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Let's say you and a friend are flipping a quarter and he gives you 1:1 odds that the next flip will land on heads. You already know that it will land on heads 50% of the time, and it'll land on tails the rest of the time. In this case, he's giving you an even bet, because nobody has a statistical advantage. Instead, let's say your friend just won $500 playing poker online and is on a lucky streak. He offers you 2:1 odds that the next coin flip will be heads. Would you take this bet? Hopefully you would, because the chances of heads or tails coming up are still 1:1, while he's paying you at the 2:1 rate. Your friend is hoping to ride his luck a little longer, but if he gambles with you long enough, he'll be losing his shirt with these kinds of odds. The above example is a simplified version of what goes on in Texas Hold'em all the time. This is summed up in this short principle: In poker, there are two types of players. The first group are players who take bad odds in hopes of getting lucky. The second group are players who cash in on the good odds that are left by the first group.
Hand Odds and Poker Odds
Hand odds are your chances of making a hand in Texas Hold'em poker. For example: if you hold two hearts and there are two hearts on the flop, your hand odds for making a flush are about 2 to 1. This means that for approximately every 3 times you play this hand, you can expect to hit your flush one of those times. If your hand odds were 3 to 1, then you would expect to hit your hand 1 out of every 4 times.
Odds are given below for hitting a draw by the river with a given number of outs after the flop and turn, and examples of draws with specified numbers of outs are given. Example: if you hold  and the flop does not contain a , the odds of hitting a  on the turn is 22:1 (4%). If the turn is also not a , the odds of hitting it on the river are again 22:1 (4%). However, the combined odds of hitting a  on the turn or river is 12:1 (8%). For mathematical reasons, only use combined odds (two card odds) when you are in a possible all-in situation.
6 3.6 4.9 1.85 0.2 2.75 0.7 23 12 7 5 4 3.5 2.66 Backdoor Straight or Flush (Requires two cards) Pocket Pair to Set One Overcard Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House One Pair to Two Pair or Set No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards Set to Full House or Quads Open Straight Flush Inside Straight & Two Overcards Open Straight & One Overcard Flush & Inside Straight / Flush & One Overcard Flush & Open Straight / Flush & Two Overcards .2 1.1 3.2 2.9 1.8 2.1 0.7 4.7 5.4 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.95 0.1 1.One Outs One Card % Two Card % Card Odds Two Card Odds Draw Type 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2% 4% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 33% 34% 37% 4% 8% 13% 17% 20% 24% 28% 32% 35% 38% 42% 45% 48% 51% 54% 57% 60% 46 22 14 10 8 6.3 2.
A .A 3 Inside Straight [6 7 ] [5 9 A ] 8 .Q . Any Q 8 Flush [A K ] [3 5 7 ] Any heart (2 to Q ) 9 Inside Straight & Two Overcards [A K ] [Q J 6 ] Any Ten.6 .6 . 8 .A . K 15 .A .8 4 Two Pair to Full House [A J ] [5 A J ] A .K .Q .Q .J 4 One Pair to Two Pair or Set [J Q ] [J 3 4 ] J .A . K .8 . K .K 6 Set to Full House or Quads [5 5 ] [5 Q 2 ] 5 Q .3 . 8 .2 . K .2 7 Open Straight [9 T ] [3 8 J ] Any 7.J .J .6 6 Two Overcards to Over Pair [A K ] [3 2 8 ] A . Any club 12 Flush and Open Straight [J T ] [9 Q 3 ] Any heart.. A A .K . K .8 .Q 5 No Pair to Pair [3 6 ] [8 J A ] 3 . 8 .Examples of drawing hands after the flop Draw Hand Flop Specific Outs # Outs Pocket Pair to Set [4 4 ] [6 7 T ] 4 .2 .Q .3 . A . K 10 Flush & Inside Straight [K J ] [A 2 T ] Any Q.4 2 One Overcard [A 4 ] [6 2 J ] A .
