Tropical Meteorology (Revised Edition)
G.C. Asnani
Chapter 7
www.tropicalmeteorology.net

© All Rights Reserved

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Tropical Meteorology (Revised Edition)
G.C. Asnani
Chapter 7
www.tropicalmeteorology.net

© All Rights Reserved

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Contents

( Pages 7-1 to 7-10) the tropics :

Present difficulties about meteorological ( Pages 7-32 to 7-49)

observation in the tropics; FGGE; conventional Mes o-s ca le model parameterizatio ns;

methods of forecasting; numerical weather synoptic-scale models; moist convective

prediction in the tropics. adjustment; moisture convergence models.

7.3.1 Kuo’s parameterization schemes for deep

7.2 Initialization in the tropics : cumulus convection; moist adiabatic process.

( Pages 7-10 to 7-32) 7.3.2 Arakawa-Schubert Scheme for Cumulus

Necessity; model-consistent initialization; Parameterization

progress made in the field of initialization; 1. Cloud Ensemble

inadequacy of observational network; accuracy 2. Cloud sub-ensemble

of observations. 3. Cloud-work function A (λ)

4. Reduction of convective instability

7.2.1 Objective analysis of a chart and interpolation at 5. Influence of cloud-cloud interaction on A (λ)

grid-points; successive correction method; 6. Influence of large-scale processes on A (λ)

optimum interpolation of a single variable; 7. Quasi-stationary assumption about A (λ)

multi-variate optimum interpolation. 8. Calculation of K (λ, λ′)

7.2.2 Initialization for PE model; static initialization 9. Calculation of F (λ)

schemes; non-divergent balanced flow schemes; 10. Calculation of mB(λ′)

schemes with limited divergent flow; mass-wind 11.Schematic diagram

balance by variational technique; dynamic 12.Some sub-problems

initialization schemes; forward and backward Combined updraft-downdraft model; further

time-integration; normal mode initialization; work done on Arakawa-Schubert scheme of

Appendix 7.2( A) - Temp erton’ s( 1988) cumulus parameterization; gravity wave

scheme-normal modes; Appendix 7.2 (A’) - an parameterization in Arakawa-Schubert scheme.

improved version of the implicit non-linear NMI

scheme; bounded derivative method.

7.4 Summary of Chapter 7

7.2.3 Four-dimensional (4-D) data assimilation.

( Pages 7-49 to 7-51)

Physical initialization introduced by T.N.

Krishnamurti-what is physical initialization;

physical initialization tested on track-forecasting

of tropical cyclones; physical initialization tested

against Climatology.

iii) In respect of applications, Meteorology is

7.1 Introduction finding applications almost in all branches of

human activity in peace as well as in war.

i) The subject of Meteorology is becoming iv) Meteorology is becoming more global in

inter-disciplinary with important inputs from outlook as well as in routine daily operations. It is

different fields like Oceanography, Agriculture, a symbol of one-ness of this planet earth which is

Atmospheric Pollution, Astronomy, Space Physics, becoming more like a "village".

Geophysics and Biophysics. v) Meteorology uses the most sophisticated

ii) As a science, Meteorology is becoming instr um en tation for observations,

more quantitative using Physics, Pure Mathematics, telecommunications and analysis of observations.

Applied Mathematics, Statistics, Chemistry, Computers and satellites have become essential

Computer Science, Satellite Sensing, etc. tools in the meteorological world. Modelling of

7-2 7.1 Introduction

atmospheric phenomena with the help of computers errors amplify in course of time-integration by

is recognised as an essential tool in the development numerical methods? What is the upper time limit to

of science of meteorology. Satellites now constitute which numerical time integration can proceed to

a regular system of observing the atmosphere, the give reasonable forecasts?

land and the top layers of the oceans. x) It has been realised that quantitative

vi) The public and the Governments of the weather forecasting is more difficult for the tropics

world have become conscious of environmental than for the extra-tropics.

po llutio n and the consequent inadvertent xi) Solar and wind energies are available in

modification of the atmospheric constituents, with plenty. It is considered essential to develop

possible and sometimes noticeable changes in technology for using solar energy and wind energy.

climate. In particular, depletion of stratospheric These forms of energy are to be used along with

ozone, increase of CO2 and consequent warming of hydroelectric energy for which technology is

the troposphere, melting of ice, rising of sea- level already available. These forms of energy are

and shifting of rain belts is causing concern at the available in plenty in the tropics and in the

highest levels of science and administration sub-tropics. Some day, sub-tropics may become the

throughout the world. As a result, Heads of world’s best source for solar energy. However, for

Governments met at Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) in June all these three forms of natural energy (sun, wind

19 92 , to d ec ide o n way s to p rotect the and rainfall), meteorological observations are

land-ocean-atmosphere system of the earth; the essential.

meeting is known as the ‘Earth Summit’. xii) Meteorologists have also attempted to

vii) It is being realised that the anomalies of modify weather at various scales like fog-dispersal,

sea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropical region artificial rain-making, artificial hail-suppression and

are capable of producing weather anomalies tropical cyclone modification. Possibilities are seen

throughout the world. To study this problem, of modifying even global climate by planned

international scientific community has launched the interference with soil surface over extensive

programme TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global mountains and by icebreaking at some selected

Atmosphere). ocean straits. After initial enthusiasm, the attitude

viii) Meteorologists throughout the world towards weather modification has somewhat

are being urged to give weather forecasts for longer changed and it is now felt that we should go slow

periods of a few weeks to a few months, to help the with the operations in the field of weather

national and international administrators and modification and instead concentrate more on

planners to take appropriate decisions and steps in research modelling and understanding of the

advance. At the moment, forecasting for about ten physical processes and anticipating consequences of

days in advance has become the immediate target weather modification operations.

for many meteorological Services. All of them have In the earlier Chapters, we have touched

an eye on long-range weather forecasting a few upon different aspects of these meteorological

months in advance. At the moment, it is realised that problems. Here in this Chapter, we shall

for long-range forecasting statistical methods rather concentrate on problems connected with

than the methods of time-integration as in General numerical modelling of weather systems and

Circulation models, are the most suitable methods. also on using observation obtained through

For medium-range weather forecasting, the General satellites.

Circulation models are the most suitable ones, but Present difficulties about meteorological

improvements in these models are necessary, observations in the tropics :

particularly in respect of parameterization of The world’s least developed countries lie in

sub-grid physical processes of boundary layer the tropical region. The Governments of these

turbulence, cloud condensation and radiative countries are generally unable to invest their scarce

processes in the atmosphere. This is the most financial resources in setting up the network of

challenging scientific problem in NWP work. surface and upper air meteorological observatories.

ix) Observations and analysis of observations Already, more than two thirds of tropical region are

will always have some errors. At what rate will the covered by the oceans with no regular observation

7.1 Introduction 7-3

mostly agricultural. The Governments feel inclined iii) To guide the design of an optimum

to invest in meteorological Services, provided that meteorological observation and prediction system

they can be convinced that the agricultural economy of operational weather prediction which will, on a

of th eir cou ntr ies will benefit from the continuous basis, employ the technical and

meteorological observations and Services. These scientific knowledge developed during the

meteorological Services are in the form of : experiment; and

i) weather forecasting for short range (upto 2 iv) Within the limitations of a one year period

days), medium range (about a week), and long of observation, to investigate the physical

range (about a month or more) mechanisms underlying fluctuations in climate.

ii) utilisation of rainfall water, reduction of Duration :

evaporational loss of water, etc. for better Af ter a year of preparatory

water-management build-up-activity, the Experiment started on 1st

iii) improvement of agricultural production, December 1978 and ended on 30th November 1979.

and During this one year of operations, the most

iv) warnings against weather disasters. comprehensive programme ever undertaken for

The conventional network of surface and observing the earth’s atmosphere was successfully

upper air meteorological observations is generally carried out.

poor in tropical countries. The development of the Special Observing Periods (SOPs)

whole field of meteorology in the tropics has Within this one year of Experiment, there

generally been at a low level. The methods of were two special observing periods :

weather forecasting are the old conventional ones. 1) 5th January 1979 to 5th March 1979 and

It is also true that with the best network of 2) 1st May 1979 to 30th June 1979.

observations, the old conventional methods of There were three regional experiments

forecasting have reached their limit of success. No within the global experiment :

further substantial improvement is possible even i) MONEX (Monsoon Experiment).

with the most experienced forecasters. Experience ii) W AMEX (West African Monsoon

has provided the conventional forecasters with Experiment).

some thumb rules of weather forecasting, but in iii) POLEX (Polar Experiment).

their case quantitative understanding is lacking. In addition to the routine surface and upper

With these conventional methods of air observations, there were the following

forecasting, the skill score of the most additional observational aids :

experienced meteorologists has reached a i) About three hundred constant-level

near- steady value like a plateau, with no hope balloons floating near 14 km above sea level.

of further improvement. ii) Drop-Wind-Sondes from six aircraft

released each day, at 9 to 12 km level.

FGGE (First Garp Global Experiment) iii) 80 commercial jet aircraft taking in-flight

Objectives : observations.

The First Garp Global Experiment was the iv) Ocean vessels.

latest international venture to improve the quality v) Ocean buoys.

and time period of weather predictions by vi) 5 geo-stationary satellites and 2 polar

dynamical models. The four specific objectives of orbiting satellites.

the FGGE were : Research data :

i) To obtain a better diagnostic understanding The data collected during the Experiment

of the large-scale dynamics of the global period were made available to research workers

atmosphere and of critical processes taking place in under the following headings :

it.

ii) To provide initial and verifying conditions Level I data : Instrument readings converted

for modelling experiments designed to extend the to standard physical units and

range of operational weather prediction towards its referred to earth co-ordinates.

7-4 7.1 Introduction

Level II data : a) Data collected through the summary of data collected during the year. Volume

Global Tele-communication VI reports on the FGGE Data Management.

System within operational Volumes VII, VIII and X summarize the operations

cut-off time. (10-24 hrs after of the regional experiments of FGGE. Volume IX

observation time). gives preliminary research results prepared by the

b) Same as (a) except for a scientists who participated in the field operations of

delayed cut-off time. summer MONEX. Volume XI summarizes the

c) Data for climatic oceanographic operations undertaken in support of

investigation collected in a FGGE.

delayed mode. FGGE Research Results :

Level III data : Internally consistent data sets A few special seminars were held soon after

obtained from Level II data by the end of the FGGE year in November 1979. The

applying four-dimensional first preliminary assessment was done in Melbourne

assimilation techniques. (Australia) in December 1979; the second session

was held in Budapest (Hungary) in June 1980; the

Level III-a data : Obtained from Level II-a data.

third in Bergen (Norway) in July 1980; the fourth at

Level III-b data : Obtained from Level II-b data.

Tallahassee (Florida, USA) in January 1981; and

The main FGGE III-b data sets were

the fifth at Denpasar (Bali, Indonesia) in October

produced by the two institutions: European Centre

1981. Condensed papers and panel discussions

for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

giving the preliminary scientific results emerging

and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

from the FGGE data were circulated for the benefit

(GFDL). Both these data sets are complete and

of scientists. Subsequently, many research papers

cover the whole FGGE year. In addition, partial

based on FGGE data analyses have appeared in the

FGGE III-b data sets have also been produced by

leading scientific journals of the world.

some other institutions. In USA, four such

Conventional methods of forecasting :

institutions were: Goddard Laboratory for

A tropical forecasting office prepares charts

Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS), National

for fixed standard hours of observation, 3 to 6 times

Meteorological Centre (NMC), Florida State

a day. Surface observations are available on

University (FSU), and Naval Environmental

one-hourly basis only from a few observatories; on

Prediction Research Facility (NEPRF).

three-hourly, six-hourly and twelve-hourly basis

The four-dimensional assimilation

from a progressively larger number of stations.

techniques are in general highly complex and vary

Upper wind and radiosonde data are available on six

from one institution to another. Daley et al. (1985)

ho ur ly basis from a few stations and on

presented a set of very useful tables summarising

twelve-hourly basis from a larger number of

the parameters and processes of four - dimensional

stations.

assimilation models used by each of the six Centres

A forecasting office prepares sea-level

mentioned above. The tables allow a reader to get

charts and upper air charts for standard isobaric

not only a good comparison but also a useful listing

levels 850, 700, 500, 300, 200, 150 and 100 mb

of some of the accepted techniques used at different

(hPa). Some offices plot additional charts like

Centres. Tables 7.1 (1 to 4) taken from Daley et al.

24 -h ou r p re ssur e- ch an ge ch ar ts, pressure

(1985) are presented for the same purpose.

departu re -f ro m- no rm al c ha rts, maximum/

FGGE Reports :

minimum temperatures along with their 24-hour

Summary of operations during the FGGE

year was issued by WMO/ICSU in a series of eleven changes and departures from normal, T − φ grams

volumes. Volumes I and II summarize the are plotted in respect of limited number of stations.

operations on a system-by-system basis like To detect easterly waves, forecasting offices also

Satellite System, surface, upper air network, plot vertical-time section charts and x - t strips of

tro pical wind o bserving ships, aircraft, satellite pictures. Whenever a tropical storm is

dropwind-sonde system, tropical constant-level detected within the area of responsibility of a

balloon system, drifting buoy system and aircraft forecasting office, its past track is continuously

flight level data system. Volumes III, IV and V give updated.

7.1 Introduction 7-5

TABLE 7.1(1) :Assimilating model−basic information. (Daley et al., 1985; Asnani, 1993).

Institution Horizontal Vertical Time Model Topography Horizontal

a

discretization discretization discretization Variables dissipation

ECMWFb Second order Sigma Semi-implicit T, u, v, ps Moderately k ∇4

Arakawa C 15 levels ∆ t = 15 min. q smoothed

k = 9 × 1015m4s− 1

grid 0.996-0.025 filter = 0.05

1.875o

GFDL Spectral Sigma Semi-implicit T, ζ, D, Spectrally k ∇2

R30 18 levels 8 min. truncated

ps, q k = 4.96 × 104m2s− 1

00.998-0.0022 ≤ ∆ t ≤ 25 min

GLAS Fourth order Sigma Matsuno T, u, v, ps Smoothed 16th order

4o × 5o 9 levels ∆ t = 10 min. q with 8th digital filter

0.945-0.065 order digital (Shapiro)

filter

NMC Spectral Sigma Semi-implicit T, ζ, D, Spectrally k ∇4

R30 12 layers ∆ t = 17 min. truncated

q, ps k = 6 × 1015m4s− 1

with midpoints filter = 0.04 R30

0.962-0.021

FSU Not applicable

NEPRF Spectral Sigma Semi-implicit T, ζ, D, ps, q Envelope Nonlinear

T40 and 12 levels ∆ t = 10 min. − orography Smagorinsky

fourth order 1.0-0.1 T, u, v, ps, q

2.4o × 3o

a

T = temperature; ζ = vorticity; D = divergence; ps = surface pressure, q = mixing ratio; and u, v = wind components. b At 10, 20,

30 mb the first guess was climatology from 1 December 78 to 10 January 79. Thereafter, persistent wind shear and thickness were

added to model’s 50 mb ( Φ , v ) to obtain first guess.

TABLE 7.1(2) : Assimilating model−physical parameterization. (Daley et al., 1985; Asnani, 1993)).

layer surface surface parameterization dissipation

flux temperature temperature

ECMWF Monin- Specified Predicted Kuo Fully Mixing

Obukhov from land scheme interactive length

climatology surface clouds, no function of

temperature diurnal cycle Ria

GFDL Monin- Specified Surface heat Moist Climatological Mixing

Obukhov from balance, convective clouds, length

climatology diurnal cycle adjustment diurnal cycle

GLAS Bulk Specified Arakawa Fully Very weak

aerodynamic from Surface heat scheme interactive linear

climatology balance, clouds, diffusion

diurnal cycle diurnal cycle

NMC Bulk Specified No land Kuo None None

aerodynamic from surface heat scheme

climatology or moisture

flux

FSU Not applicable

NEPRF Bulk Analyzed Surface heat Arakawa Fully Linear

aerodynamic balance scheme interactive diffusion

clouds,

diurnal cycle

a

Richardson number.

Isobars are drawn for sea level charts and patterns and the weather patterns in the tropics are

streamline-isotach analysis is done for the wind essentially seasonal with well-marked diurnal

data. Geopotential height contours are also drawn oscillations. A forecaster has got to be quite familiar

for various constant pressure charts. The flow with the synoptic climatology of the region of his

7-6 7.1 Introduction

technique system dynamic data iterations

horizontal + constraints insertion at each

vertical on analysis insertion

a

increments

ECMWF 3-dimensional Local Non-divergence, Discrete 6 hours

multivariate pressure geostrophy in 1 (corrected

OIb of OMFDc extratropics for off time)

GFDL Horizontal and Local None Continuous 2 hours

vertical pressure

1

univariate

OI of OMFD

GLAS Horizontal Local Geostrophic Discrete 6 hours

univariate pressure correction of

SCMd of OMFD first guess 3

wind field in

extratropics

NMC 3-dimensional Local Non-divergence, Discrete 6 hours

multivariate pressure geostrophy in 1

OI of OMFD extratropics

FSU Local None Discrete 6 hours

e pressure 1 (corrected

for off time)

NEPRF 3-dimensional Local Non-divergence, Discrete 6 hours

multivariate pressure geostrophy in 1

OI of OMFD extratropics

a

Analysis minus forecast differences. bOptimal interpolation. cObservation minus forecast differences. dSuccessive correction

method. eFirst guess obtained from ECMWF IIIb analyses and univariate SCM used on MONEX observations minus first guess.

In terms of changes of weather from one day gets enough experience and confidence to be able to

to another day, a forecaster does not generally find forecast large-scale variations in weather likely to

outstanding changes in the pressure or wind flow occur during the next 24 to 36 hours.

patterns, except when there are well-marked He can also issue a general outlook of

organised systems like depressions, storms or weather changes expected during the next 3 to 6

cyclones. When there are such well-marked days. For this purpose, he has to watch and infer the

pressure-wind systems, the task of a forecaster is changes in position and intensity of semi-permanent

relatively easy; he goes by the knowledge gained centres of influence during the next few days. The

from past synoptic climatology of the region. The centres of influence are :

difficulty of the forecaster arises when the 24-hour i) ITCZ or near-equatorial trough.

changes are very small in the pressure-wind system, ii) Other seasonal troughs and ridges in the

but these are accompanied by large changes in the lower, middle and upper troposphere.

realised weather. For example, the rainfall may iii) Migratory middle-latitude cyclone waves

increase from 1⁄2 cm to 5 cm in 24 hours, but there of the two hemispheres.

may be no easily detectable large change in the The changes in these systems are generally

pressure-wind pattern. slow. Simple extrapolation in time along with the

The present network of observatories can knowledge of synoptic climatology of the region

catch only synoptic-scale (wavelength ∼ 4,000 km), can give fairly good idea of the changes likely to

and larger systems. In the tropical region, a occur in the near future.

fo recaster wh o is f amiliar with synoptic The advantage of this system of forecasting

climatology of his region, and who analyses the is that a good and keen analyst can soon become a

charts carefully and notes down the slow and small good forecaster for short-range (1 to 2 days) and

7.1 Introduction 7-7

Institution Functional Horizontal Vertical Maximum Interpolation Miscellaneous

dependence dimensions of dimension number of of analysis

of analysis local of "bin" observations back to model

weightsa analysis per "bin" + coordinates

"bin"b max. search

radius

ECMWF ABCD 660 × 660 km Whole column 192 obs Interpolation Analysis

unless more ≈ 2000 km of analysis increments in

than 192 values (full each "bin"

observations field) are averaged

to produce

global analysis

GFDL ABC 1 gridpoint Distance 8 obs Interpolation of No insertion

between 3 250 km analysis above σ = 0.052

consecutive increments

pressure

levels

GLAS AB 1 gridpoint Adjacent no limit Interpolation of Search radius

pressure 800 km analysis is data - density

levels increments dependent

NMC ABCD 1 gridpoint 4 mandatory 20 obs Interpolation No data

pressure levels 1500 km of analysis inserted in top

above and below increments σ layer

analysis level (midpoint = σ

0.021)

FSU AB 1 gridpoint Procedure is > 100 obs Not

strictly 2 grid applicable

horizontal intervals

unless more 900 km analysis

than 200 increments

observations

a

A = assumed data quality; B = distance between observation point and analysis point; C = distance to adjacent

observations and their quality; and D = assumed accuracy of forecast. bThe local three-dimensional volume in which

the analysis is performed.

medium-range (∼1 week ) perio ds. The purely objective mathematical basis, they have been

disadvantage of this system is that it becomes an able to simulate seasonal features of several weather

"art" rather than the "science" of weather systems in the tropics. They have been able to

forecasting. The forecaster himself cannot explain un-cover the dynamical processes underlying these

the basis of his forecasting the future position and weather systems which knowledge was otherwise

intensity of the centres of influence. When he goes extremely difficult or impossible to achieve by

wrong, he cannot say why his prediction went following the conventional methods of forecasting.

wrong and how he can avoid such errors in future. The success of numerical weather prediction

Those who advocate dynamical methods of models in the middle latitudes and successful

forecasting can, and do sometimes, ridicule this art simulation of several weather situations in the

of conventional forecasting. But the fact is that the tropics has created a general hope that in not too

advocates of dynamical methods of forecasting distant future, the numerical weather prediction

have yet to achieve a degree of success better than methods will become operational in the tropics as

that of conventional forecasting in the tropics. A well.

point in favour of dynamical forecasters is that on a

7-8 7.1 Introduction

Numerical weather prediction in the tropics : value ∆x , the time step ∆t becomes smaller and

We cannot use quasi-geostrophic (Q.G.) smaller for fast-moving waves. These fast-moving

model in the neighbourhood of the equator. We waves reduce the speed of time-integration of the

have to use primitive equation (P.E.) model in the mo del. Since their contribution to the

tropics, particularly when we are operating within synoptic-scale weather processes is very small,

5o of latitude from the equator. these are regarded as ‘noise’ for numerical weather

The difficulties of dealing with P.E. model prediction purposes.

are now well-known. After vertically-moving This noise can be completely eliminated by

acoustic waves have been eliminated through the use of quasi-geostrophic approximation but that

use of quasi-static approximation, there remain the will be like paying a very high price because

following waves : geostrophic approximation cannot be made in the

i) Horizontally-moving acoustic waves or neighbourhood of the equator. Hence we strike a

Lamb waves, with period of the order of a few compromise by allowing the Lamb waves and the

minutes to a few hours. gravity waves to remain in the model equations, but

ii) Gravity waves with period of the order of a by suitable choice of numerical scheme for

few minutes to a few hours. time-integration, we achieve selective damping of

iii) Inertio-gravity waves with period of the the fast-moving waves. There are numerical

order of half a day. schemes in which the faster-moving gravity waves

iv) Rossby waves with period of the order of a suffer greater damping than the slow-moving

few days or more. waves. The analysis of these schemes has been

The speed of the propagation of the Lamb presented by Kurihara (1965), Richtmyer and

waves and the short-period gravity waves is of the Morton (1967), Kreiss and Oliger (1973) and

order of 100 ms−1; Rossby waves move with a Haltiner and Williams (1980). Properties of some of

speed of the order of 10 ms−1; the speed of the commonly used schemes are shown in Table

inertio-gravity waves is intermediate between 7.1(5).

