an application of this formula, it is easy to check that a 10year $1000 bond
with nominal annualized quarterly interest rate i
(4)
= 0.06 would be priced
at $863.22 if the going nominal rate of interest were r
(4)
= 0.08.
A slightly diﬀerent valuation problem is presented by the zerocoupon
bond, a ﬁnancial instrument which pays all principal and interest, at a de
clared interest rate i = i
APR
, at the end of a term of n years, but pays
nothing before that time. When ﬁrst issued, a zerocoupon bond yielding
i
APR
which will pay $1000 at the end of n years is priced at its present
value
Π
n
= 1000 · (1 +i)
−n
(2.8)
(Transaction costs are generally ﬁgured into the price before calculating the
yield i.) At a time, n −R years later, when the zerocoupon bond has R
years left to run and the appropriate interest rate for valuation has changed
to r = r
APR
, the correct price of the bond is the present value of a payment
of 1000 R years in the future, or 1000(1 +r)
−R
.
For tax purposes, at least in the US, an investor is required (either by the
federal or state government, depending on the issuer of the bond) to declare
the amount of interest income received or deemed to have been received from
the bond in a speciﬁc calendar year. For an ordinary or coupon bond, the
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 37
year’s income is just the total i
(m)
· 1000 actually received during the year.
For a zerocoupon bond assumed to have been acquired when ﬁrst issued,
at price Π
n
, if the interest rate has remained constant at i = i
APR
since
the time of acquisition, then the interest income deemed to be received in
the year, also called the Original Issue Discount (OID), would simply be
the year’s interest Π
n
i
(m)
on the initial eﬀective face amount Π
n
of the
bond. That is because all accumulated value of the bond would be attributed
to OID interest income received year by year, with the principal remaining
the same at Π
n
. Assume next that the actual yearbyyear APR interest
rate is r(j) throughout the year [j, j + 1), for j = 0, 1, . . . n − 1, with
r(0) equal to i. Then, again because accumulated value over the initial
price is deemed to have been received in the form of yearly interest, the OID
should be Π
n
r(j) in the year [j, j + 1). The problematic aspect of this
calculation is that, when interest rates have ﬂuctuated a lot over the times
j = 0, 1, . . . , n − R − 1, the zerocoupon bond investor will be deemed to
have received income Π
n
r(j) in successive years j = 0, 1, . . . , n − R − 1,
corresponding to a total accumulated value of
Π
n
(1 +r(0)) (1 +r(1)) · · · (1 +r(n −R −1))
while the price 1000 (1 + r(n − R))
−R
for which the bond could be sold
may be very diﬀerent. The discrepancy between the ‘deemed received’ accu
mulated value and the ﬁnal actual value when the bond is redeemed or sold
must presumably be treated as a capital gain or loss. However, the present
author makes no claim to have presented this topic according to the views
of the Internal Revenue Service, since he has never been able to ﬁgure out
authoritatively what those views are.
2.2 Force of Mortality & Analytical Models
Up to now, the function S(x) called the “survivor” or “survival” function
has been deﬁned to be equal to the lifetable ratio l
x
/l
0
at all integer ages
x, and to be piecewise continuously diﬀerentiable for all positive real values
of x. Intuitively, for all positive real x and t, S(x) − S(x + t) is the
fraction of the initial lifetable cohort which dies between ages x and x+t,
and (S(x) −S(x +t))/S(x) represents the fraction of those alive at age x
who fail before x + t. An equivalent representation is S(x) =
∞
x
f(t) dt ,
38 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
where f(t) ≡ −S
(t) is called the failure density. If T denotes the random
variable which is the age at death for a newly born individual governed by
the same causes of failure as the lifetable cohort, then P(T ≥ x) = S(x),
and according to the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus,
lim
→0+
P(x ≤ T ≤ x +)
= lim
→0+
x+
x
f(u) du = f(x)
as long as the failure density is a continuous function.
Two further useful actuarial notations, often used to specify the theoret
ical lifetime distribution, are:
t
p
x
= P(T ≥ x +t  T ≥ x) = S(x +t)/S(x)
and
t
q
x
= 1 −
t
p
x
= P(T ≤ x +t  T ≥ x) = (S(x) −S(x +t))/S(x)
The quantity
t
q
x
is referred to as the agespeciﬁc death rate for periods
of length t. In the most usual case where t = 1 and x is an integer
age, the notation
1
q
x
is replaced by q
x
, and
1
p
x
is replaced by p
x
. The
rate q
x
would be estimated from the cohort life table as the ratio d
x
/l
x
of
those who die between ages x and x+1 as a fraction of those who reached
age x. The way in which this quantity varies with x is one of the most
important topics of study in actuarial science. For example, one important
way in which numerical analysis enters actuarial science is that one wishes
to interpolate the values q
x
smoothly as a function of x. The topic called
“Graduation Theory” among actuaries is the mathematical methodology of
Interpolation and Splinesmoothing applied to the raw function q
x
= d
x
/l
x
.
To give some idea what a realistic set of deathrates looks like, Figure 2.1
pictures the agespeciﬁc 1year deathrates q
x
for the simulated lifetable
given as Table 1.1 on page 3. Additional granularity in the deathrates can
be seen in Figure 2.2, where the logarithms of deathrates are plotted. After
a very high deathrate during the ﬁrst year of life (26.3 deaths per thousand
live births), there is a rough yearbyyear decline in deathrates from 1.45
per thousand in the second year to 0.34 per thousand in the eleventh year.
(But there were small increases in rate from ages 4 to 7 and from 8 to
9, which are likely due to statistical irregularity rather than real increases
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 39
in risk.) Between ages 11 and 40, there is an erratic but roughly linear
increase of deathrates per thousand from 0.4 to 3.0. However, at ages
beyond 40 there is a rapid increase in deathrates as a function of age.
As can be seen from Figure 2.2, the values q
x
seem to increase roughly
as a power c
x
where c ∈ [1.08, 1.10]. (Compare this behavior with the
GompertzMakeham Example (v) below.) This exponential behavior of the
agespeciﬁc deathrate for large ages suggests that the deathrates pictured
could reasonably be extrapolated to older ages using the formula
q
x
≈ q
78
· (1.0885)
x−78
, x ≥ 79 (2.9)
where the number 1.0885 was found as log(q
78
/q
39
)/(78 −39).
Now consider the behavior of
q
x
as gets small. It is clear that
q
x
must also get small, roughly proportionately to , since the probability of
dying between ages x and x + is approximately f(x) when gets
small.
Deﬁnition: The limiting deathrate
q
x
/ per unit time as 0 is
called by actuaries the force of mortality µ(x). In reliability theory or
biostatistics, the same function is called the failure intensity, failure rate, or
hazard intensity.
The reasoning above shows that for small ,
q
x
=
1
S(x)
x+
x
f(u) du −→
f(x)
S(x)
, 0
Thus
µ(x) =
f(x)
S(x)
=
−S
(x)
S(x)
= −
d
dx
ln(S(x))
where the chain rule for diﬀerentiation was used in the last step. Replacing
x by y and integrating both sides of the last equation between 0 and x,
we ﬁnd
x
0
µ(y) dy =
−ln(S(y))
x
0
= −ln(S(x))
since S(0) = 1. Similarly,
x+t
x
µ(y) dy = ln S(x) −ln S(x +t)
40 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
•
•
•
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • •
• •
•
•
• •
•
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
AgeSpecific Death Rates for Illustrative Life Table
Age in Years
A
g
e

S
p
e
c
i
f
i
c
D
e
a
t
h
R
a
t
e
0 20 40 60 80
0
.
0
0
.
0
2
0
.
0
4
0
.
0
6
0
.
0
8
Figure 2.1: Plot of agespeciﬁc deathrates q
x
versus x, for the simulated
illustrative life table given in Table 1.1, page 3.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 41
•
•
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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•
•
Logarithm of DeathRates versus Age
Age in years
l
o
g
(
D
e
a
t
h
r
a
t
e
)
0 20 40 60 80

8

7

6

5

4

3
for Illustrative Simulated LifeTable
Figure 2.2: Plot of logarithm log(q
x
) of agespeciﬁc deathrates as a function
of age x, for the simulated illustrative life table given in Table 1.1, page 3.
The rates whose logarithms are plotted here are the same ones shown in
Figure 2.1.
42 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Now exponentiate to obtain the useful formulas
S(x) = exp
−
x
0
µ(y) dy
¸
,
t
p
x
=
S(x +t)
S(x)
= exp
−
x+t
x
µ(y) dy
¸
Examples:
(i) If S(x) = (ω−x)/ω for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω (the uniform failure distribution
on [0, ω] ), then µ(x) = (ω −x)
−1
. Note that this hazard function increases
to ∞ as x increases to ω.
(ii) If S(x) = e
−µx
for x ≥ 0 (the exponential failure distribution on
[0, ∞) ), then µ(x) = µ is constant.
(iii) If S(x) = exp(−λx
γ
) for x ≥ 0, then mortality follows the Weibull
life distribution model with shape parameter γ > 0 and scale parameter λ.
The force of mortality takes the form
µ(x) = λγ x
γ−1
This model is very popular in engineering reliability. It has the ﬂexibility
that by choice of the shape parameter γ one can have
(a) failure rate increasing as a function of x ( γ > 1 ),
(b) constant failure rate ( γ = 1, the exponential model again),
or
(c) decreasing failure rate ( 0 < γ < 1 ).
But what one cannot have, in the examples considered so far, is a forceof
mortality function which decreases on part of the timeaxis and increases
elsewhere.
(iv) Two other models for positive random variables which are popular
in various statistical applications are the Gamma, with
S(x) =
∞
x
β
α
y
α−1
e
−βy
dy /
∞
0
z
α−1
e
−z
dz , α, β > 0
and the Lognormal, with
S(x) = 1 −Φ
ln x −m
σ
, m real, σ > 0
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 43
where
Φ(z) ≡
1
2
+
z
0
e
−u
2
/2
du
√
2π
is called the standard normal distribution function. In the Gamma case,
the expected lifetime is α/β, while in the Lognormal, the expectation is
exp(µ + σ
2
/2). Neither of these last two examples has a convenient or
interpretable forceofmortality function.
Increasing force of mortality intuitively corresponds to aging, where the
causes of death operate with greater intensity or eﬀect at greater ages. Con
stant force of mortality, which is easily seen from the formula S(x) =
exp(−
x
0
µ(y) dy) to be equivalent to exponential failure distribution, would
occur if mortality arose only from pure accidents unrelated to age. Decreas
ing force of mortality, which really does occur in certain situations, reﬂects
what engineers call “burnin”, where after a period of initial failures due to
loose connections and factory defects the nondefective devices emerge and
exhibit high reliability for a while. The decreasing force of mortality reﬂects
the fact that the devices known to have functioned properly for a short while
are known to be correctly assembled and are therefore highly likely to have a
standard length of operating lifetime. In human life tables, infant mortality
corresponds to burnin: risks of death for babies decrease markedly after the
oneyear period within which the most severe congenital defects and diseases
of infancy manifest themselves. Of course, human life tables also exhibit an
aging eﬀect at high ages, since the highmortality diseases like heart disease
and cancer strike with greatest eﬀect at higher ages. Between infancy and
late middle age, at least in western countries, hazard rates are relatively ﬂat.
This pattern of initial decrease, ﬂat middle, and ﬁnal increase of the force
ofmortality, seen clearly in Figure 2.1, is called a bathtub shape and requires
new survival models.
As shown above, the failure models in common statistical and reliability
usage either have increasing force of mortality functions or decreasing force of
mortality, but not both. Actuaries have developed an analytical model which
is somewhat more realistic than the preceding examples for human mortalty
at ages beyond childhood. While the standard form of this model does not
accommodate a bathtub shape for deathrates, a simple modiﬁcation of it
does.
44 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Example (v). (GompertzMakeham forms of the force of mortality). Sup
pose that µ(x) is deﬁned directly to have the form A + Bc
x
. (The Bc
x
term was proposed by Gompertz, the additive constant A by Makeham.
Thus the Gompertz forceofmortality model is the special case with A = 0,
or µ(x) = Bc
x
.) By choice of the parameter c as being respectively
greater than or less than 1, one can arrange that the forceofmortality
curve either be increasing or decreasing. Roughly realistic values of c for
human mortality will be only slightly greater than 1: if the Gompertz
(nonconstant) term in forceofmortality were for example to quintuple in
20 years, then c ≈ 5
1/20
= 1.084, which may be a reasonable value except
for very advanced ages. (Compare the comments made in connection with
Figures 2.1 and 2.2: for middle and higher ages in the simulated illustrative
life table of Table 1.1, which corresponds roughly to US male mortality of
around 1960, the ﬁgure of c was found to be roughly 1.09.) Note that in
any case the GompertzMakeham force of mortality is strictly convex (i.e.,
has strictly positive second derivative) when B > 0 and c = 1. The
GompertzMakeham family could be enriched still further, with further ben
eﬁts of realism, by adding a linear term Dx. If D < −B ln(c), with
0 < A < B, c > 1, then it is easy to check that
µ(x) = A + Bc
x
+ Dx
has a bathtub shape, initially decreasing and later increasing.
Figures 2.3 and 2.4 display the shapes of forceofmortality functions (iii)
(v) for various parameter combinations chosen in such a way that the ex
pected lifetime is 75 years. This restriction has the eﬀect of reducing the
number of free parameters in each family of examples by 1. One can
see from these pictures that the Gamma and Weibull families contain many
very similar shapes for forceofmortality curves, but that the lognormal and
Makeham families are quite diﬀerent.
Figure 2.5 shows survival curves from several analytical models plotted on
the same axes as the 1959 US male lifetable data from which Table 1.1 was
simulated. The previous discussion about bathtubshaped force of mortality
functions should have made it clear that none of the analytical models pre
sented could give a good ﬁt at all ages, but the Figure indicates the rather
good ﬁt which can be achieved to realistic lifetable data at ages 40 and
above. The models ﬁtted all assumed that S(40) = 0.925 and that for lives
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 45
aged 40, T −40 followed the indicated analytical form. Parameters for all
models were determined from the requirements of median age 72 at death
(equal by deﬁnition to the value t
m
for which S(t
m
) = 0.5) and probability
0.04 of surviving to age 90. Thus, all four plotted survival curves have been
designed to pass through the three points (40, 0.925), (72, 0.5), (90, 0.04).
Of the four ﬁtted curves, clearly the Gompertz agrees most closely with the
plotted points for 1959 US male mortality. The Gompertz curve has param
eters B = 0.00346, c = 1.0918, the latter of which is close to the value
1.0885 used in formula (2.9) to extrapolate the 1959 lifetable deathrates
to older ages.
2.2.1 Comparison of Forces of Mortality
What does it mean to say that one lifetime, with associated survival function
S
1
(t), has hazard (i.e. force of mortality) µ
1
(t) which is a constant multiple
κ at all ages of the force of mortality µ
2
(t) for a second lifetime with
survival function S
2
(t) ? It means that the cumulative hazard functions are
proportional, i.e.,
−ln S
1
(t) =
t
0
µ
1
(x)dx =
t
0
κµ
2
(x)dx = κ(−ln S
2
(t))
and therefore that
S
1
(t) = (S
2
(t))
κ
, all t ≥ 0
This remark is of especial interest in biostatistics and epidemiology when
the factor κ is allowed to depend (e.g., by a regression model ln(κ) = β·Z )
on other measured variables (covariates) Z. This model is called the (Cox)
ProportionalHazards model and is treated at length in books on survival data
analysis (Cox and Oakes 1984, Kalbﬂeisch and Prentice 1980) or biostatistics
(Lee 1980).
Example. Consider a setting in which there are four subpopulations of the
general population, categorized by the four combinations of values of two
binary covariates Z
1
, Z
2
= 0, 1. Suppose that these four combinations have
46 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Weibull(alpha,lambda)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
alpha=1
alpha=0.7
alpha=1.3
alpha=1.6
alpha=2
Gamma(beta,lambda)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
beta=1
beta=0.7
beta=1.3
beta=1.6
beta=2
Figure 2.3: Force of Mortality Functions for Weibull and Gamma Probability
Densities. In each case, the parameters are ﬁxed in such a way that the
expected survival time is 75 years.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 47
Lognormal(mu,sigma^2)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
sigma=0.2
sigma=0.4
sigma=0.6
sigma=1.6
sigma=2
Makeham(A,B,c)
Age (years)
H
a
z
a
r
d
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
2
0
0
.
0
2
5
A=0.0018, B=0.0010, c=1.002
A=0.0021,B=0.0070, c=1.007
A=0.003, B=0.0041, c=1.014
A=0.0041, B=0.0022, c=1.022
Figure 2.4: Force of Mortality Functions for Lognormal and Makeham Den
sities. In each case, the parameters are ﬁxed in such a way that the expected
survival time is 75 years.
48 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Plots of Theoretical Survival Curves
Age (years)
S
u
r
v
i
v
a
l
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
.
0
0
.
2
0
.
4
0
.
6
0
.
8
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plotted points from US 1959 male lifetable
Lognormal(3.491, .246^2)
Weibull(3.653, 1.953e6)
Gamma(14.74, 0.4383)
Gompertz(3.46e3, 1.0918)
Figure 2.5: Theoretical survival curves, for ages 40 and above, plotted as
lines for comparison with 1959 US male lifetable survival probabilities plot
ted as points. The four analytical survival curves — Lognormal, Weibull,
Gamma, and Gompertz — are taken as models for ageatdeath minus 40,
so if S
theor
(t) denotes the theoretical survival curve with indicated parame
ters, the plotted curve is (t, 0.925 · S
theor
(t −40)). The parameters of each
analytical model were determined so that the plotted probabilities would be
0.925, 0.5, 0.04 respectively at t = 40, 72, 90.
2.2. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS 49
respective conditional probabilities for lives aged x (or relative frequencies in
the general population aged x)
P
x
(Z
1
= Z
2
= 0) = 0.15 , P
x
(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 1) = 0.2
P
x
(Z
1
= 1, Z
2
= 0) = 0.3 , P
x
(Z
1
= Z
2
= 1) = 0.35
and that for a life aged x and all t > 0,
P(T ≥ x +t  T ≥ x, Z
1
= z
1
, Z
2
= z
2
) = exp(−2.5 e
0.7z
1
−.8z
2
t
2
/20000)
It can be seen from the conditional survival function just displayed that the
forces of mortality at ages greater than x are
µ(x +t) = (2.5 e
0.7z
1
−.8z
2
) t/10000
so that the force of mortality at all ages is multiplied by e
0.7
= 2.0138 for
individuals with Z
1
= 1 versus those with Z
1
= 0, and is multiplied by
e
−0.8
= 0.4493 for those with Z
2
= 1 versus those with Z
2
= 0. The eﬀect
on agespeciﬁc deathrates is approximately the same. Direct calculation
shows for example that the ratio of agespeciﬁc death rate at age x+20 for
individuals in the group with (Z
1
= 1, Z
2
= 0) versus those in the group with
(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 0) is not precisely e
0.7
= 2.014, but rather
1 −exp(−2.5e
0.7
((21
2
−20
2
)/20000)
1 −exp(−2.5((21
2
−20
2
)/20000)
= 2.0085
Various calculations, related to the fractions of the surviving population at
various ages in each of the four population subgroups, can be performed
easily . For example, to ﬁnd
P(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 1  T ≥ x + 30)
we proceed in several steps (which correspond to an application of Bayes’
rule, viz. Hogg and Tanis 1997, sec. 2.5, or Larson 1982, Sec. 2.6):
P(T ≥ x+30, Z
1
= 0 Z
2
= 1 T ≥ x) = 0.2 exp(−2.5e
−0.8
30
2
20000
) = 0.1901
and similarly
P(T ≥ x + 30  T ≥ x) = 0.15 exp(−2.5(30
2
/20000)) + 0.1901 +
50 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
+ 0.3 exp(−2.5 ∗ e
0.7
30
2
20000
) + 0.35 exp(−2.5e
0.7−0.8
30
2
20000
) = 0.8795
Thus, by deﬁnition of conditional probabilities (restricted to the cohort of
lives aged x), taking ratios of the last two displayed quantities yields
P(Z
1
= 0, Z
2
= 1  T ≥ x + 30) =
0.1901
0.8795
= 0.2162
2.
In biostatistics and epidemiology, the measured variables Z = (Z
1
, . . . , Z
p
)
recorded for each individual in a survival study might be: indicator of a spe
ciﬁc disease or diagnostic condition (e.g., diabetes, high blood pressure, spe
ciﬁc electrocardiogram anomaly), quantitative measurement of a riskfactor
(dietary cholesterol, percent caloric intake from fat, relative weighttoheight
index, or exposure to a toxic chemical), or indicator of type of treatment or
intervention. In these ﬁelds, the objective of such detailed models of covari
ate eﬀects on survival can be: to correct for incidental individual diﬀerences
in assessing the eﬀectiveness of a treatment; to create a prognostic index for
use in diagnosis and choice of treatment; or to ascertain the possible risks and
beneﬁts for health and survival from various sorts of lifestyle interventions.
The multiplicative eﬀects of various riskfactors on agespeciﬁc death rates
are often highlighted in the news media.
In an insurance setting, categorical variables for risky lifestyles, occupa
tions, or exposures might be used in riskrating, i.e., in individualizing insur
ance premiums. While riskrating is used routinely in casualty and property
insurance underwriting, for example by increasing premiums in response to
recent claims or by taking location into account, it can be politically sen
sitive in a lifeinsurance and pension context. In particular, while gender
diﬀerences in mortality can be used in calculating insurance and annuity
premiums, as can certain lifestyle factors like smoking, it is currently illegal
to use racial and genetic diﬀerences in this way.
All life insurers must be conscious of the extent to which their policyhold
ers as a group diﬀer from the general population with respect to mortality.
Insurers can collect special mortality tables on special groups, such as em
ployee groups or voluntary organizations, and regressiontype models like the
Cox proportionalhazards model may be useful in quantifying group mortal
ity diﬀerences when the specialgroup mortality tables are not based upon
2.3. EXERCISE SET 2 51
large enough cohorts for long enough times to be fully reliable. See Chapter
6, Section 6.3, for discussion about the modiﬁcation of insurance premiums
for select groups.
2.3 Exercise Set 2
(1). The sum of the present value of $1 paid at the end of n years and
$1 paid at the end of 2n years is $1. Find (1 +r)
2n
, where r = annual
interest rate, compounded annually.
(2). Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime Z with
continuous density function
f
Z
(t) =
1
360
1 +
t
10
, for 20 ≤ t ≤ 80
and 0 for other values of t.
(a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must
pay his heirs $10
6
· (1.4 −Z/50) at the exact date of his death if this occurs
between ages 20 and 70, then what is the expected payment ?
(b) If the value of the deathpayment described in (a) should properly be
discounted by the factor exp(−0.08 · (Z −20)), i.e. by the nominal interest
rate of e
0.08
− 1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment,
then what is the expected present value of the payment under the insurance
contract ?
(3). Suppose that a continuous random variable T has hazard rate function
(= force of mortality)
h(t) = 10
−3
·
7.0 −0.5t + 2e
t/20
, t > 0
This is a legitimate hazard rate of GompertzMakeham type since its mini
mum, which occurs at t = 20 ln(5), is (17−10 ln(5)) · 10
−4
= 9.1 · 10
−5
> 0.
(a) Construct a cohort lifetable with h(t) as “force of mortality”, based
on integer ages up to 70 and cohortsize (= “radix”) l
0
= 10
5
. (Give the
numerical entries, preferably by means of a little computer program. If you
do the arithmetic using handcalculators and/or tables, stop at age 20.)
52 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(b) What is the probability that the random variable T exceeds 30, given
that it exceeds 3 ? Hint: ﬁnd a closedform formula for S(t) = P(T ≥ t).
(4). Do the MortgageReﬁnancing exercise given in the Illustrative on mort
gage reﬁnancing at the end of Section 2.1.
(5). (a) The mortality pattern of a certain population may be described as
follows: out of every 98 lives born together, one dies annually until there
are no survivors. Find a simple function that can be used as S(x) for this
population, and ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 30 will survive to attain
age 35.
(b) Suppose that for x between ages 12 and 40 in a certain population,
10% of the lives aged x die before reaching age x+1 . Find a simple function
that can be used as S(x) for this population, and ﬁnd the probability that
a life aged 30 will survive to attain age 35.
(6). Suppose that a survival distribution (i.e., survival function based on
a cohort life table) has the property that
1
p
x
= γ · (γ
2
)
x
for some ﬁxed γ
between 0 and 1, for every real ≥ 0. What does this imply about S(x) ?
(Give as much information about S as you can. )
(7). If the instantaneous interest rate is r(t) = 0.01 t for 0 ≤ t ≤ 3, then
ﬁnd the equivalent single eﬀective rate of interest or APR for money invested
at interest over the interval 0 ≤ t ≤ 3 .
(8). Find the accumulated value of $100 at the end of 15 years if the nominal
interest rate compounded quarterly (i.e., i
(4)
) is 8% for the ﬁrst 5 years, if
the eﬀective rate of discount is 7% for the second 5 years, and if the nominal
rate of discount compounded semiannually (m = 2) is 6% for the third 5
years.
(9). Suppose that you borrow $1000 for 3 years at 6% APR, to be repaid
in level payments every six months (twice yearly).
(a) Find the level payment amount P.
(b) What is the present value of the payments you will make if you skip
the 2nd and 4th payments ? (You may express your answer in terms of P. )
(10). A survival function has the form S(x) =
c−x
c+x
. If a mortality table
is derived from this survival function with a radix l
0
of 100,000 at age 0,
2.3. EXERCISE SET 2 53
and if l
35
= 44, 000 :
(i) What is the terminal age of the table ?
(ii) What is the probability of surviving from birth to age 60 ?
(iii) What is the probability of a person at exact age 10 dying between
exact ages 30 and 45 ?
(11). A separate life table has been constructed for each calendar year of
birth, Y , beginning with Y = 1950. The mortality functions for the
various tables are denoted by the appropriate superscript
Y
. For each Y
and for all ages x
µ
Y
x
= A · k(Y ) + Bc
x
, p
Y +1
x
= (1 +r) p
Y
x
where k is a function of Y alone and A, B, r are constants (with r > 0).
If k(1950) = 1, then derive a general expression for k(Y ).
(12). A standard mortality table follows Makeham’s Law with force of
mortality
µ
x
= A + Bc
x
at all ages x
A separate, higherrisk mortality table also follows Makeham’s Law with
force of mortality
µ
∗
x
= A
∗
+ B
∗
c
x
at all ages x
with the same constant c. If for all starting ages the probability of surviving
6 years according to the higherrisk table is equal to the probability of
surviving 9 years according to the standard table, then express each of A
∗
and B
∗
in terms of A, B, c.
(13). A homeowner borrows $100, 000 at 7% APR from a bank, agreeing
to repay by 30 equal yearly payments beginning one year from the time of
the loan.
(a) How much is each payment ?
(b) Suppose that after paying the ﬁrst 3 yearly payments, the homeowner
misses the next two (i.e. pays nothing on the 4
th
and 5
th
anniversaries of
the loan). Find the outstanding balance at the 6
th
anniversary of the loan,
ﬁgured at 7% ). This is the amount which, if paid as a lump sum at time
54 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
6, has present value together with the amounts already paid of $100, 000 at
time 0.
(14). A deposit of 300 is made into a fund at time t = 0. The fund pays
interest for the ﬁrst three years at a nominal monthly rate d
(12)
of discount.
From t = 3 to t = 7, interest is credited according to the force of interest
δ
t
= 1/(3t + 3). As of time t = 7, the accumulated value of the fund is
574. Calculate d
(12)
.
(15). Calculate the price at which you would sell a $10, 000 30year coupon
bond with nominal 6% semiannual coupon (n = 30, m − 2, i
(m)
= 0.06),
15 years after issue, if for the next 15 years, the eﬀective interest rate for
valuation is i
APR
= 0.07.
(16). Calculate the price at which you would sell a 30year zerocoupon bond
with face amount $10, 000 initially issued 15 years ago with i = i
APR
= 0.06,
if for the next 15 years, the eﬀective interest rate for valuation is i
APR
= 0.07.
2.4 Worked Examples
Example 1. How large must a halfyearly payment be in order that the stream
of payments starting immediately be equivalent (in present value terms) at
6% interest to a lumpsum payment of $5000, if the paymentstream is to
last (a) 10 years, (b) 20 years, or (c) forever ?
If the payment size is P, then the balance equation is
5000 = 2 P · ¨ a
(2)
n
= 2 P
1 −1.06
−n
d
(2)
Since d
(2)
= 2(1 −1/
√
1.06) = 2 · 0.02871, the result is
P = (5000 · 0.02871)/(1 −1.06
−n
) = 143.57/(1 −1.06
−n
)
So the answer to part (c), in which n = ∞, is $143.57. For parts (a) and
(b), respectively with n = 10 and 20, the answers are $325.11, $208.62.
Example 2. Assume m is divisible by 2. Express in two diﬀer
ent ways the present value of the perpetuity of payments 1/m at times
1/m, 3/m, 5/m, . . . , and use either one to give a simple formula.
2.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 55
This example illustrates the general methods enunciated at the beginning
of Section 2.1. Observe ﬁrst of all that the speciﬁed paymentstream is
exactly the same as a stream of payments of 1/m at times 0, 2/m, 4/m, . . .
forever, deferred by a time 1/m. Since this paymentstream starting at 0
is exactly onehalf that of the stream whose present value is ¨ a
(m/2)
∞
, a ﬁrst
present value expression is
v
1/m
1
2
¨ a
(m/2)
∞
A second way of looking at the paymentstream at odd multiples of 1/m
is as the perpetuitydue payment stream ( 1/m at times k/m for all
k ≥ 0) minus the paymentstream discussed above of amounts 1/m at
times 2k/m for all nonnegative integers k. Thus the present value has the
second expression
¨ a
(m)
∞
−
1
2
¨ a
(m/2)
∞
Equating the two expressions allows us to conclude that
1
2
¨ a
(m/2)
∞
= ¨ a
(m)
∞
(1 + v
1/m
)
Substituting this into the ﬁrst of the displayed presentvalue expressions, and
using the simple expression 1/d
(m)
for the present value of the perpetuity
due, shows that that the present value requested in the Example is
1
d
(m)
·
v
1/m
1 + v
1/m
=
1
d
(m)
(v
−1/m
+ 1)
=
1
d
(m)
(2 +i
(m)
/m)
and this answer is valid whether or not m is even.
Example 3. Suppose that you are negotiating a carloan of $10, 000. Would
you rather have an interest rate of 4% for 4 years, 3% for 3 years, 2% for
2 years, or a cash discount of $500 ? Show how the answer depends upon
the interest rate with respect to which you calculate present values, and give
numerical answers for present values calculated at 6% and 8%. Assume that
all loans have monthly payments paid at the beginning of the month (e.g., the
4 year loan has 48 monthly payments paid at time 0 and at the ends of 47
succeeding months).
The monthly payments for an nyear loan at interestrate i is 10000/
(12 ¨ a
(12)
n
) = (10000/12) d
(12)
/(1 − (1 + i)
−n
). Therefore, the present value
56 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
at interestrate r of the nyear monthly paymentstream is
10000 ·
1 −(1 +i)
−1/12
1 −(1 +r)
−1/12
·
1 −(1 +r)
−n
1 −(1 +i)
−n
Using interestrate r = 0.06, the present values are calculated as follows:
For 4year 4% loan: $9645.77
For 3year 3% loan: $9599.02
For 2year 2% loan: $9642.89
so that the most attractive option is the cash discount (which would make
the present value of the debt owed to be $9500). Next, using interestrate
r = 0.08, the present values of the various options are:
For 4year 4% loan: $9314.72
For 3year 3% loan: $9349.73
For 2year 2% loan: $9475.68
so that the most attractive option in this case is the 4year loan. (The cash
discount is now the least attractive option.)
Example 4. Suppose that the force of mortality µ(y) is speciﬁed for exact
ages y ranging from 5 to 55 as
µ(y) = 10
−4
· (20 −0.530 −y)
Then ﬁnd analytical expressions for the survival probabilities S(y) for exact
ages y in the same range, and for the (oneyear) deathrates q
x
for integer
ages x = 5, . . . , 54, assuming that S(5) = 0.97.
The key formulas connecting force of mortality and survival function are
here applied separately on the ageintervals [5, 30] and [30, 55], as follows.
First for 5 ≤ y ≤ 30,
S(y) = S(5) exp(−
y
5
µ(z) dz) = 0.97 exp
−10
−4
(5(y−5)+0.25(y
2
−25))
so that S(30) = 0.97 e
−0.034375
= 0.93722, and for 30 ≤ y ≤ 55
S(y) = S(30) exp
−10
−4
y
30
(20 + 0.5(30 −z)) dz
2.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 57
= 0.9372 exp
−.002(y −30) + 2.5 · 10
−5
(y −30)
2
The deathrates q
x
therefore have two diﬀerent analytical forms: ﬁrst, in
the case x = 5, . . . , 29,
q
x
= S(x + 1)/S(x) = exp
−5 · 10
−5
(10.5 +x)
and second, in the case x = 30, . . . , 54,
q
x
= exp
−.002 + 2.5 · 10
−5
(2(x −30) + 1)
58 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
2.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2
v = 1/(1 +i)
p. 24
a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
i
(m)
, ¨ a
(m)
n
=
1 −v
n
d
(m)
pp. 25–25
a
n
m = v
1/m
¨ a
n
m
p. 25
¨ a
(∞)
n
= a
n
∞ = a
n
=
1 −v
n
δ
p. 25
a
(m)
∞
=
1
i
(m)
, ¨ a
∞
m =
1
d
(m)
p. 26
(I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
= ¨ a
(m)
∞
¨ a
(m)
n
− nv
n
p. 28
(D
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
= (n +
1
m
) ¨ a
(m)
n
− (I
(m)
¨ a)
(m)
n
p. 28
nyr m’thly Mortgage Paymt :
Loan Amt
m¨ a
(m)
n
p. 29
2.5. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 2 59
nyr Mortgage Bal. at
k
m
+ : B
n,k/m
=
1 −v
n−k/m
1 −v
n
p. 30
t
p
x
=
S(x +t)
S(x)
= exp
−
t
0
µ(x +s) ds
p. 38
t
p
x
= 1 −
t
p
x
p. 38
q
x
=
1
q
x
=
d
x
l
x
, p
x
=
1
p
x
= 1 − q
x
p. 38
µ(x +t) =
f(x +t)
S(x +t)
= −
∂
∂t
ln S(x +t) = −
∂
∂t
ln l
x+t
p. 39
S(x) = exp( −
x
0
µ(y) dy)
p. 42
Unif. Failure Dist.: S(x) =
ω −x
ω
, f(x) =
1
ω
, 0 ≤ x ≤ ω
p. 42
Expon. Dist.: S(x) = e
−µx
, f(x) = µe
−µx
, µ(x) = µ , x > 0
p. 42
60 CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Weibull. Dist.: S(x) = e
−λx
γ
, µ(x) = λγx
γ−1
, x > 0
p. 42
Makeham: µ(x) = A +Bc
x
, x ≥ 0
Gompertz: µ(x) = Bc
x
, x ≥ 0
S(x) = exp
−Ax −
B
ln c
(c
x
−1)
p. 44
Chapter 3
More Probability Theory for
Life Tables
3.1 Interpreting Force of Mortality
This Section consists of remarks, relating the force of mortality for a con
tinuously distributed lifetime random variable T (with continuous density
function f ) to conditional probabilities for discrete random variables. In
deed, for m large (e.g. as large as 4 or 12), the discrete random variable
[Tm]/m gives a close approximation to T and represents the attained age
at death measured in wholenumber multiples of fractions h = one m
th
of
a year. (Here [·] denotes the greatest integer less than or equal to its real
argument.) Since surviving an additional time t = nh can be viewed as
successively surviving to reach times h, 2h, 3h, . . . , nh, and since (by the
deﬁnition of conditional probability)
P(A
1
∩ · · · ∩ A
n
) = P(A
1
) · P(A
2
A
1
) · · · P(A
n
A
1
∩ · · · ∩ A
n−1
)
we have (with the interpretation A
k
= {T ≥ x +kh} )
nh
p
x
=
h
p
x
·
h
p
x+h
·
h
p
x+2h
· · ·
h
p
x+(n−1)h
The form in which this formula is most often useful is the case h = 1: for
integers k ≥ 2,
k
p
x
= p
x
· p
x+1
· p
x+2
· · · p
x+k−1
(3.1)
61
62 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Every continuous waitingtime random variable can be approximated by
a discrete random variable with possible values which are multiples of a
ﬁxed small unit h of time, and therefore the random survival time can
be viewed as the (ﬁrst failure among a) succession of results of a sequence
of independent coinﬂips with successive probabilities
h
p
kh
of heads. By
the Mean Value Theorem applied up to seconddegree terms on the function
S(x +h) expanded about h = 0,
S(x+h) = S(x) + hS
(x) +
h
2
2
S
(x+τh) = S(x) −hf(x) −
h
2
2
f
(x+τh)
for some 0 < τ < 1, if f is continuously diﬀerentiable. Therefore, using
the deﬁnition of µ(x) as f(x)/S(x) given on page 39,
h
p
x
= 1 − h ·
S(x) −S(x +h)
hS(x)
= 1 − h
µ(x) +
h
2
f
(x +τh)
S(x)
Going in the other direction, the previously derived formula
h
p
x
= exp
−
x+h
x
µ(y) dy
can be interpreted by considering the fraction of individuals observed to reach
age x who thereafter experience hazard of mortality µ(y) dy on successive
inﬁnitesimal intervals [y, y+dy] within [x, x+h). The lives aged x survive
to age x + h with probability equal to a limiting product of inﬁnitesimal
terms (1−µ(y) dy) ∼ exp(−µ(y) dy), yielding an overall conditional survival
probability equal to the negative exponential of accumulated hazard over
[x, x +h).
3.2 Interpolation Between Integer Ages
There is a Taylorseries justiﬁcation of “actuarial approximations” for life
table related functions. Let g(x) be a smooth function with small g
(x) ,
and let T be the lifetime random variable (for a randomly selected member
of the population represented by the lifetable), with [T] denoting its integer
part, i.e., the largest integer k for which k ≤ T. Then by the Mean Value
3.2. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES 63
Theorem, applied up to seconddegree terms for the function g(t) = g(k+u)
(with t = k +u, k = [t]) expanded in u ∈ (0, 1) about 0,
E(g(T)) = E(g([T]) + (T −[T]) g
([T]) +
1
2
(T −[T])
2
g
(T
∗
)) (3.2)
where T
∗
lies between [T] and T. Now in case the rateofchange of
g
is very small, the third term may be dropped, providing the approximate
formula
E(g(T)) ≈ Eg([T]) + E
(T −[T]) g
([T])
(3.3)
Simpliﬁcations will result from this formula especially if the behavior of con
ditional probabilities concerning T − [T] given [T] = k turns out not to
depend upon the value of k. (This property can be expressed by saying
that the random integer [T] and random fractional part T − [T] of the
age at death are independent random variables.) This is true in particular
if it is also true that P(T − [T] ≥ s  k ≤ T < k + 1) is approximately
1 − s for all k and for 0 < s < 1, as would be the case if the density
of T were constant on each interval [k, k + 1) (i.e., if the distribution
of T were conditionally uniform given [T] ): then T − [T] would be
uniformly distributed on [0, 1), with density f(s) = 1 for 0 ≤ s < 1. Then
E((T −[T]) g
([T])) = E(g
([T]))/2, implying by (3.3) that
E(g(T)) ≈ E(g([T]) +
1
2
g
([T])) ≈ E
g([T] +
1
2
)
where the last step follows by the ﬁrstorder Taylor approximation
g(k + 1/2) ≈ g(k) +
1
2
g
(k)
One particular application of the ideas of the previous paragraph concern
socalled expected residual lifetimes. Demographers tabulate, for all integer
ages x in a speciﬁed population, what is the average number e
x
of remaining
years of life to individuals who have just attained exact age x. This is a
quantity which, when compared across national or generational boundaries,
can give some insight into the way societies diﬀer and change over time.
In the setting of the previous paragraph, we are considering the function
g(t) = t −x for a ﬁxed x, and calculating expectations E(·) conditionally
for a life aged x, i.e. conditionally given T ≥ x. In this setting, the
64 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
approximation described above says that if we can treat the density of T
as constant within each whole year of attained integer age, then
Mean residual lifetime = e
x
≈
◦
e
x
+
1
2
where
◦
e
x
denotes the socalled curtate mean residual life which measures
the expectation of [T] − x given T ≥ x, i.e., the expected number of
additional birthdays or whole complete years of life to a life aged exactly x.
“Actuarial approximations” often involve an assumption that a lifetable
time until death is conditionally uniformly distributed, i.e., its density is
piecewiseconstant, over intervals [k, k+1) of age. The following paragraphs
explore this and other possibilities for survivalfunction interpolation between
integer ages.
One approach to approximating survival and forceofmortality functions
at noninteger values is to use analytical or what statisticians call parametric
models S(x; ϑ) arising in Examples (i)(v) above, where ϑ denotes in each
case the vector of real parameters needed to specify the model. Data on
survival at integer ages x can be used to estimate or ﬁt the value of the
scalar or vector parameter ϑ, after which the model S(x; ϑ) can be used
at all real x values. We will see some instances of this in the exercises.
The disadvantage of this approach is that actuaries do not really believe that
any of the simple models outlined above ought to ﬁt the whole of a human
life table. Nevertheless they can and do make assumptions on the shape of
S(x) in order to justify interpolationformulas between integer ages.
Now assume that values S(k) for k = 0, 1, 2, . . . have been speciﬁed or
estimated. Approximations to S(x), f(x) and µ(x) between integers are
usually based on one of the following assumptions:
(i) (Piecewiseuniform density) f(k +t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 ;
(ii) (Piecewiseconstant hazard) µ(k +t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 ;
(iii) (Balducci hypothesis) 1/S(k +t) is linear for 0 ≤ t < 1 .
Note that for integers k and 0 ≤ t ≤ 1,
S(k +t)
−ln S(k +t)
1/S(k +t)
is linear in t under
assumption (i)
assumption (ii)
assumption (iii)
(3.4)
3.2. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES 65
Under assumption (i), the slope of the linear function S(k +t) at t = 0 is
−f(k), which implies easily that S(k +t) = S(k) −tf(k), i.e.,
f(k) = S(k) −S(k + 1) , and µ(k +t) =
f(k)
S(k) −tf(k)
so that under (i),
µ(k +
1
2
) = f
T
(k +
1
2
)
S
T
(k +
1
2
) (3.5)
Under (ii), where µ(k +t) = µ(k), (3.5) also holds, and
S(k +t) = S(k) e
−t µ(k)
, and p
k
=
S(k + 1)
S(k)
= e
−µ(k)
Under (iii), for 0 ≤ t < 1,
1
S(k +t)
=
1
S(k)
+t
1
S(k + 1)
−
1
S(k)
(3.6)
When equation (3.6) is multiplied through by S(k + 1) and terms are
rearranged, the result is
S(k + 1)
S(k +t)
= t + (1 −t)
S(k + 1)
S(k)
= 1 − (1 −t) q
k
(3.7)
Recalling that
t
q
k
= 1 − (S(k + t)/S(k)), reveals assumption (iii) to be
equivalent to
1−t
q
k+t
= 1 −
S(k + 1)
S(k +t)
= (1 −t)
1 −
S(k + 1)
S(k)
= (1 −t) q
k
(3.8)
Next diﬀerentiate the logarithm of the formula (3.7) with respect to t, to
show (still under (iii)) that
µ(k +t) = −
∂
∂t
ln S(k +t) =
q
k
1 −(1 −t)q
k
(3.9)
The most frequent insurance application for the interpolation assump
tions (i)(iii) and associated survivalprobability formulas is to express prob
abilities of survival for fractional years in terms of probabilities of wholeyear
66 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
survival. In terms of the notations
t
p
k
and q
k
for integers k and 0 < t < 1,
the formulas are:
t
p
k
= 1 −
(S(k) −t(S(k + 1) −S(k))
S(k)
= 1 −t q
k
under (i) (3.10)
t
p
k
=
S(k +t)
S(x)
=
e
−µ(k)
t
= (1 −q
k
)
t
under (ii) (3.11)
t
p
k
=
S(k +t)
S(k + 1)
S(k + 1)
S(k)
=
1 −q
k
1 −(1 −t)q
k
under (iii) (3.12)
The application of all of these formulas can be understood in terms of the
formula for expectation of a function g(T) of the lifetime random variable T.
(For a concrete example, think of g(T) = (1 + i)
−T
as the present value to
an insurer of the payment of $1 which it will make instantaneously at the
future time T of death of a newborn which it undertakes to insure.) Then
assumptions (i), (ii), or (iii) via respective formulas (3.10), (3.11), and (3.12)
are used to substitute into the ﬁnal expression of the following formulas:
E
g(T)
=
∞
0
g(t) f(t) dt =
ω−1
¸
k=0
1
0
g(t +k) f(t +k) dt
=
ω−1
¸
k=0
S(k)
1
0
g(t +k)
−
∂
∂t
t
p
k
dt
3.3 Binomial Variables &
Law of Large Numbers
This Section develops just enough machinery for the student to understand
the probability theory for random variables which count numbers of successes
in large numbers of independent biased cointosses. The motivation is that in
large lifetable populations, the number l
x+t
who survive t timeunits after
age x can be regarded as the number of successes or heads in a large number
l
x
of independent cointoss trials corresponding to the further survival of each
of the l
x
lives aged x , which for each such life has probability
t
p
x
. The one
preliminary piece of mathematical machinery which the student is assumed
3.3. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 67
to know is the Binomial Theorem stating that (for positive integers N
and arbitrary real numbers x, y, z),
(1 +x)
N
=
N
¸
k=0
N
k
x
k
, (y +z)
N
=
N
¸
k=0
N
k
y
k
z
N−k
Recall that the ﬁrst of these assertions follows by equating the k
th
deriv
iatives of both sides at x = 0, where k = 0, . . . , N. The second assertion
follows immediately, in the nontrivial case when z = 0, by applying the ﬁrst
assertion with x = y/z and multiplying both sides by z
N
. This Theo
rem also has a direct combinatorial consequence. Consider the twovariable
polynomial
(y +z)
N
= (y +z) · (y +z) · · · (y +z) N factors
expanded by making all of the diﬀerent choices of y or z from each of
the N factors (y + z), multiplying each combination of choices out to
get a monomial y
j
z
N−j
, and adding all of the monomials together. Each
combined choice of y or z from the N factors (y +z) can be represented
as a sequence (a
1
, . . . , a
n
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
, where a
i
= 1 would mean that y
is chosen a
i
= 0 would mean that z is chosen in the i
th
factor. Now
a combinatorial fact can be deduced from the Binomial Theorem: since the
coeﬃcient
N
k
is the total number of monomial terms y
k
z
N−k
which are
collected when (y +z)
N
is expanded as described, and since these monomial
terms arise only from the combinations (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) of {y, z} choices in
which precisely k of the values a
j
are 1’s and the rest are 0’s,
The number of symbolsequences (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
such
that
¸
N
j=1
a
j
= k is given by
N
k
, for k = 0, 1, . . . , N. This
number
N
k
=
N(N −1) · · · (N −k + 1)
k!
spoken as ‘N choose k’, therefore counts all of the ways of choosing
k element subsets (the positions j from 1 to N where 1’s occur)
out of N objects.
The random experiment of interest in this Section consists of a large num
ber N of independent tosses of a coin, with probability p of coming up heads
68 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
each time. Such cointossing experiments — independently replicated two
outcome experiments with probability p of one of the outcomes, designated
‘success’ — are called Bernoulli(p) trials. The space of possible heads
andtails conﬁgurations, or sample space for this experiment, consists of the
strings of N zeroes and ones, with each string a = (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
being assigned probability p
a
(1 −p)
N−a
, where a ≡
¸
N
j=1
a
j
. The rule by
which probabilities are assigned to sets or events A of more than one string
a ∈ {0, 1}
N
is to add the probabilities of all individual strings a ∈ A. We
are particularly interested in the event (denoted [X = k]) that precisely k
of the cointosses are heads, i.e., in the subset [X = k] ⊂ {0, 1}
N
consisting
of all strings a such that
¸
N
j=1
a
j
= k. Since each such string has the same
probability p
k
(1 − p)
N−k
, and since, according to the discussion following
the Binomial Theorem above, there are
N
k
such strings, the probability
which is necessarily assigned to the event of k successes is
P( k successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials ) = P(X = k) =
N
k
p
k
(1−p)
N−k
By virtue of this result, the random variable X equal to the number of suc
cesses in N Bernoulli(p) trials, is said to have the Binomial distribution
with probability mass function p
X
(k) =
N
k
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
.
With the notion of Bernoulli trials and the binomial distribution in hand,
we now begin to regard the ideal probabilities S(x + t)/S(x) as true but
unobservable probabilities
t
p
x
= p with which each of the l
x
lives aged x
will survive to age x + t . Since the mechanisms which cause those lives
to survive or die can ordinarily be assumed to be acting independently in a
probabilistic sense, we can regard the number l
x+t
of lives surviving to the
(possibly fractional) age x+t as a Binomial random variable with parameters
N = l
x
, p =
t
p
x
. From this point of view, the observed lifetable counts
l
x
should be treated as random data which reﬂect but do not deﬁne the
underlying probabilities
x
p
0
= S(x) of survival to age x. However, common
sense and experience suggest that, when l
0
is large, and therefore the other
lifecounts l
x
for moderate values x are also large, the observed ratios
l
x+t
/l
x
should reliably be very close to the ‘true’ probability
t
p
x
. In other
words, the ratio l
x+t
/l
x
is a statistical estimator of the unknown constant
t
p
x
. The good property, called consistency, of this estimator to be close with
very large probability (based upon large lifetable size) to the probability it
estimates, is established in the famous Law of Large Numbers. The
3.3. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 69
precise quantitative inequality proved here concerning binomial probabilities
is called a Large Deviation Inequality and is very important in its own right.
Theorem 3.3.1 Suppose that X is a Binomial (N, p) random variable,
denoting the number of successes in N Bernoulli (p) trials.
(a) Large Deviation Inequalities. If 1 > b > p > c > 0, then
P(X ≥ Nb) ≤ exp
−N
b ln
b
p
+ (1 −b) ln
1 −b
1 −p
¸
P(X ≤ Nc) ≤ exp
−N
c ln
c
p
+ (1 −c) ln
1 −c
1 −p
¸
(b) Law of Large Numbers. For arbitrarily small ﬁxed δ > 0, not de
pending upon N, the number N of Bernoulli trials can be chosen so large
that
P
X
N
−p
≥ δ
≤ δ
Proof. After the ﬁrst inequality in (a) is proved, the second inequality
will be derived from it, and part (b) will follow from part (a). Since the
event [X ≥ Nb] is the union of the disjoint events [X = k] for k ≥ Nb,
which in turn consist of all outcomestrings (a
1
, . . . , a
N
) ∈ {0, 1}
N
for
which
¸
N
j=1
a
j
= k ≥ Nb, a suitable subset of the binomial probability
mass function values p
X
(k) are summed to provide
P(X ≥ Nb) =
¸
k:Nb≤k≤N
P(X = k) =
¸
k≥Nb
N
k
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
For every s > 1, this probability is
≤
¸
k≥Nb
N
k
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
s
k−Nb
= s
−Nb
¸
k≥Nb
N
k
(ps)
k
(1 −p)
N−k
≤ s
−Nb
N
¸
k=0
N
k
(ps)
k
(1 −p)
N−k
= s
−Nb
(1 −p +ps)
N
70 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Here extra terms (corresponding to k < Nb) have been added in the next
tolast step, and the binomial theorem was applied in the last step. The trick
in the proof comes now: since the lefthand side of the inequality does not
involve s while the righthand side does, and since the inequality must be
valid for every s > 1, it remains valid if the righthand side is minimized
over s. The calculus minimum does exist and is unique, as you can check by
calculating that the second derivative in s is always positive. The minimum
occurs where the ﬁrst derivative of the logarithm of the last expression is 0,
i.e., at s = b(1 −p)/(p(1 −b)). Substituting this value for s yields
P(X ≥ Nb) ≤
b (1 −p)
p (1 −b)
−Nb
1 −p
1 −b
N
= exp
−N
b ln
b
p
+ (1 −b) ln
1 −b
1 −p
as desired.
The second part of assertion (a) follows from the ﬁrst. Replace X by
Y = N − X. Since Y also is a count of ‘successes’ in Bernoulli (1 − p)
trials, where the ‘successes’ counted by Y are precisely the ‘failures’ in the
Bernoulli trials deﬁning X, it follows that Y also has a Binomial (N, q)
distribution, where q = 1 − p. Note also that c < p implies b = 1 − c >
1 −p = q. Therefore, the ﬁrst inequality applied to Y instead of X with
q = 1 − p replacing p and b = 1 − c, gives the second inequality for
P(Y ≥ Nb) = P(X ≤ Nc).
Note that for all r between 0, 1, the quantity r ln
r
p
+ (1 − r) ln
1−r
1−p
as a function of r is convex and has a unique minimum of 0 at r =
p. Therefore when b > p > c, the upper bound given in part (a) for
N
−1
ln P([X ≥ bN] ∪ [X ≤ cN]) is strictly negative and does not involve
N. For part (b), let δ ∈ (0, min(p, 1 − p)) be arbitrarily small, choose
b = p + δ, c = p − δ, and combine the inequalities of part (a) to give the
precise estimate (b).
P(
X
N
−p ≥ δ) ≤ 2 · exp(−Na) (3.13)
where
a = min
(p +δ) ln(1 +
δ
p
) + (1 −p −δ) ln(1 −
δ
1−p
) ,
(p −δ) ln(1 −
δ
p
) + (1 −p +δ) ln(1 +
δ
1−p
)
> 0 (3.14)
3.3. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 71
This last inequality proves (b), and in fact gives a much stronger and numer
ically more useful upper bound on the probability with which the socalled
relative frequency of success X/N diﬀers from the true probability p of
success by as much as δ. The probabilities of such large deviations between
X/N and δ are in fact exponentially small as a function of the number N
of repeated Bernoulli (p) trials, and the upper bounds given in (a) on the
logprobabilities divided by N turn out to be the correct limits for large
N of these normalized logprobabilities. 2
3.3.1 Exact Probabilities, Bounds & Approximations
Suppose ﬁrst that you are ﬂipping 20, 000 times a coin which is supposed to
be fair (i.e., to have p = 1/2) . The probability that the observed number of
heads falls outside the range [9800, 10200] is, according to the inequalities
above,
≤ 2 · exp
−9800 ln(0.98) − 10200 ln(1.02)
= 2 e
−4.00
= 0.037
The inequalities (3.13)(3.14) give only an upper bound for the actual bino
mial probability, and 0.0046 is the exact probability with which the relative
frequency of heads based on 20000 fair cointosses lies outside the range
(0.98, 1.02). The ratio of the upper bound to the actual probability is rather
large (about 8), but the absolute errors are small.
To give a feeling for the probabilities with which observed lifetable ratios
reﬂect the true underlying survivalrates, we have collected in Table 3.3.1 var
ious exact binomial probabilities and their counterparts from the inequalities
of Theorem 3.3.1(a). The illustration concerns cohorts of lives aged x of var
ious sizes l
x
, together with ‘theoretical’ probabilities
k
p
x
with which these
lives will survive for a period of k = 1, 5, or 10 years. The probability ex
periment determining the size of the surviving cohort l
x+k
is modelled as the
tossing of l
x
independent coins with common headsprobability
k
p
x
: then
the surviving cohortsize l
x+k
is viewed as the Binomial (l
x
,
k
p
x
) random
variable equal to the number of heads in those cointosses. In Table 3.3.1 are
given various combinations of x, l
x
, k,
k
p
x
which might realistically arise in
an insurancecompany lifetable, together, with the true and estimated (from
Theorem 3.3.1) probabilities with which the ratios l
x+k
/l
x
agree with
k
p
x
72 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
to within a fraction δ of the latter. The formulas used to compute columns
6 and 7 of the table are (for n = l
x
, p =
k
p
x
):
True binomial probability =
¸
j:j/(np)∈[1−δ,1+δ]
n
j
p
j
(1 −p)
n−j
Lower bound for probability = 1 − (1+δ)
−np(1+δ)
1 −
pδ
1 −p
−n(1−p−pδ)
− (1 −δ)
−np(1−δ)
1 +
pδ
1 −p
−n(1−p+pδ)
Columns 6 and 7 in the Table show how likely the lifetable ratios are to be
close to the ‘theoretical’ values, but also show that the lower bounds, while
also often close to 1, are still noticeably smaller than the actual values. .
Much closer approximations to the exact probabilities for Binomial(n, p)
random variables given in column 6 of Table 3.3.1 are obtained from the
Normal distribution approximation
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) ≈ Φ
b −np
np(1 −p)
− Φ
a −np
np(1 −p)
(3.15)
where Φ is the standard normal distribution function given explicitly in
integral form in formula (3.20) below. This approximation is the DeMoivre
Laplace Central Limit Theorem (Feller vol. 1, 1957, pp. 16873), which
says precisely that the diﬀerence between the left and righthand sides of
(3.15) converges to 0 when p remains ﬁxed, n → ∞. Moreover, the
reﬁned form of the DeMoivreLaplace Theorem given in the Feller (1957,
p. 172) reference says that each of the ratios of probabilities
P(X < a)
Φ
a −np
np(1 −p)
, P(X > b)
1 − Φ
b −np
np(1 −p)
converges to 1 if the ‘deviation’ ratios (b − np)/
np(1 −p) and (a −
np)/
np(1 −p) are of smaller order than n
−1/6
when n gets large. This
result suggests the approximation
Normal approximation = Φ
npδ
np(1 −p)
− Φ
−npδ
np(1 −p)
3.3. BINOMIAL VARIABLES & LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 73
Table 3.1: Probabilities (in col. 6) with which various Binomial(l
x
,
k
p
x
)
random variables lie within a factor 1 ± δ of their expectations, together
with lower bounds for these probabilities derived from the largedeviation
inequalities (3.13)(3.14). The ﬁnal column contains the normaldistribution
(CentralLimit) approximations to the exact probabilities in column 6.
Cohort Age Time Prob. Toler. Pr. within Lower Normal
n = l
x
x k p =
k
p
x
frac. δ within 1 ±δ bound approx.
10000 40 3 0.99 .003 .9969 .9760 .9972
10000 40 5 0.98 .004 .9952 .9600 .9949
10000 40 10 0.94 .008 .9985 .9866 .9985
1000 40 10 0.94 .020 .9863 .9120 .9877
10000 70 5 0.75 .020 .9995 .9950 .9995
1000 70 5 0.75 .050 .9938 .9531 .9938
10000 70 10 0.50 .030 .9973 .9778 .9973
1000 70 10 0.50 .080 .9886 .9188 .9886
for the true binomial probability P(X −np ≤ npδ), the formula of which
is displayed above. Although the deviationratios in this setting are actually
close to n
−1/6
, not smaller as they should be for applicability of the cited
result of Feller, the normal approximations in the ﬁnal column of Table 3.3.1
below are sensationally close to the correct binomial probabilities in column
6. A still more reﬁned theorem which justiﬁes this is given by Feller (1972,
section XVI.7 leading up to formula 7.28, p. 553).
If the probabilities in Theorem 3.3.1(a) are generally much smaller than
the upper bounds given for them, then why are those bounds of interest ?
(These are 1 minus the probabilities illustrated in Table 3.3.1.) First,
they provide relatively quick handcalculated estimates showing that large
batches of independent cointosses are extremely unlikely to yield relative
frequencies of heads much diﬀerent from the true probability or limiting
relative frequency of heads. Another, more operational, way to render this
conclusion of Theorem 3.3.1(b) is that two very large insured cohorts with the
same true survival probabilities are very unlikely to have materially diﬀerent
74 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
survival experience. However, as the Table illustrates, for practical purposes
the normal approximation to the binomial probabilities of large discrepancies
from the expectation is generally much more precise than the large deviation
bounds of Theorem 3.3.1(a).
The bounds given in Theorem 3.3.1(a) get small with large N much
more rapidly than simpler bounds based on Chebychev’s inequality (cf. Hogg
and Tanis 1997, Larsen and Marx 1985, or Larson 1982). We can tolerate
the apparent looseness in the bounds because it can be shown that the ex
ponential rate of decay as a function of N in the true tailprobabilities
P
N
= P(X ≥ Nb) or P(X ≤ Nc) in Theorem 3.3.1(a) (i.e., the constants
appearing in square brackets in the exponents on the righthand sides of the
bounds) are exactly the right ones: no larger constants replacing them could
give correct bounds.
3.4 Simulation of Life Table Data
We began by regarding lifetable ratios l
x
/l
0
in large cohort lifetables as
deﬁning integerage survival probabilities S(x) =
x
p
0
. We said that if the
lifetable was representative of a larger population of prospective insureds,
then we could imagine a newly presented life aged x as being randomly
chosen from the lifetable cohort itself. We motivated the conditional prob
ability ratios in this way, and similarly expectations of functions of lifetable
deathtimes were averages over the entire cohort. Although we found the
calculusbased formulas for lifetable conditional probabilities and expec
tations to be useful, at that stage they were only ideal approximations of
the more detailed but still exact lifetable ratios and sums. At the next
stage of sophistication, we began to describe the (conditional) probabilities
t
p
x
≡ S(x +t)/S(x) based upon a smooth survival function S(x) as a true
but unknown survival distribution, hypothesized to be of one of a number
of possible theoretical forms, governing each member of the lifetable cohort
and of further prospective insureds. Finally, we have come to view the life
table itself as data, with each ratio l
x+t
/l
x
equal to the relative frequency of
success among a set of l
x
Bernoulli (
t
p
x
) trials which Nature performs upon
the set of lives aged x . With the mathematical justiﬁcation of the Law
of Large Numbers, we come full circle: these relative frequencies are random
3.4. SIMULATION OF LIFE TABLE DATA 75
variables which are not very random. That is, they are extremely likely to
lie within a very small tolerance of the otherwise unknown probabilities
t
p
x
.
Accordingly, the lifetable ratios are, at least for very largeradix life tables,
highly accurate statistical estimators of the lifetable probabilities which we
earlier tried to deﬁne by them.
To make this discussion more concrete, we illustrate the diﬀerence be
tween the entries in a lifetable and the entries one would observe as data
in a randomly generated lifetable of the same size using the initial lifetable
ratios as exact survival probabilities. We used as a source of lifetable counts
the Mortality Table for U.S. White Males 195961 reproduced as Table 2 on
page 11 of C. W. Jordan’s (1967) book on Life Contingencies. That is, using
this Table with radix l
0
= 10
5
, with counts l
x
given for integer ages x from
1 through 80, we treated the probabilities p
x
= l
x+1
/l
x
for x = 0, . . . , 79 as
the correct oneyear survival probabilities for a second, computersimulated
cohort lifetable with radix l
∗
0
= 10
5
. Using simulated random variables
generated in Splus, we successively generated, as x runs from 1 to 79,
random variables l
∗
x+1
∼ Binomial (l
∗
x
, p
x
). In other words, the mechanism of
simulation of the sequence l
∗
0
, . . . , l
∗
79
was to make the variable l
∗
x+1
depend
on previously generated l
∗
1
, . . . , l
∗
x
only through l
∗
x
, and then to generate
l
∗
x+1
as though it counted the heads in l
∗
x
independent cointosses with
headsprobability p
x
. A comparison of the actual and simulated lifetable
counts for ages 9 to 79 in 10year intervals, is given below. The complete
simulated lifetable was given earlier as Table 1.1.
