Hector Chapa Sikazwe Newcastle upon Tyne 2011

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Libyan Revolution Arab awakening Hector Chapa Sikazwe Newcastle upon Tyne, 2011

Key words Revolution, Arab unrest, Egypt Israel peace treaty, oil prices, United Nations, Moammar Gadhafi, Human rights, Middle East regimes, Media frenzy, Western propaganda, Political isolation, Street demonstrations, Aristocratic rulers, Mugabe, Obama, Mubarak

Disclaimer The research, opinions and content in this document are not to be used for any political, economic, religious, legal, spiritual or personal evaluations of current situation around the world as they are simply the author‟s interpretation of the events as they unfold and reported in the media and the Internet. This information is copyrighted.

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Abstract The United States and Great Britain have shared the embarrassment of western nations over the fall of Middle Eastern regimes they once backed, but the Lockerbie bombing makes their policy on Libya harder to justify. London's recent condemnations of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi‟s bloody crackdown on protesters rang hollow after nearly a decade of rapprochement with the oil-rich nation despite the 1988 attack on Pan Am Flight 103. International commentators and experts on the crisis‟s as they unfold in the north of Africa and the middle east said that even gestures like the release in 2009 of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmet al-Megrahi, the only person ever convicted over the bombing, has failed to win Britain any real leverage with Gadhafi. The wanton double dealings with this depraved regime and dictator in the recent past have made the two super powers to sound like a toothless dog barking when prowler are in the grounds. The call by the two super-powers at the UN that Libya should face international condemnation sounds hollow when viewed from the vantage point of the Palestinian shelling of innocents by the Israelites. Western Countries that have shown little or no comment on the plight of the Palestinians have no moral grounds to speak against the Libyan despot dictator. Significantly, African Nations have silently supported the Pan Africanism champion, the Libyan leader with mercenaries as the realisation that the playing field is never even when dealing with the United States and Great Britain. Most Pan-African persuaded leaders have secretly and in some cases like in the Chad leadership been emboldened to supply a front against Western propaganda and strengthen the African dream of independence from Colonial powers. The current crisis is proving to be a wakeup call for the Western world.

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Table of Contents
Key words ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0 Introduction and background ...................................................................................................... 5 Major Imports and Exports ..................................................................................................... 5 Major Trading Partners ........................................................................................................... 6 Libyan marriage with the West ............................................................................................... 7 Western Double standards .......................................................................................................... 8 Italian link ............................................................................................................................. 12 South African link ................................................................................................................. 13 The United States and British link ........................................................................................ 13 French Link ........................................................................................................................... 15 Germany Link ....................................................................................................................... 16 Snapshot of repression/demonstrations in 8 Arab Countries .................................................... 16 LIBYA .......................................................................................................................................... 16 IRAQ ............................................................................................................................................. 17 YEMEN ........................................................................................................................................ 17 EGYPT.......................................................................................................................................... 17 BAHRAIN .................................................................................................................................... 17 JORDAN ....................................................................................................................................... 18 TUNISIA....................................................................................................................................... 18 SAUDI ARABIA .......................................................................................................................... 18 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Arab unrest a threat to global peace .......................................................................................... 18 Unrest is a threat to Fight against terrorism .......................................................................... 19 Unrest affects World economy as Oil prices surge ............................................................... 20 Unrest threatens peace of Israel ............................................................................................ 21 Reactions from African Nations ............................................................................................... 23 Counter propaganda regarding Libya ....................................................................................... 23 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 25 Bibliography and references ..................................................................................................... 27

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1.0

Introduction and background

Libya's international trade has been characterized by a positive balance since the 1960s. One estimate put its 1999 balance as US$7.01 billion in exports, and US$4.21 billion in imports, creating a trade surplus of US$2.79 billion, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Oil and gas and their refined products accounted for about 95% of Libya's exports in 1999. Its major imports are food, capital goods, transport equipment, and iron and steel products. According to the World Trade Organization, trade represented 101.9% of Libya‟s GDP from 2004-2006. In 2008, merchandise exports totalled over $63 billion while merchandise imports totalled over $11.5 billion. Also in 2008, commercial services exports totalled $385 million while commercial services imports totalled over $2.3 billion.1 1.1 Major Imports and Exports

According to the International Trade Centre, the top five export categories for Libya in 2008, along with percentage of total exports, were: (a) Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc. (96.7%) (b) Organic chemicals (1%) (c) Iron and steel (less than 1%) (d) Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc. (less than 1%) (e) Fertilizers (less than 1%) According to the International Trade Centre, the top five import categories for Libya in 2008, along with percentage of total imports, were: (a) Boilers, machinery, nuclear reactors, etc. (17.4%) (b) Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc. (12.6%)
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Sources: World Trade Organization, International Trade Centre, and The World Factbook

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(c) Electrical and electronic equipment (8.4%) (d) Vehicles other than railway (7.1%) (e) Articles of iron and steel (5.1%) 1.2 Major Trading Partners

The top three countries to which Libya exports merchandise, along with percentage of exports, are: (a) Italy (38%) (b) Germany (12%) (c) France (7.4%) The top three countries which import merchandise to Libya, along with percentage of imports, are: (a) Italy (22.2%) (b) China (9.3%) (c) Germany (8.6%) Significantly, Libya has reduced its trade with the ex-socialist countries since 1991, while expanding trade with North African and Western countries. The suspension of UN sanctions removed barriers to trade with most Western countries. Italy, Germany, Spain, Turkey, France, Sudan, the UK, and Tunisia have been the major destinations of exports for Libya since 1990. With 40.1 %, 17.8 %, and 11.3 % share of exports, the first 3 countries were the largest destinations in 1998. In that year, Italy, Germany, the UK, France, Tunisia, Belgium,

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Luxembourg, Spain, and Japan were the major exporters to Libya. The first 3 were the largest exporters in 1998 with 22.9 %, 12.2 %, and 9.1 % share of exports, respectively.2 1.3 Libyan marriage with the West

The World super powers are allowed to decide with impunity the direction of the world order and receive little resistance from puppet leaders they have installed around the World. Countries that have Oil or any raw material that the Western world carves has always received special attention and those Nations that have nothing of value to supply to the demand market of the world remain on the list of the list developed and assisted regions of the World. Africa and South American Countries that have little to offer the world have remained lower on the economic and developmental tables of the World. The western super powers have always used their wanton eye of selfish and economic enslavement tactics to acquire and control all areas of the World that possess raw materials and future echelon of economic will power. When leaders of the Western World like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday 24th of February 2011 condemned the “appalling” violence in Libya, where protesters are trying to topple Moammar Gadhafi comment on what is going on in Libya, then it is time to close the curtains and close the show. The Israeli leader drew parallels between the actions of the Libyan regime and Iran's response to anti-government protests in 2009. In both cases, he said, “the regime's security forces intentionally opened fire on protesters.” Human rights organisations have repeatedly accused Israel of indiscriminately firing at Palestinian civilians. Silence from Western media is deafeningly loud.

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http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Africa/Libya-INTERNATIONALTRADE.html#ixzz1F0Vq3jw7

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The double standards that the Western governments apply in addressing issues that concern most vulnerable third World situations go a long way in creating distrust and suspicion of the motives and intentions of these Western governments when they make pronunciations that do not match their practical disposition when faced with similar and articulate circumstances.

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Western Double standards

Chaos in Libya could pose a threat to Mediterranean economies. The unrest in the oil-rich North African country, and the subsequent bloody reaction of its authoritarian regime, could soon present a serious strategic challenge for Western governments and corporate titans that recently embraced the long-pariah state. There are serious issues that need to be addressed urgently before the situation in Tripoli gets to be “water under the bridge” as most situations mishandled by Western governments elsewhere. The double standards that are now surfacing from Western governments need to be unveiled, shamed and exposed as it seems the world has no voice to address the despotic tyrant without exposing the dirty hands that most Western governments have in the prevailing issues. The rebels in Libya have been fighting back effectively in a way that makes TV watching a miserable pass time. The UK television and general media reporting of events have been virtually one sided in the mainstream media which has largely reflected the government line that Gaddafi is on the verge of crushing Benghazi, killing his own people, thousands of Libyans killed, possible “sported mass graves, soon “gassing of his own people” , raping unprotected women (Don‟t ask where their husbands are when they are out meeting the Gadhafi soldiers) They have reported this for the past three weeks without tangible or credible evidence that would be submitted later in a court of law in case the events of this nature come up in an international court of justice.

