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April 1st 2011

Winners & Losers


After a month of catastrophic events in Japan, raging tensions in the Middle East, and the soaring
energy prices, the top stocks for March are CAT with 16.38% gains, CVX which surged 15.12%, PFE
and T, which rose 11.9% and 11.35%, respectively, and at the fifth spot, DIS with 10.91% increase.

At the losing side, CSCO led with a plunge of 18.06%, HPQ with 9.98% of losses, and MSFT which
declined 8.54%.

CAT has established its position again as one of the Dow 30’s best performers. For the full first
quarter, CAT gained 18.89%, CVX is number two with 17.8%, and the drug manufacturer PFE
collected 15.99% while XOM at the fourth with 15.06%. AA and DIS were nearly at par with each
other, gaining 14.75% and 14.88%, respectively.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index slipped on Thursday to 12,319.73 and
1,325.83, respectively. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged 4.28 points higher to
2,781.07.

The market seemed to prefer waiting on the sidelines as the March job data will be released this
Friday. Based on the ADP employment report released earlier this week, the NFP is more likely to
edge lower although it is not a big secret that this data often pulls out some surprising results. Paired
with the NFP data is the unemployment rate. This time around, a strong payroll report may boost the
market’s belief that the Fed will indeed stop its QE2 soon. Last Wednesday, ADP employment showed
a decline in private employment from 217K to 201K. The market anticipated a rise of 205K. For the
payrolls, the market consensus lies at 178K, down from 192K. As for the unemployment rate, the
March rate is seen ticking higher to 9% from 8.9%.

Another major data – although not as popular as NFP – is the ISM for manufacturing. For March, the
index is seen edging higher to 61.6 from 61.4. Another data of lesser influence set for release is the
construction spending for February. Spending is seen to have risen 0.4% from a slide of 0.7% in
February.

From Eurozone, the test results conducted in Ireland revealed that the banks there will need 24B euros
which will put all of the banks under the state control. As for inflation, the latest inflation report
suggested that the ECB may finally raise the interest rates next week. CPI in the Eurozone has jumped
2.6% in March, well beyond the ECB’s mandate to keep the inflation below 2%. In Portugal, the
country’s budget deficit was reported at 8.6% of GDP, well above the government target of 7.3%.
On the other hand, Portugal will hold general election on June 5th.

1 .DJI 12,319.73 (-30.88 ● -0.25%) .SPX 1,328.26 (-2.43 ● -0.18%) .IXIC 2,776.79 (+4.28 ● +0.15%)
April 1st 2011

Corporate News
BA strings of new orders continued on Thursday with a government contract worth $258.3M for
basic C-17 Globemaster III sustainment partnership. New orders for 777s also reported in the
weekly update with GE Capital Aviation ordering 10 777s, and another two by unidentified
customer. WTO said that BA received a total of $5.3B in illegal subsidies from US states and the
federal government as well as municipalities. As a result, BA’s rival EADS’s Airbus lost sales and
revenue. WTO asked the US government to work on this matter or completely eliminate the
subsidies.
BAC has been reported as using Fed’s discount window three times during August 2007 for
borrowing about $500M.
CAT agreed to work together with BAE Systems to develop parallel hybrid propulsion system for
heavy-duty trucks.
IBM has been selected by the Cameroon Ministry of Finance to help modernize payroll systems.
JPM borrowed around $5.9B from the Fed discount window over six months according to the
revealed Fed data.
MCD increased imports in Japan to deal with disruptions hitting its supply chain due to the massive
earthquake.
MSFT sent complaint to the European regulators on GOOG.
UTX’s subsidiary, Pratt & Whitney, has been awarded a contract extension worth $6.8M from the
USAF. The extension will see an extension of fleet management program for F100-PW-220E
engines and will span for 18 months. Also, UTX received order from IndiGo India for its
PW1100G engines, while IndiGO also appointed Pratt & Whitney to provide the maintenance
service for these engines.
WMT CEO Bill Simon said that US consumers are facing serious inflation in the months ahead.
WMT however, according to Simon will use scale to hold prices lower longer, despite inflationary
pressures and the retailing giant will have the lowest prices in the market.

2 .DJI 12,319.73 (-30.88 ● -0.25%) .SPX 1,328.26 (-2.43 ● -0.18%) .IXIC 2,776.79 (+4.28 ● +0.15%)
April 1st 2011

Stock Focus: International Business Machines, Corp.

IBM
Last Mar 31st Resistances 164.06 164.90 167.72 170.33 180.75
163.07 0.32% Supports 161.15 159.35 157.90 156.45 154.60
WTD MTD Outlook
0.55% 2.42%
NEUTRAL
YTD 12-Month
11.11% 27.15% Comment BUY dips to 161.15, PT 170.33, risk < 156.45

IBM is still eyeing the $180.75, but recent price development suggests that the stock may see a dip
towards $161.15 before it could launch another attempt to return to the $167.72 peak. Below
$156.45 may see another setback.

3 .DJI 12,319.73 (-30.88 ● -0.25%) .SPX 1,328.26 (-2.43 ● -0.18%) .IXIC 2,776.79 (+4.28 ● +0.15%)
April 1st 2011

Price Performance - as of Mar 31st 2011


Code Last Dy WTD MTD YTD 12-Mos
AA 17.66 0.11% 3.34% 9.49% 14.75% 24.02%
AXP 45.20 -1.55% -0.86% 3.06% 5.31% 9.55%
BA 73.93 0.18% 0.80% 6.79% 13.29% 1.82%
BAC 13.33 -0.89% -0.07% -1.99% -0.07% -25.32%
CAT 111.35 -0.16% 2.07% 16.38% 18.89% 77.17%
CSCO 17.15 -1.04% -0.75% -18.06% -15.22% -34.11%
CVX 107.49 -0.48% 0.66% 15.12% 17.80% 41.75%
DD 54.97 -0.72% 1.61% 9.31% 10.20% 47.61%
DIS 43.09 -0.60% 0.28% 10.91% 14.88% 23.43%
GE 20.05 -0.30% 1.52% -0.74% 9.62% 10.16%
HD 37.06 -1.36% -0.96% 0.98% 5.70% 14.56%
HPQ 40.97 -0.80% -3.67% -9.98% -2.68% -22.92%
IBM 163.07 -0.32% 0.55% 2.42% 11.11% 27.15%
INTC 20.18 -1.37% -0.93% -5.96% -4.04% -9.47%
JNJ 59.25 -0.22% 0.46% -1.27% -4.20% -9.13%
JPM 46.10 -0.75% 0.52% 3.50% 8.68% 3.02%
KFT 31.36 -0.38% 0.32% 2.72% -0.48% 3.70%
KO 66.34 0.45% 1.72% 6.64% 0.87% 20.62%
MCD 76.09 0.37% 1.12% 3.83% -0.87% 14.04%
MMM 93.50 1.11% 1.33% 6.93% 8.34% 11.88%
MRK 33.01 -0.87% 1.35% -0.18% -8.41% -11.62%
MSFT 25.39 -0.86% -0.90% -8.54% -9.03% -13.32%
PFE 20.31 -0.15% -0.20% 11.90% 15.99% 18.43%
PG 61.60 -0.60% 1.18% -4.05% -4.24% -2.64%
T 30.61 -0.33% 6.10% 11.35% 4.19% 18.46%
TRV 59.48 0.15% 0.85% 6.58% 6.77% 10.27%
UTX 84.65 0.50% 1.35% 3.95% 7.53% 15.00%
VZ 38.54 0.21% 3.35% 8.17% 7.71% 24.24%
WMT 52.05 -0.59% -0.57% -8.20% -3.49% -6.38%
XOM 84.13 -0.43% 0.61% 6.51% 15.06% 25.60%

4 .DJI 12,319.73 (-30.88 ● -0.25%) .SPX 1,328.26 (-2.43 ● -0.18%) .IXIC 2,776.79 (+4.28 ● +0.15%)
April 1st 2011

Analysts' Upgrades & Downgrades


Ratings Price Target
Code House
Previous Current Previous Current
INTC FBR Capital Market Perform Market Perform $27.00 $25.00
PG Goldman Sachs Buy Buy - $75.00
n Sector-wide n Upgrade n Downgrade n Initiation

US Economic Calendar
Date Time Report Period Actual Forecast Previous
28-Mar 8:30 AM Personal income Feb 0.3% 0.4% 1.2%
28-Mar 8:30 AM Consumer spending Feb 0.7% 0.6% 0.2%
28-Mar 8:30 AM Core PCE price index Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
28-Mar 10:00 AM Pending home sales Feb 2.1% n/a -2.8%
29-Mar 9:00 AM Case-Shiller home prices Jan -1.0% n/a -1.0%
29-Mar 10:00 AM Consumer confidence March 63.4% 62.3 72.0
30-Mar 8:15 AM ADP employment March 201K 205K 217K
31-Mar 8:30 AM Jobless claims 26-Mar 388K 380K 382K
31-Mar 9:45 AM Chicago PMI March 70.6% 68.9% 71.2%
31-Mar 10:00 AM Factory orders Feb -0.1% 0.5% 3.1%
1-Apr 8:30 AM Nonfarm payrolls March 178K 192K
1-Apr 8:30 AM Unemployment rate March 9.0% 8.9%
1-Apr 8:30 AM Average hourly earnings March 0.2% 0.0%
1-Apr 10:00 AM ISM March 61.6% 61.4%
1-Apr 10:00 AM Construction spending Feb 0.4% -0.7%
1-Apr TBA Motor vehicle sales March 13.1 mln 13.4 mln

Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell or to buy any securities. This
report has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but there is no assurance or guarantee regarding its
completeness and accuracy. The author accepts no responsibility or liability arising from any use of the report.

5 .DJI 12,319.73 (-30.88 ● -0.25%) .SPX 1,328.26 (-2.43 ● -0.18%) .IXIC 2,776.79 (+4.28 ● +0.15%)