The implication of the Table is unsurprising: with radix as high as 10
5
,
the agreement between the initial and randomly generated lifetable counts
is quite good. The Law of Large Numbers guarantees good agreement, with
very high probability, between the ratios l
x+10
/l
x
(which here play the role of
the probability
10
p
x
of success in l
∗
x
Bernoulli trials) and the corresponding
simulated random relative frequencies of success l
∗
x+10
/l
∗
x
. For example, with
x = 69, the ﬁnal simulated count of 28657 lives aged 79 is the successcount in
56186 Bernoulli trials with successprobability 28814/56384 = .51103. With
this successprobability, assertion (a) and the ﬁnal inequality proved in (b) of
the Theorem show that the resulting count will diﬀer from .51103 · 56186 =
28712.8 by 300 or more (in either direction) with probability at most 0.08.
(Verify this by substituting in the formulas with 300 = δ · 56186).
76 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Table 3.2: Illustrative Real and Simulated LifeTable Data
Age x 195961 Actual LifeTable Simulated l
x
9 96801 96753
19 96051 95989
29 94542 94428
39 92705 92576
49 88178 87901
59 77083 76793
69 56384 56186
79 28814 28657
3.4.1 Expectation for Discrete Random Variables
The Binomial random variables which have just been discussed are examples
of socalled discrete random variables, that is, random variables Z with a
discrete (usually ﬁnite) list of possible outcomes z, with a corresponding list
of probabilities or probability mass function values p
Z
(z) with which each of
those possible outcomes occur. (These probabilities p
Z
(z) must be positive
numbers which summed over all possible values z add to 1.) In an insur
ance context, think for example of Z as the unforeseeable future damage or
liability upon the basis of which an insurer has to pay some scheduled claim
amount c(Z) to fulﬁll a speciﬁc property or liability insurance policy. The
Law of Large Numbers says that we can have a frequentist operational inter
pretation of each of the probabilities p
Z
(z) with which a claim of size c(z)
is presented. In a large population of N independent policyholders, each
governed by the same probabilities p
Z
(·) of liability occurrences, for each
ﬁxed damageamount z we can imagine a series of N Bernoulli (p
Z
(z))
trials, in which the j
th
policyholder is said to result in a ‘success’ if he
sustains a damage amount equal to z , and to result in a ‘failure’ otherwise.
The Law of Large Numbers for these Bernoulli trials says that the number
out of these N policyholders who do sustain damage z is for large N
extremely likely to diﬀer by no more than δN from N p
Z
(z).
3.4. SIMULATION OF LIFE TABLE DATA 77
Returning to a general discussion, suppose that Z is a discrete random
variable with a ﬁnite list of possible values z
1
, . . . , z
m
, and let c(·) be a
realvalued (nonrandom) cost function such that c(Z) represents an eco
nomically meaningful cost incurred when the random variable value Z is
given. Suppose that a large number N of independent individuals give rise
to respective values Z
j
, j = 1, . . . , N and costs c(Z
1
), . . . , c(Z
N
). Here in
dependent means that the mechanism causing diﬀerent individual Z
j
values
is such that information about the values Z
1
, . . . , Z
j−1
allows no change in
the (conditional) probabilities with which Z
j
takes on its values, so that for
all j, i, and b
1
, . . . , b
j−1
,
P(Z
j
= z
i
 Z
1
= b
1
, . . . , Z
j−1
= b
j−1
) = p
Z
(z
i
)
Then the Law of Large Numbers, applied as above, says that out of the
large number N of individuals it is extremely likely that approximately
p
Z
(k) · N will have their Z variable values equal to k, where k ranges
over {z
1
, . . . , z
m
}. It follows that the average costs c(Z
j
) over the N
independent individuals — which can be expressed exactly as
N
−1
N
¸
j=1
c(Z
j
) = N
−1
m
¸
i=1
c(z
i
) · #{j = 1, . . . , N : Z
j
= z
i
}
— is approximately given by
N
−1
m
¸
i=1
c(z
i
) · (N p
Z
(z
i
)) =
m
¸
i=1
c(z
i
) p
Z
(z
i
)
In other words, the Law of Large Numbers implies that the average cost
per trial among the N independent trials resulting in random variable
values Z
j
and corresponding costs c(Z
j
) has a welldeﬁned approximate
(actually, a limiting) value for very large N
Expectation of cost = E(c(Z)) =
m
¸
i=1
c(z
i
) p
Z
(z
i
) (3.16)
As an application of the formula for expectation of a discrete random
variable, consider the expected value of a costfunction g(T) of a lifetime
random variable which is assumed to depend on T only through the function
78 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
g([T]) of the integer part of T. This expectation was interpreted earlier as
the average cost over all members of the speciﬁed lifetable cohort. Now the
expectation can be veriﬁed to coincide with the lifetable average previously
given, if the probabilities S(j) in the following expression are replaced by
the lifetable estimators l
j
/l
0
. Since P([T] = k) = S(k) − S(k + 1), the
general expectation formula (3.16) yields
E(g(T)) = E(g([T]) =
ω−1
¸
k=0
g(k) (S(k) −S(k + 1))
agreeing precisely with formula (1.2).
Just as we did in the context of expectations of functions of the life
table waitingtime random variable T , we can interpret the Expectation as a
weighted average of values (costs, in this discussion) which can be incurred in
each trial, weighted by the probabilities with which they occur. There is an
analogy in the continuousvariable case, where Z would be a random variable
whose approximate probabilities of falling in tiny intervals [z, z + dz] are
given by f
Z
(z)dz, where f
Z
(z) is a nonnegative density function integrating
to 1. In this case, the weighted average of costfunction values c(z) which
arise when Z ∈ [z, z +dz], with approximate probabilityweights f
Z
(z)dz,
is written as a limit of sums or an integral, namely
c(z) f(z) dz.
3.4.2 Rules for Manipulating Expectations
We have separately deﬁned expectation for continuous and discrete random
variables. In the continuous case, we treated the expectation of a speciﬁed
function g(T) of a lifetime random variable governed by the survival function
S(x) of a cohort lifetable, as the approximate numerical average of the values
g(T
i
) over all individuals i with data represented through observed lifetime
T
i
in the lifetable. The discrete case was handled more conventionally,
along the lines of a ‘frequentist’ approach to the mathematical theory of
probability. First, we observed that our calculations with Binomial (n, p)
random variables justiﬁed us in saying that the sum X = X
n
of a large
number n of independent cointoss variables
1
, . . . , ,
n
, each of which is
1 with probability p and 0 otherwise, has a value which with very high
probability diﬀers from n·p by an amount smaller than δn, where δ > 0 is
3.4. SIMULATION OF LIFE TABLE DATA 79
an arbitrarily small number not depending upon n. The Expectation p of
each of the variables
i
is recovered approximately as the numerical average
X/n = n
−1
¸
n
i=1
i
of the independent outcomes
i
of independent trials.
This Law of Large Numbers extends to arbitrary sequences of independent
and identical ﬁnitevalued discrete random variables, saying that
if Z
1
, Z
2
, . . . are independent random variables, in the sense
that for all k ≥ 2 and all numbers r,
P(Z
k
≤ r  Z
1
= z
1
, . . . , Z
k−1
= z
k−1
) = P(Z
1
≤ r)
regardless of the precise values z
1
, . . . , z
k−1
, then for each δ > 0,
as n gets large
P
n
−1
n
¸
i=1
c(Z
i
) −E(c(Z
1
)) ≥ δ
−→ 0 (3.17)
where, in terms of the ﬁnite set S of possible values of Z ,
E(c(Z
1
)) =
¸
z∈S
c(z) P(Z
1
= z) (3.18)
Although we do not give any further proof here, it is a fact that the same
Law of Large Numbers given in equation (3.17) continues to hold if the
deﬁnition of independent sequences of random variables Z
i
is suitably gen
eralized, as long as either
Z
i
are discrete with inﬁnitely many possible values deﬁning a
set S, and the expectation is as given in equation (3.18) above
whenever the function c(z) is such that
¸
z∈S
c(z) P(Z
1
= z) < ∞
or
the independent random variables Z
i
are continuous, all with
the same density f(t) such that P(q ≤ Z
1
≤ r) =
r
q
f(t) dt,
and expectation is deﬁned by
E(c(Z
1
)) =
∞
−∞
c(t) f(t) dt (3.19)
80 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
whenever the function c(t) is such that
∞
−∞
c(t) f(t) dt < ∞
All of this serves to indicate that there really is no choice in coming
up with an appropriate deﬁnition of expectations of costfunctions deﬁned in
terms of random variables Z, whether discrete or continuous. For the rest of
these lectures, and more generally in applications of probability within actu
arial science, we are interested in evaluating expectations of various functions
of random variables related to the contingencies and uncertain duration of
life. Many of these expectations concern superpositions of random amounts
to be paid out after random durations. The following rules for the manipula
tion of expectations arising in such superpositions considerably simplify the
calculations. Assume throughout the following that all payments and times
which are not certain are functions of a single lifetime random variable T.
(1). If a payment consists of a nonrandom multiple (e.g., faceamount
F) times a random amount c(T), then the expectation of the payment is
the product of F and the expectation of c(T):
Discrete case: E(Fc(T)) =
¸
t
F c(t) P(T = t)
= F
¸
t
c(t) P(T = t) = F · E(c(T))
Continuous case: E(Fc(T)) =
F c(t)f(t) dt = F
c(t)f(t) dt = F·E(c(T))
(2). If a payment consists of the sum of two separate random payments
c
1
(T), c
2
(T) (which may occur at diﬀerent times, taken into account by
treating both terms c
k
(T) as present values as of the same time), then the
overall payment has expectation which is the sum of the expectations of the
separate payments:
Discrete case: E(c
1
(T) +c
2
(T)) =
¸
t
(c
1
(t) +c
2
(t)) P(T = t)
=
¸
t
c
1
(t) P(T = t) +
¸
t
c
2
(t) P(T = t) = E(c
1
(T)) +E(c
2
(T))
3.5. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS 81
Continuous case: E(c
1
(T) +c
2
(T)) =
(c
1
(t) +c
2
(t)) f(t) dt
=
c
1
(t) f(t) dt +
c
2
(t) f(t) dt = E(c
1
(T)) +E(c
2
(T))
Thus, if an uncertain payment under an insurancerelated contract, based
upon a continuous lifetime variable T with density f
T
, occurs only if
a ≤ T < b and in that case consists of a payment of a ﬁxed amount F
occurring at a ﬁxed time h, then the expected present value under a ﬁxed
nonrandom interestrate i with v = (1 +i)
−1
, becomes by rule (1) above,
E(v
h
F I
[a≤T<b]
) = v
h
F E(I
[a≤T<b]
)
where the indicatornotation I
[a≤T<b]
denotes a random quantity which is
1 when the condition [a ≤ T < b] is satisﬁed and is 0 otherwise. Since
an indicator random variable has the two possible outcomes {0, 1} like the
cointoss variables
i
above, we conclude that E(I
[a≤T<b]
) = P(a ≤ T <
b) =
b
a
f
T
(t) dt, and the expected present value above is
E(v
h
F I
[a≤T<b]
) = v
h
F
b
a
f
T
(t) dt
3.5 Some Special Integrals
While actuaries ordinarily do not allow themselves to represent real life
table survival distributions by simple ﬁniteparameter families of theoretical
distributions (for the good reason that they never approximate the real large
sample lifetable data well enough), it is important for the student to be
conversant with several integrals which would arise by substituting some of
the theoretical models into formulas for various net single premiums and
expected lifetimes.
Consider ﬁrst the Gamma functions and integrals arising in connection
with Gamma survival distributions. The Gamma function Γ(α) is deﬁned
by
Γ(α) =
∞
0
x
α−1
e
−x
dx , α > 0
82 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
This integral is easily checked to be equal to 1 when α = 1, giving
the total probability for an exponentially distributed random variable, i.e., a
lifetime with constant forceofmortality 1. For α = 2, the integral is the
expected value of such a unitexponential random variable, and it is a stan
dard integrationbyparts exercise to check that it too is 1. More generally,
integration by parts in the Gamma integral with u = x
α
and dv = e
−x
dx
immediately yields the famous recursion relation for the Gamma integral,
ﬁrst derived by Euler, and valid for all α > 0 :
Γ(α + 1) =
∞
0
x
α
e
−x
dx =
−x
α
e
−x
∞
0
+
∞
0
αx
α−1
e
−x
dx = α · Γ(α)
This relation, applied inductively, shows that for all positive integers n,
Γ(n + 1) = n · (n −1) · · · 2 · Γ(1) = n!
The only other simpletoderive formula explicitly giving values for (non
integer) values of the Gamma function is Γ(
1
2
) =
√
π, obtained as follows:
Γ(
1
2
) =
∞
0
x
−1/2
e
−x
dx =
∞
0
e
−z
2
/2
√
2 dz
Here we have made the integral substitution x = z
2
/2, x
−1/2
dx =
√
2 dz.
The last integral can be given by symmetry as
1
√
2
∞
−∞
e
−z
2
/2
dz =
√
π
where the last equality is equivalent to the fact (proved in most calculus
texts as an exercise in double integration using change of variable to polar
coordinates) that the standard normal distribution
Φ(x) =
1
√
2π
x
−∞
e
−z
2
/2
dz (3.20)
is a bonaﬁde distribution function with limit equal to 1 as x → ∞.
One of the integrals which arises in calculating expected remaining life
times for Weibulldistributed variables is a Gamma integral, after integration
byparts and a changeofvariable. Recall that the Weibull density with pa
rameters λ, γ is
f(t) = λγ t
γ−1
e
−λt
γ
, t > 0
3.5. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS 83
so that S(x) = exp(−λx
γ
). The expected remaining life for a Weibull
distributed life aged x is calculated, via an integration by parts with u =
t −x and dv = f(t)dt = −S
(t)dt, as
∞
x
(t −x)
f(t)
S(x)
dt =
1
S(x)
−(t −x) e
−λt
γ
∞
x
+
∞
x
e
−λt
γ
dt
The ﬁrst term in square brackets evaluates to 0 at the endpoints, and the
second term can be reexpressed via the changeofvariable w = λt
γ
, to
give, in the Weibull example,
E(T −x T ≥ x) = e
λx
γ 1
γ
λ
−1/γ
∞
λx
γ
w
(1/γ)−1
e
−w
dw
= Γ(
1
γ
) e
λx
γ 1
γ
λ
−1/γ
1 −G
1/γ
(λx
γ
)
where we denote by G
α
(z) the Gamma distribution function with shape
parameter α,
G
α
(z) =
1
Γ(α)
z
0
v
α−1
e
−v
dv
and the integral on the righthand side is called the incomplete Gamma func
tion. Values of G
α
(z) can be found either in published tables which
are now quite dated, or among the standard functions of many mathe
matical/statistical computer packages, such as Mathematica, Matlab, or
Splus. One particular case of these integrals, the case α = 1/2 , can be re
cast in terms of the standard normal distribution function Φ(·). We change
variables by v = y
2
/2 to obtain for z ≥ 0,
G
1/2
(z) =
1
Γ(1/2)
z
0
v
−1/2
e
−v
dv =
1
√
π
√
2z
0
√
2 e
−y
2
/2
dy
=
2
π
·
√
2π · (Φ(
√
2z) −Φ(0)) = 2Φ(
√
2z) −1
One further expectedlifetime calculation with a common type of distri
bution gives results which simplify dramatically and become amenable to
numerical calculation. Suppose that the lifetime random variable T is as
sumed lognormally distributed with parameters m, σ
2
. Then the expected
remaining lifetime of a life aged x is
E( T −x T ≥ x) =
1
S(x)
∞
x
t
d
dt
Φ(
log(t) −log(m)
σ
) dt − x
84 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Now change variables by y = (log(t) − log(m))/σ = log(t/m)/σ, so that
t = me
σy
, and deﬁne in particular
x
=
log(x) −log(m)
σ
Recalling that Φ
(z) = exp(−z
2
/2)/
√
2π , we ﬁnd
E( T −x T ≥ x) =
1
1 −Φ(x
)
∞
x
m
√
2π
e
σy−y
2
/2
dy
The integral simpliﬁes after completing the square σy −y
2
/2 = σ
2
/2 −(y −
σ)
2
/2 in the exponent of the integrand and changing variables by z = y −σ.
The result is:
E( T −x T ≥ x) =
me
σ
2
/2
1 −Φ(x
)
(1 −Φ(x
−σ))
3.6 Exercise Set 3
(1). Show that:
∂
∂x
t
p
x
=
t
p
x
· (µ
x
−µ
x+t
) .
(2). For a certain value of x, it is known that
t
q
x
= kt over the time
interval t ∈ [0, 3], where k is a constant. Express µ
x+2
as a function of
k.
(3). Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime Z with
continuous density function
f
Z
(t) = 0.02 (t −20) e
−(t−20)
2
/100
, t > 20
(a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must
pay his heirs $10
6
· (1.4 − Z/50) on the date of his death between ages 20
and 70, then what is the expected payment ?
(b) If the value of the deathpayment described in (a) should properly be
discounted by the factor exp(−0.08(Z −20)) (i.e. by the eﬀective interest
rate of e
.08
−1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment, then
what is the expected present value of the insurance contract ?
3.6. EXERCISE SET 3 85
Hint for both parts: After a change of variables, the integral in (a) can be
evaluated in terms of incomplete Gamma integrals
∞
c
s
α−1
e
−s
ds, where
the complete Gamma integrals (for c=0) are known to yield the Gamma
function Γ(α) = (α − 1)!, for integer α > 0. Also: Γ(α + 1) = αΓ(α)
for all real > 0, and Γ(1/2) =
√
π .
(4). Suppose that a lifetable mortality pattern is this: from ages 20 through
60, twice as many lives die in each 5year period as in the previous ﬁveyear
period. Find the probability that a life aged 20 will die between exact ages 40
and 50. If the force of mortality can be assumed constant over each ﬁveyear
age period (2024, 2529, etc.), and if you are told that l
60
/l
20
= 0.8, then
ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 20 will survive at least until exact age
48.0 .
(5). Obtain an expression for µ
x
if l
x
= k s
x
w
x
2
g
c
x
, where k, s, w, g, c
are positive constants.
(6). Show that:
∞
0
l
x+t
µ
x+t
dt = l
x
.
(7). A man wishes to accumulate $50, 000 in a fund at the end of 20 years.
If he deposits $1000 in the fund at the end of each of the ﬁrst 10 years and
$1000+x in the fund at the end of each of the second 10 years, then ﬁnd x
to the nearest dollar, where the fund earns an eﬀective interest rate of 6% .
(8). Express in terms of annuityfunctions a
(m)
N
the present value of an
annuity of $100 per month paid the ﬁrst year, $200 per month for the second
year, up to $1000 per month the tenth year. Find the numerical value of the
present value if the eﬀective annual interest rate is 7% .
(9). Find upper bounds for the following Binomial probabilities, and com
pare them with the exact values calculated via computer (e.g., using a spread
sheet or exact mathematical function such as pbinom in Splus) :
(a). The probability that in Bernoulli trials with successprobability
0.4, the number of successes lies outside the (inclusive) range [364, 446].
(b). The probability that of 1650 lives aged exactly 45, for whom
20
p
45
= 0.72, no more than 1075 survive to retire at age 65.
(10). If the force of mortality governing a cohort lifetable is such that
µ
t
=
2
1 +t
+
2
100 −t
for real t , 0 < t < 100
86 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
then ﬁnd the number of deaths which will be expected to occur between ages
1 and 4, given that the radix l
0
of the lifetable is 10, 000.
(11). Find the expected present value at 5% APR of an investment whose
proceeds will with probability 1/2 be a payment of $10, 000 in exactly 5
years, and with the remaining probability 1/2 will be a payment of $20, 000
in exactly 10 years.
Hint: calculate the respective present values V
1
, V
2
of the payments in each
of the two events with probability 0.5, and ﬁnd the expected value of a discrete
random variable which has values V
1
or V
2
with probabilities 0.5 each.
3.7. WORKED EXAMPLES 87
3.7 Worked Examples
Example 1. Assume that a cohort lifetable population satisﬁes l
0
= 10
4
and
d
x
=
200 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 14
100 for 15 ≤ x ≤ 48
240 for 49 ≤ x ≤ 63
(a) Suppose that an insurer is to pay an amount $100· (64−X) (without
regard to interest or present values related to the timedeferral of the payment)
for a newborn in the lifetable population, if X denotes the attained integer
age at death. What is the expected amount to be paid ?
(b) Find the expectation requested in (a) if the insurance is purchased for
a life currently aged exactly 10 .
(c) Find the expected present value at 4% interest of a payment of $1000
to be made at the end of the year of death of a life currently aged exactly 20.
The ﬁrst task is to develop an expression for survival function and density
governing the cohort lifetable population. Since the numbers of deaths are
constant over intervals of years, the survival function is piecewise linear, and
the lifedistribution is piecewise uniform because the the density is piecewise
constant. Speciﬁcally for this example, at integer values y,
l
y
=
10000 −200y for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15
7000 −100(y −15) for 16 ≤ y ≤ 49
3600 −240(y −49) for 50 ≤ y ≤ 64
It follows that the terminal age for this population is ω = 64 for this
population, and S(y) = 1 − 0.02 y for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15, 0.85 − 0.01 y for
15 ≤ y ≤ 49, and 1.536− .024 y for 49 ≤ y ≤ 64. Alternatively, extending
the function S linearly, we have the survival density f(y) = −S
(y) = 0.02
on [0, 15), = 0.01 on [15, 49), and = 0.024 on [49, 64].
Now the expectation in (a) can be written in terms of the random lifetime
variable with density f as
15
0
0.02 · 100 · (64 −[y]) dy +
49
15
0.01 · 100 · (64 −[y]) dy
88 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
+
64
49
0.024 · 100 · (64 −[y]) dy
The integral has been written as a sum of three integrals over diﬀerent ranges
because the analytical form of the density f in the expectationformula
g(y)f(y)dy is diﬀerent on the three diﬀerent intervals. In addition, observe
that the integrand (the function g(y) = 100(64−[y]) of the random lifetime
Y whose expectation we are seeking) itself takes a diﬀerent analytical form
on successive oneyear age intervals. Therefore the integral just displayed can
immediately be seen to agree with the summation formula for the expectation
of the function 100(64−X) for the integervalued random variable X whose
probability mass function is given by
P(X = k) = d
k
/l
0
The formula is
E(g(Y )) = E(100(64 −X)) =
14
¸
k=0
0.02 · 100 · (64 −k) +
48
¸
k=15
0.01 · 100 · (64 −k) +
63
¸
k=49
0.024 · 100 · (64 −k)
Thus the solution to (a) is given (after the changeofvariable j = 64 − k),
by
2.4
15
¸
j=1
j +
49
¸
j=16
j + 2
64
¸
j=50
j
The displayed expressions can be summed either by a calculator program or
by means of the easilychecked formula
¸
n
j=1
j = j(j + 1)/2 to give the
numerical answer $3103 .
The method in part (b) is very similar to that in part (a), except that
we are dealing with conditional probabilities of lifetimes given to be at least
10 years long. So the summations now begin with k = 10, or alterna
tively end with j = 64 − k = 54, and the denominators of the conditional
probabilities P(X = kX ≥ 10) are l
10
= 8000. The expectation in (b)
then becomes
14
¸
k=10
200
8000
· 100· (64−k) +
48
¸
k=15
100
8000
· 100· (64−k) +
63
¸
k=49
240
8000
· 100· (64−k)
3.7. WORKED EXAMPLES 89
which works out to the numerical value
3.0
15
¸
1
j + 1.25
49
¸
16
j + 2.5
54
¸
50
j = $2391.25
Finally, we ﬁnd the expectation in (c) as a summation beginning at k =
20 for a function 1000 · (1.04)
−X+19
of the random variable X with
conditional probability distribution P(X = kX ≥ 20) = d
k
/l
20
for k ≥ 20.
(Note that the function 1.04
−X+19
is the present value of a payment of 1
at the end of the year of death, because the end of the age X year for an
individual currently at the 20
th
birthday is X − 19 years away.) Since
l
20
= 6500, the answer to part (c) is
1000
48
¸
k=20
100
6500
(1.04)
19−k
+
63
¸
k=49
240
6500
(1.04)
19−k
¸
= 1000
1
65
1 −1.04
−29
0.04
+
24
650
1.04
−29
1 −(1.04)
−15
0.04
= 392.92
Example 2. Find the change in the expected lifetime of a cohort lifetable
population governed by survival function S(x) = 1−(x/ω) for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω
if ω = 80 and
(a) the force of mortality µ(y) is multiplied by 0.9 at all exact ages
y ≥ 40, or
(b) the force of mortality µ(y) is decreased by the constant amount 0.1
at all ages y ≥ 40.
The force of mortality here is
µ(y) = −
d
dy
ln(1 −y/80) =
1
80 −y
So multiplying it by 0.9 at ages over 40 changes leaves unaﬀected the
density of 1/80 for ages less than 40, and for ages y over 40 changes
the density from f(y) = 1/80 to
f
∗
(y) = −
d
dy
S(40) exp(−0.9
y
40
(80 −z)
−1
dz)
90 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
= −
d
dy
0.5 e
0.9 ln((80−y)/40)
= −0.5
d
dy
80 −y
40
0.9
=
0.9
80
(2 −y/40)
−0.1
Thus the expected lifetime changes from
80
0
(y/80) dy = 40 to
40
0
(y/80) dy +
80
40
y
0.9
80
(2 −y/40)
−0.1
dy
Using the change of variable z = 2 − y/40 in the last integral gives the
expected lifetime = 10 + .45(80/.9 −40/1.9) = 40.53.
Example 3. Suppose that you have available to you two investment possi
bilities, into each of which you are being asked to commit $5000. The ﬁrst
investment is a riskfree bond (or bank savingsaccount) which returns com
pound interest of 5% for a 10year period. The second is a ‘junk bond’
which has probability 0.6 of paying 11% compound interest and returning
your principal after 10 years, probability 0.3 of paying yearly interest at
11% for 5 years and then returning your principal of $5000 at the end
of the 10
th
year with no further interest payments, and probability 0.1
of paying yearly interest for 3 years at 11% and then defaulting, paying
no more interest and not returning the principal. Suppose further that the
going rate of interest with respect to which present values should properly
be calculated for the next 10 years will either be 4.5% or 7.5%, each
with probability 0.5. Also assume that the events governing the junk bond’s
paying or defaulting are independent of the true interest rate’s being 4.5%
versus 7.5% for the next 10 years. Which investment provides the better
expected return in terms of current (time0) dollars ?
There are six relevant events, named and displayed along with their prob
abilities in the following table, corresponding to the possible combinations
of true interest rate (Low versus High) and payment scenarios for the junk
bond (Full payment, Partial interest payments with return of principal, and
Default after 3 years’ interest payments):
3.7. WORKED EXAMPLES 91
Event Name Description Probability
A
1
Low ∩ Full 0.30
A
2
Low ∩ Partial 0.15
A
3
Low ∩ Default 0.05
A
4
High ∩ Full 0.30
A
5
High ∩ Partial 0.15
A
6
High ∩ Default 0.05
Note that because of independence (ﬁrst deﬁned in Section 1.1), the prob
abilities of intersected events are calculated as the products of the separate
probabilities, e.g.,
P(A
2
) = P(Low) · P(Partial) = (0.5) · (0.30) = 0.15
Now, under each of the events A
1
, A
2
, A
3
, the present value of the ﬁrst
investment (the riskfree bond) is
5000
10
¸
k=1
0.05 (1.045)
−k
+ (1.045)
−10
¸
= 5197.82
On each of the events A
4
, A
5
, A
6
, the present value of the ﬁrst investment
is
5000
10
¸
k=1
0.05 (1.075)
−k
+ (1.075)
−10
¸
= 4141.99
Thus, since
P(Low) = P(A
1
∪ A
2
∪ A
3
) = P(A
1
) +P(A
2
) +P(A
3
) = 0.5
the overall expected present value of the ﬁrst investment is
0.5 · (5197.82 + 4141.99) = 4669.90
Turning to the second investment (the junk bond), denoting by PV the
present value considered as a random variable, we have
E(PV  A
1
)/5000 = 0.11
10
¸
k=1
(1.045)
−k
+ (1.045)
−10
= 1.51433
92 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
E(PV  A
4
)/5000 = 0.11
10
¸
k=1
(1.075)
−k
+ (1.075)
−10
= 1.24024
E(PV  A
2
)/5000 = 0.11
5
¸
k=1
(1.045)
−k
+ (1.045)
−10
= 1.12683
E(PV  A
5
)/5000 = 0.11
5
¸
k=1
(1.075)
−k
+ (1.075)
−10
= 0.93024
E(PV  A
3
)/5000 = 0.11
3
¸
k=1
(1.045)
−k
= 0.302386
E(PV  A
6
)/5000 = 0.11
3
¸
k=1
(1.075)
−k
= 0.286058
Therefore, we conclude that the overall expected present value E(PV ) of
the second investment is
6
¸
i=1
E(PV · I
A
i
) =
6
¸
i=1
E(PV A
i
) P(A
i
) = 5000 · (1.16435) = 5821.77
So, although the ﬁrstinvestment is ‘riskfree’, it does not keep up with inﬂa
tion in the sense that its present value is not even as large as its starting value.
The second investment, risky as it is, nevertheless beats inﬂation (i.e., the
expected present value of the accumulation after 10 years is greater than the
initial face value of $5000) although with probability P(Default) = 0.10
the investor may be so unfortunate as to emerge (in present value terms)
with only 30% of his initial capital.
3.8. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 3 93
3.8 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3
k
p
x
= p
x
p
x+1
p
x+2
· · · p
x+k−1
, k ≥ 1 integer
p. 61
k/m
p
x
=
k−1
¸
j=0
1/m
p
x+j/m
, k ≥ 1 integer
p. 61
(i) Piecewise Unif.. S(k+t) = tS(k+1)+(1−t)S(k) , k integer , t ∈ [0, 1]
p. 64
(ii) Piecewise Const. µ(y) ln S(k+t) = t ln S(k+1)+(1−t) ln S(k) , k integer
p. 64
(iii) Balducci assump.
1
S(k +t)
=
t
S(k + 1)
+
1 −t
S(k)
, k integer
p. 64
t
p
k
=
S(k) −t(S(k + 1) −S(k))
S(k)
= 1 −t q
k
under (i)
p. 66
t
p
k
=
S(k +t)
S(x)
=
e
−µ(k)
t
= (1 −q
k
)
t
under (ii)
p. 66
t
p
k
=
S(k +t)
S(k + 1)
S(k + 1)
S(k)
=
1 −q
k
1 −(1 −t)q
k
under (iii)
94 CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
p. 66
Binomial(N, p) probability P(X = k) =
N
k
p
k
(1 −p)
N−k
p. 68
Discrete r.v. Expectation E(c(Z)) =
m
¸
i=1
c(z
i
) p
Z
(z
i
)
p. 77
Γ(α) =
∞
0
x
α−1
e
−x
dx
p. 82
Φ(x) =
1
√
2π
x
−∞
e
−z
2
/2
dz
p. 82
Chapter 4
Expected Present Values of
Insurance Contracts
We are now ready to draw together the main strands of the development so
far: (i) expectations of discrete and continuous random variables deﬁned as
functions of a lifetable waiting time T until death, and (ii) discounting of
future payment (streams) based on interestrate assumptions. The approach
is ﬁrst to deﬁne the contractual terms of and discuss relations between the
major sorts of insurance, endowment and life annuity contracts, and next to
use interest theory to deﬁne the present value of the contractual payment
stream by the insurer as a nonrandom function of the random individual
lifetime T. In each case, this leads to a formula for the expected present value
of the payout by the insurer, an amount called the net single premium
or net single risk premium of the contract because it is the single cash
payment by the insured at the beginning of the insurance period which would
exactly compensate for the average of the future payments which the insurer
will have to make.
The details of the further mathematical discussion fall into two parts:
ﬁrst, the speciﬁcation of formulas in terms of cohort lifetable quantities for
net single premiums of insurances and annuities which pay only at wholeyear
intervals; and second, the application of the various survival assumptions con
cerning interpolation between whole years of age, to obtain the corresponding
formulas for insurances and annuities which have m payment times per year.
We close this Chapter with a discussion of instantaneouspayment insurance,
95
96 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
continuouspayment annuity, and meanresiduallife formulas, all of which
involve continuoustime expectation integrals. We also relate these expecta
tions with their mpaymentperyear discrete analogues, and compare the
corresponding integral and summation formulas.
Similar and parallel discussions can be found in the Life Contingencies
book of Jordan (1967) and the Actuarial Mathematics book of Bowers et
al. (1986). The approach here diﬀers in unifying concepts by discussing
together all of the diﬀerent contracts, ﬁrst in the wholeyear case, next under
interpolation assumptions in the mtimesperyear case, and ﬁnally in the
instantaneous case.
4.1 Expected Present Values of Payments
Throughout the Chapter and from now on, it is helpful to distinguish no
tationally the expectations relating to present values of life insurances and
annuities for a life aged x. Instead of the notation E(g(T)  T ≥ x) for
expectations of functions of lifelength random variables, we deﬁne
E
x
( g(T) ) = E(g(T)  T ≥ x)
The expectations formulas can then be written in terms of the residual
lifetime variable S = T − x (or the changeofvariable s = t − x) as
follows:
E
x
( g(T) ) =
∞
x
g(t)
f(t)
S(x)
dt =
∞
x
g(t)
∂
∂t
−
S(t)
S(x)
dt
=
∞
0
g(s +x)
∂
∂s
(−
s
p
x
) ds =
∞
0
g(s +x) µ(s +x)
s
p
x
ds
4.1.1 Types of Insurance & Life Annuity Contracts
There are three types of contracts to consider: insurance, life annuities, and
endowments. More complicated kinds of contracts — which we do not discuss
in detail — can be obtained by combining (superposing or subtracting) these
in various ways. A further possibility, which we address in Chapter 10, is
4.1. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES 97
to restrict payments to some further contingency (e.g., deathbeneﬁts only
under speciﬁed causeofdeath).
In what follows, we adopt several uniform notations and assumptions.
Let x denote the initial age of the holder of the insurance, life annuity,
or endowment contract, and assume for convenience that the contract is
initiated on the holder’s birthday. Fix a nonrandom eﬀective (i.e., APR)
interest rate i , and retain the notation v = (1 + i)
−1
, together with the
other notations previously discussed for annuities of nonrandom duration.
Next, denote by m the number of paymentperiods per year, all times being
measured from the date of policy initiation. Thus, for given m, insurance
will pay oﬀ at the end of the fraction 1/m of a year during which death
occurs, and lifeannuities pay regularly m times per year until the annuitant
dies. The term or duration n of the contract will always be assumed to
be an integer multiple of 1/m. Note that policy durations are all measured
from policy initiation, and therefore are exactly x smaller than the exact
age of the policyholder at termination.
The random exact age at which the policyholder dies is denoted by T,
and all of the contracts under discussion have the property that T is the
only random variable upon which either the amount or time of payment can
depend. We assume further that the payment amount depends on the time
T of death only through the attained age T
m
measured in multiples of 1/m
year. As before, the survival function of T is denoted S(t), and the density
either f(t). The probabilities of the various possible occurrences under the
policy are therefore calculated using the conditional probability distribution
of T given that T ≥ x, which has density f(t)/S(x) at all times t ≥ x.
Deﬁne from the random variable T the related discrete random variable
T
m
=
[Tm]
m
= age at beginning of
1
m
th
of year of death
which for integer initial age x is equal to x + k/m whenever x + k/m ≤
T < x + (k + 1)/m. Observe that the probability mass function of this
random variable is given by
P(T
m
= x +
k
m
T ≥ x) = P(
k
m
≤ T −x <
k + 1
m
T ≥ x)
=
1
S(x)
¸
S(x +
k
m
) −S(x +
k + 1
m
)
=
k/m
p
x
−
(k+1)/m
p
x
98 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
= P(T ≥ x +
k
m
T ≥ x) · P(T < x +
k + 1
m
T ≥ x +
k
m
) (4.1)
=
k/m
p
x
·
1/m
q
x+k/m
As has been mentioned previously, a key issue in understanding the special
nature of life insurances and annuities with multiple payment periods is to
understand how to calculate or interpolate these probabilities from the prob
abilities
j
p
y
(for integers j, y) which can be deduced or estimated from
lifetables.
An Insurance contract is an agreement to pay a face amount — perhaps
modiﬁed by a speciﬁed function of the time until death — if the insured, a
life aged x, dies at any time during a speciﬁed period, the term of the policy,
with payment to be made at the end of the 1/m year within which the death
occurs. Usually the payment will simply be the face amount F(0), but for
example in decreasing term policies the payment will be F(0) · (1 −
k−1
nm
) if
death occurs within the k
th
successive fraction 1/m year of the policy,
where n is the term. (The insurance is said to be a wholelife policy if
n = ∞, and a term insurance otherwise.) The general form of this contract,
for a speciﬁed term n ≤ ∞, paymentamount function F(·), and number
m of possible paymentperiods per year, is to
pay F(T −x) at time T
m
−x +
1
m
following policy initiation,
if death occurs at T between x and x +n.
The present value of the insurance company’s payment under the contract is
evidently
F(T −x) v
Tm−x+1/m
if x ≤ T < x +n
0 otherwise
(4.2)
The simplest and most common case of this contract and formula arise
when the faceamount F(0) is the constant amount paid whenever a death
within the term occurs. Then the payment is F(0), with present value
F(0) v
−x+([mT]+1)/m
, if x ≤ T < x +n, and both the payment and present
value are 0 otherwise. In this case, with F(0) ≡ 1, the net single premium
has the standard notation A
(m)1
x:n
. In the further special case where m = 1,
4.1. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES 99
the superscript m is dropped, and the net single premium is denoted A
1
x:n
.
Similarly, when the insurance is wholelife (n = ∞), the subscript n and
bracket
n
are dropped.
A Life Annuity contract is an agreement to pay a scheduled payment to
the policyholder at every interval 1/m of a year while the annuitant is alive,
up to a maximum number of nm payments. Again the payment amounts are
ordinarily constant, but in principle any nonrandom timedependent schedule
of payments F(k/m) can be used, where F(s) is a ﬁxed function and s
ranges over multiples of 1/m. In this general setting, the life annuity
contract requires the insurer to
pay an amount F(k/m) at each time k/m ≤ T − x, up to a
maximum of nm payments.
To avoid ambiguity, we adopt the convention that in the ﬁniteterm life
annuities, either F(0) = 0 or F(n) = 0. As in the case of annuities certain
(i.e., the nonrandom annuities discussed within the theory of interest), we
refer to life annuities with ﬁrst payment at time 0 as (life) annuitiesdue
and to those with ﬁrst payment at time 1/m (and therefore last payment
at time n in the case of a ﬁnite term n over which the annuitant survives)
as (life) annuitiesimmediate. The present value of the insurance company’s
payment under the life annuity contract is
(Tm−x)m
¸
k=0
F(k/m) v
k/m
(4.3)
Here the situation is deﬁnitely simpler in the case where the payment
amounts F(k/m) are level or constant, for then the lifeannuitydue payment
stream becomes an annuitydue certain (the kind discussed previously under
the Theory of Interest) as soon as the random variable T is ﬁxed. Indeed,
if we replace F(k/m) by 1/m for k = 0, 1, . . . , nm− 1, and by 0 for
larger indices k, then the present value in equation (4.3) is ¨ a
(m)
min(Tm+1/m, n)
,
and its expected present value (= net single premium) is denoted ¨ a
(m)
x:n
.
In the case of temporary life annuitiesimmediate, which have payments
commencing at time 1/m and continuing at intervals 1/m either until
death or for a total of nm payments, the expectedpresent value notation
100 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
is a
(m)
x:n
. However, unlike the case of annuitiescertain (i.e., nonrandom
duration annuities), one cannot simply multiply the present value of the life
annuitydue for ﬁxed T by the discountfactor v
1/m
in order to obtain the
corresponding present value for the life annuityimmediate with the same
term n. The diﬀerence arises because the payment streams (for the life
annuitydue deferred 1/m year and the lifeannuity immediate) end at the
same time rather than with the same number of payments when death occurs
before time n. The correct conversionformula is obtained by treating the
life annuityimmediate of term n as paying, in all circumstances, a present
value of 1/m (equal to the cash payment at policy initiation) less than
the life annuitydue with term n + 1/m. Taking expectations leads to the
formula
a
(m)
x:n
= ¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m
− 1/m (4.4)
In both types of life annuities, the superscripts
(m)
are dropped from the
net single premium notations when m = 1, and the subscript n is dropped
when n = ∞.
The third major type of insurance contract is the Endowment, which
pays a contractual face amount F(0) at the end of n policy years if the
policyholder initially aged x survives to age x + n. This contract is the
simplest, since neither the amount nor the time of payment is uncertain. The
pure endowment contract commits the insurer to
pay an amount F(0) at time n if T ≥ x +n
The present value of the pure endowment contract payment is
F(0) v
n
if T ≥ x +n, 0 otherwise (4.5)
The net single premium or expected present value for a pure endowment
contract with face amount F(0) = 1 is denoted A
1
x:n
or
n
E
x
and is
evidently equal to
A
1
x:n
=
n
E
x
= v
n
n
p
x
(4.6)
The other contract frequently referred to in beginning actuarial texts is
the Endowment Insurance, which for a life aged x and term n is simply
the sum of the pure endowment and the term insurance, both with term n
and the same face amount 1. Here the contract calls for the insurer to
4.1. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES 101
pay $1 at time T
m
+
1
m
if T < n, and at time n if T ≥ n
The present value of this contract has the form v
n
on the event [T ≥ n]
and the form v
Tm−x+1/m
on the complementary event [T < n]. Note that
T
m
+ 1/m ≤ n whenever T < n. Thus, in both cases, the present value is
given by
v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
(4.7)
The expected present value of the unit endowment insurance is denoted A
(m)
x:n
.
Observe (for example in equation (4.10) below) that the notations for the
net single premium of the term insurance and of the pure endowment are
intended to be mnemonic, respectively denoting the parts of the endowment
insurance determined by the expiration of life — and therefore positioning
the superscript 1 above the x — and by the expiration of the ﬁxed term,
with the superscript 1 in the latter case positioned above the n.
Another example of an insurance contract which does not need separate
treatment, because it is built up simply from the contracts already described,
is the nyear deferred insurance. This policy pays a constant face amount at
the end of the timeinterval 1/m of death, but only if death occurs after time
n , i.e., after age x +n for a new policyholder aged precisely x. When the
face amount is 1, the contractual payout is precisely the diﬀerence between
the unit wholelife insurance and the nyear unit term insurance, and the
formula for the net single premium is
A
(m)
x
− A
(m)1
x:n
(4.8)
Since this insurance pays a beneﬁt only if the insured survives at least
n years, it can alternatively be viewed as an endowment with beneﬁt equal
to a whole life insurance to the insured after n years (then aged x +n) if
the insured lives that long. With this interpretation, the nyear deferred
insurance has net single premium =
n
E
x
· A
x+n
. This expected present
value must therefore be equal to (4.8), providing the identity:
A
(m)
x
− A
(m)1
x:n
= v
n
n
p
x
· A
x+n
(4.9)
102 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.1.2 Formal Relations among Net Single Premiums
In this subsection, we collect a few useful identities connecting the diﬀerent
types of contracts, which hold without regard to particular lifetable interpo
lation assumptions. The ﬁrst, which we have already seen, is the deﬁnition of
endowment insurance as the superposition of a constantfaceamount term
insurance with a pure endowment of the same face amount and term. In
terms of net single premiums, this identity is
A
(m)
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+A
(m) 1
x:n
(4.10)
The other important identity concerns the relation between expected
present values of endowment insurances and life annuities. The great gener
ality of the identity arises from the fact that, for a ﬁxed value of the random
lifetime T, the present value of the life annuitydue payout coincides with
the annuitydue certain. The unit termn life annuitydue payout is then
given by
¨ a
(m)
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
=
1 −v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
d
(m)
The key idea is that the unit life annuitydue has present value which is a
simple linear function of the present value v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
of the unit en
dowment insurance. Taking expectations (over values of the random variable
T, conditionally given T ≥ x) in the present value formula, and substituting
A
(m)
x:n
as expectation of (4.7), then yields:
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= E
x
1 −v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
d
(m)
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n
d
(m)
(4.11)
where recall that E
x
( · ) denotes the conditional expectation E( ·  T ≥ x).
A more common and algebraically equivalent form of the identity (4.11) is
d
(m)
¨ a
(m)
x:n
+ A
(m)
x:n
= 1 (4.12)
To obtain a corresponding identity relating net single premiums for life
annuitiesimmediate to those of endowment insurances, we appeal to the
conversionformula (4.4), yielding
a
(m)
x:n
= ¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m
−
1
m
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n+1/m
d
(m)
−
1
m
=
1
i
(m)
−
1
d
(m)
A
(m)
x:n+1/m
(4.13)
4.1. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES 103
and
d
(m)
a
(m)
x:n
+A
(m)
x:n+1/m
=
d
(m)
i
(m)
= v
1/m
(4.14)
In these formulas, we have made use of the deﬁnition
m
d
(m)
= (1 +
i
(m)
m
)
(
i
(m)
m
)
leading to the simpliﬁcations
m
d
(m)
=
m
i
(m)
+ 1 ,
i
(m)
d
(m)
= 1 +
i
(m)
m
= v
−1/m
4.1.3 Formulas for Net Single Premiums
This subsection collects the expectationformulas for the insurance, annuity,
and endowment contracts deﬁned above. Throughout this Section, the same
conventions as before are in force (integer x and n, ﬁxed m, i, and
conditional survival function
t
p
x
) .
First, the expectation of the present value (4.2) of the random term in
surance payment (with level face value F(0) ≡ 1) is
A
1
x:n
= E
x
v
Tm−x+1/m
=
nm−1
¸
k=0
v
(k+1)/m
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
(4.15)
The index k in the summation formula given here denotes the multiple of
1/m beginning the interval [k/m, (k + 1)/m) within which the policy age
T −x at death is to lie. The summation itself is simply the weighted sum,
over all indices k such that k/m < n, of the present values v
(k+1)/m
to be paid by the insurer in the event that the policy age at death falls in
[k/m, (k +1)/m) multiplied by the probability, given in formula (4.1), that
this event occurs.
Next, to ﬁgure the expected present value of the life annuitydue with
term n, note that payments of 1/m occur at all policy ages k/m, k =
0, . . . , nm−1, for which T −x ≥ k/m. Therefore, since the present values
104 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
of these payments are (1/m) v
k/m
and the payment at k/m is made with
probability
k/m
p
x
,
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= E
x
nm−1
¸
k=0
1
m
v
k/m
I
[T−x≥k/m]
=
1
m
nm−1
¸
k=0
v
k/m
k/m
p
x
(4.16)
Finally the pure endowment has present value
n
E
x
= E
x
v
n
I
[T−x≥n]
= v
n
x
p
n
(4.17)
4.1.4 Expected Present Values for m = 1
It is clear that for the general insurance and life annuity payable at whole
year intervals ( m = 1 ), with payment amounts determined solely by the
wholeyear age [T] at death, the net single premiums are given by discrete
randomvariable expectation formulas based upon the present values (4.2)
and (4.3). Indeed, since the events {[T] ≥ x} and {T ≥ x} are identical
for integers x, the discrete random variable [T] for a life aged x has
conditional probabilities given by
P([T] = x +k  T ≥ x) =
k
p
x
−
k+1
p
x
=
k
p
x
· q
x+k
Therefore the expected present value of the termn insurance paying F(k)
at time k+1 whenever death occurs at age T between x+k and x+k+1
(with k < n) is
E
v
[T]−x+1
F([T] −x) I
[T≤x+n]
T ≥ x
=
n−1
¸
k=0
F(k) v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
Here and from now on, for an event B depending on the random lifetime
T, the notation I
B
denotes the socalled indicator random variable which is
equal to 1 whenever T has a value such that the condition B is satisﬁed
and is equal to 0 otherwise. The corresponding life annuity which pays
F(k) at each k = 0, . . . , n at which the annuitant is alive has expected
present value
E
x
min(n, [T]−x)
¸
k=0
v
k
F(k)
= E
x
n
¸
k=0
v
k
F(k) I
[T≥x+k]
=
n
¸
k=0
v
k
F(k)
k
p
x
4.1. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES 105
In other words, the payment of F(k) at time k is received only if the
annuitant is alive at that time and so contributes expected present value
equal to v
k
F(k)
k
p
x
. This makes the annuity equal to the superposition
of pure endowments of terms k = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n and respective faceamounts
F(k).
In the most important special case, where the nonzero faceamounts
F(k) are taken as constant, and for convenience are taken equal to 1 for
k = 0, . . . , n −1 and equal to 0 otherwise, we obtain the useful formulas
A
1
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
(4.18)
¨ a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
(4.19)
A
1
x:n
= E
x
v
n
I
[T−x≥n]
= v
n
n
p
x
(4.20)
A
x:n
=
∞
¸
k=0
v
min(n,k+1)
k
p
x
q
x+k
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
(
k
p
x
−
k+1
p
x
) + v
n
n
p
x
(4.21)
Two further manipulations which will complement this circle of ideas are
left as exercises for the interested reader: (i) ﬁrst, to verify that formula
(4.19) gives the same answer as the formula E
x
(¨ a
x:min([T]−x+1, n)
) ; and
(ii) second, to sum by parts (collecting terms according to like subscripts k
of
k
p
x
in formula (4.21)) to obtain the equivalent expression
1 +
n−1
¸
k=0
(v
k+1
−v
k
)
k
p
x
= 1 −(1 −v)
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
The reader will observe that this ﬁnal expression together with formula (4.19)
gives an alternative proof, for the case m = 1, of the identity (4.12).
Let us work out these formulas analytically in the special case where [T]
has the Geometric(1 −γ) distribution, i.e., where
P([T] = k) = P(k ≤ T < k + 1) = γ
k
(1 −γ) for k = 0, 1, . . .
106 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
with γ a ﬁxed constant parameter between 0 and 1. This would be
true if the force of mortality µ were constant at all ages, i.e., if T were
exponentially distributed with parameter µ, with f(t) = µe
−µt
for t ≥ 0.
In that case, P(T ≥ k) = e
−µk
, and γ = P(T = kT ≥ k) = 1−e
−µ
. Then
k
p
x
q
x+k
= P([T] = x +k  T ≥ x) = γ
k
(1 −γ) ,
n
p
x
= γ
n
so that
A
1
x:n
= (γv)
n
, A
1
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
γ
k
(1 −γ) = v(1 −γ)
1 −(γv)
n
1 −γv
Thus, for the case of interest rate i = 0.05 and γ = 0.97, corresponding
to expected lifetime = γ/(1 −γ) = 32.33 years,
A
x:20
= (0.97/1.05)
20
+
.03
1.05
·
1 −(.97/1.05)
20
(1 −(.97/1.05)
= .503
which can be compared with A
x
≡ A
1
x:∞
=
.03
.08
= .375.
The formulas (4.18)(4.21) are benchmarks in the sense that they repre
sent a complete solution to the problem of determining net single premiums
without the need for interpolation of the lifetable survival function between
integer ages. However the insurance, lifeannuity, and endowmentinsurance
contracts payable only at wholeyear intervals are all slightly impractical
as insurance vehicles. In the next chapter, we approach the calculation of
net single premiums for the more realistic context of mperiodperyear in
surances and life annuities, using only the standard cohort lifetable data
collected by integer attained ages.
4.2 ContinuousTime Expectations
So far in this Chapter, all of the expectations considered have been associ
ated with the discretized random lifetime variables [T] and T
m
= [mT]/m.
However, Insurance and Annuity contracts can also be deﬁned with re
spectively instantaneous and continuous payments, as follows. First, an
instantaneouspayment or continuous insurance with facevalue F
4.2. CONTINUOUS CONTRACTS & RESIDUAL LIFE 107
is a contract which pays an amount F at the instant of death of the in
sured. (In practice, this means that when the actual payment is made at
some later time, the amount paid is F together with interest compounded
from the instant of death.) As a function of the random lifetime T for the
insured life initially with exact integer age x, the present value of the amount
paid is F · v
T−x
for a wholelife insurance and F · v
T−x
· I
[T<x+n]
for an
nyear term insurance. The expected present values or net single premiums
on a life aged x are respectively denoted A
x
for a wholelife contract and
A
1
x:n
for an nyear temporary insurance. The continuous life annuity is
a contract which provides continuous payments at rate 1 per unit time for
duration equal to the smaller of the remaining lifetime of the annuitant or
the term of n years. Here the present value of the contractual payments,
as a function of the exact age T at death for an annuitant initially of exact
integer age x, is a
min(T−x, n)
where n is the (possibly inﬁnite) duration of
the life annuity. Recall that
a
K
=
∞
0
v
t
I
[t≤K]
dt =
K
0
v
t
dt = (1 −v
K
)/δ
is the present value of a continuous payment stream of 1 per unit time of
duration K units, where v = (1 +i)
−1
and δ = ln(1 +i) .
The objective of this section is to develop and interpret formulas for these
continuoustime net single premiums, along with one further quantity which
has been deﬁned as a continuoustime expectation of the lifetime variable T,
namely the mean residual life (also called complete life expectancy)
e
x
= E
x
(T − x) for a life aged x. The underlying general conditional
expectation formula (1.3) was already derived in Chapter 1, and we reproduce
it here in the form
E
x
{ g(T) } =
1
S(x)
∞
x
g(y) f(y) dy =
∞
0
g(x +t) µ(x +t)
t
p
x
dt (4.22)
We apply this formula directly for the three choices
g(y) = y −x , v
y−x
, or v
y−x
· I
[y−x<n]
which respectively have the conditional E
x
(·) expectations
e
x
, A
x
, A
1
x:n
108 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
For easy reference, the integral formulas for these three cases are:
e
x
= E
x
(T −x) =
∞
0
t µ(x +t)
t
p
x
dt (4.23)
A
x
= E
x
(v
T−x
) =
∞
0
v
t
µ(x +t)
t
p
x
dt (4.24)
A
1
x:n
= E
x
v
T−x
I
[T−x≤n]
=
n
0
v
t−x
µ(x +t)
t
p
x
dt (4.25)
Next, we obtain two additional formulas, for continuous life annuitiesdue
a
x
and a
x:n
which correspond to E
x
{g(T)} for the two choices
g(t) =
∞
0
v
t
I
[t≤y−x]
dt or
n
0
v
t
I
[t≤y−x]
dt
After switching the order of the integrals and the conditional expectations,
and evaluating the conditional expectation of an indicator as a conditional
probability, in the form
E
x
I
[t≤T−x]
= P(T ≥ x +t  T ≥ x) =
t
p
x
the resulting two equations become
a
x
= E
x
∞
0
v
t
I
[t≤T−x]
dt
=
∞
0
v
t
t
p
x
dt (4.26)
a
x:n
= E
x
n
0
v
t
I
[t≤T−x]
dt
=
n
0
v
t
t
p
x
dt (4.27)
As might be expected, the continuous insurance and annuity contracts
have a close relationship to the corresponding contracts with m payment
periods per year for large m. Indeed, it is easy to see that the term insurance
net single premiums
A
(m)1
x:n
= E
x
v
Tm−x+1/m
approach the continuous insurance value (4.24) as a limit when m →∞. A
simple proof can be given because the payments at the end of the fraction
4.2. CONTINUOUS CONTRACTS & RESIDUAL LIFE 109
1/m of year of death are at most 1/m years later than the continuous
insurance payment at the instant of death, so that the following obvious
inequalities hold:
A
1
x:n
≤ A
(m)1
x:n
≤ v
1/m
A
1
x:n
(4.28)
Since the righthand term in the inequality (4.28) obviously converges for
large m to the leftmost term, the middle term which is sandwiched in
between must converge to the same limit (4.25).
For the continuous annuity, (4.27) can be obtained as a limit of formulas
(4.16) using Riemann sums, as the number m of payments per year goes to
inﬁnity, i.e.,
a
x:n
= lim
m→∞
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= lim
m→∞
nm−1
¸
k=0
1
m
v
k/m
k/m
p
x
=
n
0
v
t
t
p
x
ds
The ﬁnal formula coincides with (4.27), according with the intuition that the
limit as m →∞ of the paymentstream which pays 1/m at intervals of time
1/m between 0 and T
m
− x inclusive is the continuous paymentstream
which pays 1 per unit time throughout the policyage interval [0, T −x).
Each of the expressions in formulas (4.23), (4.24), and (4.27) can be con
trasted with a related approximate expectation for a function of the integer
valued random variable [T] (taking m = 1). First, alternative general
formulas are developed for the integrals by breaking the formulas down into
sums of integrals over integerendpoint intervals and substituting the deﬁni
tion
k
p
x
/S(x +k) = 1/S(x) :
E
x
(g(T)) =
∞
¸
k=0
x+k+1
x+k
g(y)
f(y)
S(x)
dy changing to z = y−x−k
=
∞
¸
k=0
k
p
x
1
0
g(x +k +z)
f(x +k +z)
S(x +k)
dz (4.29)
Substituting into (4.29) the special function g(y) = y −x, leads to
e
x
=
∞
¸
k=0
k
p
x
k
S(x +k) −S(x +k + 1)
S(x +k)
+
1
0
z
f(x +k +z)
S(x +k)
dz
¸
(4.30)
Either of two assumptions between integer ages can be applied to simplify
the integrals:
110 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
(a) (Uniform distribution of failures) f(y) = f(x + k) = S(x + k) −
S(x +k + 1) for all y between x +k, x +k + 1 ;
(b) (Constant force of mortality) µ(y) = µ(x + k) for x + k ≤ y <
x +k + 1, in which case 1 −q
x+k
= exp(−µ(x +k)).
In case (a), the last integral in (4.30) becomes
1
0
z
f(x +k +z)
S(x +k)
dz =
1
0
z
S(x +k) −S(x +k + 1)
S(x +k)
dz =
1
2
q
x+k
and in case (b), we obtain within (4.30)
1
0
z
f(x +k +z)
S(x +k)
dz =
1
0
z µ(x +k) e
−z µ(x+k)
dz
which in turn is equal (after integration by parts) to
−e
−µ(x+k)
+
1 −e
−µ(x+k)
µ(x +k)
≈
1
2
µ(x +k) ≈
1
2
q
x+k
where the last approximate equalities hold if the death rates are small. It
follows, exactly in the case (a) where failures are uniformly distributed within
integerage intervals or approximately in case (b) when death rates are small,
that
e
x
=
∞
¸
k=0
(k +
1
2
)
k
p
x
q
x+k
=
∞
¸
k=0
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
+
1
2
(4.31)
The ﬁnal summation in (4.31), called the curtate life expectancy
˚e
x
=
∞
¸
k=0
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
(4.32)
has an exact interpretation as the expected number of whole years of life
remaining to a life aged x. The behavior of and comparison between com
plete and curtate life expectancies is explored numerically in subsection 4.2.1
below.
Return now to the general expression for E
x
(g(T)), substituting g(y) =
v
y−x
but restricting attention to case (a):
A
1
x:n
= E
¸
v
T−x
I
[T<x+n]
¸
=
n
¸
k=0
x+k+1
x+k
v
y−x
f(x +k)
S(x)
dy
4.2. CONTINUOUS CONTRACTS & RESIDUAL LIFE 111
=
n
¸
k=0
x+k+1
x+k
v
y−x
S(x +k) −S(x +k + 1)
S(x +k)
k
p
x
dy
=
n
¸
k=0
k
p
x
q
x+k
1
0
v
k+t
dt =
n
¸
k=0
k
p
x
q
x+k
v
k+1
1 −e
−δ
vδ
where v = 1/(1+i) = e
−δ
, and δ is the force of interest. Since 1−e
−δ
= iv,
we have found in case (a) that
A
1
x:n
= A
1
x:n
· (i/δ) (4.33)
Finally, return to the formula (4.27) under case (b) to ﬁnd
a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
k+1
k
v
t
t
p
x
dt =
n−1
¸
k=0
k+1
k
e
−(δ+µ)t
dt
=
n−1
¸
k=0
e
−(δ+µ)k
− e
−(δ+µ)(k+1)
δ +µ
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
·
1 −e
−(δ+µ)
δ +µ
Thus, in case (b) we have shown
a
x:n
=
1 −e
−(δ+µ)n
δ +µ
= ¨ a
x:n
·
1 −e
−(δ+µ)
δ +µ
(4.34)
In the last two paragraphs, we have obtained formulas (4.33) and (4.34)
respectively under cases (a) and (b) relating net single premiums for con
tinuous contracts to those of the corresponding singlepaymentperyear con
tracts. More elaborate relations will be given in the next Chapter between
net single premium formulas which do require interpolationassumptions for
probabilities of survival to times between integer ages to formulas for m = 1,
which do not require such interpolation.
4.2.1 Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies
Formulas (4.23) or (4.30) and (4.32) above respectively provide the complete
and curtate agespeciﬁc life expectancies, in terms respectively of survival
112 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
densities and lifetable data. Formula (4.31) provides the actuarial approxi
mation for complete life expectancy in terms of lifetable data, based upon
interpolationassumption (i) (Uniform mortality within year of age). In this
Section, we illustrate these formulas using the Illustrative simulated and ex
trapolated lifetable data of Table 1.1.
Life expectancy formulas necessarily involve life table data and/or sur
vival distributions speciﬁed out to arbitrarily large ages. While life tables
may be based on large cohorts of insured for ages up to the seventies and even
eighties, beyond that they will be very sparse and very dependent on the par
ticular small group(s) of aged individuals used in constructing the particular
table(s). On the other hand, the fraction of the cohort at moderate ages who
will survive past 90, say, is extremely small, so a reasonable extrapolation of
a wellestablished table out to age 80 or so may give suﬃciently accurate life
expectancy values at ages not exceeding 80. Life expectancies are in any case
forecasts based upon an implicit assumption of future mortality following ex
actly the same pattern as recent past mortality. Lifeexpectancy calculations
necessarily ignore likely changes in living conditions and medical technology
which many who are currently alive will experience. Thus an assertion of
great accuracy for a particular method of calculation would be misplaced.
All of the numerical lifeexpectancy calculations produced for the Figure
of this Section are based on the extrapolation (2.9) of the illustrative life table
data from Table 1.1. According to that extrapolation, deathrates q
x
for
all ages 78 and greater are taken to grow exponentially, with log(q
x
/q
78
) =
(x − 78) ln(1.0885). This exponential behavior is approximately but not
precisely compatible with a Gompertzform forceofmortality function
µ(78 +t) = µ(78) c
t
in light of the approximate equality µ(x) ≈ q
x
, an approximation which
progressively becomes less valid as the force of mortality gets larger. To see
this, note that under a Gompertz survival model,
µ(x) = Bc
x
, q
x
= 1 −exp
−Bc
x
c −1
ln c
and with c = 1.0885 in our setting, (c −1)/ ln c = 1.0436.
Since curtate life expectancy (4.32) relies directly on (extrapolated) life
table data, its calculation is simplest and most easily interpreted. Figure 4.1
4.3. EXERCISE SET 4 113
presents, as plotted points, the agespeciﬁc curtate life expectancies for in
teger ages x = 0, 1, . . . , 78. Since the complete life expectancy at each age
is larger than the curtate by exactly 1/2 under interpolation assumption
(a), we calculated for comparison the complete life expectancy at all (real
number) ages, under assumption (b) of piecewiseconstant force of mortality
within years of age. Under this assumption, by formula (3.11), mortality
within year of age (0 < t < 1) is
t
p
x
= (p
x
)
t
. Using formula (4.31) and
interpolation assumption (b), the exact formula for complete life expectancy
becomes
e
x
− ˚e
x
=
∞
¸
k=0
k
p
x
q
x+k
+ p
x+k
ln(p
x+k
)
− ln(p
x+k
)
The complete life expectancies calculated from this formula were found to
exceed the curtate life expectancy by amounts ranging from 0.493 at ages
40 and below, down to 0.485 at age 78 and 0.348 at age 99. Thus there is
essentially no new information in the calculated complete life expectancies,
and they are not plotted.
