10PF2-Afghanistan Page 1 of 129 www.victorybriefs.




10PF2-Afghanistan Page 3 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com Topic Analysis by Saad Asad Resolved: NATO presence improves the lives of Afghan citizens. Definitions: NATO-North Atlantic Treaty Organization The specific NATO force in Afghanistan is the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf). The largest contributing nations include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germ any, France, Italy, and Canada1. Presence should refer to the status quo. However, it could be argued that presen ce is a different military strategy that still involves NATO. For example, NATO could employ a cou nterterrorism strategy directed at taking out terrorist operatives instead of stabilizing the government. Such a definition could be troublesome because the affirmative would have to spend a si gnificant amount of time creating what the specific scenario is. The lives of Afghan citizens are pretty straightforward. This means stopping ter rorist attacks in the West impacts are excluded. Also, impacts to regional welfare (i.e. Pakistani sec urity) are mitigated. So any impacts outside of Afghan citizens are worthless. The plurality of the word .citizens' indicates NATO presence is improving the ma jority of Afghan citizens' lives. It would be silly for the affirmative to defend it has only imp roved simply two citizens' lives or for the negative to prove that at least two citizens' lives h ave been disrupted. Moreover, the use of word .citizens' instead of .civilians' is interesting. Pres umably, the Taliban are Afghan citizens. There is little doubt that NATO presence is improving their liv es considering they are often a target of Isaf forces. This would be an easy way to prove NATO prese nce is harming the lives of Afghan citizens. On the other hand, this wouldn't be very persuasiv e considering one would be essentially defending the Taliban. Coupled with an argument that NATO p resence is 1 ..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Security_Assistance_Force#Table_of_ ISAF.2FNATO_Contributors.5B 27.5D

they are not UN peacekeepers or NGO's seeking to improve the welfare of the citizens for their own sake.. Ideally. President Obama's election signaled a re-focus from Iraq to Afghanis tan from unjustified war to the . violence retur ned to Afghanistan as the Taliban took back the countryside. all this really leaves out focus on the Afghan civilians. the U. So what has changed since then? And are those changes good for the Afghans? Background: After the September 11 attacks in 2001.good war. Although the number of Al-Qaeda operat ives is estimated to be very low. Isaf has created an endless cycle of violence against Afghan civilians by radicalizing th em in to Taliban and then subsequently killing them.S. The comparison then is pre-2001 Afghanistan to 2010 Afghanistan . plans to stay for the long haul. Soon after U. the U. Conseq uently. Iraq was seemingly in the middle of a civil war unt il the surge allegedly saved the day. Fundamentally . In fact.S pla ns to re-develop the infrastructure of Afghanistan and bring stability to the government.S. the new administration is focusing on a c ounterinsurgency. though. They are mere ly a tool in the West's. af ter these plans as well as some military operations to back them up (i. Isaf is not a humanitarian force. Should this include infrastructure development or simpl e body count? Are less civilian deaths considered an improvement? This also means the negative doe s not necessarily have to prove that NATO presence has generally harmed Afghanistan bu t has simply not improved it. Finally. NATO invoked Article V of its charter th at basically states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on the organization.' After all.e.com radicalizing the native population. In a change of direction from Bush's conventional military strategy. plan of stopping terrorism.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 4 of 129 www. Afghan civilians will give up on the Taliban and support the U. Thus. NATO authorized an invasion of Afghanistan to filter out Al-Qaeda. Obama's troop surge in Af ghanistan). this could be a much more persuasive issue. in order to stem the tide of terrorist operations in the West. However.S.victorybriefs. regime led by Hamid Karzai currently. everything was going swimmingly in A fghanistan or so we thought. or at least the U. the war in Afghanistan was UN and NATO authorized.S. wa ged war in Iraq and the media focus changed.improves' is vague but should probably be concerned with the general welfare of the Afghan citizenry. All the same time. they only bec ame a part of the picture under the new administration's counterinsurgency strategy. Improving the welfare is a means for NATO to st . Now after troop levels dwindled for years while focusing in Iraq. the word .

So at the beginning.op terrorism. the affirmative is at a disadvantage since NATO isn't there to im prove the lives of .

.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 5 of 129 www.com Afghan civilians. Wikileaks released 90.mostly from bombings . the report s aid. . The U. 3. The report said that 223. primarily because of a decrease in airstrikes.013 civilian deaths in the f irst six months of 2009. General McChrystal was replaced with General Petraeus after McChrystal made s ome off-color remarks about Obama in Rolling Stone magazine. of the Afghan deaths were due to U. NATO and other pro-government forces. they are there to secure the lives of their citizens. people say they are too scared to work with NATO forces or the Afghan government because they will then be targeted by insurgents. running a business or any sort of community organizing or political campaigning dangerous Deaths from U.up from 58 percent last year. Ultimately. and Pakistan's ISI are funding the border insurgents known as the Ha qqani Network. said insurgents were responsible for 72 percent of the deaths . Three significant events happene d at this time: 1. This was more than double the same time last year. Soon after. In much of the south. Now. Pakistan.victorybriefs..N. or 18 percent. Congress voted on a military funding bill and over a 100 De mocratic Congressmen opposed the bill. And the risk of att ack makes travel. A UN report released this year detailed the effects of Obama's surge on Afghanis tan as well: According to the U. President Hamid Karzai fired two top officials sympathetic to NATO and replac ed them with officials more sympathetic towards Pakistan. However. or 31 percent.N. there is li ttle strategic change with the replacing of generals. let's flash forward to the summer of 2010.271 Afghans died and 1. Petraeus has stated that the rul es of engagement will remain the same but he will examine their application in the bat tlefield so troops can continue their duties. Instead. he will use reconciliation through the insurgents' backers. 2. or to ju st win America's approval. Admittedly.S. NATO and other pro-government forces dropped in the first six months of 2010. There were 1. report.997 were injured .S. the Taliban are more well armed than the general pu blic knew (heatseeking missiles!). That was down from 310 deaths. durin g the first six months of last year. 1. this is a change i n strategy for Karzai as he has nearly given up on NATO to bring trust to the government throug h military force.000 leaked documents that indicate NATO has not reporte d hundreds of civilian deaths.in the first six months of the year.

com/2010/08/30/1594323/rep-larsen-sees-improvemen ts-in. the same was said for the War in Iraq.2 Now that we understand the background of this ten year war.have registered with the Afghan economic ministry. and the tides may turn in our favor.arabtimesonline. http://www.commondreams. The second is that a NATO withdrawal (which is the logical conclusion of most Con positions) would be disastrous.4 More NGO workers are positive sign as they can help develop the infrastructure o f Afghanistan. the topic is a bit difficult.org/headline/2010/08/10-4 3 . One is th at the NATO presence has actually improved things in Afghanistan. I encouraged the 44 (NATO and partner) countries to dig deep and look at what they can do to staff the training mission. http://www.. NATO chief Anders Fogh Ra smussen said at the end of a two-day conference of defense ministers. but allies mus t deploy more army and police instructors to help Afghan government forces assume responsibility fo r security. The NATO chief believes improvements are happening: The situation in Afghanistan is improving after a difficult year..600 non-government organizations .accounting for 31 percent..com Even so.better known as NGOs . 2 . the increase in NGOs will inevitably spur the cons truction process.com/NewsDetails/tabid/96/smid/414/ArticleID/149190 /reftab/96/t/Nato-chiefpredictsimprovements-in-Afghanistan-after-difficult-year/Default. military leaders said Friday.html . If things have not yet improved.3 Consider also the . Most of the new coming out of Af ghanistan has been grim. PRO: For the pro side.civilian surge' alongside the military surge happening in Afg hanistan: The number of civilian workers has more than doubled in the past year or so. However.bellinghamherald.victorybriefs. and more than 1. we can focus on the issues of the debate more clearly. The two most persuasive arguments for the pro side are also very interrelated. air attacks were the largest single cause of civilian deaths caused by pro-government forces .aspx 4 .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 6 of 129 www. http://www. Larsen said many of them are working in rural areas with trib al elders on everything from economic development to establishing local governing bodies.

There is not enough time and state wages will not rise enough to ma ke the security 5 .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 7 of 129 www. both the well-intentioned and the re ally useful. Those. Additionally." "It is an illusion to think that the Afghan police and army will develop into re spected forces in the near future. Other arguments regarding improvements are more ambiguous. the health sector of Afghanistan has made significant improvements . Additionally.000 children born in Afghanistan. While the word 'withdrawal' has a calming effect in Western countries. This argument will be very persuasive since improvements to the health sector improve the gene ral welfare of Afghan civilians.. (via the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health website.200 households in rural areas in 29 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. it sends a mess age that those in Afghanistan should stand by those who are staying: the Taliban and the drug baro ns. July 2 007)5 Another important point to consider is the disaster that would be caused by a NA TO withdrawal. but the cold hard numbers don't lie: From 2004 to 2006. on average 129 die in the first year o f life (infant mortality rate) and 191 die before reaching the age of five years (under 5 morta lity rate). the health system has shown improvement for many key measures in a majority of provinces. http://zunia. who will fill the financial and power vaccuum when the allies leave . unstable Afghan government.org/post/substantial-improvements-achieved-in-afghanistans-healt h-sector/ .victorybriefs. It could potentially destabilize the region as Iran and Afghanistan prey on the wea k.com Without military security. And there is a high possibility that the Taliban would return to rule and institute their harsh legal system aga in. Previous estimates from UNICEF for the year 2000 place the infant mortality rate in Afghanistan at 165 per one thousand live births and the under 5 mortality rate at 257 per on e thousand live births. these NGOs would not be able to provide essential aid to the Afghanis because of Taliban restrictions. The surveys covered more than 8. Women's rights will vanish as draconian penalties for simple crimes become the norm: "The word 'withdrawal' destroys everything. household surveys implemented by researcher s from Johns Hopkins and the Indian Institute of Health Management Research in late 2006 esti mated that of every 1. in other words. Warlords would inevitably re-emerge to fight for power becaus e President Hamid Karzai would not have the power to sustain his government.

com forces resist corruption and the temptation to ally themselves with those making money from drugs. NATO is not a humanitarian for ce.1518. 6 . http://www.00. one could argue these civilian deaths are only stimulating more violence and terrorism. one of the few independent journalists actively trying to find out what is actually happening in Afghanistan has written some very useful and insightful work on thi s.victorybriefs. Thus. including the indiscriminate air attacks which have killed thousands of Afghans. It may take many years to develop the infrastructure enough for the Afghan people to gain tr ust in the government. It is largely still violent and th e countryside still institutes its draconian legal system.674806.de/international/world/0. Fundamentally. a solution with NATO. Reconciliation may be a better option. a military solution may just be an overall bad option for Afghanis tan. a vicious cycle is created where NATO bombings only create more enemies to bomb. Moreover. tr ibal leaders including the Taliban need to meet with leaders like Hamid Karzai to create a pe aceful solution to the problem. Analysts are arguing NATO is s imply further radicalizing the population: Anand Gopal.."6 CON: The past summer has been rife with news about the woes facing Afghanistan. and as he points out. though. Civilians seeing their brethren being killed are persuaded easily to join the re sistance movement to fight NATO. Additionally. In the meantime. not a vague notion of creating a stable nation-state. Troop presence has hardly changed the nature of Afghanistan. one could argue the counterinsurgency strategy NATO is using is ineffectiv e.spiegel.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 8 of 129 www. the resistance movement only swells. Consequently. NATO may never achieve a stable Afghanistan via this means. A military force is there to a chieve an objective.html . the ranks of the Taliban have been swelled in recent years by rural peasants who have been radicalized as a result of US/NATO brutality. The C on side has a wealth of evidence that civilians are being killed by NATO forces in Afghanist an. Also. they are there to kill not learn about different cultures.

co. http://socialistworker.uk/news/content/view/full/94661 . there will be a lot of focus on the war in Afghanistan." Mr Karzai declared .morningstaronline.victorybriefs.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 9 of 129 www. in some cases. Be sure to look out for more Wikileaks documents and reports from think tanks to buttress your case..org/2009/08/18/should-the-left-call-for-taliban-victor y 8 .8 It will be imperative to constantly update one's evidence in October as war is a fast-changing subject.7 The President of Afghanistan has also criticized the counterinsurgency strategy as ineffective: Afghan President Hamid Karzai has torn into the US-led occupation forces' counte rinsurgency strategy. have substantially moderated their social conservatism in order to build a more broad -based and effective resistance movement.. saying that it has produced nothing but civilian deaths. 7 . because the experience of the last eight years showed that the fight in the vill ages of Afghanistan has been ineffective apart from causing civilian casualties. http://www.com The Taliban are increasingly espousing a strong nationalist message and. Especially since the midterm elections are in November. "There should be a review of the strategy in the fight against terrorism. In a meeting in Kabul with visiting German parliament speaker Norbert Lammert. Mr Karzai insisted that there was a " serious need" to change course.

Iceland. Luxembourg. 18. Her judge. In more detail this is a Western organization made up of 28 independent member countries including the United States. August 8. Czech Republic. Estonia. a local Taliban commander. Finland.10 In all seriousness (al though the YouTube interviews from ISAF are relatively serious). Vol. Shivering in the cold air an d blinded by the flashlights trained on her by her husband's family. New Zealand. Resolved: NATO presence improves the lives of Afghan citizens. Netherlands. If she hadn't run away. Jordan. that she had no choice but to escape.com Topic Analysis by Carol Green The Taliban pounded on the door just before midnight. Poland. she would have died. Azerbaijan. Aisha's brother-in-law held her down while her husband pulled out a knife. demanding that Aisha. Germany. the International Security A ssistance Force which you can friend on Facebook and follow on Twitter. ISAF has troops from Alban ia. Ireland. Issue 6. It happened last year. Time. Hungary. choking on her own blood. Later. Austria. Greece. The commander gave his verdict. First he sliced off her ears . he would tell Ai sha's uncle that she had to be made an example of lest other girls in the village try to do the s ame thing. p20-28. 1 76. Aisha pleaded. she faced her spouse and acc user. Women and the Return of the Taliban. They dragged her to a mountain cleari ng near her village in the southern Afghan province of Uruzgan. Georgia. Then he started on her nose. Italy. b e punished for running away from her husband's house. Norway. The men had left her on the mountainside to die. Denmark.victorybriefs. NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. however the question remains as to whether the quality of life is bett er or worse now that NATO troops are present in Afghanistan. Australia.isa . France. Aisha passed out from the pain but awoke soon after. ignoring her protests that h er in-laws had been abusive. Belgium. 10 ISAF's homepage and links to social-networking can be found at http://www. 9 Reports of human rights abuses are coming out of Afghanistan every day it seems when you read the news.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 10 of 129 www. and men moved in to deliver the punishment. Canada. was unmoved. Bulgaria. Let's evaluate this resolution firs t by looking at some key terms and burdens in the debate. Aryn. Latvia. Croatia. 9 Baker. They beat her. Her in-laws treated her like a slave. when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Lithuania. NATO's p resence in Afghanistan is through their mission known as ISAF. 2010. This didn't happen 10 years ago.


10PF2-Afghanistan Page 11 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com Portugal, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, The former Yugo slav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, and of cour s the United States. According to the ISAF Web site, the mission of the International Security Assist ance Force is focused on security, reconstruction and development, and governance. The site sa y: ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conduc ts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate imp rovements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environm ent for sustainable stability that is observable to the population. 11 The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) that is referenced in the mission stat ement includes the more popularly mentioned Afghan National Army (ANA) as well as the air force . You may also read about the ANP, which is the Afghan National Police. The presence that the resolution reference is not ISAF specifically however, it will be difficult to find NATO presence in Afghanistan that is not a part of ISAF. You may also find a fair amount of literature does not reference NATO or ISAF but rather specific countries. While there is a general oversight by NATO, countries still maintain individual responsibilities as well. When investigating the topic, don't overlook articles that only reference individual countries from the list above. If you can confirm the actors referenced are present in Afghanistan as part of ISAF, th en the evidence relates to NATO presence. Be prepared to defend this against teams who don't und erstand how NATO and it's member countries operate. The next major part of the resolution examines the quality of lives of Afghan ci tizens. I think this is where both the evaluative portion of the resolution lies, aka the burdens in the debate. I also think this is where there will be some debate as to the intent of the resolution and t he scope through which the evaluation is done. The easiest way to evaluate this resolution is are things better now than they we re pre-NATO presence? It is clear and concise and requires Pro and Con teams to examine the b efore and 11 ISAF Mission, http://www.isaf.nato.int/mission.html

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 12 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com after effects of external force on the country's citizens. A no-brainer, right? I doubt most debaters will take the time to examine both worlds in order to provide the complete analy sis. If you can structure your case and burdens to set this world up, I think you will be one st ep ahead of the game. It makes the most sense because you are discussing a world of improvement. In this context you need to know what the status quo was before NATO presence in order t o evaluate the changes that have occurred and whether they are an improvement. More than likely, debaters will spout off a list of good things that are happeni ng now or bad things that are happening now. This will allow you to debate the current quality of lif e but will ignore the key term improves which is one of only eight words in the resolution. I would disc ourage those of you reading this to direct your cases this way. It is going to end up being a murkier debate because you lack the clarity of what has gotten better or worse and instead will weigh some issues of varying importance against each other with no real value framework or timeline to help structure your arguments. Finally, ensure that the improvement of Afghan citizens lives directly relates t o the values of these citizens. For example, if you find evidence that discusses the number of compute rs increasing in Afghanistan, weigh it out next to the election fraud that was accused on Septemb er 19, 2010 and see how it really measures out prior to putting it in your case. Too many times, resolutions like this one work out to be laundry lists of good or bad things that are happening withou t consideration of what the other side of the debate is going to say. You have the ability to chang e the course of the debate with your initial case (it does make up about a tenth of the debate) by p reemptively calculating impacts in the construction of the contentions. One more word of warning, if you debated the Afghanistan topic in January, you s hould know that it will be about nine months later when you debate this topic. This word of warn ing may seem silly, but I am wiling to bet some teams will do very little updating to their files. I t happened on the April 2010 topic when teams recycled evidence from the April 2009 topic, which wasn't especially applicable to the change in type of unions being debated. In this case, a lot ha s changed including leadership changes and approaches in Afghanistan. Citing evidence from before 2010, unless it is a comparative reflection used to gauge the improvement or reduction in the quality of citizens' lives, is ill advised as things are constantly changing. While finaliz ing the edits to this paper, I was reading news reports from only hours before that I felt needed to b e included on the

recent election. If I am editing this paper hours before submission, you should be updating your cases and files right up until the debate round starts.

First. And finally. literacy becomes a majo r challenge in training and education and even performance of the basic skills required by a pr ofessional security force. Literacy prevents bad actors from preying on the illiterate.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 13 of 129 www.com There are a few areas of the debate I want to look at today with some reflection on how it might ultimately help on one side of the debate or the other. This skill addresses three more pressing issues to professionalism. If a soldier cannot read.grade officers a nd leaders that are the backbone of this force and that in fact will one day lead this army and poli ce force. how can he read and understand the serial number on his own weapon? Literacy allows personnel to provide oversight for all aspects of the force. regulations to training.victorybriefs. you are familiar with the debate about whether this f orce will be able to function on it's own. When you consider the average literacy rate for an entry-level soldier or police man in Afghanistan is maybe about 14 to 18 percent across the entire force. liter acy provides the ability to enforce accountability. but the general public in Afghanistan. The second element is the literary of soldiers and policemen. up the chain o f command as . military intelligence and communications -. Let's first examine the ANP and how it has historically been a struggle for the growth and stability of this security force in Afghanistan. standards can be published and everyone can be held accountable to adhere to them. maintenance. If you debated the January topic. we must take that on. When the force is literate. If we want to develop a professional force. The second challenge literacy addresses is developing branch competency through professional military education. General Caldwell discusses the approaches that ISAF is taking to help train the troops and recognizes an important social issue that is facing not onl y the police force. fro m equipment to personnel. literacy combats corruption within the Afghan National Security For ce.skills that are required in a professional force to sustain themselves in the field and throughout their career. Literacy provides soldiers and policemen the ability to atte nd these schools and learn enabling skills such as logistics. Lt. It's the essential enabler. These are skills that must also be ingrained in junior and mid. how can he know wha t equipment he is supposed to have and to maintain? If a policeman does not know his numbers.

reconstruction efforts have largely bypassed women and gi rls. U. These teams will need to establish the pre. A fter nine years and $300 billion.S. Commanding General of NATO Training Missi on in Afghanistan.victorybriefs. there is still an improvement in the quality of life for women. 2010. . only one is a girls' school. told a joint hearing o f Senate Foreign Relations subcommittees recently. Lt. the central Uruzgan province in Afghanistan has 220 schools. 13 Sahoo. April 6. While I want to expl ore the problems that exist for women. I think that a strong Pro team will be able to ar gue that while things are bad. General William B. But this will take time and it is a sustained effort if we are to educate an entire generation of Afghans to the level necessary to create a professional force with leaders that allow fo r the specialization to occur that is essential to their future development. the chairwoman of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission in Kabul. Through the creation of mandatory literacy courses in the past nine months. we h ave supported the professionalization of the Afghan National Security Force and educated many students. . McClatcy Washington DC News Bureau. Women not only continue to lack access to healthcare and education. August 23. Of that. They continue to confront pervasive violence and early marriages. Sananda. And only w hen they read how much they are owed and how much they have received will they be able to prevent the theft of their own pay.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 14 of 129 www.and post-NATO analysis in case in order to effectivel y combat Con arguments that conditions are poor for women in Afghanistan. News Briefing on Operations in Afghanistan. but onl y 21 of them function. . However.com well as down. Afghan Women Stil l Struggle. Despite Reports of Progress. Literacy allows soldiers and policemen to prevent theft of their pay. women continue to fair poorly under NATO presence.' Officially. but they also lack legal protections. FDCH Political Transcripts.' Sima Samar. 12 Caldwell shows how this issue is being addressed amongst the military and traini ng forces. in the provincial capital.Recognize the women in Afghanistan--that we exist. 2010.The lack of mention and recognition b y the United States and the international community of women's rights allow Afghan men in (a) different state institution to continue to ignore women's rights. 13 12 Caldwell IV.

com One argument that Con teams should evaluate when building their thesis is whethe r the current government is leaning towards allowing Taliban rule again in some areas of Afgha nistan. with Russian citizens facing the brunt of the drug sales . .victorybriefs. and to not refuse sex whe n her husband wants it.S. surpassing the traditional global leader. Russia and NATO have run a school for Afghan anti-drug police i n the Moscowregion town of Domodedovo. turning out hundreds of graduates. and reports from Russia claim tha t current approaches are failing. .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 15 of 129 www. If you debated in January. But despite that cooperat ion. hopes that Karzai will push a bill in parliament on the eliminatio n of violence against women. experts say Moscow is increasingly dubious about NATO's ability to impose order in Afghanistan. Current repor ts suggest that the government is in negotiations with the Taliban but discourages the Taliban f rom continuing its support of terrorist organizations. as well as the government's continued alliance with warlords a nd Taliban leader Mullah Omar. 14 I would encourage Con teams to continue to investigate the treatment of women as well as what is happening with the Taliban influence in the current government.We do not believe the principal aims of the NATO security operation in Afghanist an have been achieved. While the U. to "dress up" for her husband when demanded. despite NATO's continued presence in the country.Of course the struggle against te rrorism should take precedence. and may be seeking ways to expand its influence in Central Asia against the day the United States decides to leave. . NATO has taken several approac hes over the years to the poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. create a hostile environment for women in Afghanistan. A new law that requires a woman to ask permission to leave the house except on u rgent business. you may remember debates about the sales of drugs in order to finance terrorism. but what about liquidating drug production? How does it happen that almost 10 years after NATO occupied this country. Afghanistan is not only the world's larg est producer of opium. rights activists said they doubt the president's commitment. but also of hashish. Morocco?' In recent years.' Ivanov said at a press conference. Some analysts suggest that the Kremlin's recent backing of a coup in 14 Ibid. Recent legislation suggests anti-female influences in the Afghanistan government are re versing the progress that NATO advanced.

Hamid Karzai.. They promised that foreign support for the next parliamentary election. the envoys said. . I think we will see a lot of Con team s saying that the drug war is bad. would 15 Weir.' says Tatiana Pa rkhalina. However. director of the independent Center for European Security in Moscow.The former Soviet states of central Asia are our own backyard. A primary goal of NATO's ISAF was to institute a democratic government and have free elections for the citizens to choose their leadership. Fred. . May 19. . 2010.. it is a primary crop in Afghanistan and thus the income may improve the quality of lives of those communities. I encoura ge teams to keep an open mind when examining the growth and sales of these narcotics keeping in mind whose quality of life the resolution asks you to evaluate. isn't just that the drug war isn't un der control. due in S eptember.Moscow doesn't want to stand by while the Taliban and terrorist networks convert the financial resources from dr ug trafficking into arms and political influence. but also that neighboring countries are growing unsettled with NATO's mission. Says US Not Pushing Drug War in Afg hanistan. oversaw fraud on an epic scale and handed a propaganda coup to the Taliban. Moscow Furious. There is a potential for these countries to act in ways that would incite more violence and instability i n the region.' 15 One concern. highlighted in this evidence. Ever since the aftermath of last year's disastrous presidential election in Afgha nistan. and it is a very big threat.victorybriefs. remember that the evidence above discusses the negativ e implications for Russian citizens and not Afghan citizens. Western diplomats have been talking tough about the need for thorough reform of the coun try's rotten electoral system.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 16 of 129 www. When faced with the issue of the drug war. it seems as though the past couple of elections have been fraught with fraud. There is a practical alliance taking shape betwe en drug traffickers and terrorists. Christian Science Monitor. while there have bee n elections.com Kyrgyzstan could be a sign of more assertive behavior to come. would foreign governments pour c ash into a machine that was controlled by the president. Unfortunately. A good Con team may be able to build this narrative into a strong contention. One thing to keep in mind is that while Western cultures may see the negative implications of drug use. Never again.

That prerogative is now to be held exclusively by Mr Karzai . 17 Karon. p48-50. the body that organized the voting. it ordered the disqualification of nearly 1m votes that had gone to Mr Ka rzai in the presidential election. The Taliban was the previous government in Afghanistan and should not be conflated with terrorist or ganizations that it 16 February 27.-led NATO alliance.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 17 of 129 www. But all the main stakeholders in Afghanistan know that the contest a mong the politicians who ran in Saturday's election is of marginal significance.S. It leaves the IEC en tirely unreformed. it strips the United Nations of the power to appoint the majority of t he ECC's independent members. And the numerous fraud allegations mean that the results of the parliamentary election m ay not be known for months. They also said that he would not be allowed to weaken the Electoral Complaints C ommission (ECC). Tony. but I do see ways in which you can d o preemptive work to reduce the negative impact of the elections argument on the Con. Time.time. Vol.6 million votes cast on Saturday was the lowest tally of the four elections held since 2001 is a testament to the resurgence of the Taliban insurgency. Bullets Trump Ballots in Deciding Afghanista n's Future.com/time/world/article/0. Played for Fools.00. September 20.victorybriefs. http://www.com depend on a cull of dodgy officials from the Independent Election Commission (IE C). Mr Karzai's response to these foreign entreaties came this week with the publica tion of a presidential decree. a watchdog that has been controlled by a majority of non-Afghan officials . 2010. Citing largescale fraud. 394. 17 Remember that earlier in the analysis I said it would be important to examine th e role that the Taliban has begun to play and will probably continue to play in Afghanistan. the key political contest that will shape Afghanistan's future is being waged between the Taliban insurgency an d the U. It would be hard for a Pro team to dispute the corruption and violence that have occurred.8599. 2010. Moreover. The fact that the 3. 16 The corruption has also been coupled with low voter turnout in the most recent e lection in September 2010. The question in the debate then should be whether a low-turnout and possible corruption in an election is better than no election. Economist. Issue 8671.html . Most felt that Mr Karzai should lose the right to app oint its chairman and leadership board.2020245. issued while parliament was in recess. whose att acks on poll workers and candidates forced more than 1 in 6 polling stations to remain closed . And it's not going very well for the Western coalition.

with the Taliban likely to end up as the dominant political authority in the Pashtun south and east. is the strength of the ANP. both the ANA and the ANP have exceeded their 20 10 growth goals about three months ahead of schedule. the Afghan government is in talks with the Taliban to n egotiate regions of control for the prior. . which is important to the NATO mission. it was an oppressive government and I would e ncourage debaters to examine what life was like under Taliban rule. and to accept that it will not be able to restor e its theocratic rule over the whole country some form of power sharing would be inevitable.com is accused of supporting. This turnaround is attributable to a dramatically changed approach to training t hat we've taken with the Afghan National Security Force and a new sense of urgency within the Af ghan Ministries of Defense and Interior.000 this year. Caldwell addressed these concerns in a recent press conference where he assured the media that the military has grown and become more self-reliant. 18 Ibid. Again.victorybriefs. the debate in Januar y was whether this force would grow considering the alarming desertion rates and low morale amongst soldiers. 18 The final area. as recent evidence su ggests that despite NATO's presence. This growth of the Afghan National Security Force in the first half of 2010 is l arger than at any year in its history. Most of the region's main players. including President Karzai himself. has already begun via discreet talks . with our numbers right now at 58.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 18 of 129 www. The growth has been so dramatic. are operat ing on the assumption that the only plausible endgame for the war in Afghanistan is some fo rm of political settlement with the Taliban and reports from the region suggest that the pursuit of such a settlement. While I provide the sp ecific evidence from Caldwell. The bottom line in such a settlement would be for the Taliban to agree to prevent territory unde r its control from being used to export terrorism. Pro teams will need to explain why a strong self-reliant military force helps to improve the lives of Afghan citizens. However. In the past nine months alone. the growth in the army and police has more than do ubled the average of any previous year. and in many ways links t o the earlier analysis about literacy. with Pakistan acting as broker.

First . Some of these casualties come from the controversial air strikes that have led t o Afghan government protests. 20 Davies. as per the evidence I provided.to better tailor recruitment to the needs of the Afghan people. General William B. as recorded in the logs. 2010. In fact.com The Afghan leadership has taken complete ownership to increase recruiting. killing a wedding party including a pregnant woman. in sometimes harrowing vignettes. wounding eight. there may have been more civilian casualties than previously reported: The logs detail. by intelligenc e analysts.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 19 of 129 www. in an apparent revenge attack.victorybriefs. August 23. include the day Fr ench troops strafed a bus full of children in 2008. I expect teams on the Con will make the argument that NATO has killed civi lians. The Guardian. Nick. News Briefing on Operations in Afghanistan. 19 The one area that I have overlooked. . A US patrol similarly machine-gu nned a bus. which I think is a good argument t o counter NATO19 Caldwell IV. but a large number of previously unknown incidents also app ear to be the result of troops shooting unarmed drivers or motorcyclists out of a determinatio n to protect themselves. reduc e attrition. 2010. At least 195 civilians are admitted to have been killed and 174 wounded in total . and in 2007 Polish troops mortared a v illage. July 26. 20 A few words of caution on the casualties' debate before the debates begin. perhaps intentionally. Massive Leak of Secret Files Exposes True Afghan War. FDCH Political Transcripts. but this is likely to be an underestimate as many disputed incidents are omitted from the daily sna pshots reported by troops on the ground and then collated. This includes the creation of recru iting commands to oversee efforts across Afghanistan to measure -. p1. and improve retention over the last nine months. that it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly how many civilians have died at the hands of NATO troops. The logs reveal 144 su ch incidents. according to recent evidence. Commanding General of NATO Training Missi on in Afghanistan. wounding or killing 15 of its passengers. Bloody errors at civilians' expense. I also think it will be difficult to compare this numb er to the number of civilians killed at the hands of the Taliban. is the civilian casu alties caused by NATO. sometimes erratically. the toll on civilians exacted by coalition forces: events termed "blue on white" in military jargon. I think. Lt.

incl ude current evidence. Finally. that the Pro team can prove those benefits. and structure your case in a pre-NATO and NATO presence evaluation.victorybriefs. Good luck! . as unfortunate as that is. of course. Remind your judges that while those impacts are indeed tr agic.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 20 of 129 www. the resolution only asks us to evaluate the imp act on the lives of the citizens of Afghanistan. I think you will be very successful on the topic. I think that there will always been some loss of life in a war zone. and maybe you can debate them another day. Provided. This topic should be a fun one. If you can maintain control of that debate. and I think that Con teams will have a hard time winning that the loss of some lives during a military conflict outweighs the benefits of the military con flict. Remember to consider whose eyes the resolution i s being viewed through. so don't let other te ams derail you from the intent of the wording. Does NATO presence improve the lives of Afghan citizens. It doesn't mat ter if it causes terrorist attacks or drug use in other parts of the world.com caused deaths.

And not in any kind of narrow way. a corrupt parliamentary democracy still seems to me to be a better choice than a theocracy governed by intolerant maniacs. The security argument is. The only argument that I can think of that might be broad based and still persuasive relates to the cor ruption of the Karzai regime but even then. In the pre-9/11 world. tactics of governments. A negative case position will probably be dependent on the negative team framing the round in a particular way and evaluating the quality of life for the small subsections of i ndividuals whose lives haven't dramatically improved at least potentially by NATO's on going oper ations there. More on this later. if medieval. in my opinion.com Topic Analysis by Ryan Hamilton I think this is a great topic it will reduce the instances in which debaters jus t get to fire competing statistics at each other and force them to thoughtfully consider stand ards that can't be measured by mathematicians and that must be debated conceptually it will also en courage debaters to weigh between the competing standards that they use to evaluate the quality of life in Afghanistan. First. they just operated as the monopoly on coercive force and used more traditional. When I first read the topic my reaction was something like this: what sort of to pic is this? Of course the lives if Afghans are improved by the presence of NATO. The Taliban couldn't even contr ol the whole of Afghanistan. their tools have just changed. and average citizens were probably just as fearful of Taliban agent s then as they are now.victorybriefs.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 21 of 129 www. Across nearly every spectrum of quality by which a reasonable person might evaluate their life. A team should pick one standard by which we can measure a q uality of life. N ow they resort to the mainstream Islamic terrorist tactics of civilian bombings and thuggery. NATO action in Afghanistan has yielded economic improve ments and opportunities for the local population. NATO action in Afghanistan has p rovided a significant boon to political freedoms and the protection of individuals by the law. and then develop it through out the round. a wash. There are two main themes that I thin k will bear fruit for affirmatives. it is important to not go for too much. Second. NATO has been a more or less unbridled blessing for Afghans Even those who are suspicious of applying broad based standards to judge the quality of a person's life can be . I think that when constructing an affirmative case positio n. Bearing that in mind.

comforted by the fact that Afghans now have more options than probably at any ot her time in their history to decide and direct the course of their own lives: this is particularly true for women and .

chances are it was banned. either in fact. it didn't have the desire to build anything but madrassas. So let's look at the way case positions can unfol d. and Pakistan) for the first time in nearly two decades has access to international m oney that it can use to finance public works projects roads to facilitate commerce. We can be honest. This same brand of Islam occupied a place of prominence under the Afghan king and nev er disappeared under the Soviet's puppet government. What I mean to say here is that Afghanistan wa s. t he UAE.victorybriefs. and an increase in the drug trade. This sort of antisocial behavior isn't shined on in the international community. Secondly. if you can t hink of it. e xceeded. There is great irony to be found. too: improvement wasn't hard to come by in the Taliban's Afghanistan. NATO has a very low threshold to meet if they want to be consi dered to have improved the lives of Afghans one that has been easily met. the impacts are very simple and require no complex explan ation. since being whipped in public was one of the few times that a woman could have any kind of life outside of the home at all.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 22 of 129 www. who have long suffered under the brutal and wholly unforgiving yoke of . They had few ma jor trading partners with even less to trade.improve' the Taliban didn't have the ability to fund any kind of infrastructure development. the country has greater recourse to modern banking instruments that allow them t o finance private and public ventures that create wealth in a society in desperate need of it. restricted. As a whole. Women were whipped in public if they showed the arousing body part taboo even to us in the West: the ankle. and if you ask me. either. and schools to education children. This argument has a couple of advant ages: first. Music was banned. and remains a real fixer-upper. sewage to reduce rates of disease. charges by suspected terrorists of torture and mis treatment. here.com minorities. This supplements the political claims in two ways: first. No soccer. it easily links to a historical context that validates the relative meaning of the word . The affirmative has all of this from which to construct arguments and the negati ve has very little beyond some petty corruption. and even if it had the ability.extremist' Islam which was the de jure government before NATO operations in the form of the Taliban. . Here exists a clear link back into improvement. Affirmatives can argue that the lives of Afghans have been improved economically . or you could be put to death for it. the government (the Taliban was never recognized as the legitimate government of Afghanistan except by Saudi Arabia. A person would be put to death for adultery.