10 ms−1 and 100 ms−1. In P.E. models, we require reasonably

The pressure amplitude of the short-period accurate representation of both the pressure

acoustic waves is generally less than 1 mb (hPa), field and the wind field at the initial time t = 0.

increases as we go towards longer-period waves and

This initialization of the field is a major

becomes of the order of 5 mb (hPa) and more for

problem in the integration of a P.E. model.

pure Rossby waves in the tropics.

Initial imbalances can lead to the generation of

Rossby waves are of direct importance to

severe shock waves which can entail considerable

meteorology. All synoptic-scale weather systems

waste of forecasting time. We shall deal further with

belong to the class of Rossby wave motion. The

this problem under the sub-heading "Initialization".

fast-moving small-amplitude waves produce little

Even before tackling this initialization, it must be

or no perceptible weather phenomena or they

recognised that the amount of data which pours into

produce sub-synoptic-scale perturbations in the

the forecasting office and is to be used for the NWP

atmosphere. At any time, the energy content of

model is so large that it becomes practically

atmosphere in these very small waves is negligible.

impossible to analyse various charts manually and

However, their presence in the model equations of

thence to pick up grid-point values of the variables

the atmosphere creates a barrier in the time

manually. To be in line with the whole philosophy

integration of the model. For example C.F.L.

and concept of computer forecasting, the analysis

(Courant-Freidrich-Levy) condition for

of the weather charts has to be done through

c't

computational stability is that 1 where a computer. This subject will be further dealt

'x with under the heading "Objective Analysis".

c is the wave speed, ∆t is the length of time step

and ∆x is the space step or grid distance between To make maximum use of all available

two neighbouring points in the numerical information, particularly the one coming through

integration of the model equations. For a given the satellites, one has to find a way of feeding

7.1 Introduction 7-9

TABLE 7.1(5) : Properties of some commonly used numerical schemes (Kurihara, 1965; Asnani, 1993).

N u m b e r Computation- physical Mode Computa-

of Time tional Mode

Method Difference Equation Levels al Stability Amplitude Phase Amplitude

Implicit :

(A)backward h r+1 −h r= ∆ t F r+1 2 Absolutely High selective Retardation None

stable damping

(B)trapezoidal h r + 1 − h r = ∆ t (F r + 1 + F r) ⁄ 2 2 Absolutely No change Little None

stable retardation

(C)partly h r+1 −h r 2 Unstable for None

∆ t r +1 meteorological

r

=∆tF + (F 2 + F r2 )

1 wave and one

2

gravity wave

(D)partly h r+1 −h r−1 3 (very weak) Damping of Damping

unstable for gravity wave

= 2 ∆ t F r1 + 2 ∆ t F r2 + 1

meteorological & weak

wave amplifying of

meteorologic

al wave

Explicit :

(0)forward h r+1 − h r = ∆ t F r 2 Unstable None

(1) leapfrog h r + 1 − h r − 1 = 2 ∆ t F r 3 Conditionally No change Moderate No change

(centered) stable (b < 1) acceleration

Iterative :

(2)Euler h∗− hr= ∆tFr 2 Conditionally Moderately Large None

backward stable (b < 1) selective acceleration

h r+1 − h r = ∆t F ∗

damping

(3)modified ∗ ∆t r Conditionally Highly Moderate None

h −hr= F

Euler-back- 2 stable (b < √

⎯⎯2 ) selective acceleration

2

ward h −h =∆tF∗

∗∗ r damping

r+1 r ∗∗

h −h = ∆tF

(4)leapfrog-tr h − h r−1 = 2 ∆ t F r

∗ Conditionally Little Little error Very

apezoidal ∆t 3 stable (b < √

⎯⎯2 ) damping effective

h r+1 − hr = (F ∗ + F r ) damping (in

2

particular of

meteorologica

l wave)

(5)leapfrog-b h ∗ − h r−1 = 2 ∆ t F r Conditionally Moderately Moderate Damping

ackward r+1 r ∗ 3 stable (b < 0.8) selective acceleration

h − h = ∆tF

damping

2π

F1 ≡ non-linear terms ; F2 ≡ linear terms ; F ≡ F1 + F2 ;µ ≡ , where L ≡ wavelength in x-direction; b ≡ µ c ∆ t .

L

belong to the synoptic hour of other observations) Conceptually, the system of meteorological

while the time integration by the computer is in equations is closed; i.e. given inital distribution of

progress. This problem is somewhat analogous to atmospheric parameters like wind, pressure, density

the problem of initialization. We have to feed the and temperature in the whole atmosphere and given

new information into the computer model without the boundary conditions for these parameters for the

creating serious problem of misfit of information whole period of time-integration, it should be

and consequent generation of shock waves. This possible to forecast the future values of these

question will be further dealt with under the heading meteo ro log ica l p ar am eters in the whole

"4-dimensional data assimilation". The usual atmosphere. There is, however, an implied

3-dimensional space is now connected to the fourth co nd ition that we ar e able to represent

7-10 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

mathematically the distribution process for heat 14 days. To achieve worthwhile prediction upto 7

energy, momentum and moisture inside the to 14 days by conventional NWP methods with P.E.

atmosphere. The atmosphere receives almost its models was the immediate objective of the

entire heat energy (sensible heat + latent heat) international meteorological programme FGGE.

through the lower boundary. Proper mathematical

representation of these lower boundary processes 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

and also of internal diffusion and reflection is

essential. This subject will be further treated Necessity :

under the title of "Parameterization of Before we fire a projectile, we must ensure

physical processes". that the firing machine is at proper location and the

Even after the successful handling of the projectile has proper orientation in the horizontal as

problems of objective analysis, initialization, well as in the vertical. Similarly, for correct

4-dimensional assimilation and parameterization of scientific forecasting, the initial meteorological

physical processes, we have to appreciate that there field parameters should have not only reasonably

is still a limit to the length of time for which correct instantaneous values at grid points but

prediction is possible with the help of P.E. models. also correct space gradients computable from the

This limit arises out of two causes. Firstly, whatever available grid-point values.

be the accuracy of observations and analysis, the Model-consistent Initialization :

assignment of a grid point value of a physical The initial values of meteorological

parameter in terms of a limited-digit number parameters at grid points and their space gradients

implies generation of an error which is the must be consistent with the forecasting model. For

difference between the actual and the adopted value instance, the forecasting model is designed to catch

of the meteorological parameter at a grid-point. low-frequency Rossby modes and to suppress the

Secondly, there are errors of observation and high-frequency gravity modes. Hence, the initial

analysis. The error field so generated is subjected to data should have, as far as possible, not only the

the same set of model equations as the true amplitudes of gravity modes equal to zero but also

error-free physical field. If there is an element of their time-tendencies equal to zero. This

dynamical instability in the physically real field, a requirement should be fulfilled not only in respect

small error perturbation in the physical field will of wind field but also in respect of all the physical

also grow exponentially with time. This growing parameters of the model, like pressure, temperature,

perturbation will also interact, in a non-linear water vapour, diabatic heating, frictional

manner with the basic physical field. While this is dissipation, and precipitation.

as it should be in the case of physical field, we Different forecasting models have different

simultaneously also have the error-field growing requirements of model- consistent initialization.

exponentially with time. These errors, however Progress made in the Field of Initialization :

small initially, grow to substantial size in course of The forecasting model of L.F. Richardson

time, interact with and contaminate the physical (1922) retained both gravity modes and Rossby

field solution. The physical mode and the error modes. The forecasting model of Charney (1947)

mode get mixed up to such an extent that it becomes removed the gravity modes through

impossible to separate the two. Consequently, the quasi-geostrophic approximation. The first NWP

physical field emerging in the real atmosphere loses model using electronic computers in late 1940s and

its resemblance with the pattern evolving from the early 1950s initialized the grid-point data consistent

computation. Even if there be superficial with the quasi-geostrophic forecasting model, or at

resemblance, it is of little value for purposes of most Linear Balance forecasting model. The

scientific weather prediction. This leads us to the operational forecasting was then confined to

problem of limit of predictability of the extra-tropical regions; the weather processes in

atmosphere by the conventional numerical weather tropical regions were considered to be only of

prediction methods. The current estimates suggest marginal importance for the weather in the

that the conventional techniques of NWP can give extra-tropics. Gradually, two complementary

us meaningful weather predictions up to about 7 to perspectives emerged :

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-11

a) The weather phenomena in the tropics ii) Relatively low priority to meteorology due

are of more than marginal importance for to many demands on limited economic resources.

weather forecasting in the extra-tropics. For In order to catch a system reasonably well,

medium and long-range forecasting in the we should have at least 10 to 12 grid point

extra-tropics, weather phenomena occurring in the observations inside the system. Let us have

tropics are of sufficient importance to merit more some estimate of the horizontal and vertical

attention. dimensions of the meteorological systems which we

b) We could embark on operational weather must catch in our grid system designed for

forecasting in the tropics, with NWP models. synoptic-scale forecasting.

This type of perspective has encouraged

greater scientific interest and effort in the field of System Horizontal Vertical

initialization for P.E. models in the tropics. dimensions dimensions

(km) (km)

During initialization, attention has to be

Monsoon depressions and

given to all the meteorological parameters which tropical oceanic depressions

2,000 9

occur in a forecasting model. Easterly waves in general 2,000 9

Th e f irst efforts in forecasting and African easterly waves 2,000 6

initialization were confined to dry adiabatic models. Quasi-stationary planetary

15,000 15

Subsequently, moisture and diabatic heating have waves

been incorporated in almost all operational Upper tropospheric waves 10,000 -

5 - 15

40,000

forecasting models. In a few specialised models,

there is also provision for CO2, O3, other common These systems can be caught reasonably

chemical constituents of the atmosphere and even well if our horizontal grid length is of the order of

for pollutant aerosols. 2 degrees latitude and longitude. Tropical cyclones

All initialization techniques imply some sort need special small grid lengths because their

of smoothing which was first done through static important structural features like eye and cloud wall

initialization, th en through dynamic have horizontal dimensions of the order of 10 km.

initialization and more recently through more Vertical resolution needs special consideration.

sophisticated techniques like fitting of standard Those systems which are actively fed by the tropical

functions in the horizontal as well as in the PBL must have a fine resolution in the PBL and

relatively coarse resolution upstairs. In general,

vertical. In the horizontal , the smoothing is done

10-level resolution in the vertical is desirable.

by fitting what are called "normal modes". These

It will be very long before we can achieve a

use Fourier functions in x -direction and Legendre

net-work of radiosonde/rawin observatories which

polynomials or Hough functions in y-direction.

would enable us to assign grid-point values, with

Vertical smoothing is done through use of

confidence, for 2o latitude/longitude grid system

"equivalent depths" corresponding to the

and at about 10 levels in the vertical.

horizontal normal modes.

Accuracy of observations :

Considerable progress has been made,

In the atmosphere, there is a mixture of a

during recent years, in normal-mode initialization

great variety of scales of motion and temperature,

of pressure field and horizontal wind field.

ranging from a few millimetres to several thousand

However, corresponding initialization of other

kilometres. These scales exist throughout the

meteorological fields like moisture, clouds,

atmosphere and are not confined to any particular

precipitation rate, diabatic heating, etc. are still in

region in tropics and extra-tropics. Even if our

active research and experimental stages. It is a

observational techniques were perfect to 100%

"frontier" research problem.

acccuracy, which accuracy shall never be attained,

Inadequacy of observational network :

the measurement includes the influence of all those

Tropics are known for inadequacy of

scales of motion which are always present in our

observations. This peculiarity of the tropics is

atmosphere. It is not possible and even worthwhile

essentially due to two reasons:

to deal with this totality of scales at one and the

i) Vast oceanic area where it is very costly to

same time. It is, therefore, essential to sift out, from

organise regular systematic observations.

7-12 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

that component or those components in which we iv) Final Check of analysis before the

are interested at a particular instant. grid-point values are fed into the computer for

For the time being, we are interested in model integration.

synoptic-scale analysis of systems whose Each NWP analysis centre has its own

wavelength is of the order of 2000 km or more. problems and techniques of tackling points (i), (iii)

Hence, for our purpose, atmospheric phenomena and (iv). We shall concern ourselves here mainly

with wavelengths of 200 km or less are just with (ii) in some detail. We shall assume that a

atmospheric noise which we would like to filter out, reasonable set of observations is available at

by suitable techniques, from our observations, even observation points in a reasonably dense network

if these were ideal and correct. and our problem is to interpolate at grid points.

In our real observations, there is "noise" For tropical regions, we need to analyse at

co ming not only from these small-scale least the following three elements :

atmospheric systems but also from "errors" of i) Pressure field, also referred to as mass field

observation. These errors of observation arise from or contour field.

three sources : ii) Wind field.

i) Instrumental errors. iii) Moisture field.

ii) Computational errors, for example The following four methods are useful for

computation of wind speed and direction from objective analysis in the tropics :

observed positions of a balloon. i) Successive Correction Method.

iii) Rounding-off errors, for example retention ii)Variations of Successive Correction

of a small number of decimal places. Method using non-isotropic weighting functions.

At present, the random errors in various iii) Optimum interpolation of a single variable

measurements are estimated to be of the order (mass, wind, moisture).

shown below in Table 7.2(1). Continuous efforts iv) Multi-variate optimum interpolation for

are in progress to reduce these errors which arise mass and wind fields jointly.

from a combination of small-scale phenomena and Successive Correction Method :

from errors of observations. It is an iterative process designed by

7.2.1 Objective Analysis of a Chart and Bergthorssen and Doos (1955) with some

interpolation at Grid-points : modifications by Cressman (1959). It can be

For NWP work, we need machine methods represented by

of analysis (Objective Analysis). The method of N

analysis has to be programmed so as to require 1

either no human intervention at all or a minimal

ψ n+1 n

g =ψg+ N ∑wi ( ψ oi − ψ ni ) 7.2(1)

machine-man mix. So far as speed is concerned, i=1

machine will generally come out to be faster than where ψ is a scalar parameter for which values are

man. It is also possible to programme "experience" required at grid-points by objective analysis. The

of meteorologists for computer analysis, although,

subscript g indicates grid-point while the subscript

in general, it is difficult to get it from experienced

i indicates observation point.

meteorologists, in a form suitable for simple

computer programming. ψ ng = Value of ψ at grid-point during scan

Objective Analysis consists of four stages : number n .

i) Quality Control of raw data received from ψ n+1

g = Value of ψ at grid-point during scan

an observation point, rejecting or modifying the raw number n + 1.

data.

ψ ni = Value of ψ at observation point i

ii) Method of interpolation to assign values at

grid points. interpolated from grid point values during scan

iii) Supply of "artificial" data (sometimes number n.

called ‘bogus’ data, although this adjective sounds ψ oi = Observed value of ψ at observation

too harsh) at grid points in a region where data are point i.

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-13

(Source : GARP Pub. Ser. No. 20, 1978 and Bengtsson, 1975; Asnani, 1993).

Element Error

i) Surface pressure ± 0.2 mb (hPa)

ii) Surface temperature ± 1oC

iii) Surface wind speed ± 1 ms −1

iv) Surface relative humidity ± 5%

v) Radio-sonde temperature ± 1oC

vi) Radio- sonde relative humidity ± 5%

vii) Rawin wind speed ± 1 ms −1

viii)Commercial aircraft wind speed

a) With inertial navigational system ± 2 ms −1

b) Without inertial navigational system ± 4 ms −1

x) Satellite temperature soundings

a) 1000 - 800 mb (hPa) ± 2.5 oC

b) 800 - 300 mb (hPa) ± 2o C

c) 300 - 100 mb (hPa) ± 2.5 oC

d) < 100 mb (hPa)

± 2o C

xi) Satellite - measured relative humidity 20 to 30%

xii)Satellite - measured winds

a) 900 mb (hPa) wind speed ± 3 ms −1

b) 500 mb (hPa) wind speed ± 4 ms −1

c) 250 mb (hPa) wind speed ± 4 ms −1

xiii)Constant level balloons at 200 mb (hPa)

a) Temperature ± 0.5 oC

b) Wind speed ± 1.5 ms − 1

xiv)Drop-sondes from carrier balloons

a) Temperature ± 1oC

b) Wind speed ± 2 ms − 1

the distance of the observation point from the stations which are close together and which are

grid-point. The form of wi changes in each scan providing nearly the same information, get

such that observations farther from the grid-point separately the same weightage which an isolated

receive decreased weightage in successive scans. observation gets in a different direction but at an

N = number of observations used in the equal distance from the grid-point. There can be too

scan. much weightage to a cluster of observations in one

Several scans are made through the data, the and the same area. Another disadvantage is isotropy

interpolations from the last scan being used to get i.e. equal weightage in all directions, east-west as

improved values during the next scan. In the first well as north-south. This will be elaborated in the

scan, a first-guess value is used at the grid-point. next section.

Forecasted value or any other reasonable value Variations of Successive Correction Method

could serve as a first-guess. This scheme has the using non-isotropic Weighting Functions :

following advantages : In the Successive Correction Method

i) Programming is simple. outlined in the previous section, the weighting

ii) Convergence is fast. function wi was isotropic; it depended only on the

iii) All the observations within a specified distance of an observation point from a grid-point

distance from the grid-point can be used to get the but not on its direction. In general, zonal wind

value at the grid-point. component is stronger than meridional component.

7-14 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

Also, gradients of meteorological parameters are iv) The interpolation may be made in the

generally stronger in north- south direction than in vertical as well as in the horizontal. This provides

east-west direction. greater consistency in multi-level objective

To take account of these directional analysis.

variations, the weighting function wi is made a Disadvantages :

function of not only the distance of an observation i) It needs much more computing time than

point from a grid-point, but also of the direction of the Successive Correction Method. It involves

its orientation relative to the grid-point, and even inversion of an N × N matrix at each grid point,

the direction of the wind. The weighting functions where N is the number of observations used.

are made non-isotropic. ii) There may be ill-conditioning problems in

Optimum interpolation of a single variable : inverting the matrix.

It can be represented by iii) A large number of statistics need to be

N calculated.

1

A F

ψg = ψg +

N ∑wi ( ψoi − ψFi ) 7.2(2) Multi-variate Optimum Interpolation :

In this scheme, mass and wind fields may be

i=1

analysed simultaneously giving better consistency

where between the two interpolated fields. Vertical

ψ Ag = Analysed value of ψ at grid-point. interpolation is carried out first, at all observation

points, interpolating height and wind separately.

ψ Fg = First-guess value of ψ at grid-point. Then the horizontal interpolation is carried out.