The aspect of Figure 4.1 which is most startling to the intuition is the
large expected numbers of additional birthdays for individuals of advanced
ages. Moreover, the large life expectancies shown are comparable to actual
US male mortality circa 1959, so would be still larger today.
4.3 Exercise Set 4
(1). For each of the following three lifetime distributions, ﬁnd (a) the
expected remaining lifetime for an individual aged 20, and (b)
7/12
q
40
/q
40
.
(i) Weibull(.00634, 1.2), with S(t) = exp(−0.00634 t
1.2
),
(ii) Lognormal(log(50), 0.325
2
), with S(t) = 1−Φ((log(t)−log(50))/0.325),
(iii) Piecewise exponential with force of mortality given the constant value
µ
t
= 0.015 for 20 < t ≤ 50, and µ
t
= 0.03 for t ≥ 50. In these
integrals, you should be prepared to use integrations by parts, gamma function
values, tables of the normal distribution function Φ(x), and/or numerical
integrations via calculators or software.
114 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
•
•
•
•
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•
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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•
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•
•
•
Expected number of additional whole years of life, by age
Age in years
C
u
r
t
a
t
e
L
i
f
e
E
x
p
e
c
t
a
n
c
y
0 20 40 60 80
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
Figure 4.1: Curtate life expectancy ˚e
x
as a function of age, calculated
from the simulated illustrative life table data of Table 1.1, with agespeciﬁc
deathrates q
x
extrapolated as indicated in formula (2.9).
4.3. EXERCISE SET 4 115
(2). (a) Find the expected present value, with respect to the constant
eﬀective interest rate r = 0.07, of an insurance payment of $1000 to be
made at the instant of death of an individual who has just turned 40 and
whose remaining lifetime T −40 = S is a continuous random variable with
density f(s) = 0.05 e
−0.05 s
, s > 0.
(b) Find the expected present value of the insurance payment in (a) if
the insurer is allowed to delay the payment to the end of the year in which
the individual dies. Should this answer be larger or smaller than the answer
in (a) ?
(3). If the individual in Problem 2 pays a life insurance premium P at
the beginning of each remaining year of his life (including this one), then
what is the expected total present value of all the premiums he pays before
his death ?
(4). Suppose that an individual has equal probability of dying within each
of the next 40 years, and is certain to die within this time, i.e., his age is x
and
k
p
x
−
k+1
p
x
= 0.025 for k = 0, 1, . . . , 39
Assume the ﬁxed interest rate r = 0.06.
(a) Find the net single wholelife insurance premium A
x
for this indi
vidual.
(b) Find the net single premium for the term and endowment insurances
A
1
x:20
and A
x:30
.
(5). Show that the expected whole number of years of remaining life for a
life aged x is given by
c
x
= E([T] −x T ≥ x) =
ω−x−1
¸
k=0
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
and prove that this quantity as a function of integer age x satisﬁes the
recursion equation
c
x
= p
x
(1 + c
x+1
)
(6). Show that the expected present value b
x
of an insurance of 1 payable
at the beginning of the year of death (or equivalently, payable at the end of
116 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
the year of death along with interest from the beginning of that same year)
satisﬁes the recursion relation (4.35) above.
(7). Prove the identity (4.9) algebraically.
For the next two problems, consider a cohort lifetable population for
which you know only that l
70
= 10, 000, l
75
= 7000, l
80
= 3000, and l
85
=
0, and that the distribution of deathtimes within 5year age intervals is
uniform.
(8). Find (a) ˚e
75
and (b) the probability of an individual aged 70 in
this lifetable population dying between ages 72.0 and 78.0.
(9). Find the probability of an individual aged 72 in this lifetable popula
tion dying between ages 75.0 and 83.0, if the assumption of uniform death
times within 5year intervals is replaced by:
(a) an assumption of constant force of mortality within 5year age
intervals;
(b) the Balducci assumption (of linearity of 1/S(t)) within 5year age
intervals.
(10). Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all
ages by the force of mortality
µ
t
=
.01 for 0 ≤ t < 1
.002 for 1 ≤ t < 5
.001 for 5 ≤ t < 20
.004 for 20 ≤ t < 40
.0001 · t for 40 ≤ t
Then (a) ﬁnd
30
p
10
, and (b) ﬁnd ˚e
50
.
(11). Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all
ages by the force of mortality
µ
t
=
.01 for 0 ≤ t < 10
.1 for 10 ≤ t < 30
3/t for 30 ≤ t
Then (a) ﬁnd
30
p
20
= the probability that an individual aged 20 survives
for at least 30 more years, and (b) ﬁnd ˚e
30
.
4.3. EXERCISE SET 4 117
(12). Assuming the same force of mortality as in the previous problem, ﬁnd
˚e
70
and A
60
if i = 0.09.
(13). The force of mortality for impaired lives is three times the standard
force of mortality at all ages. The standard rates q
x
of mortality at ages 95,
96, and 97 are respectively 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5 . What is the probability that
an impaired life age 95 will live to age 98 ?
(14). You are given a survival function S(x) = (10−x)
2
/100 , 0 ≤ x ≤ 10.
(a) Calculate the average number of future years of life for an individual
who survives to age 1.
(b) Calculate the diﬀerence between the force of mortality at age 1, and
the probability that a life aged 1 dies before age 2.
(15). An nyear term life insurance policy to a life aged x provides
that if the insured dies within the nyear period an annuitycertain of yearly
payments of 10 will be paid to the beneﬁciary, with the ﬁrst annuity payment
made on the policyanniversary following death, and the last payment made
on the N
th
policy anniversary. Here 1 < n ≤ N are ﬁxed integers. If
B(x, n, N) denotes the net single premium (= expected present value) for
this policy, and if mortality follows the law l
x
= C(ω − x)/ω for some
terminal integer age ω and constant C, then ﬁnd a simpliﬁed expression
for B(x, n, N) in terms of interestrate functions, ω, and the integers
x, n, N. Assume x +n ≤ ω.
(16). The father of a newborn child purchases an endowment and insurance
contract with the following combination of beneﬁts. The child is to receive
$100, 000 for college at her 18
th
birthday if she lives that long and $500, 000
at her 60
th
birthday if she lives that long, and the father as beneﬁciary is
to receive $200, 000 at the end of the year of the child’s death if the child
dies before age 18. Find expressions, both in actuarial notations and in
terms of v = 1/(1 + i) and of the survival probabilities
k
p
0
for the child,
for the net single premium for this contract.
118 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.4 Worked Examples
Example 1. Toy LifeTable (assuming uniform failures)
Consider the following lifetable with only six equallyspaced ages. (That
is, assume l
6
= 0.) Assume that the rate of interest i = .09, so that
v = 1/(1 +i) = 0.9174 and (1 −e
−δ
)/δ = (1 −v)/δ = 0.9582.
x Agerange l
x
d
x
e
x
A
x
0 0 – 0.99 1000 60 4.2 0.704
1 1 – 1.99 940 80 3.436 0.749
2 2 – 2.99 860 100 2.709 0.795
3 3 – 3.99 760 120 2.0 0.844
4 4 – 4.99 640 140 1.281 0.896
5 5 – 5.99 500 500 0.5 0.958
Using the data in this Table, and interest rate i = .09, we begin by cal
culating the expected present values for simple contracts for term insurance,
annuity, and endowment. First, for a life aged 0, a term insurance with
payoﬀ amount $1000 to age 3 has present value given by formula (4.18) as
1000 A
1
0:3
= 1000
0.917
60
1000
+ (0.917)
2
80
1000
+ (0.917)
3
100
1000
= 199.60
Second, for a life aged 2, a term annuitydue of $700 per year up to age
5 has present value computed from (4.19) to be
700 ¨ a
2:3
= 700
1 + 0.917
760
860
+ (0.917)
2
640
860
= 1705.98
For the same life aged 2, the 3year Endowment for $700 has present value
700 A
1
0:3
= 700 · (0.9174)
3
500
860
= 314.26
Thus we can also calculate (for the life aged 2) the present value of the
3year annuityimmediate of $700 per year as
700 ·
¨ a
2:3
− 1 + A
1
0:3
= 1705.98 −700 + 314.26 = 1320.24
4.4. WORKED EXAMPLES 119
We next apply and interpret the formulas of Section 4.2, together with
the observation that
j
p
x
· q
x+j
=
l
x+j
l
x
·
d
x+j
l
x+j
=
d
x+j
l
x
to show how the last two columns of the Table were computed. In particular,
by (4.31)
e
2
=
100
860
· 0 +
120
860
· 1 +
140
860
· 2 +
500
860
· 3 +
1
2
=
1900
860
+ 0.5 = 2.709
Moreover: observe that c
x
=
¸
5−x
k=0
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
satisﬁes the “recursion equa
tion” c
x
= p
x
(1 +c
x+1
) (cf. Exercise 5 above), with c
5
= 0, from which
the e
x
column is easily computed by: e
x
= c
x
+ 0.5.
Now apply the present value formula for conitunous insurance to ﬁnd
A
x
=
5−x
¸
k=0
k
p
x
q
x
v
k
1 −e
−δ
δ
= 0.9582
5−x
¸
k=0
k
p
x
q
x
v
k
= 0.9582 b
x
where b
x
is the expected present value of an insurance of 1 payable at the
beginning of the year of death (so that A
x
= v b
x
) and satisﬁes b
5
= 1
together with the recursionrelation
b
x
=
5−x
¸
k=0
k
p
x
q
x
v
k
= p
x
v b
x+1
+ q
x
(4.35)
(Proof of this recursion is Exercise 6 above.)
Example 2. Find a simpliﬁed expression in terms of actuarial exprected
present value notations for the net single premium of an insurance on a life
aged x, which pays F(k) = C ¨a
n−k
if death occurs at any exact ages
between x + k and x + k + 1, for k = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1, and interpret the
result.
Let us begin with the interpretation: the beneﬁciary receives at the end
of the year of death a lumpsum equal in present value to a payment stream
of $C annually beginning at the end of the year of death and terminating
at the end of the n
th
policy year. This payment stream, if superposed upon
120 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
an nyear life annuityimmediate with annual payments $C, would result
in a certain payment of $C at the end of policy years 1, 2, . . . , n. Thus
the expected present value in this example is given by
C a
n
− C a
x:n
(4.36)
Next we rework this example purely in terms of analytical formulas. By
formula (4.36), the net single premium in the example is equal to
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
C ¨ a
n−k+1
= C
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
1 −v
n−k
d
=
C
d
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
− v
n+1
n−1
¸
k=0
(
k
p
x
−
k+1
p
x
)
¸
=
C
d
¸
A
1
x:n
− v
n+1
(1 −
n
p
x
)
¸
=
C
d
¸
A
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
− v
n+1
(1 −
n
p
x
)
¸
and ﬁnally, by substituting expression (4.14) with m = 1 for A
x:n
, we
have
C
d
¸
1 − d ¨ a
x:n
− (1 −v) v
n
n
p
x
− v
n+1
¸
=
C
d
¸
1 − d (1 + a
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
) − d v
n
n
p
x
− v
n+1
¸
=
C
d
¸
v − d a
x:n
− v
n+1
¸
= C
1 −v
n
i
− a
x:n
= C {a
n
− a
x:n
}
So the analytically derived answer agrees with the one intuitively arrived at
in formula (4.36).
4.5. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 4 121
4.5 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4
T
m
= [Tm]/m
p. 97
P(T
m
= x +
k
m
 T ≥ x) =
k/m
p
x
−
(k+1)/m
p
x
=
k/m
p
x
·
1/m
q
x+k/m
p. 98
Term life annuity a
(m)
x:n
= ¨ a
(m)
x:n+1/m
− 1/m
p. 100
Endowment A
1
x:n
=
n
E
x
= v
n
n
p
x
p. 100
A
(m)
x
− A
(m)1
x:n
= v
n
n
p
x
· A
x+n
p. 101
A
(m)
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+A
(m) 1
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+
n
E
x
p. 102
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= E
x
1 −v
min(Tm−x+1/m, n)
d
(m)
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n
d
(m)
p. 102
d
(m)
¨ a
(m)
x:n
+ A
(m)
x:n
= 1
p. 102
A
1
x:n
= E
x
v
Tm−x+1/m
=
nm−1
¸
k=0
v
(k+1)/m
k/m
p
x 1/m
q
x+k/m
p. 103
122 CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
A
1
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
p. 105
¨ a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
p. 105
A
1
x:n
= E
x
v
n
I
[T−x≥n]
= v
n
n
p
x
p. 105
A
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
(
k
p
x
−
k+1
p
x
) + v
n
n
p
x
p. 105
Chapter 5
Premium Calculation
This Chapter treats the most important topics related to the calculation
of (risk) premiums for realistic insurance and annuity contracts. We be
gin by considering at length net single premium formulas for insurance and
annuities, under each of three standard assumptions on interpolation of the
survival function between integer ages, when there are multiple payments per
year. One topic covered more rigorously here than elsewhere is the calculus
based and numerical comparison between premiums under these slightly dif
ferent interpolation assumptions, justifying the standard use of the simplest
of the interpolation assumptions, that deaths occur uniformly within whole
years of attained age. Next we introduce the idea of calculating level premi
ums, setting up equations balancing the stream of level premium payments
coming in to an insurer with the payout under an insurance, endowment, or
annuity contract. Finally, we discuss single and level premium calculation
for insurance contracts where the death beneﬁt is modiﬁed by (fractional)
premium amounts, either as refunds or as amounts still due. Here the is
sue is ﬁrst of all to write an exact balance equation, then load it appropri
ately to take account of administrative expenses and the cushion required for
insurancecompany proﬁtability, and only then to approximate and obtain
the usual formulas.
123
124 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
5.1 mPayment Net Single Premiums
The objective in this section is to relate the formulas for net single premiums
for life insurance, life annuities, pure endowments and endowment insurances
in the case where there are multiple payment periods per year to the case
where there is just one. Of course, we must now make some interpolation
assumptions about withinyear survival in order to do this, and we consider
the three main assumptions previously introduced: piecewise uniform failure
distribution (constant failure density within each year), piecewise exponen
tial failure distribution (constant force of mortality within each year), and
Balducci assumption. As a practical matter, it usually makes relatively lit
tle diﬀerence which of these is chosen, as we have seen in exercises and will
illustrate further in analytical approximations and numerical tabulations.
However, of the three assumptions, Balducci’s is least important practically,
because of the remark that the force of mortality it induces within years is
actually decreasing (the reciprocal of a linear function with positive slope),
since formula (3.9) gives it under that assumption as
µ(x +t) = −
d
dt
ln S(x +t) =
q
x
1 −(1 −t) q
x
Thus the inclusion of the Balducci assumption here is for completeness only,
since it is a recurring topic for examination questions. However, we do not
give separate net single premium formulas for the Balducci case.
In order to display simple formulas, and emphasize closedform relation
ships between the net single premiums with and without multiple payments
per year, we adopt a further restriction throughout this Section, namely that
the duration n of the life insurance or annuity is an integer even though
m > 1. There is in principle no reason why all of the formulas cannot be
extended, one by one, to the case where n is assumed only to be an integer
multiple of 1/m, but the formulas are less simple that way.
5.1.1 Dependence Between Integer & Fractional Ages
at Death
One of the clearest ways to distinguish the three interpolation assumptions
is through the probabilistic relationship they impose between the greatest
5.1. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS 125
integer [T] or attained integer age at death and the fractional age T −[T]
at death. The ﬁrst of these is a discrete, nonnegativeintegervalued random
variable, and the second is a continuous random variable with a density on
the timeinterval [0, 1). In general, the dependence between these random
variables can be summarized through the calculated joint probability
P([T] = x +k, T −[T] < t  T ≥ x) =
x+k+t
x+k
f(y)
S(x)
dy =
t
q
x+k k
p
x
(5.1)
where k, x are integers and 0 ≤ t < 1. From this we deduce the following
formula (for k ≥ 0) by dividing the formula (5.1) for general t by the
corresponding formula at t = 1 :
P( T −[T] ≤ t  [T] = x +k) =
t
q
x+k
q
x+k
(5.2)
where we have used the fact that T −[T] < 1 with certainty.
In case (i) from Section 3.2, with the density f assumed piecewise
constant, we already know that
t
q
x+k
= t q
x+k
, from which formula (5.2)
immediately implies
P( T −[T] ≤ t  [T] = x +k) = t
In other words, given complete information about the age at death, the
fractional age at death is always uniformly distributed between 0, 1. Since
the conditional probability does not involve the age at death, we say under
the interpolation assumption (i) that the fractional age and wholeyear age
at death are independent as random variables.
In case (ii), with piecewise constant force of mortality, we know that
t
q
x+k
= 1 −
t
p
x+k
= 1 − e
−µ(x+k) t
and it is no longer true that fractional and attained ages at death are inde
pendent except in the very special (completely artiﬁcial) case where µ(x+k)
has the same constant value µ for all x, k. In the latter case, where T
is an exponential random variable, it is easy to check from (5.2) that
P( T −[T] ≤ t  [T] = x +k) =
1 −e
−µt
1 −e
−µ
126 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
In that case, T − [T] is indeed independent of [T] and has a truncated
exponential distribution on [0, 1), while [T] has the Geometric(1 − e
−µ
)
distribution given, according to (5.1), by
P([T] = x +k  T ≥ x) = (1 −e
−µ
)(e
−µ
)
k
In case (iii), under the Balducci assumption, formula (3.8) says that
1−t
q
x+t
= (1 − t) q
x
, which leads to a special formula for (5.2) but not
a conclusion of conditional independence. The formula comes from the cal
culation
(1 −t) q
x+k
=
(1−t)
q
x+k+t
= 1 −
p
x+k
t
p
x+k
leading to
t
q
x+k
= 1 −
t
p
x+k
= 1 −
p
x+k
1 −(1 −t) q
x+k
=
t q
x+k
1 −(1 −t) q
x+k
Thus Balducci implies via (5.2) that
P( T −[T] ≤ t  [T] = x +k) =
t
1 −(1 −t) q
x+k
5.1.2 Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (i)
In this setting, the formula (4.15) for insurance net single premium is simpler
than (4.16) for life annuities, because
j/m
p
x+k
−
(j+1)/m
p
x+k
=
1
m
q
x+k
Here and throughout the rest of this and the following two subsections,
x, k, j are integers and 0 ≤ j < m, and k +
j
m
will index the possi
ble values for the last multiple T
m
− x of 1/m year of the policy age at
death. The formula for net single insurance premium becomes especially
simple when n is an integer, because the double sum over j and k factors
into the product of a sum of terms depending only on j and one depending
only on k :
A
(m)1
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
m−1
¸
j=0
v
k+(j+1)/m
1
m
q
x+k k
p
x
5.1. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS 127
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
q
x+k k
p
x
v
−1+1/m
m
m−1
¸
j=0
v
j/m
= A
1
x:n
v
−1+1/m
¨ a
(m)
1
= A
1
x:n
v
−1+1/m
1 −v
d
(m)
=
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
(5.3)
The corresponding formula for the case of noninteger n can clearly be
written down in a similar way, but does not bear such a simple relation to
the onepaymentperyear net single premium.
The formulas for life annuities should not be rederived in this setting but
rather obtained using the general identity connecting endowment insurances
with life annuities. Recall that in the case of integer n the net single premium
for a pure nyear endowment does not depend upon m and is given by
A
1
x:n
=
n
p
x
v
n
Thus we continue by displaying the net single premium for an endowment
insurance, related in the mpaymentperiodper year case to the formula with
single endofyear payments:
A
(m)
x:n
= A
(m)1
x:n
+ A
1
x:n
=
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
+
n
p
x
v
n
(5.4)
As a result of (4.11), we obtain the formula for net single premium of a
temporary lifeannuity due:
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n
d
(m)
=
1
d
(m)
1 −
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
−
n
p
x
v
n
Reexpressing this formula in terms of annuities on the righthand side, using
¨ a
x:n
= d
−1
(1 − v
n
n
p
x
− A
1
x:n
), immediately yields
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
d i
d
(m)
i
(m)
¨ a
x:n
+
1 −
i
i
(m)
1 −v
n
n
p
x
d
(m)
(5.5)
The last formula has the form that the lifeannuity due with m payments
per year is a weighted linear combination of the lifeannuity due with a single
payment per year, the nyear pure endowment, and a constant, where the
weights and constant depend only on interest rates and m but not on
survival probabilities:
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= α(m) ¨ a
x:n
− β(m) (1 −
n
p
x
v
n
)
= α(m) ¨ a
x:n
− β(m) + β(m) A
1
x:n
(5.6)
128 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
Table 5.1: Values of α(m), β(m) for Selected m, i
i m= 2 3 4 6 12
0.03
α(m) 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001 1.0001
β(m) 0.2537 0.3377 0.3796 0.4215 0.4633
0.05
α(m) 1.0002 1.0002 1.0002 1.0002 1.0002
β(m) 0.2562 0.3406 0.3827 0.4247 0.4665
0.07
α(m) 1.0003 1.0003 1.0004 1.0004 1.0004
β(m) 0.2586 0.3435 0.3858 0.4278 0.4697
0.08
α(m) 1.0004 1.0004 1.0005 1.0005 1.0005
β(m) 0.2598 0.3450 0.3873 0.4294 0.4713
0.10
α(m) 1.0006 1.0007 1.0007 1.0007 1.0008
β(m) 0.2622 0.3478 0.3902 0.4325 0.4745
Here the interestrate related constants α(m), β(m) are given by
α(m) =
d i
d
(m)
i
(m)
, β(m) =
i − i
(m)
d
(m)
i
(m)
Their values for some practically interesting values of m, i are given in
Table 5.1. Note that α(1) = 1, β(1) = 0, reﬂecting that ¨ a
(m)
x:n
coincides
with ¨ a
x:n
by deﬁnition when m = 1. The limiting case for i = 0 is given
in Exercises 6 and 7:
for i = 0 , m ≥ 1 , α(m) = 1 , β(m) =
m−1
2m
Equations (5.3), (5.5), and (5.6) are useful because they summarize con
cisely the modiﬁcation needed for onepaymentperyear formulas (which
used only lifetable and interestraterelated quantities) to accommodate mul
tiple paymentperiods per year. Let us specialize them to cases where either
5.1. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS 129
the duration n, the number of paymentperiods m, or both approach ∞.
Recall that failures continue to be assumed uniformly distributed within years
of age.
Consider ﬁrst the case where the insurances and lifeannuities are whole
life, with n = ∞. The net single premium formulas for insurance and life
annuity due reduce to
A
(m)
x
=
i
i
(m)
A
x
, ¨ a
(m)
x
= α(m) ¨ a
x
− β(m)
Next consider the case where n is again allowed to be ﬁnite, but where
m is taken to go to ∞, or in other words, the payments are taken to be
instantaneous. Recall that both i
(m)
and d
(m)
tend in the limit to the
forceofinterest δ, so that the limits of the constants α(m), β(m) are
respectively
α(∞) =
d i
δ
2
, β(∞) =
i − δ
δ
2
Recall also that the instantaneouspayment notations replace the superscripts
(m)
by an overbar. The singlepremium formulas for instantaneouspayment
insurance and lifeannuities due become:
A
1
x:n
=
i
δ
A
1
x:n
, a
x:n
=
d i
δ
2
¨ a
x:n
−
i −δ
δ
2
(1 −v
n
n
p
x
)
5.1.3 Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (ii)
In this setting, where the force of mortality is constant within single years of
age, the formula for lifeannuity net single premium is simpler than the one
for insurance, because for integers j, k ≥ 0,
k+j/m
p
x
=
k
p
x
e
−jµ
x+k
/m
Again restrict attention to the case where n is a positive integer, and
calculate from ﬁrst principles (as in 4.16)
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
m−1
¸
j=0
1
m
v
k+j/m
j/m
p
x+k k
p
x
(5.7)
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
m−1
¸
j=0
1
m
(ve
−µ
x+k
)
j/m
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
1 −vp
x+k
m(1 −(vp
x+k
)
1/m
)
130 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
where we have used the fact that when force of mortality is constant within
years, p
x+k
= e
−µ
x+k
. In order to compare this formula with equation (5.5)
established under the assumption of uniform distribution of deaths within
years of policy age, we apply the ﬁrstorder Taylor series approximation
about 0 for formula (5.7) with respect to the deathrates q
x+k
inside
the denominatorexpression 1 − (vp
x+k
)
1/m
= 1 − (v − vq
x+k
)
1/m
. (These
annual deathrates q
x+k
are actually small over a large range of ages for U.S.
life tables.) The ﬁnal expression in (5.7) will be Taylorapproximated in a
slightly modiﬁed form: the numerator and denominator are both multiplied
by the factor 1 −v
1/m
, and the term
(1 −v
1/m
)/(1 −(vp
x+k
)
1/m
)
will be analyzed ﬁrst. The ﬁrstorder Taylorseries approximation about
z = 1 for the function (1 −v
1/m
)/(1 −(vz)
1/m
) is
1 −v
1/m
1 −(vz)
1/m
≈ 1 −(1 −z)
v
1/m
(1 −v
1/m
) z
−1+1/m
m(1 −(vz)
1/m
)
2
z=1
= 1 −(1 −z)
v
1/m
m(1 −v
1/m
)
= 1 −
1 −z
i
(m)
Evaluating this Taylorseries approximation at z = p
x+k
= 1 − q
x+k
then
yields
1 −v
1/m
1 − (vp
x+k
)
1/m
≈ 1 −
q
x+k
i
(m)
Substituting this ﬁnal approximate expression into equation (5.7), with
numerator and denominator both multiplied by 1 − v
1/m
, we ﬁnd for
piecewiseconstant force of mortality which is assumed small
¨ a
(m)
x:n
≈
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
1 − vp
x+k
m(1 −v
1/m
)
(1 − q
x+k
/i
(m)
)
≈
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
1
d
(m)
1 − vp
x+k
−
1 −v
i
(m)
q
x+k
¸
(5.8)
where in the last line we have applied the identity m(1 −v
1/m
) = d
(m)
and
discarded a quadratic term in q
x+k
within the large curly bracket.
5.1. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS 131
We are now close to our ﬁnal objective: proving that the formulas (5.5)
and (5.6) of the previous subsection are in the present setting still valid as
approximate formulas. Indeed, we now prove that the ﬁnal expression (5.8)
is precisely equal to the righthand side of formula (5.6). The interest of
this result is that (5.6) applied to piecewiseuniform mortality (Case (i)),
while we are presently operating under the assumption of piecewiseconstant
hazards (Case ii). The proof of our assertion requires us to apply simple
identities in several steps. First, observe that (5.8) is equal by deﬁnition to
1
d
(m)
¨ a
x:n
− a
x:n
− v
−1
1 −v
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
(5.9)
Second, apply the general formula for ¨ a
x:n
as a sum to check the identity
¨ a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
= 1 − v
n
n
p
x
+ a
x:n
(5.10)
and third, recall the identity
¨ a
x:n
=
1
d
1 − A
1
x:n
− v
n
n
p
x
(5.11)
Substitute the identities (5.10) and (5.11) into expression (5.9) to reexpress
the latter as
1
d
(m)
1 − v
n
n
p
x
−
i
i
(m)
(1 − v
n
n
p
x
− d ¨ a
x:n
)
=
d i
d
(m)
i
(m)
¨ a
x:n
+
1
d
(m)
(1 − v
n
n
p
x
) (1 −
i
i
(m)
) (5.12)
The proof is completed by remarking that (5.12) coincides with expression
(5.6) in the previous subsection.
Since formulas for the insurance and life annuity net single premiums can
each be used to obtain the other when there are m payments per year, and
since in the case of integer n, the pure endowment single premium A
1
x:n
does not depend upon m, it follows from the result of this section that all
of the formulas derived in the previous section for case (i) can be used as
approximate formulas (to ﬁrst order in the deathrates q
x+k
) also in case
(ii).
132 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
5.2 Approximate Formulas via Case(i)
The previous Section developed a Taylorseries justiﬁcation for using the very
convenient netsinglepremium formulas derived in case (i) (of uniform distri
bution of deaths within whole years of age) to approximate the corresponding
formulas in case (ii) (constant force of mortality within whole years of age.
The approximation was derived as a ﬁrstorder Taylor series, up to linear
terms in q
x+k
. However, some care is needed in interpreting the result,
because for this step of the approximation to be accurate, the yearbyyear
deathrates q
x+k
must be small compared to the nominal rate of interest
i
(m)
. While this may be roughly valid at ages 15 to 50, at least in developed
countries, this is deﬁnitely not the case, even roughly, at ages larger than
around 55.
Accordingly, it is interesting to compare numerically, under several as
sumed death and interest rates, the individual terms A
(m)1
x:k+1
− A
(m)1
x:k
which arise as summands under the diﬀerent interpolation assumptions. (Here
and throughout this Section, k is an integer.) We ﬁrst recall the formulas for
cases (i) and (ii), and for completeness supply also the formula for case (iii)
(the Balducci interpolation assumption). Recall that Balducci’s assumption
was previously faulted both for complexity of premium formulas and lack
of realism, because of its consequence that the force of mortality decreases
within whole years of age. The following three formulas are exactly valid
under the interpolation assumptions of cases (i), (ii), and (iii) respectively.
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
=
i
i
(m)
v
k+1
k
p
x
· q
x+k
(5.13)
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
= v
k+1
k
p
x
(1 −p
1/m
x+k
)
i +q
x+k
1 + (i
(m)
/m) −p
1/m
x+k
(5.14)
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
= v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
m−1
¸
j=0
p
x+k
v
−j/m
m(1 −
j+1
m
q
x+k
) (1 −
j
m
q
x+k
)
(5.15)
Formula (5.13) is an immediate consequence of the formula A
(m)1
x:n
=
i A
1
x:n
/ i
(m)
derived in the previous section. To prove (5.14), assume (ii) and
calculate from ﬁrst principles and the identities v
−1/m
= 1 + i
(m)
/m and
5.2. APPROXIMATE FORMULAS VIA CASE(I) 133
p
x+k
= exp(−µ
x+k
) that
m−1
¸
j=0
v
k+(j+1)/m
k
p
x
(
j/m
p
x+k
−
(j+1)/m
p
x+k
)
= v
k+1
k
p
x
v
−1+1/m
(1 −e
−µ
x+k
/m
)
m−1
¸
j=0
(v e
−µ
x+k
)
j/m
= v
k+1
k
p
x
(1 −e
−µ
x+k
/m
)
1 −v p
x+k
1 −(vp
x+k
)
1/m
·
v
−1
v
−1/m
= v
k+1
k
p
x
(1 −e
−µ
x+k
/m
)
i + q
x+k
1 +i
(m)
/m − p
1/m
x+k
Finally, for the Balducci case, (5.15) is established by calculating ﬁrst
j/m
p
x+k
=
p
x+k
1 −
1−j/m
q
x+k+j/m
=
p
x+k
1 −
m−j
m
q
x+k
Then the lefthand side of (5.15) is equal to
m−1
¸
j=0
v
k+(j+1)/m
k
p
x
(
j/m
p
x+k
−
(j+1)/m
p
x+k
)
= v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
v
−1+1/m
m−1
¸
j=0
p
x+k
v
j/m
m(1 −
m−j
m
q
x+k
) (1 −
m−j−1
m
q
x+k
)
which is seen to be equal to the righthand side of (5.15) after the change of
summationindex j
= m−j −1.
Formulas (5.13), (5.14), and (5.15) are progressively more complicated,
and it would be very desirable to stop with the ﬁrst one if the choice of
interpolation assumption actually made no diﬀerence. In preparing the fol
lowing Table, the ratios both of formulas (5.14)/(5.13) and of (5.15)/(5.13)
were calculated for a range of possible deathrates q = q
x+k
, interestrates
i, and paymentperiodsperyear m. We do not tabulate the results for
the ratios (5.14)/(5.13) because these ratios were equal to 1 to three decimal
places except in the following cases: the ratio was 1.001 when i ranged
from 0.05 to 0.12 and q = 0.15 or when i was .12 or .15 and q was .12,
achieving a value of 1.002 only in the cases where q = i = 0.15, m ≥ 4.
134 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
Such remarkable correspondence between the net single premium formulas
in cases (i), (ii) was by no means guaranteed by the previous Taylor series
calculation, and is made only somewhat less surprising by the remark that
the ratio of formulas (5.14)/(5.13) is smooth in both parameters q
x+k
, i and
exactly equal to 1 when either of these parameters is 0.
The Table shows a bit more variety in the ratios of (5.15)/(5.13), showing
in part why the Balducci assumption is not much used in practice, but also
showing that for a large range of ages and interest rates it also gives correct
answers within 1 or 2 %. Here also there are many cases where the Balducci
formula (5.15) agrees extremely closely with the usual actuarial (case (i))
formula (5.13). This also can be partially justiﬁed through the observation
(a small exercise for the reader) that the ratio of the righthand sides of
formulas (5.15) divided by (5.13) are identical in either of the two limiting
cases where i = 0 or where q
x+k
= 0. The Table shows that the deviations
from 1 of the ratio (5.15) divided by (5.13) are controlled by the parameter
m and the interest rate, with the deathrate much less important within the
broad range of values commonly encountered.
5.3 Net Level (Risk) Premiums
The general principle previously enunciated regarding equivalence of two dif
ferent (certain) paymentstreams if their present values are equal, has the
following extension to the case of uncertain (timeofdeathdependent) pay
ment streams: two such payment streams are equivalent (in the sense of
having equal ‘risk premiums’) if their expected present values are equal. This
deﬁnition makes sense if each such equivalence is regarded as the matching
of random income and payout for the insurer with respect to each of a large
number of independent (and identical) policies. Then the Law of Large
Numbers has the interpretation that the actual random net payout minus
income for the aggregate of the policies per policy is with very high prob
ability very close (percentagewise) to the mathematical expectation of the
diﬀerence between the singlepolicy payout and income. That is why, from
a purerisk perspective, before allowing for administrative expenses and the
‘loading’ or cushion which an insurer needs to maintain a very tiny proba
bility of going bankrupt after starting with a large but ﬁxed fund of reserve
5.3. NET LEVEL PREMIUMS 135
Table 5.2: Ratios of Values (5.15)/(5.13)
q
x+k
i m= 2 m= 4 m= 12
.002 .03 1.015 1.007 1.002
.006 .03 1.015 1.007 1.002
.02 .03 1.015 1.008 1.003
.06 .03 1.015 1.008 1.003
.15 .03 1.015 1.008 1.003
.002 .05 1.025 1.012 1.004
.006 .05 1.025 1.012 1.004
.02 .05 1.025 1.012 1.004
.06 .05 1.025 1.013 1.005
.15 .05 1.026 1.014 1.005
.002 .07 1.034 1.017 1.006
.006 .07 1.034 1.017 1.006
.02 .07 1.035 1.017 1.006
.06 .07 1.035 1.018 1.006
.15 .07 1.036 1.019 1.007
.002 .10 1.049 1.024 1.008
.006 .10 1.049 1.024 1.008
.02 .10 1.049 1.024 1.008
.06 .10 1.050 1.025 1.009
.15 .10 1.051 1.027 1.011
.002 .12 1.058 1.029 1.010
.006 .12 1.058 1.029 1.010
.02 .12 1.059 1.029 1.010
.06 .12 1.059 1.030 1.011
.15 .12 1.061 1.032 1.013
.002 .15 1.072 1.036 1.012
.006 .15 1.072 1.036 1.012
.02 .15 1.073 1.036 1.012
.06 .15 1.074 1.037 1.013
.15 .15 1.075 1.039 1.016
136 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
capital, this expected diﬀerence should be set equal to 0 in ﬁguring premi
ums. The resulting rule for calculation of the premium amount P which
must multiply the unit amount in a speciﬁed payment pattern is as follows:
P = Expected present value of life insurance, annuity, or endow
ment contract proceeds divided by the expected present value of
a unit amount paid regularly, according to the speciﬁed payment
pattern, until death or expiration of term.
5.4 Beneﬁts Involving Fractional Premiums
The general principle for calculating risk premiums sets up a balance be
tween expected payout by an insurer and expected payment stream received
as premiums. In the simplest case of level payment streams, the insurer re
ceives a lifeannuity due with level premium P, and pays out according
to the terms of the insurance product purchased, say a term insurance. If
the insurance purchased pays only at the end of the year of death, but the
premium payments are made m times per year, then the balance equation
becomes
A
1
x:n
= P · m¨ a
(m)
x:n
for which the solution P is called the level risk premium for a term insurance.
The reader should distinguish this premium from the level premium payable
m times yearly for an insurance which pays at the end of the (1/m)
th
year
of death. In the latter case, where the number of payment periods per year
for the premium agrees with that for the insurance, the balance equation is
A
(m)1
x:n
= P · m¨ a
(m)
x:n
In standard actuarial notations for premiums, not given here, level premiums
are annualized (which would result in the removal of a factor m from the
righthand sides of the last two equations).
Two other applications of the balancingequation principle can be made
in calculating level premiums for insurances which either (a) deduct the
additional premium payments for the remainder of the year of death from
the insurance proceeds, or (b) refund a prorata share of the premium for
5.4. BENEFITS INVOLVING FRACTIONAL PREMIUMS 137
the portion of the 1/m year of death from the instant of death to the
end of the 1/m year of death. Insurance contracts with provision (a) are
called insurances with installment premiums: the meaning of this term is
that the insurer views the full year’s premium as due at the beginning of the
year, but that for the convenience of the insured, payments are allowed to be
made in installments at m regularly spaced times in the year. Insurances
with provision (b) are said to have apportionable refund of premium, with
the implication that premiums are understood to cover only the period of
the year during which the insured is alive . First in case (a), the expected
amount paid out by the insurer, if each level premium payment is P and
the face amount of the policy is F(0), is equal to
F(0) A
(m)1
x:n
−
n−1
¸
k=0
m−1
¸
j=0
v
k+(j+1)/m
k+j/m
p
x
·
1/m
q
x+k+j/m
(m−1 −j) P
and the exact balance equation is obtained by setting this equal to the ex
pected amount paid in, which is again P m¨ a
(m)
x:n
. Under the interpolation
assumption of case (i), using the same reasoning which previously led to the
simpliﬁed formulas in that case, this balance equation becomes
F(0) A
(m)1
x:n
− A
1
x:n
P
m
m−1
¸
j=0
v
−(m−j−1)/m
(m−j −1) = P m¨ a
(m)
x:n
(5.16)
Although one could base an exact calculation of P on this equation, a further
standard approximation leads to a simpler formula. If the term (m−j −1)
is replaced in the ﬁnal sum by its average over j, or by m
−1
¸
m−1
j=0
(m−
j −1) = m
−1
(m−1)m/2 = (m−1)/2, we obtain the installment premium
formula
P =
F(0) A
(m)1
x:n
m¨ a
(m)
x:n
+
m−1
2
A
(m)1
x:n
and this formula could be related using previous formulas derived in Section
5.1 to the insurance and annuity net single premiums with only one payment
period per year.
In the case of the apportionable return of premium, the only assumption
usually considered is that of case (i), that the fraction of a single premium
payment which will be returned is on average 1/2 regardless of which of
138 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
the 1/m fractions of the year contains the instant of death. The balance
equation is then very simple:
A
(m)1
x:n
(F(0) +
1
2
P) = P m¨ a
(m)
x:n
(5.17)
and this equation has the straightforward solution
P =
F(0) A
(m)1
x:n
m¨ a
(m)
x:n
−
1
2
A
(m)1
x:n
It remains only to remark what is the eﬀect of loading for administrative
expenses and proﬁt on insurance premium calculation. If all amounts paid
out by the insurer were equally loaded (i.e., multiplied) by the factor 1 +
L, then formula (5.17) would involve the loading in the second term of
the denominator, but this is apparently not the usual practice. In both
the apportionable refund and installment premium contracts, as well as the
insurance contracts which do not modify proceeds by premium fractions, it is
apparently the practice to load the level premiums P directly by the factor
1+L, which can easily be seen to be equivalent to inﬂating the faceamount
F(0) in the balanceformulas by this factor.
5.5 Exercise Set 5
(1). Show from ﬁrst principles that for all integers x, n, and all ﬁxed
interestrates and lifedistributions
a
x:n
= ¨ a
x:n
− 1 + v
n
n
p
x
(2). Show from ﬁrst principles that for all integers x, and all ﬁxed interest
rates and lifedistributions
A
x
= v ¨ a
x
− a
x
Show further that this relation is obtained by taking the expectation on both
sides of an identity in terms of present values of paymentstreams, an identity
whoch holds for each value of (the greatest integer [T] less than or equal
to) the exactageatdeath random variable T.
5.5. EXERCISE SET 5 139
(3). Using the same idea as in problem (2), show that (for all x, n, interest
rates, and lifedistributions)
A
1
x:n
= v ¨ a
x:n
− a
x:n
(4). Suppose that a life aged x (precisely, where x is an integer) has
the survival probabilities p
x+k
= 0.98 for k = 0, 1, , . . . , 9. Suppose that
he wants to purchase a term insurance which will pay $30,000 at the end of
the quarteryear of death if he dies within the ﬁrst ﬁve years, and will pay
$10,000 (also at the end of the quarteryear of death) if he dies between exact
ages 5, 10. In both parts (a), (b) of the problem, assume that the interest
rate is ﬁxed at 5%, and assume wherever necessary that the individual’s
distribution of deathtime is uniform within each whole year of age.
(a) Find the net single premium of the insurance contract described.
(b) Suppose that the individual purchasing the insurance described
wants to pay level premiums semiannually, beginning immediately. Find
the amount of each semiannual payment.
(5). Redo problem (4) assuming in place of the uniform distribution of age
at death that the insured individual has constant force of mortality within
each whole year of age. Give your numerical answers to at least 6 signiﬁcant
ﬁgures so that you can compare the exact numerical answers in these two
problems.
(6). Using the exact expression for the interestrate functions i
(m)
, d
(m)
respectively as functions of i and d, expand these functions in Taylor
series about 0 up to quadratic terms. Use the resulting expressions to
approximate the coeﬃcients α(m), β(m) which were derived in the Chapter.
Hence justify the socalled traditional approximation
¨ a
(m)
x
≈ ¨ a
x
−
m−1
2m
(7). Justify the ‘traditional approximation’ (the displayed formula in Exer
cise 6) as an exact formula in the case (i) in the limit i → 0, by ﬁlling in
the details of the following argument.
No matter which policyyear is the year of death of the annuitant, the
policy with m = 1 (and expected present value ¨a
x
) pays 1 at the beginning
140 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
of that year while the policy with m > 1 pays amounts 1/m at the beginning
of each 1/m’th year in which the annuitant is alive. Thus, the annuity with
one payment per years pays more than the annuity with m > 1 by an absolute
amount 1−(T
m
−[T] +1/m). Under assumption (i), T
m
−[T] is a discrete
random variable taking on the possible values 0, 1, . . . , (m−1)/m each with
probability 1/m. Disregard the interest and presentvalue discounting on the
excess amount 1 −(T
m
−[T])/m paid by the mpaymentper year annuity,
and show that it is exactly (m−1)/2m.
(8). Give an exact formula for the error of the ‘traditional approximation’
given in the previous problem, in terms of m, the constant interest rate i (or
v = (1 +i)
−1
), and the constant force µ of mortality, when the lifetime T
is assumed to be distributed precisely as an Exponential(µ) random variable.
(9). Show that the ratio of formulas (5.14)/(5.13) is 1 whenever either
q
x+k
or i is set equal to 0.
(10). Show that the ratio of formulas (5.15)/(5.13) is 1 whenever either
q
x+k
or i is set equal to 0.
(11). For a temporary life annuity on a life aged 57, with beneﬁts deferred
for three years, you are given that µ
x
= 0.04 is constant, δ = .06, that
premiums are paid continuously (with m = ∞) only for the ﬁrst two years,
at rate P per year, and that the annuity beneﬁts are payable at beginnings
of years according to the following schedule:
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8+
Beneﬁt 0 0 0 10 8 6 4 2 0
(a) In terms of P, calculate the expected present value of the premiums
paid.
(b) Using the equivalence principle, calculate P numerically.
(12). You are given that (i) q
60
= 0.3, q
61
= 0.4, (ii) f denotes the
probability that a life aged 60 will die between ages 60.5 and 61.5 under the
assumption of uniform distribution of deaths within whole years of age, and
(iii) g denotes the probability that a life aged 60 will die between ages
60.5 and 61.5 under the Balducci assumption. Calculate 10, 000 · (g − f)
numerically, with accuracy to the nearest whole number.
5.5. EXERCISE SET 5 141
(13). You are given that S(40) = 0.500, S(41) = 0.475, i = 0.06, A
41
=
0.54, and that deaths are uniformly distributed over each year of age. Find
A
40
exactly.
(14). If a mortality table follows Gompertz’ law (with exponent c), prove
that
µ
x
= A
x
a
x
where A
x
is calculated at interest rate i while a
x
is calculated at a rate
of interest i
=
1+i
c
− 1.
(15). You are given that i = 0.10, q
x
= 0.05, and q
x+1
= 0.08, and that
deaths are uniformly distributed over each year of age. Calculate A
1
x:2
.
(16). A special life insurance policy to a life aged x provides that if death
occurs at any time within 15 years, then the only beneﬁt is the return of
premiums with interest compounded to the end of the year of death. If death
occurs after 15 years, the beneﬁt is $10, 000. In either case, the beneﬁt
is paid at the end of the year of death. If the premiums for this policy are
to be paid yearly for only the ﬁrst 5 years (starting at the time of issuance
of the policy), then ﬁnd a simpliﬁed expression for the level annual purerisk
premium for the policy, in terms of standard actuarial and interest functions.
(17). Prove that for every m, n, x, k, the net single premium for an
nyear term insurance for a life aged x, with beneﬁt deferred for k years,
and payable at the end of the 1/m year of death is given by either side of
the identity
A
n+k m
x
−A
k m
x
=
k
E
x
A
n m
x+k
First prove the identity algebraically; then give an alternative, intuitive ex
planation of why the righthand side represents the expected present value
of the same contingent payment stream as the lefthand side.
142 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
5.6 Worked Examples
Overview of Premium Calculation for SingleLife Insurance & Annuities
Here is a schematic overview of the calculation of net single and level pre
miums for life insurances and life annuities, based on lifetable or theoretical
survival probabilities and constant interest or discount rate. We describe the
general situation and follow a speciﬁc case study/example throughout.
(I) First you will be given information about the constant assumed in
terest rate in any of the equivalent forms i
(m)
, d
(m)
, or δ, and you should
immediately convert to ﬁnd the eﬀective annual interest rate (APR) i and
oneyear discount factor v = 1/(1 +i). In our casestudy, assume that
the force of interest δ is constant = −ln(0.94)
so that i = exp(δ) − 1 = (1/0.94) − 1 = 6/94, and v = 0.94. In terms
of this quantity, one immediately answers a question such as “what is the
present value of $1 at the end of 7
1
2
years ?” by: v
7.5
.
(II) Next you must be given either a theoretical survival function for
the random age at death of a life aged x, in any of the equivalent forms
S(x +t),
t
p
x
, f(x +t), or µ(x +t), or a cohortform lifetable, e.g.,
l
25
= 10,000
0
p
25
= 1.0
l
26
= 9,726
1
p
25
= 0.9726
l
27
= 9,443
2
p
25
= 0.9443
l
28
= 9,137
3
p
25
= 0.9137
l
29
= 8,818
4
p
25
= 0.8818
l
30
= 8,504
5
p
25
= 0.8504
From such data, one calculates immediately that (for example) the probabil
ity of dying at an odd attainedage between 25 and 30 inclusive is
(1 −0.9726) + (0.9443 −0.9137) + (0.8818 −0.8504) = 0.0894
The generally useful additional column to compute is:
q
25
= 1 −
1
p
25
= 0.0274,
1
p
25
−
2
p
25
= 0.0283,
2
p
25
−
3
p
25
= 0.0306
5.6. WORKED EXAMPLES 143
3
p
25
−
4
p
25
= 0.0319,
4
p
25
−
5
p
25
= 0.0314
(III) In any problem, the terms of the life insurance or annuity to be
purchased will be speciﬁed, and you should reexpress its present value in
terms of standard functions such as a
x:n
or A
1
x:n
. For example, suppose a
life aged x purchases an endowment/annuity according to which he receives
$10,000 once a year starting at age x+1 until either death occurs or n years
have elapsed, and if he is alive at the end of n years he receives $15,000.
This contract is evidently a superposition of a nyear pure endowment with
face value $15,000 and a nyear temporary life annuityimmediate with
yearly payments $10,000. Thus, the expected present value (= net single
premium) is
10, 000 a
x:n
+ 15, 000
n
p
x
v
n
In our casestudy example, this expected present value is
= 10000
0.94(0.9726) + 0.94
2
(0.9443) + 0.94
3
(0.9137) +
+ 0.94
4
(0.8818) + 0.94
5
(0.8504)
+ 15000(0.94
5
· 0.8504)
The annuity part of this net single premium is $38,201.09 , and the pure
endowment part is $9,361.68 , for a total net single premium of $47,562.77
(IV) The ﬁnal part of the premium computation problem is to specify
the type of payment stream with which the insured life intends to pay for
the contract whose expected present value has been ﬁgured in step (III). If
the payment is to be made at time 0 in one lump sum, then the net single
premium has already been ﬁgured and we are done. If the payments are to
be constant in amount (level premiums), once a year, to start immediately,
and to terminate at death or a maximum of n payments, then we divide
the net single premium by the expected present value of a unit life annuity
¨ a
x:n
. In general, to ﬁnd the premium we divide the net single premium of
(III) by the expected present value of a unit amount paid according to the
desired premiumpayment stream.
In the casestudy example, consider two cases. The ﬁrst is that the pur
chaser aged x wishes to pay in two equal installments, one at time 0 and
one after 3 years (with the second payment to be made only if he is alive at
that time). The expected present value of a unit amount paid in this fashion
is
1 + v
3
3
p
x
= 1 + (0.94)
3
0.9137 = 1.7589
144 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
Thus the premium amount to be paid at each payment time is
$ 47, 563 / 1.7589 = $27, 041
Alternatively, as a second example, suppose that the purchaser is in eﬀect
taking out his annuity/endowment in the form of a loan, and agrees to (have
his estate) repay the loan unconditionally (i.e. without regard to the event
of his death) over a period of 29 years, with 25 equal payments to be made
every year beginning at the end of 5 years. In this case, no probabilities
are involved in valuing the payment stream, and the present value of such a
payment stream of unit amounts is
v
4
a
25
= (0.94)
4
(.94/.06) (1 −(0.94)
25
) = 9.627
In this setting, the amount of each of the equal payments must be
$ 47, 563 / 9.627 = $ 4941
(V) To complete the circle of ideas given here, let us redo the case
study calculation of paragraphs (III) to cover the case where the insurance
has quarterly instead of annual payments. Throughout, assume that deaths
within years of attained age are uniformly distributed (case(i)).
First, the expected present value to ﬁnd becomes
10, 000 a
(4)
x:n
+ 15, 000 A
1
x:n
= 10000
¨ a
(4)
x:n
−
1
4
(1 −v
n
n
p
x
)
+ 15000 v
n
n
p
x
which by virtue of (5.6) is equal to
= 10000 α(4) ¨ a
x:n
− (1 −v
n
n
p
x
) (10000β(4) + 2500) + 15000 v
n
n
p
x
In the particular case with v = 0.94, x = 25, n = 5, and cohort lifetable
given in (II), the net single premium for the endowment part of the contract
has exactly the same value $9361.68 as before, while the annuity part now
has the value
10000 (1.0002991) (1 + 0.94(0.9726) + 0.94
2
(0.9443) + 0.94
3
(0.9137) +
+0.94
4
(0.8818)) − (6348.19) (1 −0.94
5
(0.8504)) = 39586.31
Thus the combined present value is 48947.99: the increase of 1385 in value
arises mostly from the earlier annuity payments: consider that the interest
on the annuity value for onehalf year is 38201(0.94
−0.5
−1) = 1200 .
5.7. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 5 145
5.7 Useful Formulas from Chapter 5
P([T] = x +k, T −[T] < t  T ≥ x) =
x+k+t
x+k
f(y)
S(x)
dy =
t
q
x+k k
p
x
p. 125
P( T −[T] ≤ t  [T] = x +k) =
t
q
x+k
q
x+k
p. 125
A
(m)1
x:n
=
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
under (i)
p. 127
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
1 −A
(m)
x:n
d
(m)
=
1
d
(m)
1 −
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
−
n
p
x
v
n
p. 127
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
d i
d
(m)
i
(m)
¨ a
x:n
+
1 −
i
i
(m)
1 −v
n
n
p
x
d
(m)
under (i)
p. 127
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= α(m) ¨ a
x:n
− β(m) (1 −
n
p
x
v
n
) under (i)
p. 127
α(m) =
d i
d
(m)
i
(m)
, β(m) =
i − i
(m)
d
(m)
i
(m)
p. 128
α(m) = 1 , β(m) =
m−1
2m
when i = 0
p. 128
146 CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
¨ a
(m)
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
1 −vp
x+k
m(1 −(vp
x+k
)
1/m
)
under (ii)
p. 129
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
=
i
i
(m)
v
k+1
k
p
x
· q
x+k
under (i)
p. 132
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
= v
k+1
k
p
x
(1 −p
1/m
x+k
)
i +q
x+k
1 + (i
(m)
/m) −p
1/m
x+k
under (ii)
p. 132
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
= v
k+1
k
p
x
q
x+k
m−1
¸
j=0
p
x+k
v
−j/m
m(1 −
j+1
m
q
x+k
) (1 −
j
m
q
x+k
)
under (iii) p. 132
Level Installment Risk Premium =
F(0) A
(m)1
x:n
m¨ a
(m)
x:n
+
m−1
2
A
(m)1
x:n
p. 137
Apportionable Refund Risk Premium =
F(0) A
(m)1
x:n
m¨ a
(m)
x:n
−
1
2
A
(m)1
x:n
p. 138
Chapter 6
Commutation Functions,
Reserves & Select Mortality
In this Chapter, we consider ﬁrst the historically important topic of Commu
tation Functions for actuarial calculations, and indicate why they lose their
computational usefulness as soon as the insurer entertains the possibility (as
demographers often do) that lifetable survival probabilities display some
slow secular trend with respect to year of birth. We continue our treatment
of premiums and insurance contract valuation by treating brieﬂy the idea
of insurance reserves and policy cash values as the lifecontingent analogue
of mortgage amortization and reﬁnancing. The Chapter concludes with a
brief section on Select Mortality, showing how models for selectpopulation
mortality can be used to calculate whether modiﬁed premium and deferral
options are suﬃcient protections for insurers to insure such populations.
6.1 Idea of Commutation Functions
The Commutation Functions are a computational device to ensure that net
single premiums for life annuities, endowments, and insurances from the same
life table and ﬁgured at the same interest rate, for lives of diﬀering ages and
for policies of diﬀering durations, can all be obtained from a single table look
up. Historically, this idea has been very important in saving calculational
labor when arriving at premium quotes. Even now, assuming that a govern
147
148 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
ing life table and interest rate are chosen provisionally, company employees
without quantitative training could calculate premiums in a spreadsheet for
mat with the aid of a life table.
To ﬁx the idea, consider ﬁrst the contract with the simplest netsingle
premium formula, namely the pure nyear endowment. The expected present
value of $1 one year in the future if the policyholder aged x is alive at that
time is denoted in older books as
n
E
x
and is called the actuarial present
value of a lifecontingent nyear future payment of 1:
A
1
x:n
=
n
E
x
= v
n
n
p
x
Even such a simple lifetable and interestrelated function would seem to re
quire a table in the two integer parameters x, n, but the following expression
immediately shows that it can be recovered simply from a single tabulated
column:
A
1
x:n
=
v
n+x
l
n+x
v
x
l
x
=
D
x+n
D
x
, D
y
≡ v
y
l
y
(6.1)
In other words, at least for integer ages and durations we would simply
augment the insurancecompany lifetable by the column D
x
. The addition
of just a few more columns allows the other main lifeannuity and insurance
quantities to be recovered with no more than simple arithmetic. Thus, if we
begin by considering whole life insurances (with only one possible payment
at the end of the year of death), then the net single premium is rewritten
A
x
= A
1
x:∞
=
∞
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
· q
x+k
=
∞
¸
k=0
v
x+k+1
(l
x+k
−l
x+k+1
)
v
x
l
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
v
y+1
d
y
D
x
=
M
x
D
x
, M
x
≡
∞
¸
y=x
v
y+1
d
y
The insurance of ﬁnite duration also has a simple expression in terms of the
same commutation columns M, D :
A
1
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
d
k+x
D
x
=
M
x
−M
x+n
D
x
(6.2)
6.1. IDEA OF COMMUTATION FUNCTIONS 149
Next let us pass to to life annuities. Again we begin with the life annuity
due of inﬁnite duration:
¨ a
x
= ¨ a
x:∞
=
∞
¸
k=0
v
k+x
l
k+x
D
x
=
N
x
D
x
, N
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
v
y
l
y
(6.3)
The commutation column N
x
turns is the reverse cumulative sum of the
D
x
column:
N
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
D
y
The expected present value for the ﬁniteduration lifeannuity due is obtained
as a simple diﬀerence
¨ a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+x
l
x+k
D
x
=
N
x
−N
x+n
D
x
There is no real need for a separate commutation column M
x
since, as
we have seen, there is an identity relating net single premiums for whole life
insurances and annuities:
A
x
= 1 − d ¨ a
x
Writing this identity with A
x
and ¨ a
x
replaced by their respective commutation
function formulas, and then multupliying through by D
x
, immediately yields
M
x
= D
x
− d N
x
(6.4)
Based on these tabulated commutation columns D, M, N, a quan
titatively unskilled person could use simple formulas and tables to provide
onthespot insurance premium quotes, a useful and desirable outcome even
in these days of accessible highpowered computing. Using the case(i) inter
polation assumption, the mpaymentperyear net single premiums A
(m)1
x:n
and ¨ a
(m)
x:n
would be related to their singlepayment counterparts (whose
commutationfunction formulas have just been provided) through the stan
dard formulas
A
(m)1
x:n
=
i
i
(m)
A
1
x:n
, ¨ a
(m)
x:n
= α(m) ¨ a
x:n
−β(m)
1 − A
1
x:n
150 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Table 6.1: Commutation Columns for the simulated US Male Illustrative
LifeTable, Table 1.1, with APR interestrate 6%.
Age x l
x
D
x
N
x
M
x
0 100000 100000.00 1664794.68 94233.66
5 96997 72481.80 1227973.94 69507.96
10 96702 53997.89 904739.10 51211.65
15 96435 40238.96 663822.79 37574.87
20 95840 29883.37 484519.81 27425.65
25 95051 22146.75 351486.75 19895.48
30 94295 16417.71 252900.70 14315.13
35 93475 12161.59 179821.07 10178.55
40 92315 8975.07 125748.60 7117.85
45 90402 6567.71 85951.37 4865.17
50 87119 4729.55 56988.31 3225.75
55 82249 3336.63 36282.55 2053.73
60 75221 2280.27 21833.77 1235.87
65 65600 1486.01 12110.79 685.52
70 53484 905.34 5920.45 335.12
75 39975 505.65 2256.41 127.72
That is,
A
(m)1
x:n
=
i
i
(m)
·
M
x
−M
x+n
D
x
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= α(m)
N
x
−N
x+n
D
x
− β(m) (1 −
D
x+n
D
x
)
To illustrate the realistic sizes of commutationcolumn numbers, we re
produce as Table 6.1 the main commutationcolumns for 6% APR interest,
in 5year intervals, for the illustrative simulated life table given on page 3.
6.1.1 Variablebeneﬁt Commutation Formulas
The only additional formulas which might be commonly needed in insurance
sales are the variablebeneﬁt term insurances with linearly increasing or de
6.1. IDEA OF COMMUTATION FUNCTIONS 151
creasing beneﬁts, and we content ourselves with showing how an additional
commutationcolumn could serve here. First consider the inﬁniteduration
policy with linearly increasing beneﬁt
IA
x
=
∞
¸
k=0
(k + 1) v
k+1
k
p
x
· q
x+k
This net single premium can be written in terms of the commutation func
tions already given together with
R
x
=
∞
¸
k=0
(x +k + 1) v
x+k+1
d
x+k
Clearly, the summation deﬁning IA
x
can be written as
∞
¸
k=0
(x +k + 1) v
k+1
k
p
x
· q
x+k
− x
∞
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x
· q
x+k
=
R
x
D
x
− x
M
x
D
x
Then, as we have discussed earlier, the ﬁniteduration linearlyincreasing
beneﬁt insurance has the expression
IA
1
x:n
= IA
x
−
∞
¸
k=n
(k + 1) v
k+x+1
d
x+k
D
x
=
R
x
−xM
x
D
x
−
R
x+n
−xM
x+n
D
x
and the net single premium for the linearlydecreasingbeneﬁt insurance,
which pays beneﬁt n − k if death occurs between exact policy ages k
and k + 1 for k = 0, . . . , n − 1, can be obtained from the increasing
beneﬁt insurance through the identity
DA
1
x:n
= (n + 1)A
1
x:n
−IA
1
x:n
Throughout all of our discussions of premium calculation — not just the
present consideration of formulas in terms of commutation functions — we
have assumed that for ages of prospective policyholders, the same interest
rate and life table would apply. In a future Chapter, we shall consider the
problem of premium calculation and reserving under variable and stochastic
interestrate assumptions, but for the present we continue to ﬁx the interest
rate i. Here we consider brieﬂy what would happen to premium calcula
tion and the commutation formalism if the key assumption that the same
152 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
life table applies to all insureds were to be replaced by an assumption in
volving interpolation between (the death rates deﬁned by) two separate life
tables applying to diﬀerent birth cohorts. This is a particular case of a
topic which we shall also take up in a future chapter, namely how extra
(‘covariate’ ) information about a prospective policyholder might change the
survival probabilities which should be used to calculate premiums for that
policyholder.
6.1.2 Secular Trends in Mortality
Demographers recognize that there are secular shifts over time in lifetable
agespeciﬁc deathrates. The reasons for this are primarily related to public
health (e.g., through the eradication or successful treatment of certain dis
ease conditions), sanitation, diet, regulation of hours and conditions of work,
etc. As we have discussed previously in introducing the concept of force of
mortality, the modelling of shifts in mortality patterns with respect to likely
causes of death at diﬀerent ages suggests that it is most natural to express
shifts in mortality in terms of forceofmortality and death rates rather than
in terms of probability density or populationwide relative numbers of deaths
in various ageintervals. One of the simplest models of this type, used for
projections over limited periods of time by demographers (cf. the text Intro
duction to Demography by M. Spiegelman), is to view agespeciﬁc deathrates
q
x
as locally linear functions of calendar time t. Mathematically, it may be
slightly more natural to make this assumption of linearity directly about the
force of mortality. Suppose therefore that in calendar year t, the force of
mortality µ
(t)
x
at all ages x is assumed to have the form
µ
(t)
x
= µ
(0)
x
+ b
x
t (6.5)
where µ
(0)
x
is the forceofmortality associated with some standard life table
as of some arbitrary but ﬁxed calendartime origin t = 0. The agedependent
slope b
x
will generally be extremely small. Then, placing superscripts
(t)
over all lifetable entries and ratios to designate calendar time, we calculate
k
p
(t)
x
= exp
−
k
0
µ
(t)
x+u
du
=
k
p
(t)
x
· exp(−t
k−1
¸
j=0
b
x+j
)
6.2. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY 153
If we denote
B
x
=
x
¸
y=0
b
y
and assume that the lifetable radix l
0
is not taken to vary with calendar
time, then the commutationfunction D
x
= D
(t)
x
takes the form
D
(t)
x
= v
x
l
0 x
p
(t)
0
= D
(0)
x
e
−tBx
(6.6)
Thus the commutationcolumns D
(0)
x
(from the standard lifetable) and B
x
are enough to reproduce the timedependent commutation column D, but
now the calculation is not quite so simple, and the timedependent commu
tation columns M, N become
M
(t)
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
v
y
(l
(t)
y
−l
(t)
y+1
) =
∞
¸
y=x
D
(0)
y
e
−tBy
1 −e
−t b
y+1
q
(0)
y
(6.7)
N
(t)
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
D
(0)
y
e
−tBy
(6.8)
For simplicity, one might replace equation (6.7) by the approximation
M
(t)
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
D
(0)
y
p
(0)
y
+t b
y+1
q
(0)
y
e
−tBy
None of these formulas would be too diﬃcult to calculate with, for example
on a handcalculator; moreover, since the calendar year t would be ﬁxed for
the printed tables which an insurance salesperson would carry around, the
virtues of commutation functions in providing quick premiumquotes would
not be lost if the life tables used were to vary systematically from one calendar
year to the next.
