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Many contemporary uses of uranium exploit its unique nuclear properties. Uranium-235 has the
distinction of being the only naturally occurring fissile isotope. Uranium-238 is fissionable by
fast neutrons, and is fertile, meaning it can be transmuted to fissile plutonium-239 in a nuclear
reactor. Another fissile isotope, uranium-233, can be produced from natural thorium and is
also important in nuclear technology. While uranium-238 has a small probability for
spontaneous fission or even induced fission with fast neutrons, uranium-235 and to a lesser
degree uranium-233 have a much higher fission cross-section for slow neutrons. In sufficient
concentration, these isotopes maintain a sustained nuclear chain reaction. This generates the
heat in nuclear power reactors, and produces the fissile material for nuclear weapons. Depleted
uranium (U-238) is used in kinetic energy penetrators and armor plating.[5The price of Uranium
is climbing. Although the U.S. is the largest generator of nuclear power, at approximately 30% of
worldwide nuclear generation, a reactor hasn’t been built in decades. Why is uranium on the
move, now at a spot price of around $73? The answer is in the developing countries,
particularly China and India.
China is pursuing uranium more aggressively than ever. A typical 1000 megawatt nuclear
reactor provides enough electricity to power a modern city of up to one million people, making
it an attractive option for a country with a population of over 1.3 billion people. In the last year
alone they have more than tripled their uranium imports, put two reactors online, and are not
stopping there as Beijing has plans to build many more.
India is the other major player in the uranium market as Asia’s third largest energy consumer.
It is estimated that their need for uranium will increase 10 fold by 2020, with a consumption of
about 8,000 tonnes annually. They are opening domestic numerous uranium mines this year,
and have signed civil nuclear agreements in six countries.
With these predicted astronomical numbers for China and India, speculation is driving the
market. The price spike in 2007 was similar in that it was driven by sentiment, but very
different because only a small amount of uranium actually changed hands.
When speculators see China’s commitment to invest $511 billion in nuclear energy combined
with India’s long-term demand, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them running back to uranium
this year.