Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Obesity
Publication Date: December 2007

Table of Contents

Disease Etiology................................................................... 6
Determination of Diagnosis.............................................. 6
Epidemiology & Patient Population Estimates........................... 7
Theoretical Patient Population.......................................... 7
Overweight Population .............................................. 7
Obese Population ..................................................... 7
Addressable Patient Population ........................................ 9
Treated Patient Population .............................................. 9
Obesity Patient Population Model ................................... 11
Disease & Market Definitions ............................................... 12
Drug Classes................................................................ 12
Reduce Energy Intake ............................................. 12
Nutrient Partitioning/Lipase Inhibitor......................... 12
Increase Energy Expenditure ................................... 12
Other .................................................................... 12
Off-Label Use............................................................... 13
Drugs to Treat Depression ....................................... 13
Drugs to Treat Seizures ........................................... 13
Drugs to Treat Diabetes .......................................... 13
OTC Drugs for Obesity .................................................. 13
Alli (orlistat) ........................................................... 13
5-HTP/Tryptophan .................................................. 13
Calcium/Vitamin D .................................................. 14
Cimetidine ............................................................. 14
Conjugated Linoleic Acid.......................................... 14
Ephedrine .............................................................. 14
Hoodia .................................................................. 14
Teas ..................................................................... 14
Compounds with Questionable Weight-Loss Results ......... 15
Chitosan ................................................................ 15
Chromium.............................................................. 15

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 Garcinia Cambogia.................................................. 15
Hypericum ............................................................. 15
Melatonin .............................................................. 15
Leptoprin............................................................... 16
Bariatric Surgery .......................................................... 16
Restrictive Procedures ............................................. 16
Malabsorptive Procedures ........................................ 16
Combination Procedures.......................................... 17
Forecasting Methodology............................................... 17
Market Revenue Forecasts............................................. 17
U.S. Obesity Market Model, 2004-2013 ........................... 19
AVOS Physician Panel Results .............................................. 21
Physician Treatment Patterns......................................... 21
Patient Compliance ....................................................... 23
High Cost............................................................... 23
Negative Side Effect Profile...................................... 23
Behavioral and Lifestyle Changes.............................. 23
Physician Product Selection Criteria ................................ 24
Cost of Therapy...................................................... 24
Tolerability............................................................. 24
Long Term Efficacy ................................................. 24
Historical Physician Use Patterns .............................. 24
Patient Response .................................................... 25
Availability of Drug Samples..................................... 25
Physician Product Ratings & Forecasts of Future Market
Trends ........................................................................ 25
Market Overview ................................................................ 29
Leading Products.......................................................... 29
Market History ............................................................. 29
Current Market Environment.......................................... 31
Economic Issues Associated with Obesity ........................ 32
Economic Consequences ......................................... 32
Product Profiles
Xenical ........................................................................ 33
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 33
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 34
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 34

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 Product History ...................................................... 35
Meridia........................................................................ 36
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 36
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 37
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 37
Product History ...................................................... 38
Phentermine ................................................................ 39
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 39
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 40
Product History ...................................................... 40
Phendimetrazine/Diethylpropion/Benzphetamine .............. 41
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 41
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 42
Product History ...................................................... 42
Cetilistat...................................................................... 43
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 43
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 44
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 44
Rimonabant ................................................................. 45
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 45
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 46
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 47
Taranabant/CP-945,598/SLV-319 ................................... 48
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 49
Product History ...................................................... 50
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 51
Lorcaserin ................................................................... 52
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 52
Product History ...................................................... 53
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 53
Liraglutide ................................................................... 55
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 55
Product History ...................................................... 55
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 56
Pramlintide + Leptin ..................................................... 57
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 57
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 58

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 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 58
Drugs in Development ........................................................ 59
R&D Overview ............................................................. 59
Cannabinoid-1 Receptor Antagonists......................... 59
Lipase Inhibitors..................................................... 59
Serotonin Agonists.................................................. 59
Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Agonists ............................. 59
Amylin Agonist ....................................................... 59
Assessment of R&D Success Rates ................................. 60
Products in the Pipeline................................................. 61
Phase III (Seven Agents)......................................... 61
Phase II (10 Agents)............................................... 62

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