Trends Underpinning Tourism to 2020: An analysis of key drivers for change

Larry Dwyer, Deborah Edwards, Nina Mistilis, Noel Scott , Chris Cooper, Carolina Roman

1 Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3 2 UNWTO Tourism Forecasts to 2020.......................................................................... 9 3 Global Trends Affecting Tourism............................................................................. 22 3.1 Globalisation and Long term Economic Trends ............................................... 23 3.1.1 A Growing World Economy..................................................................... 23 3.1.2 Globalization............................................................................................. 24 3.1.3 Possible Brakes to Growth........................................................................ 27 3.1.4 Relevance for Tourism.............................................................................. 27 3.2 Demographic trends .......................................................................................... 29 3.2.1 Population and Ageing.............................................................................. 30 3.2.2 Urbanisation.............................................................................................. 31 3.2.3 Changing Social Structures in Developed Economies.............................. 31 3.2.4 Health........................................................................................................ 33 3.2.5 Aspirations and Expectations.................................................................... 33 3.2.6 Values and Lifestyles................................................................................ 34 3.2.7 Changing Work Patterns ........................................................................... 36 3.2.8 Gender....................................................................................................... 37 3.2.9 Education .................................................................................................. 38 3.2.10 Relevance for Tourism.............................................................................. 38 3.3 Political Trends ................................................................................................. 40 3.3.1 Existing and Emerging Global Players ..................................................... 40 3.3.2 Power of ‘non-state’ actors .............................................................................. 42 3.3.3 Health risks and security.................................................................................. 44 3.3.4 Haves Vs Have Nots ................................................................................. 46 3.3.5 Governance ............................................................................................... 46 3.3.6 Political Islam ........................................................................................... 47 3.3.7 Arc of Instability ....................................................................................... 47 3.3.8 Relevance of Political Trends for Tourism............................................... 47 3.4 Environmental trends ........................................................................................ 51 3.4.1 Climate change.......................................................................................... 51 3.4.2 Natural Resources .................................................................................... 53 3.4.3 Biodiversity............................................................................................... 55 3.4.4 Other environmental trends....................................................................... 56 3.4.5 Relevance for Tourism.............................................................................. 56 3.5 Science and Technology Trends ....................................................................... 60 3.5.1 Science and Technology Relevance for Tourism ............................................ 63 4. Implications for Tourism Management to 2020 ........................................................... 66 4.1 Influences on the changing needs of tourists .......................................................... 66

4.1.1 Experiences ............................................................................................... 66 4.1.2 The Value of Visitor Time........................................................................ 67 4.1.3 Individuality.............................................................................................. 67 4.1.4 Value for money ....................................................................................... 68 4.1.5 Self Improvement...................................................................................... 68 4.1.6 Environmental and Social concern ........................................................... 69 4.1.7 ICT ............................................................................................................ 69 4.2 Destination Management .................................................................................. 69 4.2.1 Destination Policy, Planning, Development ............................................. 69 4.2.2 Destination Management Organisation..................................................... 72 4.2.3 Destination Marketing Management......................................................... 73 4.2.4 Risk management...................................................................................... 75 4.2.5 Education for Tourism Management ........................................................ 76 4.3 Enterprise Management .................................................................................... 78 4.3.1 Management Capabilities of Tourism Firms and Organizations .............. 78 4.3.2 Marketing.................................................................................................. 79 4.3.3 Sustainability............................................................................................. 80 4.3.4 Information Technology ........................................................................... 81 4.3.5 Networks/Alliances................................................................................... 82 4.3.6 Risk Management ..................................................................................... 83 4.4 Development of Products and Services ............................................................ 84 4.4.1 Emerging Special Interest Markets........................................................... 87 5. Conclusions............................................................................................................... 94


Trends Underpinning Tourism to 2020: An analysis of key drivers for change
Larry Dwyer, Deborah Edwards, Nina Mistilis, Noel Scott, Chris Cooper, Carolina Roman

1 Introduction
What form will tourism take in the future? What changes are taking place globally that will influence the types of experiences that tourists seek in the future? The answers that destination managers and tourism operators give to this question will influence the types of products and services that are developed today to match future industry needs. Since the future cannot be known with certainty, public and private sector tourism organisations must ‘gamble’ on the correctness of their decisions to allocate resources today to maintain/achieve competitive advantage for their organisations tomorrow. Those destinations and individual operators that make decisions on the supply side that do not match changing customer needs will suffer strategic drift (Johnson and Scholes 1997), reduced tourism numbers and yield and a possible decline in their entire tourism industry. Many commentators have prepared lists of top 10 or top 15 trends/critical issues in tourism (PATA 1999, Yesawich 2000). Such lists contain the usual suspects- technology, globalisation, changing travel motivations, environmental awareness, and so on. These lists make interesting reading. But in most cases they lack coherence. The reader gains no sense of the wider social, demographic technological, environmental, political or other forces underpinning the projected changes, their implications for different stakeholders (eg. tourists, industry, community, government), or the relative impact of the different factors on other industries that have links with tourism. A key element of a successful tourism industry is the ability to recognize and deal with change across a wide range of behavioural and technological factors and the way they interact. The coming decade and a half should see major shifts in the leisure and tourism environment reflecting changing consumer values, political forces, environmental changes and the explosive growth of information technology. No aspect of the industry will remain untouched. The challenge for tourism stakeholders in both the private and


Achieving competitive advantage in times of rapid change requires tourism stakeholders to have a clear understanding of the direction of change and its implications for business or destination management. 4 . technological.public sectors is to account for these changes pro-actively to achieve and maintain competitive advantage for their organizations. it seems fair to say that they form a disjointed group. and between firms within a destination. The greater our knowledge of the trends underpinning tourism development the greater the capacity of destination managers and tourism operators to formulate strategies to achieve competitive advantage for their organizations. political. In most cases the item has its basis in deeper global economic. environmental.between destinations worldwide (between established markets and from new markets). There is increasing competition in the tourism and hospitality industries . The UNWTO (2002: 25) has listed the major determinants and influences affecting tourism to 2020 under eleven headings: ■ Economy ■ Technology ■ Facilitation ■ Safety ■ Demography ■ Globalisation ■ Localisation ■ Social-environmental awareness ■ Living and working environments ■ “Experience” economy ■ Marketing While the UNWTO discusses the relevance of each of these items to the forecasts. and demographic trends. We shall return to explore the relevance of the above influences at various places in the discussion below. between destinations domestically. It is important to know how world events influence consumers and suppliers of goods and services and consequently how this shapes tourism.

political. DESTINATION Megatrends Economic Demographic Political Environmental Technological Tourism flows Visitor values and needs New product development Destination management ENTERPRISE Enterprise management 5 . These include: the Global Economy and Globalisation. Political. Each of these trends have sub-components as well as occasional counter trends. economic. how to go. planning and development are made. All such trends comprise the external environment in which consumers make travel related decisions. These changing realities make up the strategic context within which long-term tourism industry policies. Natural Resources and Environment. Only by understanding and acting upon reliable trend forecasts will the tourism industry be able to avoid the most common cause of bad decisions: misassumption about the external demographic. and technological and natural environments. tourism trends cannot be considered in isolation from key drivers that will shape the world of the future. segments or even particular firms. Some trends operate at a global level and may be referred to as mega trends.Since tourism is essentially integrated with other sectors in the economy. Some trends may be of more limited scope affecting particular industries. what to do and how much to spend. The megatrends discussed in this report will have varying effects in different regions and countries. such as where to go. and Science and Technology. Demographics. The trends should guide decision processes and resource allocation. Tourism stakeholders will seek to achieve competitive advantage for their organizations. Figure 1 depicts the proposed framework in which these megatrends would influence and impact upon the tourism industry.

both international and domestic. the focus is on Australia in particular. An exploration of these trends allows important change agents. and technological forces driving global change to 2020. political. product development. While the implications extend to all tourism destinations and operations. ● identify the major economic. which have implications for Australian tourism destinations and the firms comprising them. 6 . on both the supply side and the demand side of tourism. and tourism operators to develop tourism in a sustainable way. strategies formulated by destination managers. ● identify those mega trends at a global. need to ensure that tourism policies and planning. and marketing strategies are consistent with the trends and environmental factors that are shaping the behaviour of future tourists. Tourism stakeholders. and national level in Australia. public and private sector.2 Project Aims This report explores the way in which some key drivers could affect the tourism industry. demographic.Figure 1 Influence of Megatrends on Tourism This report provides an overview of key trends likely to impact on tourism destinations and operators over the coming decade and a half. to be highlighted and discussed. to the year 2020. Specific aims are to: ● identify global tourism forecasts to the year 2020. environmental. ● propose recommendations that destination managers and tourism operators in Australia could adopt to maintain competitive advantage in the context of these major trends. The outcomes of the project have implications for decision making by all tourism stakeholders in the private and public sectors. Australia must look to the future in order to be ready to receive future visitors with the services and products that they will demand. 1.

and industry 7 . The trends are discussed as they affect new product development. Section 5 – conclusions and recommendations This report is intended to be a preliminary report only and will be modified according to industry feedback from a series of workshops to be held throughout Australia. and Technological trends. and within Australia. This enables identification of those trends at a global level. The workshops will serve two purposes: i. Demographic. This section also develops an action agenda that tourism decision makers in both the private and public sectors in Australia can undertake as part of a pro-active strategy to achieve competitive advantage internationally over the next 15 years. Department of Industry. which will have significant implications for Australian tourism at least to the year 2020. Political. Section 3 presents a literature search of mega trends in the general (non tourism) literature which can affect tourism. This draws upon an extensive published literature. Section 4 identifies the likely effects of these trends on tourism flows to.These forecasts provide a basis for us to investigate in more detail the influences that wider trends have on tourism flows globally over the next 15 years. Environmental. State and Regional Tourism Organizations. both in the demand and supply sides of the global tourism industry.1. Tourism and Resources (DITR). to present the results of this draft report to major stakeholders in Australian tourism.3 Report Structure The report is structured as follows: Section 2 highlights tourism forecasts to 2020 estimated by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). from. These include: Economic trends (including Globalisation).tourists. and three important stakeholders . including government such as Tourism Australia. destination managers and tourism operators.

associations such as the Australian Tourism Export Council (ATEC). Tourism and Transport Forum (TTF) and others. Australia’s destination competitiveness in 2020 and beyond. to obtain the views and perspectives from representatives of these organizations as to the perceived impacts of the trends identified herein on inbound. outbound and domestic tourism flows. workshop attendees will be asked to consider “How will my business look in 2020?” This will be built on scenarios shared with attendees encompassing the megatrends. and the implications for tourism planning. National Tourism Alliance (NTA). The workshops will inform industry of progress to date and also provide the opportunity for industry input into the report. In particular this feedback will help to identify the impact of trends identified in terms of specific sectors and destinations within Australia. A gap analysis will be undertaken to understand today’s position and how will tourist operations move towards the business of 2020. 8 . For example. new product development and marketing. Each workshop will focus around the same question. The workshops will assist researchers to understand the potential impact of megatrends from the bottom up rather than imparting feedback on megatrends from the top down. and ideally enhance. ii. The results from the workshops will be included in the final technical report which will contain detailed recommendations as to stakeholder strategies to maintain. the emerging sectors in Australian tourism.

with changed travel patterns and projected lower growth in established destinations. with the number of international arrivals worldwide increasing to almost 1.4 1. This is 2.0 7.2 0.183 378 Average Annual Growth Rate (%) 1995-2020 4. The figures indicate that tourism overall will continue to grow in the longer term.4 20.0 18.5 3.1 5.4 12.1 101.2 UNWTO Tourism Forecasts to 2020 The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts for the world tourism market in 2020 are provided in Table 1. The anticipated growth rate for tourism volume measured in international tourist arrivals amounts to 4.2 75.5 times the volume recorded in the late 1990s.4 Market share (%) 1995 100 3.9 2020 100 5. By 2020 it is forecast that tourists will be travelling farther afield. WTO Tourism 2020 Vision: Forecast of Inbound Tourism.006 47 190 195 527 36 11 791 216 2020 1.9 6.4 338.2 464.1 17. 18t o u r i s m 2 0 2 0 v i s i o n 2. World by Regions.2 Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Actual data as in WTO database July 2000) The UNWTO forecasts that the number of people travelling will continue to boom in the 21st century.1 6.6 19.1 Emerging Destinations 9 .561 77 282 397 717 69 19 1.4 59.8 2.3 14.7 82.2 108.1 per cent a year – well above the maximum probable expansion of around 3 per cent per year in the world’s wealth.8 24.1 25.9 81.9 4. International Tourist Arrivals by Tourist Receiving Region (million) Base Year 1995 Total Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia Intraregional Long-Haul 565. Table 1.8 5.4 45.6 billion in 2020.5 3.2 3.3 Forecasts 2010 1.4 4.

With an expected growth rate of 7. the Middle East (from 58 to 63 per cent) and South Asia (from 75 to 85 per cent). well above the world average.1 per cent per year. resulting in a decline in market share from 60 per cent to 46 per cent.9 per cent per year) as the second largest receiving region. with growth rates above average.5 per cent per year. will pass the Americas (up 3. • • • • • Of worldwide arrivals in 2020. however.8 per cent a year. Intraregional tourism will subsequently decrease from 82 per cent to 76 per cent of total tourist arrivals over the same period (UNWTO 2002).0 per cent and 4. the large volumes of first time Asian 10 . the Middle East is projected to be the fastest growing region.4 per cent by 2020. forecast international tourism shows the following pattern: • Europe will continue to be the most visited tourist destination in the world with a projected total of 717 million tourists for the year 2020.1 per cent a year. As a result the long-haul share of worldwide tourist arrivals will increase from 18 per cent in 1995 to 24 per cent in 2020.By region. the Americas (from 23 to 38 per cent).2 per cent in 2020. The anticipated growth rate of 3. Africa and the Middle East are forecast to have good prospects. As a result the market share will increase to 1. The respective shares will record some increase to 5. increasing at 6. Long-haul travel is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5.183 million intraregional. East Asia and the Pacific. against 18 per cent by the Americas. holding a 25 per cent market share in 2020. Whereas long-haul will increase its share in Europe (from 12 to 15 per cent between 1995 and 2020). Although relatively small. Growth prospects for the Americas are seen as relatively poor particularly for North America but less so for South and Latin America and the Caribbean. 378 million are forecast to be long-haul travellers and 1. However traffic is expected to grow at significantly different rates in different markets. while intraregional travel increases at a rate of only 3. is one point below the world average. the volume of international tourist arrivals in South Asia is expected to reach 19 million in 2020. Destinations of East Asia and the Pacific will continue the strong performance achieved during the 1980s and 1990s.4 per cent. almost five times higher than in 1995.

0 44.6 1.8 2.6 2.6 7. China 2.5 10.1 3.9 48.1 3. the Middle East and North Africa.travellers (most of whom will choose close-by destinations) will result in a rise in the intraregional share in East Asia and the Pacific (from 79 per cent in 1995 to 81 per cent in 2020). Also entering 11 .9 Market share (%) 1995 3.4 3.3 16.0 43. These new developments will increase the range of experiences offered to potential visitors. World’s Top Destinations. The same pattern is forecast for Africa with the intraregional share of arrivals rising from 57 per cent in 1995 to 65 per cent in 2020. United Kingdom 8.5 273.8 45.7 6.9 1.8 5.4 3. Table 2.9 48. New destinations also include new forms of development within established destinations. Italy 7. Hong Kong (China).1 2.3 6. if treated as a separate entity. Some new destinations will provide the traveller with greater choice and lower cost alternatives to established destinations. United States 4.5 53.4 73.2 9.8 10. Hong Kong (China) 6.0 3.2 Average Annual Growth Rate (%) 1995-2020 7.2 31. Spain 5.0 106.8 4.5 2.1 102. Mexico 9. Principal new international destinations include: China.4 3.0 Forecasts (million) 2020 130.8 6. The world’s main tourism destinations projected for 2020 are highlighted in Table 2. Eastern Europe and Latin America. France 3. will also become one of the main destinations.6 3.6 4.6 6.9 Country Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Actual data as in WTO database July 2000) The UNWTO forecasts that the top ten tourist-receiving countries will see a major change with China becoming the leading destination by 2020.1 23. Vietnam and Mekong River countries.5 20.8 48. 2020 Base Year (million) 1995 1.5 4. Russian Federation 10.0 716.6 52.3 2020 8.1 2.3 38. Czech Republic Total (1-10) 20.9 56.7 3.3 3.0 60.6 7.2 3.

8 84. UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision: Forecast of Outbound Tourism.9 55.1 14. this reflects a loss of world market share to 4.4 per cent.6 4.5 0.7 2.6 Market share (%) 1995 100 2.1 6. which received just under 5.1 6.561 62 232 405 729 35 17 Average Annual Growth Rate (%) 1995-2020 4.6 per cent in 1995.2 3. opportunities exist to access greater shares of these growing markets.5 million in 2020.5 3.3 Forecasts 2010 1. Australia. This is expected to result in inbound numbers of 17. While many destinations will compete with Australia for visitor numbers.006 36 173 193 520 21 10 2020 1.3 1.4 5.5 19.5 million tourists in 2005. Australia is well placed geographically to access the additional tourism flows that will result from the trends identified. 2.0 14.8 2020 100 4. is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.2 1.2 Emerging Origins The main tourism generating areas in 2020 are set out in Table 3. although outside of the top ten. as compared to 4.9 46. while the fast growth Asian destinations of Thailand and Singapore along with South Africa will move rapidly up the list.4 per cent which is well above the world average. Even so.3 312. World by Region.6 8. International Tourist Arrivals from the World by Tourist Generating Region (million) Base Year 1995 Total Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia 565.8 5.9 25. One factor that could work in Australia’s favour is the suggestion that tourism will become more independent for experienced travellers.4 13.1 12 . Destinations will become a ‘fashion accessory’ with potential for rapid growth of new or interesting places (WTO 2002).9 107. The ‘shrinking world’ and growing number of experienced and well-travelled tourists will lead to more tourism to ‘off the beaten track places’. Table 3.the top ten will be the Russian Federation.

13 .0 82. will remain the world’s largest generating region in 2020. North and South Africa). the Middle East and South Asia will each experience above average growth rates (all between 5. Indonesia.3 54 791 216 81 1.1 per cent per year) into third place.6 and 6.2 per cent per year).4 6. The UNWTO forecasts that Europe.1 17. despite its below average annual growth rate of 3. Hong Kong. There is a new mass tourism “wave” that is arising from developing Asian economies and less restrictive travel constraints in the region. and. Mexico.1 101. including the new economic powerhouses of Asia (Korea.5 per cent per year over the period 1995-2020) relegating the Americas (3. Argentina. to some extent. sourcing almost one half of all tourist arrivals worldwide.9 5. Brazil.8 24. New travel patterns reflect changes in consumer behaviour.4 per cent. Singapore and Malaysia) and the increasing number of potential travellers from large population countries (India. in North America (towards Mexico.2 75.2 Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) (Actual data as in WTO database July 2000) Outbound travel is forecast to grow annually by 4. Shifts to North-South tourist flows are occurring in Asia (towards ASEAN countries. Australia and the Pacific Islands).183 378 3. To a lesser extent this type of pent up demand is also becoming evident out of Eastern Europe. Taiwan.Not specified Intraregional (a) Long-Haul (b) 33. and political re-alignments. Africa. The world’s projected top 20 tourism origin markets in 2020 are shown in Table 4.8 5.6 3. There are also emerging markets. the Eastern European countries). Central and South America) and in Europe (towards the Middle East. It is also forecasted that the pent up demand for travel of East Asia and the Pacific will make that region the second largest for outbound travel (average growth of 6.1 per cent to 2020. China. economic strength of source markets.9 464. new destinations.