ψ Fi = First-guess value of ψ at observation Equations for horizontal interpolation may be

point i. written in the form

ψ oi = Observed value of ψ at observation ⎛ZAg ⎞ ⎛ZFg ⎞ N ⎛Z0i − ZFi ⎞

⎜ A⎟ ⎜ F⎟ 1 ⎜ 0 F⎟

point i, obtained by interpolation from grid-point ⎜ug ⎟ = ⎜ug ⎟ + N ∑ Ai ⎜ui − ui ⎟ 7.2(3)

values. ⎜vA ⎟ ⎜vF ⎟ i=1 ⎜v0 − vF ⎟

N = Number of observations used in the ⎝ g⎠ ⎝ g⎠ ⎝ i i ⎠

The weighting function wi is obtained by determined by simultaneously minimising the

minimising the error square E given by expressions

___________ ___________ __________ __________

E = ( ψAg − ψg )2 ( ZAg − Zg )2 , ( uAg − ug )2 , ( vAg − vg )2,

where ψg is the true value at the grid-point and the Z is the height of constant pressure surface and u , v

bar indicates averaging over many past occasions; are the wind components. Other symbols have the

it involves statistical analysis of past observations same meanings as in the previous section.

in th e regio n. The f or mu latio n inv olves While the basic principles of optimum

co-variances between errors in the first guess field, interpolation remain the same, several variations are

observational errors and cross-covariance between being co ntin ually in troduced at different

them. operational meteorological centres (e.g. Dey and

Some of the advantages and disadvantages Morone, 1985).

of this scheme of interpolation (GARP Publ. series, 7.2.2 Initialization for a P.E. Model :

1978) are given below: In the tropics, for synoptic-scale systems, we

Advantages : are concerned essentially with a P.E. model. Even

i) It allows for varying distribution of after objective analysis, we need to bring the

observations around the grid point. individual grid-point data into some sort of balance

ii) It allows for different levels of error in with data at other neighbouring grid-points.

different types of observation. Experience and theory have shown that if this

iii) An estimate of the interpolation error at balance is not provided initially, the computations

each grid point is provided by this scheme. will lead to the development of ‘noise’ which may

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-15

become uncontrollable at later stages. Theory meteo ro logical noise does not grow to

shows that this noise comes from poorly-resolved unmanageable intensity. Subsequent analysis has

high-frequency waves. It is difficult to handle these also revealed th at th ese methods of

high-frequency waves in an NWP model. They Nor mal-Mo de initialization and

obstruct the correct prediction of the more Bounded-Derivative method lead to a balance

important Rossby waves through non-linear between pressure and wind fields which is not

interactions. The problem is not so serious in significantly different from the balance obtained

quasi-geostrophic models because fast-moving through truncated forms of vorticity and divergence

high-frequency gravity waves are not present in equations. However, in this section, these two

such models. methods will be given separately after a brief

The initial state may be regarded as description of "Dynamical Initialization

appropriate, if high-frequency oscillations are not Schemes".

present to any significant extent in the beginning, Non-divergent balanced flow Schemes :

and do not have a chance of fast development, soon Flow is represented by ψ field. Non-linear

after starting the time-integration. balance equation is :

During the sixties, this initialization was

done mostly with schemes which may be termed as ∂ψ ⎛ ∂ψ ∂ψ ⎞

∇2(gz) = fo ∇2 ψ + β + 2J⎜ , ⎟ 7.2(4)

"static initialization schemes". Some sort of balance ∂y ⎝ ∂x ∂y ⎠

was assumed between pressure and wind fields, the

This is also called reverse Balance equation.

wind field being mainly rotational part, with or

without some irrotational part. Geopotential is obtained from ψ-field. It becomes

In contrast, there have been subsequent linear Balance equation if the non-linear term

schemes, still in the process of development, which ⎛ ∂ψ ∂ψ ⎞

2J⎜ , ⎟ is omitted on the right-hand side of

allow interaction to take place between the ⎝ ∂x ∂y ⎠

first-guess initial field and the P.E. forecasting ∂ψ

model equations before the real-time integration the equation. If further, the term β is also

∂x

starts. The result of initialization process is model removed from the right-hand side, it becomes

- dependent. The initial state so obtained may not be geostrophic relationship with constant value of f . In

a very accurate reproduction of the actual state of literature, we come across experiments using either

the atmosphere but it is model-consistent. of the three balanced relationships between pressure

Static Initialization Schemes : and wind fields.

Broadly speaking, there are three types of Schemes with Limited Divergent Flow :

static initialization :

These schemes include non-divergent (ψ)

i) Non-divergent balanced flow.

component of flow as stated in the previous section.

ii) Non-divergent balanced flow plus limited

Additionally, they also include a limited component

divergent flow.

iii) Mass-wind balance by Variational of divergent flow (χ field). This comes from

Technique. ω-equation. We have quasi-geostrophic

Upto mid-1970s, the balanced flows were ω-equation corresponding to quasi-geostrophic

based on hierarchy of truncated models of vorticity model. We also have ω-equation corresponding

and divergence equations, more popular models to linear and non-linear balance models. Through

being known as non-linear balance model, either of these forms of diagnostic ω-equation,

linear-balance model and quasi-geostrophic model.

we get ω-field corresponding to a given (ψ,z)

These truncated models were energetically

consistent as per the analysis of Lorenz (1960). field. Now,

Sub seq uently , two d iff erent approaches, ∂ω

Normal-Mode initialization and Bounded =−∇2χ 7.2(5)

∂p

Derivative method, have been developed to

achieve the same purpose, i.e. to adjust the initial This enables us to determine χ-field. From this, we

pressure and wind data in such a way that unwanted get Vχ, the divergent component of flow.

7-16 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

Vχ = χ 7.2(6)

Necessity :

This procedure was first analysed by Phillips The necessity of an alternate to static initialization

(1960). schemes was appreciated after a few experiments

A slight variation of the above procedure is with the latter in tropical regions. These static

to utilise observed fields of temperature T , the initialization schemes suffer from the usual problem

horizontal motion V H and the surface pressure. The of pressure-wind adjustment in low latitudes.

Krishnamurti (1969) found that it takes roughly an

rotational and irrotational components of the wind

equivalent of 12 to 18 hours of integration before a

are obtained through ω- equation as before. From

realistic pressure-wind field emerges from statically

surface pressure and temperature in the vertical, one

initialized pressure-wind field. In an experiment by

builds up the z-field. Krishnamurti (1969) and Miyakoda et al. (1974), the first three days were

Kanamitsu (1975) experimented with these considered as initial adjustment period, during

methods. which time, two tropical storms weakened very

Mass-Wind Balance by Variational Technique : rapidly.

Similar balancing procedures were also tried

This technique was developed by Sasaki for the spherical rotating earth (Houghton and

(1970). It requires adjustment between mass and Washington, 1969) by assuming that the pressure

wind fields, using some diagnostic balanced field determines the wind field in extra-tropical

relatio nsh ip between the two, subject to latitudes and that the wind field determines the

minimization of an integral like pressure field in the tropics. The limited divergent

∼ ∼ component of the wind consistent with this

I = ∫∫ [ α ( V − V )2 + β ( z − z )2 balancing could also be obtained over the sphere.

However, this type of static initialization also

+ λ( relationship between z and V )2 ] dx dy resulted in unrealistic oscillations during the initial

7.2(7) stages of the integration with NCAR General

Circulation model.

The area integral is to be evaluated over the Similar large oscillations were also

entire horizontal field under consideration. Here experienced in integrations with a barotropic P.E.

V = finally adjusted velocity. model in spectral form and also with a baroclinic

∼ P.E. model in spectral form (Bourke, 1974).

V = velocity obtained from data analysis.

z = finally adjusted height. Experiences of this type have tended to turn

∼z = height obtained from data analysis. attention to dynamic initialization schemes. The

objective of dynamic initialization schemes is to

The constraint may be "strong" in which establish a dynamically adjusted pressure-wind

case it is satisfied completely and the minimization field as the initial condition for a P.E. model rather

is also with respect to λ. Alternately, the constraint than relying on its evolution from a crude initial

may be "weak" in which case the extent of its state during the course of integration and then

realization depends on the value of λ relative to ignoring the model forecast for the initial

α and β. The relative values of α and β determine "adjustment" period.

how much the final fields depend on the analysed Forward and Backward time-integration :

winds or heights, and may be determined from the Miyakoda and Moyer (1968) suggested an

interpolation errors given by an optimum initialization scheme in which a time-differencing

interpolation scheme. scheme, having a property of selective damping

The integral relationship may be extended to (faster damping for high-frequency waves) was

three dimensions and the constraint may be used to perform a cyclic forward-and-backward

specified in terms of thermal wind and temperature integration repeatedly under some constraint on the

(Lewis, 1972). velocity potential. An iterative procedure suggested

by Nitta and Hovermale (1969) also did selective

damp ing in cyclic f or war d-and-backward

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-17

integrations but without the constraint on the forward-backward integration with restorative

velocity potential. Results of experiments show that technique of Nitta and Hovermale (1969).

both these methods yield a synoptic-scale vertical The primary function of this second stage is

velocity field which is close to the solution of the to suppress possible noise due to slight

balanced model ω-equation. imbalances between the mass and wind fields

The shallow-water equations were treated by at the end of the first stage. It is also anticipated

Kiangi (1976) over Africa with equator roughly that the divergent wind field which is required for

through the centre of the region. He started with a maintaining a balance condition may evolve. The

given wind field and obtained the geopotential field boundary layer structure which was established at

via the reverse Balance equation. This result of the end of the first stage of initialization would

static initialization became the starting point for the remain practically unaffected by this second stage

dynamic initialization. He then resorted to of initialization. The scheme was tested on a simple

forward-and-backward integration for about 18 zonal flow and also on an isolated hurricane.

iterations of one hour each. At this stage, the Kurihara and Bender (1979) found out that the

individual disturbances became much more sharply dynamical initialization scheme of Kurihara and

defined. He used this initialization procedure in a Tuleya (1978) could very well work for simple

prediction model and showed that this iterative zonal flow and for isolated hurricane vortex but not

initialization produced a geopotential field which for the combination of the two. When a vortex was

was r ou gh ly 1 0 m etr es d iff erent, in the superimposed on a basic background flow, a large

root-mean-square sense, from the balanced acceleration of wind was observed in certain areas

geopotential field. of the flow field during the first-stage dynamic

Kurihara and Tuleya (1978) proposed a initialization of the boundary layer, which would

two-stage dynamic initialization scheme with tend not to assume a realistic quasi-equilibrium

emphasis on the dynamic adjustment in the state. This large acceleration was due to the

boundary layer. The method assumes that at the advection of the vortex by the basic background

analysis stage before dynamical initialization starts, current away from the pressure low which (mass

mass field is accurately known in the boundary field) was not allowed to change during this

layer and the rotational wind field is accurately initialization. It was realised that the boundary layer

known above the boundary layer. In the first stage, initialization need ed im pr ov em en t. This

the dynamical effect of surface friction is improvement is effected through an artificial

incorporated in the boundary layer where the mass forcing which is a function of wind speed at a point

field is fixed as given at the analysis stage. This is such that the forcing is reduced as the wind speed is

done by making a forward integration of the model decreased by the continuous action of the friction.

while anchoring the mass field everywhere in the Normal Mode Initialization :

boundary layer and the wind field at the top of the A relatively new approach to initialization

boundary layer. In the boundary layer with the was made through normal mode expansion of the

progress of time integration, the wind approaches a data. Normal modes are the solutions of dynamic

quasi-equilibrium state with friction included. The prediction model equations without any diabatic

boundary layer wind thus obtained yields frictional heating or friction. They represent free oscillations.

mass convergence and divergence which can cause When the dynamical prediction equations are

external gravity waves unless compensated for in linearised, then the normal modes are called

the free atmospheric layer. This compensation is "linear normal modes"; otherwise, the normal

artificially provided in the free atmospheric layer. modes are "non-linear normal modes". The

The second stage of dynamic initialization theory of normal modes in classical hydrodynamics

deals with the free atmosphere. Here rotational is described in Lamb’s Hydrodynamics (1932, 6th

wind is taken as given by the analysis before edition, Section 168). As explained by Lamb,

dynamic initialization starts. Given this wind field, normal modes are also connected to normal

a balanced mass field is computed by the simplified co-ordinates and co-efficients of stability (see §

reverse Balance equation. Now the second stage of 6.10, Chapter 6).

dynamic initialization starts. It involves cyclic The normal modes of a quasi-static P.E.

7-18 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

model correspond to gravity waves, Rossby waves, Kasahara (1977, 1978) outlined the procedure for

and waves which have mixed characteristics of both constructing Hough harmonics and using the same

gravity and Rossby waves. In general, gravity wave as basic functions in the solution of barotropic P.E.

modes have larger frequencies and smaller periods model equations on the earth-sphere.

while Rossby wave modes have smaller frequencies Dickinson and Williamson (1972) suggested

and longer periods. that one of the rational ways of filtering out

In p ractice, it has b een f ou nd that unwanted modes (meteorological noise) during the

knowledge of linear normal modes is essential time-integration of a P.E. model, is to expand the

for construction of non-linear normal modes. initial observed meteorological fields into series of

As such, normal modes of the linear prediction normal modes, and selectively to filter out the

equations form the basic modules for linear as well unwanted normal gravity-wave modes from the

as for non-linear normal mode initialization. initial data fields. These authors outlined a general

Barotropic non-divergent vorticity equation procedure for computation of normal modes in the

has been the first amongst the prediction equations case of a linearised P.E. model. They also illustrated

in the field of NWP. Spherical harmonics are the their general procedure for the actual calculation of

normal mode solutions of linearised barotropic the linear normal modes in the case of grid-point

no n- div er gent v or ticity eq uation on the representation of a two-layer model ocean on the

earth-sphere (Haurwitz, 1940; Craig, 1945; rotating earth sphere. They also announced that they

Neamtan, 1946). As such, spherical harmonics have were developing computer routines for expansion

been used as the basic functions for the spectral of the NCAR General Circulation Model (GCM)

model of the global linear vorticity equation data into normal modes.

(Silberman, 1954; Platzman, 1960; Baer and Williamson and Dickinson (1976) described

Platzman, 1961). Many research workers have their procedure for expanding grid-point data into

subsequently used spherical harmonics for the linear normal modes of the NCAR GCM. The

expressing single-level data in terms of spherical approach assumed small-amplitude perturbations

harmonics for linear prediction model using about a state of rest and involved separation of

barotropic non-divergent vorticity equation. variables to give vertical and latitudinal structure

While spherical harmonics are the normal equations for each longitudinal wave-number. As

mode solutions for the linearised barotropic an example of their procedure, they expanded the

non-divergent vorticity equation, they are not the GCM model simulation data for 30 days, into the

normal mode solutions for the linearised primitive normal modes. They showed that the computational

equation model over a sphere. We need a series of modes, regarded as noise arising from numerical

spherical harmonics to construct normal mode grid-point representation of continuous fields, have

solutions for linearised P.E. model, over a sphere. amplitudes at least an order of magnitude smaller

This is a very old problem connected with Laplace’s than the meteorologically important Rossby waves.

linearised tidal equation without external They also showed that except for Kelvin waves, the

tide-generating forces (see Lamb, 1932). Normal gravity wave modes are also not significantly larger

modes of Laplace’s linear tidal equation including than the computational modes.

the method of obtaining the same, their asymptotic Machenhauer (1977) pointed out that

behaviour and tables of their numerical values are putting the amplitudes of gravity wave modes equal

given by Margules (1893), Hough (1898), Dikii to zero at initial time t = 0 does not prevent the

(1965), Flattery (1967) and more completely by growth of gravity-wave modes during the course of

Longuett-Higgins (1968). In appreciation of the time-integration of a P.E. model; the gravity-wave

illustrious work done by Hough (1898), the modes do develop subsequently through non-linear

solutions corresponding to the normal modes of interactions among the initial Rossby-wave modes.

linearised global shallow-water equations are He suggested that some horizontal velocity

referred to as "Hough functions" or "Hough divergence and hence some vertical motion (which

harmonics". For non-linear global shallow-water are otherwise characteristic of gravity-wave modes

primitive equations, the normal modes are obtained ) should be retained initially at t = 0. Machenhauer

again as a series sum of Hough harmonics. (1977) also developed and described a procedure

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-19

which is called n on -lin ear n or mal-mode non-linear Balance equation which can be

initialization for a spectral model of shallow-water considered as an extension of the classical

equations on the spherical earth. This procedure 2-dimensional non-linear Balance equation

involved the use of a non-linear balance equation introduced by Charney (1955) for initialization of

and an iterative process to solve it. P.E. models.

Baer (1977) independently suggested the use In practice, normal mode initialization

of a m or e co mp lete n on -linear balanced (NMI) method has not been without difficulties

relationship. He tested it to a second order (Daley, 1981). There have been efforts to overcome

ap proximation for a mid-latitude, β-plane, these difficulties. Convergence problems associated

shallow-water model. The general theory of with Machenhauer’s iteration scheme have been

non-linear normal modes was further developed by reduced through the work of Kitade (1983) and

Baer and Tribbia (1977) and applied by Tribbia Rasch (1985). Tribbia (1984) proposed a new

(1979) to a simple equatorial model for which approach for obtaining higher-order corrections to

separation of gravitational modes is more difficult Machenhauer’s scheme. In this method, the

than it is for mid-latitude region. The shallow-water projection of the non-linear forcing on the

model of Machenhauer (1977) was extended by gravitational manifold is expanded in Taylor series

Daley (1979) to multi-level spectral forecasting around the initial time. This gave a generalised

models and by Temperton and Williamson (1979) iteration equation in which the first term

to multi-level grid-point models. corresponds to the then accepted standard,

Studies have been undertaken to identify non-linear, normal mode initialization by this

similarities and dis-similarities in this normal mode method; more refined initial balance between wind

initialization and th e earlier methods of and pressure fields can be obtained to any order by

initialization. For example, Wiin-Nielsen (1979) incorporating higher and higher-order terms in the

found great similarity in this normal mode expansion.

initialization method and the earlier static Normal mode initialization (NMI) is a

initialization method which combined balanced "frontier" research problem at the time of writing.

model flow having limited amount of divergence. The research is progressing in the following

He concluded that the balance between the pressure directions :

field and the wind field (divergent + non-divergent i) Development of implicit initialization

flow) is virtually identical to the quasi-geostrophic schemes which are equivalent to NMI schemes in

balance except on the largest scales. Even for these the final result but do not require explicit

largest scales, the difference came entirely from the knowledge of normal modes.

variation of coriolis parameter on the spherical ii) Development of schemes for limited area

earth. The Rossby-type normal modes would be forecasting.

identical to those coming from quasi-geostrophic iii) Development of schemes which are

balance theory if coriolis parameter is kept applicable to forecasting models which contain not

constant. Wiin-Nielsen obtained this result from only the usual three parameters (two wind

linearised shallow-water equations. components u and v and the heights of constant

Leith (1980) examined in depth, the role of pressure surfaces) but also friction and diabatic

successive iterations adopted in the non-linear heating.

normal-mode initialization procedures. He pointed iv) Incorporating vertical structure as a part of

out that application of these initialization NMI.

procedures, starting from a linearly balanced state, Temperton (1988) has given an implicit

induces the secondary circulations needed for a NMI scheme which can be implemented without

balance in non-linear balanced states; that the first explicitly knowing the normal modes of a

iteration in the usual non-linear normal mode shallow-water model.

initialization procedure for P.E. models is nearly This implicit scheme is applicable to

equivalent to quasi-geostrophic approximation; that limited-area models also. His presentation of the

subsequent iterations lead to higher order scheme is simple and clear. We shall present only

approximations including a 3-dimensional an outline of Temperton’s scheme as Appendix 7.2

7-20 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

(A & A′). Boundary conditions at the solid wall are that there

Appendix 7.2(A) is no cross-boundary flow; i.e.

Temperton’s (1988) Scheme ψ = 0 on Γ (A-7)

Model :

Barotropic (shallow-water) model in n ⋅ χ = 0 on Γ (A-8)

Cartesian coordinates on a polar stereographic

where n is the outward-pointing normal vector at

projection, with map scale factor m given by

the wall.

1 + sin θo The model Equations A-(1-3) can now be

m = written as

1 + sin θ

θo is the latitude where the map scale factor m is ∼

∂ζ ∼

= − f D + Qζ (A-9 )

unity, i.e. the standard latitude where the map ∂t

projection is true. If u and v are the components of

the wind vector along the axes of this coordinate ∼

∂D ∼

system, then the wind images U and V are given by = f ζ − ∇2φ + QD (A-10)

∂t

U=

u

, V=

v ∂φ ∼

m m = − m2 Φ D + Qφ (A-11)

∂t

The shallow-water equations are Here Qζ and QD contain the non-linear terms and

∂U ∂φ β-terms of the vorticity and divergence equations

=fV− + QU (A-1)

∂t ∂x respectively. Q φ contains the non-linear terms of the

∂V ∂φ continuity equation.

=−fU− + QV (A-2) Normal Modes :

∂t ∂y

Normal modes of the model are the solutions

∂φ ⎛ ∂U ∂V ⎞ of Eqs. A-(9-11) when we set

= − m2 Φ ⎜ + ⎟ + Qφ (A-3)

∂t Qζ = 0 = QD = Qφ ; i.e.

⎝ ∂x ∂y ⎠

φ is the geopotential height expressed as a ∼

∂ζ ∼

perturbation on the mean value Φ . The non-linear =−fD (A-12)

∂t

terms have been grouped together and put on the

right-hand side of Eqs. (A-1, 2, 3) as QU,QV,Qφ. ∼

∂D ∼

Setting of these non-linear terms equal to zero is = f ζ − ∇2 φ (A-13)

equivalent to linearising the equations about a state ∂t

of rest with constant geopotential height Φ. ∂φ ∼

= − m2 Φ D (A-14)

The model is bounded by a solid wall Γ in ∂t

the vicinity of the equator.

The horizontal wind is decomposed into Some important Properties of the Normal

rotational and irrotational components in terms of Modes:

the usual functions ψ and χ : f and m 2 are not constant in space. Hence,

Equations A-(12-14) are non-separable and the

∂ψ ∂χ ∂ψ ∂χ normal modes cannot be found easily. However, we

U=− + ; V= + (A-4)

∂y ∂x ∂x ∂y can infer some useful properties of these normal

modes :

∼ ∼

ζ = ∇2 ψ ; D = ∇2 χ (A-5) i) Time tendencies of slow (Rossby) modes

are very small and hence can be regarded as

∼ ∂V ∂U ∼ ∂U ∂V negligible terms in these Equations A-(12-14).

ζ = − ; D = + (A-6)

∂x ∂y ∂x ∂y Hence these R ossb y modes are nearly

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-21

∼ ∼ ∼ T

non-divergent (DR = 0) and quasi-geostrophic. initialized state by XI = ⎛ ζI , DI , φI ⎞ consisting

⎝ ⎠

∼

∼ of only slow Rossby modes for which DI = 0. Also

∇2 φR = f ζR (A-15)

by (A-15)

ii) All (Rossby as well as gravity) modes

∼

satisfy Equations A-12 and A-14. These equations ∇2 φI = f ζI (A-19)

give

∼ ∼

∼ If we add increments ∆ ζ =−ζ and

∼ 1 ∂ζ 1 ∂φ G

D =− =− 2

f ∂t m Φ ∂t ∼

∆φ = − φG to ζo and φo fields, we shall get

∼ ∼

∂ ⎛ζ φ ⎞ gravity wave-free fields ζI and φ I i.e.

