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SEB Commodities Monthly

Will oil kill the recovery?

5 APRIL 2011

Commodities Monthly

Will oil kill the recovery?
GENERAL
• • •

0-3 M

4-6 M

7-12 M

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
(price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 1 10 1 00 Ind ustrial M tals e Preciou M ls s eta En y erg Ag riculture

While rising oil prices have not yet killed off the global economic recovery, concerns that they may do so are increasing; sharply lower PMIs would clearly signal a risk. Rising ECB and emerging market interest rates are causing money portfolios to diversify away from the USD; we expect dollar depreciation in Q2 to support commodity prices. With hedge funds more exposed to commodities than at their 2008 high, we anticipate increasing volatility, divergence and profit taking.

ENERGY
• • •

0-3 M

4-6 M

7-12 M

We revise our 2011 average Brent price forecast from $ 96/b to $ 103/b due to probable extended geopolitical conflict within the MENA region and further economic recovery. We expect temporary Brent crude rallies to between $ 120125/b on continued political upheaval in MENA. Although not our main scenario, there is a risk that crude oil prices could hit new highs, well above their 2008 peak, if supply from other major producers is threatened.

90 80 jan-10

no 0 v-1

fe 0 b-1

m ar-10

a ug-10

fe 1 b-1

m ar-11
Agricu re ltu

m aj-10

a pr-10

sep-10

d ec-10

Sector performance last month
(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI price indices)
1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

INDUSTRIAL METALS

0-3 M

4-6 M

7-12 M

• •

C m ditie om o s

We expect buying opportunities in coming months due to risk aversion resulting from European sovereign debt problems, instability in MENA, tighter Chinese monetary policy, and the Japanese nuclear crisis. The long term outlook is more bullish due to a strong industrial recovery in the OECD and Japanese reconstruction demand following the earthquake. Our long term view would become more bearish on signs that the OECD recovery was slowing or that China faced anything other than a soft landing.

YT (% D )

M (% /M )

Ind ustria l m ls eta

Eq uitie s

En y erg

PRECIOUS METALS
• • • •

0-3 M

4-6 M

7-12 M
Winners & Losers last month
(%)
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 C coa (U ) o S N ickel S r uga C oppe r Zinc P alladium Platinum C offe (A r.) W at he Tin G old C otton S teel b illets A inium lum C orn S oybeans P er (N ow ordic) Bren t H t. oil (U ) ea S Lead G asoline (U ) S W TI Silver C 2 (EU ) O A N t. gas (U ) a S Po e (C t.) w r on -20

We remain both short- and long term bullish on gold. The negative European sovereign debt spiral is accelerating again while leaders are failing to deliver credible solutions to the crisis. A gradual escalation in political tension in the MENA region and rising OECD inflation provide additional support. While silver prices have run ahead of the sector and risk a downside correction, palladium and platinum may potentially catch up.

AGRICULTURE
• • •

0-3 M

4-6 M

7-12 M

We expect a general downtrend in agricultural commodity prices for the rest of 2011 on clear indications that the current La Niña cycle will be over before the summer. It could however take time for the downside to materialize as grains in general are supported by record low US corn stocks and high ethanol prices. The extension of Ukrainian grain export quotas to July 1 and the possible extension of Russian quotas to October is also adding support to grain prices in the near term.

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Pre ciou s m ls eta

2

a pr-11

jun-10

o kt-10

jan-11

jul-10

Commodities Monthly

General
Historically we see a grim relationship between recessions and the oil price. Major recessions since the 1970s have all been preceded by a substantial rise in the price of oil. On the one hand, there are few signs that the current oil price is set to kill the recovery. US consumer confidence is still rising and neither car sales nor gasoline consumption are showing signs of flagging yet. US consumer spending on energy as a percentage of personal disposable income is increasing but remains well below both recent and previous highs. Sentiment surveys generally indicate continued growth and recovery. On the other hand, concerns over global growth are increasing. The IEA has stated that an economic slump often occurs when fuel expenditure worldwide reaches 5% of global GDP which it did when the global oil price hit $ 95-100/b. A marked decline in leading indicators would warn that recovery and growth are at risk. However, over the next quarter a combination of MENA risk and global growth are once again likely to drive the oil price higher. China still appears to be heading for a soft rather than a hard landing. Authorities are curbing investments in high-end properties while at the same time actively promoting spending on construction of their low-end counterparts, maintaining construction activity and metals consumption. The current softer Chinese growth rate should not surprise the market, being widely discounted for some time. However, we recommend close monitoring for signs indicating that the situation may develop into a harder landing. Metals prices should continue to enjoy support from China avoiding a hard landing, a continued economic recovery in the OECD, some cost push inflation from high or higher oil prices and a potentially weaker USD through Q2-11. But with prices already high and speculative positions substantially long temporary sell-offs are likely. Further upside will therefore be a selective rather than broad based phenomenon. Slow progress in negotiations over the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and increasing debt concerns affecting Portugal and Spain have continued to drive the gold price higher. We see additional upside with problems likely to escalate further and the dollar apparently set to depreciate once again. Hedge funds currently maintain a financial long position in commodities well above their early 2008 high. On that occasion they began selling off their position a full quarter before commodities peaked mid year. We still see further upside for crude oil, gold and a few selected base metals while the agricultural sector should trend lower as the effects of La Niña weaken. The broad based upturn in commodities is coming to an end with divergence, volatility and profit taking ahead.

