FOCUSECONOMICS

CONSENSUS FORECAST
Asia
Contents
Summary .................................... 3 Calendar .................................. 1 4 China ........................................ 1 5 Hong Kong ............................... 2 6 India .......................................... 3 5 Indonesia ................................. 4 4 Korea ........................................ 5 3 Malaysia .................................. 6 3 Philippines ............................... 7 2 Singapore ................................ 8 1 Taiwan ..................................... 9 0 Thailand ................................... 9 9 Vietnam ................................. 109 Notes ....................................... 112 Order Form ............................. 113

November 2010
Publication date: 26 October 2010 Information available: up to and including 25 Oct. 2010 Forecasts collected: 19 - 22 October 2010 Next edition: 23 November 2010

Arne Pohlman Chief Economist Ángel Talavera Senior Economist Keith Catlin Senior Economist

Armando Ciccarelli Senior Economist Gerardo Morán Senior Economist Ricardo Aceves Economist

Marcos Felipe Casarin Economist Joan Enric Domene Economist

© FocusEconomics 2010 ISSN 2013-4940

Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists

Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain Phone: +34 932 651 040 Fax: +34 932 650 804 info@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com

FOCUSECONOMICS
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

Summary

November 2010

World United States Euro area Asia Japan Asia (ex Japan) China India Asean Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam NIEs Hong Kong Korea Singapore Taiwan

2007 4.0 1.9 2.8 7.0 2.4 9.7 13.0 9.2 6.6 6.3 6.3 7.1 4.9 8.5 5.8 6.4 5.1 8.5 6.0

Real GDP, annual variation in % 2008 2009 2010 1.8 -1.9 3.8 0.0 -2.6 2.7 0.6 -4.1 1.5 4.0 2.1 6.6 -1.2 -5.2 2.9 7.0 6.1 8.8 9.6 9.1 9.9 6.7 7.4 8.3 4.3 1.4 7.5 6.0 4.5 6.0 4.6 -1.7 7.1 3.7 1.1 6.6 2.5 -2.2 7.4 6.2 5.3 6.6 1.9 -0.9 7.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 2.3 0.2 6.0 1.8 -1.3 13.7 0.7 -1.9 8.3

2011 3.4 2.4 1.4 5.9 1.4 7.6 8.9 8.4 5.5 6.2 5.2 5.1 4.4 6.9 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.2

2007 3.2 2.9 2.1 2.6 0.1 4.1 4.8 4.7 3.9 6.0 2.0 2.8 2.2 8.3 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.8

Consumer Prices, variation in % 2008 2009 2010 4.6 0.9 2.6 3.8 -0.4 1.6 3.3 0.3 1.5 4.5 0.0 2.3 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 6.2 0.8 3.9 5.9 -0.7 3.1 7.3 3.5 7.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 9.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 0.6 1.9 9.3 3.2 3.9 5.4 -0.9 3.3 23.0 6.9 9.1 4.6 1.4 2.4 4.3 0.5 2.7 4.7 2.8 2.9 6.5 0.6 2.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2

2011 2.6 1.4 1.6 2.5 -0.3 3.6 3.0 5.5 4.5 6.1 2.6 4.0 3.1 8.2 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.5 1.5

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %
12 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 8 12

Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %

2008

2009

2010

2011

4 4 0 0

-4

-8 World United States Euro area Japan Asia (ex Japan) China India

-4 World United States Euro area Japan Asia (ex Japan) China India

World United States Euro area Asia Japan Asia (ex Japan) China India Asean Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam NIEs Hong Kong Korea Singapore Taiwan

2007 -0.7 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 -2.5 0.6 0.7 -2.6 0.3 -1.2 -3.2 -0.2 -1.7 -1.8 3.9 7.7 3.5 12.1 -0.4

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP 2008 2009 2010 -2.3 -6.9 -6.4 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -2.0 -6.3 -6.4 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -5.8 -9.8 -9.1 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 0.1 0.8 -0.6 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 -0.9 -4.0 -2.8

2011 -5.3 -7.9 -5.3 -4.2 -8.5 -2.2 -1.9 -5.1 -2.2 -1.3 -4.6 -3.2 -2.9 -4.9 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.8 -2.3

2007 0.0 -5.1 0.1 6.2 4.8 7.0 11.0 -1.4 8.3 2.6 15.7 4.4 6.4 -9.8 6.2 12.3 0.6 27.6 8.8

Current Account, % of GDP 2008 2009 2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 -1.7 -0.8 -0.4 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.5 5.9 5.0 3.7 9.4 6.0 4.8 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 4.9 6.9 5.3 0.0 2.0 1.1 17.5 16.7 13.5 2.2 5.3 4.5 0.6 7.7 3.6 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 5.1 8.6 6.2 13.6 8.7 8.4 -0.6 5.1 2.3 19.2 19.1 17.5 7.2 11.1 8.5

2011 0.0 -3.5 -0.1 3.3 3.6 3.1 4.1 -2.5 4.5 0.7 12.1 4.0 2.7 -7.1 5.2 8.3 1.4 15.8 7.0

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 2

FOCUSECONOMICS

Summary

November 2010

Summary
Regional outlook improves
• Recent data from the third quarter confirm the notion that growth in most Asian economies has begun to slow, as the favourable base effect fades away. Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan Asian growth this year by 0.1 percentage points for the second consecutive month to the current 8.8% forecast. In 2011, panellists see the regional economy growing 7.6%. Despite persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast panellists have left their inflation estimates unchanged at last month’s 3.9% estimate. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate to an average of 3.6%. •
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages
GDP growth (%) Inflation (%) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Current Account (% of GDP) 2000-04 2005-015 6.8 7.9 2.3 3.4 -2.2 -1.0 3.3 5.7 2010-14 7.8 3.5 -1.6 2.9

Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based on market exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.

Keith Catlin
Senior Economist

Forecast Changes over last Month

Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast

Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast

Taiwan Philippines Singapore Thailand NIEs Asean Hong Kong Korea Vietnam India Asia (ex Japan) Malaysia Indonesia China -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

Indonesia Singapore Asean Korea NIEs Thailand Hong Kong China Asia (ex Japan) Malaysia Taiwan India Philippines Vietnam -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

Note: Change between November and October 2010 in percentage points. Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

Note: Change between November and October2010 in percentage points. Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 3

25%. as agriculture is an important sector.6 ↑ 5. Inflation rose from 3. Inflation Inflation 3.0% in August. monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at 2. despite delaying the fiscal consolidation measures needed to achieve the government’s objective of cutting the deficit to 3. easing for the first time in six months.6 = GDP 9.9 = 3.5 = GDP 6.1 ↑ Philippines Inflation 4.6 = Current Developments Panellists raised their 2010 growth forecasts for most of the smaller counties while leaving the forecasts for the major economies unchanged.6% in September. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth.6% in August to 3.0 = FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 4 .6% target. The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this year. Preliminary data suggest that the economy decelerated in the third quarter. which account for more than 10% of GDP.9 ↑ 4.8% in September. state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected vice-president of the Central Military Commission.9 = 2. were 9. Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing industrial activity.6% in September. once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013. the government unveiled its 2011 budget. In September.4% of GDP. China and India.5% from 4.0 = 4.6 = GDP 6. Recent data are showing mixed signals but. Inflation fell to 5.1 = 3. However. finally breaking the upward trend in place since the beginning of the year. panellists left their forecasts for both countries unchanged over last month's estimates for this year and next. only a notch below this year’s 5.4 = India Inflation 8. Nevertheless.7% over the same month last year.0 ↓ GDP 5.8% in September.9 = China Inflation 3.6% year-on-year. as retail sales rose a strong 14. Inflation dropped from 3. surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates. overseas Filipino workers’ remittances.9 = 8.2 ↓ 4. as a result of a higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing growth. merchandise exports continue to grow at a robust pace.0 = 6. Asia Despite upward price pressures in the two largest economies in the region.2 ↑ Indonesia Inflation 5. Inflation decelerated to 1. Moreover. with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than the previous year. targeting a fiscal deficit of 5.2 = Malaysia Inflation 1. Korea Inflation jumped from 2.3 = 8. consumer confidence continues to slide.5% in August to 3. On 18 October.8 ↑ 7. expanding at a double-digit pace for the ninth consecutive month in August.8 ↑ 3.1 ↑ GDP 6. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion.0 ↓ GDP 8.0 ↓ GDP 7.5 = Hong Kong Inflation 2. which should buttress private consumption in the months ahead.8% higher than in the same month last year. suggesting weaker private consumption in the months ahead. Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8. thus cementing his position as Hu Jintao’s likely successor.0% by 2015.6% in September. Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.0% in August to 2.1 ↓ 5.6% in September. On 15 October. inflation fell to 3. continue to point towards sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. the robust domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.7 = 3. Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to fuel economic growth.1 ↑ 6.1 = 5. thus ending the downward trend in place since May.2 = 2. on balance. The budget was well received by the markets.FOCUSECONOMICS Summary November 2010 Forecasts 2010 2011 GDP 8. In addition. Moreover.

2 = Taiwan Inflation 1.4 = Thailand Inflation 3.9 ↓ Singapore Inflation 2.1 ↑ GDP 6. due to the characteristic volatility of the pharmaceutical sector. Governor Nguyen Van Giau has stated that the State Bank does not plan further exchange rate adjustments following on August’s devaluation.9% in September to 9. In addition. As a result of the strong economic activity.9 ↑ Vietnam Inflation 9.3% in September. exports remain robust but are decelerating amid a less favourable comparison base. Inflation rose from 8. Industrial output expanded 15.0% in September from 3.6 ↑ 6. Annual inflation jumped from 3. Economic growth is likely to remain solid.1% annually in September.FOCUSECONOMICS Summary November 2010 Forecasts 2010 2011 Current Developments (continued) In the third quarter. Meanwhile.8 = 2.4 ↑ 4. prompting the Central Bank to pause the monetary tightening cycle in its 20 October meeting.7% in October.2 = 1. returning to single-digit growth for the first time in eight months. as rising payrolls should buttress domestic demand.3 = 3.3 ↑ 4.7% in September.5% in August to 0. despite recent drops in unofficial exchange rate rates. which was aimed at curbing incipient inflationary pressures. supported by healthy domestic demand and strong exports.3% to 3. Industrial manufacturing increased 8.6 ↓ 8. the resilient export growth may fade.6% annual growth in the second quarter. Inflation fell to 3. GDP 13. as the currency continues to appreciate and external demand slumps.5 ↓ GDP 7.7% in August. monetary authorities tightened the policy stance on 14 October.5 = GDP 8. The deceleration reflected a slowdown in manufacturing. Moreover.2 ↓ FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 5 . Inflation bounced back from minus 0.7 ↑ 4. economic growth slowed to 10.3% from 19.3% in August.

0 6.835 2.1 6.9 2009 9.5 4.2 8. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.589 1.124 8.2 5.991 1.4 2011 8.9 7.3 6.0 4.8 7.9 7.4 -0.6 3.5 6.000 20.189 22.127 19.756 1. All data for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.992 1.000 30.664 29.5 7.5 4.123 24.3 1.7 1.000 30.790 2013 6.4 5.912 2.155 31.320 17.8 7.419 49.0 8.151 28.442 2.6 6.831 20.576 2009 3.899 2.1 6.5 0.184 22.339 2.500 0 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 6 . 2010 2013 9.320 3.3 2012 9.6 13.265 37.766 1.747 35.9 7.5 6. annual variation in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 9.837 26.9 8.0 2.8 4.4 4.368 4.824 1.427 2011 4.860 5.5 4.2 5.7 2.776 5.442 4.7 4.2 5.514 16.7 5.844 2.886 1.000 40.0 4.359 3.6 8.087 2.982 1.694 1.102 1.7 4.813 33.5 4.778 21.630 4.371 5.904 16.5 6.326 1.0 6.366 4.971 1.1 -2. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.1 -1.152 2014 7.157 3.120 2.4 4.8 5.059 2012 5.2 6.785 19.8 5.FOCUSECONOMICS Gross Domestic Product.7 1. real annual variation in %.242 4.788 3.6 4.000 7.6 2.500 2009 2010 2011 Note: GDP per capita in current USD.266 3.9 4.847 38.9 -2.110 2.768 21.9 5.6 Summary November 2010 GDP Growth.172 2010 4.056 2.8 5.406 30.537 25.8 4.0 7.1 4.6 4.9 2010 9.5 8. 15.3 4.0 5.050 2.4 2014 9.3 7.171 40.7 6.366 5.525 35.156 44.350 20.798 4.0 4.763 1.4 6.7 8.8 5.3 Singapore China Asia (ex Japan) India Taiwan Asean NIEs Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Korea Hong Kong 4 6 8 10 12 14 12 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Gross domestic product.298 46.000 50.2 4.3 4.4 6.599 52.135 1.510 29. 4 0 -4 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia GDP per capita.709 18.435 25.5 5.3 -1.9 4.243 9.2 5.138 28.6 5.9 4.096 23.844 3. 2010 10.1 4.754 Singapore Hong Kong NIEs Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand China Asia (ex Japan) Asean Indonesia Philippines India Vietnam 0 GDP per capita.7 4.953 9.2 4.004 3.5 8.088 4.9 6. USD China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 3.8 7.775 3.000 Notes and sources 2008 22.078 6.758 27.8 5.3 6.8 4.162 7.977 2.437 1.665 4.570 3.2 -1.951 40.1 1.4 6.637 10.049 2.8 0.2 7.086 7.

9 4.2 10.3 7.2 17.7 7. annual variation in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 26.5 4.0 6.8 2012 9.7 4.1 0.8 -9.3 7.8 5.4 7. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.7 8. real annual variation in %.1 7.1 China Asia (ex Japan) Taiwan India Philippines Singapore Thailand Hong Kong NIEs Asean Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Korea 0 Investment Growth.8 4.9 4.4 5.8 -2.1 4.7 6.2 7. Data for China refer to nominal urban investment in fixed assets.1 4.7 6.5 10.8 3.6 2.8 2.2 6.2 3.3 8.7 5. 2010 8 16 24 32 40 2008 30 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Gross fixed investment.5 5.3 -11.4 1.6 6.2 1.9 13.9 -1.1 5.9 0.3 6.5 3.5 0.0 5.0 5.7 5.3 1.2 12.1 4.6 7.1 5.2 3.1 3.5 2010 25.7 9.0 6.0 15.2 2.8 6.0 16.3 4. annual variation in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 9.1 1.6 5.4 -0.0 12.4 3.4 6.8 6.8 6.0 8.6 4.1 7.0 2014 21.1 0.2 7.6 5.0 7.4 3.9 6.8 5.1 9.0 2009 30.8 4.8 7.9 0.2 9.3 6. 2010 2013 9.1 8.6 8.1 2.7 -0.7 16.1 3.9 6.8 4.4 6.9 10.3 9.5 -1.5 8.5 2011 9.7 3.2 2009 9. Data for China are based on FocusEconomics estimates.6 6.6 8.8 4.6 5.5 4.1 12.FOCUSECONOMICS Private Consumption.0 7.6 8.7 8.9 2014 9.3 4. real annual variation in %.6 5.7 3.3 4.9 18.6 6.7 China Asia (ex Japan) Vietnam India Singapore Malaysia Asean Hong Kong Philippines Indonesia Thailand NIEs Korea Taiwan 0 3 6 9 12 10 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Private consumption.1 7.5 5.5 5.3 4.4 4.9 -1.5 6.8 8.9 5.8 14.4 4.8 8.5 10.7 5.5 6.5 -3.5 2010 9.2 -5. 6 4 2 0 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia Investment.1 4.2 5.4 3. 20 10 0 -10 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 7 .7 4.8 7.7 4.8 6.2 8.7 2.2 5.1 5.2 3.8 6.2 2013 20.6 -11.0 7.9 2011 22.0 7. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.4 4.9 12.4 5.5 10.8 5.7 4.3 4.5 15.0 5.4 6.8 7.2 0.0 4.1 Summary November 2010 Private Consumption Growth.1 4.3 -0.0 5.0 8.4 -3.3 2012 21.5 4.3 6.0 5.2 4.6 3.2 4.9 7.6 10.0 11.2 5.5 -1.5 -3.9 7.9 11.1 9.9 15.1 5.

2 -1.3 3.3 1.4 -3.6 -0. % of active population China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 4.2 -2.FOCUSECONOMICS Unemployment.4 4.5 3.6 -5.6 -1.5 -1.6 3.9 -2.8 3. 6 4 2 Asia (ex Japan) China NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia Fiscal Balance.0 7.4 0.9 -2.7 3.6 -1.1 5. Sources: National statistical institutes.8 -1.4 2012 -1.0 -3.6 -3.8 7.4 1.5 4.8 3.1 -1.2 4.4 7.8 -3.8 -1.8 3.9 -0.1 3.6 1.2 4.1 8.9 3.1 -6.8 2.1 7.7 2.7 -0.5 0. 2010 -6 -4 -2 0 2 Notes and sources 0 Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.1 3.0 -3.1 7.7 0.9 0.5 4.4 -3.0 3.5 0.6 -1.2 -1.9 -2.6 -0.7 -4.6 3.0 -1.4 -1.7 2011 4.1 5. China end-of-year urban unemployment.0 4.0 1.1 -1.3 4.3 1.7 1.0 5.4 -3.6 -2.1 2.2 2.9 7.2 -2.3 2014 -0.9 7.6 3.1 3.9 3.7 5.4 7.1 3. -2 -4 -6 2008 -8 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia 2009 2010 2011 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 8 .0 3.0 5.2 -5.8 -2.7 1.9 -2.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 -7. % of GDP China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 -0.4 Summary November 2010 Unemployment.5 3.9 5.1 2010 4.7 -3.1 4.8 5. Sources: National statistical institutes.2 7. 2010 2013 4.6 -0.4 -2.2 4.1 2009 -2.4 -1.0 3.3 4.4 -4.2 4.8 -0.1 3.0 3.8 6.0 -4.1 2.5 Hong Kong Singapore Korea NIEs Indonesia China Asean Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) Thailand Philippines Malaysia India Vietnam -8 Fiscal Balance.9 0.2 2013 -1.7 4.4 3.5 -3.6 -5.9 -4.0 -0.4 1.4 5.2 3.1 2011 -1.9 -1.6 -3.1 -2.8 -3.0 -6.1 6.2 5.4 -0.5 1.2 4.5 -0.2 3.3 -1.5 4.3 0. India has no official unemployment statistics.5 4.6 -3.4 -2.4 2012 4.3 5.2 0.1 -1.6 -2. finance ministries and Asian Development Bank (ADB) for China.9 3.0 -4.5 -3.3 7.3 -2.2 Philippines Indonesia Taiwan Vietnam Asean China Hong Kong NIEs Asia (ex Japan) Malaysia Korea Singapore Thailand 0 2 4 6 8 10 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: End-of-year unemployment rate.2 0.1 3.7 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.1 2.2 -0.1 4.1 3.4 -1.2 -4.9 -0.4 2.9 -1.8 -6.7 -3.6 -1.2 7.0 0.0 3.1 3.7 2009 4.3 2014 4.0 -4.9 2010 -2.8 0.5 4.

4 6.9 1.9 7.8 3. Malaysia: Overnight policy rate.4 23.3 2.2 0.1 7.1 1.8 0.5 2. % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 5.8 3. Indonesia: Overnight BI rate.1 2.0 3.8 5.1 8.5 6.8 2.6 -0.3 3.9 0.9 5.5 2.3 1.4 5. Singapore: 3-month Singapore interbank rate (SIBOR).7 2.1 4.8 7.2 2.6 3. Philippines: 91-day Treasury bill rate.0 3.8 9.0 2.7 1.6 4.9 2.0 2.3 3.5 4.5 5.1 3.0 8.0 9.0 2.5 3.6 1.2 2.2 9.5 2.5 4. 2010 2 4 6 8 10 10 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.6 5.6 4. 6 4 2 0 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 9 .6 6.1 3.7 7.8 7.0 2.9 2.0 6.1 3.4 2010 3.3 9.5 4.2 5.0 5.9 2.0 3.8 4.0 6.6 4. Sources: National central banks.3 6.3 6.0 6.8 1.4 2.4 2011 3. 2010 2014 3.6 2.6 2.1 2014 7.3 7.8 2. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.3 5.6 4.0 2.FOCUSECONOMICS Summary Inflation.3 0. Data for India refer to wholesale price index (WPI).1 4.8 5.8 4.2 0. 4 0 -4 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia Interest Rate.8 2013 6.8 2.1 3.5 5.6 0.7 1.4 2010 5.1 4.0 2.5 3.0 7.3 9.7 3.5 1.9 0.1 5.5 5. China: 12-month lending rate.9 5.3 Vietnam Indonesia India China Asia (ex Japan) Asean Philippines Malaysia Korea Thailand NIEs Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong 0 Interest Rate. India: RBI repurchase rate.8 8.1 1.0 4.0 4.9 4.4 3. annual average variation of consumer prices in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 5.6 3.2 8.3 3.8 4.4 9.0 9. Thailand: 1-day repurchase rate.1 1.4 2012 6.6 3.3 4.7 3.3 5.6 3.2 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.6 4.3 1.2 6.6 9 12 12 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %.1 2.5 1.2 3.9 6.9 -0.0 7.9 3.0 5.5 4. Korea: Bank of Korea base rate.2 2.6 2012 2.8 5.5 2.4 3.3 6.7 3.7 5.2 1.3 8.4 6.5 3. Taiwan: CB discount rate.3 3.5 3.7 Vietnam India Indonesia Asean Philippines Asia (ex Japan) Thailand China Korea Singapore Hong Kong NIEs Malaysia Taiwan 0 3 6 November 2010 Inflation.9 4.6 6.1 3.9 0.3 3.3 2.6 4.6 2.6 2.3 1.6 2013 3.9 2.6 2009 -0.0 2.3 5.3 2.9 2.7 3.9 2011 5.8 9.5 1.7 5.5 4.4 2009 5.6 2.3 3.2 3. Vietnam: Base rate.8 2.8 1.2 3.8 7.7 0.9 4.1 7.8 0.5 3.9 1. Hong Kong: 91-day Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR).

2 7.5 4.5 -0.9 4.1 1.5 2.5 3.8 2012 -2. USD.5 4.3 1.7 -6.4 12.7 13.1 11.1 -0.5 10.0 1.6 8. China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).9 -7.3 -1.6 15.3 0. in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 -6.7 4.6 -1.6 2010 4.4 -3.4 Summary November 2010 Depreciation versus USD.1 0.3 13.6 10.7 8.2 0.5 1.1 -12.2 2.9 -4.2 0.3 3.3 0.9 0.2 -1.9 -2.8 0.1 7.9 4.6 -3.6 -2.0 0.1 0.1 25.3 -5.8 -1.9 -17.1 2.6 5.4 14.6 -6. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.1 0.8 7.0 -8.7 -7.0 5.1 -2.7 15.6 -11.9 -1.3 -0.7 4.0 -4.7 5.2 2012 3.8 -5.6 6. 2010 2013 -1.7 -3.8 0.3 1.9 -0.9 -0.1 2010 -3.3 -2.4 13.5 -6.6 2.1 2.9 2013 3.5 0.5 -4.4 -2.0 -7.2 -5.4 -1. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.4 -2.8 0.5 Singapore Malaysia Taiwan Hong Kong NIEs Asean China Philippines Asia (ex Japan) Thailand Korea Indonesia India Vietnam Current Account Balance.4 13.7 -7.5 5.5 17. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.2 -7.6 -2.6 -4.2 19.1 -1.8 1.4 6.9 7.9 0.7 -1.1 2009 -0.0 2.5 2.2 4.1 4.5 2.3 2.5 0.8 7.6 8.FOCUSECONOMICS Nominal Depreciation vs.9 2.1 -2.9 2011 -4.0 -2.1 -0. 2010 -10 0 10 20 12 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.7 5.7 21.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 5.3 6.0 -3.9 1.6 -8.4 -0.5 6.7 -2.0 -0.6 -6.4 -1.6 2014 3.0 8.1 0.3 -3.8 -0.8 5.2 -2.2 -0.6 2.7 -3.6 -0.8 8.2 -1.7 1.5 3. 10 0 -10 -20 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia Current Account Balance.3 5.1 2014 -4.8 -2.2 -2.5 12.3 11.2 2011 4.7 0.5 8.0 6.1 -3. 4 0 -4 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 10 . China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).4 -4.9 -11.1 -5.0 15.4 0.1 -1.3 19.9 -0.9 -9. Positive number means currency is losing value against USD.9 8.8 0.1 0.9 -2.2 6.1 3.1 3.1 4.4 Vietnam Hong Kong India Taiwan China Asia (ex Japan) NIEs Singapore Malaysia Philippines Korea Asean Thailand Indonesia -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 30 2008 20 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Nominal depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %.5 -5.0 2.9 -4.7 -0. % of GDP China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 9.6 17.7 3.1 16.7 5.5 -2.3 0.1 2009 6.1 8.8 0.

7 5.2 11.7 17.3 7.3 11. 2010 20 25 30 35 40 50 2008 25 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.4 10.7 7.5 39.3 9.0 5.0 11.9 11.7 12.6 2014 4. China: Customs Department.2 2014 6.5 22.3 11.8 29.1 5.3 -20.6 12.8 8.1 10.4 12.6 13.2 9.7 6.2 12.8 6.7 3.9 -7.9 8. annual variation in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 18.0 19.9 12. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.3 21.9 10.9 11.9 2010 34.0 2011 17.9 26.6 29.0 2012 7.6 11.3 10.7 9.1 13.0 9.2 -20.9 11. 0 -15 2008 -30 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia 2009 2010 2011 Import Growth.1 15.5 9.7 15.4 9.6 9.4 28.2 -10.9 -24.3 28.0 Taiwan Indonesia China Korea Thailand Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) NIEs Asean India Singapore Vietnam Philippines Hong Kong 15 Import Growth.3 10.2 2011 14.4 12.6 7.5 8.9 -14.4 5.7 -15.7 14.0 11.4 9.2 9.4 -13.0 -20.1 11.8 10.4 2009 -16.1 12.7 17.4 11.7 2009 -11.4 26.0 -23.2 18.5 11.1 17.2 32.FOCUSECONOMICS Export Growth.6 14.4 16.5 8.7 -21.4 2012 6.1 -22.7 14. China: Customs Department.2 32.4 12.0 -11.7 16.2 36.1 Taiwan Singapore China Asia (ex Japan) Indonesia Asean NIEs Philippines Korea Thailand Malaysia Vietnam India Hong Kong 15 20 25 30 35 30 Notes and sources 15 Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.4 Summary November 2010 Export Growth. 0 -25 -50 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 11 .3 19.0 8.8 9.5 12.7 -25. 2010 2013 5.2 8.7 23.7 -21.3 24.1 15.6 10.7 9.0 -24.1 14.7 8.1 8.8 8.4 9.7 13.1 -23.4 23.7 10.6 13.8 16.0 18.4 11.7 7.6 10.2 2013 6.6 23.7 12.7 27.9 8.9 21.1 8.0 9.7 30.3 10.5 6.9 10.2 21.8 -16.5 22.8 10.3 10.4 9.3 14.4 34.5 6.6 12.1 6.4 11.2 11.3 21.4 13.1 9.5 6.2 9.1 5.6 17.9 -9.1 7.8 -14.4 12.7 12.7 -17.7 9.7 10.1 -2.7 18.7 -17.2 21.0 2010 24.4 8.5 23.8 12. annual variation in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 17.0 13.2 -13.5 20.3 12.1 14.2 13.6 11.6 -27.3 23.5 14.9 24.3 9.7 13.1 16.1 -26.2 -9.0 21.9 10.4 22.7 9.

0 65.7 24.8 2012 5.5 70.5 7.2 6.FOCUSECONOMICS International Reserves.4 10.6 5.2 2011 22.2 48.4 7.3 139 12.2 22.8 303 16.6 3.6 7.8 7.8 Korea Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) Thailand Taiwan India China 0 External Debt.6 19.6 11. 2010 10 20 30 40 125 Notes and sources 2008 100 2009 2010 2011 Note: External debt as % of GDP.0 9.3 10.6 6.7 7.2 8.8 19.6 24.3 308 18.6 6.4 28.6 8.4 204 19.4 25.8 20.3 18.2 China Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) Philippines Thailand NIEs India Singapore Asean Indonesia Korea Malaysia Hong Kong Vietnam 0 5 10 15 20 25 32 Notes and sources 2008 24 2009 2010 2011 Note: International reserves as months of imports.8 45.1 26.6 30.4 12.8 7.4 24.1 8.9 7.9 28.0 2014 5.8 11.0 7.4 207 17.6 173 13. 2010 2013 22.9 7.2 24.3 35.8 39.1 20.9 19.8 17.6 7.2 12.7 211 14.2 9.9 2012 18.6 29. Sources: Central banks.3 50.5 11.9 8.7 19.1 2010 6.3 15.7 Summary November 2010 International Reserves.9 21.4 8.6 16.8 2011 6.7 27.4 14.1 10.9 2.4 18.6 14. central banks and finance ministries. months of imports China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 20.1 2.3 8.4 7.2 11.6 8.2 58.3 29.8 32.9 6.0 29.9 40.0 8.4 7.9 32. 16 8 0 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia External Debt.8 212 21.8 12.0 8.8 10.2 2013 5.9 24.8 87.1 59.9 25.3 9.6 2009 8.5 9.5 23.7 9.2 13.4 42.1 9.0 13.5 10.6 319 19.5 31.5 7.6 2.6 210 21.7 202 18.1 30.6 17.2 9.0 255 15.6 23.8 54.2 44.8 2.4 2009 28.0 21.8 32.0 20.1 8.7 7.3 5.2 10.4 9.4 10.4 6. % of GDP China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 8.1 24.9 17.8 7.0 28.5 10.9 8.5 78.9 7.9 11.2 22.2 2.9 7.6 28.9 5.6 9.9 9.1 235 21.5 20.4 89.7 16.4 2014 21.9 2.2 7.1 9.7 19.2 8.8 2010 23.3 99.6 22.0 25. 75 50 25 0 Asia (ex Japan) China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 12 .7 8.7 33.7 8.0 10.3 216 23.8 30.7 8.8 35.6 30.9 11. Sources: National statistical institutes.3 47.9 8.3 22.3 8.

2 6.8 5.8 Q4 8.6 3.8 9.6 7.1 3.6 1.4 2.6 4.8 -1.9 2.3 4.2 11.9 9.6 5.2 Q1 2.7 9.9 8.6 4.9 7.5 6.4 3.3 9.4 6.2 5.2 2.4 Q2 10.7 4.5 4.6 3.8 -2.6 6.1 0.6 Q3 9.7 Q2 7.5 3.2 4.7 7.9 4.5 7.9 4.3 8.3 6.6 12.4 4.6 11.6 5.2 -3.6 0.4 0.5 3.1 2.8 2.4 6.1 -2.2 8.3 4.9 9.2 9.2 1.0 6.0 4.3 8.0 -0.7 4.1 3.4 Q2 10.4 8.9 4.0 4.5 6.8 16.3 4.6 10. year-on-year variation in % Asia (ex Japan) India 10 10 China Korea 5 5 0 Asia (ex Japan) India -5 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 China Korea 0 -5 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Yoy change of quarterly avg.1 3.1 Q1 11.9 0.1 3.2 1.5 2.0 8.3 0.2 -3.9 1.6 2.5 -0.5 7.2 6.3 4.0 7.1 -4.9 6.4 1.9 1.3 9.7 3.6 9.2 1.3 0.0 10.6 4.0 6.7 3.3 0.8 0.3 3.6 4.4 Q2 8.6 5.1 3.5 -2.9 8.4 2.6 8.5 -7.9 7.1 1.7 5.7 -6.4 -3.3 -3.3 -2. CPI % China Hong Kong India Indones ia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam As ia (ex Japan) As ean NIEs 2008 Q1 8.3 -2.2 3.5 5.1 13.5 8.3 6.1 6.3 3.0 3.0 2.Q4 2010 Gross domestic product annual var.3 4.5 2.7 5.1 0.6 6.5 6.8 5.6 12.9 4.1 5.5 8.5 -0.0 -0.5 1.5 2009 Q3 9.4 9.4 3.9 6.8 1.7 5.9 6.1 10.8 6.2 -1.2 1.6 3.6 9.6 0.7 1.6 4.0 -1.8 2010 Q3 9.1 3.0 3.2 7.9 6.4 4.8 3.7 2.0 1.8 6.2 -0.3 20.6 10.9 -9.3 1.9 Q2 -1.4 7.3 22.6 4.9 4.3 8.7 2.7 6.3 5.4 12.1 Q4 3.5 9.5 7.2 6.5 6.9 Q2 2.5 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.8 4.5 9.7 5.2 1.3 -0.2 2.7 5.8 5.9 19.2 0.7 Q4 2.2 2010 Q3 3.6 1.8 Q1 6.3 2.0 4.5 2.1 1.5 6.8 6.5 4.8 10.2 1.9 2.8 10.7 4.2 6.5 -8.5 4.9 13.2 3. in % China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Asean NIEs 2008 Q1 11.9 2009 Q3 -1.0 4.3 2.7 3.8 -1.7 1.5 2.4 6.5 -7.0 -0.4 3.3 -0.3 -3.0 9.5 7.FOCUSECONOMICS Summary November 2010 Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2008 .9 2.7 5.7 2.6 6.2 1.5 0.8 10.6 5.1 6.3 5.4 Q3 5.5 15.0 4.4 -1.6 4.2 5.1 11.0 4.7 6.9 GDP.8 6.2 Q4 11.2 4.4 5.8 5.4 8.2 -1.3 7.2 7.9 8.8 Q1 -0.7 8.3 -6.9 6.2 23.5 2.9 Q4 7.1 -7.4 1.5 7.5 -1.7 6.1 4.8 17.3 -6.7 7.1 2.9 9.2 Q4 0.0 1.8 6.2 5.7 1.2 7. year-on-year variation in % 15 15 Consumer Prices.3 5.1 3.5 1.4 1.1 7.0 -2.7 8.5 4.7 3.4 6.5 -4.2 0.1 2.3 7.2 2.1 10.6 7.2 6.8 -0.7 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 13 .3 3.8 3.9 -0.1 6.2 4.6 9.4 2.2 3.9 2.9 -4.9 1.3 4.7 12.2 3.8 -2.9 3.3 2.

FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Release Calendar Date 27 Octobe r 28 Octobe r 29 Octobe r Country Ko rea Ko rea Indonesia Ko rea Singapore Thailand 1 November Thailand C hina Hong Kong India Indonesia 2 November 3 November 5 November Ko rea Thailand Malaysia Philippines Taiwan 8 November 10 Nove mber Taiwan Taiwan Ko rea Malaysia Philippines 11 Nove mber C hina C hina C hina C hina India 12 Nove mber 14 Nove mber 15 Nove mber 16 Nove mber 18 Nove mber 19 Nove mber 20 Nove mber 22 Nove mber 23 Nove mber Indonesia Hong Kong India India Ko rea Singapore Indonesia Indonesia Malaysia Taiwan Hong Kong Taiwan Ko rea Singapore Event Q3 2010 National Accounts September Balance of Payments September Merchandise Trade October Industrial Production Q3 2010 Unemployment September Industrial Production September Merchandise Trade October PMI September Retail Sales October Merchandise Trade October Consumer Prices October Consumer Prices October Consumer Prices September Merchandise Trade October Consumer Prices October Consumer Prices October Producer Prices October Merchandise Trade October Unemployment September Industrial Production September Merchandise Trade October Consumer Prices October Fixed Asset Investment October Retail Sales October Industrial Production September Industrial Production September Industrial Production Q3 2010 National Accounts September Industrial Production October Wholesale Prices October Merchandise Trade October Merchandise Trade Q3 2010 Balance of Payments Q3 2010 National Accounts Q3 2010 National Accounts Q3 2010 Balance of Payments October Consumer Prices October Unemployment Q3 2010 External Debt October Consumer Prices November 2010 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 14 .

as he has kept his personal beliefs to himself in public appearances. however.3 1. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 15 .6% over the same period the year before. the panel expects inflation to moderate a notch to 3.650 9. the panel sees economic growth slowing to 8.294 1.9 11.2 -1.0 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 REAL SECTOR | Economic growth continues to moderate in third quarter In the third quarter.165 9. which had seen the economy expanding 9. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 9. Consensus Forecast panellists have left their forecasts for GDP growth unchanged over last month and expect the economy to grow 9.6 10. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 1. According the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However.0 5.6 9. 9.3% expansion registered in the second quarter. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).5 Xi’s political leanings with respect to economic reforms are not fully known.1% this year. Chinese policy makers implemented a series of measure designed to cool the housing market and new loan growth.6% year-on-year.0 % 10.326 3.1 2.9% this year. when he steps down as head of state in 2013. In 2011. Note: Year-on-year changes in %. but was broadly in line with market expectations. in addition to mentoring Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.0 12.9%.FOCUSECONOMICS China November 2010 China China Outlook stable • On 18 October. expect inflation to average 3.0 2005-09 1.2 -2. as a result of a higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing growth. For 2011.5 2010-14 1.382 7. once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013.4 12.0%. Going forward.6 8.9 • • Keith Catlin Senior Economist POLITICS | Xi Jinping appointed vice-president of Central Military Commission On 18 October. as heir-apparent to succeed President Hu Jintao.7 -0.510 1. The reading came in below the 10. which is unchanged over last month’s projection.3 10. state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected vice-president of the Central Military Commission.8 2. Panellists.5% in August to 3.1 11. some China watchers think that he will likely take cues from his father.6 3. the slowdown in the third quarter was the result of a higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing the rapid expansion of the economy.6% in September. Vice-President Xi is likely to clarify his views about economic policies as well as about domestic and foreign issues. Gross Domestic Product | annual variation in % 13.0 11. Inflation rose from 3.825 5. The move cements Xi.0 9. Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9. thus cementing his position as Hu Jintao’s likely successor. however. state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was elected vice-president of the Central Military Commission at the recent Communist Party Central Commission plenary session.562 2. Earlier this year. who was an official under Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.681 10. who has held a variety of important posts within the Chinese hierarchy.1 4.7%.

the government currently expects the economy to grow 9. down from the 15. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.8% over the same month last year. nominal retail sales added 18. annual average growth in industrial production moderated for the first time in a year.6 26. which accelerated from 28. which is 0.7% in August to 18.0 Year-on-year 19.9 13.1 17.1%. The figure came in above the 18.9 10. down a notch from the second quarter’s 18. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.7 13. of industrial production in %. On the other hand.0% expansion.5% in the third quarter.9% yoy). REAL SECTOR | Retail sales pick up speed In September. electronic equipment manufacturing also slowed.0 % 18. Consensus Forecast panellists expect retail sales to grow 18.0%.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Note: Year-on-year and annual average var.0 According to official media. nominal urban fixed-asset investment increased 24.4% in September. industrial production expanded 13. January and February data are reported together.5 18.4 18. slowed over the previous month (August: +35. One of the primary drivers behind the monthly deceleration was transport equipment.1% year-on-year growth in August to 31.3 17. which had seen investment slowing to 24. For next year.9% expansion recorded in the second quarter. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year. urban fixed-asset investment grew 23. the panel expects industrial production growth to moderate to 13.6%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 16 . Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.4 25.4 25.3 13. The pick-up in retail was.8 14.8% figure tallied in the first eight months of the year and undershot market expectations by a notch.5% this year.0 16.9% in September. Meanwhile.2 percentage points down over last month’s forecast.0 31.9% this year.6 26.7 20.6 30. For 2011.3 percentage points down from last month’s estimate. September: +29.9% expansion and undershot market expectations. As a result of the September reading.6% year-on-year in August to 14. the panel anticipates retail sales to slow to 17.3 23.7% yoy).FOCUSECONOMICS Industrial Production | variation in % China November 2010 25.0 15.1 15. panellists expect the economy to expand 8. panellists have left their projections unchanged over the previous month and expect the economy to expand 9. car sales. Based on the nine-month growth rate published by the National Statistical Office (NBS).0 5. In addition.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep In the first nine months of the year. Currently.5 13. which is the highest level since July 2009.9%. For 2011.6%. moderating to 11.6% annually (August: +14. annual average retail sales continued to rise. REAL SECTOR | Investment slows again 20. Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of nominal urban fixed investment in %. falling a notch from 16.2 16.4 13. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year. nominal retail sales added 18. industrial production growth weakened to 13.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales in %. The reading came in below the previous month’s 13. REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slows in September In September.4% in the third quarter.0 Year-on-year Annual Average 35.4% increase tallied in August and overshot market expectations.5% reading.9% in August to 16. Nominal Urban Fixed Investment | variation in % 40.9% which is unchanged over last month’s Consensus. which had previously been an important driver in the surge in retail sales.0 Year-on-year 22.2 18.8%. January and February data are reported together.0 18. in part.0 24.5 18.9 23.2 16.8 16.3 24. Annual Average 18.1 35.2 yoy.0 % Annual Average 20.2 20.3% over the same month last year. Meanwhile. the result of stronger sales for foodstuffs.0% this year. improving from 17.2% year-on-year in September.3 25. which was down from the previous month’s 23. Despite the strong September reading.5% over the same period last year.0 % 26. which is 0.5 17. which had seen retail sales accelerating only a notch to an 18.9% reading.5 20. Nominal Retail Sales | variation in % 24.0 Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial output to grow 15. which slowed from 16.7 18.7 20.9 22. which had seen industrial production strengthening to a 14.8 15.5 15. The reading was down from the 24.1 22. January and February data are affected by to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year.5% increase.9 18.

which is 0. More moderate producer prices may feed into lower consumer prices going forward.5 3.8 2. as nine of the 11 components composing the index rose over the previous month. the panel expects inflation to moderate a notch to 3. which is 0.0 -1.3%. As a result of the September figure. For 2011.0%. For 2011.5 Annual Average 1. OUTLOOK | PMI jumps in September 55 50 % 45 40 35 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 The September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL) rose by 2.1 percentage points to 53. the government maintains a 3.1 3. Currently. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).1% in 2010. which mirrored the previous month’s reading.0 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Note: One-year lending rate in %.0% inflation target for this year. the category that experienced the most marked increase was input prices. the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the market by lifting both the 1-year deposit rate and the headline 1year lending rate by 25 basis points. The hike represented the fourth time this year that the PBOC increased the RRR. which had seen the index rising only to 52. The hike came on the heels of the 11 October decision to raise the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. the highest level in over a year. from 2. Note: Purchasing Managers’ Index from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). Inflation | Consumer Price Index 4.0 2. That said. respectively. were flat over the previous month.56%. while a reading below 50% implies a contraction.0 After the close of business on 19 October. the index has now tallied more than a year and a half above the 50% threshold after plummeting far below that level in November 2008.5 0. The decision took effect on 20 October.9 1.7 2.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep -0.0%.25% to 2. the producer price index (PPI) added a more-than-expected 4. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises again in September In September.1 percentage points down from last month’s estimate.0 7. monetary policy makers had left interest rates unchanged since December 2008. in contrast. The figure beat market forecasts. The main drivers behind the increase were higher prices for food.4 3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 17 . Producer prices. the panel expects investment to moderate to 22. With the September reading.5% for the country’s largest lenders.8%. The figure came in a notch above the 3. A reading above 50 shows an increase while a value below 50 shows a decrease.3% annually.3 2. On 20 October. Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC).6 -0. % 6. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Furthermore. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 3. consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month to reach 3.0 % 0. the RRR stands at 17.0 5. Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that inflation risks could increase going forward. but was in line with market expectations. with the last move taking place in May.31% to 5. the reading represented the highest level in nearly two years. which could indicate an increase in price pressures going forward. In September.5% year-on-year increase registered in the previous month.2 percentage points up from last month’s estimate. annual average inflation rose from the 1. Furthermore.6% annually.0 1.9% registered in August to 2.FOCUSECONOMICS China November 2010 Purchasing Managers’ Index 60 Consensus Forecast participants expect urban fixed-asset investment growth to accelerate to 25.0%.50% and from 5. a tighter monetary policy corroborates the notion that Chinese leaders are not concerned about a global double-dip recession. MONETARY SECTOR | PBOC surprises market by raising interest rates Monetary Policy Rate | in % 8.0 Year-on-year 3. The improvement was broad-based. Currently. These measures signal that the country’s policy makers are firmly committed to keeping inflation expectations under control.6 2.0 -2.1% for the full year 2010.8 Note: Annual and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.9 3. A reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding.

1% over the same month last year to reach USD 145. imports and trade balance in USD billion.1% year-on-year (August: +35.9 billion in September.7% this year and 14.0%. the three-month average in exports reached USD 143.2% yoy) to reach USD 128.0 billion pre-crisis peak reached in September 2008.4% expansion in August and undershot market expectations. Despite the moderation in September. As a result. which had seen exports growing 26.3% in 2011.1 billion.0 billion. which is well above the USD 136. Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.FOCUSECONOMICS China EXTERNAL SECTOR | Export growth moderates further November 2010 Merchandise Trade | USD bn 150 100 In September. exports added 25. imports grew 24. The figure came in below the 34. Meanwhile.1 billion in August to USD 16. The reading represented the fourth consecutive month of slowing export growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 18 . the trade surplus shrunk from USD 20. 50 0 Trade Balance -50 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Exports Imports Note: Monthly exports. Consensus Forecast panellists estimate year exports to grow 24.3 billion.

31 6.9 51.5 13.59 11.1 -1.382 5.5 2.1 -0.5 17. Fixed Urban Invest.3 52.7 12.79 2012 1.2 5.5 2.4 6.2 21.1 7. var.18 7.365 4.6 12.6 9.8 1.9 2. (ann.2 -1.0 10.1 15.8 13.353 22.228 10.1 9.7 Q2 11 8.83 6.5 3.61 6.9 6.0 372 262 1. in %) Industrial Production (ann.5 6. in %) Nom.775 5.9 281 12.55 6.36 Aug-10 23.406 4.1 12.330 24.0 18.7 4.1 17.5 3.31 6.2 4.7 3.2 13.4 6.7 5.6 429 8.1 Q4 09 11.3 17.5 5.3 Q4 11 9.9 9.3 15.1 2.6 4.15 6. var.5 55. annual variation in %) 12-Month Lending Rate (%.3 6.31 Sep-10 23.9 386 6. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.9 299 158 1.1 6.7 18.9 16.2 2.2 55.946 20.391 6. var.2 2.667 6.4 51.9 19.5 12.70 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 19 .720 1.133 17. in %) Private Consumption (ann.5 11.7 3.5 56.0 9.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .6 1.1 17.83 6.0 16.7 20.4 6.0 2.7 34.94 6.6 375 8.3 6.7 22.31 6.5 18.5 5.9 13.07 8.0 0.1 -1.430 1.58 -8.0 16.8 272 176 1.0 6.218 956 25.1 5.5 20.6 2.4 17. in %) Industrial Production (ann.7 2.922 1.8 Q4 10 8.9 4.2 5.825 1. var.2 6.33 5. eop) Monthly Data Nom.6 1.82 7.5 3.47 Jul-10 22.7 496 5.1 7.0 13.2 161 102 763 660 28.95 6.720 4.1 15.7 1.7 819 14.3 3.3 13.9 6.0 4.899 22.5 4.0 -11.7 13.83 2010 1.4 5. annual average in %) Inflation (PPI.5 6. eop) Exchange Rate (CNY per USD.4 13.9 4.4 18.83 Dec-09 20.6 9.006 1.3 8.85 6.8 18.9 3.685 2.6 20.323 2.83 6.2 -0.30 7.83 Jan-10 26.31 -65.293 10.032 2.066 16.4 7.4 22.2 -1.6 3.6 Q3 10 9.0 13.80 2014 1.55 6.578 7. in %) Retail Sales (annual var.9 21.211 9.5 4.0 26.4 12.95 6.8 13.2 323 12.2 -2.3 Q2 10 10.6 364 116 2. var.2 3.01 6.83 2006 1.78 2013 1.0 9. in %) Industrial Production (ann.72 4.0 Q1 11 8.7 15.6 2.7 7.5 3. in %) Retail Sales (annual var.8 6.79 Mar-10 26.12 6.1 18.9 5.31 6.399 28.4 6.8 1.31 80.322 1.3 396 6.4 17.7 5.1 26.31 6.2 -0.09 3.1 19.0 5.70 Apr-10 25.845 9.7 53.0%-point threshold) Inflation (CPI.8 23.374 4. Fixed Urban Invest.12 130 7.7 25.4 17.1 4.184 5.9 540 5.1 5.1 2.1 2.8 6.6 1.7 6.5 442 5.005 -16.5 3.331 3.711 9. in %) Unemployment (% of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.23 3.0 55.9 18.4 25. var.9 0.3 18. var.4 8.564 3.83 2008 1.6 13.6 Q3 09 9.93 9.646 8.5 3.9 6.557 14.83 2009 1.574 18.8 1. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.8 53.5 1.4 250 177 969 792 27.83 China November 2010 2007 1.8 5.9 13. annual var. (ann.711 9.92 3.8 339 147 1.61 May-10 25.528 19.671 11.3 18. eop) Exchange Rate (CNY per USD.0 297 196 1. eop) Stock Market (SSE comp.8 12.83 2011 1.2 32.340 3.54 Jun-10 24.9 3.7 3.7 4.7 1. in %) Inflation (CPI.0 6.8 3.2 11.6 Q3 11 8.838 6.3 5.8 3.391 13.9 -0.1 274 164 1.0 5. in %) PMI (50.04 6.3 12.46 4.47 96.4 30.8 4.1 2.4 16.2 5.505 1.7 19.8 18.8 18.6 20.450 21.202 1. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (CNY per USD.3 -1.1 21.1 52. in %) Exchange Rate (CNY per USD.358 8.4 1.654 23.3 -2.984 9.4 426 297 1.5 18.83 Feb-10 26.535 9.7 17.9 1.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.7 21.6 6.9 -1.314 2.0 Q1 10 11. annual var.80 5.1 9.5 2.1 5. eop) 2005 1.400 7.894 4.76 6.2 374 11. annual average in %) 12-Month Lending Rate (%.9 9.94 9.6 17.31 6.

2010) ADB (Sep. Mrkts.9 9.6 2011 9. 9 Industrial production.2014 | % variation 18 China Asia (ex Japan) World China November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 20 China Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 12 15 10 6 5 0 0 -6 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 14 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 12 Maximum Consensus Minimum 10 12 10 8 8 6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 15 China Asia (ex Japan) 6 | Investment | % variation 40 China Asia (ex Japan) 30 10 20 Individual Forecasts Allianz ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.8 8.9 10.0 9.0 9.6 10. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Lloyds TSB Corp.0 9.5 10. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. See below for details.8 9.9 8. 5 Private consumption.8 8.2 10. Source: NBS. 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 11 2010 2011 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 28 2010 2011 26 10 24 9 22 8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 20 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 20 . annual variation in %. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 8.7 10.8 8.2 9.0 10.0 9.9 8. % of active population.5 9.8 8. Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts IMF (Oct.5 8. All real sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. year-on-year variation in %. 12 Industrial production.0 10. 3 GDP. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 11 Balance of central government.5 9. % of GDP. Source: FocusEconomics estimate.0 10. Source: NBS. Source: NBS. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted). Source: NBS. Source: ADB.9 8.7 9.0 8. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 9.0 8. 2010) 2010 10.1 10.6 8.2 10. 10 Urban unemployment. 4 GDP.0 9.0 8.1 Notes and sources 10 5 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.5 8. 14 Balance of central government.0 10.6 10.9 9. annual variation in %.0 10.6 9.7 8. 8 Nominal urban fixed investment.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 .0 10.5 8.0 10.5 10.9 9. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Asian Development Bank (ADB) and FocusEconomics estimates.3 8. Source: NBS.8 10.1 9. 6 Nominal urban fixed investment. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 GDP.6 9.0 10. annual variation in %.0 9.7 9.0 8.5 10.5 9. 7 Private consumption.0 8.6 9. 13 Unemployment. annual variation in %. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.

6 9.7 Industry % variation 2010 2011 16.1 -1.7 -1.0 -2.7 -2.0 13.2 4.1 4. 5 China Asia (ex Japan) 4 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 4 China Asia (ex Japan) World 0 18 12 3 6 -4 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2 1995 2000 2005 2010 -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 16 2010 2011 14 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 4.3 15.0 -2.0 28.1 -2.3 12.7 -2.3 -3.5 12.0 15.5 9.8 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.7 -2.3 15.6 13.8 15.4 9. 2010 2011 4. Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 9 | Industry | % variation 24 China Asia (ex Japan) Investment % variation 2010 2011 26.4 9.0 20.5 9.8 -2.0 9.7 9.2 4.6 Unemployment % of active pop.6 13.3 4.0 14.0 -3.0 25.4 9.0 1.4 9.9 -1.3 4.3 4.4 9.1 4.0 20.3 China November 2010 Individual Forecasts Allianz ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.2 4.7 9.5 -2.8 -2.2 9.2 4.0 25.0 15.0 9.5 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -1 2010 2011 -2 12 4.2 17.5 24.3 4.0 15.0 25.9 -1.6 15.9 25.0 -2.0 9.0 14.5 13.5 -1.6 -2.7 12.0 12.0 22. Mrkts.4 9.3 9.3 4.9 -1.8 17.5 22.8 9.1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 21 .5 -2.0 9.3 -2.4 -1.5 25.0 21.6 -2.5 12.4 9.2 4.2 9.9 13.6 13.0 9.7 9.3 -1.0 4.3 4.0 25.0 -1. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Lloyds TSB Corp.8 -3.0 4.6 16.0 21.0 13.5 9.7 2010 2011 4.5 21.2 4.6 -3.3 4.0 26.0 28.5 23.5 -2.0 17.8 9.3 12.4 9.1 4.3 4.7 21.0 -2.6 -2.2 4.5 -3.6 -2.0 15.2 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -2.3 4.8 -2.3 17.0 4.0 21.0 21.4 -2.0 25.3 4.1 1.3 -2.9 -3.0 9.0 -1.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010 2011 9.1 24.3 -3 10 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4.0 -2.5 13.0 -2.1 -3.7 9.0 20.0 12.

8 2. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. var.1 2.5 2. 21 Daily MSCI Broad China index in USD. All monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Money.0 2.000 2.9 2. 19 Producer price index.7 3.000 3. 2010) 2010 3.5 4. 2008 until end of previous month.0 2.5 2.0 2. 17 Inflation. Source: NBS.5 3.2014 | in % 20 China Asia (ex Japan) 8 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 12 China Asia (ex Japan) Inflation | annual avg. 20 Money.4 3. 2000-2009.5 4.500 22 | Stock Market | SSE 6.0 3. 2010) ADB (Sep. Source: NBS.7 3.0 4.2 2.0 4. Jan.0 2.2 3.7 3.1 3. Source: PBOC.8 3. Source: NBS.000 3.3 4. 18 Inflation.0 2.000 1. 1995-2009.6 3. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 .0 3.8 2.000 5. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. annual variation of M1 in %. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Lloyds TSB Corp.500 2.5 2.5 1.FOCUSECONOMICS China November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation. 16 Quarterly inflation. 15 Inflation. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.0 3.2 -5 2000 2003 2006 2009 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.5 3.7 4. Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange. average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.000 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.000 1. 21 | MSCI Broad China Index 3. 22 Daily index levels.1 3.3 2.5 2. 2008 until end of previous month.4 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.3 3.0 3.8 3. 10 20 | Money | % variation 40 30 5 20 0 10 Individual Forecasts Allianz ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 3. From Jan. See below for details. Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts IMF (Oct. of consumer price index in % 15 10 4 5 0 0 -5 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 6 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 6 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 2 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Producer Prices | % var.0 3. annual variation in % (eop).0 3.8 2.9 3.2 2011 3.1 3.9 4.4 3.3 2.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 22 .000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1.7 1. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE).500 4. Source: MSCI Barra.5 2. Mrkts.

33 International reserves. 29 Exchange rate.03 6. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.60 6.38 6. 24 Quarterly interest rate. 36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: PBOC.61 6.56 6.47 5.5 Notes and sources 5 1995 2000 2005 2010 6.20 5.40 6. Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 8 7.54 6.20 5.60 6.90 6.5 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 23 .54 5. 34 Current account in USD bn.68 6.64 6.95 5.70 6.30 5. CNY per USD (eop).0 6 6.65 6. Mrkts.64 6.5 6.85 6.30 5.CNY per USD (eop).12 6. 6. Source: Customs.25 5. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.63 6.12 6.5 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 6.58 5. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months. 27 Exchange rate.50 6.5 6.31 6.38 5.28 6.20 5.31 6.57 5. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Lloyds TSB Corp.12 6. 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop).78 6.2014 | in % 14 China November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 8 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % CNY per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 6.67 6.64 6.60 6.60 6.36 6. months of imports.31 6.85 6.58 6.40 6. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 7 26 | Int.55 6.40 6.60 6.5 7 7. imports and exports.55 5.94 5. State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (Customs). evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 23 Interest rate.85 6.00 6. 26 Interest rate.49 6.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .45 6.61 5.62 6.31 5. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 8 7 6 6 5 5 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep 27 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 9 28 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 8.0 30 | CNY/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 7. 25 Interest rate. Source: PBOC.00 5.85 6. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.95 6.0 Maximum Consensus Minimum 5. in USD bn. Source: PBOC.62 6.85 5. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months. 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop).66 6.20 5.65 5..0 Maximum Consensus Minimum 5.40 5.31 6.31 5. See below for details.99 5. Source: Customs.20 5.66 5. 35 Exports. 30 Exchange rate.0 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.58 6.56 6. 28 Quarterly exchange rate. Source: SAFE.50 6.85 5.90 5. annual variation in %.21 6.30 5.57 6.0 Individual Forecasts Allianz ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 29 | CNY/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 7.58 6.01 6.36 6. the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).77 5.78 6. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. Source: PBOC. 32 Trade balance.61 6.58 5.36 12 7 10 8 6 6 4 1995 2000 2005 2010 5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int. Source: SAFE.60 6.65 6. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).24 5.58 6.

771 1.900 2. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 210 204 267 301 320 380 290 309 321 334 139 175 245 210 227 190 321 250 260 228 231 278 276 343 304 338 326 331 303 321 361 200 220 175 380 288 274 272 267 264 175 380 288 274 273 268 268 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 150 130 200 208 220 173 191 230 245 92 76 144 109 167 135 158 121 175 180 101 93 269 273 182 204 200 92 269 174 176 174 161 159 76 273 157 164 161 147 144 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 1.650 2.562 1.550 2.511 1.557 1.622 1.FOCUSECONOMICS China November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.550 2.669 1.374 1.400 1.947 1.146 2.859 2.556 1.720 1.555 Int.346 1.947 1.200 1.348 1.502 1.899 2.900 2.831 1.781 1.881 2.700 2.650 2.562 1.646 1.400 1.465 1.146 1.690 2.756 1.850 2. Mrkts.680 1.700 2.478 1.723 1.899 2.550 2.550 2.738 1.540 1.495 1. Reserves | months of imports 30 China Asia (ex Japan) 25 1.700 2.368 1.460 1. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Lloyds TSB Corp.702 1.550 1. Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 15 China Asia (ex Japan) 10 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 2.685 2.526 1.337 1.560 1.265 1.370 1.431 1.700 3.385 1.250 1.327 1.680 1.331 1.730 1.654 2.347 1.690 2.308 1.653 1.630 1. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 2.278 1.492 1.800 3.366 1.348 1.146 2.838 1.650 2.956 2.861 2.581 1.555 1.710 1.200 15 0 600 10 -5 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 5 1995 2000 2005 2010 34 | Current Account | evol.467 1.635 2.699 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 1.800 20 5 1.654 2.507 1.510 1.547 1.519 1.800 2.490 1.478 1.100 2.346 1.746 1.330 1.490 1.505 1.395 1.400 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.956 Individual Forecasts Allianz ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.484 1.720 1. of fcst 450 2010 2011 400 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 45 36 | External Debt | % of GDP 60 China Asia (ex Japan) 30 45 15 350 30 0 300 -15 China Asia (ex Japan) 15 250 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 24 .507 1.146 1.975 2.600 1.766 3.330 1.838 1.

growth rate (%.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .): 139 Pop. 2009 est. 2009 est.2 m) Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia Korea 2% Malaysia Other 1% 10% Korea 10% Indonesia 6% China 43% India 15% Malaysia 2% Other 14% Indonesia 7% Area (km2): 9.835 3.5 28.247 Services 38% Services 41% 482 77.912 7.5 Illiteracy rate (%. 2000): 9.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 23.338 Pop.834 3.796 77. 2009 est.715 110.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.596.3 m) Shanghai (19. density (per km2.7 Life expectancy (years.1 Language: Mandarin Chinese and other Measures: Metric & local systems Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT Economic Infrastructure India 37% China 53% Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .960 Population (million.808 3. 2009 est. Ningbo Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % USA 7% EU-27 11% Japan 12% Hong Kong & Macao 3% Other Asia 22% USA 18% EU-27 20% Political Data Prime Minister: Last elections: Next elections: Chairman of the PBOC: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Hu Jintao 15 March 2008 March 2013 Zhou Xiaochuan Other 25% Exports Japan 8% Hong Kong & Macao 14% Imports Other 45% Other Asia 15% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating A1 A+ A+ Outlook Positive Stable Stable Primary products | share in % Agricultural products 8% Fuel and mining products 28% Manufactur es 93% Strengths Weaknesses Exports Fuels and mining products 4% Agricultural products 3% Imports • Huge domestic market • Large workforce • Competitive labour costs • Lack of comprehensive infrastructure • Nascent legal system • Financial system vulnerability Manufact ures 65% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 25 .): 73.582 6.3 55.7 Agricultur e 16% Industry 46% Industry 48% 1999 Agricultur e 11% 2009 70.): 0.2 m) Chengdu (11.): 1.041 2.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data China November 2010 China in the Region Official name: Capital: Other cities: People's Republic of China Beijing (13.5 7.0 m) Chongqing (5.000 Shanghai. Canton.583.

5%.6%. which rose 29. Moreover.9 7.7 165 24.4 -2. the panel expects inflation to rise to 3. For 2011.7% over the same month last year.4 -2.2 264 36.2 17. In 2011.2% in the three-month period ending in August.0% in August to 2. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand 5. August’s reading represented the seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth. the trend continues to point up. but overshot market expectations. the panel expects the economy to expand 4.3 11.0% year-on-year. as annual average growth in retail sales increased from 11. Seasonally adjusted figures corroborate the strong growth suggested by the annual data.9% this year.0 Annual average 31. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 26 . the government expects inflation to experience upward pressures in the coming months.2% increase recorded in July (previously reported +16.8 2. which is up 0.9 16. A government spokesman stated that. That said.7% over the same moth last year in volume terms.0 11.3 12.0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 8.6% in September. Retail Sales | variation in % 40.6 216 • • Joan Enric Domene Economist REAL SECTOR | Retail sales continue to grow at a strong pace in August In August. thus.6 300 2010-14 7. The August expansion was broad-based.791 4. The figure was down from the revised 16.2 0.0%). in spite of concerns regarding slowing global demand. However. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand 5. Panellists expect inflation to average 2.6 0.5 20.0 11.FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong November 2010 Hong Kong Hong Kong Outlook improves • Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to fuel economic growth. watches and valuable gifts.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.430 4. which is unchanged from last month’s projection.0 % 10. looking ahead. Inflation dropped from 3. which had seen retail sales slowing to 13. together with robust inbound tourism should continue to support retail businesses in the near term. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 6.2%.0 2.0 -0.3 10.7% in USD terms in August. reflecting a strong consumer sentiment. exports continue to steam ahead. positive developments in the labour market and income prospects.0 YoY 30. adding 35.3 7. the main drivers behind the rise were sales of consumer durable goods. which is up 0.0%. Furthermore. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion. as retail sales increased 2.0 1. For 2011.9% this year. Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics calculations.5%.9 200 28. retail sales rose 14.7% this year. which increased by 28.4 16.7 2.2 14.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. as well as jewellery.9 -10.7 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation in %.5 188 2005-09 6. compared to the previous period ending in May.934 4.2% in July to 12.6% in August. the panel expects the economy to expand 4.4 3. as retail sales rose a strong 14.

For 2011.4 0.0 4. which had seen inflation remaining at 3.1 -0.0 0.4 0. housing (+0.7% mom). which more than offset lower prices for electricity.3% this year. The increase was the result of higher prices for food (+0.5% mom) as well as clothing and footwear (+1.1 0. annual inflation dropped from 3.FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in September November 2010 Inflation | Consumer Price Index 3.0%.6%. as wages and rentals continue to rise in tandem with the economic recovery.3% mom). Higher import prices due to rising global food prices and a weaker US dollar.0 2. owing to the USD-HKD peg.1 0.0 % 0. The government sees inflation averaging 2.0%.7 -0. the panel expects annual average inflation to rise further to 3.3 2.7% this year.1 -0.1 2.0 Monthly (left scale) -2. annual average inflation inched up from 1.0% in August to 2.0 0. The decline in inflation was mainly due to the lower comparison base in August last year when the one-off electricity subsidy was paid by the government. 1.0 1. A government spokesman stated that consumer prices are subject to upward pressures. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 27 . may further fuel inflation. undershooting market expectations. which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Annual (right scale) Apr May Jun -1.9% in August to 2. Despite the monthly price increase. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.9% month-on-month). However.2 0. gas and water (-0.0 In September. which contrasted the 0.0%.4 -2.0 % 0.0 Jul Aug Sep Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.4 -1.1% drop recorded in August. Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong. consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month.

1 22.22 Dec-09 11.90 34.4 3.3 0.6 0.76 7.7 4.6 29.0 5.8 -0.7 4.2 -37.3 -46.2 0.2 4.7 25.3 349 8.0 29. var.0 Q1 10 8.1 4. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 money in %) Inflation (CPI.7 0.3 -23.1 310 8.2 4.1 365 388 5.1 0.79 13.2 -7.9 0.2 1.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.6 -44.2 4.3 2.8 25.3 2.6 -0.503 245 4.2 -0.9 1.57 Aug-10 14.9 -10.814 263 4.8 3.9 0.3 1.8 2.7 Q2 11 5.0 3.9 17.4 1.80 7.1 2.8 Q3 10 5.2 Q4 10 4.3 -1.79 7.0 0.7 0.1 3.7 3.7 -53.5 4.7 4.4 473 515 7.8 3.5 5.1 Q3 11 4.7 2.0 1.694 215 2.0 2.0 2014 7.78 11.33 Apr-10 12.9 414 461 9.769 302 4.2 2.6 0.4 20.1 2.9 -14.1 2.3 4.8 2012 7.0 3. ann.42 7.0 2.79 7.8 39.9 0.0 29.999 178 7.79 7.95 -48. % of active population) Inflation (CPI.2 124 5.5 2.8 377 414 17.5 2.0 -10.0 0.0 5. eop) Monthly Data Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.2 5.0 4.0 Q4 11 4.8 6.0 2009 7.8 -8.7 11.75 7.78 8.8 -6.1 Q1 11 4.5 373 8.0 0.5 4.9 322 349 -11.9 7.80 12.6 0.1 32.3 25.79 7.8 512 558 8.5 2011 7.8 2.93 Sep-10 4.4 1.3 2013 7.1 2.1 2.2 4. eop) Exchange Rate (HKD per USD.0 30.77 12.4 -0.249 282 4. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.9 283 8.6 133 4.6 6.9 -0.1 4.4 -1.2 4.4 2.9 0.4 2010 7.4 8.97 7.1 2.4 4.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .8 20.4 4. var.79 7.6 1.1 3.0 Hong Kong November 2010 2007 7.3 4.0 18.8 2008 7.3 -26.4 8.7 0.79 7.4 -0. annual variation in %) 91-day HIBOR (%.79 5.0 13.5 -1.2 3.8 1.6 -42.2 256 8.5 4.4 -1.2 36.3 0.1 2.5 4.0 5. annual average in %) Inflation (PPI.4 2.1 2.5 7.334 229 5.1 2.4 438 484 6.4 0.5 3.6 Q2 10 6.0 4.488 190 7.0 7.1 2.7 2.8 11.79 8.3 4.3 0.42 May-10 16.0 318 332 9.8 1.46 Jul-10 16.7 4. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.2 -0.7 2.4 3.6 0.6 2.23 4.15 Feb-10 31.2 10.9 27.9 4.3 7.2 2.5 -19.5 9.4 4.79 7.75 7.77 7.64 7.2 39.9 10.45 39.41 Jun-10 11.75 8.93 7.4 3. in %) Inflation (CPI.4 0.7 346 366 8.1 1.7 18.5 1.3 2006 6.2 153 5.6 1.9 5.6 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 28 .4 3.8 Q4 09 2.8 0.4 1.0 1. in %) Private Consumption (annual var. annual average in %) 91-day HIBOR (%.6 290 297 11.14 Jan-10 3.2 3. ann.9 0.6 0.14 52.1 311 7.2 0. eop) Stock Market (variation of HSI in %) Exchange Rate (HKD per USD.4 19.80 7.0 Q3 09 -2.4 7.2 41.3 7.3 5. annual variation in %) 2005 6.3 2. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.9 0.3 20.2 183 5.1 34.783 207 6.2 7.57 Mar-10 17.4 8.991 211 -2.8 0.6 21.

8 2011 4. 10 Unemployment. 3 GDP. 2010) ADB (Sep.5 5. Source: C&SD.3 4.2 6.3 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 6. Source: C&SD.6 5.5 7.5 4.0 5. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 4. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 5.3 10 4 0 0 -10 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 -20 1995 2000 2005 2010 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. 4 GDP. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 Private consumption. annual variation in %.3 4.5 4. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 6. % of active population. 7 Private consumption.6 6.7 4.3 3.5 4. annual variation in %.3 2.9 5.7 4. Source: C&SD.8 6. See below for details.5 7.7 5.5 4.0 4. All real sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Treasury of Hong Kong (Treasury).FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995-2014 | % variation 12 Hong Kong November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 15 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 8 10 4 5 0 0 -4 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) World 2000 2005 2010 -5 -8 1995 -10 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 12 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) 8 6 | Investment | % variation 20 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.2 6. Source: C&SD.6 4. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.0 5.0 6. 9 Industrial production. 12 Industrial production. 6 Gross fixed investment. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: C&SD. 13 Unemployment. annual variation in %. year-on-year variation in %.8 4. 2010) IMF(Oct. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 5.0 5. -4 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 6 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 12 4 8 2 2010 2011 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 2010 2011 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 29 .5 5.0 5.4 6.0 3.8 4.5 5. 1 GDP. annual variation in %. % of GDP.0 6.5 2. 11 Consolidated fiscal balance.0 6.5 7. Source: Treasury.1 4.5 4. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Government (Sep.0 5.0 6.0 5. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted). 14 Consolidated fiscal balance.0-6. 8 Gross fixed investment.4 5.5 5.6 4. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: C&SD. 2010) 2010 5.

8 4.4 4.0 4.9 9.9 12.0 4.9 -0.4 4.4 -0.9 7.2 -0.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Hong Kong November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.5 4.3 4.5 -0.6 5.0 4.0 0.7 4.1 -1.2 4.5 6.3 -1.0 0.0 4.0 5.5 4.0 5.8 9.2 4.7 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.7 6.3 1.5 8.2 4.2 3.5 14.8 4.6 1.7 5.0 3.4 6.6 2.4 -0.5 1.5 -2.5 0.9 4.8 4.1 9.6 6.4 -1.6 -0.5 9.0 4.0 5.5 4.6 9.9 6.2 4.1 4.6 3.3 5.7 9.1 6.0 7.7 5.0 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -1.5 4.3 -1.0 -1.2 5.5 4.4 Investment % variation 2010 2011 10.0 3.0 14.5 -0.1 8.1 9. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Consumption % variation 2010 2011 5.0 4.7 12.1 5.6 7.1 -0.2 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.8 9.4 4.9 4.3 4.3 -0.5 4.5 5.5 15.0 3.0 4.5 -0.8 4.8 6.0 9.8 4. 2010 2011 4.0 4.1 9.0 15.4 3.0 7.0 4.1 8.1 9 | Industry | % variation 20 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.7 -1.1 2.4 -0.4 4.5 4.3 5.8 Unemployment % of active pop.5 4.0 7.4 4.1 8.0 4.8 0.9 13.5 3.2 -0.6 5.5 9.5 8.5 9.9 -1. 8 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 10 10 6 0 4 -10 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) -20 1995 2000 2005 2010 2 1995 2000 2005 2010 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) 5 0 -5 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) World 2000 2005 2010 -10 1995 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 6 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 7 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 2 2010 2011 3 6 0 0 5 -2 -3 2010 2011 -6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 2010 2011 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 30 .9 4.5 4.5 -1.0 4.5 8.0 3.3 4.1 7.2 4.7 -2.

0 3.3 2.1995-2009 Source: HKMA. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 2. 2010) IMF (Oct.1 5. 22 Daily index levels. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 3.5 2. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Government (Sep.0 3.1 3.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 10.1 2.0 2. Hang Seng Index (HSI).0 2.5 2.7 2.2 2. 21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD.000 22 | Stock Market | HSI 30.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 31 .6 3.3 2. Jan.1 3. 20 Money. 19 Producer price index.9 3.FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.000 20. annual variation in % (eop).3 2.000 9.2 2. All monetary sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).7 2.3 2. Source: C&SD.6 2011 2. var. 2008 until end of previous month. 6 20 | Money | % variation 50 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. of consumer price index in % 5 3 0 0 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) -5 1995 2000 2005 2010 -3 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 6 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 9 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 6 0 3 -3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Producer Prices | % var. 18 Inflation.0 2. 21 | MSCI Price Index 11. Source: MSCI Barra.4 2.0 4. Jan.000 15. Money. 2010) 2010 2.3 3.1 3.000 25.2 3.7 2.9 2.000 7. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 .8 4 25 2 0 0 -2 -4 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 -25 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.6 2. 2008 until end of previous month. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 2.1 3.7 2.7 2.0 2. Source: C&SD.0 5. annual variation of M1 in %.0 2.0 2. Source: Hang Seng Bank. See below for details.000 3. year-on-year variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).8 2.1 3. 2010) ADB (Sep.5 3.3 3. Source: C&SD.6 3.0 3. 1995-2009.1 2.0 3.7 3.8 2.0 3.8 3. annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).0 2. 17 Inflation. 15 Inflation.5 2.2014 | in % 15 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) 10 6 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 9 Inflation | annual avg. 16 Quarterly inflation.000 5.

45 1. 29 Exchange rate.85 7.78 7.80 7.48 0.25 0. Source: HKMA.75 7. Source: C&SD.80 0.75 7.79 7.80 7.76 7.80 7. 28 Quarterly exchange rate. 33 International reserves.80 7..60 0.. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.80 7.30 0.2014 | in % 10 Hong Kong November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 6 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % HKD per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 0.79 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int.80 7. in USD bn.75 7.78 7.80 7.75 0. 1995-2010.25 7.79 7. 91-day HIBOR in % (eop).80 7. 34 Current account in USD bn.93 1.40 1.80 0.78 0. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.75 Notes and sources 7.50 7.80 0. 35 Exports.85 28 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD 7.75 7. Source: HKMA.75 7.80 0.75 7. imports and exports. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 26 | Int.79 7. HKD per USD (eop).75 7.48 0.80 7.80 7. 36 International reserves in USD bn.00 7.50 7. 91-day HIBOR in % (eop).70 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 29 | HKD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 7.80 7.78 7.80 0.80 7.50 1.30 0.78 7.80 7.50 7.75 7. 27 Exchange rate. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.76 0. Source: C&SD.80 0.85 30 | HKD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 7. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP.79 7.80 7. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.80 1.60 7.50 7.80 7.50 7.48 0. 24 Quarterly interest rate.25 1. Source: HKMA. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecast during the last 18 months. 30 Exchange rate. Source: HKMA.80 0.75 7. annual variation in %.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .21 1.65 Jun Maximum Consensus Minimum Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 32 .80 0. 32 Trade balance.80 0. See below for details. Source: HKMA 25 Interest rate. HKD per USD (eop).10 7.30 1.80 7.42 0.80 7.70 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 7. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 7. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 7. Source: C&SD.75 7. 23 Interest rate.79 7.50 7.30 7. months of imports.80 7.80 7.80 7.42 0.50 0.79 7.13 1.80 7. All monetary and external sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).80 7.00 0.70 1995 2000 2005 2010 7.79 7. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 27 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD 7. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 5 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.80 7. 26 Interest rate.85 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.70 Maximum Consensus Minimum 7.

3 20.2 -39.3 -30.3 -46.3 10.3 6.2 -37.6 -48.0 -38.0 -47.6 21.FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.0 -37.5 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 341 385 387 403 375 423 360 381 380 429 387 426 386 417 391 437 368 413 372 425 392 413 380 341 392 380 377 369 363 362 381 437 417 414 408 403 402 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 374 415 434 445 402 456 399 427 443 517 435 474 428 464 424 483 400 450 409 476 435 461 390 374 443 417 414 411 406 404 415 517 461 461 454 451 449 Int.1 -43.0 -88.3 -46.7 12.2 -63.0 -47.8 21.2 21.7 19.8 -32.9 -46.8 -47. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 280 310 304 353 291 326 285 330 235 218 266 279 310 335 296 331 235 310 288 283 281 268 278 218 353 328 310 304 304 302 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank of China (Hong Kong) Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.5 -46. Reserves | evol.0 28.2 -32.0 -51. of fcst 40 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 30 36 | Int.6 19.1 30.0 6.1 19.0 -30.9 30.6 21.6 11.9 -42. Core Pacific-Yamaichi Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Hang Seng Bank HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Wing Hang Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 15 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 600 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.0 -41.0 26.6 14.5 21.4 -10.2 -41.1 -47.0 -63.8 -42.2 -46.7 24.2 -48.8 -41.2 18.3 -46.9 14. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 18.7 -88.1 30.8 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 -32.1 22.7 20.2 -27.3 20.6 19.0 -37.7 26.0 22.4 10. of fcst 350 15 30 300 0 20 250 -15 2010 2011 10 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 200 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 2010 2011 150 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 33 .4 22.0 -10.0 19.0 -33.6 30. Reserves | months of imports 20 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) 15 10 400 5 200 0 0 Hong Kong Asia (ex Japan) -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 -200 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 5 10 -5 34 | Current Account | evol.8 17.3 15.

3 2004 100% 2009 75% 75% Energy (2007) Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 18.0 Population density (per km2.6 38. English Measures: Metric system and Chinese standard weights Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT Economic Infrastructure Korea 2% Indonesia 7% Other 11% Indonesia 6% China 43% Korea 10% Other 13% India 15% India 37% Hong Kong 0.4 Services Telecommunication (2009) Telephones . 2009 est. 2009): 7.5 Life expectancy (years.5 37.): 0.0 Transportation (2009) Airports: Roadways (km): Chief Ports: 2 2.5 Language: Cantonese.2 7.6 Government Consumption 5.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 59.5 325 82.5 0% Other 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 Net exports 2009 0% 5.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .9 17. 2009 est.3 m) Kowloon (2. Yam-kuen March 2007 March 2012 Joseph Yam Other 11% Exports Other Asia 19% Imports Other Asia 10% China 52% China 47% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating Aa2 AA+ AA Outlook Positive Stable Stable Primary products | share in % Other Capital Goods manufactures 57% 33% Foodstuffs 4% Fuels 3% Strengths Weaknesses Exports • Model free trade policy setting • Economic policy constrained by exchange rate system • Low tax environment • Interference from Beijing • Highly skilled labour force increases political uncertainty Consum er Goods 30% Consumer Goods 26% Imports Raw materials 36% Raw materials 36% Other 1% Capital Goods 31% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 34 .8 32.7 m) Area (km2): 1104.2 29. 2009): 6361.129 36.5 Industry 50% 1.): 81.049 Hong Kong Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 12% USA 11% EU-27 7% Japan 4% USA 5% Other 12% Japan 10% Political Data Chief Executive: Last elections: Next elections: Monetary Authority Chief Executive: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Donald T.4 Population growth rate (%.9 50% 9.7 174 61.0 Population (million.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Hong Kong November 2010 Hong Kong in the Region Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia Official name: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Capital: Hong Kong Other cities: Hong Kong Island (1. 2002): 6.9 Illiteracy rate (%.6 25% 25% Finance and Real Estate 34.0 m) New Territories (3.2% China 54% Hong Kong 2% Economic Structure GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% Commerce 31.

0% expansion in July to a 2.2 14. MONETARY SECTOR | Downward trend in wholesale prices halts in September In August. the panel anticipates the overall economy to grow 8. thus ending the downward trend in place since May. somewhat reducing the need for the Central Bank to continue tightening its monetary policy. Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and FocusEconomics calculations.9% in August. %): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 1. Consensus Forecast panellists expect wholesale price inflation to average 7.0 % 5.4 2005-09 1.2 5.137 1. with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than the previous year.236 2. which had industrial output rising 9.3 5. the consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI IW) remained flat over the previous month. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (WPI. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 8. the panel sees economic growth at 8.797 8.8% in July to 12. Owing to the flat monthly reading.5 Annual Average 15.4 5.3 15. The deceleration over the previous month was broad-based. which swung from an impressive 72. which accounts for over three quarters of total industrial output. On a use-based classification.5%.5%.9% in the current fiscal year.7 14. the panel expects industrial production to expand 8. marking the lowest level in over a year.3% in July to 9. For 2011/12. annual average growth in industrial production moderated from 12.3 10.6% over the same month last year.9 2010-14 1.0 12.0% year-on-year (July: +9. ample food supplies promise to ease price pressures.2 Year-on-Year 14. the monthly slowdown was mostly driven by a drop in the production of capital goods.9% this fiscal year.4 • • Gerardo Morán Senior Economist REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slows to 15-month low In August.0% (July: +3.5 -4.3% this fiscal year.7% expansion recorded in July. which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. whereas electricity production grew a paltry 1.7% yoy).6 5. according to the so-called quick estimate for the index of industrial production.FOCUSECONOMICS India November 2010 India India Outlook stable • The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this year.2 0.7 16. Meanwhile.2% expansion recorded in July (previously reported: +13. as agriculture is an important sector. well below the 16.5 15.040 543 520 5.9 -5. The manufacturing sector. Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8. For 2011/12.0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.9% yoy). which is unchanged over last month’s projection. the panel sees inflation falling to 5.230 1. mining added 7.8% year-on-year) and fell well short of market expectations.7 20.0 10.0 17.9 18.4 -2.6 10. Moreover.8 5.6 0. which came in well below the 2. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth. Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial production to expand 8. industrial output expanded 5. For the FY 2011/12.1 -1.2 11. In addition.6% contraction.4%. As a result of the weak figure tallied in August.3% this fiscal year.0 9.30% increase recorded in July. annual inflation fell from 11. slowed sharply and grew only 5.3% in August. The reading represented nearly a third of the 15.5 -4. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 35 .4%.6% in September.079 945 8.9%. Industrial Production | variation in % 20.

0 % 0.5%. the figure was driven by nonoil imports.9 billion in July to USD 13. which will end on March 2011. exports are still well below pre-crisis levels. which is down 0. exports rose 22.9% this current fiscal year. the more recent and comprehensive wholesale price index suggests that the downward trend in consumer prices may have come to a halt. which ends in March 2011.21 3. Merchandise Trade | USD bn 40 Trade Balance 30 Exports Imports 20 10 0 -10 -20 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Note: Monthly exports.46 0.2% year-on-year (July: +34.86 0.0 Apr May Jun Note: Monthly and annual variation of wholesale price index in %.6 billion in August. wholesale prices added 0.7 billion.2 percentage points over last month. 0.6 billion. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 36 .0 -1. which is still below the USD 56.6 billion. annual wholesale inflation inched up from 8.9 billion peak reached in July 2008.5% over the same month last year to reach USD 16. Furthermore. EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports accelerate again in August In August. the eighth consecutive month of exports growing at double-digit pace and.0 billion.FOCUSECONOMICS Inflation | Wholesale Price Index India November 2010 2.6% in September. As in recent months.57 % 6. underscoring the strength of the country’s domestic sector. which soared 41.5% this fiscal year and 16. Nonetheless. with the three-month sum of exports at USD 50.46 1.00 -0. In September.36 0. The figure mostly showed how higher prices for non-manufactured food products were partially compensated by lower prices for fuel. For the financial year 2011/12.0 1. jumping from 7.46 0.38 0.5% in August to 8.3% yoy) to reach USD 29. despite the strong growth observed in recent months.2% in September.0 However.84 12. annual average wholesale price inflation increased for the tenth consecutive month.74 0.0 9. the panel expects average wholesale inflation to moderate to 5.6% in August to 8.0 1.0 Sep Oct Month-on-Month (left scale) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Year-on-Year (right scale) Jul Aug Sep 0. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. the trade deficit widened a notch from USD 12. imports and trade balance in USD billion.43 0. The reading represented an improvement compared to the 13. Meanwhile. During the last twelve months exports have amounted to USD 188. The Central Bank expects wholesale price inflation to moderate to 6. Source: Reserve Bank of India and FocusEconomics calculations.57% over the previous month. which contrasted the 0. As a result. Consensus Forecast panellists expect wholesale inflation to average 7. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports will expand 19.6% in 2011/12. As a result of the monthly figure.1% over the same month last year.43 1.2% expansion tallied in July and marked in fact.21% price drop recorded in August. The government is targeting exports to reach USD 200 billion this current fiscal year.0 0.0% by the end of the current fiscal year. growth in imports remained broadly stable at 32.

mom variation in %) Inflation (WPI.8 8.8 4.6 43.2 Q2 10 8.1 24. annual average in %) RBI Repurchase Rate (%.6 13.6 8.3 12.2 18.2 7.2 4.7 8.6 -5.6 External Debt (USD bn) 138 172 224 225 261 266 291 311 349 367 External Debt (% of GDP) 18. in %) 9.1 -52.9 16.7 7.3 46.7 Jul-10 15. eop) Q3 09 8.7 41.2 Aug-10 5.3 3.175 1.621 1.535 2.2 45.5 8.1 Feb-10 14.5 4.4 -2.6 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.4 Q4 10 8.7 Q4 09 6.3 14.3 18.6 6.799 2.43 8.564 1.00 9.8 18.3 -1.1 9.7 47.4 5.2 3.9 6.0 -29.9 12.873 Economic Growth (GDP.8 10.6 -47.1 41.2 Exchange Rate (INR per USD.0 46.5 41.39 7.3 14. annual var.1 -1.74 10.6 Trade Balance (USD bn) -41 -54 -87 -118 -104 -137 -160 -168 -188 -227 Exports (USD bn) 103 125 163 185 171 204 238 270 299 334 Imports (USD bn) 143 179 251 304 275 342 399 439 486 546 Exports (annual variation in %) 30.4 42.1 Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 15.9 -1.2 6.3 46.0 19.8 4.0 Exchange Rate (INR per USD.3 9.4 81.2 9.7 1.9 9.7 10.3 6.2 Industry (annual variation in %) 9.5 Q3 11 8.7 9.4 Q1 10 8.2 11.75 48.8 9.8 12. of BSE SENSEX in %) 42.249 GDP (USD bn) 768 871 1.6 -0.7 7.7 43.018 2.84 11.7 Jan-10 16. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (INR per USD.3 8.8 6.75 43.7 -48.12 6.4 8.0 7.6 40.6 May-10 11.50 7.5 47.7 41.7 0.7 10.7 0.6 46.118 1.0 Dec-09 17.4 8.8 -2.8 Sep-10 0.8 8.5 -3.4 7.3 45.2 7.3 46.256 1.8 5.7 9. eop) 44.3 42.7 41.9 21. average) 44.6 0.5 2.1 -1.3 1.5 9.4 8.2 12.6 -17.137 1.901 2.3 -2.5 0.4 6.9 46.6 44.38 6.4 8.6 5.3 Jun-10 5.5 46.235 1.4 5.7 7.118 1.7 Imports (annual variation in %) 37.3 5.5 Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 8.5 12.0 14.00 45.3 4.314 1.2 -9.5 Q1 11 8.1 12.9 12.5 7.8 6.2 0.7 4.9 7. in %) Inflation (WPI.9 Inflation (CPI. eop) Exchange Rate (INR per USD.8 0.7 6.195 1.7 46.5 8.9 -9.9 8.156 1.6 Mar-10 14.6 -5.25 46.57 8. annual average in %) 4. annual var.5 8.6 9.5 5.4 4. annual variation in %) 4.95 Stock Market (var.0 -6.0 51.5 -3.4 4.6 22.5 Private Consumption (annual variation in % 8.5 -2.9 39.3 -3.099 1.1 -4.4 44.5 Agriculture (annual variation in %) 5.2 1. eop) 6.5 16.6 Q2 11 8.215 1.9 6.0 6.5 9.3 -52.7 12.8 -43.277 GDP per capita (USD) 699 779 1.9 Apr-10 15.8 9.3 Inflation (WPI.3 10.9 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 37 .07 7.3 40.86 10.4 16.7 -7.6 -6.6 -3.6 9.5 External Sector Current Account (% of GDP) -1.75 46.75 7.5 8.00 5.9 8.5 0.7 6.43 10.00 42.081 1.5 4.2014/15 India November 2010 Annual Data 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Real Sector Population (million) 1.29 44.5 8.00 44.1 Q4 11 8.4 5.2 11.7 7.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005/06 .1 Q3 10 7.4 Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 23.7 13.3 -44.5 19.3 RBI Repurchase Rate (%.2 0.1 10.75 5.9 11.9 13. eop) Monthly Data Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Inflation (WPI.8 Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.6 24.8 19.1 44.6 0.2 10.36 10.3 14.3 6.3 15.21 8.2 10.0 45.5 3. annual average in %) 4.2 29.6 -2.2 10.8 -46.6 12.39 44.0 44.81 6.3 4.4 15.0 19.0 47.8 28.049 1.1 Inflation (CPI.0 13.9 5.3 Services (annual variation in %) 11.00 6.212 1.222 2.4 International Reserves (USD bn) 152 199 310 252 279 288 313 316 381 391 International Reserves (months of imports) 12.229 1.356 1.8 Current Account (USD bn) -9.60 43.

5 6.0 8.3 8. annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption.2 8. See below for details. Source: MOSPI.5 2010 2011 6.7 8.7 8.4 8. annual variation in %.5 2011/12 8.5 8.2 8.1 8. Source: MOSPI.5 8.5 8. 2010) ADB (Sep. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 38 .0 10 6. Credit Suisse Crisil Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING Financial Markets JPMorgan Kotak Securities Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank State Bank of India UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Reserve Bank of India (July 2010) IMF (Oct.5 8.0 6. 13 Central government balance.) 3 GDP.5 7. annual variation in %. 10 Industrial production.4 8.4 8.4 8.8 8.0 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 14 7. 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -10 1995 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8. 11 Industrial production. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 8. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and the Ministry of Finance.5 9.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 8 2010 2011 6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 GDP.3 8.4 8.6 8.4 8. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 GDP.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 .8 8.0 8.5 8.7 8.0 8.e.3 8. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 12 Central government balance. Source: MOSPI.0 7. Source: MOSPI. year-on-year variation in %. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 12 7.2014 | % variation 12 India November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 15 India Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 10 6 5 0 India Asia (ex Japan) World -6 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 10 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 10 9 8 8 6 7 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep 6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 12 India Asia (ex Japan) 6 | Investment | % variation 30 India Asia (ex Japan) 20 Individual Forecasts Allianz AnandRathi BofA Merrill Lynch Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9 Industrial production. % of GDP. Quarters correspond to calendar year (i.3 8. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted). 14 Central government balance.7 8. 6 Gross fixed investment.0 8. annual variation in %.3 8. 8 Gross fixed investment.5 9.7 8 10 4 0 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. Q1=Jan.3 8.2 8. 2010) 2010/11 8.5 8.4 8.7 9.5 8. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 9.-Mar.0 8.0 9.0 8.8 8.5 8. Source: Ministry of Finance. 5 Private consumption.3 8.6 8. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 8.4 8. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.1 8.4 8. Source: MOSPI.

of fcst -2 Maximum Consensus Minimum 14 | Fiscal Balance 2011 | evol.5 8.2 7.0 16.3 -4.7 -5.0 6.2 7.6 11.5 9.5 -5.0 14.8 8.0 16.8 8.4 6.3 9.6 9.0 -5.8 8.9 6.7 9.5 7.2 7.9 9.7 8.8 8.1 -4.2 8.5 -5.2 8.6 -4.9 7.9 7.9 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010/11 2011/12 -5.0 -4.5 12.6 -5.8 -5.5 8.4 -7.1 7.0 12.0 8.1 -5.9 8.0 6.0 7.0 10.8 9 | Industry | % variation 16 India Asia (ex Japan) 10 | Industry 2010 | evol.7 8.5 16.5 -4.0 11.7 8.5 16.5 16.0 7.8 12.2 7.8 6.5 9.2 8.0 11.5 -4.8 11.0 9.6 -5.9 -5.6 9.3 6.8 -5.3 6.8 7.5 8.0 6.0 7.5 7.6 11.8 -7. of forecasts 12 Maximum Consensus Minimum 11 | Industry 2011 | evol.9 6. of fcst -2 Maximum Consensus Minimum -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -6 -9 1995 2000 2005 2010 -8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 39 .2 11.4 8.2 8.6 -5.0 15.2 12.4 9.5 -5.1 -4.5 8.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010/11 2011/12 6.5 -4.0 14.1 12.0 -5.7 10.9 -4.1 -5.0 12.5 7.0 6.5 10.6 13.6 -5. of forecasts 12 Maximum Consensus Minimum 12 10 10 8 8 8 4 6 6 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 12 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 India Asia (ex Japan) World 0 13 | Fiscal Balance 2010 | evol.2 Industry % variation 2010/11 2011/12 6.3 -6.9 8.6 7.7 9.3 -4.5 5.0 6.6 10.5 7.3 -5.5 9.6 6.0 11.6 -7.5 5.1 -5.4 8.9 -7.3 6.2 12.8 -5.8 9.6 India November 2010 Individual Forecasts Allianz AnandRathi BofA Merrill Lynch Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.6 10.1 10.6 9. Credit Suisse Crisil Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING Financial Markets JPMorgan Kotak Securities Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank State Bank of India UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Investment % variation 2010/11 2011/12 12.2 9.7 8.8 8.8 -5.6 -4.4 9.4 -4.

Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.0 6. the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and the Labour Bureau.1 7.5 2011/12 4. 2010) 2010/11 6.2 8.-Mar. Source: Labour Bureau.0 7. See below for details.2 7.4 5.5 5. avg.3 6. Source: RBI.5 5.5 5.9 7.) 16 Quarterly inflation.4 5. 20 Money.5 9 20 6 10 3 0 1995 2000 2005 0 1995 2000 2005 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.0 4. 21 | 10-Year Bond | in % 10 22 | Stock Market | BSE SENSEX 25. 19 Consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW).6 5. annual variation of M1 in %. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 6.0 7.9 8.2 8.9 8.4 8. 17 Inflation.3 8.000 6 10. 22 Daily index levels. Money. in %. Jan.1 8.4 8. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 . BSE SENSEX. 21 10-Year bond yield in %. RBI inflation forecast refers to year-on-year wholesale inflation. All monetary sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) .2014 | in % 12 India Asia (ex Japan) 9 10 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 15 Inflation | ann.e. variation of wholesale price index in % 6 5 3 0 India Asia (ex Japan) 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 10 Maximum Consensus Minimum 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | CPI-IW | % variation 12 20 | Money | % variation 30 Individual Forecasts Allianz AnandRathi BofA Merrill Lynch Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. average variation in wholesale price index (WPI) in %. annual average variation in wholesale price index (WPI) in %. Quarters correspond to calendar year (i.FOCUSECONOMICS India November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.5 6. Source: RBI.000 20.5 5.5 5. Q1=Jan.5 5.4 5.5 8. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Jan. Source: Bombay Stock Exchange. 18 Inflation.000 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5.6 5. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.2 6. 2005 until end of previous month.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 40 . 2008 until end of previous month.9 8. Credit Suisse Crisil Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING Financial Markets JPMorgan Kotak Securities Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank State Bank of India UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Reserve Bank of India (July 2010) ADB (Sep. 15 Inflation.000 8 15. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

FOCUSECONOMICS
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in %
14

India

November 2010

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in %
10

Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
Interest Rate Exchange Rate % INR per USD Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 Allianz 44.5 44.0 AnandRathi 5.50 7.00 42.0 40.0 BofA Merrill Lynch 6.50 7.50 43.5 Capital Economics 6.50 6.50 44.0 42.0 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 45.5 43.5 Credit Suisse 43.5 42.0 Crisil 43.8 Daiwa Capital Markets 45.0 43.3 DBS Bank 6.50 43.5 Deutsche Bank 6.75 44.0 42.0 Goldman Sachs 43.4 43.0 HSBC 6.25 7.50 45.5 43.5 ING Financial Markets 6.50 7.00 43.5 42.0 JPMorgan 6.50 44.5 Kotak Securities 6.50 7.00 45.5 45.0 Morgan Stanley 45.4 42.2 RBC Capital Markets 6.25 7.00 44.0 42.0 Standard Chartered Bank 6.50 44.0 State Bank of India 44.0 UBS 46.5 41.0 Summary Minimum 5.50 6.50 42.0 40.0 Maximum 6.75 7.50 46.5 45.0 Median 6.50 7.00 44.0 42.1 Consensus 6.39 7.07 44.3 42.5 History 30 days ago 6.36 7.04 44.7 42.6 60 days ago 6.33 7.16 44.2 42.3 90 days ago 6.30 7.16 43.9 42.1

12 8 10

8 6 6

4 1995 2000 2005 2010

4 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst
8

26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst
10 Maximum Consensus Minimum

6

8

4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

6

4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

27 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD
60

28 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD
55

50 50 45 40 40

Notes and sources
30 1995 2000 2005 2010 35 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

29 | INR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst
60 Maximum Consensus Minimum 50

30 | INR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
50 Maximum Consensus Minimum

General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop). Source: RBI. 24 Quarterly interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop). Source: RBI. 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 27 Exchange rate, INR per USD (eop). Source: RBI. 28 Quarterly exchange rate, INR per USD (eop). Source: RBI. 29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months. 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: RBI. 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Department of Commerce. 33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: RBI. 34 Current account in USD billion, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Deparment of Commerce. 36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: RBI.

45

40

40

30 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

35 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 41

FOCUSECONOMICS

India

November 2010

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves
Current Account USD bn 2010/11 2011/12 -26.0 -37.0 -33.6 -17.8 -47.0 -53.2 -49.0 -59.7 -53.4 -34.5 -47.7 -47.5 -45.5 -35.0 -63.0 -40.4 -48.9 -48.6 -63.1 -73.7 -38.0 -43.5 -52.5 -60.7 -58.0 -65.7 -45.4 -43.7 -24.3 -22.8 -46.0 -32.4 -46.0 -45.4 -62.0 -63.1 -24.3 -46.0 -44.6 -43.3 -42.1 -41.3 -73.7 -17.8 -47.2 -47.8 -47.6 -45.5 -46.4 Trade Balance USD bn 2010/11 2011/12 -113 -113 -145 -170 -144 -159 -135 -141 -142 -139 -153 -140 -193 -126 -142 -143 -165 -133 -163 -146 -181 -150 -183 -131 -154 -130 -132 -165 -150 -113 -139 -137 -135 -133 -133 -193 -113 -163 -160 -161 -157 -157 Exports USD bn 2010/11 2011/12 186 233 212 235 209 251 202 247 209 214 246 214 250 179 197 212 237 194 229 226 267 208 237 189 204 227 179 226 209 204 206 205 205 197 267 237 238 245 243 243 Imports USD bn 2010/11 2011/12 298 346 357 405 353 410 337 387 351 353 399 354 443 305 339 354 402 327 392 372 449 358 420 325 336 392 298 372 352 342 341 338 338 339 449 401 399 406 401 400 Int. Reserves USD bn 2010/11 2011/12 265 275 311 373 299 261 264 315 364 275 291 290 350 293 299 253 248 310 350 274 321 330 272 305 253 330 290 288 291 294 294 248 373 305 313 316 321 320

Individual Forecasts Allianz AnandRathi BofA Merrill Lynch Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse Crisil Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING Financial Markets JPMorgan Kotak Securities Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank State Bank of India UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago

31 | Current Account | % of GDP
10 India Asia (ex Japan)

32 | Trade Balance | USD billion
600 Trade Balance Exports Imports

33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
20

400 5 200

15

10 0 0 -200 5 India Asia (ex Japan) 0 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010

-5 1995 2000 2005 2010

-400 1995

34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
-10

35 | Exports | annual variation in %
40

36 | External Debt | % of GDP
60

-20

20
-30

40

0
-40 2010 2011 -50 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

20 India Asia (ex Japan) 0 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010

-20 1995

India Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 42

FOCUSECONOMICS
Fact Sheet
General Data Official name: Capital: Other cities:

India

November 2010

India in the Region
Population | %-share in Asia
Korea 2%

Republic of India New Delhi (13.8 m) Greater Mumbai (16.4 m) Kolkata (13.2 m) Bangalura (5.7m) Area (km2): 3,166,414 Population (million, 2009): 1,156 Population density (per km2, 2009): 365.1 Population growth rate (%, 2009): 1.4 Life expectancy (years, 2009): 66.1 Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 39.0 Language: Hindi, English and 21 other official languages Measures: Metric system Calendar: Year begins on 21 or 22 March of Gregorian calendar Time: 5:30 hours ahead of GMT Economic Infrastructure

GDP | %-share in Asia

Other 10%

Korea 10% Indonesia 6% China 43% India 15%

Other 16%

Indonesia 7%

India 38%

China 53%

Economic Structure
GDP by Sector | share in %
100% 2005/06
18.1

Telecommunication (2009) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons):

3.1 43.8 5.1 0.7

GDP by Expenditure | share in %
100%

2009/10
14.6 Agriculture, forestry and fishing

75%
Manufacturing 16.1

75%

15.3

50%
Trade, hotels, transport and communication

13,048 19,094 762 568 881 2,845 1,386

50%

25.1

26.5

25%
Financing, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services

15.1

17.2

0%

25%
13.7 13.1

-25%
Other

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

12.6

12.3

0%

Private Consumption Investment

Government Consumption Net exports

Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports:

349 64,015 3,320,410 14,500 Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata

Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
USA 13% EU-27 21% EU-27 17% Japan 3%

USA 7%

Political Data

Prime Minister: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank Governor:
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Manmohan Singh 19 July 2007 July 2012 Duvvuri Subbarao

Other 36%

Exports
Japan 3% China 15% Other 44%

Imports

China 15%

Other Asia 12%

Other Asia 14%

Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings:

Rating Baa3 BBBBBB-

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

Primary products | share in %
Precious or semiprecio us stones 15% Mineral fuels and oils 15% Electrical machinery and equipment Nuclear 5% reactors and machinery 4%

Others 30%

Mineral fuels and oils 35%

Strengths

Weaknesses

Exports
Others 61%

Imports
Fertilisers 4% Electrical machinery and Nuclear equipment reactors and 8% machinery 9% Precious or semipreciou s stones 14%

• Huge domestic market

• Excessive bureaucracy

• Skilled labour force in key • Protectionist trade policy industries, particularly software • Weak infrastructure development • Electricity/energy shortages • High catch-up growth potential • Low inflationary environment

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 43

0%. Moreover. Inflation fell to 5.2% over the same month the previous year according to Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey (RSS).0 3.FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia November 2010 Indonesia Indonesia Outlook stable • Recent data are showing mixed signals but. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 211 199 940 4.4 7.5 71.3 5.9% annually (July: 85.2% this year.3 2010-14 240 844 3.0% this year. adding 109.8% this year and 5.0 0.9 8. up from the 24. the panel expects the economy to grow 6. Consequently. continue to point towards sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. Next year.2%. sales for food and tobacco led the development by expanding an annual 26. Contrasting the strong developments in retail sales. the robust domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.7 Owing to the strong August reading.6 -0. easing for the first time in six months. growth remains strong in the third quarter In August. real retail sales soared 31.5 Industrial Production | variation in % 6. Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations. on balance. in August industrial production added only 2.5% in July to 3.0 % 2. However. Moreover. the panel sees inflation averaging 6.4% recorded in July.3 -1.7% expansion observed in July.5 0.6 37.0% for the rest of the year and average 5. Moreover. Yet. the panel anticipates the economy to expand 6.0 3.6% in August. -2.5% next year.1%.1 2005-09 226 410 1.1 percentage points above last month’s forecast.0% year-on-year).4 3.6 22. which unchanged over the previous month’s projection.8 4. which is 0.507 6.7 4. all which bodes very well for private consumption in the coming months.9 1. Moreover.1 5.4%. the panel anticipates inflation will hover around 6. despite the deceleration.6 -2.5 3.2 YoY Aug Sep YoY Annual Average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 3. annual average growth in real retail sales rose from 26.0% in July to 28. Consensus Forecasts panellists see industrial production growing 4. Next year. which came in below the 3. rising from 3. The reading marked an improvement over the 24.2%. took place a few weeks earlier than last year.8 4.0 Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.5%.9 3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 44 . the panel expects GDP to grow 6. 2.0 4. in fact. The acceleration over the previous month was boosted by the fact that holy month of Ramadan.7 0.810 5.1 5.2 • • Gerardo Morán Senior Economist REAL SECTOR | Despite mixed signals.0 -0.8% in September.6% expansion recorded in July and represented. Next year. retailers remain confident that sales will continue rising in the coming months. annual average growth in industrial production continued to trend upwards. according to the RSS. the thirteenth month of double-digit growth rates. Consensus Forecast panellists left their forecast for this year unchanged over the previous month and anticipate the economy to grow 6. clothing sales also rose sharply. during which Muslims usually spend more on food products and gifts.5% over the same month last year.

falling from 6.16 -0.5 1.8% in September.5 0. at its most recent meeting on 5 October the Central Bank left the benchmark rate unchanged for the fourteenth consecutive month at a record-low of 6.0 % 0.0 6. Against this backdrop. as monetary authorities have stated their preference to use other monetary variables. September’s figure was primarily driven by higher prices for clothing as well as non-prepared food. annual inflation eased for the first time in six months.44% over the previous month.0 Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.0 0. The Central Bank has an inflation target of 5% ±1% for both this and next year.9% year-on-year). The decision was broadly expected by the market.0 -0.15 0.2% this year. Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS).19 0.33 0. the Central Bank raised the reserve ratio for commercial banks from 5.0 Monthly (left scale) 1.97 0. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 5.76% price increase tallied in August and undershot market expectations.50%. which is up 0. For next year.58%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 45 .5 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2. in particular the first raise in electricity tariffs in seven years.0%. Meanwhile.0 % Annual (right scale) 1. The deceleration over the previous month reflected one-off developments that took place in August.05 1.2% (August: 3. which had seen prices rising 0. In September.4% in August to 5. panellists see inflation rising to an average of 6. consumer prices rose 0.57 8.84 0.0% to 8.29 0. Meanwhile. Inflation | Consumer Price Index 2. as the government cut subsidies. annual average inflation accelerated slightly to 4.31 0.44 4. As a result of the relatively subdued monthly reading.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia November 2010 MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases for the first time in six months In September. The figure nearly halved the 0.76 0.03 -0.1%.

31 3.184 1.2 8.1 32.7 7.8 8.1 10.7 35.0 13. var.729 Dec-09 3.6 4.9 Q2 10 6. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.5 3.3 6.2 5.72 8.3 36.4 7.1 0.8 Q4 10 6.44 5.4 16.0 -0. annual variation in %) BI Rate (%.3 4.5 0.990 2013 243 3. annual average variation in %) Inflation (WPI. annual average variation in %) BI Rate (%.382 2008 229 2.7 24.0 5.2 4.917 10.4 56.9 7.4 9.5 7.205 9. in %) Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.9 -1.5 31.5 4.5 -1.7 -0.015 2010 234 2.6 35.2 6.6 33.7 3.8 184 21.4 11.8 9.2 34.833 932 6.2 80.6 6.2 27.8 5.0 4.6 8. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.25 -50.4 205 171 12.6 11.7 9.9 8.4 9.4 -27.57 6.5 32.9 51.23 8.0 6.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .53 8.37 8.50 9.9 4.3 -1.7 99.9 0.7 3.50 8.0 -0.1 7.6 223 194 9.382 9.7 10.6 7.4 Q4 09 5.8 Q3 11 6.9 5.5 4.888 8. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP. eop) Monthly Data Industrial Production (s.6 6.1 0.3 10.236 272 5.0 -0.0 5. in %) Private Consumption (ann.0 9.5 28.4 10.2 146 116 23.8 29.1 4.0 9.6 5.031 6.1 9.00 52.1 9.9 9.72 8. var.6 1.6 6.888 Sep-10 0.0 28.a.040 2014 246 4. in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.4 36. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.6 0.0 0.7 5.4 169 25.4 8.36 8. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (IDR per USD.180 2011 237 3.33 2.930 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 46 .2 Q3 10 6.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.6 10.2 9.5 Q3 09 4.1 9.891 Aug-10 2.15 3.794 654 6.7 4.2 9.412 Indonesia November 2010 2007 226 1.1 5.6 7.7 6.5 9.4 2.8 6.7 0.9 173 22.50 9.2 6.3 2.7 7.930 Apr-10 3.447 Jan-10 5.6 7.4 202 19.8 26.151 9.1 17. annual var.0 10.97 5.7 7.76 6.6 5. in %) Inflation (CPI.642 2.3 11.8 Q1 11 6.055 10.4 5.2 7.1 6.1 6.9 164 135 12.5 16.4 9.127 486 6.4 30.900 0.7 8. eop) 2005 220 1.9 11.3 2.4 173 32.0 141 34.3 9.3 2.5 34.447 10.095 0.7 6.9 15.938 Jun-10 5.0 0.0 194 20.1 183 151 11.2 9.2 -0.3 42.0 24.460 2.5 5.0 15.1 7.6 6.5 87 69 22.5 Q1 10 5.6 -0.1 8.6 6.9 3.7 9.52 9.50 9.8 8.93 8.0 3.7 66.2 6.0 134 49.2 5.9 5.070 2012 240 3.6 2.8 25.9 5.16 3.320 537 4.4 6.6 13.1 -1.8 5.9 37.3 6.070 Mar-10 3.156 9.8 7.4 97.188 0.9 140 117 18.207 0.188 1.1 6.7 104 74 19.7 88. mom var.50 87.910 Jul-10 3.178 0. eop) Exchange Rate (IDR per USD.1 119 84 -14.3 2. annual var.936 0.1 4.8 4.3 5.0 40.75 55.1 13.913 May-10 4.2 6.110 2009 231 2.2 -1.3 40.3 0.3 10.9 133 38.37 8.110 Feb-10 4.447 2006 223 1.6 Q4 11 6.0 13.5 28.8 118 85 14.5 11.3 12.913 9.1 7.522 846 6.2 2.196 758 6.29 4.64 9.84 3.8 Q2 11 6.6 10.8 6.984 8.6 10. in %) Fixed Investment (ann. in %) Government Consumption (ann.1 7.0 6.4 4.5 5.2 0.9 9. eop) Stock Market (variation of IDX in %) Exchange Rate (IDR per USD.1 22.3 155 31. eop) Exchange Rate (IDR per USD.8 7.1 10.1 6.3 17.2 103 6. var.551 345 5.816 410 6.8 9.668 3.1 26.75 16.9 9.6 11.1 13.50 9.

0 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.2 6. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets Danareksa Securities DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Mandiri Sekuritas Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Aug. 1 GDP. 7 Private consumption.4 6. 5 Private consumption.4 6.5 6. annual variation in %.4 6.5 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 12 10 5.5 6. Source: BPS.3 5 0 0 -15 Notes and sources -5 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 -45 1995 -30 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 .1 6. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.2 6. 9 Industrial production. 11 Balance of central government.0 6.6 6. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 6.2 6.5 6.0 6. 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 5. annual variation in %.3 5. annual variation in %.4 6.4 5. See below for details. Source: BPS. 2010) ADB (Sep.9 6. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.0 6. All real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central Bank (BI.1 6.2 5. Bank Indonesia).3 6.5 6. 12 Industrial production. 3 GDP.5 6 2010 4.8 6. Source: BPS.1 6. Source: BI.0 6.1 6. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 6. annual variation in %. year-on-year variation in %.1 5.0 5.4 6.5 6.9 6.9 5. 8 Gross fixed investment.0 5. 4 GDP.3 6.2 6.2 6.5 6. % of active population. 13 Unemployment.0-6.1 6.5 6.8 6.1 2011 6.0 6.0 6.3 6. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2011 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2010 2011 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 47 .0 8 4. Source: BPS.0 5.0 5. 14 Balance of central government.8 6. 10 Unemployment. Source: BPS.0 5.1 6.2 6. 2010) 2010 5. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 6 Gross fixed investment.0 6.2014 | % variation 10 Indonesia November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 15 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 10 0 5 -10 0 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) World 2000 2005 2010 -20 1995 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 7 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 7 6 6 5 5 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 15 6 | Investment | % variation 30 10 15 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank Danamon Indonesia BII Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Source: BPS.0 6.5 6. % of GDP. 2010) IMF (Oct. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.2 6. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted).0 6.

2 5.4 9 | Industry | % variation 20 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.8 4.4 7.7 -2.0 5.0 -1.3 Indonesia November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank Danamon Indonesia BII Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 7.4 7.7 6.5 -2.2 9.0 5.7 9.3 5.3 11.2 5.3 -1.0 5.6 -1.2 -1.8 5.8 8.7 9.0 5.2 7.8 6.0 9.3 -0.8 7.8 12.6 7.8 4.2 5. 12 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 10 9 0 0 6 -3 -10 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 3 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -6 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) World -9 1995 2000 2005 2010 -20 1995 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 6 2010 2011 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 10 2010 2011 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -0.9 4.3 5.7 -1.1 -1.8 8.6 -0.0 -2.7 8.3 5.6 -2.7 6.0 -1.6 5.3 10.5 -2.6 Industry % variation 2010 2011 4.7 8.5 6.5 7.1 5.4 11.7 4.0 7.7 6.9 5.1 5.0 8.9 7.8 5.0 5.4 7.8 4.6 -1.2 7.4 4.4 9.5 -2.3 5.5 7.2 -1.0 7.5 7.4 5.8 4.2 -1.9 4.6 -1.6 4.2 -1. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets Danareksa Securities DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Mandiri Sekuritas Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Investment % variation 2010 2011 10.0 10.7 4.8 8.0 -1.8 -0.3 -1.7 10.2 -2.2 6.0 -0.5 8.0 4.3 8.9 10.0 12.5 -1.1 5.5 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -1.8 9.7 8.0 -1.3 -1.3 5.8 8.2 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 Unemployment % of active pop.4 8.7 10.4 7.9 7.2 7.2 7. 2010 2011 7.9 4.1 -1.7 -1.3 5.5 -2.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010 2011 4.7 7.0 11.5 7.0 10.0 8.3 4.0 7.0 5.2 5.4 5.8 8.4 8.6 -1.2 4.2 -0.5 5.1 5.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -1.0 6.7 8.0 8.9 4.9 9.0 8.3 -1.7 4.7 5.8 5.3 5.2 5.2 7.0 7.5 5.7 5.8 2010 2011 5 9 -1.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 48 .0 -2.8 7.7 6.2 8.0 11.3 4.5 8.0 4.4 5.0 -1.0 4.0 5.2 5.5 5.0 6.7 -1.0 9.2 4 8 -1.6 -1.0 5.6 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 7 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -2.3 4.7 9.4 -1.0 6.7 8.8 5.6 10.8 7.2 -1.

9 5. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 .000 600 2.0 5.5 5.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 49 .500 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.9 5.2 6.7 6. 15 Inflation. of consumer price index in % 30 5 15 0 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 10 Maximum Consensus Minimum 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 12 Maximum Consensus Minimum 8 9 6 6 4 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Producer Prices | % var. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 30 20 | Money | % variation 40 30 20 20 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank Danamon Indonesia BII Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 1995-2009.0 5.1 5.000 400 1. 800 3.7 5.7 5.1 7.1 5.8-6. var.8 4. 2000-2009.1 5.500 200 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1.9 5. All real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central Bank (BI.7 4.3 5.9 6. 2010) 2010 5. 21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. 20 Money.0 5.000 22 | Stock Market | IDX 4. Source: Indonesia Stock Exchange.0 6. 18 Inflation. 2008 until end of previous month. 16 Quarterly inflation.0 5.1 5. From Jan. IDX. year-on-year variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 5.2 5. 2010) IMF (Oct.000 3.7 7. 17 Inflation. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.5 6.1 5.0 6.8 6.4 5. 2008 until end of previous month. Bank Indonesia). Source: BI.1 4.7 10 10 0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 -10 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources 21 | MSCI Price Index 1.8 5.1 6. annual variation in % (eop).0 6.500 2.5 6. annual variation of M1 in %.0 4.0 4. Source: BPS. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: BPS.2 2011 5. Source: MSCI Barra.2014 | in % 60 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 45 10 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 15 Inflation | annual avg.0 4.5 5.2 5. Money.8 7.9 5.1 5. 22 Daily index levels. 2010) ADB (Sep. 19 Producer price index.7 4. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets Danareksa Securities DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Mandiri Sekuritas Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Aug.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5. See below for details.FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation. From Jan.3 5. Source: BPS.0 6.0 6.

00 7. IDR per USD (eop). 35 Exports. 34 Current account in USD bn.000 9.950 9. Bank Indonesia).50 7.900 8.50 6. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets Danareksa Securities DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Mandiri Sekuritas Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 9.800 8.000 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 29 | IDR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 14.81 6.075 9.843 8.8.50 8.000 9.50 6.50 8.50 6.50 8.083 7.400 6. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 10 8 8 6 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 6 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 27 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD 12.214 9.500 7.600 6.94 6.25 9.75 8.250 8.000 .000 11.000 Notes and sources 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 8.8. imports and exports.000 10.916 8.750 8. Source: BPS.700 9.50 7.250 8.25 9.927 9.2014 | in % 50 Indonesia November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 10 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % IDR per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 6.700 9.750 8.75 9.900 6.000 3.25 8.000 10.00 8.700 8.900 8. Source: BI.00 7.50 9.900 9.150 9.00 8. Source: BI.8.500 6.48 7. 32 Trade balance.500 8.900 6.800 8.900 8.8.913 8.93 6. 28 Quarterly exchange rate.50 7. See below for details.000 Maximum Consensus Minimum General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. 36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: BPS.972 8.000 6.900 8.75 9.500 7. All real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central Bank (BI.100 6. Source: BI.000 28 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD 12.016 40 9 30 8 20 7 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 6 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int.75 . BI Rate in % (eop).000 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank Danamon Indonesia BII Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 26 Interest rate.000 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 50 . BI Rate in % (eop).700 6.400 9. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.000 10.900 6. Source: BPS.00 8.00 8.355 6.000 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 | IDR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 11. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .50 7.75 6.50 6.989 9.50 8.800 8. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. months of imports. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 25 Interest rate.500 6. IDR per USD (eop). 27 Exchange rate.50 .52 8.150 6.55 7.00 7. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months. 33 International reserves. in USD bn. Source: BI.8.72 6.951 9. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 10 26 | Int.37 7. annual variation in %.50 8.50 .598 7.75 7. 23 Interest rate.50 7.75 7.888 8.000 9.650 .50 8.50 7.000 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 8.75 7. Source: BI. Source: BI.950 6. 24 Quarterly interest rate. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.000 8. 30 Exchange rate. 12.345 6.200 7. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP..50 8. 29 Exchange rate.50 7.032 8.

1 7.9 28.5 5.2 17.2 30.7 29.7 14.1 29.9 29.1 65.0 2.8 30.8 80.4 7.6 80.1 17.2 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 149 166 152 166 146 166 143 160 152 174 136 159 145 154 149 172 141 163 148 177 146 160 146 156 136 152 146 146 142 140 140 154 177 164 164 160 157 157 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 112 130 138 155 116 140 109 125 121 145 103 125 110 119 116 143 115 135 118 148 128 145 106 115 103 138 115 116 112 110 109 115 155 137 135 131 128 127 Int.6 78.2 4.9 15.4 4.3 95.2 7.0 7.7 75.3 35. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets Danareksa Securities DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Mandiri Sekuritas Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 9 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 6 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 250 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.6 35.6 90.0 4.1 40.7 7.1 35.0 40.2 76.2 81. of fcst 12 2010 2011 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 30 36 | External Debt | % of GDP 200 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 15 8 150 0 4 100 -15 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 50 -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 51 .0 83.0 3.6 11.6 5.3 -0.9 26.1 7.3 34.7 3.2 -0.7 32. Reserves | months of imports 25 Indonesia Asia (ex Japan) 200 20 3 150 15 0 100 10 -3 50 5 -6 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 34 | Current Account | evol.0 88.2 108.9 77.4 90.6 13.6 90.0 88.0 29.0 5.FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.7 31.0 7.2 85.0 83.4 9.2 Individual Forecasts ANZ Bank Danamon Indonesia BII Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 7.4 4.0 7.2 30.1 9.7 85.7 85.0 29.7 73.0 73.0 80.4 7.0 93.1 7.5 2.0 3. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 7.9 4.3 35.6 9.0 82.5 96.3 13.5 65.7 4.3 83.2 33.7 11.3 7.0 31.6 27.1 8.8 78.3 108.0 40.0 28.6 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 36.0 81.1 86.6 30.7 10. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 88.9 83.6 5.2 29.0 6.7 6.0 87.2 90.1 30.6 80.3 5.0 17.8 77.7 11.0 25.6 73.1 5.5 89.5 7.1 1.1 29.5 11.4 34.3 0.0 83.5 30.6 28.0 90.6 6.7 14.9 3.0 6.7 40.

2 GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 2009 13.2 Manufacturing Industry 25% 0% 15. 2009 est.7 m) Surabaya (3.7 GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 15.): Illiteracy rate (%.7 0.8 9.) Population growth rate (%. Real Rstate & Business Services Trade Hotel & Restaurants Agriculture 75% 10.243 402 50% 16.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.930 4.043 1.529 437.9 m) Medan (3.3 16.6 Transport & Communication Finance.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 14.3 m) Bandung (5.6 5. 2000): Language: Measures: Time: Republic of Indonesia Jakarta (12.9 m) 1.6 Bahasa Indonesia Metric system 7 hours ahead of GMT Population | %-share in Asia Malaysia 1% Korea 2% Other 9% GDP | %-share in Asia Malaysia 2% Korea 10% Other 14% China 43% India 15% India 38% Indonesia 6% China 53% Indonesia 7% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .579 Banjarmasin.8 69.3 8.759 21.): Life expectancy (years. 2009 est.4 8.8 9.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .9 Mining and Quarring 75% 50% 10.0 26.6 8. Jakarta Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 12% USA 10% Japan 19% EU-27 7% USA 5% Other 20% Japan 10% Political Data President: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank Governor: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono 8 July 2009 2014 Darmin Nasution China 15% Other 18% Exports China 10% Imports Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Other Asia 31% Other Asia 43% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating Ba2 BB BB+ Outlook Positive Positive Stable Primary products | share in % Manufacturing 63% Oil and Gas 16% Capital Goods 21% Consumer Goods 7% Strengths Weaknesses Exports Agriculture 4% Imports • Extensive natural resources • Large domestic market • Diverse manufacturing sector • Widespread corruption deters foreign investment • Weak legal framework • Guerilla activity poses security threat Mining & Other 17% Raw Materials and Others 72% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 52 .3 8.2 70. 2009 est.887 134 119 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Indonesia November 2010 Indonesia in the Region Official name: Capital: Other cities: Area (km2): Population (million.): Population density (per km2.440 231 121 1.9 25% 28. 2009 est.7 Other 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 2009 0% Government Consumption Net exports 683 8.5 16.919.

The figure was up from the 15.38 3.0 -4.1% year-on-year).0% in 2011.1 25.04 1.0 -1.5 35.2%.544 4.1 1.0 1. For 2011.22 0.6% in September.0 % 0.2 2. as the three main industrial sectors improved compared to the previous month.97 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1.5% increase recorded in July and came in above market expectations of a 16.3% fall recorded in July and.0% this year.9% increase observed in July.04% over the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. which is also unchanged compared to last month’s forecast.29 -2.77 2. which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.2 2005-09 48.4 1.4 922 19. finally.0 -10. panellists expect growth to moderate to 4. marking the second consecutive drop in consumer sentiment.6 0.0%.8 3.0 Note: Seasonally adjusted month-on-month and annual average changes of industrial production index in %. For next year.4% rise. electricity and gas supply grew 11. However.0 2010-14 49.2%. Panellists expect inflation to average 2. the mining sector rose 0. Consensus Forecast participants left their estimates for full year 2010 GDP growth unchanged at the current 6.87 0.25%. which accounts for the bulk of industrial output.9% this year which is up 0. Nevertheless. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 53 .15 4. Meanwhile.3%. surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates.4% annually.00 0.0 4. consumer confidence continues to slide.3 0.0 1. A month-on-month comparison.1% (July: +9.515 5. however. the Consumer Survey Index (CSI) published by the Bank of Korea inched down from 110 points in August to 109 points. does not corroborate the improvement suggested by the annual figures.6 596 12. The improvement over the previous month was broad-based. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations.40 2. at the current level consumer confidence remains above the 100-point threshold that separates Industrial Production | variation in % 8.71 1.a. Manufacturing. which was up from the 15. monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at 2.05% increase recorded in July.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast and to rise to 3.6 33. as industrial production fell 1. (left scale) Annual Average (right scale) 20.0% next year. which contrasted the 1.6% in August to 3. Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial production to expand 16.4 3.1% over the same month last year. Inflation jumped from 2.05 % 10.256 25.0 -1.2 3.57 1. suggesting weaker private consumption in the months ahead.187 3. increased 17. industrial production rose 17.5 • • Armando Ciccarelli Senior Economist REAL SECTOR | Industrial production growth steps up In August. OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence marks second consecutive drop in September In September.FOCUSECONOMICS Korea November 2010 Korea Korea Outlook stable • Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing industrial activity. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 47.6% this year and 8. Moreover. contrasting the 3. Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to grow 6. panellists expect the economy to expand 4.0 MoM s.

0 Monthly (left scale) 1. with the component relative to the domestic economy marking the sharpest drop.9% in 2010.17 1.35 0.35% increase recorded in August and came in well above market expectations of a 0. monetary authorities acknowledge the presence of external risks.26 -0.8% in August to 1. which excludes more volatile items such as fresh food and energy. the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2. while expectations about households’ living standards in the next six months remained stable. annual inflation stepped up one full percentage point.4% for an ninth consecutive month. added a more subdued 0.26% over the previous month. prices for fresh food increased 19. annual core inflation inched up from 1. as the Central Bank continued to refer to an accommodative policy going forward.55% over the previous month. In its monetary policy statement. According to the panel. As a consequence. As a result of the monthly increase. price index in %. Director of the Economic Policy Bureau of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance.0 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. despite the reference to “price stability” preceding that to “economic growth”. thus exceeding the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3.0% in 2011. surprising market analysts which had expected monetary authorities would raise interest rates by 25 basis points. stated that rising food prices in September were caused by bad weather conditions in the previous month and that prices should ease going forward. Source: Bank of Korea (BoK). MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation soars on food prices in September In September.18 0. Moreover.0 -0.5 4. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations. average inflation will inch up to 3. leading to demandpull price pressures.0 percentage points.33% increase. The main drivers behind the monthly price rise were higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.0 -0. which is the basis of the Central Bank’s monetary policy.35 0.09 0. eop. Finally.9% in September. Households’ assessment regarding their living standards as well as the situation of the domestic economy deteriorated compared to the previous month. Source: Bank of Korea (BoK).0 Annual (right scale) 1.35 0. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 54 . suggesting that consumption should continue to support economic growth in the coming months. monetary authorities once again conveyed a mixed message in their statement.5 % 0. thus suggesting a shift in priorities.0% but remaining within the tolerance range of ±1.5 Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of cons.35 0.1 percentage points over last month’s projection. However. Core inflation. monetary authorities are concerned about the appreciating trend in the national currency.6%. 4.52 0. leading to the decision of maintaining interest rates unchanged. which jumped a sizable 6. the Central Bank foresees a continued pickup in domestic economic activity in the months to come. An index value above 100 indicates an optimistic outlook while a value below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook. as global economic activity remains volatile.35 0.25%. In particular. Yoon Jong-Won.0 0.0 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Note: BoK Base Rate in %. Inflation | Consumer Price Index 1. That said. which is down 0. consumer prices rose 1.09 0. MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged 110 Points 100 90 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Note: Consumer Survey Index (CSI). the six-month outlook on the general economy situation deteriorated compared to August. remained stable at 3.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0. Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to average 2.6% in August to 3. from 2. The reading almost tripled the 0.5% over August. The three-year average inflation rate.12 3.0 2. Monetary Policy Rate | in % 6.0 At the most recent monetary policy meeting on 14 October. which is up 0.12% over the previous month.35 % 2.FOCUSECONOMICS Consumer Confidence 120 Korea November 2010 optimism from pessimism for the 17th consecutive month.

In 2011. the September rise was driven by strong increases in exports of semiconductors.9% in 2011. reaching USD 35. imports increased 17. Source: Korea Customs Services (KCS). 0 -10 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Note: Monthly exports.FOCUSECONOMICS Korea November 2010 As a consequence of the continued dovish position of the Central Bank. and by a 28. confirming the strength of the external sector.1% annual rise in exports of petroleum products.59%.3% this year and 9. according to the latest data released by Korea Customs Services (KCS).1% expansion (previously reported: +27.5% year-on-year in September (August: +28. market analysts are now more inclined to believe that the Central Bank will not raise interest rate before the end of the year.7%) recorded in August.29%. the monthly figure marked the 11th consecutive double-digit increase in exports.5% over the same month last year to reach USD 39. imports and trade balance in USD billion. As a result of the monthly figures. Consensus Forecast panellists expect interest rates to close the year at an average of 2.8 billion in August to USD 4. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports will expand 22. Nonetheless. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 55 . which surged 50. according to KCS figures.0 billion. the panel anticipates monetary authorities to raise rates to an average of 3. EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus widens in September Merchandise Trade | USD bn 50 Trade Balance 40 Exports Imports 30 20 10 In September.6% yoy). the trade surplus rose from USD 1.5 billion in September. According to the Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE). The figure came in below the 28.5 billion. exports rose 16.6% over the previous year. Meanwhile.

4 3.2 2.25 1.4 3.260 1.1 660 628 8.2 423 30.0 3.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.6 -5.00 1.6 5.5 2.3 0.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .4 3.6 2.7 8.7 1. in %) Inflation (Core.012 1.9 111 102. Confid.3 0.049 1.222 Mar-10 22.76 1.8 2.3 6.0 2.5 11.024 1.091 Jul-10 15.3 607 578 9.5 Q4 11 4.3 23.8 7.652 1.7 270 10.35 3.9 4.160 2008 48.7 1.720 1.8 2.1 0.1 110 116.8 1.1 6.00 1.9 6.6 290 8.9 409 35.7 56.5 3.35 2. Index (100-point threshold) Inflation (CPI.1 0.6 2.2 402 48.1 3.0 113 103.8 6.6 1.1 3.955 1.0 3.036 1.3 3.861 833 0. annual var.8 2.35 2.7 409 7.030 1.1 42. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.59 1.165 2006 48.2 21.5 0.6 3.8 15.1 28.1 2.105 May-10 21.3 399 39.0 32.0 3.3 -1.3 19.1 25.2 0.077 1.3 3.178 Dec-09 34.6 5.6 5. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (KRW per USD. eop Exchange Rate (KRW per USD.1 374 317 -13.3 1.8 1.7 3.102 -0.4 0.51 1.4 8.7 410 32.165 1.35 2.0 3.7 1.5 113 105. eop) 2005 48.2 4.5 3.6 19.1 4.0 3.3 2.0 4.0 930 955 0.9 3.52 2.2 32.4 35.8 3.9 20.8 2. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.049 5. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.2 1.5 -1.803 1.6 4.162 Korea November 2010 2007 48.5 -14.3 4.0 16.7 17.1 0.1 502 474 9.1 17.8 2.3 32.275 4.2 3.2 4.6 340 7.5 3. annual average var.0 7.6 1.8 5.5 4.9 26.0 7.049 Sep-10 3.9 0.7 1. eop) Monthly Data Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.9 332 304 14. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.17 2.146 4.189 2014 49.2 3.0 4.1 1.140 Apr-10 20.0 2. eop) Exchange Rate (KRW per USD.1 0.1 3.106 Jun-10 17.3 1.108 2010 48.99 32.0 3.35 2.7 112 107.3 1.0 23.0 3.2 2.162 931 2.4 262 9.8 434 29.200 2011 49.6 2.472 4.4 2.09 2. annual average var.5 112 108.137 2. in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.6 Q2 10 7.2 0.038 1.165 Jan-10 37.222 2012 49.65 1.7 Q1 11 3.6 239 9.4 29.5 3.068 Aug-10 17.2 0.6 3.12 3.6 3.5 2.3 Q4 09 6.2 5.392 1.4 2. eop Stock Market (variation of KOSPI in %) Exchange Rate (KRW per USD.0 4.6 555 529 10.2 3.4 -0.140 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 56 . in %) Private Consumption (annual var.2 19.9 Q3 11 4.1 16.2 379 351 14.2 15.9 188 22.29 1.6 3.551 845 4.8 3.5 3.7 4.7 4.9 2. Index (100-point threshold) Business Confid.2 6.372 4.3 Q3 10 4.5 Q1 10 8.99 1.4 6.0 1. var.5 21.7 2.3 110 100.183 2013 49.29 1.3 4.4 11.5 18.3 13.2 2.2 4.8 18.8 2.3 0.3 2.6 313 7.9 3.131 2009 48.3 936 929 0.2 Q2 11 4.8 110 111.9 28.7 -25.4 27.131 Feb-10 18.6 2.7 3.4 109 111.0 -0.70 54.6 11.8 1.35 2.1 1.4 16.0 3.4 8.4 3.8 11.4 4.033 1.9 3.4 Q4 10 4.6 1.8 2.0 383 36.105 1. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.3 1.3 349 7.707 952 5.9 5.1 25.21 1.2 -0.0 5.1 3.6 1.7 3.7 2.9 29. in %) BoK Base Rate %.041 1. in %) Government Consumption (ann.59 1. annual variation in %) BoK Base Rate %.4 9. % of active population) Consum.3 27.2 111 113.1 3.75 1.0 4.7 210 9.013 6.7 6.49 4.6 4.1 0.7 17.6 4.8 201 5.7 16.3 3.7 378 40.6 1.1 3.7 433 427 14.2 Q3 09 1.4 260 27.850 1.7 0.1 5.1 0.00 1.9 -0.042 1.00 49.7 5. annual variation in %) Inflation (PPI.27 -40.7 289 256 12.9 12. annual var.8 457 421 22.00 1.3 17.6 23.4 3.277 5.1 5.

10 Unemployment. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan KERI Korea Invest. 2010) 2010 5.1 4. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. annual variation in %.9 4.0 7.0 3.1 4. 11 Balance of central government. 14 Balance of central government.2 6.0 6.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 .2 4. 4 GDP.3 4.2 5. 9 Industrial production. 5 Private consumption. Source: BoK.3 4.2 4.0 6. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS. annual variation in %.0 5.2 3.2 4. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 2011 3. year-on-year variation in %.0 5. 7 Private consumption. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2010 -20 Korea Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 -30 1995 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 5 2010 2011 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 7 6 4 5 3 4 2010 2011 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 GDP. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.0 5.8 4. Source: BoK.5 6.3 5.7 5.1 3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 57 .3 4.7 6.8 4. Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea (BoK).0 6.9 3.8 5.9 6. 6 Gross fixed investment.7 7.8 4.9 6.0 4.3 4. & Securities LG Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets SERI Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Woori I&S Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (July 2010) IMF (Oct. Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). See below for details.5 4.0 5.5 4.0 6. All real sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT).5 4. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2010) ADB (Sep.0 6.9 4.2 5. 12 Industrial production.1 6. % of active population.1 6.2014 | % variation 12 Korea November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 15 Korea Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 6 10 0 5 -6 Korea Asia (ex Japan) World -12 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 8 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 6 6 5 4 4 2 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2 5 | Consumption | % variation 20 6 | Investment | % variation 20 10 10 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 3 GDP. annual variation in %.2 6. 8 Gross fixed investment. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.1 4. Source: BoK.0 6.3 3.5 3. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 13 Unemployment. Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.9 6.0 5.1 6. Source: BoK 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted). evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 6. annual variation in %.2 4.9 5. % of GDP.6 0 0 -10 -10 Korea Asia (ex Japan) -20 1995 2000 2005 2010 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.

3 6.2 5.7 3.2 3.9 2.0 8.5 3.4 5.6 -0.1 4.1 -0.4 -0.4 6.4 9.1 5.3 3.9 6.0 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 0. & Securities LG Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets SERI Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Woori I&S Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Investment % variation 2010 2011 7.7 2.6 3.1 3.3 5.5 4.9 18.0 3.3 3.4 3. 2010 2011 3.4 4.2 9.7 6.3 2.2 -2.9 9.7 -1.4 6.5 2.3 2.5 4.3 3.8 4.4 18.5 6.7 Unemployment % of active pop.6 3.0 15.0 9 | Industry | % variation 24 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.4 17.5 -0.5 4.5 3.1 3.7 8.3 3.9 5.0 8.7 6.0 6.1 0.5 3.2 3.5 4.3 3.6 3.5 -0.4 3.8 3.4 1.4 3.0 -0.3 0.6 3.9 -1.4 -0.4 3.5 8.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 4.3 0.8 3.2 4.4 6.4 4.5 0.0 4.3 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.0 8.6 0.9 -0.8 7.2 0.3 -0.4 3.2 8.5 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 -2 -4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 58 .7 4.0 6.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010 2011 4.1 4.3 4.4 -0.3 4.1 3.2 6.4 Industry % variation 2010 2011 17.8 -0.1 3.5 3.5 1.5 8.1 2.4 -0.1 3.0 2.5 4.0 3.5 4.2 3.1 2.2 3.4 6.3 3.1 13.0 3.0 16.0 0.0 3.4 -2.2 3.4 4.3 3.5 3.8 3.4 5.4 -0.5 4.9 0.2 17.5 12 3.0 6.7 14.8 4.1 0.6 6.6 -0.8 -1.2 7.4 6.3 3.0 8 2010 2011 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2.0 6.8 3. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan KERI Korea Invest.1 4.6 14.4 6.7 6.6 15.0 0.3 0. 9 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 4 16 6 8 3 0 Korea Asia (ex Japan) -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 Korea Asia (ex Japan) -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 Korea Asia (ex Japan) World 0 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 20 2010 2011 16 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 4.5 Korea November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 3.1 3.0 5.7 7.4 3.0 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 2 2010 2011 3.0 14.

Korea Exchange (KRX) and the Bank of Korea (BoK). Source: KRX.1 3.0 30 2 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -30 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.7 2. 21 | 10-Year Bond | in % 7. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.1 3. & Securities LG Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets SERI Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Woori I&S Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (July 2010) IMF (Oct. 16 Quarterly inflation.7 2.3 2.9 2. Money. average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.0 2.1 3.4 2.8 3. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.9 2. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan KERI Korea Invest.6 3.8 2.1 3.0 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3. 20042009. annual variation of M1 in %.3 2. Jan 2002 until end of previous month.8 3. 2010) 2010 2. 22 Daily index levels.0 2. 21 10-year bond yield in %.8 2. 15 Inflation. 1995-2009.8 2.3 2. All monetary sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT). 20 Money. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995-2004 | in % 12 Korea Asia (ex Japan) 8 4 16 | Inflation | Q1 07 .0 3.5 3 3.0 2011 3.9 3. Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). annual variation in % (eop).5 1.7 2.9 2. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.Q4 11 | in % 8 Inflation | annual avg.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var.9 2.5 3.9 3. KOSPI.1 3.000 4.5 3.9 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.8 2. 17 Inflation.1 3. 19 Core and producer price indices.9 2. 6 Core Price Index PPI 4 20 | Money | % variation 60 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.FOCUSECONOMICS Korea November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.5 3.8 2.5 22 | Stock Market | KOSPI 2.6 2.5 1. 2008 until end of previous month. of consumer price index in % 4 0 Korea Asia (ex Japan) 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 4 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 4.0 2 Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2.9 3.4 3.5 2. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.9 2.9 2.9 2. See below for details.8 2. 18 Inflation.9 2. Jan.9 2.0 3.500 5.6 3.2 2.2 3.000 6. Source: BoK.7 3. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2010) ADB (Sep.0 2.7 3.8 2.5 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 500 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 59 .6 3. var. Source: BoK.8 2.

.050 1. 30 Exchange rate.50 2.75 4.50 2.25 3.75 2. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.100 1.50 2.070 1. 26 Interest rate.75 4.00 2.136 1.75 2.050 1.030 1.076 4 10 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int.50 2.050 1. 29 Exchange rate.25 3.65 2. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.105 1.50 3. 28 Quarterly exchange rate. BoK Base Rate in % (eop).75 2.000 600 1995 2000 2005 2010 800 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.75 2.000 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995-2004| in % 30 Korea Asia (ex Japan) 20 Korea November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07 .00 2.50 2. 27 Exchange rate.110 1.200 1.600 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 | KRW/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 1.050 1.062 1.50 3.120 1.200 1. 24 Quarterly interest rate.25 3.75 3. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 5 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 4 3 3 2 Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.050 1. imports and exports.025 1.000 1.050 1. 29 | KRW/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 1.050 1.070 1.050 1.150 1.Q4 11 | in % 6 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate % 2010 2011 2.000 1.800 28 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD 1.75 2.090 1.070 1. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan KERI Korea Invest. 32 Trade balance. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 5 26 | Int.42 Exchange Rate KRW per USD 2010 2011 1.75 2. KRW per USD (eop). 35 Exports.75 2. & Securities LG Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets SERI Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Woori I&S Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 27 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD 1. months of imports.25 3.100 1. in USD bn.120 1. KRW per USD (eop).140 1.25 2.120 1.136 1. annual variation in %.61 2. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.100 1.060 1.400 Maximum Consensus Minimum 1. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.65 2. 23 Interest rate.25 3.130 1.130 1. 33 International reserves.000 800 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 800 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 60 .400 1.00 2.43 3. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 36 External debt as % of GDP.200 1.060 1.133 1.160 1.50 2.078 1.29 3.050 1.200 1.25 2.50 2.049 1. 25 Interest rate.060 1.25 2.100 1.200 1.140 1.50 2.75 3.100 1. BoK Base Rate in % (eop). 31 Current account balance as % of GDP.100 1.000 1.25 2. 34 Current account in USD bn.100 1.50 3.000 1.59 2.000 1.75 3.25 2. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months. All monetary and external sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK).75 4.400 1.400 1.060 1.000 1.

1 27.0 16.3 36.5 13.2 19.5 35. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 23.4 28.5 33.7 16.1 13.9 6.4 12.5 41.2 36.0 19.1 32.5 18. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan KERI Korea Invest.7 35.7 26.0 14.9 22.0 44.8 41.9 17.0 35.1 7.6 38.0 6.1 13.7 19.7 56.0 14.6 23.5 27.FOCUSECONOMICS Korea November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.0 12. of fcst 30 2010 2011 20 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 45 36 | External Debt | % of GDP 60 30 40 15 0 10 20 -15 Korea Asia (ex Japan) Korea Asia (ex Japan) 0 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -30 1995 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 61 .4 27.0 26.5 23.5 28.5 11.0 13.6 27.0 17.3 54. & Securities LG Morgan Stanley RBC Capital Markets SERI Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Woori I&S Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 12 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 900 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.5 17.3 24.1 16.1 14.3 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 31.9 19.5 13.7 15.1 12.1 28.8 33. Reserves | months of imports 20 Korea Asia (ex Japan) 15 600 6 300 0 0 Korea Asia (ex Japan) -6 1995 2000 2005 2010 -300 1995 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 34 | Current Account | evol.6 54.5 56.7 18.0 20.2 34.4 20.6 15. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 313 330 293 311 284 308 299 317 287 304 304 329 285 300 290 308 254 310 254 313 290 290 294 294 293 300 330 310 313 314 313 312 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.8 34.8 13.1 23.4 35.0 20.0 43.8 33.1 32.2 10.2 27.4 24.1 16.5 29.6 30.7 8.1 27.0 20.2 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 460 496 476 526 459 499 470 521 471 508 454 518 439 501 464 488 431 490 444 456 494 454 473 460 510 431 476 459 457 456 457 454 473 526 500 502 502 507 507 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 428 474 432 488 427 480 431 492 416 451 413 475 394 465 423 473 411 478 428 425 476 420 445 425 490 394 432 425 421 422 424 421 445 492 476 474 475 480 480 Int.4 17.9 33.6 18.1 36.2 27.0 16.0 39.0 45.4 28.5 22.

2009 est.608 Incheon.6 39.6 m) Daegu (3.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Korea November 2010 Korea in the Region Population | %-share in Asia Korea 2% Official name: Capital: Other cities: Republic of Korea Seoul (9.6 Population density (per km2.0 75% 75% 7. Pohang Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 12% USA 11% USA 9% EU-27 9% Japan 15% Japan 6% Political Data President: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank Governor: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Lee Myung-bak 19 December 2007 December 2012 Kim Chong-soo Exports Other 28% China 30% Other 36% Imports China 20% Other Asia 13% Other Asia 11% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating A1 A A+ Outlook Stable Stable Stable Heavy industry products 79% Primary products | share in % Consumer goods 10% Electric & electronic machine 14% Industrial materials 30% Strengths Weaknesses Exports • Highly developed infrastructure • Globally leading position in internet penetration • Highly dependent on energy imports • Quickly ageing population Crude materials and fuels 11% Other capital goods 11% Imports • Lingering geopolitical • Highly educated labour force uncertainty regarding North Korea Fishing Food and 6% consumer goods 1% Fuels 35% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 62 . forestry Manufacturing Construction Wholesale and retail trade Transport. 2009 est.9 99.): 78. 2000): 2.381 103.0 7.461 9.2 7.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.0 1.2 m) Area (km2): 99.3 9.3 GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 2009 2.3 Agriculture.3 Real estate.268 Population (million.): 0. Pusan.9 4.7 Illiteracy rate (%.8 GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 3.0 6.2 81.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 39.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .0 2.6 33. 2009 est.0 6. storage and communication Financial intermediation 24.6 50% 50% 4. 2009 est.): 489 Population growth rate (%.647 402 386 30.3 Life expectancy (years. renting and business activities Other 0% 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 Net exports 2009 Government Consumption 0% 116 3. hunting.6 m) Pusan (4.): 48.2 6.3 25% 25% 37.1 Language: Korean Measures: Metric system Time: 9 hours ahead of GMT GDP | %-share in Asia Other 10% Indonesia 7% China 43% India 15% Korea 10% Other 16% Indonesia 6% India 38% China 53% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .241 516 9.029 1.9 25.

which is unchanged from last month’s projection. which represented only a mild improvement compared to the 3.6 23.0 -12. In August.0% over the same month last year.9 4. only a notch below this year’s 5.8 3.6% target. industrial production increased 4.6%.2 33.4% of GDP. However.0%.0% by 2015. Industrial Production | variation in % 18.2 12.3 10. with annual average growth in industrial production rising from 5. Consensus Forecast panellists left their growth forecast for this year unchanged at 7.9% yoy.5 6.1 Year-on-year Mar Apr May Annual Average Jun Jul Aug Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 24. The budget was well received by the markets.0 13.3 48.3 -6. and expects the economy to grow between 5.FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia November 2010 Malaysia Malaysia Outlook stable • On 15 October.0 7. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate industrial production to grow 7. the government raised its growth forecast for this year by one full percentage point to 7.5 11.2% year-on-year). Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomics calculations. Next year.1%.5 99 4. The panel expects inflation to average 1.0 14.9% this year and to accelerate next year to an average of 2.0 -0. targeting a fiscal deficit of 5. the reading fell short of market expectations.1% this year.9% yoy) along with a moderation in the pace of decline in the mining and quarrying sector (July: -5.8 -4.0% in July to 6.246 5. which had industrial output rising 5.2%.8 -6. the all-important manufacturing sector. despite delaying the fiscal consolidation measures needed to achieve the government’s objective of cutting the deficit to 3.9% yoy).8% expansion (July: +7.8% in September.2%.7 9. the trend in industrial production continues to point upwards. Meanwhile. slowed somewhat to a 6.9 16. Inflation decelerated to 1.2 2.4 • • Gerardo Morán Senior Economist REAL SECTOR | Industrial output growth accelerates but remains weak Following on the strong comeback made by the industrial sector in the first half of the year. Next year. the government unveiled its 2011 budget. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 63 .2 180 6. The acceleration was the result of higher electricity generation (July: +4.4 2010-14 29.1% in August. Consensus Forecast panellists broadly share the government’s assessment and see the economy to expanding 7.8 12. Despite the moderate August reading. mostly driven by a marked deceleration in the production of refined petroleum and chemical products. August: +4.8% this year and 5.5 -5. August: -2.0% next year.0 1.1 -4. In contrast.8 306 10. which accounts for nearly two thirds of total industrial output.4 2.0 % 0.7%. finally breaking the upward trend in place since the beginning of the year. growth in the second half continues to show signs of weakening.4 2005-09 27.0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 0.4% yoy).4% expansion tallied in July (previously reported: +3.0% and 6.589 4.4% yoy.5 10.034 5. the panel expects economic growth to decelerate to 5.4 4. the panel sees economic growth at 5.3% next year.0 -7.

0 % 0. which is unchanged over the previous month’s forecast. which marked the first time that inflation had eased in seven months.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 0.75% amid signs of a deceleration in economic growth.0 Mar 0. The monthly reading reflected an increase in prices for clothing and footwear (+0.0 Apr May Jun Jul 0. the latest having occurred on 8 July. Meanwhile.5% this year. which was offset by lower prices for transportation (-0. The flat reading came in below the 0.3 % 0. For next year. Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM).9% month-on-month). annual inflation fell to from 2.2 0. participants expect average inflation to accelerate to 2.0 Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.0 As a result of the weak monthly figure.8%.0 0.1% in August to 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia November 2010 MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases for the first time in seven months In September.1 0. 0.3%.3 2. Consensus Forecast panellists share the Bank’s assessment and anticipate inflation to average 1. which had prices adding 0.4 Monthly (left scale) 0.3 Annual (right scale) 0. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 64 . 4. Nonetheless.2 0.0 Aug Sep -2. The decision followed on three consecutive 25 base-point interest rate hikes this year. at its last meeting on 2 September. consumer prices remained unchanged over the previous month.1 0.2% mom). the Central Bank left the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.6%.9% this year.4% rise recorded in August and market expectations.0 -4.3 0.4 Inflation | Consumer Price Index 0.0 0. annual average inflation continued to rise and reached 1.0% and 2. The Central Bank expects inflation to average between 2.1%.

7 135 7.6 5.3 3. % of active population) Inflation (CPI. in %) Government Consumption (ann.5 7.9 0.3 3.44 15.75 3.4 5. in %) Fixed Investment (ann.8 -3.53 3.8 2.3 3.381 309 5.2 199 148 13.05 Jul-10 3. eop) 2005 26.4 3.6 3.0 7.763 191 -1.0 112 7.5 3.8 3.6 3.4 5.1 6.41 Malaysia November 2010 2007 27.00 45.8 8.50 3.13 3.58 3.9 1.4 21.0 2.0 3.1 157 117 -21.2 2. annual variation in %) Overnight Policy Rate (%.6 0. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.2 24.3 3.0 39.4 -7.7 27.7 9.5 38.0 3.2 41. annual var.46 3.0 1.0 6.3 3. annual average variation in %) Inflation (WPI.8 41.9 5.8 1.9 7.42 3.5 124 7.7 3.6 38.4 0.7 19.99 3.4 -5.8 0.3 0.9 Q2 11 5. in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.7 3.00 3. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.8 11.8 6.7 0.7 Q3 10 5.3 1.02 10.7 3.5 3.5 71.2 30.08 Jun-10 9.7 -5.4 45.4 3.6 2. var.47 Dec-09 7.3 35.1 176 139 6.9 Q3 09 -1.2 68.3 9.6 0.00 3.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.10 3.7 3.4 101 8.33 17.0 8.42 2006 26.9 2.2 32.1 276 231 7.8 3.2 37. eop) Stock Market (var.9 2.9 40.9 68.2 3.3 6.3 26.3 9.0 1.1 37.5 214 173 11.5 8.1 -21.1 Q4 10 4.1 43.5 2.5 3.0 53.6 2.14 2014 30.7 6.4 1.8 3.4 2.01 10.2 Q4 11 5.6 2.06 12. in %) Private Consumption (ann.1 191 151 21.2 -3. annual average variation in %) Overnight Policy Rate (%.9 14.8 3.5 4.8 3.00 3.2 5.2 3. eop) Monthly Data Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.7 7.3 31. eop) Exchange Rate (MYR per USD.8 3. annual var.3 104 8.4 3.19 2010 28.79 15.4 2.6 137 7.5 Q1 10 10.4 52.8 69.6 43.5 6.1 73.35 3.2 20.9 3.8 3.75 2.1 3.8 10.6 5.2 1.7 32.7 6.5 93 7.2 1.26 Mar-10 14.0 5.4 52.1 6.0 1. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (MYR per USD.7 70 7.5 32.849 186 6.1 34.9 2.0 20.3 2.5 5.8 Q2 10 8.52 16.7 0.6 2.77 3.3 3.50 31.1 6.7 30.7 28. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.8 8.7 2.7 Q1 11 4.8 6.8 3.0 3.50 21.3 1.3 2.8 3.01 Sep-10 0.8 3.4 2.3 258 215 9.1 3.7 82 7.280 138 5.13 3.55 16.1 3.4 Q3 11 5.41 2008 27.742 362 5.3 42. in %) Inflation (CPI.3 4.1 0.4 1.3 0.8 70.9 51.5 3.78 3.026 334 5.6 3.01 3.9 3.77 3.5 10.3 3.1 12.3 3.3 142 114 11.2 13.588 281 5.19 2013 30.3 3.2 3.6 0.4 -0.1 -4. var.2 0.25 3.7 3.0 41.31 3.2 -2.492 244 7. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.6 8.7 29.7 56.8 1.5 68.8 8.2 1.6 1.6 3.6 3.3 10.25 2011 29.3 2.7 10.88 3.6 6.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .1 17.062 161 5.5 3.1 0.4 Q4 09 4.5 -7.03 Aug-10 4.3 3.9 4.02 11.42 Jan-10 13.0 236 191 10.3 11.00 -0.26 13.6 6.1 1.26 2012 29.0 97 9.00 3.3 166 135 17.8 6.6 2.07 3.09 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 65 .1 -3.6 9.0 40. eop) Exchange Rate (MYR per USD.2 2.0 -3.7 7.3 -4.5 3.2 6.25 -39.1 3.09 Apr-10 10.0 1.1 5.1 6.1 -3.27 Feb-10 4.04 3.8 22.6 3.2 2.4 29.2 6.2 3. var.10 May-10 12.27 2009 28.3 37.0 -3.992 222 4.7 33. of FTSE BM KLCI in %) Exchange Rate (MYR per USD.

0 6.2 6. annual variation in %. Bank Negara Malaysia).0 5. 2010) IMF (Oct.5 7. 1 GDP. 13 Unemployment.2 6. 3 GDP.0 5. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6.0 4.0 5. 5 Private consumption.3 5.5 5. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 6.9 7.3 6.5 7. Source: DSM. annual variation in %.3 5.7 7.1 5. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.2 7.8 7. Source: DSM. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted).2014 | % variation 15 Malaysia November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 15 Real GDP growth in % 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -10 1995 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) World 2000 2005 2010 -5 -10 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) World Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 10 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 8 6 6 4 4 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 18 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 6 | Investment | % variation 50 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 25 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.1 7.0 .0 5.7 7. 12 Industrial production.0 6.2 5. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 4. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 6. 8 Gross fixed investment.8 8.1 5.1 5.5 6.3 6. Source: DSM. Source: BNM.8 2011 6.3 7.1 6.1 4. 10 Unemployment.2 7.6 5.0 4.1 7.0 7. annual variation in %.4 5.5 4. 2010) 2010 7.5 6. 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 7 2010 6 2011 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 10 2010 8 2011 5 6 4 4 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 66 .1 8. See below for details. Source: DSM.5 5. 11 Balance of central government.0 7. 2010) ADB (Sep.7 7. 7 Private consumption.0 5. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 . year-on-year variation in %. Source: DSM. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kenanga Investment Bank Maybank Investment Bank Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RHB Research Institute Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Government Budget (Oct.0 12 6 0 0 Notes and sources -6 -25 -12 1995 2000 2005 2010 -50 1995 2000 2005 2010 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.0 5.4 5. Source: DSM. % of GDP. annual variation in %.1 5.5 6.2 6. 14 Balance of central government. % of active population. 4 GDP.6 5. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.1 6. 9 Industrial production.2 5.9 7. All real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM. 6 Gross fixed investment.

2 5.7 5.2 5.3 7.3 3.7 6.4 7.3 3.6 Malaysia November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 4.5 5.8 -4.0 6.6 5.3 5.0 5.5 3. 5 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 4 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 4 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) World 0 10 3 0 -4 -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 2 1995 2000 2005 2010 -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 8 2010 2011 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 4.6 5.5 8.2 -7.0 5.0 11.2 4.4 5.5 2010 2011 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -4 -5 6 4.3 3.5 -5.2 3.7 5.4 -5.3 4.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2011 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 67 .3 3.5 -3.0 6.6 -3.0 -6 4 3.8 7.6 5.8 5.4 6. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kenanga Investment Bank Maybank Investment Bank Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RHB Research Institute Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Investment % variation 2010 2011 9.5 6.0 6.3 -4.9 5.4 -5.4 3.7 4.2 4.5 5.3 3.0 6.5 -4.0 -5.1 3.7 6.5 2.4 -5.1 8.4 6.1 6.3 3.0 -4.2 7.5 3.5 10.6 -5.5 6.2 -4.8 6.6 -6.2 6.5 6.6 3.3 5.2 5.5 8.0 12.5 7.5 -5.2 7.5 -4. 2010 2011 3.2 8.6 -5.0 6.7 -5.0 3.8 11.1 7.7 -4.0 Unemployment % of active pop.8 Industry % variation 2010 2011 5.4 -4.5 -5.7 4.5 5.9 5.4 6.4 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.6 -5.4 3.2 3.4 -3.5 5.9 6.3 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -5.5 5.3 9.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010 2011 6.0 10.6 6.1 8.9 6.5 5.6 8.0 8.6 6.3 3.5 3.2 -6.4 5.2 12.6 6.1 2.4 3.7 7.4 3.5 -7 2010 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 3.3 5.6 4.1 3.2 9.0 6.6 3.9 9.0 6.4 5.0 7.3 -5.3 5.4 -5.4 7.7 -4.8 5.3 7.2 -4.7 -5.0 5.0 -4.5 -7.5 -5.2 3.4 3.1 5.4 3.3 -5.6 6.6 9 | Industry | % variation 30 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 20 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.6 7.8 6.3 -4.7 5.8 6.3 3.5 3.3 6.6 -4.0 -4.4 3.0 6.5 3.4 3.6 8.7 8.6 6.5 3.5 -5.5 8.5 7.4 -6.0 8.2 3.2 7.7 5.0 -5.1 6.1 -5.0 -4.5 8.

7 2.9 1. 22 Daily index levels.4 2.0 2.2014 | in % 12 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 9 8 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 12 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) Inflation | annual avg. 17 Inflation. Source: MSCI Barra.3 2. 2010) 2010 1.8 2011 2.6 2. 21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD.9 1. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 15 Inflation.400 400 1.4 2.6 1. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kenanga Investment Bank Maybank Investment Bank Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RHB Research Institute Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Government Budget (Oct.0 2. var. of consumer price index in % 6 4 3 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 4 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 4 3 3 2 2 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 0 19 | Producer Prices | % variation 12 20 | Money | % variation 40 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.6 2.7 2. Bank Negara Malaysia).0 2. 1995-2009.7 1. Source: BNM.0 .8 2.2 2.2 1. 2008 until end of previous month.6 2. annual variation in % (eop).000 200 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 800 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 68 . 2010) IMF (Oct.6 2.7 2. All real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM.3 1.3.2 2.0 2. Source: DSM.7 3.0 1.0 2. 1.9 1.4 2. 1995-2009.6 2. 2008 until end of previous month.5 2. 20 Money. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.8 2.3 3. Money.1 3.6 2. From Jan. FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI.0 2. See below for details. year-on-year variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.4 8 20 4 0 0 -4 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 -20 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources 21 | MSCI Price Index 500 22 | Stock Market | FTSE BM KLCI 1.7 2.200 300 1.5 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.3 1.5 2.600 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.5 1. 16 Quarterly inflation. 19 Producer price indiex.7 2. Source: DSM. 18 Inflation.8 1.7 2. From Jan.0 1.5 2. annual variation of M1 in %.9 1.5 2. 2010) ADB (Sep.6 3.0 2. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.9 2.1 2. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 .8 1.7 1. Source: DSM. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 1.7 2. Source: FTSE Bursa Malaysia.

Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 26 | Int.75 3.05 3.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .75 3.. See below for details. 32 Trade balance.75 3.25 3.75 3.05 2.05 3.10 3.01 3. 29 Exchange rate.17 3.75 3. Source: DSM. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kenanga Investment Bank Maybank Investment Bank Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RHB Research Institute Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 27 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD 4. Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop). Source: BNM.5 3. 23 Interest rate.18 2. 33 International reserves.25 3. 26 Interest rate. in USD bn.13 3. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Bank Negara Malaysia).0 3.15 3.10 3.75 3.01 3.90 3.10 2.50 3.91 2.75 3.0 28 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD 3.08 2. 28 Quarterly exchange rate.2014 | in % 10 Malaysia November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 4 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % MYR per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 2.5 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2.10 3. 36 External debt as % of GDP. 35 Exports.00 2.4 3. Source: BNM.2 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.75 3. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.03 2.90 2.80 2.25 3.17 3.75 3.50 3.07 3.5 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 69 . Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 3 4 2 2 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 34 Current account in USD bn.08 2.75 3.13 3.5 1995 2000 2005 2010 3.50 3.75 2. Source: DSM.09 3.95 2.11 8 3 6 4 2 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int.05 2.00 3.20 3. Source: BNM.25 3.25 3. MYR per USD (eop).0 2.21 3.18 3. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. All real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM.75 3.75 2.21 2. Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop).50 3.5 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 | MYR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 4. 27 Exchange rate.00 2.00 3. Source: BNM.00 3.02 2. imports and exports. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.77 2.0 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4.06 2.6 3.00 2.77 2.75 2.00 3.10 3.75 3.10 3.75 2.5 3.75 3.12 2. annual variation in %.08 3.0 3.75 3.5 3.0 3.25 3.00 2.95 2.75 3. Source: BNM.08 3. months of imports. 2.15 3.00 2. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.77 2. Source: BNM.93 3. MYR per USD (eop). 31 Current account balance as % of GDP.75 2. 24 Quarterly interest rate.25 3. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.11 3. 25 Interest rate.0 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 29 | MYR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 4.8 3. 30 Exchange rate.12 3.10 3.75 3. Source: BNM.05 2.

7 52.3 23.0 34.6 41.4 34.4 32.9 33.9 36.6 35.3 41.8 34.7 34.4 23.0 54.6 31.7 43.0 34.8 35.0 31. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 28.6 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 189 214 200 227 176 195 204 227 182 195 201 236 179 203 195 222 180 201 196 226 196 203 176 204 195 191 191 187 187 195 236 214 214 212 208 207 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 157 176 151 175 133 149 173 196 144 163 154 182 136 160 154 181 142 159 161 189 160 169 133 173 154 151 151 146 146 149 196 175 173 171 164 164 Int.6 43.0 37.2 43.2 35.6 34.4 34.FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.9 31.0 37.4 31.8 35.8 32.7 38.7 35.3 32.6 38.8 46.8 24.6 38.8 24.4 49.0 28. Reserves | months of imports 20 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 15 200 10 100 0 0 Malaysia -10 1995 Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 -100 1995 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 34 | Current Account | evol.0 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 31.0 49.7 38.9 34.1 40.5 41.0 35.3 31.3 32.8 41.1 43.2 33.3 30.2 34.3 47.0 43.2 47.6 38. of fcst 40 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 30 36 | External Debt | % of GDP 80 Malaysia Asia (ex Japan) 35 15 60 30 0 40 25 2010 20 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2011 -15 20 -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 70 . Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 105 120 98 107 103 112 108 119 115 125 103 115 107 112 101 104 103 110 99 105 95 104 107 117 95 115 103 104 103 104 104 104 125 112 112 112 113 113 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.8 35.2 34.8 35.5 35.8 34.2 41.3 35.4 36.2 33.7 39.2 32.6 38.2 29.2 31.7 40.9 40.3 47.0 26. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kenanga Investment Bank Maybank Investment Bank Morgan Stanley OCBC Bank RHB Research Institute Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 20 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 300 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.8 42.6 33.2 36.1 54.0 38.7 37.5 42.8 33.

8 Population growth rate (%.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones . 2009 est.9 11. hunting.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade 25% 25.0 Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .413 103 99.6 6.2 m) Ipoh (1. English Measures: Metric system Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT GDP | %-share in Asia India 38% China 53% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 8.4 m) Pinang (1.200 Port Kelang Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 11% Japan 10% Singapore 22% USA 13% USA 8% EU-27 10% Japan 10% Political Data Prime Minister: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank Governor: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Najib Tun Razak 8 March 2008 March 2013 Zeti Akhtar Aziz Singapore 16% Exports China 16% Imports China 15% Other 18% Other Asia 16% Other 17% Other Asia 19% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating A3 AA- Outlook Stable Stable Stable Primary products | share in % Oil & Palm oil & derivative 8% derivative 9% Consumer goods 7% Other 9% Strengths Weaknesses Exports Electronics & electric equipment 41% Other 42% Capital goods 15% Imports • Competitive labour costs • Advanced financial sector • Net exporter of oil and gas • Scarcity of qualified labour • Vulnerability to external shocks • Low productivity Intermediate goods 68% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 71 .2 704 540 157.0 11.7 Life expectancy (years.849 98.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Malaysia November 2010 Malaysia in the Region Population | %-share in Asia Malaysia 1% Korea 2% Other 9% Indonesia 7% China 43% India 15% Malaysia 2% Korea 10% Indonesia 6% Other 14% Official name: Capital: Other cities: Malaysia Kuala Lumpur (1. 2000): 11.7 7.3 Language: Bahasa Malaysia.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.7 Real Estates and Business Services Finance and Insurance 25% 13.750 Population (million.3 50% 4.7 Manufacturing 50% 3.1 GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 2009 7.7 111 57.8 27. forestry Mining and Quarrying 75% 75% 26.9 30.517 2.4 0% 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 2009 Government Consumption Net exports Other 0% 118 1.): 28.): 85.721 7.9 Agriculture.3 Illiteracy rate (%.0 m) Area (km2): 329.2 5. 2009 est. 2009 est.2 10.): 1. 2009 est.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 15.3 Population density (per km2.): 73.3 9.

inflation fell to 3.4 28. which should buttress private consumption in the months ahead. the panel anticipates inflation to inch up to 4. overseas Filipino workers’ remittances. fell somewhat in August.7 0.0 -25.4 -1. the result represents the eighth consecutive month with the industrial sector growing at a double-digit pace.3 -2.8% higher than in August 2009. which account for more than 10% of GDP.0%. However. In September.7 245 2. For 2011.5% from 4.8 % 0.2 78 973 4.6% year-on-year in August. expanding at a double-digit pace for the ninth consecutive month in August. external sector data point to an ongoing recovery.8% higher than in the same month last year.8 3. In 2011.0 -20.0 42.7 2010-14 97. 16 out of 20 industrial sectors surveyed by the National Statistical Institute expanded over the same month last year.50 billion (July: USD 1.6 20.6 43. Consensus Forecast panellists lowered their forecasts for a fifth consecutive month and now expect inflation to reach 3.9 36. Although aided by a weak base of comparison.1%. panellists see growth moderating to 5.7 69. Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.1%.5 26.547 4.9% in 2010.9% in the first half of the year. which account for more than 10% of gross domestic product. Exports | variation in % 50.0 Annual (left scale) Yoy change of trailing 12-month sum (right scale) -40.4 -0.2 • • Marcos Felipe Casarin Economist REAL SECTOR | Economy is expected to expand in Q3.0 23.62 billion). Consensus Forecast panellists expect exports to expand 22.6 -4. On the other hand.1 2005-09 88. merchandise exports continue to grow at a robust pace. In addition.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.9% yoy) and represented the ninth consecutive month of double-digit growth. initial monthly data for the third quarter provide a fairly robust picture of the overall economy. which is up 0.4 4. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate GDP to expand 6.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.9% in August 2009.9 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug However. In July.7 138 1.0 40.5 42.6 -18. reaching USD 1.6%. overseas Filipino workers’ remittances. the reading was 9. The reading came in above July’s already robust figure (+35. as the leading economic indicator (LEI) for the July-September period expanded at a slower pace than in the previous quarter. the result was favoured by a low comparison base.8 37. Nonetheless.3% in 2010 and 10.0 -7.9 4.0 % -20.496 5.1% in 2011.7 40.2 33. Meanwhile. economic activity is likely to have decelerated in the third quarter.7 35. albeit at a less markedly pace After having grown a sound 7.3 3. In 2011. as exports had plunged 20. which is up 0.FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines November 2010 Philippines Philippines Outlook improves • Preliminary data suggest that the economy decelerated in the third quarter. were 9. Consensus Forecast panellists raised their 2010 GDP forecasts for a fifth consecutive month and now expect economic growth to reach 6.0 25.6% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 72 .1 5. as merchandise exports soared 36. However.8 5. Note: Year-on-year changes of monthly and 12-month sum of merchandise exports in %.0% in August. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 80. the panel expects economic growth to moderate to 5.

light and water.5% in September (August: +4. undershooting market expectations of a 4. which is the reference rate for the Central Bank’s policy making.5% in August to 3.2% yoy).0 -0.24% over the previous month.43 0. the panel expects consumer prices to step up to 4. 0.0% rate.8% (August: +4. Furthermore. Annual average inflation.24 Aug Sep 0. accelerated from 3.0%.0 0. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate annual inflation to average 3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 73 .24 % 2. which is down 0.5% with a ± 1.0% year-on-year). annual core inflation. decreased to 3.24 0.0 percentage-point tolerance margin set by the Bank for this year. the monetary board decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its most recent meeting on 26 August.56 0.24 0. Therefore.0 In September. annual headline inflation eased to 3.24 0. The monthly price drop mainly reflected a pronounced decrease in prices for fuel.0 Annual (right scale) 6.8% in September. Meanwhile. which fell 2.0 percentage-point tolerance margin.3 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul -0.29% over August.6 0. monetary authorities also announced the new inflation target for the 2012-14 period at 4.9 Monthly (left scale) 0.0 Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.3 % 0.19 0. although it still remains below the target of 4.62 0. Source: National Statistics Office (NSO). which contrasted the 0. As a result of the monthly figure. owing to the benign inflation outlook and to the increasing productive capacity of the economy.24 0. which excludes more volatile price categories such as oil and fresh food.24% price rise observed in the previous month.18 -0.0% with a ± 1. For 2011.9% this year.55 4.55 0. consumer prices decreased 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast.FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases in September November 2010 Inflation | Consumer Price Index 0.

0 2.7 7.9 4.0 4.6 1.4 Q4 09 2.9 45.274 218 5. annual var.0 65.6 -7. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.9 62.1 7.62 2013 99. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD.6 4.3 6.6 67. eop) Monthly Data Inflation (CPI.7 May-10 -0.4 4.5 5.8 8.41 2008 90.3 25.3 -6.79 42.18 43.9 Apr-10 0.3 Mar-10 0.727 272 4.2 11.9 23.8 2.8 7.7 -3.9 59.8 3.0 9.3 6.6 4.9 4.6 53.5 53. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) Current Account (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.1 Q1 10 7.5 43. eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD.4 1.50 2014 101.26 49.2 4.6 10.4 Jan-10 0.9 4.0 -7.0 41.9 4.8 5.71 41.9 48.61 53. annual average variation in %) Inflation (Core.3 5.4 6.0 8.2 54.24 3.0 5. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.5 7.5 2.5 4.5 44.4 2.2 41.8 -6.28 41.2 37.18 43.7 Q4 11 5.89 46.8 6.5 -11.8 3.0 4.9 3.3 46.8 3.6 41.1 27.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .3 5.1 5.7 50.7 4.1 Q3 10 5.6 62.7 Q3 09 0.3 3.9 37.4 4.2 3.8 7.2 1.6 5.6 5.2 Feb-10 0.3 61.1 42.9 3.50 43.4 1. annual var.1 2.9 6.3 58.7 46.8 3.3 8.027 190 6. var.6 54.7 1.79 42.4 44.2 -2.8 5.1 63.6 64.9 5.747 161 1.1 4.7 30.5 5.7 2.6 Dec-09 0. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann.1 2.4 73.3 14.1 4.4 55.7 7.4 56.8 -0.8 40.9 24.1 5.8 2.58 2011 95.6 -8.37 Philippines November 2010 2007 88.9 1.4 -0.9 8.3 7.4 53.2 53.6 5.4 -22.9 0.38 41.7 59.0 8.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.9 21.6 7. in %) Private Consumption (ann.2 1.7 71.9 4. var.1 55.8 10.55 4.8 10.9 6.4 7.1 -15.4 3.7 7.8 15.2 58.1 -2.8 4. eop) Remittances (USD bn) 2005 85.9 22.1 -3.5 5.55 2009 92.6 7.1 5.4 47.9 7.9 56.6 2.24 4.3 1.3 19.2 3.89 46.7 4.6 6.5 69.2 1.3 48.352 118 5.9 66.1 -2.4 24.12 47.2 10.0 53.6 0.5 Jun-10 0.3 1.1 5.3 7.6 3.5 46.1 44.04 43.8 10.9 4.7 -9.4 5.2 49.1 Sep-10 -0.1 4.1 -2.5 2.0 53.8 4.7 3.4 9.18 41.18 4. eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD.2 7.7 9. eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD.6 3.0 -11.1 -3.9 57.9 10. annual variation in %) Inflation (PPI.3 Q2 10 7.1 10.4 45.8 Aug-10 0.4 Q2 11 4.4 45.8 -1.161 99 5.9 - FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 74 .7 4.24 3.1 51.3 7.3 3.2 50.8 1.2 6.509 245 5.1 33.43 4.8 4. annual average variation in %) Treasury Bill Rate 91 Days (%.3 15.24 4.9 2.2 1.1 5.1 1.0 18.4 6.2 46.5 3.4 -8.7 22.3 57.3 4.8 6.2 55.62 2012 97.9 5.24 3.1 3.5 8.3 3.7 2.3 -24.1 11.71 42. in %) Inflation (CPI.5 11.4 7. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.625 144 7.7 6.2 Jul-10 0.9 5.7 46.88 45.9 12.1 60.847 167 3.8 6.3 46.55 4.4 4. of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.9 3.3 1.7 4.0 54.0 45.6 5.4 46.3 33.6 1.3 46.4 Q3 11 5.57 2006 86.6 -12.3 4.8 8.9 32.0 3.24 4.941 299 4.0 8.6 3.4 -3.9 2.0 2.8 Q4 10 4.52 2010 93.5 -13.6 Q1 11 4.2 4.99 46.2 0.9 38.25 43.7 45.1 -2.1 6. annual variation in %) Treasury Bill Rate 91 Days (%.4 4.9 46.2 3.0 4.1 11.99 47.

FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 . 7 Private consumption. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 12 Industrial production. annual variation in %. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 5.3 5. Source: NSCB. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 2010 2011 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 12 2010 2011 8 5.4 5.9 5.0 4. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). 0 1995 -20 1995 2000 2005 2010 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 6.1 5. the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines (BSP.9 7.4 6.3 5. 4 GDP.0 7.9 5.8 4. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).6 5. 2010) 2010 7.0 7.6 5. 11 Balance of national government.0 7.0 4. Source: NSCB.7 6.6 5.5 6.1 4. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 4 3.0 2011 6.0 5.2 3. 9 Industrial production.8 7.6 5.9 4.1 7.5 5. annual variation in %. 13 Unemployment. 10 Unemployment. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 5. Source: NSCB. Source: BSP. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 6.5 3. 3 GDP.4 6.6 5. annual variation in %.3 6.0 4. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted). 14 Balance of national government.8 6.2014 | % variation 12 Philippines November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 15 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 10 6 5 0 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) World -6 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 4 4 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6 Gross fixed investment.5 6.4 3. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 Private consumption. year-on-year variation in %.5 5 | Consumption | % variation 9 6 | Investment | % variation 30 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 20 6 10 0 3 -10 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.6 6. 1 GDP.4 5. % of active population.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 75 . 8 Gross fixed investment.8 7. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: NSO. See below for details.0 6.6 6.2 3.2 6.6 6. Credit Suisse DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metropolitan Bank and Trust Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts ADB (Sep.6 4. 2010) IMF (Oct. annual variation in %. Source: NSO. Source: NSCB.3 7.7 4. % of GDP.

9 -3.0 5.5 5.0 -4.1 7.3 4.5 2010 2011 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 7.7 5.7 7.0 -4.3 5.0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2010 2011 -3 -2 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 76 .0 -4.1 -3.9 4.4 7.6 5.9 13.5 7.9 6.1 -3.9 10.5 8.7 7.8 -3.7 4.3 7.3 -3.1 4.8 4.1 -4.2 -3.7 6.2 2.5 4.0 5.4 7.9 6.7 7.8 -4.6 5.8 11.8 Investment % variation 2010 2011 6.9 5.0 7.8 -3.7 7.0 -3.1 4.7 4.1 5.5 6.0 4 7.5 7.2 5.0 -3.9 -3.9 7.6 -3.5 5.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.2 -3.3 5.6 -4.6 8.5 4.7 7.0 -3.0 -3.7 -3.8 -3.6 16.6 9.0 4.0 7.3 5.0 -3.5 16.1 9 | Industry | % variation 20 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.9 7.0 -3.9 -3.9 4.6 4.9 5.7 7.9 Unemployment % of active pop.0 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -1 8.0 -3.7 -3.9 4.9 7.1 5.2 5.5 -3.3 7.0 5. 12 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 4 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) World 10 9 0 0 6 -4 -10 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 3 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 -20 1995 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 8 2010 2011 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 9.9 3.5 9.6 -3.5 6 8.0 5.3 -3.0 5.9 5.7 7.2 -4. Credit Suisse DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metropolitan Bank and Trust Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Consumption % variation 2010 2011 5.9 7.1 7.8 5. 2010 2011 7.5 2.6 4.6 -3.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Philippines November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.1 -3.0 -4.6 7.1 5.7 7.5 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -4.3 8.1 -3.1 7.5 9.0 7.

5 3.8 4.5 4.1 2. 2010) ADB (Sep. Source: MSCI Barra. 19 Core and producer price indices. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.2 4. Source: NSO. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.0 3. of consumer price index in % 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 4 4 2 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 2008 until end of previous month.000 4. 22 Daily index levels. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 4. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). 18 Inflation.3 3. var.4 4.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 77 . 21 | MSCI Price Index 380 22 | Stock Market | Phisix Composite 5.2 4.0 4. Money. Source: BSP. 2010) 2010 4.2 4. Source: NSO. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 . 17 Inflation.9 3.0 .3 2.9 3. Credit Suisse DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metropolitan Bank and Trust Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (June 2010) IMF (Oct.3 4. Phisix Composite Index.4 3.5 2011 4.2 3.000 300 3. annual variation of M1 in %.5 4.0 3.0 4.2014 | in % 12 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 10 8 5 4 0 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 15 Inflation | annual avg.7 4.000 220 2.7 4. 20 Money.0 3.8 3.5 4.0 4. 2008 until end of previous month.8 4.0 3.8 4. 15 Inflation. Source: NSO. annual variation in % (eop). average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.000 140 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.0 4.0 4.8 4. 21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD.5. 16 Quarterly inflation. See below for details. Source: The Philippine Stock and Exchange. 15 Core Price Index PPI 20 | Money | % variation 45 Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.9 4. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 3. 1995-2009.2 3.4 4.2 4.4 30 10 15 5 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -15 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.8 3.2 4.9 3. 20042009.3 3.9 4.5 4.5 4. Jan. Jan.5 4.2 4.0 3.2 4.1 4. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines (BSP.

1 4.00 5. 26 Interest rate.7 44.5 42. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.00 4.0 42.2014 | in % 20 Philippines November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 8 Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % PHP per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 4. 36 External debt as % GDP.0 45.0 4. 23 Treasury Bill 91-days interest rate in % (eop).00 4. 27 Exchange rate.25 5.3 42.00 4.1 42.0 41.4 43.00 43.0 43.0 46. 30 Exchange rate.9 44.00 4.0 40.9 40.3 43.50 44.25 5.5 41.25 42. 32 Trade balance.0 4.3 44.79 5.25 43. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 7 26 | Int.00 4. 34 Current account in USD bn. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 43.0 43.0 4.4 4.75 4.26 42.0 41.00 5. Source: BSP.0 43. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines (BSP.47 4. Source: BSP.0 4. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. 24 Quarterly Treasury Bill 91-days interest rate in % (eop).0 4.00 4.00 4. PHP per USD (eop).25 43. Source: NSO. imports and exports.15 5.50 43.25 43.50 5. See below for details. 50 50 40 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 40 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 78 .00 43.52 4. 35 Exports.00 43.5 45.5 4. Credit Suisse DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metropolitan Bank and Trust Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 27 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD 60 28 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD 50 50 48 46 40 44 30 42 Notes and sources 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 40 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 29 | PHP/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 60 30 | PHP/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 60 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.0 42.00 45.0 42. Source: NSO. Source: BSP.50 44. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.12 5. in USD bn.00 5. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 7 6 6 5 5 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc. months of imports.3 4.3 4.00 4.67 4. annual variation in %. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas).0 4. 33 International reserves.18 4.50 45.50 44.0 42.0 4. 25 Interest rate. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 41. PHP per USD (eop).0 45.50 43. Source: BSP.0 4. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: NSO.00 4.5 16 6 12 8 4 4 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int.. Source: BSP. 28 Quarterly exchange rate.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .75 5.8 41. 29 Exchange rate.5 4.2 42.50 5.5 41.5 4.0 42. Source: BSP.50 5.00 46.

3 7.4 50.8 61.6 Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 55.0 55.3 8.3 53.2 52.4 44.5 55.3 53.3 69.1 8.4 -4.8 57.4 45.1 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 -7.1 -9.FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.3 8.8 10. Credit Suisse DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metropolitan Bank and Trust Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 8 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 100 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.7 14.1 6.8 49.6 50.9 -5.0 -9.5 50.0 48.5 8.1 58.0 57.2 45.1 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 50.9 49.0 50.8 14.9 52.2 6.5 8.0 46.0 -12.8 -8.9 52.9 53.5 58.9 58.6 8.0 52.9 47.4 55.6 -7.3 -15.0 54.3 49.0 55.8 53.9 61.0 56.3 -8.9 7.0 -9.8 52.0 8.5 50.4 6.3 -7.2 -9.0 50.0 50.2 59.0 46. of fcst 10 2010 2011 8 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 30 36 | External Debt | % of GDP 80 15 60 6 0 40 4 -15 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 20 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 79 .7 -15.9 46.5 51.0 61.3 49.1 49. Reserves | months of imports 20 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 15 4 50 0 0 -4 Philippines Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 10 5 -8 1995 -50 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 34 | Current Account | evol.7 49.4 46.8 -2.3 -3.0 47.5 54.1 48.5 41.7 -8.9 52.7 -11.0 51.2 61.0 45.5 54.3 -12.1 48.0 48.5 45.5 3.3 -7.4 45.0 48.1 Int.1 44.6 53.0 44.8 8.6 6.7 -7.9 7.6 13.0 6.3 12.3 7.4 63.5 -11.3 66.2 -12.9 3. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 55.8 -10.0 51.9 43.0 69.9 -8.0 58.8 -9.8 8.7 8.5 52.0 51.9 -7.5 9.1 58.3 50.6 -8. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 7.1 41.4 7.4 43.1 46.0 60.2 8.6 11.0 -3.9 -9.0 45.0 -2.3 63.4 53.7 8.9 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 43.0 8.5 -11.7 52.0 49.7 53.5 8.7 -4.1 59.7 63.0 10.0 -7.0 8.0 12.9 58.1 49.7 53.1 45.5 47.4 -5.7 59.6 53.

2009 est.): 92.3 m) Davao (0.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 4.0 25 326 77. 2009 est.910 3.): 307 Population growth rate (%.1 Population density (per km2.1 Illiteracy rate (%. Other 9% Latin America 1% Other Asia 20% Exports Latin America 2% Imports China 15% Other Asia 27% China 34% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating Ba3 BBBB Outlook Stable Stable Stable Primary products | share in % Electronics 5.0 6.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.000 Population (million.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .6 49.): 71. 2000): 7.9 GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 20% GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 2009 18% Agriculture 75% 75% 50% 33% 32% 489 1. 2009 est. 2009 est.5 81. Tetangco Jr.8 m) Area (km2): 300. Lubricants & Related goods 22% Imports Capital goods 28% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 80 .0 Life expectancy (years.219 Manila Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 11% Japan 12% Other 22% USA 12% EU-27 8% Japan 14% USA 13% Political Data President: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank Governor: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Benigno Aquino 10 May 2010 May 2014 Amando M.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Philippines November 2010 Philippines in the Region Population | %-share in Asia Philippines 3% Official name: Republic of the Philippines Capital: Manila (9.7 50% Industry 25% 0% 25% 47% 50% Services -25% 2003 Private Consumption 2005 2007 Net Exports 2009 Government Consumption 0% Investment 254 897 201.627902577 58% Other 13% Raw Materials & Intermediat e Goods 37% Strengths Weaknesses Exports Agrobased 6% Other Manufactur es 25% Other 11% • Widespread English proficiency • Weak fiscal structure • Well-educated labour force • Solid telecom infrastructure • Large domestic market • Large government and external debt • Guerilla group activities remains a serious security threat on southern islands Mineral Fuels.9 m) Other cities: Cebu (1.305 56.4 Language: Filipino and English Measures: Metric system Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT GDP | %-share in Asia Philippines 2% Korea 2% Indonesia 7% Other 7% Korea 10% Indonesia 6% China 43% India 15% Other 14% India 38% China 53% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .): 2.5 1.

which is up 0. Consensus Forecast panellists left their projections unchanged and expect consumer prices to average 2.2 271 52.8 0.0% plunge in this category. which followed on a 66. Manufacturing sector output expanded 12.8 16.7 0. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 81 . The reading.0%. In 2011.0% – 15.487 6.9 2.3% year-on-year). although the other components also decelerated slightly from the peak in the second quarter.9 5. For 2011.3% qoq saar).0 6.7 0.7% in September.1 94 22.0 20. nevertheless.7% this year. the panel anticipates inflation to inch down to 2.2 2.3 10.5%. This figure was a result of pharmaceutical production. Meanwhile.6% annual growth in the second quarter. undershot market expectations of 10.6% qoq saar expansion in the previous quarter.FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore November 2010 Singapore Singapore Outlook improves • In the third quarter.8% contraction (Q2: +27. As a result of the strong economic activity.2 15. due to the characteristic volatility of the pharmaceutical sector. which typically fluctuates wildly as manufacturers close plants for cleaning before switching to producing different drugs. Consensus Forecast participants raised their GDP forecasts for the eighth consecutive month and now expect the economy to grow 13.8% expansion in the second quarter to 10. which represented a sharp deceleration compared to the 19.1% yoy.3% over the same quarter the previous year.6 % 10. the official projection for 2010 GDP growth of 13. monetary authorities tightened the policy stance on 14 October. Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to grow 13.2% in the third.9%.5 2005-09 4. marked the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. growth is likely to moderate sharply to 4. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 10. which is up 0.9%.8% this year.0 Q3 2009 3. and if attained.6% expansion tailed in the second quarter (previously reported: +19.0 19.1 • • Marcos Felipe Casarin Economist REAL SECTOR | Growth slows more than anticipated In the third quarter.3% to 3.9 15.0 16.3% from 19. the panel anticipates GDP to expand 4. In seasonally adjusted annualised terms. which.418 5. Accordingly.1 22.0 1. was maintained.8 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Note: Year-on-year changes in %. The deceleration reflected a slowdown in manufacturing. Since the subdued figure was widely expected by the government. economic growth slowed to 10. the third quarter reading is equivalent to a 19. growth in the all-important services sector – which accounts for two thirds of GDP – eased from an 11.7% this year. which is only a fraction of the 46.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. would represented the fastest rate of expansion in more than two decades. and resulted in a seasonally adjusted annualised 57. which was aimed at curbing incipient inflationary pressures.1% rise recorded in the April-June period. Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and FocusEconomics calculations. Annual inflation jumped from 3.8% growth. according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on 14 October. Gross Domestic Product | variation in % 25.736 4.7 2010-14 5. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): 2000-04 4. In 2011. The strong deceleration mainly reflected a severe slowdown in the manufacturing sector.6 160 34.0 5.

Source: Statistics Singapore (Singstat). the panel anticipates the SGD to close the year at 1.0% in 2010.0% in 2011.4 0. As a result of rising inflation. the panel expects average inflation to inch down to 2.33 per USD.7 0. Monetary authorities expect inflation to range between 2. In 2011.0 As a result of the monthly price increase.50 1.1 3. when they re-centered the exchange rate policy band and shifted the policy band from that of a zero percent appreciation path to one of modest and gradual appreciation.40 1. As a result of the change in the country’s policy stance. but matched market expectations. dollar (USD). For 2011.35 1.8% this year.6%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 82 . Consensus Forecast panellists cut their year-end forecasts for the Singapore dollar and now expect the currency to close this year at 1.1 -0. the MAS stated that its policy stance will remain consistent with an inflation rate of 2. increasing from 1.0 -1. instead of using interest rates. % 0. Exchange Rate | SGD per USD 1.5% – 3. annual average inflation rose for the sixth consecutive month in September. the decision “took into account the strong rebound of the Singapore economy from the downturn and incipient inflationary pressures emanating from domestic and external sources”.1% over the previous month.9 0. Monetary authorities last tightened their policy on 14 April.0 2.30 per USD.FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to 20-month high November 2010 In September.0% – 3.4% mom).25 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 In its statement. consumer prices added 0.6 0.S.7%.1 -0.0 Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) 1. down from 2.0 0.6 0.55 1.8% month-on-month).0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep -1. which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. which represented the highest level observed since the end of 2008. annual inflation jumped from 3.45 1.5 0.1% mom) and housing (+0. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2. MONETARY SECTOR | MAS tightens policy On 14 October.5 0.0 -1. which came in well below the 0.3% in August to 3.5%.4 0.30 1. At that moment.0 0.0 4. when they announced they would widen the Singapore dollar policy trading band and increase its slope – with no immediate change to the level at which the band is centered. the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stated that it will widen the Singapore dollar policy band and increase its slope – with no immediate change to the level at which the band is centered.3 1. instead of using interest rates.0 Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Note: Daily spot and 30-day moving average of the Singapore dollar (SGD) against U. The modest monthly reading was driven by higher prices for food (+0. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) conducts its monetary policy through the management of the exchange rate.5% increase registered in August. Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).3% in August to 1. Inflation | Consumer Price Index 2.5% this year. The MAS conducts its monetary policy through the management of the exchange rate. Monetary authorities last tightened their policy stance on 14 October. which more than offset lower prices for clothing and footwear (-1.0 -2.5% and 3.0 % 1.

3 -0.6 Q4 10 10.1 3.3 1.4 1.6 0.51 27.4 0.1 90.9 5.3 1.4 3.8 4. eop) Monthly Data Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.2 41.53 1.7 6.7 0.4 31.44 1.5 -18.2 12.66 1.33 1.44 1. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.9 2.514 177 -1.6 12.50 1.9 541 498 14. annual average variation in %) Interbank 3-Month Interest Rate (%.763 310 4.30 Jul-10 9.3 299 263 10.69 1.1 7.3 0.44 1.9 3.7 15.2 56.6 1.29 Aug-10 8.30 1.1 136 6.40 2012 5.9 35.4 13.3 174 6.6 8.6 Q2 11 1.6 2.8 0.9 2.1 9.64 1.4 1.2 53.1 23.6 1.3 116 7.53 1. annual var.29 1.7 Q4 11 5.54 1.7 23.9 0.1 14.2 2.389 172 8.84 1.8 420 374 10.1 0.5 -0.2 18.2 1.6 4.2 163 7.3 3.56 1.40 2006 4.8 -0.6 12. eop) Exchange Rate (SGD per USD.6 37.29 13.84 1.1 272 238 18.8 39.9 2.9 2.4 0. annual average variation in %) Inflation (DSPI.6 -4.9 Q4 09 3.30 Sep-10 0.0 35.2 0.0 268 8.1 1.7 2. of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.0 -0.69 1.5 3.41 19.37 2010 5.932 141 8.5 2. annual variation in %) Interbank 3-Month Interest Rate (%.4 4.9 269 245 -20.3 58.31 15.84 1.40 Mar-10 53.3 3.3 337 319 12.9 6.32 Apr-10 49.8 -0.7 0.7 95.1 1.8 2.4 Q1 11 4.1 0.30 1. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (SGD per USD.2 36.8 38.257 251 4.8 44. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann.0 44.59 24.2 6. in %) Inflation (CPI.1 49.7 1.2 2.0 113.351 121 7.3 2.4 0.9 2.4 474 422 12.7 3.50 1.6 42.31 Jun-10 29.6 Q2 10 19.33 May-10 59.7 6.6 230 200 15.3 36.5 39.66 1.32 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 83 .4 4.9 238 8.3 -4.40 Feb-10 20.8 23.2 1.0 0.6 7.6 -0. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI. eop) Exchange Rate (SGD per USD.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 Q1 10 16.7 3. in %) Private Consumption (annual var.0 2.5 0. var.45 19.687 225 13.9 274 7.27 1.5 2.8 39.2 2.5 -1.5 29.2 19.4 0.0 -2.6 6.8 -0.7 13.4 0.8 2.0 Q3 09 1.6 2.7 21.3 28. eop) Exchange Rate (SGD per USD.9 18.6 6.54 1.9 1.6 47.5 39.1 280 6.377 276 5.351 294 4.3 6.8 0.9 0.3 5.6 0.4 339 301 24.00 1.3 10.4 4.9 1.29 15.41 2008 4.8 12.7 10.40 2009 5.1 9.40 1.5 0.1 99.25 1. annual var.1 33.66 22.40 2011 5.40 Jan-10 42.2 1.2 1.1 10.8 0.6 11.55 1.9 5.29 13. eop) 2005 4.8 1.7 0.41 Dec-09 15.8 Q3 11 5.4 44.9 0. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.6 3.4 1.4 2.69 1.6 3.5 11.7 2.35 2014 5.69 1.5 214 8.63 1.5 19.8 44.3 0.7 27.2 30.40 Singapore November 2010 2007 4.7 7.5 37.5 6.2 18.7 1.0 -1.4 -3. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.2 Q3 10 10.8 6.3 3.2 92.5 22.36 17.0 33.1 1.36 2013 5.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.4 2.4 5.2 2.3 0.904 188 1.6 2.1 188 9.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .0 0.8 1.9 1.2 -23.8 381 340 12.

year-on-year variation in %.2014 | % variation 15 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) World Singapore November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 20 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) World 10 Real GDP growth in % 10 5 0 0 -5 1995 2000 2005 2010 -10 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 20 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 8 15 6 10 4 5 2 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.2 5.2 13.1 13.9 4. 1 GDP. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 5.5 5.0 4.0 16. 6 Gross fixed investment.0 15. Source: MTI and Singstat. 9 Industrial production. All real sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat).0 15.5 16.8 12. -10 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 -5 1995 -20 1995 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 2010 2011 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 12 2010 2011 10 6 8 4 6 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 84 .8 4.5 4. 2010) ADB (Sep.2 5. % of GDP. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).0 6. Source: MTI and Singstat.15. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 12.0 . Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.0 14. 10 Unemployment. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted).0 6.0 9.7 13. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts MTI (July 2010) IMF (Oct.0 16.0 5 | Consumption | % variation 15 6 | Investment | % variation 30 10 20 10 5 0 0 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.4 14. annual variation in %. Source: Ministry of Manpower. Source: MTI and Singstat.6 6. 11 Balance of general government. 4 GDP.0 14. 12 Industrial production.3 14.5 4. See below for details.3 13.9 5. 8 Gross fixed investment.5 4.3 4.2 4. annual variation in %.5 4.0 4.0 5. annual variation in %.5 14.5 13.5 9.0 14.5 5. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 14 Balance of general government.2 15.0 5. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.2 5. 3 GDP. Source: MTI and Singstat. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 .0 16.0 2011 4. the Ministry of Manpower. 5 Private consumption.8 14. 13 Unemployment. Source: Singstat.0 12. 2010) 2010 10. % of active population.0 4.0 5. annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption.0 11. Source: IMF.

3 3.5 31.1 6.3 5.2 5.7 11.2 3.3 31.5 -0.0 12.0 11.7 Unemployment % of active pop.5 1.9 7.3 -2.0 2. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Investment % variation 2010 2011 13.2 6.7 8.5 0.0 2.2 10.0 2.9 -1.0 1.9 9.0 2.5 9 | Industry | % variation 32 24 16 8 0 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.6 1.8 23.8 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010 2011 11.8 -2.6 10.1 2.8 31.6 5.3 1.0 2.1 4.8 4.8 5.2 1.0 -1.3 2.1 -2.0 7.4 9.1 4.2 2.0 2.2 30.3 2.7 6.5 5.6 4.5 1.2 9.0 Industry % variation 2010 2011 36.1 5.6 7.1 2.6 Singapore November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 2.4 28.4 7.1 4.9 4.2 2.9 8.8 8.1 3.1 -1.0 6.0 -0.4 28.1 6.4 0.5 11.1 6.5 2.7 5.2 4.9 6.3 11.0 0.0 4.0 0.2 2.4 4.8 0.0 2.2 36.8 -0.7 2.5 9.0 6.4 7.1 5.5 7.8 1.0 1.0 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 0.3 4.2 5.1 5.8 1.6 4.8 6.7 -1.3 5.6 7.3 2.6 6.0 5.3 6.0 21.0 -1.8 2.6 -0.7 3.0 2.9 7.1 -2.0 5.2 -0.2 1.2 3.0 2.8 6.0 21.1 -2.6 0.7 5.5 2.4 8.2 6.7 0.4 24.1 2.7 8.6 11.1 5.2 8.5 5.0 8.4 26. 5 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 4 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 16 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) World 8 3 0 2 -8 -16 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 1995 2000 2005 2010 -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 40 2010 2011 30 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 5 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 4 2010 2011 4 2 20 3 0 10 2 2010 2011 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 85 . 2010 2011 2.7 31.3 8.0 6.8 24.0 1.2 7.1 -0.3 2.7 -1.1 2.3 8.0 6.0 0.3 3.1 1.5 10.9 6.

Source: Singstat.0 2.FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation. 2004-2009. annual variation in % (eop). annual variation of M1 in %.7 2. Money.0 2.1 3.4 2. Source: MAS. 20 Money. 22 Daily index levels. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 2.6 3. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.5 1. All monetary sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). var.000 2.5 2.8 2. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 2.7 3. See below for details.4 3. 2008 until end of previous month.0 2.4 19 | DSPI | annual variation in % 14 20 | Money | % variation 30 7 20 0 10 -7 0 -14 -21 2004 2006 2008 -10 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.6 3. 2005 until the end of previous month.5 3.5 2.6 2. Source: Singstat.0 1.5 2.0 2. Straits Times Index. 1995-2009.5 3.6 2.2014 | in % 12 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 8 5 4 0 0 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) -4 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 10 Inflation | annual avg.6 2. 19 Domestic supply price index.2 3.5 2. 18 Inflation.8 2011 2.5 3. Source: MAS.5 2. Jan.5 1.0 2.7 2.000 3.0 2.6 2.000 3. 21 10-year bond yield in %. annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).0 2.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1. Jan. year-on-year variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).8 2.0 2. 16 Quarterly inflation. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 .8 3.7 2.7 2.5 3.5 3. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts ADB (Sep.7 2. of consumer price index in % 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 4 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 4 3 2 2 0 Maximum Consensus Minimum -2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.9 3. Source: Singapore Exchange Limited.9 2. 2010) 2010 2. 2010) IMF (Oct.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 86 .2 2.5 2. 17 Inflation. 21 | 10-year Bond Yield | in % 4.0 22 | Stock Market | Straits Times Index 4. 15 Inflation.5 2.5 2.0 2.5 2. Source: Singstat.9 2.

35 1.55 0.84 0.2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1..55 0. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.50 1. 34 Current account in USD bn.30 1.8 1.30 1.25 1.31 0.3 1995 2000 2005 2010 1. Source: MAS.60 1.28 1.28 1.85 1.2 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 29 | SGD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 1.54 0.33 0. 33 International reserves.5 1.25 0.29 1. 25 Interest rate.32 1.50 0.80 0. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat).41 1.30 0.90 1.80 0.32 0. See below for details.36 1.6 1. 1.25 0. annual variation in %. the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). in USD bn. months of imports.80 1.2014 | in % 8 Singapore November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 3 Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % SGD per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 0. 24 Quarterly Interbank 3-month interest rate in % (eop). Source: MTI and Singstat.36 1. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.32 1.35 1.70 1.24 0.36 0. 26 Interest rate.8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 1.29 1.33 1. 29 Exchange rate. Source: MTI.6 1.8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 | SGD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 1.50 1. 23 Interbank 3-month interest rate in % (eop).72 0. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.34 1.30 1.5 1. 28 Quarterly exchange rate.36 1.33 1. Source: MTI and Singstat.33 1.32 0.00 1. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 3 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 26 | Int.61 0.36 1.34 1. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.33 6 2 4 1 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 2 1 1 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.72 0. SGD per USD (eop). evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.24 1. 32 Trade balance.50 1. SGD per USD (eop).35 1.34 1.35 1.70 0.27 0.4 1. Source: MAS. 36 International reserves in USD bn.30 1. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. 30 Exchange rate.31 1. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 27 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD 2.30 1.33 1. 35 Exports.0 28 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD 1.34 1.70 1.31 0.50 0.10 1.36 1.30 1.4 1.64 1. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.60 0.4 1. Source: MAS.36 1.55 1.6 1.26 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 87 .. Source: MAS. Source: MAS. imports and exports.25 0.80 1. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 1. 27 Exchange rate.56 1.36 0.55 0.

FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.6 39.5 59.7 32. Reserves | months of imports 20 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 15 20 10 200 0 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 5 1995 2000 2005 2010 10 34 | Current Account | evol.8 25.0 29.7 62.8 50.0 48. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 208 228 212 228 214 235 222 265 227 267 200 210 231 254 202 214 200 231 213 214 212 211 213 210 267 232 238 233 230 235 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Citigroup Global Markets Inc.5 39.8 26.5 40.5 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 335 380 330 386 336 371 345 405 337 373 321 354 356 400 354 376 321 356 337 339 337 336 330 354 405 378 381 377 373 373 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 300 340 301 354 297 330 297 345 298 330 272 303 324 375 319 340 272 324 299 301 302 299 294 303 375 340 340 340 334 335 Int.7 35.3 36.5 40.0 51.9 36.0 31.0 36.0 34.1 44.0 25.8 34.4 34.5 25.8 37.0 49.2 39.0 38.3 38.8 36.4 35.0 41.3 39.0 48.5 59.0 30.0 25.8 36.8 38.6 39.9 39.7 39. of fcst 45 2010 2011 40 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 30 36 | Int.0 45.8 39.9 25.2 35.3 39.8 48.3 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 34.5 34.2 30.9 40. Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 36.7 39.4 39.9 25.5 38.1 29.7 49.3 50.0 40.3 41. of fcst 250 2010 2011 15 225 35 0 30 200 25 -15 Singapore Asia (ex Japan) 20 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 175 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 88 .6 38.0 39. Reserves (USD bn) | evol.0 39.6 39.1 39.8 43.1 43. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan OCBC Bank RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 30 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 600 Trade Balance Exports Imports 400 33 | Int.8 29.7 62.

FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Singapore November 2010 Singapore in the Region Official name: Capital: Area (km2): Population (million.7 36.5 Mandarin.): Illiteracy rate (%.2 23.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 39.1 82. 2009 est. 2000): Language: Measures: Time: Republic of Singapore Singapore (4.): Population growth rate (%.325 Singapore EU-27 9% USA 6% Japan 4% Primary markets | share in % USA 11% China 20% Other 24% Other 19% EU-27 12% Political Data Japan 8% President: Last elections: Next elections: Monetary Authority.): Life expectancy (years.5% 10% Indonesia 7% China 43% GDP | %-share in Asia Singapore 2% Korea 10% Indonesia 6% Other 14% India 15% India 38% China 53% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .1 140 77. Malay and Tamil Metric system 8 hours ahead of GMT Population | %-share in Asia Singapore 0.0 7.2% Korea Other 1. 2009 est.6 9 907 154 50% 12% 13% 13% 25% 14% Business Services 25% 28% 26% 0% Other Services 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 Net exports 2009 Government Consumption 0% Transportation (2009) Airports: Roadways (km): Chief Ports: Trade Structure 8 3.5m) 710 5. 2009 est. 2009 est.7 GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 2009 Manufacturing 27% 25% GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 75% Construction 5% 16% Wholesale & Retail Trade Financial Services 75% 4% 17% 50% Energy (2007) Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 2.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones . Chairman: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Sellapan Rama Nathan 17 August 2005 August 2011 Goh Chok Tong Exports Latin America 2% Other Asia 39% Imports China 12% Latin America 3% Other Asia 31% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating Aaa AAA AAA Outlook Stable Stable Stable Primary products | share in % Other 16% Other 14% Chemicals 6% Strengths Weaknesses Chemicals 12% Exports • High-level education system • High-tech and stable economy • Excellent infra-structure and communications • Low inflationary environment • Small domestic market • Dependence on external sector • Comparatively high labour costs • Lack of natural resources Mineral fuels 20% Machinery and equipment 52% Manufactur ed goods 7% Imports Machinery and equipment 48% Mineral fuels 25% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 89 .0 7.293 38.): Population density (per km2. English.023 3.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.

Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) and FocusEconomics calculations. A month-on-month comparison corroborates the deceleration suggested by the annual figures.5%.0 19. The figure halved the 23.1 Year-on-year Annual Average 50.0 7.4% in August to 29.538 3.0 24.0 -1.0 0. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate industrial production to grow 22. For next year.1% yoy).1% (August: +25.7 16. the panel sees average inflation rising to 1.2% this year and 4.00% expansion observed in August.2% this year. which is up 0. For 2011.5 32.0 31.2 -25.3% this year. the panel expects economic growth to moderate to 4.2 1. As a result of the monthly reading.6% in 2011.5 312 13.5 6. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 1.5 39.2%. as rising payrolls should buttress domestic demand.3% in September. • LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 22.6 • Joan Enric Domene Economist REAL SECTOR | Industrial production decelerates in September In September. In addition. which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. which had anticipated industrial output would grow 15. Finally.7 20. arguing that the economy was performing better than expected amid strong exports. gas and water supply added 0. which expanded 13.0 25.2% expansion in August to 22. the Central Bank lifted interest rates in September. In addition.2%.0 70. as industrial production contracted 2.3%.2% in 2011. The deceleration in September was mainly driven by slower growth in the manufacturing sector.0%.9 23.9 -4.5 7. However.0 % 2.5% in August to 0.7% expansion recorded in August (previously reported: +23.860 3. Source: Directorate-General of Budget. Even though inflation remains benign.2% over the same month last year.3 2005-09 23.452 5.4% year-on-year) and undershot market expectations.4 47.4% (August: +4. electricity. which contrasted the 1.9 1.8 23. which up 0.90% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms. annual average growth in industrial production stepped up from 28.0 32.7% in September. The government anticipates GDP to expand 8. exports remain robust but are decelerating amid a less favourable comparison base. mining and quarrying decelerated from a 30.4 -1.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Industrial Production | variation in % 75.2 percentage points over last month. For 2011.7 12. the trend in industrial production continues to point up. Inflation bounced back from minus 0.4 501 21. the panel sees economic growth moderating to 4. Consensus Forecast panellists broadly share this assessment and expect the economy to grow 8.0% yoy). industrial production expanded 12.3% this year.8 35.6 7.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to expand 8. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 90 .9% this year and to decelerate to 6.2 2010-14 23.0 380 16.8 0.FOCUSECONOMICS Taiwan November 2010 Taiwan Taiwan Outlook improves • Economic growth is likely to remain solid.

53 0. The increase was mainly due to the effects of the Typhoon Fanapi and the demand associated with the MidAutumn Festival. For 2011.84 0.2% this year.5 % 0.0 MONETARY SECTOR | Prices rise in September as thyphoon pushes food prices In September. which excludes volatile categories such as fresh food and energy. As a result of the monthly reading.5%.5 -2. Moreover.FOCUSECONOMICS Taiwan November 2010 Inflation | Consumer Price Index 2.7%. annual inflation bounced back from minus 0.4%.31 0.09 -0.66 -0. The government expects inflation to average 1.95 -1.0 -0. The reading came in above the 0.5% in August to plus 0. which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.02% price rise recorded in August and was broadly in line with market expectations. the panel expects average inflation to rise further to 1.0 % 0.0 3.16 1. Meanwhile.0 Jan Feb Note: Monthly and annual variation of consumer price index in %.3% in September.0 0.02 0.5 basis points to 1.10 0. Consensus Forecast panellists share this assessment and anticipate average inflation to rise to 1. remained unchanged over the previous month. 1. consumer prices added 0. The Central Bank raised the discount rate as expected at the last quarterly policy meeting on 30 September.2% this year. Source: Directorate-General of Budget.0 Sep Monthly (left scale) Oct Nov Dec Annual (right scale) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep -3.3% in August to 0. The Bank lifted the policy rate by 12.0 -1. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 91 . which together pushed up prices for food and commodities. the core inflation index.09% over the previous month. annual average inflation inched up from 0.46 -0. Accounting and Statistics and FocusEconomics calculations.4% in August to 0.34 0. arguing that the economy was performing better than expected amid strong exports and investment.76 -0.50%. annual core inflation rose from 0.41 0. However.

8 3.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .5 -1.4 446 17.7 Q2 11 3. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.6 -1.47 31.2 1.02 -0.7 109 18.8 3.9 2.33 30.8 50.7 -0.8 32.98 30.2 0.7 0. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.8 Q4 09 9.2 24.4 47.8 11.4 22.1 4.456 376 5.2 4.5 2.2 32.53 2.8 35.3 98 21.5 7.495 576 4.8 8. eop) Stock Market (variation of TAIEX in %) Exchange Rate (TWD per USD.8 7. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.8 15.6 4.38 8.3 3.1 4.7 -4.0 1.4 2.914 537 4.3 1.4 9.3 24.1 -2.1 1.3 6.4 103 19.6 Q3 09 -1.2 82 21.95 1.16 0.8 3.3 Mar-10 39.5 5.3 32.6 2. annual variation in %) Inflation (WPI.6 35.932 464 4.3 349 325 8.8 22.1 1.3 31.347 398 6.5 1.7 6.3 -1.9 -0.4 2.1 1.3 19.7 3.3 32.8 Taiwan November 2010 2007 23.3 1.7 497 16.5 2.4 22.2 57.6 4.48 29.10 0.8 2.38 32.3 32.4 3.4 1.2 -26.25 6. eop) Exports (annual variation in %) 2005 22.7 0.00 -41. annual var.9 5.0 26.4 32.34 1.0 32.8 5.1 32.8 -0.2 0. annual average variation in %) Inflation (Core.4 0.02 30.3 1.4 30.775 388 -1.8 7.5 18.25 65.2 381 19.9 33.1 1.1 17.0 2.11 30. eop) Monthly Data Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.59 31.8 Feb-10 35.3 2.7 32.5 198 179 8.0 5.0 86 22.2 1.7 2.9 1.0 17.2 8.5 2011 23.8 322 299 10.5 32.1 9.1 31.4 8.1 26.2 1. in %) Private Consumption (annual var.0 7.7 32.8 3.5 36.5 5.6 410 18.5 39.0 -4.5 266 16.8 90 23.8 -0.484 353 4.0 7.9 89 17.6 203 173 -20.1 -0.6 8. annual variation in %) CB Discount Rate (%.9 348 24.0 46.1 42.5 7.4 1.5 2013 23.2 224 200 12.7 4.7 47.2 5.6 Q2 10 12.98 30.84 1.2 0.9 Q4 11 6.0 32.3 270 15.2 27.1 Q3 11 4.4 247 216 10.1 -9.1 5.0 16.75 19.5 37.3 4.31 1.7 3.8 30.2 1.1 27.2 -1.0 -0.7 5.6 1.6 6. average) External Sector Current Account (% of GDP) Current Account (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.4 21.5 1.7 2010 23.0 6.8 -0.95 30.59 31.9 Jun-10 24.5 Aug-10 23.3 17.3 0.5 1.464 502 4.09 0.1 Q3 10 7.3 34.1 2009 23.25 31.6 1.5 255 236 3.2 22.0 92 21.7 5.630 383 0.1 5.2 2.0 5. annual average variation in %) CB Discount Rate (%.6 32.6 7.0 381 357 9.6 8.6 2014 23.3 31.7 -0.8 5.1 2.6 -2.5 11.9 0.25 32.0 -1.8 2006 22.9 -0.1 7.1 May-10 31.9 5.6 7.0 75.8 11.3 5.1 30.9 30.6 0.4 24.80 30.0 21.0 Q1 11 2.5 24. eop) Exchange Rate (TWD per USD.5 32.8 1.1 6.7 -0.8 3.2 -0.25 32.8 2.1 2012 23.7 5. in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.6 2008 23.4 1.8 265 241 30.3 1.7 472 17.9 2.0 5.8 0.5 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 92 .6 0.2 30.0 87 24.9 1.8 1.452 428 8.2 0.3 4.9 16.2 18.5 -11.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.2 3. eop) Exchange Rate (TWD per USD.1 16.2 32.46 -0.3 11.1 0.5 Q4 10 3.1 15.4 8.8 6.3 1.1 1.0 17.2 Dec-09 47.9 33.3 Apr-10 32. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (TWD per USD.5 1.4 32.0 -1.6 19.7 32.9 2.7 Jul-10 20.0 Jan-10 70.5 0. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1A in %) Inflation (CPI.7 Q1 10 13.4 Sep-10 12.7 2.7 4.5 253 17.6 6.0 95 23.1 38.3 3. annual var.8 -8.5 29.2 1.4 292 14.9 4.2 30.3 31.5 32. % of active population) Inflation (CPI.6 -11.2 2.7 23.2 291 268 9.

1 3. See below for details.9 3.5 8. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Polaris Securities Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts DGBAS (Aug. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 GDP. 13 Unemployment. 2010) 2010 6.7 8.1 5.9 8. annual variation in %. 6 Gross fixed investment.2 4.2 4. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 4.0 6 15 3 0 Notes and sources 0 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) -3 1995 2000 2005 2010 -30 1995 2000 2005 2010 -15 General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.1 3. 9 Industrial production. 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 4 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 20 2010 2011 15 3 10 2 5 2010 2011 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 93 .1 4. 10 Unemployment.5 4. % of GDP. Source: National Statistics. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted).1 8.2014 | % variation 12 Taiwan November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 20 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) World Real GDP growth in % 6 10 0 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) World 2000 2005 2010 0 -6 1995 -10 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 12 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 7 Maximum Consensus Minimum 9 6 5 6 4 3 3 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 9 6 | Investment | % variation 30 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Chung-Hua Institute Citigroup Global Markets Inc.7 7.2 4. annual variation in %.3 8. Source: National Statistics. 14 Balance of central and local government.6 4. year-on-year variation in %. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 GDP. 11 Balance of central and local government.7 4.4 4. annual variation in %.2 9. Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and National Statistics.1 8.3 4. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.8 3.3 8.8 8. % of active population. 12 Industrial production. 8 Gross fixed investment.1 3. 5 Private consumption. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 7 Private consumption.2 9.3 6.6 3.0 9. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 .1 4. 2010) ADB (Sep. Source: DGBAS.5 6.9 9. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.6 4.0 4.2 4.9 8.8 9.4 4.9 4.2 8.8 4. 3 GDP. All real sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget.3 7. Source: National Statistics.5 6. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 2011 5.9 8.0 7. Source: DGBAS. annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.1 7. 2010) IMF (Oct.5 8.4 9. Source: DGBAS.2 4.

6 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 4 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) World 0 5 4 3 0 2 Taiwan -15 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 1995 Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 25 2010 2011 20 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 7 2010 2011 6 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -1 2010 2011 -2 15 5 10 -3 5 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 94 .9 3.6 16.8 23.9 5.9 22.3 2.7 2.3 6.1 7.6 4. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Polaris Securities Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Investment % variation 2010 2011 22.3 -2.4 5.0 15.0 4.6 2.0 -1.2 8.0 4.7 4.8 2.2 5.4 Taiwan November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Chung-Hua Institute Citigroup Global Markets Inc.9 7.1 0.7 -2.2 4.6 22.8 -2.7 7.5 16.9 -2.2 -1.6 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -4.2 4.5 5.9 -2.0 2.7 -2.6 4.5 22.9 2.1 5.5 -3.0 -2.4 14.0 4.8 -3.8 5.4 5.1 2.5 15.7 2.9 Unemployment % of active pop.4 -3.0 2.7 -1.9 5. 2010 2011 5.7 2.8 4.4 18.1 4.6 4.5 0.6 21.1 25.2 6.1 4.5 15.0 5.0 2.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Consumption % variation 2010 2011 3.5 2.9 2.0 5.9 2.0 26.0 4.3 9 | Industry | % variation 30 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) 15 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.2 19.5 4.5 3.1 3.5 2.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.7 Industry % variation 2010 2011 26.9 -4.4 -1.9 3.7 19.0 5.9 3.6 -1.1 4.2 4.2 5.6 5.0 4.2 -2.4 -2.1 -2.1 17.6 17.1 2.4 -2.4 2.3 -2.7 5.6 8.7 19.5 2.0 3.9 -2.2 -2.0 5.8 -3.6 5.6 2.5 -2.0 4.2 14.9 2.1 5.0 5.6 -3.9 5.8 6.2 7.4 2.3 4.0 8.9 2.2 -2.1 5.0 -2.0 -1.2 2.2 6.8 8.2 5.9 6.5 8.2 17.1 5.0 24.5 5.5 4.3 5.6 4.9 -3.7 5.0 5.9 21.1 4.0 24.3 13.5 -1.

2008 until end of previous month.6 1. 16 Quarterly inflation.9 0. of consumer price index in % 3 0 0 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) -3 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 3 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 3 1 2 0 1 -1 -2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Maximum Consensus Minimum Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Core and Wholesale Prices | % var.1 1.9 1. average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 1. 2010) ADB (Sep.9 1. 20 Money.6 2. var.3 1. TAIEX. Source: DGBAS. Source: DGBAS.8 1. 1995-2009.5 1.000 100 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 4. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 1.2014 | in % 12 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) 9 5 6 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 10 Inflation | annual avg.4 1.6 5 20 0 10 -5 0 -10 1995 2000 2005 -10 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.2 1.9 0.3 1. 18 Inflation.9 2. Money.7 0. 2010) IMF (Oct. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Polaris Securities Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts DGBAS (Aug.5 2011 1. See below for details. 22 Daily index levels.6 1.6 1. Source: Taiwan Stock Exchange.5 2.6 1.000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 95 . Source: Central Bank.5 1. 2010) 2010 1.2 1.5 1.2 1. 15 Inflation.0 0. 21 | MSCI Price Index 400 22 | Stock Market | TAIEX 10.6 1. 10 Core Price Index WPI 20 | Money | % variation 30 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Chung-Hua Institute Citigroup Global Markets Inc.9 0.2 1.0 1. 19 Core and wholesale price indices. 2008 until end of previous month.2 0. annual variation of M1 in %.6 1.2 0.0 1. Source: MSCI Barra.3 1.000 200 6.5 0.8 1. From Jan. 17 Inflation.2 1.2 1.3 1.9 1. Jan. Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the Republic of China.3 0.5 1.5 1. 21 Daily MSCI index in USD.5 1. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %.4 1.5 0. 19952009.4 1. Wholesale Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 .0 1.6 2. All monetary sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget. Source: DGBAS.8 1.000 300 8. annual variation in % (eop).0 1.FOCUSECONOMICS Taiwan November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.

FOCUSECONOMICS
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in %
6

Taiwan

November 2010

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in %
4

Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

4

3

2

2

0 1995 2000 2005 2010

1 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst
3 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2

26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst
3 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2

1

1

0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Chung-Hua Institute Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Polaris Securities Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago

Interest Rate Exchange Rate % TWD per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 1.63 2.13 32.0 31.0 1.50 1.75 30.5 31.0 30.9 30.6 31.6 30.5 1.63 2.38 31.2 30.5 1.50 2.00 31.3 30.6 1.75 30.8 1.38 1.88 30.8 30.5 30.3 29.5 1.50 1.75 31.2 30.4 1.63 2.00 30.3 30.0 1.50 1.75 31.2 30.5 1.63 2.13 30.8 29.6 1.63 2.00 32.0 31.0 1.75 31.8 1.38 1.75 1.63 1.59 1.62 1.64 1.64 1.75 2.38 2.00 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.00 30.3 32.0 31.2 31.1 31.5 31.5 31.6 29.5 31.0 30.5 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.7

27 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD
40

28 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD
35

35

33

30

31

Notes and sources
General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the Republic of China. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Borrowing Rate in % (eop). Source: Central Bank. 24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Borrowing Rate in % (eop). Source: Central Bank. 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 27 Exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Central Bank. 28 Quarterly exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Central Bank. 29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months. 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: Central Bank. 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Central Bank. 33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: Central Bank. 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Central Bank. 36 External debt as % GDP. Source: Central Bank.

25 1995 2000 2005 2010

29 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

29 | TWD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst
40 Maximum Consensus Minimum 35

30 | TWD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
36 Maximum Consensus Minimum

32

30

28

25 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

24 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 96

FOCUSECONOMICS

Taiwan

November 2010

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves
Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 45.2 47.1 34.8 31.0 33.8 28.3 34.3 34.8 38.0 26.0 38.7 27.6 43.5 36.5 28.7 50.0 48.0 33.1 35.0 26.1 24.1 31.3 32.7 31.6 29.1 40.3 29.8 26.3 31.2 26.1 50.0 34.8 36.2 35.6 33.6 33.3 24.1 48.0 30.4 32.4 33.1 32.8 32.3 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 19.3 18.0 13.4 9.2 26.2 23.9 26.8 26.6 25.0 23.0 24.8 17.7 27.9 26.1 33.0 31.0 24.7 25.8 23.5 17.9 27.9 24.8 13.4 33.0 25.0 24.8 24.7 23.0 23.6 9.2 31.0 23.9 22.2 23.2 21.1 22.3 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 265 304 265 277 292 331 258 286 275 296 276 304 264 286 234 262 246 282 271 279 274 290 234 292 265 265 265 241 262 262 331 286 291 292 265 289 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 246 286 251 268 265 307 231 260 250 273 251 286 236 260 201 231 221 256 248 261 246 265 201 265 246 241 241 218 238 231 307 265 268 268 244 267 Int. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 380 405 388 417 382 414 380 405 399 435 386 421 345 355 388 430 345 399 384 381 379 376 376 355 435 416 410 407 405 405

Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics Chung-Hua Institute Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Morgan Stanley Polaris Securities Standard Chartered Bank UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago

31 | Current Account | % of GDP
15 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) 10

32 | Trade Balance | USD billion
400 Trade Balance Exports Imports

33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
25 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan) 20

300

5

200

15

0

100

10

-5 1995 2000 2005 2010

0 1995 2000 2005 2010

5 1995 2000 2005 2010

34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
40 2010 2011 35

35 | Exports | annual variation in %
40

36 | External Debt | % of GDP
60 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan)

20 40 0

30

20 -20 Taiwan Asia (ex Japan)

25 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

-40 1995 2000 2005 2010

0 1995 2000 2005 2010

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 97

FOCUSECONOMICS
Fact Sheet
General Data

Taiwan

November 2010

Taiwan in the Region
Population | %-share in Asia
Taiwan 1% Korea 2% Indonesia 7% China 43% India 15% Other 9% Korea 10% Indonesia 6%

Taiwan / Republic of China Capital: Taipei (2.6 m) Other cities: Kaohsiung (1.5 m) Taichung (1.1 m) Tainan (0.8 m) Area (km2): 35,980 Population (million, 2009 est.): 23.0 640 Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 0.2 Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 78.0 Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 3.9 Language: Mandarin Chinese and Taiwanese Measures: Metric system Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT
Economic Infrastructure

Official name:

GDP | %-share in Asia
Taiwan 4% Other 12%

India 38%

China 53%

Economic Structure

Telecommunication (2009) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Chief Ports:

63.2 117 69.8 21.6

GDP by Sector | share in %
100% 2004
1.9 22.5

GDP by Expenditure | share in %
100%

2009
1.5 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Manufacturing

26.6

75%

75%
17.9 18.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance and Insurance

50%

479 4,746 225 215 12 962 308

50%

7.6 6.7 8.4 8.6 8.8

25%

Real Estate 7.2 Public Administration and Defense 31.0 Other

0%

25%
33.0

-25% 2003 Private Consumption Net exports 2005 2007 Investment 2009 Government Consumption

0%

42 1,582 41,279 Chilung, Hualien, Kaohsiung

Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Asia (exChina) 41%

Asia (exChina) 41% Other 25%

Political Data

President: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank President:
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Ma Ying-jeou 22 March 2008 March 2012 Perng Fai-nan

Other 10%

Exports
EU-27 10% United States 12%

Imports

Mainland China 27%

EU-27 9%

United States 11%

Mainland China 14%

Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings:

Rating Aa3 AAA+

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

Primary products | share in %
Other 1% Capital goods 15% Consumer goods 9%

NonHeavy Industries 16%

Strengths

Weaknesses

Exports

Imports

• Well educated labour force • Strong legal system • Open market economy

• Limited natural resources • Risk of armed conflict with China • Lack of representation in international organisations
Heavy Industries 83% Raw Materials 76%

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

| 98

7 2005-09 65.0 % 0.61% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms.3% in August.12 -1. Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT) and FocusEconomics calculations.a.0% in September from 3.1 374 5. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 99 .2 134 2.3 3.5% this year. Consensus Forecast participants revised their 2010 growth projections upwards and now expect the economy to grow 7. The Central Bank has recently revised its growth forecast amid clear signs of robust fundamentals and now expects the economy to expand between 6.2 233 3. which was larger than the 1.4% this year. the panel expects inflation to fall to 3.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. which came in below the 13.8% this year.71 -4.71% contraction recorded in July.2% expansion recorded in July.4 -2. Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to average 3. expanding 11. as the currency continues to appreciate and external demand slumps.6%. as manufacturing production declined 3.148 5. which is up 0.0 -5.4 3.77 10.6 • Ricardo Aceves Economist REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing production slows in August In August.8 20.0 MoM s.4%.7% yoy).30 9.0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Note: Annual average and seasonally adjusted month-on-month variation of manufacturing production index in %. Meanwhile. Despite the softer growth in August.5% and 7. returning to singledigit growth for the first time in eight months. resilient export growth may fade.61 -10. the Finance Ministry expects the economy to expand 7.0 -0.30 1.476 5. Inflation fell to 3.0 2.0 6. prompting the Central Bank to pause the monetary tightening cycle in its 20 October meeting.09 20.1%.22 5. The reading represented a return to single-digit growth in manufacturing output after eight consecutive months of double-digit growth. manufacture of radio.7% over the same month the previous year. In 2011. industrial manufacturing expanded 8.1 1. which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.0 -1. A month-on-month analysis confirms the deterioration suggested by annual figures. the trend continued to improve. August: -4. The main drivers behind August’s deceleration were a sharp fall in communication and equipment apparatus production (July: +5. which would represent the fastest pace since 1995.7% in August. In 2011.568 3. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate manufacturing production to rise 15.2 47. Manufacturing data come from a new series introduced in August.0 % 0.3% this year. Moreover.25 1.4% this year. television and communication equipment halved the 23.0 -6. replacing the old manufacturing production index (MPI) series. as the annual average growth in manufacturing output rose from 14. • LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (US$): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 62.FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand November 2010 Thailand Thailand Outlook improves • Industrial manufacturing increased 8.43 -10.01 -0.1 -1.36 -3.0 5.2 2. (left scale) Annual Average (right scale) Apr May Jun Jul Aug -20.0 -2. despite the political clashes between the government and the redshirted protesters during April and May.1% observed in July. the panel sees economic growth moderating to 4.7% in July to 16. In addition.7 4.4%.8 2010-14 68. Manufacturing Production | variation in % 10.3 26.8% year-on-year.36 4.

28 0.2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) Apr May Jun Jul -0. Core inflation. which will adversely affect Thai exports amid lower external demand. annual core inflation inched down from 1. which is up 0.75% in a decision widely expected by the market.0 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Note: One-Day Repurchase Rate. Consensus Forecast panellists expect monetary authorities to rise the one-day repurchase rate to 2. For 2011. remained unchanged over the previous month.2% in August to 1. Monetary authorities argued that the recovery in the world economy continues.3% in August to 3.8% this year. monetary authorities expect headline inflation to stay within a range of 2.still remaining “fragile” due to risks stemming from high unemployment and faltering domestic demand.0% in September. participants expect economic growth to pick up to 4.0 -6.5% and 4.4% this year.00%.28 0. Consensus Forecast panellists estimate average inflation rising to 3.1%).0 0. BoT Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan added that the economy is expected to grow mainly as a result of strong domestic demand but inflationary pressures are expected to remain at bay. MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged At its 20 October monetary policy meeting. In 2011. as government subsidies helped containing inflationary pressures. and Japan .S. which is based on quarterly average core inflation (the current quarterly average is 1.5% and 3.01% by end-2010.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. as annual average inflation rose from 2.3% by the end of the year. That said.57 0. which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus Forecast. The monthly fall reflected declining prices for transport and communication as well as for energy. the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to leave the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.0 % -3. Nevertheless.FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand November 2010 Consensus Forecast participants anticipate the economy to expand 7. the panel expects the monetary policy rate to average 2. inflation remains within the Central Bank’s target range of 0. which had inflation remaining stable at 3. undershooting market expectations. The decision follows on two straights 25 basis-points’ increases in July and August. panellists anticipate that average inflation will moderate to 3. which excludes fresh food and energy prices.1% in September. inflation is projected to average within a range of 2. As a result.such as the U.09% over the previous month.09 0. the inflation trend continues to point upwards. which marked the highest level since April 2009. Inflation | Consumer Price Index 0. For 2011.09 -0.5% .0 As a result of September’s reading.56 0. In its last July inflation report. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 1 December. European economies continue to face the challenge of tightening budgets in the year ahead.19 0.0 3.09 0.5%. Against this backdrop.4 0. consumer prices slipped 0. albeit at a slower pace.19 0. at the current level. annual headline inflation moderated from 3. Next year.56 6.0% in September. with large economies . 0.1%.28 3.19 0. in %. with an average of 2. Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT).0 Aug Sep Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. One-Day Repurchase Rate | in % 4.28% increase observed in August. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 100 .4%. In addition.0 1.2 % 0. which contrasted the 0. Source: Bureau of Trade and Economics.0 -0.7% in August to 3.3%. The reading marked the first monthly drop observed this year.6 0.19 0.0 % 2.0%. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls in September In September.3.75%.

S. at the current level.3 billion) per month until the end of the year if the baht remains at its current level. Exchange Rate | THB per USD 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Note: Daily spot and 30-day moving average of Thai baht (THB) against U. Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai stated that the strong baht caused around THB 70 billion (USD 2.7% versus the USD this year and.3 billion) losses in exports in September alone.6 Thai baht (THB) per USD. Source: Bank of Thailand and FocusEconomics calculations. The October appreciation continues the almost uninterrupted trend observed since June. The baht has gained an accumulated 11. Nevertheless. Porntiva estimates that the strong currency may hurt overseas sales by as much as THB 40 billion (USD 1. is trading 12. with the exchange rate reaching 30. exports rose 21.7% in nominal terms over the previous month to reach 29. which has prompted the Finance Ministry to remove a 15% withholding-tax exemption for foreign investors on interest payments and capital gains from government bonds. the strongest level since the peak observed in March 2009. In addition.0% stronger than the same month last year. Despite the persistent appreciation. the exchange rate appreciated 2. The upward movement has been gaining momentum in recent weeks. The measure went into effect on 13 October. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 101 .2% annually to a record USD 18. dollar (USD). as well as bonds issued by the Central Bank.5 baht to the USD. Consensus Forecast participants expect the currency to depreciate further by the end of the year.FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand November 2010 EXCHANGE RATE | Baht rises to the highest level in 19 months By 22 October.1 billion in September.

6 2.8 7.2 3.6 3.0 3.6 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 102 .2 -1.6 2012 68.9 10.75 30.3 -3.6 Jun-10 14.0 26.6 -8.1 87 7.3 9.0 4.6 Q3 10 6.1 -2.8 Q4 09 5.1 33.01 30.1 2.3 9.1 2.5 2.84 30.2 11.9 1.1 -9.7 9.25 63.0 Q1 10 12.7 11.9 3.7 0.6 Q4 11 5.5 201 193 9.2 2.2 37.7 19.4 32.6 6.0 32.56 3.5 -0.4 1.972 264 -2.98 30.9 0.0 Q2 10 9.7 2011 67.135 272 2.5 2006 64.9 -24.0 3.5 1.00 6.2 Jan-10 29.8 1.5 33.3 6.8 4.8 Jul-10 13.7 36.7 25.784 247 4. annual variation in %) 1-day Repurchase Rate (%.1 -1.0 0.0 3.1 30.5 2.8 4.5 2.5 32.57 4.7 2.7 1.5 -4.3 Aug-10 8.6 65.3 1.5 8.6 3.6 Q1 11 2.9 -0.5 3.6 1. ann.0 184 174 22.8 20.4 1.2014 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.25 26.3 Thailand November 2010 2007 65. annual average variation in %) Inflation (Core.5 9. variation in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.5 32.9 7.3 2.1 0.2 4. in %) Inflation (CPI.6 3.9 4.0 5.6 4.8 71.7 5.8 52 5.7 3.6 61.4 2.0 Sep-10 -0.5 Q3 09 -2.3 8. var.1 196 10.0 128 127 17.8 -0.3 -7.0 3.8 1.7 1.3 7.0 5.2 0.3 52.3 1.5 10.4 0.5 34.6 1.4 15. mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI.00 -4.9 21.32 30. eop) Stock Market (SET variation in %) Exchange Rate (THB per USD.4 253 232 11.1 275 253 8.202 207 5.1 7.3 3.6 3.4 4.1 20.0 29.5 12.1 81.9 1.4 28.0 2.1 4.2 33.1 1.8 26.2 2008 65.28 3.2 1.7 -2.4 -1. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP. in %) Fixed Investment (ann.1 2.5 5.2 24.7 3. var.1 1.9 85.75 -47.3 1.7 0.3 31.3 1.0 3.3 Mar-10 33.6 0.2 3. ann.3 -4.6 1.1 6.3 158 10.3 -3.75 30.1 25.9 1. annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (THB per USD.3 32.0 3.6 70.0 3.9 6.0 2.111 345 4.6 6.1 5.09 3.8 Dec-09 30.4 4.8 30.19 3.1 173 10.4 151 131 -13. var.7 1.522 376 4. annual variation in %) Inflation (PPI. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.09 3.2 -1.0 Q4 10 3.4 2010 66.01 30.0 3.9 0.3 2.2 40.75 30.6 10.1 27.9 1.56 3.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2005 .1 33.1 0.1 3.7 20.5 4.9 69.9 138 12.921 407 5.0 -5. eop) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Monthly Data Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.09 3.7 9. annual average variation in %) 1-day Repurchase Rate (%.0 6.3 30.17 29.5 2.4 3.6 2.1 0. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann.5 9.2 1.8 12.0 30. var.1 Q3 11 5.9 67 6.3 20. in %) Private Consumption (ann.2 199 11. eop) Exchange Rate (THB per USD.6 150 138 17. of M1 in %) Inflation (CPI.2 7.9 3.2 25.1 30.8 3.16 30.5 3.9 34.1 3.5 7.4 0.3 59.0 7.550 305 7.8 3.5 2009 66.9 Q2 11 4.2 74.1 15.7 26.5 2.6 2.9 13.3 3.6 28.8 1.2 2.6 35.2 175 175 16.28 3.25 32.4 2014 69.275 435 5.3 -2.9 23. eop) 2005 64.1 187 8.25 32.5 5.6 2.4 5.1 3.9 4.7 9.7 1.25 33. eop) Exchange Rate (THB per USD.4 2013 68.7 10.5 4.4 -1.43 30.7 33.1 6.1 2.3 19.6 10.749 176 4.0 2.6 8.3 109 118 15.2 1.0 Apr-10 23.3 1.9 2.6 28.6 1.9 10.2 33.8 May-10 15.4 32.8 7.2 5.1 11.19 3.4 111 7.0 32.1 41.7 1.3 Feb-10 31.4 3.25 33.1 19.3 226 213 12.

3 5.5-7. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kasikorn Research Center Ktzmico Morgan Stanley Phatra Securities Standard Chartered Bank TISCO Securities UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (July 2010) IMF (Oct.4 8.4 3.2 4. 14 Balance of the central government. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.3 4.4 4.0 3. 7 Private consumption.4 4.8 3. 10 Unemployment.2 5. annual variation in %. 9 Industrial production.5 4.8 8. year-on-year variation in %.0 7.5 4.7 6.4 7. 4 GDP. 2010) ADB (Sep.0 2011 4.1 9. 6 Gross fixed investment.5 7.5 4.0 4.5 4.7 5.2014 | % variation 10 Thailand November 2010 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation 20 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) World 10 Real GDP growth in % 5 0 -5 0 -10 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) World 2000 2005 2010 -15 1995 -10 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 10 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 Maximum Consensus Minimum 0 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 5 | Consumption | % variation 10 6 | Investment | % variation 25 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics CIMB Thai Bank Citigroup Global Markets Inc. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 Private consumption.FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product 1 | Real GDP | 1995 . change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 5.4 8.8 6.9 7.0 7.0-5.4 4. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.0 4.5 7.0 4.0 4.3 8. annual variation in %.6 7. 1 GDP.3 7. See below for details.2 5.9 7.5 4. 11 Balance of central government. 13 Unemployment.7 3.0 4.4 7. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 7.5 7.5 8. 2010) 2010 7.0 3.2 6. annual variation in %.5 4.0 5. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. annual variation in %. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 8 Gross fixed investment. 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 5 2010 2011 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 12 2010 2011 10 4 8 3 6 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 103 .0 7.6 6. 3 GDP.5 5 0 0 -5 -25 -10 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) -15 1995 2000 2005 2010 -50 1995 2000 2005 2010 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted).5 4.0 7. % of GDP.0 6.6 9. % of active population.0 4. All real sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT).5 5. 12 Industrial production.4 4.3 4.

3 Industry % variation 2010 2011 13.7 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2010 2011 -5.5 -1.5 5.7 3.6 7.8 5.8 5.7 7.2 -3.9 3.0 14.4 2.7 -2. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kasikorn Research Center Ktzmico Morgan Stanley Phatra Securities Standard Chartered Bank TISCO Securities UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Consumption % variation 2010 2011 5.4 15.6 5.5 7.6 -4.0 -1.5 5.4 -3.6 3.9 8.9 8.7 3.0 -4.4 3.6 -3.3 8.6 18.3 -1.8 5.2 4.8 20.6 13.7 6.7 Investment % variation 2010 2011 12.5 -4.4 9 | Industry | % variation 20 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.9 -3.2 8.1 12.6 5.3 5.3 12.5 -5.2 3.6 8.5 4.0 -2.7 3.7 3.2 6.5 5.5 15.7 6. 5 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 4 4 10 3 0 2 0 1 Thailand -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1995 Asia (ex Japan) 2000 2005 2010 -8 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) World 12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 16 2010 2011 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 4 2010 2011 3 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -2 -3 12 2 8 1 -5 2010 2011 4 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -4 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 104 .FOCUSECONOMICS Real Sector | Additional forecasts Thailand November 2010 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics CIMB Thai Bank Citigroup Global Markets Inc.0 -3.5 4.8 4.1 4.0 -3.2 -3.0 -3.9 4.3 10.8 -3.0 9.0 14.3 4.0 10.3 -3.0 3.0 4.8 6.6 10.5 -3.7 4.3 5.9 10.3 10.1 13.2 -4.9 6.6 2.6 10.4 10.0 6.1 -3.9 5.0 -3.0 14.0 -3.0 3.0 23.0 3.7 4.8 12.7 5.0 -0.6 -3.0 6.8 3.0 -3.5 3.6 3.2 9.1 -3.1 10.0 6.5 14.0 5.9 23.5 4.1 9.5 -3.0 3.8 4.2 -3.0 -1.0 5.4 10.0 -3.5 6.5 7.1 8.2 -3.4 3.6 -3.0 6.1 4.4 -2.0 7.3 7.1 -0.0 6.3 12.0 7.6 -1.8 -4.8 -1.0 -1.5 4.2 6.1 -4.0 10.5 -3.1 6.6 -1.6 -3.

5-4.0 4. Source: BTE.5 3. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.5 2.4 3.5 3.2014 | in % 12 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) 8 6 4 0 0 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 12 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) Inflation | annual avg. year-on-year variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kasikorn Research Center Ktzmico Morgan Stanley Phatra Securities Standard Chartered Bank TISCO Securities UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (July 2010) IMF (Oct. 20 Money.7 3. 22 Monthly index levels.4 2.3 3.4 3. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. 19 Core and producer price indices.1 2.0 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.5 3. 15 Inflation.7 2.1 4.5 3. All monetary sector data are from the Bureau of Trade and Economics (BTE) and the Bank of Thailand (BoT).5 3. 15 Core Price Index PPI 10 20 | Money | % variation 40 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics CIMB Thai Bank Citigroup Global Markets Inc. January 2005 until the end of previous month.5 3. 18 Inflation. 17 Inflation.3 4. 20042009 Source: BTE.0 3.0 2. Source: BoT.2 2.0 30 20 5 10 0 0 -5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -10 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.4 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.7 3.000 5 800 4 600 3 400 2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 200 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 105 .7 3.5-3.FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand November 2010 Monetary Sector | Inflation.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.1 3. Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand.8 4.4 3. SET Index. Money. annual variation in % (eop). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 2010) 2010 3.3 3.6 2. 2010) ADB (Sep.0 1.4 3. annual variation of M1 in %. January 2000 until end of previous month.0 3.2 2011 3.3 3.2 3.5 1.1 3. 1995-2009 Source: BoT.0 2.4 2. of consumer price index in % -4 1995 2000 2005 2010 -6 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 8 Maximum Consensus Minimum 6 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst 5 Maximum Consensus Minimum 4 4 3 2 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var.4 3. 21 10-Year Bond Yield. 16 Quarterly inflation. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 3.8 3. var. Source: BTE.5 3.2 3. Producer Prices and Stock Market 15 | Inflation | 1995 . See below for details.3 3. 21 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in % 6 22 | Stock Market | SET Index 1.

65 2.00 29.5 30.0 30.00 3.5 2.7 1.51 29. 30 Exchange rate.00 2.50 29. 33 International reserves.8 29.0 30.75 2.9 2. annual variation in %.0 29. 23 Interest rate.00 30.60 2.5 30.0 1. 28 Quarterly exchange rate.00 29.3 2. 1-Day Repurchase Rate in % (eop).75 30.0 2.5 2.3 30.75 2.00 32.00 2. 29 | THB/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 40 Maximum Consensus Minimum 30 | THB/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 40 Maximum Consensus Minimum 35 35 30 30 25 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 25 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 106 . 36 External debt as % of GDP.5 31.. evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.5 30.75 31. 24 Quarterly interest rate.00 1. imports and exports.5 2.75 2. months of imports.00 2.00 29.0 32.2 31.88 2. All monetary and external sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT).88 2.8 1.5 32.5 29. 34 Current account in USD bn.01 2. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP.FOCUSECONOMICS Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate 23 | Interest Rate | 1995 .7 31. 32 Trade balance. evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 3.8 31.75 2.50 29.1 30.5 29.25 30.50 29. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 27 Exchange rate.0 30.4 31.5 32.0 28.0 29.5 31. THB per USD (eop). 29 Exchange rate.2014 | in % 15 Thailand November 2010 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % 6 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % THB per USD 2010 2011 2010 2011 2.00 2.75 2.0 1.25 3. 1-Day Repurchase Rate in % (eop).75 2. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.75 3.3 31. evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.00 32.06 2.2 28.0 28. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 26 | Int.5 2.00 30.3 10 4 5 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 25 | Int.9 29.75 30.00 31.9 31.00 30.2 30. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kasikorn Research Center Ktzmico Morgan Stanley Phatra Securities Standard Chartered Bank TISCO Securities UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 40 34 30 32 20 1995 2000 2005 2010 30 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated.00 2.2 2. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst 5 Maximum Consensus Minimum 3 4 2 3 1 2 0 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 27 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD 50 28 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD 36 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics CIMB Thai Bank Citigroup Global Markets Inc.75 3.8 32.8 2.3 30. 25 Interest rate.0 32.7 28.00 3.8 31.4 29.00 3. 26 Interest rate. evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. THB per USD (eop).0 2.25 3.00 3. in USD bn.00 2.0 1.75 2. 35 Exports.3 1.6 2.75 31.

0 5.0 8.7 14.9 9.7 10.3 11. Reserves USD bn 2010 2011 160 167 149 159 171 198 157 169 159 180 158 187 146 151 170 180 153 169 146 171 158 158 153 154 154 151 198 169 173 166 167 165 Individual Forecasts ANZ Capital Economics CIMB Thai Bank Citigroup Global Markets Inc.4 10.4 5.5 13.4 10.9 17.2 9.6 17.1 12.0 3.9 7.5 10.FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand November 2010 External Sector | Current Account.3 Exports USD bn 2010 2011 196 230 189 203 178 193 189 211 191 208 189 204 174 186 184 201 161 181 188 203 171 194 186 200 189 203 194 195 161 196 188 184 182 181 179 181 230 202 201 198 198 197 Imports USD bn 2010 2011 185 223 181 200 167 184 177 200 177 200 180 200 165 176 173 185 155 178 177 197 164 191 174 195 177 197 183 181 155 185 177 174 172 170 169 176 223 196 193 191 189 188 Int. Reserves | months of imports 20 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) 15 200 10 100 0 0 10 -10 1995 2000 2005 2010 -100 1995 2000 2005 2010 5 1995 2000 2005 2010 34 | Current Account | evol.3 18.8 2.5 7.1 10.5 16.7 7.5 9.1 9.4 11.0 12.7 5.3 6.5 9.5 13.0 10.7 7.0 14.9 12.7 10.4 11.0 7.4 8.8 6.8 5.3 7.2 3.8 6.5 7.4 5.5 11.2 14.1 7.4 16.4 14.0 6.8 7.0 2.1 9.6 3.0 9.8 10.4 15.2 10.4 10.5 7.0 10.8 12.1 9.2 Trade Balance USD bn 2010 2011 10. of fcst 14 2010 2011 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 30 36 | External Debt | % of GDP 100 15 10 75 0 6 50 -15 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) 2 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 25 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) 0 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 -30 1995 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 107 . Trade and International Reserves Current Account USD bn 2010 2011 9.5 9.1 5.7 13.0 4.1 7.2 2.0 10.1 18.7 10.0 7.9 10.0 10.0 9.1 4. Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets DBS Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Kasikorn Research Center Ktzmico Morgan Stanley Phatra Securities Standard Chartered Bank TISCO Securities UBS United Overseas Bank Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago 31 | Current Account | % of GDP 20 Thailand Asia (ex Japan) 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 300 Trade Balance Exports Imports 33 | Int.4 9.1 11.4 13.5 8.7 11.0 9.9 10.

4 m) 514. 9% Other: 40% Raw Materials and intermediate goods: 31% Imports Capital goods 21% • Sound economic policy • Diversified trade structure • Competitive tourism industry • Weak communications and information technology • Profund political divisions • Financial system vulnerability High Tech prod.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.1 7.6 25.3 Thai.000 Bangkok.4 34. Laem Chabang Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 13% USA 11% Japan 11% USA 6% EU-27 8% Japan 19% Political Data Prime Minister: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank Governor: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Abhisit Vejjajiva 23 December 2007 December 2011 Tarisa Watanagase Exports Other 26% China 15% Other 35% Imports China 12% Other Asia 24% Other Asia 20% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating Baa1 BBB+ BBB Outlook Negative Negative Stable Primary products | share in % Resource based products 12% Strengths Weaknesses Exports Labour intensive prod.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 10.910 3. Gas and Water Supply 50% 1.7 39.0 128 0.6 3.): Population density (per km2. hunting.0 Electricity.): Life expectancy (years.3 GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 2009 8.5 Agriculture. 2009 est. 2009 est.7 Manufacturing 25% Household Goods 25% 34. 6% Agricultural prod and mining.053 4.7 m) Samut Prakan (0.FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Thailand November 2010 Thailand in the Region Official name: Capital: Other cities: Area (km2): Population (million.000 66.0 13. English Metric system 7 hours ahead of GMT Population | %-share in Asia Thailand 2% Other 9% Indonesia 7% China 44% GDP | %-share in Asia Thailand 3% Other 23% Indonesia 6% India 15% India 38% China 53% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones . forestry.8 Other 0% 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 Net exports 2009 Government Consumption 0% 105 4. 2009 est.868 135 130 345 947 248 50% 14. 11% Other manufactured prod.9 3.4 122.) Population growth rate (%. fishing 75% 75% 38.8 1. 61% Consumer goods: 8% Capital goods: 21% Other 1% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 108 .6 73. 2000): Language: Measures: Time: Kingdom of Thailand Bangkok (5.5 GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 9.): Illiteracy rate (%.071 180. 2009 est.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .

4 2010-14 90.7% in October. the panel expects inflation to moderate to 8.2%.9%.6 -0.6 2005-09 85.3 -2. Inflation rose from 8.9 26. which is up 0.4 2.1 32.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.1% annually in September.8 -4.0 10. LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 79.2 -2. despite recent drops in unofficial exchange rate rates.8 -6. the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 6. Panellists expect inflation to average 9.8 37 460 7. which is down 0. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 6. supported by healthy domestic demand and strong exports.1 • • Joan Enric Domene Economist 1 | GDP | % variation 12 2 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 3 | Inflation | in % 30 0 20 6 -3 10 0 Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) World -6 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 -6 Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) World -9 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0 Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) -10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts 8 5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst -2 6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts 12 2010 2011 7 -4 10 6 -6 8 5 Jun Sep Dec Mar 2010 2011 Jun Sep 2010 2011 -8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 6 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 109 .435 6.9% in September to 9.5 percentage points from last month’s projection. Meanwhile.5 -6.FOCUSECONOMICS Vietnam November 2010 Vietnam Vietnam Outlook improves • Industrial output expanded 15. In 2011.2 74 861 7. For 2011.8 131 1. Governor Nguyen Van Giau has stated that the State Bank does not plan further exchange rate adjustments following on August’s devaluation.6 39.1% this year.1 7.6% this year.

4 4.994 -0.475 2004 82. Source: SBV.7 16.1 10. 7 Exchange rate.0 16.7 4.9 -13.280 -1.7 -14.5 15.9 8.2 -5. variation in %) Inflation (CPI.000 2010 2011 17.510 -4.5 8.4 31.8 22.997 16.9 18.6 Q4 11 8.5 5.5 Q4 10 7.1 25.0 11. 2 Balance of non-financial public sector.777 15.61 19. ann.3 -0.3 8.1 20.537 2008 86.3 21.5 26. eop) 7 | Exchange Rate | VND per USD 22.2 2.9 489 40 7.3 29.7 29. Forecasts based on Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast.4 26.6 1. Tong Cuc Thong Ke).0 16.0 554 45 7.1 28.8 12.000 5 0 18.1 36. variation in %) Private Consumption (ann.5 7. VND per USD (eop).6 8.1 -6.2 21.0 31.6 26.6 -4. See below for details.7 -2.7 15.8 5.1 Q2 10 6.041 8 | Current Account | % of GDP 10 20.0 Q3 11 7.3 3.077 -9.055 15.1 Q3 09 6.537 19.62 15.8 6.8 4.8 -7.2 19.00 18.7 Q1 10 5.3 9.7 2.646 15.3 15.1 20. ann.1 -7.9 8.4 16.2 5.9 -1.2 21.0 62.139 101 6. 3 Inflation.9 6.041 19.1 33. Source: GSO.7 19.000 -10 Vietnam Asia (ex Japan) Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2011 unless otherwise stated.9 -4. annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI.2 9. the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and the Ministry of Finance.50 16.7 18.8 7. 14.035 2011 89.9 4.6 20.3 2.6 -1.0 40.0 -14.1 Q3 10 6.9 28.25 16.0 19.0 -5.244 112 6.2 8.3 -8.9 33.7 8. Source: Ministry of Finance.0 6.859 -1.8 23.7 7.7 7.5 32.1 637 53 8.8 -10.9 7. Source: GSO.3 20.000 -4 19.2 6.1 19.6 12.7 22.4 36.006 -8.0 -1.6 5.3 3.5 7.1 2.3 9.8 -9.6 24.0 3.2 81.25 15.8 5.8 2.5 10.7 19.7 -0. 1 GDP.9 Q1 11 6.2 8.4 7.3 -12.0 20.50 15.000 Vietnam November 2010 2002 79.3 1.6 7.3 29.7 80.8 4.9 23.5 12.8 94.6 27.7 4. annual variation in %. % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 5.FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Indicators | 2002 .2 18.3 Q2 11 6.9 16.9 17.9 39.020 16.9 14.8 24.3 32.1 -1.2 48.2 28.5 1. 6 Inflation.6 -4.2011 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP.000 -6 18.1 7.8 17.7 11.5 19.736 -2.0 4.3 18.0 11.8 13.3 8.25 16.6 7.544 2006 84. annual average variation in %) Exchange Rate (VND per USD.3 38.2 9.6 -3.2 836 71 8.1 5.9 8.481 2003 80.2 16.000 10 | Current Account | evol.5 23.000 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep -8 -10 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 110 .3 3.6 -1.0 8.948 2010 88.0 9.2 9.8 21.4 3.7 -18. of fcst -2 2010 2011 20.30 20.2 56. eop) Exchange Rate (VND per USD.000 -5 16.8 -1. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. variation in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop.8 4.9 28. 10 Current account balance in USD billion.1 9. Source: GSO.1 -0.9 16.0 7.9 22.1 39. eop) Exchange Rate (VND per USD.1 7.5 82.6 62.0 30.4 Q4 09 6.4 8.1 13. All data are from General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO.6 68. 9 Exchange rate.5 8.0 17.932 2007 85.3 8.832 -7.4 1.050 91 6.2 -12.9 12. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.403 15.789 -7.916 15.9 7.9 -5.835 2009 87.45 15.7 69. annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. 8 Current account balance as % of GDP.313 -11.000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 -15 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 9 | VND/USD | evolution of fcst 21.5 13. 5 Balance of non-financial public sector.9 6. annual average variation in %) Base Rate (%.7 19. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.6 4.475 17. % of GDP.1 724 61 8.3 -0.9 18.7 -7. average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP.8 -0.2 3. 4 GDP.056 92 5.1 8.9 6.7 440 35 7.8 3.8 7.8 44. evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.6 7.0 8.6 3.544 2005 83.0 39.8 6.

7 -25% Other 2003 Private Consumption Investment 2005 2007 Net exports 2009 Government Consumption 0% 44 2.2 25% 4. 2009 est. & Fish.4 17.3 351 258 80.): 1. fishery Mining & quarrying 20.2 Life expectancy (years.main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones .2 m) Haiphong (1. 2009 est.4 0% 25% 26.7 Language: Vietnamese Measures: Metric system Time: 7 hours ahead of GMT GDP | %-share in Latin America Vietnam 1% Malaysia 2% Indonesia 6% Other 23% India 38% Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2009) Telephones .0 GDP by Sector | share in % 100% 2004 16.347 222.9 2.6 GDP by Expenditure | share in % 100% 2009 16.8 24.8 Manufacturing 50% 6. Hai Phong Trade Structure Primary markets | share in % EU-27 6% USA 21% EU-27 18% Other 21% USA 4% Japan 10% Political Data Prim e Minister: Last elections: Next elections: Governor of State Bank: Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Nguyen Minh Triet 24 July 2007 June 2011 Nguyen Van Giau Exports Other 24% Japan 14% China 8% Imports China 25% Other Asia 15% Other Asia 34% Agency Moody’s: S&P: Fitch Ratings: Rating Ba3 BB B+ Outlook Negative Negative Stable Other 36% Primary products | share in % Machinery.0 Agriculture.8 59.): 268 Population growth rate (%. Equipment.3 8. Products 25% Strengths • Diversified exports • Net exporter of crude oil • Low cost and productive work force Weaknesses • Large public sector • Insufficient infrastructure • Weak financial system Exports Textiles & Footwear 22% Crude Oil 17% Other 51% Imports Steel 8% Textiles & Other Fabrics 10% LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 111 .FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Vietnam November 2010 Vietnam in the Region Population | %-share in Latin America Vietnam Malaysia 3% 1% Other 8% Indonesia 7% China 43% India 15% China 53% Official name: Socialist Republic of Vietnam Capital: Ha Noi (3.702 Da Nang. forestry.2 50% 21.mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 88.337 66.7 Illiteracy rate (%. 2009 est. 2009 est.6 Population density (per km2.183 1.3 3.7 27.212 Population (million.347 17.8 Trade 75% Construction 75% 9. Tools & Spare Parts 17% Petroleum 14% Ag.6 27.): 71.2 m) Other cities: Ho Chi Minh City (6.9 100.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports: 34. 2000): 9.8 m) Area (km2): 331.

Taiwan. including incidental and consequential damages. Thailand and Vietnam. Hong Kong.L. Thailand and Vietnam.focus-economics. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth. Indonesia. Malaysia. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Please cite source when quoting.L. or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S. mechanical. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. Indonesia. Hong Kong. Korea. November 2010 COPYRIGHT NOTE © Copyright 2010 FocusEconomics S. Korea. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. Singapore. is strictly prohibited. Korea. Singapore. Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations. and include the following countries: Asia (12 countries): China. Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona Spain tel: +34 932 651 040 fax: +34 932 650 804 e-mail: info@focus-economics. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. transmission. India. or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information. NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic.FOCUSECONOMICS Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. Asia ex-Japan (11 countries): China. Singapore. Thailand and Vietnam. Singapore and Taiwan.L. Cambodia and Laos) are not included in the calculation of the regional average. Burma (Myanmar). complete or timely. reproduction.com web: http://www. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. Philippines. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S. India. Taiwan. inflation and exchange rates. Philippines. Philippines. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions. Japan. 6 countries): Indonesia. 4 countries): Hong Kong. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis. Malaysia. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 112 . Malaysia. FocusEconomics and the participating panellists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate. Duplication. The remaining four Asean members (Brunei. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction.

CONTACT INFORMATION Title: Mr Ms Last Name: E-mail: Department: First Name: Position/Job title: Organisation/Company: Address: City: Country: Telephone: Postal Code: Fax: ORDER PDF Single Country Edition Single copy (€ 50) Annual subscription (€ 195): China India Korea Full Country Edition Single copy (€ 120) Annual subscription: 1 User (€ 590) 2-5 Users (€ 890) 6-10 Users (€ 1.990) Corporate License (€ 4. please contact: FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657 | E-08010 Barcelona | Spain Tel: +34 93 265 10 40 Fax: +34 93 265 08 04 Email: subscribers@focus-economics.com FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 113 . 2 E-28020 Madrid.A. fax.290) 11-20 Users (€ 1.190) 11-20 Users (€ 3. Bank Address: Plaza de Manuel Gómez Moreno.FOCUSECONOMICS Order Form November 2010 Please complete the information below and return it to FocusEconomics either by Please note the address should be the billing address of the cardholder in the case of credit card payments.990) Corporate License (€ 7. Instructions Bank: Openbank Santander Consumer S. IBAN: ES36 0073 0100 5004 0714 0338 BIC/SWIFT: OPENESMM Beneficiary: FocusEconomics S.490) PDF and Excel Full Country Edition Annual subscription: 1 User (€ 990) 2-5 Users (€ 1.290) 21-50 Users (€ 4.490) PAYMENT INFORMATION Credit card: American Express Mastercard Visa Cardholder Name: Card Number: Expiration Date:____/____ Cheque: Wire Transfer: Please send cheque to address below.L. For first class mail delivery or fax service.490) 6-10 Users (€ 2. Spain Delivery will be by email in Adobe PDF format unless otherwise requested. email or mail.990) 21-50 Users (€ 2.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful