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NiveshDaily

January 31, 2011

INDICES
Indices Previous (day) Close % chg FROM RESEARCH DESK
Sensex 18,395.97 -1.54%
Nifty 5,512.15 -1.64%  Results Preview
(As on 28th January, 2011) Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Andhra Bank, Escorts, KEC Intl., Canara Bank, Central Bank, Colgate Palmolive,
Dabur India and IDFC
WORLD INDICES  Result Updates
Indices Previous (day) Close % chg Panacea Biotec Ltd.
Dow Jones 11,823.70 -1.39%
Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Ltd. (TRIL)
Nasdaq 2,686.89 -2.48%
Sona Koyo Steering Systems (SONA)
S&P 500 1,276.34 -1.79%
FTSE 5,881.37 -1.40% Crompton Greaves (First Cut)
DAX 7,102.80 -0.74% Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.
CAC 4,002.32 -1.41% Swaraj Engines Ltd.
(As on 28th January, 2011)
Jyoti Structure Ltd. (JSL)
ASIAN INDICES Titan Industries
Indices Last Traded % chg
JK Paper
Nikkei 10,233.74 -1.22%
P&G
Hang Seng 23,327.16 -1.23%
Shanghai 2,769.22 +0.60% ATUL Ltd
(As on 31st January, 2011, 8.30 a.m. IST) Arvind Ltd
JMC Projects
Sadbhav Engineering
Jaiprakash Associates
Oberoi Realty

 Research Update included


Bank of Baroda Q3FY11 Result Update – Robust Performance..
Allahabad Bank Q3FY11 Result Update – Better than street expectation.
J. Kumar Infraprojects Ltd. Q3FY11 Result Update – Muted order growth concerns us..
Lupin Ltd. Q3FY11 Concall Update – In line with street expectations

 Technical Buzzer
 Indian and Global Markets - Outlook
 Things to Watch-out
 Result Today

Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Mobile: +91 77383 93371, 99205 94087
Tel: +91 22 66188826
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited


IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Results Preview

SUN PHARMACEUTICALS IND LTD(Rs Mn) Q3 FY 11E - Q2 FY 11 - Q3 FY 10 - Y.oY % Q.o.Q %


Bloomberg Estimates Actual Actual Change Change
Sales 15,548 13,701 10,208 52.32% 13.48%
Operating Profit 4,995 4,670 3,684 35.60% 6.97%
Net Profit 4,525 4,514 3,389 33.53% 0.25%
EPS (Rs.) 4.60 4.80 3.27 45.25% -0.92%

Andhra Bank(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 10257 9744 8068 27.14% 5.26%
Operating Profit 6474 5646 4818 34.37% 14.68%
Net Profit 3081 3030 2754 11.88% 1.70%
EPS (Rs.) 6.53 6.25 5.68 14.96% 4.48%
Escorts(Rs. In Mn.) Q1Y11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q1FY10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 7923 6676 6002 32.00% 18.68%
Operating Profit 829 505 542 53.09% 64.22%
Net Profit 465 268 234 98.72% 73.25%
EPS (Rs.) 2.62 2.52 -100.00% -100.00%

KEC Intl(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 12124 10001 9489 27.76% 21.22%
Operating Profit 1223 924 973 25.77% 32.45%
Net Profit 553 427 463 19.34% 29.40%
EPS (Rs.) 2.12 1.66 1.88 12.89% 27.56%
Canara Bank(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 25674 25029 22591 13.65% 2.58%
Operating Profit 15184 14158 14700 3.29% 7.25%
Net Profit 9952 10079 10526 -5.45% -1.26%
EPS (Rs.) 24.82 24.58 25.67 -3.31% 0.98%
Central Bank(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 15739 15922 10946 43.79% -1.15%
Operating Profit #N/A N/A 7779 5898 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Net Profit 3985 3794 3064 30.04% 5.04%
EPS (Rs.) 10.50 8.70 7.04 49.15% 20.69%
Colgate Palmolive(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 5665 5518 4906 15.48% 2.68%
Operating Profit 1301 1378 1286 1.19% -5.54%
Net Profit 1075 1003 1164 -7.67% 7.14%
EPS (Rs.) 7.88 7.38 8.56 -7.94% 6.78%
Dabur India(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 10919 9728 9262 17.89% 12.25%
Operating Profit 2089 2149 1819 14.88% -2.76%
Net Profit 1593 1604 1378 15.62% -0.66%
EPS (Rs.) 0.93 0.92 0.80 16.71% 0.87%
IDFC(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11E - Bloomberg Estimates Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q % Change
Net Sales 6923 6510 4675 48.08% 6.35%
EBIT 5214 4859 3788 37.65% 7.30%
Net Profit 3424 3384 2699 26.87% 1.19%
EPS (Rs.) 2.57 2.26 2.08 23.41% 13.58%

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 2


Result Update

Panacea Biotec Ltd – Q3 FY11 Results Update


CMP : Rs.184  In Q3 FY11, the company’s net sales grew 24.5% y-o-y & 12.5% q-o-q to
Rs 2.84 billion against the Bloomberg estimates of Rs 2.55 billion. Healthy
Reco : HOLD revenue growth was led by high growth in vaccines segment (contributed
73% to total sales), which grew 28% y-o-y & 26% q-o-q on account of supply
Target : Rs.200 of Easyfive to UNICEF. Further, the growth in net sales was supported by
formulation segment (Contributed 25% to total sales) which grew 13% y-o-y
on the back of export of pharmaceutical business. (See table given below)
Panacea Biotec Ltd
Segment Revenue(Rs Mn) Q3 FY11 Contribution Q3 FY10 Contribution y-o-y
STOCK INFO Vaccines 2,139 73% 1,668 72% 28%
BSE 531349 Formulations 725 25% 640 28% 13%
NSE PANACEABIO Unallocated 64 2% 5 0.2% 1313%
Bloomberg PNCB IN Total 2,928 100% 2,313 100% 27%
Reuters PNCA. BO Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Sector Pharmaceutical
Face Value (Rs) 1  The company’s EBITDA increased 104% y-o-y & 46% q-o-q to Rs 823 million in
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 67 Q3 FY 11 due to higher growth in top-line. Further, its EBITDA margin increased
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 12,328 ~1100 bps y-o-y to 29% y-o-y in Q3 FY11 due to substantial decline in material
52w H/L (Rs) 248/152 cost (linked with high margin vaccine business), employee cost &
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 145,580 manufacturing expenses. (See table given below).

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % Ratios Q3FY11 Q3FY10 Bps Q2FY11 Bps FY10


(as on 30th Sep. 2010) EBITDA margin 29.0% 17.7% 1,127 22.3% 665 16.7%
Net Margin 13.4% 2.6% 1,075 5.9% 750 0.5%
Promoters 74.41
Material cost/Net Sales 42.6% 66.7% (2,406) 51.7% (902) 55.7%
FIIs 5.78
Purchage of finished goods/ Net sa 2.9% 2.4% 44 11.4% (853) 10.0%
DIIs 0.57 Manufacturing Cost/Net sales 8.4% 10.4% (209) 11.4% (304) 10.0%
Public & Others 19.24 Employee Cost/ Net Sales 10.3% 10.7% (43) 12.2% (195) 11.5%
Source: BSE R&D Expenses/ Net Sales 6.8% 6.2% 58
Other Expenditure/ Net Slaes 10.3% 10.7% (43) 11.2% (96) 12.2%
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m Tax Rate 26.1% 60.9% (3,480) 44.0% (1,790) 90.6%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
PANACEA -2 -10 -9
BSE SENSEX -7 -8 15
Source: IndiaNivesh Research  The company’s adj net profit grew 533% y-o-y & 156% q-o-q to Rs 380 million
in Q3 FY11.
PANACEA v/s BSE SENSEX
140.00  Panacea’s Adj EPS was Rs 6.20 in Q3 FY 11 compared to Rs 0.90 in Q3 FY10.
120.00
100.00
80.00
 Board has approved the redemption of FCCBs of Rs 1.65 billion due on 14th
60.00 Feb 2011 convertible at 148% of outstanding amount. If redemption would
40.00
20.00 be from accrual earnings, this will reduce its D/E to 0.65x from current level
-
of 1x.
Investment Merits:
Panacea Sensex
During the period company launched following five new products:
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline
LENOMUST: Multiple myloma for blood cancer.
RENHOLD: Protein for dialysis patients.
EXEROZ: Anti-cholesterol.
FIBERFOS POWDER: laxative for constipation.
GUSH POWDER: laxative for constipation.
 The company has a contract of supply of vaccine Easyfive of worth $220 million
by Dec-2012. The supply had begun since Jan-2010.

Bhagwan Singh Chaudhary  The company has a good margin in vaccine segment. We expect that good
Research Associate product mix would further improve its margins.

Mobile: +91 77383 93427  The company’s formulation segment seems on the growth trajectory due to
Tel: +91 22 66188835 its 80% y-o-y growth in export formulation on the back of organ transplant
bhagwan.chaudhary@indianivesh.in products.

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 3


Result Update

Panacea Biotec Ltd (contd...)


Valuations
At CMP Rs 184/share, the stock is trading at PE 11.2x and 9.5x of FY11e and FY12e
EPS Bloomberg estimates, respectively. The company has reported good
performance in previous two quarters on the back of good traction in vaccine &
pharmaceutical export business. However, its domestic pharmaceutical business &
stability in improved EBITDA margin are still a concern. We maintain HOLD with
target price of Rs 200/share, valuing at 10x of FY12e street estimates.

Q3 FY11
Particulars (Rs Mn except EPS) Q3 FY11 Q3 FY10 Y-o-Y Q2 FY11 Q-o-Q FY 10

Net Sales 2,841 2,281 24.5% 2,526 12.5% 9,002


Other Operating Income 88 33 163.6% 37 138.4% 254
Total Income 2,928 2,314 26.5% 2,562 14.3% 9,256
(increase)/Decrease in closing stock (56) (298) -81.2% (255) -78.0% (501)
Consumption of raw material 1,211 1,521 -20.4% 1,305 -7.2% 5,016
Purchasing of Traded Goods 81 55 47.0% 68 -71.8% 206
Manufacturing cost 237 238 -0.4% 288 -23.2% 898
R&D Expenses 192 141 36.2%
Empoyee Cost 292 244 19.6% 309 2.8% 1,036
Other Expenditure 147 8 1785.9% 284 -92.6% 1,096
Total Expenditure 2,105 1,911 10.2% 1,999 5.3% 7,750
EBITDA 823 404 103.8% 564 46.0% 1,506
Depreciation & Ammortization 183 164 11.2% 185 -1.0% 676
EBIT 640 239 167.4% 379 68.8% 830
Interest 126 86 46.5% 114 10.3% 385
Pre-tax Profit 515 154 235.0% 265 94.0% 446
Tax 135 94 43.7% 117 15.2% 404
Net Profit (Recurring) 380 60 533.3% 148 156.1% 42
Other Income 32 11 181.3% 41 -249.3% 47
Forex Gain( loss) 14 2 NM (21) NM 635
Net Profit (Reported) 426 73 479% 169 152.5% 724
Adj EPS 6.20 0.90 590% 2.52 146.0% 26.06
O/ Share ( In Million) 61 67 -8% 61 0.0% 67
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 4


Result Update

Sushil Pathak Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Ltd. (TRIL)-In-line with market
Research Analyst expectation
Mobile: +91 77383 93374
Tel: +91 22 66188833 Key Highlights
sushil.pathak@indianivesh.in  During the quarter ended Q3FY11, Net sales remained flattish (-5.24% YoY) to
Rs. 1269.7 Mn from Rs. 1339.9 Mn Q3FY10 and 11% up QoQ. Its production
went up by 35% to 4024 MVA but sales went down to 2711 MVA, de-growth of -
4.7%. Realisation remains stable with marginal down of 2% to Rs .43 Mn per
MVA from Rs .44 Mn YoY.
 Operating margin eroded by 334 bps: Decrease in raw material costs yoy was
offset by increase in the employees cost in Q3 by way of a “one off” expenditure
relating to payment of arrears and incentives in Q3, also increased other
expenditure owing to the developmental expenses relating to the 1150 KVA
transformer debited under the respective heads as revenue expenses. As a result
EBITDA declined by 30% and margin contracted by 334 bps (-574 bps QoQ).

EBITDA and Margins Sales Breakup – Q3FY11 Sales Breakup – Q3FY10


400 25
350
20
300
250 Industrial,
Rs in Mn

15
200 65%
%

Utilities
150 10 (SEBs, PGCIL
and NTPC),
100
5 61%
50 Utilities
Industrial, (SEBs, PGCIL
0 0 39% and NTPC),
Q1FY08
Q2FY08
Q3FY08
Q4FY08
Q1FY09
Q2FY09
Q3FY09
Q4FY09
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11

35%

EBIDT EBITDAM (%)

Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

TRIL signed MOU with a leading global manufacturer of 765kV class transformers
for the purpose of manufacturing and supplying transformers to PGCIL.
Order Book
The Company has an order book position of Rs. 4330 Mn (10,732 MVA) as on 1st Jan,
2011.The break-up of current order book position is as under.

Export,
12%

Furnace
Transformers,
16%

Power
Distribution Transformers,
Transformers, 69%
3%

Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

Outlook & Valuation


The muted growth was conformation that pickup in power order is mute as well the
execution. At CMP of Rs 293.85 the stock is trading at P/E of 10.5x FY11E and 6.3x
FY12E estimated earnings. We recommend “BUY” with the price target of Rs 376 on
FY12E earnings (P/E 8x EPS-Rs 47 FY12E).

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 5


Result Update

Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Ltd. (contd...)


