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Summary Faster increase in sales in rural areas is expected to drive motorcycle growth until 2014-15. Player focus and preference for scooter as a family vehicle will drive relatively high growth in scooter volumes until 2014-15. The growth in exports is likely to be moderate until 2014-15, following the shift in manufacturing facilities for exports to other countries. The two-wheeler industry is likely to continue its growth momentum in 2010-11 and post a growth of 10-11 per cent. Also, operating margins of players are expected to decline in 2010-11 with significant increase in input cost.
Part A: Increase in addressable households in rural areas to drive two-wheeler volume growth over the long run Executive summary A-1 Demand review and outlook A-3 Profitability – Review and outlook A-15 Part B: State of the industry Player profile Demand and market position Costs Supply Global coverage Government policy Part C: Industry statistics Industry statistics
B-1 B-13 B-21 B-25 B-29 B-43
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0 Demand – Review and outlook 2.segmental growth trend Two-wheeler .demand trend Two-wheeler .demand trend Mopeds .0 01 02 03 04 Demand .Opinion Sections Executive summary 1.0 Profitability – Review and outlook A-1 A-3 A-15 Chart 1.Review and outlook Domestic sales trend Two-wheeler .demand trend Trend in two-wheeler exports Segment-wise export sales Increase in market share in all major geographies Global market volumes Increasing share of India in total two-wheeler exports from top producing nations Export .segmental share Growth in rural income will lead to high addition in rural addressable households Motorcycle .demand trend Share of urban and rural to total motorcycle demand Scooters .0 01 02 Demand – Review and outlook Demand forecast methodology for motorcycles Factors affecting rural incomes (direct and indirect) A-5 A-6 Figures 1.Growth to moderate at 10-12 per cent Two-wheeler export volumes in 2009-10 Expected slowdown in major export countries Profitability – Review and outlook Operating profit trend Favourable product mix increasing net realisation Net sales realisations trend Impact of various factors on net realisation A-3 A-3 A-4 A-4 A-5 A-8 A-8 A-9 A-10 A-10 A-10 A-11 A-11 A-11 A-12 A-13 A-13 A-15 A-15 A-16 A-16 Continued… CRISIL RESEARCH TWO-WHEELERS ANNUAL REVIEW A-i .0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2.
RoCE trend A-17 A-17 A-18 A-18 A-19 A-19 A-19 Tables 1.0 01 Demand – Review and outlook Two-wheeler demand growth A-4 2.Price trend Selling and distribution cost (per cent of operating income) Selling and distribution cost (Rs per unit sold) Two-wheeler industry .…continued 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Effective excise duty Comparison of raw material/unit with operating margins Steel .0 Profitability – Review and outlook 01 Trend in profitability 02 Trends in per vehicle raw material cost A-16 A-18 A-ii CRISIL RESEARCH TWO-WHEELERS ANNUAL REVIEW .Price trend Aluminium .
Suzuki Motorcycles India Pvt.Introduction .Emission control laws .Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 2.Fiscal regulations .0 Demand and market position 3.Global markets 6.0 Player profile .0 01 02 03 04 05 Player profile Bajaj Auto – Estimated market share in motorcycles sub-segment Hero Honda – Estimated market share in motorcycles sub-segment TVS Motor Company: Estimated market share in motorcycles sub-segment HMSI .Emission norms .Other levies .Excise duty .0 Supply 5.0 Global coverage .Bajaj Auto Ltd .Investment policy .Yamaha Motor India .Global two-wheeler market .Import policy .0 Costs 4.State of the Industry Sections 1.Segment-wise market share Yamaha: Estimated market share in motorcycles sub-segment B-2 B-4 B-6 B-8 B-9 Continued… CRISIL RESEARCH TWO-WHEELERS ANNUAL REVIEW B-i .Hero Honda Motors Ltd . Ltd .TVS Motor Company .Safety laws B-1 B-1 B-3 B-5 B-7 B-9 B-10 B-11 B-13 B-21 B-25 B-29 B-29 B-30 B-43 B-43 B-43 B-43 B-44 B-45 B-45 B-45 B-46 B-46 Figures 1.0 Government policy .Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India (HMSI) .
TVS Mopeds Costs Two-wheeler industry – Cost structure Trends in steel and aluminium prices Raw material indigenisation (Two-wheeler industry) Selling and distribution expenses – Industry aggregates Player-wise selling and distribution expenses Supply Trend in capacity utilisation (two-wheeler industry) Comparison of gross fixed asset turnover of two-wheeler OEM vis –a –vis car OEM’s Global coverage Global sales volume distribution (2007) Global motorcycle production China – Sales distribution by engine capacity (2007) Indonesia — Motorcycle sales Indonesia: Share of 4-stroke vs 2-stroke Thailand – Motorcycle sales Thailand player-wise capacity share (2008) Taiwan – Domestic motorcycle sales trend Taiwan – Player market share Japan domestic sales (2002-2008) South Korea .Domestic sales Europe – Motorcycle & moped production Europe two-wheeler sales Italy .0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 3.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 B-29 B-29 B-30 B-31 B-32 B-33 B-33 B-34 B-34 B-35 B-36 B-38 B-38 B-39 B-39 continued… B-ii CRISIL RESEARCH TWO-WHEELERS ANNUAL REVIEW .…continued Figures 2.0 01 02 03 04 05 4.Market share of different types of motorcycles (2008) Germany – Two-wheeler sales B-14 B-14 B-14 B-15 B-16 B-16 B-16 B-16 B-17 B-17 B-18 B-18 B-21 B-22 B-23 B-24 B-24 B-25 B-25 5.0 01 02 Demand and market position Competitive position of players Two-wheelers – Player-wise share in domestic sales Two-wheelers – Player-wise growth rates Motorcycle – Player-wise share in domestic sales Economy – Player-wise share in domestic sales Economy segment – Major models Player-wise share in domestic sales Executive segment – Major models Player-wise share in domestic sales Premium segment – Major models Scooters – Player-wise share in domestic sales Growth rate in domestic sales .
Basic custom duty structure (2010-11) Key raw materials .0 01 02 5.0 16 17 18 Global coverage US company-wise market share (2007) Canada – segment–wise sales (2008) Canada domestic motorcycle sales B-40 B-41 B-41 Tables 1.…continued Figures 5.0 01 02 4. Ltd Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Demand and market position Two-wheelers: Player comparison (2009-10) Estimated two-wheeler distribution network Two-wheelers: Major models launched (April 2009 onwards) Costs Two-wheelers: Trend in raw material costs Raw material: Company-wise raw material cost break-up (2008-09) Supply Two-wheelers: Capacity and capacity utilisation of players (2009-10) Two-wheelers – Capacity addition plans Global coverage Different types of motorcycles Segment-wise market share in 2007 Demand in Brazil Segment-wise market share (2008) Government policy Two-wheelers .Import tariffs Excise duty .Emission norms B-1 B-3 B-5 B-7 B-9 B-10 B-11 B-19 B-19 B-20 B-22 B-23 B-26 B-27 B-29 B-34 B-37 B-39 B-44 B-44 B-45 B-46 CRISIL RESEARCH TWO-WHEELERS ANNUAL REVIEW B-iii .0 01 02 03 04 6.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2.0 01 02 03 04 Player profile Bajaj Auto Ltd Hero Honda Motors Ltd TVS Motors Ltd Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India Ltd Yamaha Motors Ltd Suzuki Motorcycle India Pvt.0 01 02 03 3.Two-wheelers and key raw materials Two-wheelers .
Unaudited results (standalone) Hero Honda .Segment and player-wise sales volumes Two-wheelers .Industry statistics Sections 1.Player-wise operating margin trends (standalone) Two-wheelers .Player-wise sales volumes Two-wheelers .Segment and player-wise market share (per cent) Two-wheelers .Financials of key players (2008-09) Bajaj Auto Ltd .0 Industry statistics C-1 Tables 1.Segment-wise sales volumes Two-wheelers .0 01: 02: 03: 04: 05: 06: 07: 08: 09: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: Industry statistics Two-wheelers .Segment and player-wise export share (per cent) Two-wheelers .Unaudited results TVS Motors .Player and segment-wise production Two-wheelers .Profit and loss account (standalone) Two-wheelers .Player-wise RoCE trends (standalone) Two-wheelers .Unaudited results (standalone) Two-wheelers .Aggregate industry balance sheet C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6 C-7 C-7 C-7 C-8 C-8 C-9 C-10 C-11 CRISIL RESEARCH TWO-WHEELERS ANNUAL REVIEW C-i .
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