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N I K E , Inc.

(NKE)

Investment report by Jason Lancellotti and Paolo Ruiz

C O MPAN Y O V ER V IE W
Nike, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 when 7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI2UHJRQ¶VWUDFNDQGILHOGFRDFK%LOO
Bowerman, and his star runner, Phil Knight, thought they could better design and sell shoes to
runners than what was available at the time. It is headquartered in Washington County, Oregon.

Nike is many things ± a product designer, a consumer goods manufacturer, a brand
communicator, a leader in corporate responsibility, and a portfolio of authentic footwear,
apparel, and equipment brands. In each business Nike focuses on one thing ± innovation.

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quality footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessory products. Nike is the largest seller of athletic
footwear and athletic apparel in the world. The Company sells its products to retail accounts,
including stores and internet sales, and through a mix of independent contractors. Virtually all
footwear and apparel products are manufactured outside the United States, while equipment
products are produced both in the United States and abroad.

I N V EST M E N T T H ESIS
Nike has positioned itself to realize considerable growth LQWKHIXWXUH$VWKHZRUOG¶VODUJHVW
footwear and apparels manufacturing company by revenues, it achieves significant economies of
scale and scope among its manufacturing, distributing, and sales processes that leads to healthy
margins. Furthermore, the Company has moved aggressively into several emerging markets
worldwide, making sure that the brand is widely recognizable as competitors begin to saturate
WKHVHPDUNHWV7KH&RPSDQ\¶VZHOO-diversified mix of products provides protection from
adverse changes in any one product or geographic market, allowing Nike to properly and
confidently adjust to ever-changing consumer demands. Furthermore, when considering the
growth opportunities for the Company embedded in the price, we found the market price to be
fairly priced at $62.95, leading us to believe it is a hold.

We conducted a discounted cash flow for the Company, which we believe to be the most
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volatile data collected in 2009 or over the trailing twelve months ended April 2010. Furthermore,
no comparable company amply represents Nike on revenues and market capitalization scales.
The relative valuation is, however, helpful as a check to see if our fair value estimate is feasible.
2XUEHVWHVWLPDWHRI1LNH¶VVKDUHSULFHXVLQJDGLVFRXQWHGFDVKIORZYDOXDWLRQLV70.71,
signaling that the market is undervaluing the stock. This analysis parallels the results found using
the less reliable relative valuation, which gives us more confidence in the strength of our
decision.

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As owners, we do not want profits merely through capital gains. Nike management focuses on
significant payouts to shareholders, totaling an average of 79% of earnings since 2005, in the
form of dividends and repurchases, which makes its stock quite desirable. Nike pays quarterly
dividends and gradually increases its dividend payouts. In 2009 Nike increased dividends 11
percent from 2008 to 2009, from $0.88/share to $0.98/share, and its dividend yield increased one
tenth of a percent over the same time period from 1.4 percent to 1.5 percent.

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Based on a discounted cash flow and relative valuation analyses we suggest that Nike was fairly
priced by the market at $62.95/share and find it a and strategic investment to gain exposure to the
consumer discretionary sector as part of a diversified portfolio. On February 11, 2010 we
purchased Nike shares at $62.95. As of April 9, 2010, due in large part to third quarter earnings
growth, 1LNH¶VVWRck rose to $75.18. This is a holding period return of 19 percent, annualized to
117 percent. Considering our discounted cash flow analysis and relative valuations we believe
the April 9 price is fairly valued to slightly overvalued. We would consider Nike stock to be a
buy at $55 and sell at $90.

B USI N ESS D ESC R IP T I O NS
Products

1LNH¶VDWKOHWLFIRRWZHDUSURGXFWVWKHOHDGLQJUHYHQXHsegment, are designed primarily for, but
not restricted to, specific athletic use. The main emphasis that the Company places on its
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top-selling footwear categories are running, training, basketball, and soccer. Other footwear
categories include aquatic activities, baseball, cheerleading, football, golf, lacrosse, outdoor
activities, skateboarding, tennis, volleyball, walking, wrestling, and other athletic and
recreational uses.

Nike sells sports apparel and accessories relevant to each sport mentioned above as well as
sports-inspired lifestyle apparel, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, protective
equipment, basic sport equipment, etc. Apparel and accessories for most sports are designed to
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same marketing and distribution channels. It is often the case that Nike designs unique footwear
styles for each sport, and apparel and accessories for each sport follow suit on that style. Nike
also markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos.

In addition to selling products directly to consumers, Nike enters into license agreements that
permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell various apparel, equipment, and accessory
items, such as swimwear, cKLOGUHQ¶VDSSDUHOWUDLQLQJHTXLSPHQWH\HZHDUHOHFWURQLFGHYLFHV
and golf accessories.

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under other brand names in particular markets. Nike wholly-owns five footwear and apparel
companies that specialize in different sports: Cole Haan, Converse Inc., Hurley International
LLC, Umbro Ltd., and Nike Golf. Combined, these subsidiaries accounted for 13 percent of total
revenues, $2.5 billion, in fiscal 2009.

Cole Haan, headquartered in Yarmouth, Maine, designs and distributes
dress and casual footwear, apparel and accessories for men and women
under the brand names Cole Haan® and Bragano®.

Converse, headquartered in North Andover, Massachusetts, designs,
distributes, and licenses athletic and casual footwear, apparel and accessories
under the Converse®, Chuck Taylor®, All Star®, One Star®, and Jack
Purcell® trademarks.

Hurley, headquartered in Costa Mesa, California, designs and distributes a
line of action sports apparel for surfing, skateboarding, and snowboarding,
youth lifestyle apparel, and accessories under the Hurley® trademark.

Umbro, headquartered in Manchester, England, designs, distributes and
licenses athletic and casual footwear, apparel and equipment, primarily for
the sport of soccer, under the Umbro® trademark.

Nike Golf, headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon, designs and markets golf
equipment, apparel, balls, footwear, bags and accessories worldwide.

M anufacturing Footwear

Virtually all of Nike¶VIRRWZHDULVPDQXIDFWXUHGRXWVLGHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFactories in China,
Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand produced 98 percent of total Nike brand footwear in 2009.
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Nike makes substantial use of its futures ordering program. M anufacturing A pparel Nike brand apparel is also manufactured almost entirely outside of the United States. and water and heat resistant fabrics. however this did not fully alleviate 4 . NIKE IHM (In House Manufacturing). Nike apparel is manufactured by independent FRQWUDFWPDQXIDFWXUHUVORFDWHGLQFRXQWULHV1LNH¶V largest apparel factory accounted for five percent of 2009 apparel production. affects the overall level of demand. Including currency changes. 2010. The first two quarters of 2010 were not favorable to 1LNH¶VWRSDQGERWWRPOLQHSHUIRUPDQFH6HFRQGTXDUWHU year to date revenues dropped eight percent and net income dropped one percent. which produces synthetic rubbers and polyurethane films. apparel and equipment. coaches. G E O G R A P H I C A N A L YSIS 1LNH¶V2010 fiscal year ends May 31. the relative popularity of various sports and related products. was the largest supplier of foam and cushioning components. developing new products. plastic compounds. plastic and metal hardware. The main materials used in Nike apparel are natural and synthetic fabrics and threads. Nike aggressively contracts with highly successful and influential athletes. and leagues. teams. To help market its products. foam cushioning PDWHULDOVQ\ORQOHDWKHUFDQYDVDQGSRO\XUHWKDQHILOPVXVHGIRUFXVKLRQLQJFRPSRQHQWV1LNH¶V wholly-owned subsidiary. A key imperative for Nike is to immediately adjust for continuous changes in consumer demands. as well as shifting design trends.The main materials used in Nike footwear are rubber. during the first two quarters of 2010 Nike realized revenue losses in all regions. Third quarter revenues of 2010 outperformed the same quarter of 2009 by seven percent.QRI1LNH¶V8nited States wholesale footwear shipments were made under the futures program. Because Nike is a consumer products company. Sales and M ar keting Nike is exposed to several demand factors in various geographic and product markets. The mix of product sales may vary considerably as a result of changes in seasonal and geographic demand for particular types of footwear. In an effort to stay competitive and retain dominant market shares. Nike actively responds to trends and shifts in consumer preferences by adjusting the mix of existing product offerings. and influencing sports and fitness preferences through aggressive marketing. which allows retailers to order five to six months in advance of delivery with the commitment that their orders will be delivered within DVHWWLPHSHULRGDWDIL[HGSULFH. styles and categories.

40.>>. Nike utilizes 20 sales offices in the United States.637819.888 16% 26% 2. The five wholly-owned subsidiaries comprised 13 percent of total revenue in 2009.168 13% Total 19. Asia) 5.512 29% -2% 5. at 18 percent annually on averageUHIOHFWLQJWKH&RPSDQ\¶VVXFFHVVLQLWVGLYHUVLILFDWLRQVWUDWHJ\ !"#$%&$'()#*#$+#. International sales accounted for 58 percent of total revenues in 2009. cumulative brand sales in the United States accounted for approximately 42 percent of total revenues./012 &!!! 3435. but is attributable almost entirely to reductions in goodwill and intangible asset impairments.8.132 38% EMEA (Europe. particularly in the Asia Pacific and Americas regions.627 100% 14% 16.5>0=@ 5>0=. The Company operates 14 international distribution centers and sells to more than 28. From 2003 to 2009.285 7% 10% 1.629 30% 18% 4.165 6% 20% 967 6% Other Businesses 2.> ! #!!# #!!% #!!' #!!) #!"! 5 .(-./012 "!!! E?F./012 $!!! #!!! 5D. Third quarter net income increased 21 percent year to date.08 YoY 2008 Total 08 . In 2009.326 100% Nike recognizes significant growth opportunities in emerging markets. Other Businesses worldwide has also grown tremendously over the past six years. as third quarter 2010 year to date revenues were down four percent. eight percent of which was realized in the United States Region.543 34% 2% 6. Nike branch offices are located in over 50 countries..losses in the prior two quarters.296 14% Americas Region 1. Middle East.<.415 34% 5% 6.000 retail accounts outside the United States. and sells to more than 23.-.()#'&/$(01223 (!!! '!!! *+.-. total revenue growth for both regions was 144 percent. % of % of % of 2009 Revenues by Region ($M M) 2009 Total 09 .322 17% 15% 2. compared to 57 percent in 2008 and 53 percent in 2007.176 100% 3% 18. %!!! 3=>?:.514 13% -1% 2.G7>02.-.07 YoY 2007 Total US Region 6.. down from 43 percent in 2008 and 47 percent in 2007.:.764 29% Asia Pacific Region 3.000 retail accounts in the Unites States.A=B0C0B.531 14% 17% 2.80B=>.

