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India Midcap Research

Result Update

F

JET AIRWAYS
Lower yields disappoint, oil prices key monitorable

Revenue in line; deferred tax lowers PAT
Jet Airways (JAL) registered Q3FY11 standalone sales of INR 34.7 bn (our estimate INR 35.9 bn), an increase of 20% Y-o-Y and 12% Q-o-Q. The company reported EBIDTAR and EBIDTA margin of 24.5% and 18.2%, respectively, for the quarter. EBIDTA of INR 6.3 bn was 18.5% lower than our estimate as operating expenses were higher than estimated. We were also building in sequentially lower interest costs as the company had converted INR 22 bn of INR debt into USD denominated debt, whereas it reported flat numbers. The quarter also includes an unexpected deferred tax liability of INR 1 bn. Management has indicated the ~50% tax provision to be a one-time provision and has guided for 33% tax rate on ongoing basis. JetLite reported EBIDTAR margin of 22.4%, EBIDTA margin of 7.2%, and PAT margin of 5.3%.

February 17, 2011
Reuters : JET.BO Bloomberg : JETIN IN

EDELWEISS RATING Absolute Rating BUY

MARKET DATA CMP 52-week range (INR) Share in issue (mn) M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : : : : INR 507 926 / 395 219.1 44 / 2,448 1,129.1

Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000) :

Strong load factors; yield improvement lower than expected
The company reported load factors of 76.9% (75.4% in Q3FY10) in JAL domestic, 80.6% (82.5% in Q3FY10) in JAL international, and 82.6% (78.8% in Q3FY10) in JetLite during the quarter. Y-o-Y, average yields improved 6.2% in JAL domestic, 2.8% in JetLite, and were flat in the international segment. For Q4FY11, JAL expects ~3% decline in average yields due to seasonality. During the quarter, it partially shifted Jet Konnect capacity to Jet Airways full service.
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters* MFs, FIs & Banks FIIs Others * Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue) : : : : : 80.0 9.2 6.6 4.2 Nil

Earnings cut to reflect higher oil prices, 3Q performance
We are revising down our FY11-13 EBIDTAR estimates 7-8% due to: (a) higherthan-expected crude prices of 3-6% for FY12 and FY13; (b) lower yields in domestic – we are now building a 5.5% q-o-q decline in 4QFY11 than earlier estimate of 2% decline; we maintain our forecast of 5% y-o-y rise in yields in FY12 and (c) marginal cut in domestic traffic to 79% from the earlier estimate of 80% for FY12 and FY13.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (%) Sensex 1 month 3 months 12 months (3.1) (7.1) 13.3 Stock (19.2) (43.7) 5.6 Stock over Sensex (16.1) (36.6) (7.7)

Outlook and valuations: Attractive; maintain ‘BUY’
We believe in FY12 strong demand will continue to outpace supply, resulting in better yields. At CMP of INR 507, the stock is trading at 8.1x and 6.6x EV/EBIDTAR. We value the company at 7.25x EV/EBIDTAR (earlier 7.5x) and reduce our target price to INR 783, reflecting our downward revision of EBIDTAR estimates. We maintain ‘BUY’ recommendation on the stock.

Financials - Standalone Year to March Revenues (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) Net profit (INR mn) Diluted EPS (INR) Diluted P/E (x) Q3FY11 34,746 8,510 1,183 13.7 Q3FY10 28,856 7,137 1,058 12.3 % change 20.4 19.2 11.8 11.8 Q2FY11 31,050 6,865 123 1.4 % change 11.9 24.0 860.8 860.8 FY10 103,866 20,124 (4,676) (54.2) (7.3) FY11E 127,339 27,055 1,106 12.8 57.4

Manav Vijay +91-22- 4063 5413 manav.vijay@edelcap.com Manish Sarawagi +91-22- 4040 7575 manish.sarawagi@edelcap.com