0 2. Japan outbound tourism is forecast to grow strongly.9 2.3 3.Absolute numbers for 1995 are estimates based on inbound tourism data from destinations Between 1995 and 2020 the list remains largely unchanged with respect to the major industrialised countries . Germany 2.1 7.1 2.8 9. 2020 Base Year (million) 1995 1. predominantly to relatively proximate destinations. Japan 4.Table 4. World’s Top Outbound Countries.4 2.3 2. France 8. Canada 10. Russian Federation Total (1-10) a . United States b 5.9 7.1 52.0 4. Netherlands 9. One is China entering at fourth place with a forecast of generating 100 million arrivals by 2020.Base year 1995 data 12 298 Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) b .4 Long Haul Travel 14 .9 7. The other is the Russian Federation generating over 30 million visitors world-wide.8 2. Internationalism and international travel are key consumer values in Asia and Australia can capitalize on this.8 75 23 63 5 b 3.0 3.7 12. the United States.3 4.8 3. Japan.4 6. However.4 3.1 0.7 2020 9.1 Market share (%) 1995 13. China a a a Country Forecasts (million) 2020 153 142 123 100 95 55 46 35 31 31 809 Average Annual Growth Rate (%) 1995-2020 2. there are two important newcomers. United Kingdom 6. second only to that of China. the United Kingdom and France.1 3.Germany. 2.9 3.3 Intraregional Travel Along with the growth in North-South travel is the growth in relative importance of travel within the Asia-Pacific region.9 3.0 51.5 2.7 3.5 2. Italy a b a a 42 21 22 16 19 b 7. 2.0 4.1 11.9 6.

domestic tourism remains much more important globally. UNWTO forecasts that the main growth in domestic tourism will be in the developing countries of Asia. and economic value using an iterative process. These models provide forecasts based on price.The share of long haul travel in international tourism is projected to rise from 17. Again. Over the forecast period it is projected that most industrialised countries will come close to their ceiling for domestic tourism in respect to the proportion of the participating population and the incidence of their participation. outbound. both in activity and financial terms. Any adjustments are made by consensus. Table 5 contains 15 . as well as significant events affecting source markets.9 per cent in 1995 to 24.2 per cent in 2020. The third and final iteration involves industry and government experts (the TFC) reviewing the forecasts. Latin America. reviewing the model-based forecasts and applying qualitative adjustments. The first iteration involves the TRA Forecasting Unit estimating activity and expenditure using econometric models.5 Domestic Tourism While the UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision study focuses exclusively on international and domestic travel. seasonality. 2.6 Tourism Forecasts for Australia The Tourism Forecasting Committee of Tourism Research Australia produces forecasts for inbound. Australian inbound. The second iteration involves a sub-committee (the TFC Technical Committee) made up of senior researchers and economists (usually from TFC-member organisations) as well as independent advisors. Australia can also capitalize on this growth.australia. income. 2. the Middle East and Africa where the proportion of the population actively participating in domestic tourism will increase strongly (UNWTO 2002). domestic and outbound forecasts to 2015. any adjustments are made by consensus (www.tourism.

7 per cent over the forecast period. Australia Inbound Tourism According to the World Tourism Organisation 2020 Vision. Australia’s share of global visitor arrivals is expected to remain relatively constant at around 0. Figure 2 displays the projected growth path of inbound tourism to 2015 (Tourism Research Australia 2006) 16 .5 per cent.Table 5. total global visitor arrivals are expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4. Tourism Forecasts to 2015.

In terms of economic value. 17 . respectively.2 per cent. in 2005 to 19.2 per cent.4 per cent. This is forecast to increase to 12. China and India’s share is forecast to increase from 8.Visitor arrivals by region can be found in Table 6. Australia Visitor Arrivals by Region Projections are that China and India will provide most of the impetus for changes in regional shares over the forecast period.0 per cent and 1. in 2015. in 2015.9 per cent and 2. China and India will provide most of Figure 2. respectively. Inbound Tourism Growth to 2015. In 2005. China and India’s share of total visitor arrivals were 5.1 per cent.8 per cent and 3.2 per cent and 1. respectively. respectively.

particularly with regard to the emerging market of China. Figure 3 shows that over the medium term. and traditional markets. 18 . TIEV calculates the actual value of international tourism by adjusting IVS expenditure data and therefore allowing for the understatement of one expenditure measure and the overstatement of the other measure to estimate the true value to the Australian economy. UK and USA. the economic contribution of inbound tourism is forecast to grow strongly.Table 7 Inbound Tourism to 2015. by Region The Tourism Forecasting Committee has developed the concept of Tourism Industry Economic Value (TIEV) to indicate the economic contribution from inbound tourism. Australia. TIEV is calculated by applying three general and transparent leakages to the value of prepayments (such as packages and airfares) as well as commissions and other deductions and discounts which will not flow through to the Australian economy.

2006-2015.5 million over the ten years to 2015. A lower Australian dollar will increase the cost of outbound travel 19 . the Australian dollar is assumed to depreciate against most major currencies over the medium term. growth in inbound arrivals is expected to exceed the 2007 growth rate.5 per cent a year over the forecast period. in line with increasing overseas travel aspirations. However. with increases in air capacity combining with a lower Australian dollar and lower oil prices to support the competitiveness of Australia as a travel destination.1 per cent between 2006 and 2015. to reach $35.6 billion. reflecting continued gains in spending per visitor that are partly associated with an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar against most other currencies. Table 8 indicates that departures are forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 5 million in 2006 and to grow at an average annual rate of 2. Economic Contribution from Key Origin Markets. Australia TIEV is forecast to grow in real terms at an average annual rate of 7.8 per cent to reach 6. Outbound Tourism Outbound departures are forecast to grow relatively strongly over the coming decade.Figure 3. Looking further out. This is higher than the forecast average growth in visitor arrivals of 5.

8 per cent. outbound departures are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 2.5 million. a risk to future growth may be recent trends seen in allocating discretionary expenditure where tourism consumption in general has become softer as competition 20 . Over the period to 2015. Australian Bureau of Statistics demographic forecasts are predicting the 65+ age group will increase significantly over the next 10-20 years. to reach 6. It is also likely that the “baby-boom” generation will have a higher propensity to travel internationally after retirement than did previous retiree generations. Table 8 Outbound Tourism to 2015. This shift may also benefit outbound travel at the expense of domestic travel as older people generally have more time and more disposable income available for Australians and thus lower growth in departures while supporting growth in domestic travel. Australia On average. Australia’s population is fairly young compared with other developed countries and younger people may be more willing to travel internationally. However.

become increasingly more price competitive and/or more convenient.6 million. This figure will represent an average annual growth of only 0. Domestic Tourism Domestic visitor nights are forecast to increase by 0. This rate is lower than the ABS forecast for population growth. to reach 85. and electronics.8 per cent).from other goods and services. domestic visitor nights in commercial accommodation are forecast to rise at a faster pace than total visitor nights. in particular household.5 per cent a year between 2005 and 2015. trips is expected to continue over the medium term with average annual growth of 0. implying further declines in the average propensity to travel (Tourism Australia 2006).5 per cent on average annually to 2015. A trend toward shorter.2 per cent in 2005 to 30 per cent in 2015 (Tourism Australia 2006). including overseas travel. This implies an increase in the share of domestic visitor nights in commercial accommodation from 28. However. Figure 4: Economic Value of Domestic Visitor Nights 21 . As a result. reaching 291 million nights in 2015. Competitive pressures are expected to remain firm over the outlook period. Tourism Australia also notes that domestic tourism is facing intensifying competitive pressure from other goods and services. Australian’s propensity to undertake outbound travel has increased from around 0. average annual growth in outbound travel of 2. According to the TRA National Visitor Survey. increasing at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent is forecast to remain higher than average annual population growth.3 per cent between 2006 and 2015.24 over the period 1998 to 2005 (representing average annual growth of 3. clothing.20 trips per person to 0. implying further increases in the propensity of the Australian population to travel overseas.7 per cent over that period leading to TDEV of $59 billion (in real terms) in 2015. Over the forecast period. but higher yielding. the TFC forecast domestic visitor nights to grow only marginally over the medium term.

where the latter are developed for business planning purposes as levels to aspire to in terms of planning and performance management. it is important to note that the TFC produces ‘forecasts’ as distinct from ‘targets’. We highlight 5 key drivers considered to underpin the general trends (1) Globalisation and long term economic trends. The National Intelligence Council (NIC. 22 . Thus. Held. McGrew. has worked to identify global drivers and trends that will shape the world of 2020. Glenn and Gordon 2000). Goldblatt and Perraton 1999. and the impact of policy and industry changes. It is this literature that has informed the UNWTO travel forecasts. 3 Global Trends Affecting Tourism Various scenarios of world futures are being advanced (Hammond 1998. 2004). current information.The TFC forecasts (Tourism Australia 2006) represent the most likely outcome given past trends. in close collaboration with US Government specialists and a wide range of experts outside the government.

(2) Demographic trends (3) Political trends (4) Environment, Energy and Natural Resources Trends. (5) Changes in Technology In examining these drivers, several points should be kept in mind:
• • •

No single driver or trend will dominate the global future in 2020. Each driver will have varying impacts in different regions and countries. The drivers can be mutually reinforcing and in some cases, they will work at cross-purposes.

Taken together, these drivers and trends set the context in which the Australian tourism industry may be expected to develop to 2020. They provide a flexible framework to discuss and debate the future of tourism demand and supply in Australia.

3.1 Globalisation and Long term Economic Trends

3.1.1 A Growing World Economy
For the long term, continued moderate-to-good rates of global economic growth are anticipated by major global financial and economic institutions. Most projections indicate that the world economy is likely to continue growing impressively at least over the next decade and a half. The World Bank forecast is that annual output growth in the developing world will be a mid-to-high of 4% with that of industrialised countries around 2.5% or better (World Bank 2001). By 2020, the world economy is projected to be about 80% larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50% higher. Most countries around the world, both developed and developing, will benefit from gains in the world economy. Provided Asia’s rapid economic growth continues,

with the fastest-growing consumer markets, more firms becoming world-class multinationals, and greater diffusion of science and technology, Asia looks set to displace Western countries as the focus for international economic dynamism.

3.1.2 Globalization
Globalization, the growing interconnectedness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world, is seen by many as an overarching “mega-trend,” a force so ubiquitous that it will substantially shape all the other major trends in the world of 2020. Globalisation is a product of the revolutions in telecommunications, computing, the growth of free trade, the decline of communism and the democratisation of financial markets. Increased international connectivity will continue to change the shape of modern life, further diminishing the constraints of physical boundaries and extending the geographical scope of social networks. Globalisation is a powerful force shaping national and regional economies, which are linked and interdependent as never before. There are seven main factors that will combine to promote widespread economic dynamism and growth and continue to drive globalization (NIC 1999).

Political pressures for higher living standards. The growing global middle class — now 2 billion strong—is creating a cycle of rising aspirations, with increased information flows and the spread of democracy giving political clout to formerly disenfranchised citizens. Large parts of the globe will enjoy unprecedented prosperity. Improved macroeconomic policies. The widespread improvement in recent years in economic policy and management sets the stage for future dynamism. Inflation rates have been dramatically lowered across a wide range of economies and are expected to remain at low levels. The abandonment of unsustainable fixed exchange rate regimes in Asia and


the creation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) are contributing to economic growth. Deregulation/Liberalisation. Liberalization of air transport and open skies policy is increasingly recognised to enhance trade and tourism growth. Artificial barriers to travel will continue to come down with the deregulation of international air travel and the decline in usefulness of bilateral agreements. Political realignments in the EC and North America free trade zone will encourage travel within each region. Efforts to remove barriers to international travel by means of the ongoing liberalisation of transport and other forms of deregulation are expected to continue. Rising trade and investment. International trade and investment flows will grow, spurring increases in world GDP. Opposition to further trade liberalization from special interest groups and some governments will not erode the basic trend toward expansion of trade. International capital flows, which have risen dramatically in the past decade, will remain plentiful, especially for emerging market countries that increase their transparency. Diffusion of information technology. The pervasive incorporation of information technologies will continue to produce significant efficiency gains in the developed economies. The growing two-way flow of high-tech brain power between the developing world and the West, the increasing size of the information computer-literate work force in some developing countries, and efforts by global corporations to diversify their high-tech operations will foster the spread of new technologies. The greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries and groups that can access and adopt new technologies. Indeed, a nation’s level of technological achievement generally will be defined in terms of its investment in integrating and applying the new, globally available technologies. Increasingly dynamic private sectors. Rapid expansion of the private sector in many emerging market countries—along with deregulation and privatization in Europe and


This has substantial implications 26 . and training that provides people with the skills to work in different cultural environments (UNWTO 2002). encompassing the current.Japan—will spur economic growth by generating competitive pressures to use resources more efficiently. India. China and India. and those operating in the global arena will be more diverse. all countries are integrally locked into the global economy. However. Implications of this are: an increase in mobility and a subsequent demand for people with language skills and demand by people for language training. more Asian and less Western in orientation. The gradual integration of China. The increasing maturity of global financial markets continues to foster financial innovation with private equity buyouts. further integrating the world economy. Such corporations. Evolving global financial markets. both in size and origin. and promoting economic progress in the developing world. This dynamism is expected to be broadly based worldwide but should be strongest among so-called "emerging markets"—especially in the two Asian giants. and no aspiring market leader in any industry can succeed without operating (or establishing networks in) all major industrialized and emerging markets. large multinationals. Labour mobility will increase as the internet provides greater opportunities to gain jobs internationally. and other emerging countries into the global economy will result in hundreds of millions of working-age adults becoming available for employment in what is evolving into a more integrated and interrelated world labour market. The impact of improved efficiencies will be multiplied as the information revolution enhances the ability of firms around the world to learn "best practices" from the most successful enterprises. More firms will become global. will be increasingly outside the control of any one state and will be key agents of change in dispersing technology widely.

Even when population declines in developed countries. economic growth is expected to continue. Within countries. These brakes to growth can include downturns in key economies with attendant spill over implications for other economies. Even in rapidly growing countries.1. including on travel and tourism. combined with greater available leisure time. Rapidly rising incomes for a growing middle class in Asia will combine to mean a huge consumption explosion (National Intelligence Council 2004) resulting in increasing discretionary spending. some of them potentially highly disruptive.3.3 Possible Brakes to Growth Economic liberalization and globalization entail risks and. 3. Lim 1999). Economic growth and greater spending power. and situations of unequal growth prospects and distribution.4 Relevance for Tourism These drivers and trends will influence tourism in a number of ways. and regional differences will remain large. • International and domestic tourism: The projected dynamic world economy is forecast to provide the basis for increased international and domestic tourism. will allow greater numbers of people to have the opportunity to travel. including tourism (WTO Tourism 2020 Vision) 27 . Therefore it is expected that people in these markets will have more disposable income for higher-value products. The countries and regions most at risk of falling behind economically are those with endemic internal and/or regional conflicts and those that fail to diversify their economies. inevitably. large regions will experience low growth relative to others (NIC 1999). disputes over international economic rules. The deregulation associated with globalization will also positively influence inbound and outbound tourism flows. there will be problems. a) Studies indicate that rising income is the most powerful generator of tourism flows (Crouch 1994. the gap in the standard of living also will increase.1. The information revolution will make the persistence of poverty more visible. with higher productivity allowing per capita incomes and consumption to rise.

particularly China and India will generate large numbers of tourists. Individual country demand for international tourism over the longer term will continue to be determined by exchange rates and economic growth rates. and what experiences they will seek. economies of both scale and scope. to a lesser extent. Those which do not adopt ICT will lag in maintaining a competitive advantage. At the other end of the scale niche operators will further offer special products and services. Large travel and tourism operators will continue to cater for a larger volume of tourist movements. as will the rapidly developing countries including Indonesia. domestic tourism. the Russian Federation and those in Eastern Europe. The expanding economies of Asia. and their huge investment in electronic databases and marketing. The impact on tourism is that more power will be obtained by the relatively small number of large global travel and tourism networks.• Outbound tourism: The continued growth of national economies will generate increased outbound tourism and. like every other industry will have to deal with the trend of globalization. Brazil. experiences to individuals and collections of tourists with their eclectic tastes As tourism is a high-profile industry. mainstream or mass tourism. The spread of the multinational and transnational corporation in travel and tourism will continue through their economies of scale and scope. b) The diffusion of ICT: Drives globalization and can enhance the competitive advantage of destinations comprised of tourism businesses that operate strategically to gain visitors and their associated expenditure. will depend on other factors which will be discussed below. the response from local communities could well be unpredictable. These networks are achieving globalisation not only through vertical and horizontal integration but through diagonal integration. especially in places where such images are not popular (PATA 1999). accommodation. The choice 28 . c) Tourism networks: Tourism. Where tourists will actually go. d) Choice of destination region: Economic factors will thus remain positive for tourism.

including in Australia.of destination region will be determined by economic factors. the availability of time as well as perceived desirability. These variables include: • • • • • • • • • Population and Ageing Urbanisation Changing Social Structures Health Aspirations and Expectations Values and Lifestyles Changing Work Patterns Gender Education 29 . Strong economic growth in China and India should boost tourism demand. but a strong $A due to strong resource demands from China would erode Australia’s tourism share (Carmody 2005).2 Demographic trends Unprecedented demographic shifts are having profound effects on virtually every social institution. strong growth may be associated with switching patterns. f) Chinese and Indian industrialisation is a mixed blessing for most other countries and particularly for Australian tourism. That is. 3. e) Growth in business travel: Global firms will require a global workforce which will increase movements of people to developed economies and a growing number of expatriate workers (NIC 2000). This might help to contain inflation by keeping manufactured products cheap relative to services. but also help keep oil demand and prices high. The increase in mobility of business will lead to high rates of growth in business travel.

2 billion. World population is currently growing by about 80 million people per year. pensions. The rate will slow to 50 million per year by 2015. often part-time or in consulting capacities. Governments will seek to mitigate the problem through such measures as delaying retirement and encouraging greater participation in the work force. At present. The distinction between working life and retirement may become blurred and in developed countries the average age of effective retirement may increase to 75 years. • In developed countries and advanced developing countries. On current trends. • While there will be a further massive increase in world population overall. the length of ‘life-long education’ may 30 . and health systems. (The National Intelligence Council 2000) • ‘Senior citizens’ will be regarded as ‘older’ rather than ‘old’.2. • In the advanced and emerging market economies. as birth rates decline worldwide. declining birth rates will cause a marked fall in population in developed countries. Many older people will stay in the work force longer. increased life expectancy and falling fertility rates result in an ageing population.1 Population and Ageing • World population in 2015 will be 7.3. nearly all in rapidly expanding urban areas. By 2020. • More than 95% of the increase in world population will be found in developing countries. up from 6. healthier lives as science discovers new treatments and pushes back the frontier of aging. one out of every eight people will be 60 years old or over. If the age of effective retirement increases. the declining ratio of working people to retirees will strain social services. one out of every 10 people in the world is aged 60 and over.1 billion in the year 2000 from around six billion at present. between now and the year 2050 the population of developed nations will decline by almost 100 million people. Major medical advances will enable people to live longer.

