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to see whether they're worth buying. There are 2 methods of analyzing stocks, technical analysis and fundamental analysis (following hot tips from your neighbor doesn't count, unless your neighbor happens to be a Mr. Buffett). Fundamental analysis involves researching to see if the market in general, as well as the stock in particular, is currently undervalued or overpriced. The fundamental analyst does so by comparing the current stock price with what they think is the fair value. To gauge a stock's fair value, the fundamental analyst will look at the "basics" of a company. He will check the company's management practice, cash flow, total assets, earnings and revenue, debt, paid-up capital and so forth, to determine exactly how much the company's stock should be worth. Once he has that value, he will compare it with the current stock price. If the stock price is cheaper than his estimation of its fair value, he will conclude that the stock is undervalued and worth buying. That's fundamental analysis in a nutshell. For a more complete description, you can read TheStreet.com's article.
On the other hand, Technical Analysis involves trying to predict a stock's price movement by looking at how it has previously performed, and how people might act in the future. To a Technical Analyst, a stock price's past movement tells a lot about how it will move in the future. A Technical Analyst doesn't care what a stock is really worth. Instead, he cares whether the public will buy the stock or not. He will use various charts and indicators (which we will discuss in the following pages) to monitor the trend and momentum of a stock as well as investors' behavior. If a stock is on a roll and investors appear greedy, the technical analyst will probably decide that the price will continue to rise, and will invest in the stock. On the other hand, if the stock is losing steam, the technical analyst will probably conclude that investors are starting to lose interest in the stock, and he will avoid buying it since the price trend might reverse.
Fundamental Analysis attempts to uncover undervalued or overpriced stocks. Technical Analysis attempts to read the trend and momentum of a stock to determine if the trend will continue or reverse.
So which method is better? There are pros and cons to both methods, and both are utilized in the market. However, when we're dealing with options, the preferred method is using Technical Analysis trends. Fundamental Analysis tends to deal with annual reports and quarterly forecasts, and to predict the steady growth of a stock. When we're working with stock options, "annual" and "quarterly" timeframes are just too long. In option trading, the options we buy or sell usually have timeframes measured in weeks or months, and we do not have the luxury of waiting for a company's next annual report to confirm our move. On the other hand, since Technical Analysis trends work to predict trends and momentum in stock prices, it is better suited to analyze short-term movement in stock prices. These momentum indicators can be used to show short-term trends, even to the extent of 5-minute intervals.
but are not able to predict the next few days' movement. inflation and political change. which we will be covering later on. highs. they are good in showing whether a trend is developing. rather than years. trading sideways). These are the tools used by Technical Analysts to predict cycles. Therefore. and is therefore likely to continue falling. They use that data to create a trend or chart to indicate what has been happening to the stock. They are based on the stock's price data. Stock and market levels are easily affected by external forces such as global terrorism. There are two main types of indicators: Leading Indicators and Lagging Indicators. or whether at stock is in a trading range (ie. long-term or short-term. . Technical Indicators are used to indicate trends and predict future stock price movement. as well as the volume. Lagging Indicators are not good when predicting future rallies or pullbacks. On the other hand. and is therefore more suitable for option-trading. caution must always be used when trying to predict a stock's movement. Lagging Indicators are indicators which follow the stock's price pattern. Technical Indicators are calculated based on a particular stock or derivative's price pattern. lagging indicators can show that a stock has developed a very strong downtrend. usually from recent periods. whichever method you choose to utilize. hence the name "Lagging" Indicators. Technical Indicators As the name suggests. where timeframes are measured in weeks. Examples of Lagging Indicators include trending indicators such as the Moving Average.Technical Analysis is better able to predict short-term price movement. oil prices. as well as news that is directly related to the stock in question. For example. Since they are based on past data. Data such as opening price. and hopefully predict what may happen in the future. They can show what trends have developed until the current point. closing price. be warned that neither method (Fundamental or Technical) is 100% accurate in predicting a stock's movement. and to predict when is the best time to buy or sell a stock or option. However. are used to create the many technical indicators out there. lows. The indicators generally take the stock's price data from the last few periods (for example the last 30 days). Technical Indicators are used to indicate trends and possible turning points in stock prices. MACD and ADX indicators.
