Shainin: A concept for problem solving

Lecture at the Shainin conference Amelior 11 December 2009
Willy Vandenbrande
 qsconsult www.qsconsult.be

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Dorian Shainin (1914 – 2000)
• Aeronautical engineer (MIT – 1936) • Design Engineer for United Aircraft Corporations • Mentored by his friend Joseph M. Juran • Reliability consultant for Grumman Aerospace (Lunar Excursion Module) • Reliability consultant for Pratt&Whitney (RL-10 rocket engine) • Developed over 20 statistical engineering techniques for problem solving and reliability • Started Shainin Consultants in 1984, his son Peter is current CEO.

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Dorian Shainin and ASQ
• 15th ASQ Honorary Member (1996) • First person to win all four major ASQ medals • In 2004 ASQ created the Dorian Shainin Medal
– For outstanding use of unique or creative applications of statistical techniques in the solving of problems related to the quality of a product or service.
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Dorian Shainin
• Not very well known outside USA (compared to Deming, Juran) • 1991: Publication of first edition of “World Class Quality” by Keki Bothe • 2000: Second edition (Keki and Adi Bothe) • Books brought attention to Shainin methods, but are very biased.
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Problem Solving • Focus is on variation reduction LSL USL After Before LSL = Lower Specification Limit USL = Upper Specification Limit 5  qsconsult .

Problem Solving • But also … LSL After Before 6  qsconsult .

– Red XTM – Pink XTM – Pale Pink XTM • Problem solving becomes the hunt for the Red XTM 7  qsconsult . • Only a few input variables are responsible for a large part of the output behavior.Basic Shainin assumption • The pareto principle of vital few and trivial many.

not in the drawing: let the parts talk! 8  qsconsult .Shainin tools • Recipe like methods / statistics in the background • Comparing extremes allows easier detection of causes – BOB – WOW Best of Best Worst of Worse • Non parametrics with ranking tests in stead of calculations with hypothesis tests • Graphical Methods • Working with small sample sizes • The truth is in the parts.

Preliminary activities • Define the critical output variable(s) to be improved (called problem Green Y®) • Determine the quality of the Measurement System used to evaluate the Green Y® – A bad measurement system can in itself be responsible for excessive variation – Improvements can only be seen if they can be measured 9  qsconsult .

20 – 1000 variables Clue generating Components Search Multi-Vari chart Paired Comparisons Product / Process Search 5 – 20 variables Variables Search Full Factorials 4 or less variables Formal Doe tools Validation No interactions B vs C Interactions Optimization Scatter Plots RSM methods Assurance Control Ongoing control Positrol Process Certification Precontrol Overview of Shainin tools  qsconsult 10 Source: World Class Quality – 2nd edition .

General comments • Gradually narrowing down the search • Clear logic – Analyzing – Improving – Controlling • Not all tools are “Shainin” tools • “What’s in a name?” – Positrol versus Control Plan – Process Certification versus Process Audit 11  qsconsult .

Tool details • Overview of methods • More info on B vs CTM and Scatter Plots in workshops • Some more detail on – Multi-Vari chart – Paired ComparisonTM and Product/Process Search – Pre Control 12  qsconsult .

Clue Generating / Multi-Vari Chart Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Understand the pattern of variation Define areas where not to look for problems Allow a more specific brainstorm Problem type: excess variation Wide applicability Divide total variation in categories Search for causes of variation in the biggest category first Samples taken in production on current process Could be a big measurement investment Very useful tool and best applied before brainstorming causes on excess variation 13  qsconsult .

between cavities.Multi-Vari Chart • Breakdown of variation in 3 families: – Positional (within piece. shift-to-shift. batch-to-batch. …) – Cyclical (consecutive units. …) 14  qsconsult . lot-tolot) – Temporal (hour-to-hour.

15  qsconsult .Multi-vari Chart • If one family of variation contains a large part of total variation. we can concentrate on investigating variables related to this family of variation.

Clue Generating / Component SearchTM Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Disassembly / reassembly requirement limits application. Components that change behavior are Red X comp 2 = 1 BOB and 1 WOW 16  qsconsult . Find the component(s) of an assembly that is (are) responsible for bad behavior Problem type: assembly does not perform to spec Limitation: Disassembly / Reassembly must be possible without product change Select BOB and WOW unit Exchange components and observe behavior.

Clue Generating / Paired ComparisonTM Find directions for further investigation Objective Application Principles Sample Size Practical application of “let the parts talk” Problem type: occasional problems in production flow Select pairs of BOB and WOW units Look for differences Consistent differences to be investigated further 5 to 6 pairs of 1 BOB and 1 WOW Comments 17  qsconsult .

…). chemical.Paired ComparisonsTM: method • Step 1: take 1 good and 1 bad unit – As close as possible in time – Aim for BOB and WOW units • Step 2: note the differences between these units (visual. dimensional. Repeat step 2 18  qsconsult . mechanical. Let the parts talk! • Step 3: take a second pair of good and bad units.

fourth.Paired ComparisonsTM: method • Step 4: repeat this process with third. … pair until a pattern of differences becomes apparent. • Step 5: don’t take inconsistent differences into account. 19  qsconsult . Generally after the fith or sixth pair the consistent differences that cause the variation become clear. fith.

