February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
by Patti Freeman Evans for eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

Making Leaders Successful Every Day

For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals
Includes a market-sizing forecast February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
by Patti Freeman Evans with Vikram Sehgal, Cristina Bugnaru, and Brendan McGowan

EX ECUTI VE S U M MA RY
US online retail sales will reach $229 billion in 2013. e market will grow at a CAGR of 10% over the ve-year forecast period. e current economic crisis is dampening the immediate growth of online sales, due to lack of credit access, low consumer con dence, decreased spending, and price-conscious behavior. Some product categories, such as video games, pet supplies, and auto parts, will weather the economic conditions better than others, like PCs and home improvement products. In the long term, the demographics of online buyers will sustain the pace of growth of online sales, as these buyers are less susceptible to nancial di culties; the foundational strengths of eCommerce, such as accessibility, will also support growth. e online market will enter a natural early phase of maturing in the latter three years of the forecast. Nonetheless, eCommerce will continue to have a very strong in uence on both online and o ine retail sales, with the total Web impact on retail sales growing at a CAGR of 10%.

TABL E O F CO NTE N TS
2 The Pace Of US Online Retail Sales Growth Slows Slightly Between 2008 And 2013
WHAT IT MEANS

N OTES & RES O U R CES
We conducted our analysis using a series of proprietary models.

12 Online Retailers Need To Remain Cautious In The Immediate Future

Related Research Documents “US Online Holiday Retail Forecast, 2008” October 21, 2008

© 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please email clientsupport@forrester.com. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com.

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

THE PACE OF US ONLINE RETAIL SALES GROWTH SLOWS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 2008 AND 2013 In 2008, US retail sales grew to $141 billion; we project 2009 sales to grow by approximately 11% (see Figure 1). Over the ve-year forecast period of 2009 to 2013, online retail in the US will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% to reach $229 billion in 2013 (see Figure 2). A CAGR of 10% is a re ection of continued eCommerce strength, which contrasts with the recent weak o ine sales during this past holiday season. In light of the current economic environment, online retail will have a dampened growth rate through 2010 (see Figure 3). By 2011, the negative e ects of the economy will have dwindled; however, toward the end of the ve-year forecast, the growth curve will dip below double-digit levels because of the natural market maturing pattern of the online retail environment, as we had noted in previous years.1 Economic Pressures Dampen The Immediate Growth Of Online Sales e recent economic developments caused by the credit and housing crisis have forced the US into recession. According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists, the unemployment rate is forecast to top out at 8.4% as job cuts continue into 2010, further reducing consumer spending power.2 Consequently, the multiple economic pressures that consumers are facing will negatively in uence both the online and the o ine US retail sectors, with online being less a ected.

· Online buyers have less available credit to

nance their purchases. Consumers are no longer able to take equity out of their homes to fund spending. e recent economic crisis has caused a decrease in home prices, and e Wall Street Journal December 2008 Economic Forecasting Survey predicts a 6.9% drop in the house price index, with further declines expected into 2009. is decline in home equity is coupled with consumers’ reduced access to credit and has an overall negative impact on consumer spending power and consumption.

· Consumer con

dence is at its lowest point in decades. According to the Institute for Social Research of the University of Michigan, the June 2008 index of consumer sentiment reached 56.4, a 34% decrease since the same month in 2007 — and the third-lowest reading since 1952.3 e reality of the current economic conditions and the continuous media reporting of increasing gas and consumer product prices, falling home prices, declines in pension investments, accelerating job losses, and the restriction of the credit markets have had a negative e ect on consumer con dence. According to a recent JupiterResearch consumer survey, 35% of buyers plan to avoid major purchases given the current state of the US economy, a re ection of the general consumer wariness.4

