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McCain More Hawkish Than Bush on

Russia, China, Iraq (Update2)
By Hans Nichols

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- John McCain is at least as determined as George W. Bush to

stay the course in Iraq and more confrontational than the president on foreign policy
issues ranging from Russia and China to North Korea.
The perception that McCain is less bellicose than the administration is belied by his
own positions. He's skeptical about Bush's plan to provide nuclear fuel to North
Korea. He has signaled he would be tougher on China. And he called Russia's
elections ``rigged'' even as Bush said he wanted a ``close'' relationship with the
president-elect.
``On Russia and China, he is clearly more hawkish than Bush,'' said Ken Weinstein,
chief executive officer of the Hudson Institute, a research group in Washington.
McCain, 71, an Arizona senator, departs for Europe and the Middle East this week,
having weathered the contest for the Republican presidential nomination with his
image as an internationalist on foreign policy largely intact.
Democrats are eager to challenge the notion of the former prisoner of war as a
leader who understands the costs and consequences of armed conflict.
``This is a man who hasn't seen a country he doesn't want to bomb or invade,'' said
Ivo Daalder, a former National Security Council aide in the Clinton administration who
has advised Democrat Barack Obama in his run for the White House.
By emphasizing his ``more moderate approach on detainee policy and climate
change,'' the former naval aviator has been able to cloak his ``more hawkish position
on non-proliferation, China and Russia,'' said Daalder.
Visiting `Old Europe'
McCain has embraced his image as a Republican who receives invitations to
conferences in what former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld once derided as
``Old Europe,'' counting leaders such as Germany's Angela Merkel and France's
Nicolas Sarkozy as friends.
He's billing his trip to Europe and the Middle East, which includes stops in London,
Paris, Iraq and Jerusalem, as a listening tour. ``I would like to talk to our friends about
ways that we can better cooperate,'' he told reporters in St. Louis.
Yet even on Iraq, McCain has argued for a tougher response than Bush.
He called for an additional 100,000 troops in 2004, presaging the ``surge'' strategy
of dispatching 30,000 additional soldiers that the president announced in early 2007.
At the same time, he was critical of Rumsfeld and warned that the U.S. was losing the
war.
Hardline Positions
On a host of other issues, McCain has telegraphed a more unilateral approach than
Bush.
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On China, he has said he will make it clear to the government that the U.S. is
unhappy at the weakness of the currency and the ``repression of democracy.'' He
also vows to oppose any effort by China to force reunification with Taiwan.
``He thinks we need to make sure that the hard edge of the balance is kept up,'' said
Gary Schmitt, a McCain adviser and senior fellow at the Washington-based American
Enterprise Institute.
On North Korea, he questions the agreement by the administration to provide nuclear
fuel in exchange for the country suspending its nuclear-enrichment program.
``The jury is still out on North Korea, and Senator McCain has been a little more
skeptical about the route they've gone,'' said Schmitt.
McCain has also differentiated his Russia policy from that of the White House,
insisting that when he looks at the eyes of departing President Vladimir Putin, he
sees the ``K.G.B,'' not the man Bush once said was ``deeply committed to his
country.''
`Rigged' Elections
After the Russian elections earlier this month, McCain said they were ``clearly
rigged.'' Bush told President-elect Dmitry Medvedev he wanted a ``close working
relationship.''
McCain's aides said he has voiced concern that Medvedev is still chairman of OAO
Gazprom, whose recent reduction of natural gas supplies to Ukraine is ``a real
problem,'' said Randy Scheunemann, an adviser. He also supports a path to
membership for Ukraine and Georgia in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Neither McCain nor Bush has ruled out the use of force in Iran or North Korea. Nor will
McCain sit down with leaders of those countries, or Cuba, unless conditions are met.
Both say troop withdrawals in Iraq will be determined by events on the ground, not
timetables set in Washington.
McCain's campaign aides have taken pains to knock down the notion that he is more
of a hardliner than Bush.
``He's no neoconservative,'' said Charlie Black, another top adviser. ``But he
believes in supporting countries that are struggling.''
Party Split
The Republican Party has been divided between self-styled ``realists'' such as Brent
Scowcroft who didn't support the invasion of Iraq, and ``idealists,'' such as Richard
Perle and Robert Kagan, who urged Bush to depose Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in
the name of democracy.
The so-called realists were skeptical of Bush's plan to bring freedom to the Middle
East and worried that regime change in Iraq would have unintended consequences
throughout the region.
McCain is a ``realistic idealist,'' said Mark Salter, a senior adviser.
His foreign policy worldview is defined by ``standing up for people he thinks are
being abused,'' said Salter. ``Here was a guy who was deprived of liberty.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at
hnichols2@bloomberg.net