2 Urbanisation • There is a worldwide trend towards urbanisation. particularly when combined with high unemployment or communal tension. competition for land use. The aspirational age of 12 year olds is 17.2. • In some developing countries. • Age complexity is occurring. Managing huge cities will be a significant new problem. a high proportion of young people will be destabilizing.also increase. 3. will double to about 30. enjoy better health and be more affluent (UNWTO 2002). and the rise of services at the expense of other sectors of economies. drought and famine. and legislation governing land use. interests and pastimes. Products for children will need to have cool teen attributes. Not only will there be more old people but they will be more active. environmental pressures. More than 95% of the increase in world population will be found in developing countries. more than 60 per cent of people will live in cities. • A number of factors are contributing to the increasing rate of urbanisation including: rural poverty. (The National Intelligence Council 2000) 3.3 Changing Social Structures in Developed Economies 31 . nearly all in rapidly expanding urban areas. However. these same trends will combine to expand the size of the working population and reduce the youth bulge—increasing the potential for economic growth. megalopolises of more than 10 million people. Adults are behaving more like teenagers in dress sense. By 2020. diminishing viability of many small-scale and traditional farms. especially in marginal and ecologically significant areas. eating habits.2. an ageing population seeking the amenities of city life. • The number of very large cities. Children are growing up faster but more adults want to be teenagers.

staff activities.businessweek. They are on a search for fun. It is 60 million strong. or one adult and one child. The more relaxed the environment. Communicating to this generation requires openness. accepted. When deciding to accept a job. In developed countries. They want community: to be understood.but rather they work to live. and genuine interest in those we are trying to teach. salary ranks sixth in order of importance after training. A job merely provides the income to do what they want to do. the better will be the quality of the learning. Generation Y are using computers in nursery school. and more than three times the size of Generation X. and the more socially conducive to discussions. One in four lives in a single-parent household. respected. and included. and above all else. (Business Week Online http://www. for a fulfilling and for spiritual meaning (1 in 3 claim to regularly take part in a religious service of some sort). vulnerability. This generation is more racially diverse: One in three is not Caucasian. Three in four have working mothers. • Gen Y seeks more than just friendships. (McCrindle No Date) 32 . A new definition of family is evolving to include any combination of two or more people living in a domestic household comprising a minimum of two adults.htm February 15 1999 accessed 4/02/07). understanding. Therefore they are looking for more than just continuing the consumerism experiment. making them as young as five and as old as 20. family households are getting smaller and sole-parent and single-person households are becoming more common in part due to lower fertility rates and higher divorce rates. • Generation Y is the biggest bulge since the baby boomers. and non-financial rewards.• Household types are diversifying away from the traditional ‘nuclear’ family in contemporary western society. work flexibility. for quality friendships. with the largest proportion still a few years away from adolescence. While boomers are still mastering Microsoft Windows 98. The young people of this generation do not live to work. Demographers locate Generation Y between 1979 and 1994. management style.

Thus for several years. They do not form a homogeneous market due to their racial and ethnic diversity. Baby boomers don’t think of themselves as old and their can do attitude will flow over into recreational choices. most who are in their 60s and early 70s appear to be in good health and to lead productive lives (McDonald and Kippen 1999 .5 Aspirations and Expectations 33 . the “baby boomers” who will begin to turn 65 in 2011 will represent a large group of “older” people taking up travel opportunities. brand-conscious world. Millward 1998). Generation Y’s respond to humour. Subsequently they respond to ads differently. • Generation Y will more readily switch their loyalty and are deeply involved in family purchases. 3. • Although older people are more likely to have disabilities than younger people (AIHW 2000). • There is a growing recognition that physical and mental well-being matter.2. 3. People are increasingly becoming more concerned about their health and well-being.2. irony. Greater value is being placed on de-stressing and self-medicating. and the (apparently) unvarnished truth. The internet is their medium of choice. and prefer to encounter those ads in different places.• Generation Y have grown up in a even media-saturated. Coupled with better health they will demand products and services that cater to their aging needs.4 Health • High standards of public health in developed countries has contributed to increased longevity.

not only in private. As people look for new meanings from 34 .6 Values and Lifestyles In the developing countries. and experiences they buy to their specific wants and needs. consumer behaviour. The urge to define one’s self by the products and services consumed provides the backdrop for lifestyle choice. the adult population has more time and more money to spend on leisure pursuits and activities. political behaviour. An increasing proportion of the population of the developing countries is in a “time poor . which is driving an expectation for almost universal customization. spiritual arenas but in all aspects of people’s lives. 3. Money rich-time poor. several emerging values can be said to characterise populations. As consumers material needs are satisfied they will require something more. Individualism. Consumers are increasingly demanding the opportunity to customize or personalise the products. and the adventure or education oriented at the other. The UNWTO (2002) refers to the ‘polarisation of tourist taste’s with comfort-based demands at one extreme. Overall. education choices and expectations (Education Commission of the United States 1999). and consumers are more and more looking for new and interesting experiences through an ever-broadening array of activities.The growing complexity of 21st century life is driving a need for greater clarity and a quest for a deeper personal sense of meaning. they seek newer/richer/deeper experiences. Self improvement. services.2. The focus is switching to delivering unique experiences that personally engage the rich” situation. The industrialised world is in transition from the service to the experience economy. including those of work and consumption. Seeking a variety of experiences. Consumer behaviour is being driven by a desire to self-differentiate.

but too impatient to give a second chance to a product or service that fails to satisfy initially.their consumption of goods and services in a way consistent with Maslow’s selfactualisation concept. Affluent consumers are turning to ethical consumption (Yeoman 2005). Safety conscious. the consumer marketing battle is likely to see a shift from competitive pricing towards service improvement. Experimental. their desire for self-actualisation becomes a search for a wider meaning and sense of worth beyond material possessions. they are extremely experimental. but are becoming increasingly important for all aspects of life. people are increasingly sceptical of marketers. pollution. Safety issues. foods and attractions. Awareness will be further increased by media reporting on major problems such as threat to rainforests. In the developed countries in particular. As knowledge and understanding of ecosystems and human impacts on the environment improve. global warming. quality and opportunity and which invokes environmental and social concerns. including occupational health and safety. The public awareness of socio-cultural and environmental issues will continue in the coming years. have been recognised as important for some time. This refers to the motivation to purchase that which lies beyond the stimulus of price. coral reef bleaching and issues like the dwindling water supplies worldwide and via direct experience of global warming impacts. 35 . However. Concerns for the environment will be conflicted by an emphasis on hedonism. Social and Environmental Concern. Seeking value for money. calls for environmental protection will increase (Costello 2002). Because consumers will increasingly have access to and information about pricing and customer satisfaction through the internet. willing to try new products.

Demographic trends will compel businesses to change their practice of forcing older. and they are not willing to sacrifice their personal and family-related goals for their careers. increasing conservatism and an emphasis on hedonism. the children of the post WW 2 baby-Boomers. Home and office will mesh as workers demand more flexibility. This means that businesses will need to integrate. work ethics. to established political parties or even to branded products. with less routine attendance at a central place of work and more working from a fully equipped electronic home office. While the skills and knowledge of older workers will assume more value. They prefer to own a business rather as opposed to being a top executive. norms of behaviour. and expectations.2. There is an increasing and conflicting concern for the environment. Work patterns and practices will undergo significant change. higher paid workers out of the ranks. In particular. 3. Generations X and COM. Generation X employees want to control where and when they work. This will result in a blurring of the distinction between work and leisure (Gerkovich 2005). They have little or no loyalty to their employers.7 Changing Work Patterns • People are demanding to work flexibly. as opposed to assimilate. skillupgrading and elder care. • Mobility will increase as internet web sites allow people to find work in different parts of the world. 36 . In Australia the new IR Legislation allows the trading of holidays for cash. This has obvious implications for the domestic tourism industry as workers switch holidays for work time. are increasingly entrepreneurial and are starting up new businesses at an unprecedented rate. their bosses. There is an emerging conflict between consumerism and a wider concern for the community and societal impacts of business operations. a more culturally diverse work force that has divergent values. businesses will need to develop ways for older people to stay in the work force longer such as flexible scheduling.Conflicting Values: Consumerism Vs Ethical Consumption.

8 Gender • Society will become more feminised. intelligent. • • • 37 . The traditional distinction between the roles of men and women is becoming more blurred. take a more active role in parenting. discerning in their choices. DIY) or for leisure activities and holidays. and enjoy increased earning power. • • The urban-professional women in a developed society is 25-50 years old and is generally educated. busy. computer savvy. They will make up nearly 60% of community site users. are more fashion orientated. whether for products not traditionally associated with women (e. open to new ideas and concepts. Women will share information online like they do in the real world . and develop beauty regimes including plastic surgery. forums and blogs. and techoptimists (urbanboheme. Men are becoming more Businesses will need to recognise that women with diverse family structures and responsibilities are a more important part of the work force.through transfer of knowledge through emails. reviews. marry later in life or stay single. self in Tourism Futures 2006).3. Spending time on the Internet has become the leading media choice among women. They will need to continue to reform work places to enable women to participate more fully and for men and women alike to have the time and resources needed to invest in heir children. (James 1997). Women outnumber men online and book more leisure trips ( in Tourism Futures 2006).2. well-informed. More women will have college degrees. newsletters. Women are having a far greater say than they used to in purchase decisions. Women are having more and more influence on all the key decisions that used to be made by men and this needs to be taken into account in the nature of service delivery.g.

skills and access knowledge age services. self-motivated. globalisation etc. 38 . and staffed with highly educated workers valued as ‘human capital’ and organisations with external knowledge focusing on organizational culture that enshrines life-long learning.9 Education The globalizing economy and technological change inevitably place an increasing premium on a more highly skilled labour force. We are entering a new knowledge age characterized by educated. new skills are required to manage media relations. 3.2. equipment and investment in human resources (de Jong 2005). This includes innovative businesses that are well attuned to their customers needs. This demand in conjunction with other social changes will affect tourist characteristics and tourism flows. networked individuals. It also includes social infrastructure that maximises opportunities for individuals and businesses to be innovative. product development. distribution systems.3. But this is changing. The internet will continue to expand global employment opportunities. given the recognised need to attract good professionals and innovators (Bergsma 2000). Historically. Increasingly education will be a determinative of success for destinations and businesses.2. Therefore. learn and develop knowledge.10 Relevance for Tourism The increasing expectations of people will generate more demand for discretionary expenditure on travel and tourism. cultural degradation. Resulting in increased demand for languages and cultural understanding. (de Jong 2005). security concerns. Good management is replacing marketing as the key issue of success. there has been a huge imbalance between investment in technology.

b) Evolving tourists • Characteristics of the evolving tourist include seeking ‘experiences’. less loyal. • They have an increased social and environmental consciousness. being hedonistic. discerning. not necessarily low prices. will imply more potential travellers. seeking value for money. and for single people. seeking ‘authentic’ tourism experiences. individualistic and desiring self improvement. quality conscious. Tourists typically are becoming more critical. The growing urban congestion in both the industrialised and developing worlds leads to the increasingly felt need to engage in discretionary tourism to escape and/or to indulge. Aging of populations has implications for the type of tourism experiences that will be demanded by visitors and the types of products and services that tourism businesses need to develop. • One result of the experience economy and tourism has been a fragmentation of the tourist market into sub-sets of unique experiences. especially given the expected increased economic growth in the majority of countries. The evolving tourist is also referred to as the ‘experiential’ traveller (ATS Group Pty Ltd 2001). having greater flexibility in the taking of leisure time. • The family holiday remains. with improved health for older persons. 39 . • The greater pressure on “time” and rising “stress” levels leads to growing emphasis on the means of “escape” through holidays. • An increasing world population. They wish to be involved as participators not spectators and seek a variety of optional experiences as a tourist. being money rich-time poor.a) Tourism flows: The above demographic changes have substantial implications for tourism flows over the next 15 years. but the growth will be in holidays for the retired.

single currency. By most measures — market size. reform their social 40 . • At the same time they are becoming more interested in self improvement as part of the tourism experience with an emphasis on health.1 Existing and Emerging Global Players USA. globalization could be equated in the popular mind with a rising Asia. highly skilled work force. learning about and more intimately being included in the everyday life of the destinations they visit. Tourists are increasingly interested in discovering. participating in. and unified trade bloc—an enlarged Europe will be able to increase its weight on the international scene. replacing its current association with Americanization. By 2020. Europe’s strength could be in providing a model of global and regional governance to the rising powers. education. Holidays are becoming more specialised. But aging populations and shrinking work forces in most European countries will have an important impact on the continent. stable democratic governments. Either European countries adapt their work forces. experiencing. Travel and tourism experiences will be increasingly factored in to the values and lifestyles of the growing middle class world-wide. Globalization will take on an increasingly non-Western character.• Parallel to changes in demography is a change in taste.3. The role of the United States will be an important factor in influencing the path that states and non-state actors choose to follow. well-being.3 Political Trends 3. 3. and increasingly carry with them some kind of educational or cultural experience. skill development and cultural appreciation. Although the USA is very likely to remain the most important single country across all the dimensions of power in 2020. • Changing work patterns allow for more flexibility of travel plans. the USA will see its relative power position eroded. Europe.

However. The likely emergence of China and India as new major global players will transform the geopolitical landscape. The “arriviste” powers—China. A combination of sustained high economic growth. While these social and political factors limit the extent to which Russia can be a major global player. it borders an unstable region in the Caucasus and Central Asia. expanding military capabilities. China and India are well positioned to become technology leaders. China and India. Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations—projected by the US Census Bureau to be 1. and perhaps others such as Brazil and Indonesia. Russia has the potential to enhance its international role with others due to its position as a major oil and gas exporter. Yet how they exercise their growing power and whether they relate cooperatively or competitively to other powers in the international system are key uncertainties. and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power of China and India.3 billion respectively by 2020—their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers. education and tax systems. Traditional geographic groupings will increasingly change in international relations. aligned and non-aligned. Russia faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates. poor medical care. To the south. the effects of which—Muslim extremism. India. Japan faces a similar aging crisis that could crimp its longer run economic recovery. developed and developing. but it also will be challenged to evaluate its regional status and role. Moscow is likely to be an important partner both for 41 . both of which could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020 —have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of East and West. and a potentially explosive AIDS situation. terrorism. or they face a period of protracted economic stasis. North and South.welfare.4 billion and almost 1. and endemic conflict—are likely to continue spilling over into Russia. and accommodate growing immigrant populations (chiefly from Muslim countries).

2004 Advances in technology and weaponry. The face of ‘crime’ in the 21st century is more likely 42 . and resources necessary for a terrorist operation are readily available on the internet (Browne. encouraging restrictive border control policies. information on weapons – including weapons of mass destruction – targets. 3. One of the biggest threats to tourism development is the threat of terrorism. and for the rising powers of China and India. 2005). Terrorism and internal conflicts can interrupt the process of globalization by significantly increasing security costs associated with international commerce. the United States and Europe. Governments need to ensure freedom of personal travel while still protecting people from those who would seek to harm them by tighter security measures. due to internet use (NIC 2004). issues and fallout from heightened security and terror which are likely to continue.3.the established powers. 2004). will continue to support military and terrorist activity. Cyber terrorism There is an expected increase in “cyber terrorism” to damage computer systems and disrupt critical information networks. and the threat of terrorism is likely to become more decentralized.2 Power of ‘non-state’ actors In terms of political trends. Furthermore. The key cyber battlefield of the future will be the information on computer systems themselves. and adversely affecting trade patterns and financial markets. The key factors that spawned international terrorism show no signs of abating over the next 15 years. Both real and perceived risks associated with international tourism place serious constraints on tourist behaviour. which is far more valuable and vulnerable than physical systems (NIC. tactics. perhaps the greatest will be effects. making tourism vulnerable to terrorist behaviour. the world faces the challenge of confronting networked terrorism (Gunaratna and Jones. Today.

especially China and Taiwan. Not surprisingly. ownership. India and Pakistan. for example thumb prints. infotech and biotech crimes. However. but regional conflicts are likely. Thus terrorism and internal conflicts could interrupt the process of globalization by significantly increasing security costs. and terrorism – on an information highway without borders. 2002) and traditional border issues such as trade and migration are now evaluated through a security lens. politicians from across the political spectrum have been rushing to demonstrate their commitment to securing borders – (also see DPMC. this is already widely adopted in nations such as the UK and the USA and is likely to continue to spread to other nations. however in the current security environment. 2004). encouraging restrictive border control policies and to an extent creating barriers and deterrents to tourism. The passport is a political tool because it allows discrimination in terms of who can and cannot travel. 2003). political debate and policy practice has seen a re-emergence of stricter border controls in places like the USMexico and US-Canada borders post 9/11 (Goodrich. Potential Conflict On future conflict – war among developed countries is likely to be rare. Asian rivals. 2005). As nations struggle to facilitate detailed processing of arrivals in the new security environment. they will adopt new technologies to assist in speed and efficiency. 2003). or jurisdiction (Stephens. Since then. even occasionally high profile individuals. will 43 . Globalisation is considered to be about ‘breaking down barriers and borders’. Border control A ‘border-free’ vision was one of the first casualties of the devastating terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 in the USA (9/11) ( surface in the form of ‘white-collar’ crimes (costing billions for investors and retirees). Some regard new technologies of surveillance and mobility regimes as turning individuals into data by digitizing body parts (Browne. passports and visas no longer facilitate movement between countries but rather are instruments of exclusion.

the unprecedented risk of infectious disease and other health-related crises. Such nations are often reluctant to report or are incapable of monitoring infectious outbreaks (Ritcher. 2005 states that biosecurity is a major issue for agricultural economies such as Australia and New Zealand. especially within weak nations. tourism is regarded as a major area of biosecurity risk 44 .have high conflict potential. and WMD proliferation (NIC. Growth in international travel and tourism will bring with it. Tourism is an important and increasing part of the growth in population mobility. terrorism. Political consideration can be more important than epidemiological data in public health decision-making. have been slow to strike the right balance between timely and frequent risk communication and placing risk in the proper context (Wilder-Smith. 2001). organized crime.. The 21st century will require a genuine comprehensive security outlook that needs to be formulated into ASEAN’s regional resilience doctrine (Luhulima. economic pressures to promote tourism mean that even the most dangerous. could trigger large-scale clashes among states attempting to assert their interests (Johnson. amongst other things. However. 3. Hall. Governments and the media. infected. 2003). Regional Response A characteristic of the post 9/11 environment is that terrorists groups are networked across countries and regions. Internal conflicts. These factors will demand origin countries take increasing responsibility for their citizens abroad through the monitoring and communicating of potential health related crises. as will adversaries in the Middle East.3 Health risks and security The steady increase in international travel is a driving force in the global emergence and spread of infectious diseases (Perz et al. Regionally based institutions will be particularly challenged to meet complex transnational threats posed by economic upheavals. 2004). 2000).3. Quarantine/Customs and Biosecurity. and poverty-stricken countries are still vying for tourists. Therefore. 2001). 2005).

likely to become less Westernised World economy substantially larger Key uncertainties Whether globalisation will pull in lagging economies. managing or containing financial crises Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of Extent to which connectivity challenges governments new technologies Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights Aging population in established powers Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly Ability of EU and Japan to adapt workforces. growth of jihadist ideology Energy supplies ‘ in the ground’ sufficient to meet global demand Growing power of non-state actors Political Islam remains a potent force 45 . Table 9: The 2020 global landscape. A summary of the key political trends identified by the US National Intelligence Council are set out in Table 9. degrees to which Asian countries set new ‘rules of the game’ Extent of gaps between ‘haves’ and ‘haves not’. CCTV (public space TV cameras used to monitor and /or prevent crime). But less tangible factors such as a general decline in feelings of safety in public in the late-modern era. the tendency for security to be commodified. backsliding by fragile democracies. In urban areas. The ‘official’ rationale is that it is a cost-effective way to combat public crime and disorder.and is a focal point of border control activities. welfare systems. Relative certainties Globalisation largely irreversible. but also may feel his/her privacy is impinged. city officials are responding by adding technology surveillance. whether EU becomes a superpower Political instability in producer countries supply disruptions Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors Impact of religion on unity of states and potential for conflict. particularly in agriculturally based economies and regions Political pressure for assuring tourist safety. and integrate migrant populations. and competition between and within urban venues to attract and retain customers are critical in fuelling demands for ‘something to be done’ (Sutton and Wilson. for example. So the tourist may feel ‘safer’ in a city with CCTV. 2004).

weapons. Those countries that pursue policies that support new technologies could leapfrog stages of development. and appropriate regulatory policies. radiological. Asia.3. disease. chemical.5 Governance Regarding national and international governance.4 Haves Vs Have Nots As the discussion of globalization indicated. financial transactions. Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington. The expansion of China. Arc of instability spanning Middle East. or nuclear weapons. Corporations and non- 46 . even though the present powers are likely to remain global leaders out to 2020.Improved WMD (weapons of mass destruction) capabilities of some states. the gap between the “haves” and “havenots” will widen unless the “have-not” countries pursue policies that support application of new technologies — such as good governance. The absorption of IT and its benefits will not be automatic because many countries will fail to meet the conditions needed for effective IT utilization — high educational levels. established governments are likely to lose some control over their borders as migrants.3. universal education. and information of all kinds move about the world. whether US loses science and technology threat. and market reforms. technologically. Rising powers may see the exploitation of the opportunities afforded by the emerging global marketplace as the best way to assert their great power status on the world stage. India. militarily Source: The US National Intelligence Council on the Changing Geopolitical Landscape (2005) 3. Africa Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore US will remain single most powerful actor economically. ability of terrorists to acquire biological. technology. More or fewer nuclear powers. 3. adequate infrastructure. skipping over phases that other high-tech leaders such as the United States and Europe had to traverse in order to advance. and others is evidence of a closing gap.