. nor do they have to empty their own chamber pot s into a street full of human excrement.People's lives are dramatically improved by common applications of technology th at makes existence here on Earth easier. No longer do they have to trudge through muddy f ields to trade their wares in the next village.

The argument should be rooted in the historical context.com Secondly. namely blankets and rugs that not only generate ta xation to support the sort of infrastructure development mentioned above but create jobs and provi de an income for Afghans that doesn't come from poppy fields or terrorism. for a successful affirmative. They were denied medical treatment on the basis of proclamations from some Mullah on high that do ctors who were not close relatives of women would not be able to touch them. The quicker Afghans re ach a particular level of wealth. More to the point. These ar e probably compelling arguments that will appeal to most public forum judges. the same sort of banking instruments that secures the public's assets give the ability for individuals to borrow capital to finance their own private ventures Afghanistan is famous for exporting beautiful textiles. connected to the relative nature of the word i mprove NATO operations uprooted the Taliban the relative status of the country now should be . the more they have vested in the temporal world. with no public existence of which to speak. A richer Afghanistan has the potential to reduce terrorist vi olence and provide sufficient disposable income to allow for leisure time where learning. culture. It was particularly brutal under the Taliban. This includes arguments about political enfra nchisement and minority protections. An edict was made that windows . that people have a greater degree of autonomy than they had under the Taliban (or at any other point in time in the history of Afghanistan) and th ey have better protections under the rule of law.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 23 of 129 www. compared constantly to the hell on Earth created by that group of ne'er do wells. the less likel y it seems that they're willing to take up arms in defense of an inheritance only gained after d eath in the presence of Allah. The only reason that anyone in Afghanistan has the potential to embark down the path of financial success is because of the recognition brought by the NATOsupported Karzai administration and the funds secured by that administration from NATO countries Deutsche Welle reports that in 2009 alone Germany pledged $78 million on Afghanistan in foreign aid. Women were mor e or less relegated to the status of chattel. A lot of the most compelling literature will come about the treatment of women i n Afghanistan if for no other reason than women make up approximately half of the population. and various pursuits of pleasure take place. the ir treatment warrants attention.victorybriefs. which were previously nonexistent in Afghanistan. the affirmative can argue that the lives of individuals have been improved politically which is to say.

wel .should be painted so that men would not have to see women in their own homes l. the list goes on and on.

But that doesn't mean that negatives are totally left out to dry. and they have a lot less to fear from local authorities. whether they agree or not. rooted within a historical context an d include a relative referent to ground the term . with f ull participation of minorities in their society. Mar ia Curie. allowed him to live on.improve. The Iranian governme nt Iran is the only Shia majority Islamic country got so fed up with the treatment of the S hia minority in Afghanistan that they began actively aiding the Northern Alliance. supported by NATO. The Taliban. mostly rural folk who live in areas still under the control of the Mullah Omar. or Lady GaGa? The more NATO authorities push inclusion in Afghan society. and to a great extent. Need less to say. represents none of this. the Taliban responded by occupying the Iranian consul in Mazar-e-Sharif and executed the Iranian diplomats. compelling. death. What's more the people of Afghanistan benefit. decreeing that this was the will of Allah. The debate jus t has to be framed in a way that doesn't rely on such broad-based impact scenarios. it seems that the accused was badly wounded but sur vived. An a rticle from the 2002 Kandahar Journal recounts how many alleged homosexual contact ended in a wall be ing toppled on the accused. The links are direct. Even if the negative is winning arguments abou t the corruption of the Karzai regime. In an act tha t can be called nothing if not consistent. this did not allow any kind of meaningful sexual expression in public which is still most ly the case but most sources indicate that small gatherings of at least gay men have started to form.com Sexual minorities were also huge targets. The only thin . still are.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 24 of 129 www. The NATO led force's occupation of Afghanistan and the subsequent Karzai government.' If I were a betting man and I am I would wager than nearly 75% of rounds will be won by affirmatives. it is at the very least not as expansive or powerful as th e Taliban in its ability to punish those who violate the never-ending stream of prohibitions that used to exist in Afghanistan. and tor ture. Where would the West be without Elizabeth I. the more their lives stand to improve.victorybriefs. All of these stories combine to create a pretty stark picture: that the Taliban was a regime that was focused on repression and death that the joys of life were denied to nearly all citizens and those who broke the law were met with physical abuse. An even more unique story to tell during your round is the improvement in the li ves of Shia Muslims. In one case. They were persecuted brutally by the Sunni Talibs. amputation. Negatives might want to target particular groups of people who haven't seen any of the benefits mentioned above .

g that NATO has brought to their country is war. The Taliban isn't a friendl y foe they sent a . death. and turmoil.

which were the source of the problem all al ong. a lot of what made Afghanistan fertile ground for a Wahabi-ist g overnment hasn't changed. This caused a run on the ba nk and nearly collapsed Kabul's financial system. Wide spread rumors of election fraud taint any argum ents about the iron clad rule of law in Afghanistan. im proved. The NATO op eration has done very little to change the attitudes. and hasn't done a very good job securing the lives and property for the average Afghan citizen. is seeing a resurgence and the f unding from the illicit drugs that poor into the United States and other western countries funds not just the Taliban insurgency. religious intoleran ce all of these things haven't just disappeared over night. The Bank of Kabul's leadership has just had to step down after they made risky loans on real-estate to politically connected individuals. and in a significant minority of c ases they are ones the perpetrating criminals. the tribal power structure often times does. It doesn't end there. they hung him on a light pole outside of the UN's complex in Kabul as a warning. and corruption are part of the daily life in Afghanistan. if not the country's. Many political factions notably the Taliban refuse to participate in the e lectoral process altogether.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 25 of 129 www. the Shia they still exist in large part. A close evaluation of what is happening in Afghanistan will be necessary to any case the important thing to remember is that arguments must be rooted in the context of t he NATO intervention and subsequent reconstruction of Afghanistan and the relative quali . extortion. The Karzai government is woefully corrupt. though in part because there were no projects to finance and no fun ds available to them. nearly eradicated under the Talibs. but terrorist groups world wide.victorybriefs. The Pashtun tribal leaders are still radically devoted to an extremist sect of Islam and while the government no longer exercises the sort of theocratic power that it di d under the Taliban. progressive Afghan society. None of this would hav e happened under the Taliban. gays. One can only imagine how they treat lower ranks of NATO collaborators. And in reality. sexual expression. This is a good way to counter Elysium claims from affirmatives about the new. village raids. The reality is that the same conditi ons that plagued women. In many cases t he authorities in Afghanistan are only the authorities in name. and repudiate any notion of political expr ession through the vote. The poppy crop. Crime is out of control a nascent form of Afghani institutionalized pederasty. except now suicide bombing s. Gender roles. known in the local language as bacha bazi h as returned.com squad to torture and kill President Najibillah in their struggle for power in th e 90s and once he'd passed.

Perhaps the af firmative side .ty of life that Afghans have as compared to the last known referent. The Taliban.

2003. As Russell Kirk said. The Conservative Mind.com isn't as heavily favored to win as I thought when I set out writing this brief w hat makes a society in reality isn't what government it happens to have inflicted upon it at any giv en time."21 21 Kirk. . [others] however know that France remains France w hether it is ruled by Louis XIV or by Robespierre. "[some] tend to forget the influence of national tradition or local p olitical habits upon even revolutionary movements. Russell. Ed. Conservatism in America Since 1930. New York City: New York UP. Schneider.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 26 of 129 www. G regory L. the Russia of Conrad's Under Western Eyes.victorybriefs. beneath the surface. 107-121. and the Russia of Stalin is still.

That is to say that there's an argument to be made that any actions occurring in Afghanistan by a NATO member country should result in NATO getting credit or blame for the act. Wh at is happening in Afghanistan. is being able to isolate specific effects that NATO has had in general. NATO's own web site summarizes why it's there22: 22 .com Topic Analysis by Dan Meyers This is not a topic about the militarized efforts by the world in Afghanistan. articles that tal k about US-led NATO operations or NATO praise for New Zealand's assistance. one could argue that on NATO ordered operation s merit discussion in the round. With troops from a mul titude of countries and organizations with ongoing operations in Afghanistan determining who is to c redit or blame for anything will be quite tricky. in a very real sense. The Difficulties The single greatest challenge you will have. All these arguments. I. at times. there was an election in Afghanistan on Sept ember 18. II.000 troops deployed in military operat ions for NATO. could change entirely between the time I write this topic analysis and when you even debate a round. Presence NATO is. for example. Your job is to focus on the effect of NATO efforts on the Afghan people . and the role that NATO may or may not have played will all play out over the coming weeks. I t is not a topic about the implications of coordinating over 140. You will find. Conversely. and many mo re that aren't coming to mind right now. For example. I realize this is a sort of norm for many PF topics. are intriguing. and therefore the direction of the topic. The Wording A. but this could be a new experience for many. It is not a topic about the general efficacy of NATO. but they are not what you will be deba ting throughout October. its democratic legitimacy. present in several different ways. be impossible to i dentify what role NATO has or had in those efforts. The effects of this election.victorybriefs. regardless of the side you are deba ting. This means that you need to keep up on the news regularly. Given the amalgam of countr ies with both independent and NATO coordinated roles it may. Another sticky point of the resolution may be its change while being debated.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 27 of 129 www.

but it is also something that i s not stable. It seems reasonable to use these as sub-topics to examine in terms of improving the lives of Afghan citizens. I don't think it's that simple. That is. Improves You may dismiss the central role of this word at first glance and think that the topic can merely be read as NATO is good/bad for Afghanistan.htm .victorybriefs.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_8189. paving the way for reconstruction and effective governance. This is all to say that you may have to fight to make your arguments matter in w ays that you are not accustomed to. http://www. To investigate this you will want to look into the efficacy of ISAF Pr ovincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs).. Not only is the idea of improvement something that is highly subjective. improving and supporting governance. given the contentious political and security situations at play in Afghanist an it is very hard to say that action X by organization Y tangibly improved life in Afghanistan on bal ance. NATO goes on to clarify exactly what the mission of the ISAF is. The present tense nature of improves may end up forcing a more short-term focus on the results of NATO efforts a what have you done for me latel y approach.nato. III. It is quite likely that a security mission undertaken by NATO forces resulted in several dea ths. How is one to evaluate that within the resolution given the diff erent interests at play? Furthermore.com NATO's main role in Afghanistan is to assist the Government of the Islamic Repub lic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) in exercising and extending its authority and influence acro ss the country. ISAF is tasked with improving security and stability in Afghanistan. The Issues A. but did secure an area. supporting reconstruction and development. and it's not sm all. B.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 28 of 129 www. and fighting rampant narcotics problems. NATO actions surely hav e both immediate and ongoing implications. as is the case with any military operation. NATO does t his predominantly through its United Nations-mandated International Security Assista nce Force (ISAF). The Government .

it is unlikely that the results will be declared official by the ambiti ous due date at the end of that month. In fact over twenty-five percent of al l the ballots cast in 2009 were declared fraudulent.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 29 of 129 www. The state is a mess at the highe st levels.com A large aspect of the NATO mission in Afghanistan is helping to establish a stab le liberal government. As you probably know. as Karzai prefers to operate off the record. There are frequently offensive exchanges between these two parties. In the meantime Taliban insurgent efforts have been the focal point for NATO operations. Unfortunately this means that Taliban influence as we ll as influence from regional powers (primarily Iran) are likely to increase in the coming months. Unfortunately. The problem.victorybriefs. that Karzai will end up with a greater ability to push his agenda with little resistance. To make matters worse the new Parliament is likely to be so fractured. shortly after the 9/11 attacks the US launched offensive efforts in Afghanistan that helped to topple the Taliban regime. Since 2001. In some ways gridlock will only help in that rega rd. It is very difficult to say who is at fault for any of these civilian casualties. that does not seem to be happening. This means that. is the collateral damage that often results. In that election appr oximately 6 million ballots were cast. from the perspective of the average Afghan. The picture should start coming into focus now. Many of the Karzai's opponents and their followers still argue that Kar zai is an illegitimate president undeserving of leading Afghanistan. Insurgents You will see that the term insurgent is used interchangeably with terrorist. because of the la ck of organization of the political parties in Afghanistan. While the initial results of this election will not be ma de public until early October. given the legal battles that are likely to occur . A parliamentary election for 250 seats just occurred. Late in 2001 Hamid Karzai was installed as the leader of the new democratic regime. The Tal iban once controlled Afghanistan in a legally supported way. that it is quite plausible that the new Parliament will not be in place until the end of 2010 or maybe later. Last year Karzai was reelected under a great deal of suspicion of fraud. Stories feature all the common fraud tactics ranging from ballots stuffing t o bribery and everything in between. they have operate d at the margins seeking to grow support at the grass-roots level in the hopes of making their wa y back into the government. This lowered Karzai's vote count by nearl y thirty-three percent. The claims of voter fraud are already pouring in. B. A bit of history first will help put things in perspective. What is e asy to say is that with .

the growing number of civilian deaths. . public support for NATO efforts wanes.

but the Taliban leadership claims the opposite.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 30 of 129 www. from the very beginning. That is. While it is true that Afghanistan security forces have gradually bee n trained to take over for NATO forces (and have increasingly been doing just that). With the US closing up shop in Iraq and shifting General David Petraeus to head up forces in Afghanistan.com At the same time. the strength of the Taliban may be growing. This all comes in adva nce of a major NATO summit regarding the future of the organization's role in Afghanistan set f or November. The goal. Approaches to Casing In terms of how you construct your cases. NATO leaders claim to be winning the war on terror in that r egard. Shrinking International Presence NATO has had some sort of day-to-day presence in Afghanistan for nearly ten year s now. The reality seems to be that unless the Taliban are pushed out of Afghanistan al l together security cannot be said to be entirely established. C. the debate will come down to a question of framing. one is left to wonder what role the US plans. The reality seems to that while it is ha rd to tell whether Taliban numbers are increasing. A prime example of this is that while acts of violence during the recent election were down. have started minimizing their financial and troop commitments. what is required for th e Pro to win (or the Con for that matter) may take center stage. feeling the financial crunch of the global market c risis. will the NATO withdrawal be premature? Already many NATO countries. however. . There are conflict ing narratives at work on this issue. is a near impossi bility regardless of NATO efforts. the me re threat of violence (there was a rather large campaign of threats leading up to election day promoti ng the idea that anyone with the ink from voting on their fingers would lose that finger) seemed to be quite effective given the drastic fall in voter turnout. IV. For me. The question seems to be. was to help stabilize the country so that it coul d successfully stand on its own. While little of this is may make for a round-winning argument. understanding the issues at play in this contentious situation is of central importance. Many liberal commentators in Afghanistan forecast that many would not risk harm and would rather avoid voting all together.victorybriefs. it is easier to see that their influence grows. I want to share some specific thoughts . That goal.

. For e xample. do we need to weig h the good NATO has accomplished with the bad and decide what the net effect is? If not.Are there any absolute rules that must be followed? Not by you.What's the time frame? How far back and. Here are the questions y ou may need to answer (and should at least think about) in your rounds. my advice is to pick one or two of these kinds of argume nts and develop them well while starting (the earlier the better) to tell the framework story.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 31 of 129 www. . at first blush. how far forwa rd matters? A. you should start hedging against the most common Con arguments as early as possi ble. then th e result is that ANY good accomplished by NATO may be sufficient for the Pro to win. is taking hold and with it come some more rights . how does one compare unlike impacts? .victorybriefs. that means the best Pro approaches will take a long-view approach to the framing topic the question to account for the last ten years. You have a lot of truth on your side in making those arguments. though it may be a bit corrupt. For me.com Here's a prime example: Pro is winning arguments about how NATO has helped minim ize terrorist activities (presumably saving lives of Afghan citizens).Is the resolution a question of net impact? By that I mean. Then make arguments about how de mocracy. By that I mean. Violence is down. by NATO. Assuming that a cost-benefit analys is is at play. Each of these could easily make for an in-depth case argument or a quick mention.Which citizens? This may seem silly. There are som e tangible arguments that can be leaned on. While that h ardly seems fair to me it seems a likely interpretation. So. maybe more importantly. Rights are being secured. but insurgents are citizens too. Terrorists are fewer. does the existence of civilian casualties constitute a harm that cannot be compared t o anything else? . In addition the . I think the best cases for the Pro side will play up improvements made under the purview of NATO. Being a PRO The Pro. The Con is wi nning arguments that the government is increasingly corrupt and is (likely to) curtailing rights and promoting violence. Who wins? This is when how the resolution is interpreted matters. seems like the preferable side to defend. Democratic events are occurring. Very quant ifiable truth in many circumstances. Do some citizens count less than others? It may be very easy to paint a grim picture of your opponent's ethics in a good cross-examination.

It's pretty hard to deny that over the course of the last ten years that NATO pr esence has not accomplished SOME good for the citizens of Afghanistan. If those things are true. there is a good argument to be made that the average citizen is more often at risk now than they were in 2000 (prior to NATO presence).com Pro should find some empirical arguments to ground their arguments that day-to-d ay life in Afghanistan is safer now than it used to be. B. the Con wants the resolution to take as short a reference frame as p ossible and set up some absolute rules that cannot be violated. If. . CONning a win I'm going to be honest. that the democratization (as slight as it may be) has not actually had an effect for the average Afghan citizen AND let's say that the Tal iban did not harm civilians on a regular basis. That is to say. Good luck in October and beyond. More directly.victorybriefs. at least in my opinion. S o what's the Con to do? I think the first key is winning some of the framing questions mentioned above. My advice: keep up on th e news as this topic could radically change at any moment. Your readings and argum entative preferences should guide you through the topic.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 32 of 129 www. Ideally. It may be helpful to reposition the question this way: Would Afghan citizens (no t Afghanistan as a nation) be worse off absent NATO presence? I think it is quite possible to answe r that question in a way that benefits the Con. V. not me. the Con wants th e debate to focus on what good NATO may or may not be contributing to at this very moment and then should focus on the number of innocent civilian casualties that have come at the hands of NAT O forces and their attacks. Closing Thoughts This should serve as some opening thoughts on the topic. I don't think the wording of the resolution does the Con side many favors. it would require some pretty slick counter-factual stuffy to be able to prove that was not the case. let's say.

but the clash between the two will have elements of that que stion. the burden is on the pro to show a demonstrated uptick in the Af ghan way of life. Given that Afghanistan is the new found focus o f Obama's military policy and the length of the war. Comparing Afghanistan circa 2001 to Afghanistan today is difficult. Is the government corrupt? NATO 's absence may not have any sort of effect on the Afghan government and if anything. Trying to ascertain whether NATO is currently making matters worse in Afghanista n relies on a thorough analysis of cause and effect. that the Taliban exist is t rue regardless of the presence of NATO forces.23 These documents suggest that NATO forces had much less contr ol of the country than previously thought.victorybriefs. NATO has a lot at stake. NATO hopes to leave the country at least in better shape than when they first ar rived. may fo .com Topic Analysis by Todd Rainey The Afghan war will reach its 10th anniversary around this time next year. Th ere are arguments in-between the two. pre-2001. However. After all. That air strikes are carried out is very much conti ngent on NATO's involvement with Afghanistan. Compared to that s cenario. it was marked by m uch less violence than Afghanistan today. The value question under such an outlook. President Obama hopes that NATO forces can cr eate a stable Afghanistan in order to mitigate the possibility that terrorist cells can take r oot. Whether that uptick is relative to a hypothetical current world without NATO or simply compared to pre-invasion Afghanistan is a matter of debate. H owever. The pro will want to disarm the negative by making as many of the tragedies in Afghanistan inevitable as possible. For instance. Afghanistan was ruled by the Taliban and its people were impoverished and without democratic freedoms. Afghanistan today certainly has a few of its charms. it has a number of advantages for the pro. and a fter the US-led invasion. because it r elies on a longstanding historical outlook which is subject to tenuous what-if scenarios. the recent declassification of documents surrounding the Afghan war by the group Wikileaks changes the game. Because the resolution asks whether NATO presence improves the lives of Afghan citizens rath er than simply not ruining it. an examination of NATO presence is ap t. This is not to say that the con must abandon such a comparison although life under the Taliban was brutal. At the same time. then. asks whether we wish to live freely but without security or more securely but less freely.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 33 of 129 www.

.org. wikileaks.ster some 23 The Wikileaks article is available on the Wikileaks website.

Over time .victorybriefs. It is burdened with tracing government corruption to NATO support of that government. This is not t o say that the United States is the only country fighting in dangerous territory. adding the search term United States would have similarly helpful result s. The con will want to link to specific news articles that demonstrate a spark on NATO's par t. or Taliban violence to actions which primarily target NATO. US forces are heavily involved in the more dangerous Southeastern sect ion of Afghanistan while its other members police the rest of the nation. paving the way for reconstruction and effective governance. the number of ISAF troops has grown from the initial 5000 to around 120 000 troops from 47 countries. NATO Presence In a broad sense. it might pay to use keywords that are open to the European bloc. Generally speaking. On NATO's official webpage titled N ATO's Role in Afghanistan. including all 28 NATO member nations.24 Among those 120. . NATO does this predominantly through its United Nations-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). 24 This information is periodically updated and the print version is consistent with the website's September 20 version.com degree of accountability by letting the government focus on policy rather than p olicing. so most articles that tal k about NATO troops or US troops will be largely interchangeable for the purpose of the debat e. this role has evolved into a sort of nation-building setup. the organization offers the following explanation of its presence: NATO's main role in Afghanistan is to assist the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) in exercising and extending its authority and influence across the country. to cover all of Afghanistan's territory. Since NATO took command of ISAF in 2003. The con wins in a world where v ery few of Afghanistan's problems are inevitable. NATO originally invaded Afghanistan in an attempt to flush AlQuaeda out of the country while disrupting the Taliban who had provided them safe haven.000 US troops. originally limited to Kabul. When looking for news articles whic h imply greater danger. When looking for evidence of relatively safe areas. Accordingl y. but it is the largest operational force in the area.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 34 of 129 www. the Alliance has gradually expanded the reach of its mission.000 troops are some 100.

Government Integrated Civilian-Military Campaign Plan for Support to Afghanistan elaborated by General Stanley McChrystal and U. has been achieved. The country remains a potential breeding ground for terrorism as it was prior to the Sept.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 35 of 129 www. It explains in a press release: According to the U. all of the civilmilit ary elements operating in the same province should coordinate and synchronize the full spectrum of U.S. making excellent focal p oints for questions of jurisdiction. The intervals between the large-scale Afghanistan conferences. 2010.victorybriefs. there are huma nitarian efforts incorporated into the military structure. These are far from perfect. The central point ought to be the need to determine NATO's ability to effectivel y police Afghanistan. London to Kabul. as well as the UN and the whole range of Afghan partners operating in the area. 2001 attacks in the US. organizations. aid becomes threat-based rather than needs-based that is. Assistance thus becomes just another weapon at the service of the military. NATO and other Western allies have been trying to pacify Afghanistan for almost 10 years -. but the list of problems has only grown. it is deployed according to military objectives not impartial assessments of humanitarian needs. from Berlin to Paris. which can condition.9 In such a context. however.com While NATO's military presence attracts the most media attention.S. None of them. Girl s' . deny or reward relief to those who fall in or out of line with its larger security agenda. This article asserts that in many ways medical relief groups are a third party r ather than a part of the NATO coalition. Humanitarian initiatives are a failure if they continue to be a nec essity.with little success. NATO does provide its own humanitarian missions but they are at times overshadowed by groups such as Doctors Without Borders. have become ever shorter. including private aid group s. Karl Eikenberry in August 2009. A particularly egregious exam ple of this occurred in 2004. as the German magazine Der Spiegel points out on July 28. Ambassador to Afghanistan. 2010: Led by the US. 1 1. Humanitarian concerns are secondary impacts aside from the main question in this resolution. as Doctors Without Borders argues on March 11. War aims have changed frequently. And little that the West has imported to Afghanistan sin ce then has put down such deep roots that it would survive a pullout for long. when coalition forces distributed leaflets that threat ened to cut off assistance unless the population provided information on al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.S.

they are not enough. NATO is pri oritizing the transition of power from NATO hands to a peaceful and stable Afghan government. if the debate is focused on the conflict. it has still had a few high-profile accidents.com schools. February 20. NATO's presence would be beneficial to civilians by providing a stable platform for the democratic process. In February. NATO may be doing more harm than good. 95 percent 25 Slate. I could extend my warrant that conf lict is the primary concern and only then worry about answering these points.26 These strikes are on the one hand an ine vitable by-product of war and on the other hand a threat to the hearts and minds approach desired by the US-led coalition. however. This way. an unsuccessful transition.com/article/idUSTRE61L1XJ20100222 . 2010. However. 2010: The legitimate grievance of the people of Marjah are used by the Taliban who wil l seek to recruit the region's angry young men.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 36 of 129 www. According to a News Junkie article from May 6. Afghanistan is currently the sort of nation that receives aid from others to con struct it. I would research answers to potential opposing claims about nation-building and save the m for the second speech. What can we do about corruption in Afghanistan? 26 Reuters. Rather than spend most of my time emphasizing nation-building. As a justification.victorybriefs. http://www. If one views this transition as desirable and successful. NATO Airstrike Kills 27 Civilians in Afghanistan. wells and newly paved roads are pleasant side effects of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. there is litt le time wasted. the Afghani people don't se em to like NATO's presence. r egardless of NATO's responsibility for its condition. would suggest that NATO hasn't improved the political lives of the Afghan people. While NATO is working to reduce the number of civilian deaths by pulling fightin g away from the cities and into the countryside. In Marjah.reuters. September 15. one of the more violent areas. These improvements take place in the context of a war zone. a rocket strike killed 23 civilians in Marjah. Of those interviewed. 2010. and if one's opponents go for a secondary argument. if the transiti on is seen as propping up a corrupt government as is suggested by Slate magazine on September 13.25 Likewise. 2010. and in that case whichever interpretation of NATO's presence ends the war sooner so to speak will control access to questions o f nation-building. NATO Action Nato's actions are a set of disparate steps taken to a central goal.

2010: One factor contributing to this deterioration in independent humanitarian assistance has been the deadly lack of respect for health care workers and facilities shown by all of the belligerents involved in the conflict. inter nally displaced persons or refugees are increasing in number with little infrastructural assista nce. but the simple fact that there are homeless Afghanis is not open to interpretation. and medical personnel have been targeted by armed opposition groups like the Taliban.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 37 of 129 www. Whether NATO is to blame or the Taliban remains a matter of debate. Whether it is possible to regain and defen d this space will not only affect the provision of assistance in Afghanistan. On another humanitarian note. The same article suggests that as a result of the conflict in Afghanistan. and this is havin g dire consequences for the population. civilian casualties and night raids . A second. but its prior itization of security may be essential to providing humanitarian assistance at any point. the space to provide neutral. and impartial humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan has been lost. Hospitals. while Afghan government and international forces have repeatedly raided and occupied health structures. but in other conflicts as well. Humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan is made difficult by the conflict. the pro would want to argue that NATO's military missions improve the lives of Afghan ci tizens by working to bring DWB to the country. The con will want to use this as an extension of th e more basic argument that NATO presence exacerbates conflict in the country. Doctors Without Borders is particularly condemnin g of NATO's decision to raid hospitals in Afghanistan when searching for insurgents because doing so undermines the credible neutrality of medical assistance to civilian populations . On the one hand.com believed more young Afghans have joined the Taliban in the last year. In short. It continues in the March 11 report: . Doctor s without Borders explains in a statement on its website on March 11. and 45 percent stated they were angry at the NATO occupation. independent. related factor has been the coo ptation of the aid system by the international coalition at times with the complicity of the aid community itself to the point where it is difficult to distinguish aid efforts from political and military action. clinics. NATO hasn't made DWB's mission easy to carry out. or taken. given away. 78 percent of the respondents were often or always angry . In this light.victorybriefs. NATO presence in Afghanistan may undermine humanit arian work by discrediting those efforts.

for instance. compromises can lead to deliberate attacks on facilities. as they are for an emergency room where wounded civilians and non-combatants from different factions may seek lifesaving medical care. thus reducing acce ss to medical services for an entire population trapped by war. and impartiality are obviously not as critical for bui lding roads and schools or for promoting the rule of law. they m ay as well be directed toward the military support of a central. It's a safer bet on the part of the c on to argue a lack of improvement. NATO undermin es the rule of law in Afghanistan.victorybriefs. They are pract ical tools that help ensure respect for humanitarian action by all parties in a confl ict. there is a major operational incompatibility between the two in war.com Such an approach has compromised humanitarian principles and eroded the working space needed to provide humanitarian assistance.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 38 of 129 www. if militias are going to exist in Afghanistan. the Guardian reported that many of these militias operated outside the law. The pro wants to paint NATO's wrongdoin g as a necessary response to an uncertain enemy. NATO Methods NATO's use of military force happens in a variety of ways.27 What t he guardian does not discuss in detail is the pre-NATO condition of the militias. One way NATO works to police Afghanistan is by working with local militias. While both relief and development may be well-intentioned and are not necessarily opposed to one another.uk/world/2009/sep/16/nato-forces-afghan-militias . Neutrality. independence. in all likelihood they would exist whe ther or not NATO were present. The Guardian. while the pro can argue that NATO's work with militia groups is the beginning of consolidation of power. is c onsistent with NATO 27 Nato forces rely on illegal Afghan militias.co. thus pinning blame on the Taliban for any problems and press di that the civilians face. http://www. These principles are essential pre-requisites for relief workers. patients. In the latter case. and the media reports make that duty spectacularly easy. and its methods direc tly impact the well-being of the people of Afghanistan. The con can argue that by supporting militia groups. Another NATO military action is the ordering of air strikes against military tar gets. In 2 009. or medical staff. While the US-led forces certainly enable the militias to operate. democratic government. A recent airstrike against Taliban militants on the 10th of September.guardian. report says. The con wants to suggest that NATO actions sasters are proof that NATO cannot police Afghanistan.

http://www. The Afghan Life NATO actions aside. Criminality. agriculture. turnout was extremely low. and trade with neighboring countries.29 The pro shouldn't be afraid to admit that NATO had problems with securing the election. Much of the population continues to suffer from shortages of housing. landlocked. The New York Times.nytimes. Despite the progress of the past few years. and highly dependent on foreign aid. Taking an overall approach to NATO's capa city to secure high-profile targets gives fair ground to both sides and lets the debater s argue out which story trumps the others. weak governance.com/news/2010/sep/10/3-afghan-insurgents-killed-natoair-strike/ 29 In Marja.30 The following is take n from the book: Afghanistan's economy is recovering from decades of conflict.28 These airstrikes are not popular among the Afghan citizens for under standable reasons. electricity. and jobs.com/2010/09/18/in-marja-violence-and-intimidation-dep ress-vote/ 30 Although some US-driven sources may have some bias. the recovery of the agricultural se ctor. The economy has improved significantly since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001 largely beca use of the infusion of international assistance. Nor should the con be afraid to admit that NATO has made polling easier in Kabul. A major reason for NATO's increased troop presence in Afghanistan is the need to defend critical areas of the nation. and service sector growth. they bring suffering and fe ar to a broad population. and the Afghan 28 3 Afghan insurgents killed in NATO air strike. Afghanistan itself has changed quite a bit since the invasio n. collateral damage occurs on a monthly basis. The Washington Times. and while the number of de aths are low compared to the millions of citizens of Afghanistan. http://atwar. clean water.com behavior. . Violence and Intimidation Depress Vote. During the most recent election. which the alliance has largely managed to secu re. insecurity. Afghanistan is extremely poor.blogs. polling turnout in the recent Afghan election was high.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 39 of 129 www. the CIA world factbook ha s an excellent track record of accuracy and impartiality. In the Southern parts of the cou ntry. It's important that you devote time in your rounds to providing some sort of snapshot of Afghan life. medical care.washingtontimes. I recommend your starting point be the CIA world factbook. In the Northern provinces. NATO forces attempted to d efend ballot areas.victorybriefs. where violence is more of a problem.

including low revenue collection. The New York Times. but this is another offshoot to the security debate. In a cu lture which is perhaps slightly more hostile to women's rights than the West. Since the i nvasion. While the international community remains committed to Afghanistan's development. they may not feel the effects as strongly as one may expect. United States Institute of Peace.nytimes.html 33 Education in Afghanistan: Then and Now. Education in Afghanistan has seen remarkable improvements u nder NATO guidance.victorybriefs. there is easy pot ential for the pro to connect NATO presence to the social gains made by women in the last decade.com Government's inability to extend rule of law to all parts of the country pose challenges to future economic growth.32 Not all is hopeless. there have been fewer such farms. keep your research focused on NATO's mil itary effects and 31 The CIA world factbook does argue that opium production is still high but has fallen by enough of an amount to make an economic impact. Separating NATO presence from the change in the livelihood of the Afghan citizen s is no easy task. which includes the War on Drugs. they used poppy production for their own ends and not for those of the farmers. the reason being that when the Taliban were in rule in Afghanistan. . it was much more difficult and usually an underground operation.33 NATO presence in the country may o r may not be a causal effect. Afghanistan's living standards are among the lowest in the world. The institute exp lains that while women and girls were able to get an education in Afghanistan pre-invasion. http://www.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 40 of 129 www. hig h levels of corruption. especially among women and girls.org/events/education-afghanistan-then-and-now. most often for use as opium and heroin.com/2007/08/26/world/asia/26heroin. which is where your rhetorical powers of persuasion are most needed. costing the country a traditional cash crop. A t the same time that farmers seem to be deprived. the Government of Afghanistan will need to overcome a number of challenges. Conclusion One of the most basic mantras of statistical research is that correlation does n ot make causation. but it does hint at a much more friendly environment to such a liberal proposal. 32 Taliban Raise Poppy Production to a Record Again. Keepi ng in mind that conflict is the root of the resolution. weak government capacity. http://www.usip. The site does not explicitly credit NATO for the security to attend school. anemic job creation.31 NATO presence subjects Afghan farmers to Western authority. pledging over $57 billion at three donors' conferences since 2002. Prior to the invasion by NATO forces. and poor public infrastructure. many of Afghanistan's farmers made their l iving on the production of poppy flowers.