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4%. EBIDTAR rose to INR 1.8 bn. 25. respectively. largely due to improvement in average yields and passenger traffic.7% Q-o-Q jump. JetLite operations JetLite reported sales of INR 4. respectively. the company has been reporting load factors of more than 80%. The Y-o-Y increase was due to the 13. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited . The company intends to add 4-6 aircrafts during FY12 in domestic operations. We expect JetLite to report FY11E and FY12E EBIDTAR margins of 18.5%.Jet Airways Recovery taking shape Domestic operations JAL’s domestic operations reported sales of INR 15.3 bn. Load factors of 76. EBIDTAR rose to INR 3. Average yields improved 16% sequentially and 6.8% increase in passenger traffic along with flat average yields.2%. EBIDTA margin of 16.5%. It is also expected to bring back its two leased aircrafts to Turkish Airlines into its own international operations by Q2FY12.3% increase in average yields.8%. The Y-o-Y increase was due 18. Average yields were marginally flat to negative on both sequential and Y-o-Y basis.9% and 22.8% increase in average yields.9% improved 150bps Y-o-Y.1 bn.4% and 19.2% Y-o-Y and 3.1% Y-o-Y and 26. respectively. The company expects to continue having strong operational performance on international operations. EBIDTA margins of 19.95 bn.6% Qo-Q.24% improved by substantial 690bps Y-o-Y. We expect domestic operations to report FY11E and FY12E EBIDTAR margins of 18.4% improved 40bps Y-o-Y and 830bps Q-o-Q. For the past six continuous quarters. We expect international operations to report FY11E and FY12E EBIDTAR margins of 23% and 21. up 20. Load factors of 82.6% Y-o-Y and 24. Y-o-Y increase of 37. Y-o-Y increase of 14.9% improved 150bps Y-o-Y.7% were flat Q-o-Q and improved 90bps Y-o-Y. Average yields improved 11% sequentially. Y-o-Y increase of 23% and 2% sequential growth. respectively. Load factors of 76. International operations JAL international operations reported sales of INR 19.56 bn.6% improved 380bps Y-o-Y. We continue with our estimates of 5% average yield increase for FY12 and FY13. largely due to improvement in average yields and passenger traffic. 16. We continue with estimates of our 6% and 5% average yield increase for FY12 and FY13. EBIDTA margins of 7.2% Y-o-Y. The company also mentioned that the recently launched routes of Johannesburg and Italy are expected to break-even in another 1-2 quarters against an average time period of 18-24 months.4 bn. up 20.5% Qo-Q.6% of EBIDTAR margins improved Y-o-Y due to the improvement in average yields and traffic. We continue with estimates of our 5% average yield increase for FY12 and FY13. The Y-o-Y increase was due to the 14% increase in passenger traffic along with 2. EBIDTAR rose to INR 4.8% increase in passenger traffic along with 6.

0) (45.International JetLite Source: Company.8 2.0 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 JAL .0 (%) (15.0 0.Domestic Jet .0 60.0 20.Jet Airways Chart 1: Y-o-Y healthy increase in average yields 30.0 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 (INR) Jet . Edelweiss research Edelweiss Securities Limited 3 .Domestic JAL .0 0.6 2.International JetLite Chart 2: Strong load factors continue 100.International JetLite Chart 3: Uptrend in Revenue per RPKM continues 6.0 80.0 15.2 4.0) (30.4 3.0 5.0 (%) 40.domestic JAL .0) Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 JAL .

0) Base 1.9) (1.4 3.0) (1.0 738.6 2.0 2.0 Target price 501 642 738 924 1.5 9.Domestic Jet .0 2.0) Base 1.000.9 Target Price 566.0 891. Edelweiss research Table 1: Sensitivity to FY12 financials Change (%) Fuel (2.065 Source: Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited .0) Base 1.0 EBIDTAR (6.0 715.0 Change (%) (2.0 Yield 830.0 4.0) (1.0) (4.0 674.9 Target Price 876.0 EBIDTAR (9.Jet Airways Chart 4: Cost per ASKM continues to show a downward trend 5.5 6.0) (1.6 2.2 2.0 2.5) 4.0 Load factor Change (%) (2.0 EBIDTAR (2.International JetLite Source: Company.5) 3.8 3.4) 0.0 738.0 1.0 689.9) (3.0 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 (INR) Jet .

600 12.866 83.227 1.019 7.2 7.367 2.0 10.305 4.085 2.041 32.029 2.179 996 1.137 2.580 8.6 30.5 31.5) 70.9 35.4 80.185 9.924 7.5 25.2 18.339 100.812 5.6 0.554 1.1 7.327 9.3 24.025 3.6 6.493 356 230 (107) 123 0 123 86 1 860.0 19.2 NM 14.9 32.4 (29.1 24.2 1.856 21.453 5.597 107.7 10.055 8.3 333.3 10.3 11.380) 705 (4.5 29.6 2.879 2.978 49.3 4.620 2.3 9.050 24.517 12.6 9.2 15.8 34.859 12.0 737.0 FY10 94.2 6.510 2.4 75.124 8.4 9.194 8.3 30.4 22.8 30.616 2.458 27.818 1.5 15.491 12.187 9.158 4.6 1.675 32.6 14.026 31.506 406 1.707 2.6) 11.317 11.337 8.5) 78.4 8.4 (4.8 33.1 22.799 3.6 9.6 11.6 24.266 9.6 17.363 (5.648 2.0 8.6 3.334 2.926 12.865 2.1) 185.666.0 (20.7 77.051 5.929 250 2.746 26.6 (1.1 24.4 (34.059 1 1.934 21.9 Q3FY11 32.685 9.351 3.4) 52.8 % change 16.719 8.3 25.8 9.619 8.6 (5.437 2.111 20.7 9.675) 1 (4.8 % change 19.480 508 676 383 1.4 20.209 3.2 0.9 Q2FY11 28.340 2.253 9.183 86 14 Q3FY10 27.069 582 1.3 24.3 6.3 7.8 23.236 10.614 9.1 6.968 3.6) 105.689 30.849 30.131 34.110 1.8 6.8 20.676) 86 (54) FY11E 127.339 127.807 9.186 7.3 7.106 86 13 (INR mn) FY12E 138.597 138.930 2.629 28.742 31.2 19.5 8.0 10.8 10.284 42.Jet Airways Financial snapshot (standalone) Year to March Income from operations (net) Other operating income Total operating income Total Expenditure Aircraft fuel expenses Employee expenses Selling and distribution expenses Other operating expenses EBIDTAR Aircraft rentals EBIDTA Depreciation PBIT Interest expenses Other income Profit before tax and exceptional items Exceptional items PBT Taxes PAT Shares o/s EPS As % of net revenues Expenditure Aircraft fuel expenses Employee expenses Selling and distribution expenses Other operating expenses Aircraft rentals EBIDTAR Depreciation Interest expenses EBIDTA PAT 75.653 86 42 77.1 24.539 103.176 6.0 15.942 3.2 3.5 10.4 9.6 7.651 545 1.058 86 12 11.453 1.6 21.9 22.5 6.0 0.1 23.9 8.4 4.7 6.361 10.7 8.014 13.6 Edelweiss Securities Limited 5 .441 18.9 14.848 6.898 2.8 9.2 9.5 6.

it acquired Sahara Airlines (now rebranded as Jet Lite India. we believe company has enough triggers to delverage the balance sheet.Jet Airways Company Description Jet Airways (India. there is huge operating leverage in the model. we expect the company to be in a sweet spot to exploit the buoyant general economic environment. Investment Theme With the expected growth in passenger traffic outpacing the supply growth in FY12. Across its domestic and international operations. We expect the rationality to continue and believe that 8-10% increase in supply will fall short of 14-15% increase in passenger traffic. JAL was incorporated as an air taxi operator in April 1992 and began its commercial airline operations in May 1993 and international operations in March 2004. 6 Edelweiss Securities Limited . Also with the triggers of Jet-Sahara case. economic downturn of 2009 and continuous losses brought some rationality in the fleet addition in 2009 and 2010. After a very strong fleet addition by all industry players during FY04-08. BKC land sale. Key Risks High crude oil prices. strong capacity addition by LCC’s and slowdown in traffic growth are some of the most important risks for the company. With majority of the cost fixed except fuel. sale and leaseback of existing fleet and proposed equity raising. the company operates 113 aircrafts (89 Jet Airways and 24 Jet Lite). JLL) in April 2007. JAL) is India’s largest private sector airline with market share of ~26% in the domestic market.