8 Relevance of Political Trends for Tourism The political trends identified above will affect tourism flows globally in the following ways: • Destinations that are perceived to be less safe and secure will be avoided by tourists. Internal conflicts. 3. India and Pakistan. security. 2001).3. Winners and losers in globalisation will emerge: effective governments in 2020 are expected to profit from opportunistic new partnerships. Asian rivals. This has confounded ‘end of history’ theses which predicted global cultural and political homogenisation. especially within weak nations.profit organisations will exert more influence on state affairs. especially China and Taiwan. and foresaw the marginalisation of non-western cultures. safety. fulfilling a role vacated by earlier ideologies of the “Cold War” years. will have high conflict potential. Any threat to the safety of tourists cause the decrease or total absence of activity in an affected destination.3. 3.7 Arc of Instability War among the developed countries is unlikely over the next 15 years.3. Peace. and political stability are fundamental requirements for tourism development success at the destination level. but regional conflicts are likely. as will adversaries in the Middle East. 3. while incompetent governments are more likely to struggle (Johnson. could trigger large-scale clashes among states attempting to assert their interests (Johnson.6 Political Islam Islam has emerged as the focus of global dissent. The rise of radical Islam coincides with a period of turmoil inside Muslim countries which are struggling to find just social systems. 2001). which in turn may 47 .

Mistilis and Sheldon (2005. with many negative implications for the tourism industry both locally in the US and abroad as the tourism environment has been perceived to have changed considerably. Tourism’s vulnerability raises the need to have and effectively be able to implement disaster management strategies. In practice increased and ‘sustained’ enforcement crackdown at borders may do more to inhibit legitimate travel and trade than terrorists (Andreas. • Enclave tourism strategies need to be re-examined in the context of world terrorism and trends in security and risk management strategies that arise from this new terrorism 48 . 2006). may have implications for border tourism destinations (Cothran and Cothran. • Conflicts in and around the Middle East have capacity to substantially increase fuel costs of travel. as outlined in Goodrich. particularly at the destination level (Faulkner. practices and attitudes towards security and border controls. Conflicts between countries will constrain tourism flows overall but can also benefit destinations perceived to be ‘safe’. It has been suggested that the increased volume of global tourism activity has combined with the attractiveness of high-risk exotic destinations to expose tourists to greater levels of risk.negatively influence inbound tourism to neighbouring destinations as well (Cavlek. Political stability will be an important precondition for the prosperity of tourism. 1998). • The destination as a whole as well as the individual operators who deliver the tourism product must play a role in sustaining the safety and security of their visitors and collectively the destination. 2003). 2002. • The events of 9/11 marked a ‘turning point’ with respect to policies. 2001. This impacts on both the demand for travel but also places increased pressures on suppliers many of which operate already on low margins. Increased and cumbersome border controls. 2002). • Destinations that do not advance economically because of political constraints to growth will generate fewer outbound and domestic tourist numbers.

risk perception level and income were found to directly influence international vacation destination choice whilst touristic experience and education were indirect influences (Sonmez and Graefe. • Marketers of destinations affected by real or imagined risk factors need to target tourists with a higher tolerance for risk. realistically. 1998). as populations age. With higher levels of vulnerability the investment cost in security rises (Goodrich. Large-scale and locally centered violence will will present continuing challenges to a number of destinations and tourism sectors • Whilst the literature exposes. Enclave developments may face less daily crime but a greater risk of a major terrorist attack on an inviting target (e. and the need to protect the destination image. 2002) with diminishing returns (Elhefnawy. 1998). The perception of risk associated with destination can have dire economic consequences. On the other hand. and industry and governments are well aware of. However.g. markets. less apparent are issues such as the need for enterprise and government cyber security and biosecurity. 2003). controlling risk perception may be difficult when competing against mass media bent on sensationalizing particularly negative occurrences and tragedies (Lepp and Gibson. systems and cultures by exploring their own identities. International attitude. • Populations are responding to the globalisation of economies. To concentrate international tourists in self-contained isolated cities makes them safer most of the time but also more vulnerable to major terrorism (Cothran and Cothran. Bali bombings). as the current trends seem to indicate. 2004). there seems likely to be enormous opportunity for the development of tourism experiences related to the cultural and natural resources of these 49 . However. the likely tourist profile of the future would be one that would be less tolerable to risks and less prone to risk-taking. This is likely to lead to the increasing questioning of the form and scale of tourism development and marketing in those societies. investor and insurance drivers to decrease perceived risk. • Image based on safety may become increasingly important as the number of economies tied to tourism increases. 1998).environment. while non-enclave tourism faces a greater danger of day-to-day crime (Cothran and Cothran. the impacts of security threats on tourism lives and livelihoods.

50 . well-travelled. Such experiences would have particular appeal to tourists who are highly educated. environmentally aware and sensitive to the social and cultural traditions.subsets of society. It is these tourists who are responding to the demands of local groups to be heard. affluent. systems and mores of the destinations they visit. recognised and valued. mature.

Over recent years.2004). economic development. which in turn shifts the climatic 51 . climate change is generally described as significant changes in the long-term average weather patterns. and will continue to be. one of the most concerning and controversial environmental challenges of our time. These main environmental trends include: • • • • climate change. 3. natural resources (energy. addressed in its Global Environment Outlook (GEO) reports (UNEP 2002). water. All countries are likely to face intensified environmental problems as a result of population growth.4 Environmental trends Contemporary environmental problems will persist and in many instances grow over the next 15 years and beyond.4. there has been an increase in the awareness and better understanding of the scientific evidence that supports trends in climatic changes seen today as well as better refined modelling and scenarios that forecast likely impacts for the future. and land-use). biodiversity. Unlike the other megatrends discussed in this report which assume a 15 year time horizon.1 Climate change Climate change has become. and rapid urbanisation (Dwyer 2003.3. and other environmental trends of relevance to Australia. The major environmental megatrends addressed here are generally based on the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)’s identification of the main environmental issues and indicators of concern. Although a detailed scientific overview of climate change and greenhouse gases are beyond the scope of this report. forecast changes in environmental variables often extend to the end of this century. including ozone depletion and land salinity.

early action to invest in reducing emissions. What is unprecedented. It is important to point out that greenhouse gases and climate change are not unprecedented phenomena. states that the benefits of strong. and other weather variables such as wind and storm patterns. According to the United Nation’s International Panel for Climate Change. thus contributing to this warming trend into the future. 2005b). it is estimated that a rise of up to 22 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions are likely by the year 2020 (AGO. 52 . a great majority of climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (REFERENCE) In Australia alone. A recent independent report commissioned to assess the evidence and understanding of the economics of climate change. and will continue to be released into the atmosphere as a result of combustion of fossil-fuel based energy sources. are the rates at which these greenhouse gases are being. This level of uncertainty is what presents one of the biggest challenges to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. which drive the development and growth seen for the vast majority of economies on earth. thus creating new conditions for air temperatures as well as rates of precipitation and evaporation. titled the “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change”. since climatic variation has been part of the earth’s system throughout geological time scales. Many of these shifts are influenced by conditions created over many years and decades. thus the impacts are often not immediately apparent but rather lag over a period of time into the future. However.1. Changes are needed today to be able to mitigate and in many instances adapt to the new conditions being created today for the future. 2006). These significant changes can manifest themselves as shifts in atmospheric and ocean water temperatures. one of the major factors in the current climate change trend is the contribution from continued reliance on and consumption of fossil-fuel based energy sources.characteristic of a region over time to new conditions. as discussed in Section 3. or for future economic development. and adaptation capacity will considerably outweigh the costs incurred today (Stern. mitigation. Increasingly it is being recognised that continuing the path of growth under ‘business-asusual’ conditions is not sustainable for the environment.

food. and climate zones. which are already having trouble feeding their people. and this warming trend is likely to continue for the decades ahead (BOM 2006). Agriculture and food resources • World population is growing rapidly. the biological and physical resources of the earth are being degraded and/or exhausted. Burgeoning populations put increased pressure on the earth’s land.e.4. Energy 53 . accelerated rates of glacial melt in the polar regions. which are discussed below. For Australia. 2005 has been the hottest year since records commenced in 1910.09 degrees C on the average recorded between 1961-1990. energy. changes to ocean currents. Food. Indirect consequences include alteration of precipitation patterns such as rainfall events. A 1°C increase in mean temperatures is equivalent to many southern Australian towns shifting northward by about 100km. 3. Affected resources include agriculture and food resources. and likely to vary greatly between regions. which is currently observed as climate change.2 Natural Resources Due primarily to population growth and economic development. timber and energy resources. can have many direct and indirect environmental consequences which are transboundary i. across one or many political and geographical borders. and likelihood of increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events such as storms and drought conditions. water.The general warming trend across the globe. water. About 98 per cent of the population growth will be in developing countries. resulting in increasing pressure on finite resources such as food. Some of the direct consequences of temperature changes can include sea-level rise. land and water security will become even more critical issues. and loss of snow cover and permafrost. continents. and land use. with around 97 per cent of the continent experiencing above-average mean temperatures with an increase of 1.

Thus sharper demand-driven competition for resources. Traditional industries are increasingly efficient in their energy use but it is likely that oil prices will continue to rise. say. as in Africa and the Middle East. But new discoveries appear already to be declining.• One of the major economic issues in the world is the inevitable rise in the price of oil and the consequent impact this will have on economies. The ‘big rollover’ in production –when production starts declining –currently is forecast to occur any time between now and. • By 2020 nearly half the world's population—more than 3 billion people—will live in countries that are "water-stressed”. and northern China (NIC 2000). however there is substantial political and/or economic risk. With substantial investment in new capacity. • Traditional suppliers in the Middle East are also increasingly unstable. given the current dependence on fossil-fuel based energy sources. The impacts of this stress are expected to be stronger in the developing world—mostly in Africa. and West Africa. South Asia. overall energy supplies will be sufficient to meet global demands over the next few decades. Venezuela. such as the Caspian Sea. with adverse impacts on the costs of all industry including travel and transport. Over the next 30 years the number of countries facing water shortages will double. production has kept increasing. Conflict and even wars could result from disputes over water. are being counted on to provide for the increased projected output. is among the key uncertainties. The global economy should continue to become more energy efficient through to 2020 (NIC 2000). 2030 to 2050. This is likely to constrain tourism developments in these destinations. Pressure on water resources over the next 30 years will be concentrated in countries in arid areas. To date. 54 . perhaps accompanied by a major disruption of oil supplies. the Middle East. But one thing seems certain: extracting more oil is likely to require higher & higher prices (Carmody 2005) Water • World consumption of water is increasing at twice the rate of population growth. Many of these areas.

Land clearing destroys plants. • Conflict could occur where countries share water resources. which in turn can harm water quality (DEH 2005). as much as 66 per cent of all endemic vertebrates could be 55 . If this happens in several regions.3 Biodiversity • Species loss is increasing due to population pressure and loss of habitat. entire habitats and local ecosystems and removes the food and habitat on which other native species rely. such as within the catchment areas of the River Nile or River Jordan. Adam et al. loss of habitat is the main cause for some endemic species being lost from local areas. The drying out of rivers could also affect the environment (and tourism) in areas where swamplands and deltas have been designated areas of outstanding natural beauty (UNWTO 2002). significant degradation of arable land will continue as will the loss of tropical forests. where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. increases greenhouse gas emissions and can lead to soil degradation. such as erosion and salinity. With more than 1/6 of the earth’s population relying on glacier and seasonal snow packs for their water supply. it can end up causing extinctions (DEH 2005). Land-Use • With increasing extensive and intensive land use for agricultural purposes. • One of the main threats facing native bushland globally is broad scale clearing. • The Wet Tropics of the Far North are not expected to keep pace with rapid changes in temperature and rainfall.g.• In other parts of the world. e. • Since many native species need specific environmental conditions to survive. the consequences of these hydrological shifts are likely to be severe (Barnett. an increase in surface temperatures is expected to produce less winter precipitation as snow and the melting of winter snow would occur earlier in spring. Clearing also allows weeds and invasive animals to spread. pollution and over-hunting which in many cases includes illegal poaching of threatened species. 2005). 3.4.

• Increasing soil salinity is one of the most significant environmental problems facing countries such as Australia. The ozone layer is what protects the surface of the earth from ultraviolet radiation.5 Relevance for Tourism Tourism is closely linked to the environment. It is most commonly sourced from industrial processes. global warming may drastically amplify the capacity for ozone–destroying chemicals to linger in the stratosphere for decades (Viner and Nicholls 2005). These include ozone depletion and land salinity.4 Other environmental trends • In addition to the previously discussed environmental trends.lost in 50 to 100 years depending on the rate and timing of climate variations (AGO 2002). thus rendering the affected land as lacking the necessary conditions for agriculture and other productive land-uses. Tourist developments tend to be based near attractive or unique features of the environment enabling visitors to gain easier access to interesting natural or 56 . there are also other environmental trends which have particular relevance and concerning outcomes for Australia. While salt is naturally present in the soil. the risk of depletion will continue to be felt particularly in places such as Australia until at least the 2050s. In addition. 3. global efforts in reducing and ultimately eliminating these sources of CFCs have helped to stall any further accelerated depletion of the ozone layer. has been attributed to the release of CFCs or chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere thus accelerating the depletion of ozone in the Earth's stratosphere. more commonly referred to as the “ozone hole”. • The depletion of the ozone layer.4. refrigerants and aerosol sprays.4. During the 80s and 90s. The natural environment and climate conditions are very important in determining the viability and attractiveness of a region as a tourist destination. European farming practices associated with rising groundwater levels have caused a marked increase in salinity in Australian land and water resources (DEH 2005). which impacts on living organisms on earth including humans. 3. however.

malaria). • Damage to some ecosystems as a result of increased tourism activity. such as tundra and alpine regions. drier summers. creating capacity pressures for higher altitude ski resorts. Typically the concern of tourism stakeholders. has focussed on how tourism development may provide enhanced opportunities for the effective management of environmentally sensitive areas and the preservation of unique environments particularly when these are major sources of attractions for visitors. • More arid landscape • Mediterranean • Southern Europe. • Rise in water shortages. 57 . • Potential for substantial damage to tourist facilities and disruption of services during or following bushfires or other extreme weather events. Potential impacts on tourism activity • Improvement in summer conditions could trigger more domestic holidays. • Adverse effects on sport tourism and sports event tourism in mid summer Likely affected regions • Northern Europe • North America • Warmer. • Greater personal heat stress. • Warmer. • Vulnerability to tropical disease (e. • Increased heat index . • Detrimental effects on the ski industry . Climate change will influence which destinations will be preferred by tourists and which ones will cease to be as attractive. Environmental implications • Potential stress on ecosystems sensitive to warming. over the next 50-1000 years. • Increased incentive for outbound tourists to head to more temperate and milder summer destinations rather than holiday ‘at home’.g. including researchers. especially for lowlying resorts.more days above 40 o C. AUSTRALIA • Australian south-east coast and major capital cities. Warmer more reliable summers also provide increased incentive for those in hotter regions to travel to destinations with more favourable summer conditions. however an increase in numbers may be apparent in current shoulder environments. • Much warmer.a decline in the number of days of reliable snow cover in winter. Projected climate change • Much warmer. wetter winters. wetter winters. A summary of potential climate changes and their anticipated impacts on major Australian and international tourist destinations. • Reduced air quality in cities. Table 10 presents an example of some of the major environmental implications of climate change that will impact on tourism destinations in the future. Table 10. • More ‘reliable’ summers. • Greater risk of drought and bushfire fire hazard. drier summers. • Reduction in tourist numbers in traditional mid-summer destinations due to excessive heat.

Roughly 50 per cent of all energy consumption in hotels is attributable to air– conditioning. • Caribbean AUSTRALIA • Coastal areas of Queensland. • Southern Europe. • South East Asia • Reduction in summer tourist numbers to rural and inland destinations. • Loss of confidence in destination due to increasing health risks. development of ‘artificial’ (indoor) environments for tourism may be expected to increase.• Greater risk of storms and beach erosion. • Slight rainfall increases. almost by definition. shortages. Possibilities for substitution to other fuels. • Rural Australia. Northern Territory and northern Western Australia • Limited influence on travel patterns. drought • Greater risk of conditions in drought and hinterland and bushfire fire inland regions. • Warmer winters. rising temperatures may therefore impact on the ‘bottom line’ of operators in many areas of Australia. • Warmer summers. • Increased frequency and/or intensity of tropical storms. • Disruptions in nature-based tourism. is limited. In the face of declining stocks of oil. though decline in dive and beach markets possible. is a transport-intensive business. climatic changes Relatively little foreseen. • Risk of rise in tropical diseases. • Potential for substantial damage to tourist facilities and disruption of services during or following bushfires or other extreme weather events. (Adapted from Viner and Nicholls 2005). but general. sightseeing travel unlikely to be greatly affected. • Some coastal tropical and sub-tropical destinations may become too hot to visit in summer. As environmental changes take place. Tourism. In addition to affecting natural tourist attractions. • North American Florida coast and Gulf region. • Salinisation of aquifers. • Coral bleaching. if it comes to a 58 . • Potential for substantial damage to tourist facilities and disruption of services during or following significant weather events such as storms and flooding. • Coral bleaching. areas vulnerable to sea level rise. However an increase in numbers may be apparent in current shoulder seasons. • Little change in • No dramatic rainfall. on the basis of proven technologies. due to excessive heat. • Rise in sea level and potential infrastructure damages from tidal surges/flooding risks. • Higher heat • Rise in water index. climate change could impact on the profitability of the industry through increasing temperatures and energy use. • Rise in heat index. hazard. • Increased • Arid rural incidence of landscape. such as visits to national parks. such as wineries and alpine regions. Tourism is heavily exposed to higher oil prices. • Decreased aesthetic value of coral reefs as tourist destinations. change in • Islands and coastal temperatures. AUSTRALIA • Alpine regions of Australia. Diminishing supplies of energy will impact on fuel costs. due to coral bleaching. affecting transport costs and hence tourism flows.

and how much it will cost us. Without action. This will not be an easy transition. In particular. how quickly we must act. for economic development and commuting to work) and discretionary transport needs such as recreational tourism then tourism is likely to suffer the most. costs to economies from the growth in emissions will grow much faster than loss of benefits to tourism industry stakeholders. adapt to new environmental conditions. international aviation is not. such as the imposition of carbon taxes. the rapid growth in aviation emissions contrasts with the success of many other sectors of the economy in reducing emissions. There is increasing support for the view that the tourism industry should make a fair contribution to our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants. Bilateral air agreements between EU Member States and third countries are being changed to allow this possibility. jet fuel for international flights has historically been exempted from taxation. 59 . but this will take time to implement. Moreover. Ongoing high oil prices would be particularly bad for tourism in Australia given that it is a long haul destination. since high oil prices feed into higher inflation & interest rates any resulting economic recessions will impact adversely on the tourism industry (Carmody 2005). As nations like the US and Australia continue to resist changes that could affect their economies and developing countries assert their right to the same energy-consuming and polluting luxuries the West has long enjoyed. the controversy over environmental issues can only grow in the years to come. the question is not whether we will change our industries and lifestyles to accommodate the environment but how radically we must change current practices in conserving the environment. While emissions from domestic flights are covered by the Kyoto Protocol targets. At this point in time. Also.tug-of-war between basic transport needs (eg.

increase efficiency and enable flexible and differentiated product development. Business to business e-commerce (B2B) will grow much faster than business to consumer e-commerce (Neal 2000). behaviours and interests. In the future. Technology is by far the foremost management tool in achieving results and competitiveness in this business operating environment. They’ll want or need help from real people.3. businesses and people that manage it cleverly will do better than those who do not. They reduce duplication and enhance transparency of 60 .5 Science and Technology Trends Knowledge is increasingly recognized to be essential to competitive advantage of any organisation. The benefits of e-commerce (commerce conducted over the Internet) include: • • Easier access to new domestic and foreign markets and customers with global networks of people. businesses. Business organisations are increasingly appreciating that networking is the most important element of the ICT revolution because synergies between departments and organisations reduce labour cost. the world will encounter more quantum leaps in information and communication technology (ICT) and in other areas of science and technology. they still want to touch and smell products. speedier business transactions. the length of the value chain. Looking ahead another 15 years. Those countries. E-commerce is more likely to work on the basis of real demand. attitudes. rather than virtual people. few predicted the profound impact of the revolution in information technology. Fifteen years ago. new methods of doing business – many customers will still want a social experience. knowledge will become an even more important asset in economies and businesses. Lower costs – e-commerce will greatly reduce traditional business transactions costs. governments and other organisations crossing linguistic and geographic boundaries. The new ICT enables segments to be identified and products and services developed and marketed to publics that share characteristics.