UBS Bloomberg CMCI
(price index, weekly closing)
10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 00 21 01

JPM global manufacturing PMI
(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 01

OECD composite leading indicators
(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend in industrial production)
15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 20 05

C in h a Eu zo e ro n O C E D U SA R fe n e re ce

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

3

21 01

Commodities Monthly

Crude oil
Crude oil price
We revise our 2011 average Brent price forecast upward from $ 96/b to $ 103/b due to the likelihood of several drawn-out conflicts in the MENA region. The market is therefore likely to retain a substantial geopolitical risk premium at least during Q2-11 with risk skewed to the upside from $ 115/b. We expect an average Brent price of $ 118/b in Q2-11 based on Brent rallying to $ 120-125/b for shorter periods due to a combination of political tension in the MENA region and continued solid growth in demand. However, Brent could easily rally above $ 150/b if the uprising spreads further within the MENA region threatening or restricting oil supply from Algeria, Iran or Saudi Arabia. In such a case (though not our main scenario) global economic recovery could stall as a result of high energy costs. We expect an average Brent crude price of $ 95/b in H2-11 assuming the MENA situation comes under control. Despite the UN sanctioned no-fly zone bolstering the rebels and enabling a start to strikes against Gaddafi’s forces, there is a high risk of a civil war lasting several months as well as potential conflict between rival tribes if and when the dictator is toppled. Yemen has moved several steps closer to civil war as tribes and military units take sides for and against President Saleh. Syria, one of the most totalitarian and closed countries in the region, also faces a full scale uprising with violence escalating after the army was called in to “handle the situation”. The situation in Bahrain continues to deteriorate with underlying tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia surfacing after mainly Saudi Arabian forces from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) entered the country to restore order. Unlike the situation in 2008 when Brent crude peaked at $ 150/b, plenty of reserve capacity remains available (4 mb/d vs. 2 mb/d in 2008) even after compensating for Libyan outage. However, as Libyan oil is superior quality a high quality crude premium already exists which could increase further with refineries ramping up production ahead of the coming driving season. Continued strong recovery signs from the US and Germany as well as a probable Chinese soft landing support a stronger demand outlook. Regarding Q2-11, the dollar looks set to depreciate further with the euro appreciating ahead of probable ECB rate hikes and emerging markets continuing to diversifying away from it. Despite an initially bearish crude oil market reaction to the Japanese earthquake due to risk aversion and the likelihood that the country would suffer a period of lower economic activity, the longer term effects are likely to be rather more bullish. Other power sources must now compensate for nuclear outages while reconstruction generally will require higher oil consumption.
(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00
n

N E WI YM X T IC Bre t E n

US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
37 0

36 0

35 0

34 0 20 06-2 010 av . g 20 10 20 11

33 0

32 0

31 0 j f m a m j j a s o d

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current global crude oil demand estimates
2010 (mb/d) 87.9 86.69 86.39 Revision (kb/d) +100 -30 +50 2011 (mb/d) 89.4 88.20 87.83 Revision (kb/d) +90 +40 +90

IEA EIA OPEC

4

21 01

Commodities Monthly

Energy
WTI futures curve
(NYMEX, $/b)
10 1 19 0 18 0 17 0 16 0 15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 m j-1 a 1 ag 1 u -1

Brent futures curve
(ICE, $/b)
10 2 19 1 18 1 17 1 16 1 15 1 14 1 13 1 12 1 11 1 10 1 19 0 18 0 17 0 16 0 15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0

1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

n v-1 o 1

n v-1 o 2

n v-1 o 3

n v-1 o 1

n v-1 o 2

n v-1 o 3

n v-1 o 4

n v-1 o 4

fe -1 b 2

fe -1 b 3

fe -1 b 4

fe -1 b 2

fe -1 b 3

fe -1 b 4

fe -1 b 5

m j-1 a 1

m j-1 a 2

m j-1 a 3

m j-1 a 4

fe -1 b 5 d

m j-1 a 2

m j-1 a 3

m j-1 a 4

Gasoline and heating oil prices
(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)
40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 5 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 N EXG so e YM a lin N EXH a g o YM e tin il

ag 2 u -1

ag 3 u -1

ag 4 u -1

m j-1 a 5

Gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 j f m a m j j a s o n G so e 2 0 -2 1 a g a lin 0 6 0 0 v . G so e 2 1 a lin 0 1 D istilla fu l o 2 0 -2 1 a g te e il 0 6 0 0 v . D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 1

US natural gas prices
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01

US natural gas futures curve
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)
7 5 ,2 7 0 ,0 6 5 ,7 6 0 ,5 6 5 ,2 6 0 ,0 5 5 ,7 5 0 ,5 5 5 ,2 5 0 ,0 4 5 ,7 4 0 ,5 4 5 ,2 4 0 ,0 3 5 ,7 se -1 p 1 se -1 p 2 se -1 p 3 se -1 p 4 se -1 p 5 se -1 p 6 se -1 p 7 ja -1 n 2 ja -1 n 3 ja -1 n 4 ja -1 n 5 ja -1 n 6 m j-1 a 1 m j-1 a 2 m j-1 a 3 m j-1 a 4 m j-1 a 5 m j-1 a 6 ja -1 n 7 m j-1 a 7

