What Should the ASEAN

Countries do to Counter China

in the West Philippine Sea?

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Five Years After the Tribunal Award:
Peace, Security and Freedom in the South China [West Philippine] Sea
4th Virtual International Conference on South China [West Philippine] Sea
hosted by National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea
Webinar, Manila, The Philippines
July 30, 2021
 Outline
1. The Problem
2. Continue to Engage China
3. Caucus of South China Sea Littoral States
4. Prioritize Illegal, Unreported, Unregulated Fishing
5. Operationalize ASEAN Coast Guard
6. Challenge China’s Narrative and Lawfare
7. Work with Dialogue Partners
8. Constraints
 1. The Problem
• China illegally lays claim to features in the South China Sea
on the basis of ‘historic rights’
• Chinese flagged vessels violate the sovereign jurisdiction of
littoral states’ Exclusive Economic Zones and continental
shelves
• Illegal fishing, illegal surveys
• China permanently stations China Coast Guard vessels in the
littoral states’ EEZs and harasses legitimate oil and gas
commercial operations
 2. Continue to Engage China
• Use diplomatic channels to constantly assert national
sovereignty on a daily basis
• Lodge diplomatic protests after each and every violation of
nation sovereignty and sovereign jurisdiction
• Conduct bilateral discussions with China
• Continue to cite international law
• Object to China’s use of lawfare
• Challenge China’s narrative on ‘historic rights’
 3. Caucus of Littoral States
• Note distinction between littoral and claimant states
• Form an informal caucus inside ASEAN
• Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam [Brunei?]
• Coordinate common positions and actions
• Ensure views included in ASEAN Chair’s Statements
• Lobby for ASEAN Plus 4 (Quad) Dialogue (parallel to ASEAN
Plus 3)
• Raise China’s grey zone tactics at international fora
 4. Prioritize
Illegal Unreported Unregulated Fishing
• Illegal Unreported Unregulated Fishing (IUUF) is a major
economic and security problem for ASEAN littoral states
• Raise urgency in ASEAN
• IUUF among ASEAN members
• IUUF by Chinese flagged vessels
• Intensify and coordinate gathering and reporting data on
Chinese fishing boats, province of origin, ownership, and
market for illegal fish
• European Union’s ban on import of illegally caught fish
• Yellow and red cards
 Draft Code of Conduct (2018)
Option 2: [ID, SG]
3. Pending a comprehensive and durable settlement of their disputes,
the Parties concerned may explore or undertake cooperative
activities. These may include the following:
1. marine environmental protection;
2. marine scientific research;
3. safety of navigation and communication at sea;
4. search and rescue operation; and
5. combating transnational crime, including but not limited to
trafficking in illicit drugs, [ID: illegal fishing,] piracy and armed robbery
at sea, and illegal traffic in arms.
 5. Operationalize ASEAN Coast Guard
• ASEAN Coast Guard Forum to ASEAN Coast Guard Meeting
• Step up bilateral cooperation among littoral states
• Get ASEAN’s house in order
• Delimit maritime boundaries
• ASEAN Coast Guards enhance cooperation
• Training, human resource development, capacity building
• Standard operation procedures and interoperability
• Conduct joint anti-IUUF operations
• visit, board, search and seizure
 6. Challenge China’s Narrative and Lawfare
• Develop a whole-of-nation information strategy
• Cultivate journalists
• Develop a littoral states’ common information campaign
• Embed journalists and analysts on maritime operations
• ExposeChina’s grey zone operations at international fora
• ASEAN meetings, Non-Aligned Movement, UN General Assembly
• Counter China’s lawfare – national legislation
• Fund research to counter China’s ‘historic rights’ assertions
 7. Work with Dialogue Partners
• Multilateral cooperation – Japan & United States
• Donation of Coast Guard vessels
• Training and joint exercises
• ASEAN Coast Guard Meeting Plus
• ASEAN Plus Four (Quad)
• Pre-emption – occupy maritime space prior to commencement of
commercial activities
• Cooperation to address a major regional security issue is not the
same at taking sides amidst China-U.S. rivalry and competition
 8. Constraints
• ASEAN consensus decision-making
• ASEAN Chairs Brunei (2021) and Cambodia (2022) are
reactive, not proactive
• Myanmar will replace the Philippines as ASEAN Country
Coordinator for China (2021-24)
• Myanmar Crisis will continue to distract and divide ASEAN
• Chinese economic and political retaliation
• COVID-19 will remain a continuing and a long-term factor
 What Should the ASEAN
Countries do to Counter China
in the West Philippine Sea?

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Five Years After the Tribunal Award:
Peace, Security and Freedom in the South China [West Philippine] Sea
4th Virtual International Conference on South China [West Philippine] Sea
hosted by National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea
Webinar, Manila, The Philippines
July 30, 2021