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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)


Published online 29 May 2007 in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.1512

Climate variability in Jordan


Muwaffaq Freiwana * and Mikdat Kadioǧlub
a Jordan Meteorological Department, PO Box 341011, Amman 11134, Jordan
b Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 80626 Istanbul,
Turkey

ABSTRACT: Climate variability in Jordan is very sensitive to water resources, which are at the verge of depletion because
annual per-capita water is at one of the lowest levels in the world. In order to address such sensitivity, it is necessary
to examine effective meteorological factors such as annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation and extreme (maximum
and minimum) temperature time series. Fourteen representative meteorological stations are chosen for the study of climate
variability calculations in Jordan. Annual and monthly time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures
are tested by the runs (Swed–Eisenhart) homogeneity test. Consequently, the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall
rank trend and the linear trend tests are applied to the interannual means, coefficient of variation and skewness parameters.
Signals of climate trends such as warming in maximum temperature, more statistically significant warming in minimum
temperature, decreasing trends in daily temperature range and statistically insignificant decreasing precipitation trends are
detected, which are enhanced by heat island, urbanization, pollution and aerosols effects. Two spells are recognized in
the time series, where the first spell started in the early 1970s and the second beyond the year 1992 with a warming
trend in maximum temperature and a farther warming in minimum temperature resulting in a decreasing trend in the
diurnal temperature range that is associated with a slight decrease in precipitation. The interannual coefficient of variation
of maximum and minimum temperatures reveals increasing trends in the majority of the stations while they exhibit an
apparent decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range and a general, but insignificant, decreasing trend in precipitation is
observed. Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS climate variability; coefficient of variation; homogeneity test; Jordan; Kriging; kurtosis; Mann–Kendall trend
test; skewness
Received 26 June 2006; Revised 6 January 2007; Accepted 4 February 2007

1. Introduction has been a small positive (1%) global trend in precip-


itation over land during the 20th century. Precipitation
Continuously increasing human activities especially in has increased over lands in high latitudes in the north-
the second half of the 20th century started to affect the ern hemisphere especially during the cold season con-
composition of the atmosphere to a significant extent. comitant with temperature increases (Houghton et al.,
Emission of pollutants increases the concentration of 1992).
the long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and Local and regional long-term temperature and precip-
leads to global warming (Friedly et al., 1986; Lorius itation records are used in climate variability investiga-
et al., 1990). Trend becomes the most commonly used tions. In climate assessment studies, trends are statistical
technique to detect climate variability in regional and fundamental tools in the detection of climate variabil-
local basis (Dickinson, 1989; Balling, 1992; Kadıoǧlu, ity.
1997). Global surface temperature has increased by Climate change studies were restricted to North Amer-
about 0.3–0.6 ° C since the late 19th century and about ica, Europe and Australia in the near past because of the
0.2–0.3 ° C over the last 40 years in the 20th century data availability. However, Karl et al. (1993) analysed
(Houghton et al., 1995). The recent warming has been monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures
greatest over the continents between latitudes 40 ° N from countries comprising 37% of the global landmass.
and 70 ° N. Temperature range has decreased globally They found that the minimum temperature increased over
in the second half of the 20th century. Since nights the period 1951–1990 by 0.84 ° C (0.56 ° C) compared to
became warmer more than days, minimum tempera- only 0.28 ° C (0.33 ° C) increase in maximum tempera-
ture increase has been about twice compared to max- tures.
imum temperature increase. On the other hand, there Over the Indian Continent Nizamuddin (1995) dis-
cussed the spatial and temporal variability of pre-
cipitation during the northeast and southwest mon-
* Correspondence to: Dr. Muwaffaq Freiwan, Jordan Meteorolog-
ical Department, PO Box 341011, Amman 11134, Jordan. E- soons. He observed that the monthly and seasonal
mail: mfreiwan@yahoo.com analyses indicate some areas of great variability and

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society


70 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

extreme rainfall occurrences, which lead to flood disas- temperature were not always consistent and signifi-
ters. cant.
In the light of increasing population growth and con- The climate change scenarios expect a reduction of
tinuous depletion of the available water resources in a precipitation of about 20–25% in the dry season (April to
country located at the fringe of the desert, the studies of September) and 10–15% in wintertime with temperature
climatology and climate change are important. There are decrease about 1.5 ° C in Jordan during the current half of
comprehensive studies in Jordan about vulnerability and the century (Ragab and Prudhomme, 2002).
adaptation to climate variability for investigating climate In this study, the number of investigated stations is
change, environment, water resources, housing and set- more than in the previous works, to represent all the
tlement constructions, economy, agricultural and indus- topographic and climatic regions, and to cover as large
trial issues (UNDP, 1999 and Abandeh, 1999). Hasanean as possible, the Jordan Valley. As an effective technique,
(2001) investigated the trends and periodicity of surface the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall rank trend
air temperature series from eight meteorological stations test is applied not only to time series themselves, but
in the east Mediterranean using different correlation tests. also to their statistical moments in order to detect climate
He found a significant positive trend at 99% confidence variability in the statistical parameters, such as the means,
in Malta, Jerusalem and Tripoli, and negative trend at coefficient of variation and skewness. The homogeneity
95% confidence level in Amman. The trends exhibit an of the monthly and yearly precipitation, maximum and
increase (decrease) around 2 ° C (1 ° C) in minimum (max- minimum temperature time series have been tested by
imum) temperature at Amman. the runs (Swed–Eisenhart) test. Linear trend and the
Cohen and Stunhill (1996) studied the climate change sequential version of the Mann–Kendall rank trend tests
in Jordan Valley by analyzing the daily records of max- are also applied to the time series of precipitation and
imum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and global maximum, minimum as well as daily temperature range
irradiance at three stations located in the northern, in addition to their interannual statistical parameters. In
central and southern parts of the valley. They found order to discuss the spatial and temporal distribution
no significant trends in annual rainfall, but maximum of the trends, the seasonal and annual Mann–Kendall
and diurnal temperature range have decreased signifi- statistics of 14 precipitation and temperature stations are
cantly in the three stations, while trends in minimum also illustrated in maps using Kriging method.

33.5 Mediteranean
Iraq
Sea
Syria
33.0

BAQURA
32.5 IRBED RUWAISHED
Israel
RAS80MUNEEF
0 MAFRAQ
and DEIR ALLA SAFAWI
2000
400

32.0 Palestinean JORDUNIV


AMMAN
Territories 800
QAIA
0

31.5
-20
0
-40

ERRABBA
600

31.0 GHOR SAFI


00 JORDAN
2000 800
4 0 1000
100
30.5 SHOUBAK
AL JAFR
MAAN
Saudi
30.0
60

800 Arabia
0

Sinai AQABA
29.5

Red
29.0 Sea

35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 1. Location and elevation (meters above m.s.l) of the selected stations.

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 71

2. Data description and homogeneity analysis The data are subject to quality control procedures in
the climate division of Jordan Meteorological Depart-
Jordan is located about 80 km to the east of the Mediter-
ment (JMD). The data must be tested to avoid spurious
ranean Sea, between 29° 10 N − 33° 45 N and 34° 55 E −
variabilities and trends that may appear and lead to mis-
39° 20 E with an area of 89 329 km2 and a population of
takes in various studies, such as climate variability. Many
5.5 million. It has a unique topography that might not be
researchers have shown ways of eliminating such prob-
found anywhere else. The western part of the country is
lems in their studies (Rodhe and Virji, 1976; Kadıoǧlu,
the worlds lowest valley that lies along a north–south
1997; Ben-Gai et al., 1999; Kadıoǧlu and Aslan, 2000).
direction between two mountain ranges with a length
For instance, Karl and Williams (1987) studied the dis-
of about 400 km, and its width varies from 10 km in
the north to 30 km in the south. Its elevation varies continuous inhomogeneity of the time series by compar-
between 170 and 400 m below mean sea level (m.s.l.). ing the data of a particular station to another one that has
The Jordan River passes through this valley from north a great similarity in weather conditions, by calculating the
to south down to the Dead Sea and comprises approx- ratio of rainfall and differences in temperature between
imately one-third of the border between the territories the two stations. They consider absolute homogeneity if
of Jordan, Palestinian and Israel. The Jordan River is the data compared to a third station have similar clima-
the main source of irrigation in Jordan Valley. Just to tological characteristics. Aesawy and Hasanean (1998)
the east of the Jordan Valley, the north–south mountain applied the shortcut Bartlet test to examine the homo-
range reaches about 1150 m above m.s.l in the north- geneity in seasonal and annual temperature time series
ern parts and about 1500 m above m.s.l in the southern in six stations in the southern Mediterranean including
parts of the Kingdom reaching to its highest peak of Amman station. Especially, in springtime series, some
1854 m in the extreme southern region (Figure 1). To exceptions of homogeneity are found for Alger and
the east of this mountain range is a semi-desert plateau Amman in Jordan. The results of the Mann–Kendall
that extends to cover approximately 80% of the coun- trend test for Amman match with those that have been
try. found in this study.
Among nearly 50 observation stations of Jordan Mete- Despite the persuasive history of the selected stations
orological Department 14 representative stations are cho- in this study, and of the satisfactory common sense
sen to study their trends and climate variability. Time about the homogeneity of the data, the runs test for
series shorter than 30 years length have not been con- randomness is applied to the monthly and annual data of
sidered. Therefore, 14 precipitation stations with record precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at all
lengths ranging between 33 and 78 years, and 14 temper- the stations. Details about this test (which is also called
ature stations with record lengths varying between 30 and Swed–Eisenhart test) can be found in many publications,
78 years are included in the study. In such a selection, such as (Neave and Worthington, 1992).
reliable and long-term record properties are considered It is found that all time series fulfill the 95% confidence
in addition to a rather representative scattering of station level of annual precipitation homogeneity except at
locations and elevations in the west, with two stations Jordan University station with run value as z = 2.69.
in the desert east (Figure 1). Table I shows the station This station is located in the middle of the capital city
information and the data lengths. It is obvious that the Amman and it is one of the highest stations in the central
shortest lengths are 33 and 30 years for the rainfall and part of Jordan (980 m above m.s.l). It has the greatest
temperature records, respectively. rainfall amount in the region (around 500 mm). Since

Table I. Station information and length of temperature and rainfall records (Years).

Station WMO Lat. Long. Elev. Rainfall Temperature


name No.

Amman airport 40 270 31.98 35.98 780 1923-2000 (78) 1923–2000 (78)
Aqaba airport 40 340 29.55 35.00 51 1946–2000 (55) 1959–2000 (42)
Baqura 40 253 32.63 35.62 −170 1968–2000 (33) 1968–2000 (33)
Deir Alla 40 285 32.22 35.62 −224 1953–2000 (48) 1953–2000 (48)
Irbed 40 255 32.55 35.85 616 1938–2000 (63) 1955–2000 (46)
Ma’an 40 310 30.17 35.78 1069 1938–2000 (63) 1960–2000 (41)
Mafraq 40 265 32.37 36.25 686 1942–2000 (59) 1960–2000 (41)
QAIA 40 272 31.72 35.98 722 1952–2000 (49) 1971–2000 (30)
Rabba 40 292 31.27 35.75 920 1952–2000 (49) 1967–2000 (34)
Safawi (H5) 40 260 32.20 37.13 672 1943–2000 (58) 1964–2000 (37)
Shoubak 40 300 30.52 35.53 1365 1938–2000 (63) 1965–2000 (36)
Wadi Duleil 40 267 32.15 36.28 580 1968–2000 (63) 1968–2000 (33)
Ruwaished(H4) 40 250 32.50 38.20 683 1943–2000 (58) 1961–2000 (40)
Al Jafr 40 305 30.28 36.15 865 1948–2000 (53) 1965–2000 (36)

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
72 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