Financials
Particulars (Rs in Mn) Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY (%) Q2FY11 QoQ (%) 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY (%)
Gross Sales 1,269.7 1,339.9 -5.24 1,140.5 11.33 3,238.8 3,092.0 4.75
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Net Sales 1,269.7 1,339.9 -5.24 1140.5 11.33 3,238.8 3,092.0 4.75
Other Operating Income 0 0 0 0 0
Total Incom e 1269.7 1339.9 -5.24 1140.5 11.33 3238.8 3092.00 4.75

Stock Adjustment (85.8) (10.2) (195.20) (439.6) (417.0)


Raw Material Consumed 1041.30 1022.8 1021.00 2804.6 2563.4
Material Consumed 955.5 1012.6 -5.64 825.80 15.71 2365.0 2146.4 10.18
Purchase of Finished Goods 0.00 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0! 7.10 0.00
Employee Expenses 37.9 24.5 54.69 45.00 -15.78 110.8 87.5 26.63
Other Expenses 157.7 132.9 18.66 97.7 61.41 344.3 393.0 -12.39
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1151.1 1170 -1.62 968.5 18.85 2827.2 2626.9 7.62
PBIDT 118.60 169.9 -30.19 172 -31.05 411.60 465.1 -11.50
PBITDAM (%) 9.34 12.68 -333.93 15.08 -574.03 12.71 15.04 -233.36
Depreciation 15.2 13.1 16.03 14.1 7.80 43.5 30.6 42.16
PBIT 103.4 156.8 -34.06 157.9 -34.52 368.1 434.5 -15.28
Interest 9.9 7.2 37.50 4.9 102.04 22.2 28.3 -21.55
Other Income 8.5 9.6 -11.46 0.00 34.8 26.7 30.34
PBT 102 159.2 -35.93 153 -33.33 380.7 432.9 -12.06
Tax 34.1 47.5 -28.21 50.9 -33.01 125.7 137.3 -8.45
Total tax 34.1 47.5 50.9 125.7 137.3
Tax rate (%) 33.43 29.84 33.27 33.02 31.72
Reported Profit After Tax 67.90 111.70 -39.21 102.10 -33.50 255.00 295.60 -13.73
PATM (%) 5.35 8.34 -298.87 8.95 -40.26 7.87 9.56 -168.69

Cost Analysis (% of Net Sales) Q3FY11 Q3FY10 Bps (YoY) Q2FY11 Bps (QoQ) 9MFY11 9MFY10 Bps (YoY)
Raw Material Consumed 75.25 75.57 -31.88 72.41 284.72 73.02 69.42 360.30
Purchase of Finished Goods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 21.92
Employee Expenses 2.98 1.83 115.65 3.95 -96.07 3.42 2.83 59.11
Other Expenses 12.42 9.92 250.16 8.57 385.38 10.63 12.71 -207.97
Tax Rate 33.43 29.84 33.27 33.02 31.72
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 6


Result Update

Sushil Pathak Sona Koyo Steering Systems (SONA)-Better than street


Research Analyst estimates
Mobile: +91 77383 93374
Tel: +91 22 66188833 Result Highlights
sushil.pathak@indianivesh.in  Domestic growth boost revenue: Sona Koyo Steering Systems Q3FY11 results
were above street expectation; during the quarter under review domestic
passenger vehicle (PV) industry had impressive growth in production volumes
which grew 22.9% YoY to 0.74mn vehicles. SONA’s largest customer Maruti
production volumes were up 24.9%. As a result, domestic sales for SONA were
higher by 23.1% YoY to Rs 2.63 bn. Exports also grew by 30.5% to Rs 93 mn.
 Margins in line and sustained at current levels: Increase in raw material costs
was offset partially by lower overheads sequentially. As a result margin
contraction was arrested to 36 bps QoQ. SONA reported margins of 10.1%
which was inline with market expectation.
 Income from sale of investment: During the quarter the company hived of its
stake in AAM Sona Axle in favor of JV partner American Axles, USA. The stake
was acquired in Oct’08 at a cost of Rs 28 mn. The company reported an
exceptional gain of Rs 39 mn from this stake sale. Consequently reported
profit was higher by 82.3% YoY at Rs 126 mn.
VALUATIONS
The stock is currently trading at 9.7x its FY12E earnings on Bloomberg estimates.
We don’t have active coverage on stock, however company is conducting post result
conference call on January 31 FY11 after that we will analysis its business model.

Financials
(Rs in Mn) 3QFY11 3QFY10 YoY 2QFY11 QoQ 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY
Net Sales 2,728.0 2,212.1 23.32% 2,506.9 8.82% 7,399.5 6,086.7 21.57%
Domestic 2,634.8 2,140.7 23.08% 2,427.2 8.55% 7,099.2 5,874.5 20.85%
Export 93.2 71.4 30.53% 79.7 16.94% 300.3 212.2 41.52%
Other Operating Income 8.6 5.6 53.57% 6.0 43.33% 22.5 17.5 28.57%
Total Income from Operations 2736.6 2217.7 23.40% 2512.9 8.90% 7422.0 6104.2 21.59%
Expenditure :
Decrease/(Increase) in stock in trade and work in progress 3.7 0.4 -46.6 -42.2 (32.0)
Consumption of Raw Materials and Components 2001.3 1638.0 22.18% 1848.8 8.25% 5419.4 4651.8 16.50%
Raw Material 2005.0 1638.4 22.38% 1802.2 11.25% 5377.2 4619.8 16.39%
% of Net Sales 73.50 74.07 ‐56.8 bps 71.89 160.7 bps 72.67 75.90 ‐323.0 bps
Purchase of Traded Goods 18.3 11.3 61.95% 20.5 ‐10.73% 57.3 22.6 153.54%
% of Net Sales 0.67 0.51 16.0 bps 0.82 ‐14.7 bps 0.77 0.37 40.3 bps
Employees Cost 194.1 144.8 34.05% 175.0 10.91% 528.1 400.1 31.99%
% of Net Sales 7.12 6.55 56.9 bps 6.98 13.4 bps 7.14 6.57 56.4 bps
Other Expenditure 233.8 174.2 34.21% 244.1 ‐4.22% 675.7 453.1 49.13%
% of Net Sales 8.57 7.87 69.6 bps 9.74 ‐116.7 bps 9.13 7.44 168.8 bps
Total Expenditure 2451.2 1968.7 24.51% 2241.8 9.34% 6638.3 5495.6 20.79%
Profit from Operations prior Other Income and Interest 285.4 249.0 14.62% 271.1 5.27% 783.7 608.6 28.77%
Core Operating Profit Margin (%) 10.43 11.23 -79.88 bps 10.79 -35.93 bps 10.56 9.97 58.90 bps
Depreciation 73.2 67.7 8.12% 70.2 4.27% 211.5 198.6 6.50%
Profit before Interest 212.2 181.3 17.04% 200.9 5.62% 572.2 410.0 39.56%
Interest 82.7 79.7 3.76% 85.5 ‐3.27% 249.3 255.1 ‐2.27%
Other Income 3.9 4.8 ‐18.75% 4.1 ‐4.88% 10.8 19.7 ‐45.18%
Net Profit before Tax from Ordinary Activities 133.4 106.4 25.38% 119.5 11.63% 333.7 174.6 91.12%
Exceptional Iteam (Net) -38.6 0 6.0 -32.6 0
Profit Before Tax 172.0 106.4 61.65% 113.5 51.54% 366.3 174.6 109.79%
Tax Expense
For current year 46.4 37.5 38.5 110.2 59.9
For earlier year
Total Tax Expense 46.4 37.5 23.73% 38.5 20.52% 110.2 59.9 83.97%
% of Tax 26.98 35.24 ‐826.8 bps 33.92 ‐694.4 bps 30.08 34.31 ‐422.2 bps
Net Profit after Tax for the period 125.6 68.9 82.29% 75.0 67.47% 256.1 114.7 123.28%
NPM (%) 4.60 3.11 148.94 bps 2.99 161.24 bps 3.46 1.88 157.66 bps

Paid up equity share capaital (FV Re 1) 198.7 198.7 198.7 198.7 198.7
EPS 0.63 0.35 82.29% 0.38 67.47% 1.29 0.58 123.28%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 7


Result Update

Sushil Pathak Crompton Greaves (First Cut)


Research Analyst
Mobile: +91 77383 93374 Standalone result
Tel: +91 22 66188833 Result Highlights
sushil.pathak@indianivesh.in  Net sales grew by 14% yoy to Rs.13.98 bn led by strong growth in consumer
product revenues of 30% yoy to Rs. 4.75 bn as demand continue for the
consumer product from the last years, sequentially also shown some strength
and up by 2.5%.
 The Company’s Power System Business remained muted as power sector
performance was subdued in IIP data. During the quarter company’s Industrial
System division revenues grew at a robust pace of 20% yoy to Rs 3496.5 Mn,
which show some IIP is not giving clear picture of the company Industrial
Business. We expect that spending from PGCIL accelerate in Q4FY11 and up-
tick in this would provide thrust to the company’s performance.
 EBIT margins for the segments was mixed and shown uneven move – power
(up 81.5bps to 19.8% YoY, up 228 bps QoQ), Industrial (-510 bps to 18.2% YoY,
-224 bps QoQ) and consumer division marginal down (-34 bps to 14% YoY, -
45 bps QoQ), Others (up 2871 bps YoY, 904 bps QoQ). The overall margin was
marginally down by 33 bps to 16.3% from 16.6% last year, seems insulated
from higher copper price by price escalation clause and better product mix.
Excise duty was increased during the quarter which has also impacted the
revenue.
 On back of high competition and offtake concerns in the domestic market for
core power sector business the company was expected to post high single
digit growth in bottomline but by clocking a bottomline growth of 30% to Rs
1.76 bn for the quarter it has exceeded the market expectations. But the
impressive double digit growth in bottomline coming on account of lower tax
incidence for the quarter as well as higher share of profit from associates.
Standalone Standalone
Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY Q2FY11 QoQ 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY
Gross Sales 14762.0 12751.1 16% 15291.3 -3% 44208.0 38232.0 16%
Less: Excise duty 776.1 513.5 843.5 2345.2 1574.2
Excise % of Gross Sales 5.3% 4.0% 5.5% 5.3% 4.1%
Net Sales 13985.9 12237.6 14% 14447.8 -3% 41862.8 36657.8 14%
Expenditure
Inc/dec in stock in trade 181.0 (617.6) (103.6) (989.1) (1128.6)
Cost of material 6758.4 6377.9 7581.8 21466.9 18749.9
RM Consumed 6939.4 5760.3 20% 7478.2 -7% 20477.8 17621.3 16%
% of Net Sales 49.6 47.1 254.7 51.8 ‐214.3 48.9 48.1 84.7
Employee Cost 773.3 622.9 24% 741.2 4% 2240.6 1908.1 17%
% of Net Sales 5.5 5.1 43.9 5.1 39.9 5.4 5.2 14.7
Purchase of traded goods 2479.1 2076.5 19% 2379.7 4% 7903.3 6590.3 20%
% of Net Sales 17.7 17.0 75.8 16.5 125.5 18.9 18.0 90.1
Other Expenditure 1513.4 1741.9 -13% 1539.6 -2% 4557.6 4667.6 -2%
% of Net Sales 10.8 14.2 ‐341.3 10.7 16.5 10.9 12.7 ‐184.6
Total Expenditure 11705.2 10201.6 15% 12138.7 -4% 35179.3 30787.3 14%
Operating Profit 2280.7 2036.0 12% 2309.1 -1% 6683.5 5870.5 14%
Operating Margin 16.3% 16.6% -33bps 16.0% 32bps 16.0% 16.0% -5bps
Deprici ati on 211.1 132.1 195.1 8% 578.6 389.7
PBIT 2069.6 1903.9 9% 2114.0 -2% 6104.9 5480.8 11%
Interest 23.3 11.4 -6.9 10.0 5.8
Other Income 221.3 167.1 32% 192.9 15% 562.0 350.8 60%
PBT after Other Income 2267.6 2059.6 10% 2313.8 -2% 6656.9 5825.8 14%
Tax rate 22.4% 34.2% ‐1186.8 31.5% ‐913bps 28.4% 33.7% ‐530.85
Current Tax 592.3 650.00 674.40 -12% 1935.0 1806.0
Deferred tax -84.9 55.30 54.50 -256% (45.0) 157.3
Fringe benefit tax 0.00
Total Tax 507.4 705.3 728.9 -30% 1890.0 1963.3
Net Profit 1760.2 1354.3 30% 1584.9 11% 4766.9 3862.5 23%
NPM (%) 12.59 11.07 152bps 10.97 16157bps 11.39 10.54 85bps
APAT 1538.9 1187.2 30% 1392.0 -0.04 4204.9 3511.7 20%
APAT Margin (%) 11.00 9.70 130bps 9.63 114.54 10.04 9.58 46bps
Paid-up equity share capi tal (FV-2) 1283.00 733.10 1283.00 128.30 1283.00 733.10
Basi c EPS & Diluted EPS 2.74 2.11 30% 2.47 0.00 7.43 6.02 23%

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 8


Result Update

Crompton Greaves (First Cut) (contd...)

Segment Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY(%) Q2FY11 Qoq 9MFY11 9MFY11 YoY(%)


Segment Revenue (net of excise duty)
Power System 5807.3 5689.9 2.1% 6440.3 -9.8% 17348.5 16817.1 3.2%
Consumer product 4751.3 3647.3 30% 4634.3 2.5% 14703.6 11515.8 28%
Industrial System 3496.5 2911.1 20% 3442.3 1.6% 10050.6 8376.6 20%
Others 30.1 56.8 -47% 59.7 -49.6% 144.1 194.6 -26%
Total 14085.2 12305.1 14% 14576.60 -3% 42246.8 36904.1 14%
less: Inter-segment revenue 99.3 67.5 12.88 384.0 246.3
Net Sales / Income from operations 13985.9 12237.6 14% 14563.72 -4% 41862.8 36657.8 14%
Segment Result (PBT)
Power System 1149.1 1079.5 6% 1127.6 1.9% 3122.6 3009.8 3.7%
Consumer product 665.9 523.7 27% 670.7 -0.7% 2139.5 1627.6 31%
Industrial System 637.2 679 -6% 704.6 -9.6% 1983.8 1819.8 9%
Others 6.1 (4.80) -227% 6.7 -9.0% 22.3 7.00 219%
Total 2458.30 2277.40 8% 2509.60 -2% 7268.20 6464.20 12%
Less:
Interest (net) 23.2 11.4 -6.9 -436.2% 10.0 5.8
Other un-allocable expenditure net of un-allocable in 167.4 206.4 202.7 -17.4% 601.3 632.6
Profit before Tax 2267.70 2059.60 10% 2313.80 -2% 6656.90 5825.80 14%

PBT Margin (%)


Power System 19.8% 19.0% 81.5 17.5% 227.9 18.0% 17.9% 10.2
Consumer product 14.0% 14.4% -34.3 14.5% -45.7 14.6% 14.1% 41.7
Industrial System 18.2% 23.3% -510.1 20.5% -224.5 19.7% 21.7% -198.7
Others 20.3% -8.5% 2871.6 11.2% 904.3 15.5% 3.6% 1187.8

Contribution to Topline
Power System 41.2% 46.2% -501.0 44.2% -295.3 41.1% 45.6% -450.5
Consumer product 33.7% 29.6% 409.2 31.8% 194.0 34.8% 31.2% 359.9
Industrial System 24.8% 23.7% 116.6 23.6% 120.9 23.8% 22.7% 109.2
Others 0.2% 0.5% -24.8 0.4% -19.6 0.3% 0.5% -18.6
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

Consolidated result
 On a consolidated basis the company has reported revenue as per the market
expectation of 9%. The company has reported revenue growth of 7% remained
flat sequentially mainly on account of depressed performance in the overseas
business as a result of ongoing subdued demand scenario in Euro zone. Upside
in revenue for the quarter was driven by consumer products and industrial
systems business of the company with power systems subdued performance.
Consolidated segment revenue of power business was lower by 1% to Rs.
15.45 bn. The de-growth in power sector revenue was largely on account of
subdued performance of overseas power operations especially that of Ganz
and Pauwells. On deducting the consolidated figures with standalone figures
the overseas power sector revenue was down by 3% to Rs. 9.65 bn. On the
other hand the segment revenue of consumer durable was up by 30% to Rs.
4.75 bn. Similarly the segment revenue of consolidated industrial systems
was up by 23% to Rs. 3.81 bn YoY.
 The consolidated segment profit of power business was flat at Rs. 2.01 bn
despite marginally lower sales. This was largely on account of marginal 10
bps rise in segment margin to 13%. In spite of strong surge in revenue the
segment profits of consumer durables and industrial systems was strained by
escalation in commodity prices. The company given its market leadership in
consumer durables were largely able to pass on the incremental commodity
cost to customers but it is not the same case and was forced to absorb in case
of industrial systems. Thus the segment margin of consumer durable was
lower by 34 bps to 14% that of industrial systems contracted by 245 bps to
18.2%. Thus despite strong revenue growth the segment profit of consolidated
consumer durable was higher by 27% to Rs. 665.9 Mn and that of consolidated
industrial systems was up by just 8% to Rs. 693.7 Mn.
 To an interim dividend of Rs. 0.80 per equity share of Rs. 2 face value for the
financial year 2010-11.

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 9


Result Update

Crompton Greaves (First Cut) (contd...)