1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

5

m j-1 a 5

ag 1 u -1

ag 2 u -1

ag 3 u -1

ag 4 u -1

Commodities Monthly

Nordic power
Nordic power price
During March the power market was dominated by the Japanese earthquake and the resulting nuclear power crisis. The catastrophe immediately triggered several uncertainties concerning the future for nuclear power in Europe which drove prices of alternative fuels and CO2 higher. Consequently, power prices also increased. In particular the back end of the power curve moved upward. While current support from higher fuel prices is an accomplished fact, the long term effects of the Japanese nuclear situation remain subject to speculation and rumor. Spot prices were high and stable during March, averaging EUR 64.22/MWh, only EUR 0.22/MWh lower than in February. Prices in Sweden were only slightly below at EUR 63.29/MWh. However, the spot price premium to Germany remains very high with German spot prices averaging EUR 54.47/MWh over the same period. Forward prices moved higher in March, especially in the back end of the curve with Q2-11 increasing EUR 1.70/MWh in the same month to close at EUR 56.00/MWh while, during the same period, YR-12 gained EUR 2.40/MWh to close at EUR 50.15/MWh. The German curve moved even more due to the Japanese earthquake while the spread between the markets widened. German YR-12 now trades at a EUR 9.25/MWh premium to its Nordic counterpart even though Nordic spot prices deliver well above Germany month-on-month. Going forward, we expect prices to remain high. The spring flood is likely to start in week 17 and could temporarily result in lower and more volatile spot prices even though the effects are likely to be weaker than normal this year given very low reservoir levels. Despite the possibility that the prompt end of the curve may ease slightly with the spring flood and higher temperatures we expect the back end of the curve to remain strong due to support from high fuel prices and a large hydro balance deficit.
(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01

Continental power price power
(EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01

EUA price
(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
3 5

3 0

2 5

2 0

1 5

1 0

5 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

6

Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
We have a short term neutral view on the industrial metals sector and expect good buying opportunities to emerge based on risk aversion caused by European sovereign debt worries, the MENA uprising, a tighter Chinese monetary policy and potential further radioactive pollution in Japan. Tight Chinese credit is restricting the overall market while, just as it was before the sell-off following the Japanese earth quake the LME index finds it difficult to break through previous highs. However, with buyers sidelined ready to buy on weakness any downturn is likely to prove temporary. The long term outlook is more bullish due to the continued strong OECD recovery and Japanese reconstruction demand. Chinese moves to tighten monetary policy could also ease in H2. We recommend exposure to aluminium and copper. Although the Japanese earthquake had a negative impact on short term industrial metals demand through lower economic activity such effects are normally very short lived. In addition, Japan is a relatively small metals consumer, representing only around 5% of global demand. Indeed, the catastrophe should be long term supportive due to reconstruction requirements. The uprising in the MENA region is mainly a bearish influence on the industrial metals market. High oil prices restrict demand for industrial metals by potentially dampening global economic activity. New record high prices due to an escalation of unrest could trigger a substantial decline in the industrial metal sector. In central Europe and the US, the recovery in industrial activity remains extremely strong with a very positive outlook. Meanwhile, China is in the late stages of its own business cycle. Tightening initiatives appear to have been successful in guiding the country towards a soft landing although the process will remain incomplete until inflation has fallen back substantially, growth is closer to the authorities’ new target rate of 7% and the property bubble has stabilized. In other words, many potential pitfalls remain. Anything but a soft landing in China, the world’s largest metal consumer will have a strongly bearish impact on industrial metal prices.

LME index
(weekly closing)
40 70 40 50 40 30 40 10 30 90 30 70 30 50 30 30 30 10 20 90 20 70 20 50 20 30 20 10 10 90 10 70 10 50 10 30 10 10 90 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 fe -1 b 1 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 21 01

prices Industrial metal prices
(LME, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 ja -1 n 0 Cpe opr N icke l Alu in m m iu Z c in La ed T in

m j-1 a 0

n v-1 o 0

fe -1 b 0

ju 0 l-1

o 0 kt-1

m r-1 a 0

se -1 p 0

ag 0 u -1

d c-1 e 0

a r-1 p 0

ju -1 n 0

LME price and inventory changes last month
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -1 0 -1 1 -1 2

Price (% )

In e to s (% v n rie )

Alu in m m iu

Cpe opr

N icke l

La ed

Zin c

Tin

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

7

Ste l e

a r-1 p 1

Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
Aluminium
• • • Aluminium prices are well supported, reflecting high and rising production costs, e.g. power, labor and alumina. We expect continued improved demand though mainly in the OECD with China remaining a minor importer. Our view would turn more bullish if OECD demand recovers more rapidly, China increases imports and new capacity additions are delayed. Conversely, a slower upturn in OECD demand and China reverting to exports would be bearish for our outlook. After rebounding rapidly to record highs earlier this year, aluminium inventories stabilized once again in March.

LME aluminium price and inventories
(weekly data)
5000 000 4000 500 4000 000 3000 500 3000 000 2000 500 2000 000 1000 500 1000 000 500 000 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis) 30 50 35 20 30 00 25 70 20 50 25 20 20 00 15 70 10 50 15 20 10 00

Copper
• • Our main scenario involves a significant supply shortage until at least the end of 2012. Demand weakness with rising stocks could send copper lower although we would regard such a move as temporary as buyers would return en masse below $ 9000/t. Our view would turn more bullish on supply disruptions while stalling OECD recovery or indications of a Chinese hard landing would make it more bearish. Geopolitical risk is currently elevated due to potential nationalization threats in Peru, a major copper exporter. Market concerns are growing that Chinese demand may have been overestimated with market price predictions beginning to diverge.

LME copper price and inventories
(weekly data)
1000 000 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 600 00 500 50 500 00 100 400 100 200 100 000 800 00 600 00 400 00 200 00 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 400 50 400 00 300 50 300 00 200 50 200 00 100 50 100 00 50 00 0 L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis) 100 00 90 00 80 00 70 00 60 00 50 00 40 00 30 00 20 00 10 00 100 10

• • •

Nickel
• • • • We hold negative short and long term market view due to a currently well balanced market in combination with a bearish long term production capacity outlook. Technology risk involved in switching from sulphide to oxide ores represents a limited upside risk. Longer term production and capital costs are likely to drive the nickel price towards $ 20000/t Nickel inventories have decreased since mid-January on temporary supply disruptions.

LME nickel price and inventories
(weekly data)
100 800 100 600 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis)

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

8

Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
Zinc Zin c
• • • The zinc market remains oversupplied with little prospect of relief until 2012. However, Japanese reconstruction demand slightly improves the long term outlook. Due to demand being skewed towards infrastructure we would become more bullish on indications of increasing government spending, although conversely reduced support packages would lead us to take a more bearish view. Zinc inventories increased sharply in March to near 2004 highs, a post mid-1990 high.

LME zinc price and inventories
(weekly data)
900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 10 30 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis) 700 00 600 00 500 00 400 00 300 00 200 00 100 00 n v-0 o 8 n v-0 o 9 m j-0 a 9 se -0 p 8 m j-1 a 0 se -0 p 9 n v-1 o 0 0 ju 8 l-0 ja -0 n 9 ju 9 l-0 ja -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 m r-0 a 9 m r-1 a 0 se -1 p 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 300 30 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis) 30 300 00 00 200 40 20 200 50 50 20 200 00 00 10 100 50 50 10 100 00 00 90 00 50 0 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 50 00 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 60 00 30 00 200 10 100 80 100 50 100 20 300 00 200 70 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 0 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis) 50 00 40 50 40 00 30 50 30 00 20 50 20 00 10 50 10 00 50 0

Steel
• • • • The Japanese earthquake is bearish short term but will be a bullish element later due to reconstruction demand. The demand development in the US and EU is promising but there is still a lot of free smelter capacity. Steel producers doubt that the demand growth rate will hold up in Q2-11 and Q3-11. Miners are more optimistic. Iron ore prices are now rebounding from a March low of $163.6/t as Chinese iron ore stocks are getting critically low and restocking is kicking in. Coking coal supply chain disruptions keeps prices for metallurgical coal elevated with risk mainly to the upside.

LME steel billet price and inventories
(weekly data)
900 00 800 00

LME lead price and inventories
(weekly data)
300 000 250 700 200 500 250 200 200 000 150 700 100 500 150 200 100 000 700 50 500 00 200 50 0 L E in e to (t, le a M v n ris ft xis) L Ep M rice ($ rig t a /t, h xis)

LME tin price and inventories
(weekly data)
40 400 00 00 30 300 50 50

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

9

Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
Aluminium futures curve
(LME, $/t)
27 85 25 80 22 85 20 80 27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 o 3 kt-1 o 4 kt-1 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 a r-1 p 3 a r-1 p 4 a r-1 p 5 ja -1 n 2 ja -1 n 3 ja -1 n 4 ja -1 n 5 ju 1 l-1 ju 2 l-1 ju 3 l-1 ju 4 l-1 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

curve Copper futures curve
(LME, $/t)
110 00 100 00 90 90 90 80 90 70 90 60 90 50 90 40 90 30 90 20 90 10 90 00 80 90 80 80 80 70 80 60 80 50 80 40 o 1 kt-1 a r-1 p 1 ju 1 l-1

1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

o 2 kt-1

o 3 kt-1

o 4 kt-1

a r-1 p 2

a r-1 p 3

a r-1 p 4

Nickel futures curve
(LME, $/t)
250 90 200 90 250 80 200 80 250 70 200 70 250 60 200 60 250 50 200 50 250 40 200 40 250 30 200 30 250 20 ju 1 l-1 ju 2 l-1 ju 3 l-1 ju 4 l-1 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 o 3 kt-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 2 ja -1 n 3 ja -1 n 4 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 a r-1 p 3 a r-1 p 4 a r-1 p 5

Zinc futures curve
(LME, $/t)
27 55 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1 20 50 27 45 25 40 22 45 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 20 40 27 35 25 30 ju 1 l-1 ju 2 l-1 ju 3 l-1 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 o 3 kt-1 ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 2 ja -1 n 3 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 a r-1 p 3 a r-1 p 4 ja -1 n 5 ju -1 n 2 a r-1 p 5 ju 2 l-1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1 25 50 22 55

