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Gestão da Manutenção

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GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO

Gestão da Manutenção 1 GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO RELIABILITY GROWTH Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

RELIABILITY GROWTH

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)
Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

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Failure Rate

1. Linear trend or random: IID (independent identically distributed failures)

(

T

)

ˆ

=

N(T)

(

N T

)

T

or random: IID (independent identically distributed failures) ( T ) ⇒ ˆ = N(T) ( N

T

or random: IID (independent identically distributed failures) ( T ) ⇒ ˆ = N(T) ( N

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Failure Rate

2. Logarithmic trend

N(T) T
N(T)
T

( ) ˆ T ⇒ = T
(
)
ˆ
T
=
T

1 (Crow Model)

3 Failure Rate 2. Logarithmic trend N(T) T ( ) ˆ T ⇒ = T 1

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Reliability Growth

The first prototypes produced during the development of a new complex system will contain:

design, manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies.

design, manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies. the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the

the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the system's reliability goal or requirement.

The prototypes are often subjected to a rigorous testing program.

are often subjected to a rigorous testing program. Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective

Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective actions (or redesign) are taken.

Reliability growth is the improvement in the reliability of a product over a period of time due to changes in the product's design / manufacturing process.

over a period of time due to changes in the product's design / manufacturing process. Bernardo

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Reliability Growth

Reliability growth occurs from corrective and/or preventive actions based on experience gained from failures and from analysis of the equipment, design, production and operation processes.

The reliability growth test, analysis and fix concept in design is applied by uncovering weaknesses during the testing stages and performing appropriate corrective actions before full-scale production. A corrective action takes place at the problem and root cause level. Therefore, a failure mode is a problem and root cause. Reliability growth addresses failure modes.

Rework, repair and temporary fixes do not constitute reliability growth.

failure modes. Rework, repair and temporary fixes do not constitute reliability growth. Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

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Reliability Growth

The initial MTBF is the value actually achieved by the basic reliability tasks.

The growth potential is the MTBF, with the current management strategy, that can be attained if the test is conducted long enough.

that can be attained if the test is conducted long enough. The effectiveness of the corrective

The effectiveness of the corrective actions is part of the overall management strategy

enough. The effectiveness of the corrective actions is part of the overall management strategy Bernardo Almada-Lobo

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

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Reliability Growth

Reliability growth analysis can be conducted using different data types:

Time-to-failure (continuous) data

the most commonly observed type It involves recording the times-to-failure for the unit(s) under test. can be applied to a single unit or system or to multiple units or systems

Success/Failure Data

also referred to as discrete or attribute data It involves recording data from a test for a unit when there are only two possible outcomes: success or failure.

data from a test for a unit when there are only two possible outcomes: success or

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Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP)

HPP

8 Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) H P P NHPP Expected number of failures N(T) T Expected

NHPP

8 Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) H P P NHPP Expected number of failures N(T) T Expected
Expected number of failures N(T)
Expected number of failures N(T)

T

Expected number of failures N(T)
Expected number of failures N(T)

T

(NHPP) H P P NHPP Expected number of failures N(T) T Expected number of failures N(T)

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Duane Model

The Duane model is a two parameter model. Therefore, to use this model as a basis for predicting the reliability growth that could be expected in an equipment development program, procedures must be defined for estimating these parameters as a function of equipment characteristics. Note that, while these parameters can be estimated for a given data set using curve-fitting methods, there exists no underlying theory for the Duane model that could provide a basis for a priori estimation.

ReliaSoft's RGA 6 - RGA.ReliaSoft.com

Cumulative Number of Failures vs Time

10000.00 Duane Data 1 Developmental LS 1000.00 100.00 10.00 KimPries Stoneridge TED 9/12/2006 11:01 1.00
10000.00
Duane
Data 1
Developmental
LS
1000.00
100.00
10.00
KimPries
Stoneridge TED
9/12/2006 11:01
1.00
100.00
1000.00
Cum. Number of Failures

Time

Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224

11:01 1.00 100.00 1000.00 Cum. Number of Failures Time Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224 Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

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Duane Model

Slope of tangent λ i ( ) 1 N t = 1 t b Slope
Slope of tangent λ i
( )
1
N t
= 1 t
b
Slope of chord = λ c
Expected number of failures N(T)

λ

c ( ) N T 1 = = T c T b
c
(
)
N T
1
=
=
T
c
T
b
T Cumulative test time Cumulative test time, T ln(λ’ s ) d ( E N
T Cumulative test time
Cumulative test time, T
ln(λ’ s
)
d
(
E N T
(
(
)))
1
=
=
(
1
)
T
=
(
1
)
i
c
dT
b
ln(1
)
ln
(
c )
ln
(
)
=
ln 1
(
)
+
ln
=
ln 1
(
)
+
ln   1 
ln T
i
c
 
b
ln
(
i )
ln(T)
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Duane Model

 

T

 

MTBF

=

c

 

(

N T

)

y

=

mx

+

c

y

= ln

(

MTBF

c

)

x

(

= ln T

)

m =

 

c

ln

MTBF

=

(

ln

b

MTBF

c

c

=

=

)

=

bT

1

ln

b

+

ln

MTBF

i

MTBF

c

1

(

T

,

)

π

1

α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth.

MTBF c 1 ( T , ) π 1 α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth.

1/b = the cumulative failure rate at T = 1, or at the beginning of the test, or the earliest time at which the first λ c is predicted, or the λ c for the equipment at the start of the design and development process

or the λ c for the equipment at the start of the design and development process

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Duane Model

α < 0.2

Reliability has low priority (minimum effort on the improvement of the product’s reliability)

α = 0.2-0.3 Corrective action taken for important failure modes only

α = 0.3-0.4 Well managed programme with reliability as a high priority

α = 0.4-0.6 Programme dedicated to the removal of design weakness and to reliability

Both the failure rate or MTBF at time T can be obtained through graphical extrapolation.

at time T can be obtained through graphical extrapolation. inaccurate when there is a poor data

inaccurate when there is a poor data adjustment

be obtained through graphical extrapolation. inaccurate when there is a poor data adjustment Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

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Crow Model

Larry H. Crow noted that the Duane model could be stochastically represented as a Weibull process, allowing for statistical procedures to be used in the application of this model in reliability growth.

used in the application of this model in reliability growth. The reliability growth pattern for the

The reliability growth pattern for the Crow model is exactly the same pattern as for the Duane postulate: the cumulative number of failures is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale.

Unlike the Duane postulate the Crow model is statistically based.

Duane postulate: the failure rate is linear on ln-ln scale. Crow model: the failure intensity of the underlying NHPP is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale.

model: the failure intensity of the underlying NHPP is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale. Bernardo

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Crow Model

N(t): cumulative number of failures observed in cumulative test time t ρ(t)=λ i (t): failure intensity for the Crow model

Under the NHPP model,

of a failure occurring over the interval

(t) t

is approximately the probably

[t,t + t]

for small

t

The expected number of failures experienced over the test interval [0, T]

The Crow model assumes that

(T )

( )

t

E N T

[

(

)]

=

T

0

( )

t dt

may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function

=

i

( )

t

=

t

1

T ∫ 0 ( ) t dt may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function

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Crow Model

If

=

1

the intensity function,

(T )

i

(

T

)

=

d

dT

(

N T

)

=

or the instantaneous failure intensity,

T

1

, with

T

>

0,

>

0 and

>

0

i

(t) , is defined as:

In the special case of exponential failure times there is no growth ( =1) and the failure

intensity,

(T )

, is equal to

.

)

n

=

e

T ∫ 0 T
T
0
T

In this case, the expected number of failures is given by:

and

Pr

[

(

N T

)

=

n

]

=

(

T

)

n

e

T

n

!

;

n

=

0,1,2,

E[N(T )]

(t)dt

T

T

(

T

In the general case:

=

0

=

E N T

[

(

)]

( )

t dt

and

Pr

[

(

N T

)

n

]

=

=

n !

;

n

=

1

b DUANE

CROW

=

=

T

0,1,2,

( ) ] ( ) t dt and Pr [ ( N T ) n ]

=

1

DUANE

CROW

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Crow Model

Gestão da Manutenção 16 Crow Model Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)
Gestão da Manutenção 16 Crow Model Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)
Gestão da Manutenção 16 Crow Model Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

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Crow Model – graphic method

( )

N t

=

T

ln(N(t))= ln t + ln

d

dt

( )

N t

=

T

1

ln N(t)

declive
declive

ln(N(t))= ln t + ln

ln(T)

(

T

0

)

=

T

0

1

=

N T ( ) 0
N T
(
)
0

T

0

t ) declive ln ( N ( t )) = ln t + ln ln( T

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Crow Model

Maximum Likelihood Estimators

The probability density function (pdf) of the i th event given that the (i - 1) th event occurred at T i-1 is:

The likelihood function is

occurred at T i - 1 is: The likelihood function is ( ) 1 f T
( ) 1 f T T = ◊ T e i i 1 i n
(
)
1
f T
T
=
T
e
i
i
1
i
n
1
n
L
=
◊ 
t
i
i = 1

where

T* is the termination time and is given by:

  where T* is the termination time and is given by: 1 ( T T
1 ( T T i i 1 n  1    ∑ t
1
(
T
T
i
i
1
n
 1 
t
i
e
i = 1

)

And differentiating with respect to

 ◊ e i = 1 ) And differentiating with respect to yields: Taking the natural
 ◊ e i = 1 ) And differentiating with respect to yields: Taking the natural

yields:

Taking the natural log on both sides:

respect to yields: Taking the natural log on both sides: Set equal to zero and solve

Set equal to zero and solve for

^

=

N

T

*

=

N

T

0

Taking the natural log on both sides: Set equal to zero and solve for ^ =

:

Taking the natural log on both sides: Set equal to zero and solve for ^ =

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Crow Model – parameter estimation

Now differentiate eqn. (*) with respect to

estimation Now differentiate eqn. (*) with respect to : Set equal to zero and solve for

:

estimation Now differentiate eqn. (*) with respect to : Set equal to zero and solve for

Set equal to zero and solve for

eqn. (*) with respect to : Set equal to zero and solve for : Time Terminated

:

Time Terminated Data

ˆ N = N  ∑ ln 0   T  T  
ˆ N
=
N
∑ ln
0
  T
T
 
i
i = 1

Failure Terminated Data

ˆ N = N 1  ∑ ln   T  n T 
ˆ N
=
N
1
∑ ln
  T
n T
 
i
i = 1

1 Failure Terminated Data ˆ N = N 1  ∑ ln   T 

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Crow Bounds on Instantaneous MTBF

Time Terminated Data

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ MTBF = ( T ) = T N ◊ =
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
MTBF
=
(
T
)
=
T
N
=
1
T
limite inferior:
ˆ
MTBF
=
L
( T
)
1
ˆ
limite superior:
MTBF
=
U
( T
)
2

1

(Tabela 2)

Failure Terminated Data (less usual)

ˆ ˆ MTBF = ( T ) = T N ◊ n limite inferior: ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
MTBF =
(
T
)
= T
N ◊
n
limite inferior:
ˆ
MTBF
=
p
L
(
T
)
1
ˆ
limite superior:
MTBF
=
p
U
(
T
)
2

(Tabela 1)

= ◊ p L ( T ) 1 ˆ limite superior: MTBF = ◊ p U

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)