They are theme based and self publishing on blogs. 61 . it must be used to build on ‘proven principles of effective strategy’. The trends have enhanced the growth of e. productivity and competitiveness of firms globally (Buhalis 2000). increasing collaborations between fellow online consumers. richer media like images videos.the global tourist e village. ICT is increasing the first often then to hard copy.0 boom. for the Internet rarely nullifies the most important sources of competitive advantage in any industry (Mistilis and Daniele. WEB2. Technology must complement traditional ways of competing.information.for consumers (eg blogs) as well as suppliers. ICT enables firms to reduce operational and communication costs and enhance flexible pricing thorough specials and last minute deals. New Internet technologies are agents of the consumer. ICT content convergent trends have one outcome – print to digital. They include more user generated content. websites with user generated content exploded. arguing that in the current business era. trip diaries. blogs wiki) making applications run more like desk top applications. The key strategic question is how to deploy information technology for strategic advantage. 2004). videos .0 is currently most common – the term used to describe phenomenon of convergence of societal trends (eg internet penetration) and technology (ajax. That is. ICT gives operators a better understanding of consumer needs because of research interaction and data mining. With the Web2. pod casts easier to create and share and new collaborative methods . thus allowing differentiation and customisation according to personal preferences. the internet and technology are not substitutes for sound business. Whilst the Internet provides better opportunities to develop distinctive strategic positioning. Competitive Strategy and ICT Porter (2001) analysed strategy and the Internet for organisations.tourist Communities . strategy is more important than ever before.

Destinations and operators must market and sell online with user friendly sites targeting their specific markets and fully 62 . transport and other information.0 or the ‘semantic web’ will introduce intelligence systems (AI) to the Internet which act as personal advisors – the business model now adopted by leading travel agents. groups. blogs. many Australian destinations and suppliers have not yet adopted fully the first capability stage of a fully integrated online booking system. but instead have information only sites. Thus Internet capability is advancing from simple online travel booking to advanced content and collaboration to AI. hotel. so suppliers need to understand new media and marketing opportunities (not just traditional advertising) and analyse and respond to reviews of their products and services. attraction. videos. maps. mySpace (61 million registered users) and Second Life. information quality and trust still underpin the value of these for the consumer and commentary of consumer groups needs structure – groups of unrelated stories do not in themselves constitute information. travel guides. The smartest e-destinations include photos. This will close the gap between on and offline travel services as it has the capacity to provide tailored information to the potential tourist which travel agents do now. However. user reviews and trip planners.Generation Y’s online world includes sites with video clips. blogs. It is fundamentally where this age group ‘lives’. integrated with accommodation & attractions. For example drive trip planners may have themed drives for specific interest groups– half to multi day drives. Therefore destinations and operators need to integrate these online communities and product creating excitement in order better to reach their consumers: YouTube. Unfortunately. Web3. E-communities may direct trends and ‘advertise’ for the destination /operator. Flickr. opinions. So it is questionable how influential these are for the tourist choice of product or destination. chat rooms.

63 . the visitor and the industry business environment as a whole. We herein focus on two elements of the revolution in science and technology: information and communication technology and improvements in transport technology. 3. recreation equipment. The evolution and revolution in technology will continue to influence the suppliers of the various tourism industry sectors. the natural sciences. supply.integrated reservations systems. transportation.1 Information and Communication Technology • The ' technological revolution' is allowing the most innovative tourism organizations and enterprises to redefine both their own structure and their relationships with their partner organizations. built environments and automation. • The new technologies with sophisticated database management systems provide the tools to respond to individual preferences and stimulate tourism purchases.1. In the view of many the entertainment industry is now the driving force for new technology.5.1 Science and Technology Relevance for Tourism The most pervasive technological changes that will be applied to the tourism and recreation industry are both predictable and manageable.5. replacing defence. These sites must result from and be an integral part of the organisation’s business plans. The success of tourism enterprises will continue to hinge on their efforts to add value to products and services through the use of technology producing competitive advantage. Successful tourism managers must be able to imagine. 3. perceive. medicine. and distribution. They will include advances in: communication and information technology. and gauge the effects of oncoming Science and Technology upon demand.

Destinations and tourism organisations that do not embrace the Internet and make the associated investments in information technology.g. • The facilitation of booking travel and tourism through electronic technology is leading more suppliers to seek to increase their direct sales.• ICT can give operators a better understanding of consumer needs because of research interaction and data mining. travel agents will still have a role to play but may well have to redefine that role for them to remain relevant. • New technology enables an increasing proportion of tourism organizations to achieve the dual goals of reducing operating costs and increased their ability to add value for their customers (European Commission. expert systems and computer programs will lose competitiveness. • New technologies globally compete with tourism by delivering new forms of entertainment in or near the consumer’s home. • Intelligent agent computer programs which are a combination of pre-entered information (e. thus saving time in ‘surfing’ the Internet. Opportunities exist for travel agents to become information editors and suppliers of product at the destination. Tourism/Hospitality firms must meet the challenges and opportunities offered by technological advances if they are to achieve and maintain competitive advantage. • Interactive access to product offering via the Internet gives tourists unprecedented control over how they spend their time and money. thus allowing differentiation and customisation according to personal preferences. 2002). bypassing the travel agent or other intermediary With online travel agency services such as Expedia and Travelocity becoming freely available. 64 . likes and dislikes in respect of holidays) and observed behaviours in use of online booking patterns are able to make suggestions on possible options for the user.

the industry is sometimes reluctant to adopt new methods and tools. with potential to further reduce the real costs of travel. • Future developments are for ever larger capacity aircraft and better “matching” of aircraft types according to demand. 65 . congestion. More fuel efficient aircraft will progressively reduce real costs of international travel. These are likely to be sponsored by both tour operators and destinations. Airlines will also face the challenge of reducing social and environmental costs associated with travel (pollution. • As airline and airspace capacity become increasingly limited.• CD ROMs are likely to be increasingly used as electronic brochures. high speed. While this will tend to lower the costs of travel the uncertain factor is future rises in fuel costs.5. 3. safety) Virtually all aspects of tourism and hospitality organisations in all sectors are being changed significantly by new technology.2 Transport Technology • Technological advances are also expected to continue in the field of transportation. • The gradual development of ambient technologies and 3G mobile devices providing 'the mobile Internet' will further empower visitors/consumers by providing location. high capacity passenger vessels will play an increasingly important role in tourist travel.1. and also provide faster point-to-point transport from regional airports where time slots are available. and higher efficiency particularly on long haul flights. Historically. The implication is yet cheaper air travel.and time-dependent information. offers and services. • Next generation aircraft will generate even greater economies of scale. New technology is improving the speed and reducing the real cost of travel. Despite the proliferation of new technology. saving time in the inspection of paper brochures. the tourism industry tended not to take an active role in developing or adapting new technology.

To meet visitor needs the products developed under these headings must recognize the importance of the changing characteristics of tourists as set out above. 4. disaffected national populations. new product development. or the less developed countries. In what follows we set out the implications for catering to the changing needs of tourists. 4.1 Experiences 66 . 4. alienated ethnic and religious groups.Tourism and hospitality firms must meet the challenges and opportunities offered by technological advances if they are to achieve and maintain competitive advantage. The global trends discussed above are just some of the forces that tourism stakeholders must acknowledge and understand if tourism is to develop in a sustainable way.1. destination managers and business operators. destination management and tourism enterprise management. Implications for Tourism Management to 2020 To best appreciate the implications of the above trends for tourism in 2020 it seems useful to highlight the implications for new product development and also for three major stakeholders. They call up various implications for tourism management and new areas of research. We do not know to what extent technology will benefit.tourists. or further disadvantage. the values and attitudes of the evolving tourist have implications for suppliers of tourism goods and services.1 Influences on the changing needs of tourists For all established and emerging markets. factors which are all capable of destabilising the tourism industry globally.

further growth of “time poor” – “money rich” people will entail a high demand for short time holidays. rather than a long main holiday. the adult population has more time and more money to spend on leisure pursuits and activities.3 Individuality Tourists are increasingly attempting to tailor holidays to meet their particular requirements. leading to a much higher frequency of travel each year by the most active participants. experiencing. learning about and more intimately being included in the everyday life of the destinations they visit. off-the-shelf holiday package. (Elliot and Johns 1993) 4. This trend will be fuelled by large firms who continue to take advantage of the internet and reward online bookings. An increasingly “travelled’ tourist is seeking the unusual and the authentic experience rather than the shared. This is important for tourism opportunities. Time-pressured business people will increasingly add leisure time in their business travel. The emphasis of travellers will be on multiple holiday taking. Tourists increasingly expect a broad range of activities to be available at the destination.1. and consumers are more and more looking for new and interesting experiences through an ever-broadening array of activities. 67 . Tourists will be increasingly interested in discovering. The internet provides the visitor with powerful online comparison shopping and buying tools. Greater flexibility in working hours can provide benefits to employees in terms of greater freedom to choose when to go on holiday.1. including domestic short breaks.2 The Value of Visitor Time In developed countries. 4. participating in.Overall. IT empowers consumers to seek their own information and to undertake bookings and to bundle their own packages (Buhalis 2000).

and will now be demanding tailored holidays. who have seen what package tours can offer. and to learn about and appreciate the destination at more than a superficial level. 4. skill development and cultural appreciation. They will seek out products that acknowledge this individuality.Tourists increasingly display the need to be treated as individuals and feel a positive interaction with their physical and social learn new experiences. well-being. involving perhaps exotic locations. or other forms of programmed self-improvement. Tourists are becoming more interested in self improvement as part of the tourism experience with an emphasis on health.1. there is a counter trend toward high value added and extended vacations that are purpose driven by education.1. noninteractive system of ‘mass tourism’. 4.5 Self Improvement Despite the tendency for travellers to take short breaks. 68 . as opposed to the cheapest package deal. or choices from ‘modules’ which can be combined to meet their overall requirements. they are no longer satisfied to be processed through an impersonal. a larger number of tourists would like to see themselves as `individuals' even though they are engaging in `mass practices' such as inclusive tours. (UNWTO 200x) The new tourist wants to be involved . Emphasis will increasingly be placed on ‘value for money’. Many of them will be experienced travellers. wellness. to interact with the community.4 Value for money The internet has lead to more knowledgeable consumers who seek exceptional value for money and time (Buhalis 2000). Moreover. As travelers become more experienced. People are prepared to pay good money for a quality experience and this might benefit the up-market end of the holiday market. education.

1. People are going on holiday to learn something.2 Destination Management The trends have implications for destination policy. social and environmental issues for different destinations.6 Environmental and Social concern Ethical issues will become an increasing factor for purchasers of travel and tourism products and services. as they seek newer/richer/deeper experiences. the public awareness of socio-cultural and environmental issues is likely to grow in the coming years. For increasing numbers of tourists some people. 4.1 Destination Policy. 4. reservation and booking. instead of being a form of consumption. destination marketing management. is becoming an investment – investment in themselves.2. 4. Only a brief discussion is possible herein. a holiday. Consumers are becoming more aware of political. Development 69 .7 ICT Most tourist market segments will increasingly demand full access to and availability of ICT as their preferred medium of information. Consequently.As more and more material needs are satisfied for more and more people.1. consumers require something more. including whilst mobile through their hand held device. With increasing media attention. risk management and tourism education. planning and development. 4. the barrier between leisure and education will blur to such an extent that it will virtually disappear. Savvy operators and destinations should strive to meet this demand or risk losing competitive advantage and market share. destination management organisation. Planning.

● A sustainability focus requires destination managers to foster a ‘spaceship culture’ within the industry rather than a ‘cowboy culture’. and environmental benefits. historically tourism has been a spectacular failure in keeping supply in line with demand.● The tourism host community is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Developing tools for measuring these aspects will be important to developer and firm vulnerability. and invest in better quality rather than in additional capacity. providing environmental and social benefits. ● There is increasing recognition that community interest and tourism must work together for any chance of long term success (UNWTO 2002). etc). This would be good for the destination economy as well as firm’s bottom lines (Carmody 2005). water. pollution. However as Carmody (2005) has argued. The former involves awareness of the 70 . increasing the ratio of economic returns to resources used. social and environmental dimensions. ● Related to the above point is that tourism industry should attempt to consolidate. defined narrowly as an economic measure or more broadly as incorporating economic. rather than a growth focus. ● Developers are increasingly being required to demonstrate a range of economic. Higher economic yields would increase value-added per capita from tourism business activity. ● A sustainable yield focus. Higher economic yields and less growth would put less pressure on carrying capacity (eg. The industry must become more disciplined on capacity or be even more prone to business failure. demanding and skeptical in respect of leisure development. social. could be a winning strategy for Australian tourism. ● Destinations will increasingly measure leisure and tourism success not by number of visitors but by ‘yield’ per visitor. Researchers have attempted to quantify the notion of ‘sustainable yield’ which incorporates these three dimensions (Dwyer et al 2005).

Reports in the media are likely to lead to increased scrutiny on the part of the public in destination decision making. the rapid growth in aviation emissions contrasts with the success of many other sectors of the economy in reducing emissions. as opposed to adoption of a growth ethic unconcerned with long term sustainability. ● Destinations are also increasingly including environmental enhancement and heritage conservation in tourism development programs. ● Destination managers who are serious about developing tourism in a sustainable way will agree that the tourism industry should make a fair contribution to our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants. ● Destinations are encouraging tourism development programs that include benefits for and utilization by community residents. ● The desire for greater community control is associated with a trend towards integrated management of tourism across government and industry. destinations acknowledge and orientate their policy development and marketing process and strategies towards the principles of sustainable tourism development. Tourism stakeholders need to be aware that industry balance is an important consideration in government policy making. including small business opportunities as well as jobs. The destination vision should reflects resident and tourism industry stakeholder values. such as the imposition of carbon taxes. ● Tourism development is increasingly being integrated into overall industrial development. costs to economies from the growth in emissions will grow much faster than loss of benefits to tourism industry stakeholders. ● Globally. In particular. environmental and social goals which are net beneficial.importance of developing a tourism that delivers economic. This requires the development of formal long term ‘Visions’ for tourism industry development. Without action. For new tourism development the requirement to be sustainable will be more than ever decisive. The benefits to the economy from timely action by the 71 .

and should 72 . Trade-offs are inevitable.2 Destination Management Organisation • National Tourism Organisations (NTO’s) will need to expand their roles as coordinating bodies for private and public sector tourism organizations. 4. We may experience a similar ‘crowding out’ of tourism. mitigation. Destination policy. together with the relative price effects of industrialisation on manufactured product prices relative to service industry prices. and enhanced environments may well come at the expense of higher priced tourism transportation and accommodation with consequent impacts on visitor numbers.tourism industry to invest in reducing emissions.2. planning and development must be carefully created and balanced so that the tourists are comfortable with the level of both their security and their privacy. both in Australia and globally. the price and exchange rate effects of this increased demand ‘crowded out’ other industries within Australia as capital and labour were re-directed towards the resources sector. and adaptation capacity will far outweigh the costs involved. Less competitive and more labour-intensive industries experienced weaker growth as a result of this ‘crowding out’ process. when strong demand for Australia’s resource and energy endowments produced a very strong $A. as a result of Chinese (and Indian) industrialization with the associated strong demand for energy that accompanys that process. ● There will be a growing impact of consumer-led campaigns for sustainable tourism development and for trade in tourism to be “fair” in its distribution of the rewards of tourism to destinations. ● Tourists’ perception of safety and security in the destination will continue to constitute an important competitive advantage. ● In the 1970s. especially transportintensive service industries (Carmody 2005). particularly in the developing country destinations which provide the services for tourism. however.

2.attempt to more effectively represent the views of all tourism stakeholders in tourism development. An important aim of destination marketing should thus be to increase volume. in the attempt to create a stronger collective tourism product that will increase arrivals and enhance tourism growth (PATA 1999). planning and development and providing statistical information as input to tourism policy.3 Destination Marketing Management Timely research into tourist markets will continue to be important for firms to gain a competitive edge. ● Today’s tourists are well travelled. Excitement and Education (UNWTO 2002). ● Australia is too dependant on a few large markets and segments and we need to lessen our dependence on these volatile markets and segments. • NTO will also need to place greater emphasis in liaising effectively with private sector organizations in tourism policy. Broadly oriented to one or a combination of three E-words: Entertainment. length of stay and spend as well as its dispersion. planning and development. ● Product and marketing development will be increasingly targeted and increasingly theme-based. • There will be more joint promotions and alliances between NTOs and the private sector. Understanding shifts in tastes is the prerequisite to designing effective marketing communication. ● NTOs need to manage knowledge effectively to reach their customers. 73 . 4. sophisticated and demand quality and value.

● Destinations must market and sell online with user friendly sites targeting their specific markets and fully integrated reservations systems.● Future marketing efforts must emphasize the diverse and individualized attractions of the destination as providing a valued set of experiences. ● However destination managers must still aim to deploy ICT for strategic advantage only as the internet and new technologies are not substitutes for sound business. They should also work to increase the productivity and competitive advantage that will accrue to those in the industry that use new information technology to improve their plans. ● Destination Managers should provide quality and timely information that encourages the successful deployment and application of new technology throughout the industry. decisions. However this will need to done collectively as a region or area. 74 . ● E-communities may direct trends and ‘advertise’ for the destination. ● There are opportunities for developing regional destinations to attract meeting and incentive business either as an add-on or actual meeting location through the promotion of ‘off-the-beaten-track’ and unique locations. targeting their specific markets. operators need to collaborate on the ‘Fit’ between destination products and visitor preferences. and the provision of high-quality services and cost-effective options to meet the specific needs of this market. ● To ensure consistency in the marketing message. and processes. so it should understand new media and marketing opportunities (not just traditional advertising) and analyse and respond to reviews of their products and services. ● The smartest e-destinations will also adopt richer media in their websites.

so suppliers need to understand new media and marketing opportunities (not just traditional advertising) and analyse and respond to reviews of their products and services.2.4 Risk management ● Communicating a destinations risk strategies will be important to maintaining visitor attractiveness. ● Governments and tourism operators need to characterise their vulnerabilities to specific environmental management concerns. sustainable yield’ can be used as catchcry for industry and as an element in the marketing mix for Australia as a tourism destination. These sites must result from and be an integral part of the organisation’s business plans. ● Peace. Involvement of all major groups of stakeholders would ensure would help to ensure the development of appropriate strategies to achieve this. 75 . such as climate change. ● ‘Sustainability’ and in particular. opportunities exist to design effective adaptation strategies and aim to maintain a level of viability into the future. Governments and tourism operators need to address the specific concerns relating to tourist safety and security. ● Destinations and operators must market and sell online with user friendly sites targeting their specific markets and fully integrated reservations systems. Australia may become a net loser from climate change as both tropical and inland attractions are affected by global warming and drought. 4. security. Otherwise. and political stability are fundamental requirements for tourism development success at the destination level. in their region of operation.● E-communities may direct trends and ‘advertise’ for the destination /operator. safety. By incorporating climate change as a potential impact within risk management systems.

