00 upvotes00 downvotes

56 views20 pagesJan 30, 2011

© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

56 views

00 upvotes00 downvotes

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

You are on page 1of 20

Gestão da Manutenção

1

GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO

RELIABILITY GROWTH

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

2

Failure Rate

1. Linear trend or random: IID (independent identically distributed failures)

(

T

)

⇒

ˆ

=

N(T)

(

N T

)

T

T

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

3

Failure Rate

2. Logarithmic trend

N(T)

T

(

)

ˆ

T

⇒

=

T

1 (Crow Model)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

4

Reliability Growth

The first prototypes produced during the development of a new complex system will contain:

design, manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies.

the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the system's reliability goal or requirement.

The prototypes are often subjected to a rigorous testing program.

Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective actions (or redesign) are taken.

Reliability growth is the improvement in the reliability of a product over a period of time due to changes in the product's design / manufacturing process.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

5

Reliability Growth

Reliability growth occurs from corrective and/or preventive actions based on experience gained from failures and from analysis of the equipment, design, production and operation processes.

The reliability growth test, analysis and fix concept in design is applied by uncovering weaknesses during the testing stages and performing appropriate corrective actions before full-scale production. A corrective action takes place at the problem and root cause level. Therefore, a failure mode is a problem and root cause. Reliability growth addresses failure modes.

Rework, repair and temporary fixes do not constitute reliability growth.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

6

Reliability Growth

The initial MTBF is the value actually achieved by the basic reliability tasks.

The growth potential is the MTBF, with the current management strategy, that can be attained if the test is conducted long enough.

The effectiveness of the corrective actions is part of the overall management strategy

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

7

Reliability Growth

Reliability growth analysis can be conducted using different data types:

Time-to-failure (continuous) data

the most commonly observed type It involves recording the times-to-failure for the unit(s) under test. can be applied to a single unit or system or to multiple units or systems

Success/Failure Data

also referred to as discrete or attribute data It involves recording data from a test for a unit when there are only two possible outcomes: success or failure.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

8

Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP)

^{H}^{P}^{P}

NHPP

Expected number of failures N(T)

T

Expected number of failures N(T)

T

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

9

Duane Model

The Duane model is a two parameter model. Therefore, to use this model as a basis for predicting the reliability growth that could be expected in an equipment development program, procedures must be defined for estimating these parameters as a function of equipment characteristics. Note that, while these parameters can be estimated for a given data set using curve-fitting methods, there exists no underlying theory for the Duane model that could provide a basis for a priori estimation.

ReliaSoft's RGA 6 - RGA.ReliaSoft.com

Cumulative Number of Failures vs Time

10000.00

Duane

Data 1

Developmental

LS

1000.00

100.00

10.00

KimPries

Stoneridge TED

9/12/2006 11:01

1.00

100.00

1000.00

Cum. Number of Failures

Time

Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

10

Duane Model

Slope of tangent λ i

( )

1

N t

= 1 t

b

Slope of chord = λ c

Expected number of failures N(T)

^{λ}

c

(

)

N T

1

=

=

T

c

T

b

T Cumulative test time

Cumulative test time, T

ln(λ’ s

)

d

(

E N T

(

(

)))

1

=

=

(

1

)

T

=

(

1

)

i

c

dT

b

ln(1

)

ln

(

c )

ln

(

)

=

ln 1

(

)

+

ln

=

ln 1

(

)

+

ln 1

ln T

i

c

b

ln

(

i )

ln(T)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

11

Duane Model

T |
||||||||

MTBF |
= |
|||||||

c |
( N T |
) |
||||||

y |
= |
mx + |
c |
|||||

y |
= ln |
( MTBF c ) |
||||||

x |
( = ln T |
) |
||||||

m = |

c

ln

MTBF

=

(

ln

b

MTBF

c

c

=

=

)

=

bT

1

ln

b

+

ln

MTBF

i

MTBF

c

1

(

T

,

)

π

1

α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth.

1/b = the cumulative failure rate at T = 1, or at the beginning of the test, or the earliest time at which the first λ _{c} is predicted, or the λ _{c} for the equipment at the start of the design and development process

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

12

Duane Model

α < 0.2

Reliability has low priority (minimum effort on the improvement of the product’s reliability)

α = 0.2-0.3 Corrective action taken for important failure modes only

α = 0.3-0.4 Well managed programme with reliability as a high priority

α = 0.4-0.6 Programme dedicated to the removal of design weakness and to reliability

Both the failure rate or MTBF at time T can be obtained through graphical extrapolation.

inaccurate when there is a poor data adjustment

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

13

Crow Model

Larry H. Crow noted that the Duane model could be stochastically represented as a Weibull process, allowing for statistical procedures to be used in the application of this model in reliability growth.

The reliability growth pattern for the Crow model is exactly the same pattern as for the Duane postulate: the cumulative number of failures is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale.

Unlike the Duane postulate the Crow model is statistically based.

Duane postulate: the failure rate is linear on ln-ln scale. Crow model: the failure intensity of the underlying NHPP is linear when plotted on ln-ln scale.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

14

Crow Model

N(t): cumulative number of failures observed in cumulative test time t ρ(t)=λ _{i} (t): failure intensity for the Crow model

Under the NHPP model,

of a failure occurring over the interval

(t) t

is approximately the probably

[t,t + t]

for small

t

The expected number of failures experienced over the test interval [0, T]

The Crow model assumes that

(T )

( )

t

E N T

[

(

)]

=

T

∫

0

( )

t dt

may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function

=

i

( )

t

=

◊

t

1

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

15

Crow Model

If

=

1

the intensity function,

_{} (T )

i

(

T

)

=

d

dT

(

N T

)

=

or the instantaneous failure intensity,

◊

◊

T

1

, with

T

>

0,

>

0 and

>

0

i

(t) , is defined as:

In the special case of exponential failure times there is no growth ( =1) and the failure

intensity,

_{} (T )

, is equal to

.

)

n

=

e

T

∫

0

T

In this case, the expected number of failures is given by:

and

Pr

[

(

N T

)

=

n

]

=

(

T

)

n

e

T

n

!

;

n

=

0,1,2,

E[N(T )]

(t)dt

T

T

(

T

In the general case:

= ∫

0

=

E N T

[

(

)]

( )

t dt

and

Pr

[

(

N T

)

n

]

=

=

n !

;

n

=

1

b DUANE

CROW

=

=

T

0,1,2,

=

1

DUANE

CROW

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

16

Crow Model

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

17

Crow Model – graphic method

( )

N t

=

◊T

ln(N(t))= ln t + ln

d

dt

( )

N t

=

◊

◊

T

1

ln N(t)

declive

ln(N(t))= ln t + ln

ln(T)

(

T

0

)

=

◊

◊

T

0

1

=

N T

(

)

0

T

0

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

18

Crow Model

Maximum Likelihood Estimators

The probability density function (pdf) of the i ^{t}^{h} event given that the (i - 1) ^{t}^{h} event occurred at T _{i}_{-}_{1} is:

The likelihood function is

(

)

1

f T

T

=

◊

T

e

i

i

1

i

n

1

n

L

=

◊

t

i

i = 1

where

T* is the termination time and is given by:

1

(

T

T

i

i

1

n

1

∑

t

i

◊

e

i = 1

)

And differentiating with respect to

yields:

Taking the natural log on both sides:

Set equal to zero and solve for

^

=

N

T

*

=

N

T

0

:

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

19

Crow Model – parameter estimation

Now differentiate eqn. (*) with respect to

:

Set equal to zero and solve for

:

Time Terminated Data

ˆ N

=

N

∑ ln

0

T

T

i

i = 1

Failure Terminated Data

ˆ N

=

N

1

∑ ln

T

n T

i

i = 1

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção

20

Crow Bounds on Instantaneous MTBF

Time Terminated Data

ˆ

ˆ

ˆ

ˆ

ˆ

MTBF

=

(

T

)

=

T

N

◊

=

1

◊

◊

T

limite inferior:

ˆ

MTBF

=

◊

L

( T

)

1

ˆ

limite superior:

MTBF

=

◊

U

( T

)

2

1

(Tabela 2)

Failure Terminated Data (less usual)

ˆ

ˆ

MTBF =

(

T

)

= T

N ◊

n

limite inferior:

ˆ

MTBF

=

◊

p

L

(

T

)

1

ˆ

limite superior:

MTBF

=

◊

p

U

(

T

)

2

(Tabela 1)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

## Much more than documents.

Discover everything Scribd has to offer, including books and audiobooks from major publishers.

Cancel anytime.