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Ans. 6 The numbers 0099 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with each event as given below: Daily Demand 0 10 20 30 40 50 Probability 0.01 0.20 0.15 0.50 0.12 0.02 Cumulative Probability 0.01 0.21 0.36 0.86 0.98 1.00 Random Numbers Allocated 0000 0120 2135 3685 86—97 9899
Let us simulate the demand for the next 10 days using the given random numbers in order to find out the stock position if the owner of the bakery decides to make 30 breads every day. We will also estimate the daily average demand for the bread on the basis of simulated data. Day Random Number Simulated Demand Stock if 30 breads are prepared every day 0 0 20 20 20 20 40 60 60 80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
48 78 19 51 56 77 15 14 68 9 Total
30 30 10 30 30 30 10 10 30 10 220
Daily average demand of the basis of simulated data = 22 Ans. 7: The random numbers are established as in Table below: Production Per day 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 probability 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.06 cumulative probability 0.05 0.14 0.26 0.40 0.60 0.75 0.86 0.94 1.00 Random number 0004 0513 1425 2639 4059 6074 7585 8693 9499
using random number table :Type Filling Crown Cleaning Extraction Checkup Probability 0.00 8. of mopeds waiting Opening Balance 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 82 89 78 24 53 61 18 45 04 23 50 77 27 54 10 202 203 202 198 200 201 198 200 196 198 200 202 199 200 197 2 5 7 5 5 6 4 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 No. 8: If the numbers 0099 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with each category of work. of empty spaces in the lorry current current Total excess short waiting Production production 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 4 2 1 3 Total 2 5 7 5 5 6 4 4 0 0 2 1 1 _42 = = 2 __2 __4 2. Random No.2 Based on the 15 random numbers given we simulate the production per day as above in table 2 below. then various kinds of dental work can be sampled.30 9.266 Average number of mopeds waiting Average number of empty spaces in lorry = = 42 15 4 15 Ans.40 0.00 9. Estimated Production Per day No.15 0. a work sheet can now be completed as follows :FUTURE EVENTS PATIENT SCHEDULED ARRIVAL RN CATEGORY SERVICE TIME 1 2 3 4 8.10 0.15 0.20 Random Numbers 0039 4054 5569 7079 8099 Using the given random numbers.80 0.30 40 82 11 34 Crown Checkup Filling Filling 60 minutes 15 minutes 45 minutes 45 minutes .
30 10.30 9.00 11.30 10.05 Random No.00 10.15 9.30 Total Waiting (Minutes) 0 30 15 30 45 60 45 60 285 35.05 0.30 11.) 1 Service Random Cumulative No.30 25 66 17 79 Filling Cleaning Filling Extraction 45 minutes 15 minutes 45 minutes 45 minutes Now.30 11.00 A.0 8.00 8. The average waiting time of a patient was 285 15 = Ans.45 11. STATUS Time 8.30 11.00 9.00 9.30 Event patient arrives 2nd “ arrives 1st departs 3rd “ arrives 2nd departs th 4 “ arrives departs 3rd 5th “ arrives 6th “ arrives 4th departs 7th “ arrives 5th departs 8th “ arrives 6th departs End 1st Number of the patient being served (time to go) 1st(60) 1st(30) 2nd(15) 3rd(45) 3rd(30) 4th(45) 4th(15) 5th(45) 5th(30) 6th(15) 7th(45) 7th(30) 8th(45) Patients waiting 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 5th & 6th 6th 6th & 7th 7th & 8th 8th 8th  The dentist was not idle during the entire simulated period :The waiting times for the patients were as follows :Patient 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Arrival 8.00 12.00 9.00 10.10 0009 .) 1 Arrivals cumulative Probability 0.625 minutes. let us simulate the dentist’s clinic for four hours starting at 8.45 12.45 12. allocated 0004 Time (Mts) Service (Proba. Probability allocated 0.00 11.3 5 6 7 8 10. 9: Random allocation tables are as under: Time Arrival (Mts) (Proba.30 Service Starts 8.30 10.M.10 0.00 10.00 10.15 10.45 11.00 11.30 11.30 9.00 9.
