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Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Asthma/COPD
Publication Date: November 2007

Tables and Figures

Tables
Table 1: Main Types of Asthma.............................................. 4
Table 2: Classifications of Asthma .......................................... 5
Table 3: Asthma and COPD Patient Population Model ............... 8
Table 4: U.S. Asthma and COPD Market Model, 2004-2013 ..... 12
Table 5: U.S. Asthma and COPD Market Model, 2004-2013 ..... 13
Table 6: AVOS Physician Panel Market Trend Forecasts .......... 18
Table 7: Marketed Products in the United States.................... 22
Table 8: Advair – Revenue Model......................................... 24
Table 9: Advair – Commercial Strength................................. 24
Table 10: Symbicort – Revenue Model .................................. 27
Table 11: Symbicort – Commercial Strength .......................... 27
Table 12: Spiriva – Revenue Model ...................................... 29
Table 13: Spiriva – Commercial Strength .............................. 29
Table 14: Atrovent/Combivent – Revenue Models .................. 31
Table 15: Atrovent – Commercial Strength............................ 31
Table 16: Combivent – Commercial Strength ......................... 31
Table 17: Singulair – Revenue Model.................................... 33
Table 18: Singulair – Commercial Strength............................ 33
Table 19: Xolair – Revenue Model ........................................ 35
Table 20: Xolair – Commercial Strength ................................ 35
Table 21: Asmanex – Revenue Model ................................... 37
Table 22: Asmanex – Commercial Strength ........................... 37
Table 23: Pulmicort – Revenue Model................................... 39
Table 24: Pulmicort – Commercial Strength........................... 39
Table 25: Flovent – Revenue Model...................................... 41
Table 26: Flovent – Commercial Strength.............................. 41
Table 27: Serevent – Revenue Model ................................... 43
Table 28: Serevent – Commercial Strength ........................... 43
Table 29: Foradil – Revenue Model ...................................... 45
Table 30: Foradil – Commercial Strength .............................. 45
Table 31: Brovana – Revenue Model .................................... 47

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Table 32: Brovana – Commercial Strength ............................ 47
Table 33: Generic albuterol/ProAir HFA/Proventil/
Proventil HFA – Revenue Models.......................................... 49
Table 34: ProAir HFA – Commercial Strength......................... 49
Table 35: Proventil HFA – Commercial Strength ..................... 49
Table 36: Xopenex HFA – Revenue Model ............................. 51
Table 37: Xopenex HFA – Commercial Strength ..................... 51
Table 38: Alvesco Combo/Alvesco – Revenue Models ............. 53
Table 39: Aclidinum – Revenue Model .................................. 55
Table 40: Indacaterol/mometasone + indacaterol – Revenue
Models.............................................................................. 56
Table 41: Flutiform – Revenue Model ................................... 58
Table 42: Asmanex + Foradil – Revenue Model ..................... 60
Table 43: Drugs in Development.......................................... 62
Table 44: Drugs in Development.......................................... 63

Figures
Figure 1: AVOS Asthma and COPD Population Projections
By Year............................................................................... 7
Figure 2: Treatment Decision Tree: Asthma .......................... 14
Figure 3: Treatment Decision Tree: COPD ............................. 15
Figure 4: Physician Product Ratings – Asthma (Scale of 1-9) ... 17
Figure 5: Physician Product Ratings – COPD (Scale of 1-9)...... 17
Figure 6: Timeline of Major Market Events ............................ 23
Figure 7: Advair – U.S. Market Share Forecast ....................... 24
Figure 8: Advair – U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................. 24
Figure 9: Symbicort – U.S. Market Share Forecast.................. 27
Figure 10: Symbicort – U.S. Revenue Forecast ...................... 27
Figure 11: Spiriva – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................... 29
Figure 12: Spiriva – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................... 29
Figure 13: Atrovent/Combivent – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 31
Figure 14: Atrovent/Combivent – U.S. Revenue Forecasts....... 31
Figure 15: Singulair/montelukast – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 33
Figure 16: Singulair/montelukast – U.S. Revenue Forecasts .... 33
Figure 17: Xolair – U.S. Market Share Forecasts..................... 35
Figure 18: Xolair – U.S. Revenue Forecast............................. 35

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Figure 19: Asmanex – U.S. Market Share Forecast ................. 37
Figure 20: Asmanex – U.S. Revenue Forecast........................ 37
Figure 21: Pulmicort – U.S. Market Share Forecast................. 39
Figure 22: Pulmicort – U.S. Revenue Forecast ....................... 39
Figure 23: Flovent – U.S. Market Share Forecast.................... 41
Figure 24: Flovent – U.S. Revenue Forecast .......................... 41
Figure 25: Serevent – U.S. Market Share Forecast ................. 43
Figure 26: Serevent – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................ 43
Figure 27: Foradil – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................... 45
Figure 28: Foradil – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................... 45
Figure 29: Brovana – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................. 47
Figure 30: Brovana – U.S. Revenue Forecast ......................... 47
Figure 31: Albuterol, ProAir HFA, Proventil Line – U.S. Market
Share Forecasts ................................................................. 49
Figure 32: Albuterol, ProAir HFA, Proventil Line – U.S.
Revenue Forecasts ............................................................. 47
Figure 33: Xopenex HFA – U.S. Market Share Forecast ........... 51
Figure 34: Xopenex HFA – U.S. Revenue Forecast.................. 51
Figure 35: Alvesco/Alvesco Combo – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 53
Figure 36: Alvesco/Alvesco Combo – U.S. Revenue Forecasts.. 53
Figure 37: Alcidinium – U.S. Market Share Forecast................ 55
Figure 38: Alcidinium – U.S. Revenue Forecast ...................... 55
Figure 39: Indacaterol/mometasone + indacaterol – U.S.
Market Share Forecasts....................................................... 56
Figure 40: Indacaterol/mometasone + indacaterol – U.S.
Revenue Forecasts ............................................................. 56
Figure 41: Flutiform – U.S. Market Share Forecast ................. 58
Figure 42: Flutiform – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................ 58
Figure 43: Asmanex + Foradil – U.S. Market Share Forecast ... 60
Figure 44: Asmanex + Foradil – U.S. Revenue Forecast .......... 60
Figure 45: Clinical Success Rates of Respiratory Agents:
1990-Present ..................................................................... 61

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