investors are advised not to base their decisions on just one indicator. but we do know that once its upward speed starts to slow down. which are based on different data and serve different functions. and provide an easy-to-see indication whether the stock is currently trending (moving up or down) or in a trading range (moving sideways). any high-profile stock market guru will most likely have developed his own indicator to predict the market. However. we say that the stock is now overbought. In doing so we hope to expose you to the various types of indicators out there. it will soon stop going up and start falling down again. We might not know how high it will go. only buy when all 3 indicators tell you to buy). . it is recommended that investors take 2 or 3 indicators they are comfortable with. A pullback is imminent. In fact. There are hundreds of indicators in use at the moment. Leading Indicators include momentum indicators that can predict if a stock is overbought or oversold. as the name implies. If the price has gone too far down. and thus can predict pullbacks in the near future. Leading Indicators. Therefore. Both Leading and Lagging Indicators are equally important. are better at predicting possible future price rallies and crashes. They are used to smooth the price pattern of the stock. no indicator is perfect. If the stock's price has gone too high up. Moving Averages Moving averages are among the most simple technical indicators available. Common sense indicates that the football cannot keep going higher forever. in this guide we will only cover 5 indicators. After all. and base their decisions on them (ie. and enable you to choose which type of indicator you are more comfortable with. we say it is oversold. That is the basis of momentum indicators. We need to know both the trends that are developing as well as possible slowdowns and price pullbacks. Imagine a football we are throwing up in the air. All indicators can produce false signals from time to time. the leading indicators will show that the stock will not remain overbought or oversold for long. Most Leading Indicators are momentum indicators. Leading Indicators are good at telling us whether a stock's price has gone too high up or too far down. gauging the momentum of a stock price's movements. and whether there is a slowdown in price movement. On the other hand.Lagging Indicators are good in showing the trends that have developed. but are not good in predicting future price movement. In either case. In fact. as well as other momentum indicators. Examples of Leading Indicators include the RSI which we will cover later.
It is used to smooth the price pattern and show whether the stock is trending upwards or downwards. the spike in the stock price in late May and early June might have tempted investors to buy into the stock again. Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. the moving average did not change much. What we covered above are called Simple Moving Averages. True enough. In simple moving averages. the pattern is smoothed. However. As can be seen in early February. once we apply a 20-day indicator to it. as seen in the chart below.As the name implies. the moving averages told a different story. just looking at the stock's price pattern. A 20-day average will take the average of the stock's closing price for the 20 most recent trading days. and smoothed the trendline. This will create a slowly-moving trend of the stock's price. or just Moving Averages. in mid February. with a single day's price changing by over $3. say a 20-Day moving average. the stock started trading downwards from early June right into July. The moving average was flat and indicated that an uptrend had not developed. since it took into account the last 20 days worth of data. The next day. However. and the oldest price of the previous 20 days will be taken out. However. For example. It is based on the average of a stock's closing price. in this case a 20-day moving average. even though the stock's price jumped more than $5. Likewise. the actual price pattern of the stock is very volatile. the moving averages indicated that the stock was still in a strong uptrend which would continue till early March. it seemed that the stock had stopped its upwards trend and was beginning to go down. the new day's stock price will be added to the average. Moving averages are one of the most simple technical indicators. Another form of averaging is known as Exponential Moving Averages or EMA for short .com As seen above. each of the 20 days' prices have equal weight in . and we can see a trend develop. moving averages are based on the averages of the stock's price (most commonly its closing price). Heeding the moving averages would have kept investors in the stock during the rally in late February.
