Weather Science Haiti

Evaluating and Understanding Risks
Include Earthquakes in the Natural Phenomena Risks Alister William Macintyre research notes Last updated 2011 June 22 Version 1.6

Table of Contents
First Time Visitor Here (1 June 07) .............................................................................................. 3 Backwards (1 Jun 22).................................................................................................................. 4 Introduction (1 Mar 08) ...................................................................................................................... 5 Why this is important (1 May 16)..................................................................................................5 Red Cross 2011 SWS (1 Apr 23)............................................................................................... 7 Terminology (1 Feb 11) .................................................................................................................. 8 Tags (1 Apr 22) ................................................................................................................................ 8 Disaster Risk (1 Mar 08)...................................................................................................................... 9 UN GAR (1 Jun 16)..................................................................................................................10 UNDP DRI (1 Apr 24) ............................................................................................................11 IADB Disaster Risks (1 Mar 08)............................................................................................. 11 World Bank (1 May 05) ............................................................................................................11 Maplecroft NDRI (1 Mar 08)..................................................................................................12 Haiti Seasons ..................................................................................................................................12 Humanitarian Plans (1 Mar 08)............................................................................................... 13 Weather and Epidemics (1 Mar 24).................................................................................................13

1

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Haiti Rainy Season 2011 starts early................................................................................................ 14 Haiti Lake Overflows (1 June 08) ............................................................................................... 15 Haiti 2011 Spring Rains to intensify ...........................................................................................16 Storm Vulnerability (1 Apr 22).........................................................................................................16 Hurricane Pam and Katrina (1 Mar 28) .................................................................................18 Other Nations Reality...............................................................................................................18 Severe Weather Warnings (1 May 24).........................................................................................19 Fiona followed Earl 2010 .............................................................................................................20 Haiti Weather Science (1 May 15)....................................................................................................20 Earthquakes (1 June 05)................................................................................................................21 Earthquake vulnerability (1 June 08)......................................................................................22 Earthquake predictions (1 May 11) ........................................................................................23 Tsunami Risks (1 May 24) ............................................................................................................24 Tsunamis accompanying 2010 Jan Quake (1 May 11).........................................................25 Wind Hazards (1 Feb 17) .............................................................................................................26 Hurricane Intensities .....................................................................................................................26 Haiti Historical Risks (1 Apr 08) .................................................................................................28 Understand El Nino and La Nina (1 Feb 17)............................................................................32 La Nina predicts less 2011 spring rain (1 Feb 17)................................................................ 33 La Nina stronger for 2010-2011 Winter (1 Feb 17)............................................................. 33 Global Warming, Climate Change (1 Mar 08)...........................................................................34 Sea Level Rise from Climate Change (1 Apr 08)..................................................................34 Climate Change links (1 Apr 08)............................................................................................. 35 Up-coming storm risks (1 May 07)..................................................................................................36 Haiti Hurricane Mitigation (1 May 07) .......................................................................................36 2011 Hurricane names (1 June 01).............................................................................................. 37 2011 Hurricane Season how intense? (1 May 19) .....................................................................37 2011 April Colorado Hurricane Totals (1 Apr 06)............................................................... 38 2011 April Clarifications by Dennis (1 Apr 06)....................................................................39 2011 April Colorado Landfall Probabilities (1 Apr 06) .......................................................41

2

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

2011 April Colorado Projection via Dennis (1 Apr 06) ......................................................41 2011 February are bold guesses says Dennis (1 Feb 16) .....................................................42 2011 Feb-March projections via Tony (1 Mar 09) ............................................................... 44 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast ............................................................................................... 45 2010 Tomas................................................................................................................................ 47 Volcanoes........................................................................................................................................48 US natural phenomena (1 May 24)..................................................................................................48 Tornadoes (1 May 24) ...................................................................................................................49 Winter Storms (1 May 24) ............................................................................................................49 Wild Fires (1 Jun 08) .....................................................................................................................49 Useful Downloads (1 Feb 17) ..........................................................................................................50 Version History (1 Apr 22) ..........................................................................................................51

First Time Visitor Here (1 June 07)
Haiti is an under-developed poor nation, which is particularly vulnerable to a variety of disasters, including tropical storms. I have been monitoring Atlantic Hurricane updates, and as I see impending threats, I post details to the Haiti Rewired Forum on Haiti Weather Forecast.1 I suggest people might wish to join Haiti Rewired,2 so they may follow my posts there, unless they are already getting satisfactory news elsewhere. After getting latest details to the HR Forum, I relay summary of update various other places, such as through Facebook Group Messages. In this research notes document, I look at the bigger picture than tomorrow’s weather.  Millions of Haitians are in shelters which are inferior to the mobile homes which cannot survive severe weather in America. What progress is being made to get them better quality survivability protection? What other risks does very bad weather bring to Haiti? Where can a person go to get authoritative information about these topics? Do we have good info about weather forecast long range for this season? What do El Nino and La Nina tell us about how bad this year’s season may be? Can we learn useful info from historical weather patterns?

    

1 2

http://haitirewired.wired.com/forum/topics/weather-forecast-haiti http://haitirewired.wired.com/

3

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

What other natural phenomena do we need to be concerned about?

Backwards (1 Jun 22)
Conclusion from recent research: The human race is going BACKWARDS in risk mitigation. The threats are not getting worse. Our civilization is placing itself in greater harm's way. Haiti rebuilding is using the same techniques as were used for the buildings which were demolished in the 2010 earthquake. In some cases, shelters are being built inferior to what they are replacing. Port au Prince is still close to the epicenter of future quakes. Rebuilding in place, is like New Orleans under water before Katrina, and rebuilt in place, with no provision for better protection against the next such event. Our mega-cities population is exploding. Very few cities have building codes good enough against the known threats. When people need to evacuate cities, to escape various disasters, our transportation infrastructure is not equipped to handle the exploding population, or ability to weather multiple concurrent disasters. How are people to evacuate, to escape tsunami or inland consequences of an earthquake, when the highways have been demolished? For example, the USA NW / Canadian SW is overdue for Cascadia II. 1. The earthquake will demolish highways which would otherwise support evacuation. 2. A tsunami will hit Seattle, Vancouver, and other coastal metropolises, with a severity worse than Japan recent disaster. 3. Inland dams will collapse, sending a wall of water down stream to multiple inland cities, where there is no infrastructure to help people escape, after the highways, railroads, and airports have been demolished by the earthquake. Wetlands soak up tropical storms, so their ferocity does not go so far inland. We have been eliminating our coastal wetlands. Climate change predicts rising ocean levels, which means for coastal cities there will be worse storm surge, greater risks of flooding. Instead of mitigation, there is political denial that this risk approaches. These “once in 100 years” horrible USA tornados and Midwestern floods, are in fact happening at least “once in 20 years”, if you look at the history. People lose their homes and businesses, relocate, and OTHER people settle in the vacated area, until they also experience these horrible events.

4

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Introduction (1 Mar 08)
Topic sub-titles end in a date (format Y Month Day) signifying when that info last updated, so by viewing table of contents, we see where most recent input to these research notes, especially aiding people with copy of an earlier version. No date on the end means what is there is still first draft of the info. Here are summaries of Haiti weather expectations, why this is important, with links to more info. I know that earthquakes and volcanoes are NOT weather, but in these research notes I am including natural phenomena which gets blamed for disasters, where human unpreparedness shares much of the blame. For example, shortly after the Haiti 7.1 quake there was a Chile 8.2 quake … vastly more severe, but trivial damage by comparison. The difference was human preparedness. This is a topic of continuing interest in which I anticipate adding more info over time. I have other collections of research notes which could be used in combination, such as links to Haiti Maps, which NGOs are working on supposedly safer housing, 3 and generally

Navigating Haiti Aid Information sources.

Something is whacko in my Word formatting … under Hurricane Intensities, within Weather Science, I am trying to make sub-heads for the different kinds of intensities, but that is not getting into Table of Contents. Version numbers are incremented, with this document periodically uploaded various places for convenience of other people who can then pick and choose which of my research efforts they wish to download. In 2010 I shared breaking news about weather helter skelter to my contacts in Haiti, and people supporting groups there. In advance of 2011 info expectations, here I am gathering what info I have on climate expectations, and is Haiti any better prepared than in 2010? Users of my research hold Alister Wm. Macintyre harmless, and also the places I upload my research to, and agree that my copyright is reserved and that the information is available for the intended purpose of helping in the recovery of Haiti. Some of my research content is direct quotes from other sources. I try to give credit every time I do this.

Why this is important (1 May 16)
Every Hurricane season, the Caribbean has a large supply of Tropical bullets, where some of them may smash into the Haiti island. Unlike the American continents, people on an island cannot drive a few hundred miles out of the way of the storm. They are stuck there in tent cities, flimsy shacks, and camped in back yard of demolished homes they cannot leave for fear of someone else seizing their property. Early warning systems, for ordinary people, are a joke. The first most Haitians learn of bad weather, is when they are awoken because their
3

See research notes specifically on “ Haiti

T-Shelter Projects” for example.

5

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

bed is now under water, high winds are blowing away their children, or a mudslide is relocating their home. Millions of Haitians are at severe risk when tropical storms arrive. Is this a fact of living which has always been the case, or is it the consequence of infrastructure destroyed by past disasters and never replaced? Where does the responsibility lie for doing the replacing? I believe it is shared:   Gov of Haiti should be getting reports on what the NGOs, visiting govs, UN, etc. doing, in a form that has clarity to see progress done, progress needed ahead. UN clusters also should be getting such reports, on what’s needed overall in rebuilding, what’s got done, where the priorities should be.