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On the other hand, the rebels have in fact created an air force (Puzzling how they have obtained fighter planes and flown them in air space that UN resolution 1973 forbids) which they did not have at the beginning of the revolution. Events are frustratingly upsetting to minds that demand justice, truth, fairness, transparency and human rights concerns. The media have held the masses gagging for the rupture of defections of Gadhafi‟s men around him as Moussa Koussa, the clever and astute ex foreign minister “sauntered into” the UK with a white flag after master-minding the massacre of Scottish and American citizens in the Lockerbie bombing scandal. Incidentally, some Pilots have defected and are fighting on the rebel‟s side and have assisted in supplying intelligence and vital information for the rebels on the frontline of battle. The rebels have gallantly fought the intended fight for freedom and democracy for their beloved beleaguered Nation. They have brought down three or four Gaddafi jets. They have captured tanks and taken the surrender of hundreds of Gaddafi troops. The rebels have nevertheless needed help from the western governments for what has now become a nightmare for British foreign minister William Hague and the poor French President Sarkozy who is attempting to regain support in his right wing-oriented-government that has waning support and power in the Country that is equally fighting descent from Moslems. The United States have “with dignity” withdrawn from the war as it has increasingly looked complex and un-winnable like Afghanistan and Iraq. On the domestic front, Obama has customary desired to whip up the chauvinism that always attends war rhetoric so that all eyes shift from Wisconsin to the USAF in Libya. How terrific for David Cameron if all eyes shift away from the great TUC anti-cuts demo on the 26th March 2011 to the RAF flying gallantly in the gulf air space? Such is the status quo as the world watches in wonder as events of history unfold with different conspiracy theories being touted or advanced on a daily basis whilst Africans massacre each other on the battle field.
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Resolution 1973 has made the UN rush to intervene to get control of the situation before the example of popular power that is Benghazi boasts off takes over Libyan government without the west being involved. The idea seems to be that If the Libyan rebels were to win without the West‟s aid, then there would be no dictator, even one willing to use murderous force, even in Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, would be safe. There are specific dangerous scenarios that the West‟s leaders would not want to unfold in the Middle East revolutionary atmosphere. Even though the West has had failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West wants to rehabilitate the „humanitarian intervention‟ argument that has been used to propagate terror and awe into the hearts of hapless African leaders. The West wants to get a foothold in fast developing Arab revolutions which have so shaken the imperial architecture of the Middle East. It is paradoxical that the international community with the backing of the UN resolution 1973 has intervened to stop the perceived massacre and eventual killing of Civilians in Libya. It is civically confusing that the UN has remained silent whilst standing akimbo as the Bahraini government, aided by the Saudis and the broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Yemeni government, Egyptian junta and the Syrian governments suppresses and actually continued to kill and maim hundreds of its own people with brutal force. Particularly, the Bahraini opposition groups have petitioned the United Nations to intervene on their behalf with the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressing his feeble "deepest concern" at the use of "excessive and indiscriminate force ... against unarmed civilians.” There are definitely no plans for the UN sponsored action as the West has their own agenda to fulfil. Similarly, Ivory Coast combatants have continued to massacre each other in hundreds with horrific barbaric scenes on the television screen, with Sarkozy and UN planes shelling embattled President. The UN has for the second time since the Kosovo war taken side in
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using force to bring about “forced peace”, in contradiction with its own chatter. The world is watching and wonders the legitimacy of the organisation as a peace-keeping organisation in the World. Commentaries have attributed the immoral intervention in the internal affairs of the Libyan situation by the UN and its puppets or sponsors depending on which side of the argument one reads the situation to the following reasons: (a) Moammar Gadhafi has alienated almost everyone in the region and had few international friends. Libya has Oil beggars on the door step but who have turned out to be the “enemy at the table” in the likes of the British, French, Italian and the United States. (b) Bahrain‟s ruling Al-Khalifa family has earned strong support in neighbouring Gulf States, along with goodwill from the United States, which has its Fifth Fleet stationed in the country (c) Arguably, it is silently feared that Bahrain's uprising, while cross-sectarian, would empower the Shia majority. Shia empowerment through democratization - which occurred in neighbouring Iraq – is feared by the Sunni minority in Bahrain, even by some who would welcome political reforms to make the ruling family more accountable to its populace. (d) Shia empowerment is certainly feared by Saudi Arabia, thus readily intervening to ensure Bahrain does not fall under Iranian influence. (e) The U.S. encourages Bahraini‟s democratic aspirations and worries that if Bahrain brutally puts down the protests, the demonstrators would turn to Iran for support. (f) The U.S. does not want to see revolution to change the echelons of power, but rather reform that would still maintain favourable US presence in the economic

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and security ally in the fight against terror and Russian, Iranian and Chinese rising influence. (g) More importantly and crucial to the US, among other things, revolution in Bahrain would disrupt oil supplies and control in the region that the US currently enjoys. (h) A final reason why the United States and the broader international community have been reluctant to even confront Bahrain and the Saudi troops is because the U.S. needs as much GCC support in Libya as possible. 2.1 Italian link

Italy, the country‟s former colonial ruler, which looks set to bear the major brunt of the fallout if the situation descends into uncontrolled turmoil, has deafeningly remained silent in this situation. As History has shown and is now slowly unfolding, four decades of rule under the unpredictable, manic driven Muammar Gaddafi quite expectedly has failed to deliver the “Brotherly Leader” and “Guide of the Revolution‟s vision of a “state of the masses” or “people‟s capitalism”. Noteworthy, Libya is one one of the most corrupt countries in the world, identified as a wealthy economy as it holds and accounts for 2 % of the global oil production on paper with little or no trickle at all of the profits from this fact as one can hardly see the wealth effects among the population of 6 million Libyans who suffer silently. The Country‟s strongest external ties, however, remain with Italy. Libya is a prominent feature on the Italian corporate landscape, with stakes in carmaker Fiat, banking group UniCredit and even the Juventus football team owned by the leader and Prime Minister Berlusconi. Italian oil giant Eni has a 14 billion Euro investment programme in the country, as well as supply contracts stretching to 2047. Overall Libyan oil accounts for around 27 % of Italy‟s consumption.

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2.2

South African link

South Africa was ahead of the curve in its dealings with Libya. Long before the Western world had resumed political and economic relations with Libya, South Africa was questioning the wisdom of vilifying and isolating Gaddafi. Indeed it could be argued that South Africa played a key role in Gaddafi‟s „rehabilitation‟. With UN sanctions still in force, Mandela visited Tripoli and Sirte to negotiate the Lockerbie deal. Mandela repeatedly defended his relations with Gaddafi, saying that neither the US nor any other power had the right to choose South Africa‟s friends. However, this political relationship has not translated into significant economic ties. A South African business delegation, led by then Minerals and Energy Affairs Minister Penuell Maduna, visited Sirte in 1999. It found that European business had jumped the gun on sanctions and grabbed the most important projects in a country effectively rebuilding itself after more than a decade of isolation. Gaddafi has shown himself to be extremely pragmatic in his business dealings, prioritising the bottom line above political ties. Despite its massive failings, Libya, as other similar countries, has won praise from the International Monetary Fund. The country‟s relationship with Western powers deepened after U.N. sanctions against it were lifted in 2003. 2.3 The United States and British link

The United States has increased its oil imports from the country, and unsavoury government dealings have helped the likes of British oil giant BP push on with a $900 million exploration contract in Libya. Many political commentaries have expressed dismay and bewilderment as the western governments have tepidly come out of the shadows to denounce and defame their economic and strategically enthroned ally Muammar Gaddafi when it has now increasingly become apparent that he is losing control of the Oil-rich Country. It would be interesting for these governments to unveil hitherto encrypted details of the nocturnal dealings that these
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governments have had with the dictator. For instance, what were the precise terms of the agreement that Britain reached with the US and Libya in 1999 that those convicted of the Lockerbie bombing would serve out their sentences in Scotland? Just what did Tony Blair say to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi when they met in 2004 and again, in the Libyan leader‟s tent, in 2007? Exactly what was going on inside the heads of British and Scottish government ministers during the fraught negotiations in recent months over the fate of Abdul Baset Ali alMegrahi? It is neither shocking nor surprising that both of Mr Blair‟s trips coincided with the announcement of big trade agreements for Shell and then BP. The oil industry clearly resents media speculation that such deals were linked to politics. BP denies that the Libyans put pressure on it over the fate of al-Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber, who until recently was languishing with terminal cancer in Greenock prison. Nor, says the company, did it lobby the British and Scottish governments over such issues. It is with a bowed glance to note that business ties between the UK and Libya are now extensive. The Libyan British Business Council, (LBBC) lists no less than 96 corporate members, and 26 council members on its website, which prominently features a photo of Gordon Brown sitting down with Gaddafi. Established in 2004, the LBBC “promotes business relations and commercial activity between the British and Libyan business communities, primarily through the provision of trade development initiatives and networking opportunities to our members and clients.” The LBBC‟s council members include some of Britain‟s biggest companies, such as BP, GlaxoSmithKline, KPMG, Shell, and Standard Chartered. It is with such issues embarrassingly being handled in secret that it makes William Hague look like a puppet as he warns the despot dictator that “the World is watching”. Such is the weakened position that Britain has paved way for itself in recent years.

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In May 2010, the United States and Libya signed a United States-Libya Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) aimed at strengthening and expanding trade and investment ties between the two once sworn enemies. The TIFA provided a formal mechanism to address bilateral trade issues and helped enhance trade and investment relations between the United States and Libya. The TIFA encouraged new trade and investment opportunities in both countries by establishing a cooperative forum for implementing specific strategies to enhance the U.S.-Libyan trade and investment relationship. Over the last two years, Ambassador Cretz and the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli have been at the forefront of efforts to expand bilateral commercial partnerships and foster closer business ties. It is no-wonder the silence that Obama, the champion of the “Yes we can” ideology has been met with subtle reprisals from the republican counterparts. Total two-way trade in 2009 between Libya and the United States was valued at $2.6 Billion. Libya is the United States‟ 69th largest goods trade partner. Top U.S. exports to Libya include vehicles, machinery, agricultural products, medical instruments, and iron and steel products. Oil was Libya‟s principal export to the United States in 2009. With such inside dealings, does Gaddafi need further assurance that he has friends? 2.4 French Link

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, was embroiled in a row over a major arms deal with Libya signed a week after he won the release of six jailed health workers. The French leader has repeatedly denied promising the weapons to Tripoli as part of a secret trade-off for the prisoners' freedom. However, he faces further controversy after the European aerospace company EADS announced it had signed a €296m (£216m) military deal with Libya. This has been linked to an amounting level of economic corporation between the two trade partners. France and Libya has had a bilateral trade worth 2.24 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in 2006, up 18% from a year earlier. French exports of 434 million euros vs imports of 1.90 billion euros from Libya. Factually, France was Libya's No. 6 foreign supplier in 2005, with a
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market share of 5.6%. Main French sales include capital goods, cars, food, pharmaceuticals and perfume. Oil accounts for 97% of France's imports from Libya, which supplies 2.5% of total French crude oil imports.3 2.5 Germany Link

Oil accounts for almost 99% of Libyan exports to Germany; the wheat, olives, tomatoes, salt and chalk that the country also sells are of little interest to the German market. Libya is one of the top five oil importers, but its contribution is dwarfed by the German market's two main sources, Russia and the North Sea. German imports to Libya, though of lesser value than the oil brought in, have been increasing in recent years, thanks to several major state contracts. Machine tools, often connected to the oil industry, accounted for much of the surge in trade between 2008 and 2009, when import figures doubled.

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Snapshot of repression/demonstrations in 8 Arab Countries4

Friday the 24th of February 2011 prayer day has been unique. Western governments stand in bewilderment as people have taken to the streets in various Islamic Nations: LIBYA Militias loyal to ruler Moammar Gadhafi open fire on thousands of protesters in the Libyan capital of Tripoli. One man says gunmen on rooftops and in the streets open fire with automatic weapons and even an anti-aircraft gun. Witnesses report at least four killed, while other say the toll is higher. In the evening, Gadhafi appears before a crowd of more than 1,000 supporters in Tripoli and urges them to fight protesters and "defend the nation." Tripoli is the centre of the eroding territory that Gadhafi still controls. The uprising that began Feb.

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Source: French embassy in Tripoli

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hgUj0q0Uuh7qW44f4RzFwMnSQIUQ?doc Id=6068270

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15 has swept over nearly the entire eastern half of the country, breaking cities there out of his regime's hold. IRAQ Thousands march on government buildings and clash with security forces in cities across Iraq. Twelve people are killed in the largest and most violent anti-government protests in the country since political unrest began spreading in the Arab world. In the capital of Baghdad, demonstrators knock down blast walls and throw rocks. The protests are fueled by anger over corruption, chronic unemployment and shoddy public services from the Shiite-dominated government. YEMEN Security forces open fire on thousands of demonstrators in the southern port city of Aden, wounding at least 19 people, in the latest confrontation with crowds pressing for the U.S.backed president's ouster. Tens of thousands of protesters march in different parts of the country. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has promised to step down after national elections in 2013, but the demonstrators want him out now. EGYPT Tens of thousands jam Cairo's main square. They are trying to keep up pressure on Egypt's military rulers to carry out reforms and call for the dismissal of holdovers from the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. Demonstrators say they are worried the army is not moving quickly enough on reforms, including repealing emergency laws and releasing political prisoners. BAHRAIN Tens of thousands fill the central square of Bahrain's capital, Manama. Protesters have taken to the streets every day for the past two weeks, asking for sweeping political concessions from the ruling monarch. Security forces make no attempt to halt the marches.
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Bahrain is the first Gulf state to be thrown into turmoil by the Arab world's wave of change. The unrest is highly significant for Washington because Bahrain sits at the centre of its military framework in the region. JORDAN About 4,000 protesters rally in the capital, Amman, the largest crowd yet in two months of unrest. The leader of Jordan's largest opposition group warns that patience is running out with what he called the government's slow steps toward reform. King Abdullah II, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, has so far failed to quiet the calls for sweeping political change. The protesters want a bigger say in politics and for the prime minister to be chosen through elections, not by the king. TUNISIA Police in Tunis fired warning shots and tear gas to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters in the centre of the capital. Demonstrators massed in front of the Interior Ministry to call for the ouster of the interim government that has run Tunisia since strongman ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was toppled Jan. 14 and fled into exile. Tunisia has been relatively calm since Ben Ali's ouster. SAUDI ARABIA About 300 Shiites protest against the Sunni-led government in a march in the east of the country. They disperse peacefully under the close watch of Saudi security forces. The kingdom had been largely quiet, and its ruler earlier this week promised a massive package of economic aid, including interest-free home loans, in hopes of forestalling unrest.

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Arab unrest a threat to global peace

If the unrest is not controlled, there is a threat to World peace that is under great strain already. The World order is under renewed threat as the status quo that has been fragile in the

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past few years after the invasion of Iran and later the occupation of Afghanistan by the allied forces. There has not been a more simmering situation than the era post the September “9/11” activities in America. The World has sought a lasting solution to World peace and the threat from Iran Nuclear situation, stand-off between North Korea and South Korea, the Philippines uprising, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and the resultant Iraq civil war. The UN through the Security Council has been toothless by issuing baseless resolutions and sanctions that are practically ignored by the warring factions, much to the frustration of the United States and the western governments. Humanitarian catastrophic threat is looming on the horizon and the western governments have to realise the imminent situation is almost above the world. 4.1 Unrest is a threat to Fight against terrorism

The unrest engulfing Arab streets and threatening authoritarian governments is complicating the United States counter-terrorism efforts, scrambling the volatile battleground against alQaida in Yemen and raising concerns about the durability of Egypt's stance against militants. US counterterrorism officials have to quickly embrace and firm up relationships with veteran Mideast intelligence and security services in the aftermath of the current momentous changes that are taking place. Lingering confusion over who will take the reins of power could hamper instant decision-making in the short term and Western governments are very concerned with the resultant immigration checks. The unrest is bound to act as a dispersal of terrorists and undesirable characters that will globally move in the guise of being “refugees”! Illegal migration has suddenly become a present and dangerous loop-hole for terrorists. Invariably, over the longer term, the US is faced with the daunting task to be able to work as closely against al-Qaida and other terrorist groups if important allies such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh cede power to Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. This issue is what is boggling the minds of diplomats as they uneasily look at the unfolding nature of the Arab political arena.
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Egypt's toughest counter-terrorism challenge ahead may come as US officials are forced to work with a new government that includes the Muslim Brotherhood, seeking common ground against terrorist enemies even if the Islamic faction tries to distance Egypt from its neighbour, Israel. American political leaders have long fused counterterror aims with support for Israel, and contending with an altered Arab world landscape with rising Islamic factions could force hard choices. 4.2 Unrest affects World economy as Oil prices surge

Businesses around the World are getting cautious across the Middle East and not taking major investment decisions as many believe the political uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain may alter the strategic balance in the restive region. These fears are reflected in the past few economic doldrums that the markets have indicated. Political unrest has swept the Arab world as popular uprisings have toppled governments in Egypt and Tunisia, while Libya, Yemen and Algeria are witnessing widespread protests against their respective governments. There have also been demonstrations in Algeria, Jordan, Iraq and Morocco. However, what is most disturbing for the businesses in the Gulf region, home to some 5 million Indian diaspora, accounting for nearly 70% of the inward remittances of around $57 billion into the country is the rising political unrest in Bahrain. BAHRAIN5 is an island kingdom in the Persian Gulf with a population of about 1.2 million. The People's Republic of China is 12,000 times as large and 1000 times as populous. Yet what is happening in Manama ought to be profoundly disquieting to the strongmen of Beijing. Seen from a distance, the Arab revolts of 2011 all seem connected and broadly similar. Its people have a per capita GDP of $27,000, women have the franchise and the country is an excellent place in

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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/bahrains-bourgeois-revolt-a-lesson-for-chinas-leaders/storye6frg6ux-1226011575286#content

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which to invest. And despite having a minority Sunni government ruling over the Shi'ite majority, the country is religiously tolerant enough to have a Jewish woman as its ambassador to the US. Yet on closer inspection the convulsing states of the Arab world look more like Tolstoy's classic description of unhappy families, each is unhappy in its own way. Yemen's protests have a large secessionist element. The demonstrators in Tahrir Square were urban middle class. Libya's revolt has an important tribal dimension. The protests in Algiers are largely about rising prices and mass unemployment. The beleaguered regimes also vary widely, from the mildly authoritarian in Morocco to the brutishly totalitarian in Libya. Oil prices shot as high as $103 a barrel on Thursday 24th of February 2011 as chaos in Libya disrupted crude supplies from the OPEC nation, and trader‟s worried instability could spread to other oil-rich countries in the Middle East. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for April delivery was up $2.43 at $100.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, it rose as high as $103.41. The contract, which has soared about 20% since last week, jumped $2.68 to settle at $98.10 on Wednesday 4.3 Unrest threatens peace of Israel

Egypt's internal turmoil and the region‟s unrest have sparked Israeli fears of a hostile regime replacing that of President Hosny Mubarak, jeopardizing a 31-year-old peace treaty between the two countries. If such an occasion transpired, then Israel and Egypt might be faced with a very uneasy situation. Both nations have much to lose if the agreement is cancelled. According to the Islamist militant Muslim Brotherhood, whose spokesmen have avoided directly answering questions about the peace with Israel, it would not be a simple move to just walk away from the Peace treaty. The organisation fully knows, much like others that ending the treaty would lead to international isolation and Egypt losing massive financial assistance from the United States. Encouraging, some Israeli commentators have pointed out

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to recent statements by the Muslim Brotherhood as signs that Egypt may put the peace treaty up for reconsideration through a referendum or a parliamentary vote. The peace treaty was sealed on March 26, 1979 in Washington, 16 months after former president Anwar Sadat's historic visit to Israel. Sadat, who signed the agreement along with the late Israeli premier Menachem Begin, would pay for it with his life 30 months later. It was nevertheless consistently upheld by his successor - Mubarak - for three decades, a fact that many Israelis express appreciation over amid the current turmoil. The first peace between Israel and an Arab neighbour, brokered by President Jimmy Carter, the treaty with Egypt was to serve as a basis for a comprehensive one across the Middle East. Even though peace with Jordan followed, an agreement with the Palestinians in the Gaza strip has remained elusive and negotiations have stalled time and again as the political players have evolved. Incidentally, as part of the treaty with Egypt, Israel withdrew its army and uprooted settlements in the Sinai Peninsula, which it had occupied in 1967. In return, it was granted recognition and normalisation of ties, guaranteed free passage through the Suez Canal and given US security guarantees. The Sinai became largely demilitarized, allowing for one infantry division of 22,000 troops in one zone, border units with 4,000 men in another, and United Nations forces and Egyptian civil police officials in a third. Egypt also worked to ensure that no hostile acts against Israel originated from its territory and has taken steps to prevent weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip. Israel now fears that a new Egyptian regime could turn a blind eye to the smuggling, or allow Islamist militants to train fighters and launch attacks from the Sinai. It is a precarious situation that Israel finds itself in. Israelis also fear that more unrest in other Arab neighbour states would create further instability and threats on its other, currently tranquil, borders.

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5.0

Reactions from African Nations

The response from African governments and the African Union has taken long and has been feeble resulting in the emboldening of Gadhafi in clinging on to power as he is viewed as the champion of the African pan Africanism movement. The AU has long viewed Libya as the only Country other than Ethiopia to have resisted colonial and later Neo-colonialism. Across Africa, authoritarian regimes are censoring the news and clamping down on any protests inspired by North Africa. Street protests this month in Cameroon and Gabon, aimed at regimes that have been in power for decades, were quickly crushed by police. In countries such as Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea, authorities have tried to muzzle any reporting about the North Africa people-power movements, according to monitoring by the Committee to Protect Journalists, an independent New York-based organization. The alleged bloodshed in Libya is particularly sensitive for many African regimes because they receive financial aid from Col. Gadhafi. The African Union, which was headed by Col. Gadhafi from 2009 to 2010, was slow to respond to Col. Gadhafi‟s violent crackdown on protesters, finally issuing only a brief statement of concern and a promise to “dispatch a mission” to the country. Zimbabwe, ruled by Mr. Mugabe since 1980, could be ripe for street protests. Its economy nearly collapsed after a wave of brutal violence by Mugabe loyalists against opposition supporters in 2008. Since then, unemployment and poverty have remained high, and frustrations are growing.

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Counter propaganda regarding Libya

Hugo Chavez, the flamboyant Venezuelan president has come out fighting on behalf of his long term ally Moammar Gaddafi by providing propaganda in support of the despotic leader

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by issuing press statements that have caused a stir in the media. The statement states that the international conspiracy to destroy Muammar Al-Gadhafi through carefully-calculated media frenzy constitutes the burden of each of the counter position on current events in Libya. Most leaders holding similar positions as Chavez refer directly to the wide, vicious, hypocritical gap between the US and Western powers‟ “democratic” avowal and the state terrorism associated with the activities of these so-called civilized nations towards the people of Africa, Middle East, the Caribbean and Latin America. Chavez and Latin American leaders are appalled and wonder how morally the British Foreign Secretary William Hague can feel so comfortable in the company of anti-Libyan organized crime groups that seek the devastation and destruction of Libya. Latin American leaders refer to the embarrassing position that the British Foreign Secretary-turned-coat anti-Libyan, antiGadhafi, anti-Africa, anti-Arab, anti-Hugo Chavez, anti-Venezuelan by tramping up malicious lies to the world that Libyan leader Muammar Al-Gadhafi had ran away and sought refuge in Venezuela. The malicious lie was doctored at a time British Prime Minister David Cameron was on an unannounced visit to Egypt, ostensibly to urge the military junta in Cairo to respect the so-called timetable for holding elections. The World has watched whilst innuendos and reckless dissipation by western foreign governments, corrupt media have subtly suggested that the Libyan authorities in Tripoli have used Libya‟s fighter jet planes against Libyan civilians. Whereas there is no evidence to convince or support this notion that a responsible Government of Muammar Al-Gadhafi has used fighter planes against the Libyan people, since the dawn of the era of the Great September 1st Al-Fateh Revolution in 1969, Sky news, BBC Fox News and general western news station have reported this notion without verification. As a matter of fact, contrary evidences shows that the Government of Muammar Al-Gadhafi does not need foreign mercenaries to protect Libyan life and property against the terrorist activities of organized
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crime groups and the corrupt media and as such the game of propaganda has continued unabated as the suffering masses in Libya and other Arab states hole up in fear for their lives. Evidently, the media disproportionately covers human rights violations in Libya beyond an attempted distraction from the actual situation on the North African nation. Double standards reporting has been shown when Israeli army has massacred Palestinian men, women and children in the occupied Arab lands and territories, or where there is little media coverage generated over the drown attacks directed by the United States against tribes men, women and children in Afghanistan. There have been some rumours that Zimbabwe could offer refuge to Col. Gadhafi if he flees into exile. But despite the hundreds of millions of dollars that Libya has provided to Mr Mugabe, the relationship between the two autocrats has become strained by financial disputes and by Libya‟s recent rapprochement with the West. It‟s unclear whether Mr. Mugabe is still friendly enough with Col. Gadhafi to provide him a haven in exile but in the meantime he doesn‟t want the Libya crisis to inspire any ideas among his people.

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Conclusion6

An unexpected spectre is haunting the streets throughout the capitals of North Africa and the Middle East. Although revolution has been quelled for many years, dollar devaluation has caused prices of basic goods to soar in emerging economies like these. Young people are unemployed and face little opportunities in autocratic societies. Tens of thousands of young, leaderless Arabs are rioting in the streets demanding an end to pro-Western leaders. Egypt‟s stock market (EGPT) has been shut down as reports are showing that the rioting will intensify, and many people and businesses are fleeing the country.

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http://www.eurasiareview.com/analysis/arab-world-turbulent-unrest-strategically-threatening-unitedstates-31012011/

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This hunger for change is sweeping across the Arab world and has already begun with the ousting of the president in Tunisia. Currently, older protesters are joining the youth in Egypt and will face tear gas, bullets, and beatings as the riots intensify. Many fear that the old proWestern despots will fall and new radical anti-Western governments will take control. In truth, the protests are happening throughout the Middle East but often they are being suppressed by iron-fisted governments. This is the shocking and unexpected news that is arising seemingly out of nowhere and is sure to affect our commodity investments. The Greater Middle East or the Greater Arab World extending from Tunisia to Egypt and reaching Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen and Sudan are today in a state of turbulent unrest. Tunisia has provided the incendiary spark which has set afire the Arab World long politically suppressed by authoritarian regimes and monarchical kingdoms. Geostrategically and geopolitically, the Greater Arab World is of crucial strategic significance for the United States as the region sits atop the world‟s greatest reserves of crude oil and natural gas. This extended region also abounds in choke-points through which must pass the supply route of energy requirements of Europe, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia. The Arab World was a theatre of Great Power rivalry during the Cold War between the United States and the former Soviet Union. Today China is using its „soft power‟ to establish substantive linkages in the Arab World and Russia has been able to make strategic forays in the region aimed at winning over United States traditional military partners.

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8.0

Bibliography and references

Dan Cohn-Sherbok and Dawoud Sudqi El Alami (2008) The Palestine-Israeli Conflict: A Beginner's Guide (Beginner's Guides) (Paperback) UK. David G. Dalin and John F. Rothmann (2008) Icon of Evil (Hardcover) UK Gregory Harms and Todd M. Ferry (2008) The Palestine-Israel Conflict: A Basic Introduction, Second Edition by (Paperback) Hasan Kayali (1997) Arabs and Young Turks: Ottomanism, Arabism and Islamism in the Ottoman Empire, 1908-1918 [Paperback]
http://www.ktbs.com/news/26765164/detail.html http://warandconflictjournal.com/tag/arab-unrest/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12480844 http://truth4freedom.wordpress.com/2011/02/24/rabbis-say-arab-unrest-signals-messiah-comingsoon-are-arab-leaders-being-punished-for-religious-persecution-prominent-rabbis-offerexplanations-for-mideast-uprisings/ http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/02/01/roundup.jordan.egypt/index.html?eref=rss_latest

Michael Doran (2002) Pan-Arabism before Nasser: Egyptian Power Politics and the Palestine Question (Studies in Middle Eastern History (Paperback) Rory Miller (2010) Britain, Palestine and Empire: The Mandate Years (Hardcover) UK

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