the establishing of the station and the instruments not In this study, the time series of monthly mean pre-
having been changed, the extreme values may affect cipitation, and maximum, minimum and monthly aver-
the normal pattern of the data within the time series age of daily temperatures are analysed in order to
and may show spurious trends, therefore, this station identify meaningful long-term trends by making use
has been excluded from the study. In general, the of the Mann–Kendall statistics. Details about sequen-
seasonal and monthly rainfall data are homogeneous. tial Mann–Kendall rank trend test can be found in
Few individual months, mainly September and October many publications such as (Sneyers, 1990; DeGaetano,
in some stations, are exceptional, which may experience 1996; Türkeş et al., 1996; Kadıoǧlu, 1997; Kadıoǧlu and
no rain in successive several years and receive great Şaylan, 2001; Kadıoǧlu et al., 2001).
amounts of precipitation in other several years and The values ±1.96 (≈ ± 2) of the test are statistically
probably frequent extreme values may affect the run significant at 95% and the values ±2.54(≈ ± 2.5) are
number in the test. Annual maximum and minimum statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
temperature time series fulfill the 90% confidence level Annual and seasonal sequential Mann–Kendall rank
of homogeneity except Jordan University and Ghor Safi. statistics application results of 14 time series are summa-
These two stations have been excluded from the study. rized in Tables II to V. Additionally, the Mann–Kendall
Some stations show randomness in monthly temperature trend statistics of the interannual mean, standard devia-
time series in the summer months. This may be explained tion (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), skewness (SK)
by the extreme temperature values that are frequently and kurtosis (KR) of maximum, minimum and daily tem-
recorded in summer months in several successive years, perature range and precipitation time series are given in
which may appear as a jump. Furthermore, in the summer Tables VI to IX, respectively. In order to identify the
months, maximum and minimum temperatures have an spatial variation of annual and seasonal Mann–Kendall
apparent increase, which is identical to the global and statistics, their interannual statistical moments are calcu-
regional warming that has been observed by Houghton lated through the Kriging technique and the products are
et al. (1992). given in maps (Figures 2–10).
Kriging is a method of interpolation named after
a South African mining engineer named D. G. Krige
3. Trend analysis who developed the technique in an attempt to more
accurately predict reserves. Over the past several decades,
Probably the most common approach is to estimate trends Kriging has become a fundamental tool in the field
by linear regression as well as two-phase regression of geostatistics. It is based on the assumption that
methods (Solow, 1987). Such parametric methods require the parameter being interpolated can be treated as a
the variable to be normally distributed in addition to regionalized variable. A regionalized variable is the
temporal and spatial independence (Plantico et al., 1990; intermediate between a truly random variable and a
Cooter and LeDuc, 1995; Huth, 1999). In order to avoid completely deterministic variable, in that it varies in
disadvantages of the parametric methods, non-parametric a continuous manner from one location to the next,
approaches such as the sequential Mann–Kendall rank and therefore, points that are near each other have a
test is employed in this study. certain degree of spatial correlation, but points that are
The climatic trend is defined as a monotonic increase widely separated are statistically independent (Davis,
or decrease in the average value between the beginning
and the end of an available time series (Olaniran, 1991). Table II. Annual and seasonal trends in maximum temperature.
Among some non-parametric trend tests, the sequential (∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 95% confidence level
version of the Mann–Kendall rank test has the ability and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 99% confidence
to detect the beginning and/or the end of the trend. level).
The Mann–Kendall test is widely used for trend testing,
particularly when many time series are analysed at the Station Yearly Winter Spring Summer Autumn
same time. It has many advantages, among others, of
which, the following points are significant. Amman −2.03∗ −0.22 −1.76 −0.88 −3.39∗∗
Aqaba −1.64 −2.56∗∗ −1.01 −1.07 −1.16
Baqura 2.27∗ 0.42 1.3 2.66∗∗ 1.95
(1) It is free from normal distribution assumptions, Deir Alla −0.62 −0.93 0.21 −1.24 −1.24
(2) It is resistant to effects of outliers and gross data Irbed −1.66 −0.53 −0.99 −1.79 −0.98
errors, Ma’an −0.29 −0.86 0.07 −0.43 −0.36
(3) It allows missing and censored data (as only ranks Mafraq 0.81 −0.07 0.76 0.43 0.07
are used), and QAIA 4.37∗∗ 1.54 2.62∗∗ 4.76∗∗ 2.55∗∗
(4) It also gives the point in time of the beginning of a Rabba 1.73 0.4 0.7 2.06∗ 2.27∗
developed trend. Safawi 3.09∗∗ 0.65 2.33∗ 3.35∗∗ 1.54
Shoubaq 2.12∗ 0.18 1.33 2.26∗ 2.45∗
The Mann–Kendall test is, therefore, directly applica- Wadi Duleil 3.16∗∗ 0.62 1.67 3.72∗∗ 1.21
Ruwaished −0.4 −1.1 −0.23 0.21 −0.75
ble to climatological data for a given month or season
Jafr 0.87 −0.39 0.74 1.24 1.02
(Kadıoǧlu and Aslan, 2000).

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 73

Table III. Annual and seasonal trends in minimum temperature. Table V. Annual and seasonal trends in precipitation. (∗ sign
(∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 95% confidence level indicates significant trends at the 95% confidence level and ∗∗
and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 99% confidence sign indicates significant trends at the 99% confidence level).
level).
Station Yearly Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Station Yearly Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Amman −0.97 −1.57 0.4 – −0.51
Amman 1.58 −0.7 1.18 3.29∗∗ 0.69 Aqaba 0.38 −0.54 −0.25 – −0.01
Aqaba 0.99 −0.79 1.14 2.22∗ 1.59 Baqura 0.25 0.26 −1.12 – −0.22
Baqura −1.08 −0.91 −1.46 1.3 −0.19 Deir Alla 0.04 0.23 −1.08 – 0.25
Deir Alla 4.28∗∗ 2.25∗ 3.2∗∗ 4.59∗∗ 3.4∗∗ Irbed −1.16 −0.55 −0.6 – −0.94
Irbed 1.87 −0.55 2.05∗ 2.57∗∗ 2.0∗ Ma’an 0.17 0.31 −0.69 – −1.06
Ma’an 1.59 −0.77 1.03 1.91 1.24 Mafraq −1.09 −0.98 −0.72 – −1.43
Mafraq 2.63∗∗ 0.33 1.19 3.35∗∗ 2.34∗ QAIA −1.69 −1.39 −2.07∗ – −1.02
QAIA 4.01∗∗ 1.65 2.05∗ 4.55∗∗ 3.84∗∗ Rabba 0.07 0.53 0.26 – −1.07
Rabba −1.58 −2.0∗ −1.78 0.3 −0.98 Safawi −0.33 – −0.69 – 1.23
Safawi 2.43∗ −0.03 1.07 2.48∗ 1.99 Shoubaq −2.2∗ −0.93 −2.25∗ – −0.69
Shoubaq 0.19 −0.58 −0.41 2.04∗ 0.22 Wadi Duleil −0.71 0.75 −2.39∗ – −0.68
Wadi Duleil 2.82∗∗ 0.19 0.03 4.18∗∗ 2.63∗∗ Ruwaished 0.72 0.96 −1.07 – 1.19
Ruwaished 3.47∗∗ 0.21 2.73∗∗ 4.78∗∗ 2.61∗∗ Jafr 0.97 −0.13 0.44 – −0.09
Jafr 4.77∗∗ 2.63∗∗ 2.91∗∗ 4.77∗∗ 4 ∗∗