Lead futures curve
(LME, $/t)
27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 20 50 27 45 25 40 22 45 20 40 27 35 25 30 ju 1 l-1 ju 2 l-1 ju 3 l-1 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 o 3 kt-1 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 a r-1 p 3 ja -1 n 2 ja -1 n 3

Tin futures curve
(LME, $/t)
340 20 320 20 300 20 380 10 360 10 340 10 320 10 300 10 380 00 360 00 340 00 320 00 300 00 280 90 260 90 240 90 m j-1 a 1 o 4 kt-1 ju 1 l-1 o 1 kt-1 a r-1 p 5 a r-1 p 1 ja -1 n 5 se -1 p 1 ju -1 n 1 ag 1 u -1

1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

n v-1 o 1

fe -1 b 2

ju 4 l-1

m r-1 a 2

a r-1 p 4

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

m j-1 a 2

ja -1 n 4

d c-1 e 1

ja -1 n 2

a r-1 p 2

10

a r-1 p 5

ja -1 n 2

ja -1 n 3

ja -1 n 4

ja -1 n 5

ju 2 l-1

ju 3 l-1

ju 4 l-1

Commodities Monthly

Precious metals
We remain both short- and long term bullish on gold. The deterioration in the European sovereign debt crisis has intensified recently with European leaders failing to deliver a credible solution to the crisis at their meeting in March. Meanwhile the MENA uprising shows no signs of abating with the civil war in Libya escalating and already negative situations in e.g. Syria, Yemen and Bahrain deteriorating further. Increasing global inflation pressures provide additional support for gold with little or no response from interest rate hikes while central banks continue to use every opportunity to inject more liquidity into the financial system. The long term outlook is also supported by increasing diversification demand, both from private investors and central banks due to high uncertainty following the recent financial crisis. “Confusion on a higher level” is the main result of the late March summit on the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the latter replacing the former from 2013. It was decided that the ESM should possess a lending capacity of € 500bn from a € 700bn capital base including € 80bn in primary capital and a further € 620bn callable. Members are required to contribute according to GDP and population share. Significantly however, countries with a low debt rating must pay their share of the € 80bn upfront, exerting further stress on already weak public finances. Another question concerns what happens if a main contributor of callable capital needs to be bailed out? Unfortunately, no agreement was reached regarding the details of the EFSF. Although it was decided that its lending capacity should be expanded from € 250bn to € 440bn it was not determined how to achieve it. A decision now looks unlikely before June. Until then the EFSF will be able to manage the situation in Portugal and provide additional funds for both Ireland and Greece but not Spain. Signs of an accelerating recovery in the US are bearish influences on the gold market. However, the positive development in the US itself is regarded as suspiciously coincident with the implementation of QE2. Some Fed officials are now even questioning the full implementation of QE2 while several market suggestions have been made declaring that QE3 is inevitable. Meanwhile US debt is increasing rapidly towards its statutory ceiling. Chinese investors are being squeezed further into precious metals due to the prohibition on overseas investment, negative real deposit rates, high valuations on domestic equities and further recent restrictions on real estate investments in order to prevent further exacerbating inflation caused by China’s housing bubble.

Precious metal prices
(COMEX/NYMEX, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 ja -1 n 0

Silv r e Pla u tin m G ld o Pa d m lla iu

n v-1 o 0

fe -1 b 0

m r-1 a 0

fe -1 b 1

m r-1 a 1

o 0 kt-1

a r-1 p 0

m j-1 a 0

se -1 p 0

ag 0 u -1

d c-1 e 0

Gold to silver ratio
(front month, weekly closing)
8 8 8 4 8 0 7 6 7 2 6 8 6 4 6 0 5 6 5 2 4 8 4 4 4 0 3 6 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 C F H

Gold and currencies vs. USD last month
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 G L OD EU R J PY G BP SEK R B U N K O YT (% D ) M M (% o )

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

11

a r-1 p 1

ju -1 n 0

ja -1 n 1

ju 0 l-1

Commodities Monthly

Precious metals
Gold
• • The gold market is well supported both short- and long term by a broad range of bullish factors. However, high prices dampening jewelry demand and stimulating supply expansion are problematic as having terminated previous gold bull markets. So far, however, demand remains strong and increasing supply from mines in Russia and China is being absorbed by local consumers. Expected further dollar depreciation is bullish for gold in Q2-11. Physical gold Exchange Traded Product (ETP) holdings have stabilized at 2028 tonnes, just below record highs (2115 tonnes), after a sell-off on economic optimism in January and February.

Gold price
(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 00 21 00 21 01 20 30 Pa d m (le a lla iu ft xis) Pla u (rig t a tin m h xis) 25 00 10 80 80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 80 0 30 0 20 0 10 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 01 50 5 30 0 15 50 10 30 15 00 21 01

• •

Silver
• • • Extremely strong demand for physical investment products is driving silver prices higher. The futures curve remains in backwardation, a rare phenomenon in the precious metals market, indicating tight physical supply. Despite limited COMEX inventories, they have been lower on several previous occasions during the past decade without major bullish price action similar to that currently taking place. We consider the silver rally excessive compared to gold and expect the negative trend in the gold/silver ratio to turn around soon. Physical silver ETP holdings are once again at record highs (15373 tonnes) after falling back in early 2011.