Severe Weather Shelters (SWS) are places Haitians can go, to be safe, during a bad

storm, assuming they find out in enough time to get there, and if they know where there is. Since the Jan 2010 quake, there has not been sufficient SWS capacity for Haitian population. The people doing humanitarian relief and reconstruction do not seem to feel it is a priority to either fix this, or let Haitians know where new SWS located. According to this video, when bad weather comes, people in the tent cities are told they need to go to good shelter, but are not told where there is any.4 There is severe deforestation, much of it implemented during Duvalier dictatorships, to remove hiding places for Haitians in rebellion against the regime. Extreme poverty of the people, combined with lack of access to Biochar5 solutions, means continued chopping down of whatever vegetation is available, to burn for cooking. This means hillsides cannot hold vegetation, vegetation cannot protect Haitians from storms, there is severe soil erosion, pollution. A sanitation system for Haitians is practically non-existent. There are many reasons for this, including corruption in international interference in Haitian affairs.6 One of the impacts is that the rainy season helps spread germs associated with various medical epidemics, because of increased flow of water through overflowing drainage canals. What about the people in the Cholera Treatment Centers? ... all the pictures I have seen are of tents. When a severe storm is in the forecast, there could be major panic trouble if those people were to be evacuated to the same SWS as the general population. I also doubt transportation capacity is adequate to do that efficiently. Should the current reference directory on CTCs etc. include a column for whether the

http://haitirewired.wired.com/profiles/blogs/haiti-where-did-the-money-go I have a small document available, which defines “What is Biochar?” with links to more info. 6 Check out this story, in case you are unfamiliar with the problem: http://haitirewired.wired.com/profiles/blogs/causing-cholera-us-denial-of
4 5

6

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

people there need to be relocated in the event of a Tropical Storm, or if the structure is good enough to withstand one? So basically weather can, and does, exacerbate a host of Haitian nightmares. Note my related research documents on: 

Lessons which should be learned, mainly related to Japan nuclear from

tsunami, where risks of natural disasters are not a total mystery, we should mitigate against probable risks. 

Economic Disasters – past present future, where there are red flags alerting us
to possible hazards ahead, if we are only wise enough to interpret them, and take preventative measures.

Red Cross 2011 SWS (1 Apr 23)

According to Greg Higgins in Haiti Rewired (HR) discussion thread on SWS,7 the American Red Cross (ARC) issued a Request for Proposals (RFP). Greg’s link to it has already gone from Relief Web, but in footnotes are some links Al Mac found, which also could disappear at any moment.8 Here is introductory paragraph to this RFP:

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON MULTI-PURPOSE COMMUNITY DISASTER CENTERS IN HAITI 2011 As part of its disaster response and disaster risk reduction efforts, the American Red Cross is implementing the “Emergency Disaster Risk Reduction project (EDRR) in order to reduce negative impacts of disasters and increase safety and resilience of the people of Haiti with a special emphasis in the camps populations. The relevance and effectiveness of the project were demonstrated during recent hurricane when the trained volunteers and Vigilance Committees (DM committee) were proactively involved in disseminating early warning messages and activating evacuation plans. The ARC intends to commence a detailed feasibility study for needs analysis, mapping stakeholders, site selection and determine technically sound, culturally appropriate and financially viable designs of community disaster centers. Therefore, ARC seeks an experienced external consultant in order to carry out a feasibility study together with other technical experts assigned by ARC and HRC.

http://haitirewired.wired.com/group/architectureforhaiti/forum/topics/severe-weather-shelter-sws I located the PDF and downloaded with name “Red X RFP 2011 Mar 31 SWS” which I can share with people who desire a copy, and cannot find it. I also uploaded to the SWS thread on HR. http://pub27.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=2241665034&frmid=48&msgid=1006718&cm d=show
7 8

7

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

The American Red Cross, Haiti Delegation hereby solicits your proposal for the provision of a “Feasibility study on multi-purpose community disaster centers in Haiti 2011” as per the attached scope of work (SOW).

Terminology (1 Feb 11)
I also have a comprehensive research document listing Acronyms and specialized

terminology commonly found in documents about Haiti Disaster Relief and Recovery.

GYRE = ocean currents, winds, rotation of our planet, etc. tend to create circular movement of the ocean in pockets, which can become building blocks for an upcoming weather disturbance.9 KT = nautical knots, a measure of wind speed. NFI = non-food-items SWS = Severe Weather Shelters, places where people can go when tropical storm imminent, and they know: o the storm is coming, with enough advance warning to get to SWS; and o infrastructure communication to the citizenry so they know SWS they can get to from where they are.

  

Tags (1 Apr 22)
When uploading this document, where tags or keywords invited, here are suitable choices: Climate Science, Disaster History, El Nino, Flood, Forecast, Haiti, Hazards, Hurricane, La Nina, Meteorology, Outlook, Plan Ahead, Prediction, Season, Severe Weather, Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, Tsunami, Volcano, Vulnerability, Warnings, Weather, Wind, When there is space for a description, consider the following: Over 1 million Haitians reside in tents or shacks, without adequate protection from seasonal severe weather which is typical for Haiti. The rainy season, combined with lack of good sanitation, has a direct impact on medical risks. There is also food insecurity. Weather and climate info helps planners see urgency of resolving high risk of another disaster. Prior to the 2010 Jan earthquake, there were supposedly enough cyclone shelters for entire Haitian population. Those inside quake area (Port au Prince and many points to South and South West) were obliterated. Millions of Haitians left those devastated areas, and moved to live in communities outside the quake zone, some of which have now increased in population 130-150%, while their cyclone capacity has not increased. Thus, all over Haiti
9http://earth.usc.edu/~stott/Catalina/Oceans.html

http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/wind-driven-surface.htm

8

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

there is an emergency need for severe weather shelter capacity, which is not being met.

Disaster Risk (1 Mar 08)
Remembering that many people believe that there is no such thing as a Natural Disaster, only a mixture of natural phenomena and inadequate human planning, there are still those who use the terminology natural disaster for a lot of damage associated with:            tsunamis, tropical storms, ordinary storms, flooding, drought, forest fires, extreme temperatures, landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, epidemics.

For natural phenomena, on the above list, to be likely to place people at risk of harm, several elements need to be combined:  Whether any humans or human property is at risk of physical exposure. Examples: o A storm that stays out at sea, not threaten any ships, is not a problem. o An earthquake, far from any land, if it does not trigger a tsunami, is no big deal. o There is now good information on population density, critical infrastructure around the world, so when serious natural phenomena detected, it is also known how many people exposed, and how well protected that geography supposedly is to that particular phenomena.  Adequacy of early warning. Examples: o Japan has sensors deep below cities, to trigger sirens 15 minutes before earthquake arrival. This is not prediction but detection.

9

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

o Most volcanoes, around the world, now have monitoring stations to detect new eruptions, and signal warnings for people nearby to evacuate.  Adequacy of ecosystems to “weather” certain hazards. Examples: o Deforestation can make hillsides more vulnerable to landslides, aid soil erosion of good farmlands, into river pollution. o Wetlands “soak up” hurricanes, to protect national interior, but conflicting developer needs have led to wetlands being destroyed by man, so some nations are now less protected.  Adequacy of human buildings and other structures to “weather” a storm of known intensity, as opposed to being vulnerable to systemic failure. Examples: o Buildings “rated” to withstand particular intensities of earthquakes and storms. o Shelters designed to protect people in case of tornado. We can theoretically add to the natural phenomena list various human acts of violence endemic in some nations, such as:     terrorism, rapes, muggings, break-ins.

UN GAR (1 Jun 16)

The United Nations (UN) has a Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction, which is a resource for understanding and analyzing global disaster risk today and in the future. You can download from this page both the main report, chapter by chapter, the Appendices, HFA Monitoring Country Reports and the set of contributing papers that constitute the substance which feeds the GAR.10 Looks like they are not only yet done on Haiti for the 2010-2011 version, but also not yet started.11

10 11

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/home/download.html http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/hfa/reports.html

10

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

UNDP DRI (1 Apr 24)

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) maintains a Disaster Risk Index (DRI).12 It combines history of past disasters 1980-2000 with preparedness by nation to weather such risks, to estimate in advance what the causalities are likely to be, the next time that kind of trouble arrives there, and how often this likely to re-occur. Their data is shared via:   European Union (EU) Global Resource Information Database (GRID). 13 European Union (EU) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).14

Also see Earthquake lessons 2010 UNDP Calas document which I downloaded (see footnotes).15

IADB Disaster Risks (1 Mar 08)

The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) has developed Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management to allow countries to better assess their disaster risks, serving as a useful guide for policymaking and government actions to reduce human, infrastructure, financial, and economic losses caused by earthquakes, floods and other natural events. 16 Here is their 42 page September 2010 summary report for Latin America and the Caribbean.17     Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) estimates economic loss a nation will probably suffer the next time they have a particular kind of disaster. DDI = to MCE divided by ER. Maximum Considered Event (MCE) is calculated from history of how often these kinds of events have occurred in the past, with what severity. Economic Resiliency (ER) is calculated from resources available to the government.

I am not seeing Haiti in this analysis.

World Bank (1 May 05)

For under $ 30.00 we can buy “Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters) via Scribd.18 Urban flooding risks are the subject of a Disaster Risk Management report, Spring 2011. 19

http://www.undp.org/cpr/disred/english/wedo/rrt/dri.htm http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/DRI/ 14 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1149/2009/nhess-9-1149-2009.html 15 http://www.iris.edu/hq/middle_america/docs/presentations/1025/Calais_2010.pdf 16 http://www.iadb.org/en/topics/natural-disasters/disaster-risk-indicators/disaster-risk-indicators,1456.html 17 http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=35177671 18 http://www.scribd.com/doc/49556148/Natural-Hazards-UnNatural-Disasters 19 http://go.worldbank.org/1RMUDBB7V0 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPRE GTOPRISKMGMT/0,,contentMDK:22906643~menuPK:4078302~pagePK:2865114~piPK:2865167~theSite PK:4077908,00.html?cid=EAP_EAPDMEN_Q_EXT
12 13

11

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Maplecroft NDRI (1 Mar 08)

May 2010, Maplecroft20 released an analysis of which nations at greatest risk of which kinds of natural phenomena which can lead to disaster, in the absence of adequate human planning. Their Natural Disasters Risk Index (NDRI) helps guide businesses and investors to see what risks face their assets in different nations.

on the list of 229 nations, rated as extreme risk of additional natural disasters.

Haiti is # EIGHT (worst)

Click here to see Maplecroft's full range of over 100 political, economic, social and environmental risk indices and interactive maps. Register for trial access to see examples. "Poverty is an important factor in countries where both the frequency and impacts of natural disasters are severe," said Maplecroft Environmental Analyst, Dr Anna Moss. "Poor infrastructure, plus dense overcrowding in high risk areas like flood plains, river banks, steep slopes and reclaimed land continually result in high casualty figures."

