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Incidence of COVID-19 is increasing in several provinces, most rapidly in
Quebec, Ontario and Alberta
BC AB SK
Number of cases per 100 000 population
MB ON QC
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Each new case in Canada is spreading infection to more than one person
2 When Rt is
consistently >1, the
1.5
epidemic is growing
1 Since mid-August,
Canada’s Rt has been
increasing and has
0.5
remained >1
0
2020-03-20
2020-03-27
2020-04-03
2020-04-10
2020-04-17
2020-04-24
2020-05-01
2020-05-08
2020-05-15
2020-05-22
2020-05-29
2020-06-05
2020-06-12
2020-06-19
2020-06-26
2020-07-03
2020-07-10
2020-07-17
2020-07-24
2020-07-31
2020-08-07
2020-08-14
2020-08-21
2020-08-28
2020-09-04
2020-09-11
2020-09-18
2020-09-25
2020-10-02
Data as of October 7th, 2020
Calculations are based on date of case report
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Higher incidence of COVID-19 in more regions across the country
>
5
Incidence of COVID-19 has remained highest among younger age groups
80+ years
Number of cases per
100 000 population
20 to 39 years
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Rapid detection and response to outbreaks remain key to preventing spread
in at risk populations
Average number of cases per outbreak
Number of outbreaks by setting (July to September)
500
4.3 Corrections/shelter/congregate living
450 13.7 Healthcare
12.1 Industrial (including agricultural)
400 5.8 Long term care and retirement residences
3.3 School & childcare centres*
Number of outbreaks
300
250
200
150
100
50
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Hospitalizations have increased along with the increase in reported cases
Number of cases in hospital daily, per 100 000 population
July 1 to October 7, 2020
6
Number of cases per 100,000 population
0
01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 02-Sep 09-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 07-Oct
BC AB SK MB ON QC
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Short-term forecast suggests continued accelerated growth
Number of cases Number of deaths
Cumulative cases predicted to October 17: Cumulative deaths predicted to October 17:
188,150 to 197,830 9,690 to 9,800
(+114)
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Long-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now
increase
rate of contacts by 20% – the
epidemic is forecast to
resurge faster and stronger:
Orange line
decrease
• If we decrease our current
rate of contacts by 25% to
35% – the epidemic is
forecast to come under
control in most locations:
Methods: Anderson SC, Edwards AM, Yerlanov M, Mulberry N, Stockdale J, Iyaniwura SA, Falcao RC, Otterstatter Blue line
MC, Irvine MA, Janjua NZ, Coombs D, Colijn C. 2020. Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a
Bayesian model of physical distancing. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086v1
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Acting fast is important when and where strategic closures are needed
Measures not re-implemented Slow to re-implement measures
Daily incidence per 100,000 people
80
*These model scenarios are run with numerous
60
simulations to account for the ranges of possible values of
40
some parameters (e.g. duration of infectivity). Each
simulation is depicted by a different colour and the black
20 line denotes the average projection of these simulations.
0
Feb April July Oct Jan April July Oct Jan *Green bar represents the period of time where restrictive
2020 2021 2022
measures were in place during the spring.
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Stay up to date on your local COVID-19 situation
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/covidtrends/
What matters most this fall is the actions of
individual Canadians to limit our contacts and
opportunities for the virus to spread
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Protect loved ones this Thanksgiving long weekend
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