February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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Figure 1 Forecast: US eCommerce Sales, 2008 To 2013
Actual 2008 Total US online sales ($ billions) Growth Apparel, accessories, and footwear Appliances and home improvement Art and collectibles Auto parts Books Computer hardware, software, and peripherals Consumer electronics Event tickets Flowers Food and beverage Furniture Jewelry Movie tickets Music/video Office products Over-the-counter medicines and personal care Pets Sporting goods Toys and video games Other $141.3 13% $23.6 $17.2 $1.7 $3.2 $5.1 $25.5 $11.1 $5.0 $2.2 $7.3 $1.6 $3.1 $1.0 $5.5 $5.2 $5.0 $1.5 $2.7 $6.7 $7.2 Forecast 2009 $156.1 11% $27.0 $19.2 $1.8 $3.6 $5.4 $27.2 $12.5 $5.2 $2.4 $8.6 $1.8 $3.4 $1.1 $6.2 $5.5 $5.9 $1.8 $2.9 $7.2 $7.4 2010 $176.9 13% $30.9 $22.5 $2.2 $4.2 $5.9 $30.1 $14.6 $5.6 $2.7 $10.3 $2.3 $4.0 $1.2 $7.1 $6.0 $6.9 $2.1 $3.2 $7.6 $7.5 2011 $194.4 10% $34.1 $25.2 $2.5 $4.7 $6.3 $32.4 $16.3 $6.0 $2.9 $11.9 $2.7 $4.5 $1.3 $7.8 $6.5 $7.8 $2.5 $3.4 $8.0 $7.6 2012 $211.7 9% $37.2 $27.8 $2.9 $5.2 $6.7 $34.3 $17.8 $6.3 $3.1 $13.6 $3.2 $5.0 $1.4 $8.4 $6.9 $8.7 $2.9 $3.6 $8.9 $7.7 2013 $229.1 8% $40.3 $30.3 $3.2 $5.8 $7.1 $36.0 $19.2 $6.7 $3.3 $15.4 $3.7 $5.5 $1.5 $8.8 $7.4 $9.6 $3.3 $3.9 $10.4 $7.8

Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US)
53795 Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

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February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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Figure 2 US Online Retail Sales Will Grow At A CAGR Of 10% Through 2013
US online retail sales* ($ billions) $211.7 $194.4 $176.9 $141.3 $125.1 $156.1

$229.1

2007 % of total US retail sales 5%

2008 5%

2009 6%

2010 6%

2011 7%

2012 8%

2013 8%

*Retail does not include auto, travel, and prescription drugs. Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US)
53795 Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

Figure 3 Organic Growth In The Number Of Buyers And Individual Spend Will Level Off
30% Year-over-year growth rate

Total US online sales

Per-buyer online spending

19%

18% 13% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% 13% 10% 10% 7% 3% 9% 6% 2% 2012 8% 6% 2% 2013

New online buyers

9%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US)
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February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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· Consumers are saving more than they have in the past four years. Consumers are aware that

the economy goes through cycles, but given the depth of the current recession, they will continue to maintain a decreased spending level in an attempt to rebuild their savings — even if their con dence increases. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal saving rate of consumers — which measures the amount of disposable income that they don’t spend — was close to 3% in the second quarter of 2008, a er almost four years at less than 1%.5 Saving more means spending less, which translates into di cult times for retail.

· Consumers are

nding ways to trade down. Fi een percent of consumers plan to buy secondary market products rather than the newest item.6 is urge to trade down is also re ected in WalMart’s remarkable performance in the 2008 holiday season. e world’s largest retailer reported an increase of 3.4% in same-store sales for the month of November, a period during which most retailers posted decreases. Discount stores and merchandise mixes that appeal to consumers’ need to trade down are more likely to be successful in the current environment. irty-three percent of online users will do more research online to make sure they get the best price before purchasing goods.7 Twenty-two percent say they will use search engines and comparison-shopping sites, and 13% will plan their trips in more detail, using the Web to reduce the number of visits to the stores. is research process shows an increased concern for not only nding the best deals but also for doing more targeted shopping and making fewer impulse purchases.

· Consumers do more research for the best deals.

Online Buyers’ Demographics Are A Catalyst For Online Retail Sales Growth e recent economic developments have in uenced all consumers in the US. e impact of the economic slowdown on online retail will be mitigated to an extent by the fact that some of the online-speci c demographics of buyers are more recession-proof than those of the average o ine shopper. Due to their particular characteristics, online buyers remain a bit more resilient overall and thus will help sustain modest online sales growth.

· Online buyers are wealthier and less a

ected by the economy. Online buyers with household incomes of $75,000 or more represent the largest group of the online buying population (see Figure 4). ey make up more than 40% of all online buyers — almost twice the number of those with household incomes of $50,000 to $75,000. ey are also less a ected by the economy than the average consumer.8 Forty-four percent of consumers with household incomes of $75,000 or more think that their nancial situation is likely to remain about the same, while 25% believe that it will become slightly better. Also, this group makes an average of 10 purchases per year, which is two more than the average online buyer.

