Model Question Paper

Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F)
Section A : Basic Concepts (30 Marks)
• This section consists of questions with serial number 1 - 30.
• Answer all questions.
• Each question carries one mark.
• Maximum time for answering Section A is 30 Minutes.

1.
Which of the following statements is/are false with respect to the Price to Book Value (P/BV) ratio?
I. P/BV ratio can be calculated even for firms with negative earnings.
II. If a firm has continuous negative earnings, the book value of equity can become negative leading to a
negative P/BV ratio.
III. When the required rate of return increases, the P/BV ratio goes up.
(a) Only (I) above
(b) Only (III) above
(c) Both (I) and (II) above
(d) Both (I) and (III) above
(e) All (I), (II) and (III) above.
2.
If a vertical rally or a decline is interrupted by a consolidation pattern akin to a rectangle, such a formation is
called
(a) Saucers and Rounding Tops
(b) Double Tops and Bottoms
(c) Head and Shoulders
(d) Gaps
(e) Flags.
3.
The market rate of interest on 2-year bond is 8.63% while the rate on one year bond is 8.21%. The forward rate
on a one year bond, one year from now is 8.45%. Assuming pure expectations theory holds good, the liquidity
premium to induce investors to hold the 2 year bond is
(a) 0.30%
(b) 0.46%
(c) 0.52%
(d) 0.61%
(e) 0.74%.
4.
Which of the following statements is false with respect to the forward contracts?
(a) Terms are structured to suit both the contracting parties
(b) Traders have no compulsion to deposit initial margin irrespective of their trading positions
(c) No organization guarantees the performance of the counterparty
(d) Traders have to pay daily settlement margin depending on the movement in the price
of the underlying stock
(e) It is an over-the-counter product.
5.
Which of the following reduces assets and stockholder’s equity?
(a) Stock splits
(b) Cash dividends
(c) Stock dividends
(d) Reverse stock splits
(e) Bonus issues.
6.
Which of the following principles is true while analyzing trend line penetrations?
(a) The lesser the number of peaks/troughs that touch a trendline, the greater is its significance
(b) The breadth of a trendline indicates whether a penetration is significant or not
(c) A steep trendline is easily violated by small sideward movements in the price chart and is not
particularly useful in identifying reversals
(d) Penetration of a steep trendline results in a corrective movement after which the new trend starts
(e) When the peaks of rallies reach the trend line and then return with penetration, the recurrence of this
tendency indicates that the trend “obeys” the trendline.
7.
Swagat Housing Ltd. has a project of constructing a Multiplex in Hyderabad. The project is financed by 35%
equity and the remaining from issuance of bonds bearing a coupon rate of 7.5% p.a. maturing in 7 years. The
required rate of return for equity holders is 20%. If a sinking fund is established to redeem the bonds, the
capitalization rate is
(a) 12.51%
(b) 13.49%
(c) 14.26%
(d) 15.78%
(e) 19.27%.
8. Which of the following statements is/are true with respect to the “market extraction method” to derive the
capitalization rate of real assets?
I. In this method, net operating income is divided by market value to get the capitalization rate.
II. In this method, the rates on equity as well as debt financing rates are weighted according to their
proportions to calculate the capitalization rate.
III. In this method, the capitalization rate is the sum of the return required on an asset for its being non-liquid,
and the risk free rate.
IV. In this method, a comparable property is selected to choose a rate which reflects market sentiments.
(a) Only (I) above
(b) Only (II) above
(c) Only (III) above
(d) Both (I) and (IV) above
(e) Both (III) and (IV) above.
9. Mr. Suman Sen, an employee of Taurus Ltd., was not able to earn profit from the information he had about the
likely profit figure for the company, even after trying for an extended period of time. This means that the market
is exhibiting
(a) Weak form of market efficiency
(b) Semistrong form of market efficiency
(c) Super strong form of market efficiency
(d) Near strong form of market efficiency
(e) Inefficiency.
10.
Which of the following statements is false with respect to Head and Shoulders price pattern?
(a) Volume is low at the left shoulder and continues to rise, albeit at a lower rate at the head
(b) The left shoulder signifies the penultimate rally in the bull market
(c) Neckline is a line that joins the points from where the final rally begins and ends
(d) The right shoulder confirms the beginning of a bear market
(e) Head and shoulders pattern occurring at market bottoms is called inverted head and shoulder.
11.
Consider the following information:
If the variance of the returns of portfolio is 180 (%)
2
, the coefficient of correlation between the stocks return is

Stock Return (%) Variance (%)
2
Weight in the portfolio
Arvind Ltd. 12 361 0.55
Dabur Ltd. 10 225 0.45
(a) –0.2527
(b) –0.1642
(c) +0.1788
(d) +0.2145
(e) +0.2314.
12.
Which of the following is a natural entry barrier?
(a) Control over raw material
(b) Licensing policy of government
(c) Control over technology
(d) Economies of scale
(e) Control over market through strong brand equity.
13.
Which of the following statements is/are true of growth industries?
I. They are considered to be most likely to benefit from a period of economic prosperity and most likely to
suffer from a period of economic slowdown.
II. They are least hurt in periods of economic slowdown.
III. During economic slowdown their earnings might very well expand while the earnings of other industries
decline.
IV. They are generally characterized by expectation of abnormal returns, often independent of business cycle.
(a) Only (I) above
(b) Only (II) above
(c) Only (III) above
(d) Only (IV) above
(e) Both (III) and (IV) above.
14.The cash earning per share of Mithun Industries Ltd. is Rs.15 and the sales of the company is Rs.540 lakhs. The
depreciation provided by the company is Rs.50 lakhs. If the company has 10 lakhs shares outstanding, the net
profit margin of the company is
(a) 18.52%
(b) 27.12%
(c) 32.41%
(d) 41.77%
(e) 50.07%.
15.The following are the areas where significant diversities are observed with respect to the accounting policies,
except
(a) Valuation of fixed assets
(b) Valuation of inventories
(c) Treatment of gratuity liability
(d) Treatment of capital
(e) Treatment of Research and Development expenditure.
16.Which of the following is/are the applications of ex-ante SML?
I. Test of asset pricing theories.
II. Test of market efficiency.
III. Evaluating the performance of a portfolio manager.
IV. Identifying undervalued securities.
(a) Only (IV) above
(b) Both (II) and (III) above
(c) Both (II) and (IV) above
(d) (I), (II) and (III) above
(e) (II), (III) and (IV) above.
17.Which of the following statements is not true?
(a) Economic Value Added (EVA) is primarily used for evaluating the performance of management
(b) EVA serves as a proxy for measuring a stock’s performance
(c) EVA cannot be applied to calculate NPV
(d) Market Value Added (MVA) serves as a measure of a firm’s external performance
(e) MVA can be computed by discounting the EVA of each year by the WACC.
18.Amazon Inc. recently issued 15-year bonds. The bonds have a coupon rate of 7.5 percent and pays interest semi-
annually. The bonds are callable in 5 years at a call price equal to 13 percent premium to par value. The par
value of the bonds is Rs. 1,000. If the yield to maturity is 6 percent, yield to call is
(a) 3.45%
(b) 4.21%
(c) 5.07%
(d) 6.28%
(e) 7.34%.
19.The beta of stock A is 2.0 and is currently in equilibrium. The required return on the stock is 12% and the
expected return on the market is 10%. Suddenly due to changes in the economic conditions, the expected return
on the market increases to 12%. Other things remaining the same, what would be new required return on the
stock?
(a) 15.0%
(b) 16.0%
(c) 18.5%
(d) 20.0%
(e) 22.0%.
20.Which of the following is a purpose for the construction of stock indices?
(a) The growth in the primary market volumes can be measured through the movement of index
(b) Indices help in finding the quantum of FII investments
(c) Indices help in deciding on the allocation of resources between productive and non-productive lines of
activities
(d) The changes in share prices across the market can be estimated through the movement of indices
(e) An index helps in finding the gain/loss from investment in a particular share.
21.The required rate of return of a company is 18%. It has paid a dividend of Rs.3.50 for the last year. If the stock is
currently trading at its intrinsic value of Rs.65.50, the growth rate in dividend is
(a) 11.32%
(b) 12.01%
(c) 13.61%
(d) 14.55%
(e) 15.79%.
22.Which of the following statements is not true with respect to the mutual funds?
(a) Net Asset Value (NAV) represents the fair value of a unit of a mutual fund scheme
(b) The units of closed-ended funds are generally not redeemable at their NAV
(c) The NAV and the price at which the units of mutual funds are traded in secondary market are not the
same
(d) Open-ended mutual fund companies buy and sell units at their NAV
(e) Closed-ended funds channelize funds in secondary market in acquisition of corporate securities.
23.An option writer writes a 6-month naked call option on a stock at a premium of Rs.13 and the strike price of
Rs.225. The prevailing market price of the stock is Rs.210. If on the expiration day the price of the stock is
Rs.220, then the profit/loss to the option writer will be
(a) − Rs.10
(b) Rs. 3
(c) Rs. 7
(d) Rs.10
(e) Rs.13.
24.Following data pertaining to Vaibhav Ltd. are given below:
The 100 day EMA for day 3 is
Day Closing price (Rs.) 100 EMA for previous day (Rs.)
1 75.00 71.00
2 78.00 72.50
3 84.00 73.00
(a) Rs. 52.58
(b) Rs. 67.89
(c) Rs. 73.22
(d) Rs. 81.05
(e) Rs. 96.41.
25.Which of the following is true with respect to realized yield?
(a) The realized yield cannot be used to estimate rates of return attainable from various trading strategies
(b) A low realized yield reflects an investor’s expectation of substantial capital gains in a fairly short
period of time
(c) The realized yield depends only on the holding period chosen
(d) The realized yield will always lie between the YTM and the reinvestment rate
(e) For bonds with shorter term to maturity, realized yield will be closer to reinvestment rate.
26.Given below is the data of two similar residential properties:
If the gross annual income of property ‘C’, which is similar in characteristics to the above two properties is
Rs.1,15,000, the indicated market value of property ‘C’ as per gross income multiplier method is
Property
Sales price
(Rs.)
Gross annual income
(Rs.)
A 25,00,000 1,20,000
B 22,50,000 1,05,000
(a) Rs.23,35,500
(b) Rs.24,00,000
(c) Rs.24,29,950
(d) Rs.25,19,350