Consolidated Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY Q2FY11 QoQ 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY
Gross Sales 24748.9 22982.0 7.7% 24825.70 0% 73325.4 67915.1 8.0%
Less: Excise duty 779.0 517.8 846.90 2354.6 1585.3
Excise % of Gross Sales 3.1% 2.3% 3.4% 3.2% 2.3%
Net Sales 23969.9 22464.2 6.7% 23978.80 0% 70970.8 66329.8 7.0%
Expenditure
Inc/dec in stock in trade 423.0 27.3 (636.2) (1103.9) (800.0)
Cost of material 11983.5 11089.7 12839.0 36792.2 34251.2
RM Consumed 12406.5 11117.0 11.6% 12202.8 2% 35688.3 33451.2 6.7%
% of Net Sales 51.8 49.5 50.9 50.3 50.4
Employee Cost 3005.1 2816.9 6.7% 3093.1 -3% 9092.3 8510.5 6.8%
% of Net Sales 12.5 12.5 12.9 12.8 12.8
Purchase of traded goods 2489.8 2065.9 20.5% 2434.0 2% 8028.2 6690.3 20.0%
% of Net Sales 10.4 9.2 10.2 11.3 10.1
Other Expenditure 2667.0 3264.9 -18.3% 2916.7 -9% 8455.0 8934.9 -5.4%
% of Net Sales 11.1 14.5 12.2 11.9 13.5
Total Expenditure 20568.40 19264.70 6.8% 20646.60 0% 61263.8 57586.9 6.4%
Operating Profit 3401.5 3199.5 6.3% 3332.2 2% 9707.0 8742.9 11.0%
Operating Margin 14.2% 14.2% 13.9% 29bps 13.7% 13.2%
Depriciation 466.7 394.8 18.2% 457.8 1339.6 1153.9 16.1%
PBIT 2934.8 2804.7 4.6% 2874.4 2% 8367.40 7589.00 10.3%
Interest 38.5 49.20 -21.7% 48.50 137.1 145.8 -6.0%
Other Income 120.3 215.3 -44.1% 227.8 -47% 531.1 607.4 -12.6%
PBT after Other Income 3016.6 2970.8 1.5% 3053.7 -1% 8761.4 8050.6 8.8%
Tax rate 23.3% 32.6% 30.1% 27.6% 31.2%
Current Tax 788.2 814.7 821.40 2386.1 2239.4
Deferred tax (84.8) 153.6 98.10 30.6 272.4
Fringe benefit tax 0.00
Total Tax 703.4 968.3 919.5 2416.7 2511.8
Tax rate 23.3% 32.6% 30.1% 27.6% 31.2%
Net Profit 2313.2 2002.5 15.5% 2134.20 8% 6344.7 5538.8 14.6%
NPM (%) 9.65 8.91 74bps 8.90 75bps 8.94 8.35 59bps
Minority Interest (0.6) (11.2) 0.00 (1.6) (23.9)
Share of profit/(loss) in association 15.4 5.1 1.70 29.3 18.7
Net Profit from ordinary activity afer minority in. 2328.0 1996.4 16.6% 2135.9 9% 6372.4 5533.6 15.2%
Margin (%) 9.71 8.89 8.91 80bps 8.98 8.34
APAT 2207.7 1781.1 24.0% 1908.1 16% 5841.30 4926.20 18.6%
APAT Margin (%) 9.21 7.93 128bps 7.96 125bps 8.23 7.43 80bps
Paid-up equity share capital (FV-10) 1283.00 1283.00 1283.00 1283.00 1283.00
Basic EPS & Diluted EPS 3.63 3.11 3.33 9% 9.93 8.63

Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Quarter Ended Quarter Ended
Segment Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY 30/06/2010 QoQ 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY
Segment Revenue (net of excise duty)
Power System 15451.8 15595.7 -0.9% 15778.1 -2% 45794.0 45206.2 1.3%
Consumer product 4751.3 3647.3 30.3% 4634.3 3% 14703.6 11515.8 27.7%
Industrial System 3809.1 3100.4 22.9% 3606.1 6% 10625.4 9110.9 16.6%
Others 57.0 188.3 -69.7% 89.1 -36% 231.8 743.2 -68.8%
Total 24069.2 22531.7 6.8% 24107.60 0% 71354.8 66576.1 7.2%
less: Inter-segment revenue 99.3 67.5 128.8 384.0 246.3
Net Sales / Income from operations 23969.9 22464.2 6.7% 23978.80 0% 70970.8 66329.8 7.0%
Segment Result (PBT)
Power System 2007.6 2012.2 -0.2% 1934.6 4% 5498.0 5198.6 5.8%
Consumer product 665.9 523.7 27.2% 670.7 -1% 2139.5 1627.6 31.5%
Industrial System 693.7 640.6 8.3% 701.6 -1% 1993.1 1871.2 6.5%
Others -144.7 49.9 -390.0% 10 -1547% (118.80) 131.6 -190.3%
Total 3222.5 3226.4 -0.1% 3316.9 -3% 9511.8 8829.0 7.7%
Less:
Interest (net) 38.5 49.2 48.5 137.1 145.8
Other un-allocable expenditure net of un-allocable i n 167.4 206.4 214.7 613.3 632.6
Profit before Tax 3016.6 2970.8 1.5% 3053.7 -1% 8761.4 8050.6 8.8%
PBIT margin
(Segment Assets - Segment Liabilities)
Power System 13.0 12.9 9.0 12.3 73.1 12.0 11.5 50.6
Consumer product 14.0 14.4 -34.3 14.5 -45.7 14.6 14.1 41.7
Industrial System 18.2 20.7 -245.0 19.5 -124.4 18.8 20.5 -178.0
Others -253.9 26.5 -28036.0 11.2 -26508.3 -51.3 17.7 -6895.8
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

Valuation: At CMP of Rs.262 CGL is trading at 16x FY12E consolidated Bloomberg earnings. The Company is conducting a post result
conference call on January 32, 2011 after that we will come out with detail analysis of the stock and its business outlook.

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 10


Result Update

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. – In-line with the estimates


CMP : Rs.1,233  Net revenues for the quarter stood at Rs 92,767 mn, a YoY jump of 27% and
4% sequentially in line with our estimates. Revenues were driven by 28% jump
Reco : BUY in volumes, but realization remained flattish with marginally down by 1.3%
YoY. Sequentially, 5.4% higher volume, the company witnessed -1.5% down
Target : Rs.1,443 in realizations. Realizations dropped over Q3FY10 primarily due to lower
realization in export market and lower contribution from European market
who commands better realisation.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.  MSIL’s EBIDTA for the quarter was sharply impacted by the increase in higher
commodity prices, seasonally higher discounts and adverse forex movement.
STOCK INFO
Margins were also impacted due to royalty payment which was Rs.4.60 bn,
BSE 532500
which was at about 5.5% of sales. MSIL incurred a one-time cost of Rs. 510
NSE MARUTI
Bloomberg MSIL IN
mn on employee payment. Overall, its employee costs soared by 75.5% to
Reuters MRTI.BO Rs.2324.5 mn from Rs. 1324.5 mn. MSIL reported EBITDA of Rs 9,017.9 mn as
Sector Cars & Utility Vehicles against Q2FY11 EBITDA of Rs 9603.2 mn. Raw material cost increased by 353.4
Face Value (Rs) 5 bps to 76.6% of net sales over 73.1% Q3FY10. Accordingly the company
Equity Capital (Rs Mn) 1,445 reported EBITDA margin of 9.5% for the quarter as against 15.1% and 10.5%
Mkt Cap (Rs Mn) 356,380 margins reported during 3QFY10 and 2QFY11 respectively.
52w H/L (Rs) 1,599.90 / 1,171  Other income for the quarter saw a steep 40% rise over 3QFY10 other income
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 71849.4 of Rs 1,282.7 mn from Rs 912 mn last year same quarter. Reported net profit
for the quarter was in-line with our estimation but impacted due to one time
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % employee wage settlement. Net profit for the quarter stood at Rs 5651.7 mn
(as on 31st Dec. 2010) as against 3QFY10 net profit of Rs 6875.3 mn, down by 18% and 2QFY11 net
Promoter 54.21 profit Rs 5982.4 mn (down of 5.5%).
FII 21.00
DII 17.00 Key concall takeaways
Others 7.79  The company had ramped up its production by about 10% in October last
Source: BSE
year to over 1.1-lakh units a month and will add another 250,000 units in
H2FY12 with commissioning of its new plant at Manesar, taking its total annual
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m
output to 14-lakh units in 2011-12.
Maruti -12.9 -20.5 -11.3
BSE Sensex -9.2 -8.2 -99.3
 There has been a new trend in the buying behavior of customers, in the last
Source: IndiaNivesh Research
four years, the first time buyer percentage has come down from 52% to 45%
of the total sales, but it is the repeat customers who are increasingly adding
Maruti Suzuki v/s BSE SENSEX to the sales numbers for the company.
140.00  The company has taken hedge for Euro that constitutes 30% of exports, the
130.00
120.00
company is hedged for H1FY12. However, with respect to Yen, which comprises
110.00 23% of total costs (including vendors import), MSIL has opted to not take any
100.00
hedges based on opinion of its internal economist’s team.
90.00
80.00  On back of festive season during the quarter the average discounts for the
28/01/2010

28/02/2010

28/03/2010

28/04/2010

28/05/2010

28/06/2010

28/07/2010

28/08/2010

28/09/2010

28/10/2010

28/11/2010

28/12/2010

28/01/2011

quarter increased by Rs 1,000 to Rs 10,700 QoQ per vehicle. Management


expects discounts to decline going forward.
Maruti BSE SENSEX
 The company is on track to launch its premium sedan, Kizhashi, in February.
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline
However, it denied plans of launching new diesel variant of its existing models.
 Due to absence of scrappage incentives exports to Europe were on the decline,
non-European exports have picked up substantially and now contribute 70%
of total exports versus 10% in FY10. Revenues from exports during the quarter
stood at Rs. 8.4 bn against Rs. 13.4 bn in the year-ago period.

Outlook & Valuation


 We believe employment opportunities are likely to accelerate due to strong
economic growth expected over the next couple of years. As per NASCOM IT
hiring to increase by 24% yoy in FY2012E and economists expects salary growth
Sushil Pathak to increase by 12-15% over the next couple of years. We expect India’s
Research Analyst domestic passenger car market to grow at 24% and 18% yoy in FY2011E and
FY2012E, respectively, driven by new model launches, increase in personal
Mobile: +91 77383 93374 income levels and expanding distribution networks of passenger car players.
Tel: +91 22 66188833 We expect demand for car is likely to be robust but completion in A2 segment
sushil.pathak@indianivesh.in will intensify in near future.

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 11


Result Update

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (contd...)


 At CMP of Rs 1233.5 stock is trading at P/E of 15.5x FY11E and 12.3x FY12E
and EV/EBITDA of 8.7x FY11E and 6.9x FY12E. We have arrived at the target
price of Rs. 1443.2 using relative valuation. We have downgrade the target
price from Rs 1621.3. We have used an average of EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples
to arrive at our price target.
Particulars Historical Multiple Multiple Per Share
Price to Earnings 9-15 11.04 1389.99
EV/EBIDTA 5-8 8 1496.57
Target Price 1443.28

Financials
(Rs in Mn) 3QFY11 3QFY10 YoY 2QFY11 QoQ 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY
Domestic Vehicles sold (No.) 299527 218910 36.83% 277936 7.77% 820350 625408 31.17%
Export Vehicles Sold (No.) 31160 39116 ‐20.34% 35718 ‐12.76% 107315 105535 1.69%
Total Vehicles Sold (No.) 330,687 258,026 28.16% 313,654 5.43% 927,665 730,943 26.91%
Average Realisation 280529.0 284226.0 -1.30% 284935.0 -1.55% 283124.8 283518.8 -0.14%
Income from Operations
Gross Sales 103828.4 80464.5 29.04% 99869.1 3.96% 293502.3 227343.9 29.10%
Less: Excise Duty on Sales 11061.1 7126.8 55.20% 10498.1 5.36% 30857.3 20107.8 53.46%
% of gross Sales 10.65 8.86 179.6 bps 10.51 14.1 bps 10.51 8.84 166.9 bps
Net Sales 92,767.3 73,337.7 26.49% 89,371.0 3.80% 262,645.0 207,236.1 26.74%
Income from Services (Net) 494.0 388.8 27.06% 402.7 22.67% 1293.9 944.2 37.04%
Other Operating Income 1683.2 1493.7 12.69% 1699 ‐0.93% 5540.2 3818.3 45.10%
Total Income from Operations 94944.50 75220.20 26.22% 91472.70 3.80% 269479.10 211998.60 27.11%
Expenditure :
Decrease/(Increase) in stock in trade and work in progress 1497.5 -1311.5 -1482.1 564.8 (2061.60)
Consumption of Raw Materials and Components 69590.3 54918.6 26.72% 69388.8 0.29% 199776.3 155740.9 28.27%
Raw Material 71087.8 53607.1 32.61% 67906.7 4.68% 200341.1 153679.3 30.36%
% of Net Sales 76.63 73.10 353.4 bps 75.98 64.7 bps 76.28 74.16 212.2 bps
Purchase of Traded Goods 3367.2 2294.1 46.78% 2849.6 18.16% 8972.4 6327.8 41.79%
% of Net Sales 3.63 3.13 50.2 bps 3.19 44.1 bps 3.42 3.05 36.3 bps
Employees Cost 2324.5 1324.5 75.50% 1568.2 48.23% 5502.3 3922.8 40.26%
% of Net Sales 2.51 1.81 70.0 bps 1.75 75.1 bps 2.09 1.89 20.2 bps
Other Expenditure 9147.1 6655.4 37.44% 9545 ‐4.17% 28117.0 19636.5 43.19%
% of Net Sales 9.86 9.08 78.5 bps 10.68 ‐82.0 bps 10.71 9.48 123.0 bps
Total Expenditure (a+b+c+d+e) 85926.6 63881.1 34.51% 81869.5 4.96% 242932.8 183566.4 32.34%
Profit from Operations prior Other Income and Interest 9017.9 11339.1 -20.47% 9603.2 -6.09% 26546.3 28432.2 -6.63%
Core Operating Profit Margin (%) 9.50 15.07 -557.65 bps 10.50 -100.04 bps 9.85 13.41 -356.05 bps
Depreciation 2369.4 2027.8 16.85% 2381.9 ‐0.52% 7168.3 6019.8 19.08%
Profit before Interest 6648.5 9311.3 -28.60% 7221.3 -7.93% 19378.0 22412.4 -13.54%
Interest 3.6 83.7 ‐95.70% 97.2 ‐96.30% 180.6 206.5 ‐12.54%
Other Income 1282.7 912.5 40.57% 1339.7 ‐4.25% 3624.4 4177.9 ‐13.25%
Net Profit before Tax from Ordinary Activities 7927.6 10140.1 -21.82% 8463.8 -6.34% 22821.8 26383.8 -13.50%
Exceptional Iteam (Net) 0 0 0 0 0
Profit Before Tax 7927.6 10140.1 -21.82% 8463.8 -6.34% 22821.8 26383.8 -13.50%
Tax Expense
For current year 2275.9 3264.8 2481.4 6534.0 7973.1
For earlier year
Total Tax Expense 2275.9 3264.8 -30.29% 2481.4 -8.28% 6534.0 7973.1 -18.05%
% of Tax 28.71 32.20 ‐348.84 bps 29.32 ‐60.92 bps 28.63 30.22 ‐158.92 bps
Net Profit after Tax for the period 5651.7 6875.3 -17.80% 5982.4 -5.53% 16287.8 18410.7 -11.53%
NPM (%) 6.09 9.37 -328.25 bps 6.69 -60.16 bps 6.20 8.88 -268.25 bps
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 12


Result Update

Sushil Pathak Swaraj Engines Ltd.- Riding on improved demand


Research Analyst  Riding on improved demand from its key customer Swaraj Division of Mahindra
Mobile: +91 77383 93374 & Mahindra, its engine sales volume for the quarter witnessed a jump of 28%
Tel: +91 22 66188833 over the corresponding quarter of previous year. The company has reported
sushil.pathak@indianivesh.in a revenue growth of 35% to Rs. 926 Mn compared to Rs 686 Mn in the
corresponding period of the last fiscal.
 OPM increased: Operating profit for the Q3FY11 registered a growth of 37%
over the corresponding quarter last year and touched Rs 160 Mn. Operating
margin stood at 17.3% up by 20 bps yoy but down marginally by 13 bps QoQ.
Raw material cost, as % to sales net stock adjusted, grew by 135 bps to 75.4%.
On the other hand, other expenditure and staff cost reduced by 81 bps to 3%
and 75 bps to 5% respectively.
 The PBT grew by healthy 33% to Rs. 164.4 Mn limited by crash in other income
though partially offset by depreciation cost. The other income declined by
47% to Rs. 3.8 Mn while the interest income grew by marginal 8% to Rs. 12.1
Mn. The net profit grew by constrained 28% to Rs. 113.3 Mn due to 290 bps
hike in effective tax rate

Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 436 SEL is trading at around 11.9x FY11E EPS. We had recommended
this stock for buying at Rs 380 levels on June 21 for near term target of Rs 420 &
longer term target of Rs 600. Our near term target is achieved. However in view of
the string fundamentals of the company we believe the stock can be accumulated
further for a portfolio investment. It may be added in every dip. On a conservative
basis & back of envelope calculation on EPS of around Rs 36, we arrive at a target of
around Rs 510 assigning 14x PE multiple.