614) 86.6 6.366 15.9 29.6 12.8 8.651 14.7) (73.3 53.595 4.5 6.8 9.140 13.021 (17.5 9.0 8.764 108.3 (246.263 4.536 12.400 136.6 112.843 58.962 14.371 700 8.810 10.Jet Airways Financial Statements (Consolidated) Income statement Year to March Income from operations Total operating expenses Employee cost Aircraft fuel expenses Selling.531 9.9 FY10 (9.5 78.595 4.0) (71.3 (69.344 86.947 (8.691 933 10.0 503.575 9.448 126.779 139.083 16.9 FY13E 85.6 22.1 (6.9 263.6 FY12E 9.3) FY10 91.910 9.2 13.3 64.412 1.2) (223.375 9.3 FY09 106.529 5.6 31.0 124.085 2.7 36.594 50.8) 86.6 426.3 20.3 53.231 48. general & admin expenses Other expenditure Depreciation and amortisation Interest expenditure EBITDA margins Net profit margins Growth metrics (%) Year to March Revenues EBITDA PBT Core net profit EPS FY09 27.4 263.9 (5. general & admin expenses Other expenditure EBITDA Depreciation and amortisation EBIT Interest Total other income Profit before tax Provision for tax Core profit Extraordinary income/(loss) Profit after tax Profit after minority interest Shares outstanding (mn) EPS (INR) basic Diluted shares (mn) EPS (INR) diluted Common size metrics.107 18.587) 9.344 1.8 86.606 13.114 50.287 24.2 (INR mn) FY13E 169.4 6.943 62.0 112.131 48.923 7.3 (246.252 2.8) FY11E 145.2 38.028) 1.7) (71.265) 11.3 64.7 4.294 15.3 8.6 5.8 9.529 86.3 FY09 130.8 FY12E 159.0 0.924) 104 (6.858 2.770 37.5 3.651 (9.023 3.0 10.202) (4.040 52.751 23.106 9.9 30.608) 8.2 86.977 45.9 195.0 34.0 FY13E 6.614) (9.412 6.5 2.595 86.0 5.575 13.1 44.3 20.529 5.1 11.7) FY11E 22.535 10.921) (656) (21.6) (16.3) FY10 118.0 86.0 Edelweiss Securities Limited 7 .2 8.740 15.3) 86.2 381.0 37.538 14.4 8.7 14.450 57.424 662 762 582 1.1 6.5 FY12E 85.6 8.710 (21.4 20.5 10.617 (5.6 503.4 7.623 9.3 (69.658 145.826 (4.as % of net revenues Year to March Operating expenses Employee cost Aircraft fuel expenses Selling.3 14.1) FY11E 87.523 2.2 40.584 10.9 6.3 8.202) 86.723 5.474 3.1 33.6 9.

034) (2.Jet Airways Balance sheet As on 31st March Equity capital Reserves & surplus Shareholders funds Secured loans Unsecured loans Borrowings Deferred payment Sources of funds Gross block Depreciation Net block Capital work in progress Intangible assets Investments Inventories Sundry debtors Cash and bank balances Loans and advances Total current assets Sundry creditors and others Provisions Total current liabilities & provisions Net current assets P&L debit balance Uses of funds Book value per share (INR) Free cash flow Year to March Net profit Depreciation Others Gross cash flow Less: Changes in working capital Operating cash flow Less: Capex Free cash flow Cash flow metrics Year to March Operating cash flow Financing cash flow Investing cash flow Net cash flow Capex FY09 (4.890 269 (INR mn) FY13E 863 32.229 (2.749 (15.614) 9.688 (615) 16.638) 16.066 54.242) (2.847 33.770 (2.749 (2.213 203.229 (22.159 119.750 203.804 1.502 162.274 188.544 (7.554 (12.208 41.346 64.507 (2.711 43.890 180.561 12.738 137.843 (9.375 132.335 18.500) 8 Edelweiss Securities Limited .564 16.890 180.983) 10.724 1.419) 20.728) (4.691 6.818 12.173 21.125 1.738 142.063 43.007 FY09 863 33.971 22.917 2.575 7.152 (9.724 1.333 1.738 112.688 1.500) 18.552 3.066 69.071 172.000 8.688 (21.375 172.846 54.738 97.976 166.545 2.847 33.593) (3.251 54.169 51.544 7.711 43.000 7.078) 23.343 (3.338 1.611 19.034 15.375 147.571 18.151 (1.375 177.662 13.700 43.050 (4.724 1.368 47.529 9.110 35.523) 2.021 (5.066 99.765 8.900 44.724 1.085) 2.866 56.136) 16.375 8.335 18.100) (1.432) (6.890 216 FY12E 863 32.933 135.890 183.415 177.507 (34.344 9.866 49.500) 22.847 33.595 9.226 7.943 38.165) 24.758) (615) FY11E 20.450 25.001 16.364 115.608 9.047) 354 FY10 16.724 1.000 7.651 6.000 6.624) 2.199 (6.184 50.330 (1.202) 9.508 126.890 333 (INR mn) FY13E 5.321 34.942) FY10 (4.947 132.847 33.075 14.187 1.243 42.729 FY13E 23.152 215 15.066 94.340 2.800 49.711 43.000 6.335 18.074 FY11E 1.274 254 FY10 863 32.476 147.500) 20.804 1.371) (2.890 180.500) FY09 (9.948 6.059 39.249 FY12E 4.025) (1.297) 10.866 53.861 9.478 44.963 8.335 18.975 8.303) 4.367 10.804 1.711 43.297) 354 (3.286 1.264 15.804 1.558 144.866 45.500) FY12E 24.970 9.759 17.890 200 FY11E 863 32.286 1.177 (2.

