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Friday, Mar. 07, 2008

Clinton and Obama, or Obama and Clinton

Will There Be a Hollywood Ending to This Dramatic Story?
By JOHN W. DEAN

The ongoing, precedent-setting contest between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack
Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination may be the best political story of
my lifetime, if not in the history of the country. This is pure, historic political drama.
Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama can write an ending that is going to satisfy
all who are following this story. This story is, of course, much more than remarkable
political theater, for its resolution will forever reverberate through the life of our
country.
Robert McKee, a Ph.D. in cinema arts, is a story expert. McKee has made a career out
of tutoring Hollywood about the essence of storytelling. (Yours truly attended his one
of his weekend seminars many years ago.) I believe borrowing a few of McKee's
analytical tools can assist in our better understanding this story, not to mention its
likely endings.
If This Is a Five-Act Play, Here Are the First Three Acts
We all live from event to event, scene to scene, and act to act - and what makes it
interesting is conflict, for in both life and stories, "conflict" always holds our attention.
Like a moth to a candle, we are drawn to observing conflict. The Hillary-versus-
Barack story is pure conflict, which will hold our attention until its resolution. If the
story ends well, I believe then the longer it plays, the more it helps Democrats - for it
dominates the news, pushing Republicans aside.
Act One opened with the announcements of not merely Obama and Clinton seeking
the nomination, but also John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and
Mike Gravel. The first-act curtain went down when Clinton and Obama emerged as
the favorites following the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.
Act Two ended with "Super Tuesday" on February 4, 2008, when twenty-two states
held Democratic primaries or caucuses and Barack took the lead, winning fourteen
states to Hillary's eight. The curtain lowered with Obama holding a slight lead in
delegates over Clinton, and her survival depending on wins in key states like Ohio
and Texas.
Act Three, which could have been the final act without Clinton wins, ended on March
5, 2008, with Hillary losing Vermont, but winning Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas. As
the curtain came down, Hillary was again competitive, although Barack has 135 more
pledged delegates. Hillary, unlike Barack, has shown she can win big states (like New
York, California, Ohio, and Texas), which are essential to winning the general
election. On the other hand, polling indicates Barack will do much better than Hillary
against Republican candidate John McCain - the most essential thing of all.
Act Four: The Primaries Will Fail To Pick the Nominee
Now, we enter Act Four. Most experts believe this race will only be resolved in
August, at the Democratic Convention in Denver. Because of the proportional
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allocation of delegates, neither candidate will be able to lock up the nomination