Financials
Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY Q2FY11 QoQ 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY
Net Sales 919.3 681.8 35% 856.7 7% 2619.9 2045.6 28%
Other Operating Income 6.7 5.1 31% 5.3 -94% 17.1 15.2 13%
Total Income 926.0 686.9 35% 862.0 7% 2637.0 2060.8 28%
Expenditure
Inc/dec in stock in trade 5.9 (25.0) (11.5) 7.8 (50.8)
Cost of material 692.1 533.5 658.8 1974.6 1583.9
RM Consumed 698.0 508.5 37% 647.3 8% 1982.4 1533.1 29%
% of Net Sales 75.4 74.0 135.0 75.1 28.5 75.2 74.4 78.3
Employee Cost 42.8 36.9 16% 43.2 -1% 125.8 100.7 25%
% of Net Sales 4.6 5.4 ‐75.0 5.0 ‐39.0 4.8 4.9 ‐11.6
Other Expenditure 25.2 24.3 4% 21.4 18% 70.4 58.6 20%
% of Net Sales 2.7 3.5 ‐81.6 2.5 23.9 2.7 2.8 ‐17.4
Total Expenditure 766.0 569.7 34% 711.9 8% 2178.6 1692.4 29%
Operating Profit 160.0 117.2 37% 150.1 7% 458.4 368.4 24%
Operating Margin 17.3% 17.1% 22bps 17.4% -13bps 17.4% 17.9% -49bps
Depriciation 11.5 12.1 -5% 11.0 5% 33.0 35.9 -8%
PBIT 148.5 105.1 41% 139.1 7% 425.4 332.5 28%
Interest (12.1) (11.2) 8% (13.8) -12% (38.8) (47.1)
Other Income 3.8 7.2 -47% 5.1 -25% 14.7 36.1 -59%
PBT after Other Income 164.4 123.5 33% 158.0 4% 478.9 415.7 15%
Tax rate 31.1% 28.2% 290.5 31.5% ‐44bps 31.4% 32.3% ‐88.0767
Current Tax 53.5 39.6 50.1 7% 156.0 145.0
Deferred tax (2.4) (4.8) (0.3) 700% (5.5) (10.7)
Fringe benefit tax 0.00
Total Tax 51.1 34.8 49.8 3% 150.5 134.3
Net Profit 113.3 88.7 28% 108.2 5% 328.4 281.4 17%
NPM (%) 12.24 12.91 -68bps 12.55 -3168bps 12.45 13.65 -120bps
APAT 109.5 81.5 34% 103.1 0.30 313.7 245.3 28%
APAT Margin (%) 11.83 11.86 -4bps 11.96 406.81 11.90 11.90 -1bps
Paid-up equity share capital (FV-2) 124.20 124.20 124.20 124.20 124.20
Basic EPS & Diluted EPS 9.12 7.14 28% 8.71 26.44 22.66 17%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 13


Result Update

Sushil Pathak Jyoti Structure Ltd. (JSL)-In-line with estimates


Research Analyst
Key Highlights
Mobile: +91 77383 93374
Tel: +91 22 66188833  During Q3FY11, net sales grew at 8% yoy to Rs 5.5 bn led by decent revenue
sushil.pathak@indianivesh.in booking. The revenue growth was muted because of lower execution of order.
 The EBITDA during the quarter grew by 8% yoy to Rs 629.15 mn with margins
almost at same levels at 11.4%. Raw material to sales gone down by 851 bps
as Q3 for all T&D companies is a time for erection & sub contracting, hence
cost gone up by 645 bps to 20% of net sales. EBITDA margin remained in line
with the management expectation.
 Q3FY11 PAT remained muted due to increase in Interest cost which reported
an increase of 14% yoy and depreciation increased by 20% yoy. The company
has reported a marginally growth of 6% on its PAT to Rs 247 Mn. During the
quarter the tax rate stood at 33.4% and for the 9M the tax rates were at
33.8%.
 JSL has outstanding order backlog of approximately Rs 45.50 bn executable
in 18-22 months with exports contributing merely 5% of the order book.
 JSL has announced that it would look to set up a base in the US for making
lattice steel towers. It will invest around $12 million (around Rs 550 mn) for
this purpose.

Valuation
 We are positive on the long term growth prospects of the company. We expect
the order book of the company to grow further on order inflows from PGCIL
and SEBs. We maintain our earnings estimates with the expectation on new
order inflows.
 Currently, at CMP of Rs 114 the stock trades at FY11E & FY12E P/E of 8.5x and
7.3x respectively and looks attractive for long-term investment horizon of
12-18 months.
Financials
Particulars (Rs In M n) Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY (%) Q2FY11 QoQ (%) 9M FY11 9MFY10 YoY (%)
Gross Sales 5676.51 5221.03 8.7% 5613.57 1.1% 17081.31 14933.26 14.4%
Less: Excise duty 163.51 118.98 37.4% 190.19 -14.0% 502.49 268.66 87.0%
Net Sales 5513.00 5102.05 8.1% 5423.38 1.7% 16578.82 14664.60 13.1%
Other Operating Income 0 7.84 -100.0% 0 #DIV/0! 0.94 25.85 -96.4%
Total Incom e 5513.00 5109.89 7.9% 5423.38 1.7% 16579.76 14690.45 12.9%
Expenditure
Inc/dec in stock in trade 12.38 (6.65) -286.2% 31.49 -60.7% -87.94 31.77 -376.8%
Cost of material 2955.46 3192.28 -7.4% 3208.46 -7.9% 9537.22 9198.20 3.7%
RM Consumed 2967.84 3185.63 -6.8% 3239.95 -8.4% 9449.28 9229.97 2.4%
% of Net Sales 53.8% 62.3% -850.9 bps 59.7% -590.7 bps 57.0% 62.8% -583.7 bps
Employee Cost 188.00 157.61 19.3% 160.08 17.4% 521.49 435.09 19.9%
% of Net Sales 3.4% 3.1% 32.6 bps 3.0% 45.8 bps 3.15% 3.0% 18.4 bps
Erection & Sub contracting Expenses 1076.35 668.06 61.1% 947.42 13.6% 3141.77 2157.45 45.6%
% of Net Sales 19.5% 13.1% 645.0 bps 17.5% 205.5 bps 18.9% 14.7% 426.3 bps
Other Expenditure 651.66 515.39 26.4% 444.76 46.5% 1567.66 1206.04 30.0%
% of Net Sales 11.8% 10.1% 173.4 bps 8.2% 362.0 bps 9.5% 8.2% 124.6 bps
Total Expenditure 4883.9 4526.7 7.9% 4792.2 1.9% 14680.2 13028.6 12.7%
Operating Profit 629.15 583.20 7.9% 631.17 -0.3% 1899.56 1661.90 14.3%
Operating Margin 11.4% 11.4% -0.1 bps 11.6% -22.6 bps 11.5% 11.3% 14.4 bps
Depriciation 50.05 41.64 20.2% 52.82 -5.2% 148.38 106.89 38.8%
PBIT 579.10 541.56 6.9% 578.35 0.1% 1751.18 1555.01 12.6%
PBIT Margin 10.5% 10.6% -9.4 bps 10.7% -16.0 bps 10.6% 10.6% -2.3 bps
Interest 211.7 186.16 13.7% 206.86 2.3% 617.58 537.15 15.0%
Other Income 3.87 10.94 -64.6% 2.43 59.3% 12.55 19.14 -34.4%
PBT after Other Incom e 371.27 366.34 1.3% 373.92 -0.7% 1146.15 1037.00 10.5%
Tax 124.03 132.70 -6.5% 125.46 -1.1% 387.09 370.70 4.4%
Tax Rate 33.4% 36.2% -281.6 bps 33.6% -14.6 bps 33.8% 35.7% -197.4 bps
Net Profit 247.24 233.64 5.8% 248.46 -0.5% 759.06 666.30 13.9%
NPM 4.5% 4.6% -8.8 bps 4.6% -9.7 bps 4.6% 4.5% 4.3 bps
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 14


Result Update

Kakul Modani Titan Industries: Shining in all segments


Associate Analyst  Titan Industries exceeded the street expectations by registering Net Sales of
Mobile: +91 77383 93373 Rs. 19546 mn. Category-wise, Jewellery sales recorded a growth of 49.7%
Tel: +91 22 66188834 YoY and 40.3% QoQ to Rs. 15788mn. Although watches and eyewear and
kakul.modani@indianivesh.in precision engineering (combined) declined on a sequential basis by 9.2% and
1.3% respectively. The operating profit is up by 7% QoQ and 77% YoY to Rs.
1952 mn and the net profit is up by 7% QoQ and 81% up YoY to Rs. 1370 mn.
 At the CMP of Rs.3465, the stock is trading at 38.4x and 29.8x PER FY11E and
FY12E Bloomberg earnings estimates.
Titan Industries(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11 Q2 FY 11 Q3 FY 10 Y.oY % Q.o.Q %
Net Sales 19546 15360 13336 46.56% 27.25%
Operating Profit 1952 1817 1103 77.00% 7.43%
Net Profit 1370 1278 754 81.63% 7.22%
EPS (Rs.) 30.99 28.78 16.99 82.40% 7.68%

Titan Industries(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11 Q2 FY 11 Q3 FY 10 Y.oY % Q.o.Q %


Jewellery 15788 11246 10545 49.72% 40.39%
Watches 3251 3584 2409 34.94% -9.28%
Eyewear and Precision Engg 553 560 402 37.35% -1.36%

JK Paper: Sequential slowdown


 JK Paper came up with muted set of numbers sequentially. The company
registered net sales of Rs.3138 mn (up 18% YoY, 0.2%QoQ). There has been a
decline on its operating front as the operating profit went down by 7%
sequentially and up 8% annually. This occurrence is due to the increase in the
pulp prices.
 The company’s board has also given an approval of a rights issue of Rs. 2500
mn to increase their capacity and fund their project in Orissa to set up a new
pulp mill of 2,15,000 TPA and paper machine for manufacturing 1,65,000 TPA
of high grade copier paper with a total an investment of Rs 16,500 mn.
 At the CMP of Rs.51, the stock is trading at 6.5x and 3.6x PER FY11E and
FY12E Bloomberg earnings estimates.
JK Paper(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11 Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q %
Change
Net Sales 3138 3129 2653 18.26% 0.28%
Operating Profit 654 709 607 7.82% -7.75%
Net Profit 251 291 204 23.39% -13.65%
EPS (Rs.) 3.21 3.72 2.53 26.88% -13.71%

P&G
 P&G’s net sales went up by 8% YoY and 31% QoQ. Despite managing a volume
growth of 15%, the operating profit was almost halved to Rs.559 mn on an
annual basis. The company blames it on excise duty on its feminine hygiene
products and investments in accelerating category growth. The net profit for
the company stood at Rs.450 mn.
 At the CMP of Rs. 1648, the stock is trading at 27.6x and 22.2x PER FY11E and
FY12E Bloomberg earnings estimates. At present it is trading at attractive
valuation.
Procter & Gamble(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11 Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q %
Change
Net Sales 2986 2278 2746 8.75% 31.08%
Operating Profit 559 448 1026 -45.50% 24.91%
Net Profit 450 314 745 -39.68% 43.34%
EPS (Rs.) 13.85 9.66 23.00 -39.78% 43.37%

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 15


Result Update

Kakul Modani ATUL Ltd


Associate Analyst  Atul ltd reported net sales of Rs. 4026 mn which is up 31% YoY and 4% QoQ.
Mobile: +91 77383 93373 The company performed very well on their operating level by almost doubling
Tel: +91 22 66188834 their EBITDA on a YoY basis to Rs. 592 mn.
kakul.modani@indianivesh.in
 At the CMP of Rs.178, the stock has already touched an EPS of Rs.26 for the
9MFY11. We had anticipated an EPS of Rs.26 for FY11E (Please refer to our
note “Investment Idea” dated 27th Aug. 2010). After revising, we believe the
company would be able to touch an EPS of around Rs.33 for the current fiscal
making the stock attractive at the present valuation. We recommend BUY
with a TP of Rs. 265.
ATUL Ltd(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11 Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q %
Ch
Net Sales 4026 3877 3079 30.72% 3.84%
Operating Profit 592 566 235 151.62% 4.63%
Net Profit 280 295 48 484.34% -5.05%
EPS (Rs.) 9.44 9.94 1.61 486.34% -5.03%

Arvind Ltd
 Arvind ltd. Posted healthy numbers on a YoY basis but registered a decline
sequentially. The net sales on a standalone basis went up to Rs.6340 mn (17%
YoY; down 3% QoQ). On a consolidated basis, the branded apparel category
and retial business segment showed a growth of 57% YoY whereas denim
and khaki revenue grew by 39% and 22% YoY. The net profit stood at Rs. 314
mn on SA basis.
 At the CMP of Rs. 65, the stock is trading at 14.7x and 11.2x PER FY11E and
FY12E Bloomberg earnings estimates.
Arvind Ltd(Rs. In Mn.) Q3 FY 11 Q2 FY 11 - Actual Q3 FY 10 - Actual Y.oY % Change Q.o.Q %
Ch
Net Sales 6340 6545 5428 16.79% -3.14%
Operating Profit 880 914 772 13.97% -3.73%
Net Profit 314 283 123 156.49% 11.10%
EPS (Rs.) 1.48 1.13 0.48 208.33% 30.97%

Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 16


Result Update

JMC Projects: Q3FY11 Results Update


CMP : Rs.158
Execution woes still remain as a concern
Reco : NR  JMC Projects is promoted by well known Kalpataru Group, which has 63%
stake in the company. JMC’s is involved in construction of Automobile, Petro-
chemical, Pharma, Infra projects (roads, bridges, power) & Real-estate projects.
JMC reported an 8% year-over-year and 37.6% sequential increase in its
Q3FY11 revenues to Rs 3.6 bn. JMC continued reporting de-growth to almost
JMC Projects (India) Ltd muted year-over-year revenue growth (y-o-y Q1FY11 and Q2FY11 revenue
de-growth at -9.8% and -15%, respectively).
STOCK INFO
 Company’s sluggish year-over-year revenue growth in last 9 months, despite
BSE 522263
continuous increase in order inflows raise concerns over their execution
NSE JMCPROJECT
Bloomberg JMCP IN
capabilities, however, we wait to hear management’s comments in this regard.
Reuters JMCP.BO Based on media reports, JMC has an order book of Rs 42.5 bn, executable
Sector Construction & Engineering over the next 24-30 months. Of the total order book, ~60% are from the
Face Value (Rs) 10 industrial and real estate verticals. Interestingly, JMC despite having presence
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 261 across a wide range of verticals has experienced slow-down in revenues growth
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 4,196 in the last 2-3 quarters, with order inflows continuously increasing.
52w H/L (Rs) 239.2/ 132.0
3m Avg Daily Volume (BSE + NSE) 2,104,627  Widened revenue base on a year-over-year basis when coupled with 282 bps
improvement in yearly raw material costs led to a 79 bps improvement in
year-over-year EBITDA margins to 8.5% in the quarter. Improved Q3FY11
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %
EBITDA margins also reflect a 220 bps and 133 bps increases in the year-over-
(as on 31st Dec. 2010)
year construction and employee costs, respectively.
Promoters 63.0
FIIs 6.1  Toughened environment, coupled with investments in plant and machinery
DIIs 4.9 (doubled in last 3 years) and rising raw material costs should have strained
Public & Others 26.0 JMC’s financial requirements, and accordingly the interest expenses have
Source: BSE increased by 22% sequentially to Rs 72.2 mn in Q3FY11. Tax rates for JMC
increased from 27.4% in Q2FY11 to 30.3% in Q3FY11. With company reporting
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m a 8% modest year-over-year growth compared to the de-growth in the previous
JMC Projects -20 -22 1 2 quarters, when coupled with the other factors as discussed above have
BSE Sensex -8 -8 12 helped the company to report improved overall net margins to 2.7% in Q3FY11
Source: IndiaNivesh Research compared to 2% and 2.4% in Q2FY11 and Q3FY10, respectively.
JMC PROJECTS v/s BSE SENSEX  In March ‘10, JMC-SREI Infrastructure consortium won 83 km BOT road project
160.00
from NHAI, thereby connecting northern Haryana and North-West Punjab.
140.00
120.00
Moving in the value chain from a construction player to developer in the near
100.00 term would put a strain on the company’s financial resources and hence, we
80.00
60.00 see the debt to equity ratio to go up from the current levels.
40.00
20.00
-  Second half of the year being a good time for Infra players to report strong
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results, we are disappointed by companies almost muted growth, with order


inflows pouring in continuously. The order book/ TTM sales ratio has
JMC Projects Sensex
reportedly improved to 3.4 x in Q3FY11 from 2.0 x in Q4FY10.
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline
 In the last few months, very few announcements in the industrial and real-
estate sector have been made and a slow-down in the award activity has
been seen. Infra has not lagged behind in this race. With slow-down in award
activity and increased competition, JMC has reported sharp increase in order
inflows. This translates to a high win ratio. Now we are concerned over the
point that, has JMC lowered its IRRs expectations to win these new projects?
 All these above-mentioned factors need a closer examination. Based on street
estimates, at CMP of Rs 158/share, the stock is trading at a P/E multiple of
10.4x and 9.6x its FY11E and FY12E earnings, which in our view is trading at a
higher end compared to mid-sized players. Further based on FY11 and FY12
Y. Santosh Street estimates on an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 5.3x and 4.8x
Research Analyst multiple. With some more downside potential in the stock, we advise investors
Mobile: +91 77383 93416 to stay away from the stock till some clarity emerges on the execution
Tel: +91 22 66188842 capabilities and details of recent order inflows.
s.yellapu@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 17


Result Update

JMC Projects (contd...)


Financial Results
(Rs in mn) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY10 q-o-q change y-o-y change

Net Sales/ Income from Operations 3,636.1 2,642.2 3,367.0 37.6% 8.0%
Other Operating Income 8.0 34.2 19.2 ‐76.6% ‐58.3%
3,644.1 2,676.4 3,386.2 36.2% 7.6%

Expenditure
(Increase)/ Dec. in Stock-in-trade & WIP (17.7) (22.6) 36.9 ‐21.7% ‐148.0%
Consumption of raw materials 1,158.5 777.4 1,167.6 49.0% ‐0.8%
Employee cost 320.4 287.5 252.0 11.4% 27.1%
Construction Expenses 1,636.1 1,217.2 1,440.9 34.4% 13.5%
Depreciation 101.5 96.6 88.0 5.1% 15.3%
Other Expenditure 236.3 187.9 227.8 25.8% 3.7%
Total Expenditure 3,435.1 2,544.0 3,213.2 35.0% 6.9%

P/(L) from Oper. before Inc., Int., & Excep. Items 209.0 132.4 173.0 57.9% 20.8%

EBITDA 310.5 229.0 261.0 35.6% 19.0%


EBITDA Margin (%) 8.5% 8.7% 7.8% ‐1.5% 10.2%

Other Income 6.0 1.0 2.3 500.0% 160.9%


P/(L) from before Interest & Excep. Items 215.0 133.4 175.3 61.2% 22.6%

Interest 72.2 59.2 49.7 22.0% 45.3%


P/(L) from after Interest but before excep. Items 142.8 74.2 125.6 92.5% 13.7%

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0


P/(L) from ord. activities before Tex 142.8 74.2 125.6 92.5% 13.7%

Tax Expenses 43.3 20.3 43.5 113.3% ‐0.5%


P/(L) from ord. activities after Tex 99.5 53.9 82.1 84.6% 21.2%

Extra-ordinary items net of tax 0.0 0.0 0.0


Net Profit for the period 99.5 53.9 82.1 84.6% 21.2%

PAT Margin (%) 2.7% 2.0% 2.4%

EPS- Diluted before extra-ordinary items 4.29 2.48 4.28


Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 18


Result Update

Sadbhav Engineering: Q3FY11 Results


CMP : Rs.99
Timely Execution & Impressive top-line growth
Reco : NR  Sadbhav Engineering continued its impressive top-line growth trend over the
last two quarters despite a higher base and it reported a 51.2% yearly and
82.5% sequential growth in its Q3FY11 revenues to Rs 4.7 bn. During the
same time frame, most of its peers have been struggling to report strong
revenues growth numbers.
Sadbhav Engineering  After adding for the recent Rs 14.1 bn of order book from NHAI, the current
order book of the company stands at ~Rs 87.3 bn, reflecting an order book to
STOCK INFO
TTM sales ratio of 5.4x above 4.8x in Q1FY11, when the order book stood at
BSE 532710
Rs 67 bn. Over three-fourths of the order books are from roads vertical, with
NSE SADBHAV
Bloomberg SADE IN
the remaining from mining and irrigation. Order inflow of Rs 14.1 bn at Q3FY11
Reuters SADE.BO was down from Rs 16 bn of order inflows in Q2FY11.
Sector Construction & Engineering  EBITDA margins for Q3FY11 reported a 197 bps year-over-year decline to
Face Value (Rs) 1 11.1%. Sequentially the EBITDA margins declined 900 bps from 12% in Q2FY11.
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 133
Decline in margins reflects a 352 bps year-over-year decrease and 479 bps
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 13,120
sequential increases in Q3FY11 construction expenses.
52w H/L (Rs) 164.0/ 99.0
3m Avg Daily Volume (BSE + NSE) 60,101  The company’s overall PAT margins improved to 5.5% in Q3FY11 from 4.5% in
Q3FY10 and 5.3% in Q2FY11. The margins improved despite a 63% increase
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % in the sequential interest expense to Rs 68.3 mn and a marginal increase in
(as on 31st Dec. 2010) the tax rate from 34% in Q2FY11 to 35% in Q3FY11. Tax rate on a year-over-
Promoters 47.5 year basis however, reported a 122 bps decline.
FIIs 23.0
 Sadbhav Engineering has been dependent and would continue to be
DIIs 18.5
Public & Others 11.0
dependent on road orders for its overall growth. It had won a road project (as
Source: BSE
mentioned above) from the 18 road projects worth Rs 138.8 bn awarded in
June 2010.
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m  Last checked in Q2FY11, the company had bid for orders over Rs 100 bn in the
Sadbhav Engineering -16 -31 -15 mining segment and the company remained hopeful to bag projects in this
BSE Sensex -9 -8 12 vertical. We have not factored any order wins in Q3FY11 from the mining
Source: IndiaNivesh Research space.
SADBHAV ENG. v/s BSE SENSEX  At CMP of Rs 99/share, the stock is trading at an adjusted P/E multiple of
160.00
18.2x and 12.9x its FY11E and FY12E earnings. Further, on EV/EBITDA multiple,
140.00
120.00
Sadbhav is trading at 13.5x and 10.8x times. We expect the Company to have
100.00
80.00
strong order inflow growth, and continue its strong execution capabilities.
60.00
40.00
We view that road vertical to be the first amongst infra verticals to resume
20.00 the award activity in the next 3-5 months time, and company to be one of the
-
key beneficiaries from this positive development.
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Sadbhav Eng Sensex

Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline

Y. Santosh
Research Analyst
Mobile: +91 77383 93416
Tel: +91 22 66188842
s.yellapu@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 19


Result Update

Sadbhav Engineering (contd...)


Standalone Financials
(Rs in mn.) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY10 q-o-q change y-o-y change

Income from Operations 4,762.2 2,609.0 3,149.9 82.5% 51.2%

Expenditure
Construction Expenses 3,923.9 2,024.8 2,706.3 93.8% 45.0%
Employee cost 68.8 48.7 46.8 41.3% 47.1%
Other Expenses 240.8 221.2 109.1 8.9% 120.7%
Depreciation 68.4 66.5 43.7 2.9% 56.5%
Total Expenditure 4,301.9 2,361.3 2,905.9 82.2% 48.0%

P/(L) from Oper. before Inc., Int., & Excep. Items 460.3 247.7 244.0 85.8% 88.6%

EBITDA 528.8 314.2 287.8 68.3% 83.8%


EBITDA Margin (%) 11.1% 12.0% 9.1% ‐7.8% 21.5%

Other Income 14.1 2.4 27.2 492.2% ‐48.4%


P/(L) from before Interest & Excep. Items 474.4 250.1 271.3 89.7% 74.9%

Interest 68.3 41.9 49.9 62.9% 36.7%


P/(L) from after Interest but before excep. Items 406.1 208.2 221.3 95.1% 83.5%

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0


P/(L) from ord. activities before Tex 406.1 208.2 221.3 95.1% 83.5%

Tax Expenses 142.3 70.8 80.3 100.9% 77.3%


P/(L) from ord. activities after Tex 263.8 137.3 141.1 92.1% 87.0%

Extra-ordinary items net of tax 0.0 0.0 0.0


Net Profit for the period 263.8 137.3 141.1 92.1% 87.0%

EPS- Basic before extra-ordinary items 2.02 10.67 11.29


EPS- Diluted before extra-ordinary items 1.86 9.67 11.29
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 20


Result Update

Jaiprakash Associates: Q3FY11 Results Update


CMP : Rs.87
Waiting to catch the momentum
Reco : NR  Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) continued its lackluster H1FY11 top-line growth
in Q3FY11 too. The company reported a 0.5% year-over-year increase and
a -3.3% sequential de-growth in its Q3FY11 core revenues to Rs 28.9 bn.
Cement business (40.9% of Q3FY11 revenues) reported a 2.4% sequential as
well as 30.5% year-over-year revenue growth to Rs 12.3 bn in Q3FY11.
Jaiprakash Associates
 The year-over-year growth in cement business reflects the impact of increase
STOCK INFO in capacity additions seen during Q4FY10 and Q1FY11. Further, pricing gains
BSE 532532 should also be seen on year-over-year basis, with marginal price increases
NSE JPASSOCIAT seen across JPAs key northern, eastern and central markets.
Bloomberg JPA IN
Reuters JAIA.BO  Construction business (41.8% of Q3FY11 revenues) reported a de-growth both
Sector Construction & Engineering on yearly and sequential basis to Rs 12.6 bn in Q3FY11. Real Estate (14.1% of
Face Value (Rs) 2 Q3FY11 revenues) reported a 31.6% sequential and 23.1% of year-over-year
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 4,253 increase in its Q3FY11 revenues to 4.2 bn.
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 185,957
52w H/L (Rs) 162.85/ 86.10
 The company reported a 563 bps decline and 644 bps increases in its sequential
3m Avg Daily Volume (BSE + NSE) 13,162,466 and year-over-year operating costs as % of sales, respectively to 58.1% in
Q3FY11. We view the hike in raw material prices as well hike in freight charges
led to year-over-year increase in the operating expenses during Q3FY11.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %
Employee benefits as % of sales reported a strong 123 bps increase on a year-
(as on 31st Dec. 2010)
over-year basis to 5.2% in Q3FY11. The overall EBITDA margins in Q34FY11
Promoters 46.0
were at 35.3%, compared to 25.4% in Q2FY11 and 36.7% in Q3FY10.
FIIs 23.4
DIIs 10.0  On the PBT margin front, cement vertical reported a decline to 11.5% in
Public & Others 20.7 Q3FY11 compared to 15.6% in Q2FY11 and 24.9% in Q3FY10. This reflects the
Source: BSE impact of rise in coal, power and freight charges, the company experienced.
Construction business margins improved sequentially to 21.4% in Q3FY11
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m compared to 20.9% in Q2FY11, however, they remained below 24.9% levels
JP Associates -15 -27 -36 in Q3FY10. Real Estate, is the only business segment, which reported improved
BSE Sensex -9 -8 12 margins in toto as the Q3FY11 margins stood at 69.1% , compared to 41.2% in
Source: IndiaNivesh Research Q2FY11 and 42.5% in Q3FY10.
JP ASSOCIATES v/s BSE SENSEX  As per Q4FY10 the Company had a debt/Equity ratio of 4.0x and with a rise in
140.00 interest rates expected going forward, we expect the companies interest
120.00
100.00
burden to increase and impact negatively the overall margins.
80.00
60.00  Tax rate declined 252 bps on a year-over-year basis to 34.8% in Q3FY11
40.00
20.00
compared to 37.4% in Q3FY10. PAT margins on a whole, witnessed an
- improvement on sequential basis to 7.9% in Q3FY11 compared to 3.8% in
25/01/2010

25/02/2010

25/03/2010

25/04/2010

25/05/2010

25/06/2010

25/07/2010

25/08/2010

25/09/2010

25/10/2010

25/11/2010

25/12/2010

25/01/2011

Q2FY11, still the margins were down compared to 10.6% in Q3FY10.


