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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO

RELIABILITY GROWTH

Gestão da Manutenção 2

Failure Rate

N(T)

N (T )

λ (T ) ⇒ λ =

ˆ

T

Gestão da Manutenção 3

Failure Rate

2. Logarithmic trend

N(T)

λ (T ) ⇒ λˆ = λβ T β −1 (Crow Model)

Gestão da Manutenção 4

Reliability Growth

The first prototypes produced during the development of a new complex system

will contain:

design, manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies.

the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the system's reliability

goal or requirement.

Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective actions (or redesign)

are taken.

of time due to changes in the product's design / manufacturing process.

Gestão da Manutenção 5

Reliability Growth

experience gained from failures and from analysis of the equipment, design,

production and operation processes.

The reliability growth test, analysis and fix concept in design is applied by

uncovering weaknesses during the testing stages and performing appropriate

corrective actions before full-scale production. A corrective action takes place at

the problem and root cause level. Therefore, a failure mode is a problem and

root cause. Reliability growth addresses failure modes.

Gestão da Manutenção 6

Reliability Growth

The initial MTBF is the value actually achieved by the basic reliability tasks.

The growth potential is the MTBF, with the current management strategy, that

can be attained if the test is conducted long enough.

strategy

Gestão da Manutenção 7

Reliability Growth

the most commonly observed type

It involves recording the times-to-failure for the unit(s) under test.

can be applied to a single unit or system or to multiple units or systems

Success/Failure Data

also referred to as discrete or attribute data

It involves recording data from a test for a unit when there are only two

possible outcomes: success or failure.

Gestão da Manutenção 8

HPP NHPP

Expected number of failures N(T)

T T

Gestão da Manutenção 9

Duane Model

model. Therefore, to use this model as 10000.00

Duane

a basis for predicting the reliability Data 1

Developmental

estimating these parameters as a

function of equipment characteristics. 100.00

be estimated for a given data set using 10.00

underlying theory for the Duane Kim Pries

Stoneridge TED

9/12/2006 11:01

100.00 1000.00

priori estimation. Time

Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224

Gestão da Manutenção 10

Duane Model

Slope of tangent λi

λc

Expected number of failures N(T)

N (t ) = t 1−α

1 ( )

b λc = N T = 1 T −α

T b

Slope of chord = λc

ln(λ’s)

d (E ( N (T ))) 1

λi = = (1 − α )T −α = (1 − α )λc

dT b

1 ln(1 − α ) ln(λc )

ln(λi ) = ln (1 − α ) + ln λc = ln (1 − α ) + ln − α ln T

b

ln(λi )

ln(T)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção 11

Duane Model

T

MTBFc =

N (T )

y = mx + c

y = ln(MTBFc )

x = ln(T )

m =α

c = ln b

ln(MTBFc ) = ln b + α ln(T )

MTBFc = bT α

1

MTBFi = MTBFc , α ≠ 1

1−α

α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth.

the earliest time at which the first λc is predicted, or the λc for the

equipment at the start of the design and development process

Gestão da Manutenção 12

Duane Model

α < 0.2 Reliability has low priority (minimum effort on the improvement of

the product’s reliability)

reliability

Both the failure rate or MTBF at time T can be obtained through graphical

extrapolation.

inaccurate when there is a poor

data adjustment

Gestão da Manutenção 13

Crow Model

represented as a Weibull process, allowing for statistical procedures to

be used in the application of this model in reliability growth.

The reliability growth pattern for the Crow model is exactly the same pattern

as for the Duane postulate: the cumulative number of failures is linear when

plotted on ln-ln scale.

Crow model: the failure intensity of the underlying NHPP is linear when

plotted on ln-ln scale.

Gestão da Manutenção 14

Crow Model

ρ(t)=λi(t): failure intensity for the Crow model

of a failure occurring over the interval [t , t + ∆t ] for small ∆t

The expected number of failures experienced over the test interval [0, T]

T

E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt

0

The Crow model assumes that ρ (T ) may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function

β β −1

ρ (t ) = λi (t ) = β

⋅t

η

Gestão da Manutenção 15

Crow Model

1

If λ = β

η

λi (T ) = N (T ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 , with T > 0, λ > 0 and β > 0

d

dT

In the special case of exponential failure times there is no growth (β=1) and the failure

intensity, ρ (T ) , is equal to λ .

T

In this case, the expected number of failures is given by: E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt = λT

0

and Pr[N (T ) = n] = (λ T )n e −λT

; n = 0,1,2,...

n!

T

and Pr[N (T ) = n] =

(λT β ) e λ

n − Tβ

; n = 0,1,2,...

0

n!

= λT β bDUANE =

1

λCROW

α DUANE = 1 − β CROW

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)

Gestão da Manutenção 16

Crow Model

Gestão da Manutenção 17

N (t ) = λ ⋅ T β

ln ( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ ln N(t)

ln( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ

declive β

ln(T)

N (t ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 → λ (T0 ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T0 = N (T0 ) β T0

d β −1

dt

Gestão da Manutenção 18

Crow Model

The probability density function (pdf) of the ith event given that the (i - 1)th event occurred at Ti-1 is:

β

1

(

− β Tiβ −Tiβ−1 )

f (Ti Ti −1 ) = β ⋅ Ti β −1 η

e

η

The likelihood function is β n

β −1 1

β

n

n − ∑ tiβ

L = β ⋅ Π ti

i =1 ⋅ e η i =1

η

where T* is the termination time and is given by:

And differentiating with respect to yields:

Taking the natural log on both sides:

^ N N

λ= =

T *β T0β

Gestão da Manutenção 19

N N

β̂ = N

βˆ = N −1

∑ ln 0 Ti ∑ ln n Ti

T T

i =1 i =1

Gestão da Manutenção 20

MTBF = θˆ(T ) = T N ⋅ βˆ =1 λˆ ⋅ βˆ ⋅ T β −1

ˆ

MTBF = θˆ(T ) = Tn N ⋅ βˆ

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