By Timur Abimanyu, SH.

MH

The Washington Post

SHARIA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY PLAYS

GROWING POLITICAL ROLE IN MIDE EAST

ISTANBUL, Turkey -- As Egypt

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA, The Associated Press, Sunday, February 20, 2011;
erupted a few weeks ago, one fellow Muslim country insistently urged President Hosni
Mubarak to respond to popular demands. That country was Turkey.

The call was a sign of Turkey's growing confidence and stature in the Middle East and
beyond. Hobbled by economic and political chaos just a decade ago, Turkey is increasingly
taking on the role of regional model, mediator and leader, with a solid economy and an
evolving democracy. It has sought to balance many of the forces that shape, and shake, the
region: The East and the West, Israel and Iran, religion and secularism.
As elections approach in June, results of a new Associated Press-GfK poll suggest that
Turkey's government will pursue a path of relative pragmatism, despite fears of the
influence of Islam on the state.

Turkey still aspires to join the European Union, but that once-strong vision appears to have
faded. The poll shows that 52 percent of respondents want Turkey to stay in NATO, and 50
percent want to join the European Union. Yet 42 percent have an unfavorable view of the
EU, reflecting frustration with a process that has stalled partly because of European
opposition and the slow pace of Turkish reform.
Views of individual European nations are positively acid. Only 16 percent of respondents
held a favorable view of Germany, and that was high. Other favorable views were at 12
percent for Italy, 11 percent for Spain, 9 percent for the Britain, 6 percent for France and
just 5 percent for neighboring Greece, a traditional antagonist. European leaders fared just as
badly, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy scoring a positive rating of 4 percent.

"This dream of a rosy-pink Europe, once so powerful that even our most anti-Western
thinkers and politicians secretly believed in it, has now faded," Turkey's Nobel laureate,
author Orhan Pamuk, wrote in an essay published in The Guardian newspaper in December.
"This may be because Turkey is no longer as poor as it once was. Or it could be because it is
no longer a peasant society ruled by its army, but a dynamic nation with a strong civil
society."

(The AP-GfK Poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate
Communications in November and December, and was based on interviews with 1,200
adults ages 18 and older. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.)
A key question is to what extent Islam will change a society with a strong secular tradition,
imposed by war hero Mustafa Kemal Ataturk when he founded the country in 1923 after the
collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
For example, the government recently imposed new restrictions on the sale and
advertisement of alcohol, forcing sports clubs to stop putting beer ads on the jerseys of their
players and ending the sale of alcohol on highways. Alcohol is banned in Islam. But in
facing a barrage of criticism from pro-secular circles, the government said the curbs protect
young people and have nothing to do with religious sentiment.

The number of pro-Islamic television channels, which air programs praising the virtues of
Islam, also is on the rise. According to the AP-GfK poll, 85 percent of respondents called
religion an "extremely" or "very" important part of their lives.
A majority, 63 percent, said women should be free to wear the Islamic head scarf in
universities. The head scarf is banned in schools and government offices, but the
government has sought to scrap the ban, an explosive issue in the contest between
government supporters and military-backed secular circles. Many universities already ignore
the ban.
Yet for all the importance of religion in their lives, 65 percent of poll respondents said
religious leaders should stay out of government. Only 17 percent said religious leaders
should have a say in government, reflecting comfort with the idea of secular institutions.

Canan Sahin, 31, reflects the tightrope Turkey walks between the East and the West. Sahin's
family migrated to Istanbul from the provinces in the 1970s, and lived for years on the
outskirts. One of seven children, she graduated from an Islamic high school and wears an
Islamic head scarf.
"Turkey is moving toward the East, and I approve it," Sahin said. Yet she also supports the
European bid: "In terms of human rights and economics, it can propel Turkey forward."
Especially striking are views toward former ally Israel. The poll found that most
respondents - 53 percent - wanted to cut diplomatic relations with Israel, especially after its
deadly raid on a Turkish aid ship bound for Gaza last year. Israel and Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu earn the most negative ratings in the poll, at 77 percent unfavorable
and 69 percent unfavorable.

Yet the position against Israel does not come out of any love for the Palestinian Authority.
Only 22 percent had a favorable opinion of it, compared to 37 percent unfavorable.
Nor do Turks support the claim of Israel's archenemy, Iran, that its nuclear program is
peaceful. Half of poll respondents said they believe Tehran is developing atomic weapons.
Some commentators think Turkey, which is shedding military involvement in politics,
should be a transition model for Egypt, where the military says it will rule until elections are
held. In a Feb. 1 speech to ruling party lawmakers, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan said his government had always stood up for democracy and urged Egypt's to do
the same.
"We will all die and be questioned for what we left behind. We will all go into two square
meters of land," he said, alluding to a burial plot. "Therefore, I'm asking you to listen to the
people's voice and their uttermost humane demands. Welcome the will of the nation for
change without any hesitation."

They were lofty words, but critics see inconsistency in Turkey's embrace of Iran, a major
source of energy, despite its poor human rights record. On a visit to Iran a week ago, Turkey
appeared to depart from its relative silence on Iran's repressive political system when
Turkish President Abdullah Gul urged governments in the Middle East to listen to the
demands of their people.
Turkey's democracy has other flaws. The Kurdish minority has long suffered discrimination,
and Kurdish rebels still hold out after taking up arms in 1984. Even today, despite a
government outreach, 51 percent of respondents oppose giving more legal and political
rights to the Kurdish people in Turkey.

Also, activists complain of police abuse, long pretrial detention and the use of anti-terrorism
laws to muzzle dissent. In January, Human Rights Watch said: "Turkey's foreign policy
ambitions would be greatly reinforced by bold domestic reform on rights."The poll suggests
that more than half of Turks themselves believe they will get into trouble for saying some
things in politics, or even just about anything in politics. However, a sizable minority of 29
percent said they feel completely free to speak their minds.
One test was the Jan. 15 inauguration of a 52,000-seat football stadium in Istanbul, meant to
highlight Turkish know-how and spirit. Some fans heckled the prime minister, who left the
state-funded arena in anger. Prosecutors opened an investigation, raising worries about
threats to free expression.

"Since when is booing a prime minister a crime?" said Evrim Erdogus, a 30-year-old
electrical engineer who plans to vote for the main opposition party. "I don't want to hear
about how Turkey is becoming `democratic.'"
Ekrem Gozenman, 29, an operational manager for a trading firm, studied in the United
States and plans to vote for the ruling party, despite what he said were its shortcomings.

Gozenman said: "I still believe that they paved the way for democratic reform in Turkey."
Economic issues are far and away most often cited as the country's top problem, with 45
percent naming the economy or unemployment as the most pressing issue. About 69 percent
called unemployment an extremely serious concern.
Turkey's economy grew nearly 7 percent in 2010, doubling its deficit as the country
imported more raw material and fuel. But the majority of Turkey's 74 million people are
young, and the unemployment rate in October for those between the ages of 15 and 24 was
about 21 percent - more than 10 percentage points higher than the average jobless rate,
according to the government.

However, Turkey is democratic enough, with enough opportunities and outlets, that an
Egypt-style uprising of the discontented is almost unthinkable.
The United States does little better than Europe in the eyes of Turks - 55 percent hold an
unfavorable view of the United States and 49 percent of President Barack Obama. Those
negative views are likely due, at least in part, to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, viewed by
many in the region as a neo-imperial war against Muslims. Turkey has since joined
Washington in pushing for political stability in Iraq, and Turkish firms do brisk business in
the Kurdish-dominated region of northern Iraq.

If Turks do not trust the United States or Europe, mankind does no better. About 84 percent
of Turks say you "need to be very careful in dealing with" most people.
This prickliness may come out of a nationalism rooted long in the past. The carving up of
the Ottoman Empire by foreign powers spawned mistrust, and historical enmities with
Greece and Armenia have yet to be overcome.
For one e-commerce consultant, Turkey is even now emerging from the shadow of the
empire, whose foundations lay in military might.

"Turkey is new to the idea of foreign policy," said Basar Baltas, whose father was once
psychologist for the national football team. "It is now learning how to form strategies and
alliances."
Turkey is a member of the G-20 group of major economies, and it recently had a
nonpermanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. But a failed attempt with Brazil to broker
an Iranian nuclear deal, a move that irked Washington, show the limits of its international
brokering. Similarly, its unique role as a Muslim ally of Israel, and possible interlocutor
with the Jewish state's Middle East foes, is on hold.

However, a 2010 U.S. Embassy cable released by WikiLeaks, the secret-spilling website,
concludes that the Islamic hue of the Turkish government does not entail rejection of the
West.
"At the end of the day we will have to live with a Turkey whose population is propelling
much of what we see," wrote James Jeffrey, then ambassador. "Turkey will remain a
complicated blend of world class `Western' institutions, competencies, and orientation, and
Middle Eastern culture and religion."
=============================
Illustration By Timur Abimanyu, SH.MH.

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