AGRICULTURE IN A TIME OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Audio: Soft background music Video: View of the planet Earth from outer space zooming into the planet, showing various landscapes and scenery Climate change is a matter of fact for our world today. Video: Pictures of pollutants, greenhouse gases then shift to natural disasters such as heavy rains, floods and landslides The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions today is raising the earth¶s temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. Video: Show people walking fast and overcrowding The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere. Video: Show farmland and farmers working Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Video: Show heavy rains and floods in farmlands Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and longrun production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expe cted to be negative, threatening global food security. Video: Show hunger and poverty in developing countries Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries²2.5 billion people²relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world¶s poor live in rural areas. Audio: Shift to music with faster beat Video: Fade to a solid black background Video: Show climate change and global warming scenes Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off, precipitation and the interaction of these elements. Video: Show effects of climate change, farms not producing food, dying animals, famine

focused on the sun The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from region to region. and irrigation systems. Video: Show farmland pollutants. Video: Show African people planting maize Africa¶s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change. weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity. Video: Show deforestation and desertification. The Earth's average surface temperature has increased by 1 degree F in just over the last century. together with use of fossil fuels. The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. and now provides significant amounts of food. genetically modified organisms.These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Video: Show different weather conditions Despite technological advances. Video: Show sun shinning brightly. Consequently. The international aspect of trade and security in terms of food implies the need to also consider the effects of climate change on a global scale. such as improved varieties. However. which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light. primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate change. are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide. trading farm produce On the other hand. . and nitrous oxide. as well as soil properties and natural communities. and seventy per cent of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. and new or changed insect pest incidence. but also by altering the Earth's land cover. on a national level to major importing countries. methane. with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability. Video: Show poverty and famine. Video: Show trading of agricultural trade. agriculture itself is the major contributor to increasing methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in earth's atmosphere. thus contributing to radiative forcing. factories At the same time. men carrying sacks of rice. dry land in Africa and India In 2001. factories and insecticides Land use change such as deforestation and desertification. agronomists consider any assessment has to be individually consider each local area. machinery. as well as comfortable income to exporting ones. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maize²the country's staple crop²will be grown.the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produced itsThird Assessment Reportwhich concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit. agricultural trade has grown in recent years.

through the loss and gain of cultivated lands. such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice. soil erosion. as well as humans may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms. forest productivity was expected to decline. In Central and Eastern Europe. . climate change would reduce crop productivity. (2) irrigation systems. crop yields could increase up to 20%. In East and Southeast Asia. yields could decrease by up to 30%. Rice becomes sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35 degrees for more than one hour during flowering and consequently produces no grain. the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways: y productivity. In Northern Europe. production from agriculture and forestry was projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia. while in Central and South Asia. and over parts of eastern New Zealand. Video: Show farmlands in Australia and New Zealand. falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. then landmark (Sydney Opera House) By 2030. Video: Show farmers planting in rice paddies More detailed analysis of rice yields by the International Rice Research Institute forecast 20% reduction in yields over the region per degree centigrade of temperature rise. so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes. (3) landslide of mudslide. In drier areas of Latin America. Video: Flashes on the effect of climate change of agriculture ± (1) farmers planting. and hydraulic amenities. in terms of quantity and quality of crops y agricultural practices. land renunciation. with adverse consequences for food security. land speculation. insecticides and fertilizers y environmental effects. reduction of crop diversity y rural space. organisms may become more or less competitive. through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides. (5) various varieties of crops In the long run. the risk of hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries. Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in some places. Video: Show landmark (Philippines or India) then farmers and farm lands in Asia Climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural production and access to food. productivity of some important crops would decrease and livestock productivity decline. in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching). (4) desertification.Video: Show farmland first or landmark (the Christ of the Andes statue) then poverty and famine in Latin America In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance. Video: Show farmlands in Europe In Southern Europe. Taken together. the initial effect of climate change was projected to increase crop yields. y adaptation.

subdued audio background Video: Show farmland scenery. If change is gradual. especially those that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions. could harm agriculture in many countries. Video: Show natural disasters. Video: Show contrast of natural disasters (floods. storms. feed. higher intra. not so much by gradual trends in climate.Video: Farmers planting shift to scientists working in laboratories Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate change. farmers planting Climate change. invasive species. There is a serious potental for future i conflicts over habitable land and natural resources such as freshwater. Conclusion Audio: Shift to a slower. effects of climate change Some negative impacts are already visible in many parts of the world. the quicker . however. then droughts). people getting water from open wells Water scarcity and the timing of water availability will increasingly constrain production. then pictures of ³green industries´ The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions remains the best way to deter the effects of climate change on agriculture. The relationship between climate change and agriculture is a two-way street. The earlier and stronger the cuts in emissions. and increased rates of evapotranspiration in all types of ecosystems. animals dying Climate change is affecting the distribution of plants. additional warming will have increasingly negative impacts in all regions. because there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaption. fiber and fuel. Video: Show leaders of different nations meeting. agriculture contributes to climate change in several major ways and climate change in general adversely affects agriculture. pests and disease vectors and the geographic range and incidence of many human. there may be enough time for biota adjustment. which is taking place at a time of increasing demand for food. has the potential to irreversibly damage the natural resource base on which agriculture depends. etc Extreme climate events (floods and droughts) are increasing and expected to amplify in frequency and severity and there are likely to be significant consequences in all regions for food and forestry production and food insecurity. animal and plant diseases is likely to increase. Video: Show insects and other pest infestation. Video: Show drought and extremely dry land.and inter-seasonal variations. Climate change will require a new look at water storage to cope with the impacts of more and extreme precipitation. Video: Show researchers amidst African or Asian rural people Rapid climate change.

The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. agroforestry. rainfall. Video: Show people working to protect the environment Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature. the increased potential for droughts. Video: Good farming practices.concentrations will approach stabilization. and restoration of underutilized or degraded lands and rangelands and land use options such as carbon sequestration in agricultural soils. These include land use approaches such as lower rates of agricultural expansion into natural habitats. increased efforts to avoid deforestation. model farms However. Video: Show various landscape and scenery. floods and severe storms. agroecological systems. floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. since further changes in the climate are inevitable adaptation is also imperative. Actions directed at addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development share some important goals such as equitable access to resources and appropriate technologies. then view of planet Earth from outer space . afforestation. Video: Show farmer and family in a farmland. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. effective manure management and use of feed that increases livestock digestive efficiency. Video: Show forests and model farms Some ³win-win´ mitigation opportunities have already been identified. Video: Show modern farming methods Policy options related to regulations and investment opportunities include financial incentives to maintain and increase forest area through reduced deforestation and degradation and improved management and the development and utilization of renewable energy sources. reforestation. smiling happy Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. such as droughts. Emission reduction measures clearly are essential because they can have an impact due to inertia in the climate system. reduction and more efficient use of nitrogenous inputs. While food production may benefit from a warmer c limate.