Montana Statewide

A Survey of Likely Nov 2020 Voters

Conducted October 15-20, 2020
N=500; Margin of Error: 4.4%

[PHONE] Hello, may I please speak with (NAME ON LIST)? My name is __________ from __________, a public opinion polling firm. We are
conducting a short survey about some issues people have been talking about lately. We’re not selling anything and I will not ask for a donation at any
time. It will take only a few minutes and all responses will be anonymous and used only for research purposes.

[WEB]1 Montana Opinion Surveys is conducting a scientific research study of Montana residents. All responses are confidential and for research
purposes only.

1. Which of the following best describes your age?

18-34 .................................................................................................................................... 18%

35-49 .................................................................................................................................... 22
50-64 .................................................................................................................................... 27
65+ ....................................................................................................................................... 33
--
Younger than 18 ................................................................................................................... TERMINATE
DK/REF ................................................................................................................................ TERMINATE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2. Are you currently registered to vote at your home address in Montana?

Yes, registered to vote in Montana ........................................................................................ 100%

--
No, not registered to vote in Montana ................................................................................... TERMINATE
DK/REF ................................................................................................................................ TERMINATE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

3. What is your gender? (ROTATE)

Male...................................................................................................................................... 48%
Female ................................................................................................................................. 52
--
DK/REF ................................................................................................................................ TERMINATE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

4. How would you describe your race? (RANDOMIZE)

White or Caucasian............................................................................................................... 92%

Mixed race ............................................................................................................................ 4
Native American or Alaska Native ......................................................................................... 2
Hispanic or Latino ................................................................................................................. 1
Asian or Pacific Islander........................................................................................................ 1
Black or African American ..................................................................................................... *
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. TERMINATE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

5. Do you or does anyone in your household work in any of the following industries?

Farming and ranching ........................................................................................................... 11%

Oil and gas ........................................................................................................................... 2
Tourism ................................................................................................................................ 2
None of these ....................................................................................................................... 84
--
News media .......................................................................................................................... TERMINATE
Politics .................................................................................................................................. TERMINATE
[PHONE] DK/REF / [WEB] Prefer not to answer .................................................................. TERMINATE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1
For clarity, only the phone version of the question language is displayed in the topline data.

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. STUDY 20-700

 Montana Statewide
A Survey of Likely Nov 2020 Voters
Conducted October 15-20, 2020
N=500; Margin of Error: 4.4%

6. As you may know, there will be a general election in November for President, U.S. Senate, Congress, Governor, and other state offices. How
likely are you to vote in that general election in November?

Already voted ........................................................................................................................ 61%

Almost certain to vote ........................................................................................................... 38
Probably will vote .................................................................................................................. 1
About 50-50 .......................................................................................................................... -
-- ...........................................................................................................................................
Not very likely ....................................................................................................................... TERMINATE
Not likely at all....................................................................................................................... TERMINATE
DK/REF ................................................................................................................................ TERMINATE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, I’m going to read you a list of some public figures you may have heard of and I’d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each one. If you don’t recognize the name, or if you recognize the name but do not have
an opinion, please just say so and we will move to the next name. Here is the first one...

Recog;
TOTAL TOTAL Very Smwt Smwt Very Don’t DK/
ROTATE ALL No
FAV UNFAV Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Recog. REF
Opin

7. Donald Trump 51% 46% 42% 9% 2% 44% 1% 1% 2%

8. Steve Bullock 51% 43% 35 16 8 36 3 1 2

9. Steve Daines 49% 44% 32 17 9 35 3 3 2

10. Joe Biden 45% 52% 28 16 4 48 1 1 2

11. Kathleen Williams 44% 39% 29 15 9 30 7 8 2

12. Greg Gianforte 44% 48% 29 15 7 41 4 2 2

13. Mike Cooney 40% 39% 20 20 9 29 8 10 4

14. Matt Rosendale 39% 43% 19 19 11 33 9 5 4

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Turning back to the election…

15. If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) <Democrat Joe Biden>, <Republican Donald Trump>, or
<Libertarian Jo Jorgensen>, for whom would you be voting? Or, if you have already voted, who did you vote for?

BIDEN .................................................................................................................................. 43%

TRUMP ................................................................................................................................. 51%
JORGENSEN ....................................................................................................................... 3%

Democrat Joe Biden ............................................................................................................. 42%

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Democrat Joe Biden................................................. 1

Republican Donald Trump .................................................................................................... 49

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Republican Donald Trump........................................ 1

Libertarian Jo Jorgensen....................................................................................................... 2
I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Libertarian Jo Jorgensen .......................................... 1
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 4
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. STUDY 20-700

 Montana Statewide
A Survey of Likely Nov 2020 Voters
Conducted October 15-20, 2020
N=500; Margin of Error: 4.4%

16. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) <Democrat Steve Bullock> or <Republican Steve
Daines>, for whom would you be voting? Or, if you have already voted, who did you vote for?

BULLOCK ............................................................................................................................ 47%

DAINES ................................................................................................................................ 48%

Democrat Steve Bullock ........................................................................................................ 46%

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Democrat Steve Bullock ........................................... 1

Republican Steve Daines ...................................................................................................... 47

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Republican Steve Daines ......................................... 2
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 5
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

17. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) <Democrat Kathleen Williams> or
<Republican Matt Rosendale>, for whom would you be voting? Or, if you have already voted, who did you vote for?