22 9.05 9.06 9.20 0.20 0.25 9.08 9.90 1.18 9.05 0.04 9.10 0.25 0. No. Time Start R.20 0.04 9.16 9.18 9.25 0. probabilities and cumulat ive probabilities are first worked out as shown in the following table: Time between arrivals 1 2 3 4 5 6 Frequency Probability 5 20 35 25 10 5 0.21 9.10 0.10 0.40 0.40 0.14 9.06 9.10 0. Prob.16 9. Ans.90 1. Arrival Mts.31 Waiting Time Clerk 4 1 1 _ 6 Passanger 60 16 08 36 38 07 08 59 53 03 4 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 Total 9.00 1.85 0.25 0.85 0.20 0.11 9.14 9.00 1029 3069 7089 9099 Simulation of ten trails: R.10 0.05 0.25 0.25 9.70 0.25 9.30 0.16 9.00 Total 100 10 The random numbers to various intervals have been allotted in the following table: Time between arrivals Probability Random numbers allotted Service Time Probability Random numbers allotted .95 1.00 Service Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 Frequency 1 2 4 2 1 0 Prob.29 1 1 4 6 In half an hour trial. No.14 9.20 0. 0. the clerk was idle for 6 minutes and the passengers had to wait for 6 minutes. 10: From the frequency distribution of arrivals and service times.05 0.18 9.20 0.08 9.70 0.00 0524 2559 6084 8594 9599 2 3 4 5 0. Prob.05 Cum. Finish Time 09 12 18 65 25 11 79 61 77 10 1 2 2 3 2 2 4 3 4 2 9.10 0.11 9.00 Cum.95 1. 0.08 9.60 0.22 9.35 0.35 0.24 9.10 9.30 0.29 9.4 2 3 4 5 6 0. Time Mts. 0.60 0.
20 0.3 = Number of arrivals 20 56 2.m.07 11.m.46 11.42 11.16 11.57 30 75 38 24 57 09 12 18 65 25 11 79 61 77 10 16 55 52 59 63 3 4 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 4 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 54 Service Clerk Customer Ends Waiting waiting a.42 11.49 11.17 11.25 0.31 11.25 11.38 11.36 11.05 0.20 0.04 11.06 11.10 11.11 11.11 11.35 0.19 11.24 11.40 0.46 11.52 11.27 11.49 11.52 11.35 11. 11.22 11.24 11.27 11.43 11.29 11.44 11.27 11.20 11.22 11.8 minutes 20 Average waiting time per customer = Average service time = 54 2.04 11.7 minutes 20 Ans.32 11.29 11. Time time 11.16 11.00 0009 1029 3069 7089 9099  Simulation Work Sheet Random Time till Number next arrival 64 04 02 70 03 60 16 18 36 38 07 08 59 53 01 62 36 27 97 86 20 4 1 1 4 1 4 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 4 3 3 6 5 57 Arrival Time a. 11: Cumulative frequency distribution for Ramu is derived below.44 11. .40 11.35 11.22 11.46 11.19 11.10 0.52 11.35 11.14 11.19 11.20 11.07 11.29 11.20 0.m.10 0.11 11. Also fitted against it are the eight given random numbers.05 0004 0524 2559 6084 8594 9599 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.15 11. 11.10 0.05 11. In parentheses are shown the serial numbers of random numbers.14 11.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.38 11.31 11.55 12.00 04 2 6 2 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 6 4 3 3 56 Time spend by customer in system 3 6 8 6 8 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 6 7 8 6 6 6 3 3 Length of waiting line 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 26 Average queue length = Number of customers in waiting line 26 1.57 Service Random Service begins number time a.
Col1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Col2 4 9 15 22 32 40 46 50 Col3 8 18 30 44 64 80 92 100 97 (5) 25 (4) 36 (1) 55 (3) 76 (2) 34 (8) 56 (7) 41 (6) (2× Col2) (Note that cumulative frequency has been multiplied by 2 in column 3 so that all the given random numbers are utilized). 70. 10 and 10 respectively. Raju’s times are: 40. Thus. 60. 4 is consistently greater than Co. Like wise we can derive eight times for Raju also.6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 4 10 20 40 80 91 96 100 01 (2) 14 (1) 44 (4) 82 (6) 95 (3) 00 (7) 03 (8) 61 (5) Thus the eight times are: 30. no subsequent waiting is involved. 60.2. 30. Ans. 1 Ramu 30 10 70 50 50 60 10 10 2 Cum. the rain distribution & the random no allocation are given below: . 12: The numbers 0099 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with each event. if any. If it rained on the previous day. Ramu’s and Raju’s times are shown below to observe for waiting time. 50 and 40 seconds respectively. 80 40. 50. 50. Times 30 40 110 160 210 270 280 290 3 Raju Initial 40 60 50 30 80 40 70 40 4 Raju’s cumulative time with included 70 130 180 210 290 330 400 440 30 seconds Since col. 10.
if it did not rain the previous day.75 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.00 0074 7589 9095 9699 Table 2. B and C defects are 0.7 Event Probability Cumulative Probability 0.25 0.15.90 0.05 0. The total rain fall during the period was 5 cm.95 0.10 respectively.98 1.90 0.75 0.96 1. 0. the necessary distribution and the random number allocation is given below: Event Probability Cumulative Random Probability numbers Assigned No rain 1 cm rain 2 cm rain 3 0.50 0.04 0.75 0.50 0. Ans. So. For the first day it is assumed that it had not rained the day before: Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Random Numbers 67 63 39 55 29 78 70 06 78 76 Event No rain No rain No rain No rain No rain 1 cm rain 1 cm rain No rain 1 cm rain 2 cm rain (from table 2) (from table 2) (from table 2) (from table 2) (from table 2) (from table 2) (from table 1) (from table 1) (from table 2) (from table 1) Hence.00 Random numbers Assigned 0049 5074 7589 9094 9597 9899 No rain 1 cm rain 2 cm rain 3 cm rain 4 cm rain 5 cm rain 0. it did not rain on 6 days out of 10 days. during the simulated period.03 0.13: The probabilities of occurrence of A.20 and 0.No rain on previous day Let us now simulate the rain fall for 10 days using the given random numbers. tile numbers 0099 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with each of the three defects DefectA DefectB DefectC Exists Random Exists? Random Exists? Random Numbers numbers numbers Assigned assigned assigned Yes 0014 yes 0019 yes 0009 No 1599 No 2099 no 1099 .02 Table 1 – Rain on previous day Similarly.
10 0. Stock in hand 8 5 9 6 Qty. the number of items scrapped and the total minutes of rework time required: Item RN for RN for RN for whether Rework Remarks No. It is given that stock n hand = 8 and stock on order = 6 (expected next day).45 0. At end of the day 6 Total Qty. 0004 0514 1544 4589 9099 Based on the ten random numbers given.30 0.05 0. on order 6 5 Closing Stock 1 2 3 4 89 34 78 63 3 2 3 3 5 5 9 6 3 .05 0. the following solution can be worked out: First of all.C 15+30 =45 During the simulated period. Answer 14: The question is not happily worded. random numbers 0099 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with demand as given below: Demand 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 0. Sales Demand Op. one item was scrapped and 90 minutes of total rework time was required by 3 items.10 Cum. when the inventory at the beginning of the day plus orders outstanding is less than 8 books: Day Random No. Recd. Order Qty. we simulate the demand per day in the table given below. defect A defect B defect C any defect time (in Exists minutes) 1 48 47 82 none 2 555 36 95 none 3 91 57 18 none 4 40 04 96 B 15 5 93 79 20 None 6 01 55 84 A Scrap 7 83 10 56 B 15 8 63 13 11 B 15 9 47 57 52 None 10 52 09 03 B. 5 out of the ten items had no defects.45 0.00 Random Nos. Let us now consider both the options stated in the question. Probability 0.8 Let us now simulate the output of the assembly line for 10 items using the given random numbers in order to determine the number of items without any defect.90 1.15 0. Option A: Order 5 Books. if we go by the language of the question.