before the convention. In short, barring the unexpected, this contest for sufficient
pledged delegates to win the nomination has been fought to a draw.
Privately, the Obama campaign has, in effect, conceded this fact. Bloomberg News
received (by accident, for it was inadvertently attached to a press release) a
memorandum prepared by the Obama campaign, dated February 2, 2008, which
predicted that Obama would lose Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island but win Vermont on
March 4, 2008. It concludes that Obama will then lose Pennsylvania, Kentucky and
West Virginia, but will win in Wyoming, Mississippi, and Indiana.
As reported on February 6 by Bloomberg, Obama advisers had also concluded (at
least as of February 2) that at the end of the primaries, on June 7, 2008, "he will have
1,806 delegates to 1,789 for [Clinton]." This analysis excludes Florida and Michigan,
but it appears to include their breakdown of superdelegates as of that date. (If the
366 delegates of Florida and Michigan come back into play, Obama would need to
win some sixty percent to win the nomination, and that is not likely.) Thus, since
neither candidate will have the majority of the 4049 delegates, or the 2025-pledged-
delegates majority needed to win, it is - and will likely continue - to be a draw
regarding pledged delegates.
Act Four, as it will play out on stage, will be the race for the remaining 611 pledged
delegates, and if Florida and Michigan come back for viable contests, that will add
another 366 delegates. Excluding Florida and Michigan, here are the dates and
(delegates at stake): 3/8 - Wyoming (12), 3/11 - Mississippi (33), 4/22 - Pennsylvania
(158), 5/3 - Guam (4), 5/6 - Indiana (72), 5/6 - North Carolina (115), 5/13 - West
Virginia (28), 5/20 - Kentucky (51), 5/20 - Oregon (52), 6/3 - Montana (16), 6/3 - South
Dakota (15), and 6/7 - Puerto Rico (55).
During Act Four, there will be a lot going on offstage, or behind the scenes, where
both the Clinton and Obama camps have competing "war rooms," seeking to win the
hearts and minds of superdelegates who have yet to commit - or might be pushed to
reconsider their commitment. (Superdelegates, as many readers will be aware, are
members of the DNC - local, state and national Party officials, including members of
the House and Senate and state governors.) Both sides have involved the heaviest
artillery they can muster in this effort: Former President Clinton and Chelsea Clinton
are working the phones for Hillary and former Majority Leader of the Senate Tom
Daschle is leading the way for Barack.
Actually, Act Four will probably seem much like the movie "Groundhog Day." For it is
unlikely that any of these behind-the-scenes efforts will resolve the contest before
the convention. Accordingly, the race will come down to uncommitted
superdelegates at the convention.
Act Five: And The Winner Is... Do We Really Have To Decide?
There are a total of 796 superdelegates. While a few superdelegates are thrilled by
the important role they will play, and a few more have already cast their fortune with
one candidate or the other, most of the superdelegates are not happy that they may
have to decide the fate of their party's nomination.
TPM Election Central broadly posed the question to DNC chair Howard Dean about
the voting of superdelegates. Dean responded: "[A superdelegate's] role is to
exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and of the Democratic
Party." (Emphasis added.) In short, according to Dean, whatever criteria the delegate
himself or herself feels appropriate, are the ones he or she should use.
Currently, as reported by CNN, Obama has some 199 superdelegates committed to
him, and Clinton has 238 committed to her. For days, however, rumors have
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circulated online that Obama will soon announce that he has an additional 50
superdelegates, while other rumors claim the Clinton war room has brought a halt to
such a move. Let's assume, however, the story is correct. This would mean that
roughly 487 superdelegates are committed, yet still, neither side would be across the
finish line. So it will come down to roughly 300 superdelegates to make the decision
-- the Los Angeles Times places the exact number at 347.
To review the numbers: The total number of Democratic delegates is 4,049. If Obama
advisers are correct, then Barack has 1806 (which could include any number of the
50 superdelegates who have not been announced yet as being for Obama) and
Hillary has 1789. In total, that accounts for 3,595 superdelegates. Add in the some 26
delegates pledged to Edwards (which he can try to pass to either candidate) and the
total accounted for is 3,621. So somewhere in the range of 300 to 400 - again, the
exact number is 347, according to the LA Times -- uncommitted superdelegates
control will resolve this story.
Time to Build a Deus Ex Machina Solution
Here are the serious downside problems with the superdelegates making their
decision. They stand to alienate either Clinton or Obama supporters who are going to
be deeply disappointed -- many, even bitter, if their candidate does not win the
presidential nomination. Moreover, if one candidate (very likely, Obama) wins the
pledged delegates but not the nomination, the anger is likely to be especially great,
in particular as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and others, have voiced the opinion -
contrary to the position of DNC chairman Dean - that it is the will of the voters, not
party officials, that ought to govern.
In traveling the country and talking to both Hillary's and Barack's supporters --
several hundred people, over the past few months -- I am reminded of two prior
campaigns. Not unlike Barry Goldwater's supporters in 1964 and George McGovern's
supporters in 1972, many of Clinton and Obama's most devoted followers are more
interested in making a point than winning an election. Gender and race are big issues
in this contest, and the Democratic Party dare not turn off, or embitter, either group
and still hope to win in November.
Unlike the Goldwater and McGovern races (which each candidate lost badly), there is
a unique factor in this race. Many of Clinton and Obama's supporters were torn in
making their choice, and did not become invested in their decision until they actually
made it. So, simultaneously, there exists extremely broad support throughout the
party for both candidates, and a heartfelt desire by countless rank-and-file
Democrats to have neither candidate lose. There may be poll numbers I have not
found, but I believe a solid majority of Democrats would be thrilled with either an
Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket. Although not being atop the ticket would
disappoint either candidate and his or her supporters, those activist Democrats with
whom I have spoken would be delighted with this consolation arrangement.
To date, neither candidate has rejected this notion out of hand; rather, each says it is
premature, for each understandably wants the top spot. Clearly, such a "dream
ticket" would prevent alienation within the party - as well as presenting the
Republicans with their greatest possible nightmare scenario.
When Aristotle first analyzed the elements of a good story, he found that the ending
must be both "inevitable and unexpected." There are some very savvy politicians
among the uncommitted superdelegates, who if they act well before the convention,
can construct nothing less than a modern deus ex machina that could guarantee the
dream ticket that Democrats crave and Republicans fear. If I explain what these
political pros surely know about how to do this, I will risk ruining the end of this great
story, which must be inevitable and unexpected. This I must say, however: Now is the
time for all uncommitted superdelegates to go to the aid of your party.
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John W. Dean, a FindLaw columnist, is a former counsel to the president