Disaster management strategies will need to continue to be developed at both the local and the destination level (Faulkner. ● The globalizing economy and technological change inevitably place an increasing premium on a more highly skilled labour force. including tourism seek to take advantage of an aging population. ● Enclave tourism strategies need to be re-examined in the context of world terrorism and trends in security and risk management strategies that arise from this new terrorism environment. education in volunteering will become increasingly important as different sectors. This growth in tourism is bringing with it the unprecedented risk of infectious disease and other health-related crises and destinations must develop coping strategies for such contingencies.2. Mistilis and Sheldon (2006).● In addition to the terrorist concern.5 Education for Tourism Management Education and training can foster a more innovative tourism workforce that is mindful of product differentiation rather than product homogenisation. ● Destinations should provide community education and training programs that support the tourism industry. the steady increase in international travel is a driving force in the global emergence and spread of infectious diseases (Perz et al.. ● Training will be required that provides people with the skills to work in different cultural environments and integrated workplaces. 76 . 2001. ● There needs to be an emphasis on Human Resource Development by all tourism destinations aiming to achieve competitive advantage. 4. 2001). In particular.

planning and policy. tools. technologies. to improve the competitiveness and sustainability of both tourism enterprises and the destination as a whole. Members of the generation now entering the labour 77 .making tools that can aid ‘best practice’ management in different tourism and hospitality sectors. accreditation schemes etc. must have the adaptive capabilities to apply their knowledge in contexts of change. and takes advantage of. ● There are some researchers who argue for a change of ‘paradigm’ from a traditional perspective to one based upon a recognition of the ‘chaos’ in which much of the industry development is taking place. planning. It requires instructors to enhance students’ problem solving ability by emphasising the role of theory in helping to solve real world problems in dynamic contexts. In contexts of continuous change. leadership role in an industry that is undergoing rapid changes on both the demand and supply sides. ● The new breed of mangers emerging in the tourism and hospitality industries must have the knowledge content. ● Education for future tourism managers requires the development of management and planning frameworks for ensuring that the industry adapts to. models. life long learning will become essential. ● Since technology and communications are continually changing the way we live. however. changing global conditions. it is important that students be instructed in decision. It also requires the students’ understanding of systems. policy subjects needs to reflect awareness of these longer term trends. Tourism/Hospitality education must prepare students to play a proactive. The principles and practices of Sustainable Tourism should be placed firmly into course curricula. but. It is this type of knowledge that can provide a knowledge-based platform for innovation in tourism management. It is the students’ problem solving ability that will help them as future managers to achieve competitive advantage for their organisations in industries experiencing continued rapid change and educational curricula must recognise this.● The content of tourism/hospitality marketing. more importantly.

force can expect to have several entirely separate careers before their working days are over. (Cetron 2001:24). At each new turning, our old skills become obsolete and we are forced to learn anew. In the high tech industries this is already a fact of life: we work at one job while preparing for the next, which may be wholly unrelated to our previous experience. ● Despite the increasing awareness in the industry of the importance of skilled personnel to deliver quality services to customers, only a small proportion of tourism businesses invest in tourism education and training for employees.


Enterprise Management

Space limitations preclude any detailed analysis herein. The global trends have particular implications for marketing by tourism operators. Some implications are as follows:

4.3.1 Management Capabilities of Tourism Firms and Organizations
Enterprises will need to be proactive in knowledge creation, product development and knowledge sharing to grow overall destination competitiveness. ● Knowledge management has to be embedded and embodied in the organisation in order to be able to anticipate change, take informed action and develop new products, services and marketing approaches. ● In today’s intensely competitive environment sound financial management has become increasingly important. Across all sectors of tourism, managers must become more aware of the challenges posed by increasing competition for the tourist dollar. This challenge is particularly evident in aviation where full service airlines are responding to the challenge of low cost carriers. Strategies include: cost cutting, fleet upgrades, differentiation, alliance development, Loyalty programs, Express/Shuttle Services


4.3.2 Marketing
● The big challenge in marketing will be to deal effectively with the ever increasing and diversifying array of desires, interests and tastes on one hand, and the tourism products offered in response, on the other hand. The implication for tourism of this is that there are more different types of households or household segments for the travel and tourism industry to cater for. Apart from singles, we now have single parents with child (or children) with their own particular requirements from travel and tourism service suppliers. ● Increasingly travel and tourism will be a buyer’s market. Tourism operators must inevitably shift from the promotion of the functional benefits of their products and services to the emotional benefits: reverie/escape, status-enhancement, stress-alleviation, reward and social-skill confirmation. ● The use of electronic technology will enable the more ready and accurate identification of market segments and niches and to communicate with them more effectively. This facilitates micro marketing. ● Operators need to be proactive in approaching companies that are developing, expanding, or franchising new entertainment or tourism products that fit with their market segments. Operators need to develop special interest marketing strategies for consumers who can travel in the off season and are less sensitive to weather conditions. ● New Internet technologies are agents of the consumer, greatly enhancing their power in the marketplace, so the suppliers need to analyse consumer preferences and respond in their product development – within their business plan framework. ● Tourism operators must market and sell the destination and experience available in multi-channel environments. An online presence is essential with user friendly sites targeting their specific markets and fully integrated reservations systems.


Through the generation of relevant and exciting content firms can take advantage of

online engaged communities such as YouTube, Flickr, mySpace and Second Life. • For firms to reach the ‘professional woman’ market segment they will need to tailor a

more personalised content that reinforces core values of the brand, engages with women users for their recommendations and feedback and monitors and re-evaluates their content based on customer activity and feedback • Tourism marketers who wish to capture Gen Y's attention will do so by bringing their

messages to the places they congregate, whether it's the Internet, a snowboarding tournament, or cable TV. A well designed website is crucial to capturing their attention. Advertisements will need to be funny or disarmingly direct. What tourism marketers shouldn’t do is suggest that the advertiser knows Gen Y better than they know themselves.

4.3.3 Sustainability
● It is increasingly recognised today that the ‘green’ business can increase profits and that this equates to ‘good’ business. It will be imperative for firms to take a Triple Bottom Line (TBL) approach to sustainable development to ensure firms integrate social, environmental and economic information into managerial decision making. Firms must aim to achieve sustainability in their operations. ● Tourism businesses have a vested interest in protecting the (natural, social, cultural) environment that draws tourists, but many lack the long term vision to adopt environmentally appropriate management strategies. Operators and organizations should adopt the philosophy of TBL reporting (Dwyer 2005), and attempt to maximise ‘sustainable yield’ (Dwyer et al 2006). The findings reveal that, simultaneous achievement of relatively high economic and environmental goals is not always possible, and that economic-environmental trade-offs may be necessary (Lundie, Dwyer and


● Operators can apply multimedia technology to improve the interpretation of tourism 81 . e-commerce and use of IT to achieve competitive advantage. 4. ● Operators need to be proactive in orchestrating technology to their benefit rather than following the lead of others.4 Information Technology ● Future industry leaders need to have a sound knowledge of computer information systems. They should attempt to develop working relationships with key technology providers and developers so they become knowledgeable about the needs and opportunities within the tourism industry. The results have implications for all destinations which use notions of ‘tourism yield’ to inform their marketing strategies.Forsyth 2007). particular. ● Firms need to identify changes in technology that will affect the growth. quality. Smaller players can benefit from technology Tourism providers need to form partnerships with internet providers and online intermediaries (Yeoman 2005) ● Travel agents will still have a role to play but will have to redefine that role for them to remain relevant. Travel agents will need to re-examine and redefine their roles for them to remain relevant. ● The internet makes it possible for small businesses throughout the world to connect directly to consumers and to compete for market share on an even footing with market leaders (Willmott and Graham 2001. and marketing of tourism. monitor the extent to which new telework and video communication technologies affect routine forms of business and personal travel. In. 30).3.

● Another trend involves the rise of the financial sponsor. support education programs on the use and potential of database marketing to special interest groups and geographic markets. Tourism providers will more easily and more often form strategic partnerships.3. use database marketing to reach travel intermediaries on a regular basis and develop relationships with individual customers. 4.attractions and the presentation of handicrafts and cultural programs ● Given the new technology. Public and private sector partnerships as well as mechanisms such as joint venture promotion to limit political risk in developing countries will be further developed as the tourism industry attempts to attract additional private sector capital. identify those special interest groups most likely to be attracted to the goods and services provided by the tourism industry. Firms that are not cognizant of ‘coopetition’ and strategic alliances will be at a competitive disadvantage. be it under the guise of private equity or hybrid investment banks. and identify tour operators to help them communicate their message via database marketing and information technology. Qantas). This trend is already affecting tourism industry structure.5 Networks/Alliances The process of concentration of power within the sub-sectors that make up the travel and tourism sector is continuing apace. offering complementary products. Acquisition buy outs can be 82 . ● Associated with the increasing competitiveness of the industry is a realisation of the benefits of forming strategic alliances for such purposes as destination marketing and product development. Cashed up funds are looking for investment in under geared balance sheets. the firms that will do best in accessing special interest markets are those that: • • • • • • conduct a market research program that determines product needs and market potential of specialty markets. acquire (or develop) databases of travel intermediaries and distribution systems for key specialty markets and distribute these databases to the industry. especially in firms with good brand names (eg.

good or bad for tourism. business managers are looking beyond their enterprises and think and act in terms of ‘value-chains’ – from primary producers to final consumers. ● Airlines are currently experiencing a period of rationalization and the future industry structure will involve fewer large players and a number of niche operators. database marketing and more alliances with the smaller airlines of Asia. currency. Some may herald more focussed management and better business returns and expansion because they are there for long term. luggage and other travel goods. The danger is that as the firm is no longer listed as a public company.g. Value chain management is increasingly associated with the development of clusters and other cooperative arrangements. many travel and tourism companies are utilizing a diagonal integration strategy. Tourism companies should try to lessen the chances of these buyouts. Increasingly. Others may cause concern as investment is short term with view to a quick windfall sale. The global power of the airline alliances will continue to manifest itself through code-sharing. insurance. joint purchasing.3. The accommodation sub-sector is following the same trend with the consolidation of hotel groups. In addition to horizontal and vertical integration. Privatisation of both airports and airlines will continue. e. 4. quality control.6 Risk Management 83 . It is likely that tourism enterprises all along the value chain that implement best management will achieve better: economies of scale. there is less scrutiny. market intelligence and market feedback. Networks or alliances of people along value chains may be expected to increase business efficiencies and improve communication up and down the chains. whereby they establish operations to offer products and services which tourists commonly purchase but which are not directly part of the tourism product. and cooperation along the value chain. This trend for firms to grow larger as they attempt to access more of the value chain has implications for the structure of the tourism industry and the future of smaller players ● There is likely to be an increasing focus on best practice through the value chain.

so they are prepared for any incident and can respond swiftly. special interest. and authentic experiences. reversing somewhat the trend to independent travel (Wilmott and Graham 2001:35). time poor-money rich customers provide travel service providers with the opportunity to offer seamless. full service FIT travel. full service package travel. confidently and appropriately – thus minimising business loss. The greater pressure on “time” and rising “stress” levels leads to growing emphasis on the means of “escape” 84 . and increase customer loyalty. but also one that is more able and adventurous • Tour operators will need to structure their itineraries around optional programs and increasing schedule flexibility. • On the other hand.● A major challenge for tourism firms is to implement risk management strategies. Some important considerations can be highlighted: • Operators should attempt to become ‘experience providers’ developing personal encounters.4 Development of Products and Services The main challenge for the tourism industry is to develop products and services that meet the changing needs of the consumer. stress free packages. designed to create long lasting memories. engaging travel. including staff education and training. The impact of changing demographics. economic conditions and tastes suggest that the tourism will fall into a number of major segments. These should be part of their business management plans and driven by the highest level of management. This strategy can attract new customers as well as generate repeat visits. and business. 4. • The tourism industry will need to serve not only a more demanding and knowledgeable consumer. The world trends will affect each market differently.

the demand for ‘weekend getaways’ will grow rapidly. shorter vacations spread throughout the year will continue to replace the traditional two week vacation due to time constraints and job insecurities. as are cruise holidays where the consumer experiences a large number of destinations and attractions in a short period of time. unburdened relaxation and release from job pressures. Thus demand rather than supply driven products indicate that proactive responses are required. Multiple. including activity centres (such as Centerparcs) are increasing in popularity. • Product development will also need to respond to an environment of greater individual choice.through holidays. The evolving tourist is less loyal and more demanding. Theme parks. Products will 85 . In the developed countries. The emphasis of travellers will be on multiple holiday taking. Tourism operators must develop information response systems and transportation links that save customers time • Opportunities exist for suppliers to promote and develop products that offer the traveller the maximum thrills in the minimum time. rather than a long main holiday. industry must respond to changing markets or lose competitive advantage. leading to a much higher frequency of travel each year by the most active participants. • Operators must increasingly consider how tourism products and marketing systems interact with the time value needs of their customers. • As products are now consumer driven. All-inclusive holidays will be demanded by a large number of people with needs for complete. more interactivity and more personalized products from which to choose. savvy and experienced. • Operators should increase the availability of short break packages targeted to regional markets and provide convenient packages that link overnight city stays with excursions to special interest attractions. including domestic short breaks. Consumers will increasingly demand more choice.

health and wellness programs. Mistilis & D'Ambra 2005). with strong appeal across all key markets. quality facilities and services. incentives. Tourists need to be assured that concern for their safety is paramount and that all appropriate measures are being taken in this respect. • Health and wellness. history. 2003. new leisure products cannot be overly reliant on environmentally and culturally sensitive environments because of undesirable impacts and carrying capacity constraints. (Buhalis. archeology. sports training programs.increasingly continue to be consumer rather than product driven. making it imperative for enterprises to be quick in response to consumer demands. Since tourist behaviour is as constrained by perceived risk as it is by actual risk operators need to address perceptions of risks as well as the risks themselves. • Due to increasing environmental and social concern by tourists. 86 .. • Business Tourism comprising corporate meetings. safety and creative experiences will be attractive in the business market. etc. conventions and exhibitions is expected to provide increased opportunities for the Australian tourism industry over the next ten years. Operators will need to recognise the value of self-improvement programs to attract visitors and enhance visitor experiences (e. Products that focus on ease of accessibility to the destination. literature.g. The development of products that cater for the growing demand for ‘doing’ or activity based holidays’ such as sport and hobbies will be competitive in the market place. food and beverages that meet visitor dietary considerations needs.). and ecology programs. Operators should provide high quality interpretation of environmental and cultural/ethnic attractions. short course culture. • Marketing. sound infrastructure that supports the product.

and the ‘basics’ of life. getting away from a stressful and fast-paced city environment to the peace and tranquility of the bush. nostalgia of the origins. wholesome food and exercise. Rural tourism is closely related to the traditional and romantic idea of ‘the good old days’ pure and simple lifestyle. The Seniors Market 87 . the need for recuperation of the lost link with nature. There is a growing recognition by most countries of the economic vulnerability of the rural sector due to its single industry base. congested. highly organised.4. in an increasingly complex. enjoying the friendly warmth and hospitality of country people. This creates an ongoing incentive for destination managers to oversee the development of additional sources of income and jobs in rural areas. anonymous. with fresh air. stressful urban and ‘inhuman’ (Krippendorf 1987) surrounding constitutes the principal attraction of rural areas. which take part in country areas.1 Emerging Special Interest Markets Several emerging special interest markets may be identified: These include those identified by the UNWTO (2002) ● Rural Tourism ● Seniors Tourism ● Nature Based Tourism ● Cultural and Heritage Tourism ● Health and Wellness Tourism ● Cruise Tourism ● Space Tourism ● MICE ● Religious Tourism ● Event Tourism ● Urban Tourism ● Adventure Tourism (?) Rural tourism Rural tourism involves those people and associated tourist activities. Thus.4. experiencing what is perceived as a ‘healthy’ lifestyle.

The increasing dominance of technology in our daily lives also promotes this trend. and the demand for them increases. It will also have a notable impact on the type of holidays taken and destinations chosen. Interest in sea cruising (Smith & Jenner. and they have more disposable income to spend on them. As the world’s supply of pristine natural environments dwindles however. wilderness areas. appreciation and learning. 88 . Rainforests. The direct consequence of this ageing pattern will be that seniors will be responsible for a bigger share of all holiday spending. Coupled with better health they will demand products and services that cater to their aging needs. Nature Based Tourism “Nature-Based” will continue to be one of the fastest growing areas of the tourism industry. the numbers of older persons in industrialised countries will constitute a higher percentage of the total population in such countries. Many destinations are developing ‘ecotourism’ (responsible travel that conserves natural environments and sustains the well-being of local people’ (Ecotourism Society)) to satisfy a growing demand for nature based tourism and also to help preserve the stock of ‘natural capital’ so important to a sustainable tourism industry. the ocean and other unpolluted regions provide a unique and necessary chance to escape from stressful work environments. 1997) and nomad travel (car/campervan) will continue to attract this market. Mature travellers are also reported to be more interested in cultural and heritage tourism and self education (Loverseed 1998).Declining population growth rates in the industrialised countries have two important implications for tourism: first. the population of developing countries will comprise a growing proportion of the world total. second. There are opportunities to develop product and services that support this type of travel. and. their price will increase compared to mass tourism experiences. Ecotourism trips can cover a wide range of features with different levels of intensity of involvement with the nature component provides the opportunity for it to be a tool for preservation conservation. Many older people want to enjoy the same activities and entertainment that they enjoyed in their youth.

Health and Wellness Tourism Increasing stress in peoples’ lives will generate more demand for (comfortable) reclusive and escapist products in natural and peaceful environments. education and training). culture/heritage. There is increased interest in alternative medicine and activities such as yoga and meditation. Artificial Environments Developers are using new technology to create artificial environments close to origin markets. ethnic culture and pristine nature. academic perspective. Destinations and enterprises will need to better manage their natural and cultural attractions in order to conserve these resources for environmentally conscious markets and as draw cards for all types of visitation. once purely Cultural and Heritage Tourism Cultural tourism has many forms and levels of intensity.Potential will only be realized if natural resources are managed appropriately. seeking for better balance between humans and nature (Pollock and Williams 2000). People will combine treatments and travel. Health and Wellness tourism is destined to become a huge niche markets by 2020. Destinations and products will seek to become both weather independent (through artificial environments) and attractive to markets that are less weather dependent (conventions. Tourists seeking ‘authenticity’ in their experiences. are moving into the realm of physical mental and even spiritual rejuvenation. Small volumes are motivated by an educational. while at the other end of the spectrum large volumes of resort or general interest tourists want a cultural component such as a day trip to a Roman or Hellenic site. specialty markets -. Holidays. 89 . will provide additional pressure for the preservation of historic (heritage) monuments.

Space Tourism Whilst it is generally accepted that the advent of space tourism is just around the corner. the challenge to operators is to offer a product that will be affordable to the mass market. low frill health tourism. nature-based. Constant development of new cruise areas. These are the markets most attracted to the cruise experience. and bookings can already be made with a number of them. The growth in the over 45 age group – baby boomers to double-income-no-kids (DINKS) to comfortable retirees.All-inclusive resort holidays can appeal to those who wish release from their job pressures with complete relaxation without the need to make any decision or engage in exacting activity. there are a number of companies advertising the future of space travel. Incentives. Conventions and Exhibitions. MICE Tourism One of the world’s fastest growing tourism markets is that of Meetings. The Business Tourism sector comprising corporate 90 . (UNWTO:37). the cruise industry has opportunities to meet this need through the development of ocean going hospital/health resorts. Factors likely to influence this strong growth in the future include: rapid expansion of the product base in terms of new ships and their carrying capacity. Also. These can include promoting core health themes for body. Whilst it is not currently possible to offer scheduled fare paying passenger services into space. There are substantial opportunities for operators to develop health tourism products and services. mind and soul programs for different niche markets. work with health care professionals (Pollock and Williams 2000) Cruising The cruise sector is expected to grow strongly well into the next decade. The use of space stations for hotels is something that is likely to develop later. but could still feasibly be built within the next 20 years. indigenous and environment-friendly products.

Urban Tourism We are increasingly seeing the emergence of secondary cities. Church tourism. 'Green' tourism will affect MICE also. all seeking to access the tourist dollar.The growth in the MICE sector will create stronger competition. conventions and exhibitions is generally regarded as one of the highest yielding inbound tourism segments because of the high per-delegate spend. Professional Conference Organising etc. catering. worldwide. There are four main types: Pilgrimages. Increasingly airline and 91 . usually as an initial stopping off point en route to somewhere else. tour operations. So far. In particular there is a growing movement of clients in Europe to compare the suppliers' consideration of environmental issues in their choice of venue and management of MICE. food and beverage. incentives. there is a desire for more authentic experiences such as immersing oneself in spiritual and cultural traditions (McKelvie 2005). Religious Tourism Religious tourism involves ‘travelling to visit a place.meetings. Increasingly. there is competition among destinations for such business and. Destinations will need to differentiate themselves on factors other than price. most of the world's tourists have originated in the major cities and headed for the major cities. Religious tourism per se (visiting a site because it is sacred). There are substantial opportunities for operators to associate themselves with MICE tourism by way of suppliers of accommodation. In other words MICE organizers and venues need to address and apply environmental sustainability in their management policies and practices. However. Worldwide. Religious tourism is growing strongly worldwide. both as origin of travellers and destinations. this trend is expected to continue.1). with substantial government support for marketing activity and infrastructure development. building or shrine deemed sacred or holy’ (p. there are hundreds of state and provincial capitals with sizeable populations. Travelling to a religious event.

spectacle and pleasure to be produced. Urban destinations will increasingly undertake regeneration strategies in order for leisure. As these cities emerge from the backwaters. competitive airfares and increasing cost of education. However. provide forums for continuing education and training and facilitate technology transfer. enjoyment. 92 . packaged. marketed and consumed. increasing airline and transportation links will help them become inbound/outbound markets in their own right. Special events can also result in associated social and cultural benefits to a destination. Successful urban destinations will be those that can appropriate functions differentiated by the asset base in which it exists. frequently precincts exhibit replication and sameness such that it is difficult in the eyes of the visitor to differentiate one urban precinct space from another. Gap Travel Gap travel is being facilitated by more positive attitudes to a gap year. Event Tourism Destinations worldwide are developing special events. Forsyth and Spurr 2005). Ideally these features should come together in a way that marks each urban destination as unique. foster business contacts. they can enhance the exchange of ideas.transportation links will improve access to secondary cities who will also seek to participate in tourism (PATA 1999). for example. and can be associated with negative social and environmental effects there is little doubt that event tourism will continue to develop as a major tourism sector in the coming years. While some regard the economic impacts of events to be often exaggerated due to use of Input-out modelling with its high multipliers (Dwyer. Special events have the capacity to create income and jobs in the short term and generate increased visitation and related investment in the longer term.

and want to broaden their perspectives on the opportunities available in the next stages of their life. cooking and teaching English as a foreign language. outdoor. learning languages. Major activities undertaken during gap include work placement (counsellors. volunteering. • ‘Career gappers’ people who take time out between career moves 25 – 35 age group and • ‘Pre-retirement gappers’ 55-70 year olds who have ended their formal careers. These activities present opportunities for add on travel products and services. and environmental projects). 93 . teaching placements. boarding schools.Opportunities exist for three broad market segments: • ‘Pre-university gappers’ are the most common and are students who take time out after competing secondary school and before commencing tertiary education.

nor those forces that have a more local focus. They also have implications for destination management and for the management of tourism organisations. not ‘what will the future be’. social. Conclusions Tourism can’t control the big forces driving tourism demand globally. This requires tourism stakeholders to ask. The types of changes taking place in the global industry present both challenges and opportunities to public and private sector organisations around the world to ‘construct the future’ to the greatest extent possible as they seek to achieve a sustainable tourism industry. and failure to achieve competitive advantages over rivals. 94 . The trends were discussed as they affect new product development. The forces taking place globally have implications for the type of tourist of the future. from. cultural. and three important stakeholders . destination managers and tourism operators.tourists. Failure to understand these forces can result in strategic drift for all tourism organisations and entire destinations. As Ellyard has argued. the likely effects of these trends on tourism flows to. The tourism industry must control what it can and adapt to what it cannot. the opportunity to fashion the future to their needs rather than simply to regard future events as beyond control. but rather ‘what should the future be’? The tourism industry is expected to develop. They also have implications for new product development. political.5. This report has identified in particular. both on the supply side and the demand side. and within Australia. consistently with wider economic. to some extent. tourism stakeholders can strategically act as ‘future makers’ rather than ‘future takers’ (Ellyard 2006). technological and environmental trends affecting all countries. But tourism stakeholders have. The previous chapter also developed an action agenda that tourism decision makers in both the private and public sectors in Australia can undertake as part of a pro-active strategy to achieve competitive advantage internationally over the next 15 years.

Oxford. TRACKING TO THE KYOTO TARGET 2005 . (2005). Population and Development Review. 'The tourism marketplace: new challenges'. P. in A Lockwood & S Medlik (eds). Tourism and hospitality in the 21st century. and D. AGO (2002)." Tourism & Hospitality Research 3(1): 37-60. Doell. D. (2003) A Tale of Two Borders: the U. Anonymous (2005) The US National Intelligence Council on the Changing Geopolitical Landscape. Commonwealth Government of Australia. "Characterizing regional economic impacts and responses to climate change. AGO (2005a). P.S. Australian Greenhouse Office. Australia: Anglicare Australia. M. Destination Marketing. 240-245. Commonwealth Government of Australia. D. Viner (2001). BBC News London. (2003).. Anglicare Australia. Are Latest 'Megatrends' Roadmap for New Products. London: Mintel. Alford. Australian Greenhouse Office. Living with Climate Change: An Overview of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Australia.. Amos. (2000). J. Problem centred Vs Mission centred behaviour References Abler.-Canada Lines After 9-11. 31.S. "Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future "business-as-usual" conditions. Antarctic glaciers show retreat.S. Butterworth-Heinmeman. et al. Andreas.A major challenge for Tourism/Hospitality education and training is to convey to students and hence the future leaders of the tourism industry. Anonymous. Australian Greenhouse Office. Commonwealth of Australia. AGO (2005b). J. Climate Change Risks and Vulnerability . pp.-Mexico and U. Shortle. Center for U. P. Candy Industry. D (2001). State of the Family 2005. "Potential impacts of climate change on international tourism. et al. Department of the Environment and Heritage.-Mexican Studies.Australia’s Greenhouse Emissions Trends 1990 to 2008-2012 and 2020. 170. Canberra. (2005). 14-15. the nature of these ‘environmental influences’ and their implications for sustainable tourism development. 190-196." Hydrological Sciences-Journal-des Sciences Hydrologiques 48(3): 339-348." Global and Planetary Change 25(1-2): 67-81. 95 . (2005). Affolter. J. Agnew.Promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia. (2005). Alcamo.

5th World Conference on Sport and Environment (IOC/UNEP). T. Ten mega-trends that will revolutionize supply chain logistics. London. (2005). Greenhouse gas 'to rise by 52%'. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.. Journal of Business Logistics. 33. Bowersox. (2002). v. P. Blakely. Buerki. Browne. B. T. 2. S. 117-131. 423-438. (1997). J.. pp. "Linkages between climate change and sustainable development. B. (2004). Bourgeade. Sydney's Destiny. Climate change and winter sports: environmental and economic threats. Medicine et maladies infectieuses. (2003). pp. "Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. J (2005). ATS Group Pty Ltd. Australian Social Trends 2005. S & Hamilton. 76-79. Bergsma. J. Arnell. J. C. Australian Planner. 77-86. C. (2005). (2005b)." Climate Policy 2(2-3): 129-144. M (2000). (2000). D." Retrieved 7 August 2005. Tourism and Hospitality Research. BOM (2006). (2005) Getting carded: Border Control and the Politics of Canada's Permanent Resident Card. 96 . Amsterdam. W. BBC News. J.. et al. Beg. Morlot. BBC (2005). Tourism and transport: issues and agenda for the new millennium. Amsterdam. (2005). Emerging Trends in the Tourism Sector and their Impact on Regional Tourism Attractions. in L Lumsdon & SJ Page (eds). & Stank. from http://info. Italy. P.ANU. Japanese encephalitis and West Nile virus infection: four major arbovirus diseases. Australian Bureau of Statistics. no. ATS Group Pty Ltd (2001). 30. 1-16. J. R. 42. Barnett. Citizenship Studies. Commonwealth Government of Australia. A. et al.towards 2020 and beyond'. Anwar. Annual Australian Climate Summary 2005. 3.. M. Serie Research Memoranda. N. R. Adam. (2005a). BBC News. vol. Dangue.. 1. Hurricanes and global warming . Local Land Use Impacts and Socio-economic Response Strategies in Coastal Regions. 56. Black. Briggs. "MEDIA RELEASE: Australian ski resports muist diversify or perish: ANU 'Tourism into the future .a link? BBC News. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions " Nature 438(1038): 303-309. D. Closs. et al. Black. Bureau of Meteorology. London.. Turin. Bergh. R. H. Boston. 21(2). C. D (2004). & Marchou. vol. 'Tourism development and airlines in the new millennium: an operations management perspective'." Global Environmental Change 14: 31-52. and P. Tourism Recreation Research. pp. no. E. London. Nijkamp (1997).html. 9. Elsasser. 385-395. d. Elsevier. 'The future of tourism and hospitality'. Global Environmental Change. Arctic ice 'dissapearing fast'. Vrije Universiteit. J. (2003) Yellow Fever.

Cope. Marketing Edition. An Emerging Tourism Planning Paradigm: A comparative analysis between town and tourism planning. 97 . C. Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) 2002.I. Leisure and Tourism. Journal of Travel Research. Tourism in the 21 century: lessons from experience. Costello. (2003) eTourism. (2000b). Medlik (eds) Tourism and Hospitality in the 21st Century. challenges and solutions" in A. (2002) Tour Operators and Destination Safety.(2005) Economic Outlook for Australia and New Zealand Tourism Futures Conference 21st Century Responses to 21st Century Realities. 3 October 2005. Cothran. G Moscardo & E Laws (eds). Carnevale. Butterworth-Heinemann. D (2000a). 47-61. paper presented to the Fourth National Conference on Tourism Futures .An Overview. The Coming Labor Skills and Shortage. Annals of Tourism Research. (1994). Festival Tourism . London. London. P. 5-22. London: Mintel. (1998) Promise or Political Risk for Mexican Tourism. (2001) "The World of Today and Tomorrow: The Global View" in A. Butterworth-Heinemann.Investing for Growth. CABI Publishing. 'The major drivers for building inbound markets to Australia'. P (2005). Continuum.Government Printing Office. Annals of Tourism Research. Lockwood and S. L. Colahan. In T+D Virginia: American Society for Training and Development. (2005). Part II: Australian's long-term demographic and economic prospects: Commonwealth of Australia. Buhalis. A. G. Gold Coast. The world of travel in 2020. Wallingford. D. Oxford. 3(6). N. G. 478-496. Anthropology and Tourism: Past contributions and future theoretical challenges. Cendant & Future Foundation (2005). & Cothran. C. Anthropological Forum. Cavlek. C. Central Intelligence Agency . Cambridge. in WC Gartner & DW Lime (eds). Jones "Conclusions-problems. Cruise Lines International Association. Trends in Outdoor Recreation. 'The study of international tourism demand: a review of findings'. New York. 'Trends in information technology and tourism'. in B Faulkner. 29. pp. The Cruise Industry . D. Butler R. 163180. D. The Future Foundation. (2001). Spring. 425-441. (2002). Oxford. Lockwood and S. (2005).International. 14(1). Burns. (2004). 25. Buhalis. Crouch.Buhalis. and P. 'Tourism in an era of information technology'. Cetron M. Costa. New York. 33. 12-23. Prentice Hall: United Kingdom. pp. Medlik (eds) Tourism and Hospitality in the 21st Century. T. R. 477-497. The International Journal of Tourism Research. MA. Carmody G. Melbourne December 4-7.

L. "FACTSHEET: Energy and Resources .Australia's National Counter-Terrorism Policy and Arrangements. EarthTrends. Dwyer L. January 26th . (ed) Springer-Verlag Wien: Vienna pp261-272 D'Ambra. P (2005). Jeju Island. 1 pp 79-94. IN Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (Ed. J. Low-cost Airlines: An international overview.deh. Korea. Girona 13-16 June 2006 de Jong.Natural resources and environment. A. N. Future Trends Affecting Education [Electronic Version]. (2003). A. (2003). Gold Coast ISBN 9781920965181. Proceedings of the 54th TOSOK Conference. STCRC Technical Report. and Mistilis." Retrieved 14 November 2005. Energy Information Administration. (2005) Analysis of Perceived Quality of Information Resources and a priori Web Usage at the Sydney Visitor Information Centre. 191-204. Department of Energy. DEH. n. Travel Impact Newswire. Vol. (2006) 'How Sophisticated is the level of E-Commerce Adoption in Tourism Enterprises ?' BEST conference. from http://www.28th 2005.htm." Retrieved 23 November 2005. December. International Security. from http://www. Retrieved 11 October from http://www. Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2005.. Austria. resources and environment. Lundie (2006)” Concepts of Tourism Yield and their Measurement”. Dwyer. (2004) “Trends Underpinning Global Tourism in the Coming Decade” in W.. 152-174. Paper presented at ENTER05 The Twelfth International Conference on Information Technology and Travel & Tourism. P.html. El-Affendi. L. Deery and S. DPMC (2004) Protecting Australia Against Terrorism . Innsbruck. Spurr (2005) “ Estimating the Impacts of Special Events on the Economy” Journal of Travel Research Vol 43. No.CSIRO (2002). Future Dilemmas: Options to 2050 for Australia's population. M. unstable world'. Done. M. (2003).Biodiversity. DEH. Fredline.). London: Mintel. and Mistilis. Washington. N. Elhefnawy. Theobald (ed) Global Tourism. P. International Energy Outlook 2005. (1999). Forsyth.a. New York Dwyer L. 98 . DC. Jago. EIA (2005). Frew. J. D' (2004) Societal Complexity and Diminishing Returns in Security. Education Commission of the United Sates.html. Forsyth and R.Australia. pp 351-359 Dwyer L.S. (2005) “ Relevance of Triple Bottom Line Reporting to Achievement of Sustainable Tourism: a Scoping Study” Tourism Review International.Salinity. Chapter 4 . "Department of the Environment and Heritage: Preassures on the Land . (2005b). 9. Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Futures." Retrieved 23 November 2005. 'The future of Tourism in an insecure.ecs.deh. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. 29. U. Tourism Sciences Society of Korea. Dwyer L. “Trends Underpinning Tourism to 2015: An analysis of key drivers for change”. (1999) Islam and the future of dissent after the 'end of history'. May. (2005a). 31. technology. Butterworth-Heineman. Commonwealth of Australia. "Department of the Environment and Heritage .

European Travel Commission & European Travel and Tourism Action Group. Amsterdam. Tourism and transport: issues and agenda for the new millennium. 2. 575-585. (2001) Towards a framework for tourism disaster management. The European e-Business Market Watch Sector Report No. (Cartographer). (2006). Tourism Management. Brussels. 5. 137-150. Gold Coast. Tourism Management. Swinburne University of Technology TAFE Division. 24. future imperfect?' in L Lumsdon & SJ Page (eds). 3 October 2005.Elliot. paper presented to the Fourth National Conference on Tourism Futures . no. 135-147. L. 105-115. P. Greenway. "Tourism policy: a midsummer night's dream? Tourism Management 17(6): 405412. S. Freathy. N. Gold Coast.Investing for Growth. Flowers. (2003) Tourist's perceptions of safety and security while visiting Cape Town. Gordon (eds) (2000) State of the Future at the Millenium. European Commission Enterprise Directorate General eBusiness ICT and Services. 'Airline perspectives and aviation futures'.Impacts and Opportunities for Tourism” Tourism Futures Conference 21st Century Responses to 21st Century Realities. 573-580. 6. 14-20. Faulkner. 'The changing airport environment: past. paper presented to the Fourth National Conference on Tourism Futures . 12(1). (2005b). 24. Have the major forces driving leisure airline traffic changed? Journal of Air Transport Management. A.C. J. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management. 22. (1996). pp.J. ICT & e-business in the tourism sector. 2001 attack on America: a record of the immediate impacts and reactions in the USA travel and tourism industry. Trend Analysis: Methods and problems. R. Greenway. 3 October 2005. Gold Coast. N (1993). European Commission (2002). Melbourne December 4-7.Investing for Growth. 3 October 2005. Ellyard P (2006) “Societal Changes . D. present. Firminger. Graham. 99 . European Travel Commission (2004). Geller. International Political Science Review. George. (2002) September 11. American Council for the United Nations University Goodrich.13/October 2002. Melbourne: Strategic Planning Service. S (2005a). 'The influence of international tourism trends on the design'. Fayos-Sola. Boston. vol. 'Emerging travel patterns in fly-drive interstate leisure tourism'. K (2005). (2005). paper presented to the Fourth National Conference on Tourism Futures . p. S. Tourism Trends for Europe. Gerkovich. Conversations with the Experts: Generation X and work-life/values Glenn J.Investing for Growth. B. P (2004). and T. J & Johns. Elsevier. (2005). 'Budget airlines: the online success story'. Tourism Management. E. 23. (2003) Nuclear Weapons and the Indo-Pakistani Conflict: Global Implications of a Regional Power Cycle.

6. no. Heymann. "The end in sight?: Some speculations on environmental trends in the twenty-first century. Economics and Culture. N (1998). 150-161. et al. Hosts and Guests: The anthropology of tourism (2nd ed. 5. (2004) Political and Security Outlook: The Threat of Terrorism in 2004 .Greenwood. 'Tourist perception of environmental impact'. 453-462. Hing.. Holden. (2005). S. R. "Global change and food and forest production: future scientific challenges. Regional Choices. Human Resource Megatrends. L. 171-185). Ecosystems & Environment 82(1-3): 3-14. Smith (Ed. Gunn.what to expect? Trends in Southeast Asia Series. McCabe.. Nancarrow. London. M.. 101-120. Hitchcock. P & Leiper. 26. R. (1989). (2003) The Politics of Tourism in Myanmar. R." Agriculture. G. 1. Sustainable Tourism in the Travel Industry . J. C. 15(1). R. Goldblatt. S. Environment and Tourism. Looking Forward with a Glance Backward: An environmental scan for Australia. 'Will There Be a Unified Wireless Marketplace for Tourism?' Current Issues in Tourism.. (2001). HR Megatrends. Held D. (2004). (2003). 3-7. G. (2000). Hammond A. (2005) Bioseciurity and wine touriusm." Futures 32(3-4): 361-384. C. Griffin. vol. Perraton (1999) Global Transformations: Politics. James. Hammond. Lacet Infectious Diseases. and Syme. The Journal of Tourism Studies. Hultkrantz. Hennessy. 931-938. (2000). pp. 97-118. (1998). (2001) Regional influence grows in new economy. pp. Ingram (2000). P. Routledge. A. 7. L (2002). I.. 345-353. Hall. A McGrew. vol. 36(4).International. The Business Press. Canberra: The Australia Institute. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management. (1997). M. N. no. 10. (2001) Hot spots in a wired world: WHO surveillance of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Asia Pacific Business Review. D. D. (1998) Which World?Scenarios for the 21st Century: Global Destinies. Culture by the Pound: An anthropological perspective on tourism as cultural commoditization. Tourism Management. P. Gunaratna. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. (2001) Tourism and Total Crisis in Indonesia: The Case for Bali. Annals of Tourism Research. G. J. Lewis. A. L. Vol 28. p. J. & Rodier. 100 . The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia. V. Island Press NY. Hundloe. and J. CSIRO Atmospheric Research & CERES. Wheatton. K. London: Mintel. Prospects for Tourism Planning: Issues and concerns. M. Henderson. No 4. 'Hospitality trends in the Asia-Pacific: a discussion of five key sectors'. Hanson. Current Issues in Tourism. In V. 2.). 264. 8. pp 853-867. & Jones. Harper. 2. Hillery. Stanford Press. P. B. Gregory.. T. Ontario. D.