JP Associates Sensex  From Return on Capital Employed perspective, only Real Estate division
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline reported impressive margins at 12.9% in Q3FY11 compared to 6.1% in Q2FY11.
Other business, witnessed deterioration in the RoCE during the quarter.
 We believe, JPA is gearing up for the cement business, which would come out
of the over-supply state from Q4FY12 onwards. It is then the company should
report sustainable improvement in its realizations, till then we can expect
marginal upsides in realizations due to increase in the power and freight
charges.
 With Yamuna Expressway to be opened up from Jul-11, and some of the power
ventures having gained traction and ahead of their completion schedule (such
as Karcham Wangtoo project), we believe in the company’s growth story, going
Y. Santosh forward. At CMP of Rs 87.4/share, the stock trades at adjusted P/E multiple of
Research Analyst 19.7x and 17.2x its FY11E and FY12E earnings. Further, on EV/EBITDA basis,
for FY11 and FY12, the stock trades at 13.4x and 10.5x multiples.
Mobile: +91 77383 93416
Tel: +91 22 66188842
s.yellapu@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 21


Result Update

Jaiprakash Associates (contd...)


Standalone Financials
(Rs in mn.) Q3 FY2011 Q2 FY2011 Q3 FY2010 q-o-q change y-o-y change

Net Sales 28,937.1 29,932.6 28,786.3 ‐3.3% 0.5%


Other Operating Income 549.4 779.6 852.0 ‐29.5% ‐35.5%
29,486.50 30,712.20 29,638.30 ‐4.0% ‐0.5%

Operating Expenses
(Inc.)/ Dec. in stock-in-trade & WIP (585.7) (1,164.1) 1,947.8 ‐49.7% ‐130.1%
Operating/Manufacturing Expenses 16,820.8 19,085.8 14,879.6 ‐11.9% 13.0%
Employee Remuneration and Benefits 1,492.1 1,453.2 1,129.8 2.7% 32.1%
Other Operating Expenses 1,541.7 3,747.0 1,109.4 ‐58.9% 39.0%
Raw Materials and Components Consumed 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation 3,294.9 1,527.8 2,828.7 115.7% 16.5%
Total Operating Expenses 22,563.8 24,649.7 21,895.3 ‐8.5% 3.1%

Profit before Oth. Income, Interest & Exceptional item 6,922.7 6,062.5 7,743.0 14.2% ‐10.6%

EBITDA 10,217.6 7,590.3 10,571.7 34.6% ‐3.3%


EBITDA Margin (%) 35.3% 25.4% 36.7% 39.2% ‐3.9%

Other Non Operating Exp./ (Income) (39.0) (39.9) (38.5) ‐2.3% 1.3%
Profit before Interest & Exceptional items 6,961.7 6,102.4 7,781.5 14.1% ‐10.5%

Interest Expense (Net) 3,381.8 3,233.5 2,762.3 4.6% 22.4%


Profit after interest but before exceptional items 3,579.9 2,868.9 5,019.2 24.8% ‐28.7%

Exceptional Items
Profit on sale of shares 0.0 0.0 0.0
Provision for writing off claims- Iraq works 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prior Period adjustments (8.8) 27.4 9.8
Profit from ordinary activities before tax 3,571.10 2,896.30 5,029.00 23.3% ‐29.0%

Tax Expense
Current Tax 707.5 569.3 812.8 24.3% ‐13.0%
Deferred Tax 537.0 1,171.8 1,066.6 ‐54.2% ‐49.7%
Fringe Benefits Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0
1,244.5 1,741.1 1,879.4

Net Profit from ordinary activities after tax 2,326.6 1,155.2 3,149.6 101.4% ‐26.1%

PAT Margin (%) 7.9% 3.8% 10.6%

Extra-ordinary items 0.0 0.0 2,119.4

Net Profit for the period 2,326.6 1,155.2 1,030.2 101.4% 125.8%

Diluted EPS before Extra-ordinary items 1.10 0.52 1.49 111.5% ‐26.2%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 22


Result Update

Oberoi Realty: Q3FY11 Results Update


CMP : Rs.246
Well positioned to gain from expected upswing in the Mumbai real estate
Reco : NR markets
 On consolidated basis, Oberoi Realty reported a 132.5% sequential and 90.5%
Target : Rs. year-over-year increase in revenues to Rs 3.9 bn in Q3FY11.
Some of the on-going projects have been discussed below:
Oberoi Realty Ltd.  Oberoi Exquisite I: 386 flats were booked for total value of Rs 8.1 bn and the
STOCK INFO
cash collected towards this project is Rs 3.3 bn. Company expects revenue
recognition for this project to commence by the end of FY 11.
BSE 533273
NSE OBEROIRLTY  Oberoi Springs: Of the 22 flats left (on Mar-10), Oberoi sold 16 flats in H1
Bloomberg OBER IN FY2011 for a total value of Rs 451.1 mn.
Reuters OBER.BO
Sector Real Estate  Oberoi Splendor: Of the total 1,296 flats, 1,191 flats have been sold for Rs
Face Value (Rs) 10 13.3 bn. In H1FY11, revenue booked from this project (percentage completion
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 3,282 method) is Rs 1.8 bn.
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 80,811
52w H/L (Rs) 306.6/ 240.0  Oberoi Splendor Grande: The second phase of Residential project at JVLR,
3m Avg Daily Volume (BSE + NSE) 216,514 Andheri (E), commenced its construction work in H1FY11. The construction
work is progressing as per the schedule.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %  Oberoi Prisma: First phase of office space at JVLR, Andheri (E), has commenced
(as on 31st Dec. 2010) the construction in H1FY11.
Promoters 78.5
FIIs 5.7
 Oberoi Mall: Occupancy level at the Mall increased from 90% in Q4FY10 to
DIIs 1.9 92% in Q3FY11. Rental and related income in H1 FY2011 stood at Rs 296.4
Public & Others 14.0 mn.
Source: BSE  Commerz: This project reported occupancy level of 77% in Q3FY11 compared
to 74% in Q4FY10. Rental and related income in H1 FY11 stood at Rs 227 mn.
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m YTD
Oberoi Realty -21 -44 -53  Commerz II (Phase I): This project (for office space) is under construction.
BSE Sensex -7 -7 -8  Westin Mumbai Garden City: Average room occupancy rate since the opening
Source: IndiaNivesh Research
in Mar-2010, has shown increasing trend and the occupancy for Sep 2010
--- v/s BSE SENSEX
Stood at 53% levels. ARR for Sep-10 was at Rs.6,700 levels.
120.00  Coming back to review the margins of the company, Oberoi Realty reported
100.00

80.00
an increase in EBITDA margins to 61.9% in Q3FY11 compared to 59.2% in
60.00 Q2FY11, however, margins remained below when compared to 64.1% in
40.00
Q3FY10. The improvement in EBITDA margins is despite an increase in the
20.00
-
land, development, construction of properties costs as % of sales from 33.2%
in Q2FY11 and 35.1% in Q3FY10 to 36% in Q3FY11. The impact of sharp shoot-
10/05/2010

10/06/2010

10/07/2010

10/08/2010

10/09/2010

10/10/2010

10/11/2010

10/12/2010

10/01/2011

up in the revenues covers up for this increase in these expenses during the
Oberoi Realty Sensex quarter.
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline
 Oberoi reported PAT margins of 51.5% in Q3FY11 compared to 56.2% in
Q2FY11 and 62% in Q3FY10.
 The company reported an EPS of Rs 6.37/share in Q3FY11 compared to
Rs 3.31/share in Q2FY11 and Rs 4.47/share in Q3FY10.
 The company raised Rs 10.2 bn from the IPO in October 2010. With zero debt
on books, and a huge land bank of 20 mn sq. ft. acquired at attractive prices
(likely to last for another 4-5 years), and a revival in Mumbai real estate
markets, makes us believe in the long term growth propsects of the company.
We expect the stock to continue reporting impressive set of numbers going
forward. At CMP of Rs 246.2/share, the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple
Y. Santosh of 11.2x and 7.7x for its FY11 and FY12 multiples.
Research Analyst
Mobile: +91 77383 93416
Tel: +91 22 66188842
s.yellapu@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 23


Result Update

Oberoi Realty (contd...)


Consoloidated Financials
(Rs in mn.) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 Q2FY10 q-o-q change y-o-y change

Net Sales/ Income from Operations 3,951.7 1,699.7 2,605.9 132.5% 51.6%
Other Operating Income 35.1 0.9 0.0
3,986.8 1,700.6 2,605.9 134.4% 53.0%

Operating Expenses
Land Cost, Development rights, constructed properties & Other Operating Exp. 1,422.4 563.7 1,060.3 152.3% 34.2%
Employee Cost 70.2 68.7 17.1 2.2% 310.5%
Depreciation & Employees 60.8 57.8 23.0 5.2% 164.3%
Other Expenditure 25.6 61.9 13.0 ‐58.6% 96.9%
1,579.0 752.1 1,113.4 109.9% 41.8%

Profit from Operations before Oth. Income, Int. & Exceptional Items 2,407.8 948.5 1,492.5 153.9% 61.3%

EBITDA 2,468.6 1,006.3 1,515.5 145.3% 62.9%


EBITDA Margin (%) 61.9% 59.2% 58.2% 4.6% 6.5%

Other Income 218.1 70.1 38.6 211.1% 465.0%


Profit before Interest & Exceptional Items 2,625.9 1,018.6 1,531.1 157.8% 71.5%

Interest and finance charges 3.2 2.1 0.0 52.4%


Profit after interest but before prior period/exceptional items 2,622.7 1,016.5 1,531.1 158.0% 71.3%

Prior period items 0.0 0.0 0.0


Profit from ordinary activities before tax 2,622.7 1,016.5 1,531.1 158.0% 71.3%

Tax expense 570.4 61.5 36.2 827.5% 1475.7%


Net profit from ordinary activities after tax 2,052.3 955.0 1,494.9 114.9% 37.3%

Extraordinary item 0.0 0.0 0.0


Net profit for the period 2,052.3 955.0 1,494.9 114.9% 37.3%

PAT Margins (%) 51.5% 56.2% 57.4%

EPS- Diluted 6.37 3.31 5.12


Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 24


Result Update
January 28, 2011 Bank of Baroda
Robust Performance..

Darshana R. …Growth in profitability.. Asset quality improved.. Adequate capitalization..


Research Analyst
Bank of Baroda’s net profit grew by 28.4% (Y-o-Y) in Q3FY11, primarily driven by
Mobile: +91 77383 93376 robust growth in NII and pre-provision operating profits. The bank’s NIM improved
Tel: +91 22 66188832 to 3.82% in Q3FY11 from 3.40% in Q3FY10.
darshana.rathod@indianivesh.in
The bank’s asset quality improved with gross NPA at 1.32% at Q3FY11, down from
1.43% at Q3FY10 and 1.39% at Q2FY11. The bank’s capitalization remained adequate
with CAR at 12.45% at Q3FY11.
At CMP of Rs. 836, the stock is trading at P/ABV of 1.5x (Consolidated) FY12E. We
note that recently the bank’s stock price has come under pressure on account of
concerns over pending heavy provision towards gratuity and pension liability.
However, we believe that the bank is fundamentally strong and has maintained
track record of robust financial performance. Furthermore, the expected capital
infusions will strengthen the bank’s fundamentals. We also note that the stock is
over-owned by FIIs, holding 18.19% at December 2010. Hence, we recommend
using correction in stock price as a buying opportunity for portfolio investment.

Key Highlights:
 Bank of Baroda’s net profit grew by 28.4% (Y-o-Y) in Q3FY11, primarily driven
by robust growth of 43.2% (Y-o-Y) in NII and 46.4% (Y-o-Y) in pre-provision
operating profits in Q3FY11.
 We note that growth in NII was mainly attributed to 35.7% (Y-o-Y) growth in
interest income and 31% (Y-o-Y) growth in interest expended, along with CASA
ratio at 35.12%. This translated into improved NIM to 3.82% for Q3FY11 from
3.40% for Q3FY10.
 The bank’s profitability matrix remained flat as RoA at 1.34% for Q3FY11,
compared to 1.36% for Q3FY10 and 1.34% for Q2FY11.
 The bank’s operating efficiency improved significantly with cost to income
ratio at 37.64% for Q3FY11, down from 44.05% for Q3FY10 and 39.08% for
Q2FY11.
 The bank’s asset quality improved with gross NPA at 1.32% at Q3FY11, down
from 1.43% at Q3FY10 and 1.39% at Q2FY11. The bank’s net NPA ratio stood
at 0.36% at Q3FY11, compared to 0.31% at Q3FY10 and 0.38% at Q2FY11.
 The bank’s capitalization remained adequate with CAR at 12.45% at Q3FY11
as against 14.65% at Q3FY10 and 13.22% at Q2FY11. Furthermore, we note
that the bank has been short listed for capital infusion by the Government of
India, which will strengthen the bank’s capitalization further.
 The bank’s balance sheet grew by 30.78% (Y-o-Y) in Q3FY11 with 30.86% (Y-o-Y)
growth in deposits and 32.68% (Y-o-Y) in advances at Q3FY11.

Valuation
At CMP of Rs. 836, the stock is trading at P/ABV of 1.5x (Consolidated) FY12E. We
note that recently the bank’s stock price has come under pressure on account of
concerns over pending heavy provision towards gratuity and pension liability.
However, we believe that the bank is fundamentally strong and has maintained
track record of robust financial performance. Furthermore, the expected capital
infusions will strengthen the bank’s fundamentals. We also note that the stock is
over-owned by FIIs, holding 18.19% at December 2010. Hence, we recommend
using correction in stock price as a buying opportunity for portfolio investment.

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited


IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Result Update (contd...)

Financial Highlights
Rs. Mn
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended
Particulars Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY(%) 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY(%) Q2FY11 QoQ(%) FY10
Interest Earned 56662 41770 35.7 155518 123445 26.0 51587 9.8 166983
Interest / discount on advances/bills 42122 31572 33.4 116162 92951 25.0 38383 9.7 125412
Income on Investments 12774 9132 39.9 34564 27309 26.6 11565 10.5 36559
Interest on Balance with RBI and other Inter-Bank Funds 1146 1020 12.4 3412 2989 14.2 1469 ‐22.0 4222
Others 619 47 1231.6 1380 196 603.5 169 266.0 791
Other Income 6762 6596 2.5 19747 19580 0.9 6813 ‐0.8 27249
Total Income 63423 48366 31.1 175265 143025 22.5 58400 8.6 194233
Interest Expended 33739 25757 31.0 93634 81500 14.9 31205 8.1 107589
Net Interest Income 22923 16012 43.2 61884 41945 47.5 20381 12.5 59395
Operating Expenses 11172 9959 12.2 31273 28461 9.9 10627 5.1 38106
Employee Cost 6942 6292 10.3 19271 18191 5.9 6562 5.8 23509
Other Operating Expenses 4230 3667.6 15.3 12002 10270 16.9 4065 4.1 14597
Total Expenses 44911 35717 25.7 124907 109960 13.6 41832 7.4 145694
Pre-Provision Operating Profit 18512 12649 46.4 50358 33065 52.3 16567 11.7 48538
Provisions and Contigencies 3041 2425 25.4 7409 3199 131.6 1855 63.9 6158
Profit Before Tax 15471 10224 51.3 42949 29866 43.8 14713 5.2 42380
Tax Expenses 4783 1900 151.8 13476 8346 61.5 4520 5.8 11797
Net Profit 10689 8324 28.4 29473 21521 37.0 10193 4.9 30583

Ratios (%)
RoA 1.34 1.36 1.30 1.20 1.34 1.21
Cost to Income 37.64 44.05 38.31 46.26 39.08 43.98
Gross NPA 1.32 1.43 1.32 1.43 1.39 1.36
Net NPA 0.36 0.31 0.36 0.31 0.38 0.34
Total CAR 12.45 14.65 12.45 14.65 13.22 14.26
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research Bank of Baroda - Result Update January 28, 2011 | 2


Result Update
January 28, 2011 Allahabad Bank
Better than street expectation…

Darshana R. Overall moderate performance but robust performance in core business..


Research Analyst
Allahabad Bank’s net profit grew by 20.4% (Y-o-Y) in Q3FY11, mainly due to robust
Mobile: +91 77383 93376 growth in NII and pre-provision operating profits.
Tel: +91 22 66188832
darshana.rathod@indianivesh.in We note that the bank’s profitability matrix and asset quality remained stable at
the previous levels. The bank’s capitalization also remained adequate.
At CMP of Rs. 198, the stock is trading at a P/ABV of 0.9x FY12E. We recommend
“HOLD” on this stock.

Key Highlights:
 Allahabad Bank’s net profit grew by 20.4% (Y-o-Y) in Q3FY11, mainly due to
robust growth of 55.7% (Y-o-Y) in NII and 21.3% (Y-o-Y) in operating profits in
Q3FY11.
 The bank’s profitability matrix remained flat with RoA at 1.28% at Q3FY11
and Q2FY11.
 The bank’s asset quality also remained at the previous level with gross NPA
ratio at 1.77% at Q3FY11, Q2FY11 and Q3FY10. The bank’s NPA ratio also
stood at 0.59% at Q3FY11, compared to 0.56% at Q2FY11 and 0.35% at
Q3FY10.
 The bank’s CAR stood at 12.78% at Q3FY11, as against 15.00% at Q3FY10 and
13.49% at Q2FY11.

Valuation
At CMP of Rs. 198, the stock is trading at a P/ABV of 0.9x FY12E. We recommend
“HOLD” on this stock.
Financial Highlights
Rs. Mn
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended
Particulars Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY(%) 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY(%) Q2FY11 QoQ(%) FY10
Interest Earned 28554 21077 35.5 78955 61626 28.1 26369 8.3 83692
Interest / discount on advances/bills 21309 15955 33.6 59256 47348 25.2 19840 7.4 63985
Income on Investments 7117 5047 41.0 19242 14061 36.8 6308 12.8 19448
Interest on Balance with RBI and other Inter‐Bank Funds 108 75 43.7 331 210 57.7 143 ‐24.2 252
Others 20 0 ‐ 126 8 1559.2 78 ‐74.7 8
Other Income 2576 3395 ‐24.1 9009 11139 ‐19.1 3447 ‐25.3 15159
Total Income  31130 24473 27.2 87964 72765 20.9 29816 4.4 98851
Interest Expended 18038 14322 25.9 50243 42548 18.1 16677 8.2 57187
Net Interest Income 10516 6756 55.7 28712 19079 50.5 9692 8.5 26505
Operating Expenses 5209 3650 42.7 14976 11311 32.4 5324 ‐2.2 16178
Employee Cost 3196 2094 52.7 9552 7057 35.4 3503 ‐8.8 10114
Other Operating Expenses 2013 1556 29.3 5423 4255 27.5 1821 10.5 6065
Total Expenses 23247 17971 29.4 65219 53859 21.1 22001 5.7 73366
Pre‐Provision Operating Profit 7883 6501 21.3 22746 18906 20.3 7815 0.9 25485
Provisions and Contigencies 2359 2463 ‐4.2 6584 4798 37.2 2714 ‐13.1 7769
Profit Before Tax 5525 4038 36.8 16162 14108 14.6 5101 8.3 17716
Tax Expenses 1368 585 133.9 4507 4290 5.1 1075 27.2 5653
Net Profit 4157 3454 20.4 11655 9818 18.7 4026 3.3 12063

Ratios (%)
RoA 1.28 1.31 1.24 1.29 1.28 1.16
Cost to Income 39.78 35.95 39.70 37.43 40.52 38.83
Gross NPA 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.69
Net NPA 0.59 0.35 0.59 0.35 0.56 0.66
Total CAR 12.78 15.00 12.78 15.00 13.49 13.62
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited


IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Result Update
January 28, 2011 J. Kumar Infraprojects Ltd.
Muted order growth concerns us….

 J Kumar InfraProjects reported strong 24% year-over-year increase in its


CMP : Rs.137 Q3FY11 revenues to Rs 2.4 bn. On sequential basis, the company reported
45.8% increase in top-line.

J. Kumar Infraprojects Ltd.  The impact of the recent inflationary pressures was seen with the company
STOCK INFO experiencing increase in its construction costs. Construction costs as % of
BSE 532940 sales were increased from 73.4% in Q3FY10 and 72.6% in Q2FY11 to 75.8% in
NSE JKIL
Bloomberg JKIL IN
Q3FY11. As a result, the overall EBITDA margins took a hit from 15.7% in
Reuters JKIP.BO Q3FY10 and 16.4% in Q2FY11 to 14.8% in Q3FY11.
Sector Construction & Engineering
Face Value (Rs) 10  The Q3FY11 PAT margins were benefitted from the decline in Tax rates, which
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 278
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 3,920 had come down from 34% in Q3FY10 and 30.8% in Q2FY11 to 21.8% in Q3FY11.
52w H/L (Rs) 272.2/ 134.0 On a whole the PAT margins improved from 8.2% in Q3FY10 and 7.8% in
3m Avg Daily Volume (BSE + NSE) 5,049,182 Q2FY11 to 8.4% in Q3FY11.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %
(as on 31st Dec. 2010)
 Almost muted order inflows (Rs 1.7 bn of order flows based on BSE filings
Promoters 54.5 assumed) and higher execution capabilities of the company led to a reduced
FIIs 4.0 order book of Rs 13.4 bn in Q3FY11 compared to Rs 14.1 bn in Q2FY11.
DIIs 4.7 Transportation Engineering, Civil projects, and Irrigation projects account for
Public & Others 36.8
Source: BSE
86%, 5% and 7% of the current order books, respectively.

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m  At CMP of Rs 137/ share, the stock trades at P/E multiple of 5.2x and 4.3x
J KUMAR INFRA -21 -44 -20 times the FY11E and FY12E earnings. Further, for FY11 and FY12 on an EV/
BSE SENSEX -7 -7 15 EBITDA basis, the stock trades at 2.5x and 2.1x.
Source: IndiaNivesh Research

J. KUMAR INFRA v/s BSE SENSEX  However, the declining order book/ TTM sales trend (1.6x in Q3FY11 vs. 1.7x
160.00  in Q2FY11) concerns us. With an overall muted infrastructure award activity
140.00 
120.00  environment, we expect investors to have a cautious views to enter at current
100.00 
80.00  levels, as there are stocks available with better revenue visibility to be available
60.00 
40.00  in the sector at compelling valuations.
20.00 

25/01/2010

25/02/2010

25/03/2010

25/04/2010

25/05/2010

25/06/2010

25/07/2010

25/08/2010

25/09/2010

25/10/2010

25/11/2010

25/12/2010

25/01/2011

J Kumar Infra Sensex

Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline

Y. Santosh
Research Analyst
Mobile: +91 77383 93416
Tel: +91 22 66188842
s.yellapu@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited


IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Result Update (contd...)

Company Financials
(Rs in mn.) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY10 q‐o‐q change y‐o‐y change

Net Sales/ Income from Operations 2,402.7 1,647.8 1,937.3 45.8% 24.0%
Other Operating Income 98.3 50.9 80.8 93.0% 21.6%
Total Operating Income 2,501.0 1,698.7 2,018.1 47.2% 23.9%

Inc./Dec. in stock-in-trade and work in progress (149.8) (68.7) (2.3)


Construction & Other cost 1,896.0 1,233.7 1,481.5 53.7% 28.0%
Employees cost 61.8 49.2 47.8 25.4% 29.3%
Labour Wages 163.6 110.7 89.9 47.8% 81.9%
Depreciation 39.9 37.7 35.8 5.6% 11.4%
Other Expenditure 173.1 104.1 97.2 66.2% 78.1%
Total Expenditure 2,184.4 1,466.8 1,749.8 48.9% 24.8%

Profit from op. before Oth. Inc., int. & exc. Items 316.5 231.9 268.3 36.5% 18.0%

EBITDA 356.4 269.7 304.1 32.2% 17.2%

Other Income 18.1 18.1 14.1 0.3% 28.5%


Profit before Interest & Exceptional items 334.7 250.0 282.4 33.9% 18.5%

Interest 64.9 59.3 30.5 9.4% 113.0%


Profit after interest but before exceptional items 269.8 190.7 252.0 41.5% 7.1%

Exceptional/Extra-ordinary items 0.0 0.0 0.0


Profit/ Loss from ordinary activities before tax 269.8 190.7 252.0 41.5% 7.1%

Tax Expense 58.7 58.7 85.6 0.0% ‐31.4%


Profit/ Loss from ordinary activities after tax 211.1 132.0 166.3 59.9% 26.9%

Basic- EPS before extra-ordinary items 7.59 4.75 5.98


Diluted- EPS before extra-ordinary items 7.59 4.75 5.98
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Research J. Kumar Infraprojects Ltd - Result Update |2


Concall Update
January 28, 2011 Lupin Ltd.
In line with street expectations

Key takeaways from concall


CMP : Rs.415  In current quarter the company filled 5 ANDAs. Including one for ophthalmic
product.
Reco : HOLD
 Total ANDA filings with US FDA reached 137, out of which company has
received approval of 47 till date.
 Company’s Indore SEZ manufacturing unit is expected to commence by end
of FY12, which has facility for oral solids, oral contraceptives and ophthalmic
and APIs.
 Suprax has reported stable revenue, while its market share has been improved
in US market from 17 to 19% due to decline in overall market of product.
 Lotrel is under price erosion due to increased competition.
 Antara for which Lupin bought marketing rights from US firm in Sep 09 is also
showing some price erosion.
 Company is suffering by some price erosion in Japan market as well.
 Management‘s intensity to launch 10 to 12 new product across existing
segments every year, seems sustainable on the back of strong & professional
team.
 Additional launch of 3-5 products in US market every year would drive its sale
further.

Valuations
At CMP Rs 415/share the stock is trading at PE 23x and 17.2x at FY11e and FY12e
EPS Bloomberg estimates, respectively. In previous quarter, we recommended stock
with target price of Rs 506/ share which was achieved. The long term growth story
of Lupin is intact. In short to medium term, company can feel some hindrances due
to slower down of sales from its existing products in US. Hence, we recommend
HOLD.

Bhagwan Singh Chaudhary


Research Associate
Mobile: +91 77383 93427
Tel: +91 22 66188835
bhagwan.chaudhary@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited


IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical Buzzer

Ajoy Modi Technical Buzzer


Head - Technical Research
 Nifty/Sensex (previous day closing): 5,512.15 (-92.15)/18,395.97 (-288.46).
ajoy.modi@indianivesh.in
research@indianivesh.in  Fresh long positions of a short term must wait for the break of 5639.65/
18811.96 for the upside target around 5850/19500 on the intraday stop loss
of 5459.55/18235.45 (or a set of new bottoms) and fresh long positions of a
long term must wait for the break of 5740.95/19158.43 for the upside target
around 6600/22000 on the intraday stop loss of 5459.55/18235.45 (or a set
of new bottoms).
 Reduced short positions of a short term may still continue un-touched for
the downside target around 5400/18000 on the intraday stop loss of 5639.65/
18811.96 but, short positions of a long term must continue un-touched on
the revised intraday stop loss of 5740.95/19158.43 for the revised downside
target around 4800/16000.

Nifty / Sensex Preferred Count


 With the firm-negative daily and weekly close last Friday, the daily and weekly
charts of Nifty/Sensex are in a perfect bear ‘set-up’ and the worst part is that
it is still the beginning on a larger time frame. On the other hand, with the
exact bottoms of 5459.55/18235.45 last Friday, Nifty/Sensex are lying in their
respective support area of 5450/18000 as well.
 With or without a fresh set of bottoms below last Friday’s bottoms of 5459.55/
18235.45, a break above 5639.65/18811.96 is the minimum requirement to
suggest that the support is actually taken in the area around 5450/18000.
Alternatively, any fresh long position in the current support area will have the
final intraday stop loss of 5348.90/17819.99, the break of which (5348.90/
17819.99) will confirm the ‘bear market’ ahead.

Nifty / Sensex Alternate Count


 The alternate (bullish) count will become the preferred count, if Nifty/Sensex
breaks above 5740.95/19158.43, for the initial upside target around 6600/
22000 on the intraday stop loss of 5459.55/18235.45 (or a set of new bottoms).

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 25


Indian and Global Markets - Outlook

Dharmeshh Kant, AVP - Strategies & Fund Manager (PMS)


Mobile: +91 77383 93372 | Tel: +91 22 66188861 | dharmeshh.kant@indianivesh.in

Indian Market (Cash Segment)

 Capital Market Segment: A weak opening followed hard selling pressure till the end. Nifty tumbled around 154.85 points to
close at 5512.15 down 1.64% from previous day’s close. Be it Banking, IT, Infra, Realty, Mid cap or Small cap all were hammered
with equal disdain.
ICICI Bank, ONGC and ITC were top three positive contributors to nifty while Reliance, HDFC and L&T were top three draggers.
Breadth of market worsened from 0.28:1 A/D ratio at 9:30am to 0.14:1 at the close i.e. for each advancer there were 7
decliners at close. Total traded value in cash segment was Rs. 15048.46 crores on NSE.

9.00
HOURLY MARKET BREADTH : 28/01/2011 NIFTY OHLC : 28/01/2011 7.10
8.00
7.00
6.97 VIX :28/01/2011
1600 5650 5.52
6.00
1400 5.00 3.66
5600 4.00 2.22
1200 5614.4 3.00 3.84
INDEX VALUES

5550 2.00
1.00 2.71
1000 0.00
5500 -1.00
800 1345 1269 -2.00
1057 1192 1264 1320 1334 5527.3
895 -3.00
600 5450 -4.00 VIX
-5.00
400 5400 5459.15 -6.00
-7.00
200 -8.00
255 219 162 132 105 104 184 5350 -9.00
98
0
OPEN/HIGH 9.15 AM LOW 2.40 PM CLOSE 3.30 PM 10:00 11:00 12:00 1.30 2:00 3:00 3.30
9.30 AM 10.00 AM 11.00 AM 12:00 PM 1.00 PM 2.00 PM 3.00 PM 3.30 PM
ADVANCES DECLINES AM AM PM PM PM PM PM

Breadth - O - Meter Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research
Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research

 Volatility Index: Remained firm through the session to climb 2.21% towards the close. It closed at 22.58 up 2.21% for the
day.

 Statistics: As per provisional data compiled by NSE, FII’s were aggressive sellers in Capital market segment (NSE+BSE) of Rs. -
706.84 crores while DII’s were buyer’s of Rs. 81.24 crores of equities. Since, 31st of Dec’10 FII’s are net sellers of Rs. -7451.89
crores of equities (provisional) while DII’s have bought around Rs. 4107.23 crores of equities.

FII Activity in Cash Market since beginning of DII Activity in Cash Market since beginning of FII (Rs Cr) 28/01/2011 DII (Rs Cr)
January'11 series in F & O. January'11 series in F & O 200
Net Buy (Rs. Cr.) Net Sell (Rs. Cr.) Buy - Sell (Rs. Cr.) 100
81.24
Net Buy (Rs. Cr.) Net Sell (Rs. Cr.) Buy - Sell (Rs. Cr.)
7000 0
4000
1999.54 5735.85
6000 -100
2000
5000 4107.23 -200
0
4000 -300
-2000
3000
-4000 -400
2000
-6000 -500
1000
-8000 -600
-7451.89 0
-10000 -700
-9451.43 -1000
-12000 -800 -706.84
-2000 -1628.62
Net Buy (Rs. Cr.) Net Sell (Rs. Cr.) Buy - Sell (Rs. Cr.) Net Buy (Rs. Cr.) Net Sell (Rs. Cr.) Buy - Sell (Rs. Cr.) FII (Rs Cr) DII (Rs Cr)

Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research

Outlook: Momentum indicators in daily, weekly and monthly charts continue to be in negative territory. Short term momentum
indicators in hourly charts have turned negative. For any meaningful pull back Nifty should clear 5640 on closing basis. However,
one is advised to wait for investment buy till Nifty holds 5940 on closing basis. For opportunistic buy and sell trades; one
should trade only with strict stop losses in place.

(contd...)

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 26


Indian and Global Markets - Outlook (contd...)

Indian Market (F&O Segment)


 Derivatives Market Segment: Index futures saw a trading volume of Rs.18300.25 crores arising out of 701869 contracts and
Index options saw 3006602 contracts getting traded at a notional value of Rs.85222.06 crores. The total turnover of the
Futures & Options segment of the Exchange was around Rs.124310.14 crores. Shorts were created in Bank Nifty and CNX IT
index.
 Stock Futures: Out of 223 securities, stock futures on 223 underlying securities got traded. The total number of contracts
traded was 656846 with a traded value of Rs.17589.48 crores. The top ten contracts contributed to around 35% of the total
traded volume in Futures on individual securities. SBIN was the most active future contracts on individual securities traded
today with 36305 contracts and RELIANCE was the next most active futures contracts with 34474 contracts being traded.

OPTION’S ACTIVITY
 Nifty: In February series build up was seen in 5100 to 5500 put options which saw 15.22, 16.33, 14.36, 29.15 & 12.84 lacs of
shares being added to open interest respectively. While call option strikes of 5500 to 5700 saw buying of 10.87, 21.44 & 13.66
lacs of shares respectively. Aforementioned call and put option strikes added at around their respective theoretical prices.
Interestingly, 5800 & 5900 call option strikes added 8.15 & 7.26 lacs of shares in their open interest at around 20% discount
to their theoretical price. Overall, PCR of Index options was 1.10. 5600 CE & PE strike had the maximum build in open interest
as on 28th of Jan’11 for February’11 series. Build up in PE: CE for current month series is 4:1.
 Stocks: Out of 223 securities, options on 143 underlying securities got traded. The total number of contracts traded was
112867 with a notional value of Rs.3198.35 crores. The top twenty contracts contributed to around 33% of the total traded
volume in Options on individual securities. RELIANCE was the most active option contracts on individual securities traded
today with 16836 contracts and TATASTEEL was the next most active options contracts with 11318 contracts being traded.

Nifty's Change in O.I. vis-à-vis Change in Index Options Activity Chart for 28/01/2011

7.77 5300 Feb'11 5400 Feb'11 5500 Feb'11 5600 Feb'11 5700 Feb'11
7.28
5.69 5.92 2915000
4.94
3.32 3.07 3.32 2144600
2.01 2.40 2.21
1.90
No of shares

1.47 1.11 1.23


0.99
0.88 1436700 1366150
-0.98
0.36 0.82 1284700
-0.26 -1.46 1087950
0.38 -0.18 -0.15 0.00
-1.08 -0.52 -0.58-0.73 -0.97
-2.38 -1.90 -1.69
3500 142150
-3.78 -3.65
3/1/2011

4/1/2011

5/1/2011

6/1/2011

7/1/2011

10/1/2011

11/1/2011

12/1/2011

13/1/2011

14/1/2011

17/1/2011

18/1/2011

19/1/2011

20/1/2011

21/1/2011

24/1/2011

25/1/2011

27/1/2011

-401150 -317050
Nifty strikes
% Change in O. I. % Change Nifty Change in O.I. "CE" Change in O.I. "PE"

Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research

 FII Activity – Futures & Stocks: FII’s were net sellers in index and stock futures and stock options while they were net buyers
in index options. They net sold Rs. -320.59 crores of index futures which had an impact of increasing their open interest by Rs.
657.85 crores and Rs. -412 crores of stock futures leading to a decrease in open interest by Rs. -427.95 crores. Aforesaid data
suggests FII’s created new shorts in index futures and closed out some of their buy positions in stock futures.
They were buyers in index options of Rs. 3039.64 crores and sellers in stock options of Rs. -8.50 crores. Since the beginning of
January series on 31st Dec’10 FII’s are net sellers of Rs. -5396.24 crores of Index futures leading to a decrease in open interest
by Rs. -1477.13 crores till 28th of January ’11. During the same period they bought Rs. 2362.96 crores of stock futures leading
to a decrease of Rs. -5558.42 crores in open interest.
Cumulative FII positions as percentage of total gross market position in the derivative segment as on Jan 27, 2011 is 38.48%.

FII Activity in Index & Stock Futures for 28/01/2011 Cumulative FII Activity in Index future since beginning of Cumulative FII Activity in Stock future since beginning of
January'11 series in F & O. January'11 series in F & O.
Index Futures Stock Futures
800.00 Buy - Sell Inc. O.I. Buy - Sell Inc. O.I.
657.85
0.00 3000.00 2362.96
600.00
2000.00
400.00 (1000.00)
1000.00
Rs (Crores)

200.00 (2000.00) -1477.13 0.00


Rs (Crores)

Rs(Crores)

(1000.00)
0.00 (3000.00)
(2000.00)
-200.00 (4000.00) (3000.00)

-400.00 (4000.00)
-320.59 (5000.00)
-412.41 -427.95 (5000.00)
-600.00
(6000.00) (5396.24) (6000.00)
SINCE 31st Dec'10 SINCE 31st Dec'10 (5,558.42)
Buy - Sell (Rs. Cr.) O.I. (Rs. Cr.)

Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research
(contd...)

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 27


Indian and Global Markets - Outlook (contd...)

0.07

RELIANCE
0.06

HDFC

LT
0.03

-0.12
ICICIBANK

ONGC

ITC
-0.17

-0.25

% UPSIDE CONTRIBUTION ON 28/01/2011 TOWARDS NIFTY % DOWNSIDE CONTRIBUTION ON 28/01/2011 TOWARDS NIFTY

Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research

Stock Futures Top Gainers in O.I. on 28/01/2011


Stock Futures top 5 Losers in O.I. on 28/01/2011
HINDUSTAN ZINC

TECHNOLOGIES
79% % Change in O.I.

GREAVES LTD
LIMITED

CROMPTON
NMDC LTD.

WIPRO LTD
HCL

LTD
35%
21% 21% 20%
ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE

SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FIN CO.


SUN TV NETWORK LIMITED

MCLEOD RUSSEL INDIA LTD.

CORE PROJ. & TECH. LTD.

-9% -9%

-18% -18%
-22%
% Change in O.I.

Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research

CNX Nifty Gainers - 28/01/2011 Top 5 CNX Nifty Losers - 28/01/2011

1.71
RELCAPITAL

HINDALCO

1.14
M&M

0.53
ACC
DLF

0.49 0.49
CIPLA
RELINFRA
ONGC

BHARTIARTL
DRREDDY

-4.51 -4.04 -4.04


-4.86
-7.16

% Change % Change

Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research Source: NSE; IndiaNivesh Research

(contd...)

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 28


Indian and Global Markets - Outlook (contd...)

Global Market Update


 US Markets: Fears over unrest in Egypt sent U.S. stocks reeling Friday to their biggest one-day decline in months and put an
end to the market’s eight-week win streak, as investors sought safety while oil prices surged. Meanwhile, the economy
regained momentum in the final quarter of 2010-and in most of the right places. Fourth quarter GDP accelerated to a moderately
healthy 3.2 percent annualized gain, following a 2.6 percent increase the prior quarter.
The last quarter of 2010 was led by sharp improvement in net exports to a gap of $392.2 billion from $505.0 billion in the
third quarter. Exports rose an annualized 8.5 percent while imports dropped 13.6 percent. Also boosting GDP were personal
consumption expenditures, up an annualized 4.4 percent; business investment in equipment & software, up 5.8 percent; and
residential investment, up 3.4 percent. Nonresidential structures posted a modest rise. Weakness was led by a sharp slowing
in inventory investment to $7.2 billion from $121.4 billion in the third quarter. Government purchases slipped 0.6 percent.
Consumer spending, accounting for about 70% of demand in the U.S. economy, rose at a 4.4% rate in the fourth quarter.
Economy-wide inflation as measured by the GDP price index softened to 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 2.1
percent increase the prior quarter. The consensus expected a 1.5 percent gain.
Wage inflation is no threat to accommodation by the Federal Reserve which closely watches the employment cost index. The
ECI rose a very mild and lower-than-expected 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Compared
with fourth quarter 2009, the ECI rose 2.0 percent for the second lowest year-on-year fourth-quarter reading ever. The lowest
reading ever was plus 1.4 percent in fourth-quarter 2009.
 Day’s performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 166.13 points, or 1.39%, to 11823.70, marking its largest
one-day drop since Nov. 16. The slump pushed the Dow’s week-to-date performance into the red, erasing a weekly gain it had
coming into Friday’s session. The Dow fell 0.41% on the week, its first weekly drop in nine weeks.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 23.20, or 1.79%, to 1,276.34, its biggest one-day drop since Aug. 11, 2010. It fell
0.55% on the week.
The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 68.39, or 2.48%, to 2,686.89, its biggest one-day drop since Aug. 11, 2010. It slipped
0.10% on the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 8.25 points, or 0.1%, to 11,985.44, after climbing to an intraday high of 12,020.5.
Twelve of the Dow’s 30 components closed higher. The S&P 500 Index rose 5.45 points, or 0.4%, to 1,296.63, with energy and
materials faring the best among its 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 20.25 points, or 0.7%, to
2,739.5. Advancers beat decliners by a more than 2-to-1 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange, where 1.2 billion shares
traded hands.
 Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 do suggest a technical correction in near term. Stop loss on S&P
500 stands 1260. Russell 2000 index which tracks broader market in US is looking an under performer relative to S&P 500
index in near term.
 Events to Watch: This week’s headline events are Personal Income & Outlays, ISM Mfg. index, Construction spending, weekly
jobless claims, Factory orders, ISM non mfg. index and employment situation.
 Emerging markets: Asian stocks are trading down this morning with cuts of 1.00% to 1.20% at the time of writing this report.
SGX nifty was trading down 92.5 points at 5452 on 8.01 am.
 Bullions & Commodities: Set ups have weakened for Gold & Silver. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures
finished at $1,340.80 an ounce and crude-oil rose to $90.60 per barrel on account of uncertainty in Eygpt.
 Currencies: Dollar index is trading at 78.24 this morning. It has breached its crucial support level of 79 and trading below its
50 day SMA. The dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on opposite paths, with a weak dollar seen as providing investors with
cheap funding to buy stocks. Plus the dollar’s drop generally helps U.S. companies’ overseas sales.

News Flow
 Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures Fall as Dollar, Yen Gain on Egypt: Asian stocks fell, extending the biggest global share slump in two
months, and U.S. index futures declined while the yen and dollar gained on speculation Egypt’s crisis will slow the global
recovery. Oil prices jumped. Egypt’s banks and markets stayed shut after clashes in the most populous Arab country left as
many as 150 people dead.
 Japan’s Industrial Output Gains Most in 11 Months: Japan’s industrial production increased the most in 11 months in December,
boosted by overseas demand that’s spurring the nation’s recovery. Factory output climbed 3.1 percent from November, when
it rose 1 percent, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today.

Events Today
 Personal Income and Outlays: Consensus estimate for personal income is an increase of 0.4% (M/M) for dec’10 over prior’s
months 0.3% (M/M) increase. While consumer spending is expected to grow by 0.5% (M/M) over prior month’s reading of
0.4% (M/M) gain. Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays
include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.

Source: Bloomberg, NSE

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 29


Things to Watch-out

Board Meetings (31-Jan-11)

Company Name Purpose Company Name Purpose


Borax Morarji Results, Rights Issue Nidhi Polyester Results, Voluntary Delisting of Shares
Graviss Hospitality Dividend, Results NTPC Dividend, Results
Gujarat Fluo Dividend, Results Shivalik Bimet Dividend
Himachal Fibres Preferential Issue of shares, Results Shree Cement Dividend
Mayur Uniquoter Dividend, Results Suprajit Engr Dividend, Results
National Alum Dividend, Results SVC RES Bonus, General
Source: BSE

Bulk Deals BSE (28-Jan-11)


Company Client Name Deal Type Quantity Price
Tata Coffee CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED B 177269 731.29
Tata Coffee CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED S 177269 731.69
Vikas WSP GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LIMITED B 715000 22.83
Source: BSE

Bulk Deals NSE (28-Jan-11)


Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Traded Trade Price /
Wght. Avg. Price
Agre Developers Ltd BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 135751 56.52
Agre Developers Ltd SVS SECURITIES PVT. LTD. BUY 86894 56.65
Madhucon Projects Limited AXIS BANK LTD BUY 550000 85.51
Mudra Lifestyle Limited MINT TRADING & INVESTMENT BUY 10500 55.25
Tata Coffee Limited CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD. BUY 176239 731.15
Agre Developers Ltd BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED SELL 133218 56.58
Agre Developers Ltd SVS SECURITIES PVT. LTD. SELL 99394 56.56
Madhucon Projects Limited AXIS BANK LIMITED SELL 416500 85.5
Mudra Lifestyle Limited MINT TRADING & INVESTMENT SELL 182500 54.76
Shree Ashtavinayak Cine V SICOM LTD SELL 8500000 8.65
Tata Coffee Limited CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD. SELL 176239 731.36
Source: NSE

Economic Indicators to watch-out


Indicators Mths Actual Mkt Forecast Previous
(28-01-11)
EZ M3 sa 3mth ave Dec 1.6 1.3%
EZ M3 sa y/y Dec 1.9 1.9%
US Employment cost Ind 4Q 0.5 0.4%
US GDP q/q (annualized) 4Q A 3.5 2.6%
US GDP Pr Ind 4Q A 1.6 2.1%
Core PCE q/q 4Q A 0.4 0.5%
US Personal Consumption 4Q A 4.0 2.4%
US U. of Michigan Confidence Jan F 73.3 72.7
Source: Bloomberg

IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily January 31, 2011 | 30


Result Today

Andhra Bank DCM KEC Intl Rolta India


Asahi Infra DLF Lakshmi Mach Shree Cement
Atlas Cycle DS Kulkarni LML Shriram Trans
Aurangabad Paper Dunlop India Madhucon Proj Silverline Tech
Bajaj Steel Escorts MAH HOLIDAY Sun Pharma
Ballarpur Inds Everest Kanto Maharashtra Indl Supreme Inds
Birla Capital Gujarat Fluo Maharashtra Seam Suven Life
Birla Ericsson GVK Power Mcleod Russel Tata Comm
Borax Morarji Hindustan Oil MMTC Tata Metaliks
BPCL HSIL Munjal Auto TCI Finance
BSEL Infra IDFC National Alum Themis Medicare
Canara Bank Indian Hotels Navneet Pub Tinplate Co
Central Bank Ishita Drugs Nirlon Tulsi Extr
Colgate Palmolive Jindal Saw Novartis India Vidhi Dyestuffs
D B REALTY JM Financial NTPC Williamson Magor
Dabur India Jupiter Inds Parenteral Drug

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