END OF SECTION A

(e) Rs.26,00,000.
27.Which of the following statements is/are not true regarding the lead indicator approach?
I. It forecasts GNP in the short run.
II. It puts forward magnitude and duration of change in the economic activity.
III. The indicator should fit logically with the business cycle theory.
IV. It measures how widespread a phenomenon is.
(a) Only (I) above
(b) Both (I) and (III) above
(c) Both (II) and (III) above
(d) (I), (II) and (IV) above
(e) (II), (III) and (IV) above.
28.
The duration for a bond paying semi-annual coupon is 6.72 years for a maturity of 10 years. If the YTM of the
bond is 12.5% with a coupon rate of 11% and the face value is Rs.100, the modified duration of the bond is
(a) 4.78 years
(b) 5.21 years
(c) 6.32 years
(d) 7.14 years
(e) 8.22 years.
29.Which of the following statements is/are true of the constant growth Dividend Discount Model?
I. It assumes that each future dividend is (1 + g) times greater than the prior dividend.
II. It assumes that the discount rate is greater than the growth rate.
III. It assumes that the increase in growth rate is constant over time.
(a) Only (I) above
(b) Only (II) above
(c) Only (III) above
(d) Both (I) and (II) above
(e) Both (I) and (III) above.
30.
Consider the following data of Omega Mutual Fund (Income plan):
Number of outstanding units is 200 million. Exit load applicable to this scheme is 2.5%. If the investor sells his
units, the per unit price he will get is
(Rs. million)
Value of investments 3474.20
Receivables 260.60
Accrued income 173.60
Other current assets 521.00
Liabilities 390.86
Accrued expenses 86.80
(a) Rs.20.2526
(b) Rs.20.1539
(c) Rs.19.7587
(d) Rs.19.3635
(e) Rs.19.2647.
Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F)
Section B : Problems/Caselet (50 Marks)
• This section consists of questions with serial number 1 – 6.
• Answer all questions.
• Marks are indicated against each question.
• Detailed workings/explanation should form part of your answer.
• Do not spend more than 110 - 120 minutes on Section B.
1.
Consider the following data regarding convertible bonds issued recently by Suhana
Seeds Ltd.:
Face Value of the bond = Rs. 1,000
Coupon Rate of the bond = 12.5%
Maturity = 5 years
Market price of the bond = Rs. 1,106
Market price of equity share = Rs. 189
Conversion rate (i.e., no. of shares
that will be obtained on conversion of bond) = 5
Latest dividend per share = Rs. 5
Using Traditional Valuation Method for the above convertible bond, you are
required to calculate:

a. Annual cash flow differential. ( 2marks)
b. Break even period. ( 2marks)
c. Payback period. ( 4 marks)
2.
Consider the following prices of the stock of Bharti Airtel and the corresponding
value of the Market Index:
You are required to calculate:
End of Month
Bharti Airtel
(Rs.)
Closing Value of
Market Index
February 2008 846.15 5223.50
March 2008 828.05 4734.50
April 2008 901.20 5165.90
May 2008 858.45 4870.10
June 2008 747.95 4040.55
July 2008 809.90 4332.95
August 2008 804.50 4360.00
September 2008 750.25 3921.20
October 2008 616.45 2885.60
November 2008 659.45 2848.45

a. The characteristic line for stock of Bharti Airtel. ( 5 marks)
b. The proportions of systematic risk and unsystematic risk in the total risk of
the stock of Bharti Airtel. ( 5 marks)
3.
A bond issued by Spring Textiles Ltd. is selling presently at a face value of Rs.100
and pays coupon at the rate of 13% p.a. in arrears, which will be redeemed at
Rs.113 after five years. The ‘n’ years spot rate of interest y
n
,

is given by y
n
(%) =
where, n = 1, 2 3, 4 and 5. The term structure of interest rates is flat and
pure expectation theory holds good.
You are required to calculate:
8.5
6
+
n
a. The value of the bond at time 0. ( 5marks)
b. The duration of the above bond. ( 4 marks)
c. Change in bond price for 50 basis point increase in interest
rates. ( 2 marks)
4.
Aqua Ltd., is a company operating in a mature industry. Presently, its EPS is
Rs.6.75. Aqua’s dividend payout ratio is 60% and ROE is 10% and both of these
are expected to be the same in the near future. The beta of the company is 0.86.
The treasury bill rate is 9.86% and the average return from the market is 15.26%.
You are required to calculate:


a. The intrinsic value of Aqua Ltd. shares using Dividend Discount Model

END OF SECTION B

(DDM). ( 3 marks)

b. The intrinsic value of Aqua Ltd. shares using DDM while considering that the
company acquires another company and as a result dividends grow at 20% for
the next three years and return to the constant historical growth rate from 4th
year. ( 4 marks)
Caselet
Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions:

5. The caselet says that through careful planning an investor can manage the risk.
Discuss the various strategies an investor can adopt to limit his risk exposure with
the potential of returns. ( 7 marks)
6. Most investors are aware that one must take greater risks to achieve higher returns.
However, no one wants to take more risk than necessary to achieve one’s financial
goals. Diversification can help reduce risk. But diversification also has the
limitations attached with it. Explain the limitation of diversification with suitable
explanation. ( 7 marks)

Risk – Just the thought of it can give investors sleepless nights. However, through
careful planning for your financial future, you can help manage risk.
Risk is something you encounter everyday. Even crossing a busy street involves
some risk. With investments, balancing risk and return can be a tricky operation.
All investors want to maximize their return, while minimizing risk. Let’s face it,
putting your hard earned money on the line can be downright frightening.
Some investments are certainly more “risky” than others, but no investment is risk
free. Trying to avoid risk by not investing at all can be the riskiest move of all.
That would be like standing at the curb, never setting foot into the street. You’ll
never be able to get to your destination if you don’t accept some risk. In investing,
just like crossing that street, you carefully consider the situation, accept a
comfortable level of risk, and proceed to where you’re going. Risk can never be
eliminated, but it can be managed.
Most investors find it difficult to diversify effectively across the full spectrum of
cash and individual stocks and bonds. That is why so many investors have chosen
variable products to apply the strategies previously mentioned. Mutual funds,
variable annuities, variable universal life insurance products offer the potential for
maximizing investment performance, investment flexibility, and convenience.
They allow you to allocate investments among several asset categories to tailor the
mix to suit your needs. In addition they offer professional investment management,
and allow you to leave the day-to-day decisions to the “experts.” Of course, like
any investment, these products involve risk and you should read prospectus
carefully to see if they are right for you before investing.
An old proverb states, “The best time to plant a tree was yesterday. The second
best time to plant a tree is today.” This “power of time” concept applies to personal
finance as well. The sooner you implement your investment plan, the greater the
wealth you can potentially accumulate. In addition, the longer your time horizon,
the easier it is to ride out the ups and downs of your investments. The length of
time investors hold onto their portfolios is one of the crucial factors determining
the likelihood of obtaining a positive return. Financial history indicates that
investors are amply rewarded in the long-term for assuming risk. Regrettably
there’s no magic potion for eliminating risk. But by carefully creating a long-term,
diversified investment program you can help manage risk.
END OF
CASELET


END OF SECTION C

END OF QUESTION PAPER

Section C : Applied Theory (20 Marks)
• This section consists of questions with serial number 7 - 8.
• Answer all questions.
• Marks are indicated against each question.
• Do not spend more than 25 - 30 minutes on Section C.

7. Fundamental analysis holds various techniques for forecasting economic scenario.
Explain the important techniques of forecasting economic scenarios. ( 10 marks)
8. Valuation of real estate is a very important phenomenon which includes various
characteristics that are different from that of the valuation of bonds. Explain. ( 10 marks)
Suggested Answers
Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F)
Section A : Basic Concepts
ANSWER REASON
1. B P/BV ratio is affected by the required rate of return. When the required rate of return
increases, P/BV ratio goes down. Hence, option (b) is the answer.
2. E If a vertically rally or a decline is interrupted by a consolidation pattern akin to a
rectangle, such a formation is called flags.
3. A Assuming pure expectations theory hold good, two years interest rate, r
0
,
2
will be
calculated from following expressions.
(1 + r
0,2
)
2
= (1 + r
0,1
) (1+f
1,2
) = (1+0.0821) (1+0.0845) = 1.17

⇒ r
0,2
= = 8.33%.