. There should be no shortage of news articles this month.victorybriefs. so be sure to check as often as possible for developments in the war and to be ready to make new found connections when t he unexpected becomes reality.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 41 of 129 www.com from there determine how security (or the lack thereof) makes the country better -off (or worse-off).

a battle since 2001. by Washington Post Staff Writer.36 The vast majority of NATO troops are from the United States of the 123. Admiral Mike Mullen explains that 2010 developments have lead Afghanista n to a critical point.000 are fro m countries other than America. Karzai must crack down on graft. 7 soldiers are killed after weeks of decline in NATO casualty ra te. Resolv ed: NATO presence improves the lives of Afghan citizens. 5.000 total troops. an d selfactualization needs. The following attempts to guide debaters through both sides of the debate. a make or break year for NATO.com Topic Analysis by Sarah Spiker BACKGROUND34 Afghanistan. security needs fall right after physiological needs and before love/belonging. by Rod Nordland. 2010. Section: NEWS. THE POSITIVE RESULTS Security. NATO troops in Afghanistan have tripled. led by the Americans and followed by additiona l NATO troops. Author says breaking Afghan Taleban-Al-Qa'idah nexus . sustainable country often relies on the country's a bility to secure its own borders and manage its own military.37 As global support for the war declines. just 23. 39 Thus. accessed via . supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring. pg. Au gust 12.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 42 of 129 www. esteem.uphill task' for Pakistan. please take a keen note of dates when reviewing sources. Afghanistan faces a turbulent future. developing and reconstructing a nation can be sa id to be in the 34 There are multiple articles from the same source but different dates in this analysis. 38 BBC Monitoring South Asia-Political. NATO chief says.35 but countries are setting their sight s on withdrawal. accessed via LexisNexis 37 The International Herald Tribune. August 30.38 A simple answer to the resolution.victorybriefs. 2010. In the past year. accessed via LexisNexis 36 The Washington Post. World Poverty and Human Rights Online explains that development efforts aim to put social. offering arguments and sources to develop cases. Afghan violence reverses gains. T he answer is bogged down in varying qualitative interpretations of what is best for the Afgha n people. 35 The International Herald Tribune. Canada expects to withdraw nex t summer. According to Maslow's Hierarchy of Need s. the fight to restore Afghanistan is still going strong. 2010. The Netherlands withdrew 2. and economic structures in place to ensure people can begin to fulfill their own needs in the future. legal.000 troops last month. is unfortunately not available. and Britain plans to start their complete 2015 withdrawal next year. Sect ion: pg. previously cited. September 8. A08. Building a strong. Nearly one decade later.

org/2010/charity-magnuson/development-to -fulfill-maslow%E2%80%99shierarchyof-needs/ .LexisNexis 39 World Poverty and Human Rights Online. by Charity Magnuson. De velopment to Fulfill Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. http://wphr. 2010. March 21.

argues that NATO forces are tackling issues of terrorism. member of the Senate comm ittee for International Affairs. previously cited . A08. June 13. cargo planes to Afghan air force-TV. i magine a world without a program to educate and train these native security forces. 40 The Washington Post. accessed via LexisNexis 41 BBC Monitoring South Asia-Political. 2010. accessed via LexisNexis 42 BBC Monitoring South Asia-Political. previously cited 43 BBC Monitoring South Asia-Political. September 8. 2010.com people's best interest. June 1 3. Sayed Farokh Shah Jenab Fariabi. What good is a trained fighting force if they do not have the proper e quipment to carry out their job? NATO is stepping in with a plan to remedy this technological shor tfall by supplying 20 helicopters and more than 50 cargo planes to the Afghan air force. Supplied by BBC World Monitoring. Afghan MPs urge foreign forces to stay in Afghanistan. Karzai must crack down on graft. the intent is noble and n ecessary. premature withdrawal threatens that goal. August 4.41 Fariabi indicates that the internatio nal community should stay shoulder to shoulder with the Afghan people and they should continue their cooperation until our national army and national police forces stand on th eir own feet. 2010. While there have been setbacks. August 4. accessed via LexisNexis 44 BBC Monitoring South Asia-Political. Absent NATO involvement. 2010. indicates that approximately 30.000 trained Afghans have bee n instructed in the use of this equipment. NATO troops are looking out for the best interest of Afghan citizens. Supplied by BBC World Monitoring. by Washington Post Staff Writer. Sect ion: pg. NATO chief says. Afghan troops would likely not improve over their curre nt state.43 Lieutena nt General William Caldwell. NATO to donate helicopters. in his opinion. 2010. Little woul d likely be done to resolve the lack of training and education. Aside from attempting to create a stable Afghan force. the commander of the NATO Training Mission and Combined Securi ty Transition Command. 42 By providing for security now and training a new security force for tomorrow. At the present time.44 This gift of equipment directly benefits the Afg han people and the Afghan government by ensuring that they have the tools to be self-sufficient in the future. the United States scrapped its old training program in favor o f redeveloping their strategies.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 43 of 129 www. Supplies. Recognizing that a new strategy was necessary for this training mission. NATO forces are assisting in securing the country on their own. The Washington Post notes that Afghan troops are mostly illiterate and lacking in ba sic training and education.40 Although training has been slow and trainers are in short supply. NATO forces are focusing on trainin g a functional Afghan security force.victorybriefs.

Sec urity alone is not enough. html 46 NATO's website. If they were of no benefit.telegraph.htm 47 Aljazeera. He argues that We cannot sustain our mission in Afghanistan without public support It will do litt le good to build schools without first eliminating those who would burn the schools and kill the teachers. they tend to be prominent att ack targets. In re ality. Ea ch month.html 48 The Gazette (Montreal).nato. the United States alone has promised $7. August 24. A 15. and refurbish mosques. minds called key.45 These m onies help fund ISAF Post Operation Relief Fund. Taliban attacks NATO supply convoy http://english. accessed via LexisNexis . by Kevin Dougherty. November 15. Nato supplies to Afghanistan hi t by Pakistan floods. Providing food supplies is a short-term solution for humanitarian support. Due to the great need of these trucks. by Rob Crilly.net/news/asia/2010/08/201082485421604121. NATO's role in Afghanistan. NATO supports the groundwork for hard and soft in frastructure. Section: pg.49 Brigadier MacKay explains that urban areas are in a much better state than they were just two years ago. and Provincial Reconstruction Teams which p rovide food. Since we have already discussed NATO security efforts. 2006. He notes that people are returning to towns. 2010.aljazeera. http://www. displaying signs of real 45 The Telegraph. we can now focus on humanitarian infrastructure efforts. a fund established in 2006 to provide humanitar ian assistance in the aftermath of NATO operations.victorybriefs.5 billion in aid packages to Afghanistan. the Taliban would not seek them out as targe ts so often. 5. NATO reps question Afghan progress: Hearts. Afghanistan needs an infrastructure system is can depend on in the long-term.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_8189. Calha's statement touc hes on how both elements are needed to be successful in Afghanistan and truly improve the l ives of the people. and medicine.46 Trucks and the supplies they bring are essential to the Afghan people's well-being. Soldiers have been assigned to dig ditches. 2010.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7963961/Nato-supplies -to-Afghanistan-hit-by-Pakistanfloods.com In addition to military supplies. Groundwork for Infrastructure. Humanitarian efforts alone are not enough either. shelter. NATO provides humanitarian efforts as well.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 44 of 129 www. 48 Building quality of life for the Afghan people requires a holistic approach.000 NATO trucks filled with supplies pass through Pakistan on their way to Afghanist an. A recent attack on 24 supply ships47 highlights the importance these supplies prov ide the Afghan people. Brigades have been aside to assist in this very matter. August 25. build sc hools. Julio Miranda Calha is legislator from Portugal and NATO reporter on Afghanistan . no date given. http://www.

rogress-Army chief. accessed via LexisNexis We've made p . 7. Section: 1st Edition. April 14. pg. AFGHANISTAN.49 The Birmingham Post. 2008.

September 14. The overall strategy of the pro team should be to focus on the world o f NATO assistance to the world without NATO assistance.50 Provincial Reconstruction Teams work with Afghan Armed Forces to strengthen the influence of local Afghan authorities. and a well-trained Afghan force is in the works. the Afghan government would redouble its efforts to push forward the process of national reconciliatio n by engaging various Taliban groups in talks so that President Karzai's deadline of 2014 is met. they are still better than the alte rnative of a Talibanrun country of fear. A BBC article explains: Those who see the NATO forces' withdrawal as a repeat of the American pullout from Vietnam in 1975 or the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 are grossly mistaken. roads are being improved. THE NEGATIVE RESULTS Intensification of the War. 2005. You can admit from the beginnin g that while the strategies employed may be far from perfect. March 25.52 Prolonged presence in Afghanistan is det rimental.victorybriefs. Roads and bridges are completed via contrac ting.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 45 of 129 www. By guiding operational policies. Afghanistan's president thanking Lithuani a for support in reconstructing country. would try to regain the 50 The International Herald Tribune. rather than beneficial for the Afghan people. there will be intensification of the war as NATO forces. 2010 Author says breaking Afghan Taleban-Al-Qa'idah nexus . NATO directly assists in the l ong-term functioning of Afghanistan. 8. Sectio n: News. Schools ar e opening.51 which in turn helps assist in long-term functioning and policies (soft infrastructure). on th e completion of the troop surge under Obama's strategy. the situation in Afghanistan is likely to move simultaneously in two directions: one. pg. NATO sets new rules to stop rot in Afghan contracts. Opportunities for the people although still major targets for the Taliban are actually available. Absent NATO . Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring. In the months that lie ahead. many years. sometimes for the first time in many. While some good has been accomplished. NATO forces p rimarily serve to intensify war unnecessarily. thereby ensuring that basic services are available to the people.uphill task' for Pakistan . accessed via LexisNexis 52 BBC Monitoring South Asia Political. Two. Au gust 12. The people benefit a) from the provided hard infrastructure and b) from the supportive soft infrastructure which allows for continued operation of the hard infrastructure. where would the people be today? Resource-less and living in fear. by Alissa Rubin. accessed via LexisNexis 51 Baltic News Service. which can spur economic growth and development. Strategy.com progress as a result of NATO's work. 2010.

August 24. 2010. New Case of Civilian D eaths Investigated in Afghanistan.com initiative and the Taliban would try to prevent this.net/casualties. NATO said all of the killed were Taliban. Quelling Taliban recruitment would be dif ficult. previously cited. 2010. they say they were killed because they were present in the battlefield.and 13-year-old children.56 More than 8. When NATO and ISAF kill civilians in an area. civilian casualties caused by foreign forces have been an issue that the international community and the Afghan government have been unable to solve so far.54 hardly enough to justify leaving the Taliban.nytimes. By intensifying the wa r.. more civilians and soldiers would die in the battlefield. Current programs to convert the Taliban to work for the government are lacking. previously cited 56 Unknown News.html . mini scule in comparison the loss suffered by Afghanistan. including women and children. 54 The New York Times. Some converts only earn $12 a mo nth.500 m ore were from the Afghan military. on 5 August. Local residents have complete information regarding the 53 BBC Monitoring South Asia Political.140 U. August 10. When civilians are accidentally killed in the line of fire or through botched raids. http://www. civilians deaths alone can negate the resolution.victorybriefs.. troops and 772 coalition troops were lost.629 based upon reported figures. While some civilian deaths are inev itable. With the intensification o f the war. Approximately 8. the second result of NATO's current strategy w ould be disastrous for the people. NATO directly harms civilians and indirectly fuels Taliban growth. Unknown News estimates the tot al number of casualties in Afghanistan to be 19. Even as Afghanistan attempts to reconcile with the Taliban.com/2010/08/25/world/asia/25afghan. NATO and specifically United States presence would cause instability and violence.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 46 of 129 www. NATO troops have been unable to account for the civilian lives they have taken: Since NATO and America attacked Afghanistan. 2010. the largest loss of any single category. http://www. Just 1. 55 It appears NATO forces hav e become the barrier to a working society instead of the solution. 2 0 other family members will pick up weapons and stand against them.53 Even if originally well-intended.S. Civilian Deaths. but there were civilians among them at least two of whom were 12. Earlier the same day NATO forces bombarded the area and 13 people were killed. August 24.800 were Afghan civilians. As previously alluded to. 2010. Although no officials numbers have been released.Eleven people died in this incident.html 55 The New York Times. a NATO plane targeted a car carrying a coffin and the relatives of the dead and dropped bombs on it.unknownnews. by Dexter Filkins. August 12. However.

the extent to wh ich NATO participating countries become involved may lead to negative ramifications. creating a reinforcing cycle of destruction and justified NATO presence. Interference in Internal Affairs. Afghan training to cost U. Pakistan rivalling over NATO's Afghanistan. http://www. previously cited 58 BBC Monitoring South Asia Political. Civilians die in combat. which in turn sparks new calls for increased troop pres ence and operations. This cycle feeds o ff each other. 2010. Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring.com/2010/01/26/world/asia/26strategy. January 25.nytimes. August 12. However. 2010. In the coming years. Au gust 10.com civilians killed.victorybriefs.Is it also a dream or a possibility for Iran and Tajikis tan to replace NATO and the West especially at a time when both these countries are accused of supporting the Taliban? The final question is unanswered in the article.61 If NATO forces ca n ensure that Afghanistan is dependent for security purposes. August 12. Envoy's Cables Sho w Worries on Afghan Plans.com/id/39025766/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/ . accessed via LexisNexis 61 MSNBC. 2010.59 More specifically. NATO is ass isting in the setting up and strengthening of the Afghan government. $6 b illion a year.58 not just the T aliban. but the answer is bleak.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 47 of 129 www. September 6. Afghanistan will be dependent on NATO for security purposes. such as prolonged dependency. they can then use that influence to manipulate 57 BBC Monitoring South Asia Political.S. to the extent that the country is ess ential run by the United States:60 Karzai's trip to Iran and Khalili's trip to Pakistan can be viewed within the framework of regional cooperation and improved relations between Afghanistan and these countries. 2010. http://www.msnbc. U.. by Eric Schmitt. 2010. NATO and NATO commanders always talk about avoiding civilian casualties in Afghanistan in their remarks and speeches. by Desmond Butler. As part of the War in Afghanistan. article.S. their presence cannot be justified based upon civilian lives saved. Iran. but what is important is that interference of these countri es in the internal affairs of Afghanistan which NATO officials and leaked documents show was not discussed. Even if NATO's presence can be justi fied because it assists in setting up the Afghan government. but how can bombarding civilians car 5 km away from the battlefield be justified?57 Civilians bear the brunt of NATO brutality.msn.html 60 BBC Monitoring South Asia Political. Casualties are destabilizing Afghanistan. previously cited 59 The New York Times. NATO forces-the United States in particular-are meddling in the internal affairs of the Afghan government.

pg. revolves around the drug trade. Absent a cohesive strategy to eradicate and support farmers through alternative means.62 Yet the same article rebukes NATO for failing to fight the drug trade. NATO is often applaud ed for setting up a system that could one day be accountable and efficient. In stabilizing the government. Afghanistan. poor farmers are left with little to profit from . Poppy production in Afghanistan is huge.natopa. particularly in the southern part of the country. Februa ry 6. However. Increased Drug Trade. but even indirect assertion of power can be dangerous. Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring. Mark Angel.com the internal politics of the country. accounting for 92% of opium worldwide. Ju 62 BBC Monitoring South Asia ly 25.65 NATO's specific strategies face a double bindeither they a) eradicate farms and force farmers to seek refuge with the Taliban or b) they ignore the poppy farms and allow the drug trade fueling the Taliban to continue.asp?SHORTCUT=1785 . Even though the parliamentarian system was established in Afghanistan post-troops. stability could not be found. More.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 48 of 129 www. 170 CDSDG 09 E rev 1 . but perhaps not the stron gest argument. An interesting area to consider. NATO's influence may not be direct. no date given. In turn. in a time where highly educated and trained personnel are needed. Speaker of the Russian Parliament's Lower House argued that unless poppy production was eradicated in A fghanistan. as well a s delays in adopting an effective counter-narcotics strategy. citing a 40% increase in trafficking. In 2006. have allowed the dru gs business to flourish since 2001. by Karl Inderfurth and Bruce Riedel. more. 2007. int/default.victorybriefs. the drug trade is widely believed to f eed the insurgency and thereby perpetuate instability.An Overview of Security Challenges and Mechanisms of Co-Operation in the Central Asian Regio htt p://www. Reporter. accessed via LexisNexis 64 NATO Parliamentary Assembly. accessed via LexisNexis 63 The International Herald Tribune. BBC explains: Political. the people cannot truly be free politically until the NATO overlords leave them to decide freely. they turn to the Taliban for support. NATO.64 As NATO eradicates poppy farms. NATO is cau sing the people more harm than they otherwise would have inflicted. opium harvest in Afghanist an increased 60%. Afghan observers says NATO failed to fight drugs. 6. shackling Afghan officials from truly maki ng their own calculations. 2010 Sunday. Section: Opinion. With no other options. NATO is starting from scratch.63 NATO carefully admits blame for the inc rease: The instability that has followed the overthrow of the Taliban regime. Removed Experienced People.

drug trade with Afghanistan.csmonitor. August 18. Russia's Medvede v talks terrorism. by Tom Peter.65 The Christian Science Monitor.com/World/terrorism-secur ity/2010/0818/Russia-s-Medvedevtalksterrorism-drug-trade-with-Afghanistan-Pakistan-leaders . Pakistan leaders http://www. 2010.

leaving the people in a worse off condition than they otherwise would have been in. In view of these remarks. But now. many of the current problem s with security forces and the government may be attributed to NATO's own policies. On one hand. NATO is providing Afghanistan with the necessary training and supplies tha t it needs to be a functioning society. In addition. Every democracy will flounder and strengthen. the demons of recruitment grow in the face of NATO presence and unintentional lives are lost. the mujahedin were also forced to keep out of the government. despite the good NATO seeks to achieve. the situation would not have become critical and the expenses would not have increased this much. Strategy. Demobilization and Reintegration] forced the Afghan security officials to resign from their positions and look for other jobs. The best strategy to take will be either straight up denying the benef its of NATO presence ever or conceding that NATO troops may have originally done some good b ut are now causing the very problems they seek to remedy. The real question is. did NATO cause the problems that Afghanistan faces today? Or is NATO solving preexisting conditions to a better extent than the alternative of no presence? Political. if the Western countries had paid attention to the Afghan officials who are well experienced in the fight against terrorists instead of th eir delicate soldiers and if these countries had provided the Afghan forces with modern weapons instead of old and useless arms. Ju 66 BBC Monitoring South Asia ne 23.victorybriefs.com NATO soldiers are fighting in Afghanistan at a time when the country has many highly experienced military officials. then.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 49 of 129 www. The pressure from these countries and a programme called DDR [Disarmament. CONCLUSION Results are mixed as to whether NATO presence is actually beneficial in Afghanis tan. You can admit that the Taliban were disastrous for the Afghan people . the situation has changed.66 Essentially. Afghan paper criticizes NATO's weak performance in fighting insurgency. On the other hand. Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring. but the continued presence of NATO troops threatens the survival of the strong s ociety they had envisioned. Accessed via LexisNexi s . 2010. NATO troops are inciting more Taliban recruitment and pre venting reconciliation at the cost of civilian lives rather than eliminating the threat in the first place.

And it's also very timely US and NATO policy in Afghanistan is in significant flux at the moment. a nd easy to research. with Afghan elections occur ring as I'm writing. In that respect. though.com Topic Analysis by Christian Tarsney This should be a great resolution to debate: It's straightforward. but also Asian states like South Korea. like me. with tons of literature out there on both sides. It deals with a major. and make the most of it: Learn your history. Rather than dividing things up by sides. while NATO the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. as well . you're a relative neophyte when it comes to using those tools (or if you've never even heard of them until just now). we'll cover some interpretational issues stemming from the wording of the resolution. Malaysia and Sing apore. Australia and Georgia. First. Enjoy this topic while it lasts. and keep up to date with the changes that are l ikely to occur over the next several weeks. US midterms just around the corner.victorybriefs. These include. a good number of non-NATO countries have also contrib uted troops to the international force currently deployed in the country. and as the topic goes on. accessible. The goal of this topic analysis is mainly to give you a sense of the issues you should be researching before your first tournament. measurable and weighable impacts. As you'll quickly find when you s tart your research. Understanding the resolution One mildly unfortunate feature of the resolutional wording is the identification of the international presence in Afghanistan with NATO .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 50 of 129 www. and then try to briefly synopsize the current position it Afghanista n and how it got there. I. update tools like Google Alerts and oth er media monitoring functions are you friends if. most p rominently. un derstand the current situation on the ground. the approach to arguments will (sans a brief section at the end) be or ganized topically and take you through some of the general areas that you should be prepared to de bate both ways. formed in the earlies t stages of the Cold War to balance against Soviet power in Europe has been the main organizing ae gis for operations in Afghanistan. high-sta kes issue that will give rise to clear. and Obama's Afghan strategy approaching some crucial moments of truth with the Kandahar offensive just getting underway and efforts t o negotiate with and reintegrate insurgent fighters potentially on the verge of bearing fruit. this w ould be an excellent time to familiarize yourself.

and you'll probably see it referenced in the literature at least as much if not more than . The combined military presence in Afghanistan is termed the International Security A ssistance Force (ISAF).as several non-NATO states in Central and Eastern Europe like Sweden and Macedon ia.

an enormous amount of what you read will talk about the United States rather than any international body. of cou rse. the US would have a very hard time going it alone. In particular. of course. it is still technically the case that even if N ATO were to withdraw entirely from Afghanistan tomorrow. comes f rom the remainder of the resolution: improves the lives of Afghan citizens. one important question that will arise in debate rounds is the commitment level of other NATO countries to Afghan operations while the US supplies about two thirds of the troops in the country. so you're unlikely to er r too much by cutting or reading evidence that's nominally specific to US presence rather than NATO pr esence. political will being the most obvious case in point. you can treat the two as interchangeable in your research. nam ely: (2) Improves over what timeframe? Both of these questions will have a substantial impact on how the topic gets deb ated. While NATO heads the ISAF. does presence mean exclusively military presence for instance. to be consc ious of the distinction and of the precise meanings of both terms. the refore. and by far the most critical. do the la rge amounts of aid being pumped into the country by NATO countries count as NATO pres ence ? I think. related question. Let's consider them in order. there would still be several thousa nd ISAF troops left in the country from non-NATO militaries. intuitively. The final. other NATO countries supply most of the remaining third. Just as NATO is the driving fo rce behind ISAF policy. is a relational term. On certain issues. The negative world . the US is the driving force behind NATO policy. so the first major question you should ask yourself in developi ng an approach to the resolution on either side is: (1) Improves relative to what? A little consideration of this question suggests a second. that the answer to this question ought to be yes. set of interpretational issues. gives rise to a couple of questions as well. The next word in the resolution. though.victorybriefs.com NATO. under most circumstance s. That said. presence. That said. US-specific evidence may not cut it. It's important. Improves. and if NATO's commitment falls apart. but more ext ensive research than I've done about the ways in which aid is managed and distributed might yiel d a more decisive answer.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 51 of 129 www. On the flip side.

and whether those authors are affirming or negating crucially depends on which of the above possibilities frames the debate round. Perhaps the Taliban regime was oppressive eno ugh that the present state of affairs is at least a substantial improvement over our never ha ving invaded at all. sometime between 2002 and the present. withdrawing prematurely would only compound our mistake. Since I doubt that very many judges will accept the nega tive team simply fiating an alternative to the present NATO stance. widening the scope of the topic literature. when framed in these d ifferent ways.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 52 of 129 www. (1d) Improves relative to NATO never having entered the country in the first place (meaning either (i) having left the Taliban in place. would be (1b). if you think that another interpretation would be more advantageous f or you and think you can justify it. without ever sending in ground troops) It should be obvious that the question of the resolution. or (ii) having toppled it via aerial support of the Northern Alliance and other rebel groups. but we should still have withdrawn sooner. for instance on the 2011 timeframe suggested by President Obama. for instance. (1b) Improves relative to a near-term. My personal preference. . (1c) Improves relative to an earlier withdrawal. but now that we're in the cou ntry. of course. and should be withdrawing now. how a 2005 withdrawal would have played out if it had happened. perhaps the war was a bad idea in the first place. what the first question above implicates: What alternative t o NATO presence must the negative debater defend as preferable from the standpoint of A fghans? A few possible ways of resolving this issue are: (1a) Improves relative to an immediate NATO withdrawal. might have very different answers. debating under (1c) or (1d) would require a lot of tough-to-substan tiate predictive analysis about. phased withdrawal.com This is. from the standpoint of debatability. and simultaneously avoid the tho rny counterfactuals that arise from figuring out. co nversely. or to the whole history of NA TO operations in the country. in effect. This approach most closely tracks with the debate that actual policymakers and analysts are cu rrently engaged in.victorybriefs. what everyone involved would have done if they hadn't done what they actually did. by all means go whichever route seems best. Or. That said. There are authors out there saying both of those things.

wh ile those stemming from (2b) correspond to (1a) and (1b). is that the timeframe for improvement i s set by the lifespans of current Afghan citizens the ones actually being discussed in the reso lution. of course. improvements ten or fifteen years down the line mig ht be reasons to affirm the resolution on balance. hopefully unnecessary note about framework: A great deal of what you' ll find on the topic of Afghanistan will have nothing to do. Since our only real evidence about the present comes from the p ast. argue that. you're likely to find yourself debating either (2a) or (2b) above. but things are a little mo re complicated than this might suggest. while Afghan citizens have been worse off since the 2001 invasion th an they were before it and the situation is perhaps still getting worse. most of the literature you're likely to find is going to be answering a slightly different q uestion: Either (2a) whether NATO presence has improved the lives of Afghan citizens. it will be pretty difficult to find anyone arguing about the precise question posed by the resolution.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 53 of 129 www. a relevant consideration is their track record of efficacy to date. Can the affirmative t eam. but improvements a hundred years down the line are probably not. Instead.com Timeframe The resolution frames its question in the present tense. with the lives of Afghan citizens. The debates stemming from (2a). all things taken into account. Thus. probably a majority of the analyses put out by think tanks and similar . whether continued NATO presence will improve the lives of Afghan citizens. and our only real concern from a policy standpoint is with the future. While plenty of authors write about the impact the war has had on Afghans. But again. facts about the past are not irrelevant to questions about the future when deciding whether we should withdraw our forces in the near-term fu ture. for instance. literally understood . One final. there's also the question of the timeframe of improvement. improve the lives of Afghans in the long term? Or must they show that improvement is already occurring? The most intuitive answer here. Afghanistan will ult imately stabilize and. at least in any immediate or o bvious way.victorybriefs. one might plausibly think. For another th ing. correspond to (1c) and (1d) above. there are actually two separate questions of timeframe apart of the timeframe of the presence we're c onsidering. but unfortunately. For one thing. this is open to debate just be aware of it and think carefully abo ut what interpretation you want to adopt and what arguments will and won't be available to you under that interpretation. or (2b) in the case of literature about the withdrawal timeframe. I think.

more than it concerns the interests of the Afghan population. the effects of the war on US and NATO soldiers.sources concern US interests in the region. . This literature. does not provide a reason to affirm or negate. unless you can somehow tie impacts to the US or other NATO coun tries back to Afghanistan. even though it may p rovide reasons extrinsic to the resolution for withdrawing NATO forces or keeping them engaged. and the impact the war has had on the US economy.

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 54 of 129 www. mountainous terrain. The dominant explanation for these failures is the difficulty of Afghanistan's rough. It der ives plausibility. wh ich makes it hard for even the largest and best-equipped armies to uproot determined resistan ce. develop and arm ended up taking over the country and turn ing it . once the war was over (and the Soviet Union on the brink of collapse largely as a result). I think. and even m ore so after the September 11th attacks and subsequent invasion. its anti-Soviet allies. is draw your attention to a few major points of interest that you should research. with enormous assistance from the United States. The Soviet experience and its aftermath: This bit of history is pretty well know n and well remembered since the rise of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan during the 90's.victorybriefs. was successful at first. The short story is thi s: The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979. founding the city of Kandahar along the way Kandahar being most likely a corruption of its original name. starting at least with the Persian empi re of Cyrus and Darius. You will find this claim both propounded and criticized by many authors in the course of your research. from the fact that Afghanistan has been on the geographic al fringes of many of the greatest empires in history. What I will try to do. most notably by the Mongol and Timurid empires. and Islamic states li ke Pakistan that saw the fight as a holy war. The context: Where we are and how we got there I won't try to describe the entire history of Afghanistan. the British Empire in India and the Soviet Union in central Asia bot h abutted against and tried unsuccessfully to subdue the country. and the Macedonian empire of Alexander (who led his army on a brief campaign through the region. and understand: Pre-20th century Afghanistan: The dominant historical trope concerning Afghanist an is that the country has been a graveyard of empires. and better remembered. however. More recently. there are a plethora of much be tter sources on that subject easily available online. but was ultim ately repelled over the course of a decade by the Afghan mujahedeen. or even the last ten years thereof even if I knew enough to do so accurately.com II. the craziest wing of the re sistance we had helped to support. in the limited s pace available. read up on. Alexandria). point out that Afghanistan has been successfull y subdued several times before. Others. Unfortunately. an d argue that the position of the United States is in important ways disanalogous t o those of the British and Soviets. A great many critics predicted American defeat in Afghanistan for that reason befo re the war even began.

into an Islamic theocracy that permitted anti-Western terrorist organizations to operate freely within its borders until ultimately we had to go and clean up our own mes s. If you .

t he war in Afghanistan began less than a month after 9/11. By the time our attention shifted back to Afghanistan. this lack of attention was a result of our al most exclusive focus on Iraq. partly in Afghanistan and partly in remote.victorybriefs. why the north of the country has been so much more peaceful than the south for the last nine years). there are a number of clear features of the current situati on which you'll need to understand to debate this topic successfully. which became the dominant theater of combat from the ti me of our invasion in 2003 until very recently. so what still seems like current events to the rest of us may feel like history to you. toppling the existing government was not at all difficult. The current situation in Afghanistan is ver y much in flux. if you weren't following the news too carefully at the time. and other insurgent groups too much time to catch their breat h and regroup. and the only major mishap in the first days of the war was the failur e to capture Osama bin Laden at the Battle of Tora Bora. which gives a pretty goo d account of this whole chain of events. As would later be the case in Iraq. After 9/11: Much as this scares me. some of you reading this were only five or s ix years old in 2001. the surge in Afghan forces which began bac k in 2008 before Obama took office has continued apace. That said. b ut a few . and no one seems to agree on whether the trend lines on any number of vital fronts a re positive or negative. In large part. and is just an overall awesome movie. In any case. since the end of the Soviet war a nd controlled substantial parts of the country to begin with (hence. with limited US support. northwest regions of Pakist an. the insurgency there was alr eady consolidating de facto control over large areas of the country. Al Qaeda.com haven't already seen it. Again. The rise of the insurgency: Unfortunately. and with the nominal end of comba t operations in Iraq earlier this year.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 55 of 129 www. in large part. and gav e the Taliban. the general consensus is that we didn 't do nearly enough in the next few years to consolidate or protect our gains. Which brings us back to the present. Obama's Afghan strategy: A major component of Obama's campaign platform in 2008 was a promise of renewed focus on Afghanistan. go watch Charlie Wilson's War. where they remain strong to this day and now present a real and growing threat to the Pakistani government as well. with the end in 2008 of the Iraq troop surge. initially in the form of massive air campaign in support of rebel groups like the Northern Alliance which had already been fighting the Taliban. nothing comprehensive.

ISAF forces have undertaken a number of important offensive operations des igned . and acceler ated in 2009.highlights: The military situation: Since the current troop surge began in 2008.

and by the time you debate your first tournam ent. and they may simply throw more fuel on the fire of ongoing civil c onflict. and fighting street by street to clear out insurgen ts from urban areas. The political situation: As I mentioned earlier. Petraeus seems to be pretty universally well thought of.com to uproot major Taliban centers of power moving into Taliban-controlled areas. Whet her this is good news or bad news is up for debate. The economic situation: A hugely important geological survey released over the s ummer suggests that Afghanistan is sitting on enormous quantities of previously unknow n mineral deposits (most importantly lithium. so anything I say here will be out of date by the time you read this. and more recently in the city of Marjah. As a result. or end up enriching an elite at the expense of the general population. there will doubtless be plenty to say about it. The most notable recent operations have been first in Helmand Provi nce.victorybriefs. and the Taliban is doing the best it can to discourage people from voting so tha t whatever government results from this election won't seem any more legitimate. I'm writing this on the day of the Afghan elections. used for a number of high-technology applications). Hamid Karzai's government isn't very popular and is seen as largely il legitimate. and overseen both wars as the head of CENTCOM. he w as replaced with General David Petraeus. particularly air strikes. however enormous natural resource reserves have not proven to be a recipe for universal prosperity in other poor countries over the past century. in Kandahar ( both the city and the province. but his credentials and ability to command counterinsurgency operations are certainly pertinent questions in the context of the resolution. You should be familiar with all three operations. long considered major centers of Taliban power and popula r support). Military command: General Stanley McChrystal was recently removed as the command er of ISAF forces in Afghanistan after publically criticizing President Obama. Generals McChrystal and Petraeus have bot h worked to implement new guidelines limiting the use of airstrikes and other dangerous t actics with an eye towards minimizing civilian casualties and winning over more of the Afgha . worth something in the neighborhood of $1 trillion all told.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 56 of 129 www. Civilian casualties: A major source of tension between the US and Afghan governm ents has been the number of civilian deaths resulting from ISAF military operations. see king out camps and supply caches. The third such operation. who had previously commanded US forces in Iraq. began on September 15th. The short story is.

and remain an important issue. these guidelines seem to have been somewhat successful. So far. but civilian dea ths have by no means ceased. Negotiation and reintegration: A large part of current ISAF strategy in Afghanis tan is to convince more low-level insurgent fighters to give up the fight and reintegrate into Afghan .n public.

with all that in mind. The three biggest issue clusters are likely to be the following: Security: Of course.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 57 of 129 www. opinion is still sharp ly divided. tribal leaders.com society and the political process. III. There is some talk. Affirming and negating What the preceding summary ought to suggest to you. keep yourself posted. The Afghan government is also attempting to b ring more big players warlords. more than anything else. Almost everyone seems to agree that a complete withdrawal by 2011 will be next to impos sible. of finding a negotiated solution with the Taliban som e have even suggested offering the Taliban a power-sharing arrangement that gives them control over much of the south. So. but he has maintained a great deal of strategic ambiguity over the exact nature and firmness of that deadline. so again. under almost any of the interp retations outlined in Section I. and that continued commitment is needed to consolidate those gains. is that there are very few certainties about the present situation in Afghanistan. even if we are losing the war. The viability of all these approaches will likely depend quite a bit on the success of ISAF/Afghan military operations over the next month or so. will still want to argue that we've made subs tantial strides towards keeping the Afghan people safe. w hich is about the most that anyone in the literature advocates). Affirmatives. as well. and would be disastrous from the standpoint of the Afghan populace (so the best negative ground is probably to advocate a phased withdrawal beginning in 2011. Also on the security front is the question of . it's hard to see how that's an argumen t for immediate withdrawal unless (as only a few would argue) we're losing it so badly that victory is no longer a realistic possibility and our continued presence just pro longs the inevitable. however. The timeframe for withdrawal: Obama has talked quite a bit about 2011 as a deadl ine for wrapping up combat operations and beginning to withdraw.victorybriefs. although this proposal is almost certain to go nowhere a nd seems like a Very Bad Idea for all sorts of reasons. let's talk about arguments. Some authors further ar gue that the perceived lack of US commitment which has resulted from the frequent touting of the deadline has made the insurgency more resilient and less willing to negotiate. the first critical question on this front is whether the IS AF is winning or losing the war with the Taliban. That said. and on that question. Almos t any issue can be argued offensively either way (as an area in which NATO presence is proactive he lping or proactively hurting the citizens of Afghanistan). etc in the fold in order to coopt the resistan ce.

civilian casualties. though. which negatives will no doubt want to play up. can argue . affirmatives.