there is stock out position since 5 units will be received at the end of the day and demand occurring during the day can not be met. it is not possible to proceed further and we may leave the answer at this stage. on order 6 8 8 Closing Stock 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 89 34 78 63 61 81 39 16 13 73 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 8  5 9 6 3 0 Now on day 6. the solution will be as follows: Stock in hand = 8 and stock on order = 6 (expected next day) Random No. Hence. Recd. Sales Demand Opening Stock in hand 8 5 9 6 3 0 Qty. At end of the day 6 5 5 5 Total Qty. Random No. Order Qty. Alternatively. Sales Demand Opening Stock in hand 8 5 9 6 3 0 2 0 3 7 Qty. if we assume that the demand occurring during the day can be met out of stock received at the end of the day. it will into be possible to proceed further and we will have to leave the answer at this stage. there is stock out position since 8 units will be received at the end of the day and demand occurring during the day can not be met. Hence. on order 6 5 5 5 10 5 5 Closing Stock 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 89 34 78 63 61 81 39 16 13 73 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 5 5 5 5 5 9 6 3 0 2 0 3 7 4 . At end of the day 6 8 Total Qty. Recd. Order Qty.9 5 6 7 8 9 10 61 81 39 16 13 73 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 0 0  5 0 Now on day 6.
42.15 Demand (Tons) 1 2 3 4 OptionI RN Demand Probability 0. Order Qty. Recd. Allocated 0014 1544 4589 9099 Order 5 5 5 5 5 Cl.40.50 = Rs.22.Stock on Order 5 5 5 10 5 5 5 5 Random Nos. on order 6 8 8 8 8 Closing Stock 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 89 34 78 63 61 81 39 16 13 73 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 8 8  5 9 6 3 0 5 3 1 8 5 Carrying Cost = 45 × 0. when the inventory at the beginning of the day plus orders outstanding is less than 8 books: Random No.50 Ordering Cost = 4 × 10 = Rs.15 0.00 Total Cost = Rs.45 0.19.50 Ordering Cost = 2 × 10 = Rs..00 Total Cost = Rs.50 Since Option B has lower cost.45 0. Ans. Sales Demand Opening Stock in hand 8 5 9 6 3 0 5 3 1 8 Qty.20.50 Option B: Order 8 Books.Stock on Order 6 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 5 88 41 67 63 48 74 27 16 11 64 49 21 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 .30 0. At end of the day 6 8 8 Total Qty. Manager should order 8 books.50 = Rs.00 Closing Stock 5 9 6 3 0 2 0 3 7 4 1 4 Op.90 1.59.10  Carrying Cost = 39 × 0.15 0.10 Opening Stock 8 5 9 6 3 0 2 0 3 7 4 1 Receipts 6 5 5 5 5 Cumulative Probability 0.
25 0.Stock on Order 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 (Rs.96 1.18 0.18 0.) No of order placed 5 Ordering cost Closing Stock Carrying cost Total OptionII RN Demand 88 41 67 63 48 74 27 16 11 64 49 21 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 (5x1000) 44 (44x50) 5.Stock on Order 8 8 8 8 8 8 Order 8 8 8 Cl.000 2.90 0.75 0.15 0.350 5.50 0.350 Opening Stock 8 5 9 6 3 0 5 3 1 8 5 2 Receipts 6 8 8  No of orders 3 Closing stock 47 Ordering cost 3 x 1000 Carrying cost 47x50 Total Analysis: Since the cost of inventory is less in Option II.11  44 (Rs. 16 (i) Allocation of random numbers Demand 0<300 300 < 600 600 < 900 900 < 1200 1200 <1500 1500 < 1800 Probability 0.00 Allocated RN 00—17 18—49 50—74 75—89 90—95 96—99 (ii) Simulation: twelve months sales. Ans.) Loss on lost units .) Net (Rs. monthly and annual profit/loss Month RN Demand Sold Return Profit on sales (Rs.06 0.200 Closing Stock 5 9 6 3 0 5 3 1 8 5 2 0 47 Op.200 7.32 0. it is suggested to implement.) Loss on return (Rs.000 2.) 3.04 Cumulative probability 0..