Silver price
(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09

• •

Platinum & Palladium
• High oil prices due to the MENA uprising is having some bearish impact on auto demand expectations, a bearish factor for both metals as auto catalysts are a key application. The downturn in Japanese auto and electronics manufacturing due to the earthquake and resulting power shortages has weighed on demand while component shortage restricts auto production outside Japan. We regard the sell-off in the two metals as exaggerated and expect a short term correction higher. Physical palladium ETP holdings fell back to 68 tonnes in March while platinum continued higher to 42 tonnes.

prices Platinum and palladium prices
(NYMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
10 10 10 00 90 0

• •

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

12

Commodities Monthly

Precious metals
Gold futures curve
(COMEX, $/ozt)
10 70 15 60 10 60 15 50 10 50 15 40 10 40 15 30 10 30 a r-1 p 1 ju 1 l-1 o 1 kt-1 ja -1 n 2 a r-1 p 2 ju 2 l-1 o 2 kt-1 ja -1 n 3 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4 ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

Silver futures curve
(COMEX, $/ozt)
3 9 3 8 3 7 3 6 3 5 3 4 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 0 2 9 2 8 n v-1 o 1 n v-1 o 2 n v-1 o 3 n v-1 o 4 ag 1 u -1 ag 2 u -1 ag 3 u -1 ag 4 u -1 ag 5 u -1 m j-1 a 1 m j-1 a 2 m j-1 a 3 m j-1 a 4 m j-1 a 5 n v-1 o 5 a r-1 p 2 fe -1 b 2 fe -1 b 3 fe -1 b 4 fe -1 b 5 2 7 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

Palladium futures curve
(NYMEX, $/ozt)
80 3

Platinum futures curve
(NYMEX, $/ozt)
16 80 15 80

80 2 14 80 80 1 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1 10 80 19 70 18 70 70 7 m r-1 a 2 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 ju -1 n 1 ju -1 n 2 17 70 ju 1 l-1 o 1 kt-1 a r-1 p 1 ja -1 n 2 13 80 12 80 1 -0 -0 1 2 1 11 80 1 -0 -0 1 3 1 1 -0 -0 1 4 1

80 0 70 9

70 8

silver ETP Physical silver and gold ETP holdings
(weekly data, tonnes)
20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 n v-1 o 0 fe -1 b 0 fe -1 b 1 10 10 ag 0 u -1 m r-1 a 0 m r-1 a 1 se -1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 d c-1 e 0 a r-1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 a r-1 p 1 ju -1 n 0 ja -1 n 1 ju 0 l-1 Silv r h ld g / 1 e o in s 0 G ld h ld g o o in s

palladium ETP Physical palladium and platinum ETP holdings
(weekly data, tonnes)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 n v-1 o 0 fe b-10 ju -1 n 0 d c-1 e 0 fe b-11 2 5 ja -1 n 1 ju 0 l-1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 0 ag 0 u -1 m r-1 a 0 se -1 p 0 a r-1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 a r-1 p 1 Pa d m lla iu Platin m u

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

13

Commodities Monthly

Agriculture
We expect a general downtrend in agricultural commodity prices for the rest this year. According to all weather simulation models monitored by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the current La Niña episode will be over before the summer. If so it should result in falling sector risk premiums and facilitate upward revisions to production estimates. Our long term bearish view is partly offset in the short term by low inventories and potential further weather disturbances from the diminishing effects of La Niña as well as other normal variations. Rallies are however likely to be short lived as they would face strong headwinds from demand destruction on e.g. lower industrial use. In the longer term, weaker emerging market growth on high food prices would be a negative influence. There are several historical examples of fluctuating La Niña events becoming stronger following weaker periods. Under current circumstances a similar development could have very severe consequences. However, there are no indications of such a trend at present. Russia is likely to extend its grain export ban for several months due to relatively low wheat inventories. The current prohibition ends on June 30 and could be extended initially until October. If wheat spring planting is disturbed it may then be extended into 2012. As Russia is a major grain exporter this would have a somewhat bullish impact on the grain market. Ukraine has prolonged grain export quotas to July 1 but increased them somewhat. As the two most extreme examples of the effects of the La Niña weather rally, this year’s fundamental outlook for cotton and sugar appears much improved. The Brazilian sugar harvest has already begun to relieve very tight market inventories. Further, the production outlook is very positive with a potential record crop in Thailand, the second largest exporter after Brazil. Concerning cotton, a sharp rise in cotton acreage worldwide is expected in response to current high prices. In addition, the Chinese government has taken measures to stimulate further planting by announcing plans to rebuild strategic inventories at a guaranteed minimum price.

