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Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup

Jan 2011

Markets performance
Units Jan-2011 Mon to
date Index
Vegetable oils
SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 57.88 0.24% > Market performance
CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,809.00 0.55%
RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,285.00 2.59% > Analysis
SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,280.00 0.79% • Natural Rubber.
Sunoil, Ex NWE € /T 1,485.00 -0.34% • Vegetable oils.
Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch € /T 1,040.00 -4.59%
CPO, cif, Rotterdam € /T 1,300.00 1.17%
CSBO degummed, Ex NWE € /T 1,010.00 -2.23%
> Market visuals
Softs and Plantations • Commodity fundamentals gauge
Sugar 11 @ ICE 33.97 5.76%
• Price charts - Agriculture
USc /lb
Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 466.00 12.42%
• Price charts - Energy
Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 3,352.00 10.44%
• Indices
Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 244.80 1.79% • Currency
Tea, Best BP1, Kenya US$ /kg 3.83 2.41% • Macroeconomic gauge
Energy and Metals • Traders positions vs. price
Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 92.19 0.89% • Spreads Corner
Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,331.81 -6.17%
Silver spot US$ /oz 28.03 -9.17%
Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,745.00 1.51%
Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,520.00 2.02%
Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,427.00 -1.10%
Indices
DJIA 11,891.90 2.72%
FTSE 100 5,862.94 -0.63%
Strait times 3,179.72 -0.32%
S&P GSCI 655.27 3.71%
Currencies
US Dollar Index 77.7350 -1.64%
GBP / USD 1.6014 2.66%
EUR / USD 1.3685 2.30%
USD / JPY 82.0700 1.13%
USD / SGD 1.2790 -0.27%
USD / MYR 3.0600 -0.71%
USD / BRL 1.6670 0.46%
Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Analysis
Medium term trends in Natural rubber segment

Natural rubber supply side developments

Global natural rubber production, currently estimated at around 10.01 million tons in the year 2010
has increased at an annual average Global Natural Rubber production and demand trends
rate of 4.9% during the past ten year 12% 11
10%
period. A look at the annual 8%
10
production changes suggests that the 6% 9

annual % chg

qty in MMT
4%
production variability has increased in 2% 8
the past ten year period (2000-2010) 0% 7
-2%
compared to the same in the previous -4% 6
decade. Further, the production -6%
5
-8%
growth was strong in the mid 2000 -10% 4

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
and has slowed down in the recent 3-4
year period compared to the YoY prdtn chg (%), LHS YoY conmtn chg (%), LHS
consumption growth, which has Production, RHS Consumption, RHS
Fig-1
increased at a steady pace throughout Source: IRSG, Pacrim research
the period, ignoring those recession driven pull back.

a) Acreage trend World* natural rubber acreage trend and year on year
Natural rubber area in the major change
producers (whose cumulative 11 5%
production share is more than 95% to 10 4%
3%
area in mln.ha

9
the world total) is estimated at 10.06

YoY % chg
8 2%
million ha, which has increased at an 1%
7
annual average rate of 2.8% during the 0%
6 -1%
last five year period (2005 to 2010). 5 -2%
However the tapped area growth has 4 -3%
lagged behind the total area growth 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

during the period. The tapped area in Total area Tapped area
total area YoY chg (%) tapped area YoY chg (%)
2010 is estimated at 7.016 million ha So urce: A NRP C & P acrim research
(70% of the total area) and has * Wo rld area refers to acreage in major producers who se pro ductio n co ntributio n is
mo re than 95% to to tal. Fig-2
increased at an annual rate of 1.18%
during the same period.

As evident in the Fig-2, the lower World Natural Rubber acreage (total and tapped area)
growth in the tapped area vs. total distribution
area indicates that much of the 4000 20%
CAGR, 2010 to 2005

3500 15%
increase in the recent period is in new 3000
10%
in '000 ha

2500
plantations which shall take time 2000 5%
1500 0%
before they could begin their active 1000
500 -5%
economic production cycle. 0 -10%
Indonesia

Thailand

India
Malaysia

China

Srilanka

Cambodia
Vietnam

Philippines

The acreage distribution among


countries is illustrated in Fig-3. Total area Tapped area Tapped area CAGR Total area CAGR

Indonesia tops the list in both total Source: ANRPC, FAO, Pacrim research Fig-3

-1- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

and tapped area categories followed by Thailand and Malaysia. The cumulative area in these countries
is estimated at 7.23 million ha, which accounts for 72% of the global area. The cumulative growth from
these countries is estimated at 1.43% and 0.57% in the total and tapped area segments respectively,
and the growth has lagged behind the world averages. Although area in Thailand has witnessed above
world average growth, negative growth in Malaysia and muted growth in Indonesia dragged the
cumulative figures behind the global total.

b) Production distribution
Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which cumulatively account for 2/3rd of the global natural rubber
production continued to
NR production share and five year growth across major countries
dominate the production
scenario. However, owing to 35% 20%

compounded annual growth rate


18%
2005 2010 CAGR (2010 over 2005)
the moderate production 30%
share in total production
15%
growth in these countries, 25%
9%
their cumulate share in total 20% 7% 10%
5%
production has declined from 15%
5%
4% 5%
2%
71.14% in year 2005 to 67.5% 10% 1%

in the year 2010. As evident 0%


5%
in Fig-4, the production in 0% -3% -5%
Malaysia during the five year
Thailand

Indonesia

India
Malaysia

China

Sri Lanka

Cambodia
Vietnam

Philippines
period (2005 – 2010) has
actually declined at an annual Fig-4
Source: ANRPC, Pacrim research
rate of 3%, while remained
subdued at 0.9% in Thailand. The production in the No: 2 producer, Indonesia has increased at a
decent rate of 4.6% that exceeded the world average growth of 2.49%. Among the other producers,
Vietnam stood out of the crowd. Vietnam production has increased at an annual rate of 9% during the
past five year period reaching 750 thousand tons in year 2010, which augmented its production share
from 5.4% to 7.35% during the period. Sri Lankan production during the same period grew at an annual
rate of 7.31% and achieved 148 thousand tons in the year 2010.

c) Production growth in year 2010 underperformed the expectations..


Production growth in first two quarters of 2010 was normal and fueled the expectations that supplies
would grow and match the rapid consumption growth in the year. However, the untimely heavy
precipitation across the major producers has created havoc and dragged the production levels
substantially below the achievable levels. As summarized in the Table-1, the cumulative production
from the major producers for the year 2010 is currently estimated at 9.422 million tons, 1.02% below
the initially anticipated level of 9.519 million tons. The production from Thailand, which happens to be
the major global supplier underperformed by 6.91% from the initial expected levels and ended even
below year 2009 level. Excluding Indonesia, the production from all other producers has declined
below the initial expected levels as shown in Table-1.

d) Forecast for year 2011


Although the production in the year 2011 is expected to rebound to 9.918 million tons on expectations
of achieving the potential in the respective nations (Ref Table-1), caution warranted following the
mishap in the year 2010 and the potential role weather could play.

-2- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Table-1: Natural rubber production changes in 2010 and forecast for the year 2011, qty in ‘000 tons.
2009 2010 % change Forecast for % change
2011
Estimate Current Dec over 2010 over 2009
in Aug estimate Aug

Thailand 3,164 3,300 3,072 -6.91% -2.9% 3,247 5.70%


Indonesia 2,440 2,592 2,843 9.68% 16.5% 2,938 3.34%
Malaysia 857 1,000 970 -3.00% 13.2% 1,050 8.25%
India 820 883 845 -4.30% 3.0% 890 5.33%
Vietnam 724 770 750 -2.60% 3.6% 780 4.00%
China 643 680 647 -4.85% 0.6% 690 6.65%
Sri Lanka 137 142 148 4.23% 8.0% 153 3.38%
Philippines 98 102 102 0.00% 4.1% 107 4.90%
Cambodia 34 50 45 -10.00% 32.4% 63 40.00%
Total 8,917 9,519 9,422 -1.02% 5.7% 9,918 5.26%
Source: ANRPC, Rubber Board India and Pacrim research

Further, it would be a while before market could find any increase in supplies owing to production
seasonality. The seasonal production cycle in the major producers suggests that the first 4-5 month
period of the calendar year tend to be lean production months and major increases could only be
observed in the peak production periods. All this suggests that the current scenario of limited supply
availability could continue given the current consumption pace, unless the process of demand
rationing or demand substitution is set in aftermath to the recent sharp run up in the prices levels.

Natural Rubber consumption trends


Global automobile production vs. natural rubber
Natural rubber consumption has witnessed consumption, Year on year changes
15% peak automobile prodtn in 2007: 73.26 mln. 75
robust growth in the decade ending 2010. The
70
consumption has reached a record of around 10%

auto prodtn, mln units


10.17 million tons in the year 2008 before 5%
65

declining by 7.7% in the following year (2009)


annual chg

60
to 9.39 million tons on recessionary pull back 0%
55
and slump in global automobile industry. -5% Automobile production (mln units), RHS
50
Natural rubber demand closely tracks the YoY NR conmptn chg (%), LHS
-10%
automobile segment performance (Fig-5), as it YoY % auto chg (%), LHS 45

accounts for more than two thirds of the total -15% 40


1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

natural rubber consumption.


Fig-5
Source: OCIA, Pacrim research

a) Natural rubber consumption rose in the year 2010 following the uptick in automobile sales
A bunch of economy supportive measures Table-2: Automobile sales in year 2010 vs. year
2009 in major countries. Sales in mln. units.
implemented in the years 2009 and 2010 has helped 2010 2009 %
in boosting up the automobile production and sales in change
US, China and other major countries. China continued China 18.06 13.64 32.4%
its lead as the world largest automobile market with US 11.59 10.43 11.1%
EU-27 13.96 14.59 -4.3%
an estimated sales of over 18.06 million units in the Japan (till
year 2010, up by 32.37% over the previous year. Sales Oct2010) 4.34 3.80 14.3%
Source: JAMA, Reuters, ACEA and Pacrim research
-3- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

in US have increased by 11% to 11.58 million units in 2010. But for the disappointing sales in EU zone,
the automobile segment has broadly recovered in CY 2010 from the previous year slump. The changes
in the other major markets are illustrated in the Table-2. Improved auto sales helped the rubber
consumption bounce back in 2010 over 2009 at major nations as illustrated in the Fig-6.

The rubber consumption demand from China, the world’s largest consumer which accounts for around
30% of global natural rubber demand Natural rubber consumptions in major countries
continued to increase at a rapid pace 2008 2009 2010 chg 2010 over '09 chg 2009 over '08
following the booming tire industry at 3500 15%

consumption in '000 tons


home. The consumption in 2010 rose 3000 10%
5%
to 3.3 million tons, higher by 8.8% 2500
0%
over 2009 level. Low capital costs 2000 -5%
coupled with competitive labor force 1500 -10%
resulted in rapidly expanding tire -15%
1000
-20%
production capacity in China, which 500 -25%
has already captured the title as 0 -30%
‘world largest tire producer’. The tire China Malaysia India Thailand Indonesia Japan
production in the current year is Source: ANRPC, Reuters and Pacrim research Fig-6
estimated at around 420 million units,
up by 10.5% from the previous year level of 380 million units. Further, the production is projected to
touch 570 million units by 2015, which should keep the China’s status in the global rubber
consumption rankings intact.

The consumption in the other major consumers excluding Japan too has increased, at a faster rate in
2010 compared to the previous year growth as illustrated in Fig-6. This has helped the global natural
rubber consumption to bounce back to the pre-recession levels in year 2010, which is currently
estimated at 10.2 million tons.

b) Natural rubber consumption in the year 2011


Natural rubber consumption is projected to witness robust growth in CY 2011 on improving economic
scenario, and the growth estimate has ranged from 6% to 9%. However, it is worth assessing these risk
factors before being overdrawn towards those growth rates.

i) Sovereign Debt crisis in EU and its impact on auto demand.


Stepping aside the underlying global macro economic uncertainty, the renewed fears on European
Union sovereign debt crisis and the aftermath events should be monitored closely as they unfold for its
impact on automobile growth. As we have already seen, the automobile sales in EU zone that account
for around 15%-18% of the global sales, were disappointing in the year 2010 and a second consecutive
year of decline might impact the natural rubber consumption.

ii) Demand from China


Several factors like easy credit availability at low interest rates, aspiring consumer etc. have played a
key role resulting in the explosive growth of automobile segment in China. The growth of the same in
the year 2011 should be monitored aftermath to recent policy move by Chinese government of
rationing the automobile sales in an effort to regulate the haphazard vehicle growth and control the
emissions. Any slow down in sales owing to this or in response to economy cooling down measures
could drag down the natural rubber consumption growth.

-4- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

iii) Risk of switch in demand to synthetic


rubber.
Talks proliferated in the market on a
possible substitution towards synthetic
rubber following the disproportionate rise
in natural rubber prices vs. crude oil
prices in the recent period. As evident in
the Fig-7, natural rubber prices were
trading at historic high levels for the given
range of crude oil prices at the moment.
Although the underlying fundamentals of
natural rubber would justify such
strength, the relative strength will
increase the risk of switch in demand to
synthetic rubber.

To Summarize

Steady and robust increase in consumption demand amid the highly varying annual production
volumes resulted in more deficit years (Fig-8)
Global Natural Rubber Surplus / deficit trend
during the period 2000 to 2010 compared to
0.40 11
the previous decade, which has resulted in
surplus / deficit in mln.T

0.20 10
significant stock erosion. 9

qty in MMT
0.00
8
-0.20
7
As illustrated in the Table-3, significant stock -0.40
6
reduction has already taken place, where in the -0.60 5
ending stocks were squeezed to around 1.6 -0.80 4
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
million tons by the year 2009 and would have
further declined to 1.41 million tons by the end Surplus / Deficit Production, RHS Consumption, RHS
Fig-8
of year 2010 on the supply and demand Source: IRSG, Pacrim research
mismatch. In relative terms, the stocks have declined to just 1.6 months of usage in 2010 from 2.1 in
the previous year and around three and half months of usage prevailing in the beginning of the decade.
As illustrated in the table, supplies will have to increase at a much faster rate in the coming period
even to meet a normal growth scenario and avert further stock reduction. We could witness another
year of stock reduction if production increases at the normal rate of 5% and consumption rises at the
previous year rate of 8%. But for the technical pull backs on profit booking liquidation, this is a major
supportive factor for the prices in the medium to long run, and the status quo could continue till the
margin of comfort (stocks) increases considerably.

-5- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Table-3: Natural rubber supply and demand balance sheet


1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Production, MMT 6.04 6.76 8.90 9.79 9.80 10.04 9.62 10.00 10.50
Consumption, MMT 6.00 7.34 9.20 9.68 10.14 10.17 9.39 10.20 11.01
Production deficit/ surplus, MMT 0.04 -0.58 -0.30 0.11 -0.34 -0.14 0.23 -0.20 -0.52
Ending stocks (indicative), MMT 2.45 2.18 1.75 1.87 1.52 1.39 1.61 1.41 0.89
Stocks to use ratio (%) 40.8% 29.7% 19.0% 19.3% 15.0% 13.6% 17.2% 13.9% 8.1%
Stocks in months to use 4.90 3.57 2.29 2.31 1.80 1.63 2.06 1.66 0.98
Average price, RSS3, US$ per Kg 1.56 0.75 1.50 2.16 2.32 2.61 1.98 3.50 ?
Source: IRSG, Pacrim research
* - Scenario forecast for CY 2011 under the assumption of production growth at 5% and consumption growth at 8%

Vegetable oils, short term perspective.

Soybean oil
One of the strongest La Nina events on record has unfolded in the current year 2010 and severely
impacted the global oilseed production Table:1- Soybean area, yield and production
prospects. The La Nina linked drier weather estimates in major producers
2009/10 2010/11 Chg in
pattern in Brazil and Argentina has %
increased the uncertainty over soybean World Area, mln. ha 102.0 103.1 1.1%
crop size from these major producers. US 30.9 31.0 0.3%
Although production in Brazil has largely Brazil 23.5 24.3 3.2%
stabilized aftermath to initial hiccups, the Argentina 18.6 18.6 0.0%
size of Argentina output is still under dark. total
area
as % to global soybean 72% 72%

The hot and dry climate during the crop 2551 2479
Yield in Kgs/ha -2.8%
growing period has reduced the yield 2958 2922
US -1.2%
expectations, which is currently projected at Brazil 2936 2784 -5.2%
2715 Kgs per ha, down by 7.3% from the Argentina 2930 2715 -7.3%
previous season level. Accordingly, its World production, mln.T 260.1 255.5 -1.8%
soybean production is currently expected at US 91.4 90.6 -0.9%
50.5 million tons, short of 4 million tons Brazil 69.0 67.5 -2.2%
Argentina 54.5 50.5 -7.3%
from the previous season harvest. At the
total as % to global soybean 83% 82%
aggregate level, the world soybean production
production for the year 2010/11 is expected
at 255.5 million tons, down by 1.8% from the previous year level despite an increase in the area by
1.1%. The harvested area, yield and production in the top three producers are summarized in Table-1.
US soybean weekly export shipment trends, in million tons
While the production growth was
muted, soybean demand has remained 45
Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt
robust as reflected by the firm export 40
accumulated exp in mt

sales from the major producers. 35


30
Soybean exports from US have remained
25
strong and are on par with previous
20
year’s record pace since the beginning of 15
the current MY (Fig-9). The cumulative 2010-11
5 yr avg
2009-10
5 yr min 10
exports till date in the current marketing 5 yr max
5
year were estimated at 24.77 million 0
tons vs. 24.25 million tons exported W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
Fig-9
Source: USDA and Pacrim research
-6- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

during the same period in previous year. Total commitments have reached 86.27% of the projected MY
exports (43.27 million tons) compared to the previous year same period level of 84%. China remained
as the top destination whose MY 2010/11 imports are currently projected at 57 million tons, an
increase of almost 6.6 million tons over the previous year level. Factors like burgeoning demand at the
domestic front for protein meals and vegetable oils, improving crush margins and the traders push to
adequately stock the beans following the uncertainty on South American crop size has kept the
Chinese demand on strong note, although the sustenance of the same will be crucial in the coming
period for the prices to maintain the current momentum.

Mean while, the soybean crush demand in US has fallen behind the previous year level after a good
start. The cumulative crush in the
US monthly SBO and SBM stocks historical trend
first four months of the current
marketing year is estimated at

meal stocks, '000 short tons


4.0 800
595.69 million bushels, down from 3.5 700

oil stocks, bln.lbs


the previous year same period level 3.0 600
of 618.55 million bushels. With 2.5 500
current crush pace, soybean oil 2.0 400
stocks have already risen to 3.46 1.5 300

bln. lbs (Fig-10), marginally below 1.0 200


0.5 100
the previous record of 3.55 bln. lbs.
0.0 0
At the current level, soybean oil
O-01

O-02

O-03

O-04

O-05

O-06

O-07

O-08

O-09

O-10
stocks are above the five year
average level for this time of the SBO stocks, bln lbs, LHS Soymeal stocks, '000 short tons, RHS
year. Although the demand for bean Source: US Census and Pacrim research Fig-10
oil is expected to rise in bio fuel
production aftermath to the reinstatement of the US bio-diesel blender’s credit, much would depend
upon the extent of consumption revival.

Following the increase in demand expectations from food and industrial usage segments, the global
soybean oil demand is projected to rise by 9.17% over the year to 41.80 million tons. Higher
consumption growth relative to production growth could drag down the year ending stocks to 2.8
million tons from the previous year level of 3.04 million tons.

Palm oil
World palm oil production for the year 2010/11 (Oct/Sep) is currently forecasted at 47.91 million tons,
up by 3 million tons over the previous year. Majority of the increase is expected to come from the
largest palm oil producer, Indonesia whose output in 2010/11 is forecasted to touch 23 million tons
from 21 million tons observed in the previous year. An expansion in the mature palm oil acreage in
Indonesia by 350 thousand hectares could facilitate the production growth besides improvement in
productivity. The production in the second largest producer, Malaysia is forecast to expand by 837
thousand tons owing to limited increase in plantation area. Cumulatively, the global palm oil
production is projected to increase at an annual rate of 6.91%. On the other hand, the global palm oil
demand is projected to increase at faster pace over the year by 7.73% to 48.15 million tons in 2010/11
following the expected growth in food use and industrial use segments.

Mismatch in the palm oil production and consumption growth is expected to result in stocks decline for
the second consecutive year. World palm oil MY 2010/11 year ending stocks are currently projected at

-7- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

4.21 million tons, down by over 18% from the previous year stock level of 5.14 million tons. In relative
terms, the stocks to use could fall to 8.7%, the lowest in the past 30 year history.

At aggregate level, the ending stocks of eight major vegetable oils at global front is expected to decline
to 10.22 million tons in the Vegetable oil stocks to use ratio drill down
current MY from the previous 6% 14%
year level of 12.75 million tons.

Total veg oil stocks to use (%)


5% 12%
In relative terms, the stocks to

oil wise stocks to use


use could drop to 7%, the 10%
4%
lowest since early 70s (Fig-11). 8%
3%
The expected tightness could 6%
continue to extend the 2%
4%
underlying support for prices 1% 2%
except under the circumstances
of unexpected supply growth or 0% 0%
1970/71 80/81 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
weighed on by global macro
all oils Palm Peanut Rapeseed
economic risk factors. Soybean Sunflowerseed other oils
Fig-11
So urce: USDA and P acrim Research

Other factors
Some of the other fundamental factors that shall drive the vegetable oil prices are - a) Escalating geo-
political tensions in the middle-east region and its probable impact on the agricultural trade, b) Macro
economic developments at the global front, c) The movements in US dollar, which is expected to
strengthen in a flight to safety move. US dollar Index has weakened during the last 2-3 weeks period
after making a failed attempt to take out the 2 month high of 81.40 for the second time., c) Crude oil
whose trading was broadly confined to the price range of US$ 86 per barrel to US$ 93 per barrel in the
past four month period.

-8- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Market Visuals
Commodities fundamental gauge
Global Palm oil Stocks to use vs. Price World Soybean oil Stocks to use vs. Price
all veg oil stocks to use Palmoil stocks to use
all veg oil stocks to use Soybn oil stocks to use
25% Annual avg price Price max 5000
18% Annual avg price Price max 80
Price min 4500
16% Price min 70
20% 4000
14%
60
stocks to use (%)

3500

stocks to use (%)


price in MYR / T
12%

price in USc/lb
15% 3000 50
10%
2500 40
10% 2000 8%
30
1500 6%
5% 1000 20
4%
500 2% 10
0% 0 0% 0
1980/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

World Soybean Stocks to use vs. Price World soybean meal stocks to use vs. price
stocks to use ratio Annual avg price
30% Annual avg price Price max Price min 1800 8% Price max Price min 500

1600 450
7%
25% Stocks to use 400

price in US$ per short ton


1400
price in USc/bushel

6%

stocks to use (%)


stocks to use (%)

350
20% 1200
5% 300
1000
15% 4% 250
800
3% 200
10% 600
150
2%
400 100
5%
200 1%
50
0% 0 0% 0
1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11 1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11

World Corn Stocks to use vs. Price World Wheat Stocks to use vs. Price
Stocks to use Annual avg price Stocks to use Annual avg price
50% Price max Price min 800 40% Price max Price min 1400
45% 700 35% 1200
40%
600 30%

price in USc / bushel


price in USc / bushel

35% 1000
stocks to use (%)
stocks to use (%)

30% 500 25%


800
25% 400 20%
600
20% 300 15%
15% 400
200 10%
10%
100 5% 200
5%
0% 0 0% 0
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

World Sugar Stocks to use vs. Price World Cotton Stocks to use vs. Price
Stocks to use Annual avg price Stocks to use Annual avg price
35% Price max Price min 70 70% Price max Price min 180

30% 60 60% 160

140
25% 50 50%
stocks to use (%)

stocks to use (%)


price in USc/lb

price in USc/lb

120
20% 40 40%
100
15% 30 30%
80
10% 20 20%
60

5% 10 10% 40

0% 0 0% 20
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

Average, Min and Max prices in yr 2011 are Jan 01, 2011 to till date statistics, Source: USDA and Pacrim research

-9- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011
Price charts - Agriculture
CPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
Palm oil continous 3 month cumulative vol (3,732.00, 3,809.00, 3,730.00, 3,809.00, +109.000) SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (57.2900, 57.9000, 57.2700, 57.8800, +0.61000) 75
4500
70

4000 65
60
3500
55

3000 50
45
2500
40

2000 35
30
1500
25

1000 20
15
40 EMA 200 EMA 500 40 EMA 200 EMA
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,395.25, 1,413.50, 1,394.50, 1,413.00, +15.0000) SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (34.1000, 34.1000, 32.5900, 33.9700, +0.03000)
1700
35
1600
1500 30
1400
1300 25
1200
1100 20

1000
15
900
800
10
700
600 5
500

40 EMA 400 40 EMA 200 EMA 0


15 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (470.600, 475.700, 459.400, 467.400, -1.70001) 500 CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (642.250, 659.500, 642.250, 659.500, +15.5000) 800
750
450
700
400 650
600
350
550
300 500
450
250
400
200 350
150 300
250
100
200
40 EMA 200 EMA 50 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 150
15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (824.000, 847.750, 823.000, 840.750, +15.0000) 1400 COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (165.890, 168.750, 165.460, 168.440, +3.69000) 180
1300 170
160
1200
150
1100 140
1000 130
900 120
110
800
100
700 90
600 80
70
500
60
400 50
300 40
30
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 200 15 EMA
40 EMA 200 EMA 20
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-10- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011
Price Charts – Energy and Metals
Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,
LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (89.9700, 92.8400, 88.4000, 92.1900, +2.85001) NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4.32300, 4.46000, 4.29000, 4.42000, +0.09700)
150 16
140 15
130 14
120 13

110 12

100 11
10
90
9
80
8
70
7
60
6
50
5
40 4
30 3
20 2
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 10 40 EMA 200 EMA 1
15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.


gold (1,336.55, 1,345.80, 1,322.90, 1,331.81, -2.97998) 1500 s ilver (28.2800, 28.4300, 27.5200, 28.0300, +0.07000)
1400 30
1300
1200
25
1100
1000
20
900
800
15
700
600
500 10

400
300 5
40 EMA 200 EMA 200 40 EMA 200 EMA
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT COPPER USD (9,660.00, 9,770.00, 9,655.00, 9,745.00, +215.000) 3MT ZINC DLR (2,348.00, 2,428.00, 2,348.00, 2,427.00, +73.0000)
10000
9500 4500
9000
8500 4000
8000
7500 3500
7000
6500 3000
6000
5500
2500
5000
4500
4000 2000
3500
3000 1500
2500
2000 1000
1500
40 EMA 200 EMA 1000
40 EMA 200 EMA 500
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,485.00, 2,521.00, 2,485.00, 2,520.00, +48.0000) 3500 3MT LEAD DLR (2,460.00, 2,510.00, 2,460.00, 2,510.00, +72.5000)
4000

3500
3000
3000

2500 2500

2000

2000
1500

1000
1500

500
40 EMA 200 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-11- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011
Indices, weekly charts
DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US
Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (11,824.40, 11,891.90, 11,817.90, 11,891.90, +68.2002) 14500 S&P 500 INDEX (1,276.34, 1,287.09, 1,276.34, 1,286.12, +9.78003)
1600
14000 1550
13500 1500
13000 1450
1400
12500
1350
12000 1300
11500 1250
11000 1200
10500 1150
10000 1100
1050
9500
1000
9000 950
8500 900
8000 850
7500 800
7000 750
700
6500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 6000 15 EMA
40 EMA 200 EMA 650
600
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore


FTSE 100 INDEX (5,881.37, 5,881.72, 5,815.44, 5,862.94, -18.4302) STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,191.77, 3,205.48, 3,177.78, 3,179.72, -49.9700) 4000
7000

6500
3500

6000
3000
5500

5000 2500

4500
2000

4000
1500
3500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1000


15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9
50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India


SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,751.53, 2,790.92, 2,748.54, 2,790.69, +37.9399) BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (18,226.20, 18,395.10, 18,038.50, 18,327.80, -68.1992)
6000
20000
5500
5000
4500 15000
4000
3500
3000 10000
2500
2000
5000
1500
1000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)


S&P GSCI INDEX (646.830, 657.620, 641.440, 655.265, +13.1560) Volatility Index (19.6100, 19.9600, 19.1800, 19.5300, -0.51000) 95
900 90
850 85
800 80
750 75
700 70
65
650
60
600
55
550
50
500
45
450 40
400 35
350 30
300 25
250 20
200 15
150 10
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
15 EMA 5
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-12- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011
Currencies, weekly charts
US Dollar Index spot GBP / USD
US DOLLAR INDEX (78.1070, 78.3250, 77.5370, 77.7350, -0.39800) UK pound sterling (1.58570, 1.60490, 1.58210, 1.60140, +0.01540) 2.15
120 2.10
2.05
115
2.00
110 1.95
1.90
105 1.85
100 1.80
1.75
95 1.70
90 1.65
1.60
85 1.55
80 1.50
1.45
75 1.40
70 1.35
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1.30
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

EUR / USD USD / JPY


EuroDollar (1.35980, 1.37390, 1.35670, 1.36850, +0.00720) Japanese yen (81.9800, 82.2600, 81.8800, 82.0700, -0.03000)
1.60 135
1.55 130
1.50
1.45 125
1.40 120
1.35
1.30 115
1.25 110
1.20
105
1.15
1.10 100
1.05 95
1.00
0.95 90
0.90 85
0.85
80
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 0.80 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD / SGD USD / MYR


Singapore dollar (1.28470, 1.28800, 1.27830, 1.27900, -0.00560) Malaysian ringgit (3.05500, 3.06400, 3.05300, 3.06000, +0.00600) 4.05
1.85 4.00
3.95
1.80 3.90
3.85
1.75 3.80
1.70 3.75
3.70
1.65 3.65
3.60
1.60
3.55
1.55 3.50
3.45
1.50 3.40
1.45 3.35
3.30
1.40 3.25
3.20
1.35 3.15
1.30 3.10
3.05
40 EMA 200 EMA 1.25 40 EMA 200 EMA 3.00
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield

Line, QUS10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 3.4335 Yield Line, QEU10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 3.213 Yield
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 2.9898 SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 2.653
7
4.5
6
4
5
3.5
4
3
3
.1234 2.5
.123
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 76.936 Value
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 76.019 StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 92.741 Value
30 StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 06/02/2011, 90.188
.123 .123
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-13- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Macroeconomic gauge
Unemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY
Germany Value Value
Line, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 9.4 Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 30/11/2010, 92.4 JPY
Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 4.9 Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 91.986
Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 10 Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 94.6
10 GBP
Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/10/2010, 7.9 EUR 100
Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 7.4
9 95
8
90
USD 7
USA 85
UK JPY
6
80
5
75

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence
Value Value Value
Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 1.667M Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 60.8
Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 1.14M Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 57.1 ISM manufacturing
1.4M
120 Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 60.6 55

1.2M
100
50
USA 1M
80
800,000 ISM services 45
600,000 60
40
400,000 CB Consumer confidence, LHS
40
China 200,000 35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %
Price Value
Line, QJPPRIME=, 28/02/2011, 1.5 PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 1.394
Line, QGBPRIME=, 28/02/2011, 0.5 INR Line, QaCNCPIYY, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 4.586
Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 0 INR
Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 28/02/2011, 1 15
12 PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 3.73
Line, QUSPRIME=, 28/02/2011, 3.25
Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 2.4
Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 9 Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 9.701 12
Line, QaCNLENR1Y, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 5.81 10

US 9
8
CNY CNY
6
6
UK
GBP EU16 3
4
EUR US
2 0
JPY JPY
.12 .123
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

-14- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Traders positions vs. Price


Soybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT

300 1800 150 80

1600 100 70
200

Closing price, USc / bushel


1400

Closing price, USc /lb


50 60
100
1200
0 50

'000 lots
'000 lots

0 1000
-50 40
-100 800
-100 30
600
-200
400 -150 20
-300 -200 10
200

-400 0 -250 0
J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D-
06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10

Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX


400 40 300 160
300 35 140
200 200

closing price, US$ / barrel


Closing price, USc / lb
30 120
100
100
25 100
0
'000 lots

'000 lots
-100 20 0 80
-200
15 60
-300 -100
10 40
-400
-200
5 20
-500
-600 0 -300 0
J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D-
06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10

Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX


300 80 500
1300
60 450
200
400

closing price, USc / lb


Closing price, US$ / oz

40
1100
100 350
20
300
'000 lots
'000 lots

900 0
0 250
-20
200
700 -40
-100
150
-60 100
-200 500
-80 50

-300 300 -100 0


J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D- M- J- S- D-
06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10

Legend

Source: CFTC and Pacrim research

-15- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Spreads corner
PME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD

Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 31/01/2011, 215.10 Value


Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 02/02/2011, 400 Value
EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 31/01/2011, 148.9 USD
SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 02/02/2011, 324.62 USD
T
T 300
400 252.58
200

100
.12 .12

Line, QPME-CIFARA, 27/01/2011, 1,278 Price Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 31/01/2011, 1,245.10 Price
Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 02/02/2011, 878 USD Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 31/01/2011, 1,030 USD
T
T
800

400 600

.12 400
.12
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 01/02/2011, 0 Value Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 01/02/2011, 960 Value


EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 01/02/2011, -56.41 USD SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 01/02/2011, 410.8 USD
T T
100
400
0
-100
0
.12
.12

Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 01/02/2011, 2,250 Price


Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 01/02/2011, 2,250 Price
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 01/02/2011, 2,250 USD Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 01/02/2011, 1,290 USD
T T

1,000
1,000
500
500
.12
.12
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Soybean vs. Corn Wheat vs. Corn

Ratio, QSc1, 06/02/2011, 2@1.27 Value Ratio, QWc1, 06/02/2011, 1@2.11 Value
SMA, Ratio(QSc1, QCc1), 06/02/2011, 2@4.24 USc SMA, Ratio(QWc1, QCc1), 06/02/2011, 1@4.21 USc
Bsh Bsh
3 1@7

2@4
1@4

2
1@1

1/8 1/8

Price Line, QWc1, 06/02/2011, 846 Price


Line, QSc1, 06/02/2011, 1444@2
Line, QCc1, 06/02/2011, 669 USc Line, QCc1, 06/02/2011, 669@2 USc
Bsh Bsh

900
600

600
400
300
1/8 1/8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 [Delayed] 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-16- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd


Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Jan 2011

Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sources
we believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as
a recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

-17- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd