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Gaurav Singh R.B.T.T.I., Bareilly

Hypothesis

Hypo- Less Then Hypo Thesis- view or theory Thesis It is a tentative explanation or solution. It is declarative testable relationship between two or more variables. A hypothesis is the assumption that we make about the population parameter. This can be any assumption about a population parameter not necessarily based on statistical data.

**Hypothesis: Not Necessary inin
**

Fact finding studies Exploratory researches In historical researches (theoretical) But in all Analytical and experimental researches, hypothesis should be formulated.

Characteristics

Conceptually clear Testable Economic and parsimonious Related to existing body of theory and facts. Logical unity and comprehensiveness

General in scope Related to available scientific tools and techniques Tentative answer to the proposed problem Operational Specific but not trivial or inconsequential

Types of hypothesis

Based on function:

Descriptive Relational

Based on approach:

Working null Statistical

**Based on level of abstraction
**

Common sense Complex Analytical

Descriptive

It describes the characteristics of a variable.

The customer satisfaction level is significantly good among the Hero Honda owners. Public enterprises are more amendable for centralized planning.

Relational

It describe the relationship between two variables.

The Families with higher income spend more for recreation. The lower the rate of job turnover in a work group, the higher the work productivity.

Working hypothesis

Initial hypothesis Not very specific These are subject to modification as the investigation proceeds.

Null Hypothesis

Null means no difference It is a non directional hypothesis. It is also known as Statistical Hypothesis It confirms the qualities of detachment and objectivity. Null hypothesis are more exect. either it is accepted or rejected.

If rejectedrejected-

**Alternative hypothesis formulated.
**

One tailed & Two tailed

Statistical hypothesis

Statements about statistical population. These are derived from a sample. It may be hypothesis of difference or hypothesis of association. In broad sense, all hypothesis might be said statistical hypothesis in broad sense.

**Common sense hypothesis
**

These are common sense ideas. These are simple level hypothesis.

Shop assistants in small shops lacks motivation. Shoulders from upper class are less adjusted in the army then lower class men.

**it requires three tasks:
**

Removal of value judgment Clarification of terms Application of validity tests

Complex hypothesis

It aims at testing the existence of logically derived relationships between empirical uniformities. These are purposeful distortions of empirical exactness. The function of such hypothesis is to create tools and problems for further research in otherwise very complex areas of investigation.

Analytical hypothesis

These are concerns with the relationship of analytical variables. These occur at highest level of abstraction.

e.g. there are two high fertility population segments in India, viz. low income urban Muslims and low income rural low caste Hindus.

Sources of hypothesis

Theory Observation Analogies Intuition AND personal experiences Findings of studies State of knowledge Culture Continuity of reserch

Functions of hypothesis

It gives a definite point too the investigation. It guides the direction of study. It specified the source of data. It determines the data needs. It defines which fact is relevant. It determines most appropriate technique of data analysis. It contributes to the development of theory.

**Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis
**

Conceptual clarity Specificity Testability Availability of technique Theoretical relevance Consistency Objectivity Simplicity

Evaluating hypothesis

Have the all aspects of the problem been considered in the process of hypotheses formation? Do the hypotheses include all the pertinent possibilities to answer the research question? Have the hypotheses been selected on the basis of such possibilities? Have the hypotheses selected without fearing the possibilities of tits sustainability? Have conditions at hypotheses selection, allowed the researcher to reach the real solutions of problem?

Are the concepts used in hypotheses specific? Is the posited relationship between the variables verified? Is there any prior evidence as to truth or falseness of posited relationship? Can an appropriate research design be devised? Are the generalizations a part of a theoretical system?

**Process of hypothesis setting
**

For each objective, search the possible answers. It requires searching, delving, trying, failing, and trying again and coming to a conclusion. Then write it in appropriate style. Evaluate these tentative hypothesis and refine them in logical and testable way.

**Rules of hypothesis testing
**

Search the variable measurement with most quantitative characteristics. Make variable scales in mutually exclusive and totally inclusive categories. Describe the meaning of terms operationally in testable form. Always consider alternative operations. Analyze variables through relationship. Link two or more formal propositions through a shared independent or independent varaibles.

Testing the hypothesis

**Procedure of Hypothesis Testing
**

First, state 2 hypotheses, First,

the null hypothesis (³H0´) and the alternative hypothesis (³HA´)

Select an appropriate statistical test Select the desirable level of significance Compute the appropriate statistic from the sample data Compute the significant test value Obtain the critical test value Make the decision

Identification of hypotheses

The null hypothesis always represents the status quo, i.e. the hypothesis that requires no change in current behavior. The alternative hypothesis is the conclusion that the researcher is trying to make. In statistics, we always assume the null hypothesis is true. true.

**Then, make a decision based on the Then, available evidence.
**

If there is sufficient evidence (³beyond a reasonable doubt´), reject the null hypothesis. hypothesis. If there is not enough evidence, do not reject the null hypothesis. hypothesis.

Hypothesis Testing

We generally designate values of the parameter, say Q, under the null hypothesis as Q0.

Hypothesis Testing

Example 1. An ambulance service is 1. considering replacing its ambulances with new equipment. If Q0 is the average weekly maintenance cost of one of the old ambulances and Q is the average weekly maintenance cost it can expect for one of the new ones, it wants to test the null hypothesis Q = Q0.

Hypothesis Testing

(a) What alternative hypothesis should it use if it wants to buy the new ambulances only if it can be shown that this will reduce the average weekly maintenance cost? Answer: Q < Q0. This is called a one-sided onealternative.

Hypothesis Testing

(b) What alternative hypothesis should it use if it is anxious to buy the new ambulances (which have some other nice features) even if they are more costly but has no idea if they are or not. Answer: Q { Q0. This is called a two-sided twoalternative.

Hypothesis Testing

Nulls and alternatives can take the following forms Null Possible Alternatives Q = Q0 Q { Q0 Q < Q0 Q > Q0 Q u Q0 Q < Q0 Q e Q0 Q > Q0

Hypothesis Testing

Now we are going to either reject the null hypothesis or not. In doing so it is important to realize that we can make two types of errors in rejecting the null hypothesis.

Hypothesis Testing

Type I error is rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. Type II error is not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false.

Hypothesis Testing

Accept H0 H0 is true Correct Decision Type II Error Reject H0 Type I Error Correct Decision

H0 is false

Hypothesis Testing

We would commit a Type I error if we rejected the device when it was indeed effective. We would commit a Type II error if we failed to reject the device when it was ineffective.

Hypothesis Testing

We call the probability of type I error, or the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true, E. We call the probability of type II error, or the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false, F.

Hypothesis Testing

F, the probability of type II error, is a difficult concept in the theory. So for this elementary presentation we concentrate on E, the probability of type I error ± the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.

Hypothesis Testing

The first approach to hypothesis testing is traditional. 1. We formulate a null hypothesis and an appropriate alternative hypothesis from the language of the problem.

Hypothesis Testing

2. We specify a probability of type I error by convention. Generally people choose E = .01 or .05. That is to say, we decide that we are willing to tolerate a probability of .01 or .05 of making a type I error, i.e., of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. E is called the significance level of the test.

Hypothesis Testing

3. Based on the sampling distribution of an appropriate statistic, we construct a criterion for testing the null hypothesis against the chosen alternative hypothesis at the specified level of significance. We use a twotwosided criterion for a two-sided alternative and a twooneone-sided criterion for a one-sided alternative. one-

Hypothesis Testing

4. We calculate the value of the statistic on which the decision is to be made. 5. We decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. Essentially we reject the null hypothesis if what we observe is too far from it.

Hypothesis Testing

We call the test one- or two- tailed one- twodepending on whether the criterion (or alternative) is one-sided or two- sided. onetwo-

Hypothesis Testing

Example 2. It has been claimed that on 2. the average 2.6 workers are absent from an assembly line. If an efficiency expert is asked to put this to a test,

Hypothesis Testing

(a) What null hypothesis and what alternative hypothesis should she use? (b) Should she use a one-tailed test or a onetwotwo-tailed test if she is going to base her decision on the mean of a random sample?

Hypothesis Testing

Solution. Solution. (a) The null hypothesis is Q0 = 2.6. If management worries only that more workers are absent then she should use the alternative Q > 2.6. (b) If her alternative is Q > 2.6 then she should use a one-tailed test because the alternative onehypothesis is one-sided. one-

Hypothesis Testing

We illustrate the traditional procedure with an example. In the example, we are dealing with one sample, W is known, and n is > 30.

Hypothesis Testing

Example 3. In a study of new sources of food, 3. it is reported that a pound of a certain kind of fish yields on the average 3.52 ounces of FPC (fish(fish-protein concentrate) used to enrich various food products, with standard deviation W = 0.07 ounces.

Hypothesis Testing

To check whether Q = 3.52 is correct, a dietician decides to use the alternative hypothesis Q { 3.52 ounces, a random sample of size n = 32, and the .05 level of significance. What will she conclude if she gets a sample mean of 3.55 ounces of FPC (per pound of fish)?

Hypothesis Testing

Solution. Solution. The null hypothesis is Q0 = 3.52 ounces, W = .07, n = 32 and _ X = 3.55. _ If the null hypothesis is true then E(X) = Q = Q0 = 3.52. Also from the CLT we know that _ Z = (X - Q0)/(W/sqrt(n)) has approximately a )/(W standard normal distribution.

Hypothesis Testing

Also, the dietician chose E = .05 and a twotwo-sided alternative. That means that in this case ³far away´ is defined as a total of .05 probability in the two tails. From the board drawing you can see that z.025 = 1.96 and - z.025 = -1.96 leave .025 in each tail respectively so a total of .05 in the two tails.

Hypothesis Testing

So the statistician rejects the null hypothesis if the observed value of Z under the null hypothesis is in either tail, i.e., > 1.96 or < -1.96. But the observed value of Z under the null hypothesis is _ (X - Q0)/(W/sqrt(n)) = )/(W (3.55 ± 3.52)/(.07/sqrt(32)) } 2.42.

Hypothesis Testing

Since 2.42 is in the right tail, i.e., > 1.96 the observed mean 3.55 is too far away from the null hypothesized mean 3.52 and so the dietician must reject the null hypothesis.

Hypothesis Testing

In the previous example the dietician chose E = .05 for her level of significance for her two-tailed test so that the rejection tworegion was the right tail > 1.96 and the left tail < -1.96.

Hypothesis Testing

Had she chosen E = .01 then the rejection region would have been the right tail beyond Z.005 = 2.575 and the left tail below - Z.005 = -2.575. Since the value of her observed statistic was Z } 2.42 for this choice of E she would have failed to reject the null hypothesis while for E = .05 she rejected it.

Hypothesis Testing

So rejection or not of the null hypothesis depends crucially on choice of E, the probability of rejection given that the hypothesis is true that one is willing to tolerate. And the choice of E is essentially by convention.

Hypothesis Testing

The conventional (some would say arbitrary) nature of E choice and the dependency of rejection or not on that choice have led to a slightly different approach to hypothesis testing. The first two of the five steps are the same as before.

Hypothesis Testing

The second approach to hypothesis testing is called the p-value approach. pThe first two of the five steps are the same as before. 1. We formulate a null hypothesis and an appropriate alternative hypothesis from the language of the problem.

Hypothesis Testing

2. We specify a probability of type I error by convention. Generally people choose E = .01 or .05. That is to say, we decide that we are willing to tolerate a probability of .01 or .05 of making a type I error, i.e., of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. E is called the significance level of the test.

Hypothesis Testing

Now we have steps that differ from those in the traditional approach. 3¶. We specify the test statistic. 4¶. We calculate the value of the specified test statistic from the data and then find the tail probability value in the table that corresponds to that value of the test statistic. We call that value the p-value. p-

Hypothesis Testing

5¶. We compare the p-value obtained in pstep 4¶ with the level of significance specified in step 2. If the p-value is less pthan or equal to the level of significance, the null hypothesis must be rejected.

Hypothesis Testing

Example 4. Use the p-value approach to redo pexample 3. Solution. Solution. The first two steps are the same. 3¶. Again, the test statistic is_ Z = (X - Q0)/(W/sq rt(n)). )/(W 4¶. Calculating the value of that statistic gives Z = (3.55 ± 3.52)/(.07/sqrt(32)) } 2.42.

Hypothesis Testing

Now we go to the Z table and see what probability values are left in the two tails by the points Z = -2.42 and Z = 2.42. We find that .5 - .4922 = .0078 is left in the right tail by Z = 2.42 and the same amount is left in the left tail by Z = -2.42. So the p-value of the result is .0078 + .0078 = p.0156.

Hypothesis Testing

Since .0156 is < .05 the null hypothesis is rejected at the .05 level but since .0156 is > .01 the null hypothesis is not rejected at the .01 level. Thus the p-value is actually the lowest plevel of significance at which the null hypothesis would be rejected.

Hypothesis Testing

Researchers nowadays prefer the p-value papproach because they can publish the p-value pand let individual readers decide what significance level they feel comfortable with and so whether they want to reject the null hypothesis or not. The p-value approach allows presearchers to avoid choosing a conventional significance level for others.

Hypothesis Testing

Example 5. A horticulturist knows from 5. experience that the honeybees visiting her orchard weigh .87 gram on the average. average. Feeling that this year¶s honeybees look bigger, she decides to weigh a random sample of n = 50 of the bees all together and she gets an average weight of .91 grams per bee with s = .15 gram.

Hypothesis Testing

Using the .01 level of significance, what can she conclude about her impressions that this year¶s bees are larger?

Hypothesis Testing

Solution. Solution. We use the p-value approach. p1. H0: Q = .87 HA: Q > .87 2. E = .01 _ 3. Z = (X - Q0)/(s/sqrt(n)) 4. Z = (.91 - .87)/(.15/sqrt(50)) = 1.89.

Hypothesis Testing

Since we use a one-sided alternative we oneuse a one-tailed test. From the Z table onewhen Z = 1.89, there is .0294 in the right tail so that is the p-value. p5. Since p = .0294 > .01 we cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Hypothesis Testing

Example 6. A random sample of n = 12 6. graduates of a secretarial school typed on the average _ X = 78.2 words per minute with a standard deviation of s = 7.9 words per minute.

Hypothesis Testing

Assuming that such data can be looked upon as a random sample from a normal population, use the one-sample t test to onetest the null hypothesis Q = 80 words per minute against the alternative hypothesis Q < 80 words per minute of this secretarial school. Use the .05 level of significance.

Hypothesis Testing

Solution. Solution. We use the p-value approach. p1. H0: Q = 80 HA: Q < 80 2. E = .05 _ 3. t= (X - Q0)/(s/sqrt(n)) 4. t =(78.2 - 80)/(7.9/sqrt(12)) = -.79.

Hypothesis Testing

Degrees of freedom are 12 ± 1 = 11. So from the t table we see that for t = -.79 with degrees of freedom 11 there is probability > .10 in the left tail (see drawing on board). So the p-value is > .10. p5. So since p >.10 > .05 we can¶t reject the null hypothesis.

Hypothesis Testing

So far we have tested hypotheses about population means using either the Z or t tables, depending on what information we had. If n is large, it is also possible to test hypotheses about population proportions using the Z table.

Hypothesis Testing

Example 7. In a random sample of 600 7. cars making right turns at a certain intersection, 157 pulled into the wrong lane. Test the claim that 30% of all drivers make this mistake, using (a) .05 level of significance (b) .01 level of significance

Hypothesis Testing

Solution. Solution. (a) We use the traditional approach 1. H0: p = .3 HA: p { .3 2. E = .05 3. Z = (p - p0)/sqrt[p0 (1 ± p0)/n]. Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or z > 1.96 4. Z = [(157/600 - .3)]/sqrt[(.3)(.7)/600] } -2.05 5. Since ±2.05 < -1.96 reject null hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing

Solution. Solution. (b) We use the traditional approach. 1. H0: p = .3 HA: p { .3 2. E = .01 3. Z = (p - p0)/sqrt[p0 (1 ± p0)/n]. Reject H0 if z < -2.575 or z > 2.575 4. Z = [(157/600 - .3)]/sqrt[(.3)(.7)/600] } -2.05 5. Since ±2.05 > -2.575 can¶t reject null hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing

Note. Note. The standard normal distribution used in the previous example, and in others of its type, will give an accurate result only if p0 s 3sqrt[p0(1 - p0)/n] does not include 0 or 1. 3sqrt[p In that example n was 600 and p0 was .3 so p0 s 3sqrt[p0(1 - p0)/n] = .3 s 3sqrt[(.3)(.7)/600] = 3sqrt[p .3 s .017 which does not include 0 or 1 so the result reported in the example should be accurate.

**General Idea of Hypothesis Testing
**

Make an initial assumption. Collect evidence (data). Based on the available evidence, decide whether or not the initial assumption is reasonable.

**Generally used tests for hypotheses testing
**

Parametric tests:

Z scores t- test F test ANOVA ChiChi-square test Yate¶s correction The median test The Mann Whitney test The Sign test

Non parametric test

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