Grains prices
(CBOT, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 n v-1 o 0 fe -1 b 0 ju -1 n 0 ag 0 u -1 ja -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 fe -1 b 1 7 0 ja -1 n 1 ju 0 l-1 m j-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 m r-1 a 0 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 1 /1 0 1 Wet ha S yb a s o en C rn o

Year end grain inventories (days of supply)
(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)
10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 0 /0 0 1 0 /0 1 2 0 /0 2 3 0 /0 3 4 0 /0 4 5 0 /0 5 6 0 /0 6 7 0 /0 7 8 0 /0 8 9 0 /1 9 0 Wet ha So e n yb a s C rn o

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, USDA, SEB Commodity Research

14

Commodities Monthly

Agriculture
Corn
• • • • The price of corn is currently supported by tight inventories, potential US planting delays due to wet weather and strong Chinese feed demand. Ethanol demand remains strong due to high oil prices. According to last month’s USDA WASDE report, global corn ending stock estimates rose to 71.0 days supply in March, some 24% below the 10-year average. According to the USDA Prospective Planting report, 2011/12 corn acreage will increase while the Quarterly Grain Stocks report confirmed the lowest inventory level since 2007. Fundamentally, we regard prospects for corn as the strongest of the principal grains.

Corn price
(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)
80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 0 10 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00
2 010 2 010

Wheat
• • • • Dry weather on the US Great Plains continues to hamper winter crop development and could potentially delay spring planting. The extension of the Ukrainian grain export ban and the possible extension of the Russian also provide support. According to last month’s USDA WASDE report, global wheat ending stock estimates rose to 96.9 days of supply in March, some 3% above the 10-year average. According to the USDA Prospective Planting report, 2011/2012 wheat acreage will rise while the Quarterly Grain Stocks report confirmed relatively comfortable inventories. Fundamentally, we believe the outlook for wheat is the weakest of the principal grains.

Wheat price
(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)
10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 0
2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 011 2 011

Soybeans
• • • Soybean prices are supported by wet conditions in northern Brazil (delaying the harvest with potential negative effects on yield) and by strong Asian demand. According to last month’s USDA WASDE report, global wheat ending stock estimates rose to 81.4 days of supply in March, some 1% above the 10-year average. According to the USDA Prospective Planting report, a slightly lower but still near record high acreage of soybeans will be planted in 2011/2012. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report was slightly below expectations. We consider soybeans fundamentals stronger wheat’s but weaker than corn’s.

Soybean price
(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)
10 80 10 60 10 40 10 20 10 00 80 0 60 0 40 0
2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

15

21 01

Commodities Monthly

Agriculture
Corn futures curve
(CBOT, ¢/bu)
77 5 75 0 72 5 70 0 67 5 65 0 62 5 60 0 57 5 55 0 52 5 no 1 v-1 no 2 v-1 no 3 v-1 aug -11 aug -12 aug -13 aug -14 m aj-11 m aj-12 m aj-13 m aj-14 no 4 v-1 feb-12 feb-13 feb-14 50 0 775 nov-11 nov-12 750 aug-1 1 m 1 aj-1 850 825 800 11-0 2-01 11-0 3-01 11-0 4-01 1 2-0 1-0 1 1 3-0 1-0 1 1 4-0 1-0 1 875

Wheat futures curve
(CBOT, ¢/bu)
950 925 900

fe b-12

aug-1 2

m 2 aj-1

fe b-13

Soybean futures curve
(CBOT, ¢/bu)
1475 1450 1425 1400 1375 1350 1325 1300 1275 1250 1225 nov-11 nov-12 nov-13 feb-12 feb-13 1200 aug-11 m aj-11 aug-12 aug-13 m aj-12 m aj-13 11-02-01 11-03-01 11-04-01

Sugar
(NYBOT, ¢/lb)
4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 2 02 0 2 03 0 2 04 0 2 05 0 2 06 0 2 07 0 2 08 0 2 09 0 2 10 0 2 11 0

Cotton
(NYBOT, ¢/lb)
2 20 2 00 1 80 1 60 1 40 1 20 1 00 80 60 40 20 2 2 00 2 3 00 2 4 00 2 5 00 2 6 00 2 7 00 2 8 00 2 9 00 2 0 01 2 1 01

Cocoa
(NYBOT, $/t)
3 0 80 3 0 60 3 0 40 3 0 20 3 0 00 2 0 80 2 0 60 2 0 40 2 0 20 2 0 00 1 0 80 1 0 60 1 0 40 1 0 20 2 2 00 2 3 00 2 4 00 2 5 00 2 6 00 2 7 00 2 8 00 2 9 00 2 0 01 2 1 01

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

16

m 3 aj-1

Commodities Monthly

Commodity related economic indicators
EUROZONE Industrial production (%, YoY) Industrial production (%, MoM) Capacity utilization (%, sa) Manufacturing PMI Real GDP (%, YoY) Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) CPI (%, YoY) CPI (%, MoM) Consumer confidence USA Industrial production (%, YoY) Industrial production (%, MoM) Capacity utilization (%) Manufacturing PMI Real GDP (%, YoY) Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) CPI (%, MoM) CPI (%, MoM, sa) OECD Composite Leading Indicator Consumer confidence (Michigan) Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) JAPAN Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) Capacity utilization (%, sa) Manufacturing PMI Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) CPI (%, YoY) CPI (%, MoM) OECD Composite Leading Indicator Consumer confidence CHINA Industrial production (%, YoY) Manufacturing PMI Real GDP (%, YoY) CPI (%, YoY) OECD Composite Leading Indicator Consumer confidence Bank lending (%, YoY) Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) OTHER OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator Global manufacturing PMI
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current
6,2 0,0 80,0 57,5 2,0 0,3 2,4 0,4 -10,6 5,8 0,0 77,0 61,2 2,8 3,1 2,1 0,5 103,2 67,5 216 2,8 0,4 92,5 46,4 2,2 -0,3 -0,3 -0,1 104,7 40,7 14,9 53,4 9,8 4,9 101,6 99,6 17,7 23,8 103,1 55,8

Date
2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2011-03-31 2011-03-31 2010-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-03-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-03-31 2010-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2011-03-31 2011-03-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2011-03-31 2010-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-03-31 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-03-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2010-12-31 2011-01-31 2011-03-31

Previous
8,9 0,3 78,1 59,0 1,9 0,3 2,3 -0,7 -10,0 6,0 0,2 77,1 61,4 3,2 2,6 1,6 0,4 102,5 77,5 194 3,5 1,3 89,3 52,9 4,9 0,8 -0,1 -0,2 103,9 41,1 13,5 52,2 9,6 4,9 101,7 99,9 18,5 24,0 102,8 57,4

Date
2010-12-31 2010-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2010-09-30 2010-09-30 2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2011-02-28 2010-09-30 2010-09-30 2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2010-09-30 2010-09-30 2011-02-28 2011-01-31 2010-12-31 2011-01-31 2010-12-31 2011-02-28 2010-09-30 2011-01-31 2010-12-31 2011-01-31 2011-01-31 2010-09-30 2010-12-31 2011-02-28

Next
2011-04-13 2011-04-13 2011-04-26 2011-04-06 2011-04-06 2011-04-15 2011-04-15 2011-04-18

2011-04-15 2011-04-15 2011-05-02 2011-04-28 2011-04-15 2011-04-15 2011-04-15 2011-05-06 2011-04-15 2011-04-15

2011-05-19 2011-04-28

2011-04-19 2011-04-15 2011-05-01 2011-04-15 2011-04-15

17

Commodities Monthly

Performance
Closing
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) Baltic Dry Index Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) Aluminum (LME, $/t) Copper (LME, $/t) Nickel (LME, $/t) Zinc (LME, $/t) Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu)
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

YTD (%)
7,7 7,6 7,8 17,6 2,4 2,7 1,5 -15,3 18,1 25,3 6,5 -2,5 3,4 -2,6 -2,6 0,5 17,0 -4,4 0,0

1m (%)
0,7 0,7 0,6 5,1 -3,2 0,9 -1,8 20,4 8,3 2,8 0,8 -5,1 -11,0 -5,0 0,0 -0,2 1,2 -2,1 1,9

1q (%)
7,7 7,6 7,8 17,6 2,4 2,7 1,5 -15,3 18,1 25,3 6,5 -2,5 3,4 -2,6 -2,6 0,5 17,0 -4,4 0,0

1y (%)
30,3 30,1 34,0 27,4 12,8 34,7 61,2 -49,2 27,2 41,3 11,9 18,7 2,2 -0,5 -6,7 26,9 113,6 67,0 48,0

5y (%)
53,4 38,5 84,0 46,3 57,1 148,5 117,8 -39,1 62,0 80,1 6,5 73,7 67,9 -9,6 N/A 145,5 211,9 118,4 143,9

1466,57 1379,75 1746,05 1694,32 1320,09 2220,21 1995,43 1520,00 107,94 118,70 2631,00 9360,00 25600,00 2390,00 555,00 1428,10 736,00 759,50 1393,75

Major upcoming commodity events
Date
Department of Energy, US inventory data American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data CFTC, Commitment of Traders US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report OPEC, Oil Market Report Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook US Department of Agriculture, WASDE International Grains Council, Grain Market Report OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Source
www.eia.doe.gov www.api.org www.cftc.gov www.usda.gov www.oilmarketreport.com www.opec.org www.eia.doe.gov www.usda.gov www.igc.org.uk www.opec.org

Wednesdays, 16:30 CET Tuesdays, 22:30 CET Fridays, 21:30 CET Mondays, 22.00 CET April 12 April 12 April 12 April 8 April 20 June 8

Contact list
COMMODITIES
Terje Anderson RESEARCH Bjarne Schieldrop Filip Petersson SALES SWEDEN Katarina Johnsson Karin Almgren SALES NORWAY Maximilian Brodin SALES FINLAND Vesa Toropainen SALES DENMARK Peter Lauridsen TRADING Mats Hedberg

Position
Global Head of Commodities Chief analyst Strategist Corporate Institutional Corporate/Institutional Corporate/Institutional Corporate/Institutional Chief Dealer

E-mail
terje.anderson@seb.no

Phone
+47 22 82 71 03

Mobile
+47 92 61 26 76

bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no filip.petersson@seb.se katarina.johnsson@seb.se karin.almgren@seb.se maximilian.brodin@seb.no vesa.toropainen@seb.fi peter.lauridsen@seb.dk mats.hedberg@seb.se

+47 22 82 72 53 +46 8 506 230 47 +46 8 506 233 95 +46 8 506 230 51 +47 22 82 71 62 +358 9 616 286 08 +45 331 777 34 +46 8 506 230 15

+47 92 48 92 30 +46 70 996 08 84 +46 73 501 52 02 +46 73 642 31 76 +47 92 45 67 27 +358 50 597 000 6 +45 616 211 59 +46 70 462 29 78

18

Commodities Monthly

DISCLAIMER & CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”). Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents. SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

19

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