Flop shows [A K 5]. you really only have 6 outs for a nut straight draw. Let's say that you are chasing an open ended straight draw with two of one suit on the table.2 outs) instead of 17 (8 outs + 9 outs). in essence. 3 total outs. you have to look at what will happen if a [Q ] drops. The true number of outs is actually 15 (8 outs + 9 outs . You need both a [J] and [Q] for a straight. because the board will then show [9 T J Q ]. When calculating outs. 8 total outs. 4 total outs. Flush Draw: Having two cards to a suit with two suits already on the flop. But. If you know for sure that someone else is holding a spade. you would normally have 8 total outs to hit your straight. Open Straight Draw: When you have two ways to complete a straight. You need any heart to make a flush. Inside Straight Draw (aka 'Gutshot'): When you have one way to complete a straight. sometimes an out for you isn't really a true out. You need a  or  to complete your straight. but this is not always possible. so you don't want to count these twice toward your straight draw and flush draw. A Nine or Ace gives you a straight (8 outs).Keyword Definitions y y y y y Backdoor: A straight or flush draw where you need two cards to help your hand out. there are 9 more spades in the deck (since there are 13 cards of each suit). in most situations you do not know what your opponents hold. then you will have to count that against your total number of outs.but not necessarily the best hand! Usually you want your outs to count toward a nut (best hand) draw. or not of the same suit) and the flop comes [9 T J ] rainbow (all of different suits). you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table . Overcard Draw: When you have a card above the flop. An out is defined as a card in the deck that helps you make your hand. it's also important not to overcount your odds. You have [5 6]. doesn't that decrease my number of outs?". You have [A 3]. This means you have 9 outs to complete your flush . In this situation. You have [J T]. You need a [A] overcard to make top pair. so you can only calculate odds with the knowledge that is available to you. You have [A K ]. To make a straight. Another more complex situation follows: Example:You hold [J 8 ]o (off-suit. The answer is yes (and no!). Flop shows [7 8 A]. Flop shows [T 2 5]. As a result. you need a [Q] or  to drop. Example: You hold [J T ] and the board shows [8 Q K ]. You need a [Q] to complete your straight. This makes a possible flush for your opponents. Flop shows [7 8 J ]. That knowledge is your pocket cards and the cards on the table. 9 total outs. If you hold [A K ] and there are two spades on the flop. So. To calculate your hand odds. while any diamond gives you the flush (9 outs).in that case. In addition to this. However. you first need to know how many outs your hand has. You have [A K]. This means that . giving you 4 outs each or a total of 8 outs. there is an [A ] and a [9 ]. An example would be a flush draw in addition to an open straight draw. there are 9 spades left in the deck. Flop shows [K 5 2]. The quick amongst you might be wondering "But what if someone else is holding a spade. However. but 2 of those outs will result in three to a suit on the table.
which gives you 4 outs. like the flipping of the River card from the Turn. giving a total of 6 outs for a top-pair draw: However. it's a bit more tricky. which will be explained after you read about pot odds. we do calculations assuming we are the only players in the game. This is calculated by figuring out the probability of your cards not hitting twice in a row and subtracting that from 100%. Even though there might not technically be 47 cards remaining. minus 2 in our hand and 3 on the flop = 47 remaining cards). to change the 24% draw into odds that we can use. How to calculate hand odds (the longer way): Once you know how to correctly count the number of outs you have for a hand.anyone holding a [K] will have made a King-high straight. it's a very scary position to be in. here is a twoovercard draw. we do the following: . the only card that can really help you is the . To illustrate. So. To change a percentage to odds. Probability can be calculated easily for a single event. in a big game. which has 3 outs for each overcard. like from the Flop to the River. while you hold the second-best Queen-high straight. While it's true that someone might not be holding the [K] (especially in a short or heads-up game). the formula is: Thus. most of the time we want to see this in hand odds. This can be calculated as shown below: The number 47 represents the remaining cards left in the deck after the flop (52 total cards. This would simply be: for two cards however. or the equivalent of a gut-shot draw. you can use that to calculate what percentage of the time you will hit your hand by the river.
there is a shortcut that makes it much easier to calculate odds: After you find the number of outs you have. we can rephrase this equation so that your brain might process it a bit more easily: Using 100 divided by the whole percentage number.How to calculate hand odds (the shorter way): Now that you've learned the proper way of calculating hand odds in Texas Hold'em. But what about ratio odds? This is still done using this formula: However. Let's try this all the way through with an example: . multiply by 4 and you will get a close estimate to the percentage of hitting that hand from the Flop.2 2. this is a much easier method of finding your percentage odds. such as 24%.7 5. We minus 1 from that and get a rough estimate of our odds at about 3:1. Multiply by 2 instead to get a percentage estimate from the Turn.6 Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House One Pair to Two Pair or Set No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards Set to Full House or Quads As you can see.6 5 4 3. we can easily see that 100/24 isequal to about 4. You can see these figures for yourself below: 4 5 6 7 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 20% 24% 28% 10 8 6.
The usefulness of hand odds and pot odds becomes very apparent when you start comparing the two. 4:1 odds means that can expect to make your draw 1 out of every 5 times. you must win this hand 1 out of 11 times in order to break even. If there is $50 in the pot and it takes $10 to call.1 =5-1 = 4:1 Again. you must win 1 out of every 5 times.You hold: A J Flop is: 5 T K Total Outs: 4 Queens (Inside Straight) + 3 Aces (Overcard) . Do you call? Your answer should be: "What are my pot odds?" If there is $15 in the pot plus a $5 bet from an opponent. think about the 1:1 odds of flipping heads or tails on a coin. As we now know.this is where pot odds come into play. you will get $110 ($100 + your $10 call). Let's say you're in a hand with a nut flush draw and it's $5 to you on the flop to call.Q or A = 5 Outs Percentage for Draw = 5 Outs × 4 = 20% Odds = (100 / 20) . so 1 out of every 2 times it'll come up heads. However. your pot odds are 100:10. with your flush draw.9 to 1. then your pot odds are 50:10 or 5:1. your odds of winning are 1 out of every 3 times! You should quickly realize that not only are you breaking even. or 10:1. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call. then you are getting 20:5 or 4:1 pot odds. If the 1 out of 5 doesn't make a ton of sense to you. You'll flip heads 50% of the time. This means that. Pot odds ratios are a very useful tool to see how often you need to win the hand to break even. the better your pot odds are. The higher the ratio. Pot odds are simply the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much money it costs to call. your hand odds for making your flush are 1. in order to break even. but when you win once. it'll cost you $110. . If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call. The thinking goes along the lines of: if you play 11 times. Pot Odds and Poker Odds: Now that you know how to calculate poker odds in terms of hand odds. in a flush draw. you're probably wondering "what am I going to need it for?" That's a good question .
if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw. the odds are 1. you can only call a 1. this will not be the case. as you will lose money in the long run. Even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times . Let's calculate the profit margin on this by theoretically playing this hand 100 times from the flop.it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1. Net Cost to Play = 100 hands * $5 to call = -$500 Pot Value = $15 + $5 bet + $5 call Odds to Win = 1. which is then checked to the river.just be sure to remember that fundamental principle of profitably playing drawing hands requires that your pot odds are greater than your hand odds. The most fundamental point to take from this is: If your Pot Odds are greater than your Hand Odds.9 to 1 pot on the flop if your opponent will let you see both the turn and river cards for one call. In this situation. . Poker Odds from the Flop to Turn and Turn to River An important note I have to make is that many players who understand Hold'em odds tend to forget is that much of the theoretical odds calculations from the flop to the river assume there is no betting on the turn. Other times. a fold or semi-bluff is your only solution.9:1 or 35% (From the flop) Total Hands Won = 100 * Odds to Win (35%) = 35 wins Net Profit = Net Cost to Play + (Total Times Won * Pot Value) = -$500 + (35 * $25) = -$500 + $875 = $375 Profit As you can see.9 to 1 that the flush will complete. Unfortunately. so you should not calculate pot odds from the flop to the river and instead calculate them one card at a time. unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break-even. because you'll be making moneyin the long run according to your hand odds and pot odds. then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush. Your ability to memorize or calculate your hand odds and pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future . So while it's true that for a flush draw. then you are making a profit in the long run.but you're making a nice profit on this in the long run.which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds . most of the time. you have a great reason to play this flush draw. but someone has just raised a large amount so that your pot odds are 1:1.