Columbia University CHRR Hot Spots (1 Mar 08)
Columbia University’s (CU) Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) has assessed the global risks of mortality and economic losses from disasters. 21

USA Risks (1 Mar 08)
Here is a map of USA showing where greatest risks of Earthquakes, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Volcanoes.22

Haiti Seasons
Haiti has two primary rainy seasons. 1st is April through mid to late June. 2nd is Mid August through October Mountainous regions may begin 1st Rainy Season Mid. February. Hurricane Season July to late October normal season One month earlier and one month later can be expected and is not unusual.

http://www.maplecroft.com/about/news/natural_disasters.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/09/12-countries-at-extremer_n_605924.html#s98112&title=Bangladesh 21 http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots/ 22 http://www.inscenter.com/info-center/disaster-planning/risk-profile
20

12

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Due to a lack of good quality government information about upcoming plans for protecting the people from tropical storms, there is also a “Fear Season” as the Hurricane season approaches. Haiti agriculture means there are seasons where the people can be well fed, and there are also periods which can be called “Hunger Season.”

Humanitarian Plans (1 Mar 08)

After 2010 learning experiences, the main actors, directing Haiti relief and reconstruction, now know what to expect, so they plan in advance so THEY will be able to continue doing their job after the next disaster. I have yet to see evidence of disaster-planning so that the Haitians will be better protected against future disasters, but I continue watching to see if that changes. The National Risk Management and disasters (SNGRD) with the support of the United Nations Development Programme UNDP held a workshop chaired by Marie Alta JeanBaptiste, Director of Civil Protection (DPC).23 Here it is, spring of 2011, and they recognize that a better job needs to be done pooling all available resources and integrating them into a system of strategic intervention in emergency situations       detailed mapping of the partners in each region, contact list update, positioning of the aid stocks, risk areas, national contingency plan, logistical needs: transport, communications, shelter.

Weather and Epidemics (1 Mar 24)
On Scribd, we can download a 4 page quick study summary of Weather Disasters and Epidemics.24 This goes back only to 1900 for: Caribbean; China; Russia; USA; and other places around the world. It includes some disasters which I do not consider to be related to weather or medical, other than the fact that a heck of a lot of people got killed. Haiti is at particular risk of landslides and mudslides25 due to the mountainous terrain and deforestation. Lack of quality drainage infrastructure also contributes to flooding 26 after heavy rains.

http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2485-haiti-climate-haiti-already-preparing-the-hurricane-season.html http://www.scribd.com/doc/15723178/QuickStudy-Weather-Disasters-Epidemics?in_collection=2896752 25 http://emergencysociety.com/landslide-and-debris/
23 24

13

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

All thunderstorms are potentially dangerous.27 Many come with lightning. In the USA they can spawn tornadoes, hail.

Haiti Rainy Season 2011 starts early
Rains are returning to Haiti a couple weeks ahead of the normal time line. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and February 11, 12, and 13, 2011 Friday, daytime should be mostly clear with rains returning toward midnight. Starting around midnight Friday into Saturday, rains will move into primarily the North through mid morning. The South Central may see rains around 0600 hr through mid morning. By 1800 hr the rains may develop along the Eastern Mountainous regions near the DR border. By midnight Saturday into Sunday there is a moderate chance 60 - 70 percent that the entire country may experience rains. The heaviest will likely be the Central to the Southeast regions midnight through 0700 to 1000 hr. Sunday night into Monday the rains may continue through midday Monday. Temperatures remain seasonal. **********Extended Forecast******** A period of rain will be on and off over the country for at least the next 10 days. Currently, the only non-rain day would be around the 17th into the 18th. The entire country will not receive rains at the same time, nor will the rains be all day. But, we can expect rains at various times for the next 2 weeks with localized heavy showers. Areas should be secured from rains and run-offs. Currently, there are no extremely heavy rains in the forecast, but the rain chances are increasing. Al Mac info source for the above (posted in Al’s Facebook notes Feb-11):

Dennis Sherrod

26 27

http://emergencysociety.com/flood/ http://emergencysociety.com/thunderstorms/

14

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

MPHISE - Logistics and Security

Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org/

Haiti Lake Overflows (1 June 08)
Via HEAS <haiti-epidemic-advisory-system@googlegroups.com> we learn of http://defend.ht/news/articles/environment/1166-humanitarian-groups... Evacuations Begin after Lake Overflows PLAINE DU CUL-DE-SAC, Haiti — NGO officials say they plan to evacuate as many as 1,000 villagers because the country's largest lake has overflowed its banks after weeks of steady showers. Leonard Doyle of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), who spoke to the Associated Press said two or three villages near Lake Azuei are surrounded by water after Étang Saumâtre burst its banks overnight. Humanitarian groups are planning to evacuate flood victims by boat. Canals that are supposed to stabilize the lake's water level are clogged with trash. Lake Azuei straddles the Haitian-Dominican border and has seen flooding for years. Haiti has seen weeks of downpours as the rainy season shifts into the hurricane season, which began last week. Here are several maps including color coding USA as to where Flood risk is greatest. 28 Perhaps the principle can be extended to other nations.

28

http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps

15

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Haiti 2011 Spring Rains to intensify
There is a chance of several days of stronger and longer duration rains around the 1st of March

Storm Vulnerability (1 Apr 22)
On Haiti Rewired Architecture Group, we have had some discussion of http://haitirewired.wired.com/group/architectureforhaiti SWS = Severe Weather Shelters, places where people can go when tropical storm imminent, and they know: * the storm is coming, with enough advance warning to get to SWS * infrastructure communication to the citizenry so they know SWS they can get to from where they are Reality is that before Jan 2010 quake there were sufficient SWS for Haitian population, but in quake area, many demolished. Some rebuilding has replaced some SWS capacity, but it is totally insufficient for Haiti needs. When next tropical storm comes, there will be millions more Haitians in need of SWS than SWS capacity available, Further, there seems to be no urgency by actors in charge in Haiti to resolve this gap. In recent storms it has been evident that there is zero interest in informing ordinary people that a storm is coming. The only interest is in making sure the NGOs can remain in business. Thus, we can confidently predict, that if there is no change in policy, when the next major tropical storm arrives, most SWS capacity will be sitting empty, because people who could have been rescued, will not be warned in advance of impending storm, or where they can go for SWS shelter. Because the SWS discussion on Haiti Rewired Architectural Group was getting buried in comments on many other topics, I started a separate discussion thread there, just on SWS: http://haitirewired.wired.com/group/architectureforhaiti/forum/topics/severe-weathershelter-sws For more info on how SWS ought to fit into the Haiti housing recovery effort, see Al Mac research document = Glossary of Haiti Housing Challenges. As worse weather seasons approach, remind all to find closest shelters for contacts on the ground in Haiti. Do not wait until Hurricane is on top of them, because the data is not yet friendly to the people whose lives depend on it.

16

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Here is home page for what UN NGO shelter cluster is doing for the millions of homeless from Haiti Jan 2010 quake, now mainly in tent cities, or overloading rural homes without resources for all the refugees. https://sites.google.com/site/shelterhaiti2010/home Select MAP ROOM, whose url can change over time. Locate map labeled "Severe Weather Community Shelters" meaning where Haitians can go for protection from a Hurricane, assuming they know these places exist, and where they are. Map quality is not that great for people who want to find one of these shelters, so if you wait until last day to try to figure out where, the hurricane will probably kill you before you find where. Given how serious this appears to be getting, it is a good time for to you verify your pals, on the ground in Haiti, are aware of the locations of shelters from hurricanes that are close to their current locations: Go here https://sites.google.com/site/shelterhaiti2010/2. Notice under Shelter Cluster Maps 29 May 2010 - Bad Weather Community Shelter Assessment According to http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/MDCS8DYE8N?OpenDocument&clickid=headlines (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) from International Organization for Migration (IOM) 2011 Feb-11: By end of 2011, there will still be hundreds of thousands of Haitians in the displacement camps, for lack of any solutions agreed to by the various actors in charge of Haiti disaster relief and recovery, including IOM. Many agencies, helping the camp residents, are running out of funds to do so. More than half of the displaced are living in camps established on private land with at least 99 of Haiti's 1152 camps currently under threat of eviction.

17

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Hurricane Pam and Katrina (1 Mar 28)

One year before Hurricane Katrina there was Hurricane Pam, which was a simulation, what would happen if the Gulf Coast got the most powerful Hurricane then known to man. Pam exactly predicted Katrina, and what needed to be done to protect the people. When Katrina came along, none of the protections had been implemented, and all the lessons of Pam had fallen out of authorities brains. When asked about this afterwards, we were told that Pam recommendations were on the drawing boards and budget requests to implement. But officialdom had been acting like they had all the time in the world to do this, not matter if it take years. Hurricane seasons are very predictable. Risk existed that Pam predictions might happen in any hurricane season. They did happen in the very next one. These recommendations are being taken entirely too lightly.

Other Nations Reality

US Coast Guard was at Port Condition Whiskey, in anticipation of Hurricane Earl in 2010. Assuming you live in a reasonably sturdy home, as opposed to a Haiti tent city, the Governor of North Carolina advised people to have 3-7 day supply of the following stuff inside their battened down home (or evacuate): Supplies should be kept in an easy-to-carry, water-tight container, such as a large plastic trash can or sturdy cardboard box lined with plastic trash bags. Your kit should include: ¨ Essential medications ¨ First aid kit and first aid book ¨ Cash and checkbook ¨ Copies of important documents – insurance, birth certificates, social security cards, wills, tax and bank information, list of doctors and inventory of household goods ¨ Water - one gallon per person per day ¨ Water purification kit or bleach ¨ Non-perishable foods, such as canned meats, granola bars, instant soup and cereals, etc. ¨ Non-electric can opener ¨ Baby supplies: formula, bottles, pacifiers, soap, baby powder, clothing, blankets, baby wipes, disposable diapers, canned food and juices ¨ Seasonal changes of clothing, including sturdy shoes ¨ Blanket or sleeping bag per person ¨ Portable radio or television with extra batteries ¨ Flashlight and extra batteries ¨ Extra pair of eyeglasses or contacts ¨ Extra house keys and car keys

18

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

¨ Pet supplies: food, water, leash, carrier, bedding and vaccination records ¨ Books, cards, toys, things to occupy you and your child’s time ¨ Large plastic trash bags for waste, tarps and rain ponchos ¨ Bar soap and liquid detergent ¨ Anti-bacterial hand wipes or gel ¨ Personal hygiene items such as soap, shampoo, toothpaste, toothbrush and deodorant, etc. ¨ Feminine hygiene supplies ¨ Toilet paper

