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2020 Election Information Briefing

To
Pennsylvania Republican Party

Seth Keshel, MBA


11 November 2020
Is Trump Holding or Expanding the White Working Class Flips He Made?

Forecasting MI, MN, and WI is hard because we don’t have


Party ID in those states to see if his share of WWC voters is staying
the same, expanding, or regressing.

Fortunately, Pennsylvania tracks by Party registration. The


Purple counties on the map represent counties lost by Mitt Romney,
but flipped or nearly flipped by Donald Trump.

Evidence:
Trump is not only holding, but expanding his WWC Purple Class base and turning them into
Crimson Class counties, which are still expanding in margin themselves according to PA voter
Registration. It is a safe assumption that this is also occurring in MI, MN, WI, OH, IL, IN, and IA.

Fun Historical Facts:


Luzerne County has gone to the winner of PA in every election since 1936, and is one of the best known bellwether counties in the nation.
It is poised to go to Trump by roughly 25 points, as indicated by voter registration trends over the past six elections.

Northampton County is another bellwether, having gone to the winner of PA every election since 1952; it has also been won by the winner of
the presidency all but 3 times since 1920.
How do the Eastern Swing States Align Since 1968, and What Does Florida Tell Us?
*Year selected as a reset from the 1964 wipeout and break from post-WW2 political environment
*Western Swing States Excluded
-Too much impact from immigration
-Rapidly shifting population trends
-Less cohesive than Eastern counterparts in identifying trends and bellwethers

*Understanding the Chart:


-Number under each year represents total swing from the previous election
-Color represents party benefitting from the swing (Red – Rep, Blue – Dem), not always the winner
-Example – Obama won FL by 0.9% in 2012, Trump by 1.2% in 2016 = 2.1% Rep Swing for 2016

*Key Takeways
-Pennsylvania and Michigan match perfectly with Florida. When Florida moves in favor of Reps in margin, so do PA and MI, on all 8 occasions. This is important, because FL GOP has
Drastically reduced the Dem voter registration edge, and voter registration trends have predicted the winner of FL in every election in the past quarter century. Watch the Florida margin.
-OH, WI, MN, and NH match Florida on 12 of 13 elections, with exception of 2004. It appears the Iraq War had negative effect on more states than only NH. 5 States withdrew from
Bush that year, leaving him with a close fight for OH in his reelection bid. NH GOP has lost registration ground, but also did in 2016, but made huge election gains. Indies hold major sway.
-NC and IA bucked FL on two occasions. NC is in the midst of a heavy GOP shift in registration, which corresponds to their elections perfectly this century. IA, in particular, pulled
away from Reagan thanks to the 1980s Farm Crisis, and gave 10% of their votes to Ross Perot in 1992 to produce some variance to these trends.
Bottom Line: If Trump improves from a 1.2% victory in Florida, the previous 13 elections show him expanding his winning margins in PA and MI, at minimum. If Bush lost ground in
the 2004 deviations due to the Iraq War, Trump’s record on peace should return WI, MN, and NH to their normal inclinations.
Pennsylvania Vote Margin Anomalies – Historical Registration Analysis
*Morning of 11/6 – Current Margin – Trump +19k votes
*Voter Registration Trend in PA is most accurate predictor of next election results at county and state level – Graphics below show annual shift to D or R parties, and subsequent vote margin shift
*Hypothesis: Biden ballots are being created in counties that have unanimously moved Republican in voter registration that should have much wider Trump margins based on historical trend
Analysis in relation to D-R voter registration shifts. This is tightening the statewide Trump lead artificially to position Philadelphia and its suburbs to Biden over the top on 11/6. On only one
Occasion in this entire analysis has a county tightening in favor of Republicans but produced a wider raw vote margin for Dems (Allegheny 2004, but by 2k votes – impacted by independent voters).
Shift to one party or another is seen in in the column “Party ID”

Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -14k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -13k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -12k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -9k

Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -13k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -16k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -14k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -23k

Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -5k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -11k
Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -5k Reduction of Expected Trump Margin: -14k

Forecasted Trump Margins by County Based on 2 decades of registration data:


Erie -12.5k, Beaver – 29k, Washington – 39k, Butler – 46k, Allegheny – (115k), Westmoreland – 74k Reduction of expected margin in these 12 counties ONLY:
Lackawanna – 3.5k, Luzerne – 45k, Franklin – 40k, Berks – 21k, Northampton – 10k, York – 72k MINUS 149,000 VOTES MARGIN
Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
150 123.8 90 86
103.9 98.4 96.8 85 82.1
93.8 80.5 79.5
100 80
74.4
50 75
R+21.1 R+4.6 R+0.4 D+4.3 D+11.0 70 R+9.3 D+2.6 D+4.2 D+5.3 D+6.3
0 65
DELAWARE COUNTY DAUPHIN COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100

103.6
Dem Votes per 100 Registered 103.9 Dem Votes per 100 Registered
105 110
99.5
100 100 94
96.1 91.4
94
95 92.1 90 84.5 84.4
90 R+9.7 D+4.1 D+7.1 D+9.8 D+15.0 80
R+7.7 D+2.8 D+2.5 D+2.0 D+2.7
85 70
MONTGOMERY COUNTY BUCKS COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100

Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
120 113.8 100
111.1 110.6 77
110 66.1 62.3 63.3 68.1
103.4
100 96.8 50
90 R+22.3 R+7.8 R+6.6 R+5.2 D+6.1 D+32.1 D+35.1 D+33.2 D+30.3 D+29.3
80 0
CHESTER COUNTY ALLEGHENY COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100
Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
100 80 77.2 75.6
95.5
73.7
95 91.4 75
88.3 68.9
90 70
84 84.5 65.2
85 65
80 R+26.8 R+16.9 R+18.0 R+17.7 R+15.1 60 D+2.3 D+11.1 D+10.8 D+7.5 D+3.6
75 55
CUMBERLAND COUNTY BERKS COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100

Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
100 84.2 100 83.9
73.8 77.6 80.4
71.1 71.9 66.8 69.3 70.3

50 50
R+17.8 R+10.4 R+12.2 R+15.2 R+18.3 D+4.4 D+15.4 D+16.1 D+14.9 D+14.0
0 0
YORK COUNTY LEHIGH COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100

Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
80 66 71.1 80
61.5 63.8 65.1 60.3
57.1 57.8 58
60 60 48.5
40 40
20 D+32.3 D+37.8 D+38.6 D+32.7 D+26.9 20 D+21.1 D+26.8 D+24.2 D+16.5 D+9.9
0 0
LACKAWANNA COUNTY LUZERNE COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100
Dem Votes per 100 Registered
73 74.3
Dem Votes per 100 Registered
80 71.3 67.7 100 83.6
59.5 70.9 68.4
60 64.9 67.6

40 50
20 D+11.6 D+21.2 D+19.9 D+16.0 D+13.0 R+13.5 R+10.7 R+15.4 R+21.1 R+24.6
0 0
ERIE COUNTY BUTLER COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100

Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
80 68.4 80 66.7
60 54.4 53.1 52 52.5 60 54.2 51.8 51.8 53.4

40 40
20 D+21.2 D+19.8 D+13.6 D+4.0 R+5.5 20 D+27.8 D+26.3 D+20.1 D+9.1 D+0.4
0 0
WESTMORELAND COUNTY WASHINGTON COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100

Dem Votes per 100 Registered Dem Votes per 100 Registered
80 80 69.6
57.8 56.9 57 57.4 57.2 56.4 54.9
60 47.3 60
41.6
40 40
20 D+30.9 D+31.1 D+26.7 D+14.5 R+2.9 20 D+29.3 D+29.3 D+24.9 D+16.2 D+7.1
0 0
CAMBRIA COUNTY BEAVER COUNTY
2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100 2004 D/100 2008 D/100 2012 D/100 2016 D/100 2020 D/100
Key Takeaways - Pennsylvania
Western PA *Limiting Trump turnout and advantage, and giving Biden all advantages,
Including:

* -Obama level Philly turnout


-Historic suburban Philly blowouts
-All benefits of doubt normally favoring incumbent R

Trump still carries the state (previous margin ~44k) if his rural margin
Northeastern PA and turnout equal that of the last election…but…

*In Pennsylvania’s last election, in the 46 counties outside


of these 21 key counties, Two-party ID broke down to:
-937,758 Republicans (56%)
* Northeastern PA -734,661 Democrats (44%)

*
*
*Today’s Two-party ID in the remaining 46 counties comes out to:
-1,005,379 Republicans (65%) - +67,621 since 2016
-651,049 Democrats (35%) - MINUS 83,613 since 2016

* *In keeping with these numbers and statewide partisan registration


** Philly and Suburbs trend, it would defy historical precedent for Trump not to expand his
* margin and win Pennsylvania once again.

* *The key to Pennsylvania’s dramatic shift (nearly 200k shift toward GOP
has been a massive power shift in Western PA, combined with utter
domination of the PA rurals. Philadelphia’s size is all that is keeping
PA from turning into Ohio.
Northeastern PA
Luzerne, Lackawanna,
Philly and Suburbs
Bucks, Montgomery, Chester,
Western PA Northampton, Lehigh
Southeastern PA Delaware, Philadelphia
Franklin, Cumberland, York, Dauphin,
Erie, Butler, Beaver, Washington, Lancaster, Berks
Westmoreland, Allegheny

2016 Partisan ID: D+18.6 2016 Partisan ID: D+17.9 2016 Partisan ID: R+10.5 2016 Partisan ID: D+27.3
2020 Partisan ID: D+14.5 2020 Partisan ID: D+14.1 2020 Partisan ID: R+11.4 2020 Partisan ID: D+28.4
Michigan Counties with More Raw Votes than Cast for Obama in 2008 (16% Win Margin)
*All 21 Counties in this chart report more total Biden Votes than Votes cast for Obama
In 2008. This is possible in a state like Texas or Florida with rapidly growing populations, but many of these
Counties are strongly shifting against Democrats. Those that are not are urban or college-campus influenced.

*Yellow labeled counties had one cycle down, and another up (Detroit only one up from 2008 in 2012)

*Red labeled counties had two consecutive cycles of fewer raw Dem votes

*Green column shows increase in Dem votes from 2016 to 2020, aside from Detroit spiking in spite of population decline:
-Ottawa – up 44% from 16-20, up 27% from Obama
-Kent – up 34% from 16-20, up 25% from Obama
-Grand Traverse – up 37% from 16-20, up 23% from Obama
-Washtenaw – up 22% from 16-20, up 20% from Obama
-Livingston, up 40% from 16-20, up 14% from Obama

It is critical to note that the following counties


Are showing 15-20% third party vote shares:

-Kent, Oakland, Newaygo, Cass, St. Clair,


Lapeer, Branch, St. Joseph, Gratiot, Midland,
Berrien, Van Buren, Lake, Eaton, Isabella,
Saginaw

-OAKLAND COUNTY is reporting over 300,000


More votes cast from 2016 (664k cast).

-WAYNE COUNTY has exceeded Obama level


Turnout in spite of declining population and
Diminished voter rolls.
Wisconsin Counties with Highest Share of Obama 2008 Votes (14% Margin of Victory)
*Yellow labeled counties had one cycle down, and another up

*Red labeled counties had two consecutive cycles of fewer raw Dem votes

*Green column shows increase in Dem votes from 2016 to 2020, aside from Detroit spiking in spite of population decline:
-Conservative centers (Ozaukee – 31%, Waukesha – 31%, St. Croix – 32%, Washington – 27%, Brown -22%
-College county – Dane – 19%, 26% more raw Dem votes than Obama 2008
-Milwaukee, Obama 2008 level turnout
-89% turnout overall

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