indicating that revenues for Nike would have been much larger had certain currencies not devalued so dramatically during the global economic crisis. the Europe. In the Americas region. Aside from currency impacts in the Asia Pacific region. Revenues for the region were down four percent in quarter three compared to the same quarter in 2009. Aside from currency impacts. Argentina. The Other Businesses segment experienced a one percent loss. Middle East. revenues in this region grew 12 percent ± the only region to post a year to date revenue gain. currency negatively impacted revenue growth by nine percent in 2009. In the WKLUGTXDUWHURIWKLVEXVLQHVVVHJPHQW¶VUHYHQXHLQFUHDVHGSHUFHQW over the same quarter in 2009. revenues were hit particularly hard in the first three quarters of 2010. In the Asia Pacific region. However. changes in currency exchange rates accounted for three percent of revenue growth in 2009. led by strong performance from Converse and Hurley. The third quarter 2010 year to date revenue is down four percent in China. %HFDXVH(0($LV1LNH¶VVHFRQGODUJHVWUHJLRQDOPDUNHWWhe Company must make enhanced marketing. Excluding these discontinued companies.7 million. $16.QKHUHQWLQWKLVVHJPHQWLVWKH&RPSDQ\¶VGLYHUVLILFDWLRQ strategy. On a year to date scale. which proved to be beneficial as it acted as a buffer during periods of declining revenue by growing around zero to one percent. 6 . only China realized a revenue increase from the same quarter a year prior. led by Brazil. with China being the region leader. in revenue in 2009 from 2008. and sales initiatives to focus on changing consumer trends and demands in these markets to ensure that this main region remains profitable in the future. all countries in this region delivered revenue growth.From 2003 to 2009. indicating that it is still a worrisome market for Nike. at 22 percent revenue growth on a currency neutral basis in 2009 from 2008. In the third quarter of 2010. On a year to date scale based on third quarter records this business segment realized UHYHQXHJURZWKRIWKUHHSHUFHQW. and Asia region average annual growth rate was ten percent. the Americas region reported growth in all markets. Other Businesses would have increased five percent in 2009. and Mexico. revenues in this region exploded 43 percent over the same period in 2009. The 2008 to 2009 year over year revenue increase in this region in dollars is ten percent. but was primarily attributable to the loss of revenue from recently sold subsidiaries ± Bauer Hockey and Starter. In the third quarter of 2010. This represents massive growth opportunities in the Americas region because as these currencies appreciate Nike will realize even higher dollar growth. product line.

the only business line to realize VLJQLILFDQWUHYHQXHJURZWK$SSDUHO1LNH¶VVHFRQGOHDGLQJUHYHQXHEXVLQHVVUHPDLQHGVWDJQDQW around 27 percent of NikH¶VWRWDOUHYHQXHVLQFRPSDUHGWR Other Business declined less than one percent in 2009 from 2008.2% 5.514 13% -0.234 28% 14% 4.//.8% 1. the Other Businesses segment realized low single digit growth in 2009 from 2008. Footwear is also the most insensitive to macroeconomic conditions as revenue increased six percent in 2009 from 2008.627 100% 14% 16.- $!!! . Since apparel and equipment are stylized to reflect footwear in a particular sport. % of % of % of G lobal Revenues by Product ($M M) 2009 Total 09 . "!!! ! "!!" "!!# "!!$ "!!% "!&! 7 .9% 18.531 14% 17% 2. Unit sales of footwear increased in all regions in 2009 from 2008.130 6% 6% 1.732 52% 14% 8.08 YoY 2008 Total 08 . and these other products will realize growth as footwear revenue grows.(-.577 28% Equipment 1.(/"0%+12(34556 &"!!! &!!!! %!!! '(()*+.9% 9.46+.068 7% Other Businesses 2. but this is evident of lost sales from Bauer Hockey and Starter. P R O D U C T A N A L YSIS Footwear is the leading revenue business across all regions.+.07 YoY 2007 Total Footwear 10. !"#$%&$'()#*#$+#. apparel and equipment sales can be tied to IRRWZHDUVXFFHVV7KXV1LNH¶Vfocus is on increasing footwear revenue above all else.-+0 #!!! 1234/5+6) 7)8+-9:3..7% 2.110 6% -1.168 13% Total 19.307 54% 5.176 100% 2.514 52% Apparel 5.245 27% 0.326 100% Clearly footwear is the most important business for Nike. Factoring out these sold businesses.

how future cash flows will be achieved. Leadership through innovation Nike believes innovation is consistent with improvement. the Company wholly- owns five subsidiaries that enhance its ability to reach segmented product and geographic markets worldwide. which diversifies opportunities for long-term growth. 3. The Nike Sport Research Lab is a premier center for R&D in biometrics. teamwork. engineering. It sells products in 170 countries. 4. and thus. Global presence 6LQFHLWVIRXQGLQJLQ1LNHKDVJURZQLQWRWKHZRUOG¶VODUJHVWDWKOHWLFIRRWZHDUDQd apparel company. In addition to the Nike brand. Nike has a strong portfolio of brands 7KH³6ZRRVK´LVRQHRIWKHPRVWUHFRJQL]HGORJRVLQWKHZRUOG7RGD\WKLVORJRFDQEH found in sporting venues worldwide. employs over 30. Nike believes that sport is a universal language and teaches humans about effort. Nike established leadership positions in emerging markets like China and Brazil. adversity. This product diversification strategy also enables Nike to leverage its resources and core competencies in product. physiology. and QRWMXVWWKH³QHZWKLQJ´ The Company understands that consumers are the ultimate determinants in successes or failures of innovation strategies. so it understands that research and development are key aspects of its businesses. Passion for sports Nike sees the world as endless possibilities for human potential.000 people worldwide. Each brand represents a different lifestyle. and works with over 600 IDFWRULHV6LQFHRYHUSHUFHQWRI1LNH¶VUHYHQXHFDPHIURPRXWVLGHWKH8QLWHG States. and operations to drive consistent growth and profitability. Nike employs committees 8 . G R O W T H I N I T I A T I V ES As investors. and other related fields. marketing. respect. 2. It continues to inspire new generations of athletes and consumers and continuously adjusts product lines to reflect consumer demands. directed toward a defined consumer. and fair competition1LNH¶VSDVVLRQLV inherent in all its growth factors. We believe there are eight aspects of the Company that define long-term growth potential: 1. we believe it is imperative to know where the growth opportunities exist within the Company. which has potential for tremendous growth. competes in over 30 major sports with 12 brands.

Nike operates with excellence It is the people of Nike and their dedication to sportswear innovation that separates Nike from competitors. Also. Nike believes it will be a larger. 7. If products. and more strategically marketing its products. and other sport figures to examine product designs and concepts intended for improvement before sales are implemented. 12 percent growth in EPS. 6. Nike is on the forefront of many emerging markets which are expected to grow significantly in the next ten to twenty years. Commitment to growth From 2005 to 2009 Nike averaged nine percent revenue growth. By staying focused on its strengths. and increasing its stock price 60 percent while the S&P 500 declined. eliminating unnecessary costs. Nike can spotlight individual sport concerns regarding footwear and apparel to connect more intimately with athletes and further enhance the brand image. 5. To capitalize on this reality. made up of athletes. brands. coaches. and not deviating into new or relatively unusual businesses. To better identify growth opportunities among FRQVXPHUV1LNHIRFXVHVRQVHYHQFDWHJRULHVDFWLRQVSRUWVEDVNHWEDOOVRFFHUPHQ¶VDQG ZRPHQ¶VWUDLQLQJUXQQLQJDQGVSRUWVZHDU By singling out each category. Marketplace management Nike understands that consumers are becoming more knowledgeable and have more choices when it comes to sportswear than they did in the past. more profitable company in the future. 8. The Company achieves this by eliminating weak products. it must maintain its competitive advantage in consumer relations. 9 . Nike achieves these remarkable figures by staying focused on its strengths to increase market shares. The Company does this by evaluating product and brand performance online and in-store to identify weaknesses in its marketing and sales campaigns. Nike works with retailers to create a differentiated store experience that are better tailored to specific consumers. and marketplace management create revenue growth. Connection with consumers As increasing competition lowers margins for Nike. operational excellence is the key to sustaining this growth and turning revenues into shareholder value. getting involved in every step of the supply chain.

teams. As such. 0RVWRI1LNH¶VDWKOHWLFIRRWZHDUDQGDSSDUHOLVPDQXIDFWXUHGRXWVLGHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQd most products are sold within the United States. the Company can expect negative impacts on sales. If certain endorsers stop promoting Nike. on DQGRIIWKHILHOGWKDWGDPDJHWKHUHSXWDWLRQRIWKRVHDWKOHWHVFRXOGKXUW1LNH¶VEUDQGLPDJH 1LNH¶VLQWHUQDWLRQDORSHUDWLRQVLQYROYHLQKHUHQWULVNVZKLFKFRXOGKDUPWKHFRPSDQ\ Nike is currently expanding aggressively into emerging markets worldwide. It realizes the importance to quickly expand into emerging economies before competition saturates markets. R IS K F A C T O RS Nike operates in a highly competitive and rapidly changing environment. Also. The Company builds relationships with professional athletes. and Brazil. 1LNH¶VVXFFHVVGHSHQGVRQLWVDELOLW\WRLGHQWLI\and define product trends as well as to anticipate and react to changing consumer demands as quickly as possible to retain market share. F ailure to continue to obtain high quality endorsers.LQJGRPDQGH[SDQG1LNH¶s global leadership in soccer. Nike plans to aggressively showcase the Umbro brand during the FIFA 2010 World Cup in South Africa. 1LNH¶VSURGXFWVIDFHLQWHQVHFRPSHWLWLRQ As a consumer products company specializing in athletic footwear. This acquisition was intended to increase mDUNHWVKDUHLQWKH8QLWHG. Furthermore. We will focus on the main risks associated with Nike. and equipment. Nike is exposed to general international risks. A C Q U ISI T I O NS Nike acquired Umbro on March 3. The acquisition of Umbro also has potential to increase soccer market shares in emerging markets such as China. varying consumer preferences across geographic 10 . apparel. and customer services are all areas where Nike faces extreme competition. the relative popularity of various sportVDQGFKDQJLQJGHVLJQWUHQGVDIIHFWWKHGHPDQGIRU1LNH¶V products. Nike is known for its aggressive marketing and apparently dominant presence in several sports. coaches. Nike competes with countless athletic and leisure shoe companies on a worldwide EDVLV&RPSHWLWRUV¶SURGXFWRIIHULQJVWHFKQRORJLHVPDUNHWLQJH[SHQGLWXUHVSULFLQJFRVWVRI production.4 million. It is not possible to SUHGLFWDOOULVNIDFWRUVLQKHUHQWLQ1LNH¶VGLYHUVLILHGEXVLQHVVHVDWDQ\SRLQWLQWLPHDVthey are constantly changing. 2008 in cash for a purchase price of $576. including foreign laws and regulations. and leagues to establish product authenticity with consumers. actions taken by sponsored athletes. Russia. Nike competes with other companies for the production capacity of independent manufacturers that produce its products.

1LNH¶VSURGXFWVDUHVXEMHFWWRULVNVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRYHUVHDVVRXUFLQJPDQXIDFWXULQJDQG financing.QWKLVFDVH1LNHZRXOGH[SHFWWRSD\DSUHPLXPWR³ODVW PLQXWHVXSSOLHUV´ZKLFK could negatively affect financial performance. There are no guarantees on the supply of fabrics or raw materials from current sources in the future. Nike might not be able to locate alternative suppliers ZLWKFRPSDUDEOHTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGV. 11 . Nike also regularly uses derivative instruments such as forward contracts and options to hedge foreign exchange risk. Now. In the event of supplier problems. and changes in economic FRQGLWLRQVLQFHUWDLQFRXQWULHV7KHVHIDFWRUVDPRQJRWKHUVFRXOGDIIHFW1LNH¶VDELOLW\WR produce. which would negatively affect its profit margins. Nikes products must be transported by third parties over large geographic distances. Its primary foreign currency exposures are related to United States dollar transactions at wholly-owned foreign subsidiaries. 6LQFHLQGHSHQGHQWPDQXIDFWXUHUVSURGXFHPRVWRI1LNH¶VSURGXFWVRXWVLGHLWVSULQFLSDOVDOHV markets. Currency exchange rate fluctuations could result in higher costs and decreased margins. which increase its exposure to foreign currency exchange rates. import. Delays at any point in the supply chain could have negative impacts on financial performance. Nike manages these exposures by taking advantage of natural offsets and currency correlations that exist within its currency portfolio. Nike is exposed to exchange rate risk of several currencies. F O R E I G N C U R R E N C Y E X P OSU R ES A N D H E D G I N G P R A C T I C ES As a global leader in consumer products. Nike is exposed to rising fuel costs. and sell products worldwide. disruptions in cross-border shipments. as well as transactions and translation of results GHQRPLQDWHGLQWKH(XUR%ULWLVKSRXQG&KLQHVH<XDQDQG-DSDQHVH<HQ1LNH¶VIRUHLJQ exchange risk management program seeks to minimize volatility of currency fluctuations in dollar terms. more WKDQHYHU1LNHLVH[SDQGLQJLWVJOREDORSHUDWLRQV7KXV1LNH¶VVDOHVDUHSDLGLQ several currencies.regions. Currency exchange rate fluctuations could also impede the business of the independent manufacturers that manufacture Nike products by making their purchases of raw materials more expensive. 'XHWRWKH&RPSDQ\¶Vworldwide distribution channels. political unrest.

as well as mitigating risk among individual economies. S T R E N G T HS. Nike runs the risk of adverse fluctuations of exchange rates. which mitigates risk among brands. T H R E A TS Strengths: Brand Equity x 1LNHLVDEOHWRFRPPDQGKLJKHUPDUJLQVEHFDXVHRIVWURQJEUDQGHTXLW\1LNH¶V aggressive marketing campaigns show that the best athletes in the world use Nike products. W eaknesses: Currency exposure x As a global company. allowing for considerable amounts of recurring revenues. 1LNHLVDGDPDQWLQHQWHULQJHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVEHIRUHWKH\KDYH³HPHUJHG´VRLWFDQWDNH 12 . O pportunities: Expansion into emerging markets x Nike understands that emerging markets provide enormous growth opportunities. but also limits upside potential. Global presence x Nike has diversified its geographic operations and sells in more than 170 countries. Decreasing United States market share x The United States is the largest and most saturated market that Nike operates in. Diverse line of products x Along with the Nike brand. Nike achieves economies of scale in manufacturing and distribution. and as a result is losing US market share. Nike has a unique image and style that differentiates itself from competitors1LNH¶VEUDQGHTXLW\FHUWDLQO\ZLQVWKHKHDUWVRI many consumers. By doing so. the Company wholly-owns five subsidiaries each specializing in unique product markets. O PP O R T U N I T I ES. W E A K N ESSES. Along with the highest quality of products. The Company uses a hedging strategy designed to eliminate foreign exchange risks. a loss in market share may result in substantial revenue losses to Nike. provided that the Company has a presence in these markets before this growth occurs. Since the US is the largest market. The Company has been directing efforts on expanding into emerging markets.

Nike differentiates itself from competitors in several ways. Innovation x The key intangible asset to Nike is innovation. full advantage of market growth. This SURJUDPDOVRDOORZV1LNH¶VFRQWUDFWRUVWRHPSOR\³OHDQ´PDQXIDFWXULQJ because they know in advance what needs to be produced and when. These markets are not yet at the point of maturity. This allows Nike to sell high quality. as well as high revenue growth in the Americas regions in fiscal 2008 and 2009. marketing campaigns. Nike employs a well diversified mix of production contractors who manufacture Nike products. it strives to sponsor the best athletes in various sports. C O M P E T I T I V E A D V A N T A G ES As the largest company in the Footwear and Apparels Manufacturing industry. specialized products in several sports that many of its competitors are unable to replicate. It constantly changes product mixes. which builds brand equity and boosts confidence of future growth prospects. Its rampant global presence ensures that 1LNHLVDKRXVHKROGQDPHLQQHDUO\HYHU\FRXQWU\7KH&RPSDQ\¶VDJJUHVVLYHPDUNHWLQJ campaigns push the Nike brand in every major sport worldwide along with several less popular sports. This results in cost efficiencies in production by eliminating wasted resources. freeing up cash that can be used in other areas. T hreats: 5HYHQXHUHOLHVRQFRQVXPHUV¶GLVFUHWLRQDU\LQFRPH x $VDFRQVXPHUSURGXFWVFRPSDQ\1LNHLVH[SRVHGWRFRQVXPHUV¶GLVFUHWLRQDU\LQFRPH which is correlated to market cyclicality and interest rates. Decreased consumer GLVSRVDEOHLQFRPHDQGVHQWLPHQWKDVDGYHUVHO\DIIHFWHG1LNH¶VSHUIRUPDQFHGXULQJWKH global economic crisis. and geographic presences based on profitability. In every country that Nike operates. Nike has realized double digit revenue growth in China and other Asian Pacific companies. Negative macroeconomic events pose a significant threat to Nike. 13 . allowing specialized contractors to manufacture products that require specific procedures and output quality. infinite opportunities exist where Nike can gain market share. Because Nike strives to be a market innovator in several constantly changing environments. so high growth is expected in the near to mid-term future. 1LNHPDNHVVXEVWDQWLDOXVHRILWV³IXWXUHV´RUGHULQJSURJUDPZKLFKDOORZVUHWDLOHUVWRRUGHU1LNH SURGXFWVXSWRVL[PRQWKVLQDGYDQFHDWDVWDWHGSULFH7KLVVDOHVSURJUDPPLQLPL]HV1LNH¶V inventory costs and purchasing costs.

44 18.69 91.00 9. leaving 93 percent of its capital obtained through equity financing. we chose to grow revenues in each region separately to better reflect realistic assumptions. so we looked for other companies that we EHOLHYHGDVDZKROHUHSUHVHQWHG1LNH¶VEXVLQHVVHV$GPLWWHGO\QRFRPSDQ\ that publically discloses financial information is particularly similar to Nike especially in this current economic climate.91 82.48 15. Our second challenge was retrieving data for Adidas. select shoe and apparel products corporations with significant international exposure that we expect to behave like Nike in terms of margins in the near future. NI K E V A LUA TION Relative V aluation Nike is by far the largest by market capitalization and sales at over fifteen times greater than the industry average. and Puma. We used a current risk-free rate of four percent reflecting current ten year Treasury bond rates.46 77.30 11.23 11.27 98.39 11.73% VF Corporation 15.78 9.89% Columbia 28. Reebok.56 59.23 57.26 57.37 69.97 12.00% Skechers 33.55 76. We also chose to use a historical risk premium of six percent and a 14 . so we felt that this should be a continuing trend in the near future.26% Discounted C ash F low analysis We conducted a free cash flow to firm analysis to gauge a fair value for Nike. Company PE (ttm) PE Price EV/EBITDA (ttm) EV/EBITDA Price ROE (2009) Nike 20. 7RFDOFXODWH1LNH¶VEHWDRIZHFRQGXFWHGDUHJUHVVLRQRIWKH &RPSDQ\¶VGDLO\UHWXUQVRYHUWKHSDVWVL[\HDUVDQGFRPSDUHGLWWRWKHUHWXUQVRQWKH6 3 over the same time period.61 59.63% Wolverine 24.02 9. and as of January 2006 Reebok is now a subsidiary of Adidas.9 percent7KH&RPSDQ\¶V average leverage ratio since 2005 is about seven percent. Reebok.91% Under Armour 34.18 16.58% Polo Ralph Lauren 18.94 111. Because Nike is increasing its percent of total revenues in foreign markets.11 12. Unfortunately none of these companies are publically owned in the United States. Cost of Capital Our base model uses a weighted average cost of capital of 8. Asia Pacific and the Americas regions. however. Our first challenge for a relative valuation of Nike was choosing comparable FRPSDQLHVZLWKVLPLODUUHYHQXHVPDUNHWFDSLWDOL]DWLRQDQGEXVLQHVVOLQHV1LNH¶VPRVWVLPLODU comparable companies are arguably Adidas. We were unable to find company multiples for these companies. as ZHOODVRWKHUEUDQGVKDYHH[SHULHQFHGDERYHDYHUDJHUHYHQXHJURZWKFRPSDUHGWR1LNH¶VWRWDO revenues.80% Average 25.61 7.67 13. We did.30 69.66 16.39 106.86 12. and Puma.41 49.55 6.

*!! +)/(. the average retention ratio is 21 percent.*!! ()-//..-!! ()/*/.+ 45<5+ 45<<+ 45<4+ 45<=+ 45<6+ !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !"#$#%&#!! '()(*+.&$)&-+ 1.1!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !B#=!@%=#<#C=!>D8.0!! ')(0'. Costs of goods sold and sales.-!! ')11/./!! -)0(/./!! '')0'1.-!! '/).. which grew at a percentage of sales. Depreciation and amortization is projected at eight percent as a percentage of PPE.'!! .'! '+)-+.*!! /0.1!! 15 .'!! +.1!! +/0..'!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !7#8!9!6:.*!! ')11+.-!! ()'2..'I! 1..*!! '2. meaning 79 percent of net earnings is paid to shareholders via dividends and repurchases. /-*#(>&"+ !"$)+"?+@AB&)C+ !"$)+"?+D*E)+ FG!!+ HI)&.-!! '2)'/1.1!! '+.!! '1)0(-.*!! (.(!! /)'10.0!! -21.!! ()/. five year historical average tax rate of 32 percent.**.1!! 0-.2!! +)1.0!! (+)-'1.. as well as a minor change in the beta coefficient from taking more volatile returns in the trailing twelve months.2.)'-0.!! +0*. Americas.-!! *)2-/./I! /.0!! (()120.(!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !546!! +)+11.1!! +)(2*.'!! /02.+. !"#$"%&'()*'+ .*!! '()121.1!! .!! .*#)+ 01223++ 4556+ 4557+ 4558+ 4559+ 455:+ 455..(.-!! ')1.. and administrative expenses remains the same SHUFHQWDJHRIVDOHVDFURVVDOOUHJLRQVEDVHGRQ1LNH¶VZHOOPDQDJHGGLVWULEXWLRQFHQWHUVDQG inventory practices..1!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !345! -)22'. Since 2005. general.'!! '1)-. The projected costs of goods sold as a percentage of sales is slightly lower than the historical average due to sustainable cost cutting efforts in 2010.!! *)12(.!! +)0-2. and a slight decrease in the more saturated markets.2!! '2)1*1.1!! 0)/2/. and does not change its borrowing patterns under different market interest rates.*!! '-.*!! ''.0!! ')(''..I! K*$$&.!! '0)+(*.*+/)()*.&$)&-+ '2. The capital structure remains the same for Nike under different scenarios because Nike historically has low levels of debt..#-".(!! --.2!! /)-/..(.'I! J($*+ ..(!! ')+''.*!! (00.!! ()0/2.0!! '2)*-'.I! Income Statement Our main concern in the income statement was selecting appropriate revenue growth rates for various regions.(!! *)12. Our WACC sensitivity analysis adjusts risk premiums due to market uncertainties.:#!AHD!>D8./!! '()+'*.'I! 1..+I! /./I! /.1!! ()/++. The trend over the past five years for Nike is an increase in percent of total revenues coming from emerging markets../!! 0'. and Other Businesses at higher rates than Europe and United States based on the prospective economic expansion in emerging markets.+!! 1)+0-.)'0*.2.! *2/.'!! *)0/2.2!! //+./!! 0/1..2!! ')/.'.2.*/.0!! (2)'21.2!! !!!!!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !B@!! . so we used this rate going forward.(!! ()'+'..*!! +)...0!! ')+.0!! +'(.1!! ')'.<=.22.2!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !@%G. Nike has generous return policies to shareholders..2!! '.'.0!! /'1. We took into account historical evidence as well as what we believed to be accurate measures of future outlooks../!! ')/10.(!! 0)'*-.(!! ()++'.1!! (-.'!! (')*'*.2!! *)/(.1F! +0.(!! -/.1!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!! >?@A!! ')*/./*..(!! /)2/*..2!! ')''+. We grew revenues in Asia Pacific. Management indicates that this is a primary concern to keep owners satisfied.!! E(*./!! '2)(+...'I! .!! +'+.(.1!! '*.2F! E/.

#'0!J! )*+.! 78943.'/(!)#>'./$! 252432! 22:235! 261237! 29793.! 5272438! 56.R! ?")(%+C&(D&%&)&*$+ 652:3.31! 551237! 599. !"#$"%&'()*'+.36! 9543.0.B9+ <5<76B5+ <598=B4+ <<<.35! 988:32! 99::35! 9.4283.! :.539! 21.+ 45<5+ 45<<+ 45<4+ 45<=+ 45<6+ >$$*)$+ !! !! !! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! "#$%!&'(!)*+.! .! 659735! 681935! 6::23:! 9:5.1239! 854:3.!F#.1:32! .7836! 211637! 27.B8+ <58::B=+ <4664B9+ <=46.5639! 911832! 84.63.! ++?")(%+!@AA*#)+C&(D&%&)&*$+ 45=5B7+ <.! 241437! 222:3:! 261238! 282839! 2:2:39! ?")(%+>$$*)$+ 9.(!A'!"#G./**)+ 01223+ 4556+ 4557+ 4558+ 4559+ 455:+ 455.! 5442132! 548993:! 5541536! ?")(%+C&(D&%&)&*$+>#'+EF@&)G+ .! 894935! 8:5936! EF@&)G+ !! !! !! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! "=@@='!<0=CS! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! 231! &((. Accumulated depreciation is projected at the historical average of 52 percent as a percentage of PPE./'0$! 12134! 561135! 78932! 518:3.1439! .! 1.! 598:83.32! 579939! 241438! 224836! 227638! <%=>0!?/>@!A'-/$0@/'0$! 94431! 96:3:! 569131! 77436! :9232! 55:934! 7.32! :9536! :1:32! !! !! !! !!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!! )KC/$$!P+'($!B/*+. We chose to grow deferred tax assets as a percentage of earnings before interest and taxes since tax expenses are calculated from EBIT.0#.23:! 54943:! 555638! 551436! 522.6:.13.539! B/0#.! 5:.B=+ .!B/C/.31! 21.:8.! 94737! 99535! 96..1234! 8:9938! :21838! ..! 5852537! 16 .38! !!!?=0#.1839! 72:35! 546639! 552434! 59.+ C&(D&%&)&*$+ !! !! !! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! &CC=+'0$!F#H#D.3:! 6:5235! 6. Balance Sheet Most balance sheet items were projected at a historical average percentage of sales from 2005 to 2009.B4+ .>/(! 434! 434! 434! 434! 434! 434! Q5I9:235R! Q5I9423.! :2713.8:3:! ++?")(%+!@AA*#)+>$$*)$+ 774:B8+ 8=7<B<+ 9=68B5+ :598B7+ ::=.3.539! 21.3.G@/'0! 5:5531! 5:4831! 5:8.='#.1283:! 1:7639! 74193.R! Q5I68:36R! Q5I61634R! Q5I8.834! 78232! 549436! 521.! 562973:! 524113.539! 21. Prepaid expenses and accrued expenses grow as a percentage of costs of goods sold as it closely mimics a steady percentage of costs.=B:+ !!E/0!F>=G/>0HI!F./! ..5:B9+ :9.16736! ?")(%+EF@&)G+ 9.:39! 65193.'M$! 671237! 967:38! 9.36! 57:434! 297.636! 898539! 81923.136! 517535! 578.539! 21.B4+ 48<4B6+ 47:6B5+ ==4<B7+ =499B5+ =5.! 2.6423:! . so long- term debt remains at a constant percentage of sales of three percent.! 694.B8+ <45::B9+ <4.-#.4B4+ ==<4B=+ =7==B9+ =9=8B:+ =::5B=+ L='MN?/>@!O/D0! :1239! :1.(%(#-*+.539! 21.9=6B5+ ::=. There is no indication of management changing its capital structure in the future.-#D.=B8+ .! 588736! 564637! 567832! 597237! 581238! 5:983.45B7+ <=99:B9+ <6787B9+ <7<4<B.83.763:! 71:73:! 54:1136! 529923.7413..! 11.3:! 546537! 55:432! 529539! 562136! 594134! 59:936! &CC>+/(!)KG3! .! 256637! 227535! 515.

*! &'(+*! &. We calculated ROIC as: NOPAT / (Assets ± excess funds required ± non-interest bearing current liabilities) +LVWRULFDOO\1LNH¶V52.(-*! &'(.*! +(. 10-Ks. great cash flows.*! +(.<=!>=!67%%! +(.*! +(.*! &&(?*! I N V EST M E N T S U M M A R Y Nike is a profitable company with good growth prospects.*! +(.*! /-(.*! +(.&WKDWLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKPDQDJHPHQW¶VH[SHFWDWLRQVHarning a rate between 15 and 20 percent. !! !""#$ !""%$ !""&$ !""'$ !""($ !"")$ !"*"$ !"**$ !"*!$ !"*+$ !"*#$ "#$%! &'()*! &+('*! &.*! 895433!"4:.*! /-(. and management has achieved this consistently over the last five years.*! +(. and related sheets IRXQGDW1LNH¶VLQYHVWRUUHODWLRQVZHEVLWH1LNHEL]FRP and from Capital IQ.&DYHUDJHVDQGZHEHOLHYHWKLVUDWHWRVOLJKWO\LQFUHDVHGXHWR moderate growth in emerging markets in the near-term.*! +(. and high returns to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.(&*! &)(. we believe these strong cash flows and future shareholder payouts are already factored into the price by the market with a small irrational premium also included.(+*! &-(&*! +('*! +(. Return on Invested Capital 2XUPRGHOSURMHFWVDQ52.('*! &&('*! &/(-*! &&(.*! +(.*! +(. However. 1LNH¶VH[SRVXUHWRVHYHUDOHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVSURYLGHVWKH&RPSDQ\VWURQJJURZWKSURVSHFWV while its market position in developed markets acts as a hedge against the volatility of emerging economies.*! /-(+*! /-(0*! 1234!5234!67%%! +(.*! .yahoo.com. We continue to recommend a hold position on Nike stock. 17 . EDGAR. Historically Nike¶VSD\RXWUDWLRLVQHDUO\ 80 percent of earnings. References: All product and regional information as well as historical financial statement data was obtained from 10-Qs. Relative valuation and additional data was obtained from finance.*! +(.*! '(/*! . Thomson. and Morningstar.

18 .

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563. - #$! Net Interest Exp.515.0 1. of Goodwill and Intangibles ./$1'+*1$ 234$-$.478.5 #$! !! Selling General & Admin Exp.0 54% %&$! Gross Profit 2.6) 0% (1.8 33% 1.960.798.405. .2 482.6 34% 1.546.405./$1'+*1$ !"&$%"#' -$./$1'+*1$ Revenue 4.) 8.9) 0% (1.1 32% ''$! !! Operating Income 654.6 0% 25.215. (0.6) 0% (1. 0% (14.218..0 100% 4.798.3) 0% #$! Interest and Invest.8 33% 1. Total 1. . - #$! Amort. .5 !! !! Other Revenue .9) 0% (1. . Unusual Items 661.6 100% 4. - #$! Other Operating Expense/(Income) . .9) 0% 27.0 695.4 !! !! Interest Expense (0.563. - #$! Depreciation & Amort. .$-$.583.733.1 32% ''$! R & D Exp. .6 34% 1.7 1% #$! Other Non-Operating Inc.546.0 4. - !! !! Total Revenue 4.9 491.3) #$! !! Currency Exchange Gains (Loss) .444./$1'+*1$ !"($%")' -$. .9 55% 2. 0% #$! EBT Excl.6 4. (Exp.8 #$! !! 4 .!"#"$%&'()*(+. 1. - #$! !! Other Operating Exp.7 2.478.0 53% 2./$0'+*1$ !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !"#$%"&' -$.4 1% .5 100% "##$! !! Cost Of Goods Sold 2. Income .1 669.733.

. - '#! Net Income 496.2 749. - '#! Extraord.! ! ! (-(B+ ! ! ! >.0 681. . (14.2 "#! !! Income Tax Expense 165.3 2.502.! =(! =-! =.& -. .5?0&1! @0A0! ("B+)! (CC! ! ! ! D. Item & Account.E#! F.7 1. Unusual Items 661.5?0&1! @0A0! *! )B(+-! >.. . .5 115.2& -.6) !! EBT Incl.-*.5 469. - !! Impairment of Goodwill .<0! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! =(! =-! =.6 708. ..0 '#! !! Earnings of Discontinued Ops. - !! Asset Writedown . Ops. .2 $%&! Earnings from Cont.0 11% ('#! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !""#$%&'$(&)$*+. Unusual Items 1.8 !! EBT Incl. 496.4 10% 375.-#! F(B#! ! ! ! ! ! 5 ..0& -.5 2. - !! Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets .6 ()"*+"! !! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !"#$%&'()*+.3& -.Restructuring Charges .4& !56&'$(7)$*+& Income Tax Expense 504. ..9 14% 491.4 513.6 168.199..449../& -.&( .141.4 375.4 9% 513.-#! Regional B reakdown .6 2."#! .1& -."#! .E#! FC#! FC#! D.-#! -"#! !! . - !! Other Unusual Items .4 648. Change ."#! .4 619.. .859.&/0123&! 40$51&6!&$7!8&9501$!8:1.

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