I think. the entire constitutional fram ework for the current government was imposed on Afghans from the outside. NGO's. and may or may n ot reflect their genuine underlying preferences or respect whatever rights of polit ical selfdetermination they might have. purely as regards these issues. they are mostly (and increasingly) t he fault of the Taliban rather than NATO forces. women can go to school and run for political office. but that's not to say that NATO's presence is a source of continued improvement. are the major topic areas on which debate is likely to focus. The recently announced mineral deposits. whether army officers or bureaucrats. simply don't understand Afghan culture or political tradition well enough to enact real. but it's quite a bi t easier to argue that NATO's continued presence isn't making things any better Western leader s. most Afghans are s till glad to be rid of them and have no wish to see them return.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 58 of 129 www. and the money bei ng poured into them might perhaps (although this is a big perhaps ) be better managed by the Afghan government. then.com that while civilian casualties remain high. Afghans can now vote in e lections. and despite their misgivings about NATO and the US. On the other hand. the Taliban was pre tty terrible. and leaving the Afghan government to its ow n devices against the Taliban would no Afghan civilians no favors at all in that r egard. World Bank or IMF. It's still hard to argue that. Fo r purposes of simplicity. no one much likes the current government either most of its members seem far more motivated by personal or factional interests than by the public good. as it has been for most of re cent history. Aid and reconstruction efforts have not been outstandingly successful. with plenty of good reasons to expect either outcome. Finally. Again.victorybriefs. corruption is nearly universal. and in many places law and order are purely nominal. or international bodies like the UN. let's conclude this section by condensing the preceding discus sion down to a simple list of the most likely stock arguments on the topic: . and courts no longer operat e under the harshest interpretations of Sharia law. justice and human/civil rights: On the one hand. The economy: Afghanistan remains desperately poor. meaningful reforms without alienating all t he key stakeholders who must be on board for such reforms to stick. might turn out to be either a blessing or a c urse. things are probably better than they were under the Taliban. Those. whose discovery was largely a result of Pentagon (and hence NATO) funding. Governance. things are not much better than they were under the Taliban.

which was pretty clearly a less than fantastic regime .Ways in which NATO presence might be improving the lives of Afghans: Overthrowing the Taliban.

especially for wome n Creating and strengthening a democratic (albeit imperfectly democratic) governme nt Fighting corruption and abuses of power in said government Strengthening the economy through improved security for foreign investment. and doing business directly with Afghan firms. preventing an allout civil war or return to theocracy Training the Afghan army and police to fight the insurgency Ensuring rights like freedom of speech. and so on. and not especially democratic regime Violating Afghan sovereignty and self-determination Feeding corruption through inept management of aid and contracting Needlessly killing Afghan civilians in the process of fighting the war Setting the stage for an economy based on either strife over. Providing aid and reconstruction assistance to rebuild infrastructure Ways in which NATO presence might be harming the lives of Afghans: Fighting the Taliban poorly allowing them to more harm than they should be able to Doing a similarly poor job of training Afghan forces Supporting a corrupt.com Successfully fighting the Taliban and other insurgent groups. Conclusion To reiterate. Otherwise. religion.victorybriefs. ineffective. encouraging trade. though. f eel free to email me at christian. or foreign exploit ation of natural resources at the expense of an impoverished population IV. If you have questions about anything I've said. go get to your research. and good luck in the month of October! . none of this is more than an extremely cursory introduction to the depth of literature and argumentation available to you on this topic. Hopefully.com. it has helped to clarify some background issues of interpretation.tarsney@gmail.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 59 of 129 www. and suggested some avenues for developing case positions and strategies.

Sir David has issued his unprecedented warning because he believed the public an d even members of the government had not "woken up" to the "enormous risks" which would result if the war was lost. the most powerful alliance in the world.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/6258028/Army-chief-wa rns-ofterrifyingprospect-of-failure-in-Afghanistan. 3 Oct. 2009.telegraph. 08 Sept.com PRO EVIDENCE WITHDRAWAL IRRESPONSIBLE NATO DEFEAT WOULD MEAN DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR CIVILIANS AS MILITANTS ARE STRENGTHENED. The recent airlin es plot has reminded us that there are people out there who would happily blow all of us up. <http://www. "Army Chief Warns of 'terrifying Prospect' of Failure in Afghanis tan. believe me they would use them. Sean. the chief of the general staff described the c onflict as "this generation's war" and added that failure by Nato would have an "intoxicating eff ect" on militant Islam. 2009. Sean.co. 2010. 2010. Web.html>. " (sa) NATO FAILURE WILL HAVE AN INTOXICATING EFFECT ON MILITANTS STRENGTHENING THEM.telegraph.co. Rayment. "Army Chief Warns of 'terrifying Prospect' of Failure in Afghanis tan.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/6258028/Army-chief-wa rns-ofterrifyingprospect-of-failure-in-Afghanistan. 3 Oct. In an unprecedented intervention. what next? W He said: "If al-Qaeda and the Taliban believe they have defeated us ould they stop at Afghanistan? Pakistan is clearly a tempting target not least because of the f act that it is a nuclear-weaponed state and that is a terrifying prospect. Rayment." Telegraph. Web. Sir David told The Sunday Telegr aph that if Britain and Nato failed in Afghanistan the risks to the western world would be "enormous " and "unimaginable"." (sa) .victorybriefs. In his first interview as the head of the Army." Telegraph. <http://www.html>. He said: "Failure would have a catalytic effect on militant Islam around the wor ld and in the region because the message would be that al-Qaeda and the Taliban have defeated the US and the British and Nato. 08 Sept.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 60 of 129 www. So why wouldn't that have an intoxicating effect on militants everywhere? The geo-strategic implications woul d be immense. Even if only a few of those (nuclear) weapons fell into their hands.

" But he made very cle ar that he does not see our involvement in Afghanistan as a humanitarian mission." The American Prospect. international isolation. "Listening to Afghanistan The American Prospect.washingtonpost.com. <http://www. In it. and the denial of basic human rights to the Afghan people -. "These documents do not provide a comprehensive look at the situation in Afghani stan. he declared. IS REPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUED VIOLENCE AGAINST AFGHAN CIVILIANS. who have been living under the U. and act immediately to ensure that there is a much better system of monitoring. Web. I'm struck by a desire to know what Afghan women. <http://www. Web. Ann. but this d oes not excuse NATO forces from their responsibility to protect civilians. 22 Dec." Washingtonpost.org/cs/articles?article=listening_to_afghanistan>. 2009.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2008/06/14/AR2008061401639.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 61 of 129 www. 2010. 08 Sept.Washingtonpost.offeri ng his unofficial view -described the political situation in Islamabad as "dysfunctional. 201 0.html?nav=rss_nation/special>. and compensation in place for Afghan civilians.com THE TALEBAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE TO WITHDRAW. Friedman. ( sa) LACK OF PAKISTANI PRESSURE. NOT NATO. 08 Sept.prospect. Tyson. "These leaks also show that the Taleban are responsible for the majority of the systematic human rights violations and violations of the laws of war in this conflict.org /en/news-andupdates/ afghanistan-leak-exposes-natos-incoherent-civilian-casualty-policy-2010-07-26>. 08 Sept.victorybriefs. <http://www. McNeill said the 50 percent increase in attacks in eastern Afghanis tan in April compared with the same month last year is "directly attributable to the lack of . "Afghanistan Leak Exposes NATO's Incoherent Civilian Casualty Policy Amnesty I nternational. The Washington Post Company. occupation for roughly eight years now. and -.especially women and girls. think would be best for their country. 2010. Ann S. 26 July 2010.amnesty. International forces operating in the country still have to give a full account of what their forces have done in the past. a return to Taliban rule would condemn thei r country to brutal governance. Web. "A Sober Assessment of Afghanistan . accountability. McNeill criticized Pakistani efforts to crack down on that threat. He also criticized efforts by the Pakistan government to negotiate peace deals w ith insurgents on the frontier. a paralyzed economy. saying past agreements have led to increased attacks across the bo rder in Afghanistan." Sam Zarifi said. "For the Afghan people.S. As the America n left debates. 15 June 2008." (sa) A RETURN TO TALEBAN RULE WOULD DEVASTATE THE AFGHANISTAN ECONOMY AND POLITICAL SOCIETY. I was reminded of that column after Obama's speech announcing his Afghanistan st rategy." Amnesty International.com.

(sa) . Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani. Pakistan's army chief. Pakistan and the United States have held in recent years on border problems." he said. has for four months failed to agree to attend a meeting that Afghanistan." "What's missing is action to keep pressure on the insurgents. For exam ple.pressure on the other side of the border.

Meanwhile.com NATO PRESENCE IS KEY TO STOP CHILD ABUSE. Web. 19 Sept.html>. But observers say the age-old ritual of man-boy predatory sex. <http://original. poor families sell their children." Antiwar. Kelley B. and a lack of enduring social institutions. preyed upon by the strongest the kind of wealthy. To withdraw prematurely would mean giving "a shot in the arm to jihadists everyw here. (sa) THE TALIBAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THREE QUARTERS OF CIVILIAN DEATHS THIS YEAR. We b. <http://www. corruption.000 injured in the first six mo nths of the year.Al Jazeera English. perpetrators rarely pay for their crimes.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 62 of 129 www. Mr Fox said. Meanwhile. 2010. and possibly nuclear.com. Nato and other p ro-government . The Taliban and other anti-government elements were responsible for more than th ree quarters of all civilian casualties. and have the resilience to see th e job through. 19 Sept. "Taliban Attack on Nato Base in Afghanistan Is 'repelled'" BBC. More than 1. the world would see "the return of the destructive forces of trans-national terror". They are the meekest.victorybriefs. <http://english. reenergising violent radical and extreme Islamism". the report said . (sa) THE UK DEFENCE SECRETARY LIAM FOX CLAIMS PREMATURE WITHDRAWAL WOULD DESTABILIZE THE REGION. 12 per cent of the casualties were attributed to US. and orphans are snatched off the street.net//news/asia/2010/08/201081075049886818. "The Rape of the Afghan Boys. consequences". maintain our resolve.200 Afghans were killed and almost 2.aljazeera. He identified the risk of civil war in Afghanistan creating a security vacuum an d the "destabilisation of Pakistan with potentially unthinkable regional. which is obliquel y condoned throughout Afghanistan because of a pervasive fear or indifference about prosecu ting it on any serious level. 19 Sept. has proliferated after decades of poverty. 2010. an increase from 53 per cent last year.Central & South Asia . The number of civilians killed or wounded in Afghanistan has reportedly soared b y 31 per cent in the first six months of this year. 10 Aug.bbc.co." he added. 13 Apr. the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said on Tuesday in its midyear report. All reports indicate tha t while bacha bazi and the abuse is illegal. 30 June 2010. Vlahos. " Al Jazeera English. powerful men who have benefited most from the Wes tern occupation and generous foreign aid.antiwar. "We must hold our nerve.com/vlahos/2010/04/12/a-deal-with-the-devil/>. "Afghan Civilian Toll up by a Third . 2010. according to numerous reports. 2010.uk/news/10457745>. 2010. Mr Fox argued that were coalition forces to leave now. Web.

(sa) .forces.

This report is a wake-up call. "The human cost of this conflict is unfortunately rising. "Report Shows Improvements in Afghanistan but Many Children Still Suffer." Comm on Dreams. (sa) CHILD MORTALITY HAS DECREASED BECAUSE OF NATO. Rahim. and said momentum is shifting to ward the United States and its partners. Ann. 28 Sept.unicef.N.commondreams. The U.800 households were involved in the nationwide statistical survey.Navy News News f rom Afghanistan & Iraq . Web.S. He said that the war effort in the Taliban heartland of southern Afghanistan is going more slowly than planned.org/infobycountry/afghanistan_23471 .com AFGHANISTAN IS IMPROVING CIVILIAN CASUALTIES FROM NATO HAVE BEEN REDUCED THIS YEAR. "UN: Afghan Civilian Deaths Rise Sharply CommonDreams. Gates told Fox News Sunday the war is a tough pull." UNICE F." said Staffan De Mistu ra. report showed a reduction in civilian casualties from NATO action.victorybriefs. Web. The first comprehensive study of the situation of children and women in Afghanis tan in nearly a decade has been released today. But it also shows that the majority of the country still has no access to clean water. Gearan. the top U. and other countries leave Afghanista n. and mortality rates remain high. 2004. It shows that fewer infants are dying and more c hildren are going to school.html>.org/headline/2010/08/10-4>. 10 Aug. although a small number of areas were still too dangerou s and inaccessible to reach. 2010." Navy TImes. who are supposed to take over when the U. Web. . He also acknowledged problems with corruption among the Afghan arm y forces. <http://www. "Report Shows Improvements in Afghanistan but Many Children Still Suffer.org.navytimes.Navy Times. "We are very concerned about the future because the human cost is being paid too heavily by civilians. which was carried out by the Afghanistan Central Statistical Office with support from UNIC EF. <http://www. All 32 provinces were covered. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday that the spike in U.com/news/2010/06/ap_afghanistan_gates_062010/>. 19 Sept.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 63 of 129 www. 2010." UNICE F. (sa) FOUR MILLION CHILDREN ARE NOT ATTENDING SCHOOL. 20 June 2010. Faiez.S. casualties in Afghanistan was expected and that people are too quick to say the war is going badly. 20 Sept. 28 Sept. More than 20. envoy in Afghanistan.N. 19 Sept. <http://www.undermining the coa lition's aim of improving security in the face of a virulent Taliban insurgency. 2010." (sa) THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN HAS IMPROVED THANKS TO NATO. "Gates Says Situation in Afghanistan Improving . but the overall rise in deaths indicated that the war is getting ever-more violent . 2010.

<http://www. The number of cases of polio and meas les has declined.html>. But there are still millions of girls who don't go to school and a large portion of the population has no access to clean water.2004. 2010. The survey shows that four million children are now attending school and there h ave been great improvements in health-related indicators. Diarrhoea causes the death of many children and health care for women in rural areas is limited. (sa) .unicef. Web.org/infobycountry/afghanistan_23471 . 19 Sept.

edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2007/Burnham_afghanistan.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 64 of 129 www. Web. the health system has shown improvement for many key measures in a majority of provinces.jhsph. Web." School of Pu blic Health at Johns Hopkins. 2010. 20 Sept.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2007/Burnham_afghanistan." School of Pu blic Health at Johns Hopkins. Driving these advances wer e increased availability of essential drugs and family planning supplies.victorybriefs. <http://www. professor of international health at the Bloomberg School of Public Health a nd director of the Center for Refugee and Disaster Response. From 2004 to 2006. Web.h tml>.h . said principal investigator Gilb ert Burnham.com AFGHANISTAN'S HEALTH SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED. Web. 5 July 2007. (s a) AFGHANISTAN'S HEALTH SYSTEM IS MAKING PROGRESS. (sa) HEALTH SYSTEM IMPROVEMENTS ARE ACROSS THE BOARD. 5 July 2007.jhsph. improved quality o f patient care. 2010. (sa) THE PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN RECEIVING ANTENATAL CARE HAS INCREASED. 2010. Results from assessments conducted by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloombe rg School of Public Health and the Indian Institute of Health Management Research show sub stantial improvements in the health status of the people of Afghanistan after decades of conflict.jhsph. MD. 5 July 2007.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2007/Burnham_afghanistan. "Substantial Improvements Achieved in Afghanistan's Health Sector. <http://www. For 2006. The delivery of public health service is improving steadily in Afghanistan as the Ministry of Public Health makes progress towards meeting its goals.h tml>. 2010.jhsph. the Afghanistan Health Sector Balanced Scorecard showed continued perf ormance improvements in health facilities across the country. increases in the number of female health workers providing care throughout the c ountry and relatively high levels of patient satisfaction. increased provision of antenatal care to pregnant women. upgraded skills among h ealth workers." School of Pu blic Health at Johns Hopkins.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2007/Burnham_afghanistan." School of Pu blic Health at Johns Hopkins. 20 Sept. These results demonstrate that improvements in health service deliver y have been achieved across the country in a short period of time. Despite these gains. <http://www. "Substantial Improvements Achieved in Afghanistan's Health Sector. health facilities in Afghanistan have room for improvement in several areas.h tml>. 20 Sept. "Substantial Improvements Achieved in Afghanistan's Health Sector. according to the research ers. 5 July 2007. <http://www. "Substantial Improvements Achieved in Afghanistan's Health Sector. 20 Sept. The results from the assessments were presented to the Ministry of Public Health in June.

jhsph. The percentage of children 12-23 months of age in rural Afghanistan who received the BCG vaccine to protect against tuberculosis increased from an estimated 56.2 in 2006. <http://www. More children are receiving vital childhood immunizations. 20 Sept. Over t he same time period.9. nurse or midwife assist with their last delivery increased from 6.5 in 2003 to 70.2 in 2006. The percentage of women in rural Afghanistan receiving antenatal care during pre gnancy from a skilled provider increased from an estimated 4.9 in 2003.7 in 2006.6 in 2003 to 32.tml>. 5 July 2007. Web. "Substantial Improvements Achieved in Afghanistan's Health Sector. according to the asse ssments." School of Pu blic Health at Johns Hopkins.0 to 18. (sa) MORE CHILDREN ARE RECEIVING LIFE-SAVING IMMUNIZATIONS. 2010. from 29.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2007/Burnham_afghanistan. The percentage of children 12-23 months of age in rural Afghanistan who received the full dosage of oral polio vaccine increased to 69. (sa) . the percentage of women in rural Afghanistan who had a doctor.h tml>.

2010.000 households nationwide to m easure access and utilization of health services. It found that the proportion of women receiving antenatal care increased from 5 percent in 2003 to 30 percent in 2006. Barnes. 5 Feb. Web. said HE Dr. Web. (sa) FORMER TOP MILITARY COMMANDER OF AFGHANISTAN SAW IMPROVEMENTS.com INFANT MORTALITY RATES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY. 20 Sept. Despite many challenges.000 in 2006.reliefweb. 2007." ReliefWeb.reliefweb. also commissioned by the Ministry of Public Health . 26 Apr.000 fewer infants are dying each year compared to during Taliban rule. underserved and marginalized ar eas across the country." ReliefWeb. 2010. Web. Similarly." ReliefWeb. <http://www.int/rw/rwb. (sa) AFGHANISTAN'S HEALTH MINISTER SEES IMPROVEMENTS FROM PRE-2001 RULE.victorybriefs. indicates a 25 percent improvement in overall quality of health services since 2004.News . Mohammad Amin Fatimi. (sa) FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES ARE USED MORE OFTEN NOW. <http://www. the proportion of pregnant women who received attendance by a skilled health worker increased 5 percent to nearly 19 percent. "New Study Finds Marked Improvements in Afghanistan's Health Sector. 20 Sept. <http://www.nsf/db900SID/EGUA72MQQX?OpenDocument>. This means that 40. Infant mortality rates in Afghanistan declined from an estimated 165 per 1. 20 Sept." Stripes. A health facility assessment. according to preliminary findings of Johns Hopki ns University (JHU) household survey.Stripes. 2007.000 l ive births in 2001 to about 135 per 1. 26 Apr. 2010.nsf/db900SID/EGUA72MQQX?OpenDocument>.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 65 of 129 www.nsf/db900SID/EGUA72MQQX?OpenDocument>.. but there is a long way to go to provide access to basic health services for Afghans in far remote. Public Health Minister of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. 26 Apr.reliefweb. . The JHU evaluations give us some encouragement that the Government has achieved real successes.int/rw/rwb. "McChrystal Sees Improvement in Afghanistan . "New Study Finds Marked Improvements in Afghanistan's Health Sector. there are clear signs of health sector recovery and prog ress throughout the country. Julian E. "New Study Finds Marked Improvements in Afghanistan's Health Sector. The JHU as sessment which surveyed more than 600 health facilities each year since 2004 and used a B alance Score Card (BSC) to measure different aspects of quality of services . JHU conducted the community survey of more than 8. 2007.found improveme nts in virtually all aspects of care in almost every province. The proportion of c ouples who were using a modern form of family planning increased from 5 percent to 15 percent in 3 years.int/rw/rwb. Continuing progress will be difficult without a firm commitment by the international community to increased and secure financing for the sector.

" McChrystal said . 2010. "I do not say now it is deteriorating. The top U. a view that represents his most optimistic assessment yet. while difficult to measure." (sa) .98659>. 20 Sept.stripes. pointed to signs of stability that. Web. Army Gen. military commander in Afghanistan said Thursday that security there is no longer deteriorating.S. meeting with reporters in advance of a NATO mee ting here.2010. <http://www. "I still will tell you the situation in Afghanistan is serious. Stanley A. indicate that Af ghans also see improvements in many areas in commerce and daily life.com/news/mcchrystal-sees-improveme nt-inafghanistan1. McChrystal.

com SOME PROVINCES ARE EXPERIENCING VERY LITTLE INSURGENT ATTACKS. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. and he thanked Bush and the United Sta tes for all that you have done for Afghanistan. There is more interaction between Afghans and their government than in the past.victorybriefs. senior U. discussed increased tensions alon g Afghanistan's border with Pakistan. Today.org/index. offi cials posted in Afghanistan told Pentagon reporters today. Nangahar borders Pakistan. Karzai said life was better in his country.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=306:poppyfreenangarharprovince-shows-afghanistan-improvements>. just east of Afghanistan's capi tal city.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=306:poppyfreenangarharprovince-shows-afghanistan-improvements>. (sa) POPPY FARMING HAS BEEN ERADICATED IN PARTS OF AFGHANISTAN. (sa) THE PROVINCE OF NANGARHAR IS POPPY FREE NOW. 20 Sept. Web. 2008. Gregory Allison.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 66 of 129 www. Kabul. 26 Sept. briefed President Bush and Afghan President Hamid Karzai via video teleconferenc e earlier today. a region that has bee n declared poppy-free and experiences little insurgent-generated violence. 2010. Gerry. 26 Sept. Gilmore. State Department and military leaders.org. Afghan farmers in Nangarhar province now grow onions." SupportOurTroops.S. <http://www. 2010. Shawn Waddoups and Army Lt. 20 Sept. noting the myriad government-provided improvements consisting of new buildings. 2008." SupportOurTroops. The report was in contrast to a Pentagon briefing earlier in the day in which Na vy Adm. sold on the black market and used to fund terrorist groups. <http://www. Web.org/index. Gerry. 2008. "Poppy-Free Nangarhar Province Shows Afghanistan Improvements. wheat and other food crops . <http://www. Gilmore. Nangarhar province has been declared by a United Nations body as being po ppy free. roads.S. respectively.supportourtroops. 26 Sept. Waddoups said. "Poppy-Free Nangarhar Province Shows Afghanistan Improvements. of Provincial Reconstruction Team Jalalabad that operates in Nangarhar. I'll be able to wipe out the poppy crop. The governor did so by issuing an ultimatum to growers: plow up the poppy fields . Col. 20 Sept. Gilmore. During the news conference. Waddoups recalled Nangarhar's Gov. offi cials. Waddoups said. Gul Agha Sherzai telling him about a year ago. 2010. Poppy eradication is a major goal of the United Nations because the plants are p rocessed into heroin. the U.org. Mike Mullen. .supportourtroops. Karzai is in Washington for meetings with Bush and other senior U. Things are looking up in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province. Web. Gerry. he said.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=306:poppyfreenangarharprovince-shows-afghanistan-improvements>.S.supportourtroops.org." SupportOurTroops. "Poppy-Free Nangarhar Province Shows Afghanistan Improvements. or go to jail.

Meanwhile. who's also commander of the 935th Agribusiness Development T eam that serves Nangarhar province. bridges and other infrastructure. But.' It takes time for crops to grow.quick fix. (sa) . of course. the reconstruction team hopes to see the development of hydro-electri c dams to generate power that can be used to establish food-processing factories and creat e much-needed jobs. is a viable alternative (to poppy growing). and in some of the rural and remote areas. it's not a . The agriculture piece. irrigation is a problem.schools. Alli son said. said Allison.

"He was very positive about the employment. told Canada AM on Wednesday that an Afghan elder in the volatile Panjwaii district pr aised a roadbuilding project there that employs about 400 Afghans. 20 08.ca. Web.5million project.com/world/article141095. Top Canadian and Afghan provincial officials held a ceremony Monday to celebrate the $4.ctv. the use of the road. Gates was quick to point out there would not be any premature discussion of succ ess. Sen. 20 Sept. 20 Sept.CTV News. 20 Sept.5-kilometre stretch of paved road when co mpleted in October.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 67 of 129 www. Barbara. (sa) ROAD PROJECTS ARE PIVOTAL TO THE AFGHAN ECONOMY. <http://www. Ferguson. Paved roads will help Afghan farmers move their produce to market more easily -and it will make it tougher for the Taliban to plant roadside bombs. Colin Kenny. "Senator Says He Sees Improvements in Afghanistan .ca/CTVNews/CanadaAM/20080409/afghan_senator_08040 9/>.ece>.ctv. There are plans to eventually pave about 22 kilometres of road in the district. The project is being carried out using manual labour. the US Commander in Afghanistan." CTV. "Senator Says He Sees Improvements in Afghanistan . Citing reports from General David Petreaus. "Gates Sees Surge Success in Afghanistan . but added that the workers came under harassmen t from the Taliban. I think there is a general feeling that there has been some progress in that area. citing a new road project and better co-operation. 2010. 17 Sept. . Gates said his personal impressions during a recent trip confirmed these assessments. <http://www. which are responsible for th e vast majority of injuries and fatalities suffered by Canadian soldiers these days. 20 08. A Liberal senator who just returned from Afghanistan says he's definitely seen i mprovements there since his last visit. 9 Apr. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters late Thursday the surge strategy i n Afghanistan is beginning to work. he said." he said.Arab News.com ROADS ARE BEING BUILT ACROSS AFGHANISTAN. 9 Apr." Arab N ews.ca. 2010. As I say. which is considered the Taliban's heartland. Web. A SIGNAL OF IMPROVEMENT." CTV. which will create a 6.CTV News. There may be a greater move in the right direction' in four to six m onths. Web. It was a projec t that Afghans wanted for themselves. (sa) THE SURGE IS WORKING. <http://arabnews.victorybriefs. 2010. Gates' upbeat assessment comes as the Obama administration faces growing skeptic ism with the progress and direction of the war.ca/CTVNews/CanadaAM/20080409/afghan_senator_08040 9/>. rather than the heavy equi pment that would be used in Canada. it's early. 2010. chair of the Senate Standing Committee on National Security an d Defence.

Gates cautione d that the US won't make the mistake in Afghanistan of predicting success too soon. 20 Sept.com/world/article141095. 2010.ece>. (sa) THE SURGE HAS IMPROVED BOTH NATO AND AFGHAN MILITARY. Herve Morin. but said that both he and Petraeus remained cautious. Web. The evidence that General Petraeus is seeing so far suggests to him that it is and both on the civilian and the military side. not just the military side. (sa) . "Gates Sees Surge Success in Afghanistan . He cited the dramatic growth in the numbers and quality of Afghan security forces as one cause for optimism. Barbara. 17 Sept.but it will have to be sustained. The les sons of Vietnam and the disastrous Soviet occupation of Afghanistan loom nearly as large as the prolonged US military involvement in Iraq. Ferguson. 2010. Gates told the joint press conference at the Pentagon with his French counterpart." Arab N ews.Arab News. <http://arabnews.

S." With the help of U. when it was clear that the United States was bogged down in Iraq and lacked sufficient resources to fight on two fronts. NATO was . "Yes." (sa) THE VIOLENCE IS BECAUSE NATO CAME IN TOO LATE. He is the first leader of the post-Taliban government." Karzai said. 2010. "Afghan President Touts Improvements. 20 Sept." he said. Megan.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 68 of 129 www. the c ountry now boasts dozens of radio and television stations.nytimes." Karzai said. And then it misrepresented the situation our allies would find th ere. we still have problems.victorybriefs. Locke. Soldiers to bring peace. "Yes. has been one of extreme achievements. we are still a very poor country. and other Western nations. healthcare. About 27 percent of the country's leaders are women.com/2007/07/10/opinion/10chayes. on many accounts. Sarah. But not until 2005. no matter what I do. and the economy are all indicators that Afgha nistan is progressing.army. NATO moved peacekeeping forces into Kabul and parts of northern Afghani stan. and miles to go before we can call ourselves sufficient. <http://www. 2010. Karzai said. "The bad thing is they all are against me. as well as newspapers. In 2003. Chayes. In a hangar filled with more than 1. NOT BECAUSE NATO IS BAD IN ITSELF. "We have more women in our Parliament than many [other] countries have.mil/news/2010/05/17/39282-afghan-president-touts-improvements-thanks-soldiers-at-for t-campbell/>. Thanks Soldiers at Fort Camp bell. Karzai said Afghanistan can be a great tourist destination in the future. Women's roles in the predominantly Muslim country also indicate the changing mindset. <http://www.S. did Washington belatedly turn to NATO to take the Afghan south off its hands. Web. However. Web. the leader recognized that much must be done to ensure the prosperity of his nation. Instead of one government-owned radio and television station. "NATO Didn't Lose Afghanistan. the story of Afghanistan.200 Soldiers and spouses. "It looks like the free press doesn't like presidents anywhere in the world. The leader also lauded the free press that the liberation of Afghanistan from Ta liban rule provides. 08 Sept. 17 May 2010. Karzai concluded h is trip to the United States by focusing on the improvements in Afghanistan since the fall of t he Taliban almost 10 years ago." The United States Army." The New York Times. 10 July 2007." Karzai joked of Afghanistan's media outlets. more than the U. "Since then. We have miles to go. Karzai said.html?ex=1341720000&en=0cfae1 e4ece4 1eaf&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss>.com PRESIDENT HAMID KARZAI SEES VAST IMPROVEMENTS IN HIS NATION SINCE TALIBAN RULE. Advances in education.

begged for peacekeepers. Afghanistan's president. In fact. NATO should have been brought in from the start and given the kind of muscular p eacekeeping mission it learned to conduct in the Balkans. Hamid Kar zai. It was the bloodiest and most belligerent situation since the fall of the Taliban. top Afghan officials could be blown up in downtown Kandahar w ithout drawing much of a reaction from either the Afghan government or ours. the situation had been deteriorating sinc e late 2002. in those early years when they coul d still have made a difference. It was told. in effect. that it would simply need to maintain the order the United States had established and to help with reconst ruction and security. (sa) . spread throughout the country. resurgent Taliban were making a concerted push to enter the country from P akistan. By 2005.basically sold a beefed-up peacekeeping mission. Notorious drug lords governed the three main southern provinces to which we were dispatching our alli es. By 2004. and intensive combat between American forces and Taliban fighters was taking place n orth of Kandahar. as was clear from the ground.

S. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . it grew largely from images associated with the sacking of the Briti sh residency in Kabul in 1842 and the systematic slaughter that accompanied the retreating colum n of 12. specializing in international security. Ashley J. specializing in international security. the U. defense.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 69 of 129 www. Military superiority aside. Ashley J.' General Petraeus.graveyard of empir es. obscures the critical fact that the Raj not only defeated the Afghans subsequently during . It is tough territory. which colored m any subsequent beliefs about the Pashtuns as hardy and invincible warriors who cannot be subjug ated. April 2009. and if the perception is that we are there simply to impose ourselves in a long-term occupa tion.we do have to be mindful of the h istory of Afghanistan. no single idea has done more damage to the alliance's ability t o muster renewed purpose than the notion that Afghanistan has always been the . Carnegie Report.' President Obama alluded to this fear when he noted that . repeated this notion in hi s otherwise impressive presentation at the Munich Security Conference in February 2009. This tragic incident.victorybriefs. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . CT THE IDEA THAT AFGHANISTAN IS UNCONQUERABLE ARISES FROM A SINGLE HISTORICAL INCIDENT. IS DENIED BY OTHER HISTORY. too. by a margin of 82 percent to 4 percent. The Afghan public. that's not going to work in Afghanistan.com WE RE WINNING THE WAR/CURRENT STRATEGY IS EFFECTIVE NATO'S FUNDAMENTAL POSITION IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT OF THE SOVIETS OR THE BRITISH ALMOST EVERYONE STILL HATES THE TALIBAN. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. Tellis. Carnegie Report. opp ose the Taliban and desperately seek success from Western military forces. much to its advantage. And there's a fierce independence in Afghani stan. This is especially ironic because the thesis is false. defense. Tellis. presence in Kabul is seen less as occupation than support for the Afgha n people. and Asian strategic issues. April 2009.000 civilians and 4. and Asian strategic issues. That Afghanistan is the place where empires go to die derives from some streams of populist British Indian historiography in the aftermath of the First Anglo Afghan War. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. In this context. Neither the British nor Soviet experience mimics the current situation.000 British-Indian troops.

the Second and Third Anglo Afghan Wars (successfully occupying Kabul at various points during tha t process) but also that it did so despite vast and enervating distractions within its Indi an empire. CT .

and in the f ormative years of modern Afghanistan. which was mi litarily stressed and internally enervated. Although local revolts made life difficult during some interregnums. specializing in international security.com HISTORY DOES NOT PREDICT DEFEAT. Unlike the Raj. extensive periods of successful foreign dominance including by the Achaemenids. April 2009. Michael E. Even apart from these specifics.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 70 of 129 www. who were tactically capable but were actua lly confronting a peer competitor that was far more powerful and fighting securely from beyond the theater. Tellis. or the Soviets. the country has been conquer ed by at least sixteen distinct empires.victorybriefs. It alleviates or eliminates virtually all of my earlier w orries about what would happen if a change of command were made at this crucial moment in the war. confronts no adversary comparable to itself. to its advantage. Ashley J. Neither the British nor the Soviet experience in Afghanistan mimics the situatio n that the United States and its allies find themselves in currently. O'Hanlon. 24 June 2010. can bring it to bear with r elative ease in Afghanistan. and Asian strategic issues. The Brookings Institutio n. and even the Sikhs decisive ly undermine the notion that Afghanistan is some destined burial ground because its inhabitants have never subjected themselves to outside rule. Timurids. and. defense. the United States today has global military superiority. The announcement that General David Petraeus will now be nominated to succeed Mc Chrystal is enormously reassuring. most conspicuously during the early Muslim dynasties. WILL ENHANCE THE FFICACY OF THE RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT. is largely recognized as such. Consequently. i s present in Kabul not as an occupier but as a supporter of the Afghan people and. Mauryas. Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institution. most important. Ghaznavids. however. the la rger historical record simply does not bear out the claim that Afghanistan has always been an im perial necropolis. the Hotaki period. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . Kushans. Carnegie Report. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. CT PETRAEUS GOOD HE WAS THE RIGHT CHOICE TO REPLACE MCCHRYSTAL. From the beginning of recorded history. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. Petraeus is . Petraeus a Reassuring Choice in Afghanistan . the circumstances that made Afghanistan the gr aveyard in these earlier instances and it was certainly not so in the case of the Raj and whe ther it was in respect to the Soviet Union is at least arguable plainly do not carry over to the current American involvement within the country.

of course remarkably accomplished in this kind of complex operation. he understands much of the detail of Kandahar. and Petraeus will be no panacea. What Petraeus lacks in immediate intimacy with the Afghanistan mission. which remain uncert ain. CT . But he will do an excellent job. he is very familiar with Afghanistan. he has good rap port with President Karzai by all accounts. he compensates for with brilliance in unde rstanding how to carry out such campaigns (not to mention good rapport with the White House!) Non e of this improves battlefield trends in Afghanistan. We have a long ways to go in this war. and the key players there of various nationalities. relative to his predecessor. the crux of this summer's coming focus of effort. none of this changes the underlying policy debate about our prospects in Afghanistan. which remain difficult.

Washington Post. Washington Post. Reasons For Hope On Afghanistan . which is to create a . Consider: 1. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. The U.000 this year). 26 June 2010.S. O'Hanlon. O'Hanlon.victorybriefs.com MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE WAR IS OVERLY PESSMISTIC. Growth trajectories for the Afghan army a nd police remain . for additiona l trainers. Washington Post. and the number of Afghan officers graduat ing from training has more than doubled since last year. Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institute. it is time to refocus on poli cy. Reasons For Hope On Afghanistan . 26 June 2010. THE TRAINING OF THE AFGHAN ARMY IS STILL ON TRACK AND PROGRESSING WELL. But allies have deployed more than 5. Some tactical operations there may be resc heduled this summer as U. exceeding the pace expected. is encouraging.000 soldiers are in Afghanistan.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 71 of 129 www. trainers has risen. Michael E. and they are often more wrong t han right unless they are presented with greater nuance. or our expectations. The province is in better shape than a year ago in terms of the return of commerce and agriculture and the reduction in violence against citizens. CT HELMAND AND MARJA ARE BOTH PROGRESSING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. Our allies have not quite met their promises. DESPITE INFLATED INTIAL EXPECTATIONS. That was practically an era ago regarding Afghanistan. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. Michael E.Kandahar offensive' is delayed. and a major offensi ve in the classic sense was never promised in Kandahar. CT EVEN THOUGH ALLIES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF PROMISES TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TRAINERS. This complaint is strange: The U. OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS ARE PROGRESSING WELL AND ON TIME.S.000 additional combat troops this year. Reasons For Hope On Afghanistan . Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institute. Several recent critiques paint only part of the picture. Stanley McChrystal's stil l-relevant words. Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institute. But the trend in Helmand. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned on Sunday about a national rush to judgmen t that the Afghanistan war is somehow failing and that the overall narrative about the war has become too negative. an increase of nearly 30. The number of U. Even Marja is slowly progressing. O'Hanlon. but Gates is st ill right. troop buildup remains slightly ahead of schedule (95. The . where we have added a number of forces since 2009.S. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. Michael E. military erred in raising expectations about its big February operation in Marja. With the drama over Wednesday's change of command receding.S. reinforcements arrive but there is no fundamental deviation from th e plan.rising tide of security' in Gen. The military needs to do a better job document ing this progress. a midsize town in Helmand province where violence remains too high and Afghan governance t oo weak. 26 June 2010.

CT .partnered' with coalition units meaning that they plan. McChrystal's many positive legacies. nearly 85 percent of Afghan army units are .on schedule. train and fight together. if not yet good. This is one of Gen. patrol. Perhaps most important. The number of key districts whe re security conditions are at least tolerable. In southern and eastern Afghanistan last mo nth I saw many signs of the Afghan army's willingness to fight. is up modestly.

Marines continue to be attacked. Some worry that President Obama's ambiguity about the timetable hurts the war ef fort. but they have already managed to deny the Taliban the use of Marjah as a base.victorybriefs. and the president should keep saying so. O'Hanlon. HAS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED SECURITY. the two most lethal parts of the insurgency Karzai made no offer to suspend the co nstitution. HAS NO INTEREST IN CUTTING A DEAL BEHIND NATO'S BACK. Even relative optimists can understand why such flexibility is valuable. which helps fund the insurge ncy. six months into Operation Moshtarak. Reasons For Hope On Afghanistan . but the p resident is not about to cut a deal with the enemy that amounts to a negotiated surrender. 2 September 2010 Prior to the Marine-led assault that began in February. drawdown is likely to be gradual. the U. O'Hanlon. Michael E. reflected a weakening of will to win the war. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. Washington Post. Tod ay. Jeane J. Attac . resign or expel NATO troops. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. The Talib an had been in charge. If the strat egy is bearing fruit by next summer. Washington Post. Coalition aircraft had even been told not to fly over it because it was too dangerous. Marjah had been complete ly outside the control of the Afghan government and the international military force. But there i s still a logic to the vagueness: It keeps pressure on Afghan officials to deliver.S. He followed the jirga with a trip to Kandahar. and his half brother still plays a big role in the corruption in Kandahar. WE'LL STAY THE COURSE. Marjah was also a center of the global opium trade. Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institute. Reasons For Hope On Afghanistan .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 72 of 129 www. Michael E. or jirga. Boot. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. Max. the Marines and their Afghan partners are solidly establish ed in the heart of Marjah and are gradually expanding their control outward. Some wonder if Karzai's May peace conference. Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institute. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . 26 June 2010. it reminds American s that this war will not last forever and it sustains the president's flexibility to adjust the war p lan to conditions. I opposed that deadline and the president's lack of clarity about its meaning. But at that jirga which included no representatives of the Taliban or the Haq qani network. Karzai's perfo rmance is mixed. and they had used it as a staging ground for attacks elsewhere in southe rn Afghanistan. wher e he asked local leaders for patience and sacrifice in the coming difficult times. IF THINGS ARE GOING WELL IN A YEAR. 26 June 2010.com AT KARZAI LACKS COMMITMENT TO FIGHTING THE TALIBAN: HE'S COMMITTED. CT MARJAH OPERATION WAS SUCCESSFUL. CT AT PERCEIVED LACK OF US COMMITMENT: PROVIDES OBAMA WITH POLITICAL FLEXIBILITY.

as a result. CT . are down sharply.ks in neighboring districts. The operation appears to b e a bust only because of the exaggerated expectations of immediate success raised by commander s early on.

That doesn't mean he will necessarily succeed. but his s trategy offers a much greater likelihood of progress than any conceivable alternative. Lashkar Gah. when he appointed Petraeus to replace McChrystal President Obama has affirmed his support for an amb itious war effort. That is hardly out of the norm for counterinsurgency operations. Barring some catastrophic failure. To see where Marjah may be heading. I visited one such area. Max. Th at's quite an achievement in a province that has long been the country's most dangerous. it seems unlikely that he will pull t he rug out from under his newly appointed four-star commander. and finally this June . Now the district center is bu stling and secure enough that it's possible to walk around without body armor. then in the more prolonged review in the fall. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. w hich always take time. CT IT'S BOTH POSSIBLE AND NECESSARY TO DEFEAT THE TALIBAN THE ALTERNATIVE IS . It had been a virtual ghost town before the Marines arrived last summer. Max. concerted way. 2 September 2010 This concern ignores the fact that three times since taking office during his init ial policy review in early 2009.com PAST MILITARY OPERATIONS HAVE REVITALIZED GUTTED. are also fairly peaceful. Boot. TALIBAN-CONTROLLED REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY.' he told one interviewer.I t could be as few as a couple thousand troops. now says tha t in July 2011. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . The Mar ines with whom I spoke believe that Marjah is on a positive trajectory but that it will require 1 8 months to become truly stable. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. Haji Zahir. then. In all likelihood. at least on paper. CT OBAMA'S SUPPORT FOR THE WAR IS HIGH THE POLITICAL WILL EXISTS TO GET THE JOB DONE IN AFGHANISTAN. Petraeus will have the time and political backing necessary to tackle the Taliban and the sources o f their appeal in a serious. Even Vice President Biden. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. 2 September 2010 These highly publicized setbacks created a lasting impression of failure that ig nores the strides made since February including the recent replacement of the first district governo r. one needs to look at other districts i n central Helmand that the Marines had entered earlier. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . Jeane J.transition' but not necessarily a massive withdrawal of forces .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 73 of 129 www. Jeane J. to be better qualified.victorybriefs. there will be a .small footprint' approach. Other towns in cent ral Helmand such as Garmsir and the provincial capital. the most voc iferous advocate within the administration of a . Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. with a candidate who appears. Nawa. Boot.

Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations.to disrupt. 2 September 2010 There is nothing inevitable about such a dire outcome. Victory is still eminentl y achievable with a strategy that focuses not only on defeating the Taliban but also on reducing the abuses that fuel their movement. dismantle.HANDING OVER AFGHANISTAN TO AL-QUEDA. and to defeat al-Qaeda. but it is the only way to keep the Taliban from returning to power an eventuality that would make a mockery of Ob ama's commitment . Max. CT . Jeane J. Such a strategy may appear to be overly ambitious. Boot. The Council on Foreign Rela tions.' The Taliban and al-Q aeda are bound together tighter than ever. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . Only by defeating the former can Petraeus ensure tha t Afghanistan does not again become a safe haven for the latter.

Dexter. according to a United Nations survey released Wednesday. The New York Times. a jump of 14 percent over the previous year. T he survey found that the Taliban and other insurgents killed more than twice the number as the Americ an-led coalition and Afghan government forces did last year. the main cause of civilian fatalities caused by the American and other NATO forces. U. IT'S THE FAULT OF THE TALIBAN. CT THE TALIBAN IS TRYING TO MINIMIZE CIVILIAN CASUALITIES. homemade bombs and executions. By contrast. Foreign Correspondent. Since taking over in June as commander of American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. In the past. Says . Foreign Correspondent. Filkins. the number of civilians ki lled by the NATOand American-led coalition and Afghan government forces in 2009 fell 28 percent. Filkins. The report said 2. But the most striking aspect of the report was the shift in responsibility for the deaths of Afghan civilians. The growing number of civilian deaths reflects the intensification of t he Afghan war over the same period: American and NATO combat deaths jumped to 520 last year. McChrystal has issued several directives aimed at winning over t he Afghan population. from 2 95.412 civilians were killed in 2009. Under the new rules. about a quarter of the total number. 13 January 2010.630 civilians killed by insurgents two-thirds of the total rep resented a 40 percent increase over the previous year.N. to 596. mostly by suicide bombings. coalition for ces caught in a firefight with insurgents may not order an airstrike on a house in a residential area unless they are in danger of being overrun. Princ ipal among these directives was the tightening of the rules governing airstrikes.566 were wounded. AND LEAVING AFGHANISTAN ON ITS OWN AGAINST THE TALIBAN WOULD ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE FOR CIVILIANS. The 1. The cause of the 186 other deaths could not be dete rmined. Anot her 3. Last year was the most lethal for Afghan civilians since the American-led war be gan here in late 2001. The report attributed the drop to measures taken by the American-led coalition to re duce the danger to civilians. Dexter. airstrikes carried out in the heat of b attle in residential areas accounted for several widely publicized episodes of civilian deaths. and the Taliban are more active than at any point in the past eight years. Gen. NOT NATO NATO FORCES HAVE BEEN STEADILY REDUCING CIVILIAN DEATHS UNDER NEW DIRECTIVES. New York Times '09 Deadliest Year for Afg hans.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 74 of 129 www.com CIVILIAN CASUALTIES LOW/DECREASING WHILE CIVILIAN DEATHS ARE UP. sometimes at the cost of forgoing attacks on Taliban fighters.victorybriefs. with the Taliban and other insurgent groups causing the vast majority of n oncombatant deaths. Stanley A. New York Times '09 Deadliest Year for Afg .

.The utmost steps must be taken to avoid civi lian human loss in martyrdom operations. Using the jih adist term for suicide bombings. Mullah Muhammad Omar . Says . put out a directive to his troops. For their own part.A Book of Rules. Cal led . even the Taliban's leaders have implored their fighters to m inimize the harm to Afghan civilians. imploring them to try to win over Afghan civilians. The New York Times. the Afghan Taliban's leader.hans. U.N. 13 January 2010. the Taliban manual said.' CT . Last summer.' its character was slightly different from the American directives.

quoting troops in the field. but modestly and in any event McChrystal favored allowing troops in danger to call in supporting firepower. CT AT CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: NEW POLICY IS SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING THEM WITHOUT INCREASING DANGER TO US TROOPS. According to the new direct ive.Futility in Afghanistan.victorybriefs.' June 20]. Director of Research and Senior Fellow. who took the villagers for insurgents. Dexter. But some night operations have gone awry. Directives to restrict the use of firepower when civilians may be present increa se risk to our troops. one of the touchiest subjects among Afghans. the infamous Rolling Stone article did as well. New York Times '09 Deadliest Year for Afg hans.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 75 of 129 www. American commanders said this week that they would tighten th e rules on night raids. American and NATO troo ps often move into villages at night because of advantages like surprise and because they typi cally have equipment. Washington Post. after Afghan intelligence officers fired on rioters incensed by rumors that Americans conducting a night raid had desecrated a Koran and defiled local women. Filkins. Reasons For Hope On Afghanistan . Foreign Policy at t he Brookings Institute. Will has raised this concern [. 13 January 2010. American and other NATO forces should explore alternatives to night raids. civilians alarmed by the presence of gun-toting men in their villages have grabbed their own guns. against which firepower is tactically irrelevant. Michael E. But evidence sug gests it's not true. the raids can cause serious problems. Says . On some occasions. On the same issue. that allows them to see with very little l ight when the insurgents cannot. who are often offended by foreign soldiers moving through their villages or into the ir homes after dark. Meanwhile. George F. only to be shot by American or NATO forces. 26 June 2010. WHICH HAVE BEEN AMONG THE GREATEST SOURCES OF TENSION AND CIVILIAN DEATHS. Even absent gunfire. the policies have reduced civilian casualties from coaliti on forces. U.N. Roadside bombs. an important step toward winning greater support from Afghans. overwhelmingly remain the most frequent cause of casualties to coalition troops. like night-vision goggles. CT . resulting in the de aths of civilians. O'Hanlon. The New York Times. like cordoning villages at night and then moving in at sunrise. And even raids that went relatively smoothly have caused ill will am ong Afghans.com NATO FORCES ARE WORKING TO LIMIT THE USE OF NIGHT RAIDS. Foreign Correspondent. The percent of casualties from firefights is up. Eight Afghans w ere killed and about a dozen were wounded in a town in the southern province of Helmand on Tues day.

These lucrative jobs are handed out to prime contractors who are able to navigate a Byzantine legal process and then hire shady subcontractor firms that give kickba cks to Afghan power brokers. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. NATO PRESENCE STRENGTHENS FIGHTING CORRUPTION IS KEY TO AFGHAN STABILITY. undercut[ting] efforts to establish . const ruction. amounting to an estimated $14 billion a year (out of a total GDP of $23 billion) . for example. but it can certainly be reduced to less catastrophic proportions thr ough simple steps such as building more accountability into Western contracts for logistics.. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . and other tasks.Mone y is ammunition. . and corruption. Boot. more than $1 billion a year in cash is leaving Afghanistan via flights to Dubai. the House report noted. but the cost is steep. They will also have to be more careful about how they employ their resources to prevent their own largess from inadvertently fueling t he insurgency. It may be impossible t o stop the graft altogether.' Often the contractors will attack people traveling on the highways or living around th em to ensure safe passage of their goods. fuels warlordism. will travel with 400 to 500 guards in dozens of trucks armed with heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades (RP Gs).com AFGHAN POLITICAL SYSTEM VIABLE. Jeane J. This process. The U. they simply pay off the Taliban en route. As not ed in a June report from the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. extortion.A typical c onvoy of 300 supply trucks going from Kabul to Kandahar.victorybriefs. When the contractors can't fight their way through.S. This process has led to the proliferation of private security fir ms.' Foreign aid is Afghanistan's chief source of revenue. But so much is currently being stolen and misspent that according to the Washington Post. As General Petraeus said in his recently released Counterinsurgency Guidance: . and it may be a significant source of funding for insurgents . Max. don't put it in the wrong hands. 2 September 2010 If they are to succeed in stabilizing Afghanistan.. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. is happy not to deploy scarce soldiers for such assig nments. international forces will hav e to do more than simply spread out across the countryside. which deploy veritable armies of gunmen to safeguard trucks carrying Western supplies.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 76 of 129 www.

CT .popular confidence in a credible and sustainable Afghan government.

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 77 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com THE TROOP SURGE IS KEY TO FIGHTING CORRUPTION IN THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT EXPERIENCE IN IRAQ PROVES. Boot, Max. Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . The Council on Foreign Rela tions. 2 September 2010 If coalition forces, working with honest Afghans (yes, they do exist), can reduc e the overall level of corruption, they can do much to reduce the insurgency's appeal. As things stand, the Taliban posture, rather hypocritically, as the incorruptible guardians of Islamic virtue fighting against the crooks who dominate the current government and against the foreign soldiers who are seen as their enablers. Reduce the level of corruption and popular anger will be directe d where it belongs against the Taliban, with their unpopular, antediluvian ideology and histo ry of brutal, horrifying violence. That is a difficult task, but it is no longer as unthinkabl e as it was when NATO had only 50,000 troops in the country. With 140,000 foreign troops and 130,000 sol diers in the Afghan National Army, which is widely viewed as relatively clean ISAF has newfound leverage to take on not only the Taliban but also the abusive practices that enhance thei r appeal. And in David Petraeus, ISAF has a commander uniquely skilled in the delicate art of fig hting alongside a local government while working to reform it. That is precisely what he did in Ir aq, where the enemies were not only al-Qaeda and other Sunni insurgent groups but also Shiite death squads that operated from inside the Iraqi Security Forces. Senior officials in Prime M inister Nouri alMaliki's government, such as former Interior Minister Bayan Jabr, were implicate d in the worst Shiite excesses. In 2007, Petraeus worked closely with U.S. Ambassador Ryan Croc ker to pressure Maliki to act against Shiite extremists, notwithstanding their connecti ons to the highest levels of his own government. These efforts were so successful that in 2008 Mali ki, on his own initiative, launched a successful military operation against the Shiite extremis t stranglehold on Basra, Iraq's second-largest city. Many of the erstwhile Shiite extremists remai n on the scene today (indeed, Bayan Jabr himself is finance minister), but they are no longer e ngaged in murderous attacks, because the overall situation has become much more stable and peaceful. There is no reason, in principle, why it shouldn't be possible to produce a simi lar transformation in Hamid Karzai's Afghanistan. Admittedly, Afghanistan is less developed than Iraq; literacy levels, for instance, are much lower. But there are plenty of Afghan technocrats, many o f whom have

lived abroad for long stretches and who would eagerly join the government if the y could do so without becoming part of a culture of corruption. In some ways, the odds of succ ess are actually better than they were in Iraq because the level of violence is so much lower. (A fghanistan experienced a record level of civilian casualties in 2010, but it was still 15 t imes less violent than Iraq in the pre-surge year of 2006.) In fact, the greatest obstacle to victory i n Afghanistan may not be the conduct of Afghanis but rather the perception that the Obama administrati on is headed out the door and that it won't take the time to carry out difficult, lengthy tasks s uch as governance reform. CT

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 78 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com HUMAN RIGHTS HIGH WOMEN ARE MAKING POSITIVE PROGRESS IN AFGHAN SOCIETY. Lemmon, Gayle Tzemach. Fellow and Deputy Director of the Women and Foreign Polic y Program. While the World Scales Back its Afghanistan Ambitions, Afghan Women Push Forward . Huffington Post. 15 September 2010. At the same time the United States is scaling back its goals for Afghanistan, wo men in the country are scaling up their own ambitions. In arenas ranging from medicine to the milit ary, from small business to civil society, women are speaking up for themselves and tackling eve r-larger aspirations. While problems loom large in a country in which female literacy rat es struggle to top 15 percent and rampant insecurity leads many families to keep their daughters an d wives indoors, women are making progress. Though their efforts are often overlooked as the world trains its focus on the exits in Afghanistan, they are, quietly and slowly, crea ting change in their families and their country. CT THE ROLE OF WOMEN IN AFGHAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LIFE IS INCREASING. Lemmon, Gayle Tzemach. Fellow and Deputy Director of the Women and Foreign Polic y Program. While the World Scales Back its Afghanistan Ambitions, Afghan Women Push Forward . Huffington Post. 15 September 2010. On Wednesday a group of women will gather at the Women's Garden in Kabul to .pro mote women's participation in the upcoming election.' Despite security risks and thre ats to their campaigns, more than 400 women are running in Saturday's parliamentary vote, a f igure that is up twenty percent from five years ago. Women leaders won a hard-fought battle to be heard at July's Kabul Conference. Now their goal is to keep the pressure on their own gov ernment and the international community, which has promised that peace with the Taliban will not come at the price of their rights. .We are not going to be silent,' said Suraya Pakzad, a wo men's rights activist and founder of Voice of Afghan Women. .We don't want to lose things to gain thin gs to lose the rights of women, the right to education, the rights of media.' Meanwhile, as the discussions about Taliban negotiations and graceful exit strategies wind on, plans for the future push forward. The Ministry of Public Health is now launching a study to judge just how much matern al health progress Afghanistan has made these past eight years. The hope is that the study will show a significant drop in maternal mortality thanks in large part to the nation's 2500 midwives whose training program has now become a regional role model. On the business front, Af

ghan women entrepreneurs are fighting to find access to lucrative foreign markets. One Kabu l clothing exporter is now regularly shipping her shawls to the United States, while two soccer ball makers are preparing to send their wares to New York in time for the holiday season. And th e fashion firm Kate Spade and the non-governmental organization Women for Women International a re coming together to create jobs for more than 1,000 women by the end of 2013. CT

victorybriefs. Afghanistan possesses large reserves of minerals such as iron ore.com ECONOMY STRONG AFGHAN ECONOMY HAS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED SINCE NATO INTERVENTION. increasing trade.After the NATO's attack there have been some great starts. Bharoocha. April 21. Additional bridges were built across the Amu Darya river. whilst the iron percentage is estimated up to 63 to 65 per cent which is the highest percentage in the world. ISRA University. In the north. reservoirs and wells are being constructed to bring water to the loca l population and farmers. opened up trade with Tajikistan. Hajji Gak mine i s estimated to have two billion tons of iron. and importing Uzbek electricity to Mazar-e-Sharif along a power line that would be extended to Kabul by the World Bank. Pathak. According to Afghan President Hamid Karz ai. Overall. The Hajji Gak mine. which agreed to provide electricity to the province. which runs along the b order between Afghanistan and Central Asia. pipelines. Afghanistan needs mining jobs to improve the country's living standards. the mil itary commander of Kunduz. reducing tariffs. CT AFGHANISTAN HAS ENORMOUS MINERAL RESOURCES WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO JUMP-START THE AFGHAN ECONOMY. 1 September 2010. and local people are provided with greater access to medical assistance. thorium. Wahedullah Shahrani said that the natural resou rces of Afghanistan are the biggest asset to the future of Afghanistan. gas. which is known as the best known iron oxide deposit in Afghanistan. Yet ano ther Great Game in Afghanistan: The US and China . 2009. will be introduced to the world market in 2010. Observer Research Foundation. Lecturer. CT . There was com petition between Pakistan and Iran to attract Central Asia's trade with the Arabian Gulf countries to their respective ports. while T urkmenistan pledged to supply natural gas to Herat city. Speaking to reporters in London the Afghan Mines Minster. Sriparna. Asim. various kin ds of projects are underway. facilitated by the NATO-ISAF PRTs: schools are being rebuilt with the mentoring or assistance of ISAF engineers. General Daud. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. New Delhi. Iran began to electrify Herat and Western Afghanistan.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 79 of 129 www. . General Dostum tied up similar deals with Uzbekist an. irrig ation ditches. allowing children to resume their education.' Businessme n from Lahore and Karachi were clamouring to sell their consumer goods in Kabul. Junior Fellow. infrastructure is being repaired and/or built to facilitate mobility an d communication. coal and copper which are largely untapped.

But concerns over China's business ethics and its refusa l to provide military support in Afghanistan have some experts worried Chinese investments wi ll create more instability.' Lynch said. because they have not sent thei . and international troops to keep their investors and mining projects safe. Lynch said. that China has made prog ress on the two coal-fired power plants and roads it promised to build. could add more than $200 million to the Afghan national budget each year and cre ate an estimated 30. and in fact has insisted on such investments from China. had hoped would kickstart a legitimate Afghan economy.victorybriefs. they've left a trail o f heartbreak. less wealth. in Logar province in eastern Afghanistan. Afghanistan sho uld be the new frontier for Chinese investment. supports the Aynak investment project. Politics Daily. COMPENSATE FOR THE INADEQUACIES OF CHANA'S COMMITMENT TO THE AFGHAN ECONOMY. China's $3. Growing fears China will bring more hea rtbreak. With little indication since then. While the Chinese are responsible for their own security at Aynak.' CT CONTINUED NATO PRESENENCE IS NEEDED TO SECURE CHINESE INVESTMENT.S. research fellow for Near East and South Asia at the National Defense University Institute for National Strategic S tudies. Lynch said. China has failed to deliver on promises of new roads and electricity f or the Afghan people. The Chinese have relied on U. to Afghanistan . Somerville. offered hope of development and stabi lity in Afghanistan. raising concerns that Ch ina may not be the engine the U. Medill News Service. less wealth. rarely contributing to local communities like it promises and often leaving the land scarred with ecological devastation. The U. to Afghanistan . Growing fears China will bring more hea rtbreak. . The Aynak mine. . 27 August 2010. Afghanistan is consistent with its ventures in other parts of the world.S.com CHINA IS NOT A GOOD LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PARTNER FOR AFGHANISTAN.S. With an estimated $1 trillion in untapped minerals. China's deep pockets and voracious pursuit of e nergy resources make it an ideal candidate to spur mineral development and generate a legitimate source of revenue for the Afghan government.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 80 of 129 www. Medill News Service.4 billion investment in the Aynak copper mine is the largest in Afghan history and. Heather.They don't deliver. according to the U.The Chinese have a checke red record at best. when the contract was signed in 2007.S. . 27 August 2010. Politics Daily. Institute of Peace. Somerville. though.' said Tom Lynch.The Chin ese have done nothing to contribute to the local economy. Heather.000 new jobs. China has proved an unreliable investor in natural resources. and when they do. Three years after securing a multi-billion dollar contract to develop Afghanista n's mineral reserves.

S. Although U. diplomats have a sked for Chinese forces in Afghanistan.S. leading Afghanistan expert at Congressional Res earch Service. China traditionally only sends milit ary outside its borders for United Nations peacekeeping missions. CT . the nonpartisan research arm of government. ISAF (International Sec urity Assistance Force.' said Kenneth Katzman.r own troops Afghanistan. U.Directly or indirectly. according to a Congressional Research Service report on Afghanis tan released Monday. the coalition of troops in Afghanistan) is in some way trying to secure A fghanistan for these projects. they hire Afghan National Police. . China has made no commitment to provide military even in a noncombat role. and NATO troops are responsi ble for building and training the Afghan police.

Assuming the growth rate slows.victorybriefs. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE COSTS AND TIMEFRAME OF EXTRACTION. profits of foreignh companies and environmental damage not c ounting domestic Afghan labor) is between 25 and 50 percent of the value of the minerals . The NYT helpfully described this sum as being equal to $38. It would be useful to note that this is a gross number. This means that the r evenue from the minerals will average between $312.8 billion a year. then the money going to Afghanis would be between $500 billion and $750 billion. CT .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 81 of 129 www. it does not subtract the co st of extracting the minerals nor does it consider that these resources would likely be extracted ove r many decades.5 percent annually.php/blogs/beat-the-press/how-much-is-1-trillionin-afghanistan/ The media have been highlighting projections produced by the military that show that Afghanistan may have $1 trillion of mineral wealth. WILL HAVE AN ENORMOUSLY POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE AFGHAN ECONOMY AND PEOPLE.482. If we assume that the cost of extracting the minerals (e.5 billion and $18. but it is growing at the rate of 2. It would be helpful to put this figure i n some context. How Much Is $1 Trillion in Afghanistan? 1 5 June 2010.com RECENTLY DISCOVERED MINERAL DEPOSITS.cepr. If this money is earned over a 40-year period (Saudi Arabia has been producing oil for 80 years). http://www.76 for every person i n Afghanistan. foreign trained technicians.1 million.net/index.50 and $470 per person per year.g. then i t comes to between $12. This is stil l likely to have a substantial impact on Afghanistan's economy. Center for Economic and Policy Research. foreign produced equ ipment. Afghanistan's population is curr ently 29. Afghanistan's population will average about 40 million over this period. since its current GDP per capita is just $800 on a purchasing power parity basis.

Ashley J. Tellis. these three components will be necessary to rebuild Afghan state capacity and increase its legitimacy. the .achievable' rather than comprehensive goals.com NEAR--TERM WITHDRAWAL BAD US INDECISION AND PERCEIVED LACK OF COMMITMENT IS PUSHING KARZAI TOWARDS CUTTING A DEAL WITH THE TALIBAN. and the effective implementation of a classic counterinsurgency strategy. dismantle. CT LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN IS NEEDED. this ob jective cannot be achieved without a durable commitment to that country. Carnegie Report.perpetual drift. sustained commitment. April 2009. the n eed to disrupt. This calculus was only reinforced by what appeared to be vacillation in Washington about U. and Asian strategic issues. war aims in Afghanistan: loose talk by senior American officials about the . acknowledges this when it notes that imme diate action. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . defense. the idea of a formal rapprochement with his Pashtun adversaries appears appealing because of the benefits it promises for his reelection. and the need for an .victorybriefs. the need t o pursue .S. If these . AND WILL YEILD SUCCESS. and eventually destroy extremists and their safe havens alone. Tellis. April 2009.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 82 of 129 www. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . refreshingly. Carnegie Report. and substantial resources will be required to reach these g oals. The Obama administration. Moreov er.insufficiency' of the military instrument for defeating the Taliban.exit strategy' in order to avoid . specializing in international security. defense. Taken together. For President Hamid Karzai. Ashley J. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. specializing in international security. namely. the indecision in the United States and among the Western alliance partners about prosecuting t he war resolutely a problem now being addressed by President Obama only induces Karzai to accentuate reconciliation because of his calculation that if Western retrenchmen t is inevitable. a substantial dedicati on of resources.ultimate' need f or reconciliation. he is probably better off making a separate peace with the Taliban while he still c an. and Asian strategic issues.' All embodied a sliver of truth but gave rise regrettably to a pervasive defeatism that sways Karzai further in the direction of trumpeting reconciliation with his challenger s. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. The analysis in this report emphasizes the need to get the focus right: even if American goals in Afghanistan are defined in the most minimalist fashion imaginable.

Defeating both to include the ir worst constituent groups accordingly becomes necessary. CT . and this task cannot be achieved without an integrated counterinsurgency effort centered on state building in partnership with the Afghan people. the transfer of popular allegiance from the insurgency to the government will then become possible and with it the eventual defeat of al-Qaeda and the Taliban.tasks can be completed successfully. neither can al-Qaed a be defeated without success against the Taliban nor can the Taliban be treated as if they ha ve only local interests completely divorced from the global jihad. Any attempt to artificially separate these two groups as targets of Ame rican attention will simply not succeed: after eight years of war in Afghanistan.

by signaling American impatience in regard to th e mission in Afghanistan. will not work either. merely in order to permit . Simply put. to persist in their prevailing ambivalence because the current disp ensation in Kabul will be quickly assessed as perishable and hence unworthy of their enduring supp ort. Whether through reconciliation with the Taliba n.improve and exit' strategy but only by a serio us commitment to building an effective Afghan state. Cordesman.com CONTINUED COMMITMENT IS KEY NEGOTIATION OR QUICK WITHDRAWAL BOTH MEAN HANDING AFGHANISTAN OVER TO THE CRAZIES. Attempting to mitigate these problems by transiently accelerating American support to Afghanistan. such as Iran and Pakistan. will require a decision to .to defeat Al Qaeda and combat extrem ism. to simply wait Washington out as they protect their own interests in the interim through means that will ultimately undermine the professed American intention . such an approach would betray all the indicators that moti vate the insurgents. the bystanders. Burke Chair in Strategy. Carnegie Report.' Success in Afghanistan. in turn. it will have exactly the effect of spurring the insurgents to outla st the international coalition. encouraging important Afghan bystanders. or through a predominant concentration on counterterrorism. CT IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL GUARANTEES THAT WE LOSE THE WAR TO THE TALIBAN. which. and to the eventual outcom e in Afghanistan more generally. or through a passing increase in American investments in Kabul. defense. an ironclad determination is required to stay involved in assuring Afghanistan's security ov er the long term. commitment to that country. Anthony H. Entertaining the notion of an exit strategy. Center for Strategic a . Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. Ashley J. is the durability of the U. is particularly dangerous because. as President Obama unfortunately di d earlier. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . Arleigh A. cannot be achieved through any cheap solution s focused on delivering temporary amelioration an . and inducing Islamabad to eschew relinquishing its support for the Taliban because o f its expectation that the insurgents may once again be required to protect Pakistan's interests i n the regional security competition that will ensue after the United States departs. What will make the greatest difference on this issue.invest and endure' over the long haul. April 2009.S.' as the administration' s White Paper phrased it. therefore.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 83 of 129 www.us and our partners to wind down our combat operations. Tellis.victorybriefs. specializing in international security. and the regional states. whose cooperation is necessa ry to defeat the Taliban. and Asian strategic issues.

16 July 2010. and analysis can set clear deadlines for this war. and our allies perceive it as a deadline. discussion. CT . No amount of planning. are defined in terms of unrealistic expectations.nd International Studies. and the impact of US and al lied actions. and/o r if the GIRoA and the Afghan people. The same will be true if the timing of the campaign. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . One thing is clear: The war will be lost if 2011 is treated as a deadline. the Pakistani government and people.

Boot. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. Max. The Dutch have already pulled out. Major ethnic groups such as the Tajiks. Hazara. Max. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . The Council on Foreign Rela tions. The Taliban have no appreciable support among the 58 percent of Afghans who are not Pashtuns . and educating their daughter s. making a deal with a still-undefeated Taliban is a recipe not for peace in our t ime but for a resurgence of the terrible civil war that tore the country apart in the 1990s. listening to music. 2 September 2010 Since being chased out of power in the fall of 2001 by a combination of Northern Alliance foot soldiers and American bombs. Jeane J. Max.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 84 of 129 www. Jeane J. 2 September 2010 Some rural Pashtuns might see a return of the Taliban as an acceptable alternati ve to the kind of predatory misrule they suffer from today. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. and they will fight to stop it. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . Boot. CT MAJORITY OF THE AFGHAN POPULATION HATES THE TALIBAN LEAVING WITHOUT DEFEATING THEM WOULD SPARK ANOTHER MASSIVE CIVIL WAR. the Canadians say they w ill follow suit next year. Boot. Jeane J. Under such circumstances. They will not stand for it. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . and Uzbeks regard a return to Taliban rule much as Jews would regard a return to Nazism. Although the tripling of NATO forces in the past year represents a serious impediment to their ultimate prospects for victory. but we have the time. Thus. the Poles in 2012. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. you have the watches. 2 September 2010 Some imagine that the consequences of allowing the Taliban back into power could be mitigated . wha t incentive is there for the Taliban to compromise? As they like to say. they can take heart from evidence that the will of the foreign forces is weakening. C T SPECIAL FORCES INSUFFICIENT WE NEED AN ARMY ON THE GROUND. But such a deal would be significantly less appealing for the vast majority of Afghans who take for granted freedoms that the Taliban woul d quickly quash freedoms like flying kites.com PROSPECT OF IMMINENT NATO WITHDRAWAL MAKES THE TALIBAN LESS WILLING TO COMPROMISE OR INTEGRATE INTO THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. the British by 2015.victorybriefs. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. the Taliban (along with associated groups such as t he Haqqani network and the Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin) have staged an impressive resurgence wi th Pakistan's help.

Nor have they prevented the frontier regions of Pakistan or large swaths of Somalia from becoming a terrorist sanctuaries today. In a chaotic environment that will likely resemble 1980s Leb anon on opium. No one has offered a compelling explanation of how long a long-range. but they are not a substitute for one. Special Operations raids are an integral part of a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy (they are occurring every night in Afghanistan). CT . how could American Special Forces gather the intelligence they need to strike ef fectively? And what targets would they hit anyway? The Taliban lack fixed assets such as tanks or factories and have a seemingly inexhaustible supply of leaders to replace those who are killed or captured.by a small number of American Special Operations troops backed up by precision a irpower. precision-str ike option could credibly deter the Taliban from actions detrimental to American interests. But air strikes did not prevent Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist sanctuary prio r to 9/11.

power brokers. Supporting these men would be like paying off a mafia protection racket: it may deliver short-term results but only at the cost of making the situation worse in the lon g run. effectively.victorybriefs. and warlords to fight the Taliban on our behalf? This strategy is superficially more attractive. the idea of striking deals with local leaders meaning.com WE CAN'T TURN OVER THE FIGHT AGAINST THE TALIBAN TO LOCAL AFGHAN LEADERSHIP THEY HAVE THE WRONG MOTIVATIONS. Nothing is more likely to cause another Taliban takeover than an American strategy that ced es even more power and authority to these widely despised power brokers. a course of action we have foll owed before. Local stron gmen do not have the same interest we have in creating a safe. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . They seek to loot as much money and accumulate as much power in their local fiefdoms as quickly as possible. starting with the decision by the Bush administration after 9/11 to make common cause wit h the Northern Alliance. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations. Boot. Jeane J. 2 September 2010 What about. This was seen as the height of pragmatism. Max.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 85 of 129 www. But this approach failed before and it will fail again. secure Afghanistan that will be resist ant to Taliban advances. drug dealers. It is. the interests of the rest of the country (and o f the West) be damned. after all. CT . alternatively. allowing us to deploy relat ively few troops to Afghanistan.

Carnegie Report. Ashley J. yet. statements by a spokesman purporting to r epresent the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan were particularly telling.S.S. defense. and Asian strategic issues. specializing in international security. And the tribal chiefs. certainly will not take any steps in that direction so long as the Karzai regime. is confronted by an inescapable paradox: any meaningful accommodation with those reconcilable segments of the rebellion will only come a t the tail end of political-military success in Afghanistan and not as a precursor to it. airbase in Bagram demonstrate that the T aliban remain strong. village elders. when it is least necessary. Ashley J. therefore. who either support the insurgency or are sitting on the sidelines currently but are suscept ible to being reconciled in principle. the situation on the ground will remain daunting. A B ottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan . .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 86 of 129 www. reconciliation will become possible but. Regardless of the truth of the matter.victorybriefs.S. Mullah Omar and the Taliban leadership have decisively rejected any reconciliati on with the government of Afghanistan. ironically. puppet at a time when we have an upper hand in the battlefield?' Whatev er comes of reconciliation efforts. defense. Parachini. policymakers should not assume that insurgent leaders will be eager for peace talks. The coalition. and Asian strategic issues. Tellis. Policy analysts at the RAND Corporation. are not seen to be winning in their long-run ning battle against the Taliban.com NEGOTIATED WITHDRAWAL BAD NEGOTIATING WITH THE TALIBAN IS A NON-STARTER THEY THINK THEY'RE WINNING. Wali and John V. Deadly recent insurgent attacks on Kandahar. Reconciling With the Taliban?: . 15 July 2010. and street fig hters. if such success is attained.upper hand' they claim. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . Kabul and the U. Both President Hamid Karzai and the Taliban denied an al-Jazeera news report tha t Karzai had recently met with the insurgent leader Sirajuddin Haqqani together with senior P akistani officials. Whether or not the Taliban and other insurgent networks enjoy the . Providence Journal. Shaaker.Why [would Haqqani] g o to Kabul to meet the U. and its Western supporters. April 2009. CT WE HAVE TO WIN THE WAR MILITARILY BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL NUMBERS OF TALIBAN SUPPORTERS WILL BE WILLING TO COME TO THE TABLE. CT NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE TALIBAN ARE A TERRIBLE IDEA Tellis. specializing in international security. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International P eace. U.

Negotiating with the Taliban who are convinced military victory is within sight is t he worst possible approach to stabilizing Afghanistan. April 2009. Ashley J. a long-term co mmitment to building an effective Afghan state is the only way to achieve victory and defend U. Though costly. Carnegie Report. CT . Tellis warns that U.Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan . and one that would fail.S. signals of impatience and a desire for an early exit could motivate insurge nts to maintain a hard line and outlast the international coalition. nat ional security objectives.S.

' If the Taliban can be convinced that they hav e no prospect of winning. Jeane J.First you have to knock them o n their backs. they might actually crumble with surprising speed. Max. 2 September 2010 Getting a significant portion of the Taliban to give up their arms will require inflicting more military defeats on them. Boot. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at t he Council on Foreign Relations.com TALIBAN WON'T ACCEPT POLITICAL COMPROMISE UNLESS THEY'RE FORCED TO THEY HAVE TO BE MILITARILY DEFEATED. The only kind of deal the Taliban might accept while they are still standing strong would cede them dictatorial power across much of southern and eastern Afghanistan.victorybriefs. As one ISAF officer said to me. CT . They would th en use this power base. The Council on Foreign Rela tions. Afghanistan: The Case for Optimism . to pursue what they view as Allah's will b y mounting an assault on other parts of the country. . as they did in the f all of 2001. as they did in the 1990s. then you can give them a hand up.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 87 of 129 www. starting with Kabul.

Providence Journal. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. Parachini. The metrics on the Taliban and other insurgents remain ambiguous. It is equally unclear. Enticing low. Wali and John V. Policy analysts at the RAND Corporation. but he has been car eful not to say that it has been reversed. a strong and thoughtful effort to reach out to and reintegrate the men at the bottom of the insurgent heap would help establish peace and security in Afghanistan. and other international forces will never be abl e to deploy enough security forces to provide sufficient forces to reassure the population. 15 July 2010. it may still be possible to persuade their foot soldiers to lay down their arms. Shaaker.com MISCELLANEOUS REINTEGRATING LOW-LEVEL INSURGENT FIGHTERS IS THE BEST WAY TO WEAKEN THE TALIBAN. A B ottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan . or kill or capture enough insurgents to turn the tide. Shaaker. CT THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF THE TALIBAN IS UNCLEAR THEIR GAINS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HALTED. the U. It is far from clear that ISAF and the US have as yet won any tactical v ictories they can exploit in ways that bring lasting stability and transition to capable Afghan go vernance and security forces. That effort must be accompanied by attention to fundamental issues like unemployment. Parachini. however. The Afghan government.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies. or either take or hold ground in areas where they have l .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 88 of 129 www. But even if the top insurgent leaders have no incentive to negotiate with the Af ghan government. General McChry stal seems to be correct in saying that their momentum has been halted. even if the leadership won't come in from the co ld.victorybriefs. 15 July 2010. Anthony H. BUT FURTHER COMMITMENT IS NEEDED TO ACTUALLY DEFEAT THEM. Providence Journal. A B ottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan . that the insurgents can hold ou t against any concentrated offensive. Policy analysts at the RAND Corporation. a well-planned program to reintegrate insurgents and mid-level commanders could still succeed i n boosting morale within Afghan society while weakening it among the insurgent elite. political grievances and security guarantees. Burke Chair in Strategy. CT MILITARY POWER ALONE IS INSUFFICIENT TO DEFEAT THE INSURGENCY WE NEED TO PROVIDE INSURGENT FIGHTERS INCENTIVES TO REINTEGRATE. Even if insurge nt leaders pound their chests and vow to fight on. Wali and John V. 16 July 2010. Most evidence suggests that the rank-and-file fighters are more motivated by the need to suppo rt their families than by Taliban ideology. Thus. Cordesman. Arleigh A. ISAF reporting shows the ambiguities in these pattern s in considerable detail.and mid-level insurgents to le ave the battlefield is critical to achieving security. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War .

CT .imited or no ethnic and religious support.

Anthony H. As one experienced aid worker put it.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 89 of 129 www. The challenge is to c o-opt the power structure. It means accepting a major role for existing power brokers. The central government is not going to be empowered at the expense of key regional. but what will make GIRoA . if for no other reason than t hat there is no credible alternative. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . Efforts to reshape governance to create a modern Western structure of . The issue is not Western concepts of governance. and create conditions where they can move forward if they choose to do so. deal with them.good enough' by Afghan popular standards.effective governance' that s omehow transform all of Afghanistan are simply not going to work. The war is not going to be won by treating the power structure of Afghanistan as if it did not exist or as if it could be radically changed in the course of the next few years. ethnic. 16 July 2010.it i s to find their worst grievances. . Center for Strategic and International Studies.' This means setting far less ambitious goals for reform and government ca pacity. and sectarian divisions. CT . in ways that the Afghan people can accept as a better option than the Taliban.com FUNDAMENTALLY TRANSFORMING AFGHAN POLITICS IS IMPOSSIBLE THE BEST WE CAN DO IS CREATE SOMETHING THAT AFGHANS REGARD AS PREFERABLE TO THE TALIBAN. or suddenly eliminate the role of tribalism and key families. geographic. Burke Chair in Strategy.victorybriefs. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. Arleigh A. and control its worst elements and behavior. Cordesman.

which has so far cost the lives of more than 320 British and more than 1. 19 Sept.co. "Nato Rockets Kill 12 Afghan Civilians. give a blow-by-blow account of the fighting over the last six years. 08 Sept.guardian. 14 Feb.org/headline/2010/08/10-4>. Two Nato rockets aimed at Taliban insurgents in Helmand missed their target toda y. The files. revealing how coalition forces have killed hundreds of civilians in unreported incidents. The number of civilians killed in the Afghan war jumped 25 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period last year. 2010. two gunmen with explosives strapped to them . Declan. The incident occurred in Nad Ali. an insurgent-infested area where British troop s are operating." The Guardian.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 90 of 129 www. 20 10. <http://www. Davies. 25 July 2010." Comm on Dreams. 2010. Walsh. Shortly after the U.uk/world/2010/jul/25/afghanistan-war-logs-military-leaks >. killing 12 civilians sheltering in their home and dealing a sharp blow to hopes that civili an casualties would be avoided in the largest western-led operation of the nine-year Afghan war. Web. were a "US responsibility". "Afghanistan War Logs: Massive Leak of Secret Files Exposes Truth of Occupation.guardian.commondreams. which were fired by a sophisti cated missile system.org. <http://www. Nick. (sa) THOUSANDS OF LEAKED MILITARY REPORTS INDICATE HUNDREDS OF CIVILIANS WERE KILLED IN UNREPORTED INCIDENTS. 2010.000 records of incidents and intelligence reports about the conflict obtained by the whistleblowers' website Wikileaks in one of the big gest leaks in US military history. A Ministry of Defence spokeswoman said the rockets. Rahim. Faiez.com CON EVIDENCE NATO KILLS CIVLIANS NATO ROCKETS KILL CIVILIANS. released its report in Kabul. The disclosures come from more than 90.uk/world/2010/feb/14/nato-rockets-kill-afgha n-civilians>.N. Web. Taliban attacks have soared and Nato commanders fear neighbouring Pak istan and Iran are fuelling the insurgency. the United Nations said in a report Tuesday. 19 Sept.victorybriefs. "UN: Afghan Civilian Deaths Rise Sharply CommonDreams. with insurgents responsible for the spi ke. <http://www. 2010. Web. 000 US troops. which were made available to the Guardian. 10 Aug." The Guardian. the New York Times and the German weekly Der Spiegel.co. (sa) CIVILIAN DEATH TOLLS HAVE RISEN SHARPLY THIS YEAR. A huge cache of secret US military files today provides a devastating portrait o f the failing war in Afghanistan.

W hen guards fought back. (sa) . the men detonated their explosives.tried to storm the office of an international security company in the capital. killing two Afghan drivers.

which concluded that a disproportionate number of civilians were killed as a result of what seems to have been faulty intelligence by German forces.ca/world/story/2008/10/01/french-cable-afghanistan.000 injured in the first six mo nths of the year.stm>.com AFGHAN CIVILIAN DEATH TOLL IS UP BY A THIRD. 2008. 2010. <http://www. particularly i n a fierce counter insurgency campaign against the Taleban.html>.victorybriefs.aljazeera. 2010. 08 Sept. Web. C anadian Broadcasting Corporation. (sa) CIVILIANS ARE ROUTINELY KILLED IN NATO BOMBINGS. 19 Sept. International troops are in Afghanistan to help provide security.cbc. 08 Sept. the unaccountable operation of Special Operations Forces outside the regular chain o f command acting without proper rules of engagement. But in recent months there has been increased anger over the issue of civilian c asualties. British Broadcasting Corporation. "Afghan Civilian Toll up by a Third .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 91 of 129 www. "British Diplomat Feels Afghan War Being Lost: Report." CBC. "Afghanistan Leak Exposes NATO's Incoherent Civilian Casualty Policy Amnesty I nternational. <http://english. the report said . David. The documents do not appear to address the January 2008 Kandahar night raid. 2010.ca. but do highlight a central problem identified by Amnesty International's investigation into that incident.amnesty. " Al Jazeera English. The Afghan government says it wants to renegotiate the terms of foreign forces i n their country after more than 90 civilians were killed in a US bombing. 08 Sept.bbc. 10 Aug. the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said on Tuesday in its midyear report.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7581270.org /en/news-andupdates/ afghanistan-leak-exposes-natos-incoherent-civilian-casualty-policy-2010-07-26>. 2008.Al Jazeera English." Amnesty International. <http://www.co. 12 per cent of the casualties were attributed to US. 26 July 2010.Central & South Asia . "Afghans Demand 'new Troops Deal'" Bbc. Web.200 Afghans were killed and almost 2. <http://news. More than 1. Meanwhile.net//news/asia/2010/08/201081075049886818. 2010. Common. paraphrases the 53-year-old British ambassador as saying: . Nato and other p ro-government forces. written in French. The number of civilians killed or wounded in Afghanistan has reportedly soared b y 31 per cent in the first six months of this year. The documents bear out Amnesty International's investigation into the Kunduz air strike. The cable. 2010. 25 Aug. 01 Oct. (sa) NATO FORCES ARE NOT TAKING PREPARATIONS TO AVOID CIVILIAN HARM. Web. namely.uk.html>. Web. (sa) NATO AND MILITARY FORCE PRESENCE IS ONLY SLOWING PROGRESS AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE INSTABILITY. an increase from 53 per cent last year.co. The Taliban and other anti-government elements were responsible for more than th ree quarters of all civilian casualties.

propping up the current regime and thus slowing progress toward Afghans putting a more effective governm ent in place.* The security situation is bad and getting worse. * Sending more military reinforcements to Afghanistan would have a "perverse eff ect" on the country's stability and future. (sa) . * The presence of foreign troops in the country is part of the problem. sending the message that an occupying force is i n control of the country and widening the number of targets for insurgents to attack. partly beca use of corruption. * The Afghan people have lost all trust in their current government.

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 92 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com NATO FORCES CAUSE UNACCEPTABLE AMOUNTS OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. Chandrasekaran, Rajiv. "Decision on Airstrike in Afghanistan Was Based Largely o n Sole Informant's Assessment - Washingtonpost.com." Washingtonpost.com. 06 Sept. 2009. Web. 08 Sept. 2010. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2009/09/05/AR2009090502832.html>. Based largely on that informant's assessment, the commander ordered a 500-pound, satelliteguided bomb to be dropped on each truck early Friday. The vehicles exploded in a fireba ll that lit up the night sky for miles, incinerating many of those standing nearby. A NATO fact-finding team estimated Saturday that about 125 people were killed in the bombing, at least two dozen of whom -- but perhaps many more -- were not insurgents. To t he team, which is trying to sort out this complicated incident, mindful that the fallout could further sap public support in Afghanistan for NATO's security mission here, the target appeared to be far less clearcut than it had to the Germans. (sa) NATO FORCES DO NOT FOLLOW THE DIRECTIVE TO REDUCE CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. Chandrasekaran, Rajiv. "Decision on Airstrike in Afghanistan Was Based Largely o n Sole Informant's Assessment - Washingtonpost.com." Washingtonpost.com. 06 Sept. 2009. Web. 08 Sept. 2010. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2009/09/05/AR2009090502832.html>. The decision to bomb the tankers based largely on a single human intelligence so urce appears to violate the spirit of a tactical directive aimed at reducing civilian casualties that was recently issued by U.S. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the new commander of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. The directive states that NATO forces cannot bomb residential build ings based on a sole source of information and that troops must establish a "pattern of life" to ensure that no civilians are in the target area. Although the directive does not apply to airst rikes in the open, NATO officials said it is McChrystal's intent for those standards to apply to al l uses of air power, except when troops are in imminent danger. (sa) NATO ROUTINELY KILLS CIVILIANS DESPITE NEW RULES OF ENGAGEMENT. Starkey, Jerome. "Nato .covered Up' Botched Night Raid in Afghanistan That Kille d Five - Times Online." The Sunday Times. 13 Mar. 2010. Web. 18 Sept. 2010. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7060395.ece>. A night raid carried out by US and Afghan gunmen led to the deaths of two pregna nt women, a teenage girl and two local officials in an atrocity which Nato then tried to cov er up, survivors have told The Times. The operation on Friday, February 12, was a botched pre-dawn assault on a police man's home a few miles outside Gardez, the capital of Paktia province, eastern Afghanistan. I n a statement after

the raid titled Joint force operating in Gardez makes gruesome discovery , Nato cla imed that the force had found the women's bodies tied up, gagged and killed in a room. A Times investigation suggests that Nato's claims are either wilfully false or, at best, misleading. More than a dozen survivors, officials, police chiefs and a religious leader int erviewed at and around the scene of the attack maintain that the perpetrators were US and Afghan gunmen. The identity and status of the soldiers is unknown. (sa)

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 93 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com NATO FORCES HAVE KILLED SCHOOLBOYS. Starkey, Jerome. "Nato Admits That Deaths of 8 Boys Were a Mistake - Times Onlin e." The Sunday Times. 25 Feb. 2010. Web. 19 Sept. 2010. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7040166.ece>. A night-time raid in eastern Afghanistan in which eight schoolboys from one fami ly were killed was carried out on the basis of faulty intelligence and should never have been autho rised, a Times investigation has found. Ten children and teenagers died when troops stormed a remote mountain compound n ear the border with Pakistan in December. At the time, Nato claimed that the assault force was targeting a known insurgent group responsible for a series of violent attacks . Officials said that the victims were involved in making and smuggling improvised explosive devices. But Western sources close to the cas e now agree that the victims were all aged 12 to 18 and were not involved in insurgent activ ity. (sa) NATO FORCES HAVE COMMITTED MASSACRES SIMILAR TO MY LAI IN VIETNAM. Lindorff, Dave. "Afghanistan's My Lai Massacre." Truthout. 05 Mar. 2010. Web. 19 Sept. 2010. <http://www.truth-out.org/where-are-this-wars-heroes-military-and-journalistic57 406>. Today's war in Afghanistan also has its My Lai massacres. It has them almost wee kly, as US warplanes bomb wedding parties or homes "suspected" of housing terrorists that t urn out to house nothing but civilians. But these My Lais are all conveniently labeled acci dents. They get filed away and forgotten as the inevitable "collateral damage" of war. There was , however, a massacre recently that was not a mistake - a massacre, which, while it only invo lved fewer than a dozen innocent people, bears the same stench as My Lai. It was the execution-sty le slaying of eight handcuffed students, aged 11-18, and a 12-year-old neighboring shepherd bo y who had been visiting the others in Kunar Province on December 26. (sa) NATO COMMITS WAR CRIMES IN AFGHANISTAN. Lindorff, Dave. "Afghanistan's My Lai Massacre." Truthout. 05 Mar. 2010. Web. 19 Sept. 2010. <http://www.truth-out.org/where-are-this-wars-heroes-military-and-journalistic57 406>. Under the Geneva Conventions, it is a war crime to execute a captive. Yet, in Ku nar on December 26, US-led forces, or perhaps US soldiers or contract mercenaries, cold-bloodedl y executed eight hand-cuffed prisoners. It is a war crime to kill children under the age of 15, y et in this incident a boy of 11 and a boy of 12 were handcuffed as captured combatants and executed. T wo others of the dead were 12 and a third was 15. (sa)

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 94 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com MILITARY NOT THE SOLUTION THE BRITISH SUPREME COMMANDER SAID THE TALIBAN WILL NEVER BE DEFEATED. Koelbl, Susanne. "NATO Pessimism: The West Is at a Loss in Afghanistan ONLINE. 1 7 Oct. 2008. Web. 08 Sept. 2010. <http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,5846 16,00.html>. As such, it seemed almost treasonous when the outgoing supreme commander of the British contingent, General Mark Carleton-Smith, recently said unequivocally that the Ta liban will never be defeated. A military victory over the Taliban was "neither feasible nor suppo rtable," he told the Sunday Times. Carleton-Smith has lost 32 of his men in six months. (sa) RECONCILIATION IS NEEDED NOT NATO FORCES. Koelbl, Susanne. "NATO Pessimism: The West Is at a Loss in Afghanistan" SPIEGEL ONLINE. 17 Oct. 2008. Web. 08 Sept. 2010. <http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,584616,00.html>. The British, on the other hand, fear that additional US soldiers could be more l ikely to heat up the conflict. "We don't need more GIs, but more reconciliation, more reconstruction and more offers for those who want to get out of the conflict," says an English advisor who has been working in Afghanistan for almost two decades. The West, he says, seems to be repeating the same mistakes the Soviets made. Despite an Afghan army of 100,000 men and 120,000 of their own soldiers, Moscow's military campaign in Afghanistan was ultimately a failure -not least because support for the war back home dried up. (sa) THE CONFLICT CANNOT BE WON MILITARILY. "BBC News - US Chief Petraeus Vows to Protect Afghan Civilians." BBC. 1 July 201 0. Web. 18 Sept. 2010. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10472555>. The top United Nations envoy in Afghanistan, Steffan de Mistura, said the Taliba n statement was "in the opposite direction" to many other recent signals, and could be part of a pre-negotiation strategy of creating perceptions, building up pressure and increasing military a ttacks. "I think they know very well that this conflict will not be won militarily - not by them and not by anyone else, and that the only solution is a political one. So they are pre-posi tioning themselves and one can understand that this is a typical strategy," he told the BBC. (sa)

00.708850. The country remains a potential breeding ground for terrorism as it was prior to the Sept. Schwennicke. "A Plea for Common Sense: Why NATO Should Withdraw from Afghanistan.spiegel.US Chief Petraeus Vows to Protect Afghan Civilians. The British came first. wells and newly paved roads are pleasant side effects of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. NATO and other Western allies have been trying to pacify Afghanis tan for almost 10 years -.with little success. 08 Sept. London to Kabul. however. 1 July 201 0.1518.1518. 11.000 soldier s stationed in the country. 28 July 2010.co. As a justifi cation. None of them. Shortly before the briefing.com NATO FORCES ARE INEFFECTIVE TEN YEARS ON. and the foreign troops are consid ering withdrawal. AFGHANISTAN IS STILL A BREEDING GROUND FOR TERRORISTS." Zabiullah Mujahedd said in a statement to the BBC's John Simpson. 2010. "BBC News . 2010. In total. NATO PRESENCE IS WORTHLESS. they are not enough. and there are differences in the ranks of our enemies?" (sa) . 2001 attacks in the US. War aims have changed frequently. "We are certain that we are winning. The West has bitten off more than it can chew. a graveyard of empires. "Why should we talk if we have the upper hand. and it won't be enough now. through an intermediary. Web. the US. Schwennicke.html>. <http://www. And little that the West has imported to Afghanistan since th en has put down such deep roots that it would survive a pullout for long. 18 Sept. The intervals between the large-scale Afghanistan conferences." SPIEGEL ONLINE. has been achieved.spiegel.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 95 of 129 www. now NATO and the UN are losing their innocence on the battlefields of A fghanistan. Afghanistan is a nightmare. DESPITE NATO PRESENCE. 08 Sept. fr om Berlin to Paris.bbc.victorybriefs. however.uk/news/10472555>. Led by the US. foll owed by the Soviets." BBC.00. 28 July 2010. Girls' schools. <http://www. I t wasn't enough then. (sa) THE TALIBAN WON'T NEGOTIATE. its allies and private security firms have almost 200. roughly equal to the number the Soviets stationed there in the 1980s. And increasing that number would be militarily difficult and politically impossible. Web.708850. <http://www. Cristoph.de/international/world/0. Cristoph. "A Plea for Common Sense: Why NATO Should Withdraw from Afghanistan. (sa) NATO PRESENCE LIKE SOVIET PRESENCE IN THE 80s HAS DONE NOTHING TO IMPROVE AFGHANISTAN. 2010. Gen Petraeus's new challenge was brought into focus when a key spokesman for the Afghan Taliban leadership said there was no question of enteri ng into any kind of negotiations with Nato forces.html>. have become ever shorter. but the list of problems has o nly grown. Web." SPIEGEL ONLINE.de/international/world/0.

(sa) . For although Karzai is a Pashtun.NATO PRESENCE CANNOT STOP WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A CIVIL WAR. Uzbek and Hazaradominated regime. But this has long ceased to be the main iss ue. which has only a fig leaf of Pashtun window-dressing in the person of Ka rzai. as a battle between the US and Nato against al-Qaida and the Taliban an impressi on William Hague's speech yesterday underlined. under his watch Nato installed the Northern Al liance in Kabul and drove out of power Afghanistan's Pashtun majority. the war is viewed primarily as a Pashtun rebellion against a Tajik. Internally. The problem remains that we continue to view the situation in Afghanistan throug h western eyes. and British troops are now caught up in a complex local and regional conflict that has compl etely changed the nature of the war.

"Where . 19 Sept. then June. then July. 2010. 1 July 2010.org/view/2010/08/01>. either. Instead of being an operation to kill one of the planet's most concentrated popu lations of jihadist terrorists. 19 Sept.commondreams." Macleans. even in Kabul. The area remains ungovernable. <http://www2. Mark. That averages out at 23.nice' Obama Has Got Us. 1 Aug. The NATO offensive in Marjah also failed to root the Taliban out of that key dis trict in opiumproducing Helmand province. the three Black Hawks all came from one c ountry Turkey and within a year they'd all gone back. a bleeding ulcer. but the effort expended on that transnational fig leaf certainly con tributed to America's disastrous reframing of its interests in Afghanistan.08 troops per country. designed to bring the entire Taliban-domi nated south under NATO/Afghan control. as the fasting month of Ramadan starts mid-August. 2010.victorybriefs. <http://www. Siddiqui. They are using more roadside bombs and hitting more NATO convoys and bases. The much-touted offensive in Kandahar. The 2004 NATO summit wa s hailed as a landmark success after the alliance's 26 members agreed to put up an extra 600 t roops and three helicopters for Afghanistan.ca. (sa) . Those 600 troops and three helicopters m ade no practical difference. As it transpired.macleans.000 additional troops has not stopped the Taliban f rom controlling more territory. Web. Steyn. plus almost a ninth of a helicopter apiece. Stanley McChrystal called it. Web.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 96 of 129 www. it decayed into half-hearted nation-building in which a handful of r eal allies took the casualties while the rest showed up for the group photo." Common Dreams. Obama's military surge of 30.ca/2010/07/01/where-nice-obama-has-got-us/>. as the dear departed Gen. They are organizing more suicide bombing missions and assassinati ons. 2010. It won't be gin this month. Haroon. "Afghanistan: Its Even Worse Than You Thought. was set for spring. (sa) NATO TROOPS HAVE NOT STOPPED TALIBAN ATTACKS.com NATO PRESENCE IS WORTHLESS AND ONLY FOR EUROPE TO SUCK UP TO AMERICA.

Nick. 19 Sept. in some cases. 2010. one of the few independent journalists actively trying to find out what is actually happening in Afghanistan has written some very useful and insightful work on thi s." Soci alistWorker. <http://socialistworker.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 97 of 129 www. and as he points out.Channel 4 News.org. 18 Aug. Web.victorybriefs.the City's Real Power? . 16 May 2010.org/2009/08/18/should-the -left-call-fortalibanvictory>. including the indiscriminate air attacks which have killed thousands of Afghans.org.com/news/articles/world/asia_pacific/th e gangs of kandahar the cityaposs real power/3650287>. 2010. "The Gangs of Kandahar . including intelligence agencies. 2009.channel4.com NATO RADICALIZES NATO SUPPORTS WARLORD MILITIAS TERRORIZING KANDAHAR. <http://www. The Taliban are increasingly espousing a strong nationalist message and. Most disturbing was the frequent suggestion that the reason for the power exerte d by these groups was their close relationship with both the US military and other parts of the coalition. in the guise of interpreters and other staff at coalition bases. Web." Channel 4. 19 Sept. and as special units attached to coalition special forces and intelligence teams. in reality many of the gunmen who "belong" to the powerful warlord clans of the city have been enlisted for help by Nato. insisti ng they work only with groups that are approved and licensed by the Afghan government. K. (sa) NATO PRESENCE ONLY FURTHER RADICALIZES THE POPULATION. Anand Gopal. have substantially moderated their social conservatism in order to build a more broad -based and effective resistance movement. the ranks of the Taliban have been swelled in recent years by rural peasants who have been radicalized as a result of US/NATO brutality. Although the US and coalition officially condemn any form of "militias". Armed militias may be found as guards at coalition gates or as guards that prote ct Nato supply convoys. (sa) . "Should the Left Call for Taliban Victory? SocialistWorker.

" The American Prospect. Ann. "Listening to Afghanistan The American Prospect.org/cs/articles?article=listening_to_afghanistan>. one's view of whether a continued U.org/cs/articles?article=listening_to_afghanistan>. Ann. Zoya. says "most foreign troops are not primarily focused on protecting women and chil dren." (sa) EIGHT YEARS ON AND WOMEN'S RIGHTS HAVE NOT IMPROVED ANY BIT FROM MILITARY INTERVENTION. 2010. Eight years later. And Sakena Yacoobi.prospect. 22 Dec." She is a member of the Revolutionary Association of the Women of A fghanistan. who founded a network of underground schools for Afghan women an d girls. and Yacoobi is not their level of commitment to women's rights.especially outside of Kabul. Presid ent Hamid Karzai signed a law this summer that legalized marital rape and required women to get p ermission from their husbands to work. Web. has appeared in various U.org/cs/articles?article=listening_to_afghanistan>. "Listening to Afghanistan The American Prospect. <http://www. Ann. 08 Sept." Another woman. (sa) NATO FORCES ARE NOT HUMANITARIAN FORCES. As Prospect senior correspondent Michelle Goldberg put it recently. Their focus is on beating the enemy. presence in Afghanistan will improve the situation for women "depends on whether one believes . 08 Sept. Friedman. and ordinary citizens become c ollateral damage in the process. 08 Sept. The Afghan politician and activist Malalai Joya has warned that "Obama's militar y buildup will only bring more suffering and death to innocent civilians. 2009. 2009. who goes b y the pseudonym Zoya. Web.com HUMANITARIAN SITUATION WORSE AFGHAN CITIZENS AGREE NATO FORCES ARE NOT IMPROVING THE LIVES OF CIVILIANS. 2010. <http://www. In November UNICEF declared Afghanistan the worst countr y in the world in which to be born. a Kabul-based political group that has fought for human rights and social justice since 1977. which is very different. 2009.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 98 of 129 www. Friedman.victorybriefs. 22 Dec.S. 22 Dec. "Listening to Afghanistan The American Prospect. the consensus is that the current regime has not been markedl y better for women than the former Taliban rulers were -. Web.S. It's their faith in military intervention as a means of securing them. <http://www. 2010. Friedman.prospect. AND HAVE NOT IMPROVED THE LIVES OF CITIZENS. The difference between the pro-intervention feminists like Viswanath and Smeal a nd the prowithdrawal Afghan women like Joya." The American Prospect. media calling for "withdrawal of th e troops immediately.prospect." The American Prospect. Women and girls still face daily oppression and epidemic le vels of violence.

it never has been and wo n't become one. in Afghanistan. militar y intervention can be a force for humanitarianism because." To me.S. the answer is tragically apparent: It doesn't matter whether U.that the American military can be a force for humanitarianism. (sa) .

Web. 15 June 2008. military is set to expa nd its footprint of 100. military officials. Cockburn argued that our governments should not put another Weste rn soldier into Afghanistan while there is such obvious corruption snaking through the Afghan se curity services.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2008/06/14/AR2008061401639. Attacks peaked during the months of the warm weather fighting season.victorybriefs. "The Rape of the Afghan Boys. 2010. with more than 400 in the peak month of 2005. Indeed.html?nav=rss_nation/special>. sexual abuse. and about 1. Tyson. Kelley B. 19 Sept. <http://www.000 by the end of the summer.com.615 last year. Too late.Washingtonpost. comprehensive data released by the NATO-led command show a steady escala tion in violence since NATO took charge of the Afghanistan mission in 2006. and the like will be left to percolate on the milblogs and in the tales soldiers bring home.000 soldi ers. Web. <http://original.931 in 20 06 to 2. while the Afghan army grew from 20. 13 Apr. If winning the war against the "evildoers" means ignoring evil among our allies.S.S. Overall violence has increased and attacks have grown more complex. Vlahos. 201 0.000 in 2007." Washingtonpost. Forget the State Department reports and the undercover inve stigative journalism.antiwar. (sa) . then we have truly lost our soul.000 to 58. more than 800 in 2006. spurred in p art by more aggressive operations by the alliance and most recently by U. man-love Thursdays. Complaints within the ranks about Afghan milit ary's worthiness in the field will continue to simmer.com VIOLENCE HAS INCREASED AS NATO PRESENCE INCREASED. Ann S. not to mention the Karzai government. (sa) NATO PRESENCE HAS NOT STOPPED CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE. The U. according to the data and U. The Washington Post Company. the face of America in Afghanistan) starts publicly condemning bacha bazi and the abuse of Afghan children with all the for ce and authority it can muster.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 99 of 129 www.000 in early 2007 to 52. The number of roadside bombs increased from 1. 2010. then we might as well be putting our red scrawl on a pact with th e devil. 08 Sept. while most of this stuff about debauchery. "A Sober Assessment of Afghanistan ." Antiwar. ISAF troops in Afghanistan increased fro m 36. Marine battalion s in the heavily contested southern province of Helmand.000 now.S. like it or not.washingtonpost.com/vlahos/2010/04/12/a-deal-with-the-devil/>.com.com. until the military (which is.

WASHINGTON NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan will be gradual and not a brusque "lights out" next August. No matter how much western liberals may d islike the Taliban. secularism against Is lam. the town against the country. Dalrymple. they are in many ways the authentic voice of rural Pashtun conservatism . 2010. You have to kill. said Wednesday. And that means reintegration and reconciliation. US General David Petraeus.co.guardian. September 15. Petraeus said the operations would be a long-term process and "Afghan-l ed. and whose top-down constitution allo wed for little federalism or regional representation. 2010. and NATO fo rces would soon begin "more nuanced" operations to take control of areas around Kanda har. We installed a government and trained up an army that in m any ways discriminated against the Pashtun majority.victorybriefs. NATO troops to begin 'nuanced' operations in Kandahar: Petraeus. he said recognizing that fact was not damaging to the war effort. But. As I said in Iraq when I was the commander there: you don' t end an industrialstrength insurgency by killing or capturing all the bad guys. " despite the presence of international forces in the region for many years. 19 Sept. Petraeus told NPR radio "the idea of some date out the . Speaking on National Public Radio (NPR) early Wednesday. the commander of international forces there. and the Tajiks against the Pashtuns.or turn -the bad guys." In a candid interview. 1 July 2010. "This is the reality. NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will be gradual: Petraeus. 2 010.com ELECTIONS NATO PRESENCE IS SILENCING THE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY OF AFGHANISTAN. Asked about an exit date.PART OF THE PROCESS AFP.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/01/afghanistan-pakistan-proxywar-withindia>. September 15. General David Petraeus said forces would undertake the major operations to win back areas that were "never cleared. (sa) NATO CANNOT WIN THE WAR BUT WILL HELP WITH HELP WIN BACK CERTAIN AREAS New York Post. <http://www.com/p/news/international/nato_troops_commander_begin_nuanced_T swB3L5 DUHHG86tHSJVaPI The commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan said Wednesday that U. However.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 100 of 129 www." The Guardian. In this way we unwittingly took sides in the Afghan civil war that began in the 1970s siding with the north against the south. Petraeus said he agreed with a statement from Afghan Pres ident Hamid Karzai that NATO troops could not win the war in Afghanistan. whose wishes are ignored by the government in Kabul and who are largely excluded from power. capture . "This Is No Nato Game but Pakistan's Proxy War with Its Brot her in the South. http://www.S. William.nypost. (dm) WITHDRAWAL WILL BE GRADUAL ." he said. Web.

Petraeus said: "It's a process that has been ongoing for years. he ad ded." (dm) . But the idea of an August date for a pullout is not a "lights out" moment.re is not unprecedented. For those who had another impression." On the Taliban's inroads in Afghanistan's north. Petraeus stressed: "we just have to keep o n explaining." mentioning past practice in Iraq.

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 101 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com NATO DID NOT HAVE THE MEANS TO EFFECTIVELY COMBAT TERRORISTS AFP. NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will be gradual: Petraeus. September 15, 2 010. Yet when asked if NATO had dropped the ball on that account, Petraus said that i n the past they did not have means to carry out the kind of "comprehensive counterinsurgency" th at was needed. Now, we can "broadly say that we have the inputs right," he said. "It's not a conventional battle. It is slow progress. You take steps forward but you also take steps backward," Petraeus told NPR. (dm) THE SEPTEMBER ELECTIONS ARE A LITMUS TEST FOR STABILITY Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee; South Asia Senior Analyst, Afghanistan, Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer]. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons. Council on Foreign Relations. August 31, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections.html Afghanistan's parliamentary elections, set for September 18, will be seen as a t est of that country's stability nine years after the U.S.-led invasion, and three months bef ore U.S. President Barack Obama reviews progress in the war effort. But if balloting is meant to se rve as a litmus test for a military campaign that continues to sputter along, Afghanistan analys t Candace Rondeaux says the West should prepare for disappointment. For one, a surge in pr e-election violence, coupled with a growing list of corrupt candidates, will discourage man y Afghans from voting, Rondeaux says. Changes to the Afghan-run commission that investigates el ectoral fraud will also make a free and fair tally unlikely, she says. And while parliament ha s in recent months exhibited a willingness to challenge President Hamid Karzai on numerous issues, the corrupt lineup of candidates running this time makes it unlikely such independence will continue, she says. (dm) THERE IS A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE SURROUNDING PAST ELECTIONS Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee; South Asia Senior Analyst, Afghanistan, Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer]. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons. Council on Foreign Relations. August 31, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections.html As we get closer to election day, we're going to see very much a repeat of last year, where candidates, campaign managers, [and] members are at risk. We've had three candid ates [killed] so far and that's just the start. It's safe to say that the competition is very high with so many candidates [over 2,550] in the field for such a small number of seats [249 seats are being competed for in the Afghan parliament]. It's a very complex chess game. On the o ne hand, security is not very good because there's an insurgency. But also, this sort of

internecine competition between what are essentially members of a sort of political mafia ha ve encouraged [candidates] to be a little bit more bold in their bullying and their intimidati ons against rivals. So this is really a very volatile situation. At the end of the day, it's difficult to say what the impact will be. It's very clear that we will not have a sitting parliament for many, many mo nths to come even after the elections, in part because there'd be a lot of challenges. And it's no t entirely clear whether the ECC, the Electoral Complaints Commission, is fully equipped or prepa red to deal with some hundreds of challenges in such a complex political field. (dm)

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 102 of 129 www.victorybriefs.com VOTING IRREGULARITY CANNOT BE AVOIDED Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee; South Asia Senior Analyst, Afghanistan, Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer]. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons. Council on Foreign Relations. August 31, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections.html There are very few opportunities now to reverse course. Unfortunately, the train was out of the station the minute there was a decision to go forward with these elections. Ther e's a lot of work that needed to be done before holding these elections. In a more calm environmen t, maybe a less politically pressurized environment, both in Kabul and Washington and Brussels, if everybody had taken a step back, they'd have seen the cliff that we're about to now go over. B ut this is a very difficult political picture for everybody involved. Most importantly, Afghans th emselves are really struggling to understand what is going to happen next. It's not clear what the o utcome's going to be. (dm) ELECTIONS WILL NOT HAVE AN IMMEDIATE EFFECT - CONTESTATION WILL LAST MONTHS Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee; South Asia Senior Analyst, Afghanistan, Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer]. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons. Council on Foreign Relations. August 31, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections.html I think it's very clear that we will not have a sitting parliament for many, man y months to come even after the elections. The controversy was essentially that in the prior election [the presidential ele ction in August 2009], there had to be sort of a supermajority, if you will, and the internation als [non-Afghan commissioners] sort of provided by divisional composition--there were three inte rnationals [on the five-member board]--a possibility of a dissenting vote along the majority line. There was always that possibility. Now, there's only two [non-Afghan commissioners], so the impac t of whatever challenges they might raise to belay a specific complaint that they handled or t he way that the process is going to be rolled out in terms of evaluating fraud, they just won't have the same impact at all. (dm) THE ELECTION WILL NOT BE DEMOCRATIC - FEAR PREVENTS TURNOUT Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee; South Asia Senior Analyst, Afghanistan, Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer]. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons. Council on Foreign Relations. August 31, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections.html I can't see any other alternative for voters today. It's a risky proposition to go and vote for

somebody who could end up stealing their paycheck. At the end of the day, what's the motivation for anybody right now? Most voters really do feel like they deserve a choice, so some will show up, [but] the intent is just not there. The security isn't going to be there at the polls. In some places, the polls might not even exist. If we have another repeat of last year, where you have polling sites being closed because of security situations so bad and then you ha ve voters left out there who are on their way to the polling station, this is a very precarious sit uation. One has to wonder: What does the voter get out of this? (dm)

S. and I don't think it would be a decision that either the UN or NATO or the United States has shown any signs of supporting postponement. drug wa rlords. They're no t good because the candidates that are running. Council on Foreign Relations. but they have a few things going for them. If that's the case. http://www. South Asia Senior Analyst. This lack of scrutiny coul d potentially create some insulation in some ways. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons. We have an [Afghan] president who is reluctant to enforce the law. The choices are not good for Afgh an voters when they go to the polls on September 18. But at the end of the day. excommandos. And we won't have a sitting parli ament for months. Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer]. Interview: The Folly of Holding Afghan Electi ons.cfr. s imply because it's not going to be safe enough for them to be effective.victorybriefs.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections. some carry U. Canadian passports. Some are not even Afghan citizens. http://www. what's the expectation? We still don't have a full cabinet.com NATO IS ABANDONING THE ELECTION . They're not good because they're taki ng a major risk by going out there and exposing themselves in the security situation. is this what we are all working for? Is this stabilization? (dm) REGARDLESS OF THE RESULT. Afghanistan. And it's not really clear that the press. I mean. August 31. [if parliament is not seated soon after the elections ]. 2010. CORRUPTION IS LIKELY Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee. we're going to have a situation where we've got maybe several hundred candidates in contention come December. many of them are really quite corrupt to the co re. Afghanistan.cfr. Council on Foreign Relations. South Asia Senior Analyst. they recognize the risk i nvolved with this whole exercise. They're an amalgam of construction barons.html This is a choice that has to be made with the utmost care and careful considerat ion. They're extremely nervous. And the other reason that the choices aren't good is because there's no guarantee that if they do throw their .html Let's look at the candidates. Internati onal Crisis Group] & Greg Bruno [Interviewer].MAY DOOM AFGHANISTAN TO PROLONGED INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE Candace Rondeaux [Interviewee. August 31. has fully done its job in raising some of the dangero us issues that are going to come up as we get closer to the polling day. People are extremely distracted by this corruption issue.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 103 of 129 www. There will not be as many international observers this time. 2010. international or national.org/publication/22860/folly_of_holding_afghan_elections. logisticians for international organizations. passports. when it comes time [for President Obama] to do another strategic assessment of t he way forward.

That. The more we force politics the way that they have been forced. the more we ram t hrough strategic goals and benchmarks without ever checking to see whether there are re sults. the more difficult it's going to become to make this a stable member of the international community. it'll actually be counted correctly. which can also then exacerbate the divide between the north and the south. would be disastrous on a n umber of levels. So Afghans in September are look ing at kind of a nowin situation. We're going to see a lot o f very tough conversations about the constitution. (dm) . We'll see some very tough conversations ab out Karzai's term when we get closer to the end of it because there is a lot of fear among Af ghan politicians that he may seek to extend his term. and the elections go off but are riddled w ith fraud and low turnout. We'll see that come full circle once parliament is actually sitting. what happens on the nineteenth of September? The question is. If all of your predictions hold true. but I can say that the trends that are emerging now point toward deeper conflicts between the main ethnicities here. "What happens on the nineteenth of September 2011?" It will tak e a while before we really understand the impact of more instability generated by flawed election s.vote down. of course.

recently documented 583 instances of pre-voting electoral violations in a scant 40 days. "We don't want to lose things to gain things -. http://www.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 104 of 129 www. Women leaders won a hard-fought battle to be heard at July's Kabul Conference. a f igure that is up twenty percent from five years ago.victorybriefs.to lose t he rights of women. Track Afghan Election Fraud Without Going To Afghanistan. The Free and Fair Election Foundation. And if you'd like to do a little DIY election analysis. far from the reach of th e Taliban. September 15. (dm) . 2010. N ow their goal is to keep the pressure on their own government and the international community.org/publication/22949/while_the_world_scales_back_its_afghanistan _ambitions_af ghan_women_push_forward. which has promised that peace with the Taliban will not come at the price of their rights. a women's rights activist a nd founder of Voice of Afghan Women.com/dangerroom/2010/09/track-afghan-election-fraud-withou t-going-toafghanistan/# ixzz0zoGhoS5U It doesn't take a crystal ball to anticipate that Saturday's parliamentary elect ion in Afghanistan will be marred by fraud. "We are not going to be silent.html On Wednesday a group of women will gather at the Women's Garden in Kabul to "pro mote women's participation in the upcoming election. an independent Afghan poll-watching group." Despite security risks and thre ats to their campaigns. more than 400 women are running in Saturday's parliamentary vote. a different non-governmental organization has built an online tool just for you.cfr. the right to education.com THE ELECTION IS IMPORTANT FOR THE PRO-WOMAN MOVEMENT Gayle Tzemach Lemmon [Fellow and Deputy Director of the Women and Foreign Policy Program]. 2010. Afghan Women Pu sh Forward." (dm) VOTER FRAUD WAS WIDESPREAD BEFORE THE ELECTION BEGAN Spencer Ackerman." said Suraya Pakzad. While the World Scales Back its Afghanistan Ambitions. the rights of media. Sept ember 17. http://www.wired.

NATO and Afghan officials said. Col. inclu ding elections." The insurgents want to oust the pro-West Afghan government and drive foreign tro ops out of the country. rocket and machine gun fire. The military alliance said that up to 23 militants were killed in action in sout hern Helmand province Monday and three in eastern Wardak province Tuesday.000 NATO-led foreign troops in the country. September 15. "The removal of these criminals effectively removed a potential threat to the pe ople of Afghanistan. September 15.victorybriefs. There were no reports of casualties among joint NATO-Afghan forces. The allied forces stopped firing when women and children moved into the compound from where . The forces responded with airstri kes. 2010. which the Taliban want to undermine. Regional Command-East chief of operations. "We will continue to work with our Afghan partners to provide a secur e environment for the upcoming elections. just west of capital Kabul. and have sought to sabotage all aspects of the political process. http://www.com NATO IS KILLING INSURGENTS TO SECURE THE ELECTION Dusan Stojanovic [AP Staff writer]. Attacks and clashes are rising amid an allied offensive aimed at suppressing the continuing Taliban insurgency. The Taliban has vowed to target polling stations and warned Afghans not to participate in what i t calls a sham vote. The government and its Western allies hope the ballot for the lower house of par liament will help consolidate the country's shaky democracy. 2010.google. Dan Morgan. mortars. Meanwhile." Lt.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvWEqwq3CrRvaQCmt21MfoYhjZJQD9 I8 1ES80 NATO said the coalition forces were attacked on three separate occasions during a patrol in the Sangin district of Helmand province on Monday. killing up to 23 insurgents. NATO said the coalition forces killed three "known manufacturers" of improvised explosive devices in Wardak. Associated Press.google. 30 insurgents killed in Afghanistan ahead of vote. eventually leading to the withdrawal of the roughly 140. 30 insurgents killed in Afghanistan ahead of vote.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvWEqwq3CrRvaQCmt21MfoYhjZJQD9 I8 1ES80 Up to 30 insurgents have been killed in fighting in Afghanistan ahead of this we ek's parliamentary elections. http://www. Associated Press. tensions were rising ahead of Saturday's parliamentary elections. An Afghan official said four Taliban were killed Tuesday in southeastern Zabul province. sa id in a statement.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 105 of 129 www. (dm) NATO DOES WHAT IT CAN TO MINIMIZE CIVILIAN CASUALTIES Dusan Stojanovic [AP Staff writer].

. NATO said. even though the United Nations says the insurgents are responsible for most civilian deaths and injuries.the insurgent fire had originated. Civilian deaths in NATO military operations are a major source of contention bet ween the alliance and Afghanistan's government.

the contesters. In the previous elections." the candidate mai ntained but declined to be identified. The hard-liner militants who boycotted last year's presidential elections have k illed at least three candidates for parliamentary elections and five campaigners of a lady contester over the past two months. provide food and then offered his or her man ifests and programs asking the voters to facilitate him or her win the elections. The Canadian Press. Septe mber 14. and vowed to derail the electoral process.500 candidates with over 400 of them women are in the run to secure a seat in the 249-seat Wolesi Jirga or Lower House of Afghan parliament. the Taliban insurgents a ttacked and injured three electoral campaigners of a parliamentary candidate in the northern Balkh p rovince on Monday. Xinhua News.htm While Afghans are just four days away from the parliamentary elections. Taliban militants fighting Afghan and NATO-led troops based in Afghanistan. besides holding public meetings as pa rt of election campaigns invited people to hotels. (dm) SECURITY IS WORSE .com SECURITY CONCERNS HAVE PREVENTED CAMPAIGNING Abdul Haleem.com/english2010/world/2010-09/14/c_13494925. Fear mounts as Afghans return to the polls. "It is easy to invite 1000 people on a ground but it is difficult to check every one. This year. In the latest attack to sabotage the electoral process. Afghanistan's second parliamentary elections since the collapse of Taliban regim e in late 2001 is set for Sept. Sept . 18 amid tight security. more than 2. The electioneering should have reached its peak as the day for voting is drawing closer.xinhuanet. The streets in Kabul and other big cities are adorned with portraits of candidat es inscribed with slogans promising better serving the people. election eering activities seem lesser than the previous one as few candidates have dared to hold public me etings and encourage supporters to use their franchise. the security concerns have shrunk the electioneering in the militancy-p lagued Afghanistan as many contesters prefer to announce their manifests and programs t hrough televised advertisements and installing billboards and portraits along the stree ts. have termed the elections as a ploy of U. http://news. However.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 106 of 129 www. observers are of the view that Taliban-linked security threats have negatively a ffected the electoral campaign elsewhere in the country. A candidate in talks with this scribe admitted that fear of suicide attacks used by Taliban insurgents has barred him from holding public meetings in Kabul.S. Security concerns shrink Afghan electioneering. 2010. Carrying out suicide an attack in public meetings would prove catastrophe. However.ANY ELECTION IMPROVEMENTS WOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT Dene Moore.victorybriefs.

-Gen. which will pres ide over the balloting without international oversight for only the second time since its inc eption." Abdul Wasi Alkozai . who heads up Regional Command South for the International Security Assistance Force. (dm) . 2010.ember 16. Kandahar regional director of the Afghan Independent Election Commission. Taliban threats were posted on mosque walls throughout the district last year an d insurgents undertook a campaign of assassinations. Afghans will be voting Saturday for the Wolesi Jirga. The sound of bombs intermittently echoed through the city the night before the vote. the form al name of NATO's military coalition in Afghanistan. "This time the security situation is much worse than before." said Maj. Carter said he couldn't predict what would happen Saturday. their lower house of parli ament. in the midst of the worst security situation since the Taliban was overthrown almost a decade ago. but suggested that a day that's "slightly less violent than the one we had last year" is about the best anyone c an hope for. it will be a very violent day. Nick Carter. "If it is like it was last year.

and thousands of Afgh an and US-led NATO troops have been forced to beef up security at polling stations [3] around the country. Afghan authorities have made it easier on the troops and harder on voters by closing over 1.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 107 of 129 www. At his monthly briefing.5 million Afghans living in these areas: Residents and candidates in these places. Almost all of the 249 incumbents are running for reelection. were due for a vacati on. he says. and most are expect ed to win." said de Mistura.com LOW VOTER TURNOUT EXPECTED. DISENFRANCHISEMENT EXPECTED. The International R . 2010." UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura agreed [6].com/mojo/2010/09/afghans-brace-themselves -saturdayelections This all comes just as the UN decided to force a third of its Afghanistan staffe rs (the "nonessential" ones) to take an early vacation [7].victorybriefs. September 17. NATO and U N authorities are doing whatever they think will result in a smoother election." Peeling back just as the situation worsens see ms to be a popular trend this election season. Afghans Brace Themselves for Saturday's Elections. Disenfranchisement could be a bad thing in the long run. mostly in the south and east of the country.000 polling stations [4]. Siddhartha Mahanta. http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/09/afghans-brace-themselves -saturdayelections There's little reason to be optimistic about Afghanistan's parliamentary electio ns on Saturday. Unsurprisingly. mostly remote villages in dangerous so uthern and eastern provinces. said they worry that the move will deepen ethnic rivalries by creating electoral imbalances and accelerate a growing disengagement from the Afghan central govern ment that has fed the Taliban's resurgence. The hop e is that fewer polling stations will reduce the odds of fraud in the country's more unstable re gions. "It would be naive not to take these precau tions as we are a target. Experts project [1] a turnout of under five million voters. Afghans Brace Themselves for Saturday's Elections. saying that they would be "far from" perfect" but "much better than the previous ones." (dm) THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS ABANDONING THE ELECTION Siddhartha Mahanta. It may have the opposite effect on 1. Many staffers. 2010. http://motherjones. or about 30% of the registered electorate. Others "were told to take their holidays now. Mother Jo nes. as a number of election watchdog groups are opting f or "assessments" [7] over full-on "observation" missions: Nearly all groups are cutting the number of foreign electoral experts and housin g those that do come in Kabul or other relatively safe areas of the country. Mother Jo nes. the Taliban have called for a boycott [2]. September 17. But for now. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said [5] he expects the elections to be "more transparent and more reliable.

a US democracy group with a long-term presence in the country.epublican Institute. In the last week Singapore-based Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) has already repatriated more than half of its observers because of difficulties finding a security compa ny prepared to provide armed guard to election monitors who need to be able to roam around poll ing stations. is everyone throwing in th e towel? (dm) . has cut its forei gn observers by around half to just five while increasing the number of Afghan observers from 40 to 160. Even the EU who sent 120 observors last year is only sending only seven this time ar ound. So in the face of guaranteed bloodshed and likely fraud.

Mother Jo nes. A final result is not expected until next month. and still-unfolding Kabul Bank crisis [11]. Ballots are now being counted amid allegations of vote rigging and intimidation. (dm) NATO ADMITS VIOLENCE DURING ELECTIONS Sally Sara. says the elections should go forward [9] as planned." Abdullah's hopes for the electorate's integrity may sound naive. no real effort has been made to identify and destroy fraudulent voter ID cards.com/mojo/2010/09/afghans-brace-themselves -saturdayelections The words of opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah offer little comfort.au/news/stories/2010/09/19/3015918. m erely managing a broken electoral system and praying for a low body count may be the best anyone can hope for. NATO officials say there were 485 violent incidents during the voting in yesterd ay's parliamentary election.abc. So far. After the countless shenanigans of the Karzais. Afghans Brace Themselves for Saturday's Elections.FAKE ID CARDS ARE READILY AVAILABLE Siddhartha Mahanta. September 17. But what else c an he possibly hope for? For Afghans holding out the hope for change from the bottom up.htm NATO officials say there were 485 violent incidents during the voting in yesterd ay's parliamentary election. http://motherjones. http://www. the bodies of three election workers abducted as the country voted ha ve been found in north Afghanistan. The UN and other international organizations' decisions to remove personnel from dangerous areas makes sense. Electoral officials concede some voters were unable to take part in the poll bec ause of security problems in some districts. ABC News. NATO records show 22 people were killed. But it also smacks of resignation. Abd ullah. the Salehi arrest-and-not-arrest [10]. the only thing that we can do is call on our pe ople to participate in the elections and be observers and monitors [themselves by not buying] fake card s from sources. but there were fewer deaths. 22 killed during Afghan polls: NATO. (AFP: Manan Vatsyayana) NATO says 22 people were killed during violence in Afghanistan's parliamentary e lection.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 108 of 129 www. who finished second to Karzai [8] in last year's presidential race. "I think at this stage. 2010. with sales agents estimating that they've sold over a million during the past three m onths. compared to 50 during last year's vote.net.victorybriefs. September 19. slightly more than last year's presidential poll. The system they've got (with Karzai at the top) is the system they have. Meanwhile.com VOTER FRAUD IS INEVITABLE . A recent Al Jazeera report shows that fraud networks around the country have been circulating fake voter ID cards. there' s no viable alternative. the head of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) said . 2010.

washingtonpost.-led troops make a push into rural Kandahar. AFGHANISTAN . Kandahar. Top U. a nd other parts of the Afghan south. w orry persists inside the White House and the Pentagon about whether the effort to expel the Ta liban will be enough to bring stability to a nation where poor governance and rampant corrupti on are seen as the primary drivers of chaos. Washington Post.S. officers in Afghanistan expressed confidence in the potential of the Ka ndahar offensive and the gains already made.S. September 19. 2010. and Afghan troops flowed into rural areas west of t his city in the past week in a new push that NATO commanders said would clear out Taliban fi ghters and allow Afghan security forces to take control of the spaces left behind. (dm) KANDAHAR PUSH WON'T STABALIZE AFGHANISTAN Karin Brulliard and Greg Jaffe. The major thrust into the farming districts of Zhari and Panjwayi represented an escalation in the military's slow-moving operation to secure the surrounding province..html KANDAHAR. U. (dm) . http://www. But even as more soldiers head to the front lines.U.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2010/09/18/AR2010091803744.S.

The frenetic pace of election day now gives way to a period of weeks and months of uncertainty as the IEC counts ballots and candidates and observers file fraud complaints.300 complaints have been submitted verbally. militant attacks have doubled sinc e last summer. 2 010.4 million in the 2005 parliamentary vote. Uncertainty ahead in Afghanistan. the country's large st domestic monitoring group.html The Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA). The number of cast ballots is an imprecise measure.washingtonpost.html Turnout had dimmed compared to Afghanistan's previous elections: 3." (dm) WATCHDOG GROUP AGREES THAT VOTER FRAUD IS WIDESPREAD Gregg Carlstrom and Evan Hill. Nationwide.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2010/09/18/AR2010091803744. "But now we've got 35 adjudicating bodies. Uncertainty ahead in Afghanistan. http://english.net/news/asia/2010/09/2010919103029603662. said in a statement shortly after polls closed that it had "se rious concerns about the quality of the elections. It's quite difficult getting detailed information. Washington Post. and 6." By the Numbers ." said an ECC official .6 milli on valid votes in last year's presidential election. September 19. An other 1. U. 2010.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 109 of 129 www. September 19.html But it is unclear whether military achievements in the south and elsewhere are b eing outpaced by the gains of the Taliban. compared with 4.com TALIBAN CLAIMING VICTORY IN THE SOUTH Karin Brulliard and Greg Jaffe. 2 010.S. http://english. (dm) VOTER TURNOUT DOWN.net/news/asia/2010/09/2010919103029603662. FRAUD MAY BE UP Gregg Carlstrom and Evan Hill.68 million ba llots were cast. the joint Afghan-international body that investigates them.aljazeera. More than 100 complaints have already been filed. with final results are not expected until Oct ober 30. al though he could not cite a figure. Pr eliminary numbers are expected on October 1. according to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). http://www.victorybriefs. September 19.-led troops make a push into rural Kandahar. The number of assassinations in the city of Kandahar rose in August. Insurgents have begun to spread throughout northern areas whe re their presence was previously marginal. but the ECC says they will not be revie wed unless they're put into writing. according to the Electoral Com plaints Commission (ECC). "Last year. w e don't even have email links with some of the provinces. whose leader recently declared that his movement was w inning. Hodges said. everything was adjudicated at the head office.aljazeera. assuming that a significant numbe r of fraudulent ones will be invalidated. as they were last year. however.

when one pers on votes on behalf of others. and proxy voting . under-age voting.000 observers deployed across the country. reported a "worrying number" of government officials interfering in the election process.FEFA. The group a lso documented incidents of ballot-stuffing. which had more than 7. (dm) .

Associated Press. Haji Waheedullah Kalimzai." That number of votes would equal around 2 per cent of Uruzgan's registered voter population.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 110 of 129 www. for example.google. In Uruzgan province. sa id that there were "widespread irregularities" during the vote. reportedly paid them $200 each to commit the fraud.html Despite the drop in election-day violence. and proceeded "to cast 4. http://www. September 19.aljazeera. two from insurgent attacks in the north and east." That distinction may be academic. Between May 4 and July 15. warning them not to participate in the election. though. September 19. Reports of fraud also came from a variety of monitoring organisations. the majority of which were Taliban threats to the general population or candidates.html Staffan de Mistura. 2 010. months of prior threats seem to have had an effect. Press accounts suggested that individual candidates could benefit strongly from acts of fraud. 2010. the United Nations special representative in Afghanistan. http://english. September 19. 2 010.aljazeera. and from the Pajhwok news agency. because under Afghanistan's "single no n-transferable vote" system. A candidate. (dm) REAL VIOLENCE WASN'T NECESSARY TO DISRUPT THE VOTE .net/news/asia/2010/09/2010919103029603662. including FEFA and Democracy International. candidates do not need a majority to win a seat in parliament. Sma ll-scale acts of fraud . And in Wardak province. Uncertainty ahead in Afghanistan.net/news/asia/2010/09/2010919103029603662. the Christian Science Monitor reported that election wor kers closed down a polling centre in the morning and spent the afternoon hours stuffing ball ots.in some provinces.STORIES OF BALLOT STUFFING Gregg Carlstrom and Evan Hill. hundreds of ethnic Hazaras reportedly seized a po lling centre in the Khas Uruzgan district. (dm) FINAL RESULTS WON'T BE KNOWN FOR MONTHS Heidi Vogt. just a few thousand votes . Uncertainty ahead in Afghanistan. the country's largest news service. and one from a "non-battle injury". 'Serious concern' over fraud at Afghan elections. http://english. Nato also reported that five service members were killed on Saturday .are enough to change the slate of winning candidates. FEFA documented more than 60 instances of intimidatio n.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvWEqwq3CrRvaQCmt21MfoYhjZJQD9 IB . but no evidence of what he called " massive fraud.THREATS CRUSHED TURNOUT Gregg Carlstrom and Evan Hill.200 ballots for their candid ate.two from an improvised explosive device explosion in the south.com AFGHANISTAN'S VOTING SYSTEM INCENTIVIZES FRAUD .victorybriefs.

and then there will be weeks of fraud inve stigations before winners are officially announced for the 249 parliamentary seats. full p reliminary results are not expected until early October.42VG0 While the first vote counts are due to be made public in a few days time. The resolution of last year's vote took months.500 candidates. But there are likely to be a host of fraud complaints in each province which could d rag the process on even beyond that target date. which were con tested by about 2. The election commission has said it hopes to release final results by the end of October. (dm) .

September 19.000 troops in the country and have spent billions trying to shore up Karzai's administration. and a light turnout. Afghanistan election: Why the next parliament won't check Karzai's power. The y are hoping which won't be sorted out and seated for months will be that the next parliament come a more effective check on Afghanistan's executive branch. many of whom have serious doubts about fully trusting Mr. who have 140. http://www. and that candidates installed despite accusation s of fraudulent voting could lead to a rubber-stamp parliament in the hands of the government. President Hamid Karzai could try to dodge his term limit or step u p negotiations with the Taliban in an effort to retain power. whichever parliamentary candidates end up victorious once results finally trickle in will play a role in the coming scrum for power as int ernational forces draw down over the five-year term ahead. Still. 'Serious concern' over fraud at Afghan elections. an d at least in key urban centers.google.com ELECTION LEGITIMACY IS KEY TO STABALIZATION Heidi Vogt. an election perceived as legitimate could go some way to building publi c faith in a democratic system which has struggled to take root since the hardline Taliban re gime was ousted in a U. The election drew a wide array of candidates. it could have a profound effect both inside the country and with Afghanistan's international backers. because the c andidates mostly ran as individuals rather than under the banner of parties or the disorganized o pposition movement. Associated Press.-led invasion in 2001. These issues are of intense interest to fractious opposition forces and outside governments alike.com/World/Asia-SouthCentral/2010/0919/Afghanistan-election-Why-the-next-parliament-won-t-check-Karza i-s-power Afghanistan's election on Saturday was tarnished by attacks that killed at least 12 people. http://www. Abdullah Abdullah. Specifically. the runner-up to Karzai in the 2009 poll.S.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvWEqwq3CrRvaQCmt21MfoYhjZJQD9 IB 42VG0 If Afghans don't accept the results of the vote. September 19. (dm) FAILURE TO SECURE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR TRULY DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS WILL DEEPEN KARZAI'S ABILITY TO CORRUPT THE GOVERNMENT Ben Arnoldy [Staff writer].csmonitor. 2010. campaigning was vigorous and citizens on Saturday voiced resolve in voting despite the threat of militant attack. 2010. Karzai's judgment. But the new parliament is unlikely to be a strong check on Karzai. reports of fraud. Also in the mix will be a decision ove r long-term basing rights for American troops.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 111 of 129 www.victorybriefs. has suggested there could be unrest if voters feel disenfranchised. . However.

To be sure. to deal with them. unfortunately. has no party but has the apparatus of government." says Sabrina Saqib. (dm ) . with which he could influence votes legally and illegally. thereby getting little done. Afghan political parties are mostly irrelevant. meanwhile." She decided not to stand for the new parliament because it would once again be 2 49 members each working alone. allowing him indirect avenues through which to financially support p liant MPs. His family also controls major businesses like the troubled Kabul Bank. when we are individuals. will be even weaker than the current one. other players put money into the election for disparate reasons."I believe that the next parliament. a member of Parliament from Kabul. "Because we are all running as individuals. Karzai. it's very easy to buy MPs. having been largely discredited during the initial decades of the Afghan conflict.

Foreign Policy. and to get away with it. 2nd Infantry Division. http://afpak.com/wpdyn/ content/article/2010/09/18/AR2010091803935_pf. fatal attack on Jan.S. one day l ast winter.foreignpolicy. 15 was the start of a months-long shooting spree against Afghan civilians that resulted in some of the grisliest allegations against American soldiers since the U. platoon in Afghanistan accused of killing civili ans for sport.com/posts/2010/09/20/speculation_about_afghanistans_e lection . The subsequent investigation has raised accusations about whether the military i gnored warnings that the out-of-control soldiers were committing atrocities. Then. Two more slayings would follow. floated the idea. Members o f the platoon have been charged with dismembering and photographing corpses. citing the ongoing investigation. According to charging documents. Washington Post. tossing a fragmentary gr enade on the ground.S. attemp ts to impede the investigation and a retaliatory gang assault on a private who blew the whistle. soldiers hatched a plan as simple as it was savage: to randomly target and kill an Afghan civilian. Military documents allege that five members of t he unit staged a total of three murders in Kandahar province between January and May. Speculation about Afghanistan's election. including hashish use.victorybriefs. Septembe r 20. 2010. The father of one s oldier said he repeatedly tried to alert the Army after his son told him about the first killin g. The "ki ll team" activated the plan. Members of U.html AT JOINT BASE LEWIS-MCCHORD. as well as hoardi ng a skull and other human bones.washingtonpost. Nor have they explained how the attacks could have persisted without attracting scrutiny. One soldier created a ruse that they were under attack.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 112 of 129 www. They declined to comment on the case beyond the charges that have been filed. (dm) AFGHANI ELECTIONS SHOULD PROMPT DOUBT ABOUT ISAF Joshua Foust. a solitary Afghan man approached them in the village of La Mohammed Kalay. Then others opened fire. The U. only to be rebuffed. the unprovoked. invasion in 2001. Army officials have not disclosed a motive for the killings and macabre behavior .S. http://www. rogue members of a platoon from the 5th Stryker Combat Brigade.com NATO SUPPORT TROOPS KILLED CIVILIANS FOR SPORT Craig Whitlock. WASH. according to Army charging documents. 2010. But a review of military court documents and interviews with people familiar wit h the investigation suggest the killings were committed essentially for sport by soldiers who had a fondness for hashish and alcohol. Seven other soldiers have been charged with crimes related to the case. September 18. For weeks.

there are still some lesso ns we can draw from the event. launched a high profile campaign to defeat the Taliban earlier this yea r. For one. the tiny. Marjah. If nothing else.While the Afghan election is a process. this should prompt skepticism of the International Secur ity Assistance Force (ISAF)'s entire government-in-a-box idea.S. (dm) . was nearly empty. not an event. which says you can immediately rep lace destroyed institutions with functioning ones and declare victory. That clearly d idn't happen. isolated farming community in central Helmand where the U.

foreignpolicy. (dm) .victorybriefs. raising the troubling question of collaboration between elected members of parliament an d the insurgency. though it requires a fair amount of speculation. http://afpak. as well. Foreign Policy. It would exp lain the lowered levels of insecurity on Saturday: there is no reason to engage in violence if yo ur own people are running. ISAF recently attacked a convoy of cars in Takhar. Speculation about Afghanistan's election. one of the occupants of those cars was a candidate running for parli ament. While ISAF claims they killed a senior member of the Islamic Moveme nt of Uzbekistan.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 113 of 129 www. or insurgent groups could be fielding their own candidates for office. a small province in northeast Afghanistan.com/posts/2010/09/20/speculation_about_afghanistans_e lection But there might be a bright side to the election. Candidates could either be working with insurgent leaders for some r eason. Septembe r 20. 2010.com AFGHANI CANDIDATES MAY BE WORKING WITH TERRORISTS Joshua Foust.

estimated at 35-40 percent. or toiling in the drug industry is more about making money than about religion or ideology.taxes' from companies moving goods around the count ry and into Afghanistan from abroad. Even with the surge of U. Turkey. Policy analysts at the RAND Corporation. Providence Journal. But civilian casualties caused by U. CT THE AFGHAN SECURITY SITUATION IS DETERIORATING WE'RE LOSING THE WAR IN EVERY PART OF THE COUNTRY. Wali and John V.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 114 of 129 www. I didn't anticipate a major change in the safety conditions since my last trip in April. Some elements of the Pakistani army are widely believed to continue their support for the Taliban and other insurgent groups operating in Afghanistan. AND TOTAL NUMBERS ARE HIGH. attacks are also a motivator.victorybriefs. International jihadi groups. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. Today.S. continue to finance the insurgency. A B ottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan . cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. In early 2002 only a handful of Taliban militants remained active in Afghanistan. I expected things to have stayed mainly the same within the shor t window of time .000 to 20. Additionally. Parachini.000. Afghanistan's unemployment rate.com WE RE LOSING THE WAR/CURRENT STRATEGY IS INEFFECTIVE TALIBAN RECRUITMENT IS UP. Finally. 15 July 2010. estimates of active fighters range from 15. uneducated and unskilled youth. Providence Journal. troops. Shaaker. Dorronsoro. Wali and John V. There are many reasons why the Taliban elite are uninterested in negotiating for peace. expert on Afghan istan. 15 July 2010. Security in Afghanistan is clearly deteriorating. CT THE TALBIAN HAS STRONG FINANCING NETWORKS AND FERTILE GROUND FOR RECRUITING. working for regional warlords. For many poor. This ongoing access to cash explains in part the lack o f interest in peace talks by the Taliban. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . virtual ly all the insurgent networks are able to extort . When I arrived in Afghanistan this summer. taxation and trade of illegal drugs serve as another major source of funding. Parachini. particularly among th e Taliban. Shaaker. and South Asia. Production . helps the insurgents recruit. 9 September 2010. joi ning insurgent factions. Gilles.S. A B ottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan . as well as some rich individuals from the Gulf states. There is little question that insurgent recruitment is up. Policy analysts at the RAND Corporation.

progress will take at least five years to ma terialize. While the co alition is talking about progress in a few districts. counterinsurgency strategy was rolled out. I was wrong. the second largest city in Afghanis tan. and forced the United States to rethink its ambitious agenda. according to the Commandant of the Marine Corps. There was a palpable regression. With an aggressive counteri nsurgency campaign in Marja. The fightin g is currently strongest in a small district north of Kandahar city where there are a series of military bases. Operations in Kandahar will be even more difficult because the insurgents enjoy strong popular support west of the c ity and this is where the most severe fights will take place in the next few months.S. But months after the offensive started. The conditions have only gotten worse since the new U. coalition troops have been working to suppress the local insu rgency. the general picture is quite different. U. The lac k of progress in Helmand delayed plans to move onto Kandahar. Marja remains unstable and insecure. James T. where the coalition has used its best troops.S. While this is a strategically important location for controlling the city. In He lmand.between trips. forces have been unable to extend control beyond their bases it takes hours to go just hundreds of meters outside . Conway.

In the south. The Taliban are trying to take the fight to every part of Afghanistan and are su ccessfully gaining control as the group becomes more of a national movement. With the center of the city remaining safe. CT THE TALIBAN IS IRREVESIBLY ASCENDENT VICTORY OVER THEM IS NO LONGER REALISTIC. And the Taliban have . and it's becoming increasingly difficult to gain a tactical success in a single loca tion that could have wider tangible implications for the war. in the Chamkani district in the east and according to early indications this has been received positively. there are fewer and fewer places outside the city that are reachable by car. but these efforts are unlikely to change the course of the entire struggle. While it's too early to tell how these efforts will progress. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. Special forces have been able to build a tribal shura. 9 September 2010.victorybriefs. The progress of the insurgency is now i rreversible as the Afghan government is too weak to roll back the insurgents. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . expert on Afghan istan. The strategy is workin g as the conflict spreads across the country. minor progress in the east won't have any concrete impact on the overall direction of the war itself. They are progressively surrounding the capital and tightening their control in adjacent areas. despite concerted American campaigns. Gilles. Without many more troops than would ever be feasible for the United States or NATO to supply. In the east. it's more complicated than that as there are locations with local comma nders who are not dependent on Kabul. Dorronsoro. the United States is trying to implement a poli tical strategy. the Taliban are successfully holding their ground with low levels of casualties in Kandahar and Helmand. And they have failed to build a local militia or strong ties with inf luential people. even where they are not. the coalition will be unable to face all the th reats at once. The Taliban are too powerful in the south to defeat. The Taliban are in charge in many places and. The isolation of Kabul is putting further strain on the government and coalition as they cannot easily travel outs ide the capital. It's dangerous to drive as govern ment employees risk being killed and foreigners are in danger of being captured. even to foreigners. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. or leadership council.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 115 of 129 www. The Taliban have placed checkpoints on the roads out of Kabul in the north and south. Things are also going badly in the north. the Afghan go vernment has no real support.com on patrol. The presence of the T aliban can even be felt in Kabul. Of course it's not a situation where areas wholly support the g overnment or the Taliban. Turkey. and South Asia.

A clear indication is that int ernational nongovernmental organizations are beginning to deal directly with the Taliban as they need their support to operate effectively. CT . the Taliban are the only effective force in many areas. Right now. that international groups can now expect to receive a paper that is stamped and seale d by the Taliban to work in some Taliban-controlled areas. The process has become so formalized.successfully discouraged local partners from working with the coalition. The services provided are limited. for exampl e. In esse nce. but efficient. the Taliban are building a shadow state.

9 September 2010.com US STRATEGY IS FAILING THE SURGE HASN'T PRODUCED ANY MEANINGFUL RESULTS. and South Asia. So far. Burke Chair in Strategy. 9 September 2010.S. The United States has a failing strategy in Afghanistan. Dorronsoro. and South Asia. Turkey. Gilles. expert on Afghan istan. while the United States would have to use a large p ortion of its forces just to hold them.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 116 of 129 www. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. Washington conti nues to funnel money to the Pakistani government to move against the Afghan Taliban but this is y esterday's policy. it would not kill the insur gency. Despite argu ments to the contrary. The idea that the coal ition can win the hearts and minds of the people is too optimistic without concrete results. however. Center for Strategic a nd International .S. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . additional troops have not translated into a tactical victory. Since last year there h as not been one serious element of progress and the situation will not improve without a strateg ic recalculation. The United States must start using the situation to its own advantage. the higher levels of casualties in the coalition do not equal progress on the gr ound. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. efforts can defeat t he insurgents. Arleigh A. Cordesman. expert on Afghan istan. U. And e ven if the situations in Kandahar and Marjah improve two big ifs the Taliban will remain a stro ng movement across Afghanistan. Dorronsoro. The coalition has not been successful in Marjah and is fighting without clear political object ives in Kandahar because it's not able to reform the local administration. the United State s should use the links to start talking. if Islamabad loses influence over the Afghan Taliban. policy on Pakistan. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. Anthony H. In fact. Turkey. CT OBAMA'S PLAN HAS BEEN SUBJECT TO SERIOUS DELAYS THAT HAVE COMPROMISED ITS CHANCES OF EFFICACY.victorybriefs. But the Taliban are growing stronger and there are no indications that U. is disconnected from reality. It's far too late for the Pakistani army to reverse course. Gilles. CT FIGHTING THE TALIBAN IN PAKISTAN IS A LOST CAUSE. And even if Washington got what it wanted and high-level Taliban leaders were arrested. it will be a loss for Washing ton. Washington wants to weaken the Taliban by beefing up the counterinsurgency campa ign to the point where the Taliban will be forced to ask for amnesty and join the governmen t. Instead of trying to disconnect the Pakistani government from the Taliban. The Taliban are too strong and the remaining players in Afghanistan will refuse to negotiate .

Center for Strategic and International Studies.Studies. 16 July 2010. The plans for the civilian surge were never credible and led to inevitable delay s. President Obama's review consumed 4 months of critical time in a 12-18 month cam paign plan. Military movements had their own delays. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . CT . and key elements of operational plans were too c onceptual from the start and assumed far more rapid and easy progress in the hold and buil d phases than proved possible in test areas like Marja.

16 July 2010.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 117 of 129 www. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . This deadline inevitably affects goals and expectations that have long been set at un realistically high levels for both civil and military operations. President Obama attempted to qualify the deadline he set in his speech for the b eginning of US withdrawal in August 2011. Anthony H. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies.victorybriefs.com THE PERCEPTION OF A WITHDRAWAL DEADLINE HAS LED TO RUSHED AND INEFFECTIVE POLICY ON THE GROUND. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Cordesman. Many Afghan officials and officers. Burke Chair in Strategy. are at best confused and at worst privately believe that we will leav e. Cordesman. Canadian and Netherlands' withdrawal i n 2011. and fai led to show effective leadership between 2002 and 2008. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. Moreover. and a llied officers and diplomats. Burke Chair in Strategy. Cordesman. far too little tangible pla nning is being carried out for the period beyond August 2011. with a sharp decoupling of civil and mili tary plans that separate the military campaign and transition to increasing ANSF responsibility from aid plans that often are far too conceptual and stovepiped and that effectively mark a pre mature return to post-conflict reconstruction. Arleigh A. Any visitor to Afghanistan also sees efforts at every level to rush operations in time to meet November 2010 and July 2011 reporting deadlines. The end result is that a vague de facto deadl ine exists. Anthony H. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . Center for Strategic . Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. and recent Polish calls for withdrawal. Arleigh A. Allied war fatigue compounds the problem. The end result is often that oper ations and actions that have a far better chance of succeeding over six months to a year longer are bein g rushed in ways that sharply increase the risk of failure. but this message has failed to get across in spite of repeated efforts by senior US commanders and officials. Anthony H. Some of this is unavoidable. are symbols of the fact that the legislature s and population of many ISAF countries no longer believe in this war. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . 16 July 2010. CT THE AFGHAN ARMY IS NOT BEING EFFECTIVELY READIED TO TAKE OVER SECURITY. CT NATO COMMITMENT IS WAVERING THE COALITION WON'T HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO SUCCEED IN AFGHANISTAN. Arleigh A. given the length and cost of the conflict and the fact that the US obtained much of its present a llied support by describing the mission as peacekeeping and post conflict reconstruction. Burke Chair in Strategy.

Giving NTM-A and the partnering effort even an additional year. and time to put more emphasis on quality and tra nsition over quantity and immediate employment. Moreove r. Goals have been set for the development of the Afghan National Security Forces t hat emphasis force quantity over force quality. CT . ISAF had only deployed 23% of the required trainers as of early May 2010. These goals may well rush a force into the fi eld that is used up in the process. 16 July 2010. and the ANCOP force is still under so much stress that it has 80% attrition. The end result may well also delay operations and transition by using up key elements of the ar my and paramilitary ANCOP police force. The Army is effectively being pushed towards its present short-term force goal two y ears early. therefore denying a basis for transition from US and allied forces. or risk serious reversals if ISAF tries to rely on the force.and International Studies. could make the difference between strategic s uccess and strategic failure.

' serious prob lems in the effectiveness of the civilian aid effort. This is partly a result of the fact that it is taking much longer to put the military and civilian elements of the new strategy in place th an was initially anticipated when it was formed. Afghanistan: A Progress Report . massive shortfal ls in the capability of Afghan governance. a nd has not yet demonstrated it can be scaled up to achieve broad success or achieve success at the rate that the US and its allies are willing to accept. still tentative.surge' is just completing deployment. 15 September 2010. Center for Strategic and International St udies. the continuing failure of the counternarcotics effo rt. and will take months to become fully effective. Anthony H.transition. the data in this p art of the analysis shows that many challenges are proving to be more serious than many had hoped in forming the new strategy. and which is not a base for major international terroris t activity. At the same time. It is clear. The reports do show progress in many critical areas. and the lack of effective unity of effort on both the civil and military sides of the ISAF allia nce.' None of these issues mean the war cannot be won. Arleigh A. Center for Strategic and International St udies.com MAJOR DIFFICULTIES CONFRONT THE CURRENT NATO STRATEGY. that the US and I SAF have not yet shown that the new strategy is working. Anthony H. These include the adaptiveness and resilience of the insurge ncy. 15 September 2010.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 118 of 129 www. It is also li kely that it will be at . a continuing rise in the IED threat (which has become the Stinger of this Afghan W ar). Much of the so-called . Burke Chair in Strategy. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. Once again progress is being made. Burke Chair in Strategy. CT THERE IS NOT YET ANY EVIDENCE THAT CURRENT STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN IS WORKING. Cordesman. the problems raised by Afghan casualties. Major problems still exist in key areas where progress is essential to the succe ss of the US and NATO/ISAF strategy. if winning means creating an Afghanistan with a mode rate level of stability and security. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies.war of perceptions. problems in winning the . These include problems in building up the US and allied civil and military capabilities in the field needed to implement the new strategy. or that either the Afghan or outside res ources are available to implement the necessary progress on a national scale. Afghanistan: A Progress Report .victorybriefs. but that progress is slow. and major problems in developing a mix of Afghan security forces that can both fight the war and provide a lasting basis for . Cordesman. however. Arleigh A.

and actual success will take another half decade if such a form of victory can be achieved.least the end of 2011 before it is clear whether the new strategy has a high pro bability of success. CT .

2009.Lightly armed and poorly trained. Bharoocha. and support for the terrorizing warlords by the US have left a bad taste in the minds of Afghan population in general.bbc. Quentin. the result of demorali sation and the threat of death rather than the deliberate infiltration of the ranks by anti-government elements. but th e results were almost totally useless. this ha s in turn widen the gap between the population and police officials. Reporter. 30 August 2010. Afghan National Police has been f ighting insurgency and providing security to the level strictly conferring to armed forces. a private corporation that hir ed retired American police officers with no knowledge of Afghanistan to train Afghan police. BBC News.000 policemen. mainly in the south and east. http://www. Lecturer. Sommerville. Already there a re reports of police defections to the Taliban. it would appear. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. and many broken dreams of the Afghan people seem to have developed an initial positive response into a negative one. Apart from t his fact. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. April 21. This impacts police morale and will ultimately undermine recruitment. it is also a question of delegating the responsibilities. The stories of excesses by occupation forces. The high levels of insecurity. 2009. Asim.uk/news/world-south-asia-11133146 . 2009. CT US-AFGHAN TENSIONS HIGH. ISRA University.co.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 119 of 129 www.com US TRAINING OF AFGHAN POLICE HAS BEEN TOTALLY INEFFECTIVE. The US decided to takeover police training in 2003 the State Department subcontr acted police training in Afghanistan to DynCorp International. The trained Afghan policemen returned home and continued acting in the same rapacious ways as before.victorybriefs. ANP deaths are three times higher than those of the Afghan National Army (ANA). the United States was to spend $860 million in training 40. HAS HURT RATHER THAN HELPED STABILITY. Afghanistan's Karzai 'doubts Nato antiTaliban policy' . and numbers are on track to be the sa me in 2008. . April 21. Asim. Bharoocha. Bharoocha. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. Asim. The Afghan National Police is one of the most invested and planned sector of the rebuilding process. CT NATO FORCES AND OPERATIONS INCREASINGLY UNPOPULAR IN AFGHANISTAN. instability. Between 2003 to 2005.' CT ANP DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN A FAILURE. April 21. Lecturer. often. Lecturer. But due to poor planning and corruption ANP has backfired. ISRA University. In 2007 around 1. ISRA University. DynCorp was training the police to fight an insurgency r ather than win hearts and minds in their localities.200 police were killed.

the chief of administration for the National Se curity Council. say the bribe was intended to discourage Afghan officials from investig ating a company which is accused of transferring billions of dollars out of the country.Relations are increasingly fractious between President Karzai's government and t he United States. who have trained by US an d British mentors. Zia Salehi. Afghanistan's national security adviser. Salehi was being paid by the CIA. Rangin Dadfar Span ta. Anti-corruption investigators. The Afghan government has been angered by America's growing focus on off icial corruption in Kabul. has rejected US media reports that one of the government's top officials was on the payroll o f the Central Intelligence Agency. was detained by Afghan police in July after he was allegedly heard soliciting a brib e in a wiretapped telephone conversation. CT . A subse quent New York Times newspaper report alleged Mr.

CT . The report said 2.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 120 of 129 www. The New York Times. a jump of 14 percent over the previous year. Anot her 3. CT EVEN WITH NEW GUIDELINES INTENDED TO PROTECT CIVILIANS. 13 January 2010. Foreign Correspondent. Says . But the trucks had stalled in a riverbed. the United Nations report said. Indeed. with the Taliban and other insurgent groups causing the vast majority of n oncombatant deaths. 4 . Dexter. One of the worst of these came on Sept. according to a United Nations survey released Wednesday. U. 13 January 2010. airstrikes are the main cause of civilian deaths by the coalition.N. Filkins. Says . Last year was the most lethal for Afghan civilians since the American-led war be gan here in late 2001. the United Nations survey found. Dexter. Even with the new guidelines. when German troops called in an airstrike after militants hijacked a fuel convoy near the no rthern city of Kunduz. Filkins.N.com CIVILIAN CASUALITIES HIGH AFGHAN CIVILIAN DEATHS REACHED THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL YET IN 2009. 359 Afghans were kille d in airstrikes in 2009. The New York Times.412 civilians were killed in 2009. New York Times '09 Deadliest Year for Afg hans. U. The bombing killed at least 72 civilians. New York Times '09 Deadliest Year for Afg hans. Foreign Correspondent. and local residents had gathered aroun d them. 359 AFGHANS WERE KILLED BY AIRSTRIKES ALONE LAST YEAR. which took effect in the middle of last year.victorybriefs.566 were wounded.

did not rely on . One thing seems clear: The impossible goals and dreams of rapid political and ec onomic development. President Karzai will marginalize progressives and use the elections for his own political gain. 16 July 2010. Anthony H. CT NATO ENTERED AFGHANISTAN WITH UNREALISTIC GOALS AND CREATED AN UNWORKABLE SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT. CT KARZAI'S ELECTORAL MANIPULATION HAS UNDERMINED THE PERCEIVED LEGITIMACY OF THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. expert on Afghan istan. Gilles. Turkey. Center for Strategic and International Studies. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. a badly drafted Western constitution. Arleigh A. The political process will be extremely corrupt and the i nternational community won't be able to monitor the election on the ground. creation of a Western-style rule of law. Cordesman. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies.com AFGHAN POLITICAL SYSTEM WEAK/CORRUPT/ILLEGITIMATE NATION-BUILDING IN AFGHANISTAN HAS FAILED: THE AFGHAN POLITICAL PROCESS IS CORRUPT AND THE AFGHAN LEGISLATURE IS IRRELEVANT. The parliamentary elections scheduled for September will in many ways be a rerun of last year's presidential campaign. and Afghan power brokers have become far stron ger while Afghan capacity in governance has made limited progress. More than eight years into the war. who appeared to have already rigged the election in the summer of 2009. Still. and the Afghan National De velopment Plan were little more than idealistic dreams decoupled from Afghan realities and Afghan desires. he simply marginalizes the parliament. Anthony H.victorybriefs. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . If Karz ai wants to do something. 9 September 2010. Cordesman. and South Asia. Karzai. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. The Afghan Compact. Karzai is increasingly going arou nd parliament and through a jirga a tribal gathering of leaders to establish new policies. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. Dorronsoro. Burke Chair in Strategy. the legislative election is in limbo. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . the last Presidential election is still a po litical nightmare.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 121 of 129 www. the electi ons will not be a major development in determining Afghanistan's fate. Arleigh A. and quick progress in huma n rights was never going to take place even if the challenge had really been post-conflict re construction and the insurgency had not been allowed to fester without serious opposition for hal f a decade. 16 July 2010. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Burke Chair in Strategy.

The controversy following the election c onsumed 4-6 months. CT . has led to the resignation of key officials. divided Karzai from the US. and left GIRoA with far more uncertain legitimacy while sharply undermining US influence. This has a ffected every aspect of GIRoA and ANSF support for the war.power brokering to give him a majority.

and issues like the rights of women make token progress at best outside the areas where such rights already existed before the Taliban took over. Anthony H. the legislative election is in limbo. and Afghan power brokers have become far stron ger while Afghan capacity in governance has made limited progress. Cordesman.' They failed to understand that Afghans accept informal payments as part of the cost of normal life. Nearly 40% of the population i s partially dependent on UN food aid for basic subsistence. CT NATO COUNTRIES HAVE CREATED AND EXACERBATED THE CORRUPTION PROBLEM IN AFGHANISTAN. who in turn not only buy power with that money. who had limited loyalty or no abstract concept of governance. and the civil authorities and po lice remain largely corrupt and ineffective in much of the country. They did not consider the real world motivations of people invol ved in some 30 years of war and turmoil and who had no way to know if any given job or position would last more than a few months. ECONOMIC AND HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATIONS ARE ALL TERRIBLE. Cordesman. and all aid donors need to take responsibility for much of w hat is called . Arleigh A.com THE AFGHAN POLITICAL. They created a virtually un controlled flood of money that could be grabbed by Afghans who had not had any similar oppo rtunities in 30 years. Arleigh A. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. its allies. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. As for human rights. Center for Strategic and International Studies. traditional Afghans remain traditional Afghans. and who had the resulting ability to take that money to become wealthy and buy power in the process. So have the US and ISAF military who have given massive amounts of money to poorly supervised contr actors and others. Anthony H. but often pay a tax to i nsurgents in the process. They failed to see the importance of preserving the Afghan ci vil service and instead hired many Afghans away from the government. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War .victorybriefs. 16 July 2010.corruption. Burke Chair in Strategy. The US. Burke Chair in Strategy. It is th e Taliban that established the real rule of law in many areas. the last Presidential election is still a po litical nightmare. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War .10PF2-Afghanistan Page 122 of 129 www. These problems have been compounded by an emphasis on anticorruption dr ives that . and most Afghans have to do anyt hing they can to survive whether this involves opium or what the West calls corruption. More than eight years into the war. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Organ izations like UNAMA and AID have been massively corrupting forces in Afghanistan. 16 July 2010.

CT . and predictable resistance from any Afghan with the clout and wealth to avoid becomi ng a successful target. finding scapegoats.have had a predictable lack of effect. shuffling officials from one post to another. Rather than threaten the power structure. they lead to hollow investigations.

The end result bypassed the kind of less fo rmal justice Afghans wanted and needed. Cordesman. left much of the country without effective justice. insinuate into the larger body of politics of Afghanistan to make it more primit ive and unstable. CT THE CURRENT AFGHAN GOVERNMENT IS WEAK AND UNSTABLE. Anticorruption efforts cannot function at the local and regional levels under su ch circumstances. April 21. decoupled from credible policing and detention. Lecturer. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. and ignored the hopelessly low p ay and poor security for judges and prosecutors. It is mired with corruption. It ca n be safely assumed that once the backing of the US and NATO-led ISAF weakens or phases out. all these problems interacted with a past emphasis on building a forma l justice system whose resources and timescales were impossibly long and limited in near-term cov erage. It may be sa fe to say that more than the external factors. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. influence of warlords and weak political will. Asim. ineptness. Arleigh A. a nd empowered the Taliban to the point where it had enough presence to create its own prompt jus tice system. 2009.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 123 of 129 www. the warlordism and tribalism with all their accompany ing tendencies. Bharoocha. 16 July 2010. and creating local police becomes impossible when there is no real justice syste m for them to support and virtually any power broker or successful criminal can buy their way to the result they want. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . Although the Afghan political structure stands and works.victorybriefs. it cannot be called st able. Anthony H. Center for Strategic and International Studies. the who le structure will be engulfed in entropy featuring mainly a civil war situation. ISRA University. Moreover.com THE AFGHAN JUSTICE SYSTEM CREATED BY THE COALITION IS NON-FUCTIONAL. CT . Burke Chair in Strategy.

' An editorial in a prominent independent newspaper in Kabul presented a view of Tali ban era: . Asim. USAID humanitarian foo d deliveries and development were being taken over by the joint CIA-SOF teams. data collection shows that a lot of damage has also been done. All part ies in the conflict are to be blamed for destroying social fabric of Afghanistan. has led to a threat to the well-being and rights of hundreds of thousands of innocen t Afghan citizens. they may prefer the deadly rule of the Taliban . 2009. according to Human Rights Watch. ISRA University. reputation.victorybriefs. Moreover. mostly on roads or carri ed by suicide . such as group sexual assaults on children. capable of fostering stability at the community level. including a resurgence in Taliban forces. According to Amnesty International.Criminal activities. If people have to ch oose between a life under the extremely violent and horrible rule of the Taliban and a life und er a democratic government but exposed to threats against their family members. murders.up to 756 civilians were killed in 2006 by bombs.positive agents of change. Lecturer.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 124 of 129 www. extortions and being forced into giving ransoms to rescue family members. the Taliban are allegedly targeting civilian s. Lecturer. including teachers. 2009. sexual assaults on children. and re-ar med warlords. property and female members of their families are threatene d. record-high drug production. but when the law is not implemented in a democratic gove rnment. in many areas. The fallout of the U. kidnappings and extortion by gangs of abductors have now become a more serious threat than that of the Taliba n senior government officials in Kabul should beware of this danger. Bharoocha. their dignity. April 21. school buildings and other facilities. kidnappings.This is because under Taliban rule it is only their life that is in danger. April 21. abducting aid workers. Asim.com HUMAN RIGHTS LOW CONFLICT HAS DESTROYED THE SOCIAL FABRIC OF AFGHANISTAN. Afghan civil society was being str angled even as it emerged and the Afghan government was made to look incompetent and powerless.S. However. led invasion. ISRA University. Credible Afgha n tribal leaders who had been identified by the Afghan government or the UN as . Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. CT TALIBAN IS TERRORIZING AND MURDERING AFGHAN CIVILIANS. Amnesty International said that . were bypassed in favor of the commanders and warlords preferred by the CIA. Bharoocha. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions.

attackers belonging to the Taliban. rape. CT . and extortion. robbery.' Human Rights Watch holds former Afghan warl ords and political strongmen responsible for numerous human rights violations including k idnapping.

expert on Afghan istan. Center for Strategic a nd International Studies. CT AT FOREIGN AID/RECONSTRUCTION: AID AND RECONSTRUCTION MONEY HAVE ONLY DESTABILIZED LOCAL ECONOMIES. and the poor i nfrastructure. The idea behind provid ing more money for development was that it would improve the lives of the local population and marginalize the Taliban. lack of development. but the local economy wasn't able to absorb the cash. One of the severest problems in Afghanistan is that of poverty. Observer Research Foundation. In late 2009. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. Far too much aid planning and spending exists in a . it destabilizes the population and society.com ECONOMY WEAK THE AFGHAN ECONOMY IS STILL ABYSMAL. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. The concept.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 125 of 129 www. Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War . The United Nations (UN) Human Development Report of 2009 rated Afghanistan as th e world's second most impoverished country. Burke Chair in Strategy. the US has pledged US$10. 16 July 2010.08.bubble' that effect ively tries to ignore the fact that the nation is at war. CT AT FOREIGN AID: AID HAS BEEN INEFFECTIVE SINCE IT IGNORES THE REALITIES OF THE MILITARY SITUATION. however. and South Asia. The provincial reconstruction team pour ed $80-90 million into Kunar province in east Afghanistan in 2008 and 2009. 1 September 2010. Arleigh A. Much perhaps a majority of the foreign aid effort is still directed towards prog rams and goals that were set before the insurgency cast Afghanistan into a state of war. It's quite the opposite in fact. Sriparna. New Delhi. Turkey. Cordesman. When billions of dollars are dumped into the lo cal economy. bringing its total close to US$1 bill ion since 2008. Afghanistan relies on aid for around 90 per cent of its budget. 9 September 2010. In economic terms. Anthony H. Yet ano ther Great Game in Afghanistan: The US and China . Junior Fellow. It is time that the entire civil effo . Complementing the additional forces was a civilian surge. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . coupled with those of unemployment. Dorronsoro. DESPITE MASSIVE AID. Center for Strategic and International Studies. It fed corruption and reinforced a war economy where beneficiar ies are interested in perpetuating a low level of conflict.4 billion to Afghanistan for developmen t between 2002. Pathak. is not proven as there is no empirical data to su pport the theory. This e ffort remains decoupled from the real world security situation and the needs and perceptions o f ordinary Afghans. Ch ina allocated US$ 75 billion in economic aid to Afghanistan.victorybriefs. Gilles.

rt. and the rule of law must be tailored to this fact. economic s. dealt with the reality that Afghanistan is at war and that aid in governance. and be transparently accountable in the proce ss. CT . and all foreign aid.

protecting and accommodating Western aid officials i n palatial style helps to explain why Afghanistan ranks 174th out of 178th on a UN ranking of cou ntries' wealth. Kabul. Taliban insurgents have carried out a string of de adly attacks and now control large parts of the countryside where Afghan and international forces do not have . the h ead of policy and advocacy for Oxfam in Kabul.af ghanweb. CREATES TENSION AND RESENTMENT.The entire budget of the local department of a griculture.com AT FOREIGN AID: MOST AID MONEY GOES TO WESTERN ADMINISTRATORS AND CONSULTANTS.html Exorbitant sums of international aid to Afghanistan are being lavished by Wester n aid agencies on their own officials in the conflict-stricken country.000. people work and taxpayers pay money that goes to help Afghanistan to build roads.victorybriefs. . dams. http://www. irrigation and livestock. .But when the money comes to Afghanis tan. This money goes to these expenses 90 percent logistics and administr ation.' The ugly truth about foreign aid in Afghanistan surfaces at the time when the country has seen rising levels of violence in recent months.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 126 of 129 www.000 and who live in houses with a U SD 15. said. have been taken over or rebuilt to accommodate Westerners working for aid agencies or embassies. and electricity lines.000 a month to an aid organization. is just USD 40. the director of Property Consulting Afghanistan said.In the United States.' Ramazan Bashardost. foreign consultants in Kabul can command salaries of USD 250.' The high expenditure on paying. DOESN'T HELP AFGHANS.' said Matt Waldman. . Ugly truth about foreign aid in Afghanistan .I have just rented out this b uilding for USD 30. Districts across Afghan capital city.000 a year. 2009.000 monthly rent.000 to USD 500. which is extremely important for farmers in Badakhshan . Bashardost added. At a time when extreme poverty is turning yo ung Afghans to fight for the Taliban.I was in Badakhshan province in northern Afghanistan. The cupidity of aid agencies and the forei gn contractors that every bedroom should have an en-suite bathroom comes despite the fact that 77 percent of Afghans lack access to clean water. com/economy/foreign_aid. most of whom depend on farming. Britain. Press TV. . This would be the pay of an expatriate consultant in Kabul for a few mon ths. it's spent on those people who have cars costing USD 60. May 10. and other countries. an Afghan parliament member an d former planning minister. which has a population of 830.' Torialai Bahadery.000. The high degree of wastage of aid money in Afghanistan has even troubled the Afghan government. It was so expensive because it has 24 roo ms with en-suite bathrooms as well as armored doors and bullet-proof windows. .

CT .enough manpower to maintain a permanent presence.

ISRA University.giving them $57 million between 2001 and 2005 out of a total of $390 mill ion distributed to all NGOs. Such a large influx into the cities blew the unemployment and cr ime rates out of proportion. The proper roles of the military and civilian agencies have not been articulated. April 21. Lecturer. programs and r esources.The stark reality is that the United States does not have the right structural capability to stabilize and rebuild nations. CT PRT'S HAVE BEEN INEFFECTIVE. Quick impact projects became a Washington favorite. The CIA wanted every U. ISRA University.S. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions.victorybriefs. An d civilian players desperately need a 'unified command' structure to align policies. USAID became a source of funds for Christian fundamentalist NGOs active i n the Muslim world. such as digging a well. 2009. Responsibility is diffuse and autho rity is uncertain. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions.. Asim. reconstruction has to be done in such a way to get the ec onomy moving. the council on foreign relations was blunt about the situation: . most refugees returned to the c ities rather than to their villages. April 21. ISRA University. Bharoocha. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. this in turn overwhelmed the UN and the government.000 refugees were returning every week after US landed and overwhelmed Taliban. In a report after 9/11.. who were determined to ignore if not undermine USAID if such programs contradicted their own strategy. Lecturer. 2009.our first task is to rebuild the agricultural system . But everything is not very rosy. Asim. 2009. There is also a refugee problem. such projects invariably helped only the local warlord or commander the CIA was suppo rting.com US RECONSTRUCTION STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN IS FUNDAMENTALLY INEFFECTIVE. April 21. By early 2005 there were PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) in Afghanistan 1 . These were swift a nd cheap. 50. Asim. CT SINCE NATO INTERVENTION.' Natsios was quickly overruled by Rumsfeld at the pentagon and tenet at CIA. the head of USAID told his senior staff that .' Andrew Natsios. Bharoocha. In keeping with prevailing views in the republican party.10PF2-Afghanistan Page 127 of 129 www. Aid program to be used to help capture bin Laden and s trengthen the warlords rather than to rebuild the country. I nstead. RETURNING REFUGEES HAVE OVERWHELMED AFGHANISTAN'S SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE. and were supposed to convince the population that reconstruction was moving ahead. or repairing a broken-down sc hool building. Lecturer. The tra gedy was that due to the absence of investment in agriculture. Bharoocha. rebuilding a small bridge.

However.' CT . the establishment by every European government of . South and East. In 2006 NATO promised to place a PRT in all of Afghani stan's 34 provinces.4 of them manned by US forces and the rest by ISAF and NATO countries NATO assumed command of the ISAF force in Kabul in August 2003 and then took over from UPS forces in the Nor th.National Caveats stipulating what its PRT force could and could not do was to paralyze NATO's eff ectiveness in combating the Taliban. followed by the West.

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 128 of 129 www.victorybriefs. Another negative feature is the magnanimous drug cultivation a nd smuggling. The priorities are highly misplaced. CT . Overall. Question 2: Is the NATO presence having a stabilizing and positive effect on Afg han economy? Inference: The answer to this question is the most difficult to be stated. April 21. Lecturer. It has always been the indeginous will and effort. There are some projects and targets which have had quite a lot of success. the problem is the funding and development without a proper vision. ISRA University. that has put the country on prospero us tracks. Bharoocha.com ANY POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE AFGHAN ECONOMY IS SHORT-TERM AND WON'T BE HEALTHY OR SUSTAINED. On the other hand. the infrastructure building and con trol over the localized economic powerhouses of warlords are doing a huge damage to the overal l Afghan national economy. dir ection and coordination. There has never in history be en a case where only externally induced impetus for development and growth has had a positive ef fect. however. Implications of NATO Presence in Afgh anistan: The Internal Dimensions. these are mainly sho rt term and without a lasting impact. Asim. 2009.

10PF2-Afghanistan Page 129 of 129 www. and South Asia. the longer the United States waits to begin negotiations the smaller chance they will have to succeed. Gilles. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. CT NEGOTIATING NOW IS THE BEST OPTION. the sooner they begin the more likely they are to achi eve results. and South Asia. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . Dorronsoro.com NEGOTIATED WITHDRAWAL GOOD CONTINUED MILITARY OPERATIONS WILL BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE IN ACHIEVING LASTING PEACE THE WINDOW TO NEGOTIATE A REASONABLE SETTLEMENT WITH THE TALIBAN IS CLOSING FAST. and stable Afghanistan is widespread. expert on Afghan istan. CT . the American-led coalition needs to declare a ceasefire and begin talking to the Taliban. In the coming months. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. and me mbers of the Afghan government and Northern Alliance. Turkey. This is dangerous because the Taliban are less likely to talk in a year. Instead of a global war pitting the United St ates against jihadis. secure. Pakistani military. cisiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. Gilles. It needs to be relatively small at firs t as bringing in too many regional powers would only complicate negotiations. While the interest in a calm.victorybriefs. 9 September 2010. Carnegie Endowment for Internati onal Peace. Worsening Outlook in Afghanistan . Advocates of a continued push will argue that only now are the resources in plac e for the counterinsurgency strategy to be effectively carried out and more time is needed to assess results. the future needs to be in the hands of Afghans and only then will they find local solutions to the war. While negotiations coul d be an extremely long and fraught process. 9 September 2010. Negotiations must include the United States. The United States needs to Afghanize the war. Turkey. expert on Afghan istan. But this line of reasoning ignores reality that the strategy has alread y failed on the ground and there is no evidence that the situation can be reversed in strategically dec isive ways. Dorronsoro. Taliban. The way forward is apparent.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful