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Banks Sector update

Russia Equity Research
dakova1
18 January 2011

David Nangle
+7 (495) 258 7748
DNangle@rencap.com

Russian banks Svetlana Kovalskaya
+7 (495) 258 7752
SKovalskaya@rencap.com
Outlook for 2011 Armen Gasparyan
+7 (495) 258-7770 x4964
ƒ Macroeconomic trends and sector dynamics form a favourable AGasparyan@rencap.com
backdrop for Russian banks in 2011, in our view:
Kirill Rogachev
1) Macro recovery is under way. An oil price above $90/bbl, a stable rouble, low +7 (495) 258-7770 x4015
inflation (although picking up), and the ongoing recovery in consumer/producer KRogachev@rencap.com
confidence/demand are all net positive for the banking sector.
2) Credit growth is back. Mid-2010 marked a turnaround in the credit growth
cycle, and the annualised sector loan growth over April-November was 18%,
which bodes well for 2011, in our view. Figure 1: 2010 price performance ($, %)
3) Asset quality has turned the corner, to be viewed as a positive going
forward. NPLs are peaking (declining in places), provisioning charges through Bank St Petes 99%
the P&L are clearly trending down from the highs of 2009-1H10, and we
Bank St Petes conv… 91%
expect provision write-backs to start in 2011.
VTB 40%
4) Margin pressure: Past the worst. We expect the asset mix to improve and a
degree of lagged reduced cost of funding to feed through and help in 2011. A Sberbank 23%
potential turnaround in lending rates in 2011, an expectation supported by
recent statements from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) regarding a possible RTS Index 23%
rate hike, would be a welcome positive.
MSCI EMEA Financials 20%
ƒ Sberbank is our top pick for 2011 and our favourite vs VTB in the Bank Vozrozhdenie 14%
large-cap pair trade, for the following key reasons:
Sberbank pref 7%
1) A clearer and superior write-back story. Sberbank was more conservative
in its provisioning policy through the crisis (as at 9M10, its 90-day NPLs were
0% 30% 60% 90% 120%
141% covered by loan loss reserves vs 101% at VTB), and management
expects write-backs to start in 2011 and last for three-to-four years. At VTB, Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
provision releases (if any) are more a 2012-2013 story.
Figure 2: P/B (x) 2011E
2) Sberbank is better positioned for a NIM recovery, as it has a higher
proportion of retail term deposits in its funding (47% at Sberbank vs 13% at Sberbank 1.9
VTB), of which a significant part is due to re-price downwards in early 2011.
Bank Vozrozhdenie 1.8
3) Share price performance: Sberbank’s commons rose 23% vs VTB’s 40% in
2010.
Bank St Petes 1.8
4) Valuations. We estimate the forward RoE of Sberbank/VTB at 28%/13%,
while VTB’s P/B 2011E discount to Sberbank is minimal, at 8%.
VTB (GDRs) 1.7
5) Sberbank is a fundamentally more attractive option, with a clearer-cut
investment case, in our view. The VTB story is now all about M&A, where GEM Banks 1.7
price is an issue and near-term execution risk should not be ignored.
ƒ Bank St Petersburg (BSPB) convertible prefs: Our mid-cap EMEA Banks 1.7
favourite. Following the recent rally in BSPB common stock and later
Vozrozhdenie, we currently see the most value in BSPB convertible prefs. BSPB 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
prefs’ premium to commons is now just 4% (vs our fair premium of 16% and the
historic average of 20%). The dividend yield is a healthy 7% (vs virtually zero for
Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
commons), and the record date is imminent (likely in March 2011).
Summary valuation
EPS EPS
Bloomberg MktCap, Target P/E P/E P/B P/B RoE RoE
Price, $ Rating growth growth
ticker $mn price, $ 2011E,x 2012E,x 2011E x 2012E,x 2011E,% 2012E,%
2011E, % 2012E,%
Sberbank SBER RU 3.56 76,850 4.6 BUY 7.7 7.3 92.6 5.1 1.9 1.6 27.8 23.4
Sberbank pref SBERP RU 2.51 2,510 3.7 BUY 5.4 5.1 92.6 5.1 1.3 1.1 27.8 23.4
VTB VTBR LI 7.27 38,024 6.27 SELL 14.2 11.6 40.1 22.2 1.7 1.6 13.0 14.2
Vozrozhdenie VZRZ RU 51.4 1.221 51 BUY 11.6 8.5 479 36.8 1.8 1.5 17.2 19.7
BSPB STBK RU 5.81 1,640 6.3 HOLD 8.5 6.9 115 23.2 1.8 1.5 23.2 23.3
BSPB conv pref BSPBP RX 6.02 393 7.3 BUY 8.8 7.1 115 23.2 1.8 1.5 23.2 23.3
Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Important disclosures are found at the Disclosures Appendix. Communicated by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange
Commission, which together with non-US affiliates operates outside of the USA under the brand name of Renaissance Capital.

demand deposits. % Figure 2: Sector NPLs. YoY.demand deposits) . RUB** Inflation (CPI). Renaissance Capital estimates Source: CBR. IFRS* Sberbank VTB Sberbank VTB Bank St Petersburg Vozrozhdenie Bank St Petersburg Vozrozhdenie 9% 12% 8% 10% 7% 6% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Source: Company data. Spread between average corporate loan rate and average retail deposit rate (ex . Renaissance Capital estimates Source: CBR. Renaissance Capital estimates Figure 5: Key CBR rates and inflation Figure 6: Nominal average rates. Bank St Petersburg and Vozrozhdenie: 1-day overdue NPLs ** All rates are on loans/deposits with maturity up to 1 year. Retail deposit rate ex. IFRS Figure 4: Russian listed banks' NPLs. Renaissance Capital estimates Source: Company data. % of gross loans. YoY CBR Refinancing rate Retail deposit rate Corporate loan rate Spread CBR Deposit rate (Tom-next) 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% Jan-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Source: CBR. Renaissance Capital estimates Figure 3: Russian listed banks’ provisioning charges. Renaissance Capital estimates * Under banks’ respective definitions: Sberbank and VTB: 90-day overdue NPLs . % of gross loans. % of gross loans Corporate Retail NPLs corporate NPLs retail NPLs total 70% 8% 60% 7% 50% 6% 40% 5% 30% 4% 20% 3% 10% 2% 0% 1% -10% 0% -20% Jul-09 Jul-10 Dec-05 Dec-07 Jan-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-10 Jan-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Source: CBR.18 January 2010 Russian banks Renaissance Capital Sector trends Figure 1: Loan growth.

Renaissance Capital Russian banks 18 January 2010 Stock price performance: Pair trades Figure 9: Sberbank commons vs Sberbank prefs vs VTB – Figure 10: Vozrozhdenie vs BSPB commons vs BSPB convertible prefs – Relative share price performance since 1 January 2010 Relative share price performance since 1 January 2010 Sberbank Sberbank pref VTB Vozrozhdenie BSPB BSPB conv pref 60% 120% 50% 100% 40% 80% 30% 20% 60% 10% 40% 0% 20% -10% 0% -20% -30% -20% -40% -40% Jul-10 Jul-10 Jan-10 Feb-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Source: Bloomberg. Renaissance Capital estimates Figure 11: VTB vs Sberbank – P/B 2011E discount since 1 January 2010 Figure 7: Vozrozhdenie vs BSPB – P/B 2011E premium since 1 January 2010 90% 30% 80% 70% 25% 60% 20% 50% 40% 15% 30% 20% 10% 10% 2% 8% 0% 5% -10% 0% -20% Oct-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-10 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jan-10 Feb-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Oct-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Source: Bloomberg. Renaissance Capital estimates Source: Bloomberg. Renaissance Capital estimates Source: Bloomberg. Renaissance Capital estimates 3 . Renaissance Capital estimates Source: Bloomberg. Renaissance Capital estimates Figure 8: Sberbank: prefs to commons discount since 1 January 2010 Figure 14: Bank St Petersburg: Conv prefs to commons premium since 1 January 2010 35% 60% 29% 50% 30% 40% 25% 30% 20% 20% 15% 10% 4% 10% 0% Jan-10 Feb-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Oct-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-10 Feb-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Source: Bloomberg.

882 4.482 7.15 10.823 1.30 10.105.618.154.5 14.167 5.119 576.203 1.4 14.423) Liability margin 5. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.5 14.999 252.211 Fees/total costs 44.6 19.4 12.34 5.207 179.206 663.472) Effective tax rate 18.372 Asset margin 13.7 13.9 Interbank 499.907 Assets 5.778 NPLs.203 758.0 Fee income 17.931.041 5.162 778.1 4.4 Securities 493.56 5.8 Costs 3.0 Key YoY growth rates.893 Trading income/revenues 8. % 8.805 Tier 1 11.977.921 591.233.622 34.4 Tier 2 6.744 10.814 731.902) (216.444 1. RUB 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E No of ordinary shares. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total revenues 458.871 6.235 373.099 594.202.4 72.0) 538.596.881) (388.30 6.015 425.25 1.0 Branches 857 791 734 602 Deposits 13. % 7.398 Interest-earning assets 5.4 3.325) RoAE 3.6 5.614 Loans/deposits 89.631 Interest-earning assets 6. RUB Figure 15: Sberbank summary sheet.795.2 18.0 Total costs (221.0 11.4 (1.175 317.066 8.57 3.7 47.049 495.69 1.864.4 Other pre-tax items (8.295 605.089 2.92 6.974 6.497 838.066 8.0 3.755 8.7 13.8 79.89 Shareholders’ equity 750.80 Other costs (88.103 Interest-bearing liabilities 5.77 3.973) Other P&L ratios.0 15. RUBmn 579.841 2.736.603) (78.729 Capital ratios.783) (368.0 14.218) Cost/avg assets 3.928 15.511 22.18 January 2011 Russian banks Renaissance Capital Sberbank forecasts.951.277) (271.775 9.0 Revenues 41.379) (137.864 194.4 Payout ratio.251.135 1.244 19.109 582.36 4.614 7.08 6.866 Tax (32.784 Other income 7.787 8. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Minorities 0 0 334 0 0 Int inc/revenues 77.277 Interest-bearing liabilities 5.3) 9.4 21.0 15.517 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Deposits 4.4 2.254 625.4 3.099 Costs.499 19.609 6.0 20.5 78.245) (305. x 1.0 77.9 45.1 45.855) (74.289 Securities 834. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Provisioning charge (97.746 24.7 53.483 802.4 42.736.620 251.232 5.405 648.676.5 17.33 1.892 951.4 85.5 66.0 20.255 (10. 0.3 14.468) (38.0 (12. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Loans (4.0 10. Renaissance Capital estimates 4 .410 699. mn 21.194 101.2) 11.796) (188.40 BVPS 33.208.0 10.081) 5.799 7. RUBmn 464.947 107.468) (377.6 Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Fees/revenues 15.216.228 6.739) (229.4 18.064.691 7.529.7 Operating profit 77.279 401.585 21.921 621.1 Interbank 302.4 46.9 40% EPS (75.565) (161.959) 0 (30.348 32. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 68.6 5.80 6.6 73.049 Spread 7.678 1.4 91.962) (128.0 Float Net profit (75.099.1 14.005 Equity/assets 11.3 Net profit 97.1 91.438.3 ATM's na 12.5 17.666 418.482 7.3 22.265 7.843.902.53 8.584 NPL reserves.5 4.208 259.501 7.5 66.575 29.539 53.31 3.422.5 41.05 11.4 5.845 6.626 Total liabilities 6.099.0 Gross loans 5.90 13. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Margins.755 298.952 814.689) Operating profit 236.070. RUBmn Balance sheet.6 74.675 19.94 5.808 17.2 Pre-tax profit 129.20 Interest expense (241.1 16.894 113.841 31.7 47.276 373.175) (5.653) (115.443.13 4.612.8 18.587 EPS 4.0 10.932) (173.233.3 20.7 12.9 State (CBR) 60% Per share data.7 70.21 13.812 31.624) (155.280.396 155.1) 1.347.047.156 513.536 Reserves/NPLs.13 0.618.775 9.32 1.25 3.0 20.00 .795) (312.864) 0 0 0 0 RoAA 0.031 5.110 Deposits/liabilities 76.0 20.744 10.0 18.5 11.72 3.37 Net interest income 378.105. % 12.755.423.435 7.545 6.717 477.40 Income statement.157 502.589 Fees/staff costs 78.412 315.99 DPS 0.962 1.1 4.796 368.619 9.97 Credit charge.873 591.7 Employees 243.1 13.42 1.587 21.015 394.218 513.972 8.805 NPLs/gross loans.073 639.65 1.6 5.5 14.0 Staff costs (132.4 91.9 68. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 6.1 17.153. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 619.279) (325.4 78.777) (100.0) 538.4 12.0 Source: Company data.550 8.921 29.25 Net fee income 86.7 Liabilities Total 18.089 124.3 23.1 27.490.05 6.962 782.4 16.8 23.587 21.4 15.2 34.59 4.007.1 Mini/sub branches 19.48 0.077.894 107.6 Net loans 5.587 21.880 Cost/income 35.201) 54.3 20.175) (326.6 13.090 2.8 Dividend on pref shares 650 630 1.948 NIM 8.4 88.0 82.3 Dividend on ordinary shares 10.344.83 Trading income (13.6 79.162 941.191 Profitability ratios.339 149.

$mn 19.4 21.886 283.587 EPS 0.073 14.3 13.4) 605.578) (3.204 61.6 17.769 21.59 4.709 Tier 1 11.454 18.4 5.622) (2.1 92.4 3.914 16.2 11.208 259.0 Costs (18.786 3.02 0. % 12.024 Costs.747 23. % 8.8 Fees/total costs 44.670 245.250 NIM 8.9 2.058) Profitability ratios.402 51.674) (11.398 Deposits 10. $mn Balance sheet.620 251. % 1.560 285.624 213.859) Asset margin 13.8 Employees 243.746) (9.934 Total 18.02 0.6 13.288 236.250 216. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre-tax items (357) 0 0 0 0 RoAE 3.1 12.8 79.475) (13.0 Other costs (3.756) Minorities 0 0 12 0 0 Other P&L ratios.155 277.0 10.076 11.0 (2.0 Gross loans 179.0 10.991 368.20 Net interest income 15.244 19.920 20.53 8.80 6.988 25.2 Revenues 11.986 16.4 12.011 Deposits/liabilities 76.147 1. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.168 42.0 14.9 Interbank 16.103 Trading income/revenues 8.97 Credit charge.6 Net profit 3. $ 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 60% No of ordinary shares.7 47.049 1.103 Assets 3.05 11.9 20.200 4.347 Liability margin 5.15 10.4 Pre-tax profit 5.4 3. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (5.0 9.46 0.203 323.348 5.9 16.5 78.4) 605.945 190. $mn 15.25 1.8 Total costs (8.1 16.9) 35.242 15.245 6.5 4.9 23.8 23.4 Liabilities Tier 2 6.359) (2.675 19.6 5.487 33.0 11.3 22.0 14.640) (7.451) (12.859 268.3 Source: Company data.3) 17.7 Interbank 10.424 Equity/assets 11.305 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 201.4 2.2 Net profit (80.5 1.266 20.474 3.4 42.0 77.723 Shareholders’ equity 25.00 0.587 21.937) (7.4 13. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans (6.1 Mini/sub branches 19.5 25.720 181.0 Operating profit 9.586 28.6 5.214 Spread 7.9 Operating profit 39. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 68.533 25.360 29.819 NPLs.312) (6.4 Payout ratio.359) (4.8 ATM's na 12.40 Income statement.13 4.430 56.111 1.65 1.288 236.587 21.636) Cost/avg assets 3.1 19.6 79.147 248.111 13.755 NPLs/Gross loans.5 66.449 Capital ratios.7 12.297 1.4 72.924 222.2 Tax (1.084 223.443 346.83 Other income 292 (319) 176 195 213 Total revenues 18.1 17.6 21.207 Margins.3 3.1 4. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 24.0 10.940 772 5.05 0.37 Net fee income 3.736 285.686 18.357 24.7 47.035 20.482) (11.905 208.49 DPS 0.03 0. 0.272 21.793 13.1 14.796 3.6 13.6 74. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 229.4 46.835) (5.547) Cost/Income 35.186) (4.6 Net loans 172.05 6.808 17.56 5.147 Interest-earning assets 206.6 19.477 20.9) 1.048 304. $ Figure 16: Sberbank summary sheet. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (9.999 252.4 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets 3.608 64.484 20.991 368.3 20.709 NPL reserves.8) 30.394 25.94 5.6 5.111 14.4 78.585 21.034) (4.30 10.3 Dividend on pref shares 26 20 38 73 77 Fees/staff costs 78. Renaissance Capital estimates 5 .257 12.6 13.30 6.1 91.1 40% State (CBR) Per share data.907 Fee income (7.92 6.6 19.0 20.014 Loans/deposits 89.1 Float EPS (80.835 161.0 3.514 252.291 310.00 .42 1.183) Effective tax rate 18.25 Trading income (532) 1.511 22.909 33.36 4.237 945 6.6 3.4 88.9 Branches 857 791 734 602 Interest-bearing liabilities 3.875 13.0 10.580 Deposits 163.2 20.614 261.447) (6.203 323.842 20.884) (10.214 181.017 Total liabilities 229.1 45.587 21.803 35.720 1.5 11.798 27. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 77.2 92.17 0.539 13.3 Dividend on ordinary shares 437 93 545 1.25 3.9 68.34 5.082) 0 (1.4 Securities 16.6 73.5 17.297) (173) (1.9 45.05 BVPS 1.8 13.8 3.0 Key YoY growth rates.499 19.1 27.799 3.0 82.1 Securities 28.1 4.305 25.24 0.6 13.446 10. % 7.2 18.4 85.221 21.841 Provisioning charge (3.7 70.560 285.7 13.Renaissance Capital Russian banks 18 January 2011 Sberbank forecasts.026 Fees/revenues 15.1 1.945) (12.258) (9.89 Reserves/NPLs.0 20. mn 21.72 3.489 11.782 RoAA 0.072) (5.1 1.515 22.

9 Tax (13.988) (17.905 2.630 Total revenues 149.0 ATM's na na na na Fee income 28. mn 3.3 17.6) 5.8 15.56 134.268.1 5.101.309.193.0 5.1 19.379.8) 8.4 13.3 14.4 24.200 173.339 281. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 3.0 5.93 DPS 0.6 72. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans (9.992 40.2 25.811 Deposits 1.230 EPS 1.0 Operating profit 81.100 824.634 145.951 3.014 Spread 4.5 53.0 19.500 89.420.3 23.8 6.0 1.9 47.0 30.9 27.0 Revenues 11.1 EPS (1.400) 54.555.693 424.1 9.9 48.358.7 Net interest income 113.006 6. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 92.527.2 5.640.2 4.200 373.190 93.9 Employees 28.697.477) Effective tax rate 12.742) Cost/income 46.237.6 131.965 575.810 3.809 367.095 94.669 3.300 551.3 16.6 16.500 498.558 16.8 18.400 502.576 NPL reserves.800) 3.516 620.3 78.9 13.340 Costs.57 17.5 Interbank 1.281 2.878 NIM 4.5% Per share data.697.2 79.061 4.4 10.862 Provisioning charge (63.876 4.8 31.2 Credit charge.688) Asset margin 11.943 5.971.0 81.650.400 681.0 10.3 23.846 Total 20.42) 10.000) (36.576 Tier 1 14.000) 12.6 Securities 786.062 118.9 13.010 885.0 19.4 49.200) (154.125.230 5.150 547.04 105.219 3.500) (40.800 3.850) (115.900 1.1 5.700 334.500) 8.227 Shareholders’ equity 389.800 3.5 25.600 152.3 15.114 221.18 January 2011 Russian banks Renaissance Capital VTB forecasts.998.8 Interbank 671.978 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 3.468 7. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 245.9 1.400 3.880 4.54 Reserves/NPLs.434 125. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (36.43 (16. RUBmn 234.300 2.703) Profitability ratios.5 2.795 Fees/revenues 12.319.4 22.300 2.577 0 (1.4 14.343) (205.007.460 14.8) (186.500 553.116.214 41.2) 10.0 10.35 7.430 3.8 9. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.872) (22.400 3.5 20.000 749.106.362 5.503 Total liabilities 3.900 3. x 0.159 RoAA (1.7) 1.8 Gross loans 2.700) (1.527.0 16.800 2.26 5.335) (56.943 5.700) (53.2 5.511 3.79 BVPS 115.460 246.900 568.3) 39.100 117.771.067 5. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (131.811 Capital ratios.89 1.707) (134.9 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets (4.700 (11.2 Branches 506 583 693 649 Interest-bearing liabilities (3.3 31.95 1.05 1.717.0 13.7 5.16 1.4 1.1 Net profit 4.900 285.7 16.5% Net profit (1.610. % 9.2 Free float Operating profit 9.600 2.339) (31.544.4 Securities 131.1 52.685 76.505 Margins.800 3.780 32.8 4.9 4.8 7.400 757.46 14.1 46.619 9.300 21.1 Net fee income 16.600) (221.77 9.836.8 Total costs (67.716 4.7 19.800 (63.425 596.116.600 273.45 118.7 15.230 5.425 568.3) 10.000) 0 0 RoAE (14. % 5.372) (77.568.0 Key YoY growth rates.2 135.956 Loans/deposits 147.500) (161.9 13.2 Pre-tax profit 18.1 2.700 3.450) Minorities 200 (3.100 (68.46 1.7 Dividend on pref shares na na na na na Fees/staff costs 52.635 NPLs.388.1 State 85.100) (42.380 Trading income/revenues (6.817 Liability margin 7.1 14. RUB Figure 17: VTB summary sheet.087 704.7) 39. RUBmn Balance sheet.96 1.8 48. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre-tax items (200) (2.363 Deposits/liabilities 43.850 3.9) 8.200 (11.9 5. RUBmn 248.6 Other income 4.900) (49.447 Deposits 42.0 20.70 Source: Company data.234 191.7 13.800 330.1 Payout ratio.3 Net loans 2.6) 14.8) (163.3 130.7 19.300) (52.000 165.000 24.5 55.341 280.400 379. Renaissance Capital estimates 6 .230 5.8 1.0 14.900 3.971.574) (176.7 21.500 213.573) (27.492 Equity/assets 13.1 1.914) Other P&L ratios.400) (95.466 35.350 218.0 4.0 66.718 Interest-earning assets 3.9 Dividend on ordinary shares 3.0 30.800 1. % (9.724.700 3.2 Costs 13.900 2.1 15.880 4.034.400 330. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 64.960 417.925.718 274.7 11.300) 63.6) 10.75 Income statement.1 28.0 14.284 241.503 NPLs/gross loans.950.945 41.2 16.6 13.735) Cost/avg assets 2.00 0.500) (76.7 2.0 Trading income 14.5 68.1 Liabilities Tier 2 5.82 96.469.0 Other costs (31.9 Fees/total costs 27.249.950) (66.2 44.5 Mini/sub branches 272 349 327 292 Assets (2. RUB 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E No of ordinary shares.610.6 5.0 19.

9 Fees/total costs 27.978 Deposits/liabilities 43.2 135.24 Credit charge.5 55.8 Gross loans 90.0) (170.9 Employees 28.0 Trading income 572 (348) 436 512 559 Spread 4.120 Capital ratios.71 4.757 24.220 139.9 Tax (544) 275 (419) (628) (784) Minorities 8 (120) 125 0 (67) Other P&L ratios. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 92.351) (4.420 21.5 Mini/sub branches 272 349 327 292 Assets (4.547) (4.9 Dividend on ordinary shares 121 192 191 268 327 Trading income/revenues (6.26 5.6) 10.821 4.636 7.2 4.332 14.3 15.067) (4.1 15.466 35.659 NPL reserves.757 Deposits 37.220 139.714) Cost/income 46.06 (0.1 2.5 18.14 1.51 0.16 4.0 Branches 506 583 693 649 Interest-bearing liabilities (5.4 15.124 RoAA (1.848 120.304) (7.9 5.875 177.023 118.94 1. $ Figure 18: VTB summary sheet.9 48.734) (1.0 4.9 27.1 5.94 3.457 8.05 0.0 66.04 0.208 84.2 79.3) 40.579 4.5 25.634 13.95 1.254 16. % (9.1 Revenues (12.659 Tier 1 14.389 100.429 17.206 3.416 5.1) 45.1 22.9 4.9 13.20 3.9 47.4 14.9 16.5 68.015 19.8 15.7) 1.512 Loans/deposits 147.6 21.0 Key YoY growth rates.6 Securities 26.724 19.2 5.150 142.4 49.52) 0.0 10.276) (1.505 52.377 28.35 7.3 14. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 64.6 5.249) (1.486 11.976 109.1 19.707 12.4 13. Renaissance Capital estimates 7 .117 25.77 9.7 Dividend on pref shares na na na na na Fees/staff costs 52.006 5.7 19.5) 16.8 48.500) (1.3 Net loans 86.897) (1.875 177.2 30.3 130.638 Liability margin 7. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (5.162) 2.9) 14.471) (1.2 5.6 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets (7.6 13.3) (195.6 7.8 Total costs (2.7 11.5 15.04 0. $mn Balance sheet.047 9.0 20.6) 5.674 26. % 0.5 53.227 19.0 Other costs (1.2 44.1) 38.75 Income statement.0 5.462 NPLs/gross loans.7 Net interest income 4.362 5.239 7.418) (3.3 Free float Costs (11.306 4.984 76.4) 40.198) (7.851) (2.274 Fees/revenues 12.057 6. % 5.7 29.2 EPS (1.179) Asset margin 11.230 5.6 11.980) Cost/avg assets 2.086 132.3 Net profit (1.230 EPS 0.Renaissance Capital Russian banks 18 January 2011 VTB forecasts.694) Effective tax rate 12.2) 10.992 40.821 10.865) (1.8 6.3 13.5 21.4 10.143) (1.68 Source: Company data.110) (967) Profitability ratios. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre-tax items (8) (85) (35) 0 0 RoAE (14.54 Reserves/NPLs.649) (6.3 30.1 22.000 11.901 138.0 10.63 DPS 0.8 9.462 NIM 4.728 103.3 78.907 92.8 31.483 9. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans (11.767 22.912 2.726 7.1 Payout ratio.855 158. $mn 7.0 5.913 30.04 1.6 131.8) 42.2 State 85.8 4.1 Net fee income 657 665 866 1.3 16.016 129.0 Operating profit 3.323 Equity/assets 13.540 19.06 BVPS 3.37 0. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 9.506 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 106.5 Interbank 42.8 1.830 11.4 Securities 4. $mn 8.140 115.5 2.230 5.1 5.333) (2.9 15.9 13.1 46.9 17.7 5.3 31.4 1.855 158.3 18.96 1.945 20.8 Interbank 22.694 83.285 2.100 NPLs.007) 1. % 9. mn 3.447 Deposits 39.883 11.1 Net profit 193 (2.2 Pre-tax profit 730 (2.848 120.091 Provisioning charge (2.073 166.0 81.6) 20.6 72.5% Operating profit (14. $ 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E No of ordinary shares.4 14.945 41.003.1 Liabilities Tier 2 5.0 19.5% Per share data.0) 14.106 4. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.807 152.818 6.012) (5.1 52.691 Total liabilities 125.724 Total 20.132 1.8 15. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (1.522 Shareholders’ equity 13.04 0. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 125.678 3.817 Margins.8 ATM's na na na na Fee income 1.856 18.232 68.924 14.336 122.484 98.721) (2.137.234 20.785 Costs.3 13.629 8.7 21.0 19.326 106.0 14.230 5.844 Interest-earning assets 114.00 0.1 9.7 2.6 Other income 198 104 98 113 127 Total revenues 6.7 13.885 9.277 9.

754 8.822 24.2 0.91 4.52 3.2 15.014) Profitability ratios.199) (4.9 (54. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 14.299 Equity/assets 11.629 Deposits 90.0 22.628) (8.0 15.6 37.287 162.068 22.205 97.922 Margins. Renaissance Capital estimates 8 .5 57.511 16.09 1.377 10. RUBmn Balance sheet.5 13.97 4.2 970.575 85.5 10.3 671.3 48.88 6.90 2.217 550 3.875 Shareholders’ equity 15.9 2.128 3.7 81.658 23.1 10.7 40.961) Asset margin 13.7% No of ordinary shares.788 5.9 Employees 5. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (6.50 9.7 Mini/sub branches 88 109 114 114 Assets 3.4 Interbank 24.2) (54.0 Revenues (2.0 20. RUB 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 3.964 24.163 184.431) (3.163 184.410 128. Costs (10.439 11.3 74.4 82.717 146.301 6.8) 476.7 69.3 81.794) Cost/avg assets 4.8 65.603 160.104 165.042 6.2 23.0 15.50 0.922 Loans/deposits 75.7 16.2 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets (0.746 NIM 6. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 58.554 30.439 141.3) 13. x 1.763 Total 19.9 2.568 NPLs.144) (3.735) (8.00 5.111 Deposits 25.5 64.159 Capital ratios.0 126.211 145.1 14.3 Key YoY growth rates.954 13.077 15.8 3.885) (2.46 0.4% BVPS 601.425 26.330 12.7 Dividend on pref shares 3 3 3 3 3 Fees/staff costs 108.4 Gross loans 99.9 60.364 Fees/revenues 28.3 107.368 2.136) (7.7 23.455 RoAA 0. RUBmn 9.1 Dmitry Orlov.0 Operating profit 6.913) (8.332 94.89 9.767 6.211 145.8) 476.424 7.5 Securities 11.5 2.7 EPS (61.8 Free float Chairman Operating profit 5.091) Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 Other P&L ratios.030 5.2 797.136 19.017 131.469 17.754 9.4 0.065 16.4 14. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans (9.36 1.5 Net profit 3.697 4.707 11.603 160. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 141.894) (3.3 Holding Inc.0 20.658 NPL reserves.1 58.500 6.164 6.41 4.8 2.658 Tier 1 15.961 Liability margin 6.176 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 125.449) (3.938 Deposits/liabilities 77.0) 8.7 59.558 Total liabilities 141.810 19.51 4.5 60.5 174.1 54. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 64.325) (6.0 ATM's 470 550 550 550 Fee income (9.7 23.00 0.5 2.670 186.847) Effective tax rate 36.9 2.188 213.5 Interbank 21.9 11.336 113.514 174.137 1.313 NPLs/gross loans.2 37. % 0.7 79.60 4.3 13.401 11.918 13.5 25.81 Credit charge.494 8.174 Interest-earning assets 127.029) (6.326 5.350 151.01 1.129 130.463) (5.4 1.0 Branches 60 60 55 55 Interest-bearing liabilities 2.729 3.2 15.1 13.4 10.50 0.70 Income statement.66 4.169 4.7 Fees/total costs 59.46 0.15 Reserves/NPLs.7) 7.7% Net profit (61.203) (1.87 Other income 151 166 158 173 191 Total revenues 13. RUBmn 9.530 127.0 20.7 Consumer EPS 125.7) 31.9 14.889) (7.961 5.053) Cost/income 48.942 8.7 15.0 20.277 193.3 113.3 37.402 2.8 0.7 Securities 10.45 Total costs (7.8 Other costs (2.3 17.03 5.13 Net fee income 4.2 10.766 8.0 Net loans 94.7 Pre-tax profit 4.6% 30.735 8.065) (3.7 104.2) (54.6 2.095 144.990 4.102 1.7 23.602 158.2 19.6 20.310 119. % 4.671 3. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre-tax items 0 0 0 0 0 RoAE 7. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.00 Trading income 557 775 346 381 419 Spread 6.0 3.342) (1. RUB Figure 19: Vozrozhdenie summary sheet.0 84.362 10.09 5.32 10.9) 14.2 Tax (965) (702) (137) (792) (1.6) 70. % 9.0 16.00 10. DPS 0.0 68.644 109.7 Other Otar management JPM Margania Per share data.00 10.469 Provisioning charge (2.9 17.0 57.919 687 3.6% International 18.9 Source: Company data.017) (8.752) (2.30 1.80 6.0 16.996 9.286 16.5 Dividend on ordinary shares 11 11 12 12 12 Trading income/revenues 6.6 22.5 60.54 4.18 January 2011 Russian banks Renaissance Capital Vozrozhdenie forecasts.5) (23.9 Payout ratio. mn 23.2 37.6 650.2 16.885 11.00 5.2 15.136 22.184 2.8 11.560 15.3 Liabilities Tier 2 3. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (4.00 Net interest income 8.761 6.2 36.317 Costs.824) (4.188 213.7 23.

7 13.70 Income statement.0 68.15 Reserves/NPLs.7 104.3 107. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 58.5 Dividend on ordinary shares 0 0 0 0 0 Trading income/revenues 6.9 Payout ratio.02 0.5) (50.048 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 4.5 21.9 2.6 28.7 9.7 23.15 4.7 Securities 353 364 308 307 334 Deposits 3.8 13.0 Dmitry Orlov.2 0.5 13.8 Branches 60 60 55 55 Interest-bearing liabilities 0.767 4.6 14.08 Consumer DPS 0.7 3.707 Capital ratios.9) (49.60 4.4 0.0 20.0 20.080 Equity/assets 11.500 6.276 4.3 Costs (29.426 4.00 10. BVPS 20.4 1.3) 20.4 17.89 9.4% Source: Company data. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (243) (273) (284) (272) (313) Asset margin 12.848 5.8 Other Otar Per share data.8 37.9 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets (2.9 16.51 5.5 2.1) 18.7 59.6 19.7 79.1 54.8) 71.4) (15.50 Other income 6 5 6 6 7 Total revenues 537 411 347 460 535 Costs. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre-tax items 0 0 0 0 0 RoAE 7. % 0. $ Figure 20: Vozrozhdenie summary sheet.0 16.6 37.00 Net interest income 342 264 190 272 313 Liability margin 5.7 23.43 4.5) 19.3 Liabilities Tier 2 3.5 57. $mn 312 379 307 228 Total liabilities 4.975 5.8 22.640 6. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (167) (109) (134) (157) (176) Cost/income 48.4 82.3 14.5 16.3 15.5 11.2 16.0 Operating profit 254 211 106 182 226 Provisioning charge (89) (150) (82) (42) (35) Profitability ratios.2 36.5 10.02 0.7 Dividend on pref shares 0 0 0 0 0 Fees/staff costs 108.8 0.00 5.34 1.9 15.2 36. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans (11. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 4.316 6.7 23.02 0.7 69.66 4.419 Tier 1 15.7 40.839 4.5 60.232 5.86 4.81 Credit charge.02 Holding Inc.01 1.1) 479.7) 32.8 11.54 0.837 3.7 15.806 4. $ 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E management JPM Margania No of ordinary shares.341 4.49 4.708 6.2 19.61 2. % 9.8 ATM's 470 550 550 550 Fee income (29.3 15.0 Net loans 3.3 13.5 Mini/sub branches 88 109 114 114 Assets 0.219 2.7 Pre-tax profit 165 61 24 139 190 RoAA 0.45 6.4 24.00 0.6% 30.1 13.66 5.7 Fees/total costs 59.6% International 18.3 81.075 3.463 7.2 Tax (39) (22) (5) (28) (38) Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 Other P&L ratios.59 4.026 868 822 935 Deposits/liabilities 77.76 5.074 5.05 1. mn 23.2 10.00 Trading income 22 25 12 13 15 Spread 6.848 5.19 10.4 Free float Chairman Net profit (69.5 64.45 Total costs (283) (200) (241) (278) (309) Effective tax rate 36.201 5.0 33.08 5. $mn Balance sheet.5 2.590 5.5) (50.2 36.381 3.3 74.6 20.1 58.2 Revenues (23.767 6.6 2.419 NPL reserves. Renaissance Capital estimates 9 .463 7.5 21.042 6. $mn 314 412 417 412 Shareholders’ equity 513 542 592 700 844 NPLs/gross loans. % 1.88 6.3 113. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.111 Deposits 22.77 4.7 23.0 3.15 4.8 Other costs (116) (92) (107) (121) (132) Cost/avg assets 4.09 1.9 14.269 4.8 2.7% EPS (69.36 1. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 585 537 474 544 626 Margins.5 Interbank 734 1.2 20.52 10.0 84.51 Net fee income 166 118 140 168 201 NIM 6.806 4.6 20.4 Gross loans 3.2 15.478 NPLs.3 3.4 Interbank 841 145 77 84 96 Total 19.799 6.3 Key YoY growth rates.0 57.Renaissance Capital Russian banks 18 January 2011 Vozrozhdenie forecasts.5 60.1) 479.3 14.492 Interest-earning assets 4.7 81.02 0.9 60.9 2.640 6.8 65.151 3. Operating profit (16.5 Net profit 126 39 19 111 152 Fees/revenues 28. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 64. % 4.7% EPS 5.9) 20.618 5.7 Employees 5.9 2.5 Securities 388 369 779 777 692 Loans/deposits 75.7 23.

3 6.663 249. EPS 9.845 761 4.5% Savelyev Operating profit 55.334 1.409 367.9 21.0 ATM's 282 329 405 434 Fee income 7.1 13.34 10.976 2.9 10.2 68.240 38.671 Margins.763) (3.8 1. Valery N.9 13. RUBmn 12.627) (15.32 Net fee income 1.0 Other costs (1.12 3.10 1. Costs (2.5 18.5 Gross loans 150.310) (2.606 259.5 36.247 254.5 2.067) (2.883 158.03 5.2 14.1 17.177) (12.200 183.2 16.0) 20. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre tax items 0 0 0 0 0 RoAE 2.7 4.1 31.932) Profitability ratios.314 27.046 14.3 106. Yuriy I.5 11.4 Others 25.186 8.7 (10.260 20. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 215.10 10.9 2.2 282.2 110.2 19.269 Total liabilities 215.715 235.416 272. 1.461 228.463 229.123) (12.2 3.2 282.407 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 196.0 82.8 69.791) (2.667 Deposits 139.6 6.863 238.1 9.006 NPL reserves.679 Deposits/liabilities 74.072 Provisioning charge (3.557) (2.636 21.59 4.241 11.851 34. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 69. RUB Figure 21: Bank St Petersburg summary sheet.9 71.366 7.763 302.1 0.1 0.18 January 2011 Russian banks Renaissance Capital Bank St Petersburg forecasts.15 5.729 29.2 Branches 9 11 4 5 Interest-bearing liabilities 6. Ludmila I.2 282.2 69.246 26.809 35.9% Vorobyov 33.512) (5.95 4.9) 425.298 9.8 Securities 14.071) (121) (842) (1.2 2.503 10.7 18.707 15.162 NPLs/gross loans.223 32.7 69.0 Dividend on pref shares 2 2 2 2 2 Fees/staff costs 87.4 Liabilities Tier 2 4.47 3.079 11.202 21.141 RoAA 0.167 308.9) 13.9% 8.0% 15.852) (3.093 15.1 10.1 0.6) 11.35 5. % 4.70 10.916) (15.489 1.9 20.6 24.7% Per share data.279 322.4 Interbank 41.336 288.014 209.7 11.994 33.123 13.2 19.976 Shareholders’ equity 18.6% Matvienko Puzikov Pilipenko Stepanova BVPS 62.1 32.7 113.0 20.3 0.661 1.6 23.52 5.1 70. Renaissance Capital estimates 10 .060) (1.702 Loans/deposits 89. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (9.169 Equity/assets 10.0 2.942 924 1.7 82.9 1.7% Source: Company data.504 281.228) Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 Other P&L ratios.724 174.706) (2.6 37.0 32.3 Securities 4.533) (5.003 1.110 204.18 4.871) (2.3 71.0 18.5 Net loans 144.551 Capital ratios.598 24.00 Net interest income 9.0 Operating profit 7.272) (1.810 11.867 344.919 25.3 Payout ratio.0 Revenues 35.86 5.0 Key YoY growth rates.9 1.3 Pre-tax profit 3.5 24.7 16.8 75.0 6. % 6.8 93.49 5.912 Fees/revenues 9.9 12.910 21.9 Free float Alexander V.7 1.1% 4.2 Dividend on ordinary shares 40 31 34 72 178 Trading income/revenues 19.208 27.562 35.0 EPS (77.868 214.991 23.396) (10.264) Cost/income 25. RUBmn Balance sheet.409 367.2 10.421 12.212 Costs.153 Spread 4.182 2.264 22.7 23.386 1.0 113. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 19.774 640 3.0 20.1) 335.9 12.876) Cost/avg assets 1.20 5.875 2.7 9.6% Net profit (76. mn 282.223) (2.9 102.255 13.835) Asset margin 12.1 76.006 Tier 1 10.6 3. x 1. DPS 0.8 Total costs (3.2 38.4 15.606 259.145 Interest-earning assets 199.8 74.36 5.5 10.9 9.9 20.5 4.443 10.1 11.0 19.2 282.7 10.805 25.270 8.0 19.4 11.130 25.208 8.773) (4.4 2.9 11.320) (6.599 22.68 Other income 100 193 (97) (111) (128) Total revenues 11.845 NPLs.196 42.140) Effective tax rate 15.1 114.0 1.3 83.575 19.612 16.2 1. RUBmn 15.8 3.1 Maxim U.1 Dividend on convertible pref shares (0) (0) 764 767 767 Fees/total costs 39.2 23.101 19.273 10.983 11.4 Net profit 2. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (2.70 Income statement. % 7.624 31.8 1. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans 9.263 Deposits 25.00 Trading income 103 2.6 Mini/sub branches 20 21 32 31 Assets 9.3 Kenin Sergey V.1 2.00 0. RUBmn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.3 1.5 72.3 Credit charge.0 2.285 27.6 Interbank 49.352 NIM 5.0 24.5 19. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 67.771 Total 15.0 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets 7.6 (2.5 24.2 Michail B.373 215.715 235.07 Reserves/NPLs.4 15.797) (2.990 179.0 19.835 Liability margin 7.6 Tax (1.167 308.824 175.3 Employees 1.764 40. RUB 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E No of ordinary shares.

5% Savelyev Operating profit 22.964 Capital ratios.3 Securities 170 1.95 4.2 23.702 769 691 758 787 Deposits/liabilities 74.2 Revenues 6.6 37.10 1.00 0.046 1.0) (0.98 4.078 9.9 71.5 Net loans 4.860 6. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other post-tax gains/losses 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenues 69.8 74. Ludmila I.2) 12.182 2.5 Gross loans 5.8 1.0 14.427 839 976 1.4 Net profit 112 20 118 253 311 Fees/revenues 9.5 6.86 5.06 2.931 5.70 10. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Other pre-tax items 0 0 0 0 0 RoAE 2.6 6.464 NPLs/gross loans.2 Michail B.2 19. % 6.9 12.4 114.342 7.241 1.1 Free float Alexander V.2 2.9 1.0 Operating profit 292 357 352 396 456 Provisioning charge (137) (333) (205) (80) (67) Profitability ratios.7 27.0% 15.6 23.37 0.018 9.242 Total 15. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Staff costs (83) (54) (81) (97) (114) Cost/income 25.85 2.9 20. $mn Balance sheet.117 1. EPS 0.34 10.52 5.8 ATM's 282 329 405 434 Fee income (15. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Assets Loans/assets 67.4 Liabilities Tier 2 4.460 8.1 7.3 Maxim U.126 10.7 69.1 76.206 8.1 31.5 15.0 Key YoY growth rates.316 7.0 20.3 20.3 17.334 1.134 Deposits 4.7% Source: Company data.29 2.00 Trading income 4 93 32 35 40 Spread 4. Costs (23.1 0.69 0.2 69.360 1.8 18.5 4. Renaissance Capital estimates 11 .3 71.5 2. % 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Loans 6.6 1.70 Income statement.47 3.6 18.8 22.126 10.3 Pre-tax profit 155 24 147 316 389 RoAA 0.1 Dividend on convertible pref shares (0.7 11.0 Dividend on pref shares 0.2 282.0) 26.1 32.844 9.02 3.2 282.2 282.263 Deposits 23.1 Fees/staff costs 87. $mn 427 403 361 322 Total liabilities 7. Yuriy I.8 1.9) 480.3 14.15 5.6 Interbank 1.105 Margins.00 Net interest income 383 330 424 482 553 Liability margin 7.0 Employees 1. % 7.3 15.7 9.834 Asset quality 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest-bearing liabilities 6.01 0.8 No of: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Interest-earning assets 5.554 11. 1.00 0.1% 4. % 1.9% Vorobyov 33.743 NPL reserves.24 1.4 Interbank 1.6% Matvienko Puzikov Pilipenko Stepanova BVPS 2.1 21. $mn 530 747 746 728 Shareholders’ equity 640 842 981 1.6 17.130 5.36 5.85 Kenin Sergey V.8 16.3 (1.9 11.32 0.0 82.3 83.2 38.136 11.20 5.210 NPLs.6 17.32 Net fee income 56 47 58 69 82 NIM 5.3 1.3 6.7 82.59 4. mn 282. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest income 771 810 848 936 1.821 12.8 18.1 0.8 Securities 486 275 786 955 1.2 14.743 Tier 1 10.26 Credit charge.8 3.4 2.7 23.844 9.154 8. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest expense (388) (480) (424) (454) (553) Asset margin 12.18 4.342 7.0 20.00 0.1 11.2 3.35 5.9 13.8 69.68 Other income 4 6 (3) (4) (4) Total revenues 447 476 511 583 671 Costs.7% Per share data.553 8.797 7.6% Net profit (81.12 3.2 Trading income/revenues 19.8 Fees/total costs 39.3 18.7 18.6 24.491 Interest-earning assets 6.3 Mini/sub branches 20 21 32 31 Assets 6.27 3.672 6.1 0.6 Others 25.7 10.49 5.6 23.763 Equity/assets 10.1 70.764 10.67 3.07 Reserves/NPLs.0 1.9 12.2 2.07 0.2 282.9 102.12 2.3 106.267 6.Renaissance Capital Russian banks 18 January 2011 Bank St Petersburg forecasts.974 8.4 11.3 Payout ratio.0 1.7 1.821 12.875 2.0 Branches 9 11 4 5 Interest-bearing liabilities 4.1) 32.0 6.03 5.2 110.8 19.1 13.2 EPS (82.9 10.7 114.10 10.200 1. $ 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E No of ordinary shares.2 17.0 32.759 5. Valery N.0 15.0) 380. % 4.1 0.392 10.0 Other costs (72) (65) (78) (90) (100) Cost/avg assets 1. DPS 0.5 7.1 10.01 0. % 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Total assets 7.9% 8.2 Dividend on ordinary shares 1.5 72. $mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Balance sheet ratios.5 36.6 Tax (43) (4) (29) (63) (78) Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 Other P&L ratios.6) 23.803 7.413 Loans/deposits 89.8 Total costs (155) (119) (159) (187) (214) Effective tax rate 15. $ Figure 22 Bank St Petersburg summary sheet.0 26.0 2.

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target price and rating history Restricted Suspended Unrated Under Review Buy Hold Sell Last Price Target Price 90 100% 80 90% 70 80% 60 70% 50 60% 50% 40 40% 30 30% 20 20% 10 10% 0 0% May-08 May-09 May-10 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Feb-08 Mar-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Sep-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Source: Renaissance Capital. prices local market close or the mid price if illiquid market Vozrozhdenie Bank – Share price.Renaissance Capital Russian banks 18 January 2011 Renaissance Capital equity research distribution ratings Investment Rating Distribution Renaissance Capital Research Banking Buy 159 40% Buy 17 36% Hold 60 15% Hold 5 11% Sell 16 4% Sell 4 9% Under Review 12 3% Under Review 0 0% Suspended 0 0% Suspended 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Unrated 152 38% Unrated 21 45% 399 47 Investment Banking Relationships* Renaissance Capital Research Banking Buy 3 50% Buy 17 36% Hold 3 50% Hold 5 11% Sell 0 0% Sell 4 9% Under review 0 0% Under Review 0 0% Suspended 0 0% Suspended 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Unrated 0 0% Unrated 21 45% 6 47 *Companies from which RenCap has received compensation within the past 12 months. NR – Not Rated UR – Under Review Sberbank – Share price. prices local market close or the mid price if illiquid market 13 . target price and rating history Restricted Suspended Unrated Under Review Buy Hold Sell Last Price Target Price 6 100% 90% 5 80% 4 70% 60% 3 50% 40% 2 30% 1 20% 10% 0 0% May-08 May-09 May-10 Nov-07 Dec-07 Nov-08 Dec-08 Nov-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Dec-10 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Feb-08 Mar-08 Jul-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Jul-10 Sep-07 Aug-08 Sep-08 Aug-09 Sep-09 Aug-10 Sep-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Source: Renaissance Capital.

target price and rating history Restricted Suspended Unrated Under Review Buy Hold Sell Last Price Target Price 9 100% 8 90% 7 80% 6 70% 5 60% 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 20% 1 10% 0 0% May-08 May-09 May-10 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Feb-08 Mar-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Sep-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Source: Renaissance Capital. target price and rating history Restricted Suspended Unrated Under Review Buy Hold Sell Last Price Target Price 12 100% 90% 10 80% 8 70% 60% 6 50% 40% 4 30% 2 20% 10% 0 0% May-08 May-09 May-10 Nov-07 Dec-07 Nov-08 Dec-08 Nov-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Dec-10 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Feb-08 Mar-08 Jul-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Jul-10 Sep-07 Aug-08 Sep-08 Aug-09 Sep-09 Aug-10 Sep-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Source: Renaissance Capital.18 January 2011 Russian banks Renaissance Capital VTB Bank – Share price. prices local market close or the mid price if illiquid market Bank Saint Petersburg/ Bank Sankt-Peterburg – Share price. prices local market close or the mid price if illiquid market 14 .

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