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Bell FX Currency Outlook Australian Dollar / US Dollar

The AUD has had a record night again during the offshore session pushing
through the previous post-float high which was only seen on Friday night;
hitting a new high of USD1.0314. 1.05

Australia: It has since retreated back and is currently trading at USD1.0240. 0.80
Some mixed data out of the US left investors unsure about the economic 0.70

recovery in the region and saw the USD weaken, which allowed the AUD to 0.65
continue to gain on positive market sentiment and as investors demand for high M ay-05 M ay-06 M ay-07 M ay-08 M ay-09 M ay-10 M ay-11
risk, high yielding assets such as the AUD continue to grow. Even weaker
commodity prices did little to dampen the AUD as oil, gold and metals were all
softer. As positive news came out of Libya that rebel forces are in control of most
of the major oil terminals, concerns over supply saw the price of oil weaken 1.6% Today’s Forecast Range
at USD103.76/barrel. With a lack of local influential local data due out today, it’s
likely that the AUD will continue to track closely with equity markets and prevailing
USD 1.0220 – 1.0295
market sentiment. The only top tier data to be released in Australia this week is Currencies Last High Low
Retail Sales for February, which the Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce
AUD / USD 1.0240 1.0314 1.0228
on Thursday.
USD / JPY 81.70 81.84 81.31
EUR / USD 1.4079 1.4115 1.4021
Majors: As mentioned above, data out of the US overnight was mixed. US
housing spending data unexpectedly surprised on the upside while the Dallas GBP / USD 1.5988 1.6039 1.5937
manufacturing index, which in recent times has been very strong, actually posted NZD / USD 0.7505 0.7553 0.7489
results which were below market expectations. With the recent poor housing data AUD Crosses Last High Low
out of the US, concerns were mounting on the likelihood of a recovery in the
sector. Pending home sales increased 2.1% and while this may indicate some AUD / JPY 83.65 84.22 83.24
stabilization, continued improvement in the other housing sector indicators would AUD / EUR 0.7266 0.7324 0.7273
need to be seen before there is talk of any sustained recovery. The Dallas
AUD / GBP 0.6399 0.6449 0.6386
Manufacturing index fell 11.5 points compared to an expected increase of 0.9
points; which contradicts positive manufacturing data seen in other regions. The AUD / NZD 1.3637 1.3728 1.3597
EUR/USD erased most of Monday’s losses as ECB President Trichet said the AUD / CAD 1.0013 1.0119 1.0004
central bank is on track to raise interest rates in April with the hope that it may
AUD / CHF 0.9385 0.9489 0.9384
make euro assets more attractive than their US counterparts. While the move by
the ECB is believed to be an attempt to fight higher commodity prices, many Australian Rates Last Previous
investors are more focused on the benefits of rising interest rates, than on any Official Cash 4.75
damage that may come from struggling peripheral European economics. The
EUR/USD has opened just shy of USD1.4100. 3 Month Bill 4.93 4.90
10 Year Bond 5.51 5.44
US Rates Last Previous
Economic Calendar
29 MAR US Consumer Confidence MAR Fed Funds 0.25
JPN Jobless Rate & Retail Trade FEB 3 Month Libor 0.307 0.308
10 Year Bond 3.433 3.44
Commodities Last - / + (%)
Gold (US$ / oz) 1419.73 -0.7
Important Disclaimer – This may affect your legal rights: This publication has been issued on the
basis that it is only for the information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided Oil (US$ / bbl) 103.76 -1.56
by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange
(ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not intended for CRB Index 354.86 -1.31
public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Equities Last - / + (%)
Information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to
be both reliable and accurate, and no responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may ASX 200 4733 -0.19
have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in nature, and does not take
into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does Dow Jones 12212 -0.1
not constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations
(expressed or implied), and is not an invitation to take up securities or other financial products or FTSE 5904 0.1
services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without seeking expert financial
advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am
Nikkei 9479 -0.6
Sydney. Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require latest pricing and ranges.

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