Hence liquidity premium
= 8.63 – 8.33 = 0.30%.
1.17 1 −
4. D In futures contract, trades have to pay daily settlement margin depending on the
movement in the price of the underlying stock. Hence option (d) is false.
5. B Stock splits, stock dividends, bonus issues, as well as reverse stock split do not change
the level of shareholder’s equity (i.e., paid up capital and reserves). Only cash dividends
of earnings is paid out and reserves of the shareholder’s equity. It leads to reduction in
owner’s equity at any given point of time.
6. C A steep trend line is easily violated by small sideward movements in the price chart, and
is not particularly useful in identifying reversals. Hence option (c) is true. Other
statements are false.
7. E
Contribution required to sinking fund = = = 11.38%

Interest rate of bonds = 7.5%, hence total payment on bonds = 7.5% + 11.38% = 18.88%.
Calculation of capitalization rate
Therefore the capitalization rate is = 19.27%
i
n
(1+i) -1
0.075
7
(1+0.075) -1
Instruments Employed (%) Required rate (%) Weighted rates (%)
Equity 35 20.00 7.00
Bonds 65 18.88 12.27
19.27
8. D Statement II relates to Bond of Investment method. Statement III relates to Built-up
method.
9. C Alternative (a) and (b) are not correct as only historical and publicly held information are
discounted by them respectively.
Alternative (d) is not correct as in the near strong form the analysis made by analysts and
the experts e.g. mutual funds in the field is discounted by the market.
The market is not showing inefficiency and alternative (e) is not true.
In only super strong form of market efficiency the insider information is discounted by
the market.
10. A Volume is very high at the left shoulder and continues to rise, albeit at a lower rate at the
head. Hence option (a) is false.
11. C
=

180 = (0.55)
2
× 361 + (0.45)
2
× 225 + 2 × 0.55 × 0.45 × × 19 × 15

180 = 154.77 + 141.08

2
P
σ
2 2 2 2
W W 2W W
A A D D A D AD A D
σ + σ + ρ σ σ
AD
ρ
AD
ρ
= (180-154.77 )/141.08 = 0.1788

AD
ρ
12. D Labour intensive, capital intensive, learning curve and economies of scale are natural
entry barriers, and control over raw material, licencing policy of government, control
over technology and control over market through strong brand equity are artificial entry
barriers.
Hence (d) is the answer.
13. D The growth industries provide above normal returns independent of business cycle. So,
except the Statement (IV), All the remaining statements are not true. Hence option (d) is
the answer.
14. A
Cash earning per share =

15 =

Therefore, PAT = 100 lakhs.
Net Profit margin = PAT/Sales = 100/540 = 18.52%
Therefore, Option (a) is the correct answer.
.
+ PAT Depreciation
No of shares
PAT+50 lakh
10lakh
15. D The areas where divergent accounting policies are
Valuation of fixed assets
Valuation of inventories
Treatment of gratuity liability
Treatment of Research and Development expenditure
But, all the companies follow the homogeneous policy regarding the Treatment of
capital.
Hence, option (d) is the answer.
16. A The applications of ex-ante SMLs are:
I. Identifying undervalued securities.
II Determining the consensus, ‘price of risk’ implicit in current market prices.
Other statements are the applications of ex-post SML. Hence option (a) is said to be
correct answer.
17. C MVA serves as a measure of a firm’s external performance and it can be computed by
discounting the EVA of each year by the WACC. Some advantages of EVA are that it is
primarily used for evaluating the performance of management. It serves as a proxy for
measuring a stock’s performance and it can be applied to capital budgeting problems like
NPV. Therefore statement (c) is not true and is the answer.
18. D The price of the bond is
= 37.5× PVIFA
3%, 30
+ 1000 × PVIF
3%, 30

= 1147.02
Yield to call
1147.02 = 37.5 × PVIFA
i%, 10
+ 1130 × PVIF
i%, 10

i = 3.14%
Annually = 3.14 × 2 = 6.28%.
19. B 12 = R
f
+ 2 (10 – R
f
)

i.e., R
f
= 20 – 12 = 8%

Revised R = 8 + 2 (12 – 8) = 16%.
20. D Market indices are designed to serve as indicators of broad movements in the securities
market and as a sensitive barometer to the changes in trading pattern in the market.
21. B
P
0
= = 65.50

= = 65.50

3.5 + 3.5g = 11.79 – 65.50g
69g = 8.29
g = 12.01%.
(1 )
0
D g
k g
+

3.5(1 )
0.18
g
g
+

22. D As the intrinsic value of the security represents the fair value of the security, the Net
Asset Value (NAV) represents the fair value of a unit in a mutual fund. Statement (a) is
true.
Open-ended mutual fund companies sell new shares at NAV plus a loading or
management fee and redeem them at their NAV. Statement (d) is not true.
The shares of closed-ended funds are not redeemable at their NAV as the open-ended
funds. On the other hand, these shares are traded in secondary market on stock exchanges
at market prices that may be above or below their NAV. Therefore the NAV and the
price at which the units of mutual funds are traded in secondary market need not be
always equal. Statement (b) & (c) are true.
Close-ended funds channelize funds in secondary market in acquisition of corporate
securities. Statement (e) is true.
Hence (d) is the answer.
23. E An option writer who writes a call option has an obligation to sell whereas the buyer or
the holder has the option to buy. A call option will be exercised by the buyer only when
the price of the stock on the expiration day is more than the strike price of the call option.
In the given case as the price of the stock on the expiration day is less than the strike
price, the option holder will not exercise the option. Hence, the gain to the writer will be
premium which in this case is Rs.13.
Hence (e) is the answer.
24. C The exponent for the 100-day EMA is 2/100 = 0.02
Difference in EMA= (84 – 73) × (0.02) = 0.22
100 day EMA for day 3= 73.00 + 0.22 = Rs. 73.22
25. D The realized yield canbe used to estimate rates of return attainable from various trading
strategies
A high realized yield reflects an investor’s expectation of substantial capital gains in a
fairly short period of time
The realized yield depends on the holding period chosen and the reinvestment rate
The realized yield will always lie between the YTM and the reinvestment rate
For bonds with longer term to maturity, realized yield will be closer to reinvestment rate,
and for the bonds with shorter term to maturity, realized yield will be closer to the YTM.
Hence statement (d) is true and is the answer.
26. C First we calculate the gross annual income multiplier for these two units.
Gross Income Multipler (GIM) =

Property A: GIM = 20.83
Property B: GIM = 21.43
Average GIM = 21.13.
Indicated market value of the third unit is Average GIM x Gross Annual income of the
third property = 21.13 x 1,15,000 = Rs. 24,29,950. Hence (c) is the answer.
Sales price
Gross Annual Income
27. D The lead indicator approach attempts to forecast the general economic conditions by
identifying economic indicators that turn ahead of the change in the general level of
economic activity. It identifies factors that provide advance signals of the turning points
in the economy. It only provides direction of the change but not magnitude and duration

of change. The indicator should also fit logically with the business cycle theory.
Statement (II) is not true and statement (III) is true.
Statement (I) is not true because it pertains to GNP model building approach.
Statement (IV) is not true because it pertains to Diffusion index approach.
Hence (d) is the answer.
28. C
Modified duration = Where P is frequency of coupon payment.

= = 6.32 years

1
D
YTM
P
+
6.72
0.125
1
2
+
29. D As per DDM
Po =

The underlying assumptions are:
i. It assumes that each future dividend is (1+g) times greater than prior dividend
ii. The discount rate, k > growth rate, g
iii. The growth rate, g remains constant.
g k
) g 1 ( D
o

+
30. E NAV = (Value of investments + Receivables + Accrued income + Other current assets –
Liabilities – Accrued Expenses) / Number of units outstanding
= (3474.2 + 260.6 + 173.6 + 521 – 390.86 – 86.8)/200 = Rs.19.7587
Now the selling price of the investor will be 19.7587 * (1–0.025) = Rs.19.2647
Hence (e) is the answer.
Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F)
Section B : Problems/Caselet
1.a. Cash flow differential
= Face value × Coupon rate – Conversion value × Dividend yield
= 1000 × 0.125 – (189 × 5) ×

= 125 – 25 = Rs. 100
b. Break-even period = =

= = 1.61 year

c. Payback period =

Premium over conversion value = Current market price of the bond
– Current share price × Number of shares
= 1106 – 189 × 5 = 161
% Premium = = 17.04%

On substituting the values,
Payback period = = = 1.61 years.

5
189
Dividends Income Interest
premium Conversion

1106 189 5
125 25
− ×

161
100

+

+
premium % 1
yield Dividend
yield Current
premium) % Premium/(1 %
100
945
161
×

+

+
1704 . 0 1
189 / 5
1106
125
) 1704 . 0 1 /( 1704 . 0
) 0226 . 0 1130 . 0 (
14559 . 0

2. a. The returns on Bharti Airtel and market index are as follows:
Month
Return
on the
stock of
Bharti
Airtel
(y)
%

) y y ( −

2
) y y ( −
Return
on
Market
index
(x)%

) x x ( −

2
) x x ( − xy x
2
February
2008

March 2008 -2.13 0.19 0.036 -9.36 -3.49 12.18 19.93 87.61
April 2008 8083 11.15 124.32 9.11 14.98 224.40 80.44 82.99
May 2008 -4.74 -20.42 5.85 -5.72 0.15 0.0225 27.11 32.71
June 2008 -12.87 -10.55 111.30 -17.03 -11.16 124.54 219.17 290.02
July 2008 8.28 10.60 112.36 7.23 13.1 171.61 59.86 52.27
August
2008 -0.66 1.66 2.75 0.62 6.49 42.12 0.41 0.38
September
2008 -6.74 -4.42 19.53 -10.06 -4.19 17.55 67.80 101.20
October
2008 -17.83 -15.51 240.56 -26.41 -20.54 421.89 470.89 697.48


The regression equation between the two can be determined as follows:
= = = 0.786

α = ( – ) = [(-20.89) – 0.786 (-52.9)] = 2.298

Mean return on market = -5.87
Characteristic line: R
i
= 2.298+ 0.786R
m

Where R
i
is the return on Bharti Airtel and R
m
is the return on the market.

b. Variance of returns from Bharti Airtel = = = 87.87(%)
2

Standard deviation of returns on Bharti Airtel = = = 9.37

Variance of market return = = = 129.42(%)
2

Standard deviation of market return = = 11.37

Systematic risk = = 0.786
2
129.42 = 79.95(%)
2

Proportion of systematic risk = = 0.9099% = 90.99%

Unsystematic risk = 1 – 0.9099 = 0.0901=9.01%.
November
2008 6.97 9.29 86.30 -1.28 4.59 21.06 -8.92 1.63

=
-
20.89/9
= -2.32
y

Σ
= 703
2
) y y ( −
=

-52.9/9
= -5.87
x

Σ

= 1035.37
2
) x x ( − Σxy
=936.69
Σx
2
=
1346.29
β
2 2
) x ( x n
y x xy n
Σ − Σ
Σ Σ − Σ
2
9 936.69 ( 52.9)( 20.89)
9 1346.29 ( 52.9)
× − − −
× − −
n
1
y Σ β
x Σ ×
9
1
2
S
σ
1 n
) y y (
2