6.2 Reserve & Cash Value of a Single Policy
In longterm insurance policies paid for by level premiums, it is clear that
since risks of death rise very rapidly with age beyond middleage, the early
premium payments must to some extent exceed the early insurance costs.
154 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Our calculation of risk premiums ensures by deﬁnition that for each insurance
and/or endowment policy, the expected total present value of premiums paid
in will equal the expected present value of claims to be paid out. However,
it is generally not true within each year of the policy that the expected
present value of amounts paid in are equal to the expected present value of
amounts paid out. In the early policy years, the diﬀerence paid in versus
out is generally in the insurer’s favor, and the surplus must be set aside as a
reserve against expected claims in later policyyears. It is the purpose of the
present section to make all of these assertions mathematically precise, and to
show how the reserve amounts are to be calculated. Note once and for all that
loading plays no role in the calculation of reserves: throughout this Section,
‘premiums’ refer only to purerisk premiums. The loading portion of actual
premium payments is considered either as reimbursement of administrative
costs or as proﬁt of the insurer, but in any case does not represent buildup
of value for the insured.
Suppose that a policyholder aged x purchased an endowment or insur
ance (of duration at least t) t years ago, paid for with level premiums, and
has survived to the present. Deﬁne the net (level) premium reserve as
of time t to be the excess
t
V of the expected present value of the amount
to be paid out under the contract in future years over the expected present
value of further pure risk premiums to be paid in (including the premium
paid immediately, in case policy age t coincides with a time of premium
payment). Just as the notations P
1
x:n
, P
1
x:n
, etc., are respectively used to
denote the level annual premium amounts for a term insurance, an endow
ment, etc., we use the same system of sub and superscripts with the symbol
t
V to describe the reserves on these diﬀerent types of policies.
By deﬁnition, the net premium reserve of any of the possible types of
contract as of policyage t = 0 is 0 : this simply expresses the balance
between expected present value of amounts to be paid into and out of the
insurer under the policy. On the other hand, the terminal reserve under the
policy, which is to say the reserve
n
V just before termination, will diﬀer
from one type of policy to another. The main possibilities are the pure term
insurance, with reserves denoted
t
V
1
x:n
and terminal reserve
n
V
1
x:n
= 0, and
the endowment insurance, with reserves denoted
t
V
1
x:n
and terminal reserve
n
V
1
x:n
= 1. In each of these two examples, just before policy termination
there are no further premiums to be received or insurance beneﬁts to be paid,
6.2. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY 155
so that the terminal reserve coincides with the terminal (i.e., endowment)
beneﬁt to be paid at policy termination. Note that for simplicity, we do
not consider here the insurances or endowment insurances with m > 1
possible payments per year. The reserves for such policies can be obtained
as previously discussed from the onepaymentperyear case via interpolation
formulas.
The deﬁnition of net premium reserves is by nature prospective, referring
to future payment streams and their expected present values. From the def
inition, the formulas for reserves under the term and endowment insurances
are respectively given by:
t
V
1
x:n
= A
1
x+t:n−t
− P
1
x:n
· ¨ a
x+t:n−t
(6.9)
t
V
x:n
= A
x+t:n−t
− P
x:n
· ¨ a
x+t:n−t
(6.10)
One identity from our previous discussions of net single premiums im
mediately simpliﬁes the description of reserves for endowment insurances.
Recall the identity
¨ a
x:n
=
1 −A
x:n
d
=⇒ A
x:n
= 1 − d ¨ a
x:n
Dividing the second form of this identity through by the net single premium
for the life annuitydue, we obtain
P
x:n
=
1
¨ a
x:n
− d (6.11)
after which we immediately derive from the deﬁnition the reserveidentity
t
V
x:n
= ¨ a
x+t:n−t
P
x+t:n−t
− P
x:n
= 1 −
¨ a
x+t:n−t
¨ a
x:n
(6.12)
6.2.1 Retrospective Formulas & Identities
The notion of reserve discussed so far expresses a diﬀerence between expected
present value of amounts to be paid out and to be paid in to the insurer dating
from t years following policy initiation, conditionally given the survival of
the insured life aged x for the additional t years to reach age x + t. It
156 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
stands to reason that, assuming this reserve amount to be positive, there
must have been up to time t an excess of premiums collected over insurance
acquired up to duration t. This latter amount is called the cash value of
the policy when accumulated actuarially to time t, and represents a cash
amount to which the policyholder is entitled (less administrative expenses)
if he wishes to discontinue the insurance. (Of course, since the insured has
lived to age x + t, in one sense the insurance has not been ‘used’ at all
because it did not generate a claim, but an insurance up to policy age t was
in any case the only part of the purchased beneﬁt which could have brought
a payment from the insurer up to policy age t.) The insurance bought
had the time0 present value A
1
x:t
, and the premiums paid prior to time t
had time0 present value ¨ a
x:t
· P, where P denotes the level annualized
premium for the durationn contract actually purchased.
To understand clearly why there is a close connection between retrospec
tive and prospective diﬀerences between expected (present value of) amounts
paid in and paid out under an insurance/endowment contract, we state a
general and slightly abstract proposition.
Suppose that a lifecontingent payment stream (of duration n at
least t) can be described in two stages, as conferring a beneﬁt of
expected time0 present value U
t
on the policyageinterval [0, t)
(up to but not including policy age t ), and also conferring a
beneﬁt if the policyholder is alive as of policy age t with expected
present value as of time t which is equal to F
t
. Then the
total expected time0 present value of the contractual
payment stream is
U
t
+ v
t
t
p
x
F
t
Before applying this idea to the balancing of prospective and retrospective re
serves, we obtain without further eﬀort three useful identities by recognizing
that a term lifeinsurance, insurance endowment, and life annuitydue (all of
duration n) can each be divided into a before and after t component along
the lines of the displayed Proposition. (Assume for the following discussion
that the intermediate duration t is also an integer.) For the insurance, the
beneﬁt U
t
up to t is A
1
x:t
, and the contingent aftert beneﬁt F
t
is
A
1
x+t:n−t
. For the endowment insurance, U
t
= A
1
x:t
and F
t
= A
x+t:n−t
.
6.2. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY 157
Finally, for the life annuitydue, U
t
= ¨ a
x:t
and F
t
= ¨ a
x+t:n−t
. Assembling
these facts using the displayed Proposition, we have our three identities:
A
1
x:n
= A
1
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
A
1
x+t:n−t
(6.13)
A
x:n
= A
1
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
A
x+t:n−t
(6.14)
¨ a
x:n
= ¨ a
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
¨ a
x+t:n−t
(6.15)
The factor v
t
t
p
x
, which discounts present values from time t to the
present values at time 0 contingent on survival to t, has been called above
the actuarial present value. It coincides with
t
E
x
= A
1
x:t
, the expected
present value at 0 of a payment of 1 to be made at time t if the life aged x
survives to age x+t. This is the factor which connects the excess of insurance
over premiums on [0, t) with the reserves
t
V on the insurance/endowment
contracts which refer prospectively to the period [t, n]. Indeed, substituting
the identities (6.13), (6.14), and (6.15) into the identities
A
1
x:n
= P
1
x:n
¨ a
x:n
, A
x:n
= P
x:n
¨ a
x:n
yields
v
t
t
p
x t
V
1
x:n
= −
A
1
x:t
− P
1
x:n
¨ a
x:n
(6.16)
v
t
t
p
x t
V
x:n
= −
A
x:t
− P
x:t
¨ a
x:n
(6.17)
The interpretation in words of these last two equations is that the actuarial
present value of the net (level) premium reserve at time t (of either the
term insurance or endowment insurance contract) is equal to the negative of
the expected present value of the diﬀerence between the contract proceeds
and the premiums paid on [0, t).
Figure 6.1 provides next an illustrative set of calculated net level premium
reserves, based upon 6% interest, for a 40year term life insurance with face
amount 1, 000 for a life aged 40. The mortality laws used in this calculation,
chosen from the same families of laws used to illustrate forceofmortality
curves in Figures 2.3 and 2.4 in Chapter 2, are the same plausible mortality
laws whose survival functions are pictured in Figure 2.5. These mortality
laws are realistic in the sense that they closely mirror the US male mortality
in 1959 (cf. plotted points in Figure 2.5.) The cashreserve curves
t
V
40:40
as functions of t = 0, . . . , 40 are pictured graphically in Figure 6.1. Note
158 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
that these reserves can be very substantial: at policy age 30, the reserves
on the $1000 term insurance are respectively $459.17, $379.79, $439.06, and
$316.43.
6.2.2 Relating Insurance & Endowment Reserves
The simplest formulas for net level premium reserves in a general contract
arise in the case of endowment insurance
t
V
1
x:n
, as we have seen in formula
(6.12). In fact, for endowment and/or insurance contracts in which the period
of payment of level premiums coincides with the (ﬁnite or inﬁnite) policy
duration, the reserves for terminsurance and pureendowment can also be
expressed rather simply in terms of
t
V
x:n
. Indeed, reasoning from ﬁrst
principles with the prospective formula, we ﬁnd for the pure endowment
t
V
1
x:n
= v
n−t
n−t
p
x+t
−
v
n
n
p
x
¨ a
x:n
¨ a
x+t:n−t
from which, by substitution of formula (6.12), we obtain
V
1
x:n
= v
n−t
n−t
p
x+t
− v
n
n
p
x
1 −
t
V
x:n
(6.18)
Then, for net level reserves or cash value on a term insurance, we conclude
V
1
x:n
= (1 − v
n
n
p
x
)
t
V
x:n
+ v
n
n
p
x
− v
n−t
n−t
p
x+t
(6.19)
6.2.3 Reserves under Constant Force of Mortality
We have indicated above that the phenomenon of positive reserves relates in
some way to the aging of human populations, as reﬂected in the increasing
force of mortality associated with lifetable survival probabilities. A simple
benchmark example helps us here: we show that when lifetable survival is
governed at all ages x and greater by a constant force of mortality µ,
the reserves for term insurances are identically 0. In other words, the
expected present value of premiums paid in within each policy year exactly
compensates, under constant force of mortality, for the expected present
value of the amount to be paid out for that same policy year.
6.2. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY 159
Reserves for Term Insurance & Various Mortality Laws
Policy Age (years)
C
a
s
h
R
e
s
e
r
v
e
0 10 20 30 40
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
4
0
0
Lognormal(3.491, .246^2)
Weibull(3.653, 1.953e6)
Gamma(14.74, 0.4383)
Gompertz(3.46e3, 1.0918)
Figure 6.1: Net level premium reserves as a function of policy age for a 40
year term insurance to a life aged 40 with level beneﬁt 1000, at 6%, under the
same mortality laws pictured in Figures 2.5, with median age 72 at death.
For deﬁnitions of the mortality laws see the Examples of analytical forceof
mortality functions in Chapter 2.
160 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
The calculations here are very simple. Reasoning from ﬁrst principles,
under constant force of mortality
A
1
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
e
−µk
(1 −e
−µ
) = (e
µ
−1) (ve
−µ
)
1 − (ve
−µ
)
n
1 − ve
−µ
while
¨ a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k
e
−µk
=
1 − (ve
−µ
)
n
1 − ve
−µ
It follows from these last two equations that
P
1
x:n
= v (1 − e
−µ
)
which does not depend upon either age x (within the agerange where
constant force of mortality holds) or n . The immediate result is that for
0 < t < n
t
V
1
x:n
= ¨ a
x+t:n−t
P
1
x+t:n−t
−P
1
x:n
= 0
By contrast, since the terminal reserve of an endowment insurance must be
1 even under constant force of mortality, the intermediate net level premium
reserves for endowment insurance must be positive and growing. Indeed, we
have the formula deriving from equation (6.12)
t
V
x:n
= 1 −
¨ a
x+t:n−t
¨ a
x:n
= 1 −
1 −(ve
−µ
)
n−t
1 −(ve
−µ
)
n
6.2.4 Reserves under Increasing Force of Mortality
Intuitively, we should expect that a forceofmortality function which is ev
erywhere increasing for ages greater than or equal to x will result in inter
mediate reserves for term insurance which are positive at times between 0, n
and in reserves for endowment insurance which increase from 0 at t = 0 to
1 at t = n. In this subsection, we prove those assertions, using the simple
observation that when µ(x +y) is an increasing function of positive y,
k
p
x+y
= exp(−
k
0
µ
(
x +y +z) dz) in y (6.20)
6.2. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY 161
First suppose that 0 ≤ s < t ≤ n, and calculate using the displayed fact
that
k
p
x+y
decreases in y,
¨ a
x+t:n−t
=
n−t−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x+t
≤
n−t−1
¸
k=0
v
k+1
k
p
x+s
< ¨ a
x+s:n−s
Therefore ¨ a
x+t:n−t
is a decreasing function of t, and by formula (6.12),
t
V
x:n
is an increasing function of t, ranging from 0 at t = 0 to 1 at
t = 1.
It remains to show that for force of mortality which is increasing in age,
the net level premium reserves
t
V
1
x:n
for term insurances are positive for
t = 1, . . . , n −1. By equation (6.9) above, this assertion is equivalent to the
claim that
A
1
x+t:n−t
/¨ a
x+t:n−t
> A
1
x:n
/¨ a
x:n
To see why this is true, it is instructive to remark that each of the displayed
ratios is in fact a multiple v times a weighted average of deathrates: for
0 ≤ s < n,
A
1
x+s:n−s
¨ a
x+s:n−s
= v
¸
n−s−1
k=0
v
k
k
p
x+s
q
x+s+k
¸
n−s−1
k=0
v
k
k
p
x+s
¸
Now ﬁx the age x arbitrarily, together with t ∈ {1, . . . , n −1}, and deﬁne
q =
¸
n−1
j=t
v
j
j
p
x
q
x+j
¸
n−1
j=t
v
j
j
p
x
Since µ
x+y
is assumed increasing for all y, we have from formula (6.20)
that q
x+j
= 1 − p
x+j
is an increasing function of j, so that for k < t ≤
j, q
x+k
< q
x+j
and
for all k ∈ {0, . . . , t −1} , q
x+k
< q (6.21)
Moreover, dividing numerator and denominator of the ratio deﬁning q by
v
t
t
p
x
gives the alternative expression
v q =
¸
n−t−1
a=0
v
a
a
p
x+t
q
x+t+a
¸
n−t−1
a=0
v
a
a
p
x+t
= P
1
x+t:n−t
162 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Finally, using equation (6.21) and the deﬁnition of q once more, we calculate
A
1
x:n
¨ a
x:n
= v
¸
t−1
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
+
¸
n−t−1
j=t
v
j
j
p
x
q
x+j
¸
t−1
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
+
¸
n−t−1
j=t
v
j
j
p
x
= v
¸
t−1
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
q
x+k
+ q
¸
n−t−1
j=t
v
j
j
p
x
¸
t−1
k=0
v
k
k
p
x
+
¸
n−t−1
j=t
v
j
j
p
x
< v q = P
1
x+t:n−t
as was to be shown. The conclusion is that under the assumption of increasing
force of mortality for all ages x and larger,
t
V
1
x:n
> 0 for t = 1, . . . , n−1.
6.2.5 Recursive Calculation of Reserves
The calculation of reserves can be made very simple and mechanical in nu
merical examples with small illustrative life tables, due to the identities (6.13)
and (6.14) together with the easily proved recursive identities (for integers
t)
A
1
x:t+1
= A
1
x:t
+ v
t+1
t
p
x
q
x+t
A
x:t+1
= A
x:t
− v
t
t
p
x
+ v
t+1
t
p
x
= A
x:t
− d v
t
t
p
x
¨ a
x:t+1
= ¨ a
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
Combining the ﬁrst and third of these recursions with (6.13), we ﬁnd
t
V
1
x:n
=
−1
v
t
t
p
x
A
1
x:t
− P
1
x:n
¨ a
x:t
=
−1
v
t
t
p
x
A
1
x:t+1
− v
t+1
t
p
x
q
x+t
− P
1
x:n
¨ a
x:t+1
− v
t
t
p
x
= v p
x+t t+1
V
1
x:n
+ v q
x+t
− P
1
x:n
The result for terminsurance reserves is the single recursion
t
V
1
x:n
= v p
x+t t+1
V
1
x:n
+ v q
x+t
− P
1
x:n
(6.22)
which we can interpret in words as follows. The reserves at integer policy
age t are equal to the sum of the oneyearahead actuarial present value
of the reserves at time t + 1 and the excess of the present value of this
6.2. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY 163
year’s expected insurance payout (v q
x+t
) over this year’s received premium
(P
1
x:n
).
A completely similar algebraic proof, combining the oneyear recursions
above for endowment insurance and life annuitydue with identity (6.14),
yields a recursive formula for endowmentinsurance reserves (when t < n) :
t
V
x:n
= v p
x+t t+1
V
x:n
+ v q
x+t
− P
1
x:n
(6.23)
The verbal intepretation is as before: the future reserve is discounted by the
oneyear actuarial present value and added to the expected present value of
the oneyear term insurance minus the oneyear cash (risk) premium.
6.2.6 PaidUp Insurance
An insured may want to be aware of the cash value (equal to the reserve)
of an insurance or endowment either in order to discontinue the contract
and receive the cash or to continue the contract in its current form and
borrow with the reserve as collateral. However, it may also happen for various
reasons that an insured may want to continue insurance coverage but is
no longer able or willing to par further premiums. In that case, for an
administrative fee the insurer can convert the premium reserve to a single
premium for a new insurance (either with the same term, or wholelife) with
lesser beneﬁt amount. This is really not a new topic, but a combination of the
previous formulas for reserves and net single premiums. In this subsection,
we give the simpliﬁed formula for the case where the cash reserve is used as a
single premium to purchase a new wholelife policy. Two illustrative worked
examples on this topic are given in Section 6.6 below.
The general formula for reserves, now specialized for wholelife insur
ances, is
t
V
x
= A
x+t
−
A
x
¨ a
x
· ¨ a
x+t
= 1 −
¨ a
x+t
¨ a
x
This formula, which applies to a unit face amount, would be multiplied
through by the level beneﬁt amount B. Note that loading is disregarded
in this calculation. The idea is that any loading which may have applied
has been collected as part of the level premiums; but in practice, the insurer
might apply some further (possibly lesser) loading to cover future adminis
trative costs. Now if the cash or reserve value
t
V
x
is to serve as net single
164 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
premium for a new insurance, the new faceamount F is determined as of
the t policyanniversary by the balance equation
B ·
t
V
x
= F · A
x+t
which implies that the equivalent face amount of paidup insurance as
of policyage t is
F =
B
t
V
x
A
x+t
= B
1 −
¨ a
x+t
¨ a
x
(1 − d ¨ a
x+t
) (6.24)
6.3 Select Mortality Tables & Insurance
Insurers are often asked to provide life insurance converage to groups and/or
individuals who belong to special populations with mortality signiﬁcantly
worse than that of the general population. Yet such select populations
may not be large enough, or have a suﬃciently long datahistory, within the
insurer’s portfolio for survival probabilities to be wellestimated inhouse. In
such cases, insurers may provide coverage under special premiums and terms.
The most usual example is that such select risks may be issued insurance with
restricted or no beneﬁts for a speciﬁed period of time, e.g. 5 years. The stated
rationale is that after such a period of deferral, the select group’s mortality
will be suﬃciently like the mortality of the general population in order that
the insurer will be adequately protected if the premium in increased by some
standard multiple. In this Section, a slightly artiﬁcal calculation along these
lines illustrates the principle and gives some numerical examples.
Assume for simplicity that the general population has constant force of
mortality µ, and that the select group has larger force of mortality µ
∗
. If
the interest rate is i, and v = 1/(1+i), then the level yearly risk premium
for a kyear deferred wholelife insurance (of unit amount, payable at the end
of the year of death) to a randomly selected life (of any speciﬁed age x) from
the general population is easily calculated to be
Level Risk Premium = v
k
k
p
x
A
x+k
/¨ a
x
= (1 −e
−µ
) v
k+1
e
−µk
(6.25)
If this premium is multiplied by a factor κ > 1 and applied as the risk
premium for a kyear deferred wholelife policy to a member of the select
6.3. SELECT MORTALITY TABLES & INSURANCE 165
Table 6.2: Excess payout as given by formula (6.26) under a kyear deferred
whole life insurance with beneﬁt $1000, issued to a select population with
constant force of mortality µ
∗
for a level yearly premium which is a multiple
κ times the pure risk premium for the standard population which has force
ofmortality µ. Interest rate is i = 0.06 APR throughout.
k µ µ
∗
κ Excess Payout
0 0.02 0.03 1 109
0 0.02 0.03 2 112
5 0.02 0.03 1 63
5 0.02 0.03 1.42 0
0 0.05 0.10 1 299
0 0.05 0.10 3 330
5 0.05 0.10 1 95
5 0.05 0.10 1.52 0
3 0.05 0.10 1 95
3 0.05 0.10 1.68 0
population, then the expected excess (per unit of beneﬁt) of the amount
paid out under this select policy over the risk premiums collected, is
Excess Payout = v
k
k
p
∗
x
A
∗
x+k
− κ(1 −e
−µ
) v
k+1
e
−µk
¨ a
∗
x
=
v
k+1
1 −ve
−mu
∗
¸
(1 −e
−µ
)e
−µk
− (1 −e
−µ
∗
)e
−µ
∗
k
¸
(6.26)
where the probability, insurance, and annuity notations with superscripts
∗
are calculated using the select mortality distribution with force of mortality
µ
∗
. Because of the constancy of forces of mortality both in the general and
the select populations, the premiums and excess payouts do not depend on
the age of the insured. Table 6.3 shows the values of some of these excess
payouts, for i = 0.06, under several combinations of k, µ, µ
∗
, and κ. Note
that in these examples, select mortality with force of mortality multiplied by
1.5 or 2 is oﬀset, with suﬃcient protection to the insurer, by an increase of
40–60% in premium on wholelife policies deferring beneﬁts by 3 or 5 years.
Additional material will be added to this Section later. A calculation
166 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
along the same lines as the foregoing Table, but using the Gompertz(3.46e −
3, 1.0918) mortality law previously found to approximate well the realistic
Life Table data in Table 1.1, will be included for completeness.
6.4 Exercise Set 6
For the ﬁrst problem, use the Simulated Illustrative Life Table with commu
tator columns given as Table 6.1 on page 150, using 6% APR as the going
rate of interest. (Also assume, wherever necessary, that the distribution of
deaths within whole years of age is uniform.)
(1). (a) Find the level premium for a 20year term insurance of $5000 for
an individual aged 45, which pays at the end of the halfyear of death, where
the payments are to be made semiannually.
(b) Find the level annual premium for a wholelife insurance for an
individual aged 35, which pays $30,000 at the end of year of death if death
occurs before exact age 55 and pays $60,000 at the instant (i.e., day) of death
at any later age.
(2). You are given the following information, indirectly relating to the ﬁxed
rate of interest i and lifetable survival probabilities
k
p
x
.
(i) For a onepaymentperyear levelpremium 30year endowment insur
ance of 1 on a life aged x, the amount of reduced paidup endowment
insurance at the end of 10 years is 0.5.
(ii) For a onepaymentperyear levelpremium 20year endowment in
surance of 1 on a life aged x+10, the amount of reduced paidup insurance
at the end of 5 years is 0.3.
Assuming that cash values are equal to net level premium reserves and
reduced paidup insurances are calculated using the equivalence principle, so
that the cash value is equated to the net single premium of an endowment
insurance with reduced face value, calculate the amount of reduced paidup
insuranceat the end of 15 years for the 30year endowment insuranceof 1
on a life aged x. See the following Worked Examples for some relevant
formulas.
6.4. EXERCISE SET 6 167
(3). Give a formula for A
45
in terms of the following quantities alone:
25
p
20
, ¨ a
20:25
, P
20:25
,
25
P
20
, v
25
where
P
x:n
= A
x:n
¨ a
x:n
and
t
P
x
= A
x
¨ a
x:t
(4). A life aged 32 purchases a life annuity of 3000 per year. From tables,
we ﬁnd commutation function values
N
32
= 2210 , N
34
= 1988 , D
33
= 105
Find the net single premium for the annuity purchased if the ﬁrst yearly
payment is to be received (a) immediately, (b) in 1 year, and (c) in 2
years.
(5). Henry, who has just reached his 70
th
birthday, is retiring immediately
with a monthly pension income of 2500 for life, beginning in 1 month. Us
ing the uniformfailure assumption between birthdays and the commutation
function values M
70
= 26.2 and D
70
= 71 associated with the interest rate
i = 0.05, ﬁnd the expected present value of Henry’s retirement annuity.
(6). Find the cash value of a wholelife insurance for $100, 000 on a life aged
45 with yearly premiumpayments (which began at issuance of the policy)
after 25 years, assuming interest at 5% and constant forceofmortality
µ
40+t
= 0.07 for all t > 0.
(7). Suppose that 25 years ago, a life then aged 40 bought a whole
life insurance policy with quarterly premium payments and beneﬁt payable
at the end of the quarter of death, with loadingfactor 4%. Assume that
the interest rate used to ﬁgure present values and premiums on the policy
was 6% and that the lifetable survival probabilities used were
t
p
40
=
(60 −t)/60. If the insured is now alive at age 65, then ﬁnd the face amount
of paidup insurance which he is entitled to — with no further premiums
paid and no further loading applied — on a wholelife policy with beneﬁts
payable at the end of quarteryear of death.
(7). Verify formulas (6.25) and (6.26).
168 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
6.5 Illustration of Commutation Columns
Consider the following articial lifetable fragment, which we imagine to be
available together with data also for all older ages,on a population of potential
insureds:
x l
x
d
x
45 75000 750
46 74250 760
47 73490 770
48 72720 780
49 71940 790
50 71150
Let us imagine that the going rate of interest is 5% APR, and that we are
interested in calculating various life insurance and annuity riskpremiums for
levelbeneﬁt contracts and payments only on policy anniversaries (m = 1), on
lives aged 45 to 50. One way of understanding what commutation columns
do is to remark that all wholelife net single premiums of this type are calcu
lable directly from the tablefragment given along with the single additional
number A
50
= 0.450426. The point is that all of the commutation columns
D
x
, N
x
, M
x
for ages 45 to 49 can now be ﬁlled in. First, we use the identity
(6.4) to obtain
D
50
= 1.05
−50
71150 = 6204.54, M
50
= D
50
0.450426 = 2794.69
N
50
= D
50
¨ a
50
=
D
50
d
(1 − A
50
) =
1.05
0.05
(D
50
−M
50
) = 71606.99
Next we ﬁll in the rest of the columns for ages 45 to 49 by the deﬁnition of
D
x
as 1.05
x
l
x
and the simple recursive calculations
N
x
= N
x+1
+ D
x
, M
x
= M
x+1
+ v
x+1
d
x
Filling these values in for x = 49, 48, . . . , 45 gives the completed fragment
6.6. EXAMPLES ON PAIDUP INSURANCE 169
x l
x
d
x
D
x
N
x
M
x
45 75000 750 8347.24 106679.11 3267.81
46 74250 760 7870.25 98808.85 3165.07
47 73490 770 7418.76 91390.10 3066.85
48 72720 780 6991.45 84398.64 2972.47
49 71940 790 6587.11 77811.53 2891.80
50 71150 6204.54 71606.99 2794.69
From this table fragment we can deduce, for example, that a wholelife
annuitydue of $2000 per year to a life aged 47 has expected present value
2000 N
47
/D
47
= 24637.57 , or that a ﬁveyear term insurance of 100, 000 to
a life aged 45 has net single premium 100000 · (M
45
−M
50
)/D
50
= 5661.66 ,
or that a wholelife insurance of 200, 000 with level premiums payable for 5
years to a life aged 45 has level purerisk premiums of 200, 000 · M
45
/(N
45
−
N
50
) = 18631.78.
6.6 Examples on Paidup Insurance
Example 1. Suppose that a life aged 50 has purchased a whole life insurance
for $100, 000 with level annual premiums and has paid premiums for 15
years. Now, being aged 65, the insured wants to stop paying premiums and
convert the cash value of the insurance into (the net single premium for) a
fully paidup wholelife insurance. Using the APR interest rate of 6% and
commutator columns given in Table 6.1 and disregarding premium loading,
calculate the face amount of the new, paidup insurance policy.
Solution. Applying formula (6.24) to the Example, with x = 50, t =
15, B = 100, 000, and using Table 6.1,gives
F = 100, 000
D
65
−
N
65
D
50
N
50
(D
65
− d N
65
)
= 100, 000
1486.01 −
4729.55
56988.31
12110.79
1486.01 −
0.06
1.06
12110.79
= 60077.48
If the new insurance premium were to be ﬁgured with a loading such as
L
= 0.02, then the ﬁnal amount ﬁgured using purerisk premiums would be
170 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
divided by 1.02, because the cash value would then be regarded as a single
risk premium which when inﬂated by the factor 1+L
purchases the contract
of expected present value F · A
x+t
.
The same ideas can be applied to the reﬁguring of the amount of other
insurance contracts, such as an endowment, based upon an incomplete stream
of premium payments.
Example 2. Suppose that a 20year pure endowment for 50, 000 on a new
born governed by the lifetable and commutator columns in Table 6.1, with
seminannual premiums, but that after 15 years the purchaser can aﬀord no
more premium payments. Disregarding loading, and assuming uniform dis
tribution of deathtimes within single years of age, what is the beneﬁt amount
which the child is entitled to receive at age 20 if then alive ?
Solution. Now the prospective formula for cash value or reserve based on
initial beneﬁt amount B is
B
5
p
15
v
5
−
20
p
0
v
20
¨ a
(2)
15:5
¨ a
(2)
0:20
which will be used to balance the endowment F A
1
15:5
. Therefore, substi
tuting the approximate formula (5.6), we obtain
F = B ·
5
p
15
v
5
−
20
p
0
v
20
α(2) ¨ a
(2)
15:5
−β(2)(1 −
5
p
15
v
5
)
α(2) ¨ a
(2)
0:20
−β(2)(1 −
20
p
0
v
20
)
(
5
p
15
v
5
)
In the particular example, where i = 0.06, α(2) = 1.000212, and β(2) =
0.257391, we ﬁnd
F = 50000 ·
1 −
1.000212 (N
15
−N
20
) − 0.257391 (D
15
−D
20
)
1.000212 (N
0
−N
20
) − 0.257391 (D
0
−D
20
)
and using Table 6.1 it follows that F = 42400.91 .
6.7. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 6 171
6.7 Useful formulas from Chapter 6
Commutation Columns D
y
= v
y
l
y
, M
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
v
y+1
d
y
p. 148
n
E
x
=
D
x+n
D
x
, A
x
=
M
x
D
x
, A
1
x:n
=
M
x
−M
x+n
D
x
p. 148
N
x
=
∞
¸
y=x
v
y
l
y
=
∞
¸
y=x
D
y
, ¨ a
x
=
N
x
D
x
p. 149
¨ a
x:n
=
n−1
¸
k=0
v
k+x
l
x+k
D
x
=
N
x
−N
x+n
D
x
p. 148
M
x
= D
x
− d N
x
p. 149
A
(m)1
x:n
=
i
i
(m)
·
M
x
−M
x+n
D
x
p. 150
¨ a
(m)
x:n
= α(m)
N
x
−N
x+n
D
x
− β(m) (1 −
D
x+n
D
x
)
p. 150
t
V
1
x:n
= A
1
x+t:n−t
− P
1
x:n
· ¨ a
x+t:n−t
p. 155
172 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
t
V
x:n
= A
x+t:n−t
− P
x:n
· ¨ a
x+t:n−t
p. 155
P
x:n
=
1
¨ a
x:n
− d
p. 155
t
V
x:n
= ¨ a
x+t:n−t
P
x+t:n−t
− P
x:n
= 1 −
¨ a
x+t:n−t
¨ a
x:n
p. 155
A
1
x:n
= A
1
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
A
1
x+t:n−t
p. 157
A
x:n
= A
1
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
A
x+t:n−t
p. 157
¨ a
x:n
= ¨ a
x:t
+ v
t
t
p
x
¨ a
x+t:n−t
p. 157
v
t
t
p
x t
V
1
x:n
= −
A
1
x:t
− P
1
x:n
¨ a
x:n
p. 157
v
t
t
p
x t
V
x:n
= −
A
x:t
− P
x:t
¨ a
x:n
p. 157
V
1
x:n
= v
n−t
n−t
p
x+t
− v
n
n
p
x
1 −
t
V
x:n
p. 158
6.7. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 6 173
V
1
x:n
= (1 − v
n
n
p
x
)
t
V
x:n
+ v
n
n
p
x
− v
n−t
n−t
p
x+t
p. 158
t
V
1
x:n
= v p
x+t t+1
V
1
x:n
+ v q
x+t
− P
1
x:n
p. 162
Paidup insurance Amt = B
1 −
¨ a
x+t
¨ a
x
(1 − d ¨ a
x+t
)
p. 164
216 CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Bibliography
[1] Bowers, N., Gerber, H., Hickman, J., Jones, D. and Nesbitt, C. Actu
arial Mathematics Society of Actuaries, Itasca, Ill. 1986
[2] Cox, D. R. and Oakes, D. Analysis of Survival Data, Chapman and
Hall, London 1984
[3] Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Ap
plications, vol. I, 2nd ed. Wiley, New York, 1957
[4] Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Ap
plications, vol. II, 2nd ed. Wiley, New York, 1971
[5] Gerber, H. Life Insurance Mathematics, 3rd ed. SpringerVerlag,
New York, 1997
[6] Hogg, R. V. and Tanis, E. Probability and Statistical Inference,
5th ed. PrenticeHall Simon & Schuster, New York, 1997
[7] Jordan, C. W. Life Contingencies, 2nd ed. Society of Actuaries,
Chicago, 1967
[8] Kalbﬂeisch, J. and Prentice, R. The Statistical Analysis of Failure
Time Data, Wiley, New York 1980
[9] Kellison, S. The Theory of Interest. Irwin, Homewood, Ill. 1970
[10] Larsen, R. and Marx, M. An Introduction to Probability and its
Applications. PrenticeHall, Englewood Cliﬀs, NJ 1985
[11] Larson, H. Introduction to Probability Theory and Statistical
Inference, 3rd ed. Wiley, New York, 1982
217
218 BIBLIOGRAPHY
[12] Lee, E. T. Statistical Models for Survival Data Analysis, Lifetime
Learning, Belmont Calif. 1980
[13] Splus, version 3.4. MathSoft Inc., 1988, 1996
[14] Spiegelman, M. Introduction to Demography, Revised ed. Univ. of
Chicago, Chicago, 1968
[15] Venables, W. and Ripley, B. Modern Applied Statistics with Splus,
2nd ed. SpringerVerlag, New York, 1998
Solutions and Hints to Selected
Problems
219
ii 2.2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5
CONTENTS Comparison of Forces of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Exercise Set 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Useful Formulas from Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 61
3 Probability & Life Tables 3.1 3.2 3.3
Interpreting Force of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Interpolation Between Integer Ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Binomial Variables & Law of Large Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.3.1 Exact Probabilities, Bounds & Approximations . . . . 71
3.4
Simulation of Life Table Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 3.4.1 3.4.2 Expectation for Discrete Random Variables . . . . . . 76 Rules for Manipulating Expectations . . . . . . . . . . 78
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8
Some Special Integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Exercise Set 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Useful Formulas from Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 95
4 Expected Present Values of Payments 4.1
Expected Payment Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4 Types of Insurance & Life Annuity Contracts . . . . . 96 Formal Relations among Net Single Premiums . . . . . 102 Formulas for Net Single Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Expected Present Values for m = 1 . . . . . . . . . . . 104 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.2
Continuous Contracts & Residual Life
CONTENTS 4.2.1 4.3 4.4 4.5
iii Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies . . . . . . 111
Exercise Set 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 Useful Formulas from Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 123
5 Premium Calculation 5.1
mPayment Net Single Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 5.1.1 5.1.2 5.1.3 Dependence Between Integer & Fractional Ages at Death124 Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (i) . . . . . . . 126 Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (ii) . . . . . . . 129
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7
Approximate Formulas via Case(i) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Net Level Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Beneﬁts Involving Fractional Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Exercise Set 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Useful Formulas from Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 147
6 Commutation & Reserves 6.1
Idea of Commutation Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 6.1.1 6.1.2 Variablebeneﬁt Commutation Formulas . . . . . . . . 150 Secular Trends in Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6.2
Reserve & Cash Value of a Single Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 6.2.1 6.2.2 6.2.3 6.2.4 Retrospective Formulas & Identities . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Relating Insurance & Endowment Reserves . . . . . . . 158 Reserves under Constant Force of Mortality . . . . . . 158 Reserves under Increasing Force of Mortality . . . . . . 160
iv 6.2.5 6.2.6 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7
CONTENTS Recursive Calculation of Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 PaidUp Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Select Mortality Tables & Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 Exercise Set 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Illustration of Commutation Columns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 Examples on Paidup Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Useful formulas from Chapter 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 161
7 Population Theory 7.1
Population Functions & Indicator Notation . . . . . . . . . . . 161 7.1.1 Expectation & Variance of Residual Life . . . . . . . . 164
7.2 7.3 7.4
StationaryPopulation Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Estimation Using LifeTable Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Nonstationary Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 7.4.1 Appendix: Largetime Limit of λ(t, x) . . . . . . . . . 176
7.5 7.6
Exercise Set 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 Population Word Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 185
8 Estimation from LifeTable Data 8.1 8.2 8.3
General LifeTable Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 ML Estimation for Exponential Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 MLE for Age Speciﬁc Force of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 8.3.1 Extension to Random Entry & Censoring Times . . . . 193
8.4 8.5 8.6
KaplanMeier Survival Function Estimator . . . . . . . . . . . 194 Exercise Set 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
CONTENTS 9 Risk Models & Select Mortality 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5
v 197
Proportional Hazard Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 Excess Risk Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Select Life Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 Exercise Set 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 205
10 Multiple Decrement Models
10.1 Multiple Decrement Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 10.2 DeathRate Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 10.2.1 Deaths Uniform within Year of Age . . . . . . . . . . . 209 10.2.2 Force of Mortality Constant within Year of Age . . . . 210 10.2.3 CauseSpeciﬁc Death Rate Estimators . . . . . . . . . 210 10.3 SingleDecrement Tables and Net Hazards of Mortality . . . . 212 10.4 CauseSpeciﬁc Life Insurance Premiums . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 10.5 Exercise Set 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 10.6 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 11 Central Limit Theorem & Portfolio Risks 13 Bibliography Solutions & Hints 215 217 219
vi
CONTENTS
0.1
Preface
This book is a course of lectures on the mathematics of actuarial science. The idea behind the lectures is as far as possible to deduce interesting material on contingent present values and life tables directly from calculus and commonsense notions, illustrated through word problems. Both the Interest Theory and Probability related to life tables are treated as wonderful concrete applications of the calculus. The lectures require no background beyond a third semester of calculus, but the prerequisite calculus courses must have been solidly understood. It is a truism of preactuarial advising that students who have not done really well in and digested the calculus ought not to consider actuarial studies. It is not assumed that the student has seen a formal introduction to probability. Notions of relative frequency and average are introduced ﬁrst with reference to the ensemble of a cohort lifetable, the underlying formal random experiment being random selection from the cohort lifetable population (or, in the context of probabilities and expectations for ‘lives aged x’, from the subset of lx members of the population who survive to age x). The calculation of expectations of functions of a timetodeath random variables is rooted on the one hand in the concrete notion of lifetable average, which is then approximated by suitable idealized failure densities and integrals. Later, in discussing Binomial random variables and the Law of Large Numbers, the combinatorial and probabilistic interpretation of binomial coeﬃcients are derived from the Binomial Theorem, which the student the is assumed to know as a topic in calculus (Taylor series identiﬁcation of coeﬃcients of a polynomial.) The general notions of expectation and probability are introduced, but for example the Law of Large Numbers for binomial variables is treated (rigorously) as a topic involving calculus inequalities and summation of ﬁnite series. This approach allows introduction of the numerically and conceptually useful largedeviation inequalities for binomial random variables to explain just how unlikely it is for binomial (e.g., lifetable) counts to deviate much percentagewise from expectations when the underlying population of trials is large. The reader is also not assumed to have worked previously with the Theory of Interest. These lectures present Theory of Interest as a mathematical problemtopic, which is rather unlike what is done in typical ﬁnance courses.
. The main goal of these lectures is to reach — by a conceptual route — mathematical topics in Life Contingencies. and later. Premium Calculation and Demography not usually seen until rather late in the trajectory of quantitative Actuarial Examinations. Instead the introductory material from probability and interest theory are interleaved. Such an approach can allow undergraduates with solid preparation in calculus (not necessarily mathematics or statistics majors) to explore their possible interests in business and actuarial science. At the end of each chapter is an Exercise Set and a short section of Worked Examples to illustrate the kinds of word problems which can be solved by the techniques of the chapter. but every attempt has been made to develop the mathematics to ﬁt the actuarial applications as they arise logically. The Worked Examples sections show how the ideas and formulas work smoothly together.0. material is included on statistics of biomedical studies and on reliability which would not ordinarily ﬁnd its way into an actuarial course. While the material in these lectures is presented systematically. As a result. are ‘vertically integrated’ into a single course. It also allows the majority of such students — who will choose some other avenue. PREFACE
vii
Getting the typical Interest problems — such as the exercises on mortgage reﬁnancing and present values of various payoﬀ schemes — into correct format for numerical answers is often not easy even for good mathematics students. and they highlight the most important and frequently used formulas. from economics to operations research to statistics.1. etc. No book at this level can claim to be fully selfcontained. various mathematical ideas are introduced as needed to advance the discussion. for the exercise of their quantitative talents — to know something concrete and mathematically coherent about the topics and ideas actually useful in Insurance. Probability Theory. The coverage of the main body of each chapter is primarily ‘theoretical’. which seldom ﬁt coherently into undergraduate programs of study. from diﬀerential equations to maximum likelihood estimators based on complex lifetable data. A further result is that mathematical topics. Premium Calculation. it is not separated by chapters into uniﬁed topics such as Interest Theory. A secondary goal of the lectures has been to introduce varied topics of applied mathematics as part of a reasoned development of ideas related to survival data.
viii
CONTENTS
.
where lx = number of lives aged x (i. .
1. 2. but will likely want to supplement this Chapter with reading in any of a number of calculusbased introductions to probability and statistics. resulting in data dx . and Expectation
In the cohort lifetable model. treat S(x) = lx /l0 as a piecewise continuously diﬀerentiable non1
.Chapter 1 Basics of Probability and the Theory of Interest
The ﬁrst lectures supply some background on elementary Probability Theory and basic Theory of Interest. allowing the agevariable x to take all real values.1
Probability. or Hogg and Tanis (1997) and the basics of the Theory of Interest as covered in the text of Kellison (1970) or Chapter 1 of Gerber (1997). 1.e. The reader who has not previously studied these subjects may get a brief overview here. . x + 1 Now. . Lifetimes.. alive at birthday x ) and dx = lx − lx+1 = number dying between ages x. imagine a number l0 of individuals born simultaneously and followed until death. such as Larson (1982). lx for each age x = 0. Larsen and Marx (1985). not just whole numbers.
and conditional probability.1 for an illustration of a cohort lifetable with realistic numbers. such as Larson (1982). event. probability. we supply the fraction of the relevant lifetable population. to obtain identities like P r(life aged 29 dies between exact ages 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60 ) = S(35) − S(41) + S(52) − S(60) = (l35 − l41 ) + (l52 − l60 ) l29
where our convention is that a life aged 29 is one of the cohort surviving to the 29th birthday. The main ideas which are necessary to understand the discussion so far are really
. S(x) − S(x + t) is the fraction of the initial cohort which fails between time x and x + t. Then for all positive real x.g. Question: what do probabilities have to do with the life table and survival function ? To answer this.. Note: see any basic probability textbook. The idea here is that all of the lifetimes covered by the life table are understood to be governed by an identical “mechanism” of failure. and that any probability question about a single lifetime is really a question concerning the fraction of those lives about which the question is asked (e.. For now. those alive at age x) whose lifetimes will satisfy the stated property (e. using numbers from a cohort lifetable like that of the accompanying Illustrative Life Table.g.2
CHAPTER 1. which will bediscussed later. Larsen and Marx (1985). we ﬁrst introduce probability as simply a relative frequency. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
increasing function called the “survivor” or “survival” function. remark only that the life table population should be large for the ideas presented so far to make good sense. die either between 35 and 41 or between 52 and 60). See Table 1. In response to a probability question. or Hogg and Tanis (1997) for formal deﬁnitions of the notions of sample space. This “frequentist” notion of probability of an event as the relative frequency with which the event occurs in a large population of (independent) identical units is associated with the phrase “law of large numbers”. and S(x) − S(x + t) lx − lx+t = S(x) lx denotes the fraction of those alive at exact age x who fail before x + t.
1.1: Illustrative LifeTable.1. see Section 3. For details of simulation. simulated to resemble realistic US (Male) lifetable. PROBABILITY
3
Table 1.
Age x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 lx 100000 97371 97230 97123 97060 96997 96928 96859 96807 96753 96702 96669 96629 96582 96521 96435 96330 96247 96122 95989 95840 95686 95548 95385 95217 95051 94900 94751 94585 94428 94295 94135 93986 93834 93674 93475 93288 93076 92848 92576 dx 2629 141 107 63 63 69 69 52 54 51 33 40 47 61 86 105 83 125 133 149 154 138 163 168 166 151 149 166 157 133 160 149 152 160 199 187 212 228 272 261 x 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 lx 92315 92020 91688 91280 90866 90402 89870 89283 88603 87901 87119 86278 85393 84419 83337 82249 81036 79692 78269 76793 75221 73525 71741 69808 67786 65600 63339 60968 58542 56186 53484 50936 48259 45448 42685 39975 37127 34295 31460 dx 295 332 408 414 464 532 587 680 702 782 841 885 974 1082 1088 1213 1344 1423 1476 1572 1696 1784 1933 2022 2186 2261 2371 2426 2356 2702 2548 2677 2811 2763 2710 2848 2832 2835 2803
.4 below.
4
CHAPTER 1. and can be interpreted as the probability for a single individual to survive at least x time units. • When probabilities are requested with reference to a smaller universe of possible outcomes. where A ∩ B denotes the intersection or overlap of the two events A.. by the fundamental theorem of calculus.
. • Two events A. S(0) = 1. as long as P (B) > 0 — the conditional probability P (AB) expressing the probability of A if B were known to have occurred. Another way of summarizing the probabilities of survival given by this function is to deﬁne the density function f (x) = − dS (x) = −S (x) dx
as the (absolute) rate of decrease of the function S. is the same as the (unconditional) probability P (A). and the mechanism by which members of the population die. In addition. rather than all members of a cohort population. are summarized ﬁrst through the survivor function S(x) which at integer values of x agrees with the ratios lx /l0 . nonoverlapping) sets A and B is necessarily the sum of the separate probabilities P (A) and P (B). • The probability P (A ∪ B) of the union A ∪ B of disjoint (i.e. Then. B are deﬁned to be independent when P (A ∩ B) = P (A)·P (B) or — equivalently. B. the resulting conditional probabilities of events A are written P (A  B) and calculated as P (A ∩ B)/P (B). BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
matters of common sense when applied to relative frequency but require formal axioms when used more generally: • Probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1 assigned to subsets of the entire range of possible outcomes (in the examples. S(x) is a decreasing function of x. such as B = lives aged 29. Since fewer people are alive at larger ages. and in applications S(x) should be piecewise continuously diﬀerentiable (largely for convenience. by deﬁnition. subsets of the interval of possible human lifetimes measured in years). for any ages a < b. and because any analytical expression which would be chosen for S(x) in practice will be piecewise smooth). Note that S(x) has values between 0 and 1. The lifetable data.
1. b] is equal to the area under the curve y = f (x) over the xinterval [a. and suppose that the contract provides a speciﬁc function Y = g(T ) according to which this payment depends on (the wholenumber part of) the age T at which death occurs. Note also that the ‘probability’ rule which assigns the integral A f (x) dx to the set A (which may be an interval. Suppose there is a contractual amount Y which must be paid (say. or a still more complicated set) obviously satisﬁes the ﬁrst two of the bulleted axioms displayed above. The terminal age ω of a life table is an integer value large enough that S(ω) is negligibly small. While ω is ﬁnite in real lifetables and in some analytical survival models. which for present purposes means a variable which takes various values x with probabilities governed by the life table data lx and the survivor function S(x) or density function f (x) in a formula like the one just given in equation (1. a union of intervals.1). What is the average value of such a payment over all individuals whose lifetimes are reﬂected in the lifetable ? Since dx = lx − lx+1 individuals (out of the original l0 ) die at ages between x and x + 1. but no value S(t) for t < ω is zero.1. Think of the age T at which a speciﬁed newly born member of the population will die as a random variable.1)
which has the very helpful geometric interpretation that the probability of dying within the interval [a. For practical purposes. PROBABILITY
5
P (life aged 0 dies between ages a and b) = (la − lb )/l0
b b
= S(a) − S(b) =
(−S (x)) dx =
a a
f (x) dx
(1. the total payment to all individuals in the lifetable can be written as
x
(lx − lx+1 ) g(x)
Thus the average payment. no individual lives to the ω birthday. to the heirs of that individual) at the time T of death of the individual. at least under the assumption that Y = g(T )
. most theoretical forms for S(x) have no ﬁnite age ω at which S(ω) = 0. thereby generating a payment g(x). and in those forms ω = ∞ by convention. Now we are ready to deﬁne some terms and motivate the notion of expectation. b].
if the restriction that g(t) depends only on the integer part [t] of t were dropped . The same idea and formula can be applied to the restricted population of lives aged x. t + ∆]. where the weights are just the relative frequency in the life table with which those payments are received. The expectation is a weighted ∞ average because the weights f (t)∆ sum to the integral 0 f (t)dt = 1. Recall from the Riemannintegral construction in Calculus that the integral f (t)g(t)dt can be regarded approximately as the sum over very small timeintervals [t. More generally.2)
This quantity. t + ∆] — multiplied by f (t) ∆. E(Y ) = 0 g(t)f (t)dt is the average of values g(T ) obtained for lifetimes T within small intervals [t. then the expectation of Y = g(T ) would be given by the same formula E(Y ) = E(g(T )) =
0 ∞
f (t) g(t) dt
The last displayed integral. like all expectation formulas. the total contingent payment over the whole cohort divided by the number in the cohort. The latter quantity is. In summary. t + ∆]. is called the expectation of the random payment Y = g(T ) in this special case. t + ∆] weighted by the probabilities of approximately f (t)∆ with which those T and g(T ) values are obtained. The term f (t)g(t)∆ can alternatively be interpreted as the product of the value g(t) — essentially equal to any of the values g(T ) which can be realized when T falls within the interval [t. t + ∆]. and is by deﬁnition equal to the ∞ probability with which T ∈ [t. by the Fundamental Theorem of the Calculus. t + ∆] of the quantities f (t)g(t)∆. with weights equal to the probabilities of obtaining those values. quantities which are interpreted as the base ∆ of a rectangle multiplied by its height f (t)g(t). The resulting quantity is then called the conditional
.6
CHAPTER 1. and the rectangle closely covers the area under the graph of the function f g over the interval [t. approximately equal for small ∆ to the area under the function f over the interval [t. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
depends only on the largest whole number [T ] less than or equal to T . and can be interpreted as the weighted average of all of the diﬀerent payments g(x) actually received. can be understood as a weighted average of values g(T ) obtained over a population. is
x
(lx − lx+1 ) g(x) / l0 = =
x x+1 x
x
(S(x) − S(x + 1))g(x)
∞ 0
f (t) g(t) dt =
f (t) g(t) dt
(1.
2. the socalled conditional density given T ≥ x. The general model in the case of constant interest is as follows. we study next the Theory of Interest. The formula will be diﬀerent in two ways: ﬁrst. Compounding at timeintervals h = 1/m . Similarly.3)
1.2
Theory of Interest
Since payments based upon unpredictable occurrences or contingencies for insured lives can occur at diﬀerent times. with associated weightedaverage interpretation: E(g(T ) T ≥ x) = 1 S(x)
∞ x
g(t) f (t) dt
(1. means that a unit amount accumulates to (1 + i(m) /m) after a time h = 1/m. the density f (t) must be replaced by f (t)/S(x). a unit amount accumulates to (1 + i(m) /m)n = (1 + i(m) /m)T m after the time T = nh which is a multiple of n whole units of h. which is concerned with valuing streams of payments made over time. THEORY OF INTEREST
7
expected value of g(T ) given that T ≥ x. to (1+i(m) /m)·(1+i(m) /m) = (1+i(m) /m)2 . In the
. P (t ≤ T ≤ t + ∆ T ≥ x) = P ( [t ≤ T ≤ t + ∆] ∩ [T ≥ x]) P (T ≥ x)
=
Thus the density which can be used to calculate conditional probabilities P (a ≤ T ≤ b T ≥ x) for x < a < b is
∆→0
P (t ≤ T ≤ t + ∆) S(t) − S(t + ∆) = P (T ≥ x) S(x)
lim
1 S (t) f (t) S(t) − S(t + ∆) P (t ≤ T ≤ t+∆ T ≥ x) = lim = − = ∆→0 ∆ S(x) ∆ S(x) S(x)
The result of all of this discussion of conditional expected values is the formula. for t ≥ x. with nominal interest rate i(m) . because of the resitriction to individuals in the lifetable who have survived to exact age x. The principal or account value 1+i(m) /m at time 1/m accumulates over the timeinterval from 1/m until 2/m. From the deﬁnition of conditional probability. by induction. which is found as follows.1. the range of integration is from x to ∞. second.
All the nominal interest rates i(m) for diﬀerent periods of compounding are related by the formulas (1 + i(m) /m)m = 1 + i = 1 + iAPR . the ﬁrst and third expressions of the displayed equation also make perfect sense when the duration T is any positive real number. respectively as iAPR = 1+ i(m) m
m
−1
or
eδ − 1
The amount to which a unit invested at time 0 accumulates at the eﬀective interest rate iAPR over a timeduration T (still assumed to be a multiple of 1/m) is therefore 1 + iAPR
T
=
1+
i(m) m
mT
= eδ T
This amount is called the accumulation factor operating over the interval of duration T at the ﬁxed interest rate.. m → ∞ ).e.e. with repayment of the principal of $1 at the end of the year. i. i(m) = m (1 + i)1/m − 1 (1. interest can be said to be governed by the discount rates for various compounding periods. then the amount d(m) /m is the correct amount to be repaid at the beginning rather than the end of each fraction 1/m of the year. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
limit of continuous compounding (i. and multiplied by 100 if it is to be expressed as a percentage) to which a unit compounds after a single year.8
CHAPTER 1..5)
The idea of discount rates is that if $1 is loaned out at interest. where the instantaneous annualized nominal interest rate δ = limm i(m) (also called the force of interest) will be shown to exist. In either case of compounding.4)
Similarly. in order to amount to the same
. deﬁned by 1 − d(m) /m = (1 + i(m) /m)−1 Solving the last equation for d(m) gives d(m) = i(m) /(1 + i(m) /m) (1. the unit amount compounds to eδ T after time T . Moreover. the actual Annual Percentage Rate or APR or eﬀective interest rate is deﬁned as the amount (minus 1. not necessarily a multiple of 1/m.
if interest is to be paid at the beginning of the period of the loan instead of the end. 2/m. . Similarly. note that since interest d is paid at the same instant as receiving the loan of $ 1 . if that lender could alternatively have earned interest rate i. then the single payment at time 1 which fully compensates the lender. To see that this is correct. 1 plus the payment of $ 1 at time 1. the net amount actually received is 1 − d = (1 + i)−1 . THEORY OF INTEREST
9
eﬀective interest rate. If $ 1 is to be borrowed at time 0. m = 1. then the interest payments should be d(m) /m.2. . . and so forth. The reason is that. an interest payment of $ i(m) /m at time 1/m leaves an amount $ 1 still owed. . This follows because the amount eﬀectively borrowed
. with the only other payment a repayment of principal at time 1. (j + 1)/m] for j = 0. . m − 1. then the repayment at time 1/m takes the form of $ 1 principal and $ i(m) /m interest. which is deemed borrowed until time 3/m. with a ﬁnal principal repayment of $ 1 at time 1. In exactly the same way. . Then a payment of $ i(m) /m at time 2/m still leaves an amount $ 1 owed at 2/m. Similarly.1. is $ (1 + i). Thus. To deﬁne these terms and justify this assertion. The quantities i(m) . the interest paid at time 0 for a loan of $ 1 would be d = i/(1 + i). . The overall result which we have just proved intuitively is: $ 1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of $ i(m) /m at times 1/m. the amount 1 − d(m) /m accumulates at nominal interest i(m) (compounded m times yearly) to (1 − d(m) /m) · (1 + i(m) /m) = 1 after a timeperiod of 1/m. 1] is paid oﬀ at time 1 with a ﬁnal interest payment of $ i(m) /m together with the principal repayment of $ 1. if $ 1 is borrowed at time 0 for a timeperiod 1/m. if interest payments are to be made at the beginnings of each of the intervals (j/m. until the loan of $ 1 on the ﬁnal timeinterval ((m − 1)/m. consider ﬁrst the simplest case. according to the deﬁnition. 1. which we view as a payment of $ 1 principal (the face amount of the loan) and $ i interest. which can be viewed as an amount borrowed on the timeinterval (1/m. if $ 1 was borrowed at time 0. which accumulates in value to (1 − d)(1 + i) = $ 1 at time 1. . d(m) are naturally introduced as the interest payments which must be made respectively at the ends and the beginnings of successive timeperiods 1/m in order that the principal owed at each time j/m on an amount $ 1 borrowed at time 0 will always be $ 1. 2/m].
The net result is $ 1 at time 0 is equivalent to the stream of m payments of $ d(m) /m at times 0. with instantaneous compounding. (k + 1)h) of length h = 1/m. A useful algebraic exercise to conﬁrm the displayed assertions is: Exercise. . 1/m. So throughout the yearlong life of the loan. Here. 2/m. but known or observed. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
(after the immediate interest payment) over each interval (j/m. Verify that the present values at time 0 of the payment streams with m interest payments in the displayed assertions are respectively
m
j=1
i(m) (1 + i)−j/m + (1 + i)−1 m
m−1
and
j=0
d(m) (1 + i)−j/m + (1 + i)−1 m
and that both are equal to 1. nominal interest rates δ(t). (m − 1)/m plus the payment of $ 1 at time 1. for which the oldfashioned name would be timevarying force of interest. to ﬁnd a number rm (kh) such that
1/m rm (kh) δ(kh) = eδ(kh) = exp m m In the limit of large m. These identities are valid for all i > 0. .e. which accumulates in value over the interval of length 1/m to an amount (1 − d(m) /m)(1 + i(m) /m) = 1. the unit principal amount accumulates to
1+
m→ ∞
lim eδ(b)/m eδ(b+h)/m · · · eδ(b+[mt]h)/m
. . so that over the interval [b. (j + 1)/m] is $ (1 − d(m) /m). one would ﬁrst use the instantaneous continuouslycompounding interestrate δ(kh) available at the beginning of the interval to calculate an equivalent annualized nominal interestrate over the interval. b + t).2. there is an essentially constant principal amount over each interval of length 1/m. if there is a compoundinginterval [kh.
1.10
CHAPTER 1.. .1
Variable Interest Rates
Now we formulate the generalization of these ideas to the case of nonconstant instantaneously varying. the principal owed at (or just before) each time (j + 1)/m is exactly $ 1. i.
THEORY OF INTEREST 1 = exp lim m m
[mt]−1
11
t
k=0
The last step in this chain of equalities relates the concept of continuous compounding to that of the Riemann integral. . B0 = s0 m The preceding diﬀerence equation can be solved in terms of successive summation and product operations acting on the sequences sj and δ(jh). . nominal rates rm (jh) for compounding at multiples of h = 1/m) applying respectively over the whole compoundingintervals [jh. which together with its solution is given by Ak+1 rm (kh) . To specify continuoustime varying interest rates in terms of eﬀective or APR rates. namely the idea of equivalent investments leading to the deﬁnition of present value of an income stream/investment. . (k + 1)h). . s1 .2. as follows.
Ak =
j=0
1+
rm (jh) m
The next idea is the second basic one in the theory of interest. then how can the accumulated bank balance be expressed in terms of sj and δ(jh) ? Clearly i(m) (kh) Bk+1 = Bk · 1 + + sk+1 .1. . nh. . where h = 1/m is the given compoundingperiod. . sk . . δ(t) = ln 1 + rAPR (t)
δ(b + k/m) = exp
δ(b + s) ds
0
Next consider the case of deposits s0 . . Then by deﬁnition. If the accumulated bank balance just after time kh is denoted by Bk . . . . . k − 1. j = 0. Suppose that a stream of deposits sj accruing
. . . . Ak satisﬁes a homogeneous equation analogous to the previous one. . and where nominal annualized instantaneous interestrates δ(kh) (with compoundingperiod h) apply to the accrual of interest on the interval [kh. (j + 1)h). sn made at times 0. would require the simple conversion rAPR (t) = eδ(t) − 1 . = Ak · 1 + m
k−1
A0 = 1. h. . . instead of the instantaneous nominal rates δ(t) . First deﬁne a function Ak to denote the accumulated bank balance at time kh for a unit invested at time 0 and earning interest with instantaneous nominal interest rates δ(jh) (or equivalently. . kh.
j = 0. Since (1 + i)t is the factor by which today’s deposit increases in exactly t years. . (j + 1)h) for j = 0. Thus the present value of 1 at time T = nh is 1/An . k. In other words. Ai
B k = A k · Gk . the present value of a payment of $1 delayed t years is (1 + i)−t . 1. and in particular 1/An at time 0 accumulates to 1 at time T . n is such that a single deposit D at time 0 would accumulate by compound interest to give exactly the same ﬁnal balance Fn at time T = nh. . G 0 = s0
Thus Gk+1 − Gk = sk+1 /Ak+1 . Now deﬁne Gk to be the present value of the stream of payments sj at time jh for j = 0. and
k
Gk+1 = s0 +
i=0
si+1 = Ai+1
k+1
j=0
sj Aj
In summary. . Then the present cash amount D in hand is said to be equivalent to the value of a contract to receive sj at time jh. and since the present value at 0 of an amount Bk at time kh is just Bk /Ak . we have simultaneously found the solution for the accumulated balance Bk just after time kh and for the present value Gk at time 0 :
k
Gk =
i=0
si . BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
interest with annualized nominal rates rm (jh) with respect to compoundingperiods [jh. . . We have just calculated that an amount 1 at time 0 compounds to an accumulated amount An at time T = nh. . Ak+1 Ak (1 + rm (kh)/m) Ak+1 k≥1. . . we conclude Gk+1 = Bk+1 sk+1 Bk (1 + rm (kh)/m) + = . Since Bk was the accumulated value just after time kh of the same stream of payments. . Here t may be an integer or positive real number. 1. an amount a at time 0 accumulates to a · An at time T . the present value of the contract is precisely D. .
. n
The intuitive interpretation of the formulas just derived relies on the following simple observations and reasoning: (a) The present value at ﬁxed interest rate i of a payment of $1 exactly t years in the future. must be equal to the amount which must be put in the bank at time 0 to accumulate at interest to an amount 1 exactly t years later.
k = 0. n. . . . . . Therefore.12
CHAPTER 1. .
