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Lab Report #2

Nice analysis and great report

Thanks for the effort

STAT 656 Ying Wang

25/25

Abstract

This study approaches the topic of global warming by investigating the

relationship between global temperature anomalies and CO2

emissions/solar radiation. We find it is the rise of CO2 emissions that is

linearly correlated with temperature anomalies in the period of 1961-1990,

but not the solar radiation. In addition, temperature anomalies behave

more extremely in the period 1981-1990, which indicates that human

activities might be the major cause because of industry booming, as other

natural forcing that change the composition of atmosphere do not have any

dramatic change in recent decades.

1. Introduction

Climate change has been a controversial issue for decades. The central piece of the

debate has been the cause of the climate change: whether it is attributed to the human

factors or the nature forcing. There is no clear answer to this question yet. For one thing,

this question is complicated enough by its own nature; for another, the findings of climate

change are confounded by the effects of human activity and nature forcing. To tackle this

perplexing problem, we begin by addressing a simpler question: is recent change in earth

temperature more related to solar activities or CO2 levels on earth?

We begin our analysis by briefly introducing the concept of climate change, including its

signs and contributing factors.

Climate change greatly draws people’s attention in recent decades. Global warming is the

strongest sign. Figure 1 from NASA GISS 1880-2009 Global Temperature shows that

global land-ocean temperature anomaly has been rising fast since the mid-20th century.

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

according to the definition by National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information

Service (NESDIS). A positive anomaly means the measured temperature is higher than

the reference value and a negative anomaly means the temperature drops below the

reference value. Therefore, it can be seen from figure 1 that temperature has been above

the reference value since around 1960s and climbing up further since the 1980s.

Nice reference

2.1.2 Factors

There are many contributing factors to the global warming, such as emissions of

greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2), solar output, volcanic eruptions and continental drift. Here

we focus our study on the effect of the first two factors: CO2 emissions and solar

radiation.

Albeit the sea would discharge more CO2 as the temperature rises, the increase in CO2

emissions is thought to be mainly due to the emission from the industrialization, because

CO2 discharge from the sea due to temperature rise was not so salient in the past, but only

emerging evident after the industry blossom. Probably need a reference here

Solar radiation is known to rise and fall periodically. See figure 2 created by Robert A.

Rohde / Global Warming Art below. Therefore, if the temperature anomaly is caused

solely by the solar radiation, it should also display a periodic pattern.

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

For these two factors, there exists some evidence supporting the idea that human

activity is the cause but not the solar radiation. Gabriele Hegerl (Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et

al., 2007) pointed out solar output warms the stratosphere; whereas greenhouse gases

cool the stratosphere. Measurements show that the stratosphere has been cooling since

1979 (Randel, William J.; Shine, Keith P.; Austin, John; Barnett, John; Claud, Chantal;

Gillett, Nathan P.; Keckhut, Philippe; Langematz, Ulrike et al., 2009).

warming art project, Greenhouse

gases are the main cause for the global

temperature rise. See figure 3 below.

Fuel burning is thought to generate the

most part of greenhouse gases each

year, and deforestation due to

economy development is also an

important cause.

activity is more related to the global

warming, rather than nature forcing

such as solar radiation.

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

2.2 Data

The data we use in this project includes the global yearly temperature anomalies (oC)

from 1901-2000 average, the yearly CO2 concentration (ppm) measured at Mauna Loa

Observatory, Hawaii, and the monthly sun radiation (kWh/m2/day) in Columbus, Ohio,

for the period of 1961-1990. Note that we would first convert the monthly sun radiation

data to yearly average to match up with other observations.

3. Statistical Analysis

3.1 Descriptive analysis

First, we conduct the descriptive analysis with the summary statistics of CO2

level, temperature anomaly, and sun radiation data. The table below includes

mean, sample standard deviation, minimum, maximum, and select quantiles of

each variable.

Summary Statistics

Mean Std. dev. Min 1st Quartile Median 3rd Quartile Max

Table 1 Summary statistics of CO2 level, temperature anomaly, and sun radiation.

3.2 Compare temperature anomaly, CO2 level, and sun radiation before and after 1980

Further, we want to examine the relationship between temperature rise and the two

factors, CO2 and solar output. Also, we would like to take into account of the time effect

for the global temperature anomaly.

Let us take a close look at the period that anomalies are greater than zero. The data of

1961-1990 seem to contain two clusters, one ranging from year 1961 to 1980, and

another ranging from year 1981 to 1990 (1980 is an arbitrary pick to segment the period

according to values of anomaly). We want to test the null hypothesis that anomalies after

1980 are not significantly different than before. The method used here is to draw the 95%

confidence region for the data of 1961-1980, and to measure how much data out of 1981-

1990 would fall into this confidence interval. If most of them fall within the confidence

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

interval, then we would not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis; otherwise,

we would reject the null hypothesis.

See results in figure 4 below. The magenta lines are the upper and lower bounds for the

confidence interval for temperature anomalies in 1961-1980. The blue line is a

segmentation marker at 1980. On its left are the anomalies in 1961-1979 ,while on its

right are the anomalies in 1981-1990. The red line is a linear regression line.

0.5

0.4

0.3

temperature anomaly

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

year

The regression line of a positive slope (t=4.641, p=7.41e-05) confirms that the overall

trend for the temperature anomaly is upward. The result that 60% of the data from 1981

to 1990 do not fall into the confidence interval suggests that temperature anomalies are

getting more extreme since the 1980s. Suppose human activity is the main cause for the

temperature anomaly, the possible reason is that global economy began to thrive since the

1960s and some 20 years were like a crash cushion. Hence significant global warming

problem does not show up until after those cushion years.

increasing each year in 1961-1990. Again, the magenta lines are the upper and lower

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

bounds for the confidence interval for CO2 emissions in 1961-1980. The blue line is a

segmentation marker at 1980. On its left are the CO2 emissions in 1961-1979 ,while on

its right are the CO2 emissions in 1981-1990. The red line is a linear regression line.

355

350

345

340

335

CO2

330

325

320

315

310

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

year

The regression line of a positive slope (t=45.10, p<2e-16) confirms that the overall trend

for the CO2 emissions is upward. Nevertheless, none of the data points in 1981-1990 fall

into the 95% confidence interval of the data of 1961-1980, which echos the observation

that the CO2 emissions level is almost monotonically increasing each year in 1961-1990.

This result is also in line with our findings for the temperature anomalies in the sense that

they are all backed by the prosperation of the economy and the industry in general.

Lastly, we apply linear regression and confidence interval to solar radiation. Results

are shown in figure 6 below. The magenta lines are the upper and lower bounds for the

confidence interval for solar radiation in 1961-1980. The blue line is a segmentation

marker at 1980. On its left are the solar radiation in 1961-1979 ,while on its right are the

solar radiation in 1981-1990. The red line is a linear regression line.

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

4.8

4.6

sun radiation

4.4

4.2

3.8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

year

Figure 6 Solar radiation in 1961-1990.

We can see the solar radiation data oscillates around the regression line, and there is no

clear trend of constant increase over the years. Also, the confidence interval includes

almost all the data. However, the regression line is of low reliability in that the p-value is

not small enough to reject the null hypothesis that the slope is zero (t=-0.482, p=0.634).

This also confirms the cyclical pattern of the solar radiation exhibited in figure 2.

To lend some support to the idea that 1981-1990 made things much worse than 1961-

1980, we construct the 95% confidence region of the samples of the year 1961-1980, to

assess how much data out of the samples from 1981-1990 fall outside. Note that each

sample is a 3-element vector, consisting of temperature anomalies, CO2 emissions level

and solar radiation. Therefore, the confidence region is an ellipsoid. As we can see from

figure 7 below, all observations after 1980 are outside of the 95% confidence region.

Although solar output is not changing abnormally, 1981-1990 is still largely inconsistent

with 1961-1980. Is it expected? even if there is NO change after 1980?

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

Interesting plot

Figure 7 A 95% confidence region of temperature anomalies, CO2 emissions and solar radiation .

Hence these findings suggest if we use a multivariate normal distribution estimated from

observations before 1981, it would only cast very dim light on the description of the

observations after 1980.

Knowing that both temperature anomalies and CO2 emission have been increasing but

solar radiation has not, the correlation matrix only consolidates the idea that CO2

emission is more correlated to temperature anomalies than solar radiation is. The

correlation matrix is shown below:

Table 2 Correlation matrix of temperature anomalies, CO2 level, and solar radiation.

whereas temperature anomalies and CO2 have a high correlation 0.71 and solar radiation

is not strongly correlated with temperature and CO2 (-0.02 and -0.08 respectively).

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

Then, we regress temperature anomalies against CO2 and solar radiation and draw the

following graphs.

0.5

0.4

0.3

temprature anomaly

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355

CO2

0.5

0.4

0.3

temprature anomaly

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7

yearly sun radiation

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

Table 3 Regression results of temperature anomalies against CO2 level, and solar radiation.

As expected, the coefficient of CO2 level is positive and significant, whereas the

coefficient on solar radiation is not statistically different from 0. Although not in the table,

the adjusted R-squared for this multiple regression is 0.46, i.e. CO2 level “explains” about

half of the variations we observe in temperature anomalies. These results clearly depict

that a linear relationship is more probable between temperature and CO2.

4. Conclusion

This study investigated the relationship between temperature anomalies and CO2

emissions/solar radiation. It is found that temperature anomalies and CO2 emissions have

been rising in the period of 1961-1990 and are highly correlated in a linear relationship.

However, solar radiation does not show any departure from its usual cyclic activities

during this period and does not affect temperature anomalies in the way that CO2 does.

than before, which indicates that human activities might be the major cause because 1)

industry boomed in developed countries after the WWII which led to expedited CO2

emissions in the 1980s and the developing countries also contributed to CO2 emission

after the 1970s as their economies take off; 2) Other natural causes that change the

composition of atmosphere do not have any dramatic change in recent decades and thus

could not contribute as much to CO2 emissions as burning of fuels and anthropogenic

deforestation.

In conclusion, in line with other findings, this study discloses a high correlation

between global warming and CO2 emissions. As most of CO2 is from fuel burning,

human activity is probably the major cause for climate change.

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

5. References

[1] “Global Surface Temperature Anomalies,” last modified August 12, 2010,

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html.

[2] “NASA GISS 1880-2009 Global Temperature,” last modified February 10, 2011,

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

[3] ”Solar Cycle Variations,” image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art,

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png

[4] ”Climate Change Attribution,” image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming

Art, http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Climate_Change_Attribution_png

[5] Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et al. (2007). "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change".

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to

the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.

[6] Randel, William J.; Shine, Keith P.; Austin, John; Barnett, John; Claud, Chantal;

Gillett, Nathan P.; Keckhut, Philippe; Langematz, Ulrike et al. (2009). "An update of

observed stratospheric temperature trends". Journal of Geophysical Research 114:

D02107.

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

#lab 2

library(plotrix)

attach(temperature)

attach(radiation)

year<-c(1961:1990)

a<-matrix(c(1,1))

for (i in 1:30)

{a[i]<-Year[12*(i-1)+1]}

avg_rad<-matrix(c(1,1))

for (i in 1:30)

{avg_rad[i]<-sum(SunRadiation[(12*(i-1)+1):(12*i)])/12}

plot(year,CO2,main="CO2 in 1961-1990")

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

All<-cbind(Temp,CO2,avg_rad)

m<-c(mean(Temp[1:20]),mean(CO2[1:20]),mean(avg_rad[1:20]))

#covariance matrix

cm<-cov(All[1:20,1:3])

##test if the last 10 years fall into the confidence region of first 20 years

F<-10.7186

n<-20

invcm<-solve(cm)

yes<-matrix(c(1,1))

for (i in 1:10)

{yes[i]<-1}

else

{yes[i]<-0}

sumyes<-sum(yes)/10

##confidence intervals

#temperature

T<-1.7291

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

for (i in 1:10)

{yes[i]<-1}

else

{yes[i]<-0}

sumTyes<-sum(yes)/10

#CO2

for (i in 1:10)

{yes[i]<-1}

else

{yes[i]<-0}

sumCyes<-sum(yes)/10

#sun radiation

for (i in 1:10)

{yes[i]<-1}

else

{yes[i]<-0}

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

sumSyes<-sum(yes)/10

reg1<-glm(Temp~CO2)

plot(Temp,CO2)

reg.line(glm(Temp~CO2),col="red")

reg2<-glm(Temp~avg_rad)

# Confidence region

library(rgl)

m.1 <-m[2:4]

ellipse3dCR<-ellipse3d(cm,centre=m.1,subdivide=3,t=sqrt(qchisq(0.95,3)), smooth=F,

which=1:3)

Radiation", ylim= c(323,355), alpha=0.3)

x <- after801[,1]

y <- after801[,2]

z <- after801[,3]

points3d(x,y,z,col='green',size=6,pch=20)

year=1961:1990

T=1.7291

len=T*sqrt(42.7746976)

figure(2)

plot(year,CO2,'-o')

hold on

Y= -2205.778 + 1.285*year

plot(year, Y,'r-','linewidth',2)

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Lab Report #2 STAT 656 Ying Wang

','Color',[1 .0 1])

hold on

','Color',[1 .0 1])

hold off

xlabel('year')

ylabel('CO2')

year=1961:1990

T=1.7291

len=T*sqrt(0.024241776)

figure(2)

plot(year,rad,'-o')

hold on

','Color',[1 .0 1])

hold on

Y= 7.242316 -0.001529*year

plot(year, Y,'r-','linewidth',2)

1])

hold off

xlabel('year')

ylabel('sun radiation')

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