− Σ
703
8
S
σ
2
S
σ
87.87
2
m
σ
1 n
) x x (
2

− Σ
1035.37
8
m
σ
129.42
2
m
2
σ β
×
79.95
87.87
3.a. The value of the bond at time = 0
y
1
= 8.5 + 1/6 = 0.0867

y
2
= 8.5 + 2/6 = 0.0883

y
3
= 8.5 + 3/6 = 0.09

y
4
= 8.5 + 4/6 = 0.0917

y
5
= 8.5 + 5/6 = 0.0933

13 (PVIF
8.67%, 1
+ PVIF
8.83%,2
+ PVIF
9.0%,3
+ PVIF
9.17%,4
+

PVIF
9.33%,5
)

+ 113 PVIF
9.33%, 5

= 13 (0.920 + 0.844 + 0.72 + 0.704 + 0.640) + 113 0.640

= 122.76
b. 100 = 13 PVIFA
( r 5)
+ 113 PVIF
( r 5)

If r = 15%,
R.H.S = 13(3.3522) + 113 (0.4972) = 99.7622
r
d


= 15%

Duration
×
×
=

=

= 3.34 + 0.67
= 4.01 years
c. D
mod
= = = 3.49 years



= - 3.49 years 50/100 = -1.745%

i.e.. 1.745% fall in bond price.
Therefore new price = 100 (1 - 0.01745) = Rs. 98.26
( , )
(1 ) 1 × × + + − ×
| |
|
\ ¹
d
c c
r n d
d d
r r
PVIFA r n
r r
(15%,5)
0.13 0.13
(1.15) 1 5
0.15 0.15
× × + − ×
| |
|
\ ¹
PVIFA
1 +
d
D
r
f
4.01
1.15
mod
100
100
o
o
P BP
D
P
∆ ∆
× = − ×
×
4.Required rate of return for Aqua Ltd. = R
f
+ β
i
(R
m
– R
f
)

= 9.86 + 0.86 (15.26 – 9.86)
= 9.86 + 4.64 = 14.5%
a. V
o
=

g = RoE (1 – d) = 0.1 (1 – 0.60)
(where d is the dividend payout ratio)
= 0.1 (0.4)
= 0.04 ⇒ 4%
D
o
= 6.75 × 0.6 = 4.05

V
o
= = = Rs.40.11

b. D
o
= 4.05

P
3
= = = 69.33

Present value of P
3
= 69.33 × PVIF
14.5, 3


= 69.33 × 0.666
= 46.17
Intrinsic value = 46.17 + 13.35 = Rs.59.52.
g K
) g 1 ( D
e
o

+
04 . 0 145 . 0
) 04 . 1 ( 05 . 4
− 105 . 0
212 . 4
Year Div PV@14.5% PV(Div)
1
4.05 × 1.2 = 4.86
0.873 4.24
2
4.86 × 1.2 = 5.83
0.763 4.45
3
5.83 × 1.2 = 7.00
0.666 4.66
13.35
04 . 0 145 . 0
) 04 . 1 ( 00 . 7
− 105 . 0
28 . 7
5.There are a number of strategies that can help limit risk while offering the potential of higher returns.
• Investing in a variety of investments, or simply following the old adage “Don't put all your eggs in one
basket.” With a portfolio spread among several different investments, you benefit when each type is doing

Section C: Applied Theory
well, and also limit exposure when one or more investment is performing poorly.
• Building upon the diversification concept, with asset allocation you create a customized portfolio consisting
of several asset categories (cash, stocks, bonds) rather than individual securities. Changing economic
conditions affect various types of assets differently; consequently, each asset category's return may partially
offset the others'.
Systematically investing a fixed amount at regular time intervals. When this disciplined program is adhered to and
market fluctuations are ignored, it attempts to “smooth out” the ups and downs of the market over the long haul.
Dollar cost averaging, however, cannot guarantee a positive return in a declining market and you must consider
your ability to continue investing on a regular basis under all market conditions.
6.Diversification can help to reduce portfolio risk by eliminating un-systematic risk for which investors are not
rewarded. Investors are rewarded for taking market risk. Because diversification averages the returns of the assets
within the portfolio.
Diversification can help reduce risk by eliminating unsystematic risk from a portfolio. By choosing securities of
different companies in different industries, one can minimize the risks associated with a particular company’s “bad
luck.” By diversifying among asset classes that are negatively or weakly correlated, you further reduce the
volatility of your portfolio.
However, diversification can reduce the return of the portfolio as well. By selecting several assets, the overall
return on portfolio will be the weighted average of the returns of those assets. For example, let us look at a
portfolio made up 50/50 of single stock and a single bond. In one year, the stock has a total return 30%, the bond
6%. The portfolio return will only be 18% (36 divided by 2). Whereas, if the entire portfolio was invested in the
stock, the return would have been 30%.
7. The important forecasting techniques are:
a. Leading Indicator approach
The lead indicator approach attempts to forecast the general economic conditions by
identifying economic indicators that turn ahead of the change in the general level of economic
activity. Economic indicators are nothing but time series which tend to turn up or down in
advance of or concurrent with, or after the economic upturn or downturn. From figure given
below, we find that indicator A turns ahead of the peak and trough of the business cycle
whereas indicators B and C turn in unison with or after the peak and trough of the cycle.

So, to forecast the change in the economic conditions, we will be obviously interested in
leading indicators because they provide advance signals of the turning points in the economic
activity.
While identifying a lead indicator for the purposes of forecasting, the analyst must ensure that
the lead indicator fulfills the following criteria as closely as possible: (1) It should move
smoothly from one period to another as it rises or falls and should turn sharply at its peaks and
troughs. If a series zigzags during its upward or downward swings, it becomes difficult to
know whether the ‘zig’ is a genuine turning point or a temporary reversal of trend. (2) An ideal
lead indicator should always lead turning points of general business activity by the same
number of months with no `false’ leads. (False leads are predictions of business turning points
which do not materialize). (3) It should lead by enough time to permit the user to make
necessary alterations in his plans, but do not lead by a long- time interval that will make him
disbelieve the indicator. (4) The indicator should fit logically with the business cycle theory.
The more logical it appears that a particular series will turn ahead of economic conditions, the
more assured the user can be that its historical lead relationship will continue in the future.
Some of the leading economic indicators are the utilization of manufacturing capacity,
residential construction, corporate profits, and of course the general level of stock prices. Since
the movement in the general level of stock prices is what we are ultimately interested in
forecasting, we should look for that leading indicator which would act as a lead to the leading
indicator under consideration.
The lead indicator approach is most valuable in suggesting the direction of change in economic
activity. But it does not convey any information on the magnitude and duration of the change.
The other important limitation of this approach is that the signals provided by the different lead
indicators can be mixed. In other words, some of the leading series might signal a turn while
the others might not, resulting in a serious problem of interpreting the same for the purpose of
arriving at a forecast.
This limitation can of course be resolved by shortlisting only such lead indicator(s) that satisfy
the criteria mentioned above. The diffusion index approach discussed in the next section partly
attempts to resolve the problem of mixed signals.
b. Diffusion Indices
A diffusion index (as the name implies) is a measure of how widespread (diffused) a
phenomenon is. We can set up a diffusion index for leading indicators by counting the number
of indicators that rise during a particular period and expressing it as a proportion of the total
number of lead indicators and more desirably in a percentage form. If five out of, say, ten
leading indicators rise during a particular month, the diffusion index for that month will be 50
percent. If, in the next month, seven rise (not necessarily including all the five which rose in
the previous month), the index for that month will be 70 percent. The user must interpret the
diffusion index relative to the levels of the index in the past. Certainly a rise from 50% to 70%
in the index is a stronger confirmation of a period of economic advance.
c. Econometric Model Building Approach
As far as short-term economic forecasting is concerned, an approach based on econometric
methods has the advantage of providing a magnitude and direction to the dependent variable
(unlike the lead indicator approach), say GNP. However, the user must understand that a
precise estimate of the dependent variable (forecast value for GNP) obtained from the
econometric model need not be an accurate one, because accuracy of the forecast will
ultimately depend upon the quality of data input, the validity of the assumptions underlying the
model, and above all upon the model builder’s understanding of the underlying economic
theory.
Further, as stated in the Indian context it must be noted that, an econometric model for
forecasting GNP in a planned economy may not have much of a practical relevance because
the planning priorities may change significantly, besides the likely changes in government
regulation, fiscal policy, and the control mechanisms of money, credit, prices and wages.
Econometric models can be meaningful for future projections if and only if the estimated co-
efficients (like the intercept ‘a’ and slope ‘b’ in a linear regression model) are found to be
acceptable in respect of their stability over time.
d. GNP Model Building Approach
The GNP model building approach forecasts GNP in the short-run by estimating the
magnitudes of the various components constituting GNP. If GNP is defined as C + I + G + X –
M where C, I, G, X and M stand for their standard definitions, then forecast for GNP under this
approach is determined by estimating the likely values of C, I, G, X and M. To estimate these
components, the forecaster relies extensively on the budget estimates of the Central and State
Governments, the socio-economic surveys carried out by the Government and private agencies,
and the field data collected for this purpose.
Once the forecaster estimates these major components, he adds them together to come up with
his estimate of the GNP. He tests the forecast for internal consistency because of the
interrelatedness of the GNP accounts. For example, a given level of consumption implies a
certain level of savings, which affects business investments which in turn affects production
activities, and thus affects income and savings.
While these circular effects take place, other factors like interest rates and inflation will also be
affected. So, the forecaster must ensure that his estimates for the different components take
care of such inter linkage. Apart from testing the forecast for internal consistency, the
forecaster also examines it for external consistency by comparing it with forecasts obtained