The idea of present value is that these three payments. we ﬁnd that the present value of a payment of $1 at time t (assumed to be an integer multiple of h). t + s]. (c) As a consequence of (a) and (b). . to combine present values on distinct time intervals. a at time s + t. then the present value at time s of a future payment of a at time t + s is b = a(1 + i )−t . j = 0. n must be the summation
n
sj (1 + i)−tj
j=0
(d) Finally. the present value for constant interest rate i at time 0 of a payment stream consisting of payments sj at future times tj . is
mt
1/A(t) =
j=1
(1 + r(jh))−h
where A(t) = Ak is the amount previously derived as the accumulationfactor for the timeinterval [0. . . and the present value at time 0 of a payment b at time s is b (1 + i)−s . where r(kh) is the applicable eﬀective interest rate on timeinterval [kh. then the present value of C is simply the sum of the present value of payment stream A and the present value of payment stream B. and b(1 + i)−s = a (1 + i )−t (1 + i)−s at time 0 . THEORY OF INTEREST
13
(b) Present values superpose additively: that is. s] and the ﬁxed interest rate i applies to the timeinterval [s. k = 0.2. . .1. (k + 1)h]. . T ] of a unit investment which pays amount sk at times tk . . This constant (eﬀective) interest rate r is the one such that
n
sk 1 + r
k=0
−tk
=1
. if I am to receive a payment stream C which is the sum of payment streams A and B. (e) Applying the idea of paragraph (d) repeatedly over successive intervals of length h = 1/m each. . are all equivalent. n. at possibly diﬀerent interest rates. The formulas just developed can be used to give the internal rate of return r over the timeinterval [0. remark that if ﬁxed interestrate i applies to the timeinterval [0. 0 ≤ tk ≤ T . t]. b = a(1 + i )−t at time s.
035 through 0. (We can guess that the correct answer lies between the minimum and maximum payments expressed as a fraction of the principal. or internal rate of return. Nevertheless. in terms of the notation x = (1 + r)−5 . since both x = (1+r)−5 and r involve the unknown r. 000 returned to you (if all goes well) exactly 10 years from the date of the investment (at the same time as the last of the $ 800 payments.14
CHAPTER 1. If the investment goes as planned. 000 does not lead to a closedform solution. . suppose that you are oﬀered an investment option under which a $ 10. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
With respect to the APR r . (k = 0.) The balance equation in the Example is obviously
5 10
10. to an immediate (time0) payment of 1. must be balanced with the value (here $ 10. to 300 1+r 1−x 1 − (1 + r)−1 = + 800x (1 + r) 1−x 1 − (1 + r)−1 + 10000 x2
1−x (300 + 800x) + 10000x2 (1. 000 = 300
j=1
(1 + r)
−j
+ 800
j=6
(1 + r)−j + 10. . (That is because the indicated payment stream is being regarded as equivalent to bank interest at rate r. 000) which is invested. Therefore the stream of payments sk at times tk . and then $ 800 yearly for the following ﬁve years. at the unknown interest rate r = iAP R . n) becomes equivalent. 000 investment made now is expected to pay $ 300 yearly for 5 years (beginning 1 year from the date of the investment). the present value of a payment sk at a time tk timeunits in the future is sk · (1 + r)−tk . we can solve the equation roughly by ‘tabulating’ the values of the simpliﬁed righthand side as a function of r ranging in increments of 0. . what is the eﬀective interest rate you will be earning on your investment ? As in all calculations of eﬀective interest rate. . with the principal of $ 10.) This tabulation yields:
.005 from 0. Example 1 As an illustration of the notion of eﬀective interest rate. the present value of the paymentstream. 000 (1 + r)−10
The righthand side can be simpliﬁed somewhat. 1.6) r Setting this simpliﬁed expression equal to the lefthand side of 10.075. for the uniquely deﬁned interest rate r.
2.1. where [·] again denotes greatestinteger. yields a diﬀerential equation at times t > 0 : B (t) = B(t) δ(t) + D(t) .050 + 0.2. again has a natural interpretation in terms of present values. when t = k/m). 000 for a value of r falling between 0.060 (1. Subtracting B(t) from both sides of the last equation. and B(t) to be the accumulated balance as of time t (analogous to the quantity B[mt] = Bk from before. Suppose D(t) to be the rate per unit time at which savings deposits are made. we replace the previous diﬀerenceequation by B(t + h) = B(t) (1 + h δ(t)) + h D(t) + o(h) where o(h) denotes a remainder such that o(h)/h → 0 as h → 0. A(0) = s0 (1. so that if we take m to go to ∞ in the previous discussion.05186. THEORY OF INTEREST r . we have D(t) = limm→ ∞ ms[mt] .035 .055 .6) 11485 11018 10574 10152 9749 9366 .2
Continuoustime Payment Streams
There is a completely analogous development for continuoustime deposit streams with continuous compounding.070 8562
15 . The integrating factor t 1/A(t) = exp(− 0 δ(s) ds) is the present value at time 0 of a payment of 1 at time t.
1.005 ∗ (10000 − 10152)/(9749 − 10152) = 0.045 .05 and 0. The ratiorule of diﬀerentiation yields G (t) = B(t) A (t) B (t) − B(t) δ(t) D(t) B (t) − = = 2 (t) A(t) A A(t) A(t)
.7)
The method of solution of (1.055. Taking δ(t) to be the timevarying nominal interest rate with continuous compounding. we can see that the righthand side is equal to $ 10.075 8320
From these values. which is the standard one from diﬀerential equations theory of multiplying through by an integrating factor . Interpolating linearly to approximate the answer yields r = 0. and the quantity B(t)/A(t) = G(t) is then the present value of the deposit stream of s0 at time 0 followed by continuous deposits at rate D(t). while an accurate equationsolver (the one in the Splus function uniroot) ﬁnds r = 0.040 . and letting h decrease to 0.065 9000 .7).05189.050 . dividing by h.
By the preceding formulas. the solution to the diﬀerential equation (1. 0 ≤ x ≤ T ) with no initial deposit (i. i(m) 1+ m
−mT
= (1 + i)−T = exp(−δ T )
1. δ(x) = δ = ln(1 + i).3
Exercise Set 1
The ﬁrst homework set covers the basic deﬁnitions in two areas: (i) probability as it relates to events deﬁned from cohort lifetables. distribution.7) becomes
t
G(t) = s0 +
0
D(s) ds . A(t) = exp(t ln(1 + i)) = (1 + i)t . with special reference to the idea of income streams of equal value at a ﬁxed rate of interest.16
CHAPTER 1. and density functions and the deﬁnition of expectation. (1). Since G(0) = B(0) = s0 .e. (ii) the theory of interest and present values. s0 = 0).. the formula can be specialized to the case of a constant unitrate payment stream ( D(x) = 1. as expected. and the present value of such a payment stream is T 1 1 · exp(−t ln(1 + i)) dt = 1 − (1 + i)−T δ 0 Recall that the force of interest δ = ln(1 + i) is the limiting value obtained from the nominal interest rate i(m) using the diﬀerencequotient representation: exp((1/m) ln(1 + i)) − 1 = ln(1 + i) lim i(m) = lim m→∞ m→∞ 1/m The present value of a payment at time T in the future is. For how long a time should $100 be left to accumulate at 5% interest so that it will amount to twice the accumulated value (over the same time period) of another $100 deposited at 3% ?
. including the theoretical machinery of population and conditional survival. A(s)
B(t) = A(t) G(t)
Finally. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
where the substitutuion A (t)/A(t) ≡ δ(t) has been made in the third expression.
S(x) denotes the probability for a newborn in a designated population to survive to exact age x . (c) that a life aged 25 will die either before age 50 or after the 70’th
. (b) that a life aged 22 will die between ages 45 and 55. The interest was compounded twice a year. or interpolate a tabulation. (a) Find the probability that a life aged 0 will die between exact ages 19 and 36.) Find the probability (a) that a life aged 26 will live at least 30 more years. EXERCISE SET 1 (2).3. (b) Find the expected age at death of a life aged 20 in the population of problem (3). (3).) (b) $100 deposited 20 years ago has grown at interest to $235. (4).1. to ﬁnd it. (In each case.1(100 − x)1/2 . (5). What were the nominal and eﬀective interest rates ? (c) How much should be set aside (the same amount each year) at the beginning of each year for 10 years to amount to $1000 at the end of the 10th year at the interest rate of part (b) ? In the following problems.000 the right to receive for 10 years the amount of $1. (a) Find the expected age at death of a member of the population in problem (3). If a cohort life table is under discussion. then the probability distribution relates to a randomly chosen member of the newborn cohort. (b) Find the probability that a life aged 36 will die before exact age 51. Use the Illustrative Lifetable (Table 1. What eﬀective rate of interest makes this a fair sale price ? (You will have to solve numerically or graphically.1) to calculate the following probabilities.000 per year payable quarterly (beginning at the end of the ﬁrst quarter). assume that the indicated span of years runs from birthday to birthday. Use a calculator to answer the following numerically:
17
(a) Suppose you sell for $6. for 0 ≤ x ≤ 100. Assume that a population’s survival probability function is given by S(x) = 0.
07 i = 0. (7). you must make a payment of accrued interest at the end of 3 years.10
Example 2. (ii) The probability that a life aged 25 will survive 10 years is 0.
. respectively aged 25 and 45.18 birthday. 3. you are given the following facts: (i) The probability that two independent lives. Suppose that a sum of $1000 is borrowed for 5 years at 5%.9. (8). What is the eﬀective interest rate you have earned (ignoring interest costs) over 5 years on the $1000 which you borrowed ? Taking interest costs into account. with numerical answer given by 22.24 for t = 11.52 for 16.7. and that after holding the money idle for 1 year you invested the money to earn 8% APR for the remaining four years. In a certain population.
1.4
Worked Examples
Example 1.53 for so the answer is ln(3)/ ln(1 + i). with interest deducted immediately in a lump sum from the amount borrowed. 8. Suppose that you borrowed $1000 at 6% APR. 7. with the additional interest and principal due in a single lumpsum at the end of 5 years. both survive 20 years is 0. and 10 years. and 9 years and payments of $2 at the end of 2. 5. Find the total present value at 5% APR of payments of $1 at the end of 1. BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
(6).
CHAPTER 1. How many years does it take for money to triple in value at interest rate i ? The equation to solve is 3 = (1 + i)t . 4. to be repaid in 5 years in a lump sum. Then ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 35 will survive to age 65.05 i = 0. i = 0. 6. what is the present value of your proﬁt over the 5 years of the loan ? Also redo the problem if instead of repaying all principal and interest at the end of 5 years.
The random variable T is the lifelength for a randomly selected individual from the age=0 cohort.78353 0.07)5 = 1098.61538 0 0. The present value of the proﬁt ought to be calculated with respect to the ‘going rate of interest’.15) + 4 · (0.15 0. . so the net proﬁt at the end of 5 years. Next. 4.94/(1. The conditional probabilities given survivorship to agecategory 2 are simply the ratios with numerator dx for x ≥ 2 .20 0. the compounded value of 783. and ﬁnd the expectation of both [T ] and (1. both unconditionally and conditionally for lives aged 2. WORKED EXAMPLES
19
and principal due in a lump sum at the end of the 5 years. .05)5 = 77. and therefore P ([T ] = x) = P (x ≤ T < x + 1) = dx /l0 .4. For the following small cohort lifetable (ﬁrst 3 columns) with 5 agecategories.05. Then dx = lx − lx+1 for x = 0.40) = 2. the amount received is 1000 (1 − d)5 = 1000/(1.74622
In terms of the columns of this table.94.15385 0.2) E([T ]) = 0 · (0.82770 0. ﬁnd the probabilities for all values of [T ].05)−[T ]−1 . after paying oﬀ the principal of 1000. .23077 0. we evaluate from the deﬁnitions and formula (1. Suppose further that the amount received is invested and earns 7%.53. x 0 1 2 3 4 5 lx 100 80 65 55 40 0 dx 20 15 10 15 40 0 P ([T ] = x) 0.90703 0. is $98. and with denominator l2 = 65. What is the value of the net proﬁt at the end of the 5 years ? What is its present value (at 5%) as of time 0 ? First.94.20) + 1 · (0.40 0 P ([T ] = xT ≥ 2) 1. where d = .52.95238 0.53 (1.86384 0. .05/1. 1.10 0.15 0.53 for 5 years at 7% is 783.05−x−1 0 0 0. so is 98. Example 3.05)5 = 783.4
.1. The basic information in the table is the ﬁrst column lx of numbers surviving. which in this problem is presumably the rate of 5% at which the money is borrowed.10) + 3 · (0.15) + 2 · (0. since the amount received should compound to precisely the principal of $1000 at 5% interest in 5 years.
Example 4. . Suppose that the deathrates qx = dx /lx for integer ages x in a cohort lifetable follow the functional form qx = 4 · 10−4 for 5 ≤ x < 30 8 · 10−4 for 30 ≤ x ≤ 55
between the ages x of 5 and 55 inclusive. S(5) lx = 96000 · (0.8497
The expectation of [T ] is interpreted as the average per person in the cohort lifetable of the number of completed whole years before death. lx .90703 · 0.8277 · 0.23077) + 4 · (0. S(x) = (1 − . Find analytical expressions for S(x).9992)x−30 = .78353 · 0. if the going rate of interest is 5%.
. . and the ﬁnal expectation calculated above is the average of that presentvalue over all the individuals in the cohort lifetable. .40 = 0. .9996)x−5
or
so that S(30) = .15 + 0.20 + 0.86384 · 0.0004)x−5 . BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST E([T ]  T ≥ 2) = 2 · (0. qx The key formula expressing survival probabilities in terms of deathrates is: S(x + 1) lx+1 = = 1 − qx S(x) lx lx = l0 · S(x) = (1 − q0 )(1 − q1 ) · · · (1 − qx−1 ) So it follows that for x = 5. S(x) = S(30) · (.20
CHAPTER 1.15 + 0. .10 + + 0. .96.940446 (.05−[T ]−1 ) = 0. S(5) = . . dx at these ages if l0 = 105 .4615 E(1.95238 · 0.9992)x−30 The deathcounts dx are expressed most simply through the preceding expressions together with the formula dx = qx lx . .05)−[T ]−1 can be interpreted as the present value at birth of a payment of $1 to be made at the end of the year of death. 55.61538) = 3. 30. The quantity (1.15385) + 3 · (0.940446. and for x = 31.
1 S(x) − S(x + k) lx − lx+k = S(x) lx p. 7
1 + iAPR =
i(m) 1+ m
m
=
d(m) 1− m
−m
= eδ p. 2
x+t
P (x ≤ T ≤ x + k) =
f (x) = −S (x) . 4. 8
.
S(x) − S(x + k) =
f (t) dt
x
pp.1.5
Useful Formulas from Chapter 1
S(x) = lx l0 . 5 1 = S(x)
∞ x
E g(T ) T ≥ x
g(t) f (t) dt p. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 1
21
1. dx = lx − lx+1 p.5.
BASICS OF PROBABILITY & INTEREST
.22
CHAPTER 1.
nonprobabilistic) theory of interest.1
More on Theory of Interest
The objective of this subsection is to deﬁne notations and to ﬁnd compact formulas for present values of some standard payment streams.Chapter 2 Theory of Interest and Force of Mortality
The parallel development of Interest and Probability Theory topics continues in this Chapter. There are two primary methods of manipulating one paymentstream to give another for the convenient calculation of present 23
. and (b) more discussion of lifetime random variables. This installment of the course covers: (a) further formulas and topics in the pure (i. The interest theory allows us to express the present values of certain payment streams compactly. and theoretical families of life distributions.
2. To this end. For application in Insurance. we are preparing to value uncertain payment streams in which times of payment may also be uncertain.. in particular of force of mortality or hazardrates. while the probability material prepares us to ﬁnd and interpret average or expected values of present values expressed as functions of random lifetime variables.e. newly deﬁned payment streams are systematically expressed in terms of previously considered ones.
(i) If s0 = 0 and s1 = · · · = snm = 1/m in the discrete setting. if one paymentstream can be obtained from a second one precisely by delaying all payments by the same amount t of time. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
• First. and its present value Gn (m) is given the notation an and is equal. to
nm
m−1
j=1
1+
i(m) m
−j
=
1 − (1 + i(m) /m)−nm 1 i(m) = (m) 1 − 1 + m(1 + i(m) /m − 1) i m
−nm
. from now on the standard and convenient notation m i(m) v ≡ 1/(1 + i) = 1 / 1 + m will be used for the present value of a payment of $1 in one year. For another simple illustration. The following subsection contains several useful applications of these methods. i. then the present value of the ﬁrst one is v t multiplied by the present value of the second. if one paymentstream can be obtained as the superposition of two other payment streams. and some very particular streams of payments sj at times tj . can be obtained by paying the total amounts at times indicated by either of the latter two streams. where m denotes the number of payments per year. then the paymentstream is called an immediate annuity. • Second.. The eﬀective interest rate or APR is always denoted by i. related to periodic premium and annuity payments.1
Annuities & Actuarial Notation
The general present value formulas above will now be specialized to the case of constant (instantaneous) interest rate δ(t) ≡ ln(1 + i) = δ at all times t ≥ 0.1. see Worked Example 2 at the end of the Chapter. and as before the mtimesperyear equivalent nominal interest rate is denoted by i(m) .
2. Also.24 values:
CHAPTER 2. then the present value of the ﬁrst stream is the sum of the present values of the other two. by the geometricseries summation formula.e. and tj = j/m.
the remaining stream coincides with the annuityimmediate stream consisting of nm − 1 (instead of nm) payments of 1/m. an = lim an ¨
m→∞ (m)
= lim an
m→∞
(m)
=
1 − vn δ
(2.4) that i(m) = m{(1 + i)1/m − 1}. Then by (2.2)
The ﬁrst of these formulas recognizes the annuitydue paymentstream as identical to the annuityimmediate paymentstream shifted earlier by the time 1/m and therefore worth more by the accumulationfactor (1+i)1/m = 1 + i(m) /m. The limiting behavior of the nominal interest rate can be seen rapidly from the formula i(m) = m (1 + i)1/m − 1 = δ · exp(δ/m) − 1 δ/m
since (ez − 1)/z converges to 1 as z → 0. the notation an denotes the present value of an annuity paid instantaneously at constant unit rate. then the notation changes to an . n but varying m. as shown in Table 2.1) shows that all of the values an diﬀer only through the factors i(m) . which diﬀer by only a few percent for varying m and ﬁxed i. Recall from formula (1.1. (m) Formula (2.1)
All of these immediate annuity values. In the limit as m → ∞ for ﬁxed n.2. for ﬁxed v. ¨ the paymentstream is called an annuitydue. with the limiting nominal interestrate which was shown at the end of the previous chapter to be limm i(m) = i(∞) = δ. and the value is given by any of the equivalent formulas an ¨
(m) (m)
= (1 +
i(m) (m) 1 − vn 1 (m) (m) ) an = + an = + an−1/m m m m
(2. are roughly comparable because all involve a total payment of 1 per year.2). The ﬁnal expression says that if the time0 payment is removed from the annuitydue. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST This calculation has shown an
(m)
25
1 − vn = i(m)
(2. If instead s0 = 1/m but snm = 0.3)
.2) represents the annuitydue stream as being equal to the annuityimmediate stream with the payment of 1/m at t = 0 added and the payment of 1/m at t = n removed. The third expression in (2.1) and (2.1.
and the annuities are called perpetuities (respectively immediate and ¨ due) with presentvalue formulas obtained from (2.0965 .142 .0197 .0494 .15 .1) and (2.1).2) and (2.137 . INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Table 2.0198 .0294 .10 .145 .0485 . In the limit where n → ∞.0938 .
a∞ ¨
(m)
=
1 d(m)
(2.4) as: a∞
(m)
=
1 i(m)
.0680 .0688 .0198 . an ¨
(m)
= (1 − v n ) ·
1 − vn 1 + i(m) /m = i(m) d(m)
(2.
i= m=2 3 4 6 12 .02 .0489 .143 .0678 .5)
Let us now build some more general annuityrelated present values out of (m) (m) the standard functions an and an .0671 .0931 .0942 .0968 .0297 .1: Values of nominal interest rates i(m) (upper number) and d(m) (lower number).0684 .0198 .0199 .135 .0484 .0946 . for various choices of eﬀective annual interest rate i and number m of compounding periods per year.0976 .0486 .0675 .0199 . ¨
.0198 . the superscript (m) is omitted from all of the annuity (m) notations.4)
In case m is 1.0949 .26
CHAPTER 2.0295 .0296 . the notations become a∞ and (m) a∞ .0487 .141 .137 .141 .0665 .0293 .0669 .0298 .0197 .0673 .139
A handy formula for annuitydue present values follows easily by recalling that 1− d(m) = m 1+ i(m) m
−1
implies
d(m) =
i(m) 1 + i(m) /m
Then.0295 .0961 .0297 .0491 .0296 .05 .0490 .0198 .07 .0199 .0957 .138 .0294 .03 . by (2.0482 .0682 .0492 .
1/m. 2/m. forever. (I (m) a)∞ = m−2 ¨
(m)
i(m) /m 1 + i(m) /m
−2
=
1 d(m)
2
=
a∞ ¨
(m)
2
and (2. . the ﬁrst purely mathematical. with x = (1 + i(m) /m)−1 and 1 − x = (i(m) /m)/(1 + i(m) /m). Another way to reach the same result is to recognize the increasing perpetual annuitydue as 1/m multiplied by (m) the superposition of perpetuitiesdue a∞ paid at times 0. . First. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST
27
(ii). etc. Clearly the present value is (I (m) a)∞ ¨
(m)
=
∞ k=0
m−2 (k + 1) 1 +
i(m) m
−k
Here are two methods to sum this series. . which is deﬁned as the present value of a stream of ¨ payments (k + 1)/m2 at times k/m.
∞ k=0
d (k + 1) x = dx
k
∞ k=0
xk+1 =
d x = (1 − x)−2 dx 1 − x
for 0 < x < 1. (iii). of which 1/m comes from the annuitydue starting at time 0. Putting together all of these payment streams gives a total of (k +1)/m paid at time k/m. . the second with actuarial intuition. As an aid in recognizing ¨ (m) this equivalence. Consider ﬁrst the case of the increasing perpetual annuitydue. up to the payment of 1/m from the annuitydue starting at time k/m.1.5) has been used in the last step. The increasing perpetual annuityimmediate (I (m) a)∞ — the same payment stream as in the increasing annuitydue. without worrying about the strict justiﬁcation for diﬀerentiating an inﬁnite series termbyterm. (m) denoted (I (m) a)∞ . Therefore. consider each annuitydue a∞ paid at a time j/m as ¨ being equivalent to a stream of payments 1/m at time j/m. . 1/m from the annuitydue starting at time 1/m. for k = 0. but deferred by a time 1/m — is related to the perpetual annuitydue in the obvious way (I (m) a)∞
(m) (m)
= v 1/m (I (m) a)∞ ¨
(m)
= (I (m) a)∞ ¨
(m)
(1 + i(m) /m) =
1 i(m) d(m)
.2. . where the geometricseries formula has been used to sum the second expression. 1/m at (j + 1)/m. . ¨ (m) (m) ¨ and therefore its present value must be a∞ · a∞ . 1.
28
CHAPTER 2. for j = 0. this payment(m) stream is equivalent to (I (m) a)∞ minus the sum of n multiplied by an ¨ (m) annuitydue a∞ starting at time n together with an increasing annuity¨ (m) due (I (m) a)∞ starting at time n. . As an exercise.) Thus (I (m) a)n ¨
(m)
= (I (m) a)∞ ¨ = a∞ ¨ = a∞ ¨
(m)
(m) (m) (m)
1 − (1 + i(m) /m)−nm − n¨∞ (1 + i(m) /m)−nm a
(m)
(m)
¨ a∞ − (1 + i(m) /m)−nm a∞ + n ¨ an ¨ − n vn
(m)
where in the last line recall that v = (1 + i)−1 = (1 + i(m) /m)−m and (m) (m) that an ¨ = a∞ (1 − v n ). the payment amount at each of the times j/m. (To see this clearly.4) and (2. . The latter identity is easy to justify either ¨ by the formulas (2. The easiest way to obtain the present value is through the identity (I (m) a)n ¨
(m) (m)
+ (D(m) a)n ¨
(m)
= (n +
1 (m) )a ¨ m n
Again. nm − 1. This is the present value (I (m) a)n ¨ of the paymentstream of 2 (k + 1)/m at time k/m. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(iv).5) or by regarding the annuitydue payment stream as a superposition of the paymentstream up to time n − 1/m and the paymentstream starting at time n. equate the payments ¨ 1 0 = (k + 1)/m2 − n · m − (k − nm + 1)/m2 received at times k/m for k ≥ nm. nm − 1. intuitive veriﬁcation. . with no further payments at or after time n. Evidently. ¨ is deﬁned as (the present (v). . as usual. . is j+1 n j 1 1 + ( − 2) = (n + ) 2 m m m m m
. The decreasing annuity (D (m) a)n value of) a stream of payments starting with n/m at time 0 and decreasing by 1/m2 every timeperiod of 1/m. . . for k = 0. Now consider the increasing annuitydue of ﬁnite duration (m) n years. 1. analogous to the second veriﬁcation in pargraph (ii) above. ﬁll in details of a second. . the method of proving this is to observe that in the paymentstream whose present value is given on the lefthand side.
valued just after time k/m. Recall that the present value of a payment stream of amount c (m) per year. k/m of outstanding debt just after k/m. how much can be attributed to interest and how much to principal ? Consider the present value at 0 of the debt per unit of LoanAmt less accumulated amounts paid up to and including time k/m : 1 − m ak/m
(m)
1 m an
(m)
= 1−
v k/m − v n 1 − v k/m = 1 − vn 1 − vn
The remaining debt.2
Loan Amortization & Mortgage Reﬁnancing
The only remaining theoryofinterest topic to cover in this unit is the breakdown between principal and interest payments in repaying a loan such as a mortgage. per unit of LoanAmt. is c an . Therefore the interest included in the payment at (k + 1)/m is i(m) /m multiplied by the value Bn. 2/m.1. if an amount LoanAmt has been borrowed for a term of n years. with c/m paid at times 1/m. then the installment amount is Mortgage Payment = LoanAmt m an
(m)
= LoanAmt
i(m) m (1 − v n )
where v = 1/(1 + i) = (1 + i(m) /m)−m . n/m. so is equal to Bn. to be repaid by equal installments at the end of every period 1/m .2. . at ﬁxed nominal interest rate i(m) .1. Thus the next total payment of i(m) /(m(1 − v n )) consists of the two parts Amount of interest = m−1 i(m) (1 − v n−k/m )/(1 − v n ) Amount of principal = m−1 i(m) v n−k/m /(1 − v n ) By deﬁnition. It is greater than the displayed present value at 0 by a factor (1 + i)k/m . Of the payment made at time (k + 1)/m. k/m . . Thus. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST
29
2. k/m = (1 + i)k/m v k/m − v n 1 − v n−k/m = 1 − vn 1 − vn (2. .6)
The amount of interest for a Loan Amount of 1 after time 1/m is (1 + i)1/m − 1 = i(m) /m. the principal included in each payment is the amount of the payment minus the interest included in it. n − 1/m. These formulas show in particular
. is denoted from now on by Bn. .
nominalrate 8%.(k+1)/m immediately after time (k + 1)/m is recomputed as Bn. 000 − 51. The monthly payment amount of the initial loan in this example was $100. Thus the present value. 000(. if the loan were to be reﬁnanced. of the payments still to be made under the old mortgage. and the present value as of time 0 (the beginning of the old loan) of the payments made through the (12) end of the 8th year is ($733.3
Illustration on Mortgage Reﬁnancing
Suppose that a 30–year.69)(1 + .69.08/12)96 = $91. or i(m) v n−k/m 1 − v n−k/m (1 + i(m) /m) 1 − v n−k/m − = 1 − vn m 1 − vn 1 − vn 1 − v n−(k+1)/m = = 1 − vn 1− a(k+1)/m an
(m) (m)
v −(k+1)/m
(2.7)
as was derived above by considering the accumulated value of amounts paid. 000 mortgage payable monthly is to be reﬁnanced at the end of 8 years for an additional 15 years (instead of the 22 which would otherwise have been remaining to pay it oﬀ) at 6%. k/m minus the interest paid at (k + 1)/m.) Suppose that the new pattern of payments is to be valued at each of the nominal interest rates 6%. as of the end of 8 years. 904. (The points are each 1% of the reﬁnanced balance including closing costs.76) · (12a8 ) = $51.1.76. Thus. and that these valuations will be taken into account in deciding whether to take out the new loan.08/12)−360 ) = $733. 7%. Note as a check on the displayed formulas that the outstanding balance Bn. and costs plus points are then extra amounts added to the initial balance of the reﬁnanced mortgage. which at ﬁrst seems surprising. 018.08/12)/(1 − (1 + . is $(100. The general deﬁnition of the principal repaid in each payment is the excess of the payment over the interest since the past payment on the total balance due immediately following that previous payment. or 8%. 904. $100.30
CHAPTER 2. due to uncertainty about what the interest rate will be in the future. with a reﬁnancing closingcost amount of $1500 and 2 points. the new reﬁnanced loan amount would be
.31. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
that the amount of principal repaid in each successive payment increases geometrically in the payment number.
2.
34. whatever it is. Calculate and compare the present values (at each of 6%.21. continuing 15 years into the future. In that case both streams of payments would have to be revalued — the one before reﬁnancing. then it would be a ﬁnancial disaster not to reﬁnance.
(12) (12)
. so the present value at 6% is $733.06/12)/(1 − (1 + .68.76 · (12a22 ) = $107. and (b) if you reﬁnance to get a 15year 6% loan including closing costs and points.37 = $94.31 + 1. what is the present value at the current going rate of 6% (nominal) of the continuing stream of payments under the old loan ? That is a 22year stream of monthly payments of $733. 018.31 = $1850. Next. continuing another 22 years into the future.31. and despite closingcosts and points. 368. The new principal balance of the reﬁnanced loan is 92518.31 + 1850. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST
31
$91. 420. 500.37 . (a) if you continue the old loan without reﬁnancing.2. The respective present values (as of the end of the 8th year) at nominal rate of 7% of these two streams are: Old loan: 733. it is well worth reﬁnancing. The new monthly payment (for a 15year duration) of the reﬁnanced loan is $94. and this is the present value at a nominal rate of 6% of the future loan payments. Exercise: Suppose that you can forecast that you will in fact sell your house in precisely 5 more years after the time when you are reﬁnancing.76 (12a22 ) = $98. as described above. then this amount is (.06/12)−180 ) = $796. and each loan would be paid to the end of its term.06 New loan: 796.34 (12a15 ) = $88. 597. no matter what the term of the reﬁnanced loan is. (12) as calculated above. if the new rate of 6% were really to be the correct one for the next 22 years. 700.00 = $92. and 8% nominal interest rates) of your payment streams to the bank.76. suppose instead that right after reﬁnancing. 368.1. Thus.57 Even with these diﬀerent assumptions. For purposes of comparison. you would pay oﬀ the cash principal balance.68(. If 2 points must be paid in order to lock in the rate of 6% for the reﬁnanced 15year loan. 7%. At the time of sale. the economic rate of interest would be a nominal 7% for the next 22 years. and the one after reﬁnancing. 518.02)92518.
has monthly payments Newpaymt for a term of NewTerm years.1. and also on a programmable calculator. which seems to be the way that MBA’s. and the ﬁnal output of the function is the present value at the start of the reﬁnanced loan with nominal interest rate ValInt of the stream of payments made under the reﬁnanced loan up to and including the lump sum payoﬀ. in any language from Pascal to Mathematica. k/m of formula (2. is displayed in ‘unlisted’ form. which is equal to RefBal + Costs. Venables & Ripley 1998) is provided to do some comparative reﬁnancing calculations. but they are also very handily organized within a spreadsheet. The loan is to be paid oﬀ PayoﬀTim years after RefTim when the new loan commences. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
2. The function RefExmp given below calculates mortgage payments. for example.4
Computational illustration in Splus
All of the calculations described above are very easy to program. NewBal is the balance Bn. Oldpayment is the monthly payment on the original loan of faceamount Loan at nominal interest i(12) = OldInt for a term of OldTerm years. in each numerical example below. bankoﬃcials. The new loan.6) for n = OldTerm.32
CHAPTER 2. at nominal interest rate NewInt. an Splus function (cf. Concerning the syntax of Splus.
. and ∧ denotes exponentiation. Lines beginning with the symbol # are commentlines. m = 12. the only explanation necessary at this point is that the symbol < − denotes assignment of an expression to a variable: A < −B means that the variable A is assigned the value of expression B. The output of the function is a list which. The outputs of the function are as follows. Other syntactic elements used here are common to many other computer languages: * denotes multiplication. and the reﬁnanced loan amount is a multiple 1+ Points of NewBal. and the present value under any interest rate (not necessarily the ones at which either the original or reﬁnanced loans are taken out) of the stream of repayments to the bank up to and including the lumpsum payoﬀ which would be made. In this section. and k/m = RefTim. at the time of selling the house on which the mortgage loan was negotiated. balances for purposes of reﬁnancing both before and after application of administrative costs and points. horizontally as a vector. and actuaries will learn to do them from now on.
# OldTerm = term of initial loan in years. PayoffTim.vold^OldTerm) RefBal <.vold^(OldTerm .((RefBal * NewInt)/12)/(1 . # Costs = fixed closing costs for refinancing.vold^OldTerm) NewBal <.RefTim)))/ (1 . # Loan = original loan amount. NewBal = NewBal. NewInt. NewInt. # PayoffTim (no bigger than NewTerm) = time (from refinancing# time at which new loan balance is to be paid off in # cash (eg at house sale). # Points = fraction of new balance as additional costs.((Loan * OldInt)/12)/(1 . ValInt are # nominal 12timesperyear.(Newpaymt * 12 * (1 . RefTim. Points. Value = Value) }
. # RefTim = time in years after which to refinance. OldInt. OldTerm.vnew^(NewTerm PayoffTim)))/(1 . # NewTerm = term of refinanced loan. # The three interest rates OldInt.vval^PayoffTim))/ValInt + (RefBal * vval^PayoffTim * (1 . MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST
33
Splus FUNCTION CALCULATING REFINANCE PAYMENTS & VALUES RefExmp function(Loan.1. and monthly payments # are calculated.(NewBal + Costs) * (1 + Points) vnew <.(Loan * (1 .2.(1 + OldInt/12)^(12) Oldpaymt <.(1 + NewInt/12)^(12) Newpaymt <.(1 + ValInt/12)^(12) Value <. vold <.vnew^NewTerm) list(Oldpaymt = Oldpaymt. Costs. Newpaymt = Newpaymt.vnew^NewTerm) vval <. RefBal = RefBal. ValInt) { # Function calculates present value of future payment stream # underrefinanced loan. NewTerm.
0.33 94368 Note that. Suppose that you have a 30year mortage for $100. 1500.76 91018 94368 796. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
We begin our illustration by reproducing the quantities calculated in the previous subsection: > unlist(RefExmp(100000.0.) We consider next a numerical example showing breakeven point for reﬁnancing by balancing costs versus time needed to amortize them.000 at nominal 9% ( = i ).06)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 733. 0.
(12)
. what is the time K (to the nearest month) such that if both loans — the old and the new — were to be paid oﬀ in exactly K years after the time (the 7year mark for the ﬁrst loan) when you would have reﬁnanced. Figuring present values using the new interest rate of 7%. also with level monthly payments. The comparisons of the previous Section between the original and reﬁnanced loans. To use it. in valuing the old loan at 7%.76 91018 91018 733.8. 0.22. 7.07)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 733. and that after 7 years of payments you reﬁnance to obtain a new 30year mortgage at 7% nominal interest ( = i(m) for m = 12).22.e.76 98701 (The small discrepancies between the values found here and in the previous subsection are due to the rounding used there to express payment amounts to the nearest cent. with level monthly payments. with closing costs of $1500 and 4 points (i. are all recapitulated easily using this function.34
CHAPTER 2.0. since the payments under the new (reﬁnanced) loan are here valued at the same interest rate as the loan itself. 0. at (nominal) interest rates of 6. 15. 8.02.0. 30.0. for example. 4% of the total reﬁnanced amount including closing costs added to the initial balance). as follows: > unlist(RefExmp(100000. 0. and 8 %.08. 15. the arguments must reﬂect a ‘reﬁnance’ with no costs or points for a period of 22 years at nominal rate 6%..08.08. the present value Value of all payments made under the loan must be equal to the the reﬁnanced loan amount RefBal.30.06.
for cash payoﬀ at the time when reﬁnancing would have occurred) coincides with the New Balance amount of $93640. 3.09. 3.0.09. is 3 years and 3 months after reﬁnancing.. since the same interest rate is being used to value the payments as is used in ﬁguring the reﬁnanced loan.e. the valuation of the new loan does not depend upon the time K to payoﬀ. 0.29 98946 Next we compute the value of payments under the old loan. 98946. 1500. For comparison..04. 0.0. As remarked above in the previous example.7.62 93640 98946 658.0. 30. 98951.62 106042 The values found in the same way when the payoﬀ time K is successively replaced by 4. 10.09. 98593. 30. m = 4. for a bond with face value $1000. If the payments are made every 1/m year. 3.2. the value under the old loan for payoﬀ time 0 (i.. (It is ﬁgured here as though the payoﬀ time K were 10 years. or 1000 · i(m) /m.62 93640 93640 804.e.e5.e5. have the same present value from that time) ? We ﬁrst calculate the present value of payments under the new loan.7.07.1. also at payoﬀ time K = 10. although some bonds
. > unlist(RefExmp(1. 0.
2. then the payments are precisely the interest on $1000 for 1/m year. Thus.) > unlist(RefExmp(1.30.07)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 804.167. with nominal coupon interest rate i(m) .1. at 7% nominal rate. the payoﬀtime K at which there is essentially no diﬀerence in present value at nominal 7% between the old loan or the reﬁnanced loan with costs and points (which was found to have Value 98946). For most corporate or government bonds. MORE ON THEORY OF INTEREST
35
then the remaining paymentstreams for both loans from the time when you reﬁnance are equivalent (i. 10.07)) Oldpaymt NewBal RefBal Newpaymt Value 804.23.5
Coupon & Zerocoupon Bonds
In ﬁnance.25 are 99979. an investor assessing the present value of a bond is in the same situation as the bank receiving periodic level payments in repayment of a loan.0.0.
22 if the going nominal rate of interest were r (4) = 0. and that the nominal annualized mperiodperyear interest rate. which amount to 1000i(m) every year for R years. a ﬁnancial instrument which pays all principal and interest. or 1000(1 + r)−R . at which the ﬁnal interest payment coincides with the repayment of the principal of $1000. at a declared interest rate i = iAPR . then it entitles the holder to receive the stream of such payments every 1/m year until a ﬁxed ﬁnal redemption date. the value P represents cash on hand. when the zerocoupon bond has R years left to run and the appropriate interest rate for valuation has changed to r = rAPR . the correct price of the bond is the present value of a payment of 1000 R years in the future. Suppose that the time remaining on a bond until redemption is R (assumed to be a wholenumber multiple of 1/m years). A slightly diﬀerent valuation problem is presented by the zerocoupon bond. n − R years later.) At a time. is r (m) which will typically not be equal to i(m) . The ﬁnal repayment of principal in R years contributes the second term on the righthand side to the present value.8) (Transaction costs are generally ﬁgured into the price before calculating the yield i. which is assumed throughout this discussion. When ﬁrst issued. r(m) + 1000 (1 + m In this equation.36
CHAPTER 2. depending on the issuer of the bond) to declare the amount of interest income received or deemed to have been received from the bond in a speciﬁc calendar year. the
. Then the current price P of the bond is r(m) −Rm (m) ) P = 1000 i(m) aR . at the end of a term of n years. taking into account the creditworthiness of the bond issuer together with current economic conditions. it is easy to check that a 10year $1000 bond with nominal annualized quarterly interest rate i(4) = 0. a zerocoupon bond yielding iAPR which will pay $1000 at the end of n years is priced at its present value Πn = 1000 · (1 + i)−n (2. As an application of this formula. For an ordinary or coupon bond. an investor is required (either by the federal or state government. The ﬁrst term on the righthand side is the present value at nominal interest rate r (m) of the payments of i(m) 1000/m every 1/m year.06 would be priced at $863. at least in the US. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
have m = 2. If the bond is uncallable. but pays nothing before that time. For tax purposes.08.
2
Force of Mortality & Analytical Models
Up to now. the OID should be Πn r(j) in the year [j. . the present author makes no claim to have presented this topic according to the views of the Internal Revenue Service. .
2. . Then. For a zerocoupon bond assumed to have been acquired when ﬁrst issued. if the interest rate has remained constant at i = iAPR since the time of acquisition. The discrepancy between the ‘deemed received’ accumulated value and the ﬁnal actual value when the bond is redeemed or sold must presumably be treated as a capital gain or loss. the function S(x) called the “survivor” or “survival” function has been deﬁned to be equal to the lifetable ratio lx /l0 at all integer ages x. also called the Original Issue Discount (OID). However. . . the zerocoupon bond investor will be deemed to have received income Πn r(j) in successive years j = 0. 1. 1. with r(0) equal to i. n − R − 1. That is because all accumulated value of the bond would be attributed to OID interest income received year by year. then the interest income deemed to be received in the year. An equivalent representation is S(x) = x f (t) dt . . since he has never been able to ﬁgure out authoritatively what those views are. would simply be the year’s interest Πn i(m) on the initial eﬀective face amount Πn of the bond. . for j = 0. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS
37
year’s income is just the total i(m) · 1000 actually received during the year. . corresponding to a total accumulated value of Πn (1 + r(0)) (1 + r(1)) · · · (1 + r(n − R − 1)) while the price 1000 (1 + r(n − R))−R for which the bond could be sold may be very diﬀerent.
. . again because accumulated value over the initial price is deemed to have been received in the form of yearly interest. j + 1). n − R − 1. and to be piecewise continuously diﬀerentiable for all positive real values of x. j + 1). Intuitively. at price Πn . Assume next that the actual yearbyyear APR interest rate is r(j) throughout the year [j. n − 1.2.2. and (S(x) − S(x + t))/S(x) represents the fraction of those alive at age x ∞ who fail before x + t. The problematic aspect of this calculation is that. for all positive real x and t. when interest rates have ﬂuctuated a lot over the times j = 0. with the principal remaining the same at Πn . . S(x) − S(x + t) is the fraction of the initial lifetable cohort which dies between ages x and x + t. 1. .
1 pictures the agespeciﬁc 1year deathrates qx for the simulated lifetable given as Table 1. there is a rough yearbyyear decline in deathrates from 1. Two further useful actuarial notations. then P (T ≥ x) = S(x). The rate qx would be estimated from the cohort life table as the ratio dx /lx of those who die between ages x and x + 1 as a fraction of those who reached age x. where the logarithms of deathrates are plotted. which are likely due to statistical irregularity rather than real increases
. The topic called “Graduation Theory” among actuaries is the mathematical methodology of Interpolation and Splinesmoothing applied to the raw function qx = dx /lx . For example.38
CHAPTER 2. one important way in which numerical analysis enters actuarial science is that one wishes to interpolate the values qx smoothly as a function of x. Additional granularity in the deathrates can be seen in Figure 2. After a very high deathrate during the ﬁrst year of life (26. The way in which this quantity varies with x is one of the most important topics of study in actuarial science.45 per thousand in the second year to 0. lim P (x ≤ T ≤ x + )
x+
→0+
= lim
→0+
f (u) du = f (x)
x
as long as the failure density is a continuous function. To give some idea what a realistic set of deathrates looks like. If T denotes the random variable which is the age at death for a newly born individual governed by the same causes of failure as the lifetable cohort.1 on page 3. and according to the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus.2. In the most usual case where t = 1 and x is an integer age. (But there were small increases in rate from ages 4 to 7 and from 8 to 9. the notation 1 qx is replaced by qx .34 per thousand in the eleventh year.3 deaths per thousand live births). often used to specify the theoretical lifetime distribution. Figure 2. are:
t px
= P (T ≥ x + t  T ≥ x ) = S(x + t)/S(x)
and
t qx
= 1 − t px = P (T ≤ x + t  T ≥ x ) = (S(x) − S(x + t))/S(x)
The quantity t qx is referred to as the agespeciﬁc death rate for periods of length t. and 1 px is replaced by px . INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
where f (t) ≡ −S (t) is called the failure density.
It is clear that qx must also get small. As can be seen from Figure 2. Now consider the behavior of qx as gets small.2. (Compare this behavior with the GompertzMakeham Example (v) below. the same function is called the failure intensity. failure rate. since the probability of gets dying between ages x and x + is approximately f (x) when small.4 to 3.2. S(x) 0
f (u) du −→
f (x) −S (x) d = = − ln(S(x)) S(x) S(x) dx
where the chain rule for diﬀerentiation was used in the last step.
x+t x
µ(y) dy = ln S(x) − ln S(x + t)
. at ages beyond 40 there is a rapid increase in deathrates as a function of age. there is an erratic but roughly linear increase of deathrates per thousand from 0. the values qx seem to increase roughly as a power cx where c ∈ [1. The reasoning above shows that for small qx Thus µ(x) = = 1 S(x)
x+ x
.2. 1. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS
39
in risk.) This exponential behavior of the agespeciﬁc deathrate for large ages suggests that the deathrates pictured could reasonably be extrapolated to older ages using the formula qx ≈ q78 · (1.9)
where the number 1. roughly proportionately to .0885)x−78 . we ﬁnd x x µ(y) dy = − ln(S(y)) = − ln(S(x))
0 0
since S(0) = 1.10].) Between ages 11 and 40.0. In reliability theory or biostatistics. Similarly.08. x ≥ 79 (2.0885 was found as log(q78 /q39 )/(78 − 39). Replacing x by y and integrating both sides of the last equation between 0 and x. 0 is Deﬁnition: The limiting deathrate qx / per unit time as called by actuaries the force of mortality µ(x). However. f (x) . or hazard intensity.
04
• • • • • • • •
••
0.06 •
AgeSpecific Death Rate
• • ••
•
0.40
CHAPTER 2.02
0.
.08 • • • 0.1.0
• •• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • 0 20 40
••••
• •••
••
••
•
•
••
•
•
60
80
Age in Years
Figure 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
AgeSpecific Death Rates for Illustrative Life Table
• 0.1: Plot of agespeciﬁc deathrates qx versus x. for the simulated illustrative life table given in Table 1. page 3.
2.
.2.1.2: Plot of logarithm log(qx ) of agespeciﬁc deathrates as a function of age x. page 3. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS
41
Logarithm of DeathRates versus Age
for Illustrative Simulated LifeTable
••• •• ••
• 4 • •• ••
••
••
••
•••
•••
3
log(Death rate)
5
•• 6 • ••• •
•
•
•
••
• ••
•
••
• • 7 •••• • • • 0 8 • • • • •••
•
••••••• •••• •• • • •
•••
20
40 Age in years
60
80
Figure 2.1. The rates whose logarithms are plotted here are the same ones shown in Figure 2. for the simulated illustrative life table given in Table 1.
α. is a forceofmortality function which decreases on part of the timeaxis and increases elsewhere. (iv) Two other models for positive random variables which are popular in various statistical applications are the Gamma. (b) constant failure rate ( γ = 1. the exponential model again).
S(x + t) = exp − t px = S(x)
x+t
µ(y) dy
x
(i) If S(x) = (ω − x)/ω for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω (the uniform failure distribution on [0. then µ(x) = (ω − x)−1 .42
CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Now exponentiate to obtain the useful formulas
x
S(x) = exp − Examples:
µ(y) dy
0
. or (c) decreasing failure rate ( 0 < γ < 1 ). σ > 0
. then mortality follows the Weibull life distribution model with shape parameter γ > 0 and scale parameter λ. The force of mortality takes the form µ(x) = λ γ xγ−1 This model is very popular in engineering reliability. It has the ﬂexibility that by choice of the shape parameter γ one can have (a) failure rate increasing as a function of x ( γ > 1 ). ∞) ). β > 0
and the Lognormal. ω] ). then µ(x) = µ is constant. Note that this hazard function increases to ∞ as x increases to ω. But what one cannot have. m real. with S(x) =
x ∞
β y
α
α−1 −βy
e
dy /
0
∞
z α−1 e−z dz . (ii) If S(x) = e−µx for x ≥ 0 (the exponential failure distribution on [0. with S(x) = 1 − Φ ln x − m σ . (iii) If S(x) = exp(−λxγ ) for x ≥ 0. in the examples considered so far.
In human life tables. human life tables also exhibit an aging eﬀect at high ages. a simple modiﬁcation of it does. is called a bathtub shape and requires new survival models. reﬂects what engineers call “burnin”. ﬂat middle. the expectation is exp(µ + σ 2 /2). would occur if mortality arose only from pure accidents unrelated to age.1. since the highmortality diseases like heart disease and cancer strike with greatest eﬀect at higher ages. where after a period of initial failures due to loose connections and factory defects the nondefective devices emerge and exhibit high reliability for a while. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS where Φ(z) ≡ 1 + 2
z
43
e−u
0
2 /2
du √ 2π
is called the standard normal distribution function. As shown above. This pattern of initial decrease. Constant force of mortality. but not both. Between infancy and late middle age. where the causes of death operate with greater intensity or eﬀect at greater ages. which really does occur in certain situations. and ﬁnal increase of the forceofmortality. infant mortality corresponds to burnin: risks of death for babies decrease markedly after the oneyear period within which the most severe congenital defects and diseases of infancy manifest themselves. Of course. hazard rates are relatively ﬂat. Neither of these last two examples has a convenient or interpretable forceofmortality function. seen clearly in Figure 2. Actuaries have developed an analytical model which is somewhat more realistic than the preceding examples for human mortalty at ages beyond childhood. In the Gamma case. at least in western countries. the failure models in common statistical and reliability usage either have increasing force of mortality functions or decreasing force of mortality. The decreasing force of mortality reﬂects the fact that the devices known to have functioned properly for a short while are known to be correctly assembled and are therefore highly likely to have a standard length of operating lifetime. the expected lifetime is α/β.2. which is easily seen from the formula S(x) = x exp(− 0 µ(y) dy) to be equivalent to exponential failure distribution.2.
. while in the Lognormal. Decreasing force of mortality. Increasing force of mortality intuitively corresponds to aging. While the standard form of this model does not accommodate a bathtub shape for deathrates.
Suppose that µ(x) is deﬁned directly to have the form A + B cx .084. c > 1.09.5 shows survival curves from several analytical models plotted on the same axes as the 1959 US male lifetable data from which Table 1.1 was simulated. the ﬁgure of c was found to be roughly 1. Figure 2. One can see from these pictures that the Gamma and Weibull families contain many very similar shapes for forceofmortality curves. then c ≈ 51/20 = 1. which may be a reasonable value except for very advanced ages. (GompertzMakeham forms of the force of mortality). with further beneﬁts of realism. Thus the Gompertz forceofmortality model is the special case with A = 0. by adding a linear term Dx.4 display the shapes of forceofmortality functions (iii)(v) for various parameter combinations chosen in such a way that the expected lifetime is 75 years. one can arrange that the forceofmortality curve either be increasing or decreasing. has strictly positive second derivative) when B > 0 and c = 1. (Compare the comments made in connection with Figures 2. the additive constant A by Makeham.925 and that for lives
. The previous discussion about bathtubshaped force of mortality functions should have made it clear that none of the analytical models presented could give a good ﬁt at all ages.3 and 2. then it is easy to check that µ(x) = A + B cx + Dx has a bathtub shape. which corresponds roughly to US male mortality of around 1960. Roughly realistic values of c for human mortality will be only slightly greater than 1: if the Gompertz (nonconstant) term in forceofmortality were for example to quintuple in 20 years. (The Bcx term was proposed by Gompertz. Figures 2.1 and 2. The models ﬁtted all assumed that S(40) = 0. with 0 < A < B. initially decreasing and later increasing.2: for middle and higher ages in the simulated illustrative life table of Table 1. but that the lognormal and Makeham families are quite diﬀerent.) By choice of the parameter c as being respectively greater than or less than 1.) Note that in any case the GompertzMakeham force of mortality is strictly convex (i. If D < −B ln(c). INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Example (v). but the Figure indicates the rather good ﬁt which can be achieved to realistic lifetable data at ages 40 and above.e.1.. This restriction has the eﬀect of reducing the number of free parameters in each family of examples by 1. The GompertzMakeham family could be enriched still further. or µ(x) = Bcx .44
CHAPTER 2.
force of mortality) µ1 (t) which is a constant multiple κ at all ages of the force of mortality µ2 (t) for a second lifetime with survival function S2 (t) ? It means that the cumulative hazard functions are proportional. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS
45
aged 40.e.
2.925).0885 used in formula (2. Kalbﬂeisch and Prentice 1980) or biostatistics (Lee 1980).2..04 of surviving to age 90.2. i.5) and probability 0. Example. Thus.9) to extrapolate the 1959 lifetable deathrates to older ages. (72.1
Comparison of Forces of Mortality
What does it mean to say that one lifetime. Suppose that these four combinations have
. Consider a setting in which there are four subpopulations of the general population. c = 1.
t t
− ln S1 (t) = and therefore that
µ1 (x)dx =
0 0
κ µ2 (x)dx = κ(− ln S2 (t))
S1 (t) = (S2 (t))κ
.5). categorized by the four combinations of values of two binary covariates Z1 .e.g. T − 40 followed the indicated analytical form. 0. the latter of which is close to the value 1. Z2 = 0. has hazard (i.00346.
all t ≥ 0
This remark is of especial interest in biostatistics and epidemiology when the factor κ is allowed to depend (e. with associated survival function S1 (t). The Gompertz curve has parameters B = 0. by a regression model ln(κ) = β ·Z ) on other measured variables (covariates) Z.0918. 0. 0. clearly the Gompertz agrees most closely with the plotted points for 1959 US male mortality. This model is called the (Cox) ProportionalHazards model and is treated at length in books on survival data analysis (Cox and Oakes 1984. Parameters for all models were determined from the requirements of median age 72 at death (equal by deﬁnition to the value tm for which S(tm ) = 0.2.04).. (90. all four plotted survival curves have been designed to pass through the three points (40. Of the four ﬁtted curves. 1.
In each case.7 alpha=1.6 alpha=2
beta=1 beta=0.020
0.7 beta=1.010
Hazard 0.015
Hazard
0.46
CHAPTER 2.010
0. the parameters are ﬁxed in such a way that the expected survival time is 75 years.3 alpha=1.015
0.0 0
0.025
Gamma(beta.005
20
40
60
80
100
Age (years)
Age (years)
Figure 2.025 0.
.lambda)
0.3 beta=1.020
alpha=1 alpha=0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.3: Force of Mortality Functions for Weibull and Gamma Probability Densities.lambda)
0. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Weibull(alpha.6 beta=2
0.005
0.
020
0.B.0 0
20
40
60
80
100
Age (years)
Age (years)
Figure 2.002 A=0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0041.014 A=0.022
0.0070.005 0.6 sigma=2 0.6 sigma=1.003. B=0.015
0.0021.2. c=1.2. the parameters are ﬁxed in such a way that the expected survival time is 75 years.025 0. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS
47
Lognormal(mu. c=1.4 sigma=0. In each case.020
A=0.sigma^2)
0.0018.0022.015
Hazard
0.4: Force of Mortality Functions for Lognormal and Makeham Densities. c=1.
. B=0.010
0.0041. c=1.005 sigma=0.2 sigma=0.c)
0. B=0.010
Hazard 0.0010.025
Makeham(A.B=0.007 A=0.
Gamma.8
0. for ages 40 and above.2
Plotted points from US 1959 male lifetable
0.925. 1.925 · Stheor (t − 40)).48
CHAPTER 2.4383) Gompertz(3. 0. . and Gompertz — are taken as models for ageatdeath minus 40.246^2) Weibull(3.953e6) Gamma(14. 0. plotted as lines for comparison with 1959 US male lifetable survival probabilities plotted as points.46e3.4
•
• • • • •
0. Weibull.5.0 40
50
60
70 Age (years)
80
90
100
Figure 2. 1. 0.5: Theoretical survival curves. so if Stheor (t) denotes the theoretical survival curve with indicated parameters. The four analytical survival curves — Lognormal.653.74.04 respectively at t = 40. 72. the plotted curve is (t. The parameters of each analytical model were determined so that the plotted probabilities would be 0.6
•
Survival Probability
•
•
•
•
•
•
0. 90.0918) • • • •
0. 0. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Plots of Theoretical Survival Curves
••••• ••• ••• •• •• •• •• •
•
•
•
Lognormal(3.491.
.
5e0.1901 20000
. Z2 = z2 ) = exp(−2. Z2 = 0) versus those in the group with (Z1 = 0. sec.2 exp(−2.0138 for individuals with Z1 = 1 versus those with Z1 = 0.7z1 −. P (T ≥ x + t  T ≥ x.014.7 = 2. 2. Sec.8 = 0. and is multiplied by e−0.5((212 − 202 )/20000) Various calculations.5. Z2 = 1  T ≥ x + 30) we proceed in several steps (which correspond to an application of Bayes’ rule.4493 for those with Z2 = 1 versus those with Z2 = 0. Hogg and Tanis 1997. Px (Z1 = Z2 = 1) = 0.35 and that for a life aged x and all t > 0. For example.6): P (T ≥ x+30. can be performed easily .8z2 t2 /20000) It can be seen from the conditional survival function just displayed that the forces of mortality at ages greater than x are µ(x + t) = (2.8 and similarly P (T ≥ x + 30  T ≥ x) = 0.5e−0.5 e0. FORCE OF MORTALITY & ANALYTICAL MODELS
49
respective conditional probabilities for lives aged x (or relative frequencies in the general population aged x) Px (Z1 = Z2 = 0) = 0. or Larson 1982.3 .7z1 −.5(302 /20000)) + 0.15 . Z2 = 0) is not precisely e0. Z1 = 0 Z2 = 1 T ≥ x) = 0. The eﬀect on agespeciﬁc deathrates is approximately the same. but rather 1 − exp(−2.1901 + 302 ) = 0. related to the fractions of the surviving population at various ages in each of the four population subgroups.0085 1 − exp(−2. Z1 = z1 .2 Px (Z1 = 1. Z2 = 1) = 0.2.2.7 = 2. Direct calculation shows for example that the ratio of agespeciﬁc death rate at age x+20 for individuals in the group with (Z1 = 1. Px (Z1 = 0. 2.7 ((212 − 202 )/20000) = 2.15 exp(−2. to ﬁnd P (Z1 = 0. viz. Z2 = 0) = 0.8z2 ) t/10000 so that the force of mortality at all ages is multiplied by e0.5 e0.
35 exp(−2. quantitative measurement of a riskfactor (dietary cholesterol. diabetes. speciﬁc electrocardiogram anomaly). In these ﬁelds. it is currently illegal to use racial and genetic diﬀerences in this way. such as employee groups or voluntary organizations. by deﬁnition of conditional probabilities (restricted to the cohort of lives aged x).5 ∗ e0.. while gender diﬀerences in mortality can be used in calculating insurance and annuity premiums. or indicator of type of treatment or intervention. as can certain lifestyle factors like smoking. high blood pressure.8 ) = 0.7−0. In particular. taking ratios of the last two displayed quantities yields P (Z1 = 0. percent caloric intake from fat. The multiplicative eﬀects of various riskfactors on agespeciﬁc death rates are often highlighted in the news media. the measured variables Z = (Z1 . categorical variables for risky lifestyles. and regressiontype models like the Cox proportionalhazards model may be useful in quantifying group mortality diﬀerences when the specialgroup mortality tables are not based upon
.3 exp(−2.g. or exposures might be used in riskrating. All life insurers must be conscious of the extent to which their policyholders as a group diﬀer from the general population with respect to mortality. Zp ) recorded for each individual in a survival study might be: indicator of a speciﬁc disease or diagnostic condition (e. .50
CHAPTER 2. Z2 = 1  T ≥ x + 30) = 0. In an insurance setting. i. it can be politically sensitive in a lifeinsurance and pension context. . or to ascertain the possible risks and beneﬁts for health and survival from various sorts of lifestyle interventions. .. to create a prognostic index for use in diagnosis and choice of treatment.8795 20000 20000 Thus.8795 2.5e0. In biostatistics and epidemiology. . the objective of such detailed models of covariate eﬀects on survival can be: to correct for incidental individual diﬀerences in assessing the eﬀectiveness of a treatment. While riskrating is used routinely in casualty and property insurance underwriting. or exposure to a toxic chemical).e. occupations.2162 0.1901 = 0. relative weighttoheight index.7
302 302 ) + 0. in individualizing insurance premiums. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY + 0. Insurers can collect special mortality tables on special groups. for example by increasing premiums in response to recent claims or by taking location into account.
(a) Construct a cohort lifetable with h(t) as “force of mortality”. which occurs at t = 20 ln(5). EXERCISE SET 2
51
large enough cohorts for long enough times to be fully reliable.2. is (17 − 10 ln(5)) · 10−4 = 9. for 20 ≤ t ≤ 80
and 0 for other values of t. where r = annual interest rate. Find (1 + r)2n . compounded annually. t>0
This is a legitimate hazard rate of GompertzMakeham type since its minimum.)
. If you do the arithmetic using handcalculators and/or tables.08 · (Z − 20)). (2). preferably by means of a little computer program. i.5t + 2et/20 . See Chapter 6. The sum of the present value of $1 paid at the end of n years and $1 paid at the end of 2n years is $1.3. then what is the expected payment ? (b) If the value of the deathpayment described in (a) should properly be discounted by the factor exp(−0. (a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must pay his heirs $106 · (1.1 · 10−5 > 0.e. based on integer ages up to 70 and cohortsize (= “radix”) l0 = 105 . (Give the numerical entries. then what is the expected present value of the payment under the insurance contract ? (3).0 − 0. stop at age 20.4 − Z/50) at the exact date of his death if this occurs between ages 20 and 70.3.3
Exercise Set 2
(1).
2. for discussion about the modiﬁcation of insurance premiums for select groups. Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime Z with continuous density function fZ (t) = 1 360 1+ t 10 . by the nominal interest rate of e0. Suppose that a continuous random variable T has hazard rate function (= force of mortality) h(t) = 10−3 · 7.08 − 1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment. Section 6.
Find the accumulated value of $100 at the end of 15 years if the nominal interest rate compounded quarterly (i. A survival function has the form S(x) = c+x .000 at age 0. Suppose that you borrow $1000 for 3 years at 6% APR. (b) What is the present value of the payments you will make if you skip the 2nd and 4th payments ? (You may express your answer in terms of P .e. survival function based on a cohort life table) has the property that 1 px = γ · (γ 2 )x for some ﬁxed γ between 0 and 1.
. If a mortality table is derived from this survival function with a radix l0 of 100.1. and ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 30 will survive to attain age 35. Do the MortgageReﬁnancing exercise given in the Illustrative on mortgage reﬁnancing at the end of Section 2. given that it exceeds 3 ? Hint: ﬁnd a closedform formula for S(t) = P (T ≥ t). Suppose that a survival distribution (i. ) (7). to be repaid in level payments every six months (twice yearly).01 t for 0 ≤ t ≤ 3. one dies annually until there are no survivors. (b) Suppose that for x between ages 12 and 40 in a certain population. (a) Find the level payment amount P . )
c−x (10). INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
(b) What is the probability that the random variable T exceeds 30. for every real ≥ 0. then ﬁnd the equivalent single eﬀective rate of interest or APR for money invested at interest over the interval 0 ≤ t ≤ 3 . (8). and if the nominal rate of discount compounded semiannually (m = 2) is 6% for the third 5 years. (9). if the eﬀective rate of discount is 7% for the second 5 years. i(4) ) is 8% for the ﬁrst 5 years.. If the instantaneous interest rate is r(t) = 0.e. (6).. Find a simple function that can be used as S(x) for this population. (a) The mortality pattern of a certain population may be described as follows: out of every 98 lives born together.52
CHAPTER 2. and ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 30 will survive to attain age 35. (5). What does this imply about S(x) ? (Give as much information about S as you can. 10% of the lives aged x die before reaching age x+1 . (4). Find a simple function that can be used as S(x) for this population.
r are constants (with r > 0). if paid as a lump sum at time
.
