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The MA3T model: Projecting Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Demand and Impact with Detailed Market Segmentation

1. ABSTRACT Zhenhong Lin ( linz@ornl.gov ), David L. Greene ( dlgreene@ornl.gov )


Oak Ridge National Laboratory 5. KEY MESSAGEIS
 Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) integrate the energy efficiency of hybrid
powertrain with the ability to partially substitute electricity for petroleum, and are The main development objective of MA3T is to facility policy analysis related to advanced
viewed as one solution to address the growing concerns about energy security
and global warming.
2. VEHICLE CHARACTERIZATION 3. THE MA3T MODEL 4. RESULTS
vehicle technologies.
 MA3T provides a logical, transparent, and flexible modeling platform that can be populated
Battery Capacity in kWh with best available information on advanced automotive technologies and consumer behavior.
 Sponsored by the Vehicle Technologies Program of the U.S. Department of Source: ANL/PSAT
 With the best information available so far, MA3T shows:
Energy, the Market Adoption of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model
Base PHEVSuccess
Model Features MA3T Framework
Technology
SI_PHEV10_Car
2010
4.1
2015
3.9
2045
3.5
2010
3.6
2015
2.7
2045
2.0
Vehicle Attributes Likelihood to Buy PHEV by Market Segment o Market acceptance of new technologies varies significantly across market segments.
was developed to project PHEV demand and its impact on energy and  Nested Multinomial Logit (NMNL) model among conventional and FreedomCAR V2G Census2000
o The network effect among different adopters plays a critical role in PHEV market
SI_PHEV20_Car 7.8 7.5 6.8 6.8 5.2 3.9
environment. The (MA3T) model features 26 vehicle technologies, 1458 market SI_PHEV40_Car 16.0 15.4 13.7 13.8 10.8 8.1 advanced vehicle technologies (AVT), implemented in MS Excel/VBA Literature
 vehicle retail price 25% Reference Segment: transition.
ORC Survey Purchase Discount, Tax
segments, learning-by-doing, chicken-and-egg dynamics, and application flexibility. FC_PHEV10_Car 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.7 2.8 2.1
FC_PHEV20_Car 8.6 8.3 7.6 7.3 5.6 4.2  the U.S. light-duty vehicle market, 2005 to 2050 Credit, Free Parking,  fuel and electricity cost SouthAtlantic
o The daily VMT distribution seems to be important, but the effect is yet to be quantified.
Free HOV, etc Suburban
 Application of the MA3T model to two scenarios. FC_PHEV40_Car 17.8 17.1 15.5 14.9 11.3 8.6 ANL/PSAT LBD o affected by daily VMT distribution and 20% EarlyAdopter o PHEV with smaller battery appears to be more promising.
EV_Car 65.3 52.6 55.4 56.0 40.2 29.4  estimates potential impact of AVT on energy use and GHG emissions. driving behavior, varying by region, FrequentDriver
o ARRA PHEV subsidy included Suburban vs

Market Share (100%)


SI_PHEV10_Trk 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.0 3.9 3.0 EIA/AEO2009 NMNL
Garage o The amount of electricity required even by a large PHEV fleet appears to be a small
o vehicle performance based on PSAT model
SI_PHEV20_Trk 11.0 10.4 9.6 9.5 7.3 5.8  includes impacts of on AVT success. Module Sales Policy area and driver type Urban
Base SI_PHEV40_Trk 22.4 21.4 19.7 19.6 15.2 11.8 Maker 15% NoWorkRecharge fraction of the existing generation capacity.
case o costs based on DOE Multi-path study FC_PHEV10_Trk 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.0 3.1  provides a tool for evaluation of program benefits (e.g. VTP) and R&D
NHTS2001  refueling and recharging accessibility cost SouthAtlantic vs
Stock MiddleAtlantic o About 50% reduction of petroleum use or tailpipe CO2 emissions can be achieved by
FC_PHEV20_Trk 11.9 11.2 10.7 10.1 7.8 6.2 Model  policies
o calibrated to AEO 2009 Reference Updated directions UCD Availability 2050 if battery technologies meets the FreedomCAR goals on schedule while
FC_PHEV40_Trk 24.8 23.2 22.1 20.9 16.1 12.3
EV_Trk 91.2 71.1 79.0 78.8 57.1 43.3
PHEV Survey o purchase subsidy, tax credit, HOV 10% Reference Segment
o ARRA PHEV subsidy included is open for update and re-calibration as we learn more from PHEVs, Fuel and
hydrogen technologies do not.
EVs and FCVs, technologies that are still unfamiliar to consumers.
Technology access, free parking, etc FrequentDriver
PHEVSuccess o both performance and costs based on Battery Cost in 2005 USD Range & Fuel Availability Risk Electricity Use
 vehicle-to-grid costs and revenues
6. AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
vs ModestDriver
case DOE FreedomCAR program goals
Source: Base case based on DOE Multi-path Study, PHEV
 1,458 market segments divided by region (9 census divisions), 5%
Success case based on FreedomCAR Goals Refuel&Recharg o implemented but not reflected in the EarlyAdopter vs
Base PHEVSuccess residential area (urban, suburban, rural), technology attitude (early adopter, Infrastructure  Parameterization
 Results for each scenario by region, area, driver Technology 2010 2015 2045 2010 2015 2045 early majority, late majority), driver types (moderate, average, frequent input Tailpipe and current scenario runs LateMajority Garage vs no parking
SI_PHEV10_Car 4,466 3,156 1,754 2,089 997 369 Vehicle Usage Lifecycle GHG 0% o Price elasticity
type, technology attitude, home/work recharge driver), home recharge availability (garage, off-street, neither) and work output  greenness (placeholder)
availability, and vehicle technology:
SI_PHEV20_Car 8,010 5,768 3,274 3,720 1,789 683
recharge availability (with, without) feedback
and Scrappage
ANL/GREET  home backup power 2010 2015 2020 2025 o Value of fuel savings
SI_PHEV40_Car 14,375 10,811 6,170 6,617 3,248 1,292

o market penetration and sales FC_PHEV10_Car 4,858 3,402 1,938 2,186 1,026 382
 model availability o Value of refueling and recharging convenience
FC_PHEV20_Car 8,897 6,389 3,648 3,997 1,911 733  use parameters that are calibrated based on consensus estimates from
o vehicle stock FC_PHEV40_Car 15,981 11,981 6,970 7,158 3,402 1,380 previous studies, theory, and assumptions  technology risk o V2G
EV_Car 48,950 31,548 20,771 22,400 10,060 4,410  Market segment data
o use of gasoline, diesel, hydrogen and electricity  battery replacement cost Vehicle Sales and Fuel Use, Base Case
SI_PHEV10_Trk 6,256 4,359 2,530 2,950 1,429 534  include a considerably wide but expandable range of vehicle and Model Calibration
o tailpipe CO2 emission SI_PHEV20_Trk 11,385 7,989 4,625 5,230 2,529 1,004
consumer attributes  acceleration o Early adopters
EIA/AEO 2008 Ref Updated MA3T Projection
o fuel and recharge availability SI_PHEV40_Trk 20,200 15,014 8,877 9,387 4,575 1,884 25 10 Home or work recharging
FC_PHEV10_Trk 6,665 4,551 2,712 3,016 1,454 558 14  cargo space SI P10 Others o
o experience-determined vehicle price
 consider daily VMT distribution and driver variation 14
SI HEV Car SI P10
FC_PHEV20_Trk 12,278 8,608 5,168 5,577 2,701 1,067 12  towing 9 o Driver and driving distributions
FC_PHEV40_Trk 22,293 16,223 9,925 10,041 4,833 1,976
12
LTK LTK

L. Truck Sales (million)


Car Sales (million)
EV_Trk 68,389 42,660 29,638 31,504 14,269 6,499
10 10  Including buy or no buy choice
8 20 CI Conv 8
Vehicle Price in 2005 USD Choice Structure Buy LDV 8
 Life-cycle GHG (GREET)

Fuel Demand (MBOED)


Vehicle Urban Fuel Economy 6 6 LTK
Sensitivity to Energy Price 7  Vehicle range sensitive to fuel availability

Annual Sales (Million)


Source: Base case based on DOE Multi-path Study, PHEV urban only, unadjusted, EV in Wh/mile, else in MPGGE
Car LD Truck 4 4
Success case based on FreedomCAR Goals Vehicle Choice Coding Source: ANL/PSAT
2 2 Ref Oil and High Oil correspond to Reference and 15 SI HEV Car 6  Your generous advice !
Fully-Learned Vehicle Price: Base Case, Car Urban Fuel Economy: Base Case, Car
x_x_Car one of the 13 passenger car technologies Conv/HEV Hydrogen EV 0 0 High Oil cases in EIA/AEO 2009
120

Urban Fuel Economy


100 x_x_Trk one of the 13 light-duty truck technologies 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 5
7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
100 9

Annual Vehicle Sales (million)


(2005 USD)

80 SI_Conv_x conventional spark-ignition gasoline (MPGGE) HEV H2 ICE


vehicles
80 5 350 Base case 10 SI Conv LTK 4

LD Vehicle Population (million)


60
60 300
CI_Conv_x conventional compression-ignition diesel 6

Vehicle Use (billion VMT)


40 SI HEV CI HEV FC HEV 4
 Phil Patterson, Jacob Ward, U.S. Department of Energy
40 250 3
vehicles
20 20 3
non-plug-in hybrid vehicles 200
2010 2015 2030 2045
x_HEV_x
2010 2015 2030 2045 Conv FC PHEV 5 2  Tim Cleary, Sentech, Inc.
Fully-Learned Vehicle Price: PHEVSuccess, Car
x_PHEV#_x plug-in hybrid vehicles with #(=10/20/40) Urban Fuel Economy: PHEVSuccess Case, Car 2 150 3 SI Conv Car
SI_PHEV20 SI_PHEV40 miles rated all-in-electricity range 120 SI_Conv
FC_PHEV40 CI Conv SI Conv H2 FC PHEV10 100 1  Sujit Das, Oak Ridge Natonal Laboratory
60
Urban Fuel Economy

SI_PHEV10 FC_HEV FC_PHEV20 1


SI_PHEV10 H2_Conv
H2_Conv_x hydrogen-powered internal combustion 100
CI_Conv SI_PHEV20
H2_Conv FC_PHEV10 50
CI_HEV FC_HEV
 Aymeric Rousseau, Steve Plotkin, Dan Santini, Argonne National Laboratory
(2005 USD)

SI_HEV
50 engine vehicles
SI_PHEV40
0 0 0
(MPGGE)

SI_HEV FC_PHEV10 CI_HEV 0 0


CI_Conv FC_PHEV20 80 SI PHEV H2 FC PHEV20
40 SI_Conv FC_PHEV40 FC_x_x vehicles with PEM fuel cell as the power 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2005 2020 2035 2050 2005 2020 2035 2050  Ken Kurani, Tom Turrentine, University of California, Davis
EV 60
30
source SI PHEV10 SI PHEV20 SI PHEV40 H2 FC PHEV40 EV w/ High Oil EV w/ Ref Oil
40
EV_x battery_only_powered vehicles H2 w/ High Oil H2 w/ Ref Oil
20 20
2010 2015 2030 2045 2010 2015 2030 2045
NMNL Theory  jkl cijkl PHEV SI w/ High Oil PHEV SI w/ Ref Oil Electricity Consumption
Base PHEVSuccess Base PHEVSuccess Technology Attitude e 9
Vehicle Sales and Fuel Use, PHEVSuccess Case PHEV Success case

Annual Vehicle Sales (million)


pi| jkl 
 pi| jkl  
Technology 2010 2015 2045 2010 2015 2045 Technology 2010 2015 2045 2010 2015 2045 Conditional probability of choice i in nest j =
SI_Conv_Car 21,541 21,583 23,186 22,485 22,946 23,823 SI_Conv_Car 32.3 34.4 43.5 41.0 42.7 49.0
Perceived Risk of New Technology by Adopter Group
car/truck, k = Conv/H2/EV and l = 1 e  jkl chjkl PHEV Success case
25 10
140
US total
Other SI
PHEV,

Electricity Consumption
CI_Conv_Car 24,637 24,408 25,450 25,055 25,118 25,420 CI_Conv_Car 37.0 38.4 45.0 42.6 46.1 53.5 $15 i 6 Other Other 120 electricity
technology type is a function of a price Car &

(billion kWh/year)
h consumption is
SI s

Risk (1000 $/Vehicle)


SI_HEV_Car 27,759 26,305 26,242 26,109 24,451 24,046 SI_HEV_Car 50.1 52.4 61.5 60.7 69.6 86.9 100
9 3,873 billion LTK

p
sensitivity parameter βjkl and
1
CI_HEV_Car 31,045 29,203 28,632 28,826 26,714 25,742 CI_HEV_Car 54.9 56.6 67.7 66.4 75.8 93.9 $10 EV LTK kWh, according
80 to DOE/EIA EV LTK
SI_PHEV10_Car 31,416 28,351 26,951 27,421 24,856 23,912 SI_PHEV10_Car 53.3 56.0 63.8 63.1 72.0 88.4 generalized cost cijkl. i| jkl 3 20 CI EV Car Base Total 8 Mareket Performance by Adopter
SI_PHEV20_Car 36,814 32,396 29,248 29,917 26,070 24,389 SI_PHEV20_Car 53.1 55.4 63.7 62.8 71.9 88.6 $5 i 60 EV Car

Fuel Demand (mboed)


Conv SI P10 PHEV Success case
SI_PHEV40_Car 46,576 40,100 33,733 34,376 28,347 25,297 SI_PHEV40_Car 51.8 54.2 62.3 61.6 70.8 88.6 7 40
SI P10 SI P10 LTK

Annual Sales (million)


EA=Early Adopter; EM=Early Majority; LM=Late Majority
H2_Conv_Car 29,680 27,892 28,243 29,680 27,892 28,243 H2_Conv_Car 26.5 31.3 35.9 26.5 31.3 35.9
$0 The generalized cost cijkl is a function of 0 20 Car
FC_HEV_Car 39,032 34,235 30,640 38,155 33,076 29,334 FC_HEV_Car 67.9 76.6 86.2 67.9 76.6 86.2 technology attributes xzijkl and the 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 15 6
FC_PHEV10_Car FC_PHEV10_Car
-$5 SI 0 2.5 15%
40,890 34,885 30,773 36,882 31,320 28,438 69.2 78.1 85.4 69.2 78.1 85.4 attribute weight (or value) wzjkl.
FC_PHEV20_Car FC_PHEV20_Car 0 1 2 3 4 5 P10 5 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
47,154 39,427 33,491 39,805 32,709 29,119 68.3 77.1 84.5 68.3 77.1 84.5

= Likelihood to Buy PHEV


FC_PHEV40_Car 58,244 48,245 38,558 45,010 35,376 30,173 FC_PHEV40_Car 66.4 75.0 82.6 66.4 75.0 82.6 Stock on the Road (million)
Impact of PHEV Subsidy 10 SI HEV 4 2
EA likelihood
10%
EV_Car 95,266 67,792 51,835 54,870 35,152 26,427 EV_Car 268.3 253.0 229.2 229.5 197.7 161.3 Chicken-n-Egg

Market Penetration
SI_Conv_Trk 24,364 24,338 26,282 24,305 24,792 25,559 SI_Conv_Trk 24.1 26.1 30.2 31.5 32.4 37.5 9 LTK Where the Market Goes

Annual PHEV Sales (million)


Driving and Driver Distribution Recharge Availability and PHEV Stock SI

PHEV Sales (million)


CI_Conv_Trk 26,619 26,197 27,321 26,933 26,844 27,079 CI_Conv_Trk 29.1 30.4 33.1 33.3 35.9 41.1 0.035
Driver Type 3 PHEV Success case, year 2015
8 Conv SI HEV 1.5 5%
SI_HEV_Trk SI_HEV_Trk 120% 12 Rural Suburban Urban Sales (thousand)
32,362 30,267 29,417 29,601 27,056 26,115 35.0 37.0 41.7 41.8 47.9 56.9 Daily VMT Distribution 0.030 Modest Driver X = Γ(1.68, 14.11) 7 EM likelihood
PHEVSuccess
5 Car 2 0 20 40 60 80 100

PHEV Stock (million)


Recharge Availability
CI_HEV_Trk 34,895 32,527 31,238 31,773 28,967 27,624 CI_HEV_Trk 39.5 41.3 47.3 47.0 53.2 62.4

probability density
0.018 0.025 100% Availability 10 PHEVSuccess PHEVSuccess
SI_PHEV10_Trk SI_PHEV10_Trk
6 01_NENG
37,837 33,394 30,787 31,698 27,923 26,112 37.2 39.5 43.7 43.6 49.2 57.8 0.016 40 mile CD range w/ ARRA w/o ARRA
1 0%
Average Driver X = Γ(1.90, 23.20) 80% 8 1 LM likelihood
probability density

0.020 5
SI_PHEV20_Trk 45,649 38,939 34,032 35,204 29,616 26,842 SI_PHEV20_Trk 36.9 39.2 43.3 43.3 49.0 57.6 0.014
PHEVSuccess SI Conv 02_MATL
LM Sales
0.012 0.015 4
SI_PHEV40_Trk 59,100 49,711 40,539 41,665 32,781 28,196 SI_PHEV40_Trk 36.3 38.3 42.5 42.4 48.2 57.2 60% Stock 6 Car 03_ENCL
H2_Conv_Trk H2_Conv_Trk
0.01 0.010 Frequent Driver X = Γ(1.80, 43.05) Base w/ 0 0
33,024 32,010 32,104 33,024 32,010 32,104 20.9 24.4 27.8 20.9 24.4 27.8 mostly electricity, 40%
3 04_WNCL
0.5 -5%
0.008 Base Stock 4 ARRA 2005 2020 2035 2050 2005 2020 2035 2050
FC_HEV_Trk 47,656 40,225 36,057 46,655 38,859 34,505 FC_HEV_Trk 47.2 54.7 58.1 47.2 54.7 58.1 little gasoline 0.005 2 05_SATL
0.006 Base w/o EM Sales
FC_PHEV10_Trk FC_PHEV10_Trk 20% 2
50,350 41,736 36,438 44,877 37,091 33,207 47.9 55.1 57.6 47.9 55.1 57.6 0.004 gasoline and 0.000 1 ARRA 06_ESCL
FC_PHEV20_Trk FC_PHEV20_Trk electricity, Base Availability EA Sales
59,082 48,120 40,335 49,031 39,259 34,183 47.3 54.4 56.9 47.3 54.4 56.9 0.002 0 50 100 150 200 250 0% 0 07_WSCL 0 -10%
battery fully 0
FC_PHEV40_Trk 74,907 60,010 47,846 56,528 42,924 35,921 FC_PHEV40_Trk 45.9 53.0 55.5 45.9 53.0 55.5 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 08_MNTN
EV_Trk 127,311 86,852 67,202 70,829 43,305 31,080 EV_Trk 391.7 364.1 345.6 340.2 295.5 255.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
X = Daily Vehicle Usage (mile) 2005 2020 2035 2050 2010 2015 2020
09_PCFC
Daily Vehcle-miles-traveled