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SW Poll Memo v2 (9326)

According to a statewide poll conducted between October 7-12 by Steven J. Vancore, Andrew F. Jones, and Kari A. Headings: The poll surveyed 550 likely voters across gender, party registration, age, race, and geography with a margin of error of ±4.18%. The results showed Biden beating Trump 47% to 40% with an even party registration model, and 46% to 41% with a conservative +2 Republican model.

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Jacob Ogles
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10K views

SW Poll Memo v2 (9326)

According to a statewide poll conducted between October 7-12 by Steven J. Vancore, Andrew F. Jones, and Kari A. Headings: The poll surveyed 550 likely voters across gender, party registration, age, race, and geography with a margin of error of ±4.18%. The results showed Biden beating Trump 47% to 40% with an even party registration model, and 46% to 41% with a conservative +2 Republican model.

Uploaded by

Jacob Ogles
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Statewide Polling Results

Prepared by: Steven J. Vancore



Andrew F. Jones

Kari A. Headings

October 14, 2020



Methodology
‣ October 7th — October 12th
‣ Polling Type: Live Caller
‣ Combination of 550 likely voting frequent and infrequent voters statewide
‣ Sample balanced by gender, party registration, age, race, and geography
‣ Margin of Error ± 4.18% at the 95% confidence level

Key Takeaways
1. Using an even party registration model (39% REP / 39% DEM / 22% Other-NPA) results show Biden (47%)
beating Trump (40%) by 7points, with 4% of respondents voting for “someone else” and 9% still
undecided.
Unweighted Presidential Ballot Toplines

Trump 40%
Biden 47%
Someone Else 4%
Undecided 9%

2. Even under a conservative +2R model, which is closer to previous General Election turnout, (40% REP /
38% DEM / 22% Other-NPA), results would still have Biden winning by 5points. The number of NPA
respondents in the sample remained 121 throughout weighting.

Weighted Presidential Ballot Toplines

Candidate +2 REP EVEN +2 DEM

Trump 41% 40% 39%


Biden 46% 47% 48%
Someone Else 4% 4% 4%
Undecided 9% 9% 9%

Statewide Poll — Key Takeaways — October 14, 2020


Clearview Polling and Research, LLC 906 Thomasville Road, Tallahassee, Florida 32303 T 850.681.8530 http://clearview-research.com
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