“A STUDY ON FACTOR AFFECTING PRICE MOVEMENT IN

COMMODITY MARKET”

COMPANY PROFILE

Benz Com Consulting pvt limited is India’s first and only company focusing
exclusively on commodity futures trading, in global markets since its inception in
1999.

The company has experience with the volumes and complexities of the global
commodity markets giving it considerable expertise in this challenging area.

We provide broking and advisory services for trading in metals, grains, meat
products, soft commodities and currencies in the over the counter derivative markets
and various international exchanges.

INDUSTRY PROFILE
Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged.
These raw commodities are traded on regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are
bought and sold in standardized contracts.
This

article

focuses

on

the

history

and

current

debates

regarding

global commodity markets. It covers physical product (food, metals, and electricity) markets
but not the ways that services, including those of governments, nor investment, nor debt, can
be

seen

as

a

commodity.

Articles

on reinsurance

markets, stock

markets, bond

markets and currency markets cover those concerns separately and in more depth. One focus
of this article is the relationship between simple commodity money and the more complex
instruments offered in the commodity markets.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Exploratory Research
The study is purely based on the exploratory design. To finding the awareness
of research questions.

Descriptive Research
To know the current market

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

(North, 1990; Williamson, 1975, 1996) We use two theoretical perspectives to
understand the transformation of markets in developing countries over the past half century:
(1) the structural transformation as a regular economic process, with both demand and
technological drivers; and (2) induced technological, organizational, and institutional
changes, which respond to the impact of those drivers.

We use the “new institutional

economics” meanings of these terms, where “organization” is the structure of relations
among producers, and “institutions” are the rules of the game governing economic relations.
As economic growth proceeds and per capita incomes rise, there is a gradual but
persistent change in the product composition, or intersectoral structure, of the economy.
(Via Rybczynski’s Theorem, 1955; Hayami and Ruttan, 1971) First, there is a
decrease in the share of food output in total output. This process is driven by changing
demand, via Engels Law (showing that the share of food in total household or national
expenditure declines as income per capita increases) and technological change that drives,
and is driven by, changing factor prices.
(Gardner, 2002) Second, accompanying the smaller relative role of the food sector in
both production and consumption in all countries (despite the opportunity for international
trade to permit specialization) is the process of urbanization. In most countries, this has
involved the active migration of rural workers to urban jobs, and the difficulties of this
process have been the focus of most policy attention to the structural transformation.
Continuing efforts by rich countries to protect their agricultural sectors in the face of this

As population increases and land available per capita falls. there is a change in intrasectoral composition. The literature (such as Timmer. and saving on labour and capital) toward either extensive systems that use capital and land and save labour (e.unrelenting pressure show how deeply rooted are the problems of equilibrating incomes between rural and urban areas. With this specialization comes an increase in market size and a shift from autarchy and subsistence consumption to commercialized agriculture. In turn. meat and fish. and processing. 1 . Specialization and reduced transaction costs that come from infrastructure investments and better communication technologies bring increases in market size and economies of scale.g. reflecting Bennett’s Law1. and save capital (initial stages of intensification) followed (where capital costs decline) by production systems that save land. On the one hand. and oils and fats. 1978). and technology driven. there is consolidation and increases in firm scale over time. use labour. which is needed to feed both rural areas and rapidly growing cities.. On the other hand. Changes in relative factor scarcities during agricultural transformation induce change in the factor bias of new technologies (Binswanger and Ruttan. Argentina) or toward intensive systems that save land. In this chapter we apply that basic framework to transformation of markets for agricultural output (adding the downstream segments of the agrifood system). transportation. dairy. 1988. Pingali and Rosegrant. Green Revolution technologies in Asia). use labour. there is an increase in specialization in production and marketing. 1985) has focused on the structural transformation and its impact on the agricultural sector (the upstream segment of the agrifood system). and Hayami and Ruttan. reflecting lower costs of storage. there is an increase in specialization and gains from efficiency that translate into rising incomes. and as industry develops. (Timmer. and use capital (e. This increase is demand driven. 1997. such as fruit and vegetables. the agricultural transformation mirrors and is driven by the overall structural transformation.g. Third. and simultaneously drives it. with a decrease over time in the share of staples in total agricultural output and a concomitant increase in processed staples and consumption of non-staples. 1995) Finally. there is at first a shift from extensive technology systems (using land.

open-air spot markets) toward segmentation into traditional wholesalers and small-scale retailers. For example. the farmer might sell an undifferentiated commodity to the first-stage processor who then differentiates it into various products. 1983). 2. we expect a shift over time from commodity markets toward product markets for specific segments of consumers and uses. the adoption of modern logistics platforms by supermarket chains and large-scale food processing companies allows large-volume procurement. and oils increases (Timmer et al. for example. both supports and creates it. dairy.This literature on the structural transformation yields several hypotheses that we support below. This shift can be in any or all segments of the agrifood system.2 Product differentiation becomes important and the marketing system 1. fish. with concomitant organizational and institutional changes in the supply chain. First. especially in retail and distribution technology (such as information technology and other logistics technology change) to lower coordination costs. Following the path of specialization and increase in scale. and eventually toward further segmentation and consolidation into specialized wholesalers and “modern retailers” including supermarkets and convenience store chains. Scale effects initiate this expectation but technological change. Telecommunications allow long-range commerce. and changes in shipping and 2 3 . following the paths of specialization and product diversification. will be the ultimate drivers. the share of the food budget spent on starchy staples declines and the share to non-staples such as meat. fruits. or the farmer might differentiate products. vegetables. Bennett’s Law states that as income per capita rises. we expect a shift from atomistic merchants (petty traders. Reduction in the relative cost of capital changes the factor bias of marketing technology. Computer systems used by leading supermarket chains in most developing countries allow “efficient consumer response”3 techniques and thus inventory holdings by supermarkets can be lowered.

Of course. 2005). Farina and Reardon 2000. and (2) institutional change in the adoption of contracts and other “vertical restrictions” (Carlton and Perloff. beyond the demand and technology drivers just noted. This new marketing technology reduces transaction costs and increases market integration. changes in “mechanisms of governance” (Williamson 1975. Mainville et al. drawing on and applying various strands of the literature. and liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI). 2000) and the formulation and imposition of private standards (of quality and safety of agrifood products) as instruments of strategic market differentiation and coordination mechanisms (Reardon et al. by organizational and institutional changes. The nature of this transformation of markets is further influenced. strawberries and asparagus. Increased competition is driven by policies of market privatization and economic liberalization.storage technologies in the mid-late 1980s allowed fresh apples. including preferred supplier lists. When coupled with the technological change in the retailing and distribution sectors noted above. 2001. 1996) in agrifood marketing systems are induced. These institutional and organizational changes increase coordination and lower transaction costs in the chain. in two important dimensions: (1) organizational change including shift from spot markets (including for example traditional wholesale markets) and traditional brokers to use of specialized/dedicated wholesalers and various degrees of partial vertical integration. . These in turn lead to an influx of foreign competitors and rising sectoral concentration. 1992). The pressure to lower transaction costs and increase system flexibility to extend the scope of markets and permit a shift from commodity to product markets induces organizational change in output markets. for example. hence fastest in the regions of the first and second waves. to be shipped from the southern hemisphere to northern markets (Codron. the diffusion of these technologies is correlated with the “waves” noted above. Those changes fall into the following categories.

This ratio is then related to a comparison between today's and yesterday's trading-range midpoint values to determine the ease of movement value (EMV). A moving average is then applied to the EMV value . TOOLS USED 1. Jr.. The purpose of this quantifying is to determine the ease. Although developed primarily for commodities. magazine and news paper. or lack thereof. with which a particular issue is able to move in one direction or another. the CCI could conceivably be used to analyze stocks as well. Also I interviewed the professionals and staff of the commodity market. A lower ratio results from a narrower box and indicates easier movement. this analysis routine expands on Mr. a higher ratio results from a wider box and indicates difficulty of movement. CCI does not determine the length of cycles .the moving average period can be varied in order to make the EMV flexible as a trading tool.015xDAVG) .it is designed to detect when such cycles begin and end through the use of a statistical analysis which incorporates a moving average and a divisor reflecting both the possible and actual trading ranges. In general. Formula: CCI=(M-MAVG)/(0.DATA COLLECTION METHOD • Primary Data To watch the movement of the market price • Secondary Data For the collection of data listed the site news channel. Arms' Equivolume charting tool by quantifying the shape aspects of the plotted boxes. Arms. The ease with which an issue moves is a product of a ratio between the height (trading range) and width (volume) of the plotted box. Arms Ease of Movement Developed by Richard W. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) The CCI is a timing system that is best applied to commodity contracts which have cyclical or seasonal tendencies.

This analysis is based on the general observation that volume tends to peak before prices peak. For example. Elliott Wave Elliott wave theory goes beyond traditional charting techniques by providing an overall view of market movement that helps explain why and where certain chart patterns develop. a rise in price. is considered a bullish indicator. It is designed so that at the very least it is a coincidental indicator. The basic Elliott pattern consists of a 5 wave uptrend followed by a three wave correction. time and ratio. Each "leg" of a wave in turn consists of smaller waves. The three major aspects of wave analysis are pattern. Demand Index The Demand Index is a leading indicator which combines volume and price data in such a way as to indicate a change in price trend. coupled with rising Volume and Open Interest figures. Elliott waves can be used to successfully define where the market currently is in relation to "the big picture" but is usually to unreliable for short term trading. never a lagging one. In its simplest terms. both in the commodity and stock markets.M=1/3 (H+L+C) H=Highest price for a period L=Lowest price for a period C=Closing price for a period MAVG=N-period simple moving average of M DAVG= 1/n x SUMi=1 to n (ABS (MI-MAVG)) Demand Aggregate The Demand Aggregate is used similarly as the Demand Index but adds Open Interest as a consideration in the formula. DATAS SOYBEAN 2005 . the system confirms price trends by analyzing concurrent Volume and Open Interest trends. Open Interest. The calculation of this index is relatively complex. Interpretations are made with respect to the relationship between the movement of Volume. and Price.

500 L=556.500 C=682.000 V=20277 OI: 0 Month of: 10/31/2005 O=572.000 L=657.500 V=75994 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2006 O=592.250 V=453498 OI: 363056 Month of: 10/31/2006 O=562.000 H=549.000 L=544.750 L=607.000 L=575.750 H=613.750 C=612.750 H=597.000 H=649.500 L=509.000 C=575.000 H=576.500 C=675.250 V=952983 OI: 385597 .750 H=775.750 L=610.250 H=687.000 H=614.250 L=550.500 C=646.500 V=26633 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2005 O=515.500 H=621.000 C=644.500 C=610.500 H=644.000 C=624.000 H=691.500 C=597.000 C=569.250 V=43315 OI: 0 Month of: 05/31/2005 O=622.500 L=594.000 L=555.750 H=623.750 L=668.000 L=571.000 H=641.000 V=91417 OI: 336187 Month of: 08/31/2006 O=610.250 V=53162 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2005 O=613.750 C=615.750 L=610.500 L=498.250 V=356824 OI.000 V=64201 OI: 374449 Month of: 05/31/2006 O=623.500 V=112571 OI: 0 Month of: 07/29/2005 O=671.000 V=31619 OI: 0 Month of: 12/30/2005 O=558.500 V=56750 OI: 0 Month of: 09/30/2005 O=599.500 H=748.000 H=627.000 V=41854 OI: 0 Month of: 11/30/2005 O=576.000 H=605.250 C=557.000 L=615.000 L=554.000 C=592.000 C=630.500 V=49897 OI: 201579 Month of: 04/28/2006 O=608.000 V=68565 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2006 O=593. 349501 Month of: 09/29/2006 O=569.000 H=632.250 V=83520 OI: 0 Month of: 08/31/2005 O=693.750 L=564.000 H=650.000 V=45353 OI: 0 Month of: 06/30/2005 O=676.000 C=627.000 L=562.000 L=612.Month of: 01/31/2005 O=544.750 V=60754 OI: 374328 Month of: 06/30/2006 O=615.500 V=72544 OI: 0 Month of: 04/29/2005 O=630.250 V=49217 OI: 0 2006 Month of: 01/31/2006 O=618.000 C=510.000 C=562.000 H=618.500 C=614.000 C=702.500 L=589.750 C=607.500 C=621.000 L=604.500 C=562.500 V=78727 OI: 371095 Month of: 07/31/2006 O=637.000 H=657.000 L=555.500 H=708.250 H=623.

750 H=695.000 H=779.750 C=834.500 C=773.500 L=791.000 V=2683895 .000 C=1010.500 H=732.500 H=880.500 C=728.500 H=791.250 V=1682215 OI: 530832 Month of: 10/31/2007 O=991.750 L=722.Month of: 11/30/2006 O=643.000 V=1584020 OI: 499161 Month of: 09/28/2007 O=875.250 V=1294470 OI: 468263 Month of: 06/29/2007 O=807.750 L=872.000 L=724.500 L=642.500 C=761.500 V=803316 OI: 416682 2007 Month of: 01/31/2007 O=681.750 C=683.500 V=779343 OI: 396245 Month of: 12/29/2006 O=686.500 C=991.250 H=913.000 H=687.500 V=1004349 OI: 416905 Month of: 02/28/2007 O=719.750 C=850.500 C=685.500 H=815.000 L=808.000 V=2060737 OI: 526837 Month of: 07/31/2007 O=854.000 V=1882261 OI: 539803 Month of: 08/31/2007 O=834.500 L=789.500 H=878.250 V=1312205 OI: 481256 Month of: 03/30/2007 O=773.500 L=708.000 C=868.500 C=719.000 L=717.500 H=1016.250 V=1329812 OI: 477249 Month of: 04/30/2007 O=756.000 L=645.750 L=641.500 H=786.250 H=1017.500 L=922.000 C=806.500 V=1619461 OI: 474236 Month of: 05/31/2007 O=728.

OI: 584393 Month of: 11/30/2007 O=1009.000 L=1226.000 L=1106.500 V=2338896 OI: 460483 Month of: 06/30/2008 O=1357.000 V=2531062 OI: 391502 Month of: 09/30/2008 O=1306.500 C=1274.250 C=1197.500 V=3068296 OI: 565014 Month of: 02/29/2008 O=1275.500 C=1199.000 V=2225106 OI: 582628 2008 Month of: 01/31/2008 O=1206.250 H=1522.250 L=1275.750 V=3314197 OI: 450289 Month of: 08/29/2008 O=1395.500 C=1301.000 H=1490.000 L=1039.250 C=1395.000 H=1607.250 C=1363.250 C=1080.000 H=1402.000 L=1197.000 L=1068.500 L=1186.750 H=1663.000 V=1930755 OI: 587936 Month of: 12/31/2007 O=1083.000 H=1404.750 V=3854028 OI: 508832 Month of: 05/30/2008 O=1305.500 H=1114.250 L=1346.000 L=1189.500 C=1605.250 C=1522.500 H=1571.000 L=1354.000 V=2712606 .250 H=1320.000 V=3743354 OI: 600640 Month of: 03/31/2008 O=1519.000 H=1398.000 C=1045.250 H=1230.250 V=2949004 OI: 545643 Month of: 04/30/2008 O=1167.000 V=3795489 OI: 491517 Month of: 07/31/2008 O=1604.250 C=1332.000 L=964.

000 C=925.000 V=3104944 OI: 416386 Month of: 08/31/2009 O=1140.000 L=851.000 C=874.250 L=843.500 H=981.000 H=1073.750 H=1066.000 V=2034594 OI: 316559 Month of: 12/31/2008 O=879.000 H=1265.000 V=3815104 OI: 365049 Month of: 05/29/2009 O=1068.000 C=1070.250 H=976.250 C=972.OI: 367687 Month of: 10/31/2008 O=1054.500 L=953.750 H=972.000 C=952.250 C=883.250 C=1184.000 L=835.250 L=1150.750 C=1100.500 H=1241.000 V=2878802 OI: 3 01987 Month of: 02/27/2009 O=972.250 V=3634055 OI: 461212 Month of: 07/31/2009 O=1228.250 H=1200.000 L=943.000 V=2794487 OI: 421708 Month of: 06/30/2009 O=1186.000 V=2754921 OI: 297329 Month of: 04/30/2009 O=949.000 H=1291.000 V=2629496 .500 L=970.500 H=1019.750 C=980.500 C=1226.500 V=3040404 OI: 319227 Month of: 03/31/2009 O=869.750 L=1061.000 L=825.250 L=976.250 C=1134.250 L=776.000 H=1046.250 V=2750918 OI: 308612 2009 Month of: 01/30/2009 O=965.250 V=3839343 OI: 351880 Month of: 11/28/2008 O=922.

500 L=921.500 H=1054.000 V=3005117 OI: 373949 Month of: 03/31/2010 O=954.000 C=948.750 L=943.750 C=978.500 V=3125250 OI: 391803 Month of: 05/31/2010 O=988.250 H=977.000 C=1060.000 H=1114.250 C=1052.000 H=1009.500 C=989.750 H=1028.250 H=973.000 V=4244804 OI: 466349 Month of: 11/30/2009 O=968.000 L=926.250 L=945.500 C=927.500 L=913.000 H=1065.500 H=1069.000 C=951.500 V=2923187 OI: 420448 Month of: 12/31/2009 O=1058.000 L=878.000 L=927.500 C=937.750 C=941.750 L=900.500 V=2881850 OI: 405317 Month of: 07/30/2010 O=948.500 L=984.750 C=914.000 V=2577741 OI: 432844 Month of: 10/30/2009 O=924.500 C=1039.500 V=2234912 .500 H=1078.000 V=2794003 OI: 364017 Month of: 04/30/2010 O=940.250 H=978.000 V=2375132 OI: 363877 Month of: 02/26/2010 O=915.500 L=932.750 V=3499280 OI: 430528 2010 Month of: 01/29/2010 O=1043.OI: 406349 Month of: 09/30/2009 O=1100.750 V=1928891 OI: 373652 Month of: 06/30/2010 O=939.250 H=992.250 L=901.

750 V=11070 OI: 0 .500 H=335.250 V=26466 OI: 0 Month of: 07/29/2005 O=333.750 L=1175.750 H=1080.000 C=1226.500 C=335.250 L=317.500 H=1236.000 C=337.500 H=334.000 H=352.000 V=20176 OI: 0 Month of: 04/29/2005 O=331.250 C=1393.500 L=309.750 L=319.250 C=1243.000 C=323.500 L=317.000 L=309.000 V=15067 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2005 O=342.500 L=1240.500 H=310.750 L=303.750 H=1144.250 H=1337.250 C=335.500 V=7148 OI: 0 Month of: 10/31/2005 O=346.250 H=338.250 H=348.250 C=1008.750 V=7392 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2005 O=291.750 C=328.750 V=3477472 OI: 503584 WHEAT 2005 Month of: 01/31/2005 O=307.000 V=3095350 OI: 511648 Month of: 12/31/2010 O=1243.OI: 363841 Month of: 08/31/2010 O=1051.250 C=289.000 H=370.500 C=338.500 C=1106.000 V=2346083 OI: 449509 Month of: 09/30/2010 O=1008.250 L=288.750 C=333.250 V=17189 OI: 0 Month of: 09/30/2005 O=318.000 H=342.000 H=342.750 L=288.750 V=15989 OI: 0 Month of: 06/30/2005 O=330.000 H=1394.000 L=999.000 V=21962 OI: 0 Month of: 08/31/2005 O=328.500 L=324.000 L=994.000 L=331.000 C=317.250 V=21236 OI: 0 Month of: 05/31/2005 O=325.750 L=1042.750 V=2241149 OI: 454939 Month of: 10/29/2010 O=1105.500 H=350.750 C=333.000 V=4004764 OI: 490164 Month of: 11/30/2010 O=1230.

500 V=15187 OI: 0 Month of: 12/30/2005 O=320.000 L=406.000 C=436.250 C=345.500 H=330.000 V=363591 OI: 459932 Month of: 09/29/2006 O=439.500 L=322.500 L=351.000 C=400.000 H=387.500 V=38991 OI: 385692 Month of: 05/31/2006 O=406.500 V=16097 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2006 O=343.000 H=347.500 V=59012 OI: 491357 Month of: 07/31/2006 O=433.000 C=431.000 C=503.500 V=62189 OI: 460122 Month of: 06/30/2006 O=439.250 H=345.250 V=43696 OI: 216665 Month of: 04/28/2006 O=397.000 H=465.000 L=453.000 C=439.000 L=419.750 H=404.000 V=14541 OI: 0 2006 Month of: 01/31/2006 O=340.750 V=53716 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2006 O=380.500 L=297.000 V=411092 OI: 456060 Month of: 10/31/2006 O=459.500 C=404.250 C=386.750 H=448.250 V=47569 OI: 473086 Month of: 08/31/2006 O=432.000 V=626941 .250 H=560.000 C=458.750 H=453.Month of: 11/30/2005 O=317.000 L=393.000 H=474.000 C=438.250 H=421.500 L=408.750 H=442.000 L=395.750 L=307.000 L=406.000 C=316.500 C=336.000 L=338.

500 V=694826 OI: 453036 Month of: 02/28/2007 O=467.750 C=474.750 L=412.250 H=664.000 V=1433538 OI: 383472 Month of: 07/31/2007 O=583.250 L=447.750 L=468.500 C=501.250 L=432.500 C=582.000 V=1170994 OI: 411204 Month of: 08/31/2007 O=630.OI: 477208 Month of: 11/30/2006 O=504.000 L=447.000 H=961.000 V=368224 OI: 427120 2007 Month of: 01/31/2007 O=498.000 V=791315 OI: 363652 Month of: 06/29/2007 O=517.500 V=645815 OI: 434789 Month of: 12/29/2006 O=522.000 C=517.000 L=562.000 V=1493278 OI: 405592 Month of: 09/28/2007 O=784.500 L=620.250 H=793.250 C=438.500 L=783.500 L=485.500 V=778118 OI: 442284 Month of: 03/30/2007 O=474.250 H=537.250 C=939.750 H=519.500 V=1308222 OI: 378276 Month of: 05/31/2007 O=480.750 L=514.500 H=524.500 H=633.500 H=494.000 C=521.000 C=485.000 V=1078468 .750 L=478.000 C=767.500 C=630.750 C=467.500 H=523.250 H=474.000 H=499.000 V=678481 OI: 405783 Month of: 04/30/2007 O=433.

500 L=933.000 L=929.250 C=787.250 C=808.000 H=1298.750 V=1392984 OI: 333001 Month of: 08/29/2008 O=784.000 L=878.250 H=959.000 H=892.500 C=929.250 H=824.500 L=784.750 L=745.000 L=740.250 V=1569111 OI: 376105 Month of: 05/30/2008 O=792.000 H=985.500 V=1776021 OI: 443619 Month of: 02/29/2008 O=934.000 C=929.000 L=790.500 H=993.750 C=867.000 C=783.250 V=2120342 .000 H=877.000 V=1355633 OI: 400934 Month of: 04/30/2008 O=929.000 V=2574804 OI: 441681 Month of: 03/31/2008 O=1078.000 V=1377097 OI: 408545 Month of: 11/30/2007 O=811.500 V=1134880 OI: 363121 Month of: 06/30/2008 O=759.500 H=932.500 L=730.500 H=952.000 H=1334.750 C=843.OI: 380653 Month of: 10/31/2007 O=953.250 C=885.500 V=2201618 OI: 359734 Month of: 07/31/2008 O=843.000 V=1081108 OI: 423248 2008 Month of: 01/31/2008 O=892.500 L=845.750 H=1009.500 L=775.000 C=779.750 C=761.000 V=1730678 OI: 413981 Month of: 12/31/2007 O=865.250 L=746.500 C=1073.

750 L=496.250 L=524.500 C=637.750 H=572.000 L=495.500 C=680.750 H=587.000 V=1260365 OI: 295529 Month of: 10/31/2008 O=683.750 C=511.750 L=500.500 V=1677084 OI: 285066 Month of: 12/31/2008 O=541.250 V=1365859 OI: 304350 Month of: 06/30/2009 O=636.OI: 331799 Month of: 09/30/2008 O=770.750 V=1273658 OI: 294020 Month of: 04/30/2009 O=527.250 L=548.750 L=483.000 H=553.500 C=528.250 H=646.000 C=542.000 H=563.000 V=965690 OI: 270366 Month of: 02/27/2009 O=568.250 C=568.000 C=610.000 H=577.750 H=616.750 H=677.000 C=532.750 H=646.250 L=496.500 V=1542536 OI: 298911 Month of: 03/31/2009 O=508.250 V=1400407 .250 V=1817152 OI: 312331 Month of: 05/29/2009 O=524.750 V=979343 OI: 251844 2009 Month of: 01/30/2009 O=606.250 V=2428227 OI: 338644 Month of: 07/31/2009 O=517.000 H=770.500 C=510.000 L=504.250 V=1178457 OI: 280054 Month of: 11/28/2008 O=538.000 L=662.750 C=524.000 L=489.000 L=455.500 C=536.250 H=690.

500 L=453.000 H=576.750 H=477.500 V=1117556 OI: 322868 Month of: 10/30/2009 O=452.000 L=473.250 C=494.000 H=509.500 L=487.750 H=557.000 V=2003170 OI: 330373 Month of: 09/30/2009 O=471.000 C=491.500 H=506.000 C=541.250 L=425.000 H=583.500 V=1632462 OI: 342794 Month of: 03/31/2010 O=508.500 V=943385 OI: 323184 2010 Month of: 01/29/2010 O=544.000 H=513.000 L=450.250 C=457.750 C=567.250 V=1541245 OI: 333798 Month of: 11/30/2009 O=490.750 L=439.500 L=447.250 L=511.OI: 319467 Month of: 08/31/2009 O=531.250 C=457.500 C=506.750 V=1830393 OI: 394588 Month of: 05/31/2010 O=493.000 H=481.000 H=574.000 V=1086888 OI: 310282 Month of: 02/26/2010 O=476.500 C=471.500 V=1957150 OI: 339555 Month of: 12/31/2009 O=563.500 H=502.000 L=466.500 C=464.500 V=1279987 OI: 393047 Month of: 04/30/2010 O=452.750 V=2574465 .750 V=1420508 OI: 447663 Month of: 06/30/2010 O=457.250 L=456.000 C=450.000 C=474.500 L=425.750 H=575.

000 C=221.000 C=674.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 06/30/2005 O=226.250 H=757.500 C=717.000 H=237.000 L=195.250 H=663.000 C=661.000 H=229.500 V=2224624 OI: 412792 Month of: 08/31/2010 O=660.000 H=739.250 V=2481390 OI: 511426 Month of: 12/31/2010 O=653.000 C=195.750 L=617.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 05/31/2005 O=205.000 L=195.500 C=794.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 04/29/2005 O=210.000 L=645.250 V=1334547 OI: 440139 CORN 2005 Month of: 01/31/2005 O=203.000 H=227.000 L=204.OI: 471734 Month of: 07/30/2010 O=464.250 L=650.750 L=643.000 C=232.000 L=651.000 V=0 OI: 0 .000 H=208.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2005 O=195.000 H=214.000 L=194.000 C=211.500 H=760.000 C=204.000 L=461.000 H=211.000 L=204.500 V=3287717 OI: 483924 Month of: 09/30/2010 O=654.000 V=1617256 OI: 490663 Month of: 10/29/2010 O=674.000 H=806.250 V=1564775 OI: 496862 Month of: 11/30/2010 O=724.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2005 O=210.000 C=210.750 C=650.000 C=652.000 H=841.000 L=210.

250 C=275.750 C=287.000 C=269.000 L=215.000 H=263.500 L=248.000 L=265.000 H=220.000 L=203.000 C=227.000 H=197.000 L=272.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 08/31/2005 O=238.750 V=117591 OI: 1183042 Month of: 05/31/2006 O=279.000 L=212.500 H=293.500 L=250.000 H=208.000 H=239.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 11/30/2005 O=197.500 C=272.000 L=271.250 V=1498004 OI: 1303476 .000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2006 O=218.750 V=159873 OI: 1282078 Month of: 06/30/2006 O=287.000 C=276.000 L=185.000 C=203.000 H=210.750 H=284.000 H=279.750 C=280.000 L=197.Month of: 07/29/2005 O=233.000 L=189.000 H=276.500 V=61337 OI: 927720 Mo nth of: 04/28/2006 O=272.500 L=219.000 C=218.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 09/30/2005 O=203.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 10/31/2005 O=205.000 C=189.750 V=253451 OI: 1358807 Month of: 08/31/2006 O=270.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2006 O=228.000 H=227.000 H=293.000 H=216.500 H=280.750 V=1105021 OI: 1348220 Month of: 09/29/2006 O=262.000 V=0 OI: 0 2006 Month of: 01/31/2006 O=215.000 L=198.000 C=215.000 C=205.000 V=208219 OI: 1327418 Month of: 07/31/2006 O=274.000 C=197.750 L=259.000 H=297.000 C=262.000 C=236.000 V=0 OI: 0 Month of: 12/30/2005 O=190.000 L=204.

750 V=3120948 OI: 1215673 Month of: 08/31/2007 O=327.250 H=420.500 V=2925452 OI: 1406637 Month of: 12/29/2006 O=389.250 H=437.500 C=325.250 V=3207206 OI: 1260694 Month of: 06/29/2007 O=390.500 L=334.500 C=390.750 L=343.500 C=404.250 C=329.750 H=392.500 C=334.250 L=343.750 H=395.250 H=346.500 C=374.250 L=391.000 V=3176720 OI: 1446800 Month of: 02/28/2007 O=404.500 C=425.000 V=3072081 OI: 1136357 .500 L=374.250 V=2927109 OI: 1501214 Month of: 03/30/2007 O=425.500 C=390.000 H=348.750 L=323.250 L=308.000 H=353.500 H=393.500 L=352.750 H=428.750 V=1977899 OI: 1314145 Month of: 11/30/2006 O=334.Month of: 10/31/2006 O=276.000 C=390.500 C=324.000 H=428.000 V=4146743 OI: 1352011 Month of: 05/31/2007 O=364.500 V=4057003 OI: 1186016 Month of: 07/31/2007 O=330.000 L=362.000 C=358.500 V=3263863 OI: 1429844 Month of: 04/30/2007 O=357.000 H=385.000 L=309.250 V=1444962 OI: 1384644 2007 Month of: 01/31/2007 O=389.250 L=275.

500 C=384.000 L=595.000 C=501.000 H=751.750 L=491.000 H=627.250 H=519.500 V=5770042 OI: 1283866 .250 C=600.000 H=765.250 V=3837181 OI: 1384858 Month of: 02/29/2008 O=503.000 L=366.000 L=382.250 V=4994051 OI: 1412031 Month of: 06/30/2008 O=597.Month of: 09/28/2007 O=327.500 L=543.750 C=724.500 V=3521585 OI: 1202996 Month of: 12/31/2007 O=383.000 H=588.250 C=455.000 H=547.000 C=599.000 V=5777015 OI: 1466769 Month of: 03/31/2008 O=546.000 L=561.000 L=503.500 H=389.000 V=2345362 OI: 1112487 Month of: 10/31/2007 O=373.500 H=394.250 C=567.000 C=375.750 C=373.750 V=7723099 OI: 1398971 Month of: 07/31/2008 O=722.500 V=2554440 OI: 1165974 Month of: 11/30/2007 O=375.000 C=546.750 H=457.250 L=456.000 L=335.500 H=616.000 H=380.250 V=6609685 OI: 1448015 Month of: 05/30/2008 O=602.000 L=572.750 C=587.250 V=4330773 OI: 1424797 Month of: 04/30/2008 O=570.500 V=2418911 OI: 1212609 2008 Month of: 01/31/2008 O=456.500 L=319.

000 L=390.000 H=500.500 C=487.500 L=360.750 L=485.250 V=5137137 OI: 1173321 Month of: 09/30/2008 O=560.250 C=568.500 V=4627891 OI: 972497 Month of: 12/31/2008 O=350.000 C=401.500 C=396.Month of: 08/29/2008 O=589.000 L=336.000 C=350.250 V=4887306 OI: 831891 Month of: 05/29/2009 O=395.000 C=436.000 H=423.500 V=4111748 OI: 1054663 Month of: 10/31/2008 O=494.000 L=358.750 V=5979538 OI: 980814 .750 L=290.000 V=3517660 OI: 825467 2009 Month of: 01/30/2009 O=404.250 H=450.500 H=407.000 L=342.000 L=337.250 H=579.000 L=364.750 C=347.000 H=429.750 L=485.750 V=4732140 OI: 807842 Month of: 03/31/2009 O=350.000 H=422.000 C=407.000 L=337.750 V=3996660 OI: 775136 Month of: 04/30/2009 O=401.000 V=3280898 OI: 813591 Month of: 02/27/2009 O=378.500 V=4788651 OI: 1000103 Month of: 11/28/2008 O=398.000 H=406.750 C=379.000 H=437.250 V=4446321 OI: 868618 Month of: 06/30/2009 O=434.500 C=349.000 H=608.250 C=404.000 H=383.

750 H=426.250 V=4784364 OI: 869961 Month of: 09/30/2009 O=325.000 V=3504068 OI: 857154 Month of: 10/30/2009 O=341.500 L=327.000 L=347.000 C=339.000 H=369.250 V=5825998 OI: 953887 Month of: 05/31/2010 O=366.000 V=4512540 OI: 886892 Month of: 11/30/2009 O=362.500 C=359.000 L=304.000 L=304.500 V=3481684 OI: 902404 Month of: 02/26/2010 O=356.750 H=418.250 C=402.250 H=413.750 L=296.750 C=344.000 V=4493043 OI: 913587 Month of: 03/31/2010 O=378.250 H=380.750 L=363.000 H=409.250 C=356.500 C=366.250 C=326.500 C=366.500 V=5153002 OI: 902576 Month of: 08/31/2009 O=342.750 C=414.250 H=370.250 L=355.Month of: 07/31/2009 O=346.000 L=343.000 L=344.000 L=353.750 V=5622919 OI: 958767 Month of: 12/31/2009 O=400.000 H=347.000 H=379.500 L=359.000 H=365.000 V=3779470 OI: 935044 Month of: 04/30/2010 O=345.500 C=378.500 V=3305963 OI: 886228 2010 Month of: 01/29/2010 O=415.250 C=345.000 H=381.000 V=3726496 OI: 963262 .

750 L=423.500 C=169.750 H=367.000 V=6317850 OI: 1157174 Month of: 11/30/2010 O=585.000 C=629.750 H=156.000 C=169.000 L=454.750 L=351.000 L=139.250 C=530.500 C=161.250 V=5942573 OI: 1047466 Month of: 07/30/2010 O=354.250 L=324.750 V=5692692 OI: 1145127 Month of: 10/29/2010 O=494.750 H=528.250 C=582.000 H=605.250 H=170.000 L=142.500 H=173.000 V=7954475 OI: 1325457 Month of: 12/31/2010 O=530.500 H=429.000 V=303 OI: 3858 Month of: 05/31/2005 O=141.500 H=176.250 C=495.000 L=506.500 V=237 OI: 0 Month of: 04/29/2005 O=161.000 C=171.000 C=142.500 C=392.000 H=397.Month of: 06/30/2010 O=358.500 L=385.500 V=6666299 OI: 1147424 Month of: 09/30/2010 O=424.000 V=386 OI: 7555 Month of: 06/30/2005 O=135.000 H=141.000 C=139.250 L=148.000 V=271 OI: 6760 .500 H=182.500 L=131.250 C=424.000 V=3678281 OI: 1173620 OATS 2005 Month of: 01/31/2005 O=156.000 L=156.750 V=155 OI: 0 Month of: 02/28/2005 O=167.000 L=529.750 H=588.000 C=150.000 V=348 OI: 7371 Month of: 07/29/2005 O=139.750 H=630.000 L=156.500 H=175.500 V=122 OI: 0 Month of: 03/31/2005 O=161.250 L=135.500 C=354.750 V=4082562 OI: 890734 Month of: 08/31/2010 O=391.

000 L=192.750 L=184.500 C=162.000 L=148.000 L=251.000 H=217.500 C=269.500 H=215.500 C=271.000 L=196.000 C=183.250 C=195.500 L=246.000 H=184.250 C=179.000 C=192.000 C=151.750 V=126 OI: 10901 Month of: 04/28/2006 O=169.000 C=205.000 H=289.500 C=257.000 C=213.750 L=244.500 H=186.500 H=202.750 H=166.500 V=12932 OI: 19257 Month of: 04/30/2007 O=275.000 H=183.500 C=193.000 V=271 OI: 11077 Month of: 03/31/2006 O=185.750 H=280.000 V=17246 OI: 19414 .750 V=109 OI: 6722 Month of: 11/30/2005 O=159.500 C=261.000 C=169.000 H=253.500 C=154.000 L=169.250 H=279.000 C=253.000 V=12885 OI: 18471 Month of: 03/30/2007 O=252.000 L=185.500 H=261.000 H=209.000 H=199.000 V=305 OI: 14095 Month of: 07/31/2006 O=206.000 V=5103 OI: 11124 Month of: 10/31/2006 O=216.000 L=199.000 C=198.000 H=302.000 V=215 OI: 10943 Month of: 05/31/2006 O=186.500 L=166.000 V=158 OI: 7383 Month of: 12/30/2005 O=174.000 L=145.000 H=203.500 C=199.000 V=676 OI: 13945 Month of: 08/31/2006 O=204.000 H=211.000 H=173.500 V=147 OI: 8500 2006 Month of: 01/31/2006 O=195.000 L=190.000 V=2636 OI: 11587 Month of: 09/29/2006 O=198.000 V=127 OI: 5798 Month of: 10/31/2005 O=162.000 V=179 OI: 6449 Month of: 09/30/2005 O=155.000 L=185.500 H=162.000 L=158.000 H=287.500 C=276.000 C=193.Month of: 08/31/2005 O=162.000 V=308 OI: 8435 Month of: 02/28/2006 O=191.000 L=238.000 V=10610 OI: 14748 Month of: 12/29/2006 O=269.750 L=255.250 V=8212 OI: 16111 Month of: 02/28/2007 O=257.000 L=148.000 L=214.000 H=204.000 V=337 OI: 13412 Month of: 06/30/2006 O=196.000 L=143.750 L=237.000 V=5506 OI: 13863 2007 Month of: 01/31/2007 O=271.000 V=6026 OI: 13514 Month of: 11/30/2006 O=246.000 C=245.

250 V=34493 OI: 13682 Month of: 02/29/2008 O=329.500 V=14874 OI: 17098 Month of: 07/31/2007 O=273.500 V=28740 OI: 15861 Month of: 08/29/2008 O=381.250 C=345.750 L=219.000 L=267.750 L=352.000 C=231.750 V=11551 OI: 10910 2008 Month of: 01/31/2008 O=306.250 V=45634 OI: 14773 Month of: 04/30/2008 O=368.000 H=314.000 V=39398 OI: 15974 Month of: 06/30/2008 O=380.750 L=248.000 C=201.Month of: 05/31/2007 O=262.000 V=20874 OI: 14763 Month of: 10/31/2008 O=317.250 V=34430 OI: 15046 Month of: 09/30/2008 O=336.000 C=242.000 C=261.250 L=184.750 H=290.000 H=405.500 L=260.000 V=53670 OI: 16820 Month of: 07/31/2008 O=444.750 H=300.000 L=196.000 V=18796 OI: 16605 .250 C=444.500 H=238.500 L=334.000 V=61392 OI: 14815 Month of: 03/31/2008 O=426.500 V=23113 OI: 13222 Month of: 12/31/2007 O=269.000 V=9674 OI: 18147 Month of: 06/29/2007 O=284.500 C=382.000 C=289.000 H=264.000 H=438.000 L=191.000 L=255.000 H=389.500 C=210.750 H=297.750 L=323.000 H=289.000 V=21331 OI: 16909 2009 Month of: 01/30/2009 O=213.750 C=287.500 V=33937 OI: 15529 Month of: 11/28/2008 O=237.000 C=306.750 L=336.500 H=250.750 H=324.000 C=205.750 L=235.750 V=11918 OI: 14323 Month of: 10/31/2007 O=286.250 H=351.000 L=235.500 C=377.000 C=371.000 C=422.000 L=303.500 H=286.000 H=300.000 C=269.500 V=25688 OI: 15150 Month of: 12/31/2008 O=194.000 C=281.000 H=350.500 H=234.000 C=377.250 H=423.000 H=444.000 L=376.000 L=375.000 L=313.750 L=264.000 V=10471 OI: 13547 Month of: 09/28/2007 O=257.750 V=12492 OI: 14412 Month of: 11/30/2007 O=286.000 V=49594 OI: 15114 Month of: 05/30/2008 O=378.750 C=329.500 H=414.000 C=278.500 L=372.500 C=316.750 L=251.250 V=13408 OI: 14944 Month of: 08/31/2007 O=261.000 H=458.

000 V=25140 OI: 13915 Month of: 08/31/2009 O=199.250 H=220.000 C=184.000 L=192.750 V=46015 OI: 14495 Month of: 07/31/2009 O=216.000 C=221.500 L=186.500 H=225.750 H=264.000 L=172.500 V=36750 OI: 17011 Month of: 03/31/2009 O=176.000 L=216.250 V=32051 OI: 14399 Month of: 05/31/2010 O=208.750 H=368.000 L=216.250 L=238.000 C=193.500 L=174.000 L=162.000 L=242.750 V=30705 OI: 10234 Month of: 09/30/2010 O=273.000 H=211.000 V=37082 OI: 15238 Month of: 05/29/2009 O=194.000 L=193.750 C=233.500 C=255.000 L=195.000 L=248.000 V=20919 OI: 10960 2010 Month of: 01/29/2010 O=276.000 C=210.000 V=40975 OI: 13857 .000 L=188.500 L=190.750 V=28272 OI: 13745 Month of: 09/30/2009 O=212.000 C=277.750 H=224.500 V=32908 OI: 12989 Month of: 12/31/2009 O=254.250 H=203.250 C=368.Month of: 02/27/2009 O=204.750 L=333.500 C=271.000 V=21949 OI: 14456 Month of: 04/30/2009 O=194.000 V=23847 OI: 8027 Month of: 08/31/2010 O=268.500 C=214.750 H=225.000 V=23601 OI: 13774 Month of: 10/30/2009 O=233.250 L=218.500 L=188.000 H=273.750 C=208.000 V=19866 OI: 14684 Month of: 06/30/2010 O=193.000 H=238.500 C=205.000 V=25278 OI: 13004 Month of: 04/30/2010 O=211.250 H=280.000 H=202.000 V=33468 OI: 13234 Month of: 11/30/2010 O=370.000 V=31715 OI: 12039 Month of: 10/29/2010 O=341.000 H=268.000 C=254.500 H=297.000 H=238.500 V=32900 OI: 13609 Month of: 11/30/2009 O=253.000 L=330.000 H=281.250 C=191.000 V=26830 OI: 9984 Month of: 02/26/2010 O=225.250 H=386.000 V=53833 OI: 15384 Month of: 07/30/2010 O=258.000 H=388.500 L=205.000 C=228.250 C=265.250 C=198.250 H=260.000 V=29075 OI: 11043 Month of: 03/31/2010 O=221.000 H=281.750 C=342.250 C=254.250 C=251.000 V=28178 OI: 13431 Month of: 06/30/2009 O=249.000 C=340.000 H=205.500 H=274.500 L=267.000 C=194.250 L=257.000 L=194.

000 V=25605 OI: 12111 OBJECTIVES • To identify the factor affecting grains price movement in commodity market. • To identify the future movement of grains in commodity market.Month of: 12/31/2010 O=339.750 H=407.500 L=335.000 C=394. • To observe the commodity product fluctuation during economic crises . • To identify the reaction in the price fluctuation in commodity market.