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Equity valuation & Analysis By Bhargav Buddhadev MMS Finance Roll Number 9

Serial Number 1 2 3 4 5 6

7

8 9

Particulars Introduction Active Investment styles Sub categories of active equity management styles Equity valuation models Valuation models for cyclical stocks Models based on price ratio analysis Price equity ratio Price cash flow ratio Price sales ratio Price book ratio Valuation equations Random valuation model Intrinsic value Market anomaly returns Capital asset pricing model Strategies Bibliography

Page number 1 2 3 6 13 18 25 26 26 27 28 37 38 40 43

Page 1 of 44

Equity Valuation and Analysis

Introduction

The security analyst when faced with the problem of a buy or sell decision must first evaluate the past performance of the security, and then coupled with his personal experience predict the future performance of the security and the relative market position. The amount of data available to him far exceeds his potential and therefore he has to base his predictions on several basic attributes and modify the results in the light of intuitive beliefs. While the process may be successful, its intuitive segments make the evaluation of errors and improvements of this technique very difficult, if not impossible.

Equity valuation is difficult in comparison to valuation of bonds and preference shares. This is because benefits are generally constant and reasonably certain. Equity on the other hand involves uncertainty. It is the size of the return and the degree of fluctuations, which in togetherness determine the values of the share of the investor. Therefore forecasting abilities of the analyst are more crucial in the equity analysis. Infact equity analysis is based on the notion that the stock market is not working efficiently. In other words active management is based on the notion that historical and current information is not fully and correctly reflected in the current price of the stock. Hence there exist stocks that are over valued and those that are under valued. The task of the equity manager is to decide which stocks are which and then invest accordingly. By contrast the equity manager who believes that the market is efficient tends to flow a passive strategy. With indexing being the most common form of equity strategy.

Page 2 of 44

Equity Valuation and Analysis

**Active Equity Investment Styles:
**

The primary style of active equity management style is top down and bottom up. The manager who uses top down style begins with an overall economic environment and a forecast of its nearest outlook and makes a general asset allocation decision regarding the relative attractiveness of the various sectors of the financial markets (e.g. equity, bonds, real estate, bullion etc). The manager then analyses the stock market in an attempt to identify economic sectors and the industries that stand to gain or lose fro the managers economic forecast. After identifying attractive and unattractive sectors and industries, the top down manager finally selects the portfolio of individual stocks.

The process is represented in the figure given below; Economic forecast

Financial markets

Asset allocation

Stock markets

Sector analysis

Other asset markets

Equity portfolio

Page 3 of 44

Equity Valuation and Analysis

A manager who uses bottom up equity approach de-emphasizes the significance of economic and market styles and focuses instead on the analysis of individual securities. Using financial analysis and computer screening techniques, the bottoms up manager seek out stocks that have certain characteristics that are deemed attractive (e.g. low price earning ratio, small capitalization, low analyst coverage etc)

**Sub categories of active equity management
**

Some of the major sub categories of the two major style of active equity management are listed below;

Growth managers: Growth managers can be classified as either top-down or bottom –up. The growth managers are either divided into large capitalization or small capitalization. The growth managers buy securities that are typically selling at relatively high P/E ratios, due to high earnings growth rate, with the expectation of continued high earnings growth. The portfolios are characterized by high P/E ratios, high returns, and relatively low dividend yields.

Market timers: The market timer is typically a set category of top- down investment style and comes in many varieties. The basic assumption is that he can forecast the market i.e. when it will go up or down. In the sense he market timer is not too distant than the technical analyst. The portfolio is not fully invested in

Page 4 of 44

This is an example of the relatively simple hedge. One popular hedging technique involves simultaneously purchasing a stock and put option on that stock. namely. The put option sets a floor on the amount of loss that one can make (if the stock process go down) while the potential profit (if the stock prices go up) is diminished only by the original cost of the put. For example if the economy were perceived to be on the verge of moving from recession to recovery. Group rotation managers: The group rotation manager is in the sub category of the top down management style. recession. technical and analytical skills he/she dictates. He can then select those sectors and economies that are going benefit.Equity Valuation and Analysis equities. the group rotator would begin to Page 5 of 44 . The basic idea behind this technique is that the economy goes through reasonably well-defined phases of the business cycle. These buy securities that are available at a discount to the face value and sell them at or in excess of that value. This is because they sometimes see value where many other market participants don’t. Value managers use dividend discount. The group rotator believes that he can discern the current phase of the economy and forecast as to which phase is going to evolve. expansion and credit crunch. Rather he/she moves in and out of the market depending on the economic. recovery. They can fall into either the top down or bottoms up approach. Hedgers: The hedger seems to buy equities but also to place well-defined limits on the investor’s investment limits. Value managers: These are sometimes referred to as contrarians.

earning surplus etc. value managers have relatively low betas. low price book and P/E ratios and high dividend yields. Page 6 of 44 .Equity Valuation and Analysis purchase stocks in the appropriate sectors and specific industries that are sensitive to the pick up in the economy. the technician hopes to be able to predict the future path of the price action models P/E. In terms of characteristics. Technicians: They discern market cycles and pick up securities solely on the basis of historical price movements as they related to the projected price movements. By reading a chart and artfully discerning patterns.

If we know the cash flows that we are going to get in the future course and the interest rate then we can discount the same and get the present value. As a first step he calculates the adjusted earnings per share over the past few years and examines the stability of earnings and their Page 7 of 44 . Formula = Future value (1+I)^n Let us consider an example. it has become fashionable to apply the techniques of present value theory to the equity valuation. Under priced stocks need to be purchased and over priced stock need to be shorted? Present value estimation: It is simply the inverse of future value. Let us assume there is an investor whose cost of capital is k and decides to invest in a company. Now if the interest rate is 12% then the present value shall be 100 (1+.Equity Valuation and Analysis Equity valuation models The purpose of these models is to identify whether the stock is overpriced or under priced. Suppose we have an opportunity to receive 100 a year from now.12)^1 = 89.28 In order to develop a consistent system of security valuation theorem.

Equity Valuation and Analysis growth and on the basis of these findings and of a company’s outlook derives an estimate of the future earnings of the company. that these earnings will continue indefinitely into the future. Now we compare this valuation with the current stock price (P). What is the value of such a share to this particular investor? Given the data the value can be calculated as below. For convenience let us assume that the future earnings is E. Page 8 of 44 . E (1+k) (1+k)^2 (1+k)^t Thus in this manner the expected stream of earnings. V = E + E +…………. Some will decide to buy the equity while others will decide to sell the equity if they already sell now. capitalized at the investor’s cost of capital measures the intrinsic value of the share. This differential behaviour reflects two principal factors. Different investors can be expected to evaluate the investments differently. a) Different individuals have different cost of capital so that calculation using one discount rate may result in negative NPV while the use of other discount rate may be give a positive NPV. Now if V-P>0 then the stock is under priced therefore the investor should purchase it and if it is <0 then it is over priced and therefore the investor should sell it.

Constant growth model: In this model cash dividends are expected to grow at the constant rate. Basic model: One of the most used equity valuation model is the dividend discount model.Equity Valuation and Analysis b) Even if both investors have the same cost of capital. In its simplest form. In order to find the discounted present value of the stream of constantly rising dividends. differences in their estimates of the firm’s profitability decisions. These are several variations of the DDM because of different assumptions about the growth rate of dividend and its relationship to the discount rate used to calculate present values. so that growth is zero. the investors can use the equation of constant growth of dividends. the DDM defines the intrinsic value of a share as the present value of future dividend. and that the investor’s required rate of return is constant. Value = D1 Ke-g This equation tells us that the value of an equity share is equal to the cash dividend in time period 1 discounted by the difference between the required rates of return required by equity investors and growth rate of dividends. This model assumes that the dividend will be constant over time. In Page 9 of 44 . may result in different investment Zero growth models: The most basic of all the DDS is the zero growth model.

For example if an investor has a share whose current cash dividend at time 0 is 4. In this case the value of a firm whose growth rate of dividends varies over time can be determined by the following equation.15 = 92 Note that the current price of Rs. the constant growth rate of dividend is15% per year and the required rate of return is 20%. an investor would value a growing cash flow stream at a higher rate than a non-growing stream. other things remaining equal. This is expected since. Variable growth rate of dividend: Consider a firm grows at a faster rate for a few years and then reverts to a constant growth rate or no growth situation. the value of this share will be Value = 4(1+. but increasing competition is expected to reduce the future growth rate. Value = Do (1+gx)^t (1+k)^t Page 10 of 44 .20-. 92 is much higher than the Rs.15) . This might occur if the firm has made previous investments that produced high cash flows.20 where no growth in future cash dividends was assumed.Equity Valuation and Analysis using this equation the value of dividend anticipated in the coming year is to be taken.

Value = Do(1+gx)^t + Dn+1 (1+k)^t (k-gy) [ 1 ] (1+k)^n Page 11 of 44 .Equity Valuation and Analysis Where gx = growth rate of dividend for n years. If the growth rate of dividends is expected to grow at one rate for a period of time and then a constant growth rate of dividend. This equation can be expended any number of times. the equation model is. the ability to change growth rates allows one to value a share over the life cycle of the firm on the rates of growth change.

The company paid its first cash dividend of Rs. Solution: First we shall calculate the present value of dividends for the first 3 years.6140 9. Further the shareholders are expecting 15% rate of return.493(1+.493 SUM = Capitalization rate (3) .756 .Equity Valuation and Analysis To illustrate the use of this multiple growth rate dividend valuation method.8275 3.10)=6.5 3.658 Present value (4)=(2)*(3) 2. consider the case of this hypothetical company XYZ.0423 Page 12 of 44 .25 4.5 today and dividends are expected to grow at the rate of 30% for the next 3 years.225 5.1941 3.870 .2. Thereafter cash dividends are expected to grow at the rate of 10%.6356 Step 2 Value at the end of the 3rd year for the remaining life of the company will be. Year (1) 0 1 2 3 Dividend Do(1+gx)^t (2) 2. D3 (1+gx) = 5.

6356 +79.846 Therefore the present value is 120.2797 = 88.Equity Valuation and Analysis Therefore value at the end of the third year V3 = 6.486* .658 =79.10) = 120.2797 Thus the value of the share is 9.0423 (.9153 Page 13 of 44 .15-.

until it eventually approximates the secular growth rate for the majority of the companies in the company. the best earnings and dividend projection is probably based on a decreasing rate of growth. He spells the factors that determine the future dividend income. if a company has been experiencing an abnormally high growth rate. Page 14 of 44 . Bauman suggests that. According to him in order to make a good estimate of future dividends. For example. How long this transition period lasts depends on the company. the investor must ascertain (a) the current growth rate of dividend (b) how long will it take until the growth rate has declined to the average typical for the majority of corporations. unless there is a sufficient evidence to the contrary. product. industry. the present value concept of arriving at the stock value by discounting at an appropriate yield rate all the future cash flows. competition etc… A guide to follow is to determine the probable position of the company in its life cycle. and argues that a company with a growth rate in excess of the average shown in an industry will sooner or later finds its growth rate declining to the average shown in an industry. namely the growth rate and the growth duration. For reasons of convenience he makes an assumption in his model that the growth rate will decline by equal amounts over the span of the transitional period.Equity Valuation and Analysis Valuation models for cyclical stocks: Bauman used as well as Clendenin.

but he gives a very strong clue by showing what rates were representative of majority stock exchanges. Although he does not tell the investor how much higher future discount rate must be taken. What shall be the discount rate? Bauman offers guidelines from 6 to 10 percent depending on the risk involved. that the stock pays a regular dividend. Obviously the cyclical model is difficult to formulate even on simple configuration. That is the risk premium added to the discount rate increases with time. and it increases with time as the distant years become more and more uncertain. which point to large changes ahead. Let us assume that a stock has 4 years business cycle from trough to peak to trough. Bauman relies a lot on historical data and believes this action is justified by absence at present of any indicators.8 and P2 is 80. the present value of the stream of income at 20% is Page 15 of 44 . but it does point out the variables that must be considered. He reminds investors to be on guard constantly to recognize signs of changes.Equity Valuation and Analysis Once the investor has determined the pattern of future dividend incomes he must discount them to arrive at the present value. and that the investor is willing to trade in and out of the stock but since the risks are great he must earn a 20% rate of return rather than a 10% Now if D1 is 1 and D2 is 1. The discount rate applied to the first year’s dividend is the lowest.

8 (1+1. and a final sale at a peak in year 6. did not wish to sell short. It is obvious that this is difficult to do in practice and that the cycle might be substantially shorter than six years. then to sale at the high and a move to a say 8% savings account then to repurchase at a low.08 Therefore. But what valuation model should we follow if the speculative investor wished to continue trading in shares.Equity Valuation and Analysis Value =1 + 1.2)^2 = 57.2) (1+1. if the stock is available at lower than 57. and therefore was temporarily out of the market. V = D1 +D2+CG2 +I3 +D4 +D5 + D6+P6 (1+k) (1+k)^2 (1+k)^3 (1+k)^4 (1+k)^5 (1+k)^6 Where CG2 is the capital gain in year 2.08 then it would provide the speculative investor with a yield of over 20%. I3 and I4 are interest income and D1 . D2… are dividends. The equation covers a successful trade from the purchase of stock at the cyclical low. May be his funds were placed in the savings bank. Page 16 of 44 .

we would be surprised if the high growth company did not have a higher stock price and therefore a higher P/E ratio. where one company is a high growth company and the other is a low growth company. However the difference is usually small. which is why P/E stocks are referred to as the growth stocks. Clearly the price earning and the earnings yield are required to measure the same thing. The inverse of the p/e ratio is referred to as the earnings yield. Now consider two companies with the same current earnings per share . To see why notice that a P/E ratio is measured as a current stock price over current earnings per share. Page 17 of 44 . but it can sometimes be source of confusion. Analysts often refer to high P/E stocks as growth stocks.Equity Valuation and Analysis Model based on price ratio analysis 1. Which company should have a higher stock price. Price earning ratio The most popular ratio used to assess the value of the equity is the company’s price equity ratio abbreviated as P/E ratio. It is calculated as the ratio of the firm’s current stock price divided by the earnings per share (EPS). These entire equal. In general companies with higher expected earnings will have higher P/E ratio. the high growth company or the low growth company? The question is a no brainer. In practice earnings yield less commonly stated and used than P/E ratios. Most analysts prefer the first method of multiplying the latest quarterly earnings per share value time four. Since most companies report earnings each quarter annual earnings per share can be calculated as the most recently quarterly earnings per share times four or as the sum of the last four quarterly earnings per share figures.

This suggests that these stocks may represent good investment values. However it should be rated that the term growth stock and value stock are most justly commonly used labels. iii) A normal P/E for the market is difficult to determine. The future level of the P/E ratio can be viewed as the function of the current P/E ratios or the average P/E ratio over the same period of time. iv) v) vi) vii) Inflationary conditions tend to reduce the P/E ratios. The higher the P/E ratio the higher is the risk. An investor will be willing to pay a higher price forth-current earnings if the earnings are expected to grow at a much higher rate. and hence the term values stocks. A normal P/E ratio is established for each company but it can be compared to the market P/E to give some idea of risk. The reason is that low P/E value stocks are often viewed as cheap relative to current earnings. P/E ratios vary by the industry Higher interest rates tend to reduce the P/E ratios P/E ratios vary by the industry Page 18 of 44 . ii) The P/E ratio is a function of future expected earnings the higher the growth rate of earnings the higher will be the P/E ratio.Equity Valuation and Analysis The reason why they are referred to high growth stock is simple. The P/E ratio used in the valuation equation is influenced by i) P/E ratios for a group of companies tend to change little from one period to the next. This is true inspite of the fact that the investors are ready to pay more. Of course only time will tell whether a low P/E stock is of good value. Therefore an investor cannot expect a dramatic change in the future P/E ratios.

Therefore the greater the expected stability of the growth rates the higher the P/E ratio. How can the P/E ratio be used as guide in making an investment decision? For this the analyst is to apply various rules of thumb on company’s earnings selecting an appropriate P/E ratio to determine the value of its shares. ix) x) xi) xii) xiii) xiv) The level of P/E ratio is not an absolute one but a relative one. Speculative companies and cyclical companies tend to have a lower P/E Growth companies tend to have a higher P/E Companies with larger portion of debt tend to have a lower P/E A company that tends to pay a higher dividend tend to have a higher P/E P/E ratios can change radically and suddenly because of change in the expected growth rate of earnings. however the different companies in the same industry frequently carry different P/Es. Page 19 of 44 . This provides boundaries within which the P/E must fall and indicates whether the equity is tending to sell at the upper limits of expectation or the lower limits. Taken from the historical record of the equity in question the determination of the current equity must be followed by a standard of comparison. More weight can be given to the recent past. Industry P/E provide the guidelines. The resulting price is to be compared with current market price to assess the relative magnitude of the ratio. For this the analyst mat ascertain the median or the mean P/E for the equity as well as its range over the time.Equity Valuation and Analysis viii) An investor should examine the trend of the P/E ratio over time for each company.

The nomograph is a graphical solution to the equation. implies that the investors will apply uniform discount rates to all equity earnings and that difference Page 20 of 44 . His objectives are to answer the following questions: A) How many years of the present high growth rate are assumed by today’s market price before the growth rate of the company drops to the standard rate? B) What price earning ratio is justified given a certain growth rate which is higher than the standard rate for a certain number of years ? Ferguson takes the market price as a base and then determines what estimates of the basic factors the market makes. closer examination reveals that the use of the standard growth rate in the denominator of his equation. He then leaves the investors to decide whether these estimates are too low or too high in his judgement. Pa = (1+Ra)^n P1a Where Pa = some standard price earning ratio (1+Rb)^n P1a = growth stock price earning ratio Ra Rb = standard growth rate assumed = rate of growth assumed for growth stock Although it appears that Ferguson ignores the discount rate.Equity Valuation and Analysis Robert Ferguson presents a method of determining justifiable price earnings ratio for growth stocks as compared to the standard. Ferguson develops a nomograph which eliminates the need for complicated calculation on the part of the investor.

cold serve illustrative purpose only. Moreover.Equity Valuation and Analysis in price/ earnings ratio arise only from the differences in assumed growth rates and duration. Nicholas Molodovsky believes that any standardized selections of future periods. He stressed that in actual Page 21 of 44 . An approximate adjustment for the dividend income. An analysis based on the foregoing assumption differs ofcourse very strongly from Bausans Variable growth rate. In the last paragraph Ferguson states “We have not considered the fact that many stocks pay dividend which are an important source of profit in addition to the price appreciation. In these instances the neglect of dividends may well result in incorrect calculation. This is especially true in situations where the growth rate is of the same order of magnitude as the dividend yield. such as 10 years for instanse. useful in many instances would be to add the yield to the per share earnings growth rate and use the resultant figure in place of the growth rate” This implicitly assumes that the current market price of stock completely disregards dividend payments. That assumes evenly declining growth rates and increasing discount rates for income with longer futurity. since dividend payout is already implicitly in the standard price/earnings ratio used in his equation. this procedure would represent double counting and overstate justifiable price/earning ratios for the growth stocks. A further assumption is made implicitly that the quoted growth rate stays on the same level until period t and then drop off suddenly to a rate equivalent to the standard rate.

The nature of the industry to which a company belongs. Page 22 of 44 . Such gradual transition can be easily performed by a computer. According to him the appropriate rate will take into consideration the risks involved. which could also carry out the valuation formula’s requirements of an infinite time horizon.as well as the corporations particular characteristicsshould in reality determine both the length of the period for which the earnings are projected into the future and also the delicate process of the ‘splicing’ with an overall historical date. Depending on each individual case. According to him this later condition can be easily met by combining the compound interest formula used for complying a bond’s yield maturity with the expression of geometric progression for an infinite number of terms. In short. which are influenced by the growth of earnings or dividend expected in the future. which constitute a mathematical description of an equities habitual market. One commonly used approach is based on the multiple growth models and a view that companies typically evolve through 3 stages during their lifetime. and the expected future price. A higher discount rate will be employed whether the risk is greater and lower one when the risk is lower. such a transition may well take the form of mathematical curves with very different graduations of diminishing rates of growth. risk is a function of the variability of return.Equity Valuation and Analysis practice. projections of future earnings trends of different stock would have to be made for whatever varying period might be successfully indicated.

and its profit margins come under pressure. Expected earnings and dividend for the next five years Page 23 of 44 . Transition stage In the later years of the company’s life increased profit saturations begin to reduce its growth rate. One method involves estimating values for the following variables 1. slightly attractive returns on equity. 3. At that time. Since there are fewer investment opportunities the company begins to payout a large percentage of earnings. the company reaches a position where its new investment opportunities offer. 2. Growth stage The stage is characterized by rapidly expanding sales. higher profit margins and abnormally high growth in the EPS. on average. In implementing the multiple growth model the analyst must estimate a number of variables for each security being evaluated. Maturity stage Generally. payout ratio. Because the expected profitability of new investment opportunities is high.Equity Valuation and Analysis These stages are 1. and average return on equity stabilize for the remaining life of the company. The unusually high earnings enjoyed in this stage attract competitors leading to a gradual decline in the growth stage. the payout ratio is generally low. its earning growth rate.

“ no one approach will give satisfactory results in a wide variety of common stocks… because there are two investment reasons for owning common stock… dividend income and hope of capital appreciation if the company grows. The two resultant values are added together in order to obtain the value of equity. The combination of the earnings growth rate and payout ratio that provides the desired average return on equity for the next investment during the maturity stage. In this technique two different multipliers are computed. The dividend multiplier is based on the assumption that the value of a dividend is a function of the yield on a higher grade. Debt + Preference as % of capital 2. He argues that. The growth rate of earnings and the payout ratio for the transition stages which is assured to be in year six. 4. etc and the following factors 1. Growth patters for the EPS and the payout ratio for the growth stage 5. 3. Thus there really is no sharp dividing line between an income stock and a growth stock. and another multiplier from another set of factors to be applied to the earnings retained in the business.that is the number of years until the company reaches the maturity stage. Jeeremy C criticizes methods of comparative valuation because they are either base don price / earnings ratio or on price dividend ratios. Debt + Preference as % of working capital Page 24 of 44 . The duration of the transition stage--. one to be applied to the dividend from one set of factors.Equity Valuation and Analysis 2. or money rate.

Page 25 of 44 . Total plow back as % of equity. Pay out in % form 4.Equity Valuation and Analysis 3.

Most analysts agree that in examining a company’s financial performance. cash flow can be more informative than the net income. even though it is actually paid for all at once. Instead of price earning ratio many analysts prefer to look at price cash flow ratio. The actual cash payments occurred when the factory was purchased. The difference between cash and earnings is often confusing largely because the way standard accounting practice defines net income. The most important exception is depreciation.Equity Valuation and Analysis Price cash flow ratio. However not all are actual cash expenses. the most famous measure is simply calculated as net income plus depreciation. Obviously this is logical. A price cash flow ratio is measured as the company’s current stock price divided by its current annual cash flow per share. standard accounting practice does not deduct the cost of the factory at all once. Instead the cost is deducted over time. so this is the one we use here. Essentially net income is measured as incomes minus expenses. When a firm acquires a long-lived asset such as new factor facility. Page 26 of 44 . however. Cash flow is usually reported in firm’s financial statement and labeled as cash flow from operations. These deductions do not represent actual cash payments. There are varieties of definitions of cash flow. In this context.

Equity Valuation and Analysis Price sales ratio An alternative view of company’s performance is provided by the price sales ratio. For this and other reasons. in principle. Price book ratio A very basic price ratio for a company is the price book ratio. They are appealing because book value represents. A price book ratio is measures as the market value of a company’s equity issued divided by the book value of the equity. Page 27 of 44 . All the above ratios discussed are commonly used to calculate the estimates of expected future prices. A ratio less than 1 indicated that the company has infact lost the value for its shareholders. A price sales ratio is calculated as the current price of the stocks divided by the current annual sales revenue per share. The stock price is an indicator of current book value. A high P/S ratio would suggest high sales growth. sometimes called the market book ratio. Multiplying a historical average price ratio by an expected future value for the price ratio denominator variable does this. book values are difficult to interpret. historical cost. while a low would suggest sluggish sales growth. but the truth is that of varied and changing accounting standards. A ratio bigger than 1 indicated that the firm has been successful in creating value for its stockholders. price book ratios may not have much information as they once did. This interpretation of this ratio seems simple enough. so a price book ratio simply measures what the equity is worth today relative to what it costs.

earnings growth rate and the expected P/E ratio in the third year. This is similar to the valuation for estimating the rate of return. and the price earning ratio expected in year 3 several approaches are given below. In random. This is done by substituting the current price for equity value and solving return by trial and error basis with the present value or the discount value being found when the present value of inflows matches the current price. return. Three variables must be estimated in the valuation equation to establish r. But instead of assuming that the 10-year rate will continue in future it is assumed that the rate is unknown but it is likely to be within the value established by the 10-year mean value and the standard deviation around the mean value of its estimate.Equity Valuation and Analysis Valuation equations for finding expected returns To get optimal risk return on an investment. Random valuation model The random valuation model begins with the premise that the next 3 years growth of earnings dividend and price will be similar to those of 10 years. along with the ten year P/E ratio. the investors are to find the expected returns. They are expected dividend growth rate. This applies to each of the variable that is to be substituted into the valuation equation to be solved for r i. Page 28 of 44 .e. The value for each variable assumes to be around the historic mean plus one standard deviation of the estimate. To solve the equation and to get the estimates of earnings growth rate. the ten-year growth rate of earnings and dividends is used.

Suppose that someone were to ask you whether it is good to help others in time of need.Equity Valuation and Analysis Intrinsic value What Is Intrinsic Value? The concept of intrinsic value has been characterized above in terms of the value that something has “in itself. but we will see that there is reason to think that there may in fact be more than one concept at issue here.” or “in its own right. “It just is good that people be pleased. though. your interlocutor could ask once again.” or “as such. you might be puzzled. “It just is.” If this person were to go on to ask you why acting in this way is good. At some point. If you were then asked why it is good that people's needs be satisfied. But then. of course. You might be inclined to say. you would have to put an end to the questions.” The custom has been not to distinguish between the meanings of these terms.” Or you might accept the legitimacy of the question and say that it is good that people's needs be satisfied because this brings them pleasure. “What's good about that?” Perhaps at this point you would answer.” or “for its own sake. let us ignore this complication and focus on what it means to say that something is valuable for its own sake as opposed to being valuable for the sake of something else to which it is related in some way.” and thus put an end to this line of questioning. For the moment. you might say that it is good to help others in time of need simply because it is good that their needs be satisfied. Unless you suspected some sort of trick. “Yes. Perhaps it is easiest to grasp this distinction by way of illustration. Or perhaps you would again seek to explain the fact that it is good that people be pleased in terms of something else that you take to be good. not because you would have grown tired of them (though that is a distinct Page 29 of 44 . you would answer. of course. though.

but because you would be forced to recognize that. it is good for its own sake. Page 30 of 44 . it is good. something whose goodness is the source of. but for the sake of something else that is good and to which it is related in some way. Another complication is that it may not in fact be accurate to say that whatever is intrinsically good is nonderivatively good. First. That which is intrinsically good is nonderivatively good. that the terms traditionally used to refer to intrinsic value in fact refer to more than one concept.Equity Valuation and Analysis possibility). It is almost universally acknowledged among philosophers that all value is “supervenient” on certain nonevaluative features of the thing that has value. and so on. something that “just is” good in its own right. not (insofar as its extrinsic value is concerned) for its own sake. The account just given of the distinction between intrinsic and extrinsic value is rough. Still another complication is this. again. but it should do as a start. It is at this point that you will have arrived at intrinsic goodness. This issue will be taken up (in Section 5) when the computation of intrinsic value is discussed. and thus explains. some intrinsic value may be derivative. it may be safely ignored for now. though. if one thing derives its goodness from some other thing. this will be addressed later (in this section and the next). Intrinsic value thus has a certain priority over extrinsic value. mentioned above. It is for this reason that philosophers have tended to focus on intrinsic value in particular. there must come a point at which you reach something whose goodness is not derivative in this way. there is the possibility. That which is not intrinsically good but extrinsically good is derivatively good. the goodness to be found in all the other things that precede it on the list. The latter is derivative from or reflective of the former and is to be explained in terms of the former. which derives its goodness from yet a third thing. Certain complications must be immediately acknowledged.

” If asked why. not attributable to the value of anything else) is usually understood to be supervenient on certain nonevaluative features of the thing that has value (and thus to be attributable. For example. Again. we may well take this value. you would say that this is because such behavior promotes health. if something has value. value that is. It would be a mistake. in a different way. its value can be attributed to these features. we would probably simply attribute the value of the experiences to their having the feature of being pleasant. you would say. to these features). For example. in some way.Equity Valuation and Analysis Roughly. As “intrinsic value” is traditionally understood. In saying this. This brings out the subtle but important point that the question whether some value is derivative is distinct from the question whether it is supervenient. like all value. to affirm the converse of this and say that whatever is nonderivatively good is intrinsically good. to be supervenient on something. the value of helping others in time of need might be attributed to the fact that such behavior has the feature of being causally related to certain pleasant experiences induced in those who receive the help. suppose that your interlocutor were to ask you whether it is good to eat and drink in moderation and to exercise regularly. it refers to a particular way of being nonderivatively good. Suppose we accept this and accept also that the experiences in question are intrinsically good. If asked Page 31 of 44 . “Yes. To repeat: whatever is intrinsically good is (barring the complication to be discussed in Section 5) nonderivatively good. we are (barring the complication to be discussed in Section 5) taking the value of the experiences to be nonderivative. In this case. Even nonderivative value (value that something has in its own right. it will have this value in virtue of certain nonevaluative features that it has. Nonetheless. however. what this means is that. there are other ways in which something might be nonderivatively good. of course.

or you might simply say. in light of his villainy. his being healthy is intrinsically bad. you would be indicating that you subscribe to the common view that intrinsic value is nonderivative value of some peculiarly moral sort. You would thereby be attributing a type of nonderivative interest-value to John's being healthy. Let us now see whether this still rough account of intrinsic value can be made more precise.Equity Valuation and Analysis what is good about being healthy. he has a particular type of analysis in mind. Moore asks whether the concept of intrinsic value (or. One of the first writers to concern himself with the question of what exactly is at issue when we ascribe intrinsic value to something was G. you might want to insist that. and yet it would be perfectly consistent for you to deny that John's being healthy is intrinsically good. Moore [1873-1958]. though? Well. so that John's being healthy is good for John. and so on. you might well deny this. If you did say this. In his book Principia Ethica. one which consists in “breaking down” a concept into simpler component concepts. the concept of intrinsic goodness. Jane's being healthy is good for Jane. E. you might cite something else whose goodness would explain the value of health. more particularly. Indeed. “Being healthy just is a good way to be. upon which he tended to focus) is analyzable. In raising this question. If John were a villain. But perhaps not. even though you recognize that his being healthy is good for him. you would be indicating that you took health to be nonderivatively good in some way. (One example of an analysis of this sort is the analysis of the concept of being a vixen in terms Page 32 of 44 . In what way. perhaps you would be thinking of health as intrinsically good. Suppose that what you meant was that being healthy just is “good for” the person who is healthy (in the sense that it is in each person's interest to be healthy).” If the latter were your response.

Moore himself deems it incredible that anyone. since it will always be intelligible to ask whether (and. if such a thought-experiment led you to conclude that all and only pleasure would be good in isolation. in this way.” we would judge their existence to be good. Such a view he finds absurd. and all and only pain bad. Regardless of the merits of this isolation test. enjoyment of beauty. thinking clearly. that we can break down the concept of being intrinsically good into the simpler concepts of being A. you would be a hedonist. B.Equity Valuation and Analysis of the concepts of being a fox and being female. or moral qualities — is better than a world that contained all these things but in which there existed slightly less pleasure. if they existed by themselves “in absolute isolation. presumably. C. In place of analysis. which would not be the Page 33 of 44 . For example. Moore proposes a certain kind of thought-experiment in order both to come to understand the concept better and to reach a decision about what is intrinsically good. where these component concepts are all purely descriptive rather than evaluative. love. being B. At one point he attacks the view that it can be analyzed wholly in terms of “natural” concepts — the view. He advises us to consider what things are such that.…. to deny that) it is good that something be A. (One candidate that Moore discusses is this: for something to be intrinsically good is for it to be something that we desire to desire. would reach this conclusion. we will be better able to see what really accounts for the value that there is in our world. He says that it involves our saying that a world in which only pleasure existed — a world without any knowledge.) His own answer to the question is that the concept of intrinsic goodness is not amenable to such analysis. it remains unclear exactly why Moore finds the concept of intrinsic goodness to be unanalyzable.) He argues that any such analysis is to be rejected. being C…. that is.

Equity Valuation and Analysis case if the analysis were accurate. C. He formulates a view according to which (to put matters roughly) to say that a state of affairs is intrinsically good or bad is to say that it is possible that its goodness or badness constitutes all the goodness or badness that there is in the world. it would reveal an important feature of intrinsic value that would help us better understand the concept. since it leaves open the possibility that this concept is analyzable in terms of other concepts. is evaluative. We will return to this point in Section 5. Roderick Chisholm [1916-1999] has argued that Moore's own isolation test in fact provides the basis for an analysis of the concept of intrinsic value. Even if this argument is successful (a complicated matter about which there is considerable disagreement).…. For example. Rather than pursue such a line of thought. again. He has shifted from what may be called an ontological version of Moore's isolation test — the attempt to understand the intrinsic value of a state in terms of the value that there would be if it were the only valuable state in existence — to an intentional version of that test — the attempt to Page 34 of 44 . unacceptable. Moore apparently thinks that his objection works just as well where one or more of the component concepts A. but. some or all of which are not “natural” but evaluative. However. it of course does not establish the more general claim that the concept of intrinsic goodness is not analyzable at all. showing that it is. B. Chisholm himself has responded in a different way to Bodanszky and Conee. Indeed. Eva Bodanszky and Earl Conee have attacked Chisholm's proposal. the general idea that an intrinsically valuable state is one that could somehow account for all the value in the world is suggestive and promising. in its details. several philosophers have proposed analyses of just this sort. if it could be adequately formulated. many dispute the cogency of his argument.

Equity Valuation and Analysis understand the intrinsic value of a state in terms of the kind of attitude it would be appropriate to have if one were to contemplate the valuable state as such. has claimed that. Such an analysis is supported by the mundane observation that.” we often use the term “valuable. that the concept of intrinsic goodness is analyzable in terms of the worthiness of some attitude. in a more or less qualified way. even if it is necessarily true that whatever is intrinsically good is worthy of being valued for its own sake. this analysis can be and has been challenged. have claimed. W. this answer indicates that the concept of intrinsic goodness is more fundamental than that of the worthiness of being valued. without reference to circumstances or consequences. if we ask why something is worthy of being valued for its own sake. Ewing [1899-1973]. instead of “good. Note that. which is inconsistent with analyzing the former in terms of the latter. Brand Blanshard [1892-1987]. and A. C. the proposed analysis of the concept of intrinsic goodness in these terms must be rejected because. Ross [1877-1971]. This new analysis in fact reflects a general idea that has a rich history. D.” which itself just means: worthy of being valued. Broad [1887-1971]. The underlying point is that those who value for its own sake that which is intrinsically good thereby evince a kind of moral sensitivity. Ewing and others have resisted this type of argument. It would thus seem very natural to suppose that for something to be intrinsically good is simply for it to be worthy of being valued for its own sake. it may Page 35 of 44 .) Though undoubtedly attractive. and vice versa. the answer is that this is the case precisely because the thing in question is intrinsically good. for example. (“Worthy” here is usually understood to signify a particular kind of moral worthiness. even if the argument succeeds. D. Franz Brentano [1838-1917]. in keeping with the idea that intrinsic value is a particular kind of moral value. among others. C.

” For here Kant may seem not only to be invoking the distinction between intrinsic and extrinsic value but also to be in agreement with Brentano et al. If this were the case. declaring the value that anything else may possess merely extrinsic. One final cautionary note. (The term “respect” is often used in place of “esteem” in such contexts. esteem. such beings are “ends in themselves” that have a “dignity” or “intrinsic value” that is “above all price. nor subtract from.” that it “shine[s] like a jewel for its own sake. it becomes clear on further inspection that Kant is in fact discussing a concept quite different from that with which this article is concerned. recognition of which would again help us to improve our understanding of this concept.” and that its “usefulness…can neither add to. reinforced when Kant immediately adds that a good will “is to be esteemed beyond comparison as far higher than anything it could ever bring about. regarding the characterization of the former in terms of the worthiness of some attitude. even those that lack a good will. it would reveal another important feature of intrinsic value. if anything. Immanuel Kant [1724-1804] is famous for saying that the only thing that is “good without qualification” is a good will. and vice versa. have “absolute value”. namely. In particular.” Such talk indicates that Kant believes that the Page 36 of 44 . in the senses of “intrinsic value” and “extrinsic value” discussed above.) Nonetheless. This suggestion is. A little later on he says that all rational beings.”This may seem to suggest that Kant ascribes (positive) intrinsic value only to a good will. which is good not because of what it effects or accomplishes but “in itself. It is apparent that some philosophers use the term “intrinsic value” and similar terms to express some concept other than the one just discussed. [its] value.Equity Valuation and Analysis nonetheless be necessarily true that whatever is intrinsically good is worthy of being valued for its own sake.

if this were understood as a thesis about intrinsic value as we have been understanding this concept. and other philosophers who have since written in the same vein. the implication would seem to be that. Yet this is something that Kant explicitly rejects elsewhere. But then. our world is as good as it could be.Equity Valuation and Analysis sort of value that rational beings possess is infinitely great. as being concerned not with the question of what intrinsic value rational beings have — in the sense of “intrinsic value” discussed above — but with the quite different question of how we ought to behave toward such creatures. Page 37 of 44 . It seems best to understand Kant. since it contains persons.

Donald kim discusses five sources of anamolous return in the stock market: high dividend stocks. such market anomalies do infact exist. However. Page 38 of 44 . then there would be no systematic gain from investing in stocks with certain easily identifiable characteristics such as low P/E. abnormally high returns for the month of January. and abnormally high returns for stocks rated “1” in the value line timeless market. small capitalization stocks.Equity Valuation and Analysis Market anomaly models If the stock markets were totally efficient. small capitalization and low analyst coverage. low P/E stocks.

the expected stock return is an exact linear function of the risk free rate. If the expected return from the DDM were greater than the expected return from the CAPM. the beta for the stock. Concentrating on risk and return was simply a convenient approach to the problem. then the market would adjust the price of the stock upward and hence lower its expected return. it is the security price.Equity Valuation and Analysis Capital asset pricing model: Those who use the CAPM model for active equity management style employ its prediction that in equilibrium. then the market would adjust the price upward and hence lower its expected return. The CAPM has said a lot lesser so far as the prices are concerned. In theory. The discussion had revolved around risk and expected returns. the stock whose expected return from the valuation model equates the expected return from the CAPM is to be in the equilibrium. and he expected return on the market portfolio. The Page 39 of 44 . Nonetheless. which is transacted in the markets and which determines speculative opportunities exist. It should be set at a level that expected returns from buying the security are identical to those available on an efficient portfolio of equivalent non-diversifiable risk. The equilibrium price should not provide any opportunities for speculative profits. This linear equation is called the security market line. If the expected return from the DDM were less than the expected return from the CAPM. If the expected return of CAPM were less than the expected return from the DDM then the market would adjust the price of the stock downward and hence raise its expected return.

Page 40 of 44 . There is no warranty on its validity when it is used in other situations. In practice. however. the principal features of the model are used widely.Equity Valuation and Analysis equilibrium pricing formula strictly applies to the single period world. Security analysts forecast expected future dividends and prices on a stock and discount them to the present using a discount rate generated from SML.

Rather many of these models can be used in combination with each other in sound judgment. but more importantly. These include 1. Finally a determination should be made of how the strategy would have performed in the past. on works. by the laws of chance. strategy should be based on a sound theory. testing. This last characteristic is critical and is the reason why investment strategies are back tested. An equity manager encounters many potential problems in the design. The quantitative strategy in valuation models may be defined as the engineered investment strategies. Insufficient rationale: There is insufficient rationale for why a strategy worked in the past and why it is estimated that it will work in the future. This is related to the problem of insufficient rationale and investment analyst uncovers statical relationships that are not expected Page 41 of 44 . 3. Data mining: Data mining occurs when so many strategies are tested that. the strategy should be put in quantified terms. and implementation of engineered investment strategies.Equity Valuation and Analysis Strategies The approaches explained are not mutually exclusive. Blind assumptions: Some strategies are based on the blind assumption that certain factors are always good or bad. Second. In developing these strategies. there should be not only the reason why the strategy worked in the past . First. Thus. consideration must be given at least to three characteristics. 2. a reason why should it be expected in the future.

omissions. Thus in conducting this back test the manager would be using data on 31 st December that were not available on that date. As a result any testing of potential strategy that includes only surviving companies would be biased in favor of survivors. Quantity of data: In searching for investment strategies. 4.ahead bias: This bias involves testing an investment strategy using data that would not have been available at the time the strategy was formulated. If it is less than the specified value then buy the stock. If the P/E ratio is greater than the specified value on December 31 st then sell the stock on January 1st. Survivor bias occurs when the companies that disappeared are eliminated from the database. manager’s use computerized historical data. The look ahead bias is that the P/E ratio is based on actual earnings for the year ending December 31st cannot be calculated on 31st December because actual earnings for the year ending 31st December are reported in the first quarter next year. For example the manager is testing a strategy involving price earnings ratio and performs the following test. Look. These databases often suffer from problems of inaccuracy. and survivor bias. 5.Equity Valuation and Analysis to any investment theory or substantive model and may well be just a result of the type or data or statically model used or per se chance. Page 42 of 44 .

however a subjective interpretation of the various quality features is inherently a part of the decision process. But at the same time it would seem only reasonable that selection decision derived from a penetrating analytical process of the quality of the company and its earnings an dividend potential in relation to the price of the stock should substantially increase the probabilities of obtaining satisfactory long term investment results. The data on individual equity derived from these techniques should ordinarily be compared with the benchmark for a representative stock market average or index given an indication of the comparative values available in the market. it might be noted that even the most sophisticated appraisal techniques cannot assure superior long-term investment results. In all cases.Equity Valuation and Analysis Conclusion: Comparative selection decisions for most industrial equity shares can usually be intelligently achieved through the appropriate use of one or more of the valuation techniques. Page 43 of 44 . However. Because results entirely depend upon the realization of future earnings and dividend. Such possibilities are one reason for portfolio diversification f reasonable proportions.

Donald fischer 3) Various Internet sites 4) Modules of certified program in capital markets.Equity Valuation and Analysis Bibliography 1) Security analysis and portfolio management---. (CPCM) Page 44 of 44 .V K Bhalla 2) Security analysis and portfolio management---.

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