3) 263.3 FY13E 16.3 FY11E 8.9 3.0 7.8 FY13E 64.4 10.3 FY12E 2.8) FY11E 0.4 57.3 1.7) 42.2 FY11E 2.5 1.4) FY10 (5.8) 0.1 FY10 (69.7 17 21 133 (95) 0.1 FY12E 13.9 (141.9 1.8) (71.4 1.1) 0.1 1.9 FY09 (16.8 4.7 11.4 2.7 8.6 2.6 117.3 1.5 16.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.9 13.5 1.0 (19.2 3.9 (55.9 6.7 4.8 5.9 FY12E 53.0 20.2) 0.8 4.1 0.8 5.3) 2.2 16.5 21 27 146 (98) 0.5 19 23 131 (89) 1.2 4.5 0.Jet Airways Ratios Year to March ROAE (%) ROACE (%) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Payable (days) Cash conversion cycle Current ratio Debt/EBITDA Interest cover (x) Fixed assets turnover (x) Total asset turnover (x) Equity turnover(x) Debt/Equity (x) Adjusted debt/Equity Du pont analysis Year to March NP margin (%) Total assets turnover Leverage multiplier ROAE (%) Valuation parameters Year to March Diluted EPS (INR) Y-o-Y growth (%) CEPS (INR) Diluted P/E (x) Price/BV(x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIDTAR EV/EBITDA (x)+1 yr forward FY09 (246.3) 0.3 6.3 0.0 164.1) 2.3 5.3 5.9 1.6 FY13E 3.9 0.4 2.1 9.5 1.8) (2.4 5.2 503.0 4.0 2.5 7.4 0.6 8.8 112.6 (17.8 7.9 1.9 Edelweiss Securities Limited 9 .1 8.9 4.6 5.4 (7.6) 145.4 FY09 (55.4 7.3 175.8 13.5) 18 31 107 (58) 1.0 1.4) (2.1 0.4) (9.7 3.6 4.6 8.5 18 22 132 (92) 0.5 0.3 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.8 0.6 3.1 4.9 FY10 (17.0 1.5 (22.2 2.

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Indian Hotels Company and Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India.150 (INR) 800 950 750 600 550 400 350 200 150 Buy Buy Buy Buy (INR) 16-Feb-11 ARRs jump. directors. any such restrictions. officers. but 81 numbers below expectations. portfolio management and brokerage group. Result Update 102 15-Feb-11 EIH Hold Feb-10 Mar-10 Jul-08 Apr-10 Aug-08 May-10 Sep-08 Jun-10 Oct-08 Jul-10 Nov-08 Aug-10 Dec-08 Sep-10 Jan-09 Oct-10 Feb-09 Nov-10 Mar-09 Dec-10 Apr-09 Jan-11 May-09 Feb-11 Jun-09 Jul-09 15-Feb-11 Cox and Kings Results in line.com Vikas Khemani Nischal Maheshwari Head Head Institutional Equities Research vikas. Hotel Leela Venture. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law.