Survey of Likely November Voters in

Miami-Dade County
September 2020
 METHODOLOGY
500 Likely November 2020 Election
Sample Size Voters in Miami-Dade County

Dates of Interview September 1st – September 4th, 2020

Languages of Interview English, Spanish

Margin of Error +/- 4.4 percentage points

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 2

 VOTING ISSUES

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County

 When participating in the November 3rd, 2020 Election, which
method of voting do you intend to use – voting by mail, in person
early voting, or voting at your precinct on election day?

37% 69% of people will have voted

32% before election day
26%

5%

Vote by mail In person early voting Voting at precinct on election day Don’t know/No answer

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 4

 When participating in the November 3rd, 2020 Election, which
method of voting do you intend to use – voting by mail, in person
early voting, or voting at your precinct on election day?
BY AGE

18-29 30-49 50-64 65+

Vote by mail 53% 29% 33% 45%

In person early voting 29% 38% 36% 22%

Voting at precinct on
election day
18% 31% 21% 29%
Don’t know/No
answer
- 2% 10% 4%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 5

 When participating in the November 3rd, 2020 Election, which
method of voting do you intend to use – voting by mail, in person
early voting, or voting at your precinct on election day?
BY PARTY

Democrat Republican Independent

Vote by mail 42% 31% 36%

In person early voting 34% 28% 32%

Voting at precinct on
election day
19% 37% 28%

Don’t know/No answer 5% 4% 4%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 6

 When participating in the November 3rd, 2020 Election, which
method of voting do you intend to use – voting by mail, in person
early voting, or voting at your precinct on election day?
BY RACE

White Black Hispanic

Vote by mail 42% 29% 39%

In person early voting 39% 41% 25%

Voting at precinct on
election day
16% 22% 33%

Don’t know/No answer 3% 8% 3%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 7

Given the current coronavirus pandemic how concerned are you with
the safety of participating in this November’s election – Very
concerned, somewhat concerned, somewhat unconcerned, or not
concerned at all?

Very / Somewhat concerned 33% 19% 52%

Somewhat unconcerned 4%

Not concerned at all 44%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 8

Given the current coronavirus pandemic how concerned are you with
the safety of participating in this November’s election – Very
concerned, somewhat concerned, somewhat unconcerned, or not
concerned at all?
BY PARTY

Democrat Republican Independent

Very/Somewhat concerned 61% 34% 57%

Somewhat unconcerned 7% 2% 1%

Not concerned at all 32% 64% 42%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 9

Given the current coronavirus pandemic how concerned are you with
the safety of participating in this November’s election – Very
concerned, somewhat concerned, somewhat unconcerned, or not
concerned at all?
BY RACE

White Black Hispanic

Very/Somewhat concerned 57% 68% 44%

Somewhat unconcerned 3% 9% 3%

Not concerned at all 40% 23% 53%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 10

 IMAGE RATINGS

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County

 Donald Trump

Very / Somewhat Favorable 33% 10% 43%

Somewhat / Very Unfavorable 7% 45% 52%
Do not recognize

No answer 5%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 12

 Donald Trump
BY PARTY

Democrat Republican Independent

Favorable 14% 85% 45%

Unfavorable 77% 12% 50%

Do not recognize/
No answer
9% 3% 5%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 13

 Donald Trump
BY RACE

White Black Hispanic

Favorable 46% 12% 53%

Unfavorable 51% 71% 44%

Do not recognize/
No answer
3% 17% 3%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 14

 Donald Trump
BY HERITAGE

Non-Cuban
Cuban
Hispanic

Favorable 73% 40%

Unfavorable 27% 57%

Do not recognize/
No answer
- 3%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 15

 Joe Biden

Very / Somewhat Favorable 37% 18% 55%

Somewhat / Very Unfavorable 8% 28% 36%

Do not recognize 3%

No answer 6%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 16

 Joe Biden
BY PARTY

Democrat Republican Independent

Favorable 82% 17% 51%

Unfavorable 12% 74% 35%

Do not recognize/
No answer
6% 9% 14%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 17

