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2, February 2011

A New Approach of Probabilistic Cellular Automata Using Vector Quantization Learning for Predicting Hot Mudflow Spreading Area

Kohei Arai

Department of Information Science Saga University Saga, Japan Email: arai@is.saga-u.ac.jp

Achmad Basuki

1) Department of Information Science, Saga University 2) Electronic Engineering Polytechnic Institute of Surabaya (EEPIS), Indonesia Email: basuki@eepis-its.edu

Abstract— In this letter, we propose a Cellular Automata using Vector Quantization Learning for predicting hot mudflow spreading area. The purpoe of this study is to determine inundated area in the future. Cellular Automata is an easy approach to describe the complex states of hot mudflow disaster that have some characteristics such as occurring on the urban area, levees and surface thermal changing. Furthermore, the Vector Quantization learning determines mass transport in the surrounding area in accordance with equilibrium state using clustering of landslide. Evaluating of prediction result uses ASTER/DEM and SPOT/HRV imaging. Comparison study shows that this approach obtains better results to show inundated area in this disaster.

Keywords: Probabilistic cellular automata, vector quantization, hot mudflow spreading, prediction, mass transport Introduction

I.

INTRODUCTION

Simulating hot mudflow in the plane and urban area requires understanding how the surface changing properties vary with time and space. In order to generate complex flow about interactions between natural and human made topography, we need the model of the main mechanical features of hot mud depending on landscape data. Another difficulty is to compute the simulation of hot mudflow at acceptable rates. However, they are difficult to apply in general conditions. Argentini [1] introduced a CA approach to simulate fluid dynamic with some obstacles and fluid flow parameters. This approach used basic rules in the two-dimensional spaces. Vicari [2] introduce CA approach to simulate lava flow. This approach used Newtonian fluid dynamic concept. Combination of both approach obtained a discrete approach for predicting hot mudflow [3]. This approach yielded correct location and direction of hazardous area, but the intersection area between prediction area and real area of hazardous area is around 36.44%. This approach is a deterministic approach based on Cellular Automata to estimate the areas potentially exposed to hot mudflow inundation, concentrate mudflow characteristics, combine fluid flow and lava flow properties, and neglect difficulty to describe a model of complex human made landscape data and random behavior of state changing.

The previous approach assumes that hot mudflow has similar characteristics to lava flow such as thermal changing, fluid mass transport rules and material mixing. It is difficult to describe some physical phenomena caused by complex human made landscape objects such as levees, buildings, and other environmental properties. Avolio et al. [4] have proposed an alternative Cellular using minimization differences to simulate lava flow. This approach has stochastically state changing. The key-point of this approach is easy to develop. Recently, D’Ambrossio et al. [5] and Del Negro et al. [6] have applied the stochastic approach to simulate soil erosion. This approach also uses minimization differences based on Cellular Automata for other fluid flow phenomena. The idea of the use of the stochastic approach makes the alternative approach describe complex landscape object problems on the hot mudflow disaster [7]. The problem of this idea is how to fix probability value of mass transport on each neighbor-cell. The aim of this letter is a new approach of cellular automata model for predicting hazardous area in the hot mudflow disaster. This approach uses some ideas such as minimization difference model and vector quantization to make cluster of mass transport possibility depend on altitude, height of mud and plant [8]. Because of cluster continuity by vector quantization, it looks like the statistical behavior of landscape object in the urban area. Vector Quantization determines cluster of inundated area [9] that makes flow difference in neighborhood area easy to define in probability values. A similar approach has not yet been undertaken for mudflow and lava flow in any other place, which appeared in the landslide area. However, a simple cellular automata approach is considered there. Simulation results use the landscape map using ASTER DEM, and initial parameters of hot mudflow. This paper shows some simulation result on map view in the varying time and percentage of predicting performances. We also show the comparison of predicting on inundated area and direction with the other previous approach.

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II.

OVERVIEW OF FLUID DYNAMIC CELLULAR AUTOMATA

Most numerical approaches to modeling landscape evolution simulate the physical flow such as mass transport of fluid particles, erosive effects of water discharge, infiltration and absorption by solving complex differential equations. CA is an alternative approach to simulate fluid flow using a simple approach. The current implementation is primarily based on D’Ambrossio et al. [5] because it uses "very simple approximations intended to describe complex geographical effect" and it able to offer "insight into how thermal and viscous fluid parameter affects the evolution of landscapes" despite its simplicity. The CA algorithm simulates first-order processes associated with fluvial erosion by iteratively applying a set of simplified rules to individual cells of a digital topographic grid [10]. The state represents a number of fluid particles in the topographic grid, and the subsequent movement and behavior (diffusion, and erosion) of the cell is controlled by the rules and a few parameters of the current cell and its surrounding neighbors [11]. The same rules are applied to all grid cells, i.e., there is no outside-imposed distinction between slope and channel; the model forms its own channels [11]. Figure 1 illustrates how the algorithm works. For example, fluid particles move to lower elevations, simulating fluid flow in the landslide grid. There are two varying flows; erosion and diffusion. The amount of erosion and diffusion each produces is proportional to the local slope, simulating speedier erosion of steeper slopes and lesser erosion of hard rock surfaces.

parameters such as viscosity and surface thermal changing. This approach is powerful to simulate fluid flow and easy to develop. III. PROPOSED APPROACH

A. General Characteristic of Hot Mudflow Disaster On 29 May 2006, the gas exploration operation had caused cauldron of hot mud in 6.3 km depth spray out hot mud to surrounding areas on Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia (7.530553°S; 112.709684° E) [13][14]. This disaster located at the urban area near Sidoarjo (Figure 2-top). Hot mud had spilled over 5000 m3 per-day. It increased over 170,000 m3 per-day as reported by Cyranoski [15] and over 150,000 m3 as reported by Harsaputra [16].

Figure 1. Schematic diagram showing how CA model works

Xiaoming Wei [12] introduced the simple CA approach for highly viscous fluid. Its movement is mainly a result of gravity, viscosity damping and friction. This approach uses four variables to indicate the expanding potential of a liquid cell; there is solid, liquid, amount of material and energy. Setting a certain threshold for this variable enables to control the expanding behavior of the liquid. For each liquid cell, if its energy is higher than a certain threshold, it has the potential to spread along its horizontal neighboring cells [17]. This approach uses four nearest neighbors and four second nearest neighbors. Another CA approach to simulate fluid flow uses the minimization difference approach that was introduced by Avolio [4] and D’Ambrossio [5]. This approach is one alternative approach to solve fluid dynamic without sophisticated mathematical formulation. It obtains a satisfactory model to simulate the lava flow with various

Figure 2. The location of hot mudflow disaster

Hot mudflow had an immense impact on environment, economic and human resource in the future if no countermeasure is conducted (Figure 2-bottom) [17]. Within the first two years, the mud flow disaster destroy some villages, farm lands, factories and public facilities such as schools, markets, roads, water pipes and gas pipes. Over 17,000 people had lost their houses and jobs. If facts, approximately mud blows out 150,000 m3 per-day with the assumption that contains 70% by water. This implies that water come out by 687,000 barrel a day. This situation is different from some disaster areas where the previously occurred other locations because it has overmuch mud [18].

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Although one possible solution is spillway to Porong River, it does cost and takes a long time and vast human resource. Therefore, strong demands on prediction of mudflow spreading volume and mudflow disaster area as well as on how to evacuate from the area of which the levee that was constructed to prevent mudflow spillover are there for people who are living in the disaster areas. If inundated area are predicted before the mud comes, the Indonesia government makes countermeasures to reducing the impact. This simulation uses map on February 2008 (Figure 3a) as initial map and map on August 2008 as target map (Figure 3b). This map is landscape approximation using ASTER/DEM and the height data on the some observation points. The map size is approximate 3.705km×4.036km. The red area is mud inundated area. In this simulation, mud blows from the main crater (big hole) that has a diameter around 20m [8], and mud moves to other locations depend on slope difference and mudflow parameters. The key process is mass transport that defines the amount of mud moving.

approach. The algorithm of Minimizatin Differences is as follow: (a) A is the set of cell not eliminated. Its initial value is set to the number of its neighbors. Each cell on position (i,j) has two components such as soil and mud. The height of them are gij and sij. Total height of this cell is: hij = gij + sij. There is dynamic soil uij, but it is the small portion of soil and we adjust on normal distribution of pm. (b) The average height is found for the set of A of noneliminated cells: hc + ∑ ci .hi m=

i∈ A

nA + 1

(1)

(a)

(b)

Figure 3. (a) Initial map on February 2008, (b) target map on August 2008

B. Model Definition This model is 2D CA model. It uses two-dimensional grids to describe set of cells. The state of cell S is floating point value that shows the amount of mud and soil particles. In this research, we define two-type variables of state; the amount of mud st(x,y) and the amount of soil ht(x,y). Mud is moving material. It moves from one cell to its neighbors using probability of move pmov. The other hand, the small part of mud also changes into the soil using probability of deposition pvis. The model state is as shown in Figure 4. pmov pvis

Where: hc is height of the center cell. hi is height of the non-eliminated neighbor cells. nA is number of non-eliminated neighbor cells. c is current mass-transport weighting from the learning process. (c) The cells with height larger than average height are eliminated from A. (d) Go to step (b) until no cell is to be eliminated. (e) The flows, which minimize the height differences locally, are such that the new height of the non-eliminated cell is the value of the average weighting height. ∑ ci .hi hi = A (2) nA When we used probability adjustment depend on height differences in the previous research, we use Vector Quantization learning to make cluster space of mass transport as a probability adjustment in the neighborhood area. We select some points in the previous map and the nearest points in the current map as paired point. We use standard competitive learning to determine height of points around the surrounding area.

c new = c old + τ c pair + c old

(

)

(3)

Where: c new is a new inundated point in the surrounding area. c old is an inundated point in the previous map. c pair is an inundated point in the current map. τ is a learning rate. In each point, there are some parameters that influence of mass transport on simulation process such as altitude (ground height), mud height and landslide [8]. Because of the discontinuous distribution of abrupt mass movement hazards [19], VQ obtains an alternative method to quickly assess the degree of hazard for each unit. It creates groups without considering whether or not the units in the same group are continuously distributed. Figure 5 shows the processing schema of hot mudflow spreading simulation. The learning process using vector quantization determines a cluster space that describes the probability of mass transport. The probability

st(x,y) ht(x,y)

Figure 4. Mud and soil states.

C. Model Definition In this research, we use probability Cellular Automata based on Minimization Differences [5][7] as the main

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values add some weighting under flow process in minimization differences approach.

resolution; minimization differences algorithm (48.15%65.67%) in our previous research, Avolio’s approach (45.75%63.34%) and Vicari’s approach (43.25%-60.25%). Comparison of these methods is shown in figure 8.

Figure 5. The schematic of hot mudflow spreading simulation

IV.

SIMULATION RESULTS

(a)

(b)

In this simulation, we use the current resolution of ASTER/DEM (30m×30m). The mud blow volume is around 150.000 m3 per day using Gaussian random number around this volume. The mixing particle is 70% water and 30% solid material. A. Simulation Results The simulation result is shown as Figure 6. In this figure, we show the total inundated area (Figure 6a) and the new inundated area (Figure 6b). The red area is the real inundated area, the blue area is the predicted area, and the pink area is intersection between real area and predicted area. In Figure 7a, the intersection area is above 95% that show this approach yield a good result of prediction. It is not fair because the prediction accuracy is only for new inundated area. Therefore, we compare the predicted area and the real area in new inundated area only. Figure 7b shows that the intersection area in new inundated area is 71.85%. This result is better that the previous result that uses minimization difference approach (56.44%) [7]. Figure 7 shows the comparison between this approach and other approach.

(c)

(d)

Figure 7. Comparison of (a) Vicari’s approach, (b) Avolio’s approach, (c) CA using Minimum Difference approach, (d) CA using VQ approach

Figure 8. Comparison with the other approaches

(a)

(b)

Figure 6. The simulation result: (a) total inundated area, (b) new inundated area using this approach

Figure 8 shows combination of CA approach and online clustering using vector quantization obtain better performance to predict new inundated area (54.13-69.13%) than previous methods in 3x3 Von-Newmann neighborhood system in all

B. Resolution Influences This simulation runs in some resolution. In normal size, we use ASTER/DEM map that has resolution 30m and image size 300x300 pixels. The minimum resolution is 200 pixels (map resolution is 45m). The maximum resolution is 700 pixels (map resolution is 12.9m). The prediction performance increases by increasing resolution and become stable on higher resolution as shown in Fig. 9. This figure shows there are two peak points of intersection area; in resolution 30m and in resolution 20m. They occur because the resolution of our ASTER/DEM data is 30m, and we use another data (height data on critical points) that have resolution 20m.

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Spatial Information Science, Volume XXXVIII, Part 8, pp. 237-242, Kyoto Japan 2010. H. A. Nefeslioglu, E. Sezer, C. Gokceoglu, A. S. Bozkir, and T. Y. Duman, Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility by Decision Trees in the Metropolitan Area of Istanbul, Turkey, Mathematical Problems in Engineering Volume 2010, Article ID 901095, 2001. Li-Chiu Chang, Hung-Yu Shen, Yi-Fung Wang, Jing-Yu Huang, YenTso Lin, Clustering-based hybrid inundation model for forecasting flood inundation depths, Journal of Hydrology 385 (2010) 257–268. Wei Luo, Kirk L. Duffin, Edit Peronja, Jay A. Stravers, and George M. Henry, 2003, A Web-based Interactive Landform Simulation Model (WILSIM), Computers and Geosciences, accepted Nov., 2003. Chase, CG., 1992. Fluvial land sculpting and the fractal dimension of topography. Geomorphology 5, 39-57. Department Riello Group, Legnago (Verona), Italy, February 2003. Xiaoming Wei, Wei Li and Arie Kaufman, Interactive Flowing of Highly Viscous Volumes in Virtual Environments, Proceedings of the IEEE Virtual Reality 2003 (VR’03). Mazzini, A., Svensen, H., Akhmanov, G.G., Aloisi, G., Planke, S., Malthe-Sφrenssen, A., Istadi, B., 2008, Triggering and dynamic evolution of the LUSI mud volcano, Indonesia, Eart and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 261, No. 375-388. Manfred P Hochstein, Sayogi Sudarman, Monitoring of LUSI MudVolcano - a Geo-Pressured System, Java, Indonesia, Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2010. Cyranoski, D., 2007, Muddy Waters: Hot did a mud volcano come to destroy an Indonesian Town?, Nature, Vol. 445, 22 February 2007. Harsaputra, 2007, I., Govt. weight option for battling the sludge, The Jakarta Post, 29 may 2007. Sjahroezah, A.: Environmental Impact of the hot mud flow in Sidoarjo, East Java. The SPE Luncheon Talk, 19 April 2007. Pramadihanto, D., Basuki A., Barakbah A.R., 2007, “Global Disaster Managemnet System: A Local Disaster Management Model and Knowledge Connecntion between NiCT – EEPIS Inherent Network Case Study: Sidoarjo Mud Volcano”, The First International Symposium on Universal Communication (ISUC), Kyoto, 14-15 June 2007. J.R. Ni, R.Z. Liu, Onyx W.H. Wai, Alistair G.L. Borthwick, X.D. Ge, Rapid zonation of abrupt mass movement hazard: Part I. General principles, Geomorphology 80, pp. 214–225, 2006. AUTHORS PROFILE Kohei Arai He received BS, MS and PhD degrees in 1972,74 and 82, respectively. He was with The Institute for Industrial Science and Technology of the University of Tokyo from April 1974 to December 1978 and also was with National Space Development Agency of Japan from January 1979 to March 1990.During from 1985 to 1987, he was with Canada Centre for Remote Sensing as a Post Doctral Fellow of National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.He moved to Saga University as a professor in Department of Information Science in April 1990.He was councilar for the Aeronoutics and space related technology committee of the Ministry of Science and Technology during from 1998 to 2000. He was councilar of the Saga University for 2002 and 2003. Also he was executive councilar for the Remote Sensing Sciety of Japan for 2003 to 2005. He is now Adjunct Prof. of the University of Arizona, USA since 1998. He also is Vice Chiarman of the Commission A of ICSU/COSPAR sice 2008. He wrote 26 books and published 227 journal papers. Achmad Basuki He received BS and MS degrees in 1992 and 2002 respectively. He was with Electronic Engineering Polytechnic Institute of Surabaya from April 1994. Now he studies at Department of Information Science, Saga University for PhD Degree from April 2009. His field is Disaster Spreading Modeling. He wrote 6 books in Indonesian language and published 20 publication papers for conferences and journals.

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11] Figure 9. Prediction performance for each resolution [12]

V.

CONCLUSION REMARKS

[13]

Through the simulation study with the proposed model based on Cellular Automata, we may conclude the following, (1) The using vector quantization learning in CA approach obtain much better performance to predict new inundated area in hot mudflow disaster. (2) The prediction performances depend on resolution. Increasing resolution will increase the prediction performance and become stable in the higher resolution. (3) The dangerous levee location for spillover can be found with the proposed method. (4) Cell size effect is clarified. By considering the resolution of data sources, the resolution of ASTER derived DEM (Digital Elevation Model) is 30m, the most appropriate number of cells of CA is determined with these resolutions. REFERENCES

[1] Argentini G, 2003, A first approach for a possible cellular automaton model of fluids dynamic. Computer Science - Computational Complexity, arXiv:cs/0303003v1. Vicari A, Alexis H, Del Negro C, Coltelli M, Marsella M, and Proietti C, 2007, “Modeling of the 2001 Lava Flow at Etna Volcano by a Cellular Automata Approach”, Environmental Modelling & Software 22, pp.1465-1471. Kohei Arai, and Achmad Basuki, 2010, A Cellular Automata Based Approach for Prediction of Hot Mudflow Disaster Area, Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2010, Part II, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 119129. Avolio MV, Di Gregorio S., Mantovani F., Pasuto A., Rongo R., Silvano S., and Spataro W. (2000), Simulation of the 1992 Tessina Landslide by a Cellular Automata Model and Future Hazard Scenarios, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Volume 2, Issue 1, pp.41-50. D’Ambrosio D., Di Gregorio S., Gabriele S. and Claudio R. (2001), A Cellular Automata Model for Soil Erosion by Water, Physic and Chemistry of The Earth, EGS, B 26 1 2001, pp.33-39. Ciro Del Negro, Luigi Fortuna, Alexis Herault, Annamaria Vicari (2008), Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano using the magflow cellular automata model, Bulletin of Volcanology, Volume 70, Number 7/May, 2008, pp. 805-812, Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2008 Kohei Arai, Achmad Basuki, Simulation Of Hot Mudflow Disaster With Cell Automaton And Verification With Satellite Imagery Data, International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and

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In this letter, we propose a Cellular Automata using Vector Quantization Learning for predicting hot mudflow spreading area. The purpose of this study is to determine inundated area in the future. ...

In this letter, we propose a Cellular Automata using Vector Quantization Learning for predicting hot mudflow spreading area. The purpose of this study is to determine inundated area in the future. Cellular Automata is an easy approach to describe the complex states of hot mudflow disaster that have some characteristics such as occurring on the urban area, levees and surface thermal changing. Furthermore, the Vector Quantization learning determines mass transport in the surrounding area in accordance with equilibrium state using clustering of landslide. Evaluating of prediction result uses ASTER/DEM and SPOT/HRV imaging. Comparison study shows that this approach obtains better results to show inundated area in this disaster.

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