under other methods like the econometric model building approach.
The major advantage of this approach is its versatility. Since the GNP forecast is adjusted for all
anticipated changes and tested for internal consistency, it is likely to be a reliable one. But the
approach is data demanding and calls for a vast deal of judgment and ingenuity. The approach has
been succinctly described by Lewis and Turner as `an effort to build a view of the short-run business
outlook that is comprehensive, that is as quantitatively precise as the state of our knowledge permits,
that is internally consistent, that draws upon rather than sidesteps all the pertinent insights of
modern aggregative economics but, at the same time, does not make a fetish of the theoretical rigor.
Instead, the technique seeks to exploit any and all evidences of business prospects that may come to
hand. It is particularly distinguished from pure econometric model building by its heavy use of data
concerning the advance plans and commitments of certain spending groups, and it retains a sizeable
place for judgment and free-hand adjustments’.
8. Characteristics of Real Estate/Property Markets
Valuation of real estate portfolio is different from that of bonds or stocks because of the following
characteristics:
a. Each packet is Unique: No two real estate investments can be the same, at least if they are
located in different places. This difference may not be very significant but the price of one of
them may not give any clue about the price of another. Thus the principle of pricing of similar
products cannot be applied to real estate pricing.
b. Relatively Fewer Players in the Markets: While there are a large number of players in the
stock market or bond market, there are a very few players in the property market. This is
because the amount required for investment in property markets is comparatively higher than
that required in the other asset markets.
c. The Price of a Property is Influential: In a perfectly competitive market, buyers cannot
determine the price. Buyers have no choice. But the situation is different in the case of real
estate markets because a buyer who can bid for a much higher price than the second bidder will
definitely influence the price of the property. Real estate does not have a market mechanism
which allows short selling.
d. Real Estate Investment are Large Economic Units: Property investments cannot be divided
into smaller units like equity shares. This may be overcome to a certain extent by way of
securitization of real estate investments. But still a property investment must be made as a
single unit.
e. Extensive Government Controls: Property markets are subject to several regulations such as
tax laws, building codes, environmental norms to be adhered to, etc. These act as detrimental
factors to the development of real estate. Frequent changes in government regulations may
cause change in ownership position of a real estate which poses an additional risk.
f. Slow Reaction of Supply to Demand: Supply and demand in real estate do not balance. This
is because it takes time for conversion of a property from one use to another use. This adds to
the complication of the valuation of an investment.
g. Unorganized Market: There is no regulated market available for real estate. So the price of
the real estate becomes difficult to be estimated. Though the shares in Real Estate Investment
Trusts (REITS) are traded, they do assume the properties of a share rather than those of a real
estate.
h. Insufficient Data about Market Prices: Absence of an organized market and indivisible
nature of real estate investment are the reasons for the availability of reliable information about
the prices of real estate. Even the buyers and sellers are not willing to disburse the price
information. Unless lease agreement is signed, it is not possible to estimate the price of a
vacant space in any building. Thus, price information about the property is difficult to obtain.
i. Illiquid Nature: Very few transactions occur in real estate over a period of time. So a definite
trend of the prices over time is difficult to determine. The risk and return characteristics are
also difficult to estimate.

8. net operating income is divided by market value to get the capitalization rate. II. Return (%) 12 10 Variance (%)2 361 225 Weight in the portfolio 0.. Dabur Ltd.2145 +0. They are considered to be most likely to benefit from a period of economic prosperity and most likely to suffer from a period of economic slowdown. In this method. a comparable property is selected to choose a rate which reflects market sentiments. .1642 +0.Consider the following information: Stock Arvind Ltd. 13.1788 +0. Suman Sen. the capitalization rate is (a) 12. was not able to earn profit from the information he had about the likely profit figure for the company. If a sinking fund is established to redeem the bonds. the coefficient of correlation between the stocks return is (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) –0.2527 –0.78% (e) 19. Which of the following statements is/are true with respect to the “market extraction method” to derive the capitalization rate of real assets? I.Which of the following is a natural entry barrier? (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Control over raw material Licensing policy of government Control over technology Economies of scale Control over market through strong brand equity. the capitalization rate is the sum of the return required on an asset for its being non-liquid. an employee of Taurus Ltd.26% (d) 15.2314.Which of the following statements is false with respect to Head and Shoulders price pattern? (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Volume is low at the left shoulder and continues to rise. even after trying for an extended period of time. III. 9. and the risk free rate. albeit at a lower rate at the head The left shoulder signifies the penultimate rally in the bull market Neckline is a line that joins the points from where the final rally begins and ends The right shoulder confirms the beginning of a bear market Head and shoulders pattern occurring at market bottoms is called inverted head and shoulder.55 0. In this method. II. Mr. the rates on equity as well as debt financing rates are weighted according to their proportions to calculate the capitalization rate.51% (b) 13. This means that the market is exhibiting (a) Weak form of market efficiency (b) Semistrong form of market efficiency (c) Super strong form of market efficiency (d) Near strong form of market efficiency (e) Inefficiency. 11.49% (c) 14. In this method. They are least hurt in periods of economic slowdown.27%. IV. In this method.required rate of return for equity holders is 20%.Which of the following statements is/are true of growth industries? I. (a) Only (I) above (b) Only (II) above (c) Only (III) above (d) Both (I) and (IV) above (e) Both (III) and (IV) above.45 If the variance of the returns of portfolio is 180 (%)2. 12. 10.

1.12% (c) 32. The depreciation provided by the company is Rs. Test of asset pricing theories. 17.540 lakhs. (II) and (III) above (e) (II). often independent of business cycle. If the company has 10 lakhs shares outstanding. If the yield to maturity is 6 percent. IV. 14. (a) Only (IV) above (b) Both (II) and (III) above (c) Both (II) and (IV) above (d) (I). (a) Only (I) above (b) Only (II) above (c) Only (III) above (d) Only (IV) above (e) Both (III) and (IV) above.0%.Which of the following is a purpose for the construction of stock indices? (a) The growth in the primary market volumes can be measured through the movement of index . 15.5 percent and pays interest semiannually.77% (e) 50. IV. is Rs. yield to call is (a) 3. 19.50 lakhs.Which of the following statements is not true? (a) Economic Value Added (EVA) is primarily used for evaluating the performance of management (b) EVA serves as a proxy for measuring a stock’s performance (c) EVA cannot be applied to calculate NPV (d) Market Value Added (MVA) serves as a measure of a firm’s external performance (e) MVA can be computed by discounting the EVA of each year by the WACC.III. The bonds have a coupon rate of 7. (III) and (IV) above.41% (d) 41. The required return on the stock is 12% and the expected return on the market is 10%. what would be new required return on the stock? (a) 15. II. They are generally characterized by expectation of abnormal returns.000.21% (c) 5.0 and is currently in equilibrium.Which of the following is/are the applications of ex-ante SML? I.28% (e) 7.52% (b) 27. Identifying undervalued securities. 20. Test of market efficiency.The following are the areas where significant diversities are observed with respect to the accounting policies.15 and the sales of the company is Rs. The bonds are callable in 5 years at a call price equal to 13 percent premium to par value.45% (b) 4.5% (d) 20. During economic slowdown their earnings might very well expand while the earnings of other industries decline. III.The beta of stock A is 2. except (a) Valuation of fixed assets (b) Valuation of inventories (c) Treatment of gratuity liability (d) Treatment of capital (e) Treatment of Research and Development expenditure.0% (e) 22. 16.Amazon Inc. Evaluating the performance of a portfolio manager. The par value of the bonds is Rs.34%. the net profit margin of the company is (a) 18.The cash earning per share of Mithun Industries Ltd.0% (b) 16.0% (c) 18. recently issued 15-year bonds. 18.07%. the expected return on the market increases to 12%. Other things remaining the same.07% (d) 6. Suddenly due to changes in the economic conditions.

210. 23.000 22. which is similar in characteristics to the above two properties is Rs.24.50 for the last year. 52.32% (b) 12.13 and the strike price of Rs. are given below: Day Closing price (Rs.Which of the following statements is not true with respect to the mutual funds? (a) Net Asset Value (NAV) represents the fair value of a unit of a mutual fund scheme (b) The units of closed-ended funds are generally not redeemable at their NAV (c) The NAV and the price at which the units of mutual funds are traded in secondary market are not the same (d) Open-ended mutual fund companies buy and sell units at their NAV (e) Closed-ended funds channelize funds in secondary market in acquisition of corporate securities.41.05 (e) Rs.50. If the stock is currently trading at its intrinsic value of Rs. 24.00. 3 (c) Rs.25.) 1.50 3 84.89 (c) Rs. 21.Which of the following is true with respect to realized yield? (a) The realized yield cannot be used to estimate rates of return attainable from various trading strategies (b) A low realized yield reflects an investor’s expectation of substantial capital gains in a fairly short period of time (c) The realized yield depends only on the holding period chosen (d) The realized yield will always lie between the YTM and the reinvestment rate (e) For bonds with shorter term to maturity.3.000 Gross annual income (Rs.24.35.The required rate of return of a company is 18%.) 25. 81.00 73.000 1.Indices help in finding the quantum of FII investments Indices help in deciding on the allocation of resources between productive and non-productive lines of activities (d) The changes in share prices across the market can be estimated through the movement of indices (e) An index helps in finding the gain/loss from investment in a particular share.22 (d) Rs.23.000 (b) (c) If the gross annual income of property ‘C’.00 71.01% (c) 13. 25. the growth rate in dividend is (a) 11.500 Rs. The prevailing market price of the stock is Rs.29.Given below is the data of two similar residential properties: Property A B Sales price (Rs.000.10 (e) Rs.00.An option writer writes a 6-month naked call option on a stock at a premium of Rs. 73.950 Rs.05. the indicated market value of property ‘C’ as per gross income multiplier method is (a) (b) (c) (d) Rs. If on the expiration day the price of the stock is Rs.20.) 100 EMA for previous day (Rs.00 72. then the profit/loss to the option writer will be (a) − Rs. It has paid a dividend of Rs.1.00 2 78. 7 (d) Rs. 26.50. 22.225.00 The 100 day EMA for day 3 is (a) Rs.55% (e) 15. 96. 67.000 Rs.) 1 75.Following data pertaining to Vaibhav Ltd.19.79%.13.10 (b) Rs.220.61% (d) 14.350 .58 (b) Rs. realized yield will be closer to reinvestment rate.65.15.

29. It assumes that the increase in growth rate is constant over time. END OF SECTION A Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F) Section B : Problems/Caselet (50 Marks) • • • • This section consists of questions with serial number 1 – 6.20. It assumes that the discount rate is greater than the growth rate. IV.5%. If the YTM of the bond is 12. III.21 years (c) 6. II.19.60 521.80 Number of outstanding units is 200 million. Exit load applicable to this scheme is 2. It measures how widespread a phenomenon is.100. III.7587 Rs.Which of the following statements is/are not true regarding the lead indicator approach? I.1539 Rs.5% with a coupon rate of 11% and the face value is Rs. It assumes that each future dividend is (1 + g) times greater than the prior dividend.(e) Rs.The duration for a bond paying semi-annual coupon is 6. If the investor sells his units. 27.22 years.3635 Rs.2526 Rs.000.60 173. (III) and (IV) above.Which of the following statements is/are true of the constant growth Dividend Discount Model? I. Marks are indicated against each question.Consider the following data of Omega Mutual Fund (Income plan): Value of investments Receivables Accrued income Other current assets Liabilities Accrued expenses (Rs. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Only (I) above Both (I) and (III) above Both (II) and (III) above (I).20.19. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Only (I) above Only (II) above Only (III) above Both (I) and (II) above Both (I) and (III) above. It puts forward magnitude and duration of change in the economic activity. the per unit price he will get is (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Rs. Detailed workings/explanation should form part of your answer. 28. million) 3474.00 390. The indicator should fit logically with the business cycle theory. 30.78 years (b) 5. (II) and (IV) above (II).72 years for a maturity of 10 years.00. . II.20 260.32 years (d) 7.2647.26.14 years (e) 8.19. It forecasts GNP in the short run. the modified duration of the bond is (a) 4.86 86. Answer all questions.

• Do not spend more than 110 . You are required to calculate: a.05 901.20 858.100 and pays coupon at the rate of 13% p. Aqua Ltd.60 2848. Aqua’s dividend payout ratio is 60% and ROE is 10% and both of these are expected to be the same in the near future.90 804.120 minutes on Section B. 189 5 = Rs.50 4734.50 750. ( b. 1.50 5165.10 4040.. shares using Dividend Discount Model 5marks) marks) marks) .e.75. in arrears.45 747. ( 4 c.00 3921. The value of the bond at time 0.a. n = 1.45 659.15 828.106 = Rs. which will be redeemed at Rs.5% = 5 years = Rs. Presently. is selling presently at a face value of Rs. of shares that will be obtained on conversion of bond) Latest dividend per share = = Rs. The treasury bill rate is 9. Change in bond price for 50 basis point increase in interest rates.: Face Value of the bond Coupon Rate of the bond Maturity Market price of the bond Market price of equity share Conversion rate (i.113 after five years. Payback period. its EPS is Rs. 1. ( 2 4. You are required to calculate: a.45 2marks) 2marks) marks) marks) marks) The proportions of systematic risk and unsystematic risk in the total risk of the stock of Bharti Airtel. you are required to calculate: a. ( 5 3. ( 5 Bharti Airtel (Rs.86. The duration of the above bond. 2 3. Annual cash flow differential..55 4332.86% and the average return from the market is 15.95 4360. Consider the following data regarding convertible bonds issued recently by Suhana Seeds Ltd. The characteristic line for stock of Bharti Airtel.000 12.5 + n 6 where. The ‘n’ years spot rate of interest yn . A bond issued by Spring Textiles Ltd.45 Closing Value of Market Index 5223.) 846. Consider the following prices of the stock of Bharti Airtel and the corresponding value of the Market Index: End of Month February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 You are required to calculate: a.95 809. 1. ( b.20 2885. is given by yn(%) = 8.6. The term structure of interest rates is flat and pure expectation theory holds good. Break even period. The intrinsic value of Aqua Ltd. 4 and 5. The beta of the company is 0.26%.25 616. is a company operating in a mature industry. 5 = Using Traditional Valuation Method for the above convertible bond. ( 4 2. ( c.90 4870. no. b.

With investments.” Of course. You’ll never be able to get to your destination if you don’t accept some risk. like any investment. the easier it is to ride out the ups and downs of your investments. no one wants to take more risk than necessary to achieve one’s financial goals. variable annuities. Risk is something you encounter everyday. Mutual funds. “The best time to plant a tree was yesterday. and proceed to where you’re going. The second best time to plant a tree is today. but it can be managed. accept a comfortable level of risk. Some investments are certainly more “risky” than others. just like crossing that street. ( 4 marks) Caselet Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions: 5. the longer your time horizon. The caselet says that through careful planning an investor can manage the risk. Risk can never be eliminated. Even crossing a busy street involves some risk. Let’s face it.” This “power of time” concept applies to personal finance as well. However. through careful planning for your financial future. Financial history indicates that investors are amply rewarded in the long-term for assuming risk. you carefully consider the situation. But by carefully creating a long-term. never setting foot into the street. shares using DDM while considering that the company acquires another company and as a result dividends grow at 20% for the next three years and return to the constant historical growth rate from 4th year. you can help manage risk. ( 3 marks) The intrinsic value of Aqua Ltd. Most investors find it difficult to diversify effectively across the full spectrum of cash and individual stocks and bonds. the greater the wealth you can potentially accumulate. putting your hard earned money on the line can be downright frightening. They allow you to allocate investments among several asset categories to tailor the mix to suit your needs. In investing. That is why so many investors have chosen variable products to apply the strategies previously mentioned. Regrettably there’s no magic potion for eliminating risk. and allow you to leave the day-to-day decisions to the “experts. The length of time investors hold onto their portfolios is one of the crucial factors determining the likelihood of obtaining a positive return. END OF CASELET END OF SECTION B marks) marks) . In addition. ( 7 6. balancing risk and return can be a tricky operation.(DDM). All investors want to maximize their return. these products involve risk and you should read prospectus carefully to see if they are right for you before investing. Discuss the various strategies an investor can adopt to limit his risk exposure with the potential of returns. However. The sooner you implement your investment plan. Explain the limitation of diversification with suitable explanation. But diversification also has the limitations attached with it. That would be like standing at the curb. and convenience. An old proverb states. diversified investment program you can help manage risk. variable universal life insurance products offer the potential for maximizing investment performance. Trying to avoid risk by not investing at all can be the riskiest move of all. Most investors are aware that one must take greater risks to achieve higher returns. but no investment is risk free. investment flexibility. b. ( 7 Risk – Just the thought of it can give investors sleepless nights. In addition they offer professional investment management. while minimizing risk. Diversification can help reduce risk.

This section consists of questions with serial number 7 . ( 10 marks) Valuation of real estate is a very important phenomenon which includes various characteristics that are different from that of the valuation of bonds.30 minutes on Section C. Explain the important techniques of forecasting economic scenarios. Fundamental analysis holds various techniques for forecasting economic scenario.Section C : Applied Theory (20 Marks) • • • • 7. Answer all questions. ( 10 marks) END OF SECTION C END OF QUESTION PAPER . Explain. Marks are indicated against each question. Do not spend more than 25 .8. 8.

mutual funds in the field is discounted by the market. Alternative (a) and (b) are not correct as only historical and publicly held information are discounted by them respectively.00 7. In only super strong form of market efficiency the insider information is discounted by the market. r0. (1 + r0.08 ρAD . D C 10. Alternative (d) is not correct as in the near strong form the analysis made by analysts and the experts e.45)2 × 225 + 2 × 0.e.5% + 11.075) -1 = 11.27 19.77 + 141.5%. Statement III relates to Built-up method. 9.33%.27 Therefore the capitalization rate is = 19.27% Statement II relates to Bond of Investment method.2 will be 3. trades have to pay daily settlement margin depending on the movement in the price of the underlying stock. 7.88%. σ2 P 180 180 = = = W 2 σ2 + W 2 σ2 + 2W W ρ σ σ A A D D A D AD A D (0. and is not particularly useful in identifying reversals. D B 6. It leads to reduction in owner’s equity at any given point of time..55)2 × 361 + (0. Calculation of capitalization rate Instruments Employed (%) Required rate (%) Weighted rates (%) Equity 35 20. 4. C Hence liquidity premium = 8.2) = (1+0. paid up capital and reserves). E If a vertically rally or a decline is interrupted by a consolidation pattern akin to a 2.2)2 = (1 + r0.0845) = 1. E Contribution required to sinking fund = i (1+i)n -1 0. 11. 1. stock dividends. In futures contract. rectangle. Volume is very high at the left shoulder and continues to rise.Suggested Answers Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F) Section A : Basic Concepts ANSWER REASON B P/BV ratio is affected by the required rate of return.2 = 1.00 Bonds 65 18. A Assuming pure expectations theory hold good. two years interest rate. A steep trend line is easily violated by small sideward movements in the price chart.075 7 = (1+0. such a formation is called flags. as well as reverse stock split do not change the level of shareholder’s equity (i. Only cash dividends of earnings is paid out and reserves of the shareholder’s equity. Stock splits. hence total payment on bonds = 7. calculated from following expressions. option (b) is the answer. P/BV ratio goes down. Other statements are false.63 – 8. albeit at a lower rate at the head.33 = 0.1) (1+f1.45 × ρAD × 19 × 15 154. 5.17 ⇒ r0.g. The market is not showing inefficiency and alternative (e) is not true. Hence option (a) is false.30%. Hence option (d) is false.38% = 18.38% 8. When the required rate of return increases. bonus issues.88 12.0821) (1+0. Hence. Hence option (c) is true. A C Interest rate of bonds = 7.55 × 0.17 − 1 = 8.

option (d) is the answer. All the remaining statements are not true. Net Profit margin = PAT/Sales = 100/540 = 18. capital intensive. except the Statement (IV). 30 = 1147.77 )/141. Hence option (a) is said to be correct answer. The price of the bond is = 37. AD = (180-154. learning curve and economies of scale are natural entry barriers. D 19. 10 i = 3. Option (a) is the correct answer. 10 + 1130 × PVIFi%.ρ 12.1788 D 13. The applications of ex-ante SMLs are: I. Hence.5× PVIFA3%. D B . So.02 = 37. 12 = Rf + 2 (10 – Rf) i. It serves as a proxy for measuring a stock’s performance and it can be applied to capital budgeting problems like NPV. The growth industries provide above normal returns independent of business cycle. licencing policy of government. A 17. II Determining the consensus.02 Yield to call 1147. and control over raw material. Therefore statement (c) is not true and is the answer. of shares Cash earning per share = PAT + 50 lakh 10 lakh 15 = Therefore. ‘price of risk’ implicit in current market prices. Hence (d) is the answer.14% Annually = 3. PAT = 100 lakhs. A 15.14 × 2 = 6. Some advantages of EVA are that it is primarily used for evaluating the performance of management. D Labour intensive. all the companies follow the homogeneous policy regarding the Treatment of capital. 30 + 1000 × PVIF3%.08 = 0. B 20. MVA serves as a measure of a firm’s external performance and it can be computed by discounting the EVA of each year by the WACC. control over technology and control over market through strong brand equity are artificial entry barriers. The areas where divergent accounting policies are Valuation of fixed assets Valuation of inventories Treatment of gratuity liability Treatment of Research and Development expenditure But. Other statements are the applications of ex-post SML.e. PAT + Depreciation No. Market indices are designed to serve as indicators of broad movements in the securities market and as a sensitive barometer to the changes in trading pattern in the market. Identifying undervalued securities.28%.5 × PVIFAi%. Hence option (d) is the answer..52% Therefore. 21. C 18. Rf = 20 – 12 = 8% Revised R = 8 + 2 (12 – 8) = 16%. D 16. 14.

50 3. the Net Asset Value (NAV) represents the fair value of a unit in a mutual fund. On the other hand. Therefore the NAV and the price at which the units of mutual funds are traded in secondary market need not be always equal. C 25. In the given case as the price of the stock on the expiration day is less than the strike price.83 Property B: GIM = 21.22 = Rs.5 + 3. the gain to the writer will be premium which in this case is Rs. It identifies factors that provide advance signals of the turning points in the economy.29 g = 12. 24.02) = 0.79 – 65.43 Average GIM = 21. Statement (e) is true.5g = 11. Sales price Gross Income Multipler (GIM) = Gross Annual Income Property A: GIM = 20. Open-ended mutual fund companies sell new shares at NAV plus a loading or management fee and redeem them at their NAV.02 Difference in EMA= (84 – 73) × (0. Hence (c) is the answer.15. the option holder will not exercise the option. A call option will be exercised by the buyer only when the price of the stock on the expiration day is more than the strike price of the call option. Close-ended funds channelize funds in secondary market in acquisition of corporate securities. The exponent for the 100-day EMA is 2/100 = 0. An option writer who writes a call option has an obligation to sell whereas the buyer or the holder has the option to buy. Hence statement (d) is true and is the answer.01%. D 26. The shares of closed-ended funds are not redeemable at their NAV as the open-ended funds.50 22. Hence (d) is the answer. As the intrinsic value of the security represents the fair value of the security. realized yield will be closer to reinvestment rate.5(1 + g ) = 0. Hence. Statement (d) is not true. realized yield will be closer to the YTM.22 100 day EMA for day 3= 73. E 24. C 3. Hence (e) is the answer.00 + 0.13. Statement (a) is true. It only provides direction of the change but not magnitude and duration 27. First we calculate the gross annual income multiplier for these two units. these shares are traded in secondary market on stock exchanges at market prices that may be above or below their NAV.29.000 = Rs. Statement (b) & (c) are true.22 The realized yield canbe used to estimate rates of return attainable from various trading strategies A high realized yield reflects an investor’s expectation of substantial capital gains in a fairly short period of time The realized yield depends on the holding period chosen and the reinvestment rate The realized yield will always lie between the YTM and the reinvestment rate For bonds with longer term to maturity. and for the bonds with shorter term to maturity.18 − g = 65.13.50g 69g = 8. Indicated market value of the third unit is Average GIM x Gross Annual income of the third property = 21.13 x 1. The lead indicator approach attempts to forecast the general economic conditions by identifying economic indicators that turn ahead of the change in the general level of economic activity. D 23. 73.P0 D (1 + g ) 0 = k − g = 65. D .950.

g remains constant.7587 * (1–0.2647 Hence (e) is the answer.of change.19. The growth rate. 28. E . 6.32 years 2 29. NAV = (Value of investments + Receivables + Accrued income + Other current assets – Liabilities – Accrued Expenses) / Number of units outstanding = (3474.7587 Now the selling price of the investor will be 19. D As per DDM D o (1 + g) k −g Po = The underlying assumptions are: i.19. The discount rate. k > growth rate. Hence (d) is the answer.025) = Rs.125 1+ = = 6.86 – 86. C Modified duration D YTM 1+ = P Where P is frequency of coupon payment.2 + 260. g iii. 30.6 + 173.72 0. It assumes that each future dividend is (1+g) times greater than prior dividend ii. Statement (IV) is not true because it pertains to Diffusion index approach. Statement (I) is not true because it pertains to GNP model building approach. The indicator should also fit logically with the business cycle theory.6 + 521 – 390. Statement (II) is not true and statement (III) is true.8)/200 = Rs.

13 8083 -4.75 19.89 19.55 10.62 -10. 0.1704  = 0.15 -11.54 171.93 87. 100 = Conversion premium 1106 − 189 × 5 Interest Income − Dividends = 125 − 25 161 b.74 -12.83 0.27 0.03 7.99 27.48 .56 -9.1704 /(1 + 0.04% On substituting the values.40 0.44 82.11 -5.28 -0. Cash flow differential = = = Face value × Coupon rate – Conversion value × Dividend yield 5 1000 × 0.Introduction to Security Analysis (MB3G1F) Section B : Problems/Caselet 1.66 -4.60 1.a.61 80.30 112.41 -3.20 470.19 -20.61 year % Premium/(1 + % premium)  Dividend yield  Current yield −  1 + % premium   c.85 111.16 13.74 -17.0226) = 1.19 11.0225 124.87 8.14559 (0.42 -15.12 17. Payback period = Premium over conversion value = = Current market price of the bond – Current share price × Number of shares 1106 – 189 × 5 = 161 161 % Premium = × 100 945 = 17.71 219.72 -17.49 14.36 9.98 0.17 290. a.51 0.125 – (189 × 5) × 189 125 – 25 = Rs.66 -6.61 years.02 59.42 -10.86 52.06 -26.61 42.23 0. The returns on Bharti Airtel and market index are as follows: Return on the stock of Bharti Airtel (y) % Return on Market index (x)% Month ( y − y) ( y − y) 2 (x − x) (x − x) 2 xy x2 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 -2.49 -4. Break-even period = 100 = 1.55 421.11 32.41 0.53 240.89 697.36 2.18 224.15 -20.32 5.1704) 5 / 189   125 −   = 1106 1 + 0.1 6.036 124. Payback period 2.1130 − 0.54 12.38 67.80 101.

298+ 0.33%.786 1 1 Σy – β Σx ) = [(-20.17%.87 = 9.29 − ( −52.704 + 0.5 + 3/6 = 0.42 79.95(%)2 0.786Rm Where Ri is the return on Bharti Airtel and Rm is the return on the market. R.9099% = 90.640 b.0867 y2 = 8.0917 y5 = 8.01%.5) + 113 × PVIF 9. The value of the bond at time = 0 y1 = 8.9)( −20. = 122.0933 13 (PVIF 8.5 + 4/6 = 0.3522) + 113 (0.844 + 0.786 × (-52.63 Σx2 = 1346.H.29 y x= 2 20.89/9 = -2.298 n( Mean return on market Characteristic line: Ri = = -5.2 + PVIF 9.92 1.33%.37 Σxy =936. Variance of returns from Bharti Airtel 703 Σ( y − y) 2 = 8 = 87.76 100 = 13 PVIFA( r 5) + 113 PVIF( r 5) If r = 15%.87 = 1035. Unsystematic risk = 1 – 0.9099 = 0.83%.37 Σ( x − x ) 2 σm = Variance of market return = = 129.69 − ( −52.7622 rd = 15% Duration .32 ( y − y) = 703 -52.89) = β α = = n Σx − (Σx ) 2 2 9 × 1346.640) + 113 × 0.0901=9. 5 = 13 (0.3 + PVIF 9. 2 σS = b.42 = 11.4 + PVIF 9.5 + 2/6 = 0.0%.S = 13(3.95 Proportion of systematic risk = 87.37 1035.29 86.5 + 5/6 = 0.5 + 1/6 = 0.30 Σ -1.a.97 9.89) – 0.59 21.9) 2 = 0. 1 + PVIF 8.87 2.09 y4= 8.November 2008 = 6.9)] 9 = 2.4972) = 99.87 = 0.0883 y3 = 8.28 4.42(%)2 8 n −1 Standard deviation of market return Systematic risk = β2σ 2 m = σm = 129.920 + 0.99% 3.72 + 0.87(%)2 n −1 2 σS = Standard deviation of returns on Bharti Airtel σ S = 2 87.9/9 = -5.69 The regression equation between the two can be determined as follows: n Σxy − Σx Σy 9 × 936.67%.7862 × 129.37 = 79.06 Σ (x − x) 2 -8.

