RCA Reston 2020 Committee March 9, 2011

Tysons & Reston TOD Areas: A Quantitative Comparison

Densities in Reston’s TOD Area (Millions GSF)
100

96.0

RESTON TOD AREA DENSITIES
The RTF sub-committee reports propose densities that would allow densities to triple over an unspecified timeframe.
The new Tysons Comprehensive Plan allows a 75% increase from 47.2 to 82.4 million GSF over the next 20 years with longer term goals roughly double that density. Key information sources: • Herndon-Monroe did not quantify density. This uses the Scenario A 2030 densities for this TOD area. • Wiehle data is from the sub-committee report. • RTC & TCN data is the base case for that area as calculated in December. • The Scenario A and GMU forecasts are as given. • Tysons 2010 Comprehensive Plan.

Reston Town Center Wiehle Avenue
Herndon-Monroe
64.0 55.9
40.4 30.3 26.7

90 80 70 60

74.4
52.4

50
40 30 17.7 20 10 0 8.2 5.9

31.8
29.5 20.5 18.2 19.9

11.0

13.2

14.1

14.1

2010 Existing

GMU Mid Forecast 2030

GMU High Forecast 2030

Scenario A 2030

RTF SubComm Reports

March 9, 2011

2

Tysons & Reston TOD Area Densities (Millions of GSF)
100.0

Other Non-Res
82.4
10.8

Office

Residential

96.0
6.6

DENSITY
Tysons maximum allowable density in 2030 is 82.4 MM GSF across four station TOD areas comprising 1,800+ acres. Reston has three TOD study areas (actually 21/2) covering 1,600+ acres. Tysons total density, mix, and intensity are largely based on GMU’s high 2030 residential and employment forecasts for the area. • Even DPZ’s “Scenario A” would substantially exceed GMU’s maximum expectation for Reston TOD areas. Should Reston follow the Tysons example and align its 2030 allowable density totals with GMU’s high forecast for Reston’s TOD areas?

90.0
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0

74.4
GMU’s High Reston TOD Forecast 64.1 56.5
7.9 8.5 6.6 44.7

45.0 30.3

35.0

40.0
30.0 20.0 26.6 10.0

31.8
4.9

28.3

44.7 21.0 20.3 5.9 0.0 25.3 32.8

Tysons Corner 2030

Reston GMU Mid GMU High Scenario A Reston TOD 2010 Forecast Forecast TOD Areas 2030 2030 (RTF)

March 9, 2011

3

Tysons & Reston TOD Areas Mix of Uses (%)
Other Non-Res Office
13%

Residential
9% 7%

MIX OF USES
Tysons longer term goal mix goal is 65% nonresidential construction, a goal it is permitted to exceed in the next 20 years.

100%
13% 90% 80%

15%

14%

We have spoken of “balance” in residential and 70% non-residential development in Reston TOD areas, 60% which certainly doesn’t exist now. • The GMU high forecast would see a 60:40 50% non-residential to residential spatial allocation, the mid-range forecast is even 40% more distorted. 30% • Scenario A and the sub-committee reports would come closer to spatial balance, but at 20% higher permitted development levels.
How can we achieve better balance in development without permitting unrealistically high levels of development?
10% 0%

47% 55% 66%

47%

50%

47%

32%
19%

36%

39%

44%

47%

Tysons Corner 2030

Reston TOD 2010

GMU Mid GMU High Scenario A Reston Forecast Forecast 2030 TOD Areas 2030 2030 (RTF)

March 9, 2011

4

Tysons & Reston TOD Areas Residential & Employee Populations INTENSITY
The Reston TOD area sub-committee reports foresee— • The workforce population
• • More than doubling, and Rivaling Tysons’ 2030 workforce across four TOD areas.
171,600

Employee
216K

Residential

222K

175K

GMU’s High Reston TOD Forecast
152K
162,200 118,000 131,351

Residential population in the Reston TOD areas quintupling in the coming decades.

137K

44,333

11,800

Following the Tysons example, the RTF and County need to understand and plan for needed public infrastructure before finalizing the RTF Phase I Comprehensive Plan changes.

Tysons Corner 2030

Reston TOD 2010

GMU Mid Forecast 2030

27,067

GMU High Forecast 2030

33,733

Scenario A 2030

43,764

RTF SubComm Reports
March 9, 2011 5

59,600

Neither the Task Force nor the County have studied the public infrastructure required to accommodate this increased intensity in Reston over any timeframe. • Infrastructure planning, including phasing and implementation, were an integral feature of the Tysons study effort.

92K
110,133

79,800

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