· In the near term, disproportionate online spending by men will support online sales.

e male/female spending split is almost equal online; this contrasts with o ine, where women are commonly held to account for roughly 70% of purchases (see Figure 5). e percentage of males who will shop less overall is 18 percentage points lower than the percentage of females who will adopt the same attitude as a result of the current state of the US economy.9
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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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Figure 4 Households With Incomes Of $75,000-Plus Provide More Than Half Of Online Retail Spend
Household income: $75,000+ $50,000-$75,000 Overall online retail spend ($ billions) $68 $92 $82 $75 $111

$98

$105

$28 $75,000+ households’ share of US online retail spending
53795

$31 2008 53%

$35 2009 53%

$40 2010 52%

$46

$51

$57

2007 53%

2011 51%

2012 49%

2013 48%

Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Demographic Model, 12/08 (US)
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

Figure 5 The Male/Female Spending Split Is Almost Equal Online
Overall US online retail spending by gender Female Male $98 $89 ($ billions) $71 $78 $115 $114 $106

$70

$78

$88

$97

$106

Male share of online retail spending

2008 50%

2009 50%

2010 50%

2011 50%

2012 50%

2013 50%

Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Demographic Model, 12/08 (US)
53795 Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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The Foundational Strengths Of eCommerce Drive Continued Short-Term Growth eCommerce provides a series of advantages that directly address buyers’ needs in nancially di cult times. ese include better deals, convenience, and access to information. ese bene ts are likely to motivate a wallet shi from o ine to online, further strengthening online sales and fostering added growth of channel share.

· Online shopping is perceived as less expensive. Seventy-one percent of online buyers who use

more than one Web site when purchasing products online are in search of better prices.10 e online channel is still perceived as a means of nding the best deals and less expensive items. At the same time, consumers do not have to pay tax for those retailers that do not have brick-andmortar facilities in the state from where the purchase is made, which can reduce the price even further.

·

e Internet provides easy, anytime access to a vast array of useful information. Of the online buyers who use more than one Web site when shopping around, 41% do so because they like to shop around whereas 30% are in search of more product information.11 e online channel o ers the possibility of doing this research easily, as there are no switching costs involved in moving from one Web site to another. Consumers can conveniently research a larger set of retailers than they could visit in their local market. e vastness of the sites o ering relevant product information has proved valuable to online users rather than daunting. In fact, 58% of online users say that the breadth of information available online helps them feel more con dent that they are buying the right product to meet their needs. ers consumer and expert opinions. Product reviews are one of the features that clearly distinguish the online shopping experience from the o ine one. Twentythree percent of online buyers shopping at more than one Web site were in search of product reviews from other buyers or from experts.12 is type of content o ers an extra boost of con dence and will continue to attract consumers.

· Online shopping o

Online Retail Sales Growth Will Level Off In The Long Term With the strengthening of the economy, the year-over-year growth percentages of online sales will get stronger by 2010/2011. However, these growth rates will not bounce back to pre-2007 levels, as the online marketplace will enter a natural early phase of maturing by the latter three years of the forecast.

· Over time, the number of online purchases will stabilize. Individual online buyer spending
will begin to enter a period of stabilization in the later years of the current forecast, with consumers making an average of eight online purchases per year.13

· New buyer growth slows to a long-term organic pattern. Online buyer penetration is already
slightly more than 70% among those online buyers ages 19 to 64 and with household incomes of $75,000 or more. By 2013, the number of consumers who have made at least one purchase

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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online will reach 69% and is expected to plateau at this level. Moreover, consumers who adopt online purchasing in the next few years will most likely come from lower socioeconomic groups and have a lower impact on sales growth.

·

e stabilization of online sales characterizes the long-term growth trend. Over the coming decades, online retail sales will plateau at around 10% of total US retail sales Within the con nes of this ve-year forecast, the rate of growth for online sales in the US will slow to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% through 2013. e mature US catalog industry will see sales growth of 8% year over year, and the DMA projects that it will remain at that rate over the coming ve years, with economic factors causing some near-term downward adjustments.14 Analogous industries give us a directional sense of how a channel matures over time.