. Prob. Ans.12  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 15 56 17 98 71 51 32 62 83 96 69 450 150 750 150 1650 750 750 450 750 1050 1650 750 450 150 750 150 750 750 750 450 750 750 750 750 300 600 600 300  3375 1125 5625 1125 5625 5625 5625 3375 5625 5625 5625 5625 54000 12000 2400 2400 1200 7200 2175 1275 5625 1275 5625 5625 2175 5625 5625 5625 5625 5625 46800 2100 300 900 900 (iii) Loss on lost sale 2100×7. Availability (Kg.92 1.00 Random Numbers allocated 0007 0817 1855 5685 8699 Demand (Kg) 10 20 30 40 50 Prob.18 0. Cum.32 0.10 0.20 0.22 0.56 0.5 = Rs15750. 31 63 15 07 43 81 Supply availability 30 40 20 10 30 40 Random no.38 0. the selling price is Rs.10 0.86 1.00 Random number allocated 0009 1031 3271 7291 9299 0.08 0.) 10 20 30 40 50 Prob. loss on any unsatisfied demand is Rs. 18 84 32 32 75 27 Demand Buying cost Rs. Cum.20 per kg.72 0. 600 800 400 200 600 800 Selling cost Rs. Prob.10 0.08 Let us simulate the supply and demand for the next six days using the given random numbers in order to find the profit if the cost of the commodity is Rs. Day Random no.30 0.8 per kg and unsold commodities at the end of the day have no saleable value.30 per kg. 0.14 0.40 0. the net profit of the retailer is = (400 + 40 + 220) – (60 + 200) . The numbers 0099 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with each event. 17 The demand and supply patterns yield the following probability distribution. 600 1200 600 300 900 600 Loss for unsatisfied demand 160 160 80 Profit 1 2 3 4 5 6 20 40 40 30 40 20 400 40 60 220 200 During the simulated period of six days.08 0. 0.
83 (ii) Total Shortfall is Rs.35 0.Payments Probability Cum.25 1.90 crores (iii) There will be a shortfall in 5 months i.15 0.. 39.85 0.42 .00 Random No. In crores) 33 60 39 57 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Op. In crores) 30 42 36 99 Amount (Rs.25 0.6.5. Interval 0019 2059 6084 8599 Random No. Therefore average shortfall is 399 ÷ 12 = Rs.20 0.75 0.8. Interval 0014 1534 3574 7599 Cl. (in crores) 17 30 78 57 43 42 16 60 74 36 35 39 31 42 23 60 72 36 44 39 46 42 92 57 51 42 58 39 68 36 8 33 93 99 58 39 54 42 78 57 96 99 54 39 9 30 77 57 (i) Probability is = 10 ÷ 12 = 0.e. Probability 0.60 0. therefore the probability is 5 ÷ 12 = 0. Coding Table .Receipts Probability Cum. Probability 0.00 Random No.15 1.20 0. 19: Amount (Rs. (in crores) No.Balance 15 12 30 33 51 54 69 66 63 3 18 42 Random No. average shortfall is 399 ÷ 10 = Rs. Coding Table .7. 33. 399 crores.40 0. 4.13  = = 660 – 260 Rs.20 0.40 0.Balance 12 30 33 51 54 69 66 63 3 18 42 15 Simulation Table Receipts Payments Random Amount Random Amount No.400 Ans.15 0.25 crores Alternatively.
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