Lifestyles and Farming

David Smith
Chief executive

Global Futures and Foresight
Copyright © Global Futures and Foresight Limited 2010

Global Futures & Foresight

Agenda
• Lifestyles in the future
– How and where will we live – What will we eat – Consumer behaviour

• Agriculture in the future

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“The size of the world economy will triple over the next four decades as emergingmarket economies wield increasing power”
January 4th 2011 HSBC Holdings Plc

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.acus.org/files/images/economy-cube.preview.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.acus.org/content/globaleconomy&usg=__rACqlAkbwMjwpRWx9t0cPV5GUag=&h=500&w=491&sz=38&hl=en&start=201&zoom=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=BtM7lLKFK5WlVM:&tbnh=130&tbnw=128&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dglobal%2Becon omy%26start%3D198%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26rlz%3D1R2ADRA_enGB348%26ndsp%3D18%26tbs%3Disch:1

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Five Mega Trends
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Climate change and pollution
Finding solutions

Globalisation
Global business, multi-regional, local CSR

New consumption patterns
Moral economy and informed consumers

Changes in the world of work
War for talent and productivity

Energy and resources
Towards sustainable business
h"p://csr-­‐news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-­‐and-­‐the-­‐future-­‐of-­‐ corporate-­‐social-­‐responsibility/

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CHANGING POPULATIONS
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Global population growth

The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050
www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org

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Where will people live?
N.America Europe

33 448 7
S.America

732 691
Africa

Asia

4054 5231

577 72 9

973 1998

2009

2050
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Source : United Nations

Urbanization

1950 - 2030

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Islamic population
• • • • Global population increases by 2.5 bn from 2005 to 2050 Muslim countries will contribute 1.75 bn people. (70%). In 2005, Muslims represented 24% of world population. This will rise to 33% in 2050 and 37% by 2100.

$2.7 trillion today $30 trillion by 2050 1
http://www.freeworldacademy.com/globalleader/population.htm

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Ageing populations

Percentage of Global population over 60

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Life expectancy v income per capita

Source: www.gapminder.org

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And we’re living longer lives
 Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even 1000.

“The first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already”

Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20th April 1963 -

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Obesity

By 2050 40% of US population obese.

By 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese.
(The World Health Organisation)

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Too few kids

Children per woman worldwide
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CHANGING SOCIETY
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Changing households
• • Average people per home relates to living standards. Africa and the Middle East lowest per capita GDP and highest numbers living in household – average 4.7.
– Asia Pacific 4.1 – Latin America 4.0

The industrialised nations of
– Australasia 2.7 – Western Europe 2.6 – North America 2.5

Occupancy

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Changing households
• • Rising affluence reduces number of children. The birth rate in developed economies:
– Western EU 11.9 live births per 100,000 people – North America 14.0

Birth rates higher in developing economies:
– Africa and Middle East 33.8 – Latin America and Caribbean 19.2

32.7% of EU homes - couples with children.
– 51% in Asia Pacific – 54.3% in Africa and the Middle East.

Children

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WHAT DO THEY EAT

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Food, lifestyles and farming
“We are beginning to realise that the era of food surpluses has come to an end”
Financial Times, January 2011

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Key food trends
• • • • • • Personalization Urbanization Sustainability Rising transport costs Health and wellness On demand information

http://www.image-acquire.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/500x_firstforbes.jpg

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World food demand doubles to 2050
• 50% increase from population growth.
– All in developing countries

50% increase from economic growth.
– in low income countries

Dr. Robert Thompson, University of Illinois

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What influences food requirements
Changing demographics
• • • • The ageing population and increase in height increases energy requirements. Declining fertility and increasing urbanization decreases energy needs. Developing countries needs to double plant-energy by 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa needs to triple plant energy production.
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http://www.fao.org/docrep/x0262e/x0262e23.htm

What influences food requirements
Women - Key to balancing food and population
• • Women produce most food for local consumption in the developing world. Women grow and sell most food:
– 80-90%. in sub-Saharan Africa – 60-90% of Asia's food, – 46% of the Caribbean's – 30% of Latin America's.