Severe Weather Warnings (1 May 24)
Much of the advice to Americans, what to do29 in advance of a hurricane or tropical storm, is ineffective for Haitians, whose living conditions are extremely vulnerable. In most past storms, the first most Haitians know a storm is coming, is when their bed is underwater, their tent or tarp already blown away, they wake up in the flood waters to find their children blowing away. This has also happened in "safe" relocation camps. o "Relocation camps" are where Haitians are evacuated to when their old camp is at risk of flooding or mudslides. The state-of-art of warning ordinary Haitian public that a storm is coming, appears to be non-existent.  "Hurricane Contingency Planning" is a combination of making sure the NGOs don't get wiped out, and a plan which may not have been implemented or tested, something on paper, like when Katrina hit New Orleans, the city had a disaster plan which they ignored, perhaps because all the computers and radios were down. UN web sites, like USA web sites, get updated by people who work Mon-Fri day jobs. They might not find out about something that ought to get posted, until after it has happened. Remember the 2004 Tsunami ... alerts were sent many nations, hours before it arrived, but it was a weekend, anyone it sent to was not at work. Haiti may have 250,000 NGOs, or 3,000 ... no one knows, lots people disagree on the #s ... the vast majority of them do NOT participate in the UN clusters, which try to coordinate humanitarian relief aid ... the vast majority of them do NOT inform donors or Haitians WHERE they are doing whatever relief aid, guaranteeing anarchy of relief - some places get excess which then ends up in black market priced more than many Haitians can afford (unemployment in Haiti was over 80% before the quake), other victims ignored. To read the KMZ files, you need to have installed Google Earth, and even then, some of the files not work.30

http://emergencysociety.com/hurricane/ See my “Maps Directory” research notes for guidance on downloading Google Earth, learning how to use it effectively.
29 30

19

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

When UN NGOs say "emergency shelter" they mean Tents & Tarps, ie. shelter for homeless from sun rain etc., but 40% of this not designed for tropical weather, disintegrates within 2-3 months, then replaced by same "quality". The map of "emergency shelter gaps" is an estimate of how many Haiti homeless do not even have that much protection vs. how many currently are in the tent cities. When UN NGOs say "transitional shelter" they mean wooden structures which are about the size of an outhouse or tool shed, with canvas walls which can be cut by a rapist knife in middle of night ... they are better than tents & tarps, but not by much

Fiona followed Earl 2010
Science explanation how come Fiona was weaker than Earl. Here's Earl in Puerto Rico. I saw some worse pictures, but was unable to get the url here. Damage report from where it hit before getting to Hispaniola: Antigua got hit possibly the hardest when rivers went out of bank: whole communities are flooded, roads are blocked. St. Martin: trees down; fishing port destroyed in Virgin Gorda. Puerto Rico: roofs off homes, airplane flipped. St. Kitts: people are putting sandbags up against homes; waves are still pounding beaches. I'm trying to find out what has happened on Haiti. Will post below if I make contact with a person down there. The storm is North of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic tonight. 135 mph to 160 mph. On this day in 2008, Tropical Storm Hanna, was exactly where Earl now is, then right after sigh of relief, it made U-turn and did heavy damage. Science of predicting storm tracks involves a bit of human art.

Haiti Weather Science (1 May 15)
On Haiti Rewired forum http://haitirewired.wired.com/forum/topics/weather-forecast-haiti

20

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

I have been posting 2 kinds of ingredients: 1. Imminent Weather forecasts when trouble brewing 2. Seek better understanding of the sciences of weather prediction When weather forecast is more severe than usual, I often also post info on my Facebook Notes,31 then use Facebook Message to Groups capability to send link to that info to groups of Haitian contacts. I also sometimes share in other social networks which I am in. The risk of Earthquakes and Tsunamis, in general, outside of Haiti specifically, are discussed in my other research notes:   Natural Phenomena Disasters within my Navigation Guide to Japan

Nuclear Info.

Multiple chapters of Lessons (which should have been learned from recent disasters), where I explore what are the largest in history, which turn out to be thanks to Asteroids hitting the earth, so I check on the state-of-art of science there, predicting in time to do something about them, which is good, but not good enough. I have a time line of red flags (warning of disasters) in Economy Disasters – past present future. Notice expected Asteroid near-miss of planet Earth in 2029.

Earthquakes (1 June 05)
I know that Earthquakes are not Weather phenomena, but in this research document I am looking at Natural Phenomena that are often blamed for horrible disasters, when Human unpreparedness for risks should share much of the blame. Earthquake prediction science needs to be better funded, so it can improve, but more importantly, politicians need to PAY ATTENTION when seismologists warn that some geography is overdue to get a nasty big one. Perhaps the general public needs a map showing where high risk,32 so that THEY can better be prepared, since their governments are not paying attention to these updated risk assessments.  Haiti 2010 January earthquake was predicted 2 years in advance. Seismologists were correct as to location, but the intensity of the quake was less severe than the prediction. They had said that location was overdue to get a quake up to 8.0 in intensity. Japan 2011 March earthquake was predicted 2 months in advance. Seismologists were correct as to location, but the intensity of the quake was less severe than the

31 32

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000739863521&sk=notes http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

21

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

prediction. They had said that location would get 8.0 or worse, some time in next 30 years. Earthquake predicting: Science is constantly improving. It cannot predict WHEN one will come, like with weather prediction, but scientists have been predicting WHERE there is a high risk of one coming soon. In 2008, an earthquake scientist warned that Haiti was at imminent risk of an earthquake near the nation’s capital of Port au Prince.33 Of course there’s always people warning of stuff, and some of them are nut jobs, so the credentials of the sources of any predictions should be verified before using that info to take (expensive) risk mitigation action. The Haiti quake was a shock to everyone, but not a surprise to earthquake scientists. Two years was not enough time for a lot of preparation, but it was time to improve critical infrastructure such as buildings where fire engines and ambulances parked (so they would not be crushed by those collapsing buildings). According to 2011 March 19 Economist magazine, Japanese seismologists had warned in Jan 2011 that NE Japan was overdue for a large quake. They calculated that there was a 99% chance of an 8.0 or higher quake in the next 30 years off the Miyagi coast. They were not surprised March 11 by a quake coming almost exactly where they had predicted one, only by its size. Two months advance warning probably was not enough time for a lot of preparation, but it was enough time to build higher sea walls for nuclear power plants, and improve inland tsunami warning systems. Here is a beacon placed inside buildings, to help rescuers find survivors. 34 You know that many cars have a device which detects a variety of trouble, then has a conversation with the car's survivors to determine what kind of rescue they need? Well this is the same kind of deal for inside buildings.35 Here is a site about Earthquakes around the world.36

Earthquake vulnerability (1 June 08)

At time of 2010 Jan earthquake, the entire nation of Haiti had only a single educational seismometer operating in the country.37 (I assume it needed electrical power.) After the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sent in a team to study the aftermath’s aftershocks. The geology team found no evidence of movement on the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault. Other studies also confirmed the finding that the earthquake had

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16939 http://www.lematinhaiti.com/Article.asp?ID=14646 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/earthquake-detection.html 34 https://sites.google.com/site/sonicbeacon/ 35 http://emergencysociety.com/AlMac99/blog/earthquake-survival-aid/ 36 http://earthquake-report.com/ 37 http://blogs.state.gov/index.php/entires/haiti_reduce_vulnerability/
33

22

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

not occurred on the main fault as first signs indicated, but on complicated secondary faults. 38 Initial investigation results were published in the November 2010 issue of Nature Geoscience.39 In a country where awareness of earthquake hazard had been almost nonexistent, the USGS is working with other international agencies to help build a community of earthquake professionals who understand and can communicate the hazard to the Haitian public, media, and officials In the absence of good training for the population, in what to do in case of a quake, the result is often panic when one comes.40 Here are several maps including color coding USA as to where Earthquake risk is greatest.41 Perhaps the principle can be extended to other nations.

Earthquake predictions (1 May 11)

Earthquakes can and will strike again in the same place.42 Such as Port-au-Prince in 1751, 1770, and January 12, 2010. A lot of people are predicting earthquakes.43 How many of them are actually close to being correct? It is no good to predict one in USA, because almost every day there is one in Alaska. Wikipedia says the following, for an earthquake prediction to be considered any good:44       contain the expected magnitude with error limits; well defined area of the epicenter; range of dates; probability of this to come true; data from which the prediction was derived must be verifiable; analysis of these data must be reproducible.

Due to a growth in people making earthquake predictions, where their credentials are uncertain, many news stories attempt to correlate serious earthquakes with these predictions. Many of the writers have fragmentary info of what is known various places around the world, so frequently we find statements in the stories, we believe to be untrue.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n11/full/ngeo992.html http://www.nature.com/ngeo/index.html 40 http://earthquake-report.com/category/earthquake-linked-subjects/earthquake-preparedness/ 41 http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps 42 http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2765-haiti-earthquake-unfortunately-we-expect-other-earthquakes.html 43 http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm http://earthquakepredictionbytiempe.blogspot.com/ http://tobefree.wordpress.com/2011/03/16/earthquake-prediction-2011-jim-berkland-a-major-earthquake-innorth-america-imminent/ 44 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction
38 39

23

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

On May 11, 2011 many people stayed away from Rome Italy, due to an earthquake prediction, by the late Raffaele Bendandi.45 On May 11, 2011 there was an earthquake in Southern Spain.46 Any correlation? Not according to Wikipedia standards above. Who was Raffaele Bendandi?
    

Born in 1893 in central Italy In November 1923, he predicted a quake would strike on January 2, 1924 Two days after this date, it did, in Italian province of Le Marche Mussolini made him a Knight of the Order of the Crown of Italy But he also banned Bendandi from making public predictions, on pain of exile

Thus we can see that the same person can make several predictions. One, or more, bang on very accurate, others totally invalid. Lots of people have theories about what accompanies quakes, whether easier to detect the secondary effects, a lot of these theories have been discredited by prior scientists, but as detection science gets more sensitive, shouldn’t they be rechecked?