Some Online Product Categories Are More Insulated From The Recession Than Others Seventeen of the 31 categories we forecast will still experience double-digit CAGRs over the next ve years. Some of these categories are large in terms of actual spending, such as apparel and accessories and consumer electronics. Other large categories, such as PCs, so ware, and books, will grow at less than 10%. e economic downturn a ects these growth rates but does not a ect the growth rates of all categories equally (see Figure 6).
Figure 6 Categories With The Highest Penetration Show Slight Gains In Market Share
US online sales as a percent of total category sales 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Personal computers Peripherals Videos Auto parts Apparel and accessories Home improvement 2008 48% 32% 13% 8% 7% 1% 2009 49% 32% 14% 9% 8% 2% 2010 52% 33% 15% 10% 9% 2% 2011 54% 33% 16% 11% 9% 2% 2012 54% 33% 16% 11% 10% 2% Peripherals PCs

Videos Auto parts Apparel and accessories Home improvement 2013 54% 33% 17% 12% 10% 2%

Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US)
53795 Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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PCs/Electronics ese include:

· Personal computers (PCs).

e PC product category will grow 7% in 2009 and 12% in 2010, a slight decrease from last year’s 15%. e nature of a PC purchase is an “all or nothing” one, as people will either buy a PC or defer their purchase. In contrast, a consumer may buy one book fewer in a year but will still buy books in a year of lowered spending. erefore, the PC category is more adversely a ected by consumers cutting back their spending, particularly on big purchases where they cut out buys in that category completely. Technological advancements o en drive sales in this product category; however, even these enticements may fall on deaf ears, with many buyers in this category choosing to bypass high-ticket purchases during nancially di cult times. Even Apple, a company that has outpaced the growth of the overall PC market, showed signs of weakness in November 2008, with sales declining 1% compared with a year earlier.15 is decrease in PC online sales is also caused by the fact that this category already represents almost 50% of total US consumer PC sales; as an early growth category, it has matured earlier than others (see Figure 7).

Figure 7 The Percentage Of Online Buyers Is Leveling Off In High-Penetration Categories
Percentage of US online buyers 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Video games Home improvement Personal computers Pet supplies Auto parts Video games Home improvement PCs Pet supplies Auto parts

2007 14% 13% 11% 8% 6%

2008 15% 12% 12% 9% 7%

2009 15% 12% 12% 9% 8%

2010 16% 12% 13% 9% 8%

2011 17% 13% 13% 10% 9%

2012 17% 13% 14% 10% 10%

2013 17% 13% 14% 11% 10%

Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US)
53795 Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

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February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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· Video games. Video games are an interactive form of escapism, and they cost no more than a

family’s movie outing or having dinner at a restaurant. With the introduction of Nintendo’s Wii and various enhancements to the latest-generation console systems, the video game market has been growing at a healthy rate. In addition, newer systems like the Wii have attracted a videogame-playing audience that traditionally shied away from gaming. More games targeting a broader family set have appeared, with so ware publishers releasing titles aimed at young girls, families, and women over 35.16 Consumers’ inclination to “nest” during di cult times is thus re ected in the sales of video games, an area where spending was not cut back in 2008.17 As a result, online sales reached $4.5 billion in 2008 and grew 15% over 2007.

Affordable Indulgences ese include:

· Pet supplies.

e total online spending for pet supplies will grow at a CAGR of 17% over the next ve years. With double-digit growth, this category seems to be more insulated from the recession than others, due to consumers’ tendency to pamper their pets for the emotional comfort that they provide in return. Pet products are not necessarily high-ticket items. Some items, such as pet food, are necessities for pet owners and require regular purchases, whereas other items, such as pet toys, are a ordable indulgences that entail at least a minimum level of spending.

Do-It-Yourself Items ese include:

· Home improvement products.

is is one category that is not weathering the recession as well as other businesses. With house sales declining, consumers are also not doing any major improvements to their homes but are instead limiting themselves to necessary repairs. In 2008, online spending on home improvement products increased by only 3%. is substantial decrease in the growth rate will bounce back slightly during 2009, with spending going up by 17% in 2010. e online sales of auto parts will grow at a CAGR of 12% over the next ve years, and the number of online buyers in this product category will grow at a CAGR of 11%. e current recession is increasing consumer interest in auto parts, as consumers turn toward xing their cars instead of buying new ones. A sharp decline in demand for cars reinforces this trend: GM expects to get government funding to pull itself out of nancial trouble, and Toyota’s domestic sales decreased 27.6% in November 2008 and its exports dropped 23.9% in the same month.18

· Auto parts.

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US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
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Online Research Will Influence More Than Half Of Offline Sales Online sales and o ine sales in uenced by consumers researching their purchases online will grow to 54% of total US retail sales by 2013 (see Figure 8). is staggering percentage illustrates the value consumers place on the Internet as a trusted research resource for their purchases. e total online and o ine retail sales in uenced by eCommerce will grow at a CAGR of 10% for the next ve years, a percentage una ected by the economic pressures.

· Customers don’t want to make a mistake.

irty-four percent of online buyers make a purchase only a er returning to the Web site for a second time. is does not necessarily prove their indecision but rather the fact that they use the Web as a tool to inform themselves about products, to research better prices, and to ensure that they make the right purchase decision.19

· Shoppers continue to value a multichannel experience. Forty-two percent of online buyers

expect to be able to return or exchange items purchased online in a physical store, and 27% want to be able to order products online and pick them up in a brick-and-mortar store.20 To gain competitive advantage, retailers should implement a highly integrated strategy that brings together their online and o ine stores; they will then derive the bene ts of the online in uence on o ine sales.

Figure 8 Online Research Continues To Play A Primary Role In Influencing Offline Sales
US online and online-influenced retail sales ($ billions) Online-infuenced retail sales Online retail sales $1,069 $937 $834 $733 $610 $1,348

$1,177

$1,266

2010 US online and online-influenced 30% 34% 37% 40% 46% retail sales as a % of total sales Source: Forrester Research Internet Retail Offline Influence Model, 12/08 (US)
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$106 2006

$125 2007

$141 2008

$156 2009

$177

$194 2011 50%

$212 2012 53%

$229 2013 54%

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

© 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009

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International Online Retail Expansion Loses Luster With The Growing Global Economic Crisis What seemed to be a US-only nancial crisis has expanded and is now stretching across the globe — from the developed world to developing countries. Retailers with international operations abroad have been bene ting from economies of scale; however, the prospects of investing in such an expansion for those that have not done it already may be less attractive in the next two years.

· Global economic growth has slowed down.

e latest economic forecast from the World Bank expects the world economy’s growth to slow to 0.9% in 2009, down from 2.5% in 2008 — the weakest expansion since the bank started keeping records in 1970.21 Due to consumers’ increased unemployment and decreased income, consumption will closely follow this reduction of economic growth, which will have an impact on online sales abroad. ected as developing countries. Consumers in developed and developing countries are strapped for cash. e credit crisis has extended to countries in the European Union, while decreased consumption in the US has a ected countries like China. Consumers across the globe will have to scale back just as US consumers are forced to now, hindering the expansion of online sales abroad.

· Developed countries are equally as a

· Capital investment is retrenching. Anecdotal reports from online retailers and the vendors

serving them herald some retrenching regarding planned near-term investments. ey report that rather than moving forward with total replatforming projects, retailers may be looking to pick a few smaller development projects. For example, improving the checkout experience by implementing a Flash-based process is a more plausible investment than a full- edged international expansion project in tough economic times. is pattern is likely to a ect retailers that have not yet launched operations abroad but were planning to do so in the coming quarters.

W H AT I T M E A N S

ONLINE RETAILERS NEED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE
During the next 12 to 18 months, online retailers need to remain cautious. The current economic crisis will affect online sales, yet not as severely as offline sales. The growth rate will pick up starting in 2010/2011, but we will not see “hockey-stick” growth opportunities, due to the natural maturing of the online market. This period will continue to reinforce the fundamental values of the online environment, which will likely resonate with consumers’ concerns in the long term and support online sales growth during financially difficult times and beyond.

ENDNOTES
1

Online retail in the US continues to perform well in spite of macroeconomic events, yet, over time, the market will inevitably mature. See the January 26, 2008, “US Online Retail Forecast, 2007 To 2012” JupiterResearch report.

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2 3

Source:

e Wall Street Journal December 2008 Economic Forecasting Survey.

Source: Institute for Social Research of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Report, June 2008 (http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/documents.php?c=r). Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q4 2008. Source: “Personal Saving Rate,” US Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/saving.htm). Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q4 2008. Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q4 2008. Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q4 2008. Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: e DMA 2008 Statistical Fact Book (http://www.nmoa.org/catalog/dma/dma_stats.htm). e Wall Street

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Source: Yukari Iwatani Kane and Justin Scheck, “Apple Loses Some Shine as Mac Sales Slow,” Journal, December 16, 2008 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122938758242108907.html).

16

Source: Barbara Ortutay, “Big Video Games Fans Prove Crucial to the Industry,” Associated Press, December 18, 2008 (http:// nance.yahoo.com/news/Big-video-game-fans-prove-apf-13870552.html). For additional information on PC and console games, see the November 12, 2008, “US Console Games Forecast, 2008 to 2013” JupiterResearch report. Source: Yoshio Takahashi, “Toyota’s Domestic Output Drops Sharply,” 2008 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123011725097232599.html). e Wall Street Journal, December 24,

17

18

19 20 21

Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). Source: e Wall Street Journal December 2008 Economic Forecasting Survey.

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