and the exponential moving average is marked in red. Take the chart below for example. As such. and did not even register an upward trend till the rally was almost over! Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. since their sensitivity and quick movement are ideal for the short-term and volatile nature of option trading. On the other hand. while the exponential moving average might register false alarms. how do we use moving averages? As has beem mentioned. So. The simple moving average is marked in blue. we would tend to follow the exponential moving averages. in exponential moving averages. there was a sudden surge in RYL's stock price. Exponential Moving Averages give more weight to the most recent data. The exponential moving average. during a surprise rally. The simple moving average is less prone to whipsaws and false alarms. . and are therefore more sensitive and can react better to sudden price changes. downtrend or sideways trading range. This can help prevent investors from buying into a stock that is stuck in a trading range or starting to trend downwards. the exponential moving average will respond faster and start to trend upwards earlier.com So which type of moving average is better? Both have their own merit. In late May. On the other hand.calculating the average. being more sensitive. the simple moving average still took into account the previous down days. This makes them more suitable for option trading. However. exponential moving averages are more sensitive to sudden price changes and are able to react faster. reacted quickly and started trending upwards. and will only indicate trends when the price pattern is more pronounced. both simple and exponential moving averages are primarily meant to indicate whether the stock is in an uptrend. the most recent prices have more weight than the earliest ones. Since we are dealing with option trading.
These would be good times to buy call options or any bullish option strategy on the stock. the longer the period being averaged. and the slower it is to react. the rally or crash is almost over. the less sensitive it is. In addition. it is time for bullish strategies. When the stock price crosses above the moving average from below. indicating that investors are starting to buy the stock and the trend is moving upwards.com As can be seen. at the end of March and early July. Conversely. The moving average can be modified to accomodate different periods or date ranges. and therefore can indicate trends better. For example. However. creating a lot of false alarms. the chart below presents both the 20-Day (in blue) and 50-Day exponential moving averages for CAT. Looking at the RYL chart above. In other words. the stock price crossed upwards from below the exponential moving average in late Februrary and late May. producing less false signals. Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. When the price crosses below the moving average from above. and a new trend is developing. by the time the stock price crosses the 50-Day exponential moving average. . indicating that it was time to implement bearish option strategies. the stock price crossed below the exponential moving average. However. the 50-Day exponential moving average (in red) is much smoother than the 20-Day.Another common way of using both simple and exponential moving averages is by noticing when the stock price crosses above or below the moving average. Heeding every crossover would have been a very painful and costly experience. The reason for that is that a 20-Day exponential moving average is probably too sensitive and erratic. This shows that the trend (either up or down) has reversed. the stock price crosses it less often. it can be seen that the stock price crossed the exponential moving average many times in those 6 months. it is time for bearish strategies.
the 12-Day EMA (in blue) is the faster EMA while the 26-Day (in red) is slower. and the one we will focus on. As with other oscillating and momentum indicators. Please be reminded that this indicator should not be used on its own. The MACD charts are based on 3 exponential moving averages. for short-term to long-term strategies. the stock is in an uptrend. If the 12-Day EMA is increasing much faster than the 26-Day EMA. are the 12-26-9 MACD charts. Some options investors compromise by using a slightly slower moving average such as the 24-Day and 30-Day averages. The logic behind using a faster and slower EMA is that this can be used to gauge momentum. the uptrend is becoming stronger and more pronounced. These averages can be of any period. The longer the period. The MACD charts are oscillating indicators. As can be seen on the chart below. . or MACD charts for short. in order to confirm any signals. a consistently low value indicates that the stock is oversold and is likely to climb. Someone with a low risk profile and long-term strategies might choose slower moving averages.So what period moving averages should we choose? This depends on the individual's risk profile and investment strategies. but rather with one or two additional indicators. Conversely. but the less sensitive it is to sudden price movements. or EMA. are a technical indicator that is derived from the more simple moving average. The most common ones are 20-Day. while someone willing to risk more might go for faster moving averages. the stock movement's momentum is beginning to fade. Conversely. When the faster (in this case 12-Day) EMA is above the slower 26-Day EMA. We will focus on the first part first. There are 2 parts to the indicator MACD. in that order. and the 26-Day begins to near it. Since most option strategies are volatile and short-term in nature. a very high value indicates that the stock is overbought and will likely drop soon. Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator (MACD) Charts The Moving Average Convergence Divergence charts. and vice versa. meaning that they move above and below a centerline or zero point. the more confirmed the trend. Different periods can be used for moving averages. 50-Day and 200-Day simple and exponential moving averages. though the most common combination. shorter moving averages (though more risky with more false alarms) are needed to "catch the wave". indicating the end of the uptrend. when the 12-Day EMA starts slowing down. which is based on the stock's 12-Day and 26-Day EMA.
This line on its own doesn't tell much more than a moving average. This EMA (the thin blue line alongside the MACD line) acts like a normal EMA and smoothes the MACD line. when the indicator MACD line drops below its 9-Day EMA.Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. a new downtrend is forming and its time to implement bearish strategies. not of the stock price. the stock becomes bullish. the MACD line is at zero. When the MACD line (the difference between 12Day and 26-Day EMA) crosses above its 9-Day EMA. this new line is the thick black line in the middle chart. This can be seen on the chart in early March and early April. its becomes bearish. . The 9-Day EMA acts as a signal line or trigger line for the MACD. In the chart above.com The MACD charts use these 2 EMA by taking the difference between them and plotting a new line. When the MACD line crosses below its 9-Day EMA. such as in early February and mid June. This can be seen in early February and mid May. When the 12-Day EMA is higher than the 26-Day EMA. Conversely. it indicates that the downtrend is over and a new uptrend is forming. Note that the 9Day EMA is an EMA of the MACD line. The further the 12-Day EMA is from the 26-Day EMA. the MACD line will be in positive territory. This is the third value when we talk of 12-26-9 MACD charts. It becomes more useful when we take into account its 9-Day EMA. When the 12-Day and 26-Day EMA are at the same value. When the MACD line crosses above the 9Day EMA from below. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) charts are oscillating indicators based on exponential moving averages. the further the MACD line is from its centerline or zero value. Time to consider bullish strategies.
The MACD histogram is the blue-and-grey bar chart alongside the MACD line. a bullish signal is obtained when the MACD histogram crosses above zero. Let's look now at the chart below. We now look at the MACD histogram. the MACD histogram negative divergence is a warning that the stock might turn down soon. but with different markings. and a bearish signal is obtained when it crosses below zero. These progressively lower peaks constitue what is known as a negative divergence. This could happen even though the actual stock price seems to be making higher peaks in the chart. In order words.So far. and reached a subsequent smaller peak in the beginning of March. A larger version has been added beneath it. Basically. the positive divergence in March was a false alarm. Notice the thick red line drawn on the MACD histogram. So when the MACD line crosses above its 9-Day EMA.com A negative divergence on the MACD histogram is an indication that the current uptrend might reverse in the near future. the MACD histogram will cross above zero. which it did in the chart above. the positive divergence on the MACD histogram in January and early February correctly predicted the subsequent uptrend. we would have . we have covered the most simple form of interpreting the MACD charts. However. Just as the MACD line is the difference between the 12-Day and 26-Day EMA. It is the same chart as the one above. the MACD histogram is basically the difference between the MACD line and its 9-Day EMA. Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. Similarly. The red line shows that the MACD histogram reached a peak in mid February. If we had followed this signal.
50 is the centerline. in that it can predict a stock's price movement before it happens. where 0 is the most oversold. . or moves above 30 from below. while a negative divergence can predict potential downtrends. we again remind you that individual indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) charts should not be used on their own. So the points to watch are those when the RSI moves below 70 from above. say a 14-Day period. in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms. The primary reason this happened is that during the month of March. is a leading indicator. Similarly with oversold conditions. its true value is its ability to indicate when the stock is coming out of overbought or oversold conditions. the stock was in a trading range. a stock in a trading range might never hit the 80 or 20 levels. Subsequent relative strengths are then used to plot the RSI chart. These levels will confirm overbought or oversold conditions much better. While this 70/30 levels are more common. and 100 is the most overbought. Anything above 70 is considered overbought.bought into a downtrend. the RSI is based on gains and losses. fluctuating between 0 and 100. Note that the MACD line was hovering just above and below zero during this month. Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) The Relative Strength Index. While the RSI can tell us when a stock is overbought or oversold. The RSI is an oscillating indicator. Whereas moving averages are based on a stock's closing price. A positive divergence in this histogram can be used to predict potential uptrends. some investors do use 75/25 or even 80/20 levels to mark overbought and oversold conditions. The MACD histogram is the difference between the MACD line and its 9-Day EMA. the number and size of gains and losses are used to calculate the relative strength for a particular period. For example. In overbought conditions. and indicates overbought (price is too high) and oversold (price is too low) conditions. and anything below 30 is considered oversold. or RSI. Periods of stability and low volitility usually precede a sudden change. when the stock is going to move back towards the moving average. but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types. We discuss this phenomenon further when describing Bollinger Bands. but are less sensitive to normal price movements. and we will miss out on all signals. ie. with lower price fluctuations. the direction of which is usually uncertain. the price of the stock is bound to retreat and stabilize in the near future. Basically. As such. This is because the RSI is a momentum indicator.