Tsunami Risks (1 May 24)
What to do47 if you are in an area of risk. NASA demonstrates Tsunami Prediction System. There has been some rethinking science regarding where they believe fault lines exist, and what kinds of activity likely to cause Tsunamis. Here's a report on some of this. Science Daily in 2005: Risk of major earthquakes and tsunamis in Caribbean.48 They summarize history, predict the inevitable, call for an early warning system and public education. LA Times: Haiti, Jamaica at greater tsunami risk than previously thought, study finds, and coastal California needs to be better prepared.49 The study was conducted to explain a mystery that popped up after the Haiti earthquake: Why were there so many reports of tsunamis in a region that wasn't supposed to have many? Even a 3-foot-high tsunami could bring in a wall of water moving at 40 mph. "It's nothing to mess with. It's like being hit by a car."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13357963 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13368599 47 http://emergencysociety.com/tsunami/ 48 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050205102502.htm 49 http://articles.latimes.com/2010/oct/12/local/la-me-tsunamis-20101012
45 46

24

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

The study,50 was published online October 2010 in the journal Nature Geoscience. The tallest tsunami ever recorded so far is the 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami, which had a record height of 524 m (1742 ft).51 Weather science includes storm surge with a hurricane ... the science does not yet know how come surge is not proportional to hurricane ferocity. Tsunamis of various intensities can be triggered by land slides, on land (from earthquakes) and underwater (from earthquakes and severe weather). There are tons of tales of people who watch sea movement with amazement, or taking pictures, who then get killed because they do not realize how dangerous this stuff is.

Tsunamis accompanying 2010 Jan Quake (1 May 11)

We now know the 2010 earthquake caused tsunamis which killed many people (not nearly as many as the quake), because no one expected them. In fact, it was many months before scientists figured out how come the tsunamis, when they had thought there were none. Within days of the quake, there were reports of land shifting into the sea such as in Ti Paradi? Maybe, on the way to Grand Goaves, had a person or more being washed by the swell that came in. Evidence in newscasts was a coconut tree standing quite a few yards in the middle of the ocean. Here’s a CNN story about how Haiti’s landscape was changed at time of 2010 Earthquake.52 Here’s a You Tube video, with links to similar ones.53 What they are describing, sure sounds to me like: (a) Tsunami phenomena; AND (b) Land subsidence to below sea level. Seismologists had made many predictions about earthquake risk on island of Hispaniola, before the 2010 Jan events, at the time, and after. What happened was not as accurately predicted as elsewhere in the world of earthquake forecasting which led to studies to figure out how come. This led to the discovery of more fault lines than they had known were there, which meant risk of tsunami higher than they previously realized. I believe that the topic of earthquakes and tsunamis should be part of the geography curriculum, with an effort to update the curriculum as this kind of new information comes out. Then there is the topic of disaster drills within a classroom - risk of flooding, cyclone, earthquake. Do you get under your classroom desks? Is there an especially sturdy location in

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n11/full/ngeo975.html you have to register to see the full article. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historic_tsunamis#North_America_and_the_Caribbean 52 http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2010/01/23/watson.paradise.lost.cnn.html Thanks to Mike Perrett for locating this link. 53 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwtxA5nB6cA
50 51

25

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

building, which can accommodate everyone in the building? Do you exit the building as rapidly as possible? Do you watch out for chasms opening in the ground? Do you stay away from hillsides which can turn into landslides, or do you climb for higher ground? Should the school hold a census of who is unaccounted for, maybe trapped inside, before the children run home? Do you have at-risk family members (elderly, disabled, etc.) who may need help getting to higher ground? This topic may not be part of "the environment of Haiti" but it is certainly part of "the environment of the students."

Wind Hazards (1 Feb 17)
I would assume that any adult in Haiti is well familiar with Wind Hazards, but maybe some of the newer NGO personnel are not, so that might explain the UN coming out with a Haiti Wind Hazard brochure. Summary: http://reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/VDUX-862MVF?OpenDocument&a... Full PDF downloadable from there. (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) In my explorations, I found where we can subscribe to NOAA Caribbean Sea Offshore Waters Forecast by e-mail or RSS, but I still needed to figure out which portion of this is most relevant to Haiti, what rises to the thresh-hold of worth sharing, and translate from climate geek to ordinary person understandability. According to Wikipedia, Port au Prince is 18.32 N, 72.20 W ... eventually I may need to get whole of Haiti ranges, but using that for now, which makes the following info relevant to Haiti. OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA.

Hurricane Intensities
Colorado State U April 2010 report expected 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June and November 2010, with four of them anticipated to form into Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes. So how serious are those?

26

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Hurricane Categories. I have trouble believing the transitional shelters, let alone homeless camp tent & tarp shelters, of Haiti can withstand even a category one hurricane.

Category One Hurricane (1 Apr 23)
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Multiple authorities, with the UN coordinated relief forces in Haiti, claim that the 2010+ Tshelters54 can withstand a category one Hurricane.

Category Two Hurricane
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

Category Three Hurricane
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category Four Hurricane
54

T-shelter = Transitional shelter, typically a wooden shack.

27

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category Five Hurricane (1 Apr 20)
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Katrina was a category five hurricane.

Haiti Historical Risks (1 Apr 08)
Haiti is at risk of tropical storms, any year. It is Russian Roulette, with an endless supply of bullets. Most of them will pass thru the Caribbean missing Haiti, but if one is going to visit Haiti, there is not a heck of a lot of advance warning, at best a few days. Since the 2010 January earthquake, over 1 million Haitians have been residing in tent cities and wooden shack villages, without adequate access to severe weather shelters (SWS). The island nation is overdue for the statistical probability that a devastating hurricane will sweep over those unprotected people. Due to El Nino and La Nina and other weather patterns over a longer time period (global warming), some years have greater risk of frequency and intensity of these storms. Thus, the more bullets thru the Caribbean, the greater the risk some will hit Haiti. Here’s statistics on natural and man made disasters in Haiti history, with significant death tolls, to help people see the capricious nature of the absence of good patterns of risk to help mitigate them in the future.

28

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

It has only been in recent years that science has captured information about storm surge and tsunamis. Historically they killed off any witnesses, so no one was the wiser about that threat. How far back in history patterns are studied, and how well overall science is understood, alters perceptions of risk. 55 1492 - Christopher Columbus discovered the island, and its previous native Arawak Taino Amerindian population, which was virtually annihilated by Spanish settlers within 25 years. Their precise death toll never recorded. In the early years of European colonists in the new world, the death toll to slaves was excluded from statistics of how many people got killed by natural disasters. There was a God awful war of Independence at conclusion of which France imposed an astronomical ransom. The war was over slavery, which was illegal in France when the war began, but apparently what is at home in a nation is different in its colonies. 1842 May – Earthquake, in the north, demolishes Cap-Haitian. 10,000 dead. 1915 – US invades Haiti, maintains direct control until 1947. Once again Haitians become slaves, even though slavery had been long illegal back home in USA. 1935 October - A tropical storm kills 2,000 plus in Jeremie. 1937 - 17,000 to 35,000 Haitians living in Dominican Republic, near Haitian border, are massacred by Dominican military. 1946 – Haiti has 8.1 magnitude earthquake, caused Tsunami which killed 1,790 people. 1954 October - Hurricane Hazel kills an estimated 1,000 Haitians, and severely damages Haitian agriculture. The Doc family comes to power. The toll under their rule is only now coming to light. 1963 October - Hurricane Flora does a lot of damage. 1964 September – Hurricane Cleo damages Grande Anse. 1966 September – Hurricane Ines damages Sud and Quest. 1979 August – Hurricane David hits Nord-Quest. 1980 August – Hurricane Allen hits South Coast.

55

http://meridian.aag.org/callforpapers/program/ParticipantDetail.cfm?IMISID=90049036&mtgID=56

29

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

1987 – Constitution of 1987 is enacted, written in both French and Haitian Creole. Large land-owners massacre hundreds of peasants for demanding land. Here is 1987 Haiti constitution translated into English. Confusing Aristide history. 1998 August – Hurricane Georges hits Quest-Center. 2004 May - Severe floods in south, and in parts of neighboring Dominican Republic, leave more than 2,000 dead or disappeared. 2004 June - UN peacekeepers take over security duties from US-led force and help flood survivors. 2004 July - International donors pledge more than $1bn in aid. 2004 September - Nearly 3,000 killed in flooding in the north, in the wake of tropical storm Jeanne. The combined natural disasters killed 5,000 people, impacted 300,000 Haitians, and destroyed 7% of Haiti GDP.56 Late 2004 - Rising levels of deadly political and gang violence in the capital. Did weather scientists see trouble coming? No, 2005 was a neutral season (Dennis, Wilma (TS Alpha merged with Wilma after hitting Haiti). 2005 July - Hurricane Dennis kills at least 45 people. 2007 - Hurricanes Dean and Noel killed 330 Haitians, affected 194,000 people, and destroyed 2% of GDP.57 Did weather scientists see next trouble coming? No, 2008 was a neutral season (Fay, Hannah, Ike, Gustav). 2008 May - US and World Bank announce extra food aid totaling 30m dollars. In response to plea from President Preval for more police to help combat wave of kidnappings-forransom, Brazil agrees to boost its peacekeeping force. 2008 August/September – Within one month, nearly 800 people are killed and hundreds are left injured as Haiti is hit by a series of devastating storms and hurricanes. Haiti is hit by

56

ALNAP Context Analysis, from GoH Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) 2010 Reconstruction effort.
57

ALNAP Context Analysis..

30

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Tropical Storm Fay; Hurricane Gustav; Tropical Storm Hanna; and Hurricane Ike. ¼ of economy destroyed. Over 1 million Haitians made homeless, or in need of aid. These storms caused significant damage to crops, and killed many farm animals (goats, pigs, cattle).58 The UN cluster system was used in Haiti for the first time, in response to the 2008 weather disasters, to try to coordinate different efforts by common themes. Journalists, covering this, should correlate lists of which NGOs are participating in particular clusters, with lists of NGOs overall, then ask those not participating, why not, then follow-up on their claims.59 2009 May - Former US President Bill Clinton appointed UN special envoy to Haiti. One of his jobs is to rebuild Haitian economy after the weather disasters. We might ask him when this task is supposed to get completed. 2009 July - World Bank and International Monetary Fund cancel $1.2bn of Haiti's debt 80% of the total - after judging it to have fulfilled economic reform and poverty reduction conditions. 2009 Dec 25 storm destroyed the pigeon pea and sorghum harvests (the bean harvest had already been particularly bad in July). It also killed animals and destroyed part of the seed stocks. 60 2009-2010 an epidemic killed off most all of Haiti’s pigs. Pigs are a staple for poor families, since they require very little maintenance, and are a source of food. 2010 January – An estimated 300,000 people are killed (lots of dispute over actual numbers) when a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake hits the capital Port-au-Prince and its wider region - the worst in the region in 200 years. Millions become homeless. Damage = 100% GDP.61 In fact, when compared to other disasters in human history, with respect to proportion of a nation or people impacted, this was one of the worst overall. Presidential palace demolished. Government leadership now from a police station near the airport. First arrivals consult with Preval there, sharing their plans, obtaining his approval.