'PR gets adventurous with travel industry'. 'A meta-analytic review of international tourism demand'. & Reilly. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Scholes (1997) Exploring Corporate Strategy 4th edition Prentice Hall. and K. Singapore. no. (2004) Why not expect a "Wold State"? Cross-Cultural Research. Johnson. A. D. pp. and M. L.A Natural History. London Juhasz. 46. and R. D. "Global Warming and Infectious Disease. 119-132. Pasir Panjang. 38. (2000) Geographic Diffusion and the Transformation of the Postcommunist World. World Politics. London. 6-8. "Impact of Climate on Tourism Demand. K. U. Kopstein. Z. A brief history of tomorrow: the future. Lay. Kundzewicz. and L. 6. 16. Lim. J.Johnson. D. London: Mintel. J. Lise. Menzel (2003). BBC News. Lambro. (2001) September 11: The Globalilzation of Poverty. Lepp. Light. past. 20. 273-84. Climate change and the Australian ski industry. perceived risk and international tourism. J. London. The Futurist. The World and I. London. Madslien. Dwyer and P. International Conference ' Towards natural flood reduction strategies'. and present. 101 . McKelvie. In “Snow . Religious Tourism. W. New Directions for Evaluation. Norway allows Barents oil search. International Journal of Heritage Studies. Flood risk and vulnerability in the changing world. & Manda. Nettleman (2005). Tikkun. Forsyth (2007) “Environmental-Economic Measures of Tourism Yield” forthcoming Journal of Sustainable Tourism Lyon Andruss. S. Madslien. (2000) An unwanted past: Contemporary tourism and the heriatrge of communism in Romania. (2003) Tourist roles. D. an Uncertain Future”. & Gibson. 1-37. Marketing News. 23. Margolis. J. (2005). Canberra. (2000) Scope of ASEAN's Security Framework for the 21st Century. Johnson G. Annals of Tourism Research. (1998). Arctic exploration creates new alliances. Koenig. (1999). A. (1999) Ten trends that will shape American politics. F. Khasnis. (2005). (2004) Politics of Monitoring and Evaluation: Lessons from the AIDS Epidemic. 92. C. A. S. 103. Tol (2002). 34. V. (2001) The World in 2015.). J. J (2000). Bloomsbury. P. C. D. A. A. 13-31. D. Journal of Travel Research. 35. W. L. BBC News." Climatic Change 55: 429-449. Poland. 53. P (2000). (2003). 14. 37 (3). Warsaw. 606-624. Lundie. 145-160. Australian Alps Liaison Committee. Green (Ed. Luhulima. H. P." Archives of Medical Research 36(6): 689-696. 30. vol.

pp 63-73 Mistilis. and Agnes.. P. 61-70. Refereed paper presented at the BEST Education Network Think Tank V . "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. N. K. Mosier. London: Mintel. 2005. Human health and climate change in Oceania: a risk assessment 2002. Issue 4. June 16-19. N. K. pp. in B Faulkner. R." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 171(2): 267-276. London.McKelvie. McMichael. at the University of West Indies in Kingston Jamaica. and C. Commonwealth Government of Australia. D. B & Laws. NIC. and D. Annals of Tourism Research. A. 16-21. (2005) Knowledge Management for Tourism Crises and Disasters. Milly. (2002). Tourism and hospitality in the 21st century. (2005). Continuum. Gap Year Travel . J. E (2000). "Potential impact on the global atmospheric N2O budget of the increased nitrogen input required to meet future global food demands. (2005). New York . R. xviii-xxxii. and D'Ambra. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing. Tourism Review International. J. London: Mintel. R. 'Tourism and hospitality into the 21st century'.International. N. G. Woodruff. Washington. O'Byrne. N. Dunne. "Waterfalls. 2005.a preliminary investigation of Sydney hotels The Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management. Presbury. 399-416. Kroeze (2000). Price (1999). N. C. floods and climate change: evidence from tropical Australia. Tourism in the twenty-first century: reflections on experience. Department of Health and Ageing. pp. (2003) Mapping the Political Risk. and Sheldon. Vol 17. H (2001).. (2004) SMTEs web presence . P. 50. Minor. Mapping the Global Future. and Daniele. Oxford. US: National Intelligence Council. A.a scoping study of the level of web based e commerce adoption of regional and urban SMTE. and D'Ambra. P." Nature 438(17): 347-350. et al. Müller. 102 . in A Lockwood & S Medlik (eds). (2001) On passports and border controls. P. pp 42-55 Moscardo. Nott. 1. and Sheldon.International. et al. Girona Spain13-16 June 2006 Mistilis. N. (2006) Knowledge Management for Tourism Crises and Disasters. Worldwide Rail Tourism .Managing Risk and Crisis for Sustainable Tourism: Research and Innovation. Vol 11. CRC Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre (STCRC) Mistilis. Mistilis. Millington. 28. (2004) Challenges for Competitive Strategy in Public and Private Sector Partnerships in Electronic National Tourist Destination Marketing Systems. (2004) The strategic use of information and communication technology in marketing and distribution . Risk Management. G Moscardo & E Laws (eds). (2004). D. Faulkner. forthcoming June 2006 Mistilis. J. Butterwort-Heinemann. J. Mistilis. A. No. 'Introduction'. June 16-19." Chemosphere . (2006) 'How Sophisticated is the level of E-Commerce Adoption in Tourism Enterprises ?' BESTEN Business Enterprises for Sustainable Tourism Education Network Conference. R. J.. (2005).Global Change Science 2(3-4): 465-473.

Parish. present and future'. Murphy (2004)." Hospitality Management 23: 473-484. Future skills. London. 41. Porter M. 'Macroforces driving change into the new millennium . Perdue. London . MA. Olsen (2001). pp. Harvard Business Review. March: 63-78 Postel. Trends in Outdoor Recreation. "Research on information technology in the hospitality industry. P. A. pp. (2001) Mixed outbreak of Parainfluenza Type 1 and Influenza B associated with tourism and air travel. MA. Wallingford. 'Links between transport and tourism . pp.C. A & Williams. February. et al. Funnell (1999). C. 'Health tourism trends: closing the gap between health care and tourism'. Leisure and Tourism. Peters. CABI Publishing. 103 . Edward Elgar for the United Nations: USA Perz. Prideaux. and D. Washington. Cambridge. C. pp.. and J. D. "Water for food production: will there be enough in 2025?" Bioscience 48(8): 629-637. Olsen. M. New York. RR (2000). 189-191. 357-366. International Journal of Hospitality Management. 340-347. pp. 'Service quality in resort settings: trends in the application of information technology'. in WC Gartner & DW Lime (eds). (1999). 'Hospitality and the tourist of the future'. K. pp30-40 Pacific Area Travel Association. CORNELL Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly. P. Ritcher. D. (2005). J. In Toye. G Moscardo & E Laws (eds). Oxford. in B Faulkner. Cambridge. B (2000). J. "Climate change in mountain regions: some possible consequences in the Moroccan High Atlas. P (2000). C. Leisure and Tourism. Pollock. (2001) Strategy and the Internet. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. The Arctic's new gold rush. L." Global Environmental Change 9(1): 45-58.E. (2005). Patz.major challenges for the hospitality professional'. (2003) International Tourism and Its Global Public Health Consequences. London. G (1996). no. D. R. in WC Gartner & DW Lime (eds). Bangkok: Pacific Area Travel Association. in A Lockwood & S Medlik (eds). (2003) Technological change and opportunities for development as a moving target. 4. CABI Publishing. 165-173. (1998). M (1999). & Schaffner. 21 Issues & Trends That Will Shape Travel and Tourism in the 21st Century: Finding the right balance. Wallingford. Tourism in the 21 century: lessons from experience. Olsen. Raynolds. L. 91-109. Pitman.past. Trends in Outdoor Recreation. vol.. E. Continuum. Butterworth-Heinemann. J. (2003) Trade and Development Directions for the 21st Century. W. 5. 206-215. "Impact of regional climate change on human health " Nature 438(1038): 310-317. 371385. S. Campbell-Lendrum. 18. (2000) Experience-based Travel How Technology Is Changing the Hospitality Industry. BBC News. Allen. S. Perez. & Connolly. Journal of Travel Research. Tourism and hospitality in the 21st century.. Beyond the next wave: imagining the next generation of customers.O'Connor.

Travel Research International Limited. Accessed on 18 november 2006 from http://www. 'The effects on travel and tourism demand from three mega-trends: MEDIA RELEASE .A. and C. 24-37. & Meis. & Innovation. Smith. Simas. Tarlow. Telstra Corporate Communication Centre accessed 24 November2005. G. (1997) Tourism Information Technology. pp. November Singh. The Futurist. The National Intelligence Council. (2000). J (2000).. L. 310-322. (2001) Challenges Facing Tourism Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean Region in the New Millenium. Tourism and Hospitality Research. 183-192. Sonmez. Annals of Tourism Research. Todd. (2006) Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. M. Singh A (1997) "Asia Pacific Tourism Industry: Current Trends and Future Outlook" Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research. 202-227. S. Vol. Stern. CABI Publishing. N. Nunes. Teigland. 112-144. 48-51. Present. (1998) War and Tourism. & Wilson. Telstra About Telstra . N. et al. Leisure and Tourism. (2005). Journal of Travel Research. (2001). The 40. Tweeten.Telstra's Strategy for Growth. Telstra Corporate Communication Centre.hmtreasury. Telstra (2005) FACTSHEET Telstra About Telstra . Annals of Tourism Research. WTO background paper on climate change and tourism. United Nations Environment Program. (2003) Global Trends in Crime. Global Environment Outlook 3 . 6(1). 3746. A. Trends in Outdoor Recreation. 25. Wallingford.. J. http://www. Zulauf (2002). A.telstra. & Kasavana. Sheldon P. T. S. 41-46. 37. P. The impact of information technology on future management of lodging operations: A Delphi study to predict key technological events in 2007 and 2027. in WC Gartner & DW Lime (eds).cfm Telstra (2005b)." The Futurist 36(5): 54-59. 25.Sheldon P (2003) "Tourism Information Technology" unpublished. (/'1998) Influence of terrorism risk on foreign tourism decisions. D. P. CAB International: New York Spreng R. Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts. An Independent Review for The Treasury. Cambridge. and Future Perspectives. E. J. L. "Feeding the Strizzi. V. United Kingdom Government. L. (2003). Surveillance & Society. UNEP (2002). & Graefe. "Effects of global climate change on coastal salt marshes. market ideology and post-materialism as cultural wave'. (2002) Tourism in the Twenty-first Century. MA. . 2." Ecological Modelling 139(1): 1-15. 36. (2004) Open-Street CCTV in Australia: The Politics of Resistance and Expansion. A. G.spotlight. Stephens. F. Sutton. USA: National Foreign Intelligence Board.. 104 .

1. S. and S. (2005). (2000)." Energy Policy In Press. 2. vol. "Beyond peasant deforestation: environment and development in rural Jamaica.. "2020: a clearer view for the environment. "Future for global energy markets and security. D. 105 . Yeoman." Climate Policy 2(1): 3-18.consumer and tourist'. reality and analysis of causes of error. The Changing Shape of Australia's Population. Climate change health impacts in Australia . M & Graham.. (2003). 20. T. Management and Tools”. Woodruff." Climatic Change 40: (2002)." Global Environmental Change 10(4): 299-305. R. pp. (2000) Institutional Factors Influencing the Size and Structure of Tourism: Comparing Dalarna (Sweden) and Maine (USA). pp. Costa (Eds. M. & Heldt. G. S. I (2005). D.). Le Menestrel. A. G." World Meteorological Organization. 'The future of tourism . Viner. Tourism and Hospitality in the 21st century. Butterworth-Heinemann. Walton. WMO. (1998). Geneva Switzerland. (2005) The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: Impact on travel and tourism.effects of dramatic CO2 emission reductions. from http://www. T. Wilder-Smith. R. T. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease. Tourism and Hospitality Research. 1-31." Hydrocarbon Processing. "WMO#743 . "The oil industry and climate change: strategies and ethical dilemmas. Weston. no. 3. I. & Soriano. Weirauch. P. (2000). Bindraban.. S (2001). McInerney. Vail. vol.Utgikar. et al.WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2005.. Wolf. (2000).doc. Scott "Energy forecasting: Predictions. Retrieved 16 December 2005. Nicholls (2005).an online debate by experts in the field'. Willmott. VisitScotland. 'The world of today and tomorrow: the European picture'. Qu. pp. V." Agriculture. in A Lockwood & S Medlik (eds). J. J. Tourism and Hospitality Research. et al. B (2000). 2. J & Sparks. Climate change and its implications for international tourism. (2001). 'Tomorrow's world . Weis. 273-285. van den Hove. D. Waller-Hunter. S.. 378-382. (2005). U. & McMahon-Beattie. Wall. Elsevier Ltd. J. 4. In “Tourism Management Dynamics: Trends. no. 5(3). et al. and J.. P." The OECD Observer 221(222): 5860. (2005). Victoria: Australian Institute of Family Studies . "Exploratory study on the land area required for global food supply and the potential global production of bioenergy. Current Issues in Tourism.Commonwealth of Australia. "Increasing agricultural water use efficiency to meet future food production. Ward. Ecosystems & Environment 82(1-3): 105-119.wmo. Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper. "Implications of global climate change for tourism and recreation in wetland areas. Yeoman." Agricultural Systems 76(3): 841-861. 29-38. Hales. W. Oxford. T. (2002). L. P. Buhalis and C. 1-8. Corrected Proof. Wallace. S.

G. Continuum: 163-180. Meteorology. "Global climate change and the emergence/re-emergence of infectious diseases." Retrieved 23 November 2005. (2000) "Ten Trends Shaping the Future of Leisure Travel" Hotel and Motel Management. Bergsma. o. A. J. Viner (2001). ATS Group Pty Ltd (2001). R. ATS Group Pty Ltd. Tourism in an era of information technology. X. C. Moscardo and E.a. de Jong. 22 December 2004). New York.Yesawich P. (2004). "Potential impacts of climate change on international tourism. (2005). BOM (2006). P. DEH. from http://www. Buhalis.html. 4 March 2005).deh. 'Knowledge management through the web: a new marketing pardaigm for tourism organizations'. Laws. G Moscardo & E Laws (eds). from http://www. P. B. O'Leary. in B Faulkner. London. (2005. Zell. M. Living with Climate Change: An Overview of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Australia. DEH. "Department of the Environment and Heritage: Preassures on the Land . (2000)." International Journal of Medical Microbiology Supplements 293(Supplement 37): 16-26. Continuum. Annual Australian Climate Summary 2005. Emerging Trends in the Tourism Sector and their Impact on Regional Tourism Attractions. (2005). AGO (2002). (2000). T. B. Faulkner. et al. No. AGO (2005). "The future of tourism and hospitality." Tourism and Hospitality Research 2(1): 76-79. Office. Agnew. pp." Retrieved 23 November 2005.deh." Tourism & Hospitality Research 3(1): 37-60. J & Fesenmaier. and D. Tourism in the 21 century: lessons from experience. New York. TRACKING TO THE KYOTO TARGET 2005 .Salinity. Adam. D. 19 N6 November pp 26-27 You. Tourism in the 21 century: lessons from experience. G.html.. "The future of Tourism in an Department of the Environment and Heritage. D. "Department of the Environment and Heritage Biodiversity.Australia’s Greenhouse Emissions Trends 1990 to 2008-2012 and 2020. Australian Greenhouse Office. 106 . M." Travel Impact Newswire: n. (2005. unstable world. Commonwealth of Australia. D (2000). 215. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions " Nature 438(1038): 303-309.

(No Date) Understanding Generation Jeju Island. North Parramatta. No. Medlik (eds) Tourism and Hospitality in the 21st Century. Sydney: The Australian Leadership Foundation http://www. Island Press NY. Korea. Cruise Lines International Association. 107 .html McCrindle M. Tourism Sciences Society of Korea. Gordon (eds) (2000) State of the Future at the Millenium. Regional Choices.cia. The Cruise Industry . New and P. Butterworth-Heinemann. Held D. Economics and Culture.PATA. Perraton (1999) Global Transformations: Politics. (1998) Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century: Global Destinies. Oxford.C. Cetron M. challenges and solutions” in A. Lockwood and S. Glenn J. Trends Underpinning Tourism to 2015: An analysis of key drivers for change. Oxford. Stanford Press. Sheldon P (2003) “Tourism Information Technology” J. National Intelligence Council (2000) “ Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts” (2001) “The World of Today and Tomorrow: The Global View” in A. Butterworth-Heinemann.J. L. Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) 2002. <www. and T. pdf PATA (1999) “21 Issues & Trends That Will Shape Travel and Tourism in the 21 Century” Pacific Asia Tourism Association. Medlik (eds) Tourism and Hospitality in the 21st Century. National Foreign Intelligence Board.An Overview. Marketing Edition. A McGrew. November 2-6. December. Goldblatt. Proceedings of the 54th TOSOK Conference. References Butler R. American Council for the United Nations University Hammond> Sauvante M (2001) The “Triple Bottom Line”: a Boardroom Guide” Directors Monthly Vol 25. 11. (2003). www. Lockwood and S.Dwyer. Jones “ Conclusions-problems. Spring. D.

Todd. No. Simas. and N. W. Wallingford. DOI: Elliot. Costa.consumer and tourist. Cambridge. G. CABI Publishing: 165-173. Medlik (eds) Tourism and Hospitality in the 21st Century. November Willmott M. Lockwood and S. and S. (2000). W. MA. P." The OECD Observer 221(222): 58-60. Vol. Lime. Poon. Mapping the Global Future. T. (2005). Yeoman. "2020: a clearer view for the environment. UK. Waller-Hunter. Viner. Williams (2000). Nicholls (2005). Travel Research International Limited. Health tourism trends: closing the gap between health care and tourism. 215. Wallingford. Trends in Outdoor Recreation. "The influence of international tourism trends on the design. D. WTO background paper on climate change and tourism. (2003). Elsevier Ltd. (2000) “Ten Trends Shaping the Future of Leisure Travel” Hotel and Motel Management. Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project. Tourism Management Dynamics: Trends. 2. Pollock. Nunes. National Intelligence Council (2004). Buhalis and C. (1993). Yesawich P. A. and P." Ecological Modelling 139(1): 1-15. "Tomorrow's world . D. I. Technology and Competitive Strategies. Johns (1993). et al. Gartner and D. Management and Tools. A. J. Graham “ The World of Today and Tomorrow: the European Picture” in A. 108 . C. The National Intelligence Council (2000). Oxford. 19 N6 November pp 26-27 Education Commission of the United Sates (1999) Future Trends Affecting Education. J." VisitScotland 1(2): 1-31. J. CAB International. Climate change and its implications for international tourism. Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts. Butterworth-Heinemann. National Foreign Intelligence Board. US. National Intelligence Council: 120.. "Effects of global climate change on coastal salt marshes. Washington. Leisure and Tourism. Tourism." International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 5(2): 6. (2001). USA.Singh A (1997) “Asia Pacific Tourism Industry: Current Trends and Future Outlook” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research. and S. Volume.

Appendix 1 Tourism Forecasts to 2015. Australia 109 .

ABS (Cat No. Historical data for these variables are obtained from the following sources: • • • • Inbound: Overseas Arrivals and Departures. TRA Economic value: Australian Tourism Satellite Account. ABS (Cat No. TRA. 3401.0). Economist Intelligence Unit Macroeconomic forecasts: Consensus Forecasts.0) Domestic: National Visitor Survey. TRA Outbound: Overseas Arrivals and Departures. International Visitor Survey. National Visitor Survey. Tourism Research Council New Zealand. Forecasts for tourism activity are largely based on assumptions of future economic Macroeconomic data: Various international and national statistical agencies.Appendix 2: Data Sources Tourism is influenced by a range of factors. Historical data and forecasts for macroeconomic data and currencies are obtained from the following sources: • • • • Currencies: www. and domestic travel. Consensus Economics Demographic data: World Bank The main variables of interest are economic value and activity for inbound. and International Air Transport Association. outbound. 110 . International Visitor Survey. Central Banks. 3401. ABS (Cat No. TRA The TFC Forecasts are also considered against other forecasts from Pacific Asia Travel Association.oanda. 5249.0).

Appendix 3 111 .

Appendix 3 112 .

113 .

114 .