The State of World Population - UNFPA

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Eating more meat
• Increasing prosperity leads to a doubling of global meat production by the year 2050.
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

• •

Meat consumption in the developing world increased 17% between 2000-2010. Industrial world eats twice as much meat per person.

http://starglobaltribune.com/2011/low-fat-food-new-method-can-produce-low-fat-sausages-thattaste-just-as-good-as-the-original-3828 http://www.worldwatch.org/vs2010

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Food pricing
• • Food prices to triple by 2050.
International Food Policy Research Institute .

Without climate change prices rise:
– 40% for wheat – 60% for both rice and maize by 2050
• As the world population grows.

With climate change factored in:
– Wheat prices to rise 170% to 194% – Rice prices 113% to 121% – Maize to go up 148% to 153%.

investment of $7bn a year (€4.8bn) needed.
– `New technologies and education
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ‘Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation’ November 2009 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-impact-agriculture-and-costs-adaptation

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Personalized nutrition 2028
• Forces driving personalized nutrition:
– – – – Non-invasive biomonitoring technology. Inexpensive individual genetic profiling. Nutrigenomic knowledge Artificial intelligence and data-mining

http://www.thednawealthcreator.com/images/superstock_1098r-6105b.medium.jpg

http://food.fleishmanhillard.com/whatsinstore/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/food2028whitepaper.pdf

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Nanofood market 2015
Nanotechnology - control of matter at an atomic or molecular scale of between one and 100 nanometres (nm) - that's one millionth of a millimetre.

• • • •

€ 2bn in 2003 € 4.18bn in 2005 €15.79bn in 2015. Its potential benefits:
– – – – – Boosted nutrient levels Functionality Quality Structure Texture control and safety.

Nanotechnology may also be able to reduce fat levels in meat.
Helmut Kaiser Consultancy,
http://blog.bioethics.net/image.jpg

http://www.nutraingredients.com/Industry/We-need-to-talk-about-nanofoods-says-UK-group

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Aquaculture 2015 & 2025
• • Annual production tripled in15 years. By 2015, aquaculture 39% of global seafood production by weight. “Global aquaculture production will have to increase by 500% by the year 2025 to meet the projected needs of a world population of 8.5 billion people,“
ASA President Johnny Dodson

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OORyagu8ETY/SpnryKF1AvI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/dke4pnF81lY/s400/fish-farming.jpg

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=20742462

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Halal food sales 2020
• • • • • • Halal food sales $640bn annually. To exceed $850bn by 2020. Roots in the Middle East and Asia. Muslim populations in Africa and China. Growing amongst Europe’s 50m Muslims. America and Australasia are also growing.
http://www.arksign.com/images/Neon%20-%20Halal.jpg

http://halalworld.org/html/images/report/Halal%20foodobserving%20growthFood%20NewsComment.pdf

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CONSUMERS

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E7 to catch G7 in 2019
Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
60000 50000

Convergence

Catch-up

Overtaking

GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

G7 Canada France, Germany Italy Japan UK USA
Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter

E7 China India Brazil Mexico Russia Indonesia Turkey

G7 GDP E7 GDP

20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30

Source: PwC: January 2010 http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=3547&NewsAreaID=2

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Consumers (000’s)
5 billion consumers

650 million consumers

Source: UN Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/

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Consumer outlook - Asia
• • • • • The whole of Asia, excluding Japan, spends $5,500bn a year on personal consumption. (HSBC) $17,600bn in the US and Europe. China‘s growth is explosive. But average incomes are lower than in Albania.
Frederic Neumann, Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong

China is capable of boosting consumption by up to 50% per head by 2025
– 36% of GDP – lowest of any major economy – 50% by 2025.
Study by Jonathan Woetzel for McKinsey Global Institute

Source: HSBC, quoted in the FT, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87fb0322-0945-11df-ba88-00144feabdc0.html

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Consumer outlook - China
• China’s annual consumption will increase six times by 2027 to $10 trillion annually
Goldman’s Jim O’Neill.

China’s consumer market:
– The world’s 5th biggest. – Overtake U.K. & Germany to No. 3 in 2 years. – Replace Japan as 2nd within 5 years
China International Capital Corp.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4194.html

Source : Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aMoJ.mYeo1cQ

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A new consumer era?