. Add product data / process parameters and rank Apply Tukey test to determine important parameters 8 BOB and 8 WOW units / batches .Clue Generating / Product/Process Search Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Tukey test is alternative for t-test Widely applicable method Problem: available data (process parameters) 20  qsconsult Preselection of variables out of a large group of potential variables Problem type: Various types of problems Select sets of BOB and WOW units – batches ..

• Components search shows idler shaft as responsible component • One of the parameters of idler shaft is “out of round” • 8 good / 8 bad units selected and measured for “out of round” 21  qsconsult .Product/Process Search: example • Transmission assemblies rejected for noise.

024 0.016 0.014 0.019 0.019 0.023 0.015 0.017 0.018 0.Product/Process search: example Out of round good units (mm) 0.021 0.018 0.022 0.023 0.017 22  qsconsult .007 Out of round bad units (mm) 0.011 0.

Tukey test procedure • Rank individual units by parameter and indicate Good / Bad. • Determine confidence level to evaluate significance. 23  qsconsult . • Make sum of both counts. • Count number of “all good” or “all bad” from one side and vice versa from other side.

Tukey test confidence levels Total end count 6 7 10 13 Confidence 90% 95% 99% 99.9% 24  qsconsult .

017 0.023 0.014 0.023 0.016 0.Tukey test: example Good 0.024 Bottom end count (all bad) 3 25  qsconsult .017 0.018 0.007 0.019 0.021 Bad Top end count (all good) 4 0.022 Overlap region 0.015 0.018 0.011 0.019 0.

Tukey test: example • Total end count = 4 + 3 = 7 • 95 % confidence that out-of-round idler shaft is important in explaining the difference in noise levels. 26  qsconsult .

Formal Doe tools / Variables Search Objective Application Determine Red XTM. Pink XTM Principles Sample Size Comments Number of tests is determined by number of variables and quality of ordering. Factors that change behavior (and interactions) are red XTM. Swap factor settings and observe behavior. Alternative to fractional factorials on two levels Method comparable to components search 27  qsconsult . Pink XTM including quantification of their effect Problem type: Various types of problems After clue generating more then 4 potential variables left List variables in order of criticality (process knowledge) and indicate good / bad level.

Pink XTM including quantification of their effect Problem type: Various types of problems After clue generating 4 or less variables left Classical DOE with Full Factorials at two levels Main Effects and interactions are calculated Number of tests is determined by number of variables k (2k test combinations) Well established method 28  qsconsult .Formal Doe tools / Full Factorials Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Determine Red XTM.

Pink XTM Problem type: Various types of problems 29  qsconsult . 3 B and 3 C tests (each test can involve several units – test of variation reduction) All 3B’s must be better than all 3C’s Quick validation that works well with big improvements Validation of Red XTM.Formal Doe tools / B(etter) vs C(urrent)TM Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Create new process using optimum settings and compare optimum with current.

Optimization / Scatter Plots Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Graphical method that could easily be transformed to a statistical method Fine tune best level and realistic tolerance for Red XTM. Pink XTM if no interactions are present Problem type: Variation Reduction and optimizing signal Do tests around optimum and use graphical regression to set tolerance 30 tests for each critical variable 30  qsconsult .

Pink XTM if interactions are present Problem type: Variation Reduction and optimizing signal Evolutionary Operation (EVOP) to scan response surface in direction of steepest ascent Depends on variables and surface.Optimization / Response Surface Methods Objective Application Principles Sample Size Method developed by George Box Fine tune best level and realistic tolerance for Red XTM. Comments 31  qsconsult .

EVOP example 32  qsconsult .

Who. Checking frequency in the When column Comments 33  qsconsult . How.Control / Positrol Objective Application Principles Sample Size Can be compared with a Control Plan Assuring that optimum settings are kept Problem type: all types Table of What. Where and When control has to be exercised.

audits. Poka-Yoke. audits. … Checking frequency to be determined Eliminating peripheral causes of poor quality Problem type: all types 34  qsconsult . ISO 9000.Control / Process Certification Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Mix of 5S. instructions.… Make overview of things that could influence the process and install inspections.

Control / Pre Control Objective Application Principles Sample Size Comments Alternative to classical SPC Traffic lights system Very practical method 35  qsconsult Continuous checking of the quality of the process output Problem type: control variation and setting of the process Divide total tolerance in colored zones and use prescribed sampling and rules to control the process. Checking frequency to be determined .

Pre-Control: chart construction 1/4 TOL 1/4 TOL USL ½ TOL TARGET LSL 36  qsconsult .

In production: 2 consecutive units 4. 37  qsconsult . Frequency: time interval between two stoppages (see action rules) / 6.Pre-control: use of chart 1. If not possible: improve process. Start process: five consecutive units in green needed as validation of set-up. 2. 3.

Pre-control: action rules Result of samples 2 units in green zone 1 unit in green and 1 unit in yellow zone 2 units in same yellow zone 2 units in different yellow zone 1 unit in red zone Action Continue Continue Correct Stop and act Stop and act After an intervention: 5 consecutive units in green zone 38  qsconsult .

Pre-control: example Start  qsconsult Correct Start Time 39 .

8310 Brugge België .qsconsult.Six Sigma Black Belt Montpellier 34 B .Belgium Tel + 32 (0)479 36 03 75 E-mail willy@qsconsult.be Website www.qsconsult. Master TQM ASQ Fellow .QS Consult Willy Vandenbrande.be 40 .be Willy Vandenbrande  qsconsult www.

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