To help illustrate even further.870 (Won) .750 (Won) .$2.600 (Cost) .000 (Cost) = -$250 Profit = -$2.000 Total Won = 100 Hands * 35% Chance to Win * $50 Pot = $1. So for example.5/Hand Example of Correct Pot Odds Math You Hold: Flush Draw Flop: $30 Pot + $10 Bet You Call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds) Turn: $50 Pot + $16 Bet You Call: $16 (getting about 4 to 1 odds) Long-Term Results Over 100 Hands Cost to Play = 100 Hands * ($10 Flop Call + $16 Turn Call) = $2. we will use the flush calculation example that shows an often-used (but incorrect) way of thinking Example of Incorrect Pot Odds Math You Hold: Flush Draw Flop: $10 Pot + $10 Bet You Call: $10 (getting 2 to 1 odds) Turn: $30 Pot + $10 Bet You Call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds) Long-Term Results Over 100 Hands Cost to Play = 100 Hands * ($10 Flop Call + $10 Turn Call) = $2.600 Total Won = 100 Hands * 35% Chance to Win * $82 Pot = $2.To calculate your odds one card at a time. your odds of hitting a flush from the turn to river is 4 to 1. which means your odds of hitting a flush from the flop to the turn is 4 to 1 as well. simply use the same odds that you have going from the turn to the river.870 Total Net = $2.750 Total Net = $1.$2.
but mentioned it more so that you can recognize some players who pull these 'tricky' plays on you as well. . If you draw these hands using incorrect odds (such as flop to river odds). don't worry. but stand to make big payouts when they do hit. calling a flush draw with 2 to 1 pot odds on the flop can lead to a long term loss. implied value usually means that you can subtract one bet from your drawing odds on the turn. as it anticipates your opponents calling at least one bet. but wait! Here is where implied value comes into play.Poker Odds Knowing how to figure out your odds in Texas Hold'em is one of the most fundamental points in becoming a solid poker player. however. gut shots and two-outers (hoping to make a set with your pocket pair). you decide to fold. Implied Value Implied Value is a pretty cool concept that takes into account future betting. In some more advanced areas. Conclusion . implied value is most often used to anticipate your opponent calling on the river. there is a concept called Implied Value (which we'll get to next) that is able to help flush draws and open-ended straight draws still remain profitable even with seemingly 'bad' odds. If this poker odds page was a bit difficult to understand. So. Aha.so you are able to make this call on the turn. let's say that you have yet another flush draw and are being offered a 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn. you are anticipating 4 to 1 pot odds . Like the above section.7/Hand As you can see from these example calculations. even though you're getting 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn. So for example. This means that even though you're only getting 3 to 1 pot odds. you can likely anticipate your opponent calling you on the river if you do hit your flush draw. where you have to worry about your opponent betting on the turn. you will be severely punished in the long run. The draws that you want to worry about the most are your long shot draws: overcards. you can use implied odds as a means of making some draws that might not be profitable a majority of the time. Some examples of this would be having a tight image and drawing to a gut shot against another tight player. So in the most practical standpoint. since you anticipate your opponent calling a bet on the river. Most of the time. Knowing that you need 4 to 1 pot odds to make this a profitable call. For many reasons. Even though this is a horribly bad play (and hopefully you don't have to pay much for it). Keep playing.because he won't believe you played a gut shot draw. I do not recommend fancy implied odds plays like these. bookmark this page and come back when you need another brush-up on how to properly apply odds. if there is additional betting past the flop.= $270 Profit = $2. it can possibly be a positive play if you know your opponent will pay you off if you hit your draw .
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