Source: Customer Faithful http://www.slideshare.net/nobblytanner/rising-trends-of-the-post-recession-consumer

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Women take control
• • • Earning and learning more than men. Global earning power of women to reach $18tn by 2014. (World Bank) Global consumer spend $15tn – 70% by 2015. (BCG)

Source: Wealth Bulletin, September 14th 2009 http://www.wealth-bulletin.com/wealth-business/advisers/content/1055164840/ Source:The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR)

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Consumer trends
1. Green with enthusiasm 2. Smart technology 3. Impatience

http://www.techiteasy.org/category/retail/

Source: Euromonitor, March 2010 ://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/03/uk-consumers-in-2020-a-look-into-the-future.html

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Consumer 2020
• • • • • Consumers in 2020 are likely to be more impatient. Technology is enabling consumers to read the news headlines as the news is made. Enables consumers to share reviews and information instantly. Can order something they see immediately. The phone is likely to figure prominently in this instant gratification culture.

Source: Euromonitor, March 2010 ://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/03/uk-consumers-in-2020-a-look-into-the-future.html

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Remote farming for consumers
• FarmVille is the most popular game on Facebook with 73.8m active users in January 2010.
According to Wikipedia

• • •

Italian start-up: Le Verdure Del Mio Orto Consumers remotely control a patch of real land. Provide an edible harvest.
– Build an organic garden from their web browser. – As the produce grows, it’s picked and delivered to the customer’s door within 24 hours. – Weekly deliveries are part of the package.
Global Futures & Foresight

http://www.ceo-of-your-life.com/trendwatchingcom-top-10-business-ideas-for-2010-trendwatching-linkedin-in-trends-futurewatch-businessideas/

Ethical consumerism
“Roughly 40% of the food currently produced worldwide is wasted before it is consumed, creating large opportunities for farmers and households to save both money and resources by reducing this waste.”
Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute

“We are seeing a trend toward ethical consumerism,”
Jens Lönneker, Cologne based Rheingold

http://pennalternativefuels.com/content/innovative-local-farming-key-global-hunger-fight-group-says http://www.greenerpackage.com/green_marketing/interpack%E2%80%99s_eye_sustainability

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Ethical consumerism
• 33% of Finns will refuse to buy a product if they do not approve of its origins. Statistics Finland Finns, and consumers in Sweden, Germany and France, are the most ethically aware in Europe. Almost half of all Finns make their purchases on ethical grounds

http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/htimes/helsinki/business-hub/12256-finnish-shoppers-flex-consumer-muscle-.html

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Global consumer consciousness
• • Consumers Want a product with an "added social benefit." Consumers want companies to:
– Meet their needs and simultaneously – Have a positive impact on society.

Enlightened consumers want their:
– Food to be organic – Their coffee free trade – Their purchases sustainable

Willing to pay a premium for goods from socially responsible companies.
A 2010 CSR Branding Survey

http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3icc3fec8640be4714853d38671ecf3f29

Source: Fast Company, September 2010 http://www.fastcompany.com/1689263/leadership-philanthropy-is-the-gateway-to-power Source: PSB Research, March 2010 http://www.psbresearch.com/PSbBlog/post/2010/03/29/CSR-Branding-Survey-2010-Presentation.aspx

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Enduring and emerging food trends
1. Fast & convenient 2. Regional, seasonal & slow 3. Scientific solutions & functional foods 4. Comfort & nostalgia 5. Sustainable, ethical & fairtrade 6. Natural, pure & organic 7. Health & obesity 8. Indulgence 9. Portability & ready to eat 10. Premiumisation Emergent trends 1. Food politics 2. Food inflation

http://www.bryt.co.uk/media/images/bestbefore.gif

Source: NowAndNext: ‘Food trends 2010+’, August 2010 http://toptrends.nowandnext.com/2010/08/31/food-trends-2010/

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European and Russian consumers
Clear changes in the consumer habits. • • • • • • In Russia - consumption has not yet ended. Desires to spend & save in balance. Europeans spending less. Buying natural products. Save more and spend less in Europe. 64% of Europeans say the economic crisis is here to stay.
Observatoire Cetelem’s 21st yearly survey Research carried out in 12 of the largest European countries http://recent-ecl.blogspot.com/

Source: Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/business/finance/19-04-2010/113079-age_of_the_consumer-0/

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CHANGING CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

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Social business
“we will continue on our mission to change the way people shop locally and serve the world’s local businesses”.
(Jan 2011), CEO Andrew Mason, Groupon

• •

Groupon model has been a success. Growth result of two factors: – An economy pushed consumers into extreme deal seeking. – Small businesses desperate to generate revenue at whatever cost.
Global Futures & Foresight

http://www.tnooz.com/2011/01/14/news/does-the-groupon-model-lead-tourism-businesses-racing-to-the-bottom/

Tryvertising - trysumers
• • • Sample stores, cafes & vending machines Dedicated spaces that facilitate sampling. Attracting consumers through offers of free goods.
– Sampling stores in Spain. – Sampling cafes in Tokyo – Sample vending machines in Belgium.

http://www.ceo-of-your-life.com/trendwatchingcom-top-10-business-ideas-for-2010-trendwatching-linkedin-in-trends-futurewatch-businessideas/

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Sellsumers
• Selling is the new saving:
– a recession-induced need for cash – plus an ever-growing infrastructure

• •

Consumers make money not spend it. Take on the role of marketeer for products they already use and love:
– Promoting concerts by their favourite bands, – Helping small companies launch new products.

http://www.ceo-of-your-life.com/trendwatchingcom-top-10-business-ideas-for-2010-trendwatching-linkedin-in-trends-futurewatch-businessideas/

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Pop-up retail
• • Permanent store that brands take over for a limited time. And in the Netherlands:
– – BrandNew Stores aims to turn those fleeting pop-up shops into a chain concept Creating fixed spaces where brands can temporarily present themselves in a regular retail environment.

http://www.ceo-of-your-life.com/trendwatchingcom-top-10-business-ideas-for-2010-trendwatching-linkedin-in-trends-futurewatch-businessideas/

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ONLINE CONSUMER

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Technology driven innovation
• • • • • 70’s and 80’s - technology-led innovation. 80’s and 00’s marketing-led innovation. Social computing leads us to Social Innovation.
Forrester.

Driven by empowered customers & employees. IT and Marketing to jointly power the era.
– MyStarbuckIdea.com“ – Dell's IdeaStorm.com created – Sourcing customer-led innovation.
http://blogs.forrester.com/cio/2010/02/the-new-era-of-social-innovation.html
http://www.experientia.com/blog/the-new-york-times-on-brand-co-creation/

Source: Forrester, http://blogs.forrester.com/cio/2010/02/the-new-era-of-social-innovation.html

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Not just another channel
50% of online buyers in Europe find products on the Web that they can't find elsewhere.
Forrester.

Source: Cnet, 2010 http://news.cnet.com/business-tech/?keyword=e-commerce

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Online Shopping
“If deliveries completely replaced shopping in “distant stores” there might be a 80% to 90% reduction in carbon emissions.”
George Monbiot in his 2007 book, Heat.

http://carnbikes.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/online_shopping.jpg

h"p://www.triplepundit.com/2009/05/is-­‐the-­‐warehouse-­‐model-­‐the-­‐future-­‐for-­‐grocery-­‐stores/

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Virtual/Online Communities
• • • Virtual communities are not a replacement for the traditional. Virtual spaces are now a leading incubator of communities. Participation inequality is a problem on social platforms, especially when trying to discern group attitudes or thinking.
– – – 90% of users are lurkers 9 % of users contribute sometimes 1% of users actively participate and are responsible for all the action
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http://slwtf.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/kadawe4.jpg

AGRICULTURE

IN THE FUTURE
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How is food produced in the future (family farms, local farming, industrial food production)?

Feeding the world 2050
• Massive changes in farming practices, eating habits and consumption will be needed to feed Earth's population sustainably when it hits nine billion in 2050. French scientists warned Within 40 years, global farming has to be:
– More productive – Use less harmful chemicals, – Curb food losses and waste, – Protect the environment – Reduce agriculture's exposure to price swings.
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National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) and the International Cooperative Centre for Agronomical Research for Development (CIRAD).

Small farmers key
"Agriculture as we know it today is in trouble,“
Worldwatch’s "State of the World 2011" report.

– $1 trillion global economy – 70% of water withdrawals – 15% of greenhouse gas emissions
• much of that from developing countries.