58

See URD Feb 2011 magazine, mini-reviewed in my 1 year ICVA URD research notes.

See “Lessons Learned” section 3.2 of ALNAP Context Analysis, for the UN perspective. Riz Khan explains why the international NGO community does such a poor job of mutual cooperation in humanitarian aid.
59 60

See URD Feb 2011 magazine, mini-reviewed in my 1 year ICVA URD research notes.

61

ALNAP Context Analysis, which got it from GoH Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) 2010 associated with the Reconstruction effort.

31

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

The UN, and nations the world over, rush all sorts of aid to Haiti. US takes control of the main airport, with the approval of President Preval, to ensure orderly arrival of aid flights, and to upgrade the airport. Initially the control tower demolished, only room for 4 planes on ground at same time. US replaces control tower, expands ground space for planes, so that more and more can deliver aid each day. It takes several weeks before repairs make it possible for the airport to accommodate all which wish to land. However, if Preval fails to communicate with his people, to let them know what the Gov of Haiti is doing to help them, then it appears to the people like he is doing nothing. 62 In the aftermath of 2010 January earthquake, Haiti is hit by additional disasters, which are combination of natural and manmade, which I explore in more detail in other research notes.         2010 Severe Weather visitations Massive increase in disabled amputees getting almost zero support Surprise evictions of 1,000 encampments and counting Epidemic of rape and sexual assault Cholera Epidemic Other medical crises Haiti election politics accused of massive corruption. Public donors find zero confidence in accountability and transparency of organizations carrying out disaster relief efforts.

Understand El Nino and La Nina (1 Feb 17)
La Nina is partially responsible for 2010 hurricane season being more severe. There's also a larger season of seasons which impacts risk of how many really big major storms. There's also the question of climate change over a longer time frame. Some years El Nino or La Nina are stronger than other years.63

62 63

Winnipeg Free Press Aug 21. http://www.stormfax.com/elnino.htm

32

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

La Nina predicts less 2011 spring rain (1 Feb 17)
In 2010, there was El Nino in first part of the year, which meant more rain for Haiti rainy season. Then there was La Nina in second part of year, which meant higher risk of nasty storms in hurricane season. Right now continuing La Nina means less than usual rain for Haiti 2011 rainy season. Now comes 2011 news how long La Nina is expected to last vs. coming 2011 hurricane season. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Jan-25 that La Nina is expected to continue strong thru 1st quarter 2011, or 2-4 months, then begin to weaken. It is too soon to know what will happen with the La Nina / El Nino cycle this summer. http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/MUMA8DFVUY?OpenDocument&clickid=headlines (Source: OCHA/Relief Web)

La Nina stronger for 2010-2011 Winter (1 Feb 17)
El Niño/La Niña Update issued 2010 Oct 11 by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) informed us: o La Niña conditions may possibly further strengthen during the next four to six months. o Moderate to strong La Niña conditions are now well-established, and are likely to continue at least until the first quarter of next year. o El Niño/La Niña can last for 12 months or more and disrupt the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation, and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world accompanied by the associated climate-related risks. o Most of the report details were on impacts other than in the Caribbean.

WMO website: www.wmo.int Summary Report: (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/MUMA-8A637G?OpenDocume... Related Web Links: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

33

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

http://www.wmo.int/pages/members/members_en.html International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America, visit www.clivar.org/meetings/enso_2010.php Detail Report: (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/MUMA-8A637G/$File/full_report.pdf

Global Warming, Climate Change (1 Mar 08)
Coral Reefs are canaries in the coal mine of global warming, because they are so sensitive to the coming changes.64 While we might not care much about the ebb and flow of tides of natural changes to our planet, which have occurred many times in climate history, these canaries let us know which nations will be next to feel the harm from global warming. Countries highest on the risk register are Comoros, Fiji, Haiti, Indonesia, Kiribati, Philippines, Tanzania and Vanuatu. In addition to being a bulls-eye for more earthquakes, Pap is also a climate change bulls-eye for going below sea level, depending on what source you believe on how fast that is supposed to happen. My studies on this, none recent, are that planet Earth has cycles of warmer and cooler, which last at most a couple centuries. Some environmental speculation in mainstream news seems to believe the trend is that we will go in one direction without an end to it, so projections will melt all of Antarctica and all of the Arctic and all of Glaciers in the world, causing sea levels to rise period, without the consequences which supposedly happened on prior occasions, such as the lower salt density in oceans changing ocean currents. Politicization of global warming means that it is not being considered as a factor in planning better response to disasters around the world. When Haiti not buried in disaster response, the government has recognized this is something they ought to be planning for.65

Sea Level Rise from Climate Change (1 Apr 08)

We have all seen predictions that Global Warming will continue to melt Arctic and Antarctic contributing to a rise in sea level, threatening coastal communities. Various scientists try to measure the rate of the polar ice cap melting, so as to calculate how much this will be. 66

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12530439 http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/climate-change-just-one-worry-in-struggling-haiti 66 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7935159.stm
64 65

34

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)67 said in 2007 that sea levels would rise at least 28cm (1ft) by the year 2100. Various others have said this is an under-estimate, that it could be twice as much.68 This is an overall average. Apparently ice sheets such as those on Greenland or Antarctica gravitationally attract the water. This pulls the water towards coasts nearer the ice sheets, effectively making it pile up to an extent that can be measured in centimeters. Thus, the rise in sea level will not be the same everywhere on the planet. A Dutch team has made what appears to be the first attempt to model all the factors leading to regional variations.69

Climate Change links (1 Apr 08)
                        

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) United Nations (UN) United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva (UNEP) United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (UNEP) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) UN Gateway to Climate Change Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Global Environment Facility (GEF) Linkages by International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) IPCC Data Distribution Centre IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme IPCC Working Group I IPCC Working Group II IPCC Working Group III The Ozone Secretariat, UNEP United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Climate Change at the Open Directory Project Climate Change Resources from SourceWatch Climate Change from the UCB Libraries GovPubs Ocean Motion: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Climate Change Video Briefs United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Indigenous voices on climate change films Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge An online video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland Climate Change Performance Index 2010 List of Climate Change related Organizations

 

http://www.ipcc.ch/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change 69 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13011073
67 68

35

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

USA links
   

EPA Global Warming Site Resource Center Global Climate Change from NASA Climate Library at Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University

Canada Gov links
 

Science of Climate Change Taking Action on Climate Change

British links
 

Climate Change from the Met Office (UK) Climate Change on In Our Time at the BBC. (listen now)

Up-coming storm risks (1 May 07)
This is not an exact science, although it is improving. The longer people try to project the weather in advance, the lower the reliability of their forecasts. Do not expect good quality hurricane season forecasts until around May of that year. Some advance indications are useful, as efforts to try to continue to improve the science continues. There are also problems with the quality of historical data. There are people who believe the Atlantic is at low risk of Tsunamis, because of the shape of land and earthquakes that trigger them, but this is an incomplete understanding of all which can cause them, an incomplete understanding of earthquake sources, and in early history before modern communications, people could be wiped out in a storm, with no witnesses to supply credible information. Information about Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) forecasts and verifications may be obtained from http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Haiti Hurricane Mitigation (1 May 07)
In 2010, 16 hurricanes came close to Haiti without doing too much damage, according to Marie Mirlène Ladouceur, of the Section of Humanitarian Affairs and Development (HDCS) of the Minustah. Numerous hurricanes are expected again in 2011, but even if their number can be estimated, it is not easy to estimate their intensity or the areas which they will affect.70 UN planning, for Hurricanes, in the past have focused on organization of NGO supplies so that they can continue to do their important work. UN plans, in the past, have ignored the need to replenish the supply of severe weather shelters which were destroyed by the 2010
70http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2886-haiti-climate-preparations-for-the-beginning-of-the-hurricane-

season.html

36

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

earthquake, or which have greater capacity needs due to population relocated in the aftermath of the quake and cholera epidemic. In 2011 there are some revisions to this planning. Some international organizations are preparing an information campaign to be launched on June 1, 2011. During this campaign flyers with photos will be distributed to the public. The June 2011 campaign plans to prepare a family emergency kit containing the products necessary for survival during a week like flashlights, food and medicines, among others.71 This effort won’t be much help to the over ½ million Haitians still in camps with tents and tarps, or the ¼ million Haitians in T-shelters, which can at best withstand a level-1 hurricane, and many of which have been built on known flood plains. This is because many international efforts are designed in ignorance of Haiti reality, how it is different from reality in the nations where the efforts are designed.

2011 Hurricane names (1 June 01)
Their names and pronunciations:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION ------------------------------------------------------------ARLENE AR LEENLEE LEE BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEPFRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE IRENE EYE REENVINCE VINSS JOSE HO ZAYWHITNEY WHIT- NEE KATIA KA TEE- AH

2011 Hurricane Season how intense? (1 May 19)
Here I share the latest forecasts, and contrary views, with the most recent information up top. When viewing the data, remember that many hurricanes never make landfall near areas of interest to us. May 22-28, is US national Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
71http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2886-haiti-climate-preparations-for-the-beginning-of-the-hurricane-

season.html

37

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

In mid-May, the Christian Science Monitor quotes National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), that the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will probably be another above average year in activity.72 The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.released May 19,73 forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center are expecting:     a 70 percent chance of 12 to 18 storms with tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or higher). 6 to 10 of the storms are expected to grow into hurricanes. (winds 74 mph or higher) 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes. (Category 3 4 or 5 with winds 111 mph or higher.)

Unfortunately, people can experience "hurricane amnesia," adds Craig Fugate, who heads the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in Washington. He is referring to the long time spans that can elapse between landfalling hurricanes in any one location, and the tendency of people to forget how serious the storms can be. Some people may not have experienced the full force of a hurricane, and thus falsely think they need not take advised precautions. 2010 had the 3rd most active Atlantic hurricane season, since these statistics started being gathered. There are several reasons why the outlook is for increased activity, vs. past years. Read the articles for more info.74 There’s what’s happening, immediate causes, and speculation about long term trends. The quality of the data is dependent on satellites whose life is drawing to a close, need to be replaced, but there are funding challenges with the Congressional budget.

2011 April Colorado Hurricane Totals (1 Apr 06)
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2011 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) Named Storms (NS) (9.6) Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) Hurricanes (H) (5.9) Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) Issue Date 8 December 2010 17 85 9 40 5 Issue Date 6 April 2011 16 80 9 35 5

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0519/Conditions-in-Atlantic-ripe-for-big-2011-hurricane-seasonUS-says 73 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html 74 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
72

38

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 1950-2000 Average Named Storms (NS) Named Storm Days (NSD) Hurricanes (H) Hurricane Days (HD) Major Hurricanes (MH) Major Hurricane Days (MHD)

10 165 180

10 160 175

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)

9.6 49.1 5.9 24.5 2.3 5.0

2011 April Clarifications by Dennis (1 Apr 06)

I had questioned some of the numbers, seeing excessively high in some charts, relative to others, speculating perhaps I was misreading what they meant.

The data reflected in the report and Excel Sheet refers to the "eye" or center of the storm. When information and reports say "landfall" it is meant to refer to the center or eye of the hurricane / tropical system making actual landfall in a given area.
The numbers in Colorado State University's reports refer to the total number of tropical systems. This is why you will see such high numbers in their detailed reports. Below is a basic guide and not written in technical terms.      The total numbers in the report will include any of the following:

Tropical Wave - an area of disturbed weather of a tropical nature - heavy /
clustered rains

Tropical System - similar to above with a slightly more organized characteristics
or potential for further development. and winds from 39 - 74 MPH

Tropical Storm - Organized tropical weather system with organized circulation Hurricane - Strong tropical system with sustained circulation and sustained winds
in excess of 74 MPH. Categories 1 - 5

39

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Alister, you are correct in the statement of the sizes of some of the systems / storms. In the

larger storms, the clouds and rain bands can be as much as 500

- 600 miles

across. Obviously, they get increasingly stronger the closer to the center you go.
The strongest hurricane winds always occur near the center of the storms, directly outside the eye. Tropical Storm winds outside the hurricane strength area may extend up to a couple hundred miles or more across. Giving the example of a medium (120 MPH) sized hurricane moving westward, with the center 100 miles south side of Haiti, it is very possible to have hurricane force winds (75+ MPH) across the southern half of Haiti. Also, Tropical Storm force winds (39 - 74 MPH) could still occur across most any area of the country. With an average speed of 16 - 18 MPH movement, these kind of winds can be expected up to and possibly over a 24 - 36 period. Any of these sized winds can do heavy damage, especially to an already fragile area. Most any of the tents and shelters will be taken down by winds in excess of 40 MPH. On a positive note, the majority of the projections are based on impact in the United States. The tropical systems progressively get stronger as they move westward. The very strong systems are possible across Haiti, but usually not the very extreme strong ones. This is bad for the U.S. and Mexico, but better for this area of Hispaniola. This does Not mean Haiti will miss being impacted. We can and should very well expect tropical systems to impact Haiti this year. As a note to this also;   The strongest winds and rains are always on the Northeast Quadrant if the storm is moving from South to North. If it is moving West, the strongest will be on the Northwest Quadrant.

This makes any system in the Southern Caribbean (south of Haiti) more likely to make some type of impact to Haiti, even if the eye does not make landfall. We can expect Heavy Rains and Strong Winds sometime this hurricane season. The strong and long duration rains WILL cause flooding across certain areas. I hope that clarifies some of the information. Dennis Dennis Sherrod Chairman

40

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org

2011 April Colorado Landfall Probabilities (1 Apr 06)

When initially posted below, I am not seeing all of Dennis referenced attachments, but I downloaded and can share some of the conclusions.
Hurricane 2011 Apr Caribbean Landfall Probabilities is an Excel with two sheets. Current Forecast Sheet predicts 175 weather events with probabilities of which will come how close to Haiti, and each of the other nations of the region. I bolded the Haiti line to make it easier to read.

     

56% Probability of 1 or more named storms tracking within 50 miles of Haiti. Up to 48 of them. 34% Probability of 1 or more hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of Haiti. Up to 24 of them. 16% Probability of 1 or more major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of Haiti. Up to 10 of them. 71% Probability of 1 or more named storms tracking within 100 miles of Haiti. Up to 71 of them. 43% Probability of 1 or more hurricanes tracking within 100 miles of Haiti. Up to 32 of them. 22% Probability of 1 or more major hurricanes tracking within 100 miles of Haiti. Up to 14 of them.

Climatology Sheet does the same kind of probabilities based on 1900-2000 history.

Since the most powerful storms can be 250 miles across, with worst winds on the outside, so 50200 miles away from the eye of a hurricane is not a safe distance, I asked Dennis if the probabilities within 50 and 100 miles are for distance from eye, or distance from effects, and how far from the eye are the effects for each kind.

2011 April Colorado Projection via Dennis (1 Apr 06)
He shared the following at MPHISE:75

75

http://haiti.mphise.net/node/911

41

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

The annual forecast for the 2011 hurricane season has been issued by Colorado State University. Dennis says their forecast and predictions are the most reliable and accurate yearly. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/april2011/apr2011.pdf
This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Of particular interest in this 44 page document are pages 2, 19, 24, 27, 28, 29. Dennis says what all of the report boils down to is that there is a slight increase in the total projections for storms this year over last year, in the Caribbean. But, by the review of the Caribbean Landfall Probability Chart, Haiti while being prone to these storms, may see less of an direct impact chance compared to previous years. See attached into MPHISE is Landfall Probability Chart for the Caribbean for 2011. As a reminder; everyone should keep in mind these are only long range forecast and they are not definitive. In-depth hurricane plans should be made and in place when and if the storms do begin. Please let me know if you have any questions. Dennis Dennis Sherrod Chairman Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org

2011 February are bold guesses says Dennis (1 Feb 16)

Information, below cited by Tony, includes good information, but Dennis Sherrod, Chairman of Alert 1 Weather, Inc. says, in mid February, that "predictions" being made and posted are mostly bold guesses at best. He maintains as he has said daily for the past few weeks, it is mostly too early in the season to make any reasonable predictions. 76 1. The TSRAT forecast published December 06, 2010, itself claims, that their prediction success is low over a 30 year period. 2. The second article entitled "2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook" also
http://www.Alert1Weather.org

76

42

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

clearly states: "Keep in mind that forecasts made this early before the season are subject to very large errors." 3. Jeff from Weather Underground is an excellent and well known meteorologist. Analyzing what he wrote and his graphics, it is clear that he also feels it is too soon to accurately predict and at best it would be a neutral season. That is a excellent prediction at this time, so we should stay in the middle. 4. NOAA / NWS maintains a middle of the road approach at this time also and are not making definitive predictions or statements yet. Now, will see a change from the current La Nina to an El Nino pattern that will change how hurricane season affects certain areas? NOAA's Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Niña will be gone by June. It will change, but no one knows yet when, or if it will affect the 1st part or last part of the season, if at all. Will the storms be more likely to take a due westerly course, drift northward or stay south across the Caribbean? No one knows yet. You will not know until the storms develop and know what the current predictions are. My personal opinion is that is not reasonable at this point to say we will or will not have a stronger tropical season affecting Hispaniola. We should not concentrate on whether the season will have more or less hurricanes this year. We need to concentrate on the known factors that there will be more and stronger rains coming as the summer months approach. Under the current and ongoing living conditions and lack of infrastructure of Haiti, we can very well deduce there will be major problems from any substantial rains, especially of the tropical nature. These will come as they do every year. Hurricanes and strong tropical storms of stronger rains and higher winds obviously jeopardize and affect many more people. As Alister, others, and myself understand, the housing and other structures are not made for the long duration rains and winds. The materials the tents are made of are not made for everyday tropical use in excess of 1 year solid use. They will not stand up to the conditions. We saw just a small portion of this in 2010 year when the minimal Hurricane Tomas affected Haiti. This was a minimal storm and fast moving causing less damage than normal from a normal moving East to due West storm.

43

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

What we must do is not focus on how many or how few hurricanes of if the season will be more or less intense. We must focus on making as many prior arrangements for securing the people and property for the coming tropical season. As I have been saying, make the preparations now while we still have the drier conditions and do not wait until the season arrives. Materials are in a short enough supply now. Waiting will mostly guarantee it will be much harder, if possible, to get what you need. Dennis Sherrod Haiti MPHISE Logistics and Security

Dennis Sherrod Chairman Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org

2011 Feb-March projections via Tony (1 Mar 09)
The following information was shared early in February 2011, then some more links early March 2011. Tony R. Myhre who is President & CEO - Jet City Consulting & Investigations has been providing to his consulting / disaster risk and response security customers and operations personnel a thought process that the 2011 hurricane season may be relatively intense. 77 Here below are several leading climate scholars independent findings and speculative forecasts, all of which share a common theme – the 2011 season may be nearly as active as 2010: 1. 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook – Weather Underground. Very detailed explanation of thought processes, with graphics and data supporting. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MiamiHurricanes09/comment.html?entr ynum=114

Thanks to Tony for sharing this illuminating info. http://www.linkedin.com/in/professionalsecurityconsultant
77

http://www.jetcityci.com/

44

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

2. TSRATL Forecast by Tropical Storm Risk – a group operating out of the Space and Climate Physics Department and the University College in London, UK.78 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2011.pdf http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/08/us-weather-hurricanesidUSTRE6B74CQ20101208 - Colorado State University predictions of above average, 2010 like season. http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2011/01/03/2011-expected-to-be-another-busyhurricane-season - CSU & WSI (Weather Services International, a weather risk think tank) – note that the two independent entities are making the same predictions relative to the intensity and number of storms. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html - Dr. Jeff Masters, a renowned former National Hurricane Center hurricane expert, discussing how the set up for a transition to El Nino conditions in the Atlantic and Carribean does not appear to be coming in time to diminish the impact of storms by increasing vertical wind shear on the storms, thereby making them less powerful. These are all speculations. We don’t know how bad it is going to be, in any given year. Where continuity planning, risk mitigation, response planning and development, evacuation protocols, plans and mechanisms are concerned, resource allocation and budgeting for a "worst case scenario" is generally the best approach, as is evidenced by the response, mitigation and continuity plans Tony has followed which were of others designs, and subsequently developed and executed in the field in varying capacities as a government employee, contractor and corporate security director.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
The Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University forecast that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season would bring above-average activity. Britain's official weather forecaster the Met Office reported that the North Atlantic could see above average tropical storm activity in 2010. "There are key indicators, such as sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which determine how active a storm season is likely to be. These indicators currently suggest above-normal activity for the upcoming season," Met Office climate scientist Joanne
Thanks to Tony, I have downloaded this into my Weather documents collection.

78

45

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Camp said. There were only 9 tropical storms in 2009, making it one of the quietest years in a decade. El Nino might have contributed to that. In the 2010 Hurricane Season, the US National Weather Service started using different scales for tropical storm wind velocities (charted elsewhere in these research notes), expected size of storm surge, and flooding. This is because past year systems have been misleading. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is produced by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), in collaboration with scientists from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the US Hurricane Research Division (HRD). Here is link to the whole story, that was published May 27. This link in turn has links to the science involved, and more information on the analysis. They estimated a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season: * 14-23 Named Storms, * 8-14 Hurricanes * 3-7 Major Hurricanes * An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median. The ACE value means an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season. This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. There are many reasons for uncertainty, including: 1. Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill. 2. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity. 3. Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

46

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

4. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Weather Service International (WSI) made a July 21 microscopic change in predictions for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. They expect “an extremely active” season in August through October with 19 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 status or greater. (Category 3 = Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr)) (in June WSI was predicting 20 named storms.) Not all of this stuff will hit Haiti, but the odds are pretty good that at least one will be there, maybe more than one. The forecast includes an Increased Northeast US Threat. The coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year. El Nino has now vanished. Although hurricane season seemed slow to get started, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005. This indicates the intensity of hurricanes will be more vigorous than in past years when the Atlantic sea surface was not as warm.

2010 Tomas

Hurricane Tomas was a glancing blow at best, with a high central pressure, and a tight center. Probably 95% - 98% of the tents withstood this. Obviously not a typical tropical system for this region. It was of a "normal" type for a late year, non typical tropical system. When a typical strong tropical storm, not even of hurricane strength comes through on a direct path of any area of tent cities or sub standard shelters, we will see much more disastrous results in the ability to withstand the rains and winds.

47

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

We must not get locked into a mindset of whether a season is going to be bigger, smaller, or equal to previous years. All it will take is just one storm to affect an area that is unprepared and unable to protect themselves.

Volcanoes
Soufrière Hills volcano located on island of Montserrat (one of the Leeward islands of the Lesser Antilles) not far SE from Haiti has been having "mild" activity, but we should monitor for ash plumes disrupting air traffic, and risk of earthquake, if it gets worse than mild. Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) is one place to check regarding latest status. SOUFRIERE HILLS Montserrat 16.72°N, 62.18°W; summit elev. 915 m http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1600-05= Map http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?content=maps#monty Geologic Summary. The complex dominantly andesitic Soufrière Hills volcano occupies the southern half of the island of Montserrat. The summit area consists primarily of a series of lava domes emplaced along an ESE-trending zone. English's Crater, a 1-km-wide crater breached widely to the E, was formed during an eruption about 4,000 years ago in which the summit collapsed, producing a large submarine debris avalanche. Block-and-ash flow and surge deposits associated with dome growth predominate in flank deposits at Soufrière Hills. Non-eruptive seismic swarms occurred at 30-year intervals in the 20th century, but with the exception of a 17th-century eruption that produced the Castle Peak lava dome, no historical eruptions were recorded on Montserrat until 1995. Long-term small-to-moderate ash eruptions beginning in that year were later accompanied by lava-dome growth and pyroclastic flows that forced evacuation of the southern half of the island and ultimately destroyed the capital city of Plymouth, causing major social and economic disruption.

US natural phenomena (1 May 24)
There is other natural phenomena that places people in USA at risk, but is not a Haiti problem. Also, Haiti has not yet been targeted by international terrorism.79

79

http://emergencysociety.com/terrorism/

48

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Tornadoes (1 May 24)
I do not believe Haiti gets Tornadoes, but there is a US interest80 in this seasonal threat. The number of confirmed tornado occurrences has increased in the USA. 81 Is this due to better weather observance, global warming, or we just don’t know? Mobile homes are not safe from them, so being in our automobile is no better. According to the National Weather Service,    90 twisters were catalogued nationally in 1916; there were 249 in 1949; and an average of 1,377 annually for 2008 through 2010.

The number of tornado reports exploded in 1953, the year the Weather Bureau (precursor agency to the NWS) began issuing tornado watches. The watches increased public awareness of tornadoes at the same time the Weather Bureau began assembling tornado reports in order to assess tornado watch accuracy. A larger, denser and more tornado-savvy population and improving communication appear to be the most plausible explanation for the increasing number of tornado sightings through the years. Between 8 a.m. Wednesday and the same time Thursday, 340 people were killed in the storms.82 That made April 27, 2011, the deadliest single day for tornadoes since the March 18, 1925, tornado outbreak which left 747 dead in seven states. 362 tornadoes struck affected area during three-days April 25-28, 2011 including 312 in 24 hours.83 This eclipsed previous record of 148 tornadoes over two days in 1974.

Winter Storms (1 May 24)
Haiti and tropics do not get these, but there is a US interest.84 Remember, if there is a special name for a weather phenomena (blizzard), that means it is especially bad.

Wild Fires (1 Jun 08)
Some large portions of USA, particularly Florida and California, seem to have seasonal fires out of control.85 Mismanagement of our woodlands, particularly surrounding human habitation, allegedly contributes to this.

http://emergencysociety.com/PaulP/blog/tornado-preparedness/ http://emergencysociety.com/tornados/ http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/weather/ct-wea-0503-asktom-20110502,0,4521882.story 82 http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/05/number_of_confirmed_tornadoes.html 83 http://www.rttnews.com/Content/GeneralNews.aspx?Id=1612469&SM=1 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/alabama-tornado-outbreak-visuals-jawdropping-radar-and-satellite-imagery/2011/04/29/AFg1C5YF_blog.html http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/05/number_of_confirmed_tornadoes.html 84 http://emergencysociety.com/winter-storms/ 85 http://emergencysociety.com/wildfire/
80 81

49

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Here are several maps including color coding USA as to where Flood risk is greatest. 86

Useful Downloads (1 Feb 17)
I have downloaded several documents from the various actors running Haiti Disaster relief, which are relevant to Haiti Weather expectations and planning to avoid more disasters. I can upload these to various mutually convenient Internet sites so my friends can cherry pick which of my research documents (some by me, some in my collection from other sources) they would also like to have a copy of.  Food Security Forecast Seasons o As of June 2010 o Haiti is now at end of Hunger Season, and o start of Fear Season (where people know Hurricane Season has started, but don't know arrangements for Bad Weather Community Shelters). o This seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events shows when malnutrition increases in general, and could help forecast changes in disease risk, this periodic report also shows WHERE malnutrition worst. Map Hurricane Tracks = Hurricane storm tracks 1970-2009: history does repeat. Map Leogane Flood Risk = Haiti disaster relief actors are building new housing on flood plains, so for people in that area this map can help show which housing is likely to not be a good place to provide shelter in major storms. Shelter Weather = Spring and Summer 2010 maps of WHERE there are buildings which have been inspected as being safe to protect the population of Haiti in the event of a severe storm. Deciphering these maps to focus on street location, landmarks, actually locate the buildings, is something which will take a while, so people need to use this info long in advance of bad weather, to figure out where the shelters are actually located. Weather Warnings = important info Haitians need, how to be safe in the next disaster, which the UN considers to be confidential from the people who most need that info, perhaps because the Gov of Haiti has declared some info to be national security secret.

  

In addition to these downloads from external sources, Al Mac also has other research notes of relevance to this general topic. Check out for example: 

Glossary of Housing Challenges in Haiti – a starting point in Al’s

collection of research notes about various barriers to rebuilding Haiti back better … there are pointers inside this starting point to the rest of the collection. One issue is the vast number of Haitians in housing which will not survive a major tropical storm.

86

http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps

50

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Haiti Aid Info Navigation Guide – This is a directory of sources of

information about the major contributors to different kinds of aid to Haiti relief and reconstruction. Included in there is lots of info, including links to sites about: o Weather services mentioned in the summary section; o various tropical weather disturbances in 2010, such as Hurricane Tomas and the Sep-24 surprise; o Severe Weather Shelters; o Gov of Haiti weather forecast and prediction capability; 

Haiti Maps – a directory of approx 100 different places which have maps

organizing information in many interesting and useful ways. Start with the chapter on Science Maps.

Version History (1 Apr 22)
I have been uploading my research notes to various places for the convenience of people to cherry pick which of my documents they would like to have a copy of. If you go to any one of these places, you will probably find a varied selection of my efforts. http://www.haiti.prizm.org/ I share a lot of my research links and documents with the Yahoo Group: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HaitiDisasterRecoveryResearch/ For this document, and related topics, check out Files / Next Disaster Protection / in that Yahoo HDRR group. On Scribd I am user AlMac99.87 Some of my documents there are blank after first few pages. This one had all 20 pages visible when I uploaded an earlier version 2011 Feb 16. Here is my Linked In profile, available to people who are not members of Linked In. 88 If you are a Linked In member, selecting Full Profile, then scrolling down to Al’s Files, you will see several folders, which may intrigue you, including some of my Haiti Research. I invite you to: download whatever interests you; and-or become one of my LI contacts. Check out some of the LI groups I am active in. If you are not a Linked In member, it will first take you through a process of joining. To make much use of LI, you need to flesh out your profile, and make a few connections.

87 88

http://www.scribd.com/explore http://www.linkedin.com/in/almacintyre

51

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

My files, on Linked In, use an application from Box Net. You could join Box Net, instead of Linked In, as an alternative way of getting at my shared files. Search for me there under macwheel99.  Early in 2011 we began to see multiple warnings of what 2011 weather might be for Haiti, so I began to consolidate notes which I had had previously in multiple different places, to end up in this one document to be improved over time.

52

Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful