SaaSCo Weekly Forecast Sheet
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($K)
Last Qtr Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
ARR Leaky Bucket Forecast
Starting ARR 20,000 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500
New ARR 3,000 3,500 3,500 3,800 3,800
Churn ARR 500 500 500 500 500
Ending ARR 22,500 25,500 25,500 25,800 25,800
Net new ARR 2,500 3,000 3,000 3,300 3,300
Triangulation Forecasts (New ARR)
Rep-level 3,350 4,200 4,100 3,700 3,800
Manager-level 2,975 3,000 3,000 3,100 3,100
Stage-weighted 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,400 2,500
FC category-weighted 3,000 2,500 2,500 3,200 3,100
Current Quarter Pipeline
New ARR pipeline 8,250 12,500 12,300 9,025 8,975
To-go coverage 2.8 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.7
Next Quarter Pipeline
New ARR pipeline 7,500 7,500 7,600 9,600 9,500
Coverage 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2
All Quarters Pipeline
New ARR pipeline 25,250 29,000 28,500 28,000 29,000
Total oppties 150 155 155 145 150
Oppties/rep 17 16 16 15 15
Booked QTD
New ARR closed QTD - 150 550 600
Linearity % 0% 4% 14% 15%
Checks
Out-quarters pipeline 9,500 9,000 8,600 9,375 10,525
Avg oppty size 168 187 184 193 193
ational License.
Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Plan FC/Plan Last Year YoY %
22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 23,500 96% 14,250 58%
3,700 3,600 3,500 3,500 3,400 3,900 87% 2,850 19%
500 500 400 400 350 500 70% 750 -53%
25,700 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,550 26,900 95% 16,350 56%
3,200 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,050 3,400 90% 2,100 43%
4,050 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,400
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
2,600 2,600 2,600 2,700 2,700
3,050 3,050 2,900 2,850 2,950
8,250 7,500 7,400 7,275 7,000
2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
10,000 10,500 9,800 10,200 10,400 4,350
2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4
30,000 31,000 31,000 30,500 31,000
155 160 165 160 165
16 16 17 16 17
600 650 650 700 750
15% 17% 17% 18% 19%
11,750 13,000 13,800 13,025 13,600
194 194 188 191 188
Comment (on either the template or the example data)
Often split between new logo and expansion to existing customers
Often split between churn from lost vs. shrinking/downsell accounts
I prefer an independent focus on new ARR and churn, but investors often like to look at the net add
Assumes here that sales owns both new logo and expansion ARR and forecasting it
Note that the managers were very close on calling last quarter's result
Note the the FC category-weighted FC perfected called last quarter
Pipeline means pipeline; strongly discourage implicit or default filters on it
Note that this is continuously shrinking, with a particularly large drop in week 3
Note that the coverage ratio has been steadily decreasing, despite starting with better starting coverage than last quarter
Note that this seems to building nicely and we should have slide-in from this quarter if deals slip as opposed to being lost
Note that while this is up from the prior quarter that it really hasn't been building too much. Worrisome.
Note that after two months we'd rather be at 30%+ booked QTD, we are more behind than we're usually behind
ng coverage than last quarter
slip as opposed to being lost
Worrisome.
