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# Sustainable Energy Engineering

Unit one
Conservation of Energy The law of conservation of energy is an empirical law of physics. It states that the total amount of energy in an isolated system remains constant over time (is said to be conserved over time). A consequence of this law is that energy can neither be created nor destroyed: it can only be transformed from one state to another. The only thing that can happen to energy in a closed system is that it can change form: for instance chemical energy can become kinetic energy. Albert Einstein's theory of relativity shows that energy and mass are the same thing, and that neither one appears without the other. Thus in closed systems, both mass and energy are conserved separately, just as was understood in pre-relativistic physics. The new feature of relativistic physics is that "matter" particles (such as those constituting atoms) could be converted to non-matter forms of energy, such as light; or kinetic and potential energy (example: heat). However, this conversion does not affect the total mass of systems, because the latter forms of non-matter energy still retain their mass through any such conversion.[1] Today, conservation of ³energy´ refers to the conservation of the total system energy over time. This energy includes the energy associated with the rest mass of particles and all other forms of energy in the system. In addition, the invariant mass of systems of particles (the mass of the system as seen in its center of mass inertial frame, such as the frame in which it would need to be weighed) is also conserved over time for any single observer, and (unlike the total energy) is the same value for all observers. Therefore, in an isolated system, although matter (particles with rest mass) and "pure energy" (heat and light) can be converted to one another, both the total amount of energy and the total amount of mass of such systems remain constant over time, as seen by any single observer. If energy in any form is allowed to escape such systems (see binding energy), the mass of the system will decrease in correspondence with the loss. A consequence of the law of energy conservation is that perpetual motion machines can only work perpetually if they deliver no energy to their surroundings.

History
Ancient philosophers as far back as Thales of Miletus had inklings of the conservation of which everything is made. However, there is no particular reason to identify this with what we know today as "mass-energy" (for example, Thales thought it was water). In 1638, Galileo published his analysis of several situations²including the celebrated "interrupted pendulum"²which can be described (in modern language) as conservatively converting potential energy to kinetic energy and back again. It was Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz during 1676±1689 who first attempted a mathematical formulation of the kind of energy which is connected with motion (kinetic

energy). Leibniz noticed that in many mechanical systems (of several masses, mi each with velocity vi ),

was conserved so long as the masses did not interact. He called this quantity the vis viva or living force of the system. The principle represents an accurate statement of the approximate conservation of kinetic energy in situations where there is no friction. Many physicists at that time held that the conservation of momentum, which holds even in systems with friction, as defined by the momentum:

was the conserved vis viva. It was later shown that, under the proper conditions, both quantities are conserved simultaneously such as in elastic collisions. It was largely engineers such as John Smeaton, Peter Ewart, Karl Hotzmann, Gustave-Adolphe Hirn and Marc Seguin who objected that conservation of momentum alone was not adequate for practical calculation and who made use of Leibniz's principle. The principle was also championed by some chemists such as William Hyde Wollaston. Academics such as John Playfair were quick to point out that kinetic energy is clearly not conserved. This is obvious to a modern analysis based on the second law of thermodynamics but in the 18th and 19th centuries, the fate of the lost energy was still unknown. Gradually it came to be suspected that the heat inevitably generated by motion under friction, was another form of vis viva. In 1783, Antoine Lavoisier and Pierre-Simon Laplace reviewed the two competing theories of vis viva and caloric theory.[2] Count Rumford's 1798 observations of heat generation during the boring of cannons added more weight to the view that mechanical motion could be converted into heat, and (as importantly) that the conversion was quantitative and could be predicted (allowing for a universal conversion constant between kinetic energy and heat). Vis viva now started to be known as energy, after the term was first used in that sense by Thomas Young in 1807. The recalibration of vis viva to

which can be understood as finding the exact value for the kinetic energy to work conversion constant, was largely the result of the work of Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis and Jean-Victor Poncelet over the period 1819±1839. The former called the quantity quantité de travail (quantity of work) and the latter, travail mécanique (mechanical work), and both championed its use in engineering calculation. In a paper Über die Natur der Wärme, published in the Zeitschrift für Physik in 1837, Karl Friedrich Mohr gave one of the earliest general statements of the doctrine of the conservation of

energy in the words: "besides the 54 known chemical elements there is in the physical world one agent only, and this is called Kraft [energy or work]. It may appear, according to circumstances, as motion, chemical affinity, cohesion, electricity, light and magnetism; and from any one of these forms it can be transformed into any of the others." A key stage in the development of the modern conservation principle was the demonstration of the mechanical equivalent of heat. The caloric theory maintained that heat could neither be created nor destroyed but conservation of energy entails the contrary principle that heat and mechanical work are interchangeable. The mechanical equivalence principle was first stated in its modern form by the German surgeon Julius Robert von Mayer.[3] Mayer reached his conclusion on a voyage to the Dutch East Indies, where he found that his patients' blood was a deeper red because they were consuming less oxygen, and therefore less energy, to maintain their body temperature in the hotter climate. He had discovered that heat and mechanical work were both forms of energy, and later, after improving his knowledge of physics, he calculated a quantitative relationship between them.

Joule's apparatus for measuring the mechanical equivalent of heat. A descending weight attached to a string causes a paddle immersed in water to rotate. Meanwhile, in 1843 James Prescott Joule independently discovered the mechanical equivalent in a series of experiments. In the most famous, now called the "Joule apparatus", a descending weight attached to a string caused a paddle immersed in water to rotate. He showed that the gravitational potential energy lost by the weight in descending was equal to the thermal energy (heat) gained by the water by friction with the paddle. Over the period 1840±1843, similar work was carried out by engineer Ludwig A. Colding though it was little known outside his native Denmark. Both Joule's and Mayer's work suffered from resistance and neglect but it was Joule's that, perhaps unjustly, eventually drew the wider recognition.

William Robert Grove postulated a relationship between mechanics. Thus the term "heat energy" for Q means "that amount of energy added as the result of heating" rather than referring to a particular form of energy. In 1877. This is now regarded as an example of Whig history. Work and heat are processes which add or subtract energy. only converted from one form to another. The 's before the heat and work terms are used to indicate that they describe an increment of energy which is to be interpreted somewhat differently than the dU increment of internal energy (see Inexact differential). but one cannot tell how much energy has flowed into or out of the system as a result of its being heated or cooled.[4] In 1847. The general modern acceptance of the principle stems from this publication.[5] The first law of thermodynamics Entropy is a function of a quantity of heat which shows the possibility of conversion of that heat into work. W is the amount of energy lost by the system due to work done by the system on its surroundings and dU is the change in the internal energy of the system. The most significant result of this distinction is the fact that one can clearly state the amount of internal energy possessed by a thermodynamic system. this means that energy cannot be created or destroyed. 1847). Peter Guthrie Tait claimed that the principle originated with Sir Isaac Newton. For a thermodynamic system with a fixed number of particles. drawing on the earlier work of Joule. see Mechanical equivalent of heat: Priority In 1844. In simple terms. For a simple compressible system. while the internal energy U is a particular form of energy associated with the system. heat. or equivalently. the first law of thermodynamics may be stated as: . electricity and magnetism by treating them all as manifestations of a single "force" (energy in modern terms). nor as the result of work being performed on or by the system. the work performed by the system may be written . based on a creative reading of propositions 40 and 41 of the Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica. the term "work energy" for W means "that amount of energy lost as the result of work". light. where Q is the amount of energy added to the system by a heating process. Likewise. Sadi Carnot and Émile Clapeyron. Grove published his theories in his book The Correlation of Physical Forces.For the dispute between Joule and Mayer over priority. Hermann von Helmholtz arrived at conclusions similar to Grove's and published his theories in his book Über die Erhaltung der Kraft (On the Conservation of Force.

each of which are system variables. For this particular form to be valid. energy conservation is implied by the empirical fact that the laws of physics do not change with time itself. Conversely. Noether's theorem The conservation of energy is a common feature in many physical theories. The heat energy may be written where T is the temperature and dS is a small change in the entropy of the system. The energy conservation law is a consequence of the shift symmetry of time. theories which are not invariant under shifts in time (for example. if the theory's symmetry is time invariance then the conserved quantity is called "energy". conservation of energy is usually stated as where T is kinetic and V potential energy. From a mathematical point of view it is understood as a consequence of Noether's theorem. external system so that the theory of the enlarged system becomes time invariant again. which states every continuous symmetry of a physical theory has an associated conserved quantity.where P is the pressure and dV is a small change in the volume of the system. Thus conservation of energy for finite systems is . In other words. The potential energy doesn't depend on velocities. if the theory is invariant under the continuous symmetry of time translation then its energy (which is canonical conjugate quantity to time) is conserved. Actually this is the particular case of the more general conservation law and where L is the Lagrangian function. Temperature and entropy are also system variables. conservation can always be recovered by a suitable re-definition of what energy is. Philosophically this can be stated as "nothing depends on time per se". Mechanics In mechanics. Since any time-varying theory can be embedded within a time-invariant meta-theory energy. systems with time dependent potential energy) do not exhibit conservation of energy ± unless we consider them to exchange energy with another. the following must be true: y y y The system is scleronomous (neither kinetic nor potential energy are explicit functions of time) The kinetic energy is a quadratic form with regard to velocities.

In the limit of zero kinetic energy (or equivalently in the rest frame) of a massive particle. although different observers disagree as to the energy value.valid in such modern physical theories as special relativity and quantum theory (including QED) in the flat space-time. Thus. Also conserved is the vector length (Minkowski norm). and which is defined by the energy±momentum relation. This applies to the total energy of systems. Each of the four components (one of energy and three of momentum) of this vector is separately conserved across time. Relativity With the discovery of special relativity by Albert Einstein. which is the rest mass for single particles. in any closed system. Also conserved. energy was proposed to be one component of an energy-momentum 4-vector. as seen from any given inertial reference frame. the total energy of particle or object (including internal kinetic energy in systems) is related to its rest mass or its invariant mass via the famous equation E = mc2. the rule of conservation of energy over time in special relativity continues to hold. The relativistic energy of a single massive particle contains a term related to its rest mass in addition to its kinetic energy of motion. and invariant to all observers. so long as the reference frame of the observer is unchanged. is the invariant mass. and the invariant mass for systems of particles (where momenta and energy are separately summed before the length is calculated²see the article on invariant mass). . which is the minimal system mass and energy that can be seen by any observer. or else in the center of momentum frame for objects or systems which retain kinetic energy.

Changes in total energy of systems can only be accomplished by adding or subtracting energy from them. and the total amount of mass of a system is a measure of its energy. or motion). light. the term energy describes the capacity to produce changes within a system. as energy is a quantity which is conserved. Energy may be used in natural processes or machines. an internal combustion engine converts the potential chemical energy in gasoline and oxygen into heat. According to special relativity. Energy in many states may be used to do many varieties of physical work. which is then transformed into the propulsive energy (kinetic energy that . or else to provide some service to society (such as heat. without regard to limitations in transformation imposed by entropy. according to the first law of thermodynamics. Energy in a system may be transformed so that it resides in a different state. changes in the energy of systems will also coincide with changes in the system's mass.Energy transformation In physics. For example.

useful work). to compensate for the decrease in entropy associated with the disappearance of the thermal energy and its entropy content. only if the entropy (even-ness or disorder) of the universe is increased by other means. In general. a measure called entropy. The generic name for a device which converts energy from one form to another is a transducer. Otherwise. only a part of thermal energy may be converted to other kinds of energy (and thus. which are freely allowed to explore any state of momentum and position (phase space). in such a way that the increase in entropy for this process more than compensates for the entropy decrease associated with transformation of the rest of the heat into other types of energy. Such efficiencies might occur in practice. A short list of examples follows: y Thermoelectric (Heat Electricity) . (There is no way. to collect energy into fewer states. A consequence of this requirement is that there are limitations to the efficiency with which thermal energy can be converted to other kinds of energy. save for thermal energy. since thermal energy in equilibrium at a given temperature already represents the maximal evening-out of energy between all possible states. with a theoretical efficiency of 100%. since the remainder of the heat must be reserved to be transferred to a thermal reservoir at a lower temperature. may be converted to any other kind of energy. Exceptions for perfect efficiency (even for isolated systems) occur when energy has already been partly distributed among many available quantum states for a collection of particles. such as when chemical potential energy is completely converted into kinetic energies.) A solar cell converts solar radiation into electrical energy that can then be used to light a bulb or power a computer. dictates that future states of the system must be of at least equal evenness in energy distribution. taking the universe as a whole. once it has spread to them). Currently we do not have the knowledge or technology to create an isolated system from a portion of the universe. Such energy is sometimes considered "degraded energy. and vice versa. The second law of thermodynamics is a way of stating that. most types of energy. Conversion of other types of energies to heat also may occur with high efficiency but a perfect level would be only possible for isolated systems also. only in isolated systems.moves a vehicle. In such circumstances." because it is not entirely usable. thermal energy in a system may be converted to other kinds of energy with efficiencies approaching 100%. If there is nothing beyond the frontiers of the universe then the only real isolated system would be the universe itself. or evening-out of energy distribution in such states. Energy conversion There are many different machines and transducers that convert one energy form into another. for this reason.

6°C.) 4. confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales [8].g. Natural factors have made small contributions to radiative forcing over the past century) 3..y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y Geothermal power (Heat Electricity) Heat engines. Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate (Anthropogenic aerosols are shortlived and mostly produce negative radiative forcing. Nevertheless. An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system (The global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0. Snow cover and ice extent have decreased) 2. Temperatures have risen during the past four decades in the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities . they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e. Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased (Complex physically based climate models are required to provide detailed estimates of feedbacks and of regional features. or the steam engine (Heat Mechanical energy) Ocean thermal power (Heat Electricity) Hydroelectric dams (Gravitational potential energy Electricity) Electric generator (Kinetic energy or Mechanical work Electricity) Fuel cells (Chemical energy Electricity) Battery (electricity) (Chemical energy Electricity) Fire (Chemical energy Heat and Light) Electric lamp (Electricity Heat and Light) Microphone (Sound Electricity) Wave power (Mechanical energy Electricity) Windmills (Wind energy Electricity or Mechanical energy) Piezoelectrics (Strain Electricity) Acoustoelectrics (Sound Electricity) Friction (Kinetic energy Heat) IPPC-Third Assessment Report Conclusions The key conclusions in the Summary for Policymakers [7] in Working Group I: The Scientific Basis were: 1. such as the internal combustion engine used in cars.

y History . Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity. Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century 6.[2][3] though a few organisations hold non-committal positions.5. Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios. The global warming controversy is a variety of disputes regarding the nature. Basis of predictions IPCC predictions are based on the same models used to establish the importance of the different factors in global warming. Sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gases may be overestimated or underestimated because of some flaws in the models and because the importance of some external factors may be misestimated. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view. The wide range in predictions is based upon several different scenarios that assume different levels of future CO2 emissions. Each scenario then has a range of possible outcomes associated with it. The IPCC concedes that there is a need for better models and better scientific understanding of some climate phenomena. and what the consequences of global warming will be.5 °C. and consequences of global warming. The predictions are based on scenarios. Scenarios go from pessimistic to optimistic. and the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.5 to 4. The TAR estimate for the climate sensitivity is 1. Critics assert that the available data is not sufficient to determine the real importance of greenhouse gases in climate change. The more realistic scenarios fall in between. and the IPCC did not assign any probability to the 35 scenarios used.9 metres over the same period. These models need data about anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. These data are predicted from economic models based on 35 different scenarios. predictions of additional warming.1 to 0. whether humankind has contributed significantly to it. and the sea level is projected to rise by 0. IPCC uses the best available predictions and their reports are under strong scientific scrutiny. and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements. and predictions of global warming depend on the kind of scenario considered. whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations.4 to 5. as well as the uncertainties involved. especially since the mid-20th century. The most optimistic outcome assumes an aggressive campaign to reduce CO2 emissions. causes.[1] where there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. The controversy is significantly more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature. while the most pessimistic is a "business as usual" scenario. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100.

"[5] All European Union member states ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. while 10% "do not consider it a serious problem.[13] A compendium of poll results on public perceptions about global warming is below. and many European countries had already been taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions prior to 1990. on the average.." 87% of Europeans consider climate change to be a "very serious" or "serious" problem. between "poverty.[4] Similarly. You don't have to be a climate-change denier to recognise that there's a great range of opinion on the subject. Margaret Thatcher advocated action against man-made climate change in 1988.[6] and Germany started to take action after the Green Party took seats in Parliament across the 1980s. on the other hand. For example.[7] Both "global warming" and the more politically neutral "climate change" were listed by the Global Language Monitor as political buzzwords or catch phrases in 2005. Andrew Neil of the BBC stated that "There's a great danger that on some issues we're becoming a one-party state in which we're meant to have only one kind of view.[16] (USA) The Earth is getting warmer because of human activity[18] 59 49 ."[12] Martin Gardner.Public opinion The level of coverage that US mass media devoted to global warming "was minimal prior to 1988" but interest increased significantly after the drought of 1988. incipient coverage of climate change in the British press "changed at the end of 1988 . most notably the United States.[16] 79 (USA) It's necessary to take major steps starting very soon. when pseudoscience and science are at odds.[8] In Europe.. but also by environmental organizations and political forces in opposition who demanded solutions that contrasted with the government's. Substantial activity by NGOs took place as well. the lack of food and drinking water" and "a major global economic downturn. Europeans rate climate change as the second most serious problem facing the world today. sees the media in the United States bending over backwards to give equal time to both sides. Hansen "attributing the abnormally hot weather plaguing our nation to global warming". stimulated by Margaret Thatcher's appropriation of the risks of climate change to promote nuclear energy and dismantle the coal industry .[9][10] A 2009 Eurobarometer survey titled "Europeans' Attitude Toward Climate Change" notes that.[17] % agree 49 90 Year 2006 2006 2007 2007 2009 (International) Human activity is a significant cause of climate change.." [11] There has been a debate among public commentators about how much weight and media coverage should be given to each side of the controversy. and related Senate testimony of James E. the notion of human influence on climate gained wide acceptance more rapidly than in many other parts of the world.. Statement (USA) Global Warming is very/extremely important[15] (International) Climate change is a serious problem.

are."[40] A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analysed 1. one of the coauthors of the study. said of "the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant" that "I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound". Richard Lindzen has publicly dissented from IPCC positions. people[44] or the Synthesis and Executive summaries..[citation needed] Christopher Landsea.[38][39] The institute refused requests by scientists to have their names removed."[42] On the authority of the IPCC Main article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The "standard" view of climate change has come to be defined by the reports of the IPCC. unfortunately²and this is hard to say without sounding elitist²mostly either not actually climate researchers or not very productive researchers. and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. For example..[47] Roger Pielke. a hurricane researcher.[41][42] Judith Curry has said "This is a completely unconvincing analysis..[45] because of comments made at a press conference by Kevin Trenberth of which Landsea disapproved. the scientific reports attract less attention. acknowledged "it would be helpful to have lukewarm [as] a third category.[48] The main claims of the House of Lords Economics Committee . stating that the scientists "have no right²legally or ethically²to demand that their names be removed." [42][43] Jim Prall.. as long as they are not saying anything on behalf of the IPCC" and offered to include Landsea in the review phase of the AR4. commented that "Both Landsea and Trenberth can and should feel vindicated. which is supported by many other science academies and scientific organizations. Trenberth said that "Landsea's comments were not correct". Jr. sixteen of the world's national science academies made a joint-statement on climate change. with some of its emissions scenarios and summary documentation apparently influenced by political considerations.demanded to be removed from the list. In 2001. the House of Lords Economics Committee wrote that "We have some concerns about the objectivity of the IPCC process.372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97±98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." It doubted the high emission scenarios and said that the IPCC had "played-down" what the committee called "some positive aspects of global warming".[46] the IPCC replied that "individual scientists can do what they wish in their own rights. the IPCC accurately reported the state of scientific understandings of tropical cyclones and climate change in its recent summary for policy makers"." whereas Naomi Oreskes said that the paper shows that "the vast majority of working [climate] research scientists are in agreement [on climate change]. Those who don't agree.[46] In 2005. and gave their support for the IPCC [30] Opponents have generally attacked either the IPCC's processes. Some of the controversy and criticism has originated from experts invited by the IPCC to submit reports or serve on its panels.

a contributing author."[53] Climate scientist James E. While some critics have argued that the IPCC overstates likely global warming."[55] Henderson-Sellers has collected comments from IPCC authors in a 2007 workshop revealing a number of concerns. The impact of Kyotolike proposals will be too small for we scientists to measure due to the natural variations of climate and the lack of precision in our observing system. has also stated that "Humans are significantly altering the global climate.S. Additionally. such as the southern third of Florida.[52] Science editor Brooks Hanson states in a 2010 editorial: "The IPCC reports have underestimated the pace of climate change while overestimating societies' abilities to curb greenhouse gas emissions.[50] On December 10. the IPCC reports give conservative estimates of the likely extent and effects of global warming.[citation needed] have been disputed.000 or so reviewers. We have no control over editing decisions.were rejected in the response made by the United Kingdom government[49] and by the Stern Review. David Biello. writing in the Scientific American. The IPCC assessments have been too conservative in recognizing the importance of these human climate forcings as they alter regional and global climate. a report was released by the U.[50] He added: I¶ve written a number of papers about the precision of our climate records. Poland. wrote: Contributing authors essentially are asked to contribute a little text at the beginning and to review the first two drafts. Hansen argues that the IPCC's conservativeness seriously underestimates the risk of sea-level rise on the order of meters²enough to inundate many lowlying areas.[51] Many of the claims about the numbers of individuals listed in the report. The timing of the report coincided with the UN global warming conference in Pozna . Pielke Sr. the climate system is immensely complicated and really cannot be tweaked for a predictable outcome. argues that. Even less influence is granted the 2.[56] . under the leadership of the Senate's most vocal global warming skeptic Jim Inhofe. Speaking to the difficulty of establishing scientific consensus on the precise extent of human action on climate change.[54] Roger A. It claims to summarize scientific dissent from the IPCC. In other words we will not be able to tell lawmakers with high confidence that specific regulations achieve anything in terms of climate in this country or the world. whether they are actually scientists. Thus. but in a variety of diverse ways beyond the radiative effect of carbon dioxide. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Minority members. John Christy. others have made the opposite criticism. and whether they support the positions attributed to them.000 reviewers reached consensus on anything describes a situation that is not reality. to say that 800 contributing authors or 2. because of the need to secure consensus among governmental representatives. 2008.

[citation needed] Carbon dioxide causes between 9 and 26% of the natural greenhouse effect. While it is generally agreed that variations before the industrial age are mostly timed by astronomical forcing. Nonetheless. the Earth had an atmospheric CO2 concentration estimated at 4400ppm (or 0. The purpose of the range of scenarios is not to predict what exact course the future of emissions will take.[citation needed] In the Ordovician period of the Paleozoic era (about 450 million years ago).[58] This has been used to argue that the current rise in CO2 is a result of warming and not a cause.[59] the current variations. volcanoes.[64] Climate models can be run using any of the scenarios as inputs to illustrate the different outcomes for climate change. climate models are only able to simulate the temperature record of the past century when GHG forcing is included.[60] Carbon dioxide accounts for about 383 parts per million by volume (ppm) of the Earth's atmosphere. Global warming skeptic Fred Singer stated that "some good experts believe" that atmospheric CO2 concentration will not double since economies are becoming less reliant on carbon.[62] As noted above.[61] A 2006 study suggests that the elevated CO2 levels and the glaciation are not synchronous.44% of the atmosphere). Modeling work has shown that it is possible for local areas at elevations greater than 300 500 meters to contain year-round snow cover even with high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. increasing from 278 ppm in the 1880s to over 380 ppm in 2005.[57] y y y Studies of ice cores show that carbon dioxide levels rise and fall with or after (as much as 1000 years) temperature variations. one argument against global warming claims that rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) do not correlate with global warming. Correlation of CO2 and temperature is not part of this evidence. are claimed to be timed by anthropogenic releases of CO2 (thus returning the argument to the importance of human CO2 emissions). being consistent with the findings of the IPCC which has stated that: "Greenhouse gas forcing. and thus is not a response to rising temperatures as would be required if the same processes creating past lags were active now. largely the result of human activities. but what it may take under a range of possible population. while also having evidence of some glaciation. of whatever size. economic and societal trends. but rather that weathering associated with the uplift and erosion of the Appalachian Mountains greatly reduced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and permitted the observed glaciation. Analysis of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 shows that the recent observed CO2 increase cannot have come from the oceans. There is debate about the various scenarios for fossil fuel consumption.Greenhouse gases Attribution of recent climate change discusses the evidence for recent global warming. or the biosphere. but in practice the "A1b" scenario roughly corresponding to 1%/year growth in atmospheric CO2 is often used for modelling studies. No one scenario is officially preferred.[65] . has very likely caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years"[63] The "standard" set of scenarios for future atmospheric greenhouse gases are the IPCC SRES scenarios.

However. Solar activity could affect climate either by variation in the Sun's output or. ocean currents. disagree. concluded "that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.[68] The TAR said. more speculatively. "The combined change in radiative forcing of the two major natural factors (solar variation and volcanic aerosols) is estimated to be negative for the past two. but the previous statement is consistent with the AR4's figure 4. by an indirect effect on the amount of cloud formation.000 years.[73] Mike Lockwood and Claus Fröhlich reject the claim that the warming observed in the global mean surface temperature record since about 1850 is the result of solar variations. Some say only that it has not yet been ascertained whether humans are the primary cause of global warming. concluding that: Increasing scarcity of fossil fuels alone will not stop emissions growth in time. According to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.[70] Muscheler et al. notes the past correlation between CO2 emissions and economic growth and then extrapolates using a "business as usual" scenario to predict GDP growth and hence CO2 levels. The stocks of hydrocarbons that are profitable to extract are more than enough to take the world to levels of CO2 well beyond 750ppm with very dangerous consequences for climate change impacts. The Stern report. decades. "the earth would warm by 8 degrees Celsius (14.4 degrees Fahrenheit) if humans use the entire planet's available fossil fuels by the year 2300."[67] Solar variation Scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming express varied opinions concerning the cause of global warming."[72] Another point of controversy is the correlation of temperature with solar variation. concluded that "solar activity reconstructions tell us that only a minor fraction of the recent global warming can be explained by the variable Sun. compared to 1." and that "at the most 30% of the strong warming since then can be of solar origin. suggesting that other comparably high levels of activity have occurred several times in the last few thousand years.[74] Lockwood and Fröhlich conclude that "the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability. Solanki and co-workers suggest that solar activity for the last 60 to 70 years may be at its highest level in 8."[69] The AR4 makes no direct assertions on the recent role of solar forcing. increased solar activity or cosmic rays.12 W/m since 1750.6 W/m for the net anthropogenic forcing. The consensus position is that solar radiation may have increased by 0. . Muscheler et al.[66] like many other reports."[71] Solanki et al. A few studies claim that the present level of solar activity is historically high as determined by sunspot activity and other factors. whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified. and possibly the past four. others attribute global warming to natural variation.

[80] Parker (2006) found that there was no difference in warming between calm and windy nights.[83][84] In response. Pielke and Stephen McIntyre have criticized the US instrumental temperature record and adjustments to it. temp history using only those weather stations identified so far as meeting the requirements to be CRN level 1 (excellent) or level 2 (good) stations.05 °C (0. .. Anthony Watts began a volunteer effort to photographically document the siting quality of these stations.[85] Based on the work of Watts.S. Skeptics contend that stations located in more populated areas could show warming due to increased heat generated by cities. The overall aerosol and cloud induced surface climate forcing is ~+1 W mí2 decí1 and has most probably strongly contributed to the recent rapid warming in Europe. followed by 1998 and 2006. the quality of the surface station network and what they view as unwarranted adjustments to the temperature record. Peterson (2003) found no difference between the warming observed in urban and rural areas. this was taken as evidence that global temperature trends are not significantly contaminated by urban effects.09 °F) degrees through 1990. and Pielke and others have criticized the poor quality siting of a number of weather stations in the United States. On the reliability of temperature records Instrumental temperature record Skeptics have questioned the accuracy of the instrumental temperature record on the basis of the urban heat island effect.[79] More recently. Another example of this is in Ruckstuhl's paper who found a 60% reduction in aerosol concentrations over Europe causing solar brightening:[77] [.. rather than a global temperature rise. Roger A. but cites analyses of historical data indicating that the effect of the urban heat island on the global temperature trend is no more than 0. McIntyre's analysis has not been published in the peer-reviewed literature.[86] McIntyre has made all of his methods.S.] the direct aerosol effect had an approximately five times larger impact on climate forcing than the indirect aerosol and other cloud effects. were 1934 and 1921. Since the urban heat island effect is strongest for calm nights and is weak or absent on windy nights.[81] Pielke and Matsui published a paper disagreeing with Parker's conclusions.[78] The IPCC Third Assessment Report acknowledges that the urban heat island is an important local effect. this forcing has (relatively) declined.Aerosols forcing The "pause" in warming from the 1940s to 1960's is generally attributed to cooling effect of sulphate aerosols. Stephen McIntyre has completed a reconstruction of U. The higher quality stations indicate the warmest years in the U. which may have enhanced warming.[82] More recently. data and code available for others to reproduce his findings. though the effect is regionally varying.[75][76] More recently. See global dimming.

The trends elsewhere show both warming and cooling but are smaller and dependent on season and the timespan over which the trend is computed.[96] To the extent that a controversy exists it is confined to the popular press and blogs. our results have been misused as "evidence" against global warming by Crichton in his novel 'State of Fear'. has its temperature derived from lower-altitude areas in the Amazon Basin and in Peru. Climate Change Science Program noted that models and observations agreed on this amplification for monthly and interannual time scales but not for decadal time scales in most observed data sets. it is claimed that large regions of the temperature record are derived from other weather stations in the region..[91] Antarctica cooling Various individuals. stated that ".[92] have asserted that Antarctic temperature measurements[93] contradict global warming.[99] ( Ts): Ts = RF.[94][95] Climate models predict that future trends in Antarctica are much smaller than in the Arctic. leading the IPCC to conclude that this discrepancy is reconciled. agree there is no contradiction. there is no evidence of a related controversy within the scientific community. Peter Doran. Specifically. He states that this is done by cherry picking weather stations in order to show a warming trend. Observations unambiguously show the Peninsula to be warming. For example. A 2006 report to the U.[98] Climate sensitivity Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature ( Ts) following a unit change in the radiative forcing(RF)..5 °C with a best estimate of about 3 °C. Improved measurement and analysis techniques have reconciled this discrepancy: corrected buoy and satellite surface temperatures are slightly cooler and corrected satellite and radiosonde measurements of the tropical troposphere are slightly warmer. Bolivia. for example RealClimate.. where is the climate sensitivity parameter [100] This value is estimated by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as "likely to be in the range 2 to 4.[90] Satellite temperature measurements show that tropospheric temperatures are increasing with "rates similar to those of the surface temperature".[87][88][89] Tropospheric temperature record General circulation models and basic physical considerations predict that in the tropics the temperature of the troposphere should increase more rapidly than the temperature of the surface.Joe D'Aleo and other climate skeptics have also suggested that the NOAA and GISS temperature records show a warming trend due to the reduction of the number of weather stations used to calculate the average world temperature.S. the lead author of the paper cited by Crichton."[97] Others." .. a landlocked and high-altitude country. most notably writer Michael Crichton.

5 K. discovered "a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean-atmosphere system" in tropical intraseasonal oscillations that "may potentially support" the idea of an "Iris" effect. Gavin Schmidt. produces ocean temperature behavior similar to that observed: warming from 1900 to 1940.0 to 11.[105][106] Petr Chylek and co-authors have also proposed low climate sensitivity to doubled CO2.. . assumed to be proportional to a weighted average of the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices since 1900.09 °K / (W/m2). internal radiative forcing amounting to little more than 1 W m-2. estimated to be 1.35+/-0.[107] Infrared iris hypothesis Richard Lindzen proposed an Infrared Iris hypothesis of compensating meteorological processes that tend to stabilize climate change. then slight cooling through the 1970s.[102] Grant Foster. which is consistent with a variety of historical datasets. .Using a combination of surface temperature history and ocean heat content.[109] Other analyses have found that the iris effect is a positive feedback rather than the negative feedback proposed by Lindzen. Astronomer Nir Shaviv also has computed a value for climate sensitivity of 0. such feedbacks include decreased reflection of solar radiation as sea ice melts.6 K 0.. .] mixing up of cause and effect when observing natural climate variability can lead to the mistaken conclusion that the climate system is more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than it really is. [. Temperature predictions Conventional predictions of future temperature rises depend on estimates of future GHG emissions (see SRES) and the climate sensitivity.. it provides a quantitative mechanism for the (minority) view that global warming is mostly a manifestation of natural internal climate variability. Models referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.] low frequency.1 to 6.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100.[113] .[111][112] [.[108] Roy Spencer et al..[101] revised upwards from 1. Others have proposed that temperature increases may be higher than IPCC estimates.9 1. Stephen E. and Michael E. Mann[103][104] argue that there are errors in both versions of Schwartz's analysis. as well as 70% of the observed centennial temperature trend. and the potential release of large volumes of methane from thawing permafrost..1 0. exposing darker seawater. Schwartz has proposed an estimate of climate sensitivity of 1.4 K. One theory is that the climate may reach a "tipping point" where positive feedback effects lead to runaway global warming. although they point out that their work is concerned with much shorter time scales. James Annan. Spencer's hypothesis has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal.0 K for doubled CO2.4 °C (2. then resumed warming up to the present.[110] Internal radiative forcing Roy Spencer hypothesizes there is an "Internal Radiative Forcing" affecting climate variability.

concluding that "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution. This prediction has proved to be an underestimate.[116] Forecasts confidence The IPCC states it has increased confidence in forecasts coming from General Circulation Models or GCMs. when Dr. Chapter 8 of AR4 reads: There is considerable confidence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change. skeptics and otherwise. The actual increase by 2000 was about 29%. predicted that by the year 2000.[114] Some scientists. Over several decades of development. Orrell says that the range of future increase in temperature suggested by the IPCC rather represents a social consensus in the climate community.g. Bert Bolin. temperature) than for others (e.[118][119][120] Arctic shrinkage One unsettled question related to temperature rises is if or when the Arctic sea may become icefree in the summer (winter sea ice remains in all scenarios). But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.[115] A 2007 study by David Douglass and coworkers concluded that the 22 most commonly used global climate models used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposphere although they did match actual surface warming. say that climate change cannot be accurately predicted. there would be a 25% increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere compared to the levels in 1859.g.. Confidence in model estimates is higher for some climate variables (e."[122] Data archiving and sharing Scientific journals and funding agencies generally require authors of peer-reviewed research to archive all of the data necessary to reproduce their research. Arctic specialist Mark Serreze said. but adds that "we are having a dangerous effect on the climate".[117] Certain scientists. in a speech to the National Academy of Sciences. precipitation).An example of a prediction that has been tested comes from 1959.." This result contrasts a similar study of 19 models which found that discrepancies between model predictions and actual temperature were likely due to measurement errors. This confidence comes from the foundation of the models in accepted physical principles and from their ability to reproduce observed features of current climate and past climate changes. If another scientist attempts to . such as David Orrell or Henk Tennekes. believe this confidence in the models¶ ability to predict future climate is not earned. or 2070 maybe. particularly at continental scales and above.[121] "If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice then I would have said 2100. models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases. following the record low in 2007.

. However. balance. serves as an example of climate scientists not abiding by these policies and suggested that legislators might ultimately take action to enforce them. most notably by Saudi Arabia. There haven't been--globally averaged. After much debate. it appeared that there were attempts to blunt. Trenberth stated: The SPM was approved line by line by governments[.] . The most contentious paragraph in the IPCC (2001) SPM was the concluding one on attribution. the era of human civilization.[123] Political In the U. if we warm up more than a degree or two.000 years. "A few degrees? So what? If I change my thermostat a few degrees.The argument here is that the scientists determine what can be said. (Stephen H. authors are expected (with few exceptions) to provide the data. methods and source code that may be necessary. I'll live fine. the messages in the report.. So we're actually getting into uncharted territory from the point of view of the relatively benign climate of the last 10. Dr David Legates has claimed that Mann.. global warming is often a partisan political issue. most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations". clarity of message. Whether decisions require less uncertainty The single largest issue is the importance of a few degrees rise in temperature: Most people say. we're talking--fluctuations of more than a degree or so... The IPCC process is dependent on the good will of the participants in producing a balanced assessment. and taking into account the remaining uncertainties. The social and environmental impacts 2.[125] Climatologist Kevin E. Schneider[127]) . and perhaps obfuscate.000 years. while Democrats tend to support actions that they believe will reduce global warming and its effects through the control of greenhouse gas emissions.[124][dead link] Recently. [The] point is that one or two degrees is about the experience that we have had in the last 10. Bradley and Hughes 1998.reproduce the research and needs additional data. famous for its hockey stick-shaped historic temperature reconstruction. but the governments determine how it can best be said." .[126] As more evidence has become available over the existence of global warming debate has moved to further controversial issues.. Negotiations occur over wording to ensure accuracy. This led to very protracted debates over wording on even bland and what should be uncontroversial text. the following was carefully crafted: "In the light of new evidence.S. and relevance to understanding and policy. The appropriate response to climate change 3. including: 1. in Shanghai. metadata. bipartisan measures have been introduced. Republicans tend to oppose action against a threat that they regard as unproven.

they have rankings of 121st largest per capita emitter at 3. And it is required for the way we live. Romm discusses the urgency to act and the sad fact that America is refusing to do so. the world's two most populous countries. failing to take into consideration other potential impacts of any change. of the technocrats" and thus has lost them the support of a public which is increasingly skeptical of global warming. both ratified the protocol but are not required to reduce or even limit the growth of carbon emissions under the present agreement even though when listed by greenhouse gas emissions per capita. including the Cato Institute. President of Western Fuels Association[129]) Conversely. Hell and High Water. restrictions on the use of fossil fuels to reduce carbondioxide emissions) should be taken now. for our economic success. and whether those restrictions would have any meaningful effect on global temperature.[129] The linkage between coal. Coal-fired electricity generation. Environmentalists' more recent advocacy for big economic and social intervention against global warming. Nevertheless. and would reduce the risk of catastrophic." According to Mead. or in the near future. China is the world's second largest producer of greenhouse . and is also highly controversial.[131] Kyoto Protocol Main article: Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto protocol is the most prominent international agreement on climate change.[citation needed] Because of the economic ramifications of such restrictions..9 Tonnes of CO2e.8 Tonnes of CO2e respectively.[128] They claim that even if global warming is caused solely by the burning of fossil fuels. has made them. there are those. who feel strongly that the negative economic effects of emission controls outweigh the environmental benefits. Some argue that it goes too far[132] or not nearly far enough[133] in restricting emissions of greenhouse gases. irreversible change. Another area of controversy is the fact that China and India. "the voice of the establishment. others feel strongly that early action to reduce emissions would help avoid much greater economic costs later. of the tenured. environmentalist used to represent the skeptical few who made valid arguments against big government programs which tried to impose simple but massive solutions on complex situations.9 Tonnes of CO2e and 162nd largest per capita emitter at 1. Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Walter Russell Mead argues that the 2009 Copenhagen Summit failed because environmentalists have changed from "Bambi to Godzilla. electricity. a strictly economic argument for or against action on climate change is limited at best. the way we work. according to Mead. Ultimately.(Fred Palmer. however. and economic growth in the United States is as clear as it can be. a libertarian think tank.The other point that leads to major controversy²because it could have significant economic impacts²is whether action (usually. It is necessary. restricting their use would have more damaging effects on the world economy than the increases in global temperature.[130] In his December 2006 book.. and for our future. compared with for example the USA at position of the 14th largest per capita CO2e emitter at 22. energy technology expert Joseph J.