Small farmers would be the key to maintaining food supplies for the world's one billion hungry people.
– Increasing food production is not making a dent in reducing hunger in the world.
Global Futures & Foresight

http://www.mnn.com/your-home/organic-farming-gardening/stories/world-agriculture-threatened-by-water-gluttony-report-sa

Artificial meat 2050
• Low-tech ways are effective to increase yields:
– Reducing the 30-40% food waste. – Better storage facilities and supermarkets. – Consumers in rich countries buy only what they need.

Wild cards:
– Artificial meat, which is made in a giant vat. – Nanotechnology • Important for delivering medication to livestock.
Dr Philip Thornton, a scientist International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi

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Convenience
• • Miniaturize technology for the home. Aquaponics - fish and vegetables are cultured in an artificial ecosystem.
– The plants clean the water – The fish nourish the plants with their waste.

http://blog.casase.it/2009/08/21/biosphere-home-farm-una-fattoria-in-cucina/

Biosphere Home Farm
http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/cliff-kuang/design-innovation/food-2030-printed-demand-crafted-your-diet

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Convenience
• A 3D printer that precisely mixes foods and flavors to produce something edible.
– Delivers elaborate combinations of food. – A rapid heating and cooling chamber

The Cornucopia: MIT's 3D Food Printer
http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/21/the-cornucopia-mits-3d-food-printer-patiently-awaits-the-futu/

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Urbanization

Vertical farming
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Biotechnology 2015
• • Agricultural biotechnology to hit $12 bn in 2015 Driven by:
– – – – – – – Improved crop yield Productivity Cost reduction Pest and diseases resistant crops Food shortages, Declining water supplies changeable environmental conditions.

– Increasing food prices – Population growth Biotech crops - 333 million more acres in 2009.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/11/prweb4776734.htm

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SUSTAINABILITY OF FARMING

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Global warming
• • • • • Average temperature 2100 1.8 to 4 degrees Celsius higher. More frequent, intense and longer:
– floods, droughts and heat waves.

Reduce crop yields in Africa, Asia and Latin America by 20% - 40%. 20% - 30% of species at risk of extinction. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, are drivers of global warming and livestock generates greenhouse gases.
http://www.groupedebruges.eu/pdf/feeding_the_future_booklet_final.pdf

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People in water stress 2005 and 2030
Millions of people

OECD countries

Source: ‘OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030: Key Results’ 2008 http://www.oecd.org/document/26/0,3343,en_2649_34305_40243802_1_1_1_1,00.html

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European sustainability
• Need to:
– Use less energy – Reduce carbon emissions

By 2020, EU to reduce energy needs by 315 TWh (terawatt hour) per year.
– Combating unnecessary use

• •

Water scarcity.
– Water scarcity - major constraint on food production.

Bringing more land into production is not an option.
– Only achieved by clearing the world's rain forests.
http://www.innovationeu.org/news/innovation-eu-vol2-1/0266-renewable-energy.html http://www.sweden.se/eng/Home/Society/Sustainability/Facts/Sustainable-living/

http://www.publicservice.co.uk/feature_story.asp?id=15466

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Agroecology
“the best way to ensure that everyone gets enough to eat is to change what kind of food is produced and improve its distribution’. • This means:
– less meat production – Use of more environmentally sustainable agricultural methods that don’t rely on petrochemicals. – More local and regional production of food
The Worldwatch report backed Soil Association suggestions

http://www.mnn.com/your-home/organic-farming-gardening/stories/world-agriculture-threatened-by-water-gluttony-report-sa

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The EU and GM crops
The EU discourages genetically modified crops.

• •

GM benefits:
– Increased yields – Reduced pesticide

Meet doubling of food demand whilst using:
– Less water – Less land – Less energy

Ever greater use avoided of::
– Fertilisers – Herbicides

http://www.publicservice.co.uk/feature_story.asp?id=15466 http://deltafarmpress.com/management/sustainability-and-biotech-crops-europe

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‘Food 2030’
• 20-year food strategy includes:
– Making land available to grow their own food. – More healthy cooking courses.

Goals:
– Less food waste – More food bought in season to reduce environmental impact – Encouraged to buy sustainably-farmed food – Adopt leaner and healthier diets. – Promote higher crop yield

http://www.permacultureusa.org/2010/01/06/the-looming-food-crisis-and-the-food-2030-report/

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Imagine it
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead

Thank you

indicator@thegff.com

david.smith@thegff.com +44 7932 408901 www.thegff.com www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith davidsmithgff
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