∴ ⎜ − 2 ⎟ = 0

∂t f mΦ⎠ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼

⎝

∆ζ = − ζG = ζI − ζo (A-20)

∂ ⎛ 2 ∼

i.e. m Φ ζ − f φ⎞ = 0 ∆ φ = − φG = φI − φo

∂t ⎝ ⎠ (A-21)

We denote Z ≡ m2 Φ ζ − f φ and call it modes and hence by (A-18) they satisfy

"Potential Vorticity". We have

∼ f

∂Z ∆ζ = 2

∆φ (A-22)

= 0 (A-16 ) m Φ

∂t

Our immediate objective is to determine

iii) Associated with any mode, we can have a ∼

horizontal field of Z whose time variation is given ∆ ζ and ∆φ. Substituting A-(20-22) in (A-19) and

by re-arranging, we get a Helmholtz equation for ∆ φ :

Z ( x, y, t ) = Zo ( x, y ) eiυt ⎛ 2 f2 ⎞ 2 ∼

⎜∇ − 2 ⎟ (∆ φ) = − ∇ φ o + f ζo (A -23)

⎝ m Φ⎠

∂Z

i.e. ( x, y, t ) = i υ Zo (x, y) eiυt (A-17)

∂t R.H.S. is known from the initial analyzed field. By

∼

where υ is the frequency of the mode. solving (A-23), we get ∆φ. The corresponding ∆ ζ

∂Z can then be found immediately from (A-22).

From Eq. (A-16), we have ( x, y, t ) = 0. Hence ∼

∂t By adding increments ∆φ and ∆ζ to analyzed

either υ = 0 or Z o ( x , y ) = 0. ∼ ∼

fields φ o and ζo we get fields φR and ζR . Of

iv) For the fast (gravity) modes, υ ≠ 0; hence

Z o (x ,y) = 0; i.e. gravity modes have zero potential ∼

course DR = 0.

vorticity Z . Also Implicit non-linear NMI :

∼ Equations A-9 to A-11 can be written in the

m2 Φ ζG = f φG (A-18) form

where subscript G denotes gravity mode. ∼ ∼

⎡ ζ ⎤ ⎡0 − f 0 ⎤ ⎡ ζ ⎤ ⎡ Qζ ⎤

v) Entire potential vorticity is carried by ∂ ⎢ ∼ ⎥ = ⎢f ⎥ ⎢ ∼⎥ ⎢ Q ⎥

Rossby modes. ∂t⎢ D⎥ ⎢ 0 −∇2⎥ ⎢ D ⎥ + ⎢ D⎥ (A-24)

⎢ φ ⎥ ⎢0 −m2Φ 0 ⎥ ⎢ φ ⎥ ⎢ Qφ ⎥

Implicit Linear NMI : ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦

Let the analysed model state be denoted by As in the case of implicit linear NMI, we

T

∼ ∼ ∼ ∼

Xo = ⎛⎝ ζo , Do , φo ⎞⎠ . Set the fast gravity modes determine increments ∆ζ , ∆D , ∆φ which when

equal to zero and denote such gravity wave-free added to the analysed fields will take away gravity

7-22 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

modes. It is easy to see that the increments now be shown that this term (δt φ)G will be obtained

∼ ∼ by solving another Helmholtz equation which

∆ζ , ∆D , ∆φ will then satisfy the equation

∼

∼ involves time tendencies of ζ and φ. The argument

⎡ ( δt ζ )G ⎤ ∼

⎡ 0 f 0 ⎤⎡∆ζ⎤ is as follows :

⎢ ∼ ⎥ ⎢ 2⎥ ⎢ ∼⎥

⎢ ( δt D )G ⎥ = ⎢− f 20 ∇ ⎥ ⎢ ∆ D⎥ (A-25)

∼

⎢ ( δ φ) ⎥ ⎢ 0 m Φ 0 ⎥⎢∆φ⎥ Eq.(A−18) gives m2Φ( δt ζ )G = f ( δt φ )G

⎣ t G ⎦ ⎣ ⎦⎣ ⎦

(A-31)

The subscript G denotes the fast gravity

mode component of the vector; the time - ∼

Eq. (A−15) gives f ( δt ζ )R = ∇2 ( δt φ )R

∼ ∼

tendencies δt ζ , δt D , δt φ written on the left (A-32)

hand side of Eq. (A-25) are obtained by running the

∼ ∼ ∼

∼ ∼ Now f ( δt ζ )R + f ( δt ζ )G = f ( δt ζ )o (A-33)

model for one forward time-step; ∆ζ , ∆D , ∆φ

are the variables to be determined. ∼ ∼

∴ f ( δt ζ )G = f ( δt ζ )o − ∇2( δt φ )R

The second equation of (A-25) is

∼ ∼ ∼ ⎧ ⎫

− f ∆ ζ + ∇2(∆ φ) = (δt D )G (A-26) = f ( δt ζ )o − ∇2⎨⎩( δt φ )o − ( δt φ )G⎬⎭ (A-34)

hence the observed divergence and its ∴ ⎜ ∇2 − 2 ⎟ ( δt φ ) G = ∇2( δt φ ) o − f ( δt ζ ) o

time-tendency can be regarded as entirely due to ⎝ mΦ⎠

fast gravity modes, i.e. (A-35)

(δt D )o = (δt D )G (A-27) the model for one forward time-step. We have thus

∼ ∼

By virtue of (A-18), we also have obtained ∆ ζ , ∆D , ∆φ. We get corresponding

∼ ∆U , ∆V also. This completes one iteration. Its steps

m2 Φ ∆ ζ = f ∆ φ (A-28) are summarized below :

Substitution of (A-27) and (A-28) in (A-26) i) Run the model for one forward time-step to

∼ ∼

gives obtain ( δt ζ ) o , ( δt D ) o , ( δt φ ) o;

⎛ 2 f2 ⎞ ∼ ii) Solve Helmholtz Equation A-29 for ∆ φ;

⎜∇ − 2 ⎟ ∆ φ = (δt D )o (A-29)

iii) Solve Helmholtz Equation A-35 for

⎝ m Φ⎠

( δt φ ) G ;

Eq. (A-29) is Helmholtz equation for the

∼

required increment ∆ φ to the geopotential field φ; iv) Obtain ∆ ζ from ∆ φ through Eq. A-28;

the right-hand side of (A-29) is simply the field of ∼

∼ v) Obtain ∆ D from ( δt φ ) G through Eq.

tendency of D obtained from one forward time step

A-30;

of the model. Solve (A-29) for ∆ φ . Use this ∆ φ to

vi) Obtain ψ and χ functions from the vorticity

∼

obtain ∆ ζ from (A-28). Having obtained the and divergence fields by solving Helmholtz

∼ equations

increment in ζ and φ fields, now proceed to get

∼ ∼ ∼

∆ D, the increment in divergence field D . ∇2 (∆ ψ) = ∆ ζ

The third equation of (A-25) is ∼

∇2 (∆ χ) = ∆ D

∼

m2 Φ ∆ D = (δt φ)G (A-30)

vii) From ∆ψ and ∆χ functions, obtain wind

∼ components

To get ∆ D, we now require (δt φ)G . It will

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-23

∆U=− (∆ψ) + (∆ χ)

∂y ∂x potential and φ is the geopotential height expressed

∂ ∂ as a perturbation on its mean value Φ. The operators

∆V= (∆ ψ) + (∆ χ)

∂x ∂y F and B are defined by

viii) Add the increments ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ to the ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞ ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞

model fields. F≡ ⎜f ∂x ⎟ + ∂y ⎜f ∂y ⎟ (A′ -4 )

∂x ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠

(Note : The Helmholtz equations mentioned

in steps (ii), (iii) and (vi) above are to be solved by ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞ ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞

B≡ ⎜f ⎟ − ⎜f ⎟ (A′ - 5)

assigning suitable boundary conditions (A-7) and ∂x ⎝ ∂y ⎠ ∂y ⎝ ∂x ⎠

(A-8)).

This completes iteration number 1. Now The non-linear terms have all been grouped

check if ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ are all less than some together and put on the RHS of Equations (A′-1),

specified small values. If not, go to iteration (A′-2), (A′-3) as Qψ , Qχ , Qφ.

numbers 2,3,....until ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ are all less than The model is bounded by a solid wall Γ in

the specified small values; i.e. the iterative scheme the vicinity of the equator. Boundary conditions at

converges. the solid wall are that there is no cross-boundary

When the iterative scheme converges, the flow; i.e. ψ = 0 and n⋅χ = 0 on Γ; n is the

resulting model state satisfies outward-pointing normal vector at the wall.

Linear Normal Modes :

∼

⎧ δt D = 0 ⎫ Linear normal modes of the model are the

⎨ ∼ 2 ⎬ (A-36) solutions of the linear equations :

⎩ δt ( f ζ − ∇ φ ) = 0 ⎭

∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞

Appendix 7.2 Ac ∇ ψ =−Fχ (A′-6)

An Improved Version of the Implicit Non-linear ∂t ⎝ ⎠

NMI Scheme : ∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞

Temperton (1988) further improved the ∇ χ = F ψ + Bχ − ∇2 φ (A′-7)

∂t ⎝ ⎠

implicit non-linear NMI scheme given in Appendix

7.2(A). It is believed that this scheme is better in ∂φ

handling "Beta" terms, boundary conditions and = − m2 Φ ∇2 χ (A′-8)

∂t

mutual orthogonality of the derived Rossby and

Gravity modes. We shall now present an outline of Some important properties of the linear Normal

this improved scheme retaining the same barotropy Modes :

of the model in Cartesian coordinates on a polar f and m 2 are not constant in space. Hence,

stereographic projection, with the same map-scale Eqs. (A′-6) to (A′-8) are non-separable and the

1 + sin θo normal modes cannot be found easily. However, we

factor m given by m = and wind images can infer some useful properties of these normal

1 + sin θ

modes :

u v

U and V given by U = , V= . i) Time-tendencies of slow (Rossby) modes

m m

The shallow-water equations are denoted by subscript R are very small and hence can

be regarded as zero in Eqs. (A′-1) to (A′-3); these

∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞ modes are stationary. These modes are also nearly

∇ ψ = − Fχ + Bψ + Qψ (A′-1)

∂t ⎝ ⎠ non-divergent and satisfy the linear Balance

equation :

∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞

∇ χ = F ψ + Bχ − ∇2φ + Qχ (A′-2)

∂t ⎝ ⎠ ∇2 φR = F ψR (A′-9)

= − m2 Φ ∇2χ + Qφ (A′-3)

∂t denoted by subscript G, are comparable to other

terms in Eqs. (A′-1) to (A′-3) and hence cannot be

7-24 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

∂χ Arguing on the same lines as before, one

the boundary condition = 0 on Γ. We can then iteration of initialization scheme, using normal

∂n

invert Eq. (A′-8) and write modes based on Eqs. (A′-6) to (A′-8) is exactly

equivalent to

⎧∂ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫

∇n−2 ⎨

1

χ=− ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬ (A′-10) ⎡ 0 F 0 ⎤ ⎡ ∆ψ⎤ ⎡ δt ( ∇2 ψ ) ⎤

Φ ⎩ ∂t ⎝ m ⎠⎭ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥

⎢ ⎥

⎢−F −B ∇2⎥ ⎢ ∆χ ⎥ = ⎢ δt ( ∇2χ ) ⎥

where ∇−2n is the linear operator which inverts the

⎢ 0 m2 Φ ∇2 0 ⎥ ⎢ ∆φ ⎥ ⎢δ φ ⎥

⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ t ⎦G

Laplacian with homogeneous Neumann-type

boundary conditions. The consistency condition for (A′-13)

this inversion, namely that the domain integral of

⎧ ∂ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫ where ∆ψ , ∆χ , ∆φ are the required changes to the

⎨ ∂t ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬ vanishes, is satisfied. variables, and the tendencies on the RHS are

⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭ obtained from one forward model time-step; the

From Eqs. (A′-6) and (A′-10), we get the subscript G denotes the fast-moving gravity mode

linearised potential vorticity equation component.

∂Z′ The third equation of (A′-13) is

=0

∂t

m2 Φ ∇2 (∆ χ) = (δt φ)G (A′-14)

where

This equation will be used to find the

⎛ φ ⎞ required changes to the χ-component of the wind

Z′ ≡ Φ ∇2 ψ − F ∇n −2 ⎜ 2 ⎟ (A′-11)

⎝m ⎠ field. To determine ( δt φ ) G, we use the same

is the potential vorticity. argument as before.

iii) Associated with any mode, we can have a (A′-12) gives

horizontal field of Z′ with time variation given by

⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫

F ∇n −2 ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬ = Φ ⎛∇2 δt ψ⎞ (A′-15)

Z ′ (x , y , t) = Z ′o (x , y) e iυt ⎝ ⎠G

⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭G

∂Z′

( x , y , t ) = i υ Z′o ( x , y ) ei υ t

∂t Total time tendency is the sum of its two component

tendencies

where υ is the frequency of the mode.

∴ F (δt ψ)G = F (δt ψ)o − F (δt ψ)R ( A′-17)

Eq. (A′-11) now gives that either υ = 0 or

Z′o = 0. The condition υ = 0 is associated with or F ( δt ψ )G = F ( δt ψ)o − ∇2 (δt φ)o + ∇2 (δt φ)G

slow-moving Rossby modes and the condition (A′-18)

Z′o (x , y) = 0 is associated with fast-moving gravity

The boundary condition for ψ on the rigid

modes. Hence for gravity modes, we have

boundary Γ is ψ = 0. With this homogeneous

⎛ φ ⎞ Dirichlet-type boundary condition, Eq. (A ′-15)

Φ ( ∇2 ψ )G = F ∇n −2 ⎜ 2 ⎟ (A’-12)

⎝ m ⎠G gives

iv) Slow-moving Rossby modes have zero ⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫

Φ (δt ψ)G = ∇d −2 F ∇n −2 ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟ ⎬

divergence but non-zero potential vorticity, with

⎩ ⎝ m ⎠ ⎭G

pressure-wind field satisfying linear Balance

equation; fast-moving gravity modes have non-zero 1 ⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫

divergence but zero potential vorticity. ∴ F(δt ψ)G = F ∇d −2 F ∇n −2 ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬

Φ ⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭ G

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-25

rotational part of the wind field, we invoke the

∇d −2 denotes the linear operator which inverts the

property that gravitational modes have zero

Laplacian with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary

potential vorticity (Eq. (A′-12)).

condition.

Combining (A′-18) and (A′-19), we get 1 ⎛∆ φ⎞

i.e. ∇2 (∆ ψ) = F ∇ −2

n ⎜ 2⎟ (A′-26)

Φ ⎝m ⎠

1 −2 ⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫

∇2(δt φ)G − F ∇−2

d F ∇n ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬

Φ ⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭G The whole algorithm for one iteration of the

initialization scheme is summarised below :

= − F ( δt ψ) o + ∇2 ( δt φ ) o (A′-20) i) Run the model for one forward time-step to

obtain the "observed" time tendencies

Given the "observed" one forward time-step δt (∇2 ψ)o , δt (∇2 χ)o , δt (φ)o.

tendencies of φ and ψ , Eq. (A ′- 20) helps us to ii) Solve (A′-20) for (δt φ)G and then (A′-14)

obtain the tendency ( δt φ ) G . Eq. (A ′-14) is then for ∆χ.

solved for ∆χ, with boundary condition iii) Solve (A′-25) for ∆φ.

∂ iv) Solve (A′-26) for ∆ψ.

(∆ χ) = 0 on Γ. We now return to the second

∂n v) From ∆ψ and ∆χ , obtain ∆U and ∆V .

equation of (A’-13). vi) Add the increments ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ to the

⎧ ⎫ model fields.

− F ( ∆ ψ ) − B ( ∆χ ) + ∇2 ( ∆ φ ) = ⎨⎩δt (∇2 χ)⎬⎭

G This is iteration No. 1. Now repeat the steps (i)

to (vi). Follow this iterative procedure until the

(A′-21)

increments ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ are below some specified

As stated earlier, the slow Rossby modes are small values. If the iterative scheme converges, it

non-divergent; i.e. follows from (A′-20) and (A′-25) that the resulting

⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫ model state satisfies

⎨

⎩

δt (∇2 χ )⎬⎭ = ⎨⎩δt (∇2 χ )⎬⎭ (A′-22)

G 0

⎧ δt ⎛∇2 χ⎞ = 0 ⎫

From (A′-20) and (A′-14), we have already ⎨ ⎝ ⎠

2 ⎬ (A’-27)

obtained ∆χ. Now using (A′-22), Eq. (A′-21) gives ⎩ δt ( Fψ − ∇ φ) = 0 ⎭

Higher-order NMI Scheme :

⎧ ⎫

It is possible to build an hierarchy of higher

∇2(∆φ) − F(∆ψ) = ⎨⎩δt(∇2χ)⎬⎭ + B(∆χ) (A′-23) order normal mode initialization schemes, both

o

explicit and implicit, along with increasing

Since the changes ∆ φ and ∆ψ correspond to complexity. Temperton (1988) also gave an implicit

the fast modes, having zero potential vorticity, we version of Tribbia’s (1984) higher-order explicit

can obtain, as in case of Eq. (A′-19), scheme. In going from explicit to implicit version,

one has now to take two forward time-steps instead

1 −2 ⎛ ∆φ ⎞

F (∆ ψ) = F ∆ −2

d F ∆ n ⎜ 2⎟ (A′-24) of one forward time-step taken in the last scheme.

Φ ⎝m ⎠ For details of the corresponding iteration scheme,

the reader is referred to the original paper of

substituting (A′-24) in (A′-23), we get

Temperton (1988).

−2 ⎛ ∆φ ⎞

1 BOUNDED DERIVATIVE METHOD

∇2(∆ φ) − F ∇−2

d F ∇n ⎜ 2 ⎟ = Introduction :

Φ ⎝m ⎠ The method of Bounded Derivative has

⎧ ⎫

⎨

⎩

δt (∇2 χ)⎬⎭ + B ( ∆ χ ) (A′-25) been in use for quite some time in fields like Plasma

o Physics. This method appears to have been first

This is the required equation for the change ∆φ to brought into Meteorology by Kreiss (1980).

Browning, Kasahara and Kreiss (1980) formalised

the geopotential field φ.

7-26 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

the method systematically for initialization schemes hierarchy of initialization schemes are outlined

in numerical weather prediction. In its final form, below :

the bounded derivative method has much i) It is first accepted as a fact, based on

resemblance with implicit non-linear normal mode observations, that Rossby-wave modes have

initialization. relatively large horizontal-scales and relatively

Initialization problem in NWP work is to small frequencies and large periods in time

modify the original analysed pressure and wind compared to gravity-wave modes.

fields in such a way that the amplitudes of the ii) In Rossby-wave modes, rotational

fast-moving gravitational modes are small and their component of wind is larger than the irrotational

first and successive time derivatives are also small. component of wind.

As in NMI schemes, one can get an hierarchy of iii) The pressure and wind fields in Rossby

bounded derivative (BD) schemes also. In modes are in near-geostrophic balance. The linear

First-Order approximation of pressure-wind and non-linear balance relationships are only some

relationship, BD scheme demands that the first time refinements of quasi-geostrophic balance and are

derivatives of u , v, φ at time t = 0 are negligible; not drastically different from it.

using this approximate pressure-wind relationship, iv) In Rossby-wave modes, Rossby Number

the Second-Order approximation demands that the Ro is much smaller than 1.

second-order time-derivatives of u , v, φ are also v) In terms of the above properties of

small; Higher-Order approximations demand that Rossby-wave modes, the gravity-wave modes stand

further Higher-Order time-derivatives are also quite in contrast; e.g. the horizontal scales of

small. The method keeps successive gravity-wave modes are generally small. Even if

time-derivatives of u , v, φ bounded; the upper limits their horizontal scales be large, yet their changes in

of the time-derivatives are derived from the time are fast; time-tendencies in gravity-modes are

corresponding space-derivative terms occurring in large. Their irrotational component of wind is much

the model equations. larger than the rotational component; flow is also

As is well-known, quasi-geostrophic model essentially cross-isobaric.

gives the First-Order diagnostic relationship vi) Keeping these facts in mind, one performs

between pressure and wind fields energetically scale analysis of the primitive equations in terms of

consistent with a prognostic form of the truncated ch ar acter istic len gth and time scales of

vorticity equation; Second-Order pressure-wind Rossby-wave modes and then to find approximate

relationship is the diagnostic linear Balance forms of primitive equations which will be

equation with some more terms in energetically consistent with Rossby-wave modes. For the

consistent vorticity equation. Non-linear diagnostic characteristic length-scale chosen, a restriction is

Balance equation between pressure and wind fields put on the values of the first time- derivatives in the

with corresponding additional terms in prognostic prognostic terms of the primitive equations. This

vo rticity eq uation gives the Third-Order ensures that the prognostic term is small compared

approximation, and so on. These are all derived to space-gradient terms thereby ensuring small

from the consideration of energetic consistency value for the Rossby number Ro. In other words,

(Lorenz, 1960). time tendency can be neglected in comparison to

Similarly, Bounded Derivative Method ∂

some large space-gradient terms, i.e. ∼ 0 in

also gives an hierarchy of pressure-wind ∂t

relationships based on the bounds of prognostic model equations. This is the First-Order

time-derivatives. The reader may ask whether approximation.

these refinements are worth the trouble. The answer vii) The next Second-Order approximation is

is that at least conceptually, these exercises give a made by differentiating the prognostic primitive

deeper understanding of and support for hierarchy equations with respect to time once more, and then

of initialization schemes. demanding that the Second-Order time-derivative is

Basic Steps : small compared to the First-Order time derivatives

Some basic steps in the understanding of of other space-gradient terms in the primitive

equation. The condition obtained during the

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-27

4) For illustration, we shall adopt characteristic

Second-Order approximation.

scales of a typical, middle-latitude synoptic

viii) Third-Order approximation is made by

disturbance.

further differentiating the primitive equation with

respect to time and then demanding that the L horizontal scale ≈ 106 m

Third-Order time derivative is small compared to ∼ height perturbation ≈ 102 m

H

the Second-Order time derivatives of other − mean height ≈ 104 m

H

space-gradient terms in the primitive equation. The ∼ 7.2(11)

horizontal particle speed ≈ 10 m s−1

conditions obtained during the First-Order and V

∼ 5

T characteristic time L ⁄ V = 10 s

Second-Order approximations are utilised in this

Third-Order approximation, and so on.

K characteristic wave number ≈ 10−6 m−1

G gravitational acceleration ≈ 10 m s−2

F Coriolis Parameter = 10−4 s−1

Illustration :

5) Non-dimensional quantities are all of the order

We shall illustrate the method of Bounded unity, except ∈ = O (10−1). To identify these

Derivative Initialization (BDI) for the simple case quantities, we show them, temporarily, as primed

of a linearised shallow-water model in (x,t) quantities.

co-ordinates given by Semazzi and Navon (1986). ∼ ∼ , x′ = x / L

u ′ = u ⁄ V∼

−

Basic state consists of a uniform zonal current U ∼ ∼

v ′ = v⁄V

∼ , k′ = k / K

− ∼ ∼ ∼ , g′ = g / G 7.2(12)

geostrophically balanced with height h . The steps h′ = h / H

are as given below : − − − , − − ∼

h ′=h /H U ′=U /V

1) The linearised Equations are t′ = t / T , f′=f/F

6) Substituting 7.2(12) into 7.2(10), we get a system

⎧ ∂u − ∂u ∂h ⎫ of non-dimensional equations. We illustrate this by

⎪ ∂t + U ∂x − f v = − g ∂x ⎪

⎪ ⎪ substitution in the first of the three equations of

⎪ ∂v − ∂v ⎪ 7.2(10).

⎨ +U +fu=0 ⎬ 7.2(8)

⎪ ∂t ∂x

− ⎪ ∂u

∼

∂u ′

∼

⎪ ∂h − ∂h − ∂u

+U +h

U

− f v = 0⎪

⎪ → × 10−4 ms−2

⎪ ∂t ∂t′

⎩ ∂ t ∂ x ∂ x g

⎭

∼ − ∼ −

2) Assume Perturbations of the form i k u U → i k′ u′ U ′ × 10−4 ms−2

~ ∼ ∼

⎛u ⎞ ⎛u⎞

~ ikx i k g h → i k′ g′ h ′ × 10−3 ms−2

⎜v ⎟ = ⎜v ⎟ e 7.2(9)

~ ∼ ∼

⎝h ⎠ ⎝h ⎠ f v → f ′ v′ × 10−3 ms−2

∼ ∼ ∼

where u , v , h are functions of time only. ∼

∂u ′ ∼ − ∼ ∼

or + ik′u′ U ′ + 10 ⎛i k′g′h′ − f ′ v′ ⎞ = 0

∂t′ ⎝ ⎠

3) Substituting 7.2(9) into 7.2(8), we get

∼ 7) To simplify the notation, we now drop primes,

⎧ ∂u − ∼ ∼ ∼ ⎫

⎪ +ikU u+ikgh−fv=0 ⎪ though remembering all the time, that we are

⎪ ∂t ⎪ dealing with non-dimensional quantities each of

⎪ ∂v

∼

− ∼ ∼ ⎪ order unity in the equations except ∈= O(10−1).

⎨ +ikU v+fu = 0 ⎬ With this understanding, Eqs. 7.2(10) become

⎪ ∂t ⎪

∼ −

⎪ ∂h − ∼ fU v∼ − ∼ ⎪ ⎛ ∂u∼ ∼− ⎞

⎪ +ikU h− + i k hu = 0 ⎪ ∼ ∼

∈ ⎜ + i k u U⎟ + ⎛ i k g h − f v ⎞ = 0

⎩ ∂t g ⎭ ∂ t ⎝ ⎠

⎝ ⎠

7.2(10)

7-28 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

⎛ ∂v∼ ∼− ⎞ ∼ ⎧ ∼

∂h ∂v

∼

⎫

∈⎜ +ikvU⎟+fu = 0 7.2(13) ⎪ ikg − f = 0 ⎪

⎝ ∂t ⎠ ⎪ ∂t ∂t ⎪

∼

⎪ ∂u ⎪

⎛ ∂∼h − _ ⎨ = 0 ⎬

U ∼ ⎞ f 7.2(17)

∼ −

2

∈ ⎜ + ikh U − f v ⎟ + i k h ∼u = 0 ⎪ ∂t ⎪

⎝ ∂t g ⎠ ⎪ _ ∂∼u ⎪

⎪ i k h = 0 ⎪

⎩ ∂t ⎭

8) To ensure that the First-Order time derivatives of

u, v, h correspond to Rossby modes, it has been In effect, these are two equations in 3 quantities

shown by Browning et al. (1980) that the First- ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼

∂u ∂v ∂h ∂u ∂v ∂h

Order approximation is given by , and . Substituting for , and .

∂t ∂t ∂t ∂t ∂t ∂t

⎧ i k g ∼h − f ∼v = ∈ a ( x , y , t ) ⎫ in 7.2(13), we get

⎪ ∼ ⎪

⎨ fu=∈b(x,y,t) ⎬ 7.2(14) − ∼ ∼ −

⎪ − ∼ 2 ⎪ ⎛ −2 2h −1 ⎞ u − v g k2 U

⎩ ikh u= ∈ c(x,y,t) ⎭ ⎜∈ gk f +∈ f⎟ ∼ + 2 i k U ∼ = −

f

⎝ ⎠ h h

where a,b,c are smooth functions.

∼ ∼

The simplest way to satisfy these conditions − u v

i k U ∼ − ∈−1 f ∼ = − i g k ∈−1 7.2(18)

is to assume that a = b = c = 0 at time t = 0. From h h

7.2(14), we then get

∼ −

∼ ∼ u ∈2 g k 2 U

ikgh−fv=0 or ∼ = − −

h k2 g h + ∈ f 2 − 2 ∈3 k 2 U 2

− ∼∼

i k hf uu= 0 ∼ −

v ikg ⎡ ∈3 k2 U 2 ⎤

∼ ∼ ∼ = f ⎢ 1 +

2 − 2 3 2 −2⎥

u v ikg h ⎣ k gh +∈f −2∈ k U ⎦

or ∼ =0 , ∼ =

f

7.2(15)

h h 7.2(19)

∼ ∼

i.e. v is in geostrophic balance while u, which could If the terms of the order ∈3 in the

give horizontal velocity divergence, is zero as a denominators of 7.2(19) are neglected, the balance

First-Order approximation (non-divergent relationship between wind and pressure field

geostrophic balance model). becomes identical with that given by Phillips

9) To get Second-Order approximation at time t = (1960).

0, we first differentiate 7.2(14) with respect to time 7.2.3 Four-dimensional (4-D) Data Assimilation :

and get Under the topic of Objective Analysis, we

dealt with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional

⎧ ∼ ∼

∂h ∂v ∂a ⎫ interpolation at grid points in 2-dimensional and

⎪ ikg − f = ∈ ⎪

⎪ ∂t ∂t ∂t ⎪ 3- dim en sion al sp ace, when we ar e g iven

⎪ ∼ observations at observation points, which are not

∂u ∂b ⎪

⎨ f = ∈ ⎬ 7.2(16) located at our grid points. All the observations were

⎪ ∂t ∂t ⎪ considered to be simultaneous or synoptic. Our next

⎪ _ ∂∼u ∂c ⎪ question relates to the utilization of data which are

⎪ ikh = ∈2 ⎪

⎩ ∂t ∂t ⎭ non-synoptic or asynoptic. This question has arisen

particularly during the last few decades when

Now we put

satellites give frequent observations

∂a ∂b ∂c

=0= = ; i.e. distributed round the clock. In our NWP work,

∂t ∂t ∂t should we use only those satellite observations

which are very close to the standard hours of

observation? The same question may also arise in

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-29

respect of other observations which are taken after of Euler-Backward time differencing. The same

the initial time of NWP model and are received data at one grid point were inserted repeatedly every

during the course of the integration of the NWP time step for a 2-hour interval, beginning one hour

model. There is a general desire to include all these before the valid forecast time. Their main

asynoptic observations in the model forecast conclusions were as follows :

scheme as far as possible. Naturally, this will have 1) 4-dimensional assimilation approach is

to be done through some scheme of objective viable.

analysis. When we add time dimension to objective 2) For the middle and higher latitudes, the

analysis in three dimensions of space, it becomes assimilation results were better for the northern

4-dimensional objective analysis. hemisphere than for the southern hemisphere,

4-dimensional objective analysis in the presumably due to relatively greater scarcity of data

tropics presents some special difficulties. As stated for the southern hemisphere.

earlier, even the objectively analysed two or three 3) The results for the tropics were less

dimensional data at grid points have to be subjected satisfactory than for the extra-tropics.

to special initialization processes (static, dynamic or 4) The scheme somewhat over-smoothens

a combination of the two) if we are to avoid meteorologically significant systems also.

unrealistic high-frequency oscillations of large Ghil et al. (1979) experimented with

amplitudes. After all this sophistication at initial insertion of time-continuous satellite-sounding

time t = 0, it will not be advisable to feed into the temperatures obtained from polar-orbiting satellites

computer model during the process of integration, NOAA-4 and Nimbus-6 during the period

raw data as they are received after time t = 0. January-March 1976. They used the GLAS

Feeding of such raw data will create considerable (Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences)

"noise" inside the model and this may even ruin the General circulation model with 4o latitude × 5o

forecast. The model cannot "assimilate" or "digest" longitude horizontal resolution. They used

the new data in raw form. We must subject the new Euler-backward time differencing scheme, with

raw data to some special process before feeding the staggered distribution of variables in space grid and

same into the computer model. Problems relating to additional smoothing at high latitudes. The scheme

the feeding of these asynoptic data through strongly suppresses high-frequency oscillations.

4-dimensional objective analysis are referred to as The vertical temperature profiles obtained

the problems of 4-dimensional data assimilation. from satellite-based radiance measurements were

This is a relatively new area of research although grouped at 10-minute time intervals, centered in

the problems are basically the same as those of time around a forecast model time step, which was

static or dynamic initialization. The special also of 10 minutes. All the methods experimented

difficulty in the tropics is the relative slowness with, carried out a correction of forecast

of adjustment towards a balanced state. It has temperatures at grid points situated in the

to be ensured that gravity waves, which get easily neigh bo ur ho od of a g ro up o r clu ster of

excited at the slightest provocation, shall remain satellite-observed temperatures. This correction

within tolerable limits before any new information was applied to the forecast value at the model time

is introduced. step closest to the observation time. It was based on

Miyakoda et al. (1976) subjected the global interpolation of (observed minus model forecast)

surface and upper air data for the entire GATE temperature field. The difference between various

period (15th June to 24th Sept 1974) to their methods consisted in the manner in which the

technique of four-dimensional assimilation, using interpolation co-efficients were determined. This

GFDL general circulation model, with 9 vertical interpolation was two-dimensional (on isobaric

levels and approximately 220 km horizontal surface). In principle, these methods are similar to

resolution on a modified Kurihara grid. For a those used for objective analysis.

limited period (4th to 17th Sept 1974), they A number of experiments were performed to

experimented with three different versions of data study the effects of using various amounts of

insertio n. Th eir scheme of damping the satellite data and different methods of assimilation.

high-frequency oscillation is through repeated use These included the assimilation of data from the

7-30 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

NOAA -4 satellite only, from Nimbus-6 only, and different times during the FGGE period. This

of data from both satellites combined. The tests method is an intermittent data assimilation system,

involved variations in the application of successive using a multi-variate optimum interpolation

correction methods and optimum interpolation analysis, a non-linear normal mode initialization,

methods. Intermittent feeding of the satellite and also a high resolution forecast that produces a

sounding data was also tested, and its results first estimate for the subsequent analysis. Data were

compared with those of time-continuous feeding. assimilated in 6-hour periods.

The satellite data were assimilated to Hoffman (1986) suggested a 4-Dimensional

produce initial states for numerical forecasts. For variational procedure to minimize errors

each assimilation experiment, an evenly spaced simultaneously in three-dimensions of space and

sequence of initial states was selected, from which the fourth dimension of time. Let T be time period

3-day forecasts were made. larger than the adjustment time of the forecast

The effects of satellite data feeding were model. To get a 4-Dimensionally consistent data set

judged by the following three criteria : at time t = 0, one determines the field at t = − T such

i) Differences between the initial states that the difference between the model-forecasted

produced with and without utilisation of satellite field during time t = -T and t = 0 and all the

data. observations in this time interval satisfy the

ii) Difference between numerical predictions condition of "best fit" in 4-Dimensions. This

made from these initial states. becomes the initial data set at t = 0.

iii) Differences in local city precipitation Lorenc (1988) presented an iterative scheme

forecasts for 128 cities uniformly distributed over of 4-dimensional assimilation. It uses operationally

the United States. available observations, 3-dimensional objective

The experiments suggested the following analysis and the forecast model equations. It

conclusions : approximates a variational algorithm and is an

i) Feeding of satellite temperature data can extension of 3-dimensional optimum interpolation

have a modest, but statistically significant positive scheme. The author performed a series of

impact on numerical weather forecasts, as verified experiments and produced dynamically consistent

over the continents of the northern hemisphere. 4- dim en sion al an aly ses which fitted the

ii) This impact is highly sensitive to the observations without too much of computer time.

quantity of satellite data fed, the more the better. However, he admitted that the scheme still required

The impact of two satellite systems was larger than considerable improvement before it could be

that of one-satellite system by an amount roughly adopted for operational work; that it could be used

proportional to the quantity of data fed. on ex perim en tal b asis f or arr iving at an

iii) The method of data interpolation plays a operationally acceptable scheme. Indeed, the

major role in the magnitude of the impact for the subject of 4-dimensional assimilation needs much

same data. Direct Insertion Method had practically theoretical work and trial experiments for

no impact. Successive Correction Method and improvement, even though some schemes are in use

Statistical Assimilation Method provided an operationally at the operational forecasting centres.

appreciable impact. Physical Initialization introduced by T.N.

iv) Time-continuous feeding of satellite Krishnamurti :-

derived temperatures was better than intermittent What is Physical Initialization?

feeding. Krishnamurti et al. (1995, MWR,

In actual practice, the method of 4-D September, pp. 2771-2790) presented a review of

assimilation varies from one operational centre to the subject, quoting earlier work of Krishnamurti et

another, and also varies at one and the same al. (1984, J. Metero. Soc., Japan, 62, 613-649);

operational centre from time to time. Bengtsson et Ramamurthy and Carr (1987); Kasahara et al.

al. (1982) described the method of 4-D assimilation (1988); Donner (1988); Donner and Rasch (1989);

used at the European Centre for Medium Range Puri and Miller (1990); Puri and Davidson (1992)

Weather Forecasts, UK, for producing FGGE level and others.

III-b data set, out of the level II-b data collected at

7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-31

are summarized below: Krishnamurti et al. (1998, Meteorology

(i) Estimate Observed Rainfall Rate: and Atmospheric Physics, 65,171-181 ) have

Observed rainfall rate at time of satellite picture is further shown that physical initialization gives a

estimated from regression equation involving a mix useful input for initial mapping of meso-scale

of surface-based systems (Like Rain gauge) and systems within the field of a tropical cyclone and

Space-based systems (OLR, Microwave ... Satellite this improved initial input contributes towards

Pictur es SSM/I Special Sensor improved prediction of future intensity of a

Microwave/Imager). cyclone. The authors illustrated this improvement

(ii) Reverse Cumulus Parameterization: in the case study of hurricane OPAL over the Gulf

Modify the vertical distribution of humidity so as to of Mexico for the period Oct.2,1995 , 12 UTC

give the above "observed" rainfall through Kuo’s through October 6, 1995 ,12 UTC.

parameterization scheme modified by Krishnamurti Phy s ic al initia lizat ion test ed on

et al. (1983, Moistening, Heating and Rainfall Track-Forecasting of tropical cyclones :

rates). This is being called Reverse Cumulus Williford et al. (1998, MWR, May,

Parameterization. pp.1332-1336) analysed the errors in the positions

(iii) Physical Initialization : Modify other of tropical cyclone centers in the Atlantic ocean, the

parameters of the atmosphere so as to be consistent northeast Pacific Ocean and the northwest Pacific

with this rainfall rate, vertical distribution of ocean during the period 1989-1995. They compared

humidity, thermodynamics, vorticity, convergence, the cumulative forecast errors of American

etc. This initial field is now accepted for time operational forecast centers (Tropical Prediction

integration. This is called "Physical initialization". Center / National Hurricane Center/ Joint Typhoon

(iv) T.N. Krishnamurti et al. used global Warning Center) and the FSU global spectral model

spectral model T213. forecast having physical initialization scheme.

(v) In one of their studies they got Mesoscale The errors were calculated for 12-hour,

systems with rainfall rate of the order of 4 cm / 3 hr 24-hour, 36-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecast

(4 x δ = 32 cm / day). positions.

(vi) Meso-scale systems present in satellite The errors are shown below :-

pictures get identified and structurally analysed; Errors in position (km)

these are then incorporated in NWP models through

"Physical initialization", with improved physical Forecast Model 12-hr 24-hr 36-hr 48-hr 72-hr

and dynamical consistency. 24-hour prediction of FSU Model 115 180 235 291 469

such systems appears possible. Operational Model 102 176 257 352 550

(vii) Authors identified as many as 47

meso-scale precipitation elements over the global Phy sical init ializa tio n test ed ag ainst

tropics (30o S - 30o N) at 1200 UTC on 22 August climatology:

1992. Krishnamurti et al. (1999, Atomosfera, 12, pp.

(viii) There is currently a line of thinking 199-203) have shown the utility of physical

that within an easterly wave there exists a initialization in preparing rainfall climatology and

population of Mesoscale Convective Systems also in improving the analysis of three-dimensional

(MCSs), each containing its own relative vorticity initial state of the atmosphere on a routine basis.

maximum.The prevailing lower- tropospheric flow Phy sical initializatio n leads to improved

advects these MCSs. At favorable locations, these forecasting for very short periods which may be

give rise to disturbances with wavelengths of the called "now-casting". They have shown that the

order of 500-1000 km. rainfall estimate through physical initialization in a

A few of them may develop into tropical forecasting model comes very close ( c.c ~ 0.9 ) to

storms and cyclones. If there is circular flow, then the observed one, thus improving the climatology

these MCSs are likely to converge and coalesce into not only of rainfall but also of other meteorological

a spiral rain band. (Holland and Dietachmayer, par ameter s lik e tem perature, humidity,

1993; Lander and Holland, 1993; Ritchie and static-stability, etc.

7-32 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

To get this improved estimate of rainfall, the also better simulated; the scheme enhances coastal

authors follow what they call "Reverse Cumulus upwelling Ekman transport and low-level wind

Parameterization Algorithm"; this algorithm circulation.

restructures the vertical distribution of specific

humidity such that the use of the forward algorithm 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in

in the forecast model produces nearly the same the Tropics

rain as was supplied to it. The specific humidity in

the constant flux layer near the surface is also Since early 1960s, there have been several

restructured through reverse surface similarity attempts at cumulus parameterization. For

theory, such that the surface evaporation and the synoptic-scale models, meso-scale cumulus

prescribed precipitation are in close balance. motions are regarded as sub-grid motions. For

Specific humidity field in the upper troposphere is meso-scale models, individual cumulus motions are

also restructured to be consistent with the forecast regarded as sub-grid motions. As such, scales of

model-based OLR and the satellite - observed parameterization have varied considerably. The

OLR. This procedure provides a balance among the more of details we incorporate in these schemes, the

vertically integrated evaporation, precipitation and more we wish we could incorporate. This way,

the moisture sink in the vertical. there will be no end. Somewhere we have to stop

The high degree of accuracy is obtained by and review the advantages and disadvantages

placing the reverse algorithm adjacent to the of incorporating more and more details.

forward forecast algorithm. This assures a high skill Principally, the cost and speed of computation

for each short time-step of model forecast rainfall. decide the limit for various investigators. As such,

Accumulation of the model registers of each various schemes are being reported in literature.

small time step over a longer time period like a Also, slight variations are made by some

month gives good climatology. The authors investigators and they generally all report "good"

compared FSU Model climatology of Oct.1991 results. It becomes pretty difficult to judge the

rainfall over the region 30o S to 30o N around the relative merits of several cumulus

whole latitude belt, against the rainfall climatology parameterization schemes now in the field. We

of ECMWF and NCEP for the same period, shall briefly review some of the most widely used

October 1991. The comparison confirms the utility schemes for meso-scale model parameterizations

of physical initialization for improved and and for synoptic-scale model parameterizations

model-consistent climatology. (Houze and Betts, 1981; Ooyama, 1982; Frank,

Physical initialization tested on low-level 1983b).

stratus clouds Meso-scale Model Parameterizations :

Bachiochi and Krishnamurti (2000, Kreitzberg and Perkey (1976, 1977) employed what

Monthly Weather Review, September, Vol. 128, may be called sequential plume model to simulate

pp . 3 08 3- 3103) introduced an improved the convection. The plumes were activated

parameterization scheme for low-level stratus whenever grid-point conditional instability

clouds in the FSU Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere exceeded a critical value determined by cloud

model and showed that this parameterization depth, and continued until the instability dropped

scheme improves the simulation of low-level below the threshold. The total mass flux at cloud

stratus clouds along the west coast of the north and base was determined iteratively by requiring that

South American continents. In their the hydrostatic pressure in the plume becomes

parameterization scheme, the PBL clouds depend equal to the pressure in the subsiding environment.

on the PBL column thermal structure, low-level These authors simulated meso-scale rain bands

stability, wind magnitude at the PBL top, relative similar to those found in extra-tropical

humidity and surface wetness. This scheme of cyclones.

low-level stratus cloud parameterization appears to Brown (1979) used a one-dimensional

give better energy balance at the sea surface, in the updraft plume model to simulate convection in his

PBL layer below the cloud base as well as inside the two-dimensional meso-scale model. He included

stratus cloud mass; land-sea thermal contrasts are subsidence between plumes and somewhat detailed

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-33

of condensation products. He assumed that the total All the above mentioned parameterization

cloud mass flux at 900 mb (hPa) was directly schemes have considerable flexibility in respect of

propotional to the large-scale mass flux at that level. specifications for vertical eddy heating and eddy

The constant of proportionality was empirically moistening. It is also possible to incorporate

determined. He modelled evaporation-driven additional features like eddy transports of

meso-scale downdrafts as well as meso-scale anvil momentum and vorticity. However, the following

up drafts occurring in association with remarks are relevant here :

cumulonimbus convection. a) One has to be careful in respect of time and

Fritsch and Chappel (1980) included both cost of computation. Some parameterization

convective updrafts and downdrafts in their model. schemes can prove too time-consuming and also

Both were one-dimensional entraining plumes. too costly.