Y pY +1 = (1 + r) px x
where k is a function of Y alone and A. A homeowner borrows $100. agreeing to repay by 30 equal yearly payments beginning one year from the time of the loan. pays nothing on the 4th and 5th anniversaries of the loan). If for all starting ages the probability of surviving 6 years according to the higherrisk table is equal to the probability of surviving 9 years according to the standard table. For each Y and for all ages x µY = A · k(Y ) + B cx x . Y . beginning with Y = 1950. then derive a general expression for k(Y ). EXERCISE SET 2 and if l35 = 44. (a) How much is each payment ? (b) Suppose that after paying the ﬁrst 3 yearly payments. ﬁgured at 7% ). Find the outstanding balance at the 6th anniversary of the loan. 000 at 7% APR from a bank. (12). higherrisk mortality table also follows Makeham’s Law with force of mortality µ∗ = A ∗ + B ∗ cx x at all ages x
with the same constant c. B. the homeowner misses the next two (i. This is the amount which. (13). The mortality functions for the various tables are denoted by the appropriate superscript Y . If k(1950) = 1. B. A standard mortality table follows Makeham’s Law with force of mortality µx = A + B c x at all ages x A separate.3.e. 000 : (i) What is the terminal age of the table ? (ii) What is the probability of surviving from birth to age 60 ?
53
(iii) What is the probability of a person at exact age 10 dying between exact ages 30 and 45 ? (11). then express each of A∗ and B ∗ in terms of A. c. A separate life table has been constructed for each calendar year of birth.2.
the accumulated value of the fund is 574.11. From t = 3 to t = 7. if for the next 15 years. the eﬀective interest rate for valuation is iAPR = 0. (b) 20 years.06) = 2 · 0. m − 2. How large must a halfyearly payment be in order that the stream of payments starting immediately be equivalent (in present value terms) at 6% interest to a lumpsum payment of $5000. A deposit of 300 is made into a fund at time t = 0. in which n = ∞. . 5/m. The fund pays interest for the ﬁrst three years at a nominal monthly rate d(12) of discount. (14).07.06−n ) So the answer to part (c). . Calculate d(12) . (16). Example 2.02871)/(1 − 1.57/(1 − 1.
. interest is credited according to the force of interest δt = 1/(3t + 3).02871. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
6. or (c) forever ? If the payment size is P .06. . As of time t = 7. the answers are $325. is $143. if for the next 15 years. 000 30year coupon bond with nominal 6% semiannual coupon (n = 30.
2. (15).07. Calculate the price at which you would sell a 30year zerocoupon bond with face amount $10.06−n (2) 5000 = 2 P · an = 2 P ¨ d(2) √ = 2(1 − 1/ 1. Assume m is divisible by 2.54
CHAPTER 2.06). has present value together with the amounts already paid of $100. respectively with n = 10 and 20. Express in two diﬀerent ways the present value of the perpetuity of payments 1/m at times 1/m.57. 000 at time 0. the result is
Since d(2)
P = (5000 · 0. the eﬀective interest rate for valuation is iAPR = 0. i(m) = 0. Calculate the price at which you would sell a $10.06−n ) = 143. 3/m. 15 years after issue. and use either one to give a simple formula. if the paymentstream is to last (a) 10 years. For parts (a) and (b).4
Worked Examples
Example 1. 000 initially issued 15 years ago with i = iAPR = 0. $208. . then the balance equation is 1 − 1.62.
2/m. 4/m. WORKED EXAMPLES
55
This example illustrates the general methods enunciated at the beginning of Section 2. Therefore.1. Suppose that you are negotiating a carloan of $10.2. 3% for 3 years. Assume that all loans have monthly payments paid at the beginning of the month (e. and using the simple expression 1/d(m) for the present value of the perpetuitydue. Observe ﬁrst of all that the speciﬁed paymentstream is exactly the same as a stream of payments of 1/m at times 0. the present value ¨
.g. or a cash discount of $500 ? Show how the answer depends upon the interest rate with respect to which you calculate present values. 000. shows that that the present value requested in the Example is 1 d(m) · v 1/m 1 1 = (m) −1/m = (m) 1/m 1+v d (v + 1) d (2 + i(m) /m)
and this answer is valid whether or not m is even. ..4. 2% for 2 years. forever. Example 3. Thus the present value has the second expression 1 (m/2) (m) ¨ a∞ − a ∞ ¨ 2 Equating the two expressions allows us to conclude that 1 (m/2) (m) a∞ ¨ = a∞ ¨ 2 (1 + v 1/m )
Substituting this into the ﬁrst of the displayed presentvalue expressions. a ﬁrst is exactly onehalf that of the stream whose present value is a∞ ¨ present value expression is 1 (m/2) v 1/m a∞ ¨ 2 A second way of looking at the paymentstream at odd multiples of 1/m is as the perpetuitydue payment stream ( 1/m at times k/m for all k ≥ 0) minus the paymentstream discussed above of amounts 1/m at times 2k/m for all nonnegative integers k. and give numerical answers for present values calculated at 6% and 8%. . . the 4 year loan has 48 monthly payments paid at time 0 and at the ends of 47 succeeding months). deferred by a time 1/m. The monthly payments for an nyear loan at interestrate i is 10000/ (12) (12 an ) = (10000/12) d(12) /(1 − (1 + i)−n ). Would you rather have an interest rate of 4% for 4 years. Since this paymentstream starting at 0 (m/2) .
56
CHAPTER 2. assuming that S(5) = 0. 55]. (The cash discount is now the least attractive option.97 e−0. Suppose that the force of mortality µ(y) is speciﬁed for exact ages y ranging from 5 to 55 as µ(y) = 10−4 · (20 − 0.530 − y) Then ﬁnd analytical expressions for the survival probabilities S(y) for exact ages y in the same range.25(y 2 −25))
y
so that S(30) = 0. .89 so that the most attractive option is the cash discount (which would make the present value of the debt owed to be $9500). 54.97 exp −10−4 (5(y−5)+0.77 For 3year 3% loan: $9599. The key formulas connecting force of mortality and survival function are here applied separately on the ageintervals [5.5(30 − z)) dz
. First for 5 ≤ y ≤ 30.73 For 2year 2% loan: $9475. 30] and [30.02 For 2year 2% loan: $9642. as follows. . Next.
y
S(y) = S(5) exp(−
5
µ(z) dz) = 0.72 For 3year 3% loan: $9349.034375 = 0. the present values are calculated as follows: For 4year 4% loan: $9645.08.93722. and for the (oneyear) deathrates qx for integer ages x = 5.97. the present values of the various options are: For 4year 4% loan: $9314. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
at interestrate r of the nyear monthly paymentstream is 10000 · 1 − (1 + i)−1/12 1 − (1 + r)−n · 1 − (1 + r)−1/12 1 − (1 + i)−n
Using interestrate r = 0.68 so that the most attractive option in this case is the 4year loan.06. .) Example 4. using interestrate r = 0. and for 30 ≤ y ≤ 55 S(y) = S(30) exp − 10−4
30
(20 + 0. .
9372 exp − . qx = S(x + 1)/S(x) = exp − 5 · 10−5 (10.002 + 2. 29.2. . . WORKED EXAMPLES = 0. in the case x = 30. in the case x = 5. .002(y − 30) + 2.5 · 10−5 (y − 30)2
57
The deathrates qx therefore have two diﬀerent analytical forms: ﬁrst. 54. .5 + x) and second. . . . .4.5 · 10−5 (2(x − 30) + 1)
. qx = exp − .
25–25
an m = v 1/m an m ¨ p. 24
(m)
an
=
1 − vn i(m)
. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
2.58
CHAPTER 2. 29
. 28
(D(m) a)n ¨
(m)
= (n +
1 (m) (m) ) an − (I (m) a)n ¨ ¨ m p.
a∞ m = ¨
1 d(m) p. 25
a∞
(m)
=
1 i(m)
. 26
(I (m) a)n ¨
(m)
= a∞ ¨
(m)
an ¨
(m)
− n vn p. 25
(∞)
an ¨
= an ∞ = a n =
1 − vn δ p.5
Useful Formulas from Chapter 2
v = 1/(1 + i) p.
an ¨
(m)
=
1 − vn d(m) pp. 28 Loan Amt m an ¨
(m)
nyr m’thly Mortgage Paymt :
p.
39
x
S(x) = exp( −
µ(y) dy)
0
p.5. at
k + : m
Bn.
µ(x) = µ .
f (x) = µe−µx .2. 38
qx = 1 qx =
dx lx
. ω
f (x) =
1 . USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 2
59
nyr Mortgage Bal.: S(x) = e−µx .
x>0 p. 42
Unif.
p x = 1 px = 1 − q x p. 42
Expon. 42
.:
S(x) =
ω−x .k/m =
1 − v n−k/m 1 − vn
p. Dist. 38
t px
= 1 − t px p. 38
µ(x + t) =
f (x + t) ∂ ∂ = − ln S(x + t) = − ln lx+t S(x + t) ∂t ∂t p. 30
t px =
S(x + t) = exp − S(x)
t
µ(x + s) ds
0
p. ω
0≤x≤ω p. Failure Dist.
Dist.
x≥0 x≥0
Gompertz:
.
x>0 p. 42
Makeham:
µ(x) = A + Bcx µ(x) = Bcx
.
γ
µ(x) = λγxγ−1 .: S(x) = e−λx .60
CHAPTER 2. INTEREST & FORCE OF MORTALITY
Weibull. 44
.
S(x) = exp −Ax −
B x (c − 1) ln c p.
Chapter 3 More Probability Theory for Life Tables
3.1 Interpreting Force of Mortality
This Section consists of remarks, relating the force of mortality for a continuously distributed lifetime random variable T (with continuous density function f ) to conditional probabilities for discrete random variables. Indeed, for m large (e.g. as large as 4 or 12), the discrete random variable [T m]/m gives a close approximation to T and represents the attained age at death measured in wholenumber multiples of fractions h = one mth of a year. (Here [·] denotes the greatest integer less than or equal to its real argument.) Since surviving an additional time t = nh can be viewed as successively surviving to reach times h, 2h, 3h, . . . , nh, and since (by the deﬁnition of conditional probability) P (A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An ) = P (A1 ) · P (A2 A1 ) · · · P (An A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An−1 ) we have (with the interpretation Ak = {T ≥ x + kh} )
nh px
=
h px
· h px+h · h px+2h · · · h px+(n−1)h
The form in which this formula is most often useful is the case h = 1: for integers k ≥ 2, (3.1) k px = px · px+1 · px+2 · · · px+k−1 61
62
CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Every continuous waitingtime random variable can be approximated by a discrete random variable with possible values which are multiples of a ﬁxed small unit h of time, and therefore the random survival time can be viewed as the (ﬁrst failure among a) succession of results of a sequence of independent coinﬂips with successive probabilities h pkh of heads. By the Mean Value Theorem applied up to seconddegree terms on the function S(x + h) expanded about h = 0, h2 h2 S(x+h) = S(x) + hS (x) + S (x+τ h) = S(x) − hf (x) − f (x+τ h) 2 2 for some 0 < τ < 1, if f is continuously diﬀerentiable. Therefore, using the deﬁnition of µ(x) as f (x)/S(x) given on page 39,
h px
=1 − h·
S(x) − S(x + h) hS(x)
= 1 − h µ(x) +
h f (x + τ h) 2 S(x)
Going in the other direction, the previously derived formula
x+h h px
= exp −
µ(y) dy
x
can be interpreted by considering the fraction of individuals observed to reach age x who thereafter experience hazard of mortality µ(y) dy on successive inﬁnitesimal intervals [y, y+dy] within [x, x+h). The lives aged x survive to age x + h with probability equal to a limiting product of inﬁnitesimal terms (1−µ(y) dy) ∼ exp(−µ(y) dy), yielding an overall conditional survival probability equal to the negative exponential of accumulated hazard over [x, x + h).
3.2
Interpolation Between Integer Ages
There is a Taylorseries justiﬁcation of “actuarial approximations” for lifetable related functions. Let g(x) be a smooth function with small g (x) , and let T be the lifetime random variable (for a randomly selected member of the population represented by the lifetable), with [T ] denoting its integer part, i.e., the largest integer k for which k ≤ T . Then by the Mean Value
3.2. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES
63
Theorem, applied up to seconddegree terms for the function g(t) = g(k +u) (with t = k + u, k = [t]) expanded in u ∈ (0, 1) about 0, E(g(T )) = E(g([T ]) + (T − [T ]) g ([T ]) + 1 (T − [T ])2 g (T∗ )) 2 (3.2)
where T∗ lies between [T ] and T . Now in case the rateofchange of g is very small, the third term may be dropped, providing the approximate formula E(g(T )) ≈ Eg([T ]) + E (T − [T ]) g ([T ]) (3.3) Simpliﬁcations will result from this formula especially if the behavior of conditional probabilities concerning T − [T ] given [T ] = k turns out not to depend upon the value of k. (This property can be expressed by saying that the random integer [T ] and random fractional part T − [T ] of the age at death are independent random variables.) This is true in particular if it is also true that P (T − [T ] ≥ s  k ≤ T < k + 1) is approximately 1 − s for all k and for 0 < s < 1, as would be the case if the density of T were constant on each interval [k, k + 1) (i.e., if the distribution of T were conditionally uniform given [T ] ): then T − [T ] would be uniformly distributed on [0, 1), with density f (s) = 1 for 0 ≤ s < 1. Then E((T − [T ]) g ([T ])) = E(g ([T ]))/2, implying by (3.3) that E(g(T )) ≈ E(g([T ]) + 1 1 g ([T ])) ≈ E g([T ] + ) 2 2
where the last step follows by the ﬁrstorder Taylor approximation g(k + 1/2) ≈ g(k) + 1 g (k) 2
One particular application of the ideas of the previous paragraph concern socalled expected residual lifetimes. Demographers tabulate, for all integer ages x in a speciﬁed population, what is the average number ex of remaining years of life to individuals who have just attained exact age x. This is a quantity which, when compared across national or generational boundaries, can give some insight into the way societies diﬀer and change over time. In the setting of the previous paragraph, we are considering the function g(t) = t − x for a ﬁxed x, and calculating expectations E(·) conditionally for a life aged x, i.e. conditionally given T ≥ x. In this setting, the
. (ii) (Piecewiseconstant hazard) µ(k + t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 . f (x) and µ(x) between integers are usually based on one of the following assumptions: (i) (Piecewiseuniform density) f (k + t) is constant for 0 ≤ t < 1 . Approximations to S(x). Nevertheless they can and do make assumptions on the shape of S(x) in order to justify interpolationformulas between integer ages. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
approximation described above says that if we can treat the density of T as constant within each whole year of attained integer age. i. Note that for integers k and 0 ≤ t ≤ 1. “Actuarial approximations” often involve an assumption that a lifetable time until death is conditionally uniformly distributed. where ϑ denotes in each case the vector of real parameters needed to specify the model. We will see some instances of this in the exercises. The disadvantage of this approach is that actuaries do not really believe that any of the simple models outlined above ought to ﬁt the whole of a human life table. Data on survival at integer ages x can be used to estimate or ﬁt the value of the scalar or vector parameter ϑ. ϑ) can be used at all real x values. The following paragraphs explore this and other possibilities for survivalfunction interpolation between integer ages. Now assume that values S(k) for k = 0. . . after which the model S(x. .64
CHAPTER 3. over intervals [k. its density is piecewiseconstant.e. 1. then Mean residual lifetime = ex ≈ ex +
◦ ◦
1 2
where ex denotes the socalled curtate mean residual life which measures the expectation of [T ] − x given T ≥ x. One approach to approximating survival and forceofmortality functions at noninteger values is to use analytical or what statisticians call parametric models S(x. k +1) of age. i.4)
.e. S(k + t) − ln S(k + t) is linear in t under 1/S(k + t) assumption (i) assumption (ii) assumption (iii)
(3. (iii) (Balducci hypothesis) 1/S(k + t) is linear for 0 ≤ t < 1 . the expected number of additional birthdays or whole complete years of life to a life aged exactly x. 2.. have been speciﬁed or estimated. ϑ) arising in Examples (i)(v) above.
and S(k + t) = S(k) e−t µ(k) . the slope of the linear function S(k + t) at t = 0 is − f (k). µ(k + 1 1 ) = fT (k + ) 2 2 ST (k + 1 ) 2 (3. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN INTEGER AGES
65
Under assumption (i). where µ(k + t) = µ(k). Under (iii).8)
=1−
S(k + 1) S(k + 1) = (1 − t) 1 − S(k + t) S(k)
Next diﬀerentiate the logarithm of the formula (3. (3.e. which implies easily that S(k + t) = S(k) − tf (k). f (k) = S(k) − S(k + 1) ..7) with respect to t.5) also holds.2. to show (still under (iii)) that µ(k + t) = − ∂ qk ln S(k + t) = ∂t 1 − (1 − t)qk (3. so that under (i). i.3.5) and µ(k + t) = f (k) S(k) − tf (k)
Under (ii).9)
The most frequent insurance application for the interpolation assumptions (i)(iii) and associated survivalprobability formulas is to express probabilities of survival for fractional years in terms of probabilities of wholeyear
. 1 1 1 1 = +t − S(k + t) S(k) S(k + 1) S(k) (3. for 0 ≤ t < 1.7)
= 1 − (S(k + t)/S(k)). the result is S(k + 1) S(k + 1) = t + (1 − t) = 1 − (1 − t) qk S(k + t) S(k) Recalling that equivalent to
1−t qk+t t qk
(3. reveals assumption (iii) to be = (1 − t) qk (3.6) and pk = S(k + 1) = e−µ(k) S(k)
When equation (3.6) is multiplied through by S(k + 1) and terms are rearranged.
12)
t pk
S(k + t) S(k + 1) 1 − qk = S(k + 1) S(k) 1 − (1 − t)qk
The application of all of these formulas can be understood in terms of the formula for expectation of a function g(T ) of the lifetime random variable T .11). In terms of the notations t pk and qk for integers k and 0 < t < 1. and (3. The motivation is that in large lifetable populations.) Then assumptions (i). the formulas are:
t pk
= 1−
t pk
(S(k) − t(S(k + 1) − S(k)) = 1 − t qk S(k) e−µ(k)
t
under (i)
(3. (ii). The one preliminary piece of mathematical machinery which the student is assumed
. think of g(T ) = (1 + i)−T as the present value to an insurer of the payment of $1 which it will make instantaneously at the future time T of death of a newborn which it undertakes to insure. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
survival.10)
= =
S(k + t) = S(x)
= (1 − qk )t
under (ii) under (iii)
(3.66
CHAPTER 3. the number lx+t who survive t timeunits after age x can be regarded as the number of successes or heads in a large number lx of independent cointoss trials corresponding to the further survival of each of the lx lives aged x .12) are used to substitute into the ﬁnal expression of the following formulas: E g(T ) =
0 ω−1 1 ∞ ω−1 1
g(t) f (t) dt =
k=0 0
g(t + k) f (t + k) dt ∂ t pk dt ∂t
=
k=0
S(k)
0
g(t + k) −
3.3
Binomial Variables & Law of Large Numbers
This Section develops just enough machinery for the student to understand the probability theory for random variables which count numbers of successes in large numbers of independent biased cointosses. which for each such life has probability t px .10). (3. or (iii) via respective formulas (3. (For a concrete example.11) (3.
. y. N . . . . . . The second assertion follows immediately. The random experiment of interest in this Section consists of a large number N of independent tosses of a coin. The number of symbolsequences (a1 . 1}N such N N . and since these monomial terms arise only from the combinations (a1 . . Now a combinatorial fact can be deduced from the Binomial Theorem: since the coeﬃcient N is the total number of monomial terms y k z N −k which are k collected when (y + z)N is expanded as described.
k
(y + z) =
k=0
N
N k
y k z N −k
Recall that the ﬁrst of these assertions follows by equating the k th deriviatives of both sides at x = 0. aN ) ∈ {0. for k = 0. N . by applying the ﬁrst assertion with x = y/z and multiplying both sides by z N . in the nontrivial case when z = 0. . with probability p of coming up heads
. This that j=1 aj = k is given by k number N N (N − 1) · · · (N − k + 1) = k k! spoken as ‘N choose k’. z). aN ) of {y. where ai = 1 would mean that y is chosen ai = 0 would mean that z is chosen in the ith factor. and adding all of the monomials together. . . . . Each combined choice of y or z from the N factors (y + z) can be represented as a sequence (a1 . z} choices in which precisely k of the values aj are 1’s and the rest are 0’s. . BINOMIAL VARIABLES &
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
67
to know is the Binomial Theorem stating that (for positive integers N and arbitrary real numbers x. where k = 0.3. 1. . . . multiplying each combination of choices out to get a monomial y j z N −j . . This Theorem also has a direct combinatorial consequence.3. . Consider the twovariable polynomial (y + z)N = (y + z) · (y + z) · · · (y + z) N factors
expanded by making all of the diﬀerent choices of y or z from each of the N factors (y + z). 1}N .
N
(1 + x) =
k=0
N
N k
N
x . . an ) ∈ {0. therefore counts all of the ways of choosing k element subsets (the positions j from 1 to N where 1’s occur) out of N objects. .
and since. when l0 is large. designated ‘success’ — are called Bernoulli(p) trials. We are particularly interested in the event (denoted [X = k]) that precisely k of the cointosses are heads. we can regard the number lx+t of lives surviving to the (possibly fractional) age x+t as a Binomial random variable with parameters N = lx . called consistency. The space of possible headsandtails conﬁgurations. with each string a = (a1 . . the observed ratios lx+t /lx should reliably be very close to the ‘true’ probability t px . The
. there are N such strings. according to the discussion following the Binomial Theorem above. p = t px .e. Since the mechanisms which cause those lives to survive or die can ordinarily be assumed to be acting independently in a probabilistic sense. . Such cointossing experiments — independently replicated twooutcome experiments with probability p of one of the outcomes. Since each such string has the same k N −k probability p (1 − p) . From this point of view. the random variable X equal to the number of successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials. 1}N being assigned probability pa (1 − p)N −a . the observed lifetable counts lx should be treated as random data which reﬂect but do not deﬁne the underlying probabilities x p0 = S(x) of survival to age x. . the probability k which is necessarily assigned to the event of k successes is P( k successes in N Bernoulli(p) trials ) = P (X = k) = N k pk (1−p)N −k
By virtue of this result. aN ) ∈ {0. of this estimator to be close with very large probability (based upon large lifetable size) to the probability it estimates. The rule by j=1 which probabilities are assigned to sets or events A of more than one string a ∈ {0. 1}N consisting N of all strings a such that j=1 aj = k. consists of the strings of N zeroes and ones.68
CHAPTER 3. The good property. in the subset [X = k] ⊂ {0. is said to have the Binomial distribution with probability mass function pX (k) = N pk (1 − p)N −k . . k With the notion of Bernoulli trials and the binomial distribution in hand. the ratio lx+t /lx is a statistical estimator of the unknown constant t px . we now begin to regard the ideal probabilities S(x + t)/S(x) as true but unobservable probabilities t px = p with which each of the lx lives aged x will survive to age x + t . where a ≡ N aj . 1}N is to add the probabilities of all individual strings a ∈ A. i. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
each time. is established in the famous Law of Large Numbers. or sample space for this experiment. and therefore the other lifecounts lx for moderate values x are also large. common sense and experience suggest that. In other words. However..
not depending upon N .3. . BINOMIAL VARIABLES &
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
69
precise quantitative inequality proved here concerning binomial probabilities is called a Large Deviation Inequality and is very important in its own right. 1}N for N which j=1 aj = k ≥ N b. the number N of Bernoulli trials can be chosen so large that X P −p ≥δ ≤ δ N
Proof.3. p) random variable. the second inequality will be derived from it. (a) Large Deviation Inequalities. then P (X ≥ N b) ≤ exp P (X ≤ N c) ≤ exp − N b ln − N c ln b p c p + (1 − b) ln + (1 − c) ln 1−b 1−p 1−c 1−p
(b) Law of Large Numbers. After the ﬁrst inequality in (a) is proved. . If 1 > b > p > c > 0. a suitable subset of the binomial probability mass function values pX (k) are summed to provide P (X ≥ N b) = P (X = k) =
k:N b≤k≤N k≥N b
N k
pk (1 − p)N −k
For every s > 1. . .1 Suppose that X is a Binomial (N. aN ) ∈ {0. denoting the number of successes in N Bernoulli (p) trials. Theorem 3. which in turn consist of all outcomestrings (a1 . For arbitrarily small ﬁxed δ > 0.3. Since the event [X ≥ N b] is the union of the disjoint events [X = k] for k ≥ N b. this probability is ≤ N k pk (1 − p)N −k sk−N b = s−N b
N
k≥N b
k≥N b
N k
(ps)k (1 − p)N −k
≤ s
−N b k=0
N k
(ps)k (1 − p)N −k = s−N b (1 − p + ps)N
. and part (b) will follow from part (a).
The trick in the proof comes now: since the lefthand side of the inequality does not involve s while the righthand side does. 1−p
(3. as you can check by calculating that the second derivative in s is always positive. and the binomial theorem was applied in the last step. it follows that Y also has a Binomial (N. The minimum occurs where the ﬁrst derivative of the logarithm of the last expression is 0. i. gives the second inequality for P (Y ≥ N b) = P (X ≤ N c). Substituting this value for s yields P (X ≥ N b) ≤ = exp −N b ln as desired. Note also that c < p implies b = 1 − c > 1 − p = q.e. it remains valid if the righthand side is minimized over s. let δ ∈ (0.14)
. b (1 − p) p (1 − b)
−N b
1−b b + (1 − b) ln p 1−p
1−p 1−b
N
The second part of assertion (a) follows from the ﬁrst. Replace X by Y = N − X. and combine the inequalities of part (a) to give the precise estimate (b).70
CHAPTER 3. where the ‘successes’ counted by Y are precisely the ‘failures’ in the Bernoulli trials deﬁning X. where q = 1 − p. the ﬁrst inequality applied to Y instead of X with q = 1 − p replacing p and b = 1 − c. For part (b). choose b = p + δ.. 1. Therefore when b > p > c. Therefore. min(p.
P ( where
X − p ≥ δ) ≤ 2 · exp(−N a) N
δ ). PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Here extra terms (corresponding to k < N b) have been added in the nexttolast step. 1 − p)) be arbitrarily small.13)
δ a = min (p + δ) ln(1 + p ) + (1 − p − δ) ln(1 − δ (p − δ) ln(1 − p ) + (1 − p + δ) ln(1 + δ ) 1−p
> 0
(3. the quantity r ln p + (1 − r) ln 1−p as a function of r is convex and has a unique minimum of 0 at r = p. The calculus minimum does exist and is unique.
1−r r Note that for all r between 0. at s = b(1 − p)/(p(1 − b)). the upper bound given in part (a) for N −1 ln P ([X ≥ bN ] ∪ [X ≤ cN ]) is strictly negative and does not involve N . c = p − δ. q) distribution. and since the inequality must be valid for every s > 1. Since Y also is a count of ‘successes’ in Bernoulli (1 − p) trials.
with the true and estimated (from Theorem 3. k px which might realistically arise in an insurancecompany lifetable. In Table 3. 000 times a coin which is supposed to be fair (i. k.3. 10200] is. together with ‘theoretical’ probabilities k px with which these lives will survive for a period of k = 1.1 are given various combinations of x.3. The probability experiment determining the size of the surviving cohort lx+k is modelled as the tossing of lx independent coins with common headsprobability k px : then the surviving cohortsize lx+k is viewed as the Binomial (lx .1(a). To give a feeling for the probabilities with which observed lifetable ratios reﬂect the true underlying survivalrates.13)(3. and 0.1
Exact Probabilities.0046 is the exact probability with which the relative frequency of heads based on 20000 fair cointosses lies outside the range (0.3. to have p = 1/2) .1 various exact binomial probabilities and their counterparts from the inequalities of Theorem 3. we have collected in Table 3. The probabilities of such large deviations between X/N and δ are in fact exponentially small as a function of the number N of repeated Bernoulli (p) trials.98. Bounds & Approximations
Suppose ﬁrst that you are ﬂipping 20.98) − 10200 ln(1. The illustration concerns cohorts of lives aged x of various sizes lx .3.02) = 2 e−4. together.. k px ) random variable equal to the number of heads in those cointosses. or 10 years.e.3.02). 5. The ratio of the upper bound to the actual probability is rather large (about 8).00 = 0.14) give only an upper bound for the actual binomial probability. and the upper bounds given in (a) on the logprobabilities divided by N turn out to be the correct limits for large N of these normalized logprobabilities.3.1) probabilities with which the ratios lx+k /lx agree with k px
. The probability that the observed number of heads falls outside the range [9800. according to the inequalities above. but the absolute errors are small. lx .037
The inequalities (3. 2
3. 1. ≤ 2 · exp − 9800 ln(0. and in fact gives a much stronger and numerically more useful upper bound on the probability with which the socalled relative frequency of success X/N diﬀers from the true probability p of success by as much as δ.3. BINOMIAL VARIABLES &
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
71
This last inequality proves (b).
n → ∞.72
CHAPTER 3.and righthand sides of (3. pp.15) converges to 0 when p remains ﬁxed. the reﬁned form of the DeMoivreLaplace Theorem given in the Feller (1957. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
to within a fraction δ of the latter. which says precisely that the diﬀerence between the left. but also show that the lower bounds.3. The formulas used to compute columns 6 and 7 of the table are (for n = lx . 16873). .1 are obtained from the Normal distribution approximation P (a ≤ X ≤ b) ≈ Φ b − np −Φ a − np (3. This approximation is the DeMoivreLaplace Central Limit Theorem (Feller vol.15)
np(1 − p)
np(1 − p)
where Φ is the standard normal distribution function given explicitly in integral form in formula (3. p) random variables given in column 6 of Table 3. p. Much closer approximations to the exact probabilities for Binomial(n. are still noticeably smaller than the actual values. p = k px ): True binomial probability =
j:j/(np)∈[1−δ. This result suggests the approximation Normal approximation = Φ npδ np(1 − p) − Φ −npδ
np(1 − p)
. P (X > b) 1−Φ np(1 − p) b − np
converges to 1 if the ‘deviation’ ratios (b − np)/ np(1 − p) and (a − np)/ np(1 − p) are of smaller order than n−1/6 when n gets large. Moreover.1+δ]
n j
pj (1 − p)n−j
−n(1−p−pδ)
Lower bound for probability = 1 − (1+δ) − (1 − δ)−np(1−δ) 1+
−np(1+δ)
pδ 1−p
−n(1−p+pδ)
pδ 1− 1−p
Columns 6 and 7 in the Table show how likely the lifetable ratios are to be close to the ‘theoretical’ values. 172) reference says that each of the ratios of probabilities P (X < a) Φ np(1 − p) a − np . 1957. 1.20) below. while also often close to 1.
99 0.94 0.004 .3. Cohort Age n = lx x 10000 10000 10000 1000 10000 1000 10000 1000 40 40 40 40 70 70 70 70 Time k 3 5 10 10 5 5 10 10 Prob. Although the deviationratios in this setting are actually close to n−1/6 .9938 . 553).9938 .9973 .28.9778 .003 . more operational.75 0. p = k px 0.9863 .3. section XVI.9877 . way to render this conclusion of Theorem 3. δ .9866 .9995 .3.9995 . they provide relatively quick handcalculated estimates showing that large batches of independent cointosses are extremely unlikely to yield relative frequencies of heads much diﬀerent from the true probability or limiting relative frequency of heads.1.080 Pr.7 leading up to formula 7. within within 1 ± δ .9952 .9886
for the true binomial probability P (X − np ≤ npδ).1(b) is that two very large insured cohorts with the same true survival probabilities are very unlikely to have materially diﬀerent
.98 0.1 below are sensationally close to the correct binomial probabilities in column 6.9600 .1(a) are generally much smaller than the upper bounds given for them.3.9985 .14).9972 .50 Toler.9886 Lower Normal bound approx. BINOMIAL VARIABLES &
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
73
Table 3.50 0.75 0. If the probabilities in Theorem 3.9120 .020 . The ﬁnal column contains the normaldistribution (CentralLimit) approximations to the exact probabilities in column 6.9973 .9188 .050 . Another. .008 .94 0. k px ) random variables lie within a factor 1 ± δ of their expectations. p.9531 . the normal approximations in the ﬁnal column of Table 3.030 .9969 .9760 .020 . A still more reﬁned theorem which justiﬁes this is given by Feller (1972. 6) with which various Binomial(lx .) First.9949 .3.13)(3. not smaller as they should be for applicability of the cited result of Feller.9985 . then why are those bounds of interest ? (These are 1 minus the probabilities illustrated in Table 3.3. together with lower bounds for these probabilities derived from the largedeviation inequalities (3.1: Probabilities (in col. the formula of which is displayed above.9950 . frac.
Although we found the calculusbased formulas for lifetable conditional probabilities and expectations to be useful. However.3. or Larson 1982). at that stage they were only ideal approximations of the more detailed but still exact lifetable ratios and sums.74
CHAPTER 3. for practical purposes the normal approximation to the binomial probabilities of large discrepancies from the expectation is generally much more precise than the large deviation bounds of Theorem 3. The bounds given in Theorem 3. and similarly expectations of functions of lifetable deathtimes were averages over the entire cohort.1(a) get small with large N much more rapidly than simpler bounds based on Chebychev’s inequality (cf.1(a) (i. then we could imagine a newly presented life aged x as being randomly chosen from the lifetable cohort itself. we have come to view the lifetable itself as data.1(a).4
Simulation of Life Table Data
We began by regarding lifetable ratios lx /l0 in large cohort lifetables as deﬁning integerage survival probabilities S(x) = x p0 .3. governing each member of the lifetable cohort and of further prospective insureds.
3. with each ratio lx+t /lx equal to the relative frequency of success among a set of lx Bernoulli (t px ) trials which Nature performs upon the set of lives aged x . we come full circle: these relative frequencies are random
.e. We can tolerate the apparent looseness in the bounds because it can be shown that the exponential rate of decay as a function of N in the true tailprobabilities PN = P (X ≥ N b) or P (X ≤ N c) in Theorem 3.3. we began to describe the (conditional) probabilities t px ≡ S(x + t)/S(x) based upon a smooth survival function S(x) as a true but unknown survival distribution. We motivated the conditional probability ratios in this way. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
survival experience. Hogg and Tanis 1997. the constants appearing in square brackets in the exponents on the righthand sides of the bounds) are exactly the right ones: no larger constants replacing them could give correct bounds. as the Table illustrates. We said that if the lifetable was representative of a larger population of prospective insureds.. At the next stage of sophistication. Larsen and Marx 1985. With the mathematical justiﬁcation of the Law of Large Numbers. hypothesized to be of one of a number of possible theoretical forms. Finally.
using this Table with radix l0 = 105 .1. That is.8 by 300 or more (in either direction) with probability at most 0. l79 was to make the variable lx+1 depend ∗ ∗ ∗ on previously generated l1 . . . That is. To make this discussion more concrete. . . we treated the probabilities px = lx+1 /lx for x = 0. . With this successprobability. as x runs from 1 to 79. Accordingly. with counts lx given for integer ages x from 1 through 80.S. 79 as the correct oneyear survival probabilities for a second.
. W. .51103 · 56186 = 28712. . is given below. White Males 195961 reproduced as Table 2 on page 11 of C. px ). The complete simulated lifetable was given earlier as Table 1. at least for very largeradix life tables. the agreement between the initial and randomly generated lifetable counts is quite good. The Law of Large Numbers guarantees good agreement. . For example. with very high probability. they are extremely likely to lie within a very small tolerance of the otherwise unknown probabilities t px . The implication of the Table is unsurprising: with radix as high as 105 . computersimulated ∗ cohort lifetable with radix l0 = 105 . A comparison of the actual and simulated lifetable counts for ages 9 to 79 in 10year intervals. We used as a source of lifetable counts the Mortality Table for U. (Verify this by substituting in the formulas with 300 = δ · 56186).08. we illustrate the diﬀerence between the entries in a lifetable and the entries one would observe as data in a randomly generated lifetable of the same size using the initial lifetable ratios as exact survival probabilities. . with x = 69. SIMULATION OF LIFE TABLE DATA
75
variables which are not very random. In other words. highly accurate statistical estimators of the lifetable probabilities which we earlier tried to deﬁne by them. the lifetable ratios are. . and then to generate ∗ ∗ lx+1 as though it counted the heads in lx independent cointosses with headsprobability px . we successively generated. ∗ ∗ random variables lx+1 ∼ Binomial (lx . assertion (a) and the ﬁnal inequality proved in (b) of the Theorem show that the resulting count will diﬀer from . the ﬁnal simulated count of 28657 lives aged 79 is the successcount in 56186 Bernoulli trials with successprobability 28814/56384 = .4. the mechanism of ∗ ∗ ∗ simulation of the sequence l0 . Using simulated random variables generated in Splus. . . between the ratios lx+10 /lx (which here play the role of ∗ the probability 10 px of success in lx Bernoulli trials) and the corresponding ∗ ∗ simulated random relative frequencies of success lx+10 /lx . Jordan’s (1967) book on Life Contingencies.51103.3. lx only through lx .
(These probabilities pZ (z) must be positive numbers which summed over all possible values z add to 1. random variables Z with a discrete (usually ﬁnite) list of possible outcomes z. in which the j th policyholder is said to result in a ‘success’ if he sustains a damage amount equal to z . In a large population of N independent policyholders.
.) In an insurance context. The Law of Large Numbers for these Bernoulli trials says that the number out of these N policyholders who do sustain damage z is for large N extremely likely to diﬀer by no more than δN from N pZ (z). PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES Table 3. think for example of Z as the unforeseeable future damage or liability upon the basis of which an insurer has to pay some scheduled claim amount c(Z) to fulﬁll a speciﬁc property or liability insurance policy. that is.2: Illustrative Real and Simulated LifeTable Data Age x 9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 195961 Actual LifeTable 96801 96051 94542 92705 88178 77083 56384 28814 Simulated lx 96753 95989 94428 92576 87901 76793 56186 28657
3.1
Expectation for Discrete Random Variables
The Binomial random variables which have just been discussed are examples of socalled discrete random variables. for each ﬁxed damageamount z we can imagine a series of N Bernoulli (pZ (z)) trials.4. and to result in a ‘failure’ otherwise. each governed by the same probabilities pZ (·) of liability occurrences. The Law of Large Numbers says that we can have a frequentist operational interpretation of each of the probabilities pZ (z) with which a claim of size c(z) is presented. with a corresponding list of probabilities or probability mass function values pZ (z) with which each of those possible outcomes occur.76
CHAPTER 3.
. . . . says that out of the large number N of individuals it is extremely likely that approximately pZ (k) · N will have their Z variable values equal to k. j = 1. bj−1 . suppose that Z is a discrete random variable with a ﬁnite list of possible values z1 . i. . . . and let c(·) be a realvalued (nonrandom) cost function such that c(Z) represents an economically meaningful cost incurred when the random variable value Z is given. a limiting) value for very large N
m
Expectation of cost = E(c(Z)) =
i=1
c(zi ) pZ (zi )
(3. . . . and b1 . . . .3.16)
As an application of the formula for expectation of a discrete random variable. c(ZN ). consider the expected value of a costfunction g(T ) of a lifetime random variable which is assumed to depend on T only through the function
. . Zj−1 allows no change in the (conditional) probabilities with which Zj takes on its values. . . . . N : Zj = zi }
— is approximately given by
m m
N −1
i=1
c(zi ) · (N pZ (zi )) =
c(zi ) pZ (zi )
i=1
In other words. It follows that the average costs c(Zj ) over the N independent individuals — which can be expressed exactly as
N m
N −1
j=1
c(Zj ) = N −1
i=1
c(zi ) · #{j = 1. P (Zj = zi  Z1 = b1 . . . Zj−1 = bj−1 ) = pZ (zi ) Then the Law of Large Numbers. the Law of Large Numbers implies that the average cost per trial among the N independent trials resulting in random variable values Zj and corresponding costs c(Zj ) has a welldeﬁned approximate (actually. . N and costs c(Z1 ). . . . . zm }. applied as above. . . so that for all j. . zm . where k ranges over {z1 . SIMULATION OF LIFE TABLE DATA
77
Returning to a general discussion. .4. Here independent means that the mechanism causing diﬀerent individual Zj values is such that information about the values Z1 . . . Suppose that a large number N of independent individuals give rise to respective values Zj . .
. . namely c(z) f (z) dz.2). the weighted average of costfunction values c(z) which arise when Z ∈ [z. weighted by the probabilities with which they occur. has a value which with very high probability diﬀers from n·p by an amount smaller than δn. . . The discrete case was handled more conventionally. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
g([T ]) of the integer part of T . There is an analogy in the continuousvariable case.4. we observed that our calculations with Binomial (n. if the probabilities S(j) in the following expression are replaced by the lifetable estimators lj /l0 . as the approximate numerical average of the values g(Ti ) over all individuals i with data represented through observed lifetime Ti in the lifetable. In the continuous case. Since P ([T ] = k) = S(k) − S(k + 1). is written as a limit of sums or an integral.
3.2
Rules for Manipulating Expectations
We have separately deﬁned expectation for continuous and discrete random variables. z + dz]. with approximate probabilityweights f Z (z)dz. n . p) random variables justiﬁed us in saying that the sum X = Xn of a large number n of independent cointoss variables 1 .78
CHAPTER 3. each of which is 1 with probability p and 0 otherwise. we treated the expectation of a speciﬁed function g(T ) of a lifetime random variable governed by the survival function S(x) of a cohort lifetable. z + dz] are given by fZ (z)dz. Just as we did in the context of expectations of functions of the lifetable waitingtime random variable T . we can interpret the Expectation as a weighted average of values (costs. the general expectation formula (3. where δ > 0 is
. in this discussion) which can be incurred in each trial. This expectation was interpreted earlier as the average cost over all members of the speciﬁed lifetable cohort. In this case. Now the expectation can be veriﬁed to coincide with the lifetable average previously given. where fZ (z) is a nonnegative density function integrating to 1. where Z would be a random variable whose approximate probabilities of falling in tiny intervals [z. along the lines of a ‘frequentist’ approach to the mathematical theory of probability.16) yields
ω−1
E(g(T )) = E(g([T ]) =
k=0
g(k) (S(k) − S(k + 1))
agreeing precisely with formula (1. . First.
3.17) continues to hold if the deﬁnition of independent sequences of random variables Zi is suitably generalized. in the sense that for all k ≥ 2 and all numbers r. in terms of the ﬁnite set S of possible values of Z . Zk−1 = zk−1 ) = P (Z1 ≤ r) regardless of the precise values z1 . . as long as either Zi are discrete with inﬁnitely many possible values deﬁning a set S. . . all with r the same density f (t) such that P (q ≤ Z1 ≤ r) = q f (t) dt. saying that if Z1 . Z2 . i=1 This Law of Large Numbers extends to arbitrary sequences of independent and identical ﬁnitevalued discrete random variables. and the expectation is as given in equation (3. . then for each δ > 0. . . . and expectation is deﬁned by E(c(Z1 )) =
∞ −∞
c(t) f (t) dt
(3.19)
. The Expectation p of each of the variables i is recovered approximately as the numerical average X/n = n−1 n i of the independent outcomes i of independent trials. . .17)
where.18) above whenever the function c(z) is such that
z∈S
c(z) P (Z1 = z) < ∞
or the independent random variables Zi are continuous. .4.18)
Although we do not give any further proof here. it is a fact that the same Law of Large Numbers given in equation (3. are independent random variables. as n gets large
n
P n
−1 i=1
c(Zi ) − E(c(Z1 )) ≥ δ
−→ 0
(3. zk−1 . . E(c(Z1 )) =
z∈S
c(z) P (Z1 = z)
(3. SIMULATION OF LIFE TABLE DATA
79
an arbitrarily small number not depending upon n. P (Zk ≤ r  Z1 = z1 .
If a payment consists of a nonrandom multiple (e. c2 (T ) (which may occur at diﬀerent times. Many of these expectations concern superpositions of random amounts to be paid out after random durations.80
CHAPTER 3. and more generally in applications of probability within actuarial science. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES whenever the function c(t) is such that
∞ −∞
c(t) f (t) dt < ∞
All of this serves to indicate that there really is no choice in coming up with an appropriate deﬁnition of expectations of costfunctions deﬁned in terms of random variables Z. The following rules for the manipulation of expectations arising in such superpositions considerably simplify the calculations. we are interested in evaluating expectations of various functions of random variables related to the contingencies and uncertain duration of life. For the rest of these lectures. whether discrete or continuous. then the overall payment has expectation which is the sum of the expectations of the separate payments: Discrete case: E(c1 (T ) + c2 (T )) =
t
(c1 (t) + c2 (t)) P (T = t)
=
t
c1 (t) P (T = t) +
t
c2 (t) P (T = t) = E(c1 (T )) + E(c2 (T ))
. faceamount F ) times a random amount c(T ). Assume throughout the following that all payments and times which are not certain are functions of a single lifetime random variable T . then the expectation of the payment is the product of F and the expectation of c(T ): Discrete case: E(F c(T )) =
t
F c(t) P (T = t)
= F
t
c(t) P (T = t) = F · E(c(T )) F c(t)f (t) dt = F c(t)f (t) dt = F ·E(c(T ))
Continuous case: E(F c(T )) =
(2).g. (1).. taken into account by treating both terms ck (T ) as present values as of the same time). If a payment consists of the sum of two separate random payments c1 (T ).
α>0
. Consider ﬁrst the Gamma functions and integrals arising in connection with Gamma survival distributions. we conclude that E(I[a≤T <b] ) = P (a ≤ T < b b) = a fT (t) dt.5. if an uncertain payment under an insurancerelated contract. and the expected present value above is
b
E(v F I[a≤T <b] ) = v F
a
h
h
fT (t) dt
3.5
Some Special Integrals
While actuaries ordinarily do not allow themselves to represent real lifetable survival distributions by simple ﬁniteparameter families of theoretical distributions (for the good reason that they never approximate the real largesample lifetable data well enough). Since an indicator random variable has the two possible outcomes {0. then the expected present value under a ﬁxed nonrandom interestrate i with v = (1 + i)−1 . 1} like the cointoss variables i above. becomes by rule (1) above. occurs only if a ≤ T < b and in that case consists of a payment of a ﬁxed amount F occurring at a ﬁxed time h.3. it is important for the student to be conversant with several integrals which would arise by substituting some of the theoretical models into formulas for various net single premiums and expected lifetimes. The Gamma function Γ(α) is deﬁned by Γ(α) =
0 ∞
xα−1 e−x dx . based upon a continuous lifetime variable T with density fT . E(v h F I[a≤T <b] ) = v h F E(I[a≤T <b] ) where the indicatornotation I[a≤T <b] denotes a random quantity which is 1 when the condition [a ≤ T < b] is satisﬁed and is 0 otherwise. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS
81
Continuous case: E(c1 (T ) + c2 (T )) = = c1 (t) f (t) dt +
(c1 (t) + c2 (t)) f (t) dt
c2 (t) f (t) dt = E(c1 (T )) + E(c2 (T ))
Thus.
γ is f (t) = λ γ tγ−1 e−λ t .
Here we have made the integral substitution x = z 2 /2.. giving the total probability for an exponentially distributed random variable. applied inductively. For α = 2.20)
is a bonaﬁde distribution function with limit equal to 1 as x → ∞. integration by parts in the Gamma integral with u = xα and dv = e−x dx immediately yields the famous recursion relation for the Gamma integral. the integral is the expected value of such a unitexponential random variable. a lifetime with constant forceofmortality 1. shows that for all positive integers n.
γ
t>0
. More generally.82
CHAPTER 3. x−1/2 dx = The last integral can be given by symmetry as 1 √ 2
∞ −∞
e−z
2 /2
dz =
√
π
where the last equality is equivalent to the fact (proved in most calculus texts as an exercise in double integration using change of variable to polar coordinates) that the standard normal distribution 1 Φ(x) = √ 2π
x
e−z
−∞
2 /2
dz
(3. obtained as follows: Γ( 1 ) = 2
∞ 0
x−1/2 e−x dx =
0
∞
e−z
2 /2
√
2 dz √ 2 dz. Recall that the Weibull density with parameters λ. and valid for all α > 0 : Γ(α + 1) =
0 ∞
xα e−x dx = −xα e−x
∞ 0
+
0
∞
α xα−1 e−x dx = α · Γ(α)
This relation. One of the integrals which arises in calculating expected remaining lifetimes for Weibulldistributed variables is a Gamma integral. and it is a standard integrationbyparts exercise to check that it too is 1. i. Γ(n + 1) = n · (n − 1) · · · 2 · Γ(1) = n! The only other simpletoderive formula explicitly√ giving values for (non1 integer) values of the Gamma function is Γ( 2 ) = π. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
This integral is easily checked to be equal to 1 when α = 1. ﬁrst derived by Euler.e. after integrationbyparts and a changeofvariable.
The expected remaining life for a Weibulldistributed life aged x is calculated. z 1 Gα (z) = v α−1 e−v dv Γ(α) 0 and the integral on the righthand side is called the incomplete Gamma function.3. E(T − x  T ≥ x) = eλx = Γ(
γ
1 −1/γ λ γ
∞ λ xγ
w(1/γ)−1 e−w dw
1 λ xγ 1 −1/γ )e λ 1 − G1/γ (λ xγ ) γ γ where we denote by Gα (z) the Gamma distribution function with shape parameter α. or among the standard functions of many mathematical/statistical computer packages. via an integration by parts with u = t − x and dv = f (t)dt = −S (t)dt. We change variables by v = y 2 /2 to obtain for z ≥ 0. to give. Suppose that the lifetime random variable T is assumed lognormally distributed with parameters m. can be recast in terms of the standard normal distribution function Φ(·). σ 2 .5. SOME SPECIAL INTEGRALS
83
so that S(x) = exp(−λ xγ ). Then the expected remaining lifetime of a life aged x is 1 E( T − x  T ≥ x ) = S(x)
∞ x
t
d log(t) − log(m) Φ( ) dt − x dt σ
. One particular case of these integrals. G1/2 (z) = =
z 2z √ 1 1 2 v −1/2 e−v dv = √ 2 e−y /2 dy Γ(1/2) 0 π 0 √ √ 2 √ · 2π · (Φ( 2z) − Φ(0)) = 2Φ( 2z) − 1 π √
One further expectedlifetime calculation with a common type of distribution gives results which simplify dramatically and become amenable to numerical calculation. Matlab. in the Weibull example. as
∞ x
f (t) 1 γ (t − x) − (t − x) e−λt dt = S(x) S(x)
∞ x
+
x
∞
e−λt dt
γ
The ﬁrst term in square brackets evaluates to 0 at the endpoints. and the second term can be reexpressed via the changeofvariable w = λ tγ . the case α = 1/2 . or Splus. such as Mathematica. Values of Gα (z) can be found either in published tables which are now quite dated.
(3). we ﬁnd x = E( T − x  T ≥ x ) = 1 1 − Φ(x )
∞ x
m 2 √ eσy−y /2 dy 2π
The integral simpliﬁes after completing the square σy − y 2 /2 = σ 2 /2 − (y − σ)2 /2 in the exponent of the integrand and changing variables by z = y − σ. by the eﬀective interest rate of e.
t > 20
(a) If this individual has a contract with your company that you must pay his heirs $106 · (1. then what is the expected payment ? (b) If the value of the deathpayment described in (a) should properly be discounted by the factor exp(−0. 3]. The result is: meσ /2 E( T − x  T ≥ x ) = (1 − Φ(x − σ)) 1 − Φ(x )
2
3.4 − Z/50) on the date of his death between ages 20 and 70.08(Z − 20)) (i.
(2). and deﬁne in particular log(x) − log(m) σ √ Recalling that Φ (z) = exp(−z 2 /2)/ 2π . PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
Now change variables by y = (log(t) − log(m))/σ = log(t/m)/σ.08 − 1 per year) to calculate the present value of the payment. so that t = m eσy .6
Exercise Set 3
∂ p ∂x t x
(1). where k is a constant. Show that:
= t px · (µx − µx+t ) .84
CHAPTER 3. it is known that t qx = kt over the timeinterval t ∈ [0.02 (t − 20) e−(t−20)
2 /100
. Suppose that an individual aged 20 has random lifetime Z with continuous density function fZ (t) = 0.e. For a certain value of x. Express µx+2 as a function of k. then what is the expected present value of the insurance contract ?
.
3. for whom 20 p45 = 0. If he deposits $1000 in the fund at the end of each of the ﬁrst 10 years and $1000 + x in the fund at the end of each of the second 10 years.4. If the force of mortality governing a cohort lifetable is such that µt = 2 2 + 1+t 100 − t for real t . the number of successes lies outside the (inclusive) range [364. (9). Find upper bounds for the following Binomial probabilities. w. twice as many lives die in each 5year period as in the previous ﬁveyear period. (b). g. the integral in (a) can be ∞ evaluated in terms of incomplete Gamma integrals c sα−1 e−s ds. where k. where the fund earns an eﬀective interest rate of 6% . If the force of mortality can be assumed constant over each ﬁveyear age period (2024. Suppose that a lifetable mortality pattern is this: from ages 20 through 60. (5). Find the probability that a life aged 20 will die between exact ages 40 and 50. (10). etc. 446].8. (4). and Γ(1/2) = π . Find the numerical value of the present value if the eﬀective annual interest rate is 7% .g. Express in terms of annuityfunctions aN the present value of an annuity of $100 per month paid the ﬁrst year. EXERCISE SET 3
85
Hint for both parts: After a change of variables. then ﬁnd the probability that a life aged 20 will survive at least until exact age 48. The probability that of 1650 lives aged exactly 45. c are positive constants. no more than 1075 survive to retire at age 65. up to $1000 per month the tenth year. (8).).
(7). where the complete Gamma integrals (for c=0) are known to yield the Gamma function Γ(α) = (α − 1)!. (6). and if you are told that l60 /l20 = 0.0 .6. s. A man wishes to accumulate $50. 2529.. The probability that in Bernoulli trials with successprobability 0. 000 in a fund at the end of 20 years. using a spreadsheet or exact mathematical function such as pbinom in Splus) : (a). then ﬁnd x to the nearest dollar. Also: Γ(α + 1) = αΓ(α) √ for all real > 0. 0 < t < 100
(m)
. Show that:
∞ 0
2 x
lx+t µx+t dt = lx . $200 per month for the second year. for integer α > 0. Obtain an expression for µx if lx = k sx wx g c . and compare them with the exact values calculated via computer (e.72.
5 each. 000 in exactly 10 years.
.5. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
then ﬁnd the number of deaths which will be expected to occur between ages 1 and 4. given that the radix l0 of the lifetable is 10. Hint: calculate the respective present values V1 . Find the expected present value at 5% APR of an investment whose proceeds will with probability 1/2 be a payment of $10. 000. 000 in exactly 5 years. and with the remaining probability 1/2 will be a payment of $20.86
CHAPTER 3. and ﬁnd the expected value of a discrete random variable which has values V1 or V2 with probabilities 0. (11). V2 of the payments in each of the two events with probability 0.
01 on [15. we have the survival density f (y) = −S (y) = 0. and
(a) Suppose that an insurer is to pay an amount $100 · (64 − X) (without regard to interest or present values related to the timedeferral of the payment) for a newborn in the lifetable population.01 y for 15 ≤ y ≤ 49. Since the numbers of deaths are constant over intervals of years.02 y for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15. Now the expectation in (a) can be written in terms of the random lifetime variable with density f as
15 0 49
0. at integer values y. 0. 49).7.536 − . What is the expected amount to be paid ? (b) Find the expectation requested in (a) if the insurance is purchased for a life currently aged exactly 10 . if X denotes the attained integer age at death.3.02 · 100 · (64 − [y]) dy +
15
0. = 0. WORKED EXAMPLES
87
3. for 0 ≤ y ≤ 15 10000 − 200y 7000 − 100(y − 15) for 16 ≤ y ≤ 49 ly = 3600 − 240(y − 49) for 50 ≤ y ≤ 64
It follows that the terminal age for this population is ω = 64 for this population. 64]. and S(y) = 1 − 0. Alternatively.024 y for 49 ≤ y ≤ 64. and the lifedistribution is piecewise uniform because the the density is piecewise constant. and = 0.7
Worked Examples
Assume that a cohort 200 100 dx = 240 lifetable population satisﬁes l0 = 104 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 14 for 15 ≤ x ≤ 48 for 49 ≤ x ≤ 63
Example 1.85 − 0.024 on [49. 15). The ﬁrst task is to develop an expression for survival function and density governing the cohort lifetable population. extending the function S linearly. and 1.02 on [0. (c) Find the expected present value at 4% interest of a payment of $1000 to be made at the end of the year of death of a life currently aged exactly 20. the survival function is piecewise linear.01 · 100 · (64 − [y]) dy
. Speciﬁcally for this example.
So the summations now begin with k = 10. and the denominators of the conditional probabilities P (X = kX ≥ 10) are l10 = 8000.024 · 100 · (64 − [y]) dy
The integral has been written as a sum of three integrals over diﬀerent ranges because the analytical form of the density f in the expectationformula g(y)f (y)dy is diﬀerent on the three diﬀerent intervals.024 · 100 · (64 − k)
Thus the solution to (a) is given (after the changeofvariable j = 64 − k).4
j=1
j +
j=16
j + 2
j=50
j
The displayed expressions can be summed either by a calculator program or n by means of the easilychecked formula j=1 j = j(j + 1)/2 to give the numerical answer $3103 .88 +
CHAPTER 3.02 · 100 · (64 − k) +
k=15
0. The method in part (b) is very similar to that in part (a).01 · 100 · (64 − k) +
k=49
0. In addition. by
15 49 64
2. Therefore the integral just displayed can immediately be seen to agree with the summation formula for the expectation of the function 100(64−X) for the integervalued random variable X whose probability mass function is given by P (X = k) = dk /l0 The formula is
14
E(g(Y )) = E(100(64 − X)) =
48
k=0 63
0. except that we are dealing with conditional probabilities of lifetimes given to be at least 10 years long. observe that the integrand (the function g(y) = 100(64 − [y]) of the random lifetime Y whose expectation we are seeking) itself takes a diﬀerent analytical form on successive oneyear age intervals. The expectation in (b) then becomes
14
k=10
100 240 200 · 100 · (64 − k) + · 100 · (64 − k) + · 100 · (64 − k) 8000 8000 8000 k=15 k=49
48
63
. or alternatively end with j = 64 − k = 54. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
64 49
0.
1 at all ages y ≥ 40.04 = 1000 65 0.) Since l20 = 6500. The force of mortality here is µ(y) = − 1 d ln(1 − y/80) = dy 80 − y
So multiplying it by 0.04
Example 2.04 650 0.92
−15 1 1 − 1.7.X year for an individual currently at the 20th birthday is X − 19 years away. and for ages y over 40 changes the density from f (y) = 1/80 to f ∗ (y) = − d S(40) exp(−0. WORKED EXAMPLES which works out to the numerical value
15 49 54
89
3. the answer to part (c) is
48
1000
k=20
100 (1.04)−X+19 of the random variable X with conditional probability distribution P (X = kX ≥ 20) = dk /l20 for k ≥ 20.04−X+19 is the present value of a payment of 1 at the end of the year of death.04) + 1. Find the change in the expected lifetime of a cohort lifetable population governed by survival function S(x) = 1 − (x/ω) for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω if ω = 80 and (a) the force of mortality µ(y) is multiplied by 0. because the end of the age.25
16
j + 2.25
Finally.9 at all exact ages y ≥ 40. or (b) the force of mortality µ(y) is decreased by the constant amount 0.3. we ﬁnd the expectation in (c) as a summation beginning at k = 20 for a function 1000 · (1. (Note that the function 1.5
50
j = $2391.04)19−k + 6500
63
k=49
240 (1.9 at ages over 40 changes leaves unaﬀected the density of 1/80 for ages less than 40.0
1
j + 1.9 dy
y 40
(80 − z)−1 dz)
.04−29 24 −29 1 − (1.04)19−k 6500 = 392.
90 = −
CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES d 0.5 e0.9 ln((80−y)/40) dy = −0.5 d dy 80 − y 40
0.9
=
0.9 (2 − y/40)−0.1 80
80 0
Thus the expected lifetime changes from
40 80
(y/80) dy = 40 to
(y/80) dy +
0 40
y
0.9 (2 − y/40)−0.1 dy 80
Using the change of variable z = 2 − y/40 in the last integral gives the expected lifetime = 10 + .45(80/.9 − 40/1.9) = 40.53. Example 3. Suppose that you have available to you two investment possibilities, into each of which you are being asked to commit $5000. The ﬁrst investment is a riskfree bond (or bank savingsaccount) which returns compound interest of 5% for a 10year period. The second is a ‘junk bond’ which has probability 0.6 of paying 11% compound interest and returning your principal after 10 years, probability 0.3 of paying yearly interest at 11% for 5 years and then returning your principal of $5000 at the end of the 10th year with no further interest payments, and probability 0.1 of paying yearly interest for 3 years at 11% and then defaulting, paying no more interest and not returning the principal. Suppose further that the going rate of interest with respect to which present values should properly be calculated for the next 10 years will either be 4.5% or 7.5%, each with probability 0.5. Also assume that the events governing the junk bond’s paying or defaulting are independent of the true interest rate’s being 4.5% versus 7.5% for the next 10 years. Which investment provides the better expected return in terms of current (time0) dollars ? There are six relevant events, named and displayed along with their probabilities in the following table, corresponding to the possible combinations of true interest rate (Low versus High) and payment scenarios for the junk bond (Full payment, Partial interest payments with return of principal, and Default after 3 years’ interest payments):
3.7. WORKED EXAMPLES Event Name A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 Description Low ∩ Full Low ∩ Partial Low ∩ Default High ∩ Full High ∩ Partial High ∩ Default Probability 0.30 0.15 0.05 0.30 0.15 0.05
91
Note that because of independence (ﬁrst deﬁned in Section 1.1), the probabilities of intersected events are calculated as the products of the separate probabilities, e.g., P (A2 ) = P (Low) · P (P artial) = (0.5) · (0.30) = 0.15 Now, under each of the events A1 , A2 , A3 , the present value of the ﬁrst investment (the riskfree bond) is
10
5000
k=1
0.05 (1.045)−k + (1.045)−10
= 5197.82
On each of the events A4 , A5 , A6 , the present value of the ﬁrst investment is
10
5000
k=1
0.05 (1.075)−k + (1.075)−10
= 4141.99
Thus, since P (Low) = P (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ) = P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) + P (A3 ) = 0.5 the overall expected present value of the ﬁrst investment is 0.5 · (5197.82 + 4141.99) = 4669.90 Turning to the second investment (the junk bond), denoting by P V the present value considered as a random variable, we have
10
E(P V  A1 )/5000 = 0.11
(1.045)−k + (1.045)−10 = 1.51433
k=1
92
CHAPTER 3. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES
10
E(P V  A4 )/5000 = 0.11 E(P V  A2 )/5000 = 0.11 E(P V  A5 )/5000 = 0.11 E(P V  A3 )/5000 = 0.11 E(P V  A6 )/5000 = 0.11
(1.075)−k + (1.075)−10 = 1.24024
k=1 5
(1.045)−k + (1.045)−10 = 1.12683
k=1 5
(1.075)−k + (1.075)−10 = 0.93024
k=1 3
(1.045)−k = 0.302386
k=1 3
(1.075)−k = 0.286058
k=1
Therefore, we conclude that the overall expected present value E(P V ) of the second investment is
6 6
i=1
E(P V · IAi ) =
i=1
E(P V Ai ) P (Ai ) = 5000 · (1.16435) = 5821.77
So, although the ﬁrstinvestment is ‘riskfree’, it does not keep up with inﬂation in the sense that its present value is not even as large as its starting value. The second investment, risky as it is, nevertheless beats inﬂation (i.e., the expected present value of the accumulation after 10 years is greater than the initial face value of $5000) although with probability P (Default) = 0.10 the investor may be so unfortunate as to emerge (in present value terms) with only 30% of his initial capital.
t ∈ [0. S(k + t) S(k + 1) S(k)
k integer p.
k integer p. 64
(iii) Balducci assump. 61
(i) Piecewise Unif.
k ≥ 1 integer
p.. 66
t pk
=
S(k + t) = S(x)
e−µ(k)
t
= (1 − qk )t
under (ii) p. 1] p. 66
t pk
=
1 − qk S(k + t) S(k + 1) = S(k + 1) S(k) 1 − (1 − t)qk
under (iii)
.8. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 3
93
3.3. 61
k−1 k/m px
=
j=0
1/m px+j/m
.8
Useful Formulas from Chapter 3
k px
= px px+1 px+2 · · · px+k−1
.
k ≥ 1 integer p.
k integer . 64
t pk
=
S(k) − t(S(k + 1) − S(k)) = 1 − t qk S(k)
under (i) p. S(k+t) = tS(k+1)+(1−t)S(k) .
t 1−t 1 = + . 64
(ii) Piecewise Const. µ(y)
ln S(k+t) = t ln S(k+1)+(1−t) ln S(k) .
p) probability
P (X = k) =
N k
pk (1 − p)N −k p. Expectation
E(c(Z)) =
i=1
c(zi ) pZ (zi ) p. PROBABILITY & LIFE TABLES p. 77
Γ(α) =
0
∞
xα−1 e−x dx p. 82
. 66
Binomial(N.94
CHAPTER 3.v. 68
m
Discrete r. 82
1 Φ(x) = √ 2π
x
e−z
−∞
2 /2
dz p.
and next to use interest theory to deﬁne the present value of the contractual payment stream by the insurer as a nonrandom function of the random individual lifetime T . to obtain the corresponding formulas for insurances and annuities which have m payment times per year. an amount called the net single premium or net single risk premium of the contract because it is the single cash payment by the insured at the beginning of the insurance period which would exactly compensate for the average of the future payments which the insurer will have to make. endowment and life annuity contracts. We close this Chapter with a discussion of instantaneouspayment insurance. The details of the further mathematical discussion fall into two parts: ﬁrst. 95
. The approach is ﬁrst to deﬁne the contractual terms of and discuss relations between the major sorts of insurance.Chapter 4 Expected Present Values of Insurance Contracts
We are now ready to draw together the main strands of the development so far: (i) expectations of discrete and continuous random variables deﬁned as functions of a lifetable waiting time T until death. this leads to a formula for the expected present value of the payout by the insurer. and second. the application of the various survival assumptions concerning interpolation between whole years of age. and (ii) discounting of future payment (streams) based on interestrate assumptions. In each case. the speciﬁcation of formulas in terms of cohort lifetable quantities for net single premiums of insurances and annuities which pay only at wholeyear intervals.
and compare the corresponding integral and summation formulas. Similar and parallel discussions can be found in the Life Contingencies book of Jordan (1967) and the Actuarial Mathematics book of Bowers et al. The approach here diﬀers in unifying concepts by discussing together all of the diﬀerent contracts. More complicated kinds of contracts — which we do not discuss in detail — can be obtained by combining (superposing or subtracting) these in various ways. is
. we deﬁne Ex ( g(T ) ) = E(g(T )  T ≥ x) The expectations formulas can then be written in terms of the residuallifetime variable S = T − x (or the changeofvariable s = t − x) as follows: Ex ( g(T ) ) = =
0 ∞ ∞ x
g(t)
f (t) dt = S(x)
∞ x ∞ 0
g(t)
∂ ∂t
−
S(t) S(x)
dt
g(s + x)
∂ (− s px ) ds = ∂s
g(s + x) µ(s + x) s px ds
4. all of which involve continuoustime expectation integrals. life annuities.1
Types of Insurance & Life Annuity Contracts
There are three types of contracts to consider: insurance.
4.96
CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
continuouspayment annuity. Instead of the notation E(g(T )  T ≥ x) for expectations of functions of lifelength random variables. We also relate these expectations with their mpaymentperyear discrete analogues. ﬁrst in the wholeyear case. and meanresiduallife formulas. (1986). next under interpolation assumptions in the mtimesperyear case. it is helpful to distinguish notationally the expectations relating to present values of life insurances and annuities for a life aged x. A further possibility. which we address in Chapter 10.1.1
Expected Present Values of Payments
Throughout the Chapter and from now on. and endowments. and ﬁnally in the instantaneous case.
insurance will pay oﬀ at the end of the fraction 1/m of a year during which death occurs. or endowment contract.1. we adopt several uniform notations and assumptions. and therefore are exactly x smaller than the exact age of the policyholder at termination. Observe that the probability mass function of this random variable is given by P (Tm = x + = k k k+1 T ≥ x) = P ( T ≥ x) ≤T −x< m m m =
k/m px
k+1 1 k ) − S(x + ) S(x + S(x) m m
−
(k+1)/m px
. and assume for convenience that the contract is initiated on the holder’s birthday..4. deathbeneﬁts only under speciﬁed causeofdeath). Fix a nonrandom eﬀective (i. Thus. the survival function of T is denoted S(t). all times being measured from the date of policy initiation. APR) interest rate i . which has density f (t)/S(x) at all times t ≥ x.e. life annuity. Note that policy durations are all measured from policy initiation. for given m. Let x denote the initial age of the holder of the insurance. The probabilities of the various possible occurrences under the policy are therefore calculated using the conditional probability distribution of T given that T ≥ x. denote by m the number of paymentperiods per year. Next. and lifeannuities pay regularly m times per year until the annuitant dies. Deﬁne from the random variable T the related discrete random variable Tm = [T m] = age at beginning of m 1 th m of year of death
which for integer initial age x is equal to x + k/m whenever x + k/m ≤ T < x + (k + 1)/m.. As before. and the density either f (t). EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES
97
to restrict payments to some further contingency (e. The random exact age at which the policyholder dies is denoted by T . In what follows. and all of the contracts under discussion have the property that T is the only random variable upon which either the amount or time of payment can depend. together with the other notations previously discussed for annuities of nonrandom duration. The term or duration n of the contract will always be assumed to be an integer multiple of 1/m. and retain the notation v = (1 + i)−1 . We assume further that the payment amount depends on the time T of death only through the attained age Tm measured in multiples of 1/m year.g.
1)
·
1/m qx+k/m
As has been mentioned previously. the net single premium has the standard notation A(m)1 . dies at any time during a speciﬁed period. with present value F (0) v −x+ ([mT ]+1)/m . and number m of possible paymentperiods per year. death occurs within the k where n is the term. if death occurs at T between x and x + n. paymentamount function F (·). a life aged x. a key issue in understanding the special nature of life insurances and annuities with multiple payment periods is to understand how to calculate or interpolate these probabilities from the probabilities j py (for integers j. y) which can be deduced or estimated from lifetables. In this case. Then the payment is F (0). and both the payment and present value are 0 otherwise. An Insurance contract is an agreement to pay a face amount — perhaps modiﬁed by a speciﬁed function of the time until death — if the insured. (The insurance is said to be a wholelife policy if n = ∞.98
CHAPTER 4. the term of the policy. and a term insurance otherwise. with F (0) ≡ 1. but for example in decreasing term policies the payment will be F (0) · (1 − k−1 ) if nm th successive fraction 1/m year of the policy. x:n
. if x ≤ T < x + n.
The present value of the insurance company’s payment under the contract is evidently F (T − x) v Tm −x+1/m 0 if x ≤ T < x + n otherwise (4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS = P (T ≥ x + k+1 k k T ≥ x) · P (T < x + T ≥x+ ) m m m =
k/m px
(4. is to
1 pay F (T − x) at time Tm − x + m following policy initiation. Usually the payment will simply be the face amount F (0).) The general form of this contract. for a speciﬁed term n ≤ ∞.2)
The simplest and most common case of this contract and formula arise when the faceamount F (0) is the constant amount paid whenever a death within the term occurs. In the further special case where m = 1. with payment to be made at the end of the 1/m year within which the death occurs.
As in the case of annuities certain (i. A Life Annuity contract is an agreement to pay a scheduled payment to the policyholder at every interval 1/m of a year while the annuitant is alive. n) . EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES
99
the superscript m is dropped. . x:n Similarly. Indeed.. The present value of the insurance company’s payment under the life annuity contract is
(Tm −x)m k=0
F (k/m) v k/m
(4. the life annuity contract requires the insurer to pay an amount F (k/m) at each time k/m ≤ T − x. and by 0 for (m) larger indices k. nm − 1.e. ¨ and its expected present value (= net single premium) is denoted ax:n . the nonrandom annuities discussed within the theory of interest). for then the lifeannuitydue payment stream becomes an annuitydue certain (the kind discussed previously under the Theory of Interest) as soon as the random variable T is ﬁxed.1. In this general setting. either F (0) = 0 or F (n) = 0.4. we adopt the convention that in the ﬁniteterm life annuities. . up to a maximum of nm payments. ¨ In the case of temporary life annuitiesimmediate. when the insurance is wholelife (n = ∞). but in principle any nonrandom timedependent schedule of payments F (k/m) can be used. up to a maximum number of nm payments. . the subscript n and bracket n are dropped. Again the payment amounts are ordinarily constant. the expectedpresent value notation
(m)
. and the net single premium is denoted A1 . 1.3) is amin(Tm +1/m. if we replace F (k/m) by 1/m for k = 0. we refer to life annuities with ﬁrst payment at time 0 as (life) annuitiesdue and to those with ﬁrst payment at time 1/m (and therefore last payment at time n in the case of a ﬁnite term n over which the annuitant survives) as (life) annuitiesimmediate. then the present value in equation (4. .3)
Here the situation is deﬁnitely simpler in the case where the payment amounts F (k/m) are level or constant. To avoid ambiguity. where F (s) is a ﬁxed function and s ranges over multiples of 1/m. which have payments commencing at time 1/m and continuing at intervals 1/m either until death or for a total of nm payments.
one cannot simply multiply the present value of the life annuitydue for ﬁxed T by the discountfactor v 1/m in order to obtain the corresponding present value for the life annuityimmediate with the same term n. since neither the amount nor the time of payment is uncertain. and the subscript n is dropped when n = ∞. nonrandomduration annuities).5)
The net single premium or expected present value for a pure endowment 1 contract with face amount F (0) = 1 is denoted Ax:n or n Ex and is evidently equal to 1 (4.e. 0 otherwise (4. The pure endowment contract commits the insurer to pay an amount F (0) at time n if T ≥ x + n The present value of the pure endowment contract payment is F (0) v n if T ≥ x + n.4) In both types of life annuities..6) Ax:n = n Ex = v n n px The other contract frequently referred to in beginning actuarial texts is the Endowment Insurance. The correct conversionformula is obtained by treating the life annuityimmediate of term n as paying. which for a life aged x and term n is simply the sum of the pure endowment and the term insurance. in all circumstances. The third major type of insurance contract is the Endowment. both with term n and the same face amount 1. However. a present value of 1/m (equal to the cash payment at policy initiation) less than the life annuitydue with term n + 1/m. unlike the case of annuitiescertain (i. The diﬀerence arises because the payment streams (for the life annuitydue deferred 1/m year and the lifeannuity immediate) end at the same time rather than with the same number of payments when death occurs before time n. This contract is the simplest. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
is ax:n . which pays a contractual face amount F (0) at the end of n policy years if the policyholder initially aged x survives to age x + n. the superscripts (m) are dropped from the net single premium notations when m = 1.100
(m)
CHAPTER 4. Here the contract calls for the insurer to
. Taking expectations leads to the formula (m) (m) ¨ ax:n = ax:n+1/m − 1/m (4.
i. with the superscript 1 in the latter case positioned above the n. but only if death occurs after time n . EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES pay $1 at time Tm +
1 m
101
if T < n.10) below) that the notations for the net single premium of the term insurance and of the pure endowment are intended to be mnemonic. This policy pays a constant face amount at the end of the timeinterval 1/m of death. Thus.7)
(m)
The expected present value of the unit endowment insurance is denoted Ax:n . in both cases. because it is built up simply from the contracts already described.. n) (4. Another example of an insurance contract which does not need separate treatment. and at time n if T ≥ n
The present value of this contract has the form v n on the event [T ≥ n] and the form v Tm −x+1/m on the complementary event [T < n]. after age x + n for a new policyholder aged precisely x. the contractual payout is precisely the diﬀerence between the unit wholelife insurance and the nyear unit term insurance. respectively denoting the parts of the endowment insurance determined by the expiration of life — and therefore positioning the superscript 1 above the x — and by the expiration of the ﬁxed term. it can alternatively be viewed as an endowment with beneﬁt equal to a whole life insurance to the insured after n years (then aged x + n) if the insured lives that long.8). the nyear deferred insurance has net single premium = n Ex · Ax+n . With this interpretation. Note that Tm + 1/m ≤ n whenever T < n. When the face amount is 1.8)
Since this insurance pays a beneﬁt only if the insured survives at least n years.9)
. providing the identity:
(m) Ax − A(m)1 x:n
= v n n px · Ax+n
(4. the present value is given by v min(Tm −x+1/m. This expected present value must therefore be equal to (4. Observe (for example in equation (4.e. is the nyear deferred insurance.4. and the formula for the net single premium is
(m) Ax − A(m)1 x:n
(4.1.
n) = ¨ d(m) The key idea is that the unit life annuitydue has present value which is a simple linear function of the present value v min(Tm −x+1/m. A more common and algebraically equivalent form of the identity (4. is the deﬁnition of endowment insurance as the superposition of a constantfaceamount term insurance with a pure endowment of the same face amount and term. n) (m) amin(Tm −x+1/m. yielding ax:n = ax:n+1/m ¨
(m) (m)
1 − Ax:n+1/m 1 1 1 1 (m) = − = (m) − (m) Ax:n+1/m − (m) m d m i d
(m)
(4.1. The unit termn life annuitydue payout is then given by 1 − v min(Tm −x+1/m. we collect a few useful identities connecting the diﬀerent types of contracts. the present value of the life annuitydue payout coincides with the annuitydue certain. n) d(m)
1 − Ax:n = d(m)
(m)
(4.7). then yields: ax:n = Ex ¨
(m)
1 − v min(Tm −x+1/m.102
CHAPTER 4. for a ﬁxed value of the random lifetime T . The ﬁrst. n) of the unit endowment insurance.13)
. this identity is
1 Ax:n = A(m)1 + A(m) x:n x:n (m)
(4. and substituting (m) Ax:n as expectation of (4. The great generality of the identity arises from the fact that.4).2
Formal Relations among Net Single Premiums
In this subsection. we appeal to the conversionformula (4.10)
The other important identity concerns the relation between expected present values of endowment insurances and life annuities. conditionally given T ≥ x) in the present value formula. In terms of net single premiums. which hold without regard to particular lifetable interpolation assumptions. Taking expectations (over values of the random variable T .11)
where recall that Ex ( · ) denotes the conditional expectation E( ·  T ≥ x).11) is d(m) ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¨
(m) (m)
(4. which we have already seen.12)
To obtain a corresponding identity relating net single premiums for life annuitiesimmediate to those of endowment insurances. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.
(k + 1)/m) within which the policy age T − x at death is to lie. Next.1).2) of the random term insurance payment (with level face value F (0) ≡ 1) is
nm−1
Ax:n = Ex v
1
Tm −x+1/m
=
k=0
v (k+1)/m
k/m px 1/m qx+k/m
(4. . for which T − x ≥ k/m.3
Formulas for Net Single Premiums
This subsection collects the expectationformulas for the insurance.4. nm − 1. d(m) i i(m) i(m) = 1+ = v −1/m d(m) m
4.1. ﬁxed m. and conditional survival function t px ) . Throughout this Section. of the present values v (k+1)/m to be paid by the insurer in the event that the policy age at death falls in [k/m.1.14)
In these formulas. The summation itself is simply the weighted sum. and endowment contracts deﬁned above. k = 0. . First. i. the expectation of the present value (4. note that payments of 1/m occur at all policy ages k/m. the same conventions as before are in force (integer x and n. we have made use of the deﬁnition m i(m) i(m) = (1 + ) ( ) d(m) m m leading to the simpliﬁcations m m = (m) + 1 . (k + 1)/m) multiplied by the probability. that this event occurs. over all indices k such that k/m < n.15)
The index k in the summation formula given here denotes the multiple of 1/m beginning the interval [k/m. . annuity. . Therefore. since the present values
. to ﬁgure the expected present value of the life annuitydue with term n. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES and d(m) ax:n + Ax:n+1/m =
(m) (m)
103
d(m) = v 1/m i(m)
(4. given in formula (4.
The corresponding life annuity which pays F (k) at each k = 0. .
nm−1
ax:n = Ex ¨
(m)
k=0
1 k/m v I[T −x≥k/m] m
1 = m
nm−1
v k/m k/m px
k=0
(4. Indeed.4
Expected Present Values for m = 1
It is clear that for the general insurance and life annuity payable at wholeyear intervals ( m = 1 ). n at which the annuitant is alive has expected present value
min(n. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
of these payments are (1/m) v k/m and the payment at k/m is made with probability k/m px . the discrete random variable [T ] for a life aged x has conditional probabilities given by P ([T ] = x + k  T ≥ x) = k px −
k+1 px
= k px · qx+k
Therefore the expected present value of the termn insurance paying F (k) at time k +1 whenever death occurs at age T between x+k and x+k +1 (with k < n) is
n−1
E v [T ]−x+1 F ([T ] − x) I[T ≤x+n] T ≥ x =
F (k) v k+1 k px qx+k
k=0
Here and from now on. . .104
CHAPTER 4.3). with payment amounts determined solely by the wholeyear age [T ] at death. .2) and (4.17)
4. the notation IB denotes the socalled indicator random variable which is equal to 1 whenever T has a value such that the condition B is satisﬁed and is equal to 0 otherwise. since the events {[T ] ≥ x} and {T ≥ x} are identical for integers x.16)
Finally the pure endowment has present value
n Ex
= Ex v n I[T −x≥n]
= v n x pn
(4. the net single premiums are given by discreterandomvariable expectation formulas based upon the present values (4.1. [T ]−x) n n
Ex
v F (k)
k=0
k
= Ex
k=0
v F (k) I[T ≥x+k]
k
=
k=0
v k F (k) k px
. for an event B depending on the random lifetime T .
. Let us work out these formulas analytically in the special case where [T ] has the Geometric(1 − γ) distribution. we obtain the useful formulas
n−1 1 Ax:n
=
k=0 n−1
v k+1 k px qx+k v k k px
k=0
(4.1. . to verify that formula (4. EXPECTED PAYMENT VALUES
105
In other words. . for the case m = 1.21)) to obtain the equivalent expression
n−1 n−1
1+
k=0
(v k+1 − v k ) k px = 1 − (1 − v)
v k k px
k=0
The reader will observe that this ﬁnal expression together with formula (4. .12). In the most important special case.18) (4. 1. . n and respective faceamounts F (k). and for convenience are taken equal to 1 for k = 0.
. n − 1 and equal to 0 otherwise.19) gives the same answer as the formula Ex (¨x:min([T ]−x+1.19) (4. 1. of the identity (4. 2. .e. n) ) .20)
ax:n ¨ Ax:n Ax:n
1
=
= Ex v n I[T −x≥n] = v n n px = =
k=0 ∞
v min(n. i.. .k+1) k px qx+k v k+1 (k px − k+1 px ) + v n n px (4. the payment of F (k) at time k is received only if the annuitant is alive at that time and so contributes expected present value equal to v k F (k) k px . to sum by parts (collecting terms according to like subscripts k of k px in formula (4. . where the nonzero faceamounts F (k) are taken as constant. . where P ([T ] = k) = P (k ≤ T < k + 1) = γ k (1 − γ) for k = 0.4. and a (ii) second. This makes the annuity equal to the superposition of pure endowments of terms k = 0. .19) gives an alternative proof.21)
k=0 n−1
Two further manipulations which will complement this circle of ideas are left as exercises for the interested reader: (i) ﬁrst. .
However the insurance.03 . corresponding to expected lifetime = γ/(1 − γ) = 32. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
with γ a ﬁxed constant parameter between 0 and 1. Then
k px qx+k
= P ([T ] = x + k  T ≥ x) = γ k (1 − γ) . This would be true if the force of mortality µ were constant at all ages.21) are benchmarks in the sense that they represent a complete solution to the problem of determining net single premiums without the need for interpolation of the lifetable survival function between integer ages. lifeannuity.375.33 years.18)(4. all of the expectations considered have been associated with the discretized random lifetime variables [T ] and Tm = [mT ]/m. However.08
which can be compared with Ax ≡ A1 = x:∞
= .106
CHAPTER 4.
4. P (T ≥ k) = e−µk .03 1 − (. In the next chapter.05)
. with f (t) = µ e−µt for t ≥ 0.05 and γ = 0. an instantaneouspayment or continuous insurance with facevalue F
. and γ = P (T = kT ≥ k) = 1 − e−µ .05)20 · = . using only the standard cohort lifetable data collected by integer attained ages.05 (1 − (.
Ax:n =
k=0
1
v k+1 γ k (1 − γ) = v(1 − γ)
1 − (γv)n 1 − γv
Thus.
The formulas (4. Ax:20 = (0. for the case of interest rate i = 0.e.503 1.97/1. as follows. i. if T were exponentially distributed with parameter µ. In that case.97. and endowmentinsurance contracts payable only at wholeyear intervals are all slightly impractical as insurance vehicles.05)20 + . First.
n px
= γn
so that
n−1
Ax:n = (γv)
1
n
.2
ContinuousTime Expectations
So far in this Chapter. we approach the calculation of net single premiums for the more realistic context of mperiodperyear insurances and life annuities..97/1. Insurance and Annuity contracts can also be deﬁned with respectively instantaneous and continuous payments.97/1.
Ax . the amount paid is F together with interest compounded from the instant of death. this means that when the actual payment is made at some later time.) As a function of the random lifetime T for the insured life initially with exact integer age x. where v = (1 + i)−1 and δ = ln(1 + i) .3) was already derived in Chapter 1. and we reproduce it here in the form Ex { g(T ) } = 1 S(x)
∞ x
g(y) f (y) dy =
0
∞
g(x + t) µ(x + t) t px dt (4. The continuous life annuity is a contract which provides continuous payments at rate 1 per unit time for duration equal to the smaller of the remaining lifetime of the annuitant or the term of n years. as a function of the exact age T at death for an annuitant initially of exact integer age x.22)
We apply this formula directly for the three choices g(y) = y−x . namely the mean residual life (also called complete life expectancy) ex = Ex (T − x) for a life aged x. The expected present values or net single premiums on a life aged x are respectively denoted Ax for a wholelife contract and 1 Ax:n for an nyear temporary insurance. is amin(T −x.4. or v y−x · I[y−x<n]
1
which respectively have the conditional Ex (·) expectations ex . Ax:n
. Here the present value of the contractual payments. CONTINUOUS CONTRACTS & RESIDUAL LIFE
107
is a contract which pays an amount F at the instant of death of the insured.2. v y−x . along with one further quantity which has been deﬁned as a continuoustime expectation of the lifetime variable T . the present value of the amount paid is F · v T −x for a wholelife insurance and F · v T −x · I[T <x+n] for an nyear term insurance. The objective of this section is to develop and interpret formulas for these continuoustime net single premiums. Recall that aK =
0 ∞ K
v I[t≤K] dt =
0
t
v t dt = (1 − v K )/δ
is the present value of a continuous payment stream of 1 per unit time of duration K units. The underlying general conditional expectation formula (1. (In practice. n) where n is the (possibly inﬁnite) duration of the life annuity.
24) (4.24) as a limit when m → ∞. Indeed.23) (4.25)
=
0
Next. we obtain two additional formulas. the integral formulas for these three cases are: ex = Ex (T − x) = Ax = Ex (v T −x ) = Ax:n = Ex v T −x I[T −x≤n]
1 ∞ 0 ∞ 0 n
t µ(x + t) t px dt v t µ(x + t) t px dt v t−x µ(x + t) t px dt
(4.26) (4. it is easy to see that the term insurance net single premiums A(m)1 = Ex v Tm −x+1/m x:n approach the continuous insurance value (4. for continuous life annuitiesdue ax and ax:n
which correspond to Ex {g(T )} for the two choices g(t) =
0 ∞
n
v t I[t≤y−x] dt or
0
v t I[t≤y−x] dt
After switching the order of the integrals and the conditional expectations. in the form Ex I[t≤T −x] = P (T ≥ x + t  T ≥ x) = t px
∞ 0 n ∞ 0 n
the resulting two equations become ax = E x ax:n = Ex v t I[t≤T −x] dt v t I[t≤T −x] dt = =
0
v t t px dt v t t px dt
(4.27)
0
As might be expected. the continuous insurance and annuity contracts have a close relationship to the corresponding contracts with m payment periods per year for large m. and evaluating the conditional expectation of an indicator as a conditional probability. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
For easy reference. A simple proof can be given because the payments at the end of the fraction
.108
CHAPTER 4.
27) can be obtained as a limit of formulas (4. i. First. and (4. leads to ex =
∞ k px k k=0
S(x + k) − S(x + k + 1) + S(x + k)
1
z
0
f (x + k + z) dz S(x + k)
(4.29) the special function g(y) = y − x. the middle term which is sandwiched in between must converge to the same limit (4.24).27) can be contrasted with a related approximate expectation for a function of the integervalued random variable [T ] (taking m = 1). as the number m of payments per year goes to inﬁnity..28) obviously converges for large m to the leftmost term. Each of the expressions in formulas (4.16) using Riemann sums. alternative general formulas are developed for the integrals by breaking the formulas down into sums of integrals over integerendpoint intervals and substituting the deﬁnition k px /S(x + k) = 1/S(x) : Ex (g(T )) = =
∞ k=0 ∞ k=0 x+k+1
g(y)
x+k 1 k px 0
f (y) dy S(x)
changing to z = y−x−k f (x + k + z) dz S(x + k) (4.30)
Either of two assumptions between integer ages can be applied to simplify the integrals:
. T − x).29)
g(x + k + z)
Substituting into (4.27).23). CONTINUOUS CONTRACTS & RESIDUAL LIFE
109
1/m of year of death are at most 1/m years later than the continuousinsurance payment at the instant of death.28) x:n Since the righthand term in the inequality (4. so that the following obvious inequalities hold: 1 1 Ax:n ≤ A(m)1 ≤ v 1/m Ax:n (4. according with the intuition that the limit as m → ∞ of the paymentstream which pays 1/m at intervals of time 1/m between 0 and Tm − x inclusive is the continuous paymentstream which pays 1 per unit time throughout the policyage interval [0.e.4. (4.
nm−1
¨ ax:n = lim ax:n = lim
m→∞
(m)
m→∞
k=0
1 k/m v k/m px = m
n
v t t px ds
0
The ﬁnal formula coincides with (4. (4.2.25).
For the continuous annuity.
It follows. exactly in the case (a) where failures are uniformly distributed within integerage intervals or approximately in case (b) when death rates are small. In case (a).30)
1
z
0
f (x + k + z) dz = S(x + k)
1
z µ(x + k) e−z µ(x+k) dz
0
which in turn is equal (after integration by parts) to −e−µ(x+k) + 1 1 1 − e−µ(x+k) ≈ µ(x + k) ≈ qx+k µ(x + k) 2 2
where the last approximate equalities hold if the death rates are small.32)
has an exact interpretation as the expected number of whole years of life remaining to a life aged x. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
(a) (Uniform distribution of failures) f (y) = f (x + k) = S(x + k) − S(x + k + 1) for all y between x + k.110
CHAPTER 4. we obtain within (4.30) becomes
1
z
0
f (x + k + z) dz = S(x + k)
1
z
0
S(x + k) − S(x + k + 1) 1 dz = qx+k S(x + k) 2
and in case (b). that ∞ ∞ 1 1 ex = (k + ) k px qx+k = (4. Return now to the general expression for Ex (g(T )). the last integral in (4. (b) (Constant force of mortality) µ(y) = µ(x + k) for x + k ≤ y < x + k + 1. in which case 1 − qx+k = exp(−µ(x + k)).31). x + k + 1 .1 below.31) k k px qx+k + 2 2 k=0 k=0 The ﬁnal summation in (4. called the curtate life expectancy ˚x = e
∞ k=0
k k px qx+k
(4. substituting g(y) = v but restricting attention to case (a):
y−x
Ax:n
1
n
x+k+1
= E v
T −x
I[T <x+n]
=
k=0 x+k
v y−x
f (x + k) dy S(x)
.2. The behavior of and comparison between complete and curtate life expectancies is explored numerically in subsection 4.
return to the formula (4.23) or (4.32) above respectively provide the complete and curtate agespeciﬁc life expectancies.33)
ax:n =
k=0 n−1 k
v t px dt =
k=0 n−1 k
t
e−(δ+µ)t dt 1 − e−(δ+µ) δ+µ
=
k=0
e−(δ+µ)k − e−(δ+µ)(k+1) = δ+µ
k=0
v k k px ·
Thus.4. in case (b) we have shown ax:n = 1 − e−(δ+µ)n 1 − e−(δ+µ) = ax:n · ¨ δ+µ δ+µ (4. Since 1−e−δ = iv.34) respectively under cases (a) and (b) relating net single premiums for continuous contracts to those of the corresponding singlepaymentperyear contracts. which do not require such interpolation.1
Numerical Calculations of Life Expectancies
Formulas (4. and δ is the force of interest. in terms respectively of survival
. More elaborate relations will be given in the next Chapter between net single premium formulas which do require interpolationassumptions for probabilities of survival to times between integer ages to formulas for m = 1.34)
In the last two paragraphs. CONTINUOUS CONTRACTS & RESIDUAL LIFE
n x+k+1
111
=
k=0 n x+k
v y−x
1 k px qx+k k=0 0
S(x + k) − S(x + k + 1) k px dy S(x + k)
n k+t
=
v
dt =
k=0
k px qx+k
v k+1
1 − e−δ vδ
where v = 1/(1+i) = e−δ .30) and (4.2.27) under case (b) to ﬁnd
n−1 k+1 n−1 k+1 1
(4. we have obtained formulas (4.
4.33) and (4. we have found in case (a) that Ax:n = A1 · (i/δ) x:n Finally.2.
31) provides the actuarial approximation for complete life expectancy in terms of lifetable data. beyond that they will be very sparse and very dependent on the particular small group(s) of aged individuals used in constructing the particular table(s). deathrates qx for all ages 78 and greater are taken to grow exponentially. According to that extrapolation. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
densities and lifetable data. Life expectancies are in any case forecasts based upon an implicit assumption of future mortality following exactly the same pattern as recent past mortality.0885). its calculation is simplest and most easily interpreted. On the other hand. an approximation which progressively becomes less valid as the force of mortality gets larger.9) of the illustrative life table data from Table 1. Figure 4. In this Section. say.0436. Formula (4.1. While life tables may be based on large cohorts of insured for ages up to the seventies and even eighties.1.112
CHAPTER 4. Thus an assertion of great accuracy for a particular method of calculation would be misplaced. This exponential behavior is approximately but not precisely compatible with a Gompertzform forceofmortality function µ(78 + t) = µ(78) ct in light of the approximate equality µ(x) ≈ qx .32) relies directly on (extrapolated) lifetable data. Lifeexpectancy calculations necessarily ignore likely changes in living conditions and medical technology which many who are currently alive will experience. Since curtate life expectancy (4. Life expectancy formulas necessarily involve life table data and/or survival distributions speciﬁed out to arbitrarily large ages. To see this. with log(qx /q78 ) = (x − 78) ln(1. the fraction of the cohort at moderate ages who will survive past 90. note that under a Gompertz survival model. (c − 1)/ ln c = 1. we illustrate these formulas using the Illustrative simulated and extrapolated lifetable data of Table 1. µ(x) = Bcx . so a reasonable extrapolation of a wellestablished table out to age 80 or so may give suﬃciently accurate lifeexpectancy values at ages not exceeding 80. is extremely small.0885 in our setting. based upon interpolationassumption (i) (Uniform mortality within year of age).1
. All of the numerical lifeexpectancy calculations produced for the Figure of this Section are based on the extrapolation (2. qx = 1 − exp −Bcx c−1 ln c
and with c = 1.
as plotted points. the agespeciﬁc curtate life expectancies for integer ages x = 0.11). ﬁnd (a) the expected remaining lifetime for an individual aged 20.2). with S(t) = exp(−0. down to 0.325).03 for t ≥ 50. . the large life expectancies shown are comparable to actual US male mortality circa 1959.4. and they are not plotted. Under this assumption.1 which is most startling to the intuition is the large expected numbers of additional birthdays for individuals of advanced ages. In these integrals.
. (i) Weibull(. 78. the exact formula for complete life expectancy becomes ∞ qx+k + px+k ln(px+k ) ex − ˚x = e k px − ln(px+k ) k=0 The complete life expectancies calculated from this formula were found to exceed the curtate life expectancy by amounts ranging from 0. . and/or numerical integrations via calculators or software. (iii) Piecewise exponential with force of mortality given the constant value µt = 0. For each of the following three lifetime distributions.00634.
4.493 at ages 40 and below. gamma function values. (ii) Lognormal(log(50). Using formula (4. EXERCISE SET 4
113
presents. we calculated for comparison the complete life expectancy at all (realnumber) ages. Moreover.3. .00634 t1. 0. tables of the normal distribution function Φ(x).348 at age 99.3
Exercise Set 4
(1). mortality within year of age (0 < t < 1) is t px = (px )t . and µt = 0. and (b) 7/12 q40 /q40 . so would be still larger today. you should be prepared to use integrations by parts. Since the complete life expectancy at each age is larger than the curtate by exactly 1/2 under interpolation assumption (a). 1.485 at age 78 and 0.015 for 20 < t ≤ 50.3252 ). The aspect of Figure 4. Thus there is essentially no new information in the calculated complete life expectancies. 1. with S(t) = 1−Φ((log(t)−log(50))/0. under assumption (b) of piecewiseconstant force of mortality within years of age. by formula (3.2 ).31) and interpolation assumption (b). .
by age
70 •••• 60
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
50
••
Curtate Life Expectancy
••
••
••
••
40
••
••
••
••
••
30
••
••
••
••
••
••
20
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
10
••
•••
•••
•••
•• 80
0
20
40 Age in years
60
Figure 4.114
CHAPTER 4. with agespeciﬁc deathrates qx extrapolated as indicated in formula (2. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
Expected number of additional whole years of life. calculated e from the simulated illustrative life table data of Table 1.9).1.
.1: Curtate life expectancy ˚x as a function of age.
1
(5). . payable at the end of
. and is certain to die within this time.3.06. . then what is the expected total present value of all the premiums he pays before his death ? (4). .025 Assume the ﬁxed interest rate r = 0.05 e−0.. his age is x and for k = 0. (b) Find the net single premium for the term and endowment insurances Ax:20 and Ax:30 . If the individual in Problem 2 pays a life insurance premium P at the beginning of each remaining year of his life (including this one).05 s . EXERCISE SET 4
115
(2). with respect to the constant eﬀective interest rate r = 0.4. of an insurance payment of $1000 to be made at the instant of death of an individual who has just turned 40 and whose remaining lifetime T − 40 = S is a continuous random variable with density f (s) = 0. (a) Find the net single wholelife insurance premium Ax for this individual. s > 0. Show that the expected present value bx of an insurance of 1 payable at the beginning of the year of death (or equivalently.e. Should this answer be larger or smaller than the answer in (a) ? (3). (a) Find the expected present value.07. . Suppose that an individual has equal probability of dying within each of the next 40 years. i. Show that the expected whole number of years of remaining life for a life aged x is given by
ω−x−1
cx = E([T ] − x  T ≥ x) =
k k px qx+k
k=0
and prove that this quantity as a function of integer age x satisﬁes the recursion equation cx = px (1 + cx+1 ) (6). (b) Find the expected present value of the insurance payment in (a) if the insurer is allowed to delay the payment to the end of the year in which the individual dies. 39 k px − k+1 px = 0. 1.
e
. (b) the Balducci assumption (of linearity of 1/S(t)) within 5year age intervals. e
(11).35) above. Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all ages by the force of mortality .
Then
and (b) ﬁnd ˚50 .0.002 for 1 ≤ t < 5 . EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
the year of death along with interest from the beginning of that same year) satisﬁes the recursion relation (4. (10).0. (8). Find (a) ˚75 and (b) the probability of an individual aged 70 in e this lifetable population dying between ages 72. Prove the identity (4. Suppose that a population has survival probabilities governed at all ages by the force of mortality for 0 ≤ t < 1 .0 and 83. and (b) ﬁnd ˚30 . (7). For the next two problems.0 and 78.1 for 10 ≤ t < 30 µt = 3/t for 30 ≤ t
Then (a) ﬁnd 30 p20 = the probability that an individual aged 20 survives for at least 30 more years.01 for 0 ≤ t < 10 .001 for 5 ≤ t < 20 µt = .01 . and l85 = 0.0001 · t for 40 ≤ t (a) ﬁnd
30 p10 . (9).9) algebraically. and that the distribution of deathtimes within 5year age intervals is uniform. l75 = 7000.004 for 20 ≤ t < 40 . if the assumption of uniform deathtimes within 5year intervals is replaced by: (a) an assumption of constant force of mortality within 5year ageintervals. l80 = 3000. 000. Find the probability of an individual aged 72 in this lifetable population dying between ages 75.116
CHAPTER 4. consider a cohort lifetable population for which you know only that l70 = 10.
4.3. EXERCISE SET 4
117
(12). Assuming the same force of mortality as in the previous problem, ﬁnd ˚70 and A60 if i = 0.09. e (13). The force of mortality for impaired lives is three times the standard force of mortality at all ages. The standard rates qx of mortality at ages 95, 96, and 97 are respectively 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5 . What is the probability that an impaired life age 95 will live to age 98 ? (14). You are given a survival function S(x) = (10 − x)2 /100 , 0 ≤ x ≤ 10. (a) Calculate the average number of future years of life for an individual who survives to age 1. (b) Calculate the diﬀerence between the force of mortality at age 1, and the probability that a life aged 1 dies before age 2. (15). An nyear term life insurance policy to a life aged x provides that if the insured dies within the nyear period an annuitycertain of yearly payments of 10 will be paid to the beneﬁciary, with the ﬁrst annuity payment made on the policyanniversary following death, and the last payment made on the N th policy anniversary. Here 1 < n ≤ N are ﬁxed integers. If B(x, n, N ) denotes the net single premium (= expected present value) for this policy, and if mortality follows the law lx = C(ω − x)/ω for some terminal integer age ω and constant C, then ﬁnd a simpliﬁed expression for B(x, n, N ) in terms of interestrate functions, ω, and the integers x, n, N . Assume x + n ≤ ω. (16). The father of a newborn child purchases an endowment and insurance contract with the following combination of beneﬁts. The child is to receive $100, 000 for college at her 18th birthday if she lives that long and $500, 000 at her 60th birthday if she lives that long, and the father as beneﬁciary is to receive $200, 000 at the end of the year of the child’s death if the child dies before age 18. Find expressions, both in actuarial notations and in terms of v = 1/(1 + i) and of the survival probabilities k p0 for the child, for the net single premium for this contract.
118
CHAPTER 4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
4.4
Worked Examples
Example 1. Toy LifeTable (assuming uniform failures) Consider the following lifetable with only six equallyspaced ages. (That is, assume l6 = 0.) Assume that the rate of interest i = .09, so that v = 1/(1 + i) = 0.9174 and (1 − e−δ )/δ = (1 − v)/δ = 0.9582. x 0 1 2 3 4 5 Agerange 0 1 2 3 4 5 – – – – – – 0.99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 lx 1000 940 860 760 640 500 dx 60 80 100 120 140 500 ex 4.2 3.436 2.709 2.0 1.281 0.5 Ax 0.704 0.749 0.795 0.844 0.896 0.958
Using the data in this Table, and interest rate i = .09, we begin by calculating the expected present values for simple contracts for term insurance, annuity, and endowment. First, for a life aged 0, a term insurance with payoﬀ amount $1000 to age 3 has present value given by formula (4.18) as
1 1000 A0:3 = 1000 0.917
60 80 100 + (0.917)2 + (0.917)3 1000 1000 1000
= 199.60
Second, for a life aged 2, a term annuitydue of $700 per year up to age 5 has present value computed from (4.19) to be 700 a2:3 = 700 ¨ 1 + 0.917 640 760 + (0.917)2 860 860 = 1705.98
For the same life aged 2, the 3year Endowment for $700 has present value
1 700 A0:3 = 700 · (0.9174)3
500 = 314.26 860
Thus we can also calculate (for the life aged 2) the present value of the 3year annuityimmediate of $700 per year as
1 700 · a2:3 − 1 + A0:3 ¨
= 1705.98 − 700 + 314.26 = 1320.24
4.4. WORKED EXAMPLES
119
We next apply and interpret the formulas of Section 4.2, together with the observation that
j px
· qx+j =
lx+j dx+j dx+j · = lx lx+j lx
to show how the last two columns of the Table were computed. In particular, by (4.31) e2 = 120 140 500 1 1900 100 ·0+ ·1+ ·2+ ·3+ = + 0.5 = 2.709 860 860 860 860 2 860
5−x Moreover: observe that cx = k=0 k k px qx+k satisﬁes the “recursion equation” cx = px (1 + cx+1 ) (cf. Exercise 5 above), with c5 = 0, from which the ex column is easily computed by: ex = cx + 0.5.
Now apply the present value formula for conitunous insurance to ﬁnd
5−x
Ax =
k=0
1 − e−δ = 0.9582 p x qx v k δ
k
5−x k p x qx k=0
v k = 0.9582 bx
where bx is the expected present value of an insurance of 1 payable at the beginning of the year of death (so that Ax = v bx ) and satisﬁes b5 = 1 together with the recursionrelation
5−x
bx =
k=0
k p x qx
v k = px v bx+1 + qx
(4.35)
(Proof of this recursion is Exercise 6 above.) Example 2. Find a simpliﬁed expression in terms of actuarial exprected present value notations for the net single premium of an insurance on a life aged x, which pays F (k) = C ¨n−k if death occurs at any exact ages a between x + k and x + k + 1, for k = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1, and interpret the result. Let us begin with the interpretation: the beneﬁciary receives at the end of the year of death a lumpsum equal in present value to a payment stream of $C annually beginning at the end of the year of death and terminating at the end of the nth policy year. This payment stream, if superposed upon
. would result in a certain payment of $C at the end of policy years 1. Thus the expected present value in this example is given by C an − C ax:n (4. by substituting expression (4. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
an nyear life annuityimmediate with annual payments $C. . .36). n. . By formula (4. 2. the net single premium in the example is equal to
n−1 n−1
v
k=0
k+1
k px qx+k
C an−k+1 = C ¨
k=0
v k+1 k px qx+k
1 − v n−k d
C = d C = d C = d
n−1
n−1
v
k=0
k+1
k px qx+k
−v
n+1 k=0
( k px −
k+1 px )
1 Ax:n − v n+1 (1 − n px )
Ax:n − v n n px − v n+1 (1 − n px )
and ﬁnally.120
CHAPTER 4. we have C 1 − d ax:n − (1 − v) v n n px − v n+1 ¨ d C = 1 − d (1 + ax:n − v n n px ) − d v n n px − v n+1 d 1 − vn C − ax:n v − d ax:n − v n+1 = C = d i = C {an − ax:n } So the analytically derived answer agrees with the one intuitively arrived at in formula (4.14) with m = 1 for Ax:n .36)
Next we rework this example purely in terms of analytical formulas.36).
.
5. 100
(m) Ax − A(m)1 x:n
= v n n px · Ax+n
p. 102 d(m) ax:n + Ax:n = 1 ¨ p.4. 100
Endowment
1 Ax:n =
n Ex
= v n n px p. n) d(m)
1 − Ax:n = d(m)
(m)
p. 101
1 Ax:n = A(m)1 + A(m) x:n = A(m)1 +n Ex x:n x:n
(m)
p. 102
nm−1 (m) (m)
Ax:n = Ex v
1
Tm −x+1/m
=
k=0
v (k+1)/m
k/m px 1/m qx+k/m
p. 98 Term life annuity ax:n = ax:n+1/m − 1/m ¨
(m) (m)
p. 97
P (Tm = x +
k  T ≥ x) = m
k/m px
−
(k+1)/m px
=
k/m px
·
1/m qx+k/m
p.5
Useful Formulas from Chapter 4
Tm = [T m]/m p. 102
(m)
ax:n = Ex ¨
1 − v min(Tm −x+1/m. 103
. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 4
121
4.
105
1 Ax:n = Ex v n I[T −x≥n]
= v n n px p. 105
n−1
Ax:n =
k=0
v k+1 (k px − k+1 px ) + v n n px p. 105
n−1
ax:n = ¨
k=0
v k k px p.122
CHAPTER 4. 105
. EXPECTED PRESENT VALUES OF PAYMENTS
n−1
Ax:n =
k=0
1
v k+1 k px qx+k p.
Chapter 5 Premium Calculation
This Chapter treats the most important topics related to the calculation of (risk) premiums for realistic insurance and annuity contracts. One topic covered more rigorously here than elsewhere is the calculusbased and numerical comparison between premiums under these slightly different interpolation assumptions. when there are multiple payments per year. Finally.
123
. we discuss single and level premium calculation for insurance contracts where the death beneﬁt is modiﬁed by (fractional) premium amounts. or annuity contract. Next we introduce the idea of calculating level premiums. under each of three standard assumptions on interpolation of the survival function between integer ages. Here the issue is ﬁrst of all to write an exact balance equation. endowment. justifying the standard use of the simplest of the interpolation assumptions. and only then to approximate and obtain the usual formulas. setting up equations balancing the stream of level premium payments coming in to an insurer with the payout under an insurance. then load it appropriately to take account of administrative expenses and the cushion required for insurancecompany proﬁtability. that deaths occur uniformly within whole years of attained age. We begin by considering at length net single premium formulas for insurance and annuities. either as refunds or as amounts still due.
1
Dependence Between Integer & Fractional Ages at Death
One of the clearest ways to distinguish the three interpolation assumptions is through the probabilistic relationship they impose between the greatest
. it usually makes relatively little diﬀerence which of these is chosen. to the case where n is assumed only to be an integer multiple of 1/m.9) gives it under that assumption as µ(x + t) = − qx d ln S(x + t) = dt 1 − (1 − t) qx
Thus the inclusion of the Balducci assumption here is for completeness only. we adopt a further restriction throughout this Section. we must now make some interpolation assumptions about withinyear survival in order to do this. However.1
mPayment Net Single Premiums
The objective in this section is to relate the formulas for net single premiums for life insurance.1. life annuities. There is in principle no reason why all of the formulas cannot be extended. one by one. and we consider the three main assumptions previously introduced: piecewise uniform failure distribution (constant failure density within each year). of the three assumptions. Of course. but the formulas are less simple that way. since it is a recurring topic for examination questions. namely that the duration n of the life insurance or annuity is an integer even though m > 1. As a practical matter. In order to display simple formulas. because of the remark that the force of mortality it induces within years is actually decreasing (the reciprocal of a linear function with positive slope). piecewise exponential failure distribution (constant force of mortality within each year). and Balducci assumption.124
CHAPTER 5.
5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
5. However. Balducci’s is least important practically. pure endowments and endowment insurances in the case where there are multiple payment periods per year to the case where there is just one. since formula (3. and emphasize closedform relationships between the net single premiums with and without multiple payments per year. we do not give separate net single premium formulas for the Balducci case. as we have seen in exercises and will illustrate further in analytical approximations and numerical tabulations.
2)
where we have used the fact that T − [T ] < 1 with certainty.1) for general t by the corresponding formula at t = 1 : P ( T − [T ] ≤ t  [T ] = x + k) =
t qx+k
qx+k
(5. x are integers and 0 ≤ t < 1. we know that
t qx+k
= 1 − t px+k = 1 − e−µ(x+k) t
and it is no longer true that fractional and attained ages at death are independent except in the very special (completely artiﬁcial) case where µ(x+k) has the same constant value µ for all x. from which formula (5. Since the conditional probability does not involve the age at death.2) that P ( T − [T ] ≤ t  [T ] = x + k) = 1 − e−µt 1 − e−µ
. In case (i) from Section 3.2) immediately implies P ( T − [T ] ≤ t  [T ] = x + k) = t In other words.5. T − [T ] < t  T ≥ x) =
x+k
f (y) dy = t qx+k k px (5.1) S(x)
where k. nonnegativeintegervalued random variable. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS
125
integer [T ] or attained integer age at death and the fractional age T − [T ] at death.2. 1. From this we deduce the following formula (for k ≥ 0) by dividing the formula (5. 1). the fractional age at death is always uniformly distributed between 0. given complete information about the age at death. we say under the interpolation assumption (i) that the fractional age and wholeyear age at death are independent as random variables. with the density f assumed piecewise constant. In the latter case. The ﬁrst of these is a discrete. where T is an exponential random variable. we already know that t qx+k = t qx+k . In case (ii). with piecewise constant force of mortality.1. the dependence between these random variables can be summarized through the calculated joint probability
x+k+t
P ([T ] = x + k. In general. and the second is a continuous random variable with a density on the timeinterval [0. k. it is easy to check from (5.
and k + m will index the possible values for the last multiple Tm − x of 1/m year of the policy age at death. j x. formula (3. under the Balducci assumption. the formula (4.2) that P ( T − [T ] ≤ t  [T ] = x + k) =
5. according to (5. because the double sum over j and k factors into the product of a sum of terms depending only on j and one depending only on k : n−1 m−1 1 A(m)1 = v k+(j+1)/m qx+k k px x:n m k=0 j=0
.15) for insurance net single premium is simpler than (4. because
j/m px+k
−
(j+1)/m px+k
=
1 qx+k m
Here and throughout the rest of this and the following two subsections. which leads to a special formula for (5.126
CHAPTER 5.1). The formula for net single insurance premium becomes especially simple when n is an integer. j are integers and 0 ≤ j < m. by P ([T ] = x + k  T ≥ x) = (1 − e−µ )(e−µ )k In case (iii). 1).16) for life annuities.8) says that 1−t qx+t = (1 − t) qx . The formula comes from the calculation px+k (1 − t) qx+k = (1−t) qx+k+t = 1 − t px+k leading to
t qx+k
= 1 − t px+k = 1 −
px+k t qx+k = 1 − (1 − t) qx+k 1 − (1 − t) qx+k t 1 − (1 − t) qx+k
Thus Balducci implies via (5. while [T ] has the Geometric(1 − e−µ ) distribution given.2
Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (i)
In this setting.1. PREMIUM CALCULATION
In that case.2) but not a conclusion of conditional independence. T − [T ] is indeed independent of [T ] and has a truncated exponential distribution on [0. k.
we obtain the formula for net single premium of a temporary lifeannuity due: 1 − Ax:n 1 i 1 = (m) 1 − (m) Ax:n − n px v n ax:n = ¨ (m) d d i Reexpressing this formula in terms of annuities on the righthand side. Recall that in the case of integer n the net single premium for a pure nyear endowment does not depend upon m and is given by
1 Ax:n = n px
vn
Thus we continue by displaying the net single premium for an endowment insurance. but does not bear such a simple relation to the onepaymentperyear net single premium.5)
The last formula has the form that the lifeannuity due with m payments per year is a weighted linear combination of the lifeannuity due with a single payment per year.3) = (m) Ax:n (m) d i The corresponding formula for the case of noninteger n can clearly be written down in a similar way. using ax:n = d−1 (1 − v n n px − A1 ).1. immediately yields ¨ x:n
(m) (m)
ax:n = ¨
(m)
di a ¨ + (m) i(m) x:n d
1−
i i(m)
1 − v n n px d(m)
(5. the nyear pure endowment. related in the mpaymentperiodper year case to the formula with single endofyear payments:
1 Ax:n = A(m)1 + Ax:n = x:n (m)
i i(m)
A 1 + n px v n x:n
(5. where the weights and constant depend only on interest rates and m but not on survival probabilities: ax:n ¨
(m)
= α(m) ax:n − β(m) (1 − n px v n ) ¨ 1 = α(m) ax:n − β(m) + β(m) Ax:n ¨
(5.
1 = Ax:n v −1+1/m
The formulas for life annuities should not be rederived in this setting but rather obtained using the general identity connecting endowment insurances with life annuities.4)
As a result of (4.5.6)
.11). and a constant. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS
n−1
127
(m)
=
k=0
v
k+1
qx+k k px
v −1+1/m m
m−1
¨ v j/m = A1 v −1+1/m a1 x:n
j=0
1−v i 1 (5.
3).2537 1.2586 1. β(m) are given by di α(m) = (m) (m) .0001 0.4713 1.0004 0. β(m) = m−1 2m
Equations (5.3450 1.08 α(m) β(m) 0. Note that α(1) = 1.4697 1. and (5.3406 1.4665 1.0001 0.3377 1.3435 1.3902 1.3478 1.0005 0.03 α(m) β(m) 0.0001 0.2598 1.07 α(m) β(m) 0.0005 0.6) are useful because they summarize concisely the modiﬁcation needed for onepaymentperyear formulas (which used only lifetable and interestraterelated quantities) to accommodate multiple paymentperiods per year.0003 0. m ≥ 1 .0002 0.128
CHAPTER 5.3858 1.4247 1. Let us specialize them to cases where either
.10 α(m) β(m) 1.0004 0.3827 1.5).0003 0. α(m) = 1 .2622 1. reﬂecting that ax:n coincides ¨ with ax:n by deﬁnition when m = 1.0006 0.0008 0.4633 m= 2 3 4 6 12
Here the interestrate related constants α(m). β(1) = 0. (5. The limiting case for i = 0 is given ¨ in Exercises 6 and 7: for i = 0 .0001 0.0004 0. d i i − i(m) β(m) = (m) (m) d i
Their values for some practically interesting values of m.4215 1.3796 1.4294 1.0004 0.4278 1.4745 1.1.4325 1.0007 0. PREMIUM CALCULATION Table 5.1: Values of α(m).0002 0.0002 0. i i 0.0001 0.0007 0.0004 0.0007 0. β(m) for Selected m.0005 0.0002 0.2562 1. i are given in (m) Table 5.05 α(m) β(m) 0.0002 0.3873 1.
the payments are taken to be instantaneous. but where m is taken to go to ∞. δ δ2 Recall also that the instantaneouspayment notations replace the superscripts (m) by an overbar.16)
n−1 m−1
ax:n ¨
(m)
=
k=0 j=0 n−1
1 k+j/m v m
m−1
j/m px+k k px n−1
(5. so that the limits of the constants α(m).5.
ax = α(m) ax − β(m) ¨(m) ¨
Next consider the case where n is again allowed to be ﬁnite. Consider ﬁrst the case where the insurances and lifeannuities are wholelife. the number of paymentperiods m. where the force of mortality is constant within single years of age. β(m) are respectively i−δ di β(∞) = α(∞) = 2 . ax:n = 2 ax:n − δ δ δ2
5. with n = ∞. or in other words.
k+j/m px
= k px e−jµx+k /m
Again restrict attention to the case where n is a positive integer. the formula for lifeannuity net single premium is simpler than the one for insurance. k ≥ 0.7) v k k px
k=0
=
k=0
v k k px
j=0
1 (ve−µx+k )j/m = m
1 − vpx+k m(1 − (vpx+k )1/m )
. The net single premium formulas for insurance and life annuity due reduce to
(m) Ax =
i i(m)
Ax
.3
Net Single Premium Formulas — Case (ii)
In this setting. Recall that failures continue to be assumed uniformly distributed within years of age. The singlepremium formulas for instantaneouspayment insurance and lifeannuities due become: i 1 di i−δ 1 ¨ (1 − v n n px ) Ax:n = Ax:n . or both approach ∞. Recall that both i(m) and d(m) tend in the limit to the forceofinterest δ.1.1. and calculate from ﬁrst principles (as in 4. because for integers j. MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS
129
the duration n.
we apply the ﬁrstorder Taylor series approximation about 0 for formula (5. In order to compare this formula with equation (5. The ﬁrstorder Taylorseries approximation about z = 1 for the function (1 − v 1/m )/(1 − (vz)1/m ) is 1 − v 1/m v 1/m (1 − v 1/m ) z −1+1/m ≈ 1 − (1 − z) 1 − (vz)1/m m (1 − (vz)1/m )2 v 1/m 1−z = 1 − (1 − z) = 1 − (m) 1/m ) m (1 − v i
z=1
Evaluating this Taylorseries approximation at z = px+k = 1 − qx+k then yields 1 − v 1/m qx+k ≈ 1 − (m) 1/m 1 − (vpx+k ) i Substituting this ﬁnal approximate expression into equation (5. px+k = e−µx+k .S. PREMIUM CALCULATION
where we have used the fact that when force of mortality is constant within years.7).8)
v k k px
k=0
where in the last line we have applied the identity m(1 − v 1/m ) = d(m) and discarded a quadratic term in qx+k within the large curly bracket. life tables.
. (These annual deathrates qx+k are actually small over a large range of ages for U.) The ﬁnal expression in (5. we ﬁnd for piecewiseconstant force of mortality which is assumed small
n−1
ax:n ¨
(m)
≈ ≈
v k k px
k=0 n−1
1 − vpx+k (1 − qx+k /i(m) ) m(1 − v 1/m ) 1 d(m) 1 − vpx+k − 1−v qx+k i(m) (5.7) will be Taylorapproximated in a slightly modiﬁed form: the numerator and denominator are both multiplied by the factor 1 − v 1/m .5) established under the assumption of uniform distribution of deaths within years of policy age. and the term (1 − v 1/m )/(1 − (vpx+k )1/m ) will be analyzed ﬁrst.130
CHAPTER 5.7) with respect to the deathrates qx+k inside the denominatorexpression 1 − (vpx+k )1/m = 1 − (v − vqx+k )1/m . with numerator and denominator both multiplied by 1 − v 1/m .
it follows from the result of this section that all of the formulas derived in the previous section for case (i) can be used as approximate formulas (to ﬁrst order in the deathrates qx+k ) also in case (ii). Indeed.10)
and third.12)
i di 1 ax:n + (m) (1 − v n n px ) (1 − (m) ) ¨ d(m) i(m) d i
The proof is completed by remarking that (5. The interest of this result is that (5.1. the pure endowment single premium Ax:n does not depend upon m. and 1 since in the case of integer n.9)
Second. observe that (5. Since formulas for the insurance and life annuity net single premiums can each be used to obtain the other when there are m payments per year.11) into expression (5. while we are presently operating under the assumption of piecewiseconstant hazards (Case ii).9) to reexpress the latter as 1 d(m) = 1 − v n n px − i i(m) (1 − v n n px − d ax:n ) ¨ (5. apply the general formula for ax:n as a sum to check the identity ¨
n−1
ax:n = ¨
k=0
v k k px = 1 − v n n px + ax:n
(5.5) and (5.
.8) is precisely equal to the righthand side of formula (5.6). we now prove that the ﬁnal expression (5.6) in the previous subsection.10) and (5.12) coincides with expression (5. The proof of our assertion requires us to apply simple identities in several steps.8) is equal by deﬁnition to 1 d(m) ax:n − ax:n − v −1 ¨ 1−v 1 A i(m) x:n (5.6) of the previous subsection are in the present setting still valid as approximate formulas.5.11)
Substitute the identities (5.6) applied to piecewiseuniform mortality (Case (i)). MPAYMENT NET SINGLE PREMIUMS
131
We are now close to our ﬁnal objective: proving that the formulas (5. recall the identity ax:n = ¨ 1 d 1 − A 1 − v n n px x:n (5. First.
up to linear terms in qx+k . and (iii) respectively. even roughly. Accordingly. The following three formulas are exactly valid under the interpolation assumptions of cases (i). at ages larger than around 55. To prove (5. However. Recall that Balducci’s assumption was previously faulted both for complexity of premium formulas and lack of realism. PREMIUM CALCULATION
5.13) is an immediate consequence of the formula A(m)1 = x:n i A1 / i(m) derived in the previous section.14). some care is needed in interpreting the result.14)
(m)1 A(m)1 = v k+1 k px (1 − px+k ) x:k+1 − A x:k m−1
1/m
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
= v
k+1
k px qx+k j=0
px+k v −j/m m (1 − j+1 qx+k ) (1 − m
j m
qx+k ) (5. The approximation was derived as a ﬁrstorder Taylor series. While this may be roughly valid at ages 15 to 50.and interest.) We ﬁrst recall the formulas for cases (i) and (ii). (Here and throughout this Section. it is interesting to compare numerically.13) (5.132
CHAPTER 5. this is deﬁnitely not the case. the individual terms A(m)1 − A(m)1 x:k+1 x:k which arise as summands under the diﬀerent interpolation assumptions.2
Approximate Formulas via Case(i)
The previous Section developed a Taylorseries justiﬁcation for using the very convenient netsinglepremium formulas derived in case (i) (of uniform distribution of deaths within whole years of age) to approximate the corresponding formulas in case (ii) (constant force of mortality within whole years of age.rates. and for completeness supply also the formula for case (iii) (the Balducci interpolation assumption). under several assumed death. because of its consequence that the force of mortality decreases within whole years of age. the yearbyyear deathrates qx+k must be small compared to the nominal rate of interest i(m) . (ii). because for this step of the approximation to be accurate. at least in developed countries. k is an integer.15)
Formula (5. assume (ii) and x:n calculate from ﬁrst principles and the identities v −1/m = 1 + i(m) /m and
.
(m)1 A(m)1 = x:k+1 − A x:k
i i(m)
v k+1 k px · qx+k i + qx+k 1 + (i(m) /m) − px+k
1/m
(5.
13) because these ratios were equal to 1 to three decimal places except in the following cases: the ratio was 1.14)/(5.5.15) are progressively more complicated.15) is established by calculating ﬁrst
j/m px+k
=
px+k px+k = 1 − 1−j/m qx+k+j/m 1 − m−j qx+k m
Then the lefthand side of (5. m ≥ 4. We do not tabulate the results for the ratios (5. (5.12 and q = 0. the ratios both of formulas (5.002 only in the cases where q = i = 0.15 and q was .15.15) is equal to
m−1
j=0
v k+(j+1)/m k px ( j/m px+k −
m−1 k px qx+k
(j+1)/m px+k )
= v
k+1
v
−1+1/m j=0
px+k v j/m m (1 − m−j qx+k ) (1 − m
m−j−1 qx+k ) m
which is seen to be equal to the righthand side of (5. and it would be very desirable to stop with the ﬁrst one if the choice of interpolation assumption actually made no diﬀerence.05 to 0.13). and (5.15 or when i was .
. achieving a value of 1. for the Balducci case. (5.15)/(5. Formulas (5. interestrates i. and paymentperiodsperyear m. APPROXIMATE FORMULAS VIA CASE(I) px+k = exp(−µx+k ) that
m−1
133
j=0
v k+(j+1)/m k px ( j/m px+k −
k px
(j+1)/m px+k ) m−1
= v
k+1
v
−1+1/m
(1 − e
−µx+k /m
)
j=0
(v e−µx+k )j/m
= v k+1 k px (1 − e−µx+k /m ) = v k+1 k px (1 − e−µx+k /m )
1 − v px+k v −1 · −1/m 1 − (vpx+k )1/m v i + qx+k 1 + i(m) /m − px+k
1/m
Finally.13) were calculated for a range of possible deathrates q = qx+k .13) and of (5.001 when i ranged from 0. In preparing the following Table.12 or .14)/(5.15) after the change of summationindex j = m − j − 1.2.14).12.
14)/(5. That is why.3
Net Level (Risk) Premiums
The general principle previously enunciated regarding equivalence of two different (certain) paymentstreams if their present values are equal. i and exactly equal to 1 when either of these parameters is 0.15) divided by (5.
5. This also can be partially justiﬁed through the observation (a small exercise for the reader) that the ratio of the righthand sides of formulas (5. but also showing that for a large range of ages and interest rates it also gives correct answers within 1 or 2 %. with the deathrate much less important within the broad range of values commonly encountered.15) agrees extremely closely with the usual actuarial (case (i)) formula (5. before allowing for administrative expenses and the ‘loading’ or cushion which an insurer needs to maintain a very tiny probability of going bankrupt after starting with a large but ﬁxed fund of reserve
.13).15) divided by (5. Here also there are many cases where the Balducci formula (5. Then the Law of Large Numbers has the interpretation that the actual random net payout minus income for the aggregate of the policies per policy is with very high probability very close (percentagewise) to the mathematical expectation of the diﬀerence between the singlepolicy payout and income. showing in part why the Balducci assumption is not much used in practice. (ii) was by no means guaranteed by the previous Taylor series calculation.13). PREMIUM CALCULATION
Such remarkable correspondence between the net single premium formulas in cases (i).134
CHAPTER 5. and is made only somewhat less surprising by the remark that the ratio of formulas (5.13) are controlled by the parameter m and the interest rate. The Table shows a bit more variety in the ratios of (5. This deﬁnition makes sense if each such equivalence is regarded as the matching of random income and payout for the insurer with respect to each of a large number of independent (and identical) policies. from a purerisk perspective.13) are identical in either of the two limiting cases where i = 0 or where qx+k = 0. The Table shows that the deviations from 1 of the ratio (5.13) is smooth in both parameters qx+k .15)/(5. has the following extension to the case of uncertain (timeofdeathdependent) payment streams: two such payment streams are equivalent (in the sense of having equal ‘risk premiums’) if their expected present values are equal.
15 .03 .03 .034 1.15 .004 1.036 1.12 .15)/(5.015 1.012 1.002 .07 .02 .007 1.006 1.008 1.3.05 .002 1.009 1.049 1.029 1.5.15 i .017 1.073 1.010 1.006 1.15 .006 .06 .036 1.012 1.003 1.06 .07 .024 1.036 1.002 .008 1.005 1.037 1.010 1.015 1.10 .02 .10 .15 .049 1.06 .025 1.075 m= 4 1.025 1.049 1.05 .007 1.002 .029 1.006 .07 .06 .15 .013 1.051 1.025 1.03 .008 1.010 1.059 1.10 .006 .008 1.12 .014 1.07 .06 .050 1.12 .12 .025 1.002 .03 .02 .012 1.072 1.024 1.12 .005 1.15 .072 1.011 1.002 .027 1.003 1.036 1.008 1.02 .05 .07 .016
135
.025 1.15 .012 1.006 1.02 .058 1.058 1.015 1.034 1.017 1.035 1.002 .032 1.013 1.035 1.024 1.02 .061 1.011 1.015 1.012 1.018 1.004 1.2: Ratios of Values (5.006 .019 1.007 1.03 .15 .10 .002 1.008 1.006 1.006 .15 .006 .05 .012 1.039 m= 12 1.003 1.15 m= 2 1. NET LEVEL PREMIUMS Table 5.074 1.015 1.06 .029 1.13) qx+k .017 1.05 .030 1.013 1.004 1.026 1.059 1.10 .
until death or expiration of term. where the number of payment periods per year for the premium agrees with that for the insurance. according to the speciﬁed payment pattern.4
Beneﬁts Involving Fractional Premiums
The general principle for calculating risk premiums sets up a balance between expected payout by an insurer and expected payment stream received as premiums. or (b) refund a prorata share of the premium for
. or endowment contract proceeds divided by the expected present value of a unit amount paid regularly. then the balance equation becomes (m) ¨ A1 = P · m ax:n x:n for which the solution P is called the level risk premium for a term insurance. If the insurance purchased pays only at the end of the year of death. PREMIUM CALCULATION
capital. and pays out according to the terms of the insurance product purchased. In the latter case. the insurer receives a lifeannuity due with level premium P . this expected diﬀerence should be set equal to 0 in ﬁguring premiums. The resulting rule for calculation of the premium amount P which must multiply the unit amount in a speciﬁed payment pattern is as follows: P = Expected present value of life insurance. annuity. The reader should distinguish this premium from the level premium payable m times yearly for an insurance which pays at the end of the (1/m)th year of death. the balance equation is A(m)1 = P · m ax:n ¨ x:n
(m)
In standard actuarial notations for premiums. In the simplest case of level payment streams. Two other applications of the balancingequation principle can be made in calculating level premiums for insurances which either (a) deduct the additional premium payments for the remainder of the year of death from the insurance proceeds.
5. level premiums are annualized (which would result in the removal of a factor m from the righthand sides of the last two equations).136
CHAPTER 5. but the premium payments are made m times per year. say a term insurance. not given here.
4. Under the interpolation ¨ assumption of case (i).1 to the insurance and annuity net single premiums with only one payment period per year. is equal to
n−1 m−1
F (0) A
(m)1
x:n
−
k=0 j=0
v k+(j+1)/m k+j/m px ·
1/m qx+k+j/m
(m − 1 − j) P
and the exact balance equation is obtained by setting this equal to the ex(m) pected amount paid in. the expected amount paid out by the insurer. First in case (a). this balance equation becomes F (0) A
(m)1
x:n
− Ax:n
1
P m
m−1
j=0
v −(m−j−1)/m (m − j − 1) = P m ax:n ¨
(m)
(5. we obtain the installment premium formula F (0) A(m)1 x:n P = (m) m−1 m¨x:n + 2 A(m)1 a x:n and this formula could be related using previous formulas derived in Section 5. payments are allowed to be made in installments at m regularly spaced times in the year. a further standard approximation leads to a simpler formula. If the term (m − j − 1) m−1 is replaced in the ﬁnal sum by its average over j. In the case of the apportionable return of premium. Insurances with provision (b) are said to have apportionable refund of premium. but that for the convenience of the insured.5. with the implication that premiums are understood to cover only the period of the year during which the insured is alive . if each level premium payment is P and the face amount of the policy is F (0). or by m−1 j=0 (m − j − 1) = m−1 (m − 1)m/2 = (m − 1)/2. using the same reasoning which previously led to the simpliﬁed formulas in that case. that the fraction of a single premium payment which will be returned is on average 1/2 regardless of which of
.16)
Although one could base an exact calculation of P on this equation. Insurance contracts with provision (a) are called insurances with installment premiums: the meaning of this term is that the insurer views the full year’s premium as due at the beginning of the year. BENEFITS INVOLVING FRACTIONAL PREMIUMS
137
the portion of the 1/m year of death from the instant of death to the end of the 1/m year of death. which is again P m ax:n . the only assumption usually considered is that of case (i).
multiplied) by the factor 1 + L. The balance equation is then very simple: A(m)1 (F (0) + x:n 1 (m) P ) = P m ax:n ¨ 2 (5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
the 1/m fractions of the year contains the instant of death.
5. as well as the insurance contracts which do not modify proceeds by premium fractions.5
Exercise Set 5
(1). which can easily be seen to be equivalent to inﬂating the faceamount F (0) in the balanceformulas by this factor. In both the apportionable refund and installment premium contracts.138
CHAPTER 5. but this is apparently not the usual practice. it is apparently the practice to load the level premiums P directly by the factor 1 + L. then formula (5. an identity whoch holds for each value of (the greatest integer [T ] less than or equal to) the exactageatdeath random variable T . n. and all ﬁxed interestrates and lifedistributions Ax = v a x − ax ¨ Show further that this relation is obtained by taking the expectation on both sides of an identity in terms of present values of paymentstreams.17) would involve the loading in the second term of the denominator. Show from ﬁrst principles that for all integers x.. If all amounts paid out by the insurer were equally loaded (i.17)
and this equation has the straightforward solution P = F (0) A(m)1 x:n m ax:n − ¨
(m) 1 2
A(m)1 x:n
It remains only to remark what is the eﬀect of loading for administrative expenses and proﬁt on insurance premium calculation. Show from ﬁrst principles that for all integers x.e.
. and all ﬁxed interestrates and lifedistributions ¨ ax:n = ax:n − 1 + v n n px (2).
interest rates. EXERCISE SET 5
139
(3). (a) Find the net single premium of the insurance contract described. 9. assume that the interest rate is ﬁxed at 5%.5. where x is an integer) has the survival probabilities px+k = 0. (5). show that (for all x. (6). . the policy with m = 1 (and expected present value ¨x ) pays 1 at the beginning a
. . by ﬁlling in the details of the following argument. In both parts (a). . . Using the exact expression for the interestrate functions i(m) . Redo problem (4) assuming in place of the uniform distribution of age at death that the insured individual has constant force of mortality within each whole year of age. beginning immediately. Find the amount of each semiannual payment. 10. Hence justify the socalled traditional approximation ax ≈ ax − ¨(m) ¨ m−1 2m
(7). and will pay $10. and assume wherever necessary that the individual’s distribution of deathtime is uniform within each whole year of age. Justify the ‘traditional approximation’ (the displayed formula in Exercise 6) as an exact formula in the case (i) in the limit i → 0. and lifedistributions)
1 Ax:n = v ax:n − ax:n ¨
(4).000 at the end of the quarteryear of death if he dies within the ﬁrst ﬁve years. β(m) which were derived in the Chapter. . Suppose that a life aged x (precisely. expand these functions in Taylor series about 0 up to quadratic terms.98 for k = 0. (b) Suppose that the individual purchasing the insurance described wants to pay level premiums semiannually. (b) of the problem. Use the resulting expressions to approximate the coeﬃcients α(m). d(m) respectively as functions of i and d.5. 1. No matter which policyyear is the year of death of the annuitant. Suppose that he wants to purchase a term insurance which will pay $30. Using the same idea as in problem (2). n.000 (also at the end of the quarteryear of death) if he dies between exact ages 5. Give your numerical answers to at least 6 signiﬁcant ﬁgures so that you can compare the exact numerical answers in these two problems.
q61 = 0.140
CHAPTER 5. For a temporary life annuity on a life aged 57. at rate P per year. you are given that µx = 0.06. .5 under the Balducci assumption. that premiums are paid continuously (with m = ∞) only for the ﬁrst two years.3.5 and 61.14)/(5. Show that the ratio of formulas (5. Show that the ratio of formulas (5. the constant interest rate i (or v = (1 + i)−1 ). Thus. (12). and that the annuity beneﬁts are payable at beginnings of years according to the following schedule: Year Beneﬁt 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 10 4 8 5 6 6 4 7 2 8+ 0
(a) In terms of P . when the lifetime T is assumed to be distributed precisely as an Exponential(µ) random variable. . the annuity with one payment per years pays more than the annuity with m > 1 by an absolute amount 1 − (Tm − [T ] + 1/m). with accuracy to the nearest whole number. (11). PREMIUM CALCULATION
of that year while the policy with m > 1 pays amounts 1/m at the beginning of each 1/m’th year in which the annuitant is alive. Disregard the interest and presentvalue discounting on the excess amount 1 − (Tm − [T ])/m paid by the mpaymentper year annuity. Calculate 10.04 is constant. (8).13) is 1 whenever either qx+k or i is set equal to 0. (9). (10). in terms of m.15)/(5. δ = . Under assumption (i). (m − 1)/m each with probability 1/m. . . and (iii) g denotes the probability that a life aged 60 will die between ages 60.5 under the assumption of uniform distribution of deaths within whole years of age. and the constant force µ of mortality. and show that it is exactly (m − 1)/2m. (b) Using the equivalence principle.
. Give an exact formula for the error of the ‘traditional approximation’ given in the previous problem. with beneﬁts deferred for three years. Tm − [T ] is a discrete random variable taking on the possible values 0.4.5 and 61. calculate P numerically.13) is 1 whenever either qx+k or i is set equal to 0. 000 · (g − f ) numerically. calculate the expected present value of the premiums paid. You are given that (i) q60 = 0. (ii) f denotes the probability that a life aged 60 will die between ages 60. 1.
In either case. (17). (16).
.06. Calculate Ax:2 . c (15).05.475. then the only beneﬁt is the return of premiums with interest compounded to the end of the year of death. A special life insurance policy to a life aged x provides that if death occurs at any time within 15 years. i = 0.08.10. and that 1 deaths are uniformly distributed over each year of age.54. You are given that i = 0.500.5. Prove that for every m. intuitive explanation of why the righthand side represents the expected present value of the same contingent payment stream as the lefthand side. the beneﬁt is paid at the end of the year of death. then ﬁnd a simpliﬁed expression for the level annual purerisk premium for the policy. If death occurs after 15 years.5. and that deaths are uniformly distributed over each year of age. and qx+1 = 0. EXERCISE SET 5
141
(13). n. Find A40 exactly. If the premiums for this policy are to be paid yearly for only the ﬁrst 5 years (starting at the time of issuance of the policy). 000. S(41) = 0. in terms of standard actuarial and interest functions. prove that µ x = A x ax where Ax is calculated at interest rate i while ax is calculated at a rate of interest i = 1+i − 1. x. k. and payable at the end of the 1/m year of death is given by either side of the identity An+k m − Ak m = k Ex An m x x x+k First prove the identity algebraically. qx = 0. A41 = 0. You are given that S(40) = 0. the net single premium for an nyear term insurance for a life aged x. then give an alternative. (14). the beneﬁt is $10. If a mortality table follows Gompertz’ law (with exponent c). with beneﬁt deferred for k years.
(I) First you will be given information about the constant assumed interest rate in any of the equivalent forms i(m) .504
0 p25 1 p25 2 p25 3 p25 4 p25 5 p25
= = = = = =
1.000 9..94)
so that i = exp(δ) − 1 = (1/0.9726) + (0.9726 0.9137 0. or δ. one immediately answers a question such as “what is the present value of $1 at the end of 7 1 years ?” by: v 7.
1 p25
− 2 p25 = 0. In terms of this quantity.0274.94) − 1 = 6/94.
2 p25
− 3 p25 = 0.0 0.0283. assume that the force of interest δ is constant = − ln(0.137 8.443 9. in any of the equivalent forms S(x + t).9443 − 0. and v = 0.818 8.142
CHAPTER 5. based on lifetable or theoretical survival probabilities and constant interest or discount rate. 2 (II) Next you must be given either a theoretical survival function for the random age at death of a life aged x.8504
From such data.8818 − 0. We describe the general situation and follow a speciﬁc case study/example throughout. f (x + t). one calculates immediately that (for example) the probability of dying at an odd attainedage between 25 and 30 inclusive is (1 − 0.726 9.5 . e.6
Worked Examples
Overview of Premium Calculation for SingleLife Insurance & Annuities Here is a schematic overview of the calculation of net single and level premiums for life insurances and life annuities. t px . PREMIUM CALCULATION
5. or a cohortform lifetable. l25 l26 l27 l28 l29 l30 = = = = = = 10.0894 The generally useful additional column to compute is: q25 = 1 − 1 p25 = 0.9137) + (0. d(m) . and you should immediately convert to ﬁnd the eﬀective annual interest rate (APR) i and oneyear discount factor v = 1/(1 + i). In our casestudy. or µ(x + t).94.8818 0.8504) = 0.0306
.9443 0.g.
944 (0.8504)
The annuity part of this net single premium is $38.000. and you should reexpress its present value in terms of standard functions such as ax:n or A1 . For example.943 (0.09 . WORKED EXAMPLES
3 p25
143
4 p25
− 4 p25 = 0.6.5. In general. 000 ax:n + 15.94(0. This contract is evidently a superposition of a nyear pure endowment with face value $15. one at time 0 and one after 3 years (with the second payment to be made only if he is alive at that time).201.68 . and to terminate at death or a maximum of n payments. The ﬁrst is that the purchaser aged x wishes to pay in two equal installments.942 (0. If the payment is to be made at time 0 in one lump sum. If the payments are to be constant in amount (level premiums).945 (0.9137) + + 0.000 and a nyear temporary life annuityimmediate with yearly payments $10. then we divide the net single premium by the expected present value of a unit life annuity ax:n .8504) + 15000(0. suppose a x:n life aged x purchases an endowment/annuity according to which he receives $10.0314
(III) In any problem. to ﬁnd the premium we divide the net single premium of ¨ (III) by the expected present value of a unit amount paid according to the desired premiumpayment stream.945 · 0.000.8818) + 0.9137 = 1.361. The expected present value of a unit amount paid in this fashion is 1 + v 3 3 px = 1 + (0. 000 n px v n In our casestudy example. Thus.000 once a year starting at age x+1 until either death occurs or n years have elapsed. consider two cases. the expected present value (= net single premium) is 10. the terms of the life insurance or annuity to be purchased will be speciﬁed.9726) + 0.562.94)3 0. and the pureendowment part is $9.
− 5 p25 = 0. once a year.77 (IV) The ﬁnal part of the premium computation problem is to specify the type of payment stream with which the insured life intends to pay for the contract whose expected present value has been ﬁgured in step (III). In the casestudy example. for a total net single premium of $47. and if he is alive at the end of n years he receives $15.0319. then the net single premium has already been ﬁgured and we are done.7589
.9443) + 0. to start immediately. this expected present value is = 10000 0.
.31
Thus the combined present value is 48947.94)25 ) = 9.945 (0.19) (1 − 0.144
CHAPTER 5. the net single premium for the endowment part of the contract has exactly the same value $9361.e. In this case.99: the increase of 1385 in value arises mostly from the earlier annuity payments: consider that the interest on the annuity value for onehalf year is 38201(0. and agrees to (have his estate) repay the loan unconditionally (i.0002991) (1 + 0. as a second example. no probabilities are involved in valuing the payment stream. let us redo the casestudy calculation of paragraphs (III) to cover the case where the insurance has quarterly instead of annual payments.944 (0.627 In this setting. the amount of each of the equal payments must be $ 47.94/.9443) + 0.8818)) − (6348.5 − 1) = 1200 . and the present value of such a payment stream of unit amounts is v 4 a25 = (0. PREMIUM CALCULATION
Thus the premium amount to be paid at each payment time is $ 47.94−0. 563 / 1.942 (0. without regard to the event of his death) over a period of 29 years. First. suppose that the purchaser is in eﬀect taking out his annuity/endowment in the form of a loan.943 (0.6) is equal to = 10000 α(4) ax:n − (1 − v n n px ) (10000β(4) + 2500) + 15000 v n n px ¨ In the particular case with v = 0. 000 Ax:n = 10000 ax:n − (4) (4)
1 (1 − v n n px ) + 15000 v n n px 4
which by virtue of (5. the expected present value to ﬁnd becomes
1 ¨ 10. with 25 equal payments to be made every year beginning at the end of 5 years.94. Throughout. 041 Alternatively. n = 5.9137) + + 0. and cohort lifetable given in (II). assume that deaths within years of attained age are uniformly distributed (case(i)).06) (1 − (0.68 as before.7589 = $27.627 = $ 4941 (V) To complete the circle of ideas given here.94(0. while the annuity part now has the value 10000 (1. x = 25.9726) + 0.8504)) = 39586.94)4 (. 000 ax:n + 15. 563 / 9.
T − [T ] < t  T ≥ x) =
x+k
f (y) dy = t qx+k k px S(x) p.
β(m) =
m−1 2m
when i = 0 p.5. 125
A(m)1 = x:n
i i(m)
A1 x:n
under (i) p. 127
α(m) =
di . 127
ax:n = ¨
(m)
1 − Ax:n i 1 1 = (m) 1 − (m) Ax:n − n px v n d(m) d i p. 127
(m)
ax:n = ¨
(m)
di ax:n + ¨ d(m) i(m)
1−
i i(m)
1 − v n n px d(m)
under (i) p. 127
ax:n = α(m) ax:n − β(m) (1 − n px v n ) ¨ ¨
(m)
under (i) p. 128
. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 5
145
5. d(m) i(m)
β(m) =
i − i(m) d(m) i(m) p. 128
α(m) = 1 .7.7
Useful Formulas from Chapter 5
x+k+t
P ([T ] = x + k. 125
P ( T − [T ] ≤ t  [T ] = x + k) =
t qx+k
qx+k p.
132
under (iii)
Level Installment Risk Premium
=
F (0) A(m)1 x:n m¨x:n + a
(m) m−1 2
A(m)1 x:n p.146
CHAPTER 5. PREMIUM CALCULATION
n−1
ax:n = ¨
k=0
(m)
v k k px
1 − vpx+k m(1 − (vpx+k )1/m )
under (ii) p. 132
m−1
A
(m)1
x:k+1
−A
(m)1
x:k
= v
k+1
k px qx+k j=0
px+k v −j/m m (1 − j+1 qx+k ) (1 − m
j m
qx+k ) p. 137
Apportionable Refund Risk Premium
=
F (0) A(m)1 x:n m ax:n − ¨
(m) 1 2
A(m)1 x:n p. 132
(m)1 A(m)1 = v k+1 k px (1 − px+k ) x:k+1 − A x:k
1/m
i + qx+k 1 + (i(m) /m) − px+k
1/m
under (ii) p. 138
. 129
(m)1 A(m)1 = x:k+1 − A x:k
i i(m)
v k+1 k px · qx+k
under (i) p.
we consider ﬁrst the historically important topic of Commutation Functions for actuarial calculations. can all be obtained from a single table lookup. and indicate why they lose their computational usefulness as soon as the insurer entertains the possibility (as demographers often do) that lifetable survival probabilities display some slow secular trend with respect to year of birth. and insurances from the same life table and ﬁgured at the same interest rate. assuming that a govern147
. for lives of diﬀering ages and for policies of diﬀering durations. endowments.1
Idea of Commutation Functions
The Commutation Functions are a computational device to ensure that net single premiums for life annuities.
6. We continue our treatment of premiums and insurance contract valuation by treating brieﬂy the idea of insurance reserves and policy cash values as the lifecontingent analogue of mortgage amortization and reﬁnancing. Reserves & Select Mortality
In this Chapter.Chapter 6 Commutation Functions. Even now. this idea has been very important in saving calculational labor when arriving at premium quotes. showing how models for selectpopulation mortality can be used to calculate whether modiﬁed premium and deferral options are suﬃcient protections for insurers to insure such populations. The Chapter concludes with a brief section on Select Mortality. Historically.
COMMUTATION & RESERVES
ing life table and interest rate are chosen provisionally. namely the pure nyear endowment. then the net single premium is rewritten Ax = Ax:∞ =
∞ y=x 1 ∞ k=0
v
k+1
k px
· qx+k =
∞ k=0
v x+k+1 (lx+k − lx+k+1 ) v x lx
∞ y=x
=
v
y+1
dy Mx = . consider ﬁrst the contract with the simplest netsinglepremium formula. The expected present value of $1 one year in the future if the policyholder aged x is alive at that time is denoted in older books as n Ex and is called the actuarial present value of a lifecontingent nyear future payment of 1:
1 Ax:n = n Ex
= v n n px
Even such a simple lifetable and interestrelated function would seem to require a table in the two integer parameters x. D y ≡ v y ly (6. The addition of just a few more columns allows the other main lifeannuity and insurance quantities to be recovered with no more than simple arithmetic. company employees without quantitative training could calculate premiums in a spreadsheet format with the aid of a life table. Dx Dx
Mx ≡
v y+1 dy
The insurance of ﬁnite duration also has a simple expression in terms of the same commutation columns M. D :
n−1
Ax:n =
k=0
1
v k+1
Mx − Mx+n dk+x = Dx Dx
(6. n.148
CHAPTER 6. but the following expression immediately shows that it can be recovered simply from a single tabulated column: Dx+n v n+x ln+x 1 Ax:n = = . if we begin by considering whole life insurances (with only one possible payment at the end of the year of death). at least for integer ages and durations we would simply augment the insurancecompany lifetable by the column Dx . Thus.1) xl v x Dx In other words.2)
. To ﬁx the idea.
IDEA OF COMMUTATION FUNCTIONS
149
Next let us pass to to life annuities. immediately yields Mx = D x − d N x (6. Using the case(i) interpolation assumption. a useful and desirable outcome even in these days of accessible highpowered computing. Dx Dx
Nx =
∞ y=x
v y ly
(6.4)
Based on these tabulated commutation columns D. Again we begin with the life annuitydue of inﬁnite duration: ax = ax:∞ = ¨ ¨
∞ k=0
v k+x
lk+x Nx = .6.3)
The commutation column Nx turns is the reverse cumulative sum of the Dx column: Nx =
∞
Dy
y=x
The expected present value for the ﬁniteduration lifeannuity due is obtained as a simple diﬀerence
n−1
ax:n = ¨
k=0
v k+x
Nx − Nx+n lx+k = Dx Dx
There is no real need for a separate commutation column Mx since. as we have seen. and then multupliying through by Dx . the mpaymentperyear net single premiums A(m)1 x:n (m) and ax:n would be related to their singlepayment counterparts (whose ¨ commutationfunction formulas have just been provided) through the standard formulas A(m)1 = x:n i i(m)
1 Ax:n . 1 ax:n = α(m) ax:n − β(m) 1 − Ax:n ¨ ¨ (m)
. there is an identity relating net single premiums for whole life insurances and annuities: Ax = 1 − d a x ¨ Writing this identity with Ax and ax replaced by their respective commutation¨ function formulas. N .1. a quantitatively unskilled person could use simple formulas and tables to provide onthespot insurance premium quotes. M.
96 29883.01 905. with APR interestrate 6%.52 335.72
i i(m)
·
Mx − Mx+n Dx
ax:n = α(m) ¨
Nx − Nx+n Dx+n − β(m) (1 − ) Dx Dx
To illustrate the realistic sizes of commutationcolumn numbers.94 904739.71 4729.85 4865.41
Mx 94233.12 127.13 10178.27 1486.65 37574.87 27425.87 685.00 72481.34 505. Age x 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 That is.68 1227973.71 12161. for the illustrative simulated life table given on page 3.1 the main commutationcolumns for 6% APR interest. A(m)1 = x:n
(m)
lx 100000 96997 96702 96435 95840 95051 94295 93475 92315 90402 87119 82249 75221 65600 53484 39975
Dx 100000.55 7117.31 36282.75 16417.1: Commutation Columns for the simulated US Male Illustrative LifeTable.75 252900.66 69507.150
CHAPTER 6.45 2256. we reproduce as Table 6.75 2053.07 6567.10 663822.79 484519.79 5920.80 53997.1. in 5year intervals.
6.37 56988.73 1235.59 8975.07 125748.81 351486.55 21833.96 51211.1.60 85951.70 179821. Table 1.65 19895.63 2280.89 40238.65
Nx 1664794.55 3336.77 12110.17 3225.37 22146. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Table 6.1
Variablebeneﬁt Commutation Formulas
The only additional formulas which might be commonly needed in insurance sales are the variablebeneﬁt term insurances with linearly increasing or de
.48 14315.
and we content ourselves with showing how an additional commutationcolumn could serve here. . as we have discussed earlier. Here we consider brieﬂy what would happen to premium calculation and the commutation formalism if the key assumption that the same
. .6. the ﬁniteduration linearlyincreasingbeneﬁt insurance has the expression IAx:n = IAx −
1 ∞ k=n
(k + 1) v k+x+1
Rx − xMx Rx+n − xMx+n dx+k = − Dx Dx Dx
and the net single premium for the linearlydecreasingbeneﬁt insurance. which pays beneﬁt n − k if death occurs between exact policy ages k and k + 1 for k = 0. n − 1. First consider the inﬁniteduration policy with linearly increasing beneﬁt IAx =
∞ k=0
(k + 1) v k+1 k px · qx+k
This net single premium can be written in terms of the commutation functions already given together with Rx =
∞ k=0
(x + k + 1) v x+k+1 dx+k
Clearly. can be obtained from the increasingbeneﬁt insurance through the identity DA1 = (n + 1)A1 − IA1 x:n x:n x:n Throughout all of our discussions of premium calculation — not just the present consideration of formulas in terms of commutation functions — we have assumed that for ages of prospective policyholders. IDEA OF COMMUTATION FUNCTIONS
151
creasing beneﬁts. . but for the present we continue to ﬁx the interest rate i. In a future Chapter. . the summation deﬁning IAx can be written as
∞ k=0
(x + k + 1) v
k+1
k px
· qx+k − x
∞ k=0
v k+1 k px · qx+k =
Rx Mx −x Dx Dx
Then. the same interest rate and life table would apply.1. we shall consider the problem of premium calculation and reserving under variable and stochastic interestrate assumptions.
through the eradication or successful treatment of certain disease conditions). sanitation. regulation of hours and conditions of work.1. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
life table applies to all insureds were to be replaced by an assumption involving interpolation between (the death rates deﬁned by) two separate life tables applying to diﬀerent birth cohorts. is to view agespeciﬁc deathrates qx as locally linear functions of calendar time t. namely how extra (‘covariate’ ) information about a prospective policyholder might change the survival probabilities which should be used to calculate premiums for that policyholder. As we have discussed previously in introducing the concept of force of mortality. Mathematically. the modelling of shifts in mortality patterns with respect to likely causes of death at diﬀerent ages suggests that it is most natural to express shifts in mortality in terms of forceofmortality and death rates rather than in terms of probability density or populationwide relative numbers of deaths in various ageintervals. it may be slightly more natural to make this assumption of linearity directly about the force of mortality.g. Suppose therefore that in calendar year t. The reasons for this are primarily related to public health (e.. This is a particular case of a topic which we shall also take up in a future chapter. Then. The agedependent slope bx will generally be extremely small. the force of (t) mortality µx at all ages x is assumed to have the form µ(t) = µ(0) + bx t x x
(0)
(6. used for projections over limited periods of time by demographers (cf.152
CHAPTER 6. One of the simplest models of this type.
6. diet.5)
where µx is the forceofmortality associated with some standard life table as of some arbitrary but ﬁxed calendartime origin t = 0. placing superscripts (t) over all lifetable entries and ratios to designate calendar time.2
Secular Trends in Mortality
Demographers recognize that there are secular shifts over time in lifetable agespeciﬁc deathrates. the text Introduction to Demography by M. Spiegelman). we calculate
k (t) k px = exp k−1
−
µx+u du
0
(t)
= k p(t) · exp(−t x
bx+j )
j=0
. etc.
6)
Thus the commutationcolumns Dx (from the standard lifetable) and Bx are enough to reproduce the timedependent commutation column D. the virtues of commutation functions in providing quick premiumquotes would not be lost if the life tables used were to vary systematically from one calendar year to the next.
6. since the calendar year t would be ﬁxed for the printed tables which an insurance salesperson would carry around.7) by the approximation
(t) Mx
=
∞ y=x
(0) (0) Dy p(0) + t by+1 qy e−tBy y
None of these formulas would be too diﬃcult to calculate with.8)
(t) Nx =
For simplicity. the early premium payments must to some extent exceed the early insurance costs. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY If we denote Bx =
y=0 x
153
by
and assume that the lifetable radix l0 is not taken to vary with calendar (t) time. N become
(t) Mx = ∞ y=x ∞ y=x (t) v y (ly − ly+1 ) = (0) Dy e−tBy (t) ∞ y=x (0) (0) Dy e−tBy 1 − e−t by+1 qy
(6. one might replace equation (6.6.2.
. it is clear that since risks of death rise very rapidly with age beyond middleage.2
Reserve & Cash Value of a Single Policy
In longterm insurance policies paid for by level premiums. moreover. then the commutationfunction Dx = Dx takes the form
(t) Dx = v x l 0 x p 0 (0) (t) (0) = Dx e−tBx
(6. and the timedependent commutation columns M. for example on a handcalculator.7) (6. but now the calculation is not quite so simple.
just before policy termination n Vx:n = 1. an endowment.154
CHAPTER 6. the diﬀerence paid in versus out is generally in the insurer’s favor. and to show how the reserve amounts are to be calculated. etc. it is generally not true within each year of the policy that the expected present value of amounts paid in are equal to the expected present value of amounts paid out. paid for with level premiums. etc. which is to say the reserve n V just before termination. and the surplus must be set aside as a reserve against expected claims in later policyyears. Suppose that a policyholder aged x purchased an endowment or insurance (of duration at least t) t years ago. with reserves denoted t Vx:n and terminal reserve n Vx:n = 0. The main possibilities are the pure term 1 1 insurance. Px:n . there are no further premiums to be received or insurance beneﬁts to be paid. are respectively used to denote the level annual premium amounts for a term insurance. Just as the notations Px:n .
. However. the terminal reserve under the policy. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Our calculation of risk premiums ensures by deﬁnition that for each insurance and/or endowment policy. Note once and for all that loading plays no role in the calculation of reserves: throughout this Section. In the early policy years.. By deﬁnition.and superscripts with the symbol t V to describe the reserves on these diﬀerent types of policies. The loading portion of actual premium payments is considered either as reimbursement of administrative costs or as proﬁt of the insurer. ‘premiums’ refer only to purerisk premiums.. the expected total present value of premiums paid in will equal the expected present value of claims to be paid out. the net premium reserve of any of the possible types of contract as of policyage t = 0 is 0 : this simply expresses the balance between expected present value of amounts to be paid into and out of the insurer under the policy. with reserves denoted t Vx:n and terminal reserve 1 In each of these two examples. and has survived to the present. in case policy age t coincides with a time of premium1 1 payment). and 1 the endowment insurance. On the other hand. will diﬀer from one type of policy to another. but in any case does not represent buildup of value for the insured. It is the purpose of the present section to make all of these assertions mathematically precise. we use the same system of sub. Deﬁne the net (level) premium reserve as of time t to be the excess t V of the expected present value of the amount to be paid out under the contract in future years over the expected present value of further pure risk premiums to be paid in (including the premium paid immediately.
10)
One identity from our previous discussions of net single premiums immediately simpliﬁes the description of reserves for endowment insurances.9) (6.. The deﬁnition of net premium reserves is by nature prospective.6. we do not consider here the insurances or endowment insurances with m > 1 possible payments per year. It
. referring to future payment streams and their expected present values.2.1
Retrospective Formulas & Identities
The notion of reserve discussed so far expresses a diﬀerence between expected present value of amounts to be paid out and to be paid in to the insurer dating from t years following policy initiation. the formulas for reserves under the term and endowment insurances are respectively given by:
1 t Vx:n t Vx:n 1 = A1 ¨ x+t:n−t − Px:n · ax+t:n−t = Ax+t:n−t − Px:n · ax+t:n−t ¨
(6. endowment) beneﬁt to be paid at policy termination. conditionally given the survival of the insured life aged x for the additional t years to reach age x + t.12)
6.e.2. Note that for simplicity. The reserves for such policies can be obtained as previously discussed from the onepaymentperyear case via interpolation formulas. we obtain Px:n = 1 ax:n ¨ −d (6. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY
155
so that the terminal reserve coincides with the terminal (i. From the definition.11)
after which we immediately derive from the deﬁnition the reserveidentity
t Vx:n
= ax+t:n−t Px+t:n−t − Px:n ¨
= 1−
ax+t:n−t ¨ ax:n ¨
(6. Recall the identity ax:n = ¨ 1 − Ax:n d =⇒ Ax:n = 1 − d ax:n ¨
Dividing the second form of this identity through by the net single premium for the life annuitydue.
insurance endowment. t) (up to but not including policy age t ).) For the insurance. A1 x:t x+t:n−t
. as conferring a beneﬁt of expected time0 present value Ut on the policyageinterval [0. in one sense the insurance has not been ‘used’ at all because it did not generate a claim. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
stands to reason that. Suppose that a lifecontingent payment stream (of duration n at least t) can be described in two stages. we state a general and slightly abstract proposition. but an insurance up to policy age t was in any case the only part of the purchased beneﬁt which could have brought a payment from the insurer up to policy age t. (Assume for the following discussion that the intermediate duration t is also an integer. we obtain without further eﬀort three useful identities by recognizing that a term lifeinsurance. To understand clearly why there is a close connection between retrospective and prospective diﬀerences between expected (present value of) amounts paid in and paid out under an insurance/endowment contract.and after. Ut = A1 and Ft = Ax+t:n−t . (Of course. and also conferring a beneﬁt if the policyholder is alive as of policy age t with expected present value as of time t which is equal to Ft . This latter amount is called the cash value of the policy when accumulated actuarially to time t. and the premiums paid prior to time t x:t had time0 present value ax:t · P .t component along the lines of the displayed Proposition. Then the total expected time0 present value of the contractual payment stream is Ut + v t t px F t Before applying this idea to the balancing of prospective and retrospective reserves. since the insured has lived to age x + t. where P denotes the level annualized ¨ premium for the durationn contract actually purchased. assuming this reserve amount to be positive.156
CHAPTER 6.) The insurance bought had the time0 present value A1 . there must have been up to time t an excess of premiums collected over insurance acquired up to duration t. and life annuitydue (all of duration n) can each be divided into a before. and represents a cash amount to which the policyholder is entitled (less administrative expenses) if he wishes to discontinue the insurance. the beneﬁt Ut up to t is A1 . For the endowment insurance. and the contingent aftert beneﬁt Ft is x:t .
16) (6.17)
v t t px t Vx:n
= − Ax:t − Px:t ax:n ¨
The interpretation in words of these last two equations is that the actuarial present value of the net (level) premium reserve at time t (of either the term insurance or endowment insurance contract) is equal to the negative of the expected present value of the diﬀerence between the contract proceeds and the premiums paid on [0.5.) The cashreserve curves t V40:40 as functions of t = 0. Assembling ¨ these facts using the displayed Proposition. These mortality laws are realistic in the sense that they closely mirror the US male mortality in 1959 (cf. which discounts present values from time t to the present values at time 0 contingent on survival to t. It coincides with t Ex = Ax:t . and (6. Ut = ax:t and Ft = ax+t:n−t . based upon 6% interest. for the life annuitydue. we have our three identities:
1 Ax:n
= A 1 + v t t px A 1 x:t x+t:n−t = A1 + v t t px Ax+t:n−t x:t = ax:t + v t t px ax+t:n−t ¨ ¨
(6. n]. Figure 6. Note
. (6.3 and 2. .2. Indeed. The mortality laws used in this calculation. This is the factor which connects the excess of insurance over premiums on [0. plotted points in Figure 2.4 in Chapter 2. for a 40year term life insurance with faceamount 1. .13). 000 for a life aged 40.5. substituting the identities (6. chosen from the same families of laws used to illustrate forceofmortality curves in Figures 2. 40 are pictured graphically in Figure 6. the expected present value at 0 of a payment of 1 to be made at time t if the life aged x survives to age x+t.15) into the identities
1 ¨ A1 = Px:n ax:n .14) (6.13) (6. has been called above 1 the actuarial present value. . x:n
Ax:n = Px:n ax:n ¨
yields
1 v t t px t Vx:n 1 = − A1 − Px:n ax:n ¨ x:t
(6. are the same plausible mortality laws whose survival functions are pictured in Figure 2. t) with the reserves t V on the insurance/endowment contracts which refer prospectively to the period [t. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY
157
¨ Finally.1 provides next an illustrative set of calculated net level premium reserves.6. t).14). .1.15)
Ax:n ax:n ¨
The factor v t t px .
3
Reserves under Constant Force of Mortality
We have indicated above that the phenomenon of positive reserves relates in some way to the aging of human populations. the reserves for term insurances are identically 0. and $316.12). the reserves for terminsurance and pureendowment can also be expressed rather simply in terms of t Vx:n . the expected present value of premiums paid in within each policy year exactly compensates. as reﬂected in the increasing force of mortality associated with lifetable survival probabilities. $439.19)
6. A simple benchmark example helps us here: we show that when lifetable survival is governed at all ages x and greater by a constant force of mortality µ. $379. for endowment and/or insurance contracts in which the period of payment of level premiums coincides with the (ﬁnite or inﬁnite) policy duration. we obtain
1 Vx:n = v n−t n−t px+t
− v n n px 1 − t Vx:n
(6.2. we conclude V1 = (1 − v n n px ) t Vx:n + v n n px − v n−t x:n
n−t px+t
(6. under constant force of mortality. as we have seen in formula (6.2
Relating Insurance & Endowment Reserves
The simplest formulas for net level premium reserves in a general contract 1 arise in the case of endowment insurance t Vx:n . by substitution of formula (6. In other words.
. the reserves on the $1000 term insurance are respectively $459.06.43.12). COMMUTATION & RESERVES
that these reserves can be very substantial: at policy age 30. Indeed. for the expected present value of the amount to be paid out for that same policy year.158
CHAPTER 6. we ﬁnd for the pure endowment
1 n−t t Vx:n = v n−t px+t −
v n n px ax+t:n−t ¨ ax:n ¨
from which.2.17.79.18)
Then. reasoning from ﬁrst principles with the prospective formula. for net level reserves or cash value on a term insurance. In fact.
6.
with median age 72 at death. under the same mortality laws pictured in Figures 2.2. 1.653.4383) Gompertz(3. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY
159
Reserves for Term Insurance & Various Mortality Laws
Cash Reserve
200
300
400
Lognormal(3.46e3.6.5.491.74.953e6) Gamma(14.0918)
0 0
100
10
20 Policy Age (years)
30
40
Figure 6. For deﬁnitions of the mortality laws see the Examples of analytical forceofmortality functions in Chapter 2. 1.1: Net level premium reserves as a function of policy age for a 40year term insurance to a life aged 40 with level beneﬁt 1000. 0.246^2) Weibull(3. . at 6%.
.
4
Reserves under Increasing Force of Mortality
Intuitively. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
The calculations here are very simple. In this subsection. using the simple observation that when µ(x + y) is an increasing function of positive y. under constant force of mortality
n−1
A1 = x:n
k=0
v k+1 e−µ k (1 − e−µ ) = (eµ − 1) (ve−µ )
n−1
1 − (ve−µ )n 1 − ve−µ
while ax:n = ¨
v k e−µ k =
k=0
1 − (ve−µ )n 1 − ve−µ
It follows from these last two equations that
1 Px:n = v (1 − e−µ )
which does not depend upon either age x (within the agerange where constant force of mortality holds) or n . we should expect that a forceofmortality function which is everywhere increasing for ages greater than or equal to x will result in intermediate reserves for term insurance which are positive at times between 0.12)
t Vx:n = 1 −
ax+t:n−t ¨ 1 − (ve−µ )n−t = 1− ax:n ¨ 1 − (ve−µ )n
6. since the terminal reserve of an endowment insurance must be 1 even under constant force of mortality. we prove those assertions.
k k px+y
= exp(−
0
µ( x + y + z) dz)
in y
(6. Indeed. Reasoning from ﬁrst principles. we have the formula deriving from equation (6.2.20)
. n and in reserves for endowment insurance which increase from 0 at t = 0 to 1 at t = n. the intermediate net level premium reserves for endowment insurance must be positive and growing. The immediate result is that for 0<t<n 1 1 1 ¨ = 0 t Vx:n = ax+t:n−t Px+t:n−t − Px:n By contrast.160
CHAPTER 6.
. and by formula (6. it is instructive to remark that each of the displayed ratios is in fact a multiple v times a weighted average of deathrates: for 0 ≤ s < n. . . and calculate using the displayed fact that k px+y decreases in y.21)
Moreover. qx+k < qx+j and for all k ∈ {0. . . dividing numerator and denominator of the ratio deﬁning q by v t t px gives the alternative expression vq =
n−t−1 a v a px+t qx+t+a a=0 n−t−1 a v a px+t a=0 1 = Px+t:n−t
. qx+k < q (6. t − 1} . together with t ∈ {1. .12). .2. this assertion is equivalent to the claim that 1 a Ax+t:n−t /¨x+t:n−t > A1 /¨x:n x:n a To see why this is true. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY
161
First suppose that 0 ≤ s < t ≤ n. . . .9) above. ranging from 0 at t = 0 to 1 at t t = 1. and deﬁne q =
n−1 j j=t v j px qx+j n−1 j j=t v j px
Since µx+y is assumed increasing for all y. 1 the net level premium reserves t Vx:n for term insurances are positive for t = 1. we have from formula (6. By equation (6.
n−t−1 n−t−1
ax+t:n−t = ¨
k=0
v
k+1
k px+t
≤
v k+1 k px+s < ax+s:n−s ¨
k=0
Therefore ax+t:n−t is a decreasing function of t.6. ¨ Vx:n is an increasing function of t. n − 1}. n−s−1 k A1 v k px+s qx+s+k x+s:n−s k=0 = v n−s−1 k ax+s:n−s ¨ v k px+s k=0 Now ﬁx the age x arbitrarily. .20) that qx+j = 1 − px+j is an increasing function of j. so that for k < t ≤ j. . n − 1. It remains to show that for force of mortality which is increasing in age.
we calculate A1 x:n = v ax:n ¨ = v
t−1 k=0 t−1 k=0
v k k px qx+k +
t−1 k=0
v k k px +
n−t−1 j=t n−t−1 j=t
v j j px qx+j v j j px
v k k px qx+k + q
t−1 k=0
v k k px +
n−t−1 j v j px j=t n−t−1 j v j px j=t
1 < v q = Px+t:n−t
as was to be shown. The conclusion is that under the assumption of increasing 1 force of mortality for all ages x and larger.162
CHAPTER 6.5
Recursive Calculation of Reserves
The calculation of reserves can be made very simple and mechanical in numerical examples with small illustrative life tables.21) and the deﬁnition of q once more. t Vx:n > 0 for t = 1. n − 1. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
Finally. due to the identities (6. using equation (6. . The reserves at integer policyage t are equal to the sum of the oneyearahead actuarial present value of the reserves at time t + 1 and the excess of the present value of this
. . we ﬁnd
1 t Vx:n
=
−1 1 A1 − Px:n ax:t ¨ x:t v t t px
=
−1 t 1 t+1 A1 ¨ t px qx+t − Px:n ax:t+1 − v t px x:t+1 − v v t t px = v px+t
1 t+1 Vx:n 1 + v qx+t − Px:n
The result for terminsurance reserves is the single recursion
1 t Vx:n
= v px+t
1 t+1 Vx:n
1 + v qx+t − Px:n
(6.13) and (6.13). .22)
which we can interpret in words as follows.2.14) together with the easily proved recursive identities (for integers t) 1 Ax:t+1 = A1 + v t+1 t px qx+t x:t Ax:t+1 = Ax:t − v t t px + v t+1 t px = Ax:t − d v t t px ¨ ax:t+1 = ax:t + v t t px ¨ Combining the ﬁrst and third of these recursions with (6. .
6.
In that case.2. A completely similar algebraic proof. the insurer might apply some further (possibly lesser) loading to cover future administrative costs.
6.6
PaidUp Insurance
An insured may want to be aware of the cash value (equal to the reserve) of an insurance or endowment either in order to discontinue the contract and receive the cash or to continue the contract in its current form and borrow with the reserve as collateral. for an administrative fee the insurer can convert the premium reserve to a single premium for a new insurance (either with the same term. RESERVE & CASH VALUE OF A SINGLE POLICY
163
year’s expected insurance payout (v qx+t ) over this year’s received premium 1 (Px:n ).6 below. but a combination of the previous formulas for reserves and net single premiums. This is really not a new topic.23)
The verbal intepretation is as before: the future reserve is discounted by the oneyear actuarial present value and added to the expected present value of the oneyear term insurance minus the oneyear cash (risk) premium. it may also happen for various reasons that an insured may want to continue insurance coverage but is no longer able or willing to par further premiums. would be multiplied through by the level beneﬁt amount B. However. Now if the cash or reserve value t Vx is to serve as net single
.14). yields a recursive formula for endowmentinsurance reserves (when t < n) :
t Vx:n
= v px+t
t+1 Vx:n
1 + v qx+t − Px:n
(6. but in practice.2. is ax+t ¨ Ax · ax+t = 1 − ¨ t Vx = Ax+t − ax ¨ ax ¨ This formula. now specialized for wholelife insurances. or wholelife) with lesser beneﬁt amount. which applies to a unit face amount. The idea is that any loading which may have applied has been collected as part of the level premiums. Two illustrative worked examples on this topic are given in Section 6. combining the oneyear recursions above for endowment insurance and life annuitydue with identity (6.6. we give the simpliﬁed formula for the case where the cash reserve is used as a single premium to purchase a new wholelife policy. In this subsection. Note that loading is disregarded in this calculation. The general formula for reserves.
a slightly artiﬁcal calculation along these lines illustrates the principle and gives some numerical examples. In such cases. or have a suﬃciently long datahistory. insurers may provide coverage under special premiums and terms. the select group’s mortality will be suﬃciently like the mortality of the general population in order that the insurer will be adequately protected if the premium in increased by some standard multiple. The stated rationale is that after such a period of deferral. payable at the end of the year of death) to a randomly selected life (of any speciﬁed age x) from the general population is easily calculated to be Level Risk Premium = v k k px Ax+k /¨x = (1 − e−µ ) v k+1 e−µk a (6. and that the select group has larger force of mortality µ∗ . In this Section.164
CHAPTER 6. then the level yearly risk premium for a kyear deferred wholelife insurance (of unit amount.25)
If this premium is multiplied by a factor κ > 1 and applied as the risk premium for a kyear deferred wholelife policy to a member of the select
.3
Select Mortality Tables & Insurance
Insurers are often asked to provide life insurance converage to groups and/or individuals who belong to special populations with mortality signiﬁcantly worse than that of the general population. Assume for simplicity that the general population has constant force of mortality µ. If the interest rate is i. e. within the insurer’s portfolio for survival probabilities to be wellestimated inhouse. 5 years. and v = 1/(1 + i). Yet such select populations may not be large enough.24)
6. the new faceamount F is determined as of the t policyanniversary by the balance equation B · t Vx = F · Ax+t which implies that the equivalent face amount of paidup insurance as of policyage t is F = B t Vx ax+t ¨ = B 1− Ax+t ax ¨ (1 − d ax+t ) ¨ (6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
premium for a new insurance. The most usual example is that such select risks may be issued insurance with restricted or no beneﬁts for a speciﬁed period of time.g.
52 1 1.10 0.42 1 3 1 1. and annuity notations with superscripts ∗ are calculated using the select mortality distribution with force of mortality µ∗ .02 0.05 0. and κ. under several combinations of k. select mortality with force of mortality multiplied by 1.05 µ∗ 0.26) = −mu∗ 1 − ve
where the probability. Table 6. the premiums and excess payouts do not depend on the age of the insured.68 Excess Payout 109 112 63 0 299 330 95 0 95 0
population.6.2: Excess payout as given by formula (6. insurance. is
−µ Excess Payout = v k k p∗ A∗ ) v k+1 e−µk ax ¨∗ x x+k − κ (1 − e v k+1 ∗ ∗ (1 − e−µ )e−µk − (1 − e−µ )e−µ k (6. k 0 0 5 5 0 0 5 5 3 3 µ 0. Note that in these examples. A calculation
.02 0.10 0.02 0.05 0. then the expected excess (per unit of beneﬁt) of the amount paid out under this select policy over the risk premiums collected.10 0.05 0.05 0. by an increase of 40–60% in premium on wholelife policies deferring beneﬁts by 3 or 5 years.10 κ 1 2 1 1.3.03 0. µ.03 0. Interest rate is i = 0. Additional material will be added to this Section later.5 or 2 is oﬀset. with suﬃcient protection to the insurer. µ∗ .3 shows the values of some of these excess payouts. Because of the constancy of forces of mortality both in the general and the select populations.02 0.26) under a kyear deferred whole life insurance with beneﬁt $1000.03 0.06 APR throughout.05 0.10 0.03 0. issued to a select population with constant force of mortality µ∗ for a level yearly premium which is a multiple κ times the pure risk premium for the standard population which has forceofmortality µ.10 0. SELECT MORTALITY TABLES & INSURANCE
165
Table 6.06. for i = 0.
5. Assuming that cash values are equal to net level premium reserves and reduced paidup insurances are calculated using the equivalence principle.) (1). wherever necessary. which pays $30. (ii) For a onepaymentperyear levelpremium 20year endowment insurance of 1 on a life aged x + 10. so that the cash value is equated to the net single premium of an endowment insurance with reduced face value.1. use the Simulated Illustrative Life Table with commutator columns given as Table 6. the amount of reduced paidup insurance at the end of 5 years is 0. You are given the following information.166
CHAPTER 6.e.
6.
. calculate the amount of reduced paidup insuranceat the end of 15 years for the 30year endowment insuranceof 1 on a life aged x. where the payments are to be made semiannually. (2). using 6% APR as the going rate of interest. (b) Find the level annual premium for a wholelife insurance for an individual aged 35. indirectly relating to the ﬁxed rate of interest i and lifetable survival probabilities k px . See the following Worked Examples for some relevant formulas..000 at the instant (i. will be included for completeness. but using the Gompertz(3.0918) mortality law previously found to approximate well the realistic Life Table data in Table 1. (i) For a onepaymentperyear levelpremium 30year endowment insurance of 1 on a life aged x. (Also assume. day) of death at any later age.1 on page 150. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
along the same lines as the foregoing Table.3.000 at the end of year of death if death occurs before exact age 55 and pays $60. 1. (a) Find the level premium for a 20year term insurance of $5000 for an individual aged 45. the amount of reduced paidup endowment insurance at the end of 10 years is 0.4
Exercise Set 6
For the ﬁrst problem. that the distribution of deaths within whole years of age is uniform. which pays at the end of the halfyear of death.46e − 3.
05. is retiring immediately with a monthly pension income of 2500 for life. Using the uniformfailure assumption between birthdays and the commutation function values M70 = 26. a life then aged 40 bought a wholelife insurance policy with quarterly premium payments and beneﬁt payable at the end of the quarter of death. Henry.6. who has just reached his 70th birthday. If the insured is now alive at age 65. A life aged 32 purchases a life annuity of 3000 per year.
v 25
where Px:n = Ax:n ax:n ¨ and
t Px
= Ax
ax:t ¨
(4). ﬁnd the expected present value of Henry’s retirement annuity.25) and (6. (6).26). ¨
P20:25 . beginning in 1 month.2 and D70 = 71 associated with the interest rate i = 0.
25 P20
. Suppose that 25 years ago.
.4. then ﬁnd the face amount of paidup insurance which he is entitled to — with no further premiums paid and no further loading applied — on a wholelife policy with beneﬁts payable at the end of quarteryear of death. (7).07 for all t > 0. assuming interest at 5% and constant forceofmortality µ40+t = 0.
a20:25 . Find the cash value of a wholelife insurance for $100. Assume that the interest rate used to ﬁgure present values and premiums on the policy was 6% and that the lifetable survival probabilities used were t p40 = (60 − t)/60. we ﬁnd commutation function values N32 = 2210 . (b) in 1 year. with loadingfactor 4%. 000 on a life aged 45 with yearly premiumpayments (which began at issuance of the policy) after 25 years. Verify formulas (6. (7). D33 = 105
Find the net single premium for the annuity purchased if the ﬁrst yearly payment is to be received (a) immediately. N34 = 1988 . and (c) in 2 years. EXERCISE SET 6 (3). From tables. Give a formula for A45 in terms of the following quantities alone:
25 p20
167
. (5).
4) to obtain D50 = 1. . COMMUTATION & RESERVES
6. Mx = Mx+1 + v x+1 dx
Filling these values in for x = 49. 48. One way of understanding what commutation columns do is to remark that all wholelife net single premiums of this type are calculable directly from the tablefragment given along with the single additional number A50 = 0. Nx . The point is that all of the commutation columns Dx . on lives aged 45 to 50.on a population of potential insureds: x 45 46 47 48 49 50 lx 75000 74250 73490 72720 71940 71150 dx 750 760 770 780 790
Let us imagine that the going rate of interest is 5% APR. . Mx for ages 45 to 49 can now be ﬁlled in.99 d 0.05x lx and the simple recursive calculations Nx = Nx+1 + Dx .05
Next we ﬁll in the rest of the columns for ages 45 to 49 by the deﬁnition of Dx as 1.450426.05−50 71150 = 6204. and that we are interested in calculating various life insurance and annuity riskpremiums for levelbeneﬁt contracts and payments only on policy anniversaries (m = 1).168
CHAPTER 6. 45 gives the completed fragment
.05 D50 (1 − A50 ) = (D50 − M50 ) = 71606. . . which we imagine to be available together with data also for all older ages.69
1. we use the identity (6. N50 = D50 a50 = ¨ M50 = D50 0. First.5
Illustration of Commutation Columns
Consider the following articial lifetable fragment.450426 = 2794.54.
and using Table 6.
6.25 7418. Now. then the ﬁnal amount ﬁgured using purerisk premiums would be
4729.53 71606.6.24) to the Example.81 3165.11 98808.85 91390. 000 · M45 /(N45 − N50 ) = 18631.69
169
From this table fragment we can deduce.64 77811. that a wholelife annuitydue of $2000 per year to a life aged 47 has expected present value 2000 N47 /D47 = 24637.24 7870. 000 with level annual premiums and has paid premiums for 15 years.78. for example.57 . EXAMPLES ON PAIDUP INSURANCE x 45 46 47 48 49 50 lx 75000 74250 73490 72720 71940 71150 dx 750 760 770 780 790 Dx 8347. Applying formula (6.06 1486. t = 15. Solution. 000 with level premiums payable for 5 years to a life aged 45 has level purerisk premiums of 200.45 6587.47 2891.11 6204. Using the APR interest rate of 6% and commutator columns given in Table 6.gives F = 100.79 = 60077.76 6991. 000 D65 − N65 D50 N50 (D65 − d N65 )
If the new insurance premium were to be ﬁgured with a loading such as L = 0. 000. the insured wants to stop paying premiums and convert the cash value of the insurance into (the net single premium for) a fully paidup wholelife insurance.66 .06 12110. 000 = 100. or that a wholelife insurance of 200. being aged 65. with x = 50.07 3066.31 12110.10 84398. Suppose that a life aged 50 has purchased a whole life insurance for $100.80 2794. paidup insurance policy. or that a ﬁveyear term insurance of 100.55 1486.01 − 56988.54 Nx 106679.85 2972. 000 to a life aged 45 has net single premium 100000 · (M45 −M50 )/D50 = 5661.1.01 − 1.79
.02.6
Examples on Paidup Insurance
Example 1. B = 100.48 0.99 Mx 3267.1 and disregarding premium loading. calculate the face amount of the new.6.
257391 (D15 − D20 ) 1. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
divided by 1. but that after 15 years the purchaser can aﬀord no more premium payments.257391 (D0 − D20 )
and using Table 6. substituting the approximate formula (5.06. we ﬁnd F = 50000 · 1− 1.170
CHAPTER 6. 000 on a newborn governed by the lifetable and commutator columns in Table 6. based upon an incomplete stream of premium payments. Disregarding loading. such as an endowment. because the cash value would then be regarded as a single risk premium which when inﬂated by the factor 1+L purchases the contract of expected present value F · Ax+t .1 it follows that F = 42400. The same ideas can be applied to the reﬁguring of the amount of other insurance contracts.6). Now the prospective formula for cash value or reserve based on initial beneﬁt amount B is B
5 p15
v −
5
20 p0
v
20
a15:5 ¨ a0:20 ¨
(2)
(2)
1 which will be used to balance the endowment F A15:5 . Suppose that a 20year pure endowment for 50. where i = 0.1. Example 2.
. and assuming uniform distribution of deathtimes within single years of age. α(2) = 1. Therefore.02. what is the beneﬁt amount which the child is entitled to receive at age 20 if then alive ? Solution. we obtain
F = B ·
5 p15
v −
5
20 p0
v
20
α(2) a0:20 − β(2)(1 − ¨
α(2) a15:5 − β(2)(1 − 5 p15 v 5 ) ¨
(2) 20 p0
(2)
v 20 )
( 5 p15 v 5 )
In the particular example.000212. with seminannual premiums.000212 (N15 − N20 ) − 0. and β(2) = 0.91 .257391.000212 (N0 − N20 ) − 0.
150
1 t Vx:n
1 = A1 ¨ x+t:n−t − Px:n · ax+t:n−t
p. 150 ax:n = α(m) ¨
(m)
Nx − Nx+n Dx+n − β(m) (1 − ) Dx Dx p.7.
ax = ¨
Nx Dx p. 148
Nx =
∞ y=x
v ly =
y
∞ y=x
Dy . 155
. Dx
A1 = x:n
Mx − Mx+n Dx p. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 6
171
6. 149 A(m)1 = x:n i i(m) · Mx − Mx+n Dx p.7
Useful formulas from Chapter 6
Commutation Columns Dy = v y ly . Mx =
∞ y=x
v y+1 dy p.6. Dx
Ax =
Mx . 148
n Ex
=
Dx+n . 149
n−1
ax:n = ¨
k=0
v k+x
Nx − Nx+n lx+k = Dx Dx p. 148
Mx = D x − d N x p.
157 v t t px t Vx:n = − Ax:t − Px:t ax:n ¨ p.172
CHAPTER 6. 157
1 1 v t t px t Vx:n = − A1 − Px:n ax:n ¨ x:t
p. 155
1 Ax:n = A1 + v t t px A1 x:t x+t:n−t
p. 157 Ax:n = A1 + v t t px Ax+t:n−t x:t p. 158
. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
t Vx:n
= Ax+t:n−t − Px:n · ax+t:n−t ¨ p. 157 ¨ ¨ ax:n = ax:t + v t t px ax+t:n−t ¨ p. 155 Px:n = 1 ax:n ¨ −d p. 157
1 Vx:n = v n−t n−t px+t
− v n n px 1 − t Vx:n p. 155
t Vx:n
= ax+t:n−t Px+t:n−t − Px:n ¨
= 1−
ax+t:n−t ¨ ax:n ¨ p.
7. 164
. USEFUL FORMULAS FROM CHAPTER 6
173
1 Vx:n = (1 − v n n px ) t Vx:n + v n n px − v n−t
n−t px+t
p.6. 158
1 t Vx:n
= v px+t
1 t+1 Vx:n
1 + v qx+t − Px:n
p. 162
Paidup insurance Amt
= B 1−
ax+t ¨ ax ¨
(1 − d ax+t ) ¨ p.
216
CHAPTER 6. COMMUTATION & RESERVES
.
The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. Chicago. vol. H. 1967 [8] Kalbﬂeisch. 3rd ed. R. 5th ed. S. 2nd ed. Wiley.. An Introduction to Probability and its Applications. Wiley. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. W. R. Life Contingencies. PrenticeHall. N. and Oakes. Society of Actuaries.. C. D. New York. W. 1970 [10] Larsen. New York 1980 [9] Kellison. and Nesbitt. New York.Bibliography
[1] Bowers. 1997 [6] Hogg. and Prentice. V. J. Hickman. W. Chapman and Hall. SpringerVerlag. 2nd ed. 1997 [7] Jordan. PrenticeHall Simon & Schuster. vol. D. II. 1982 217
. Ill. Probability and Statistical Inference. Irwin. H. New York. Wiley. M. I. Ill. and Marx. 3rd ed. Introduction to Probability Theory and Statistical Inference. H. R. Gerber. R.. Englewood Cliﬀs. 1986 [2] Cox. London 1984 [3] Feller. Itasca. 1957 [4] Feller. New York. Wiley. E. 1971 [5] Gerber. and Tanis. Life Insurance Mathematics. NJ 1985 [11] Larson. C. The Theory of Interest. Jones. Actuarial Mathematics Society of Actuaries. D. J. Homewood. Analysis of Survival Data. New York. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. 2nd ed.
. Introduction to Demography. Modern Applied Statistics with Splus. MathSoft Inc. 2nd ed.4. 1988. E. version 3. Chicago. B. Univ. M. of Chicago. W. 1968 [15] Venables. 1996 [14] Spiegelman. 1980 [13] Splus. T. SpringerVerlag. Revised ed. and Ripley. 1998
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
[12] Lee.
Solutions and Hints to Selected Problems
219
.