It is used to indicate when a stock comes off its overbought or oversold conditions. the RSI crossed below 70 in March. and indicates a potential downturn. this might not be a good thing. For example. and again in June. A stock is overbought at RSI values above 70. .Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. the RSI was forming lower and lower peaks all the way till June. Therefore. Sure enough. the RSI formed a negative divergence in January 2004. This is a very bearish sign. oscillating and leading indicator. Similar to the MACD. and indicates a potential upturn. This is despite the fact that the actual stock price was making higher peaks. A positive divergence is when the RSI makes valleys or troughs that get higher and higher. The RSI is a momentum. we can also plot positive and negative divergences with the RSI. being a momentum indicator. Note that the RSI produced signals days (even more than a week) before the 20-Day EMA did in the chart above.com In the chart above. and oversold at values below 30. as can be seen in March. in the chart below. we would implement bearish strategies in March and June. If we extrapolate further. The RSI produced a bearish signal a month before the actual downturn happened. In the world of options trading. a month is a long time. It also crossed above 30 in May. is a leading indicator and can predict price movement before it happens. and bullish strategies in May. However. we can see that after January. A negative divergence is when the RSI creates peaks that become gradually lower. This is due to the fact that the RSI. the negative divergence correctly predicted a sharp price drop in early February.
and should be use with other indicators.com We have only touched on a few of the basic techniques involving RSI. but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types. There are other methods of reading RSI charts. and are beyond the scope of this guide. while longer-term Bollinger Bands (more than 20-Days) are more conservative. and its upper and lower "bands" that are 2 standard deviations away. It is quite simple. We have to mention again that individual indicators should not be used on their own. Bear in mind that when you use the Bollinger Band theory. Normally. we use the 20-Day simple moving average and its standard deviations to create Bollinger Bands.or longer-term Bollinger Bands depending on their needs. A positive divergence predicts future upturns. The RSI can also contain positive and negative divergence patterns. Standard deviations are a statistical tool used to contain the majority of movement or "deviation" around an average value. while a negative divergence predcits future downturns. Shorter-term Bollinger Bands strategies (less than 20-Days) are more sensitive to price fluctuations. Bollinger Bands Strategies The Bollinger Band theory is designed to depict the volatility of a stock. being composed of a simple moving average.Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. it only works as a gauge or guide. Strategies some investors use include shorter. . in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms.
the more volatile the price is. When the actual stock price moves away from the Bands back towards the moving average. It is meant to be used as a guide (or band) with which to gauge a stock's volatility. the Bollinger Bands will be far apart. mid April and mid May. we know that there will be a substantial price fluctuation in the near future. and will move back towards the moving average. When a stock's price is very volatile. However. it is depicted in the chart above by the actual stock price "hugging" either the upper or lower Bollinger Bands. Wide bands indicate volatile conditions. hence the need to use Bollinger Bands strategies together with other technical indicators. the shorter the time it will last. here are a couple of guidelines. . while narrow bands indicate stable conditions. It is derived from a simple moving average and its standard deviations. and the more likely the price will fall back towards the moving average. hence low volatility.com The Bollinger Band theory provide indicators to measure the volatility of a stock price. when there is little price fluctuation.So how do we use the Bollinger Band theory? The Bollinger Band theory will not indicate exactly which point to buy or sell an option or stock. As for how we use the Bollinger Band theory. with the Bands widening substantially. it can be taken as a signal that the price trend has slowed. as can be gauged using the Bollinger Bands. Therefore. On the other hand. Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. these periods can be seen in early March. Strategies include relating the width with the length of the bands. The wider the Bands are. when a stock starts to trade within narrow Bollinger Bands. However. This can be seen in the circled sections in February. late March and late June. The narrower the bands. the Bollinger Bands will be in a tight range. we do not know which direction the stock will move. it is common for the price to bounce off the Bands a second time before a confirmed move towards the moving average. In the chart below. such as in the circled sections in the chart. When the stock starts to become very volatile. History shows that a stock usually doesn't stay in a narrow trading range for long.
The ADX indicator is an oscillating indicator. and does not indicate its direction. the ADX indicates that from late February to mid April. This is quite accurate. it can measure whether an uptrend or downtrend is gaining momentum or slowing down. it is unlikely to see ADX indicator values above 60. the more likely the price will move back towards the moving average. Average Directional Index (ADX) Indicator The Average Directional Index. From the chart. ranging from 0 to 100. but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types. The Average Directional Index is an indicator that measures the strength of a trend. since it can be seen from the stock price that the first 3 months was an uptrend and the last 3 months was a downtrend. However. or the ADX indicator for short. acts as a guide to confirm the signals produced by other technical indicators. and the -DI is depicted as a thin red line. any ADX value above 40 is considered to be a strong trend. the ADX indicator did not go below 20. The ADX only indicates the strength of the trend.The longer a Bollinger Band remains narrow. Usually. For example. the more likely a sudden price movement will occur. The ADX indicator is the thick black line. while any ADX value below 20 indicates that the stock is in a trading range. In the chart below. The Average Directional Index (ADX) indicator is a combination of the positive directional indicator (+DI) and the negative directional indicator (-DI). the stock was in a strong trend. which indicates that there wasn't a period where the stock was trading flat. in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms. The wider a Bollinger Band becomes. and 100 indicating either a skyrocketing or plunging stock. in this case an upward trend. As usual. . it should be noted that individual indicators should not be used on their own. For this stock. and for the Bollinger Band theory in particular. the +DI is depicted as a thin green line. The ADX indicator combines the two and produces a unified trend strength indicator. while the -DI tracks the downward trend. since such high values indicate a trend that usually only appears in long bull runs or long recessions. The +DI tracks the upward trend of the stock. with 0 indicating flat trading.
it is bearish. Since most option strategies rely on large price movements in short timeframes. signals can be obtained by looking at where the positive directional index +DI (green) and negative directional index -DI (red) lines cross each other. the ADX indicator produced a signal in mid April indicating that the trend (in this case upwards) is fading. Therefore an ADX move below 40 would indicate that it is time to close our positions. We again stress that basing your investment decisions on only one indicator is not recommended. the ADX indicator briefly touched 20 from above and immediately turned back up. . In early July. such as in late April. and a new trend is developing. ADX indicator values above 40 indicate a strong trend. an ADX indicator move above 20 from below indicates that the sideways trading is over. This would indicate that it is time to make a move. a move below 40 from above indicates that the trend is slowing. This indicates that momentum is picking up and a new trend (in this case downwards) is forming. When the -DI crosses above the +DI from below. it is a bullish signal.Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts. such as in early February.com The Average Directional Index (ADX) indicator depicts the strength of a trend. while ADX values below 20 indicate a sideways trading range. either bullish or bearish. As for signals produced by the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicator. and does not differentiate between an uptrend or a downtrend. Conversely. It is best to use it with one or two additional indicators of different types in order to confirm signals and prevent false alarms. In the chart above. When the +DI crosses above the -DI from below. a slowing trend is bad. Also.
and our Advanced Options Strategies Guide for more complex option trading positions. We chose to cover these 5 indicators in order to give you a feel of the various types in existance. An ADX move above 20 from below indicates a new trend forming. And if you are would like to learn stock options and the various option strategies available. We hope you have enjoyed this guide. you can check out Stockcharts. . For more information on technical analysis. It is good practice to take 2 or 3 indicators of different types.An ADX move below 40 from above indicates a trend slowing down.com's education section or at ChartFilter. and using signals from all of them to make decisions. There are many technical indicators out there. do visit our Option Basics Guide for the more basic option trading information. and the way we described the concepts of technical analysis.
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