 Joe Biden
BY RACE

White Black Hispanic

Favorable 49% 83% 47%

Unfavorable 44% 6% 44%

Do not recognize/
No answer
7% 11% 9%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 18

 Joe Biden
BY HERITAGE

Non-Cuban
Cuban
Hispanic

Favorable 32% 57%

Unfavorable 63% 31%

Do not recognize/
No answer
5% 12%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 19

 PRESIDENTIAL
HORSERACE

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County

 2012 Presidential Election Results in Miami-Dade County

62% OBAMA +24%

38%

OBAMA/BIDEN ROMNEY/RYAN

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 21

 2016 Presidential Election Results in Miami-Dade County

63% CLINTON +29%

34%

3%

CLINTON/KAINE TRUMP/PENCE Others

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 22

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?

55% BIDEN +17%

38%

2% 4%
1%
BIDEN/HARRIS TRUMP/PENCE Not voting for President Someone else Don't know/No answer

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 23

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY GENDER

Male Female

Biden/Harris 53% 56%

Trump/Pence 38% 37%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 9% 7%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 24

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY PARTY

Democrat Republican Independent

Biden/Harris 81% 16% 51%

Trump/Pence 12% 80% 33%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 7% 4% 16%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 25

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY METHOD OF VOTING

In Person At Precinct on
Vote By Mail
Early Voting Election Day

Biden/Harris 66% 54% 36%

Trump/Pence 28% 34% 58%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 6% 12% 6%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 26

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY RACE

White Black Hispanic

Biden/Harris 48% 84% 46%

Trump/Pence 44% 7% 47%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 8% 9% 7%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 27

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY LANGUAGE OF INTERVIEW

English Spanish

Biden/Harris 65% 33%

Trump/Pence 27% 60%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 8% 7%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 28

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

US-Born Foreign-Born

Biden/Harris 67% 38%

Trump/Pence 24% 56%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 9% 6%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 29

 If the election for President and Vice President of the United States
were being held today and the candidates on the ballot were the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence or the Democratic
ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – whom would you vote for?
BY HERITAGE

Non-Cuban
Cuban
Hispanic

Biden/Harris 30% 58%

Trump/Pence 68% 32%

Other/Don’t know/No answer 2% 10%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 30

 2016 Presidential Exit Poll Results
BY CUBAN VOTERS IN FLORIDA

Cuban Voters

Clinton/Kaine 41%

Trump/Pence 54%
SOURCE: NBC NEWS 2016 FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLL

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 31

 2012 Presidential Exit Poll Results
BY CUBAN VOTERS IN FLORIDA

Cuban Voters

Obama/Biden 49%

Romney/Ryan 47%
SOURCE: NBC NEWS 2012 FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLL

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 32

 DEMOGRAPHICS

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County

 COUNTRY OF BIRTH
48%

23%

9%
6%
3% 4%
2% 2% 2% 1%
United States Cuba South America Central America Dominican Republic Puerto Rico Haiti Jamaica/Bahamas Mexico Other

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 34

 PARENT/GRANDPARENT
COUNTRY OF BIRTH
59%

14%
11%
6% 4%
1% 2% 2% 1%
United States Cuba Central America South America Puerto Rico Haiti Mexico Other No answer

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 35

 GENDER

Male

53% 47%
Female

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 36

 LANGUAGE

33%
English

67% Spanish

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 37

 REGION
36%

32% 32%

South Northeast Northwest

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 38

 PARTY

Democrat
24%
Republican 46%
Independent 30%

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 39

 The media generally classifies most people as Black, White,
Hispanic, Asian or Native American, which do you consider
yourself to be?

57%

22%
18%
3%

Hispanic White Black Asian/Other

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 40
 AGE

31% 30% 29%

10%

18-29 30-49 50-64 65+

Survey of Likely November 2020 Voters in Miami-Dade County 41
 Survey of Likely November Voters in Miami-Dade County
September 2020

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