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1

GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO

RELIABILITY GROWTH

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

2

Failure Rate

1. Linear trend or random: IID (independent identically distributed failures)

N(T)

T

ˆ = N (T ) λ (T ) ⇒ λ T

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção 3 Failure Rate 2. Logarithmic trend N(T) T ˆ λ (T ) ⇒ λ = λβ T β −1 (Crow Model) Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

Gestão da Manutenção 4 Reliability Growth The first prototypes produced during the development of a new complex system will contain: design. manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies. Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) . Reliability growth is the improvement in the reliability of a product over a period of time due to changes in the product's design / manufacturing process. The prototypes are often subjected to a rigorous testing program. the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the system's reliability goal or requirement. Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective actions (or redesign) are taken.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) . a failure mode is a problem and root cause. The reliability growth test. design. repair and temporary fixes do not constitute reliability growth. Rework. production and operation processes. Therefore.Gestão da Manutenção 5 Reliability Growth Reliability growth occurs from corrective and/or preventive actions based on experience gained from failures and from analysis of the equipment. Reliability growth addresses failure modes. A corrective action takes place at the problem and root cause level. analysis and fix concept in design is applied by uncovering weaknesses during the testing stages and performing appropriate corrective actions before full-scale production.

that can be attained if the test is conducted long enough. The effectiveness of the corrective actions is part of the overall management strategy Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .Gestão da Manutenção 6 Reliability Growth The initial MTBF is the value actually achieved by the basic reliability tasks. The growth potential is the MTBF. with the current management strategy.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) . can be applied to a single unit or system or to multiple units or systems Success/Failure Data also referred to as discrete or attribute data It involves recording data from a test for a unit when there are only two possible outcomes: success or failure.Gestão da Manutenção 7 Reliability Growth Reliability growth analysis can be conducted using different data types: Time-to-failure (continuous) data the most commonly observed type It involves recording the times-to-failure for the unit(s) under test.

Gestão da Manutenção 8 Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) HPP NHPP Expected number of failures N(T) T Expected number of failures N(T) T Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

to use this model as a basis for predicting the reliability growth that could be expected in an equipment development program. while these parameters can be estimated for a given data set using curve-fitting methods.ReliaSoft. b=18364.00 Alpha=-1.RGA.00 1.7224 Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .com Cumulative Number of Failures vs Time 10000.00 Duane Data 1 Developmental LS 1000. Therefore.00 Time Kim Pries Stoneridge TED 9/12/2006 11:01 1000. Number of Failures 100.00 Cum.00 10. there exists no underlying theory for the Duane model that could provide a basis for a priori estimation.Gestão da Manutenção 9 Duane Model The Duane model is a two parameter model. Note that. procedures must be defined for estimating these parameters as a function of equipment characteristics.9467.00 100. ReliaSoft's RGA 6 .

T ln(λ’s) d (E ( N (T ))) 1 = (1 − α )T −α = (1 − α )λc dT b 1 ln(λi ) = ln (1 − α ) + ln λc = ln (1 − α ) + ln − α ln T b λi = ln(1 − α ) ln(λc ) ln(λi ) ln(T) Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .Gestão da Manutenção 10 Duane Model Slope of tangent λi Expected number of failures N(T) λc 1 N (t ) = t 1−α b Slope of chord = λc ( ) λc = N T = 1 T −α T b T Cumulative test time Cumulative test time.

α ≠ 1 1−α α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth. or at the beginning of the test.Gestão da Manutenção 11 Duane Model MTBFc = T N (T ) y = mx + c y = ln(MTBFc ) x = ln(T ) m =α c = ln b ln(MTBFc ) = ln b + α ln(T ) MTBFc = bT α MTBFi = 1 MTBFc . or the earliest time at which the first λc is predicted. or the λc for the equipment at the start of the design and development process Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) . 1/b = the cumulative failure rate at T = 1.

3 Corrective action taken for important failure modes only α = 0.4-0.4 Well managed programme with reliability as a high priority α = 0. inaccurate when there is a poor data adjustment Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .2-0.3-0.6 Programme dedicated to the removal of design weakness and to reliability Both the failure rate or MTBF at time T can be obtained through graphical extrapolation.Gestão da Manutenção 12 Duane Model α < 0.2 Reliability has low priority (minimum effort on the improvement of the product’s reliability) α = 0.

Duane postulate: the failure rate is linear on ln-ln scale. Crow noted that the Duane model could be stochastically represented as a Weibull process. allowing for statistical procedures to be used in the application of this model in reliability growth. The reliability growth pattern for the Crow model is exactly the same pattern as for the Duane postulate: the cumulative number of failures is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale. Unlike the Duane postulate the Crow model is statistically based. Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) . Crow model: the failure intensity of the underlying NHPP is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale.Gestão da Manutenção 13 Crow Model Larry H.

Gestão da Manutenção 14 Crow Model N(t): cumulative number of failures observed in cumulative test time t ρ(t)=λi(t): failure intensity for the Crow model Under the NHPP model. t + ∆t ] for small ∆t The expected number of failures experienced over the test interval [0. ρ (t )∆t is approximately the probably of a failure occurring over the interval [t . T] E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt T The Crow model assumes that ρ (T ) may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function 0 ρ (t ) = λi (t ) = β β −1 ⋅t β η Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

. In this case. is equal to λ .1.. In the general case: E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt 0 T and (λT β ) e λ Pr[N (T ) = n] = n! bDUANE = 1 n − Tβ . ρ (T ) . ρ (T ) or the instantaneous failure intensity. = λT β α DUANE λCROW = 1 − β CROW Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) . the expected number of failures is given by: E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt = λT T (λT )n e −λT and Pr[N (T ) = n] = n! 0 .. is defined as: λi (T ) = d N (T ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 .. λi (t ) .2.2.Gestão da Manutenção 15 Crow Model If λ = 1 η β the intensity function.1. n = 0.. with T > 0. n = 0.. λ > 0 and β > 0 dT In the special case of exponential failure times there is no growth (β=1) and the failure intensity.

Gestão da Manutenção 16 Crow Model Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

Gestão da Manutenção 17 Crow Model – graphic method N (t ) = λ ⋅ T β ln ( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ ln N(t) ln( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ declive β λ ln(T) d β −1 N (t ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 → λ (T0 ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T0 = N (T0 ) β T0 dt Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

Gestão da Manutenção 18 Crow Model Maximum Likelihood Estimators The probability density function (pdf) of the ith event given that the (i .1)th event occurred at Ti-1 is: 1 − β Tiβ −Tiβ1 − β −1 η β f (Ti Ti −1 ) = β ⋅ Ti η The likelihood function is ( ) e β L= β η n ⋅ Π ti i =1 n β −1 1 − ⋅ e η β n i =1 ∑ tiβ where T* is the termination time and is given by: And differentiating with respect to yields: Taking the natural log on both sides: Set equal to zero and solve for λ= ^ : N T *β = N T0β Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

Gestão da Manutenção 19 Crow Model – parameter estimation Now differentiate eqn. (*) with respect to : Set equal to zero and solve for : Time Terminated Data ˆ β= N N T ∑ ln 0 Ti i =1 Failure Terminated Data ˆ β= N N −1 T ∑ ln n Ti i =1 Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

Gestão da Manutenção 20 Crow Bounds on Instantaneous MTBF Time Terminated Data ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ MTBF = θ (T ) = T N ⋅ β =1 λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 limite inferior: limite superior: ˆ MTBFL = θ (T ) ⋅ Π1 ˆ MTBFU = θ (T ) ⋅ Π 2 (Tabela 2) Failure Terminated Data (less usual) ˆ ˆ MTBF = θ (T ) = Tn N ⋅ β limite inferior: limite superior: ˆ MTBFL = θ (T ) ⋅ p1 ˆ MTBFU = θ (T ) ⋅ p2 (Tabela 1) Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007) .

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