49 years × 50/100 = -1.6 = 4.5 ) × (1. • Investing in a variety of investments.59.” With a portfolio spread among several different investments.86 + 4.01745) = Rs.28 0.64 = 14. n ) × (1 + rd ) +  1 − d    × n rd  rc 0.0.26 – 9.2 = 4.04) 7..5.763 0. 98.05 × 1.00 PV@14. Dmod = ∆Po ∆BP ×100 = − Dmod × Po 100 = .17 + 13.04 = 0.33 × PVIF14.Required rate of return for Aqua Ltd.00(1. Therefore new price = 100 (1 .60) (where d is the dividend payout ratio) = 0.24 4.666 PV(Div) 4.04) 4.745% fall in bond price.86 × 1.666 46.There are a number of strategies that can help limit risk while offering the potential of higher returns.3.15) +  1 −   0.49 years c.13  0.5% 0.e.67 = 4.4) = Do = 6.86) 9.05 Year 1 2 3 Div 4.2 = 7.04 = 0.52.5% a.15 = 3.40.35 P3 = 7.212 0.86 (15.745% i.86 4.1 (0.33 Present value of P3 = = = 69.873 0. Vo g = = D o (1 + g) Ke − g RoE (1 – d) = 0. you benefit when each type is doing .33 × 0.01 years D 1+ rd 4. 3 69. 1.75 × 0.145 − 0.83 × 1.11 0.35 = Rs.15  ×5 = 3.17 Intrinsic value = 46.34 + 0.86 + 0.1 (1 – 0. = Rf + βi (Rm – Rf) = = 9.04 ⇒ 4% Do = 4.05 Vo b.15 × PVIFA(15%.105 = Rs.05(1.rc = rd × PVIFA( r . = 4.01 f = 1.83 5.13 = 0. 5.2 = 5.45 4.145 − 0.105 = 69.66 13. or simply following the old adage “Don't put all your eggs in one basket.26 4.

the analyst must ensure that the lead indicator fulfills the following criteria as closely as possible: (1) It should move smoothly from one period to another as it rises or falls and should turn sharply at its peaks and troughs. the stock has a total return 30%. cannot guarantee a positive return in a declining market and you must consider your ability to continue investing on a regular basis under all market conditions. we find that indicator A turns ahead of the peak and trough of the business cycle whereas indicators B and C turn in unison with or after the peak and trough of the cycle. • Section C: Applied Theory 7. one can minimize the risks associated with a particular company’s “bad luck.time interval that will make him disbelieve the indicator. if the entire portfolio was invested in the stock. By selecting several assets. the . Investors are rewarded for taking market risk. to forecast the change in the economic conditions. consequently. diversification can reduce the return of the portfolio as well. From figure given below.” By diversifying among asset classes that are negatively or weakly correlated. each asset category's return may partially offset the others'. The important forecasting techniques are: a. the overall return on portfolio will be the weighted average of the returns of those assets. bonds) rather than individual securities.well. you further reduce the volatility of your portfolio. So. and also limit exposure when one or more investment is performing poorly. The portfolio return will only be 18% (36 divided by 2). By choosing securities of different companies in different industries. Systematically investing a fixed amount at regular time intervals. The more logical it appears that a particular series will turn ahead of economic conditions. However. Building upon the diversification concept. (3) It should lead by enough time to permit the user to make necessary alterations in his plans. Economic indicators are nothing but time series which tend to turn up or down in advance of or concurrent with. we will be obviously interested in leading indicators because they provide advance signals of the turning points in the economic activity. For example. Changing economic conditions affect various types of assets differently. Because diversification averages the returns of the assets within the portfolio. (False leads are predictions of business turning points which do not materialize). let us look at a portfolio made up 50/50 of single stock and a single bond. (2) An ideal lead indicator should always lead turning points of general business activity by the same number of months with no `false’ leads. While identifying a lead indicator for the purposes of forecasting. Whereas. Dollar cost averaging. with asset allocation you create a customized portfolio consisting of several asset categories (cash. When this disciplined program is adhered to and market fluctuations are ignored. Leading Indicator approach The lead indicator approach attempts to forecast the general economic conditions by identifying economic indicators that turn ahead of the change in the general level of economic activity. it becomes difficult to know whether the ‘zig’ is a genuine turning point or a temporary reversal of trend.Diversification can help to reduce portfolio risk by eliminating un-systematic risk for which investors are not rewarded. but do not lead by a long. stocks. In one year. If a series zigzags during its upward or downward swings. the bond 6%. it attempts to “smooth out” the ups and downs of the market over the long haul. however. or after the economic upturn or downturn. the return would have been 30%. Diversification can help reduce risk by eliminating unsystematic risk from a portfolio. 6. (4) The indicator should fit logically with the business cycle theory.

he adds them together to come up with his estimate of the GNP. which affects business investments which in turn affects production activities. Certainly a rise from 50% to 70% in the index is a stronger confirmation of a period of economic advance. say GNP. The lead indicator approach is most valuable in suggesting the direction of change in economic activity. and thus affects income and savings. Apart from testing the forecast for internal consistency. If. and the field data collected for this purpose. seven rise (not necessarily including all the five which rose in the previous month). G. The user must interpret the diffusion index relative to the levels of the index in the past. residential construction. an approach based on econometric methods has the advantage of providing a magnitude and direction to the dependent variable (unlike the lead indicator approach). an econometric model for forecasting GNP in a planned economy may not have much of a practical relevance because the planning priorities may change significantly. other factors like interest rates and inflation will also be affected. Since the movement in the general level of stock prices is what we are ultimately interested in forecasting. But it does not convey any information on the magnitude and duration of the change. c. Econometric models can be meaningful for future projections if and only if the estimated coefficients (like the intercept ‘a’ and slope ‘b’ in a linear regression model) are found to be acceptable in respect of their stability over time. in the next month. d. The other important limitation of this approach is that the signals provided by the different lead indicators can be mixed. a given level of consumption implies a certain level of savings. X and M stand for their standard definitions. In other words. The diffusion index approach discussed in the next section partly attempts to resolve the problem of mixed signals. and above all upon the model builder’s understanding of the underlying economic theory. and the control mechanisms of money. fiscal policy. the forecaster also examines it for external consistency by comparing it with forecasts obtained . He tests the forecast for internal consistency because of the interrelatedness of the GNP accounts. credit. besides the likely changes in government regulation. prices and wages. For example. While these circular effects take place. because accuracy of the forecast will ultimately depend upon the quality of data input. ten leading indicators rise during a particular month. we should look for that leading indicator which would act as a lead to the leading indicator under consideration. then forecast for GNP under this approach is determined by estimating the likely values of C. This limitation can of course be resolved by shortlisting only such lead indicator(s) that satisfy the criteria mentioned above. X and M. Once the forecaster estimates these major components. So. the forecaster relies extensively on the budget estimates of the Central and State Governments.b. the user must understand that a precise estimate of the dependent variable (forecast value for GNP) obtained from the econometric model need not be an accurate one. GNP Model Building Approach The GNP model building approach forecasts GNP in the short-run by estimating the magnitudes of the various components constituting GNP. and of course the general level of stock prices. resulting in a serious problem of interpreting the same for the purpose of arriving at a forecast. Econometric Model Building Approach As far as short-term economic forecasting is concerned. Diffusion Indices A diffusion index (as the name implies) is a measure of how widespread (diffused) a phenomenon is. Further. If GNP is defined as C + I + G + X – M where C. some of the leading series might signal a turn while the others might not. the forecaster must ensure that his estimates for the different components take care of such inter linkage. G. the socio-economic surveys carried out by the Government and private agencies. If five out of. say. corporate profits. Some of the leading economic indicators are the utilization of manufacturing capacity. more assured the user can be that its historical lead relationship will continue in the future. I. the validity of the assumptions underlying the model. We can set up a diffusion index for leading indicators by counting the number of indicators that rise during a particular period and expressing it as a proportion of the total number of lead indicators and more desirably in a percentage form. as stated in the Indian context it must be noted that. To estimate these components. However. I. the index for that month will be 70 percent. the diffusion index for that month will be 50 percent.

b. d. it is not possible to estimate the price of a vacant space in any building. they do assume the properties of a share rather than those of a real estate. does not make a fetish of the theoretical rigor. But the situation is different in the case of real estate markets because a buyer who can bid for a much higher price than the second bidder will definitely influence the price of the property. e. etc. Extensive Government Controls: Property markets are subject to several regulations such as tax laws. environmental norms to be adhered to. that draws upon rather than sidesteps all the pertinent insights of modern aggregative economics but. it is likely to be a reliable one. This may be overcome to a certain extent by way of securitization of real estate investments. Real estate does not have a market mechanism which allows short selling. . that is internally consistent. Each packet is Unique: No two real estate investments can be the same. Instead. that is as quantitatively precise as the state of our knowledge permits. Slow Reaction of Supply to Demand: Supply and demand in real estate do not balance. there are a very few players in the property market. g. under other methods like the econometric model building approach. So a definite trend of the prices over time is difficult to determine. Even the buyers and sellers are not willing to disburse the price information. at the same time. the technique seeks to exploit any and all evidences of business prospects that may come to hand. and it retains a sizeable place for judgment and free-hand adjustments’. Relatively Fewer Players in the Markets: While there are a large number of players in the stock market or bond market. Though the shares in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) are traded. So the price of the real estate becomes difficult to be estimated. buyers cannot determine the price. Real Estate Investment are Large Economic Units: Property investments cannot be divided into smaller units like equity shares. But the approach is data demanding and calls for a vast deal of judgment and ingenuity.8. c. building codes. The major advantage of this approach is its versatility. Thus. This adds to the complication of the valuation of an investment. The approach has been succinctly described by Lewis and Turner as `an effort to build a view of the short-run business outlook that is comprehensive. Illiquid Nature: Very few transactions occur in real estate over a period of time. These act as detrimental factors to the development of real estate. Since the GNP forecast is adjusted for all anticipated changes and tested for internal consistency. This is because the amount required for investment in property markets is comparatively higher than that required in the other asset markets. i. Unorganized Market: There is no regulated market available for real estate. h. Frequent changes in government regulations may cause change in ownership position of a real estate which poses an additional risk. But still a property investment must be made as a single unit. Unless lease agreement is signed. Thus the principle of pricing of similar products cannot be applied to real estate pricing. This difference may not be very significant but the price of one of them may not give any clue about the price of another. Insufficient Data about Market Prices: Absence of an organized market and indivisible nature of real estate investment are the reasons for the availability of reliable information about the prices of real estate. It is particularly distinguished from pure econometric model building by its heavy use of data concerning the advance plans and commitments of certain spending groups. at least if they are located in different places. This is because it takes time for conversion of a property from one use to another use. Buyers have no choice. The Price of a Property is Influential: In a perfectly competitive market. price information about the property is difficult to obtain. Characteristics of Real Estate/Property Markets Valuation of real estate portfolio is different from that of bonds or stocks because of the following characteristics: a. f. The risk and return characteristics are also difficult to estimate.

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