Convective mass flux was determined iteratively. b) Even if time and cost of computaion be of

Their formulation is based on the hypothesis that secondary importance for research purposes in

the buoyant energy available to a parcel, in some institutions, reasonable justification must be

combination with prescribed period of time for the given for introducing complicated time-consuming

convection to remove that energy, can be used to parameterization schemes. The justification can be

regulate the convection in a grid-point element of in terms of theoretical reasoning, observational

the meso-scale model. The following were the main evidence or a mixture of both.

assum ptio ns an d con straints of the c) There might be some instances of

parameterization: improvement in the performance of the models

i) Moist convection occurs only when air is thr ou gh introduction of complicated

forced to its level of free convection by low-level parameterization schemes, but verification and

convergence, air mass overturning, or when low- validation of the scheme must be carried out over

level heating and mixing remove any stable layers sufficiently large number of occasions. This is not

suppressing moist convection, i.e. when potential easy to achieve in practice.

buoyant energy becomes available. Synoptic-scale Models

ii) Mass transports by moist convection are We have several parameterization schemes

closely approximated by model cloud ensemble for moist convection in synoptic-scale systems. It is

which treats deep convection as the dominant cloud now believed that moist convection helps the

form. growth of synoptic-scale systems in both tropics

iii) Precipitation efficiency of the convective and extra-tropics. Intense moist convection can

clouds is related to the vertical wind shear across produce layer-type (thick cirrostratus, thick

the cloud depth. altostratus or thick nimbo-stratus) or towering

iv) There is a prescribed period of time for the cumulus and cumulonimbus-type clouds. In

convection to remove available buoyant energy general, both of these clouds occur in combination

(ABE) from a grid-point element and to stabilize it. in all latitudes. However, it is presently believed

The stabilization rate (removal of available buoyant that towering cumulonimbus clouds dominate the

e ne r gy ) is n um e ric a lly g iven b y the tropical regions and layer-type clouds dominate the

model-generated ABE divided by the estimated extra-tropical regions. Hence, for tropical regions,

time for the convective cells to move across the the parameterization schemes are generally for

grid-element. cumulus-type convection.

v) The changes in the temperature and mixing In literature, one comes across a wide

ratio at a grid-point are the net effects of variety of tropical cumulus convection type

compensating subsidence in the environment and parameterization schemes; almost each author has

area-weighted cloud updrafts, downdrafts and his own scheme. Each author produces a very

environmental advections. limited number of synoptic-scale situations where

vi) Momentum is vertically exchanged through his scheme shows some skill score. It is difficult at

bulk-mixing processes in the cloud updrafts and present to objectively evaluate the relative merits of

downdrafts and compensating environmental these numerous schemes. However, these schemes

7-34 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

generally fall into three broad categories which we and equivalent potential temperature remain

shall briefly describe in the following paragraphs. unchanged during that time-step. The value of the

These three broad categories are : fraction ( 4%) was obtained by Krishnamurti et al.

i) Moist convective adjustment. (1980) by ‘trial and error’ method to get the best fit,

ii) Moisture convergence models. in the root-mean-square sense, between the

iii) Cumulus cloud models. computed and the observed rainfall over GATE

All these models focus their attention on area, during the period between 1 September and 18

arriving at reasonably correct synoptic-scale September 1974. The soft adjustment method is

conditions in respect of temperature, humidity and based mainly on the schemes proposed by Manabe

rainfall. These schemes either give no attention or et al. (1965), Miyakoda et al. (1969) and Kurihara

give very little and inadequate attention to the role (1973). Hard adjustment method over-estimates

of cumulus convection in influencing the rainfall by about one order of magnitude; hence it

momentum and vorticity budgets of large-scale is superceded by soft adjustment method.

systems. The importance of cumulus convection in Moisture Convergence Models

momentum and vorticity budgets of the large-scale This method introduces statistically

systems has been acknowledged only recently. It is averaged influence of cumulus clouds on the

expected that cumulus parameterization schemes temperature and moisture distribution in the vertical

taking proper note of cumulus contributions to column in terms of moisture convergence in the

large-scale momentum and vorticity budgets will vertical column. In their classical paper, Charney

soon appear on the scene. and Eliassen ( 1964) used total moisture

Moist Convective Adjustment convergence in a vertical column to estimate

The technique consists of first predicting the condensational diabatic heating. The vertical

large-scale temperature and moisture for a time step distribution of this diabatic heating was assumed to

∆ t without looking at super-saturation, if any. It is be proportional to the heat released from a parcel of

then examined whether super-saturation has been saturated air ascending moist adiabatically after

reached at a grid point. If super-saturation is not reaching its level of condensation.

reached, no moist convective adjustment is made. This classical paper has been the basis of

If super-saturation has been reached, then the several subsequent parameterization schemes of

excess moisture is taken out as rain from the volume this category (Kuo, 1965, 1974; Ooyama, 1969;

of air represented by that gird point. The excess Anthes, 1977; Krishnamurti et al., 1979, 1980; and

moisture is taken out by condensation isobarically; others). Of all these schemes, Kuo’s (1965, 1974)

the latent heat of condensation is used to warm up scheme has been most widely used along with slight

the air, consistent with the first and second laws of variations. Hence, for illustration, we shall outline

thermodynamics. Care is also taken to avoid Kuo’s parameterization scheme.

unstable lapse rates in the vertical in respect of dry 7.3.1 Kuo’s Parameterization Scheme for Deep

bulb temperature as well as equivalent potential Cumulus Convection :

temperature. In this adjustment, lapse rate of a Kuo (1965) gave parameterization scheme

saturated conditionally unstable layer is adjusted to for deep wet cumulus convection.

neutral lapse rate in a specified time interval which Later, he (Kuo, 1974) gave parameterization

is usually taken to be less than one hour. schemes for both deep wet cumulus convection as

Krishnamurti et al. (1980) tested two well as shallow dry convection; he also gave what

variations of this scheme called "Hard" and he called "a more rigorous derivation" of his

"Soft" convective adjustments. In th e hard parameterization scheme for deep wet convection.

convective adjustment, adjustment was effected Without going into his rigorous derivation, we shall

for the whole volume represented by a grid point; her e hig hlig ht th e main ideas of the

in the soft adjustment, the adjustment was assumed parameterization scheme. Further, we shall not deal

to occur over a small fraction (of the order of 4%) with shallow dry convection but only with deep wet

of the total volume represented by the grid point. convection. Krishnamurti et al. (1983) and several

For the remaining volume of about 96%, it was other authors have introduced slight modifications

assumed that the vertical profiles of temperature into Kuo’s main scheme; but among these

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-35

modifications, we shall confine ourselves to the one where the subscript s denotes saturation (see

given by Krishnamurti et al. (1983). The main ideas Appendix). pT is taken as the top of the cloud (in

of Kuo’s scheme (1965, 1974) including slight fact, by theoretical reasoning, the cloud top would

modification given by Krishnamurti et al. (1983) be higher than the level pT).

are given below : The cloud is considered to have the shape of

1. Many of the large-scale disturbances in the a vertical cylinder.

tropical atmosphere are driven by the release of iii) In this large-scale environment favourable

latent heat in deep cumulus towers and CB clouds. for deep cumulus convection, there is fractional

2. The horizontal scale of cumulus cloud is area "a" in which new clouds get produced

many orders of magnitude smaller than the continuously. This "a" varies in time and from one

horizontal grid scale used in large-scale numerical grid area to another grid area. We take "a" as the

models. rate of production of new cloud area per unit time,

The time-scale of cumulus cloud is also per unit area of horizontal cross-section of the

many orders of magnitude smaller than the large-scale environment.

time-scale of the large-scale motion. 4. This cloud does not stay for long as cloud

The exact location and the exact time of in the environment; it exists only in concept and that

occurrence of the individual clouds are considered too momentarily. This momentary existence is

as unknown from the large-scale point of view. It is followed by immediate dissolution. This concept is

assumed that within the large-scale grid area partly justified on the ground that the life-period of

(∆x.∆y) and the time step ∆τ used in a numerical an individual cloud is small compared to the

model, the individual clouds are randomly life-period of the synoptic scale system.

distributed, such that we can handle the clouds 5. In the vertical column between levels pB

inside the area (∆x.∆y) during the time- interval ∆τ and pT there is the large-scale supply of moisture I

collectively in a statistical way. Correspondingly, given by

in the prognostic and diagnostic equations of the pT

∂ dp

I = ∫ ⎧⎨⎩⋅(q V)+ (q ω) ⎫⎬⎭

model, one will have to consider non-linear eddy pB ∂ p g

terms. These eddy terms will be expressed in

terms of the mean values of the meteorological

parameters applicable to the grid area (∆x.∆y) and 1 pB

⎧ ∂ ⎫

the time-interval ∆ τ .

= −

g ∫p ⎨⋅(q V)+∂p (q ω) ⎬ dp 7.3(1a)

T ⎩ ⎭

3. Deep convection takes place in that region

of the atmosphere which satisfies the two In addition to this supply through large-scale

conditoins : convergence of horizontal and vertical moisture

i) Atmosphere is convectively unstable. flux, there is also supply of moisture through

ii) The flow has low-level horizontal convergence of moisture flux by small-scale eddies,

moisture-flux convergence. which supply is not directly derivable from

These two conditions ensure that there is large-scale flow parameters. Krishnamurti et al.

large-scale vertical upward motion which lifts the (1983) denote this supply by ηI ; this η is to be

surface air to its condensation level and then to assigned a plausible value through consideration of

trigger the release of convective instability. Let pB its effect on large-scale environment as deduced

denote the lifting condensation level for the surface from analysis of observations. Hence, the total

air; this is taken as the base of the deep convective supply of moisture through large-scale motion and

cloud. Let pT be the pressure where the moist small-scale eddies is (1+η)I.

adiabat from the condensation level cuts the 6. This total supply of moisture per unit

enviro nm ental temp erature curve on a horizontal area, per unit time, is partitioned into two

thermodynamic (T-Φ) diagram. This moist adiabat components :

is given by i) (1+η)Iq; this part of moisture is imagined to

be used in moistening the environment through

∂ dissolution of the cloud immediately after its

⎛ C T +g z+L qs ⎞=0

∂p ⎝ p s ⎠ production.

7-36 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

ii) (1+η) Iθ; this part of moisture is supposed partitioned in the ratio b : (1-b) for moistening and

to be used in increasing the temperature of the warming of the environment, i.e.

environment through dissolution of the cloud aq Qq = (1+η) I b 7.3(4a)

immediately after its production.

aθ Qθ = (1+η) I (1−b) 7.3(4b)

I=Iq+Iθ

Rainfall rate R is given by that part of the

(1+η)I=(1+η)Iq+(1+η)Iθ 7.3(1b)

moisture supply which warms the environment and

The moist-adiabatic thermodynamic process falls down as precipitation.

by which, part of the moisture goes for moistening ∴R=(1+η)I(1−b) 7.3(4c)

and part for warming the environment, is explained

in Appendix to this section. η and b are the two parameters which need to be

In this parameterization scheme, vertical determined. At present, there is no theoretical

distributions of moistening and of warming at any formulation to give the values of η and b.

level are supposed to be proportional to Krish nam ur ti et al. (1983) adopted an

empirical-cum-statistical method to assign

qs−q θs−θ reasonable values to η and b.

and respectively where ∆τ is Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977, personal

∆τ ∆τ

cloud time-scale parameter. The total supply of communication to Krishnamurti et al., 1983) had

moisture and heat to the vertical cloud column is analysed GATE B-scale data sets for 18 day-period

distributed at different levels, in proportion to the 1-18 September 1974, 4 times a day. Thus, there

values of these vertical structure functions. were 72 map times of data sets. The heating rates,

7. The moisture supplied to the vertical moistening rates and rainfall rates were obtained

column is assumed to affect potential temperature from these data sets.

θ and specific humidity q of the environment as It was further assumed by Krishnamurti et

shown in the following two equations : al. (1983) that the moistening rate and the warming

rate, thr ou gh their rep resentation by

∂θ ∂θ ⎛ θs−θ ∂θ ⎞ (1+η) b and (1+η)(1−b) respectively, may be

+ V⋅ θ+ω =aθ ⎜ +ω ⎟ 7.3(2a)

∂t ∂p ⎝ ∆τ ∂p ⎠ considered as related to two large-scale flow

parameters : __

∂q ⎛ qs−q ⎞

+V⋅ q = aq ⎜ ⎟ 7.3(2b) i) Vertically averaged vertical velocity ω, and

∂t ⎝ ∆τ ⎠

where aθ and aq are proportionality factors assumed ii) 700 mb(hPa) relative vorticity ζ.

to be independent of pressure; these may vary in They assumed a multi-linear regression

time. relationship

__ between η and b on one side and ζ

We define the two functions Qθ and Qq by and ω on the other side in the form

__

Cp pB T ⎛ θs−θ ∂θ ⎞ (1+η) b=a1 ζ+b1 ω+c1

Qθ = ∫ ⎜

g L pT θ ⎝ ∆ τ

+ ω ⎟ dp

∂p ⎠

7.3(3a)

__

and(1+η) (1− b)=a2 ζ+b2 ω+c2

pB q −q __

Qq =

1

g ∫p s

∆τ

dp 7.3(3b) i.e.η=⎧⎨(a1+a2) ζ+(b1+b2) ω+(c1+c2)⎫⎬−1

⎩ ⎭

T

7.3(5a)

Then moisture supply aθ Qθ goes to warm __

a1 ζ+b1 ω+c1

the vertical column and aqQq goes to moisten the and b = __

(a1+a2) ζ+(b1+b2) ω+(c1+c2)

vertical column. Rainfall rate R is given by

7.3(5b)

Cp pB T ⎛ θs−θ ∂θ ⎞

R= ∫ aθ ⎜

g L pT θ ⎝ ∆ τ

+ω ⎟dp

∂p ⎠

7.3(3c) The regression coefficients were determined

by statistical least-square fit method, using the

8. Now the total moisture supply (1+η)I is empirical data of Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977),

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-37

Cp× temperature g × height

parcel hum. Static Energy

⎧ g L ∆ q⎫

Cp ⎨(T + ∆ T) − ∆z+

Cp ⎬⎭

Cp (T+∆T ) + gz +L(q +

New ( z + ∆z) ⎩ Cp g(z + ∆z) Lq

∆q)

Cp (T+∆T ) + gz + L ( q

Old (z) Cp ( T + ∆ T ) gz L(q + ∆q)

+ ∆q )

and got the values : the environment and the rainfall rate are both

proportional to (1+η) (1-b). In both these schemes

a1 = 0.158 × 10 s5

a2 = 0.107 × 105s

of Kuo (1974) and Krishnamurti et al. (1983), (1+η)

b1 = 0.304 × 103 mb-1s b2 = 0.107 × 103 mb-1s (1-b) is having approximately the same value, 1.0.

Hence, the warming rate and rainfall rate by both

c1 = 0.476 c2=0.870

the schemes would be approximately the same. But

(dimensionless) (dimensionless)

the moistening of the environment by the scheme of

7.3(5c)

Kuo (1974) would be less than the moistening by

From the experiments of Krishnamurti et al. the scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983), except

(1983), it appears reasonable, for the present at through strong vertical diffusion of moisture.

least, to adopt these values of regression Experiments with Kuo (1974) scheme and with

coefficients in the modified Kuo’s scheme of deep Krishnamurti et al. (1983) scheme suggest that the

cumulus parameterization, in other tropical regions atmosphere shows results closer to those given by

also, including India (Keshavamurty and Sawant, the scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983).

1989, personal communication). Appendix

9. The steps for calculating, from large-scale Moist Adiabatic Process

parameters, the rates of heating, moistening and Let a saturated air parcel at pressure p+∆ p,

rainfall due to deep moist convection are given height z, temperature (T+∆ T) and specific humidity

below : (q+∆q) rise up to level p, (height z+ ∆z) moist

i) Determine Qθ from Eq. 7.3(3a) and Qq from adiabatically. The parcel remains saturated at level

Eq. 7.3(3b). p, height ( z+ ∆ z ), has temperature less than

ii) Assuming the values of regression (T+ ∆ T ) and specific humidity which is less than

coefficients given by (q+ ∆ q ) but is yet saturated. The parcel has lost

Eq. 7.3(5c), calculate the values of η and b moisture quantity ∆q. This is the amount of water

given by Eq. 7.3(5a and 5b). Use these values of η vapour which has condensed and precipitated out,

and b and also already calculated values of Qq and down towards the ground. Latent heat released

Qθ to determine aq and aθ from Eqs. 7.3(4a, 4b and during condensation is L∆q. This process can be

1a). imagined to consist of three parts :

iii) Warming rate for environment is given by i) In moving up through differential ∆ p, the

Eq. 7.3(2a). Moistening rate for environment is parcel moved dry adiabatically through height

given by Eq. 7.3(2b). Rainfall rate R is given by Eq. ∆ z=⎪∆ p⎪ / gρ. It cooled dry adiabatically by

7.3(3c). g g ⎪∆ p⎪ ⎪∆ p⎪

∆ z= =

10. From the experiments performed by Cp Cp g ρ ρ Cp

Krishnamurti et al. (1983), they got the values in the ii) Water vapour ∆ q condensed and released

neighbourhood of η = 0.4 and b = 0.3. Hence, (1+η) latent heat L ∆ q. This latent heat warmed up the air

(1-b) = 0.98. L∆q

As stated earlier, Krishnamurti et al. (1983) parcel by temperature so that the temperature

Cp

had extended the parameterization scheme of Kuo at the level z +∆z becomes

(1974). The latter would be a special case of the

extended scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983) if ⎧ g L ∆ q⎫

⎨(T+∆ T)− C ∆ z+ C ⎬.

we put η = 0 and b = 0 hence (1+η) (1-b ) = 1.0. ⎩ p p ⎭

It would be appreciated that the warming of

7-38 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

In going through this process, the moist Part IV, Lord et al. ( January 1982)

static energy components of the parcel at the Part I gives the core theory of the scheme

original level and the new level are as shown in explaining several approximations and also giving

table below. 200 equations ( 158 in the main paper and 42 in the

The moist static energy of the parcel Appendix).

remains constant; in fact, this property gives the Part II can be divided into 3 sections :

equation of moist adiabat. i) Summary of core theory in the form of 10

When the cloud amount a dissolves and equations and 3 schematic-diagrams.

mixes with the environment, then the amount of ii) Calculation of Cloud Work Function from

moisture added to the environment is proportional observations at tropical and some sub-tropical

to a(qs-q). This quantity depends on the humidity locations.

of the environment rather than on the amount of iii) Cloud Work Function is shown to be a

rainfall which has gone down towards the ground. nearly-universal function of cloud depth.

We can thus treat the amount of moisture which Part III is important in 2 respects :

goes into moistening the environment as almost a) Varification of the model is given against

independent of the amount of moisture which after the observed data from phase III of GATE, using a

condensation falls as rain to the ground. However, semi-prognostic approach.Actual and

it is to be borne in mind that the amount of diabatic model-calculated rates of precipitation are shown to

heating which is released in the atmosphere is agree pretty well.

entirely due to the amount of rainfall. b) Sensitivity experiments were performed to

Temperature T and specific humidity q of show little effect of changing the seemingly

the large-scale environment increase due to cloud arbitrary values of some of the parameters and

formation and cloud dissolution. This can happen assumptions occurring in the scheme.

only so long as the whole environment is not filled Part IV gives numerical analogue of the

with cumulus cloud (a < 1). When the environment who le scheme of parameterization for

is totally filled with cloud (a=1), then T and q have incorporation into an NWP model.

reached their maximum values of Ts and qs given We shall briefly outline the basic concepts

by the moist adiabat. No further increase of and formulations in Arakawa-Schubert scheme

temperature and humidity can result from which have been subsequently elaborated or

additional accession of moisture and condensation verified by Lord and others.

unless there is change of condensation level to a Towards the end of this Section 7.3, we also

new condensation level having higher values of Ts indicate extension of this Arakawa-Schubert

and qs even though latent heat of condensation is Scheme by Cheng and Arakawa (1990, 1992). This

still being released; rainfall will continue to be extension emphasizes the role of downdrafts and

copious without change of T and q at any level. presents a combined updraft-downdraft model,

7.3.2 Arakawa-Schubert Scheme for Cumulus which can b e inco rp or ated into the

Parameterization : Arakawa-Schubert Scheme given in parts I to IV

At the time of writing, this scheme is above.

considered to be the best in terms of Physics and 1. Cloud Ensemble

Dynamics of the cloud system in relation to It is visualised that at a level between the

large-scale synoptic system. At the same time, it is cloud base and the cloud top, there is an ensemble

regarded to be somewhat too complicated and of clouds, each cloud having its own entrainment

time-consuming in NWP modelling of the rate and its own flux of mass at the base. All the

synoptic-scale systems. clouds in the ensemble are imagined to have the

The scheme has appeared in literature in same cloud base but different cloud tops. The area

four parts in J. Atmos. Sciences : occupied by this cloud ensemble is sufficiently

Part I, Arakawa & Schubert ( April 1974) large so as to include all clouds in various stages of

Part II, Lord & Arakawa ( December growth and life-cycle; but the area occupied by the

1980) cloud ensemble is considered to be small compared

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-39

effet of cumulus convection is being parameterized.

2. Cloud Sub-ensemble

MZ= ∫ λ=0

mZ ( λ )d λ 7.3(10)

The cloud ensemble consists of It is assu med that for any given

sub-ensembles. It is assumed that the members of a thermodynamic structure of the environment,

cloud sub-ensemble are at random phases in their fractional entrainment rate λ determines all the

life-cycle; the summation of a cloud property over properties of the cloud sub-ensemble represented

all members of the sub-ensemble is proprotional to by λi in the interval (λ , λ + d λ). The properties are

the property of a single cloud averaged over its :

entire life-time, the constant of proportionality i) Level of cloud top.

being the number of clouds. ii) Vertical mass flux at any level including the

Let λ be a parameter which characterises a level of the cloud base zB

cloud type. Let λ be such that the entire ensemble iii) Buoyancy of air inside the cloud.

is covered when λ takes positive values between iv) Speed of updraft inside the cloud.

zero and λmax. Then the interval (λ , λ + d λ) v) Work done by buoyancy force.

denotes a cloud sub-ensemble. vi) Rate of precipitation.

Let mz denote the mass flux across a cloud vii) Total mass of cloud air detrained at its top.

sub -ensemble at level z. Then fr actional viii) Rate at which cloud processes destroy

1 ∂m z convective instability of the environment.

entrainment rate is given by . Arakawa and Hence, every thermodynamic structure of

m z ∂z

the environment has its own cloud ensemble with

Schubert defined determinate cloud properties including the rate of

1 ∂mz precipitation and also the rate at which cloud

λ= 7.3(6)

m z ∂z processes reduce the convective instability of the

Larger values of λ denote larger rates of environment.

dilution of the air inside the cloud sub-ensemble 3. Cloud-Work Function A ( λ )

and hence smaller depths and lower cloud tops for Cloud-Work Function is the work done by

the sub-ensemble. buoyancy force, between the level of the cloud base

It is assumed that for a given sub-ensemble, and the level of zero buoyancy,per unit mass flux at

λ is constant with height z. A sub-ensemble is the cloud base, per unit time. It is denoted by

zt

__

∫ η (z , λ) T_ g(z)

distinguished from other sub-ensembles by the

value of its fractional entrainment rate λ. A (λ) = ⎧

⎨

⎩

Tvc (z , λ) − Tv (z) ⎫

⎬

⎭

dz

zB

Since λ is constant with height, the vertical

distribution of mz (λ) is immediately given by, 7.3(11)

zt is the level of zero buoyancy; it is

mz (λ)=mB (λ) eλ (z − zB)≡mB (λ) η (z , λ) 7.3(7) sometimes called as cloud top. Tvc is the virtual

__

temperature of the cloud air; Tv is the virtual

η( z , λ )≡eλ (z − zB) 7.3(8)

temperature of the environment. A (λ) is an

Here mB (λ) denotes the mass flux at the

important parameter in the Arakawa-Schubert

base of the cloud sub-ensemble; η ( z , λ ) gives scheme of the cloud parameterization. In particular:

vertical distribution of mz. i) It is a property of the environment for a

Total mass flux MB into the cloud ensemble specified value of λ

at the cloud base level zB is given by, ii) It is the rate of generation of kinetic energy

λmax of vertical motion.

MB= ∫ λ=0

mB ( λ ) d λ 7.3(9) iii) Positive values of A (λ) indicate presence

of moist convective instability in the environment.

Total mass flux Mz across level z inside the 4. Reduction of Convective Instability

cloud ensemble is given by Cumulus convection tends to destroy

convective instability of the environment through

7-40 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

subsidence outside the cloud in the following way : large-scale upward vertical motion is believed to be

i) Subsidence warms the environment and the most important element affecting the

hence reduces the buoyancy of the cloud updraft. environment and increasing convective instability,

ii) Subsidence dries the environment in the increasing A (λ), increasing the depth of PBL and

lower and the middle levels of the layer in which decreasing the static stability of the atmosphere. In

cloud exists. Arakawa-Schubert Scheme, the total contribution

iii) Subsidence outside the cloud pushes down of large-scale process is to increase A (λ) and this

the top of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). effect is represented through the equation

iv) Subsidence outside the cloud reduces the ⎡d ⎤

influx of saturated air into the cloud base. ⎢ d t A ( λ ) ⎥ =F ( λ ) 7.3(13)

⎣ ⎦L S

Just as buoyancy is counted as the property

of convectively unstable environment, so also, 7. Quasi-stationary Assumption about A (λ)

subsidence outside the cloud can be counted as a Cloud-Cloud interaction represented by

λmax

∫

property of the cloud, reducing the convective

instability of the environment. It also reduces the K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′ reduces the value of A

0

buoyancy and kinetic energy of the cloud updraft.

(λ). Large-scale processes represented by F(λ)

Its function is opposite to that of buoyancy. Like A

increase the value of A(λ). Now, Arakawa-

(λ), one can define D (λ) as the rate of destruction Schubert Scheme makes an important assumption

of convective instability, in a form analogous to A and uses it as the mathematical basis of the scheme.

(λ), but performing opposite function. It assumes that the negative contribution of

5. Influence of Cloud-Cloud Interaction on A cloud-cloud interaction exactly balances the

(O) positive contribution of F (λ).

By tending to destroy the instability of the In other words,

cloud-free environment, each cloud is reducing the λmax

buoyancy of itself and also of other clouds.

Let K ( λ , λ′) represent the rate of

∫

0

K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0 7.3(14)

increase of kinetic energy of vertical motion of the This equation helps to make a closed scheme of

cloud - type λ due to the influence of the other parameterization such that the mutual interaction

cloud-type λ′. This will be negative. mB (λ′) which between the environment and cloud ensemble is

is the rate of mass flux at the base of the cloud-type taken care of, in terms of the original prognostic set

λ′ is +ve . Hence, ⎧⎨K (λ , λ′)mB (λ′)⎫⎬ is -ve. of equations for the large-scale environment. In this

⎩ ⎭

Arakawa-Schubert Scheme puts sense, Equation 7.3(14) is also called the closure

condition.

λmax Justification for this assumption of

⎡ d ⎤

⎢ dt A (λ) ⎥ =

⎣ ⎦C

∫ 0

K ( λ , λ′ ) mB ( λ′ )d λ′ quasi-balance between opposing influences on the

environment in terms of A (λ) is given on the

7.3(12) following lines :

The effect of cloud-cloud interaction is to The period of a synoptic-scale system for

reduce the convective instability of the environment which the parameterization scheme is devised is of

and hence to reduce A (λ) of the environment. the order of a few days. The interval of time for

K ( λ , λ′) is called the kernel. which this assumption of quasi-balance is made is

6. Influence of Large-scale Processes on A (λ) small, of the order of half an hour. We can assume

Large-Scale processes other than clouds quasi-equilibrium state of the synoptic-scale system

influence the convective instability of the for such a small interval of time. Assuming

atmosphere through diabatic heating including quasi-equilibrium state of the large-scale

radiation, through horizontal advection, large-scale environment for a small interval of time, we

upward motion, etc. Some of these processes may calculate the change which will occur in the

increase the convective instability of the large-scale environment during this first small

atmosphere and some may decrease it. The interval of time; incorporate this change in the

large-scale environment at the end of the first small

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-41

time interval, get the new parameters for the First Kind :

changed large-scale environment; again work out b

the change which will occur in this environment ∫aK (x , y)f (y)d y=g (x) 7.3(18)

over the second small interval of time, introduce the

change in the environment and go over the third Second Kind :

b

∫aK (x , y)f (y)d y=µ g (x)+f (x)

small interval of time, and so on. It is like using a

forward time-differencing scheme. 7.3(19)

8. Calculation of K O , Oc

K is known and is called Kernel. f is

λmax unknown and is to be found; µ and g are known.

⎡d ⎤

i) ⎢ A (λ) ⎥ =

⎣ d t ⎦C

∫ 0

K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′

11. Schematic Diagram

Fig. 7.3 (1) is a schematic diagram

_ _ of a part

of the parameterization Scheme. T and q denote

j = imax the values of temperature and specific humidity of

i.e. A (i)t + ∆t−A (i) =∑K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) ∆ t

⎧

⎨

⎫

t⎬⎭

the synoptic-scale environment at time t. From

⎩

j=i these parameters, one can get λ and A (λ).

7.3(15) i) E f fect of La rge-scale Processes on

ii) Take small arbitrary values for mB(j) and ∆t ; for Environment :

Choose a small time interval ∆ t′ and

convenience of numerical calculation, let mB(j)∆t

calculate changes_ in temperature

_ and specific

= Constant . By using the set of equations given in

humidity and get T and q at time t + ∆ t". From

the original text (Arakawa and Schubert,1974), find

the value of these, calculate λ and A (λ) at time t +∆ t′ . The time

rate of change of A (λ) gives F (λ) , i.e. F(i).

K (i , j)=⎧⎨⎩A (i)t + ∆ t − A (i)t⎫⎬⎭/ mB(j) ∆ t 7.3(16) ii) Effect of Cloud-Cloud Interaction on

Environment :

for each value of j i.e. the change in cloud work Similarly, calculate changes in

fu nctio n o f the i-th sub-ensemble due to temperature and specific humidity in small time

modification of the large-scale environment by j-th interval ∆ t ′′ due to cloud-cloud

_ _ interaction. For

sub-ensemble, per unit mass flux mB(j), per unit the changed values of T and q , calculate λ and A

time. (λ) at time t +∆ t ′′ . From the time rate change of

9. Calculation of F(λ) A (λ) due to cloud-cloud interaction, find

⎡d ⎤ K (λ , λ′),i.e.K (i , j) .

i) ⎢ A (λ)⎥ =F (λ)

⎣ d t ⎦LS iii) For these given values of F ( i ) and K(i

, j ), solve Fredholm’s integral equation :

λmax

F (i)=⎧⎨⎩ A (i)t + ∆ t−A (i)t⎫⎬⎭/∆ t

∫λ′

7.3(17)

K (λ , λ′)mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0

ii) By using the set of equations given in the

original text (Arakawa and Schubert, 1974), imax

calculate F(i) , the effect of large-scale processes on

7.3(20)

large-scale environment, in particular, in changing ⎣ ⎦

j=1

A (i); ∆t 30 minutes is acceptable.

10. Calculation of mB (λ′) In other words, for a particular i, given F(i)

In integral form, we have to solve and K ( i , j ) for j = 1,2,3,......,imax, find the set of

Fredholm’s Integral Equation of first kind values mB ( j ) for j = 1,2,3,...., imax

λmax 12. Some Sub-problems

∫λ′ = 0K (λ , λ′)m B (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0 We shall now outline some of the

sub-problems of the Arakawa-Schubert Scheme,

under the condition that mB(λ′) is positive. In also using some numbers in place of symbols i and

passing, it may be mentioned that there are two j when useful for fixing the ideas.

kinds of Fredholm’s Integral euqations :

7-42 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

FIG. 7.3(1) : Schematic diagram for determining K ( λ , λ′ ), F(λ) &mB(λ′ ) (Asnani, 1993).

b) Using this guess value

Given distribution of T and q , h ow to vertical distribution of T and q, calculate the

calculate λi ?

level of zero buoyancy. Let it come as p^^ i

Ans.

i) Specify sub-ensemble λi by pressure level c) If ^p

^ < p^i , increase λi by a small amount.

i

of zero buoyancy, p^i. _This can

_ be calculated from If ^^p i > p^i , decrease λi by a small amount.

given distribution of T and q . We may call this as

(Larger value of λ will give smaller height and

pressure of cloud-top of sub-ensemble λi. Equating

the level of zero buoyancy to cloud top level larger pressure value of cloud-top).

d) Go to step (b) and calculate new value of

implies that detrainment takes place in a thin layer

^^p for new value of λ Go to step (c).

around this level, because level of zero buyoyancy i i.

is the level of maximum upward velocity. e) Use this iterative process till you get proper

ii) To get the correct value of λi for a given

p^i, adopt the following iterative process :

λi such that ⎪ p^^ i = p^ i⎪ for all practical purposes

a) Assume a guess value of λi i.e. ⎪ p^ i − p^^ i ⎪ is smaller than some specified

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-43

small quantity. This gives mutually compatible in and near the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean

values of λi and ^p i for any given vertical Sea (Nunez and Gray, 1977) for the 14-year period

_ 1961-74.

−

distribution of T and q For each of these data sets, Lord and

. Arakawa drew the graph of A(λ) versus cloud-top

Sub-problem II : pressure. All the graphs showed great similarity,

− _ suggesting something like a universal relationship

Given T , q , λ and p how to get A (λ)?

between A(λ) and λ, the latter being represented by

Ans. cloud-top pressure p^. This type of universal

zt relatio nsh ip gives a good support to

−

A (λ)= ∫z η (z , λ) T

g ⎧ ⎫

− ( z) ⎨⎩Tvc(z , λ) − Tv (z)⎬⎭ d z

Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of parameterization.

We may here remind ourselves that while A(λ) is

B

calculated from formula 7.3 (11) from the vertical

Lord and Arakawa (1980) chose cloud-top − _

pressure to denote a cloud sub-ensemble. For each distribution of T and q of the environment, the

value of cloud-top, they calculated corresponding Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of Parameterization

value of λ. Field observations directly give further assumes quasi-stationarity of A(λ) over

cloud-tops and vertical distribution of and q bar small intervals of time of the order of 30 minutes.

and not λ . For this type of data set, it is possible to This additional property of universal relationship

calculate λ corresponding to each cloud -top. Lord between λ and A(λ) in situations widely-separated

and Arakawa (1980) chose the following 17 values both in space and time, lend some additional

for cloud-top pressure (mb, hPa) to identify 17 support for taking A(λ) as a basic parameter in the

cloud sub-ensembles : parameterization scheme.

100, 150,200,250, 300, 350, 400, 450, 500, Fig. 7.3 (2) shows the relationship between

550, 600, 650, 700, 750, 800, 850, 912.5 mb (hPa). fractional entrainment rate λ and A(λ) for the

For all these cloud-tops, the base of the cloud was GATE dataset. For the other 6 data sets analysed by

taken to be 950mb. Corresponding to these 17 Lord and Arakawa (1980), the distributions were

values of cloud-tops, they calculated λ and A(λ) for similar to this in many respects. Fig 7.3 (3) shows

− _ the relationship between fractional entrainment rate

different, vertical distributions of T and q. For

− _ and cloud-top pressure for the GATE data. This

observations of p^ ,T and q , they took 7 different diagram enables the transformation of x-axis from

locations and synoptic conditions in the tropics cloud-top pressure to fractional entrainment rate

and sub-tropics. The 7 locations were : and vice-versa. Fig. 7.3 (4) shows the distribution

i) The Marshall Islands data set from 15 of cloud-work function A(λ) versus cloud-top

April to 22 July 1956 (Yanai et al. 1973, 1976). pressure for the 4 data sets of Marshall Islands,

ii) VIMHEX data set over north-central VIMHEX,GATE and AMTEX, taken from Lord

Venezuela from 22 May to 6 Sep 1972 (Betts and and Arakawa(1980).

Miller, 1975). Sub-problem III :

iii) GATE data set from 31 August to 18 − _

September 1974 (Thompson et al., 1979). Given T , q , λ , p^ (λ), and A(λ) ; how to

iv) AMTEX data set from 14 to 28 February get K (λ , λ′ )andF (λ) ?

1974 and 14 to 28 February 1975 (Nitta,1976). Ans.

v) Mean West Indies Tropical Sounding for

λmax

hurricane season July to October for 10-year period

1946-1955 (Jordan,1958).

i)

d

dt

A (λ)= ∫′

λ =0

K (λ , λ′ ) mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)

vi) Composited Northwest Pacific Typhoon

data set from mean soundings for 10-year period ii) Specify all possible discrete values of λ .

1961-70, given by Frank(1977). As already stated, Lord and Arakawa (1980) chose

vii) Composited West Indies Hurricane data set 17 values for p^ . Corresponding to these 17 values

based on observations at coastal and island stations of p^, they calculated 17 values of λ and A(λ) for

7-44 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

_ _

given vertical distribution of T and q . The set of 17

values completely defines the cloud-ensemble.

Sub-ensemble λ≡ i , sub-ensemble λ′==j ;i,

j=1,2,3,........,17.

iii) Choose a particular value of i, say i = 3.

j = 17

d

A (3)=∑K (3 , j)mB (j)+F (3)

dt

j=1

iv) For the moment, consider changes in

A(3) due to cloud-cloud interaction only.

a) Choose a small time interval ∆ t ′′.

j = 17 FIG. 7.3(3) : Relationship between fractional entrainment

rate λ (10−2 km−1) and cloud top pressure p^ (mb) for

A (3)t + ∆ t′′−A (3)t=∑K (3 , j)mB (j)∆ t ′′

GATE data set (Lord & Arakawa, 1980; Asnani, 1993).

j=1

amount of mass flux at cloud base mB′′ (1), of cloud

sub-ensemble 1.

Calculate ⎧⎨⎩ A (3)t + ∆t ′′−A (3)t⎫⎬⎭ due to mB′′

(1). Then

K (3 , 1)=⎧⎨⎩A (3)t + ∆t ′′−A (3)t⎫⎬⎭/mB′′ (1) ∆ t ′′ 7.3(21)

K(3,2),K(3,3),....,K(3,17).

v) Now consider change in A(3) due to

large-scale processes only. Choose a small time

interval ∆ t ′.

FIG. 7.3(4) : Relationship between cloud top pressure p^

F (3)= A (3)t + ∆ t ′− A (3)t /∆ t ′ (mb) and cloud work function A (λ) (J kg−1) for 4 data

⎧ ⎫

⎨

⎩

⎬

⎭

7.3(22)

sets. Mean values and one standard deviation from mean

Sub-problem IV : value are shown on the two sides of the mean value. (Lord

− _ and Arakawa, 1980; Asnani, 1993).

Given T , q , λ , p^ (3), A(3), F(3), K(3,1),

K(3,2), K(3,3),......, K(3,17); how to get mB(1),

mB(2), mB(3),.......,mB(17)?

Ans.

i) Using the assumption of quasi-stationarity

of A (3) over small interval of time ( 30 minutes),

we have to solve the equation

j = 17

j=1

or

λmax

∫λ′ = 0K (λ , λ′ ) m B (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0

FIG. 7.3(2) : Relationship between fractional entrainment

rate λ (10−2 km −1) and cloud work function A(λ) (J kg−1) Under the condition that mB(λ′) is positive.

for GATE data set (Lord & Arakawa, 1980; Asnani, K(3,1) mB(1) + K(3,2) mB (2) +K(3,3) mB(3)

1993).

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-45

When mB(λ′) is zero or negative, that cloud iii) Quantitative precipitation forecasting

sub-ensemble is supposed not to exist. (QPF) is major problem in tropical forecasting. The

ii) In this equation, K(3,1), K(3,2), K(3,3),...., results of QPF for GATE area presented by Lord

K(3,17) and F(3) are known. But the 17 quantities (1982) are quite impressive. The technique

mB(1), mB(2), mB(3),....,mB(17) are unknown. To deserved to be tested for more occasions in different

get these 17 unknowns, we write 17 linear tropical locations. In the process of testing, some

inhomogeneous equations in these unknowns : simplifications may also suggest themselves for

K(1,1) mB(1) + K (1,2) mB(2) + K(1,3) mB(3) + adoption.

..............+ K(1,17) mB(17) + F(1) = 0 For Indian region, calculations of Cloud Work

K (2,1) mB (1) + K(2,2) mB (2) + K (2,3) mB(3) + Function had been presented by Rama Varma Raja

..............+K(2,17) mB(17) + F(2) = 0 (1994, 1996, 1999).

. Combined Updraft-Downdraft Model :

. Arakawa-Schubert model described above

. does not include convective downdrafts, which are

. important components of tropical convective cloud

K(17,1) mB(1) + K(17,2) mB(2) + K(17,3) mB(3)+ systems; convective updrafts are, however,

...............+ K(17,17) mB(17) + F(17) =0 included explicitly.

7.3(24). Strength of updrafts in these convective

cloud systems is intimately related to their tilt in the

iii) These 17 linear equations in 17 unknowns vertical, the height of cloud tops and the amount of

are solved by standard methods. rainwater in the clouds. Cheng (1989 a,b)

iv) Lord (1982) suggestted simplex linear emphasized the role of downdrafts and presented a

programming algorithm for solving these 17 linear combined updraft-downdraft spectral cumulus

inhomogeneous equations subject to the condition ensemble model, which can be incorporated into the

that mB(j) are non-negative. This algorithm is Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization

further explained in the paper by Lord et al. (1982), scheme given above.

which forms part IV of the Arakawa-Schubert Cheng and Yanai (1989) further utilized

Scheme. this combined updraft-downdraft model to study

Sub-problem V_ : _ the effects of meso-scale convective system on the

Given T , q , λ , p^ ( λ ) , A ( λ ) , K(λ, λ′) , F (λ) heat and moisture budgets of larger-scale tropical

and mB (λ′) ; how to get the rate of precipitation and cloud clusters, using the GATE Phase III data. They

_ _

the rates of change of T and q ? concluded that the inclusion of convective

Ans. downdrafts resulted in warming and drying in the

i) Obtaining of mB(λ′) elements is a major upper troposphere, and cooling and moistening in

step which has been explained in Sub-problem IV. the lower troposphere.

After mB(λ′) elements are determined, the Cheng and Arakawa (1990) described in

calculations for the_ rate _of precipitation and the detail, the incorporation of Cheng’s (1989 a,b)

rates of change of T and q of the environment are model into Arakawa-Schubert’s original model.

This incorporation necessitated slight modification

relatively simple and straightforward. The steps for

in the definition of cloud work function originally

these calculations are explained by Lord (1982) and

given by Arakawa and Schubert (1974).

Lord et al. (1982). Readers may refer to these

However, they found that this revision made

original papers for details of calculation. In these

no significant difference in the normalised cloud

papers, the authors have also compared their model

work function (Cheng and Arakawa, 1992).

results with observations during Phase III of GATE,

1-18 Sep ’74. Cheng and Arakawa (1992) also made

ii) The aim of presenting Arakawa-Schubert semi-prognostic tests (one-step predictions) with

Scheme here has been to make the outline of their updraft-only model and updraft-downdraft model

approach clear to the reader, as far as possible. The in the UCLA General Circulation model, using data

explanation of the scheme is otherwise spread over set of GATE Phase III.

7-46 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

i) Both the models predict cumulus heating relative to the cloud.

profiles which agree amongst themselves and also uc

with the actual atmospheric conditions. Then, tan θ =

Wc

ii) The updraft-only model tends to

where θ is the angle between the updraft

over-estimate the cumulus drying rates throughout and the vertical direction.

the entire cloud layer. On the other hand, the (iv) Horizontal and vertical components of

updraft-downdraft model predicts the cumulus

velocity of rain drops ur and wr are given by

drying effects reasonably well.

ur = uc

iii) With their computer code in use, the

wr = wc-Vt

inclusion of the downdrafts slowed down the entire

where Vt is the mean terminal fall velocity

General Circulation computation by a factor of 2.8

of raindrop given by Soong and Ogura (1973, J.

Atmos. Sci., 30, 879-893):

Further work done on Arakawa-Schubert 1⁄2

Vt = 36.34 (ρ^ q )0.1364 ⎜ o ⎟

r ms−1

In a series of three papers published in J. ⎝ρ

^⎠

Atmos. Sci., 1 June 1989, Cheng and Yanai have q r = rainwater-mixing ratio

emphasized that a parameterization scheme should

involve not only thermodynamic features as done in

the Arakawa-Schubert scheme, but also dynamic ρ^ = density of updraft air

features like Vertical Wind Shear. The three papers

ρo = density of air at ground level

are :

(i) Effects of downdrafts and Mesoscale

(v) The updraft tilting angle can be

convective organization on the heat and moisture

interpreted as the angle required to maintain updraft

budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Part I: A

buoyancy against loading effect of rainwater.

diagnostic cumulus ensemble model (M.D. Cheng,

For each sub-ensemble, it is assumed that

pp. 1517-1538).

there is statistically steady updraft. Tilting angle is

(ii) Effects of downdrafts and Mesoscale

considered to be a constant for each sub-ensemble.

convective organization on the heat and moisture

budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Part II: Effects

of convective-scale downdrafts (M.D. Cheng, pp.

1540-1564).

(iii) Effects of downdrafts and Mesoscale

convective organization on the heat and moisture

budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Part III: Effects

of Mesoscale convective organization (M.D. Cheng

and M. Yanai, pp. 1566-1588).

Th ey have presented this revised

Arakawa-Schubert mo del and called it

Updraft-downdraft Model. The main features

of this model are summarized below:

(i) It is a diagnostic model.

(ii) It gives updraft model and downdraft

model.

(iii) Gives the formula for tilting angle of the

updraft in terms of horizontal and vertical velocity

components of the updraft. FIG. 7.3(5) : The up draft tilting angles of various types of

uc = horizontal component of velocity of clouds obtained by Scheme A (solid), Scheme (B) (dashed)

updraft air relative to the cloud. and Scheme C (long dashed). (Ming - Dean Cheng., 1989).

vc = 0

7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-47

The updraft parameters uc and wc are obtained from related to the vertical wind shear. When vertical

Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of heat and moisture wind shear is large, then squall-clusters are likely to

budgets. occur; when vertical wind shear is moderate,

(vi) The tilting updraft model is tested "non-squall clusters" are more likely.

against the data of GARP (Phase III). The (xvi) Large vertical wind shear favors large

horizontal distribution of θ is nearly uniform when tilting ang le and deep cumulus in

there is scattered convection; however, when there thermodynamically preferred regions. This proves

is organized cumulus convection, the updraft-tilting cou plin g between the wind field and the

angle shows local maximum. thermodynamic field.

(vii) Fig. 7.3(5) gives the updraft-tilting (xvii) The tilting angle and the cloud work

angle θ for various types of clouds. The tilting function are negatively correlated in time; the

angle increases with the depth of the cloud having tilting angle usually increases during the periods

the same cloud base near 960 mb (hPa). The tilting when the mass flux of the deep clouds associated

angle is less than 3o for clouds having tops at 700 with squall clusters is diagnosed.

mb (hPa). For clouds having tops near 200 mb (xviii) Occurrence of cloud clusters

(hPa), the tilting angle at the top is of the order of generally follows a long-term build-up of the

30o. cloud work function and the vertical wind

For details of schemes A, B, and C shear. Short-term fluctuations are interpreted as

mentioned in Fig. 7.3(5), the reader may refer to the result of development and decay of organized

Part I of the three-paper series in J. Atmos. Sci., cumulus convection.

1989, pp. 1517-1538. However, it is sufficient for (xix) The meso-scale organization of

our purpose to note that the schemes A, B, and C cumulus convection is a consequence of interaction

are simplified versions with a constant tilting angle between cumulus clouds and the environment under

for each ensemble updraft in the vertical. The the influence of vertical wind shear. Dynamic

results for the three schemes are not very different. parameters such as low-level wind shear should be

(viii) Downdraft model is also presented. taken into consideration in future cumulus

(ix) In Part II, Cheng presents the effect of parameterization schemes.

convective-scale downdrafts on heat and moisture Inclusion of Updraft-Downdraft Phenomena in

budget of tropical cloud cluster. Araka wa- Schubert Scheme of Cumulus

(x) In Part III, Cheng and Yanai present the Parameterization

effect of meso-scale convective organization on In an International Symposium held in

heat and moisture budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune,

(xi) The three papers together quantify India during 1992, Cheng and Arakawa presented

relationship between updraft tilting angle, the results of numerical experiments in General

thermodynamic properties of the air mass and wind Circulation Models in which Cheng and Yanai’s

shear. (1989, J. Atmos. Sci., 1 June, pp. 1517-1588)

(xii) Anvil effects are : Warming and drying thr ee-ser ies papers were included in

in the upper troposphere (of secondary importance, Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of cumulus

but not negligible). Correspondingly, there is parameterization. They brought out the following

cooling and moistening in the lower troposphere. points:

(xiii) Local maxima of the tilting angle (i) In the original Arakawa-Schubert

appear well before the organized precipitation scheme, the cumulus ensemble model did not

patterns, associated with squall clusters, and can be include convective downdrafts, which are

detected by radar; this implies the existence of important components in tropical convective

thermodynamically preferred regions for the systems.

formation of cloud clusters. (ii) Down dr afts wh ich in var iably

(xiv) Larger tilting angle generally gives accompany the updrafts inside the cumulus clouds,

larger downdraft mass flux relative to the updraft tend to decrease the cumulus heating and drying

mass flux. above the cloud base through a reduction of the

(xv) Degree of cloud organization is subsidence between cumulus clouds.

7-48 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

(iii) The outflow from downdrafts below the a large horizontal area with a sufficiently small

cloud base may also significantly modify the horizontal grid size. They performed a number of

thermodynamic properties of the sub-cloud layer. simulation experiments to study the macroscopic

(iv) Incorporation of the downdraft effects is behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of

an ob vio us imp ro vem ent in the o riginal different large-scale and underlying surface

Arakawa-Schubert scheme of cumulus con ditio ns. Th ey cam e to th e following

parameterization. conclusions:

(v) Cheng’s (1989 Part I, J. Atmos. Sci., pp. (i) In all simulations, cumulus activity is

1517-1538) model of combined updraft-downdraft rather strongly modulated by large-scale processes

spectral cumulus ensemble can be incorporated into such as large-scale advection and basic wind shear.

the original Arakawa-Schubert scheme as outlined When the basic wind shear is strong, there arise

below: meso-scale organizations which process creates

(a) The rainwater generated in the updraft some phase delays in the modulation.

is assumed to fall partly inside and partly (ii) The budget of eddy kinetic energy

outside of updraft. (EKE) shows that the net EKE generation rate is

(b) The mean tilting angle determines this nearly zero for a wide range of cumulus ensembles.

partitioning of the falling rain water. (iii) Horizontal resolution of the large-scale

(c) This mean tilting angle is estimated by model influences the results of Arakawa-Schubert

considering stable statistically-steady scheme in as much as quasi-balance of Cloud Work

states with random perturbations on the Function (CWF) by destructive influences of clouds

cloud-scale horizontal velocity. on CWF and generative influence of large-scale

( d) The vertical velocity and the processes is better achieved when the model

thermodynamical properties of the resolution is finer so as to catch meso-scale

associated downdraft are then calculated processes.

considering the effects of rainwater Gravi ty wave parameterization in

loading and evaporation. Arakawa-Schubert Scheme

(vi) The updraft-downdraft model of Cheng Kim and Arakawa (1995, J. Atmos. Sci.,

(1989, Parts I & II, 1 June, pp. 1517-1564) was 1st June, 1875-1902) examined the influence of

incorporated in the original Arakawa-Schubert intr oducing gravity wave drag in

scheme and tested diagnostically using a dataset for Arakawa-Schubert scheme of cumulus

GATE Phase III. The results of this testing exercise parameterization. Their work is summarized below

are summarized below: :

(a) The updraft-downdraft model predicts (i) Firstly, they presented a very useful Table

the cumulus drying rates reasonably well. showing intercomparison of several important

(b) The updraft-downdraft model performs schemes of parameterizing sub-grid-scale

better than the updraft-only model. orographic gravity wave drag for the stratosphere

(c) These are the results of One-step and the troposphere, including the work of Boer et

Prediction. The time-step was 10 minutes. al. (1984), Palmer et al. (1986), Stern et al. (1987),

(d) The computer time requirement for this Surgi (1989), and Hayashi et al. (1992).

combined Arakawa-Schubert-Cheng (ii) Kim and Arakawa (1995) devised a

model was about twice the time required scheme in which the numerical model explicitly

for Arakawa-Schubert model. More resolves gravity waves. They used a meso-scale

experiments are required to reduce the 2-dimensional non-linear anelastic, non-hydrostatic

computer time requirement. There is no model to numerically simulate gravity waves for a

doubt that the introduction of dynamics of variety of orographic conditions. They tested the

downdrafts in the thermodynamic model of then-existing schemes of gravity wave drag

Arakawa-Schubert scheme is essential. parameterization and showed that a large number of

Xu, Arakawa, and Krueger (1992, J. these schem es d o no t p roperly treat the

Atmos. Sci., 2402-2420) used two-dimensional enhancement of the drag due to low-level breaking

UCLA cumulus ensemble model (CEM), covering through resonant amplification of non-hydrostatic

7.4 Summary 7-49

waves. 2. Initialization

(iii) The revised parameterization scheme First, to convert the observatory-point data

proposed by Kim and Arakawa (1995) seems to into grid-point data, different methods of objective

overcome the above-mentioned difficulty of earlier analysis are presented: Successive correction

schemes by including additional statistical method, Optimum interpolation method for a single

information on sub-grid-scale orography inside the variable, and Multi-variate Optimum interpolation

parameterization scheme. method.

Objectively interpolated grid-point variables

7.4 Summary are then subjected to "initialization" processes.

Static and dynamic initialization schemes are

1. Introduction presented. The static initialization schemes

Trends are on the following lines : presented correspond to non-divergent balance

i) Subject of Meteorology is becoming model, balance model with limited divergence, and

inter-disciplinary with inputs from Physics, mass- wind b alance m od el by variational

Mathematics, Oceanography, Agriculture, techniques.

Atmospheric Chemistry, Statistics, Computer Dynamic initialization schemes presented

Science, Space Science, Remote Sensing, etc. are forward-and-backward time integration,

Meteorology is also using most sophisticated normal-mode initialization and bounded-derivative

com pu ters and satellites in collection, method.

communication, and analysis of data and also in Metho ds of Fo ur -d imen sion al data

using the data for automatic weather forecasting. assimilation are also briefly given.

ii) Public and Government agencies "Phy sical In itialization " has been

throughout the world, have become conscious successf ully in tro du ced mainly by T.N.

about the importance of Meteorology in the study Krishnamurti and his collaborators. In essence, it is

and protection of environment on global scale, for "reverse cumulus parameterization". You modify

safety of human and other forms of life on the earth. the vertical distribution of humidity in your model

iii) It is being realised that weather and so as to give the "observed" rates of moistening,

climate in the tropical region have significant heating, and rainfall at the time of satellite picture.

influence on the global weather and climate. These so-called "observed" rates come from a mix

Ocean is regarded as an important of surface-based systems (like rain gauge) and

con stituent of climate; hence, combined space-based systems (like OLR and SSM/I).

ocean-atmosphere dynamical models are being In this system of physical parameterization,

developed, for forecasting weather and climate, in mesoscale systems present in satellite pictures get

place of the earlier models, which involved identified and structurally analyzed.

atmosphere alone or introduced the ocean, at most This scheme of physical parameterization

as static lower boundary of the atmosphere. has been tested and appears to give improved

iv) For weather forecasting, analysis and forecast, particularly for severe

parameterization of sub-grid physical processes, weather systems including tropical cyclones.

though difficult, is considered to be the most 3. Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in

important and challenging component of the Tropics :

modelling the atmosphere-ocean system. For meso-scale models, individual cumulus

v) Earlier enthusiasm of the 1950s-1970s for motions are regarded as sub-grid motions. For

weather modification, has given place to caution; synoptic-scale models, meso-scale cumulus

emphasis has shifted to theoretical model studies or motions are regarded as sub-grid motions.

physical laboratory studies, before interfering with Meso-scale Models :

the atmosphere. i) Kreitzberg and Perkey (1976, 1977)

vi) Extending the period of detailed weather employed what may be called sequential plume

forecasts to ten days, and general weather forecasts model to simulate meso-scale convection. The

to a few months, is the immediate objective of many plumes were activated whenever grid-point

meteorological services of the world. conditional instability exceeded a critical value and

7-50 7.4 Summary

continued until the instability dropped below the surface as precipitation and that which mixes with

threshold. They simulated meso-scale rain bands of the environment. In this respect, there is some

extra-tropical cyclones. variation between Kuo’s 1965 and 1974 schemes.

ii) Brown (1979) used a one-dimensional Of course, in each of the schemes, there are

updraft plume model to simulate convection in his specified rates of precipitation, warming of the

two-dimensional meso-scale model. He employed environment, and moistening of the environment.

his model to simulate evaporation-driven Observations at different places and on different

meso-scale downdrafts as well as meso- scale anvil occasions are to determine the most acceptable

updrafts occurring in association with Cb clouds. values of this fraction or partitioning factor.

iii) Fritsch and Chappel (1980) used Krishnamurti et al. (1983) suggested a

one-dimensional plumes for both updrafts and plausible way of determining this partitioning

downdrafts in a convective system. factor. They took Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977)

All the above-mentioned schemes have data sets as observations giving precipitation rates,

in-built flexibility in respect of specifications for warming rates and moistening rates in the

vertical eddy heating and moistening. It is also atmosphere. Their objective was to find the value

possible, through slight modifications in the of partitioning factor which should be incorporated

models, to incorporate additional features like eddy in Kuo’s scheme and which would be consistent

transports of momentum and vorticity. with these observations. In arriving at this

Synoptic-scale Models : partitioning factor, they also used two additional

i) Moist Convective Adjustment Models: In available parameters of the large-scale

these models, lapse rate of super-saturated environment;

__ these are the mean vertical velocity

conditionally unstable layer is adjusted to neutrality ω in the troposphere and the relative vorticity ζ in

after every specified time-interval (usually less than the lower troposphere. It is understandable and

one hour). logical to postulate that the entire process of

ii) Moist Convergence Models : Large-scale precipitation, warming and moistening of the

supply of moisture due to convergence is atmosphere should be closely related to the

partitioned as follows: The condensed part is used large-scale vertical velocity and lower tropospheric

for warming the column and precipitating out; the vorticity of the atmosphere. They obtained a

uncondensed part is used for moistening the statistical relationship (by linear multiple

atmosphere inside the cloud and also for moistening regression) between the partitioning factor

__ and the

the environment outside the cloud. large-scale environmental parameters ω and ζ. If

iii) Kuo’s parameterization scheme for deep the regression coefficients are accepted and kept

cumulus convection: In this scheme, cumulus cloud constant, then the partitioning

__ factor varies with

performs the following functions: time and place along with ω and ζ. The rates of

a) The cloud sends precipitation to the precipitation, warming of environment and

earth’s surface. moistening of the environment, of course, remain

b) The cloud provides to the environment, bound to this partitioning factor.

the sensible heat which is released during This scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983),

condensation, through mixing with the environment derived from Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977) data

by dissolution immediately after its production. sets appears to be giving remarkable results in

c) Through dissolution, the cloud also Indian region also (Keshavamurty and Sawant,

provides moisture to the environment. 1989, personal communication).

The moisture which gets into a given Arakawa-Schubert Scheme :

volume of air gets partitioned into two components: This scheme is much more complex than

that which condenses and immediately falls down Kuo’s scheme. Its outline is given below :

to the earth’s surface as precipitation and that which i) A functional relationship is suggested

mixes with the environment immediately after between large-scale environment, and sub-grid

dissolution of the cloud. There has been some scale convection; i.e. corresponding to each

uncertainty and arbitrariness about the fraction of large-scale environment, there is specific sub-grid

moisture which is supposed to fall down to the scale convection, having specific time evolution

7.4 Summary 7-51

and interaction with environment. calculated fractional entrainment rate λ and the

ii) Time-tendency of the meso-scale cloud work function A(λ ) given by

cumulus convection at any instant of time is the zt

−

residual of two opposing forces: convective

instability of the synoptic-scale environment

A (λ)= ∫z η (z , λ) g ⎧

− ( z) ⎨⎩Tvc(z , λ) − Tv (z)⎬⎭ d z

T

⎫

B

tending to enhance convection, and the convection

itself tending to destroy the convective instability of All the seven data sets gave something like

the environment and thus tending to reduce its own a universal functional relationship between λ and

intensity. A(λ).

iii) We visualise a series of small time vii) Inside the text, algorithms are presented

intervals, each with temporary quasi-equilibrium to show how from a given vertical distribution of

between the two opposing forces. The time-scale environmental temperature T and environmental

of this quasi-equilibrium state is small (~ 30 min), specific humidity q , one can calculate the cloud

compared to the characteristic time-scale of ensemble properties : fractional entrainment rate λ ,

synoptic-scale environment (~ 1 day). cloud work function A(λ), rate of increase of

iv) Cumulus cloud ensemble is divided into kinetic energy of vertical motion of the cloud-type

a number of sub-ensembles according to a spectral λ due to the influence of other cloud-type λ ’ i.e K

parameter l. Each cloud sub-ensemble has its own (λ ,λ′) > contribution of large-scale processes

area of horizontal cross-section, cloud-top level, towards increasing A(λ) i.e. F(λ), total mass flux

speed of updraft, buoyancy, rate of entrainment, MB(λ) at the cloud base level and then the rates of

rate of precipitation, rate at which it tends to destroy precipitation and changes of T and q.

the convective instability of the environment, etc. A significant improvement in the classical

v) The main mathematical problem is Arakawa-Schubert scheme of cumulus

reduced to solving an integral equation denoting the parameterization is the introduction of more

quasi-equilibrium condition dynamics in the scheme through provision of

updrafts and downdrafts which produce, and in

λmax turn are produced by thermodynamic structure

∫ 0

K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0 given by Arakawa-Schubert scheme. Cheng and

Yanai (1989) in cooperation with Arakawa et al.

where K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′ represents the

(1992) have participated in this improvement of the

rate of decrease of convective instability of the Arakawa-Schubert scheme. With this improved

environment due to the cloud sub-ensemble and scheme, one can handle slanting updrafts which

F(λ) represents the forcing from the large-scale give particularly heavy precipitation and other

environment to enhance the intensity of the severe elements of weather.

convective cloud ensemble. Solution gives mB(λ′) A fu rth er im pr ovement in

for various values of λ’. One can then determine Arakawa-Schubert scheme has been the

all other properties of the cloud ensemble. introduction of gravity wave drag in the original

vi) Spectral parameter can be any property scheme. This improvement is due to Kim and

of a cloud ensemble. Lord and Arakawa (1980) Arak awa (1995), who used a meso-scale

found it convenient to take cloud top level as a two- dim ensio nal n on -lin ear an elastic,

useful characteristic pr op erty of a cloud non-hydrostatic model to numerically simulate

sub-ensemble and divided the cloud ensemble into gravity waves for a variety of orographic condition,

17 sub-ensembles. They took 7 different locations including sub-grid-scale orography inside the

with different synoptic conditions in the tropics and parameterization scheme.

sub-tropics for which cloud-top data could be

obtained. For each value of cloud top, they

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