WILLIAMS ............................................................................................................................ 46%

ROSENDALE ....................................................................................................................... 46%

Democrat Kathleen Williams ................................................................................................. 44%

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Democrat Kathleen Williams .................................... 2

Republican Matt Rosendale .................................................................................................. 44

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Republican Matt Rosendale ..................................... 3
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 8
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

18. If the election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) <Democrat Mike Cooney>, <Republican Greg Gianforte>, or
<Libertarian Lyman Bishop>, for whom would you be voting? Or, if you have already voted, who did you vote for?

COONEY .............................................................................................................................. 41%

GIANFORTE ........................................................................................................................ 48%
BISHOP ................................................................................................................................ 4%

Democrat Mike Cooney ........................................................................................................ 40%

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Democrat Mike Cooney............................................ 1

Republican Greg Gianforte ................................................................................................... 46

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Republican Greg Gianforte....................................... 2

Libertarian Lyman Bishop ..................................................................................................... 3

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Libertarian Lyman Bishop......................................... 1
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 7
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

19. And if the election for Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) <Democrat Melissa
Romano>, <Republican Elsie Arntzen>, or <Libertarian Kevin Leatherbarrow>, for whom would you be voting? Or, if you have already voted,
who did you vote for?

ROMANO ............................................................................................................................. 41%

ARNTZEN ............................................................................................................................ 39%
LEATHERBARROW ............................................................................................................ 5%

Democrat Melissa Romano ................................................................................................... 39%

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Democrat Melissa Romano ...................................... 2

Republican Elsie Arntzen ...................................................................................................... 36

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Republican Elsie Arntzen ......................................... 3

Libertarian Kevin Leatherbarrow ........................................................................................... 4

I’m undecided, but I’m leaning towards Libertarian Kevin Leatherbarrow .............................. 1
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 16
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. STUDY 20-700

 Montana Statewide
A Survey of Likely Nov 2020 Voters
Conducted October 15-20, 2020
N=500; Margin of Error: 4.4%

We’re almost done. I’m going to read you a short list of public officials. Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing.

TOTAL TOTAL Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly

ROTATE ALL DK/ REF
APPROVE DISAPPROVE Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove

20. Do you approve or disapprove

of the job Steve Bullock is
doing as Governor? 55% 40% 36% 19% 9% 31% 5%

21. Do you approve or disapprove

of the job Steve Daines is
doing as U.S. Senator? 51% 42% 29 22 11 31 7

22. Do you approve or disapprove

of the job Greg Gianforte is
doing as Congressman? 49% 44% 25 24 10 34 7

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

This is the last part. These last few questions are just for statistical purposes.

23. Regardless of who you plan to vote for, as of today, do you consider yourself (ROTATE) <a Republican>, <a Democrat>, or an independent?

DEMOCRAT ......................................................................................................................... 37%

REPUBLICAN ...................................................................................................................... 46%

A strong Democrat ................................................................................................................ 20%

A not-so-strong Democrat ..................................................................................................... 5
Independent, but lean more Democratic................................................................................ 13

Independent, no lean whatsoever ......................................................................................... 12

Independent, but lean more Republican ................................................................................ 11

A not-so-strong Republican................................................................................................... 6
A strong Republican.............................................................................................................. 29
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 4
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

24. Politically speaking, would you say you are… (PINWHEEL ROTATE)

Very liberal............................................................................................................................ 12%

Somewhat liberal .................................................................................................................. 16

Moderate .............................................................................................................................. 22

Somewhat conservative ........................................................................................................ 21

Very conservative ................................................................................................................. 23
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 5
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

25. What is the highest level of education you have fully completed?

Some high school or less ...................................................................................................... 2%

High school graduate or GED ............................................................................................... 19
Some college or an Associates degree ................................................................................. 41
Bachelors degree .................................................................................................................. 24
Postgraduate or advanced degree ........................................................................................ 14
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. *
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. STUDY 20-700

 Montana Statewide
A Survey of Likely Nov 2020 Voters
Conducted October 15-20, 2020
N=500; Margin of Error: 4.4%

26. How do you plan to vote this year? Or, if you’ve already voted, how did you vote?

In-person on Election Day ..................................................................................................... 11%

In-person during an early vote period .................................................................................... 10
Using an absentee ballot....................................................................................................... 74
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 5
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

27. In the 2016 election for President, did you vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Green candidate Jill Stein, or
Libertarian Gary Johnson? Or did you not vote in the 2016 presidential election?

Democrat Hillary Clinton ....................................................................................................... 30%

Republican Donald Trump .................................................................................................... 47
Green Party candidate Jill Stein ............................................................................................ 3
Libertarian Gary Johnson ...................................................................................................... 5
I did not vote in this election .................................................................................................. 8
--
DK/NA/REFUSED................................................................................................................. 7
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That completes our survey. Thank you VERY MUCH for your time.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

REGION
Billings / Far East .................................................................................................................. 23%
Butte / Helena ....................................................................................................................... 29
Great Falls ............................................................................................................................ 16
Missoula ............................................................................................................................... 32

MODE
Live landline.......................................................................................................................... 28%
Live cell ................................................................................................................................ 33
Voter file-based text-to-web .................................................................................................. 39

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. STUDY 20-700