4. Discussion
4.1. Spatial variability of the annual Mann–Kendall
Table IV. Annual and seasonal trends in diurnal temperature trend statistics
range. (∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 95% confidence
level and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 99% As mentioned in Section 3, in Figure 2–10 the values
confidence level). outside the range ±2 are considered significant trends at
95% confidence level, and similarly, the values that are
Station Yearly Winter Spring Summer Autumn outside the range ±2.5 are considered significant trends
at 99% confidence level. For instance, Figure 2 indicates
Amman −3.52∗∗ 0.04 −2.97∗∗ −4.53∗∗ −3.79∗∗ that many stations expose obvious significant warming
Aqaba −4.76∗∗ −3.3∗∗ −2.33∗ −4.65∗∗ −4.48∗∗ trends in the annual maximum temperature. For instance,
Baqura 3.22∗∗ 2.63∗∗ 2.67∗∗ 1.55 2.63∗∗
QAIA, Safawi and Wadi Duleil indicate increasing trends
Deir Alla −3.75∗∗ −3.0∗∗ −2.06∗ −4.28∗∗ −4.32∗∗
Irbed −3.91∗∗ −0.65 −2.32∗ −4.19∗∗ −2.68∗∗ at the 99% confidence level, while Baqura and Shoubak
Ma’an −2.38∗ −0.72 −0.99 −2.94∗∗ −2.45∗ stations indicate increasing trends at the 95% confidence
Mafraq −1.68 −0.33 −0.29 −1.64 −1.95 level. On the other hand, many other stations have cooling
QAIA 0.2 0.34 0.91 1.73 −2.16∗ trends of the annual maximum temperature, but it is
Rabba 1.62 0.9 1.7 1.05 2.12∗ significant at the 95% confidence level only in Amman
Safawi 1.91 0.71 2.01∗ 2.2∗ −0.31 (−2.03), which may be due to the heat island effect (Oke,
Shoubaq 3.51∗∗ 1.35 2.21∗ 1.28 2.64∗∗ 1973).
Wadi Duleil 0.87 −0.1 1.7 1.55 −0.81 The minimum temperature increasing trends are sig-
Ruwaished −3.54∗∗ −2.02∗ −2.12∗ −3.75∗∗ −2.63∗∗ nificant at 99% confidence level in Deir Alla, Mafraq,
Jafr −3.41∗∗ −2.89∗∗ −2.97∗∗ −4.06∗∗ −2.14∗
QAIA, Wadi Duleil, Ruwaished and Jafr. Safawi shows
a significant increasing trend in minimum temperature
at 95% confidence level. The rest of the stations show
insignificant increasing trends in minimum temperature.
1986). Kriging is a set of linear regression routines, Baqura and Rabba are exceptional, in that these two sta-
which minimizes estimation variance from a predefined tions indicate an insignificant decreasing minimum tem-
covariance model. It interpolates an elevation value perature trend.
for each output raster cell by calculating a weighted Depending on the remarkable increasing trends in the
average of the elevations at nearby vector or database minimum temperatures and the decreasing or slightly
points or nodes. Closer points/nodes are weighted more increasing trends in maximum temperature, the diur-
heavily than more distant ones in the calculation. The nal temperature range is expected to have significant
Kriging method analyses the statistical variation in values decreasing trends. This is what has actually happened and
over different distances and in different directions, to Amman, Aqaba, Deir Alla, Irbed, Ma’an, Ruwaished and
determine the shape and size of the point selection area Jafr stations experienced significant decreasing trends in
as well as the set of weighting factors that will produce the diurnal temperature range, while Baqura and Shoubak
the minimum error in the elevation estimate. The Surfer experienced significant increasing trends. The remaining
software is employed to generate illustration figures using four stations have insignificantly slight increasing trends
the Kriging method. (Figure 2).

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
74 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

33.5 33.5

33.0 33.0

32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0

35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

33.5 33.5

33.0 33.0

32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 2. Mann–Kendall statistics of annual maximum and minimum temperatures, daily temperature range and rainfall. Dot and gray shading
mark regions of cooling and warming (decreasing and increasing trends for temperature range and rainfall) respectively, with a significant
occurrence (95% level).

Table VI. Mann–Kendall trend values of maximum temperature statistical moments. (∗ sign indicates significant trends at the
95% confidence level and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 99% confidence level).

Station Long Lat Mean SD CV SK KR

Amman 35.98 31.98 −2.03∗ 0.07 1.07 1.65 −1.00


Aqaba 35.00 29.55 −1.70 2.83∗∗ 3.20∗∗ −0.47 −1.05
Baqura 35.62 32.63 1.89 1.27 0.87 1.21 −1.15
Deir Alla 35.62 32.22 −0.62 1.46 1.35 −0.44 −0.25
Irbed 35.85 32.55 −1.69 0.12 0.73 −0.46 −0.41
Ma’an 35.78 30.17 −0.34 2.94∗∗ 2.52∗∗ −0.72 −0.43
Mafraq 36.25 32.37 0.81 2.34∗ 1.71 0.25 −0.70
QAIA 35.98 31.72 4.37∗∗ 3.12∗∗ 1.30 1.55 −0.80
Rabba 35.75 31.27 1.68 2.15∗ 0.79 0.55 −0.28
Safawi 37.13 32.20 3.09∗∗ 3.27∗∗ 0.97 0.52 −1.62
Shoubak 35.53 30.52 2.10∗ 3.11∗∗ 1.36 0.25 −1.17
Wadi Duleil 36.28 32.15 3.16∗∗ 3.04∗∗ 1.43 1.49 −1.36
Ruwai 38.20 32.50 −0.44 2.87∗∗ 2.42∗ −0.37 −1.30
shed
Jafr 36.15 30.28 0.84 2.45∗ 1.64 −0.62 −0.59

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 75

33.5 33.5

33.0 33.0

32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

33.5 33.5

33.0 33.0

32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 3. Seasonal Mann–Kendall statistics of winter maximum and minimum temperatures, daily temperature range and rainfall. Dot and gray
shading mark regions of cooling and warming (decreasing and increasing trends for temperature range and rainfall) respectively, with a significant
occurrence (95% level).

Table VII. Mann–Kendall trend values of minimum temperature statistical moments. (∗ sign indicates significant trends at the
95% confidence level and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 99% confidence level).

Station Long Lat. Mean SD CV SK KR

Amman 35.98 31.98 1.57 4.85∗∗ 2.45∗ 0.73 0.44


Aqaba 35.00 29.55 0.94 3.65∗∗ 2.33∗ −0.14 −0.64
Baqura 35.62 32.63 −1.08 2.51∗∗ 1.98∗ 0.28 1.70
Deir Alla 35.62 32.22 4.28∗∗ 2.22∗ −0.23 −0.23 0.20
Irbed 35.85 32.55 1.83 3.99∗∗ 1.18 −0.80 −0.84
Ma’an 35.78 30.17 1.57 4.27∗∗ 1.28 0.20 −0.13
Mafraq 36.25 32.37 2.58∗∗ 3.80∗∗ 0.31 0.02 −0.11
QAIA 35.98 31.72 4.01∗∗ 3.87∗∗ −1.20 −0.27 −0.91
Rabba 35.75 31.27 −1.24 3.82∗∗ 3.33∗∗ 1.54 −0.47
Safawi 37.13 32.20 2.43∗ 3.56∗∗ 0.68 0.37 −1.05
Shoubak 35.53 30.52 0.16 4.39∗∗ 1.39 0.63 −0.65
Wadi Duleil 36.28 32.15 2.82∗∗ 3.25∗∗ 0.53 1.30 −0.74
Ruwashed 38.20 32.50 3.45∗∗ 4.64∗∗ 0.58 0.19 −0.65
Jafr 36.15 30.28 4.77∗∗ 3.13∗∗ −2.08∗ 0.56 −1.30

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
76 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

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32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

33.5 33.5

33.0 33.0

32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 4. Seasonal Mann–Kendall statistics of spring maximum and minimum temperatures, daily temperature range and rainfall. Dot and gray
shading mark regions of cooling and warming (decreasing and increasing trends for temperature range and rainfall) respectively, with a significant
occurrence (95% level).

Table VIII. Mann–Kendall trend values of diurnal temperature range statistical moments. (∗ sign indicates significant trends at
the 95% confidence level and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 99% confidence level).

Station Long. Lat. Mean SD CV SK. KR.

Amman 35.98 31.98 −3.52∗∗ −4.84∗∗ −3.55∗∗ 1.20 −0.16


Aqaba 35.00 29.55 −4.80∗∗ −0.96 0.51 0.57 −1.03
Baqura 35.62 32.63 3.22∗∗ −0.28 −0.90 2.05∗ 0.37
Dir Alla 35.62 32.22 −3.77∗∗ 0.62 2.93∗∗ 1.97 −0.62
Irbed 35.85 32.55 −3.91∗∗ −2.91∗∗ −2.05∗ 0.84 −0.31
Ma’an 35.78 30.17 −2.38∗ −0.27 0.40 −0.43 0.13
Mafraq 36.25 32.37 −1.68 0.02 0.58 0.61 −0.65
QAIA 35.98 31.72 0.20 0.98 0.84 1.12 −1.27
Rabba 35.75 31.27 1.62 −0.67 −1.02 −0.90 0.22
Safawi 37.13 32.20 1.88 0.21 −0.31 0.31 −0.89
Shoubak 35.53 30.52 3.49∗∗ 1.44 0.65 0.95 −1.47
Wadi Duleil 36.28 32.15 0.84 0.68 0.81 0.71 −0.96
Ruwaished 38.20 32.50 −3.54∗∗ −0.86 0.47 −1.33 0.40
Jafr 36.15 30.28 −3.41∗∗ −0.56 0.46 −0.43 −0.09

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 77

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32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

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29.0 29.0
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33.5 33.5

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32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 5. Seasonal Mann–Kendall statistics of summer maximum and minimum temperatures, and daily temperature range. Dot and gray shading
mark regions of cooling and warming (decreasing and increasing trends for temperature range) respectively, with a significant occurrence (95%
level). Summer season rainfall is approximately zero in all stations so that the trends are zero. Accordingly no trend map can be produced.

Table IX. Mann–Kendall trend values of precipitation statis- It is obvious, as seen from Table V and Figure 2 that
tical moments. (∗ sign indicates significant trends at the 95% the annual precipitation has insignificant increasing or
confidence level and ∗∗ sign indicates significant trends at the decreasing trends in all stations except in Shoubak, which
99% confidence level). experienced a significant decreasing trend at the 95%
confidence level.
Station Long Lat. Mean SD CV SK KR
4.2. The seasonality of the Mann–Kendall trend
Amman 35.98 31.98 −0.98 −1.02 0.14 −0.7 0.03
Aqaba 35.00 29.55 0.38 0.50 0.04 0.17 0.30 statistics
Baqura 35.62 32.63 0.25 0.15 −0.22 −0.43 −0.65 In winter season, no significant maximum temperature
Deir Alla 35.62 32.22 0.04 −0.39 1.16 1.08 0.76 trends have been found except in Aqaba (Figure 3).
Irbed 35.85 32.55 −1.16 −1.10 −0.93 −0.46 −0.61 Increasing trends have appeared in winter minimum
Ma’an 35.78 30.17 0.17 0.27 0.30 0.43 0.52 temperature in the arid region (Jafr) and in the Jordan
Mafraq 36.25 32.37 −1.12 −0.92 0.97 0.58 0.63
Valley (Deir Alla). Generally, decreasing trends of the
QAIA 35.98 31.72 −1.69 −2.83∗∗ −1.47 −1.60 −1.60
Rabba 35.75 31.27 0.07 −0.59 −1.16 −1.29 −1.31 diurnal temperature range in winter season are also
Safawi 37.13 32.20 −0.33 −0.10 −0.03 −0.09 −0.19 obvious in several stations. From the same figure, it is
Shoubak 35.53 30.52 −2.20∗ −2.35∗ 0.47 0.15 0.04 clearly seen that none of the stations show a significant
Wadi 36.28 32.15 −0.74 0.06 2.01∗ 1.52 1.52 trend in winter season precipitation. Warming trends
Duleil in minimum temperature appear at the majority of the
Ruwai 38.20 32.50 0.72 1.09 0.57 0.22 0.22 stations, resulting in an apparent decrease in the winter
shed diurnal temperature range (Figure 3), except Baqura,
Jafr 36.15 30.28 1.00 0.81 −1.27 −0.74 −0.66 which reveals a significant increasing trend at the 99%
confidence level.

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
78 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

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30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
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33.5 33.5

33.0 33.0

32.5 32.5

32.0 32.0

31.5 31.5

31.0 31.0

30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 6. Seasonal Mann–Kendall statistics of autumn maximum and minimum temperatures, daily temperature range and rainfall. Dot and
gray shading mark regions of cooling and warming (decreasing and increasing trends for temperature range and rainfall) respectively, with a
significant occurrence (95% level).

The general trend of spring and autumn precipitation in minimum temperatures with remarkable significance
appears in the form of a decreasing trend. However, it is (Figure 5). Accordingly, the summer diurnal temperature
significant only in few stations in spring season namely range reveals a clear decreasing significant trend in most
QAIA, Shoubak and Wadi Duleil stations (Figures 4 and stations.
6). Maximum temperature reveals significant decreasing
trends in few stations such as QAIA, Rabba, Safawi and 4.3. Mann–Kendall statistics of the moments
Shoubak, while Amman is the only station that reveals The sequential version of Mann–Kendall trend statistics
a significant decreasing trend in autumn season. Spring of the interannual mean, SD, CV, SK and KR of maxi-
and autumn minimum temperatures show significant mum temperature time series are given in Table VI, and
increasing trends in the majority of the stations. The the spatial variations of these statistics are illustrated in
values of increasing minimum trends in spring and the contour maps in Figure 7. The interannual maximum
autumn are greater in comparison with the spring and temperature shows a significant warming trend in many
autumn increasing maximum trends. Consequently, the sites, but a significant cooling trend has appeared only in
diurnal temperature range in these two seasons indicates Amman.
a clear decreasing trend in the majority of the stations. The SD measures the degree of variability or dispersion
In summer season, some stations show slightly insignif- of a variable. Therefore, the larger the SD, the greater
icant increasing trends in maximum temperature, but is the departure from the mean value, and accordingly,
significant warming trends appear in many other sta- a higher probability of recording extreme values. All
tions such as Baqura, QAIA, Safawi, Shoubak and stations experienced increasing trends in the SD of
Wadi Duleil. All stations reveal obvious warming trends the maximum temperature time series. However, it is

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 79

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29.0 29.0
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30.5 30.5

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29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 7. Mann–Kendall statistics of interannual maximum temperature statistical moment. Dot and gray shading mark regions of decreasing
and increasing trends respectively, with a significant occurrence (95% level).

significant in the stations located in the eastern and mean value, which can be attributed to the obvious
southeastern arid region, where they are more exposable increase in the maximum temperature in summer more
to experience extreme temperature values. than in other seasons.
In order to compare the variations at two or more The interannual minimum temperature reveals increas-
time series, it is convenient to use a dimensionless ing trends at most of the sites (Figure 8). All stations
magnitude such as coefficient of variation (CV). The experienced increasing trends in the SD of the mini-
highest increasing trends of the CV are apparent in the mum temperature time series. The increasing CV trends
southern and eastern arid areas, which explain the high imply more interannual variability of the minimum tem-
probability of recording extreme values. perature, which may amplify the minimum temperature
The interannual maximum temperature is negatively difference between the warm parts (summer and autumn)
skewed, because autumn season is 3 to 4 ° C warmer and the cold parts (winter and spring) of the year. The
than spring season. The Mann–Kendall trend values obvious significant increase in minimum temperature in
of SK are around zero (Figure 7). Accordingly, no summer and autumn versus the slight increase in winter
important change is expected to occur in interannual SK, and spring, may prove this allegation.
and consequently, in interannual maximum temperature The interannual SK of minimum temperature is very
distribution. close to symmetric normal distribution. The Mann–Ken-
The interannual KR of maximum temperature is gener- dall trend statistics exhibit an insignificant increasing
ally negative, because the distribution has a smaller con- trend in most stations (Figure 8). It may increase the con-
centration probability near the mean. The Mann–Kendall centration of probability below the mean, and increases
statistics of interannual KR exhibit insignificantly decre- the chance of extreme record occurrences.
asing trends. This implies an increase in the inter-annual Owing to the smaller concentration of probability near
maximum temperature departure from the interannual the mean, the interannual KR is platykurtic (negative).

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
80 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

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29.0 29.0
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31.5 31.5

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29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 8. Mann–Kendall statistics of interannual minimum temperature statistical moment. Dot and gray shading mark regions of decreasing
and increasing trends respectively, with a significant occurrence (95% level).

Negative or insignificantly decreasing trends of the inter- SK means more concentration of the diurnal temperature
annual KR coefficient are detected by the Mann–Kendall range near lower values (below the interannual mean)
trend test. This means that the probability is going to that emphasizes the decrease of the diurnal temperature
concentrate far away from the mean value. It could be range, which is a logical result in the light of the pre-
attributed by the different rates of increasing minimum vious discussion related to the maximum and minimum
temperatures during different seasons. temperatures.
The interannual diurnal temperature range reveals It is clearly seen from Figure 9 that the Mann–Kendall
decreasing trends in most stations, which is the natural trends of the interannual KR of diurnal temperature range
result of the increasing interannual minimum temperature are near zero. However, the majority of them are insignifi-
and the increasing (but at a smaller rate) of the interannual cantly negative trend values. The decreasing negative KR
maximum temperature. implies less concentration of probability near the mean,
Figure 9 shows that the interannual CV of the daily and consequently, a wide band of variation for the diurnal
temperature range is near zero at all sites except at temperature range is expected to be enhanced.
Irbed and Amman in the north and at Deir Alla in The interannual mean of precipitation reveals insignifi-
the Jordan Valley. The decreasing CV of the daily cantly decreasing Mann–Kendall trends in most stations.
temperature range results from the decrease in maximum It is significant at 90% level only in Shoubak (Figure 10).
temperature, and the obviously significant increase in No significant trend has been detected in CV of the inter-
minimum temperature occurs in the two largest cities of annual precipitation, thus the large CV of precipitation
Jordan, namely, Amman and Irbed. Such an increase can is expected to dominate the eastern and southern parts,
be attributed to the heat island and urbanization, pollution and low CV of precipitation is expected to prevail over
and greenhouse gases. the high lands. In other words, the aridity or drought is
The interannual SK of the diurnal temperature range expected to remain as a characteristic of the southern and
shows some increasing trends (Figure 9). The increasing eastern regions of the country.

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 81

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29.0 29.0
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33.5 33.5

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31.5 31.5

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29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 9. Mann–Kendall statistics of interannual diurnal temperature range statistical moment. Dot and gray shading mark regions of decreasing
and increasing trends respectively, with a significant occurrence (95% level).

Neither SK nor KR of the interannual precipitation stations are Irbed (northwest), Amman Airport (eastern
have revealed any significant Mann–Kendall trend. There city Centrum), Shoubak (from the southern heights), Deir
are some decreasing insignificant trends in SK in the Alla (from the middle part of Jordan valley), Aqaba
central and southern arid regions that probably may (a coastal city from the extreme south) and finally
increase the drought (Şen, 1998) in these regions such Ruwaished (from the eastern desert area) (Figure 1).
as QAIA, Jafr and Rabba. There are some insignificantly The parametric linear trend methods require the data to
increasing trends in skewness that probably may cause be normally distributed. Otherwise, such methods are not
extreme precipitation and floods in areas such as Wadi suitable to detect trends. To reveal the advantages of the
Duleil (Figure 10). non-parametric sequential version of the Mann–Kendall
The KR coefficient of the interannual precipitation has trend test, which is free from the normal distribution
the same pattern of SK and the same properties that assumption, sequential version of the Mann–Kendall
emphasize the above explanation for the related stations. trend values of precipitation, maximum temperature,
The high KR values coincide with higher positive SK minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range
values, and the lower or negative KR values coincide time series, and consequently, the linear trends of the
with negative SK leading to the same influence. same time series during the same period are plotted in
Figures 11 to 16.
4.4. Climate variability investigations in selected Figure 11 shows that precipitation and maximum tem-
locations perature exhibit decreasing trends, but minimum temper-
Six stations are chosen from different topographic and ature exhibits a clear increasing trend, and consequently,
climatic regions in order to illustrate their sequences of the daily temperature range reveals an obvious decreasing
u (ti ) and u (ti ) values, and to compare these statistics trend. Since the linear trend is not able to detect the begin-
with linear trends of the related climatological variables ning of the trends, the Mann–Kendall test apparently
and to discuss their local climatic variability. These detects the beginning and end of the trends. Figure 11

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
82 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

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30.5 30.5

30.0 30.0

29.5 29.5

29.0 29.0
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29.0 29.0
35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0

Figure 10. Mann–Kendall statistics of interannual precipitation statistical moment. Dot and gray shading mark regions of decreasing and
increasing trends respectively, with a significant occurrence (95% level).

also shows that the precipitation in Irbed exhibits a figure also shows that both maximum and minimum tem-
decreasing trend along the whole period (1938–2000). It peratures have a complex behaviour. Maximum tempera-
is significant from 1941 to 1963 and another decreasing ture has a cooling linear trend. Mann–Kendall test shows
trend is seen beyond 1992. several cooling and warming trend patterns, the last trend
Maximum temperature time series of Irbed exhibits a pattern starts in 1965. There is a significant cooling trend
general decrease along the record period (1955–2000), beyond the year 1982, and a slightly increasing trend
but it is significant beyond 1975, and the cooling trend started beyond 1992. Minimum temperature linear trend
becomes less significant beyond 1992. This can be seen shows a slight increase, but Mann–Kendall test detects
from Figure 11 by the warm spell in the maximum several cooling and warming trend patterns of which the
most important is the warming trend that started in 1975.
and minimum temperature time series. The minimum
The diurnal temperature range has a general decreasing
temperature in Irbed shows an obvious warming trend
trend that started to be significant by the year 1992.
starting by the year 1975, and consequently the daily
Both linear and Mann–Kendall trend tests reveal a
temperature range reveals an apparent decreasing trend
clear decreasing trend in Shoubak precipitation time
beyond 1975. This may be considered as a result of series (Figure 13). The Mann–Kendall test has detected
urbanization and heat island effect in Irbed, the second the beginning of the trend as 1946 and it is more
largest city in the country. significant during the period 1954–1967. Maximum
The linear trend shows a slight decrease in Amman temperature time series shows an obvious linear warming
precipitation (Figure 12). The Mann–Kendall test shows trend and the Mann–Kendall test has detected the start
some increasing and decreasing trends in various peri- of the trend in 1972. Slightly increasing linear trend has
ods, but the general pattern of Amman precipitation has been detected in minimum temperature time series, while
a slightly decreasing trend from 1955, and a further Mann–Kendall test shows an insignificant cooling trend.
decreasing trend takes place beyond 1992. The same Consequently, the diurnal temperature range in Shoubak

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 83

900

Mean annual rainfall amount (mm)


4

u(t) and u'(t) of precipitation


800

700 2
600
0
500

400
-2
300

200 -4

19
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
19
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
20 5

98
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
00
Years Years
Mean annual maximum temperature

25

u(t) and u'(t) of maximum temperature


4

24
2

23 0

22 -2

21 -4

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years
Mean annual minimum temperature

14.0
u(t) and u'(t) of minimum temperature

13.0 2

0
12.0
-2

11.0 -4
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years
Annual average of daily temperature range

13.0
6

12.0
u(t) and u'(t) of DTR

2
11.0

-2
10.0

9.0 -6
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years

Figure 11. Linear trends (left) and the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall trend forward and backward statistics (right) of the mean annual
precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures and daily temperature range (° C) at Irbed (1938–2000 for precipitation and 1955–2000
for temperature).

reveals an increasing trend by 1973 and becomes signif- In maximum temperature, it is clearly seen that the
icant gradually beyond 1987 (Figure 13). The increasing warming trends started to appear beyond 1986, but further
trend of diurnal temperature range is contradictory to all warming trends in minimum temperature are also started
other sites, where the range is obviously decreasing. to appear since the beginning of the record. The daily
In Deir Alla the precipitation time series shows a temperature range exhibits an obvious significant decreas-
slightly increasing linear trend (Figure 14). The Mann– ing trend that starts by the year 1964 (see Figure 14). This
Kendall test has detected decreasing trends since the implies that the days are becoming somewhat warmer,
beginning of the record up to the year 1967 then the and the nights are becoming more warm in the Jordan
precipitation series has a monotonic pattern up to 2000. valley.

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
84 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

500
2
450

Mean annual rainfall amount

u(t) and u'(t) of precipitation


400

350

300
0
250

200

150

100 -2

19
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
2096
19
19 0
19
19 0
19 5
19 0
19
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
20 5

00
2
25
3
3
4
45
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
00
Years Years

26
Mean annual maximum temperature

u(t) and u'(t) of maximum temperature


25

24

0
23

22

21 -4
19
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
20 5

19
1924
1927
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
00

99
Years Years
14
Mean annual minimum temperature

u(t) and u'(t) of minimum temperature

6
13

12 2

11
-2
10

9 -6
19
1924
1927
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
19
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
20 5

99
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
00

Years Years
Annual average of daily temperature range

15
6

14
u(t) and u'(t) of DTR

13 2

12
-2
11

10 -6
19
19 3
19 8
19 3
19 8
19 3
19 8
19 3
19 8
19 3
19 8
19 3
19 8
19 3
19 8
19 3
19
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
20 5

2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
98
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
00

Years Years

Figure 12. Linear trends (left) and the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall trend forward and backward statistics (right) of the mean annual
precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures and daily temperature range (° C) in Amman Airport (for the period 1923–2000).

Neither by linear nor by the Mann–Kendall trend Finally, at Ruwaished, which is a station from the arid
test, a consistent significant trend in Aqaba precipitation area, no significantly consistent trend in precipitation time
time series has been detected (Figure 15). Maximum series has been detected (Figure 16). A slightly cooling
temperature reveals an obvious cooling trend along the trend in maximum temperature and more significant and
entire time series. While the minimum temperature has apparent warming trends have occurred in minimum tem-
an insignificant warming trend from 1975, consequently, perature especially beyond 1976, and consequently, a sig-
the daily temperature range has a decreasing trend that nificantly obviously decreasing diurnal temperature range
starts with the onset of the record. trend has been detected especially beyond the year 1970.

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 85

700
4

Mean annual rainfall amount


600

u(t) and u'(t) of precipitation


500 2
400
0
300

200
-2
100

0 -4

19
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
19
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
19 5
19 0
20 5

98
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
00
Years Years
Mean annual maximum temperature

21.0

u(t) and u'(t) of maximum temperature


4

20.0
2

19.0 0

18.0 -2

17.0 -4
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20
65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00
Years Years
7.5
Mean annual minimum temperature

u(t) and u'(t) of minimum temperature

4
7.0

6.5
2
6.0

5.5 0

5.0
-2
4.5

4.0 -4
19 19
19

20
19
19

19
19

90 95
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20
65

70

75

80

85

00

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Years Years 00
Annual average of daily temperature range

15.0
4
u(t) and u'(t) of DTR

14.0 2

0
13.0
-2

12.0 -4
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20
65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years

Figure 13. Linear trends (left) and the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall trend forward and backward statistics (right) of the mean
annual precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures and daily temperature range (° C) at Shoubak (1938–2000 for precipitation and
1965–2000 for temperature).

5. Conclusion and recommendations interannual mean, CV, SK, and KR of maximum, min-
imum, diurnal temperature range and precipitation time
Consequent to the homogeneity testing of the annual and
series. The trends are discussed in yearly and seasonal
monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum tempera-
basis. The most important conclusions can be given as
ture time series of the selected stations for the study, the
follows.
sequential version of the Mann–Kendall rank trend test
and the linear trend test have been applied to the avail-
able representative data in order to detect any trend or • The yearly precipitation time series are homogeneous
climate change in the country. The sequential version of with 95% confidence level except in Jordan University
the Mann–Kendall rank trend test has been applied to the station. Maximum and minimum temperature time

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
86 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

600
4

Mean annual rainfall amount

u(t) and u'(t) of precipitation


500
2
400
0
300

-2
200

100 -4

19
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

5
5
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
9
97
50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00
Years Years

u(t) and u'(t) of maximum temperature


4
Mean annual maximum temperature

32
2
31

0
30

29 -2

28 -4

19
19
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

53
5
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
9
97
53

58

63

68

73

78

83

88

93

98

Years Years
Mean annual minimum temperature

19
u(t) and u'(t) of minimum temperature

18
2
17

-2
16

15 -6
19
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

5
5
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
9
97
50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Year Years
Annual average of daily temperature range

15.0
6

14.0
u(t) and u'(t) of DTR

2
13.0

-2
12.0

11.0 -6
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

19
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
19 7
19 1
19 5
19 9
19 3
50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

5
5
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
9
97

Years Years

Figure 14. Linear trends (left) and the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall trend forward and backward statistics (right) of the mean annual
precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures and daily temperature range (° C) at Deir Alla (for the period 1953–2000).

series are homogeneous with 90% confidence level • No significant trends have been detected in annual pre-
except in Jordan University and Ghor Safi. Accord- cipitation except a decreasing trend at 95% confidence
ingly, these two stations have been excluded from the level in Shoubak station.
study. • In the winter season, no significant trends have been
• The cooling or slightly warming trends in annual max- detected in precipitation and maximum temperature
imum temperature with accompaniment of the obvious time series. General, but insignificant warming trends
warming trends in the annual minimum temperature are obvious in minimum temperature and a general
result in an apparent decrease in the diurnal tempera- decrease in the diurnal temperature range is clearly
ture range in the majority of the stations. noticed.

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 87

100
2

Mean annual rainfall amount

u(t) and u'(t) of precipitation


80

60
0
40

20

0 -2
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20

19
19 6
19 0
19 4
19 8
19 2
19 6
19 0
19 4
19 8
19 2
19 6
19 0
19 4
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00

4
5
5
5
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
9
9
98
Year Years
33.0
Mean annual maximum temperature

u(t) and u'(t) of maximum temperature


4

32.0
2

31.0
0

30.0 -2

29.0 -4

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
91
95
99
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years
Mean annual minimum temperature

19.0
u(t) and u'(t) of minimum temperature

18.0 2

0
17.0
-2

16.0 -4
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
91
95
99
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years
Annual average of daily temperature range

15.0
6

14.0
u(t) and u'(t) of DTR

2
13.0

-2
12.0

11.0 -6
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
91
95
99

Years Years

Figure 15. Linear trends (left) and the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall trend forward and backward statistics (right) of the mean
annual precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures and daily temperature range (° C) at Aqaba (1946–2000 for precipitation and
1959–2000 for temperature).

• In spring, autumn and summer seasons, a slight warm- • The plot of Mann–Kendall test statistics for some
ing is exhibited in maximum temperature, but the stations shows that an evidence of cooling trend in
minimum temperature reveals a significant apparent maximum temperature and an obvious warming in
warming trend in the majority of the sites, resulting minimum temperature have started in the beginning
in a decreasing diurnal temperature range. of 1970s. This matches with the global issues, where
• The general trend in spring and autumn precipitation the 1990s was the warmest decade in the 20th century.
time series is decreasing, but it is significant in • Another spell of probable climate variability is evident
few sites such as QAIA, Shoubak and Wadi Duleil in the last decade of the 20th century, where a slight
stations. decreasing trend in precipitation accompanied with

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
88 M. FREIWAN ET AL.

250
4

Mean annual rainfall amount

u(t) and u'(t) of precipitation


200
2
150

0
100

50 -2

0 -4
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20

19
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00

99
Years Years
Mean annual maximum temperature

29

u(t) and u'(t) of maximum temperature


4
28
2
27
0
26

-2
25

24 -4

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years
Mean annual minimum temperature

13.0
u(t) and u'(t) of minimum temperature

12.0 2

0
11.0
-2

10.0 -4
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
Years Years
Annual average of daily temperature range

18
6
17
u(t) and u'(t) of DTR

16 2

15
-2
14

13 -6
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

Years Years

Figure 16. Linear trends (left) and the sequential version of the Mann–Kendall trend forward and backward statistics (right) of the mean annual
precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures and daily temperature range (° C) at Ruwaished (1943–2000 for precipitation and
1961–2000 for temperature).

warming trends in maximum temperature and more The statement ‘nights in Jordan are becoming warmer
significantly, warming trends in minimum temperature, than days are, with accompaniment of slightly decreasing
and decreasing daily temperature range, are obvious precipitation’ may be an indirect interpretation of the
beyond the year 1992. significant trends found in various climatic time series.
The following recommendations shed light on the
The natural variability of climate could be as large possible future development of this and related studies.
as the actually observed changes. In the case of Jordan,
the time series are usually too short to define a definite • The beginning and end of the real seasons are usually
long-term climatic trend. It might be a good indication to not coincident with the astronomical or meteorological
signal the recent climate variability. seasons. Therefore, it should be more realistic to

Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